Mini 480 - Boring Town Mafia *GAME OVER*

[Samruc]

Hi everyone!

Vote: Haut Boy

[Samruc]

Pressuring might not be the right word, since he probably hasn't even seen the thread. But that means he can't stop me from voting him, right? Mouahaha...

unvote, vote: 007Flash

[Samruc]

Yeah, that might be a more proper way of handling it

[Samruc]

Well, it's hard to put an absolute limit to random bandwagons, since they are supposed to be kind of... random. If they behaved the same way each game we would have absolutely nothing to talk about D1. Four votes seems okay to me, it's still -3 and we are only twelve in this game.

And I don't quite understand voting for someone just because that person has no votes. Since both Yagami and FairieLord mentioned it, do you find it scummy when a person gets no votes during D1?

[Samruc]

The spelling mistake was mine, sorry FaerieLord

And I think Daxam is getting overprotective of himself... Hope he will be there to defend me too when I need it

[Samruc]

I didn't want to be lynched from the game so I put the vote on luna.

How does that explain why you put your vote on Luna?

[Samruc]

it is the aim of the day to find suspicous characters.

And what is the aim of the night?

[Samruc]

Hm, discussion is declining - where did flash go? I think he had some things to answer.

[Samruc]

Vote Samruc.

I get the impression that he is deliberately posting without saying too much.

There are several people that need to post more, me and yourself included. I have kept my vote on flash, since I asked him a question which hasn't been answered yet. I still think his sudden apperance, voting for the wagon, is in the biggest need of an explanation so far, thus me waiting for him.

The second most interesting thing was Daxam putting flash at -2, but since I wanted pressure on flash as well, I couldn't really argue with that vote. I guess a FoS would have been more appropriate, to stay out of danger zone, but -2 is still pretty hard to quicklynch from in a mini.

/Can't do much more before flash gets back.

[Samruc]

Anyhoo, Samruc has posted, but there's not much content (last post notwithstanding, of course). At the same time, I don't see the intent in most of them.

The intent of my posts this early in the game are almost always to spur discussion in one way or another, but let's go PBP:

***

Post 5: First post, random voting as usual.

Post 20+22: First jokingly, and then a bit more seriously tries to get the game started for real by getting the last player into the game.

Post 29: Stating my opinion on random bandwagons. Intent was to show that I found FaerieLord's play overly cautious compared to what was actually going on. Then a somewhat stupid question for discussion's sake.

Post 35: Agreed, no content here except for underlining Daxam's choice of playstyle.

Post 61: Pointing out what I (still) think is a bad argument from flash, implying that "I'm happy with my vote until you answer this question".

Post 85: Quoting another shady wording. Wanted to see how Daxam would choose to answer. I know that I hav had a tendency in earliear games to elaborate too much when I make my "attacks", giving people an answer before I can see them write it in their own words. Thus the short post. I was satisfied with Daxam's quick answer, and that's why I made no more post on this matter.

Post 98: Light mass prod, after more than 24 hours of no posts. I could have made a statement on the discussions directly above, but at the time, Yagami, Faerie and Daxam already had agreed to agree on most things. One event that I skipped was Daxam putting flash at -2, which I thought was his way of following the strategy with "bandwagons for reactions" we had just explained. Looking back, I feel no different.

***

Now that I come out with all of my thoughts, is it clearer?

Also, if you find something interesting, share it with us! I would be very interested in hearing what reactions you find useful so far and in which way.

[Samruc]

No, I think he meant "mansion", and while we are waiting for a replacement, I would like to claim "estate". Counterclaim, anyone?

[Samruc]

So, what's gonna happen here?

[Samruc]

Ok, time to start poking people then.

Unvote, Vote: Inarticulation

[Samruc]

Great, there is a man with opinions

Yeah, that might be a more proper way of handling it

In that case, why wouldn’t you unvote?

You missed the smilie... There was nothing serious about this vote at this point. A page later I decided to keep my vote, because of his jumping at Luna.

A player not having a vote is a good reason to vote said player?

I think we already discussed this. *cough*whosaiduseful*cough

Everybody clap for Samruc for such a great post.

Everybody clap for Simenon for accusing/disregarding/prodding/voting the whole town at once. If you hadn't made that FoS-list I would have voted you for deliberately spreading chaos all over the place.

I’m almost entirely sure he claimed sk. I’m not going to say why I’m sure, but I have a good enough reason.

Since this is essentially your own claim, that reason would be quite interesting...

[Samruc]

I thought you would have edited your post while writing it, after finding out that (rather important) detail, but ok, that makes sense.

So... I trust the claim, but why would you out your mason partner?

