Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[The Fonz]

Vote: Farside22

ZOMG, she's scum with Dick Dastardly!

[The Fonz]

Because his name comes before me.

Well? Does it?

This demands an answer.

Also, a word of note: I don't think speculating on who killed either victim is particularly useful. CKD was one of the most experienced players here, anyone could have looked up his record and decided he was worth getting rid of. I usually random NK as scum for precisely the reason that town is likely to tie themselves in WIFOMy knots wondering who had motive to do it.

I particularly dislike this post:

ok in open 50 CKD was the Vig. He had a nightkillofone of the mafia randomly. He said after the game was abandoned that he learned it was not always a good idea that the Vig kill N0. If I learned anything, I'd say one or more of our mafia are refugees of that game and didn't want to deal with the possibility that he was vig again- long odds but he was lucky and was a pretty smart player.

I really don't understand this. Why would someone nk on the small random possibility he was a vig again?

Besides, even if the decision was made by someone who'd played with him before, it only takes one member of the scumteam to suggest a kill- and one scum amongst all of those who'd previously played with CKD is no better ratio than four amongst everyone, I don't think.

This reminds me of a game where LML died N0, and someone suggested something along the lines of... 'It was either an experienced player who'd played with him before, or a newbie who looked up his record and found out he was a good player.'

Basically, I think law of averages dictates there probably is at least one person who's played with CKD before amongst the scum. But I don't see how this suggests anything useful that the town should do.

[The Fonz]

Hmm...

Given Farside22's comment and SixAces' response let me state as emphatically as possible that we do not need counterclaims to either of these two claims, and in fact they would be useless, as the first post points out that both these roles could have 0-2 owners.

I agree with that. At this point one of the two of them is lying that I have no doubt about.

YOU THINK!

In a game where all cops are sane, OF COURSE one of them is lying. So you're not actually saying anything.

I'm a

vote: Six Aces

. Jesse's claim is just atrocious play if he's mafia, whilst claiming doc makes perfect sense for a scum trying to say anything to stay alive.

[The Fonz]

Well, as the Burger King once said, "Have it your way."
Just want to wish you guess good luck, sense it seems your really going to go through with this. Good Bye Cruel World! Hopefully not though. Come on guys are you seriously going to believe him. I bet he is sitting back in his comfy little chair laughing his head off about how easy it was to start a bandwagon over a false-claim like that. But it doesn't look like it matters now, because I'm at -1 so the next person who reads the thread is going to hammer me.

If you're not scum, he's hardly laughing, since he's going down tomorrow.

[The Fonz]

I know congratulating the doctor is a scumtell, but I'm not sure about congratulating the killer... at any rate, I tip my hat to whoever offed Ryan for making an excellent choice.

Jesse, why are you alive? Am I confusing this with another game or did you not just claim cop?

Trying to suggest the survival of a cop is scummy when the strong possibility exists of one or more docs- scummy.

[The Fonz]

Trying to suggest the survival of a cop is scummy when the strong possibility exists of one or more docs- scummy.

"Why are you still alive? Didn't you claim cop? I might have this confused with another game." != "You are scummy because you're still alive and you claimed cop." Kind of a stretch, actually.

Not at all. Put it this way, what answer could Jesse possibly have given to that question? It's clearly an insinuation that there is something suspect about JG's survival.

[The Fonz]

It's possible for a townie to think it, but why would you? It doesn't do us any good to think about, therefore why bother?

When it boils down to it, you're suspecting Shteven for thinking outside your box, which is quite sucky, TBH.

Jesse Gunn being Mafia would require the entire Day 1 situation to have been set-up, which, upon looking through the last few pages of yesterday, doesn't seem feasible. It would also require the discussion of such a tactic throughout the night, and I don't think any sane Mafia buddies would let half their team go out on a claiming, self-lynching gambit.

Jesse Gunn being an SK would allow him to use whatever tactics he wanted, fakeclaiming Cop or otherwise. The only problem with this is that there would be no way for him to know who was scum and who wasn't, unless he was just really lucky.

It is for these reasons that I am, until anything major suggests otherwise, going to discount the possiblity of JG being scum.

QFT.

Here's what I did: I woke up to find that the claimed cop had posted. In my experience, claimed cops don't often live through the night.

This is a very strange statement. In my experience, claimed cops more often than not live until there is a dead doctor.

[quote="Justin Playfair]
Phate,

Please correct me if you see a flaw in this reasoning, but randomly we have either 0, 1, or 2 doctors in town. Unless I’m mistaken in how this random choice is arrived at that means we have a 66% chance of having a doctor. For all intents and purposes we have a claimed cop in Jesse Gunn. Not only that, but we have a claimed cop whose claimed first night investigation struck scum. So, if we have a doctor I cannot think of a more logical person for the doctor to protect on night one.[/quote]

I was wondering about this actually. Is the number of doctors randomised with equal chances of 0, 1 and 2, or done in the manner of smaller C9s, ie two coin flips? (Which would mean 25% no doctors, 50% one and 25% two?)

[The Fonz]

But it was the wording that tipped me off to this fact. He doesn't say the mafia thought that he would be doctor protected, he just said, it's probable that he would have been, or something along those lines.

This, to me, seems the LESS likely of those two wordings to indicate any kind of mafia slip. If he'd have said the mafia thought he would be doc-protected, that looks more like a slip to me.

[The Fonz]

The problem with voting as mafia is 1) it solidifys your position and 2) the bold sticks out.

Can you explain this? Not 100% what you're saying here. I personally see little reason for scum *not* to bus a partner with a guilty on him. You may recall my pissed-offness in Stargate when wagoned for apparently having 'avoided' a Theo lynch, when in fact there was no point between his claim being busted and his death when I could have. Being on an obvscum wagon to me means absolutely nothing.

Opposing it is something I haven't really thought about. Anecdotally, one of my favourite newbscum tells in RTR games is being more sceptical than is justified about a claim.

[The Fonz]

*Should be haven't really figured out, not haven't thought about.

[The Fonz]

I was in one or two with Fonz and SSF, so they can talk about that.

The only other game I've been in with you was Newbie 349 where I mislynched LTGDoc... Incidentally, one of my posts was "This just screams Wishy-Washy."! So yeah, I'm going to support the meta on WishyWashyLTG...

I don't really remember you, I'm afraid. I play a lot of games. I see no reason for you to come out with something so eminently disprovable if not true, mind. Then again:

Myself, Phate, Shteven, and Oman all appear to have one vote each but I could have missed some, I did a very quick scan.

If posting from a Wii is anything like posting from an iPod Touch, I feel for you buddy.

While we're waiting for an official vote count, I'd like to figure out a few things from the vote of ysterday. I have something I'd like to address about the voting yesterday that I just figured out. Intially I thought, unless my count was inncorrect, that players piled on after Six Aces already had enough votes to be lynched. This was Shteven and SSF. Would anyone find it below the mafia to pile on after a scum buddy's fate has already been sealed in order to blend in with the town? I thought so. However, I was wrong. I thought Peers had hammered Six Aces and I made a comment about his advatar being appropriate. I was mistaken, as everyone knows that Peers voted for Jess. Oops. SO Shteven cast the deciding vote, hence my count is wrong int that regard. That does leave SSF casting a meaningless 11th vote, but it's within a reasonable time of Shteven's post. More importantly, he could have miscounted like I did. So that leaves me in the same place I was talking baout scumtells and metadefenses.

This is a ridiculously longwinded way of saying nothing at all.

Yes, there is no universal scumtell, as something which is a scumtell for one person may not be for someone else.

ZOMG! Oman is wagonning!

I'm not sure I see the case on Kab. Can someone enlighten me?

[The Fonz]

I thought i was quoting LTG directly there.

[The Fonz]

Jus

The Fonz: Are you opposed to me? Earlier I stated a thought on mafia theory and you gave a "please explain" and then you (I suppose Jokingly) did it again.

Jokingly? Hardly. I'm not 'against' you either (Well, unless you're scum, in which case by definition...) The explanation is rather simpler- when I don't understand what someone's saying, or it can be interpreted in more than one way, I ask them what they're actually getting at so I can respond to it.

[The Fonz]

*Sighs*

This game annoys me. Because this Kab wagon is pretty crappy, and at the same time probably the best thing we have to go on, and therefore I don't find anyone scummy for being on it.

[The Fonz]

Who or what is better?

[The Fonz]

Announce intention to vote Kab

Basically, I don't think town players should ever admit they'd prefer their own lynch to none. For starters, cops shouldn't, so it's giving the scum role info if you do happen to survive.

Please claim now.

[The Fonz]

And why shouldn't they admit that, Fonz? Isn't it true? A lynch is better than none in almost all circumstances.

A lynch of a power role is of considerably lesser utility than a no-lynch in almost all circumstances.

[The Fonz]

No, but my point

precisely

is that BY SAYING YOU WOULDN'T MIND YOUR OWN LYNCH, YOU (if town) ARE LETTING SCUM KNOW THAT YOU ARE NOT A POWERROLE.

Therefore, on a meta level, no-one who states that they don't mind being lynched should ever be allowed to live (because it's an action that has no possible benefit for a town player).

Vote: Kabenon007

[The Fonz]

A further corrollary is that an 'information lynch' is not likely to yield any actual information if

even the person being lynched

thinks it is the best play for town.

[The Fonz]

Well, yes, but how can anyone convincingly argue anyone involved with the wagon was scummy for doing so when even you agreed with your own lynch?

[The Fonz]

]
Jesse being SK means he'd've had to guess that Six Aces was scum. There's a 1 in 6 (lolirony) chance of that happening, and therefore a 1 in 6 chance Jesse Gunn is the SK. STATISTICAL FACT.

Hmmm. Not quite. That there is a 1/6 chance of something coming off doesn't mean there's a one in 6 chance of an SK actually trying it. If Jesse is SK, he was pulling, whilst not in immediate danger of lynch, a gambit which basically guarantees him not living to endgame. Chance of that is less than one in six.

MoD: Can you confirm the method used to determine how many cops/doctors there are?

I'm unsure on spacecase. In part, because I moved my vote to him for pretty much the same reason, though I hadn't been so vocal in opposing the lynch in the first place. In part, because I really don't see what scum has to gain from abandoning a stand in defence of a town player from which he could possibly gain some townie brownies, at a point when the guy's a nailed-on certainty to be lynched anyway.

[The Fonz]

The point is not that Kab was a bad lynch. The point is, it's hard to see how you could have genuinely believed what you said about it being a bad lynch that hurt the town, and then turn around 15 posts later and hammer the guy. What vollkan said is irrelevent. Vollkan was

never

against the lynch, so doesn't have a hypocrisy case to answer.

[The Fonz]

This sort of goes along with my last post. I believe Oman is town because he is trying to work out all of these statistical probability. I do not believe the mafia would "waste" as much space going into them.

