Mini 455 - Mafia in Theoville - Game Over who won?

[ChaosOmega]

vote Nekka-Lucifer

[ChaosOmega]

Random.

[ChaosOmega]

Alright, I'm here, will post my thoughts after I read over all of this.

[ChaosOmega]

Well, first,

unvote

.

Right now, the person looking most suspicious to me is YogurtBandit. For all the posts he's made, not many of them have been useful. It looks like he's trying to seem town by posting a lot.

And as for the whole Guardian-Nanook thing, I'm not sure what to make of it yet. My first thought on it is that they're both town, though.

vote: YogurtBandit

[ChaosOmega]

He's at -3 to lynch.

[ChaosOmega]

The most active players are Adel, Guardian, YB, Nanook, Dogmom and Streeflo. Between 1 and 3 of the scum must be among the remaining players.

Just because not posting could be a sign of scum doesn't mean that any of the people not posting have to be scum. Your theories are getting more and more suspicious.

[ChaosOmega]

Note the "between 1 and 3" part. Do you really believe that all 3 of the scum could be on my list of active players?

Yes.

The person who I'm most suspicious of right now is YogurtBandit, and you're saying it's inconceivable that 2 of the other people on your list could be scum as well? I'm not saying it's probable, and I do agree that some people need to post more (myself included, I've been busy the past couple days), I was just saying that it's possible.

[ChaosOmega]

Same reason as before. It just looks like you're posting a lot of fluff.

[ChaosOmega]

Out of your 35 posts, 7, 20, 21, 23, 24, and 28 have useful content.

[ChaosOmega]

In regards to whether I think YogurtBandit is a cop or not, there are 4 possible scenarios:

A. Guardian and YogurtBandit are both cops.
B. Guardian is a cop; YogurtBandit is scum.
C. YogurtBandit is a cop; Guardian is scum.
D. YogurtBandit and Guardian are scum.

I don't believe it's D, because that's very risky. I also believe Guardian is a cop. His posts have been helpful, and he seems protown. I thought breadcrumbing his role page 1 was a little strange, but he still looks town to me.

Which leaves A and B as the two most likely scenarios to me. But now I have to go into speculation, thinking about the liklihood of two cops, the way YogurtBandit's been posting, so I'm not very confident one way or the other. I still think YogurtBandit could be scum, but for now I'm going to

unvote

because there is someone else who I'm more suspicious of.

vote: Adel

Do something scummy or I will be forced to think you are scum

I was suspicious of that quote, and it has already been mentioned, but no one's commented on this quote, which you made after Nanosauromo voted for you:

Nanosauromo: a vote for me is something significant. Thanks for voting. I understand the case against me, what is the case against Nanook?

To me, that just sounds...off. Why is a vote for you significant? And then you thank him? And you understand the case against you...so does that mean you know you're acting scummy?

So explain that second quote for me.

[ChaosOmega]

ChaosOmega, I still want your thoughts on DogMom and YB.

After reading over all her posts, I think DogMom is town. Some of her posts have just been noise, but most have been helpful, including an analysis of each player. Most of the time that she came under suspicion was because of her confusion over something.

As for YogurtBandit, you still seem scummy to me. The only reason I'm not voting for you right now is because you claimed cop, and there's no real evidence to refute it.

Sometimes I think I would be better off if I just lurked.

Damnit, it didn't stop to consider how scummy that sounds. What I meant was: would it be better for town if I stopped posting for a while? It seems to me that I am generating more noise than anything else so far.

Yeah Nice cover up.

vote:Adel

You seemed real quick there to jump on the bandwagon, even after she realized what she said. And as you said,

a Bandwagon + a Scumtell = Vote

I'm not going to vote you, since I want to see your "results" on Day 2, but I think you're scum.

[ChaosOmega]

We have Adel, who posts a lot of content, and is actually useful to the town. ... so, Vote: Adel

I understand your reasoning, but saying someone is useful to the town is a weird preface to voting for them. As of right now, I think Nanosauromo and Adel are the two scummiest players, for different reasons.

Adel has been posting a lot of things that have sounded suspicious. She's also been posting a lot of things period. Nanosauromo, on the other hand, posts nowhere near as much, and a lot of his latest posts have not been very useful. Look at his last 3 posts:

And what exactly is scummy about that?