[Samruc]

If we decide we trust you for now, that won't be needed, and we wouldn't need to split up the focus of a possible doc, right?

[Samruc]

Ready to do it when you are, Adam.

Sim, is this your partner claim?

I still haven't been able to decide whether this is a good tactic or not. It's not like you had a lynch mob running after you, and since we all are, in a way, claimed townies until we claim otherwise, I don't see why you should be so eager to make sure your mason claim is credible...

But ok, then. Guess it's up to you.

[Samruc]

Don't be silly. How else am I supposed to read this?

Yes, I am a mason. My mason can name himself, but if he doesn’t, I’ll out him anyway.

Ready to do it when you are, Adam.

If you think it's a good move for town to out your partner I can't stop you; I already pointed out why I think it might not be a good idea.

[Samruc]

@Hand banana. Trust me, colin is good at catching scum.

Colin who? Refer to people with their login names, goddammit! And this sentence is awkward, unless you know for sure that he is town.

[Samruc]

First of all

unvote

, since my vote for flash007 apparently was still counted.

There are several people that I would like to post more, for example heatherlou, Nanosarumo and Haut Boy, but for now I'm interested in two other guys:

Fos: Daxam

, for staying low and not commiting his vote, as we need it both to be able to know what he is thinking, and for pressuring.

And then

vote: handbanana

. Simenon is the most "confirmed" protown guy in this thread, and you won't even read what he has to say? Actually, Sim asked (twice) about a thing you haven't answered yet.

[Samruc]

If you think you missed anything, you could, you know read the thread.

[Samruc]

Ok, I'm not the one to call off this argument, since it's about whether I'm scummy or not, but we need to get the discussion going somewhere. If someone finds me scummy, then vote me.

And I want hand banana to get back here, soon.

[Samruc]

Ok, looks like we need some prods.

Nocmen, please

prod

Daxam, hand banana, Haut Boy and Nanosauromo (I even forgot he was in this game)...

I think some of Daxam's last posts are quite interesting, btw:

1. "I'm gonna unvote because I am wish to keep my voting power open."
2. "Guys, I won't be here from tuesday for a week as I'm going on a holiday. I would kinda prefer not to be replaced."
3. "Sorry I haven't been on recently, I have been buried in stuff, and haven't had much time on Mafia Scum."

Your lurking tactic couldn't be more clear - first unvote, then off to "holiday", and now you say you've been "buried in stuff"??

HoS: Daxam

[Samruc]

Oh gee, stupid me. Both of his last posts were on mondays, and I somehow didn't notice both of them were actually written on the *same* monday. I thought that week had already passed...

Ok disregard my HoS and "analysis" above.

(Thanks for prodding)

[Samruc]

Well, come on then Nano... Enlighten us!

[Samruc]

Hm, it's easy to jump in and yell "obvious", biut it's apparently harder to contribute. Nano, do you believe the mason claim? If so, who should be our next focus?

[Samruc]

Hand banana, don't you dare to disappear right before deadline...

nice going simenon.. thanks to you, not only do i have no trace of scum on page 8 (cause this thread is made of one tirade long (by you) after the other), but we now possibly have 2 masons exposed, and no one even questioned your claim.
don't get me wrong, but i really don't want to read your posts.. 2 simple reasons.
1-i know you're town, i instantly believed your predecessors' claim. i really want to get a read on other people that have unknown alignment to me, which i cannot do due to your playstyle..
2-and your scum hunting ability is really not very good (at least in my case).

so please, ask more questions than giving answers, and limit your conclusions a little (in space, not in essence).

Surprised at the lack of reactions on this. I know it has been quoted before, but I can't find another post more in need of discussing. I want hand banana to answer the questions directed at him (and I'd like the rest of you to give your opinions on him as well).

[Samruc]

Well I guess I

vote: postpone

then. 10 days should be enough to get a replacer up to speed.

[Samruc]

2: Hand banana is a horrible player. I don't know what he was doing.
3: I did a quick read, and people kept mentioning questions to banana that were unanswered. I'd like somebody to point them out so that I can answer them

I think the questions mainly concerned his "horrible play", so it wouldn't really be any point if you tried to answer them for him. Still, I'm quite unimpressed that you don't look these things up for yourself. Hand banana left this game on the rope, and I'm not giving you the benefit of doubt until you have earned it.

[Samruc]

I hate it when newbie scum flakes. >:[

?

Well, what do you think he means? Making one-character posts isn't exactly a defense, I can assure you that there are better ways to convince us to keep you in the game... You know that the player with the most votes will be lynched at deadline, right?