I have to disagree with every sinew in my body here. It is

entirely

in character for scum to talk about game theory and statistical probability, because it will certainly be seen as contributing, but it doesn't really help find scum.

On the Jesse thing: Since we know there are not 'no' cops, one or two is equally likely by either system. It's nice to have the clarification, but it doesn't change one bit the fact that Jesse being a genuine cop is overwhelmingly the most likely scenario, and talking about it strikes me as a great way to distract the town.

I find it interesting, but I have never been interested in math and statistics so I'm reallly just going on the conclusions . On a hypothetical level, it could be scummy if Oman is trying to confirm Jess as a cop in order to night lynch him. That would mean Jess is mafia, though (could be SK as pointed out before).

What the hell is a night lynch? And why would Oman need to 'confirm' him to do it?

[The Fonz]

Those do strike me as hugely different situations, Shteven. Spending all day pushing one lynch in direct opposition to another, then switching to hammer the one

I'm struggling to see a reason why town spacecase would do that, certainly. But then, I can't exactly see it being a rational scumplay either. So it's likely an irrational move either way. I'm trying to get my head around potential motivations.

[The Fonz]

*then switching to hammer the one you hadn't pushed whilst the one you'd spoken in favour of is still very much viable.

[The Fonz]

Well, scum know whether Jesse is one of them. If he's not mafia, the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of him being genuine. If anything, mafia would want to cast doubt on the claim to reduce the likelihood of protection.

[The Fonz]

Oh, also, Why would I talk to Oman about it? I don't think it's necessarily a scumtell. My point is that it is not a good move, if town, to assume Oman is town just because he bandies some figures around.

[The Fonz]

oh right! i totally forgot about the 2 cops my bad

So you thought there was only 1 cop; he was dead, and we had a claimed cop. Therefore, the claimed cop was lying.

This deserves an answer. It does seem that if you genuinely thought Jesse had been caught in a lie, it would be more than 'a bit scummy' and FOS-worthy.

[The Fonz]

Guys, catchup and post tomorrow. Hectic stuff going down in other games.

[The Fonz]

I am a bit concerned that no one seems to be discussing anyone other than these two, although I myself am guilty of this. In an attempt to get something else started, I'll

FOS: The Fonz

. This is based on nothing solid - so please don't overreact. But you seem to be echoing generic townie sentiments, for example specifically in post 448 where you basically just repeated my post. Who do you think are scum, Fonz? And if it's spacecase/dahill, then for the sake of argument please include a few people who aren't top picks for the day - I haven't seen much scum hunting from you so far. If I looked closely, I'm sure I could find others, but you're up first.

Well, for starters, I'd say that the 'questioning Jesse/Cipher is just horrible play' thing is a generic town sentiment precisely because I forcefully argued for why this is the case.

But, yeah, in general, no-one's really gone out on a limb yet. My strong impression when I read that dahill post was 'If he thinks he's been caught in a lie, why the hell isn't he voting?' and I couldn't really help it if you'd said so first.

A few thoughts:

I'm with farside, its not growing too fast at all.

Oman, I think the issue that folks may have with the wagon's speed, is that 'haste makes waste.' While there's a good chance that Spacecase is scum, giving him a chance to defend himself is probably more prudent than just lynching him for lurking.

This seems to me a little strawmannish. No-one, as far as I can see, is arguing that Spacecase ought not to be given chance to defend himself.

I also find complaining about the speed of the wagon is often an argument forwarded by scum, when their buddies are being run up and they don't want to be seen directly defending. So I could very much see a spacecase/MCD connection.

As far as newbies can be scum too - certainly true. But that means you're attacking someone for being new, and the chances of them being scum are simply random (1/4 in this case, from initial setup). I'd be just as valid to single out Phate for destruction because he has a chance of being scum. I'm looking for a better-than-random lynch today. The Lynch All Lurkers is a point in your favor though Oman. I'll consider it for day 3 if we're both still here - and I'm not interested in lynching you day 2.

This isn't really the case. The point, to me, seems to be, that just being new is not in itself a defence against being scum. spacecase isn't being wagonned for being new- he's being wagonned for actions that might speak to insincerity. This is why we're trying to get him to elaborate on his thought process as much as possible, to see if we can see where he's coming from.

As I said, the better defence of spacecase, imho, is not that 'he's a newbie' but that, if scum, he didn't particularly stand to benefit from that action. It was pretty darn certain that KAb would be lynched anyway.

Also, fwiw, Oman has a history with lynch all lurkers as long as my arm.

In this post, you specifically say that I'm scumbuddies with SC. Even throw an alignment-based FoS my way. This specifically says to me 'If SC is scum, then MadCrawdad is scum.'


Now here you say basically that 'if SC is scum then MadCrawdad is town.'

Actually, it's a different contradiction. What Oman actually said was not 'IF SC is scum, MCD is town' but 'If SC is town, MCD is scum' implying that if SC is townie, you're likely scum trying to railroad. Now he's saying you might be a scumbuddy. This does seem very have cake/eat cake in terms of 'MCD is scummy either way.'

My post 473 was in reference to:

NEWBIES CAN BE SCUM TOO!! YOUR BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THIS THOUGHT THAT "NEWBIE" ALWAYS MEANS TOWN. NEW PEOPLE CAN BE SCUM ABOUT 1/3 OF THE TIME. RAWRRRRRR!

This makes it look like you're lynching someone for basically random odds.

Not to me it doesn't. It just means that newbies are as likely as anyone to be scum, and we shouldn't just give them a free pass for being new. (Yes, I hate the newbie card with a vengeance. Meta me if you like).

Also, everyone seems to have given dahill a pass on the basis of his response. I'm not sure, if the initial thing was really worth attacking, then his response was adequate. And LTG's attack on dahill's entrance was uncharacteristically forceful, to then drop it pretty much immediately... something's odd there. Not necessarily scummy-odd, but I'm not sure of the rationale.

[The Fonz]

I'm reading Fonz's response to me and it's certainly very town sounding. However, he didn't quite answer the question, which leaves me scratching my head a bit.

Because, forgive me, it's a silly question. If I had a particularly strong scumread on someone, I'd mention it, wouldn't I? I said yesterday that the reasoning behind the Kab wagon was not particularly strong, but the best we had. If I'd found a more obviously scummy-looking player, and Lord knows I looked, I'd have tried to form a wagon there. My acquiescence in the Kab wagon indicates I didn't. Since then, we've had a couple of interesting things- the spacecase switch, dahill's entry, Justin's death, and the Oman/MCD spat.

I've yet to see a good explanation of spacecase's action. Then again, it's conspicuous that no-one has explained why they think spacecase might have thought it in his interest to reverse his position like that, when the townie in question would have died anyway. Also, I'm mildly curious, if SC is scum, why didn't any competent scumbuddy try to ensure that spacecase had a reasonable case to hand before daybreak.


Also, shteven, I'd kinda like to know why we're singling me out here. No-one's really made a case against a player other than the 'obvious.' Why are you putting this to me alone?

[The Fonz]

Phate was the only other one I really thought had done anything bad yesterday, but if you re-read him as a whole, there's nothing really compelling to go on him.

Also, you're ignoring the possibility that whilst we discuss those two players, we might yet throw up something on someone else. Discussion often focusses on a coupla players for long periods of mafia games, doesn't it?

[The Fonz]

It's not the not knowing. It's the apparently believing there to be only one cop, and thus supposedly thinking that Jesse had been caught in a direct lie, and yet only FOSing him because 'Justin musta had some reason' for not counterclaiming him. That just doesn't make sense.

[The Fonz]

Because if there is only one cop, and it's not him, Jesse would have been directly lying about his role. Which is a lynch-on-sight offence.

[The Fonz]

...but not if the other cop doesn't suspect him

What the hell's whether or not Justin suspects him got to do with anything? If there is only one cop, then he was lying, then he must be lynched.

and also imagine if i did vote for jesse. everyone would have gone after me for voting the cop (after he claimed).

Not in the situation where we know there is only one cop. In fact, had that been the case, we would have lynched Jesse before you got here. If you'd voted Jesse, apparently not understanding there could be multiple cops, it'd make reasonable sense. To believe that Jesse was fakeclaiming, but it's ok because Justin didn't say anything about it, is ludicrous.

Also, it wasn't just that. It's that you jumped on the leading wagon without really appearing to think about it, or adding anything as well.

[The Fonz]

You didn't vote Jesse. You FOSed him. And no, it isn't a matter of opinion, really.

[The Fonz]

Well, it would have been. This is what I'm trying to say. I'd expect any player who believed another player to have lied about their role to vote the supposed liar there and then, not just FOS.

[The Fonz]

I'm going to be away from my computer until wednesday afternoon. Since that is just over 48hrs, I thought I'd post to let everyone know.

[The Fonz]

I'm mildly curious as to why no-one's answered my question about what they think SC's motive to act like that as scum could have been.

I'd also like him to answer Vollkan's questions. What was so scummy about Kab's, effectively, giving up that turned him from likely town to likely scum in your eyes?

[The Fonz]

I'm mildly curious as to why no-one's answered my question about what they think SC's motive to act like that as scum could have been.

Why, if SC is scum, do you think he wouldn't have acted the way he did?

I've already explained this- there's no possible benefit. The Kab lynch was the only game in town. He was going to be lynched, whether or not spacecase supported it, the deadline was looming fast, Kab was at -1 and had basically appeared to give up, and there was no other wagon available. SC stood to gain a few townie points by defending a townie.

By switching, having been adamant about Kab's innocence, he didn't further any scum objectives, since Kab would have been lynched anyway, and he just made himself look more suspicious due to the difficulty of reconciling the two positions.

Now, it's possible spacecase

is

just really dumb scum. If people believe that, I'd like them to say so. If there's some other reason you think scum SC would have chosen to hammer Kab, I'd like to hear that also.

@Oman: No, I wasn't talking about lurking. Lurking has obvious benefits for scum, though it is harder to get away with when you're the focus of everyone's attention.

[The Fonz]

Spacecase, whilst you're at it:

Come now vollkan, you have to admit that some words, some turns of phrase, cause you to feel a certain way about them. Your words merely caused a scummy sensation in the pit of my stomach. I was right last time.

Could you please clarify what you mean by the last time you were right? Also you have quite a weak argument using "feelings" as your evidence in my view.

FoS Kalenon007

OK, so here, we have two posts before saying a Kab lynch would 'only hurt us' we have SC FOSing him. In addition, we have the FOS being based on the fact that 'using feelings is a weak argument.' But SC is now justifying his Kab vote on the basis of gut?

Any chance of an explanation?

[The Fonz]

. I honestly can't believe Spacecase hasn't claimed yet, which is supporting my suspicions of his scumminess--he doesn't have to make up a fake claim until he's asked, and this gives him more time to do so.