No, I honestyl don't understand why Gaurdian thinks that quote is scummy.

No, I can't. What is so suspicious about it?

Are you just faking confusion so you don't have to answer anything? I would much rather lynch scum who don't post much content then scum who post a lot of content. So I'm going to

unvote

, mainly to cause separation and make it less likely for a no-lynch to occur.

[ChaosOmega]

I agree that YogurtBandit should post his result first.

[ChaosOmega]

Seeing talk of a vig, I remembered that there was mention of a vig before. I went back to see who said it:

Here is another crazy idea I just thought of: In addition to or regular vote in the regular format we also post VigKill: Player ZZZZZ and un:Vigkill.

I thought the vig thing was a good idea, & I still do

I thought it was somewhat suspicious at the time, but maybe she was trying to get town input on who to vig without blowing her cover.

I'm going off the assumption that the mafia killed Erotomachia and the vig killed Battle Mage. So how did Adel feel towards Battle Mage?

he is using lurking as a deliberate tactic.

Always lynch the liar. The dude has posted many many posts elsewhere since he replaced into this game.

I expect to find at least two scum among YogurtBandit, Nanosauromo, ChaosOmega, and Battle Mage.

I find it odd that BM has the time to defend himself, post links, scan the thread often enough to reply to MeMe, ect... while he still doesn't have time to post an analysis of the game.

More noise along the lines of "I don't have time to post; I'm being mis-represented" doesn't help the town, and makes you look both scummy and insincere.

I see BM as possibly setting himself to drop a hammer vote.

And the kicker...

You are a liar. You said you didn't have time to post, then you posted quite a bit. you said that you would post a long analysis on Friday, now you "don't have access" and it is now Saturday.

I hoped you'd type out some magick words like "aecimagbnihititia aioivonv" that would illuminate this game and break it wide open for town. Instead we get this post from you. Acting pretty much as I had predicted. I thought the degree to which N-L was lurking was scummy. I'm glad your active behavior confirms my hunch.

How many other players found my post directed at BM regarding his vote on MeMe to be "One of the scummiest in the game?" I can think of a few I've written which are scummier.

Guardian and BM have both posted inditing me. See how Guardian's posts are really critical but are factually accurate? BM's aren't. Guardian's vote for me isn't a reason for me to think he is scum.

That would also explain why the vig didn't take out the person who got the next to most amount of votes to be lynched...Adel.

[ChaosOmega]

I thought that string looked suspicious. I'm too stupid to crack it, but I knew it wasn't random.

Anyway, so Adel claims vig. Which means one of 3 scenarios:

A) Adel is vig, Guardian is non-sane cop
B) Adel is vig, Guardian is scum
C) Adel is scum, Guardian is sane cop

I have a hard time believing C, since the coded message named the vig-kill for the night. That would take a lot of lucky guessing if you weren't the vig.

Which leaves it down to A and B. This also makes me believe that YogurtBandit is a cop. I'm not sure about the sanity, though. If Guardian was scum, saying Adel was scum would be a pretty good play. One of the most suspicious people after day 1, knowing Adel was town, he could get Adel lynched, fake sanity problems, and wouldn't have too much suspicion.

But that's just assuming he's scum. I could see a cop investigating Adel as well. So I don't know.

[ChaosOmega]

Adel is claiming that he killed BM, who was killed by a shot

We don't know who was killed by what.

A night to forget for the residents of Theoville. Cracks of thunder and death all around. The town awake to see two dead bodies, one shot in the head, the other strangled painfully to death.

Battle Mage, Vanilla Townie, Town Aligned
Erotomachia, Vanilla Townie, Town Aligned

[ChaosOmega]

I am not the vig.

Adel, if you felt that me outing you deserved a vote, why did you wait until after someone else placed a vote to do it? Before, you seemed overly casual about it:

CO: nice theory. I appreciate that you think you are saving the vig from a lynch. Also, It took a lot of work to clip all of those posts. I think I know who the vig really is, but it is impolite to go fishing for power roles. Can you turn those analytic skills on exposing who you think is scum?