[Samruc]

I hate it when newbie scum flakes. >:[

He's talking about hand banana, your predecessor, leaving the game, which annoys me too since I was suspicious of him. But as I said, I could give you the benefit of doubt if you earn it... Who do you think is the most scummy so far? You mentioned Luna, but what do you think of the other players?

[Samruc]

Still think Faeren is a pretty good play (if Saturday is to be our deadline), but it's time this guy starts talking:

Unvote, Vote: Daxam

[Samruc]

Bah, that didn't work. Daxam, where are you?

I'm spending most of tomorrow on a train, and probably won't have the possibility to check in more before deadline, which bothers me a bit. Nocmen talked about pushing the deadline, but I won't count on it, so I guess I have to make up my mind here and now. It feels pretty lame, but as I have nothing to go on except my thoughts on banana (even though he has been replaced) so...

Unvote, vote: Faeren Lord of Carlisle

.

[Samruc]

Back. Hope this deadline is final, cause I think we are on the right track, maybe on both FLOC and Daxam.

Don't think Faeren's claim will be vital for my decision, but of course it would help, so FLOC, please try to get that done as soon as possible, the days are running.

@Daxam: There is nothing scummy in pointing out other people's mistakes. If you don't dare to point some fingers, people (including me) will think you are trying to look as 'good' as possible, instead of trying to find scum.

[Samruc]

12. If a deadline occurs, the player with the most votes will be lynched. If two or more players are tied for the most votes at the deadline, no lynch will occur.

There will *not* be a no-lynch at dead line, unless we wind up in a tie. Keep calm, and let us continue as long as we can.

NO more votes, Daxam is at -1 now.

[Samruc]

No need to prod, still playing. I've had a fever and will need a day or two to get going again.

Probably should take another look at D1 before I say anything, but I think Sim's list of suspects is interesting. I'm gonna check why else IH would have been a target. (On the other hand I'm a bit disappointed that both our masons were on the wrong wagon, but I can't blame anyone, we had no other suggesion for a lynch for yesterday.)

[Samruc]

I've read it all again. Going in, I was looking at Yagami and FaerieLord; going out, I'm not really wiser than before. (Yagami is the only one still casting doubt on the masons, but I can't decide if that's protown or not.)

At least I've decided that I don't believe the doc claim. FLOC would have been lynched D1 if not for this claim, so I guess that's still my position. Lynching him would be a gamble, but his (and Banana's) posts are enough for me, so

vote: Faeren Lord Of Carlisle

again.

I have only one question after my reread:

Post 181- yagamilight looks townie in this post, but has seemed a little sketch in others. I believe that him and Daxam are on different sides; one is scum, the other is town.

Do you still stand by this? I didn't see it explained why you think they are on opposing sides.

[Samruc]

Setael: Waiting another night or two might put us in very deep trouble if we keep mislynching. FLOC is by far my top suspect, so I can't really do else than vote him.

Btw, interesting post with the point system. I'll take a look at them, I think there are some points I don't agree with.

[Samruc]

FLOC: No, I don't want to lose our doctor, that's why I'm voting you.

Is Setael perhaps trying to rein in his partner?

[Samruc]

I thought I had made myself clear on that I don't believe FLOC's claim. I even said before his claim, that I "Don't think Faeren's claim will be vital for my decision". I stuck with my FLOC vote until the end of D1, and it's only logical, and in my mind well-motivated, that I go for him again. My reread did not change this decision.

I'm not impressed by his 411 either.

As for suspicions about others: I don't really have any scum vibes from other people, and am happy to focus on FLOC for now.

[Samruc]

I didn't believe you before I read back on D1 either.

You post no evidence that you're *not* lying, because there can't be any evidence, so don't try that one. Obviously me pushing you is giving results...

[Samruc]

There has to be someone else who finds FLOC scummy...

[Samruc]

No counterclaim here.

Why the wagon on FL? I don't see anyone making a case against him...

[Samruc]

Repeal deadline.

There's got to be more reasoning than "Simenon said so" to make me satisfied with a lynch.

TCS, what are your points against FL?

[Samruc]

Thing is, I don't express suspicion until I'm certain about what I'm saying.

FLoC stinks, but I'd rather not lynch the doc in case he is not lying

I suspect Haschel and Setael

And to the person speculating the whole mafia group...you need to teach me this. Day 2 catching 3 mafia!

[Samruc]

Fl, that last post was rediculous. You're at -1, and instead of defending yourself, you post some bs about...nothing. A non-content post does not a defense make.

QFT, for once... FL, at least try to give us a reason for your suspicions.

[Samruc]

I'm here. Waiting for Nano to confirm his investigations.