I don't know, but I find this comment extremely scummy itself. It's not scummy AT ALL that spacecase hasn't claimed. Claims are bad things, and should not be made unless there's some huge town advantage to be gained (cop with guilty) or that player's lynch is otherwise inevitable (he's at -1 and someone is threatening to hammer, or a deadline's impending).

It probably doesn't mean anything, since spacecase is likely scum himself. But if he were to be lynched and come up town...

Agreed. The fact that spacecase hasn't been lynched yet wouldn't bother me if there were people voting for other people, or any other viable wagon forming. But no one* is voting for anyone but spacecase, and spacecase isn't lynched. Together, not a good thing.

*if I recall there's 1 non-spacecase vote.

What do you mean by 'not a good thing?' Do you think it means SC is scum, and scum are refusing to bus him? Or do you think it's a 'bad thing' because it means SC is likely innocent?

[The Fonz]

Sure, I didn't notice your post. Was reading through in chronological order, so my 'announce intention' post was directly in response to his 'I don't mind being lynched.' The second time you pointed it out, well, I guess i was caught up in the discussion I was having with Kab and didn't notice it.

I mean, spacecase's vote didn't feel like a hammer: it didn't mention that it was a hammer, Kab hadn't been given chance to claim, etc.

[The Fonz]

*Caught up in the discussion and overlooked it. Lousy repetition.

[The Fonz]

Guys, this game is stalling for a very obvious reason. Spacecase is lurking.

He's not answered half the case against him, he hasn't scumhunted all game, and now he's holding the game up unnecessarily.

Mod: prod spacecase

It appears he hasn't posted anywhere onsite for four days. If he shows up and doesn't provide one hell of an explanation, I'm voting him.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Spacecase

Claim now, please.

Claiming means to say what your role is.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Spacecase

Claim now, please.

Claiming means to say what your role is.

Do you think that putting an under-pressure who is looking disgruntled at L-1 prior to a claim is really a good idea? He's in the "critically at risk" category for self-hammers.

Only scum have a reason to self-hammer. And you should know my position on self-voting town players by now.

[The Fonz]

Just because town shouldn't self-hammer doesn't mean they don't, especially newbies. And if he is scum, why would you give him a chance to self-hammer?

1. Well yeah, they do. But the lynch -1 is indicative that I want him dead, excepting a convincing claim. I've never seen a newbie powerrole self-hammer.

2. Why would we care? It's dead scum either way.

Only scum have a reason to self-hammer. And you should know my position on self-voting town players by now.

Exactly. Only scum have a reasonable excuse to self-hammer. But unreasonable newb town also do it.

Well yes, but that's what I mean by 'my position.' Anyone who self-votes I would demand by lynched, and never waiver, because it's my most hated thing on scum. If he's going to self-vote in such a way that actually causes his death, then it just saves me the effort.

[The Fonz]

Let's lynch the guy already.

[The Fonz]

Can I just say, and this is hugely important:

Laptopgun is NOT confirmed town. Half the antitown roles in the game come up innocent under investigation. We know he is not a mafia goon, and due to this he's not getting lynched anytime soon, but he could well still be SK or GF.

[The Fonz]

And yes, suggesting that you suspect someone because a dead town player and someone with an innocent result claimed on him suspect that player is horrendously scummy.

[The Fonz]

and i never said the fact that they are confirmed means they are right or wrong. but shouldn't we trust what the cop says more than someone else? this is not me trying to "act town", it's what i genuinely believe; that cops should have more say in a lynch than other unconfirmed players.

But doesn't the likelihood of them being right or wrong influence the extent to which they can be trusted?

Fonz, yep you're right I could turn up Godfather or Serial Killer. I am neither. I doubt I need to say this, but I am not mafia either. I am 100% vanillia townie. You've spent the last day impeaching my credibility. Did you speak up when I was questioning cipher's/Jess's credibility? I don't believe so. I understand you want a lynch of someone real bad, but you might want to chill out as we could just as easily lynch a townie. And you wouldn't want that, would you?

Oh, I so have not. I've made ONE POST commenting on something you've said prior to that last clarification, and I've spent most of the last day commenting on spacecase and dahill. I've also responded to shteven more than you.

I've commented to disagree with one post you've made before, and I gave reasons there. If you don't see why it's in the town's interests to point out that dahill is wrong to refer to you as confirmed town, then I don't really know what I can say to you.

Also: why in the name of whatthefudge did you just claim vanilla townie whilst under no pressure whatsoever? That's incredibly antitown.

[The Fonz]

Then why refer to him as QUOTE UNQUOTE confirmed town?

[The Fonz]

Oh, and dahill, can you explain your unvote of spacecase?

Was his townie claim so brilliant and unexpected it cleared him in your eyes?
Was the case so weak that you'd hop off at any sign of resistance?

Yes, these are leading questions.

[The Fonz]

Why would you unvote the leading wagon, merely because it has 'slowed down?' Do you believe that it slowing down has any correlation with his alignment?

Why is Phate more suspicious than spacecase? Complete this sentence. 'Phate seems to me at this point more likely to be scum than anyone else because...'

[The Fonz]

i unvoted because it appeared no one else was going to vote him. in fact, i think some people unvoted him.

You were the first to unvote him. It had been, what, a day since his claim? He was still sitting at L-1.

[The Fonz]

In fact, only one person has unvoted SC to go to Phate. One has unvoted to vote you. One person each who was previously uncommitted has gone to you and Phate.

So we now have a situation of four for spacecase, three for Phate including dahill, and two for dahill, including phate.

I personally don't see why anyone who voted spacecase in the first place has hopped off. It's not like he's done anything town.

[The Fonz]

Well, clearly, we should lynch Spacecase.

I'd actually rather lynch you than Phate.

[The Fonz]

Phate never voted Kabenon.

[The Fonz]

It doesn't matter if it bugs me. What matters is that it's something that's obviously to the town's detriment if done by a town player, and clearly benefitting to a godfather or SK (since it makes you less likely to be NKed).

So in other games, do you just go, 'Oh, and by the way guys, I'm a doctor?'

[The Fonz]

By 'town' I assume you mean 'townie?' Do you always do it when you are vanilla?

This is basically the (old) Battle Mage defence. I know it harms the town, but I always do it, so it's ok.

[The Fonz]

In addition: Dropping scum tells doesn't mean you're scum. If you believe his claim, then the mistake that he made the claim is moot. So, Fonz: Do you think LTG is scum? If yes, why haven't you voted him for it or at least FOS'ed? If no, why are you attacking him when you believe his claim?

I love the smell of a false dichotomy in the morning.

I don't decide whether I believe someone's claim, then act accordingly. I act in a way that is likely to shed light on the truth or otherwise of someone's claim.

Yes, a very credible claimed cop has claimed an innocent on him. I believe this investigation. That's why I said we're not lynching him anytime soon.

However, claiming to be a townie when there is no need to claim at all, especially when you have an innocent investigation on you, is somewhat detrimental to that player's win condition. It makes it easier for scum to find power roles. That's why I asked LTG if he always did this when townie- because if you habitually claim for no reason when vanilla, doesn't that make it obvious when you don't that you're a power role?

However, if you ARE a serial killer or Godfather, it is beneficial to 'let slip' a townie claim. Why? Because if you're an investigated innocent, who has as much chance as anyone of being a doctor, then you're a prime target for nightkilling. If you claim townie, you become a less desireable target to the other faction.

Therefore, what Laptopgun did was scummy. Am I voting for it? No, because I'm not particularly convinced he's scum. Do I find him scummier than before he did it? Yes. Could this be worth looking at, if several days down the line, I'm dead and we still haven't found the Godfather or SK? Absolutely.

The innocent investigation makes him much less likely to be scum. His actions today make him more likely. Does the latter outweigh the former? Not yet.

In addition, even if LTG is simply a townie who made a mistake, pointing out the anti-town nature of the 'mistake' lets other players know not to do it. If no-one pointed out that what LTG did was detrimental to the town, other players might think that it's an OK thing to do as well. We have several fairly new players here.

Plus, it is of course possible that LTG is town who just didn't realise why claiming unnecessarily is harmful. In that case, pointing it out is beneficial from a 'standard of play on the site' standpoint.

I've

got a consistent meta of getting pissed at people who appeared to let slip role information unnecessarily, and by no means did i feel all those players were actually scum.

[The Fonz]

@Vollkan: I do think you're skewing the situation slightly. Lynches tend to happen (in theory) in two steps. First, people make accusations/cases on other players, and vote for who they think is scummy. Then, the town as a whole has to analyze the various targets and collectively pick one. One player cannot lynch anyone alone. Now I'm not a fan of dahill's recent play either, but after expressing your choice there does come a time when in order to lynch someone the town must start agreeing.

Whilst your first choice is at lynch -1 seems an odd time to come to that conclusion, though, doesn't it?

That said, this does not look particularly like staged distancing, and dahill does at least appear to be trying.

[The Fonz]

Mod: Prod Rigel (no posts in over a week) and Oman (no posts since sat).

[The Fonz]

Lynch all lurkers?

[The Fonz]

I've been tossing up the cases. I don't want to post some half-baked idea.

Excuse my incredulity, but how is that not lurking? Following the thread, but not posting, lest your ideas be flawed? Doesn't even a 'half-baked' idea give other players some insight into your thought process?

[The Fonz]

Okay, well then, did you read the part where I said that whether or not Spacecase is scum, he should be lynched today regardless? I don't think that going out on a limb and casting a single vote on Farside is very pro-town at this point.

Yeah, that's really scummy. Lynching for 'information' basically never works. You should always at least try to work out who's scum.

[The Fonz]

The implication of this last post is that you no longer believe spacecase is scum, yes?

[The Fonz]

To add to vollkan's last point, and my earlier one: Imagine what would happen in the scenario where a) you are town and b) Spacecase is lynched on the basis of your 'he needs to be lynched anyway so we can find out information about those on his lynch' theory and c) spacecase comes up town.

Player X: Well, I believe that player Y is scum. He put a lynch -2 vote on, and other players on the wagon strike me as believing it more.'
Player Y (actuallly is scum): Well, I believed that we had to lynch him anyway, to get information on his wagon. Rigel and player Z did too, why are you singling me out?

Player Y's argument here actually makes sense. If it acceptable to say 'well, we have to lynch him now, to find out his alignment' then you're pretty much implying that people who are on the wagon for other reasons are the most likely to be scum. This is just silly. It seems fairly obvious that people on the wagon because they've given reasons as to why they believe spacecase's behaviour is actually scummy are the most likely to be scum. But it seems to me that those players are precisely the players most likely to be engaged in actual scumhunting, so the players most likely to be town.