So, you appreciate my efforts, and reward them with...a vote. I understand how trying to out the vig can be seen as scummy, but I don't so much have a problem with the vote as I do with the change of attitude towards it, voting me as soon as you felt you had backing from someone else.

[ChaosOmega]

Ecto was shot. BM was strangled.

It's the other way around.

[ChaosOmega]

Streeflo's case against you later was pretty compelling.

I had to go back and read this "pretty compelling" case:

CO: nice theory. I appreciate that you think you are saving the vig from a lynch. Also, It took a lot of work to clip all of those posts. I think I know who the vig really is, but it is impolite to go fishing for power roles. Can you turn those analytic skills on exposing who you think is scum?

Very nice. Vote: ChaosOmega for rolefishing.

He quoted you, made a play on words and voted me for something you said I did previously. Unless I missed something, this is the compelling case that convinced you to vote me?

[ChaosOmega]

Have to reread. Will post thoughts later today.

[ChaosOmega]

The 3 people I am most suspicious of are Guardian, Streeflo, and Jalyn.

Guardian: Breadcrumbing early is fine, but you did it multiple times in the first couple of pages. With that many, they were bound to be found sooner rather than later. Also, doing it that much that soon could be seen as you wanting someone to find it early, so you could claim cop and not have much suspicion on you in the beginning.

Reading over the second day again, I think you knew Adel was vig before I posted anything about it. When I posted it, both you and Adel played it off. It was understandable for her to do so; she wanted to cover up the fact she was vig. You, on the other hand, just wanted it to be swept under the rug so Adel could still be lynched. You said that you noticed it as well, but figured she wouldn't do that after your breadcrumbing. Also, having you later suggest that no one counter claim her has already been shown to be a bad move. As soon as that was pointed out, all you did was go "MeMe is smart, listen to her, I don't know what I'm doing". And you saying this:

me as scum breadcruming alone is silly

is pretty ridiculous. Why can't scum breadcrumb? And if that's the case, why wasn't all your doubt of Adel absolved after you noticed her breadcrumbs?

Streeflo: You seem very bandwagony. As soon as someone is seen to be suspicious, you jump on them. Right after MeMe voted for Guardian and explained why, you immediately put a FoS on him. After people mention that what I did was suspicious, you put a vote on me. After Nanook was confused about whether the game started in day or night, you voted him. And most of your votes have been followed with quick unvotes, like you don't want to seem as the reason someone got lynched. After you said that that you believe Adel is vig, you posted this:

I'm pretty sure Adel is the one who killed BM, regardless scum or vig.

I don't like that litle thing tagged on at the end. Are you trying to say you still think Adel could be scum? It was said casually, like you were just trying to plant a seed of doubt.

Jalyn: I don't have much of a case on you. While DogMom was playing, I was a little suspicious of her, but her posts had good content. When you replaced for her, though, the good content stopped coming. Maybe you replaced, saw you were scum, and decided to lay low. I know, it's a guess, but I think YagamiLight and Nanook are more innocent than you, and if Guardian's scum, that means YogurtBandit is a sane cop and MeMe is most likely town.

[ChaosOmega]

Right, I didn't want to be responsible for a no-lynch. That's why I unvoted. Because I didn't want one. As to why I didn't vote for NanoSauromo, it was because I found Adel scummier. If an Adel lynch would have garnered support near the end, I would have put my vote back on her. As it stood, NanoSauromo was going to be lynched, there wasn't a need to put a vote on him. If it was going to tie, I would have voted.

Adel, I know you're pretty much confirmed at all, but I'll be damned if you're not seeming like one of the most scummiest people in this game. A light breeze could sway your vote one way or the other. Streeflo posts something about me, and you go "uh-huh" and vote me. I defend myself, and you go "uh-huh" and unvote. Guardian provides more evidence against me, and you go "uh-huh" and put your vote back on me.

I don't post a lot because I'm new at this. I only have one completed game under my belt, and I'm still getting used to things. It doesn't help that I've been busy lately and this game goes pretty fast.

As to why I posted the Adel vig thing, it's like in poker, where you get nothing but shit hands all game, and then you finally get a good hand, and overplay it and lose everything. I saw something interesting, got excited, and went "oohhh, let's post that". Obviously, it wasn't a good idea. But it was my train of thought at the time.