[Samruc]

Faeren Lord of Carlisle is Mafia, and lying about protecting Nanosauromo. Since he is Mafia, it would be a simple matter just to target someone else. This doesn't work logically for me, though, because why would Mafia leave the cop alive to finger one of them? So I don't think this scenario works, unless Nanosauromo is also Mafia.

There is a mistake in your reasoning here. If FLOC is Mafia, he lied about being a doc all the time, and as such could not "target" anyone. This doesn't mean Nano would have been a safe NK for the mafia. On the contrary, if FLOC is mafia, there would have been a big risk that the real doc (if there is one, but the mafia wouldn't know) protected Nano. So FLOC = mafia, Nano = cop is quite possible.

Assuming no false claims -- I'm not really ready to assume that yet though.
/../

FOS: YagamiLight and Samruc

, with a vote for one of the two likely to follow. (Barring further evidence I'm pretty sure they are both scum.)

First, you are not really ready to assume no false claims (not ready to believe the claims), but then suddenly you are pretty sure both me and Yagami are scum. That's a pretty big jump in two paragraphs...

And what would the "real cop" gain from waiting to bust me? If the "real cop" even exists, me being alive makes it less likely that he will get doc protection. Furthermore, he'd be letting a known (to him) scum live. If there were a "real cop," he would have busted me long before now. I am the real cop.

Nano is right, if there were another cop in this game it would be really bad play not to counterclaim. The other options are that there is no cop at all, or Nano is telling the truth.

On a sidenote, (some setup-WIFOM, but I can't resist), there are already a big number of powerroles confirmed/semiconfirmed. If the setup consists of 2 Masons, one town roleblocker (FL) and a one-shot-vig, that's already a quite powerful town. A cop+doc pair combined with this seems improbable/ridiculously hard to balance. (Not sure what roles mafia could have; a godfather feels pretty standard, but that role requires a cop to be useful, which would imply Nano is telling the truth. This is pure guessing though.)

As a summary, I find FLOC's claim improbable and his play is still scummy. I think it's time we take care of him soon.

Vote: Faeren Lord Of Carlisle

[Samruc]

There's NO logical reason for Mafia to leave a real cop alive at this point in the game.

Mafia don't make their kills unhindered, or even simply based on who is the biggest threat to them, it's also about not getting stopped by the doctor/role blockers etc.

And, if the real doctor protected Nano, then Mafia would NOT know that

You are emphasizing the wrong word - a Mafia-FLOC would not KNOW if a "real doc" would protect Nano, but of course they would have to

take that into account

.

If Nano is a cop, then yes, it's risky to let him live, but it would be a disaster to scum at this point if their NK didn't go through. Scum have a lot of people to kill if they are going to win this game, and frankly, there would have been no chance for them to make us lynch Sim, thus the NK. (The funny thing is, with these confirmed townies floating around, I can keep on being a pain in the ass for FLOC, since he has more important targets to kill.)

I agree with you though, that the investigations so far are pretty unimpressive. Nano and FLOC are still unconfirmed, and we should remember to treat them as such.

[Samruc]

Coming from you, I take that as a compliment...

[Samruc]

If Nano is the cop, with a string of bad luck, then it's certainly true that FLoC has protected him since we can all see that Nano's not dead. (I don't really buy into the "unclaimed" doctor thing, because I think

they would have claimed by now in order to identify FLoC as scum.

If they hadn't,

why would the Mafia assume there was another doctor?

) And does anyone really think the Mafia would leave a real cop alive to ID them? So if Nano is town, I think we have to assume FLoC is town as well. The other possibility seems a little farfetched.

1. Counterclaiming as a doctor is, generally speaking, a very bad play. The whole point of town having a protecting role is that Mafia shouldn't know if you exist and who you are.

2. As long as no doctor is proven dead Mafia *have* to take a doctor's protection into account. Anything else would be madness. (A doctor is probably the most common pro-town role ever.)

Additional points:
3. Mafia are the only ones who know which claims are correct.
4. A doctor always protects an unclaimed cop

***

Suppose Nano is the real cop and FLOC is scum (which you are trying to rule out, but let's assume this is the case):

3 -> Mafia know that Nano is the cop, and want to kill him.
1 -> Mafia don't know if the doc exists.
2 -> Mafia have to take the doc into account.
4 -> Mafia know there is a big risk Nano will be protected.
==================
-> Mafia don't NK Nano.

This isn't far-fetched at all.

***

Setael's plan is a good one. Nano, you heard her!

[Samruc]

We have two scenarios: all of our claims are true, in which case all we have to do is

lynch the three remaining players

for a town auto-win, or some of our claims are false, in which the situation is much trickier.