Which means that, if we're 'lynching for information' then the information it gives us is that the people who said we should lynch for information are the people most likely to be scum. Which means it's a pretty terrible move for a town player, and therefore a scumtell.

The 'cipher can get an additional investigation' argument is equally flawed. Cipher will be able to investigate whenever we lynch and whoever we lynch, provided we don't lynch him (and he's telling the truth, of course). There's no reason to curtail the day and reduce the amount of information we get (LOLZ, irony!) in order to do that.

All this said, having been the last onto the spacecase wagon (which is why I find it midly amusing that LTG suggested my actions today were due to 'being desperate to lynch spacecase'), I'm not planning on leaving it anytime soon. He still hasn't answered any of the case against him to my satisfaction. He hasn't claimed a role that makes me want to unvote him. He hasn't done any actual scumhunting, and the longer this goes on the more I feel like he WAS actually tactically lurking, waiting around in the hope that someone else did something really dumb or scummy and got him off the hook. Which is obviously not a tactic we should be encouraging.

@Oman: Your position appears to be, then, that Rigel's actions are particularly scummy, in terms of looking like scum trying to get a mislynch based on bad reasons, that it makes you think spacecase is now less likely to be scum? THat's not unreasonable, though see above.

[The Fonz]

I thought he meant yesterday's lynch, ie town was doomed to 'mislynch' himself in the same manner we did kab yesterday.

[The Fonz]

Zero, one, or two players received this PM:

You are a Cop. Each night, you may PM me the name of a player. I will tell you

whether that player is mafia or not.

Your results are guaranteed to be accurate. You win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

It would be, frankly, bizarre if a serial killer came up as 'mafia' on investigation, since the SK isn't mafia.

[The Fonz]

So my first post implied I read it. I later explicitly stated I didn't give it the attention it deserved. That seems pretty clear that I'm claiming I didn't give it enough thought. You should be suspicious of me because I posted too quickly without considering it. But you can't say that because of the initial post that I clearly read the post carefully when I've flat out stated that I didn't.

Yes, because we absolutely have to believe you when you say you didn't read it properly, right? Oh, wait. I think it's quite obvious MCD is suggesting that you are, in fact, lying.

I do find it very hard to believe that you said 'how can anyone not want to lynch SC having read Rigel's post?' if you yourself hadn't really read it. That statement implies that you felt Rigel's post contained compelling reasons for voting spacecase. Why would you say that if you hadn't properly read it?

That said, shouldn't we be voting a player who has:

1. FoSed someone, then in the next post claimed they were a bad lynch, then in the next post hammered them?
2. FoSed a player because using 'feelings' is apparently a weak argument, then justified a subsequent vote by
3. Done little-to-no scumhunting throughout.
4. Used craplogic (because you [vollkan] agreed with the lynch, my flip-flop can't be scummy).
5. Hasn't answered half the questions directly posed to him.
6. Claimed to be 'not trying to lurk' and didn't add anything else, therefore active lurking.
7. Has claimed townie.

[The Fonz]

*2. Then justified a subsequent vote by 'gut.'

[The Fonz]

I breadcrumbed D2 when I mentioned how surprising it was that the cop was still alive, and people jumped all over it, thinking it was a scumslip or an attempt to get the cop lynched.

Well, that's unsurprising. Docs should never breadcrumb imho.

ABWOP You really didnt need to claim it, I severely doubt we were gonna get many more votes on you.

Strongly disagree. Phate was the leading wagon, with under a week to deadline, and spacecase, another of the leading suspects, still hasn't voted, and I think it could reasonably be presumed that he would vote for anyone else if it came down to them or himself to be lynched. So the only way he could have gotten by without claiming is if enough votes had built on dahill, Rigel, or Shteven (two, two, and one votes respectively at time of claim) to surpass Phate before deadline, and this seems unlikely.

(Incidentally, I also don't get why you claimed earlier I was trying to get people to vote for Shteven. I'm not. It's fairly obvious I support a spacecase lynch, even if I' m in a dwindling minority. Was that a typo? You noted that I 'believe Spacecase should have been lynched already' in the next sentence).

Now, we're clearly not lynching Phate (since as scum or SK, he's painting a target on his back for the other faction either way) this leaves us with two vote wagons on SC, Rigel, and dahill, and a one-vote wagon on Shteven.

I'd really like to see those still not voting (SC and vollkan) to do so now, so that we know where we stand. I'd also like to see reasons, though I think SC is very unlikely to supply them for obvious, er, reasons.

Spacecase is still clearly my number one choice- I'll look through the over two to see which is my n02 should it come to that, and suggest that others do the same.

[The Fonz]

Good man.

[The Fonz]

On a re-read, it looks like you agree it's possible he's lying or he did something wrong. A little different than I first thought. I think I'm reading your posts too quickly.

Yeah, my point in that post was not that *I* think that Shteven is lying- I'm agnostic on the subject at this point- but that it isn't unreasonable for MCD to do so. Shteven's 'Look, I said my reason was this, why are you still attacking me!' thing seems obviously wrong, because we can't take it as read that Shteven is actually being honest.

I'm just pretty much calling out antitown or scummy play where I see it. I'm most confident of SC being scum, and MCD is a pretty plausible buddy. But then, MCD's case on Shteven does kinda make sense in and of itself, because in isolation Shteven's behaviour re: Rigel doesn't really feel honest or protown. It's just that, where that's one incident, spacecase has several good reasons pointing to his scumminess, and that which feels scummy about Shteven feels like railroading rather than distancing, and is therefore of much less value if SC is scum.

[The Fonz]

But since it's looking like the deadline is forcing a choice between Spacecase and Rigel at this point, I'm stating an intention to vote for Spacecase if necessary. I'm not completely sold on his guilt, but that case definitely seems to have a much better foundation than Rigel's, which seems like it's just blowing a minor mistake way out of proportion.

Vote for him then. It's deadline, and spacecase himself hasn't voted, and will presumably vote for Rigel if he shows up. LTG has pretty much said that he will break ties in favour of a Rigel rather than SC lynch. That means to get a spacecase lynch, we really need two more votes on him, and we need them fairly quickly.

[The Fonz]

Also, would you mind sharing your reasoning? Why is the spacecase wagon better than Rigel's?

[The Fonz]

Imho, there's a much better case on SC than there was on Kab. As far as I can see, if we don't lynch spacecase, we're basically saying that this town won't lynch a newbie who appears dumb, however scummy he may also be.

I don't really understand your switch though, because you said just last page you believed SC would come up town, and a Rigel vote still allows the possibility for spacecase to come and break the deadlock- and if he doesn't, you can always switch later.

But, hey, this means an SC lynch is basically certain, and that's a-ok with me.

[The Fonz]

Well, I'd like to see SC vote too. But given that it's been two weeks since he's posted, and this is the only game he's playing in, he's likely gone for good. We'll probably have to replace him even if we don't lynch him.

[The Fonz]

ABWOP You guys are basically gonna force the supposed cop to break the deadlock. This sounds like a great way to set up a case against him if the person he votes for comes up town.

Hardly. Having someone who's very likely to be town breaking the deadlock is a good thing.

[The Fonz]

Few thoughts:

If we do have a second doctor, the mafia pretty much can't win.

Obv SC coming up Godfather pretty much allays my suspicion of LTG (LTG was a fairly likely GF if SC was goon, but anyone with an innocent on them can now only be SK, assuming Cipher's truthfulness).

We have one more innocent investigation to be revealed, and MCD's mason buddy (who should stay hidden unless a) wagoned or b) all the mafia are dead). Hopefully these are different.

In addition, there's a couple of people I don't think are likely SC partners due to actions.

I don't think that leaves too many people.

[The Fonz]

dahill: Just to kick the tyres a bit:

Part of your case on Phate is that he was suspected by the dead cop and the investigated innocent.

That kind of logic would suggest suspecting yourself for attacking, and being attacked by, the dead doc, yes?

[The Fonz]

Nuh-uh. No mason claim in this situation.

Since we know we have precisely one, it's a suicidal fakeclaim unless it's LyLo, and there's also the possibility that the mason dies between now and then anyway.

If the mason's run up, sure, claim.

Nothing worse for scum than to see a carefully-orchestrated wagon break on a mason claim.

[The Fonz]

My listt of lynchables today is down to 4-5 people. I'm not really buying Dahill as scum with Spacecase, but i really need a re-read to do justice to things. Coming.

[The Fonz]

To begin with, a quick note on the Spacecase wagon. Since we have two left, the most likely configuration, imho, is one on and one off. The potential reward for scum of getting SC to night, where he was likely to be investigated, was huge. See my play in Mafia 50: ready salted,where I tie myself far too close to YogurtBandit, who had a powerful scum role, but was playing like a complete tool.

Therefore, there is likely to be at least one scum off the wagon- unsure where the other would be.

So I'll start with those not voting SC at all:

Wesaq/dahill:

Wesaq didn't do too much.

dahill's entrance I found questionable, as noted before: he seemed to think Jesse had been caught in a lie, and yet only FoSed him because 'Justin musta had some reason.'

Thinks SC/Phate are most suspicious

...but not if the other cop doesn't suspect him
and also imagine if i did vote for jesse. everyone would have gone after me for voting the cop (after he claimed).

This post still makes my head hurt. For starters, it involves an explanation of not doing something because it would get him votes. Secondly. it still doesn't explain why Justin's thoughts were at all relevant if you think someone was caught in a lie.

i wasn't using it as a second argument, i'm just saying it's possible that SC could not be lynched if something suspicious turns up.

Distancing whilst keeping options open...?

you're right we should focus attention where necessary, but i think right now that spacecase probably will be scum, and my only other suspicion is phate. we should lynch either phate or spacecase, and then depending on their role, look back on connections, etc.

@Dahill: care to do so, then?

phate is starting to look like a good vote for me, if the SC wagon is slowing down
i'm also sort of getting cold feet about SC and the two people voting for phate so far are the cop and confirmed townie

As before, SC appeals to authority 'the two people voting Phate are the cop and the 'confirmed townie.'

The interesting thing here is that dahill looks scummy at this point in the game, but it's in a way that appears to be incompatible with spacecase-scum. It looks like dahill is scummily going after spacecase with bad arguments. It's quite some achievement, actually, to go from looking like you're scum railroading someone to look like a potential buddy in the course of a day.

Then the infamous 'SC wagon is slowing' vote, which was pretty brazen, since it was only a short time since he'd been put at L-1.

Little point in lynching a claimed doctor. I'll go back to spacecase then.