I have to leave, I'll be back later tonight to post about Nanook.

[ChaosOmega]

As for why I think Nanook is innocent. The whole thing in the beginning with him outing Guardian did look suspicious, but it seemed like that it was just him being a little rusty. I can understand, because, well, I did the same thing day 2. Now, on to Guardian's analysis on Nanook:

Nanook: Before Adel claimed he was very willing to lynch her

And you weren't? So you find Nanook scummy for something that you did pretty much all game long.

and also he tried to cast doubt on both claimed cops in his recent analysis

And you're suspicious of him for providing his analysis of the game...that doesn't make sense...oh wait, it's analysis you don't agree with, therefore, he must be scum.

Also, though I do not put much stock into this, NanoS was highly suspicious of him.

Well, you said yourself that you don't put much stock into it. I can't remember NanoS providing much of a good case against him.

That, in addition to his reasons for outing me, make him also seem like not a bad choice.

Not a bad choice...so you're also saying that Nanook is not the #1 choice to be lynched. I agree.

vote: Guardian

You were suspicious of his analysis about the two claimed cops, and you act like it's a mortal sin for questioning you and YogurtBandit, when neither of you are 100% cleared.

[ChaosOmega]

I suppose claiming won't help. I'm a vanilla townie. I don't know what I can do to convince you that I'm not scum.

Well, I've posted all of my thoughts on the game. Unless there's anything else you want me to answer, I don't know what else to say.

[ChaosOmega]

And Adel wante dto save her buddy, and was waiting to think up an excuse. I honestly cant belive shes Vig.

Since there's only 2 sides, there's no SK. There were 2 kills last night. No one counter-claimed Adel. What makes you think Adel isn't the vig?

[ChaosOmega]

While I have to believe that YogurtBandit is a sane cop, him mixing up his supposed sanities and furiously arguing that Adel is not a town vig sits uneasy with me.

As for Nanook and Jalyn, I can't find anything really scummy about either of them.

Which is fine. Adel is confirmed, as is YogurtBandit. Lynching Streeflo-scum today would mean there is 1 scum in the group of me, Nanook, and Jalyn. Lynch one, have Adel vig another one, and have YogurtBandit investigate the third. Even if 2 townies die, it's still 2 to 1 in favor of town.

I'll be back later tonight.

[ChaosOmega]

I'm missing something. How did you draw that out of that post exactly?

[ChaosOmega]

Alright.

vote Streeflo

[ChaosOmega]

Hmm...I remember you saying Guardian's coded message had the letters for Nanook and Streeflo. Why would he code a message that just states the names of both his scum partners?

[ChaosOmega]

Well, he posted it before he went on vacation. Maybe he left it for his buddies in case he got lynched before he got back, saying who he wanted lynched.

I know, both Streeflo and Nanook are still alive. Maybe the mafia couldn't decipher it either. But I don't think he would put both of those names on there if they were both of his scumbuddies. It doesn't make much sense.

[ChaosOmega]

Hmm, so there are two possibilities:

1) Streeflo is a tracker, and YogurtBandit is scum.
2) Streeflo is scum, and YogurtBandit is a cop.

Adel, I wouldn't be so quick to call it a fakeclaim. But it does seem suspicious.

So you're saying that scum breadcrumbed cop, claimed cop, and then scum counter-claimed as cop? On the off-chance there actually

is

a cop, which is fairly common, what are they going to do?

But maybe you're right. They didn't do much debating on who was the cop, they pretty much went right into believing they have variant sanities. And I agree that YogurtBandit was acting really suspicious during twilight.

Well, for now, I'm going to

unvote

. We need more discussion on this.

[ChaosOmega]

You are FAR from confirmed.

How did you get it right when MeMe was innocent? If you're scum, you know everyone's alignment.

You didn't answer Jalyn's question, which I think you should.

Well, the lynch for today is either Streeflo or YogurtBandit, and I don't know which yet. However, I have a cookout to go to. Will post analysis either tonight or tomorrow.

[ChaosOmega]

vote YogurtBandit

First off, suggesting Nanook for lynch is not a good idea. We know there is one scum between you and Streeflo. One of those two should be the lynch for today.

Secondly, you posted this:

WOA, I CLAIMED MYSELF!