I was assuming that there were only three Mafia in this game (one of whom is dead)... but I don't know why I thought that. Is that a safe assumption?

Yes, I think it's a safe assumption. But TCS was right - with two mafia left, we can afford one mislynch, and would thus autowin (if all claims are true) by lynching the remaining three players.

Also, I'd like Samruc to weigh in with any opinions about YagamiLight

There are very few things that make me suspicious of Yagami while scrolling through his posts. There is one thing though, that might be called inconsistent in his play. Yagami has been the big sceptic in this game, doubting the claims of the masons, FLOC, and now Setael. I don't argue with that (I don't see Setael as 100% confirmed either, but I'd say it's pretty close), but I find it a little strange that he hasn't said anything about Nano's. Any comments on this, Yagami?

[Samruc]

Yes, I think it's a safe assumption. But TCS was right - with two mafia left, we can afford one mislynch, and would thus autowin (if all claims are true) by lynching the remaining three players.

I find it odd that samruc is assuming all the claims are true

You misread my post - the "safe assumption" was that there are only two mafia left. Then I tried to explain TCS's logic, which in itself assumed the claims were true. You should know by this point that I don't believe FLOC's claim...

In fact, I think you all should go back and read FLOC's posts since the claim, especially Yagami who says he gets a town feel from him.

[Samruc]

Post incoming...

(Sorry for halting the game; I've been in bed with high fever (again!), will try to get back on track)

First a thing from Yagami:

I never said I get a town feel from him

Boo, I'm getting a town feel.

***

Then on to my case against FLoC. I'll go post by post, beginning with the claim: (I think the case up to the claim is documented well enough)

sighs. Alright guys, you outed me, both for my bad play and my predecessor's. I'm the doctor.

Honest or not? That's what it comes down to...

Oap, haven't gotten around to posting. fyi, I protected simenon. I chose him because he was a mason who is an experienced town player. I agree that votes piled on Daxam far too fast, but we were on deadline...however, still, I think that we should look at those who piledrived the lynch. Let's look into them.[/table]

Then why didn't you? Let's look at who were on the wagon: (Nano, Setael, FLoC, AtA/TCS, Simenon, HeatherLou/Bookitty, IH.) Four confirmed townies, himself, Nano and Bookitty. Did he go after one of those? Nope->

I agree that FL is pretty scumtastic.

Inconsistent with above, and too short to be helpful.

Then some arguing with me:

1) why do you doubt my claim? I also think that FL is scummier than HC, but that's my gut. I don't know how I can clear myself w/o a vig.
***
2) Do you guys really want to lose our doctor? Especially waste a lynch on him? Crazy I say, crazy.
***
3) Honestly samruc, you're the scummiest guy in my eyes right now. Your only suspect is me, and you're the only one. You don't believe me, because of your mysterious "reread", and you post no evidence that I'm lying, because there is none. sir, I am NOT lying. I think that you pushing me is actually pretty scummy, and no this isn't omgus. This is you really pushing the ddoc here. Vote Samruc.

1) I doubt your claim because you are spreading suspicions in all directions without making a single case yourself.
2) This post is pointless. If we didn't believe your claim at first, this kind of reinforcing wouldn't alter that fact.
3) Suddenly I'm the scummiest one. Omgus or not, I'm not impressed.

And look who is scummy now:

Woah, I had forgotten nano was playing. I agreee with your conclusion Simenon. I agree that his non-committal and total non-content is scummy. In short, I forgot Nano existed. His content has been scummy -> non-existant, so I'm going to go ahead and

Vote nanosaurumo.

***
I agree with lynching nanoscum.

unvote, vote FL

-I did a reread, and agree with the case on him.

Ok, this was after the cop claim, so I can't say anything about him switching votes. Some reasoning would have been interesting though - FLoC, did/do you believe the cop claim?

Fl, that last post was rediculous. You're at -1, and instead of defending yourself, you post some bs about...nothing. A non-content post does not a defense make.

This is the post I like most from FLoC. It's to the point, and relevant. (I could try to make a point of the fact that his best attack hit a townie, but that would be making a tell of a non-tell; anyone can be wrong)

I protected the cop. Who did you investigate Nano?

Not surprisingly he protects the cop. Then a relevant question, not much to say about this one.

good job setael! I want to congratulate you on your awesome vig choice.

To be honest, I didn't think much about this post either, at the time. FLoC has been flying under everyone's radar pretty much since his claim, which makes it easy to forget about him, so I'm glad TCS highlighted this. FLoC's congratulations to the vig just seems like a cheap way of looking more townish without adding any content.

samruc, you seem to be thinking as scum quite a lot here, and rather convincingly.