Unvote: Phate, Vote: Spacecase

unvote

but i'm a little unsure about voting SC again with all of these new suspects

Let's put this in context. dahill unvoted SC in the first place because the wagon was 'slowing' and he had phate and SC close to each other in his scum rankings. Now Phate claims doc, dahill says that new leads have come up which mean he's unsure about going back to SC- and shortly after, he goes to Rigel (accusing him of being overdefensive, my opinion on which should be obvious). This to me is the biggest point against dahill. As soon as one counterwagon becomes untenable, whoops, what should happen but a new suspect come along to give an excuse not to vote spacecase.

i would vote SC but only if i know he's definitely going to be lynched
also, i'd probably be pegged as wishy washy and scummy if i switched my vote now

Words fail me with regard to the first part of this, tbh. The second is another 'i can't do this because it'll look scummy.'

also, IMO the case against Rigel is better than SC's

The case against Rigel is now BETTER than on SC?

This, imho, is extremely plausible newbie scum behaviour. Bus your partner until he's on the brink, unvote based on a crap reason, go after another player, and then scrabble around for an excuse to vote someone else when your intended victim claimed doc. It could easily have worked, too, given that I think Rigel would probably have ended up dead had SC not disappeared and turned up to vote to save himself. I would be entirely comfortable with a dahill lynch.

SSF/PDNE/LML/armlx

SSF attacks Jesse-cop day one, but I can't really blame him. His arguments are decent.

SSF is one of the pushers of the Kab wagon. Spends a lot of time talking about game theory.

Nothing in SSF's play gives me a strong read either way.

Perfection says nothing of note.

LML makes some decent observations about farside.

Plays up the likelihood of the 'clearing play-' I really don't think it's that likely.

So he makes a good-ish case on farside, then jumps off onto Rigel because Rigel defends farside.

Major pusher of the Rigel wagon. Says almost sweet FA about Spacecase.

Verdict

: There are certainly things that could be construed as scummy here, but I'm getting a 'genuine conviction' vibe. The case against him comes down to 'mistrust of Jesse/Cipher' and pushing the Rigel wagon. However, bear in mind the Rigel wagon is largely his doing- there were other, more viable counterwagons, and he wouldn't have to do the spadework himself on those. I don't think he's today's lynch.

OMAN

Let me start by saying he needs replacement. (I replaced him in another game over a week ago).

Mighty coincidental, I mean, I certainly am not holding the fact that Jessie survived against him/her, as Fonz said , lotsa possible docs here.

FoS: Phate

for that, and

IGMEOY: Jessie

for that conicendence.

.

I'm not sure what Oman's implying here: it sounds a lot like he's FOSing phate for suggesting that it might be suspicious that Jessie survives, and then IGMEOY's Jesse himself, for 'that coincidence.' Now, he might be referring to the coincidence of investigating the dead player- but it sounds more like he's flat-out contradicting himself, trying to have his cake and eat it by accusing Jesse, and Phate for accusing Jesse.

I'm going to upgrade my fos to a

Vote Phate

Mostly for his terrible vote on me (no, this is not OMGUS, he voted me for a really poor reason).

The question here is whether Oman would have voted Phate for voting anyone ELSE for that 'terrible reason.' OMGUS is inherently unprovable. It was, to be fair, a pretty bad reason, but I'm not sure if it was voteworthy.

Five straight filler posts have the alarm bells ringing.

I am against the connection between Kabenon and vollkan, I myself have versed Vollkan as scum (he shot himself). And he is a DANGEROUS scum player, not only can he hide well, the sheer weight of his words convinces a lot of players.

This somewhat gives me the impression of trying to convince an SK to off vollkan. Makes Oman more likely to be scum in my eyes, and less likely to be SK, fwiw. In fact, that entire post is horrible. Votes Kab based on someone else's reasoning, gets arsey with me asking him to explain what he meant in a previous post i found confusing, and then says the bit above.

Wow.

So thats one cop.

I'm starting to doubt our previous cop's truthery.

Scummy, floats the idea to see if anyone bites.

I don't think hammering that last wagon is a huge scumtell, Kab was crying for it, and he would've been deadlined anyway.

Initially defends SC (and somewhat strawmans the case against him...0

Jumps on SC for lurking.

I'm with farside, its not growing too fast at all.

Defends the wagon. Oman gets some townpoints here, since 'growing too fast' usually = scum defending buddy on the quiet.

Another cake/eating juxtaposition where he says in one post that MCD/SC look like buddies, and the next where he says:

That was obviously a joke. Now, I'm not OMGUSing him. I'm simply saying that last line looks like scum. The thing is, it only holds if Spacecase turns up town, so I promise you, if he comes up town, MCD gets a vote. If he comes up scum...I'll look elsewhere.

Wagon slowing.

Makes me wonder.

I might unvote.

Oman has previously attacked the idea of a connection between wagon speed and innocence/guilt of its target.

the slowing wagon makes him think that Spacecase is town and so he might unvote. But he never comes out and says this.

Meh. I assumed you guys were smart enough to realise that I don't really unvote people I think are scum.

Then says he didn't really mean it...

I haven't really been reading Rigel heavily. I'm on my mobile so I won't be reading. if anyone doesn't mind showing me why they think he is town/scum, I would love to read it over the next few days.

This is on a player HE'S ALREADY VOTING.

Little content, switching to save the GF, and clear contradictions amount to a

Vote: Oman

.

Next up, the uninvestigated non-SC defenders.

[The Fonz]

Vote: The Fonz

for not saying anything since I replaced into this game.

Please see post 910. And Fonz's post 908, and everything else. Deflection to your aggressors is not your out here, sorry scum.

It seems to me vollkan and armlx have done just fine at stringing you up by your own petard, scum.

[The Fonz]

It seems to me vollkan and armlx have done just fine at stringing you up by your own petard, scum.

And who benefits the most by killing the SK? The mafia. You have also completely ignored dcorbe's valid point of your own inactivity.

You haven't posted for days, yet manage to post 30 minutes after being accused of it?

Here we see the traditional bullshit 'hasn't posted in a while' line. Yes, Shteven, it's TOTALLY scummy of me to post in this game five minutes after I post in another game in New York, during a period of around two hours during which I caught up with about six different games, all of which I'd been neglecting for several days due to RL reasons.

Also, note that at this point in the game, town absolutely has every reason to want to lynch the claimed SK. For starters, lynching the SK in that situation would have been HUGELY beneficial to town. Plus, y'know, the fact that people claiming SK are ALMOST ALWAYS LYING. 90% of SK claims are made by mafia in my experience. That you think an SK claim should make people reconsider... words honestly fail me.

More interesting people:

The Fonz

- Unverified. He's laid low most of the game, posting enough but usually agreeing with established ideas. Look over some of his vote history:

Erm...hang on?

8th on six aces, out of 10.

Means nothing. I voted 6A with my first post after the JG claim. Voting players with claimed guilties on them really is a matter of opportunity rather than position. Are you honestly claiming it matters how early or late you vote in that scenario? Are people who quickly vote in response to a claimed guilty more likely town?

Zero official votes on day 2 - he voted for Kabenon after the 8th and final vote.

True. Though I think, y'know, my posts make clear my thinking on that day. I didn't particularly like the Kab wagon, but was unable to find a better one.

The day 3 spacecase wagon reached 5 votes as of tinvision's 3rd vote count. It remained unchanged on the fourth, fifth, and sixth vote count. On the seventh vote count, The Fonz joined. He does deserve some credit for staying there as other people began to move off the wagon, but it could also suggest he's really trying to keep his voting record to a minimum.

Keeping his vote record to a minimum? What does that even mean? And how would an anti-town player benefit from it? You're attacking me for

not

votehopping? I'll give you one thing, at least it's original.

Day four finds The Fonz making the third vote against Oman(dcorbe). He does manage to post his detailed case before Armlx followed up with his, but armlx and username beat him to voting for him.

Again, 'beat' me to voting him? Is your scumhunting (or imitation thereof) based around some kind of race to see who can vote the scum first? You may note, if I do say so myself, that my vote and case on Oman was a rather pivotal one. Firstly, the vote count was two on Oman and one on dahill (I think) at the time. And dahill was clearly scummy enough to be a viable counterwagon. After I vote, the Oman wagon starts running away, with every man and his dog piling on, using mostly my reasoning as well.

I feel the Fonz is an excellent candidate for the SK - I mostly let it slide yesterday as Dcorbe had claimed the role. He's been helpful yet unprovocative.

Again, what does helpful but unprovocative mean? I've pushed a couple of wagons pretty darn hard. I've also pointed out scummy behaviour everywhere I've seen it,

I mean, I haven't gone apeshit at anyone as of yet. But then, I've not been attacked on bullshit reasons very much, until...well... now.

Also, the kills we found this morning suggest to me that the SK is a skilled player. The mafia were most likely the ones who offed Cipher, as he's only capable of finding mafia players. The SK knew to eliminate one of the confirmed townies due to the town being the dominant faction today. Whoever the SK is, he clearly knows what's in his best interest.

Several problems here.

Numero uno, you were able to conceive of this being the optimal strategy for the SK, so at the very least, it points to you as much as to anyone else.

Secondly, forgive me, but isn't offing confirmed players an incredibly obvious strategy?

[What I would note here is that this does make the SK more likely to be amongst the unconfirmed- it strikes me that a 'confirmed' SK would want to keep plenty of investigated innocents around, in order to provide the mafia with alternative NK targets).

He could also be mafia who knows not to push for lynching his partners but also knows he needs to get on the wagons once they're headed for the gallows anyways.

Except, you know, that this doesn't fit the facts, at all. As I said, Oman's lynch was nowhere near inevitable at the point I made my case, and I see myself as one of the prime pushers of his lynch- and I continued pushing the spacecase wagon after numerous others had jumped off it, and there were multiple other possible wagons (which, indeed, would have exceeded Spacecase's in size had I switched to them).

Fonz: He doesn't match up to my previous experiences with him. His play is all over the place, as I said before. I'm getting mixed indicators from both his town and mafia play, which makes me think he's the SK

I believe you've played with me once, in a newbie game, over six months ago? What previous experience

s

? I've played differently to that, sure, but that's because I haven't gotten in a massively heated argument day one.

and the SK is probably Fonz

Echo cho cho cho....

however, fonz has a bigger wagon right now, and i don't want to throw any more wagons in at the moment, so

vote The Fonz

No really. How is anyone not voting for dahill after this post? 'I'm voting Fonz because he has the biggest wagon?' Can anyone think of a protown reason for 'not wanting to throw in any more wagons?'

I can't.

Vote: dahill

Given the arguments you make, and MCD's suspicion of Fonz, I am inclined to agree with you here. I'll reread Fonz myself to be sure, but the evidence for SK-Fonz is certainly there.

Well, I happen to think that Shteven's arguments are horrible. I'd appreciate a comment on my rebuttal. Also, note that MCD showed more suspicious of farside and dahill than me (the only thing that could be construed as suspicion of me is asking me about the Kab post-hammer vote. Not sure that this can be seen as scummy, I mean, what's the argument? Fonz as scum wanted to make sure he was seen on a town wagon?)