Nanook, outed Guardian. Liar scum.

unvote, vote Streeflo

Uh...did you actually read what he said?

When Nanook outed Guardian, he waited for counterclaims. YB seeded his own claim during this time. When no counterclaims came up, they knew there wasn't another cop, so YB revealed himself.

He said Nanook outed Guardian. In addition, you've been acting very suspiciously in general, as other people have stated.

As for Adel's question, that answered half of it. The third scum is a toss-up between Jalyn and Nanook, but I think it's Nanook. YogurtBandit was really pushing for his lynch, he might be bussing him. If he's behind a bandwagon against scum, we'll think "Oh, he must be cop". Also, Nanook hasn't posted all that much lately. I'm not really sure though, that's pretty much a guess. I'm more concerned about getting today's lynch right, though. If we can kill scum today, that will make the game a lot easier.

[ChaosOmega]

Well, I suspected you both days, but on day 3, you were of less concern over the whole Streeflo-YogurtBandit thing, which I'm still pissed about, because I had Streeflo pegged for scum day 2, and then I go against my initial thoughts to lynch Yogurt.

Anyway, you're both suspicious, but for different reasons. Nanook has posted a decent bit, but some of it has been pretty suspicious (for example, outing the cop). Jalyn has not been that suspicious, mainly because she hasn't posted much at all. Up until now. As of right now, I'm leaning towards Nanook being more scummy, but I want to hear his analysis on both of us.

The problem is, I'm going against my first instinct again. The last time I did that wasn't good. I don't know, I just suck in picking scum correctly near endgame.

Well, like I said, before I decide anything, I want to hear what Nanook has to say.

[ChaosOmega]

We can't no-lynch today. We need some more discussion to take place.

Right now, I'm leaning towards Nanook. Day 3, you said:

I don't have a pbpa yet on either Jalyn or CO due to their being a busy holiday and what not

Fair enough. But here's what you said today:

I'm not doing any sort of pbpa on these two players ...

I know that neither Jalyn or I posted that much, but if anything, it makes a pbpa easier because of the smaller number of posts to analyze.

In the same post I just quoted, you said:

Let me just say first off that I'm absolutely shocked that I'm still standing here as I was sure that Adel would've killed me off.

Why did you think that? As soon as YogurtBandit turned up town, you knew that you wouldn't be the vig target.

When YogurtBandit claimed cop, you said:

I don't find "breadcrumbing" as some call it to be as much of a pro-town thought as I do that of scum .. Not saying that I think Guardian is scum, but I find YB's reaction to Guardian's claim to be more so town-like by voting for him quickly after Guardian's claim as I too would probably do the same thing.

Alright, so you thought YogurtBandit's claim was town-like...

Then we had another cop claim from YB, which with the timing of it made me feel that he was scummy.

...and now you don't. Also, in that first quote, you seemed a little protective of Guardian. It doesn't necessarily condemn you, but it aroused my suspicion a little.

If guardian is scum, I'm just letting you know now that by killing me you are doing bad things for the town come tomorrow.

If he's town, you might as well go for it as this game is practically dead at that point anyway.

Oh, and I claim townie btw.

I just don't like how it was worded..."by killing me, you're doing bad things for the town"...that insinuates a power role. But then you say, "oh, btw guys, i'm townie lol" It just doesn't sit right with me.

[ChaosOmega]

Yeah. Nanook, if you don't post within the next day, you'll be getting my vote.

[ChaosOmega]

Your last post, you were leaning towards Jalyn. Now, you're leaning towards me. Which is fine. Except it seems your only reason for this shift is because I stopped defending you as town. Seems a little paranoid to me.

[ChaosOmega]

Vote: Nanook

We're running out of time, we have to make a choice. My gut says Jayln, but my head says Nanook. I really hope I'm not wrong.

[ChaosOmega]

So I picked all 3 scum correctly day 2, and proceed to not lynch either of them.

That blows.

Every game I've finished, I've voted for the wrong person and was endgamed.

Day 2 twilight, YogurtBandit was acting really suspicious. Factored in with the somewhat believable tracker claim, I thought he was scum.

And then Day 4, Jalyn posted a nice analysis of both players, and Nanook didn't post much of anything.

Good game scum.