What do you want to say with this? That it's a scumtell to put yourself in scum's shoes? Cause I agree that it *could* be a way for scum to introduce wifom-arguments into the game, but then say that. Now it just looks like you getting nervous I'm getting too close to the truth in my speculations.

the problem with setael's plan is that Nano could do some bizarre thing like your example, then claim that whatever code he used shows he planned to investigate who turns up dead. For example, setael's code, nobody could know but the person who posted it. Like this "code" qwertyuioplkjhgfdsazxcvbnmmnbvcxzasdfghjklpoiuytrewq"->repeat ad nauseum will have the name of everyone in it. Or, if he uses numbers, many different meanings can be inferred from numbers, and he could just adjust what he claims it said depending on who's killed.

No one suggested he should use qwertyuiop... as a code. I would have no problem with using the same kind of code as Setael suggested. We could even demand that he uses this very game as a basis for that code, maybe using some kind of twist to the code. (Nothing complicated - starting post counting from day 2, counting letters from end of posts or something like that. Try to crack that one as scum, or try to find a code that includes all players...) It annoys me a bit that FLoC tries to discredit this idea; I think it's quite good.

About Nano being a "clumsy" cop, killing instead of investigating:

I'd say that it's possible, but patently rediculous of the mod to do that. It's a nice trick, and really swingy. I'd believe it this game though, considering that I'm still here.

FLoC was the only one to reinfoce its possibility (Nano was the one who brought it up). Frankly, would the mod give us a setup where scum has no control over the NK? That sure sounds ridiculous to me too...

I suggest that I be investigated tonight.

Why don't you stop being lazy, and actually make us *believe* you are doc instead of waisting (from your point of view) an investigation on you...

***

So, as a summary:

* Pretty much the only reason FLoC survived D1 was the claim.
* During D2 there was some vote-jumping from FLoC, mostly with no case at all.
* Both D2 and D3 FLoC's posts have been very short and uncontributing (averaging no more than a line or two each)

I think our doc-FLoC has done pretty much nothing to deserve getting away as easily as he does, especially when most other people are contributing the way they do.

Scum? I think so.

[Samruc]

Yagami: Oh... I thought you said boo... like in, uhm, booo... (Much like I thought when you wrote "Boo, there;s not much I can do to defend against what I'm being voted for.")

And I did not put Boo as confirmed town. I said that on the Daxam wagon were four confirmed townies, and I meant the masons, IH (confirmed by death) and Setael, whom I find 99% confirmed, and will probably treat as such. Beyond these four, there were FLoC himself, Nano and Heather/Bookitty. Clearer?

Bookitty: So you don't agree with this?

Counterclaiming as a doctor is, generally speaking, a very bad play. The whole point of town having a protecting role is that Mafia shouldn't know if you exist and who you are.

[Samruc]

On the contrary, claiming doc as scum is a pretty good idea. (Provided that they need to claim at all.) The claim is completely unverifiable, it has little risk of a counterclaim, and it is sure to give you one of two things:

1) Several more days to live, or
2) Luring out the real doc.

The first one is great, but option 2 is also pretty good for scum, since they are pretty much trading a goon at L-1 for the doctor. (Unless there are two doctors - not in a mini...)

If you replace the analysis above with the word "cop", option 2 gets less tasty for scum. If the counterclaiming cop wins the trust of town, scum hasn't gained anything, rather given town a semiconfirmed cop.

***
I want FLoC to give his thoughts on Nano's claim, and explain why he thinks investigating himself is good idea.

[Samruc]

Don't forget that Mafia can have power roles too, which might balance the game somewhat... But versus {2 masons, Roleblocker, Vig, Doc, Cop} that would have to be some hairy roles, and I don't know if balancing that is possible anyway. So at least one claim

is

probably false (and you already know my opinion, i think...)

Would anyone like to comment on my case against FLoC?

[Samruc]

Well, there is no way to prove that I'm not scum, so whatever I say you will have to take at face value. But I can state my (quite simple) strategy for this game: Post my case, point out errors when I see them, and otherwise staying out of the way. (Pretty much because I don't have any information role like cop, which requires a bit more active play.)

***

To /several people/, I can see how your reasoning leads to the conclusion that lynching one of the unclaimed is the correct play, but I'm not sure where to place such a vote... I obviously don't think we should lynch me.

Bookitty is always trying to build her posts on logic which is commendable, even though I disagree with her sometimes. The subject which I keep disagreeing over with her is FLoC, and there is one thing I'd like to get a comment on:

I do not feel sure enough to vote to lynch FLoC, because if he is the doctor, we might have just killed the cop as well.