[The Fonz]

For the record, I'm not opposed to a dahill1 wagon, but as I'm more personally responsible for the Fonz's, I figured I'd reply to his comments.

Yes, the timing was a bit funny, but the larger problem was not posting for eight days. Lurking is a (sadly) valid scum strategy. Those who aren't here as much don't get quite as much attention. To counteract this players will intentionally hunt after lurkers, to try to balance it out. It needs countering, though. If no one mentions it then it will provide an advantage to anyone who needs to survive. Eight days is a fairly long time.

True. But I don't choose when my deadlines come. And if you want me to point out the five or so other games where my posting was similarly limited over the exact same timeframe, I will. Do you think I'm scum in all of them?

Also, an important point that was made in MD fairly recently- it's kinda scummy to accuse people of lurking, then pull the 'oh, how convenient' crap when said player does actually post. We want people to post, yes? Think about the alternative to 'convenient' posting. It's more lurking, isn't it?

90% of SK claims are made by mafia in my experience. That you think an SK claim should make people reconsider... words honestly fail me.

I'll keep this in mind - I haven't seen many (any?) SK claims in the past. I didn't mean that they should reconsider as in unvote, but I was hoping for a slightly longer discussion before he was lynched. [/quote[

Think about it this way- a claimed SK can basically never win, unless the town will auto-lose by lynching him there and then. Therefore, there's no basis for a genuine SK to claim, ever. However, some towns will let a claimed SK live for a short while, which benefits a mafioso.

I really don't see the need for 'more discussion' there- we had a confirmed anti-town role. (Indeed, the thought occurred to me that it might very well be in the interests of a genuine SK to keep a fake SK around, so people stop SK-hunting).

I'll also give you credit that the six aces wagon was fast. Perhaps I'm due to reread, as I was even later than you on the wagon. Although I had posted before you following the soft claim, I didn't want the day to end so quickly...but there's not much you can do about that. Perhaps I'm too cautious of a player.

You're missing the point. The Six Aces wagon was not just fast, it was obvious. It's a no-brainer to vote someone with a claimed guilty on them, at least if you're town. (You will get the odd foolish scum trying to defend their buddy and discredit the cop, but good scum will bus). Therefore, you can't derive anything from someone being on the wagon, or where they are on the wagon. It's a slight scumtell to be off it, the tell lessening with the experience of the player.

The SK strategy I laid out isn't that complicated to figure out, so yes plenty of players could see that.

Which means that your application of it to me personally is bunk, no? (Not to be rude, Shteven, but I do feel like you've been pushing burden of proficiency on me for a while now, with things like asking why I wasn't pushing non-obvious candidates when no-one was, for example. Of course, also note that the last couple of obvious candidates have, well, come up scum).

And I am one of them also, of course. I didn't mean to imply that only the Fonz could come up with it, just that whoever the SK is does understand their role and their chances pretty well.

Which could also be inferred from the fact that the darned SK

is still alive

. Basically, you've not shown anything that suggests that the SK is more likely to be me than pretty much anyone else.


You also have a valid point about the SK being an unconfirmed, which includes yourself and myself with several others who have been listed a few times.

In the end, I'm still suspicious of you. It is based mostly on feelings and your play style; I realize I have no smoking gun.

Let me ask you- does it not concern you that a case that you've now admitted basically comes down to gut is being embraced so utterly uncritically? No-one else has bothered to go over your arguments and see if they actually imply SK-ness or anything.

They've just basically gone 'oh yeah, Shteven's made a case against fonz, that'll do-

what he said

. There's been no analysis of your case by anyone but me. And, not to be funny, but I could make a case at least as good as yours on me on pretty much anyone bar LTG and vollkan.

So by the wonders of group think, there's this kind of tacit assent from everyone to the notion that I am the SK, and it seems like no one has actually thought about whether your case actually makes sense or not.

I don't think I over hyped the case then or now. I'm fine with lynching dahill if that's going to be the majority opinion but several people have agreed with my case and I'll stick it out a day or two more to see which wagon is more popular. At this point with only 1 mafia and 1 sk, it's pretty difficult for scum to sway wagons, so the popular wagon is likely genuine. Or at least slightly more genuine than earlier wagons with 2-3 scum on them.

I'm uncomfortable with this. A wagon is likely to be genuine just 'cos it's a wagon?

I mean, does it not seem fairly obvious that 'Fonz is the SK' is a fairly profitable line for scum to fall in behind, if they know they may well have to lynch me to win, but can't push a case on me as mafia?

[The Fonz]

Not a strawman at all. There are fewer scum, sure, but there are fewer players. We started with five of twenty, at present we have two of seven. So the scum influence is actually greater. Yes, they may not be co-ordinating a wagon, but then... that was never the case with any of the three dead scum.

Plus, the logical conclusion of your argument would hold, whoever the wagon was on and whatever the reasoning, therefore i think 'a wagon is likely genuine just because it's a wagon' is a fair assessment of what you were saying there.

[The Fonz]

Means nothing. I voted 6A with my first post after the JG claim. Voting players with claimed guilties on them really is a matter of opportunity rather than position. Are you honestly claiming it matters how early or late you vote in that scenario? Are people who quickly vote in response to a claimed guilty more likely town?

I think it less likely generally that scum will be on their partner's wagon but, once a scumclaim occurs or things otherwise look inevitable, scum want to get on asap.

Yeah... but it's a no-brainer for town to vote the scum too. And besides, if you're going to attack someone for being late on a scumwagon, wouldn't it carry a lot more weight if you yourself hadn't jumped on subsequent to the guy you're accusing?

[The Fonz]

I'm trying to argue that me being eighth out of ten on six aces actually doesn't mean anything.

[The Fonz]

Ugh! This situation is dreadful.

Right now the situation is 3:1:1.

In a mislynch, best case scenario is cross-kills; worst-case is we end up in 1:1:1.

Mmm. And crosskills are less likely when you've got a

I have a fairly strong inkling that Shteven is the SK (I will explain why shortly). Deciding between armlx and iamausername for the last mafia will likely require going through with a fine tooth comb.

[The Fonz]

*And crosskills are less likely when you have a confirmed innocent.

[The Fonz]

3-1-1.

Mislynch, 2-1-1.

Hit the other, other misses you, 1-1, game over.

Yeah, you're right. If we mislynch, we need both to hit the other. But both have the incentive to. Vollkan doesn't matter in this scenario, since a mislynch guarantees the game ends tonight.

If we lynch correctly, of course, it goes to a 2-1 endgame.

[The Fonz]

3-1-1.

Mislynch, 2-1-1.

Hit the other, other misses you, 1-1, game over.

Yeah, you're right. If we mislynch,

we

need both to hit the other. But both have the incentive to. Vollkan doesn't matter in this scenario, since a mislynch guarantees the game ends tonight.

If we lynch correctly, of course, it goes to a 2-1 endgame.

WE? Let me repeat that. WE?

Lynch Fonz please.

Yes. We. The town. The institution of which I am part. My team.

Are you seriously suggesting it is scummy of me to suggest that I am town?

[The Fonz]

It's pretty much just carrying over my reads from previous days; I thought the SK was either LTG or The Fonz yesterday, and it's clearly not LTG, so...

That's still not a reason. What is it that you think I've done

My big post on why I think Shteven is the SK is on another computer, but my basic reasons are:

1. Backing off whenever an opinion looks like it might lead to a controversy which would bring attention to him. (I have several examples of this). When I re-read overnight, I got a strong feeling of playing to survive from him).
2. The 'having read Rigel's post' thing, which indicates scumminess but not alignment with spacecase.
3. The moving off of spacecase's wagon, which indicates to me an indifference to who gets lynched, and a desire to force claims from multiple people (plus the obvious benefit of leaving a player much scummier looking than himself alive to swing in future days).
4. Frequently preaching caution, ie trying to look like the wise and rational voice of town- a cheap way to buy trust.
5. Repeatedly trying to seed the idea of someone else being the SK in the collective mind, based on pitiful evidence.
6. His uncritical acceptance of dcorbe's SK claim, which casts doubt on just how much he believed his own Fonz-SK case.
7. His desire to keep the claimed SK alive yesterday (which would have had the advantage of stopping other people from thinking about the SK, with a claimant to the role alive, and also with Shteven as dcorbe's no1 protector, meant that dcorbe's mafia kill was unlikely to head Shteven's way).

[The Fonz]

*What is it that you think I've done that is SK-ish? I suspect him because i suspected him before is no reason.

My condorcet at the moment would look like this:

1. Shteven
2. armlx
3. iam

Although the bottom two are fairly close to each other. My level of confidence in Shteven = SK strongly exceeds my confidence in armlx = mafia. Both players' predecessors did some scummy things, whilst both have felt fairly middle-of-roadish since. My instinct is that the manner in which LML pushed alternative wagons without commenting on the Spacecase one AT ALL indicates a desire to protect Spacecase without being seen to be defending him.

[The Fonz]

2. The 'having read Rigel's post' thing, which indicates scumminess but not alignment with spacecase.

How does this indicate scumminess? Basically, I agreed with Rigel's anti-spacecase post quickly because it's end goal was the same as mine: lynching spacecase.

Many arguments for why it was scummy were made at the time. In short: it indicates a carelessness, a lack of due diligence. It involves hiding behind someone else's argument. And it's a cheap way to push a wagon other than your own.

I had only skimmed the post and rushed my endorsement of it, so later I had to retract agreement with some of the individual claims (most of them not about spacecase).

If anything, it shows a overzealous desire to lynch spacecase - which is much, much more likely a town behavior than an SK concerned about his survival. There was no reason I had to push the spacecase wagon that forcefully except for my own belief that it would benefit the town.

Except there are a few things that contradict the idea that you were desperate to lynch spacecase.

Like your complaining that no-one was really talking about anyone but Spacecase or dahill.

Or your unvoting of spacecase because the wagon had 'stalled.'

I think there's something of a contradiction between the following statements:

Becoming a bit disappointed with overall activity levels in this game.

Spacecase is scum, get to it folks.

And these two:

So the 180 part holds, although there is some merit to people saying there wasn't any serious chance of the lynch not being kab. That said,

we do need to take a look at other people, and discuss everyone, but I expect I'll be voting spacecase all day unless something very significant comes up.

I am a bit concerned that no one seems to be discussing anyone other than these two, although I myself am guilty of this. In an attempt to get something else started, I'll

FOS: The Fonz

. This is based on nothing solid - so please don't overreact. But you seem to be echoing generic townie sentiments, for example specifically in post 448 where you basically just repeated my post. Who do you think are scum, Fonz? And if it's spacecase/dahill, then for the sake of argument please include a few people who aren't top picks for the day - I haven't seen much scum hunting from you so far. If I looked closely, I'm sure I could find others, but you're up first.

The 'please don't overreact' bit is part of the confrontation avoidance I was getting at earlier, btw. Basically, you express 'concern' that only Spacecase and dahill are being discussed, even though you are apparently 'desperate' to lynch spacecase. You look like you're trying to get alternative cases made, but not make them yourself, by asking me to come up with other suspects. And I maintain that there is no reason to single me out specifically here. (Also, when I get to my other computer, I've got a fair bit of evidence to hand that 'Fonz echos generic town sentiments' is complete crap, and indeed, that you've followed me more than I have you).


As well as your assertion that you 'don't like speedlynches, especially when there are incomplete cases.' Well, in your desperation to lynch spacecase, you appeared for a good period to be advocating lynching him fairly quickly off a single tell, when many of us were still trying to poke at him to get a picture of his thinking!

3. The moving off of spacecase's wagon, which indicates to me an indifference to who gets lynched, and a desire to force claims from multiple people (plus the obvious benefit of leaving a player much scummier looking than himself alive to swing in future days).

I haven't tried to specifically force claims from anyone this game - although voting does this indirectly, but that cannot be avoided.

Well, this is exactly what I'm getting at, squire. If you put someone in a position where he is the leading, or joint biggest, wagon with less than a week to go, it's very likely he's going to have to claim, isn't it? It sure as hell can be avoided- by sticking to the wagon on the player you were 'desperate' to lynch.

I pushed spacecase from the very beginning of day 3, and I went out on a limb to try to get him hung. Yes, I did vote for others after it stalled, but I was more than glad to go right back when people finally came around. How anyone can read day 3 and think that my posts show

indifference

to who was lynched is incomprehensible.

Spacecase was NEVER not the leading wagon, until your unvote and vote of Phate put phate ahead. Then, having extracted a doc claim from Phate, you returned to Spacecase. You didn't 'return because other people finally came around' you revoted because Phate claimed doc. That's the reason you cited at the time.

Stating that 'I'm comfortable with a Phate lynch too' certainly does indicate 'indifference' rather than 'going out on a limb.'

4. Frequently preaching caution, ie trying to look like the wise and rational voice of town- a cheap way to buy trust.

I don't like speed lynches, especially when I'm unconvinced of a quickly constructed case.

No-one likes speed lynches, which is why it's a cheap way to try to look town.

When major developments come along late in the wagon, I do want to collect a consensus on the developments. Perhaps in the case of dcorbe claiming SK it wasn't necessary, but at the time I thought it would help us. It was the first time I've seen an SK claim; in hindsight it was much more clear he was scum than I initially thought.

Why is consensus necessary? And indeed, it seemed to me it was fairly close to existing- we knew dcorbe was antitown at minimum, and everyone else seemed quite happy to lynch him.

5. Repeatedly trying to seed the idea of someone else being the SK in the collective mind, based on pitiful evidence.

I don't think I've ever suggested anyone was the SK in this game but you. And I just call that scum hunting.

I meant me, genius. If you can, by repeated hinting, get it into the collective mind that I'm a good SK candidate, that can help create an environment that everyone just kind of assumes it, in the absence of anyone else making an SK case. SK on the brain is also a surprisingly effective tell.

6. His uncritical acceptance of dcorbe's SK claim, which casts doubt on just how much he believed his own Fonz-SK case.

I just wanted everyone to take a second look and consider it before the day ended. New information should lead to new discussion, although I suppose in this case there wasn't as much to say as I thought there would be. I was hoping the mafia would off him for us, saving us having to use a lynch...for obvious reasons that didn't come to pass, as he was mafia himself.

Yes, and my point is, you didn't even consider the possibility that he was mafia fakeclaiming. Now, given that a) it looked like he might be lynched anyway, so it was a fairly likely desperation move from a n00b mafioso, and b) You apparently thought that I was the SK, that doesn't strike me as genuine. It does, however, make sense for an SK to keep a 'friendly' killer around for one more day.

You also suggested that I was mafia for wanting the claimed SK dead. Now, presumably, you had reason before to think I was specifically SK and not mafia. If you'd thought I were scummy in general, I'd have expected a case to that effect. So it looks a lot like cheap pointscoring to me.

7. His desire to keep the claimed SK alive yesterday (which would have had the advantage of stopping other people from thinking about the SK, with a claimant to the role alive, and also with Shteven as dcorbe's no1 protector, meant that dcorbe's mafia kill was unlikely to head Shteven's way).

Quite a misrepresentation. The SK being alive would have given us a good shot of cross kills, and we had plenty of townies alive to go after the bigger target - mafia. I was expecting the mafia to want to kill the SK, and thus lynching the SK once he was outed would be a complete waste of a lynch. Since Dcorbe lied and was actually Mafia, none of this came to pass. And both killing factions feared the town more than each other, as there was a double kill on laptopgun, our last confirmed innocent. Although Vollkan might as well be considered cop-investigated also.

Not a misreprensentation at all. I state 'Shteven as SK would have had reason for wanting to keep the fakeclaiming SK alive.' You claim that this is misrepresentation because you claim that you are town who actually has a different set of motivations. This is just... utter crap.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz

D1 - Again, not a lot to go on, thanks Jesse. "I usually random NK as scum for precisely the reason that town is likely to tie themselves in WIFOMy knots wondering who had motive to do it." And an unknown showed up dead N0. COINCIDENCE???

Lolz.

D2 - His vote on kabenon looks more like a 'policy lynch' than earnest belief that kabenon was scum. Don't like it. (It was also after the hammer had already been dropped, but Fonz didn't appear to be aware of this at the time).

You're damn right it's a policy lynch. Take a look at my record. I have never, ever, not voted for a self-voter (unless it was the RVS, obviously). I used to have a bit in my sig that read 'If you self vote as town, I will kill you. And I don't mean in the game either- I'm going to come round your house with an axe.' Or something like that. I really, really hate self-voters.

D3 - Took a long time to get on the Spacecase wagon, but this was mostly because I think he was exploring other avenues more than I've previously given him credit for, I think. Also led the charge on dahill for some issues that I picked up on later, which I'm reading as pro-town even if it turned out to be a bad lead.

Yeah, like I said at the time, I wasn't sure what scum had to gain. (Another reason I think the 'echoing generic sentiments' claim is false, since I was pretty much the only one pushing this angle at the time).

Then a few things happened. One, my re-read revealed that SC had FoSed Kab the post before he said he was a bad lynch, which was the post before he hammered him. One flip is explicable, two is far less so. Secondly, he kept on lurking in plain sight and refusing to answer questions I and others had for him, which indicated that either he didn't have a defensible thought process, or didn't want us to see it (town players should always want everyone else to get an accurate read on them, possibly excepting doctors).

I think the reaction to dcorbe's SK claim is a very useful thing to look at in trying to finger the real SK. All that The Fonz has to say about it is this: "It seems to me vollkan and armlx have done just fine at stringing you up by your own petard, scum." Possible SK motivation: he knows we're lynching mafia, which is good for him at this stage, and he's gloating. Possible townie motivation: He knows we're lynching mafia or SK, which is good for him at this stage, and he's gloating. Yeah, pretty much a null tell.

I was more kind of amused by dcorbe's hilariously bad attempt to shift suspicion onto me than anything else there.

D5 - Defends himself well against Shteven's attacks, although I think he is quite blatantly claiming more credit for the Oman wagon than he actually deserves. His vote on dahill was totally justified.

Not really. The first two votes on him were from yourself and armlx, both of whom were fellow suspects, and had reason to push an oman wagon to save yourselves. I place a third vote, at a point when I could, if i were scum, quite easily have come up with a dahill case, and put the two of them level. We then have dahill piling on the post after mine, and no-one else is ever a candidate. That's why I think my vote is significant.

Now, the Shteven stuff I promised. Firstly, I'd like to open with the following question: Who is echoing whom again?

Trying to suggest the survival of a cop is scummy when the strong possibility exists of one or more docs- scummy.

Agreed. I'd say it's most likely that he was doctor protected, and that mafia chose other targets instead of taking the chance on there being a doctor protection.

*Sighs*

This game annoys me. Because this Kab wagon is pretty crappy, and at the same time probably the best thing we have to go on, and therefore I don't find anyone scummy for being on it.

/seconded.

Fonz beat me to it, but yes, talking about statistics doesn't really indicate your alignment - just that you like/think in mathematical terms. I do it myself sometimes.

I'd agree - Cipher should claim the innocent. Especially with the godfather lynched, innocents are worth a lot more now. The only anti-town role they could be would be the SK.

Secondly, on the 'backtracking/being unoffensive' angle:

I don't find much to fault fab with on his attack on me. I think the feeling was genuine, and not scum hunting down town.

Sorry if my previous post had been confusing, armlx. I still wouldn't mind hearing a bit more on why you thought username was one of your top two suspects and what you think about him vs Oman (presumably oman is your choice after reading post 910).

Appear to trying to keep on everyone's good side.

I am a bit concerned that no one seems to be discussing anyone other than these two, although I myself am guilty of this. In an attempt to get something else started, I'll

FOS: The Fonz

. This is based on nothing solid - so please don't overreact.

Warns me not to 'overreact' ie pre-emptively discrediting any attacks I make on this post.

When he comes out with the false dichotomy on me:

In addition: Dropping scum tells doesn't mean you're scum. If you believe his claim, then the mistake that he made the claim is moot. So, Fonz: Do you think LTG is scum? If yes, why haven't you voted him for it or at least FOS'ed? If no, why are you attacking him when you believe his claim?

I explain why this is an FD, and then he comes out with:

@fonz: After I posted my question, I did realize that I should have left a bit more room for the middle ground, but you explained it rather well so I'm satisfied with that.

That's pretty much it for my notes, save the generic 'wanting more discussion' scumtells, as if Shteven is going 'oh, aren't I the most contentful.'

[The Fonz]

responses to Fonz:

Many arguments for why it [pushing spacecase hastily] was scummy were made at the time. In short: it indicates a carelessness, a lack of due diligence. It involves hiding behind someone else's argument. And it's a cheap way to push a wagon other than your own.

The spacecase wagon was started by me and I provided numerous posts with reasons for why. One hasty post shouldn't remove all that genuine effort.

Actually, you basically just provided the one reason: that the switch-to-hammer was scummy. And again, for the umpteenth time, your subsequent unvote when he was one of two leading wagons doesn't scream 'willing to fight for a spacecase lynch' to me.

No-one likes speed lynches, which is why it's a cheap way to try to look town.

Agreed - yet in this game we've already had two. One was cop-generated, which is fair enough, though. Most players seem ok with speed lynching when they're reasonably certain of guilt.

dcorbe wasn't speedlynched in my eyes, and cop guilties are a different kettle of fish altogether. In addition, the point of discussion is to work out who the scum are. Advocating continuing discussion past the point where a majority have made up their minds, for the sake of it, is not pro-town, and simply a scummy way to try to look 'pro-discussion.'