Is this your main reason not to lynch FLoC? It doesn't agree with how you see Nano in your following posts. You also said later that you think one of the claims is probably false. Then lynching FLoC-doc can't mean killing the cop as well, can it?

Yagami's posts don't always give the same straight-town feel as Bookitty's (but I could say that about everyone here). On the other hand I don't find anything incriminating in his posts either. One thing:

As for Faeren, everything comes from who he replace, HB.

Do you really find nothing scummy with FLoC? What about the things I put together in post 619?

***

The way I see it, neither Boo nor Yagami are particularly likely as scum. The possibility that both of them are scum seems

very

tiny, that's why I'll have to make the conclusion that lynching one of the unclaimeds isn't the only option.

1) If both FLoC and Nano are scum, it doesn't matter who we lynch first.
2) If FLoC is scum and Nano is the cop, then lynching FLoC doesn't affect Nano's chance of surviving.
3) If FLoC is doc and Nano is scum, then FLoC's protection is wasted on Nano.

Of course 3) is the worst case scenario if we choose to lynch FLoC, but how bad is it? We are losing his protective powers, which might or might not come to use. We are gaining definite information on the most shady player IMO. We are narrowing down the scums to (probably) Nano, and one of the three unclaimeds (UCs).

If we lynch a UC, I simply don't think that we gain as much information. FLoC will need to be confirmed one way or another before this game is over, so I

keep vote: FLoC

.

[Samruc]

FLoC: Who do you think are the two remaining scums?

[Samruc]

Bookitty, I have never endorsed the theory that Nano would be a "clumsy cop" or whatever we should call it. Nano suggested it himself, and FLoC were the only one to support it:

Hm... both people I investigated turned up dead. Maybe I'm a vig and don't know it?

I'd say that it's possible, but patently rediculous of the mod to do that. It's a nice trick, and really swingy. I'd believe it this game though, considering that I'm still here.

The post that makes me believe that FLoC and Nanosauromo can't be scumpartners:

"I have no reason to not believe nano."

As a response to this I asked FLoC this: "Who do you think are the two remaining scums?" I got no answer to that. Note that from FLoC's POV, then it *has* to be two scum in {Samruc, Bookitty, Yagami} and it would be very interesting to hear who he thinks they are.

I want to ask this question to Nano as well: Who do you think are the two remaining scums?

[Samruc]

FLoC, do you think that we have {2 masons, Roleblocker, Vig, Doc, Cop} in the setup then?

[Samruc]

Well, if FLoC doesn't want to answer that, I can do it for him:

Something doesn't quite add up. Maybe the two scummiest people alive in this game are FLoC (IMO) and Nano (in several other's opinions), and there is no way we can have {2 masons, Roleblocker, Vig, Doc, Cop} on the side of town in a mini.

This means that if we lynch both of our claimed powerroles, we will very probably catch at least one scum. If we don't find both, we will be down to a three-person endgame with one scum left, which is hard but not impossible.

If we do it the other way, and lynch one of the three unclaimed players first, we are still hoping to find one scum out of three. The difference is, that if we fail, we immediately wind up in LyLo, where we *still* could have one correct claim, and we don't know which one. What speaks for this plan is that we possibly get one more investigation, but my counterpoint is that any actions based on Nano's investigations will be tainted anyway by the "is he cop or not"-wifom.

So, my conclusion is, if we suppose that one of the claims actually is false, which I do, then I think the correct play is to lynch the claimees, in whatever order we find them most scummy. It might be standard play to keep claimed cops and docs as long as possible, but I think this case is an exception.

[Samruc]

Let me analyze Setael's plan:

D3: We lynch an unclaimed. Remains: {2 confirmed, 2 claimed, 2 unclaimed}.
- If the lynched one is scum, we should have pretty much won the game.
- If not:

N3: FLoC protects a confirmed, Nano investigates an unclaimed.
- Who will the mafia kill? Let's just suppose they manage to kill a confirmed. (Which is probably WCS.)
=> Remains: {1 confirmed, 2 claimed, 1 unclaimed, 1 investigated}

D4 (LyLo):
- If the investigation shows guilty, we will have to choose between Nano and the investigated. Not a fun choice to make at LyLo, though if it comes down to Nano vs Bookitty, (or Nano vs me), I would surely dismiss the investigation and vote Nano.
- If investigation shows innocent, Setael's plan is to lynch Nano anyway. Here is the important thing: If Nano turns up town, his investigation won't help us,

since we just lost by lynching him.

And if Nano turns up scum, his investigation is worthless anyway...

Sure, this is the worst case in Setael's plan, but I don't think it's too unlikely to wind up in this position.