You must have missed this quote:

I feel the fonz has a significant chance of being both mafia or the Serial Killer.

No, I didn't. It's just given that all the arguments you've forwarded and all your previous mentions of suspicion of me, forgive me if you throwing in a cheap 'oh, and he might be mafia too' without any reason to try to push a lynch doesn't change my opinion.

As far as your initial point 7 and the claim of misrepresentation - From the outside perspective misrepresentation may be the wrong word. One-sided perspective, self-fulfilling prophecy (if you assume I'm the SK you'll find SK motivations when you look) or propaganda would be more accurate. I used misrepresentation because I know what my role is and my motivations were, and you misrepresented them. But from your POV, misrepresentation isn't the right word. You did however, assume I was SK and then made the case based on that assumption.

Thankyou. You admit claiming town motives, and me ascribing scummy motives, isn't misrepresentation.

And no, I didn't. I looked for behaviour which makes sense in an SK (SKs on the brain, lack of courage in convictions, general scumminess which didn't look like it suggested a link to the mafia group and so on) and found them in you.

Figured I'd break out a second post to respond to the Fonz's second post.

Breaking out all the times I've agreed with people (although you mostly selected times I agreed with you) is pretty funny. I especially liked this one:

I'd agree - Cipher should claim the innocent. Especially with the godfather lynched, innocents are worth a lot more now. The only anti-town role they could be would be the SK.

Let's see what other fun dirt I can throw on someone...say, Vollkan!

Gah. I'm dead tonight, so I might as well claim my innocent result. Any objections?

There is a small chance of a second doc, but I wouldn't risk the loss of information. Go ahead.

I'll wait a little longer to give my result, but I'll definitely call it before nightfall.

For the record, I believe that Justin's Night 1 investigation was an innocent on vollkan. This theory largely revolves around this post, in which Justin seems to be basing his case against kabenon on the presumption that vollkan is town.

Since you bring it up, I guessed precisely the same thing from that same post.

As username mentioned, he and his predecessors have been wrong on each of the three lynches. Wesaq was voting for Spacecase at the end of day 1, which I consider possible distancing.

I wasn't aware of this fact. I don't think it is voteworthy in and of itself, but you've just given me an impetus to conduct a pbp on him. I should get round to it soon.

And every one of those from day 4! I should go find lots more!

MASSIVE MISREPRESENATION FTW!

My point is not that you are scummy for sometimes agreeing with people. My point is that your claim that I 'merely echo generic townie sentiment' is utter crap, and that in fact that claim could more convincingly be made against you than me.

Let's go to the tape, shall we?

Day One: We both vote 6 Aces, based off a cop investigation.
Day two: We both express that the Kab lynch isn't particularly good, but there is nothing better, really.
Day three: You are first onto the spacecase obvwagon. I question it, and attempt to ascertain more about his thought process. Eventually, I ascertain that the combo of changing positions drastically over the course of three posts (original argument) plus his unwillingness to scumhunt and generally evasive answers convince me that he is, in fact, the right lynch.

I join the wagon, and then stick to it through the bitter end. You, once it seems like a large counterwagon is built up (mainly on dahill's arguments) jump off the spacecase wagon, even though it's still got a good chance of going through, only to return to it when phate claims doc.

You make bet-hedging posts like this:

I still don't like Spacecase. However, Rigel's post 704 wasn't much better. See the post I linked above for more about 704.

Meanwhile, I attack LTG's unnecessary townclaim, for which you go after me with craplogic, then back off when I point out the craplogic. (Is it echoing generic townie sentiment and trying to keep my head down to attack an investigated innocent, Shteven?) I also point out what I see as antitown actions in both Oman and MCD from their little spat (Oman's having it both ways, and his hypocrisy in lurking after calling for lynch all lurkers, MCD's assertions about the speed of the wagon).

Day Four: My arguments against Oman were largely original, and had little to do with any 'generic town' sentiment against him. Indeed, as I noted above, those already voting him were the other leading suspects, due to their absence from the Spacewagon.

[The Fonz]

Oooh, yet more Shteven distortions to respond to! Yummy!

Actually, you basically just provided the one reason: that the switch-to-hammer was scummy. And again, for the umpteenth time, your subsequent unvote when he was one of two leading wagons doesn't scream 'willing to fight for a spacecase lynch' to me.

One solid scumtell is enough for me. His reaction/defense to it was also scummy.

It may well have been. BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT YOU SAID. You said you'd given several reasons to suspect him. That wasn't true.

Also:

Well, was kind of hoping a bit more would be here now, but in any case. I'm not a fan of the melodyman wagon. I've seen a lot of lynches based on single mistakes turn up town. Jumping on a wagon with poor/no reasons is something experienced scum really don't do much. You just end up lynching the unfortunate.

Are you seriously claiming I didn't push spacecase heavily day 3? Because I unvoted once? I voted for him on Feb 27th, and also on my 27th post. I held that vote until April 12th, or about 45 days, and 34 posts. Having been unable to get enough people behind him, when the deadline was initiated, I was willing to try other targets.

I'm not saying you didn't push him heavily initially. Hell, the whole Rigel business made it look like you were railroading him. My point is your unvote is utterly inconsistent with the attitude you claimed to have vis-a-vis Spacecase previously. If you are, as your defence of your Rigel ''mistake' indicates, 'desperate' to see spacecase lynched, you don't unvote him when he's the leading wagon and put another player tied with him.

While voting phate, I repeated "would still be glad to lynch spacecase, but as his wagon isn't going anywhere".

This is evidence in your favour how exactly? It perfectly supports the indifference hypothesis! You were willing to lynch spacecase, but you weren't actually that bothered!

And once Phate claimed doctor and I knew I was mistaken, I went right back to spacecase in my very next post.

WHAT! You think it's a tell in your favour that you reverted when the other player you were on CLAIMED DOCTOR!? Words fail me.

And no, I didn't. I looked for behaviour which makes sense in an SK (SKs on the brain, lack of courage in convictions, general scumminess which didn't look like it suggested a link to the mafia group and so on) and found them in you.

It's possible to interpret most actions either from a scum or a town perspective. My point was you took mine and looked at them only from the possibility I was the SK, which is only half of the story. If the actions have just as much of explaination from a town perspective, you don't have much of a tell. See any of mine or username's recent posts talking about null tells.

Bullshit. Pretty much everything can make sense from either perspective- you look for which perspective fits events better. In this case, Shteven-SK fits your actions better than Shteven-town, better than Shteven-scum.

The point was that you aren't making many bold statements, that you haven't done much [original] scum hunting. The echoing statements are just what you're using to fill the void and remain an active poster.

This is exactly my point. This plank of your 'case' applies equally, if not more so, to you!

Guess what? I can quote iam too!

I'm looking at his case on The Fonz, and I'm not seeing a lot of points that aren't either completely unsubstanciated, or equally applicable to Shteven himself.

Original added for clarification.

Day two: We both express that the Kab lynch isn't particularly good, but there is nothing better, really.

Your tape seems to be somewhat distorted. I specifically refused to support it and was hoping for scum to slip up so we could find a better lynch - you joined the kab wagon.

You were waiting around, hoping for 'scum' to 'slip up.' Gentlemen, need I say more?

You half-assedly pretended to 'push' a phate wagon. (Indeed, if one looks at your post there,

Compare this to my play. I re-read, and did my damnedest to find a better case, but couldn't. I thought I had something on phate, but a second look revealed that to be based on a misreading. As a result, I acquiesced in the Kab wagon, as the best we had.

Dragging things out, and 'hoping for the scum to slip up' is just incredibly scummy.

I'd say that's fairly different. Maybe you weren't 100% confident, and you were already after the wagon had been hammered, but you still voted for him. I would have never voted for him that day, and this was even after he had been trying to vote for me for some pretty weak reasons.

Even after you agreed with me that 'the KAb wagon isn't great, but it's the best we've got, so I don't find anyone scummy for being on it?'

It's hard to show exactly why but I really felt his attacks were earnest town feelings. I couldn't see scum risking exposure on such a weak tell as his suspicion over my phrasing in that post. Maybe this was just more obvious to me because he was attacking me, so I took it personally. I was very disappointed in day 2.

Here's a post trying to warn Jesse and others not to lynch kab. He voted based on the wagon being inevitable and needing to end the day, which I urged against. No one else seemed to question such horrible motives.

Those are actually fairly decent motives, and protown actions. Dragging the day out for the sake of it, as i've said, is scummy. If no-one has managed to get a viable counterwagon going, then it was better to go through with an, albeit flawed, Kab wagon than just hang around until everyone got bored.

And I end up joining the KAb wagon at the death, despite the fact he was going to be lynched anyway, based on a policy, regardless of the small matter that it wasn't a great lynch and there was a good chance of him coming up town.

You distanced from the wagon, sure, but you never attacked it.

Now you tell me: Which of those is the action of someone trying to 'keep his votecount down, ' trying to avoid attention?

All posts taken from pages 14 or 15, so they are more or less at the same time. It is true the Fonz wasn't keen on the kab wagon early on but that changed, and claiming that we were on the same page day 2 is either very frustrating or laughable, depending on how seriously I take his posts.

The Fonz wasn't keen on the Kab wagon right to the death, when I voted him when he conceded he didn't mind his own lynch, which is something town should never do. The main difference between us on day two is the difference between 'not sold, but it'll do, and willing to go through with it' and 'not sold, pretending to be opposed, but not actually really doing anything serious to stop it.'

I specifically tried to generate something better several times, first by asking someone else to

Scummy, hypocritical, hiding behind other players...

and finally by getting up and doing it myself.

In a really half-assed way, and indeed, somewhat following SSF.

It just was too little too late. It does, however, serve as another example where I did something unique, and fonz followed the herd; the true meaning behind 'echoing town sentiments'. Not that you merely repeated what someone else said. One final example:

It stands as an example of where Fonz did something protown, despite obvious reservations, and pushed the game forwards, whilst Shteven skulked and distanced himself, without actually making any kind of serious attempt to derail the wagon. Fonz was honest, and protown, and didn't try to score cheap townie points without changing the outcome.

Your point is that I 'followed the herd' by policy voting someone who was going to be lynched anyway (therefore tying myself to a lynch which was fairly like to be a town one) for a completely different reason to that given by anyone else.


[qute]

*Sighs*

This game annoys me. Because this Kab wagon is pretty crappy, and at the same time probably the best thing we have to go on, and therefore I don't find anyone scummy for being on it.

/seconded.

Read the post carefully - I said while I couldn't blame everyone for going with it, I did not endorse the wagon. My later posts (two linked above) proved this as I tried to discourge Jesse who