***

So what would happen if we lynch (is anyone surprised that I try this...) FLoC?

D3: Lynch FLoC. Remains: {2 confirmed, 1 claimed, 3 unclaimed}
- If FLoC is scum, we should have great chances here too.
- If not:

N3: Scum kills Nano? Possible, but that requires that both FLoC and Nano were telling the truth, which I think is very unlikely. So let's say scum kill a confirmed.
Remains: {1 confirmed, 1 claimed, 3 unclaimed}

D4: We lynch Nano. Both of them *can't* be telling the truth => We find a scum.

N4: Scum kills the second confirmed.
Remains: {3 unconfirmed}

D5: Endgame with three unconfirmed = We are back to the question: Lynching Samruc, Boo or Yagami.

The difference is, and I think it's a big positive: We wait with the difficult choice

as long as possible

, and hopefully we won't have to make it at all, because we already found out FLoC and Nano were scum.

***
As you can see, my plan depends on the assumption that at least one of FLoC and Nano is lying. If you are ready to make that assumption, I think my plan is the optimal play.

(I just realised that my plan is almost equivalent to lynching Nano first and then FLoC. It all comes down to who you think is the most probable scum of the two of them)

[Samruc]

But what happens if

you're both guilty?

That's right - your plan wins the game for scum.

[Samruc]

Well, if I believed both of them were lying, I wouldn't need to do any analysis My plan rests on the assumption that *at least* one of the claimed is lying, which I find highly likely.

I urge everyone that believe in this to vote for one of the claimed; alternatively, show me if there exists a better plan.

[Samruc]

I don't have any criticism to make of your arguments or I'd have made it already.

I would suppose this to apply to my arguments as well, though they clearly disagree with Bookitty's, so...

I made a try in an earlier post to show why it would be a good idea to lynch one of the claiming players, if you think that at least one of them is lying, but no one really commented on it.

In fact this applies

to everyone who thinks at least one of the claims are a lie:

Do you or do you not agree with my theory that lynching the claimed ones is the best strategy?

[Samruc]

Bah. This is annoying. I had hoped we'd get a replacement who agreed with me...

The "If we go to night"-summary:

The cop investigates one of the

unclaimed

. No one else.
The doc protects one of the

confirmed

. Either Setael or TCS is fine with me.

[Samruc]

I thought I had made it clear what I personally think of FLoC's claim. It doesn't matter if FLoC is scum or not, he should be "protecting" a confirmed townie anyway.

[Samruc]

Actually Bookitty is correct. Lynching FLoC is not the play for today, for two reasons. The first one is already mentioned; that in case of a mislynch we will still have a guaranteed townie in the endgame.

The second reason is that the chances of FLoC being scum is slightly lowered (in my opinion) after finding out that Yagami was scum. Nano seems like a more probable partner. (At some point during D3, I even had a slight feeling that Bookitty might have been FLoC's partner with the way she opposed to what was "clearly the best lynch" in my eyes...)

I think he was counting on you investigating him as the godfather.

What makes you think so? I could have been counting on it if I as godfather had *bussed* Yagami, but if I managed to lynch FLoC I should have counted on Yagami being investigated, right? Which actually makes more sense, because then I could have chosen not to "believe" Nano...

***
So who is the lynch today? Since I don't believe in lynching FLoC, I can't just put on the auotpilot anymore... but of course pete d is out of question, and I obviously don't want to lynch myself.

I am still of the opinion that one of the claims is false, as I don't suspect Bookitty much. This means I will probably vote Nano. But there is one important difference from yesterday - now at least one of the claims have to *true* (counting on there only being one scum left).

The question is, could we gain info from letting Nano live? By lynching Bookitty, we could get into a scenario where everyone has been investigated and/or mason confirmed, which might give us something more to go on. The problem is, since we don't know how to treat Nano's results, I'm not sure if this will be of any advantage.

Since this might come down to how pete will act in the endgame, I am very interested in hearing what he thinks about this.

[Samruc]

Vote: Nano

Discuss...

[Samruc]

So who is the lynch today? Since I don't believe in lynching FLoC, I can't just put on the auotpilot anymore... but of course pete d is out of question, and I obviously don't want to lynch myself.

I am still of the opinion that one of the claims is false, as I don't suspect Bookitty much. This means I will probably vote Nano.

There is not much more to say, really. My top suspect is still FLoC, but keeping him alive means you will make it till endgame, and there *is* a reasonable chance Nano is scum.

[Samruc]

Bah. Go town...

[Samruc]

Without Setael, I don't think we'd have won.

QFT. Great game! Will post some thoughts when I get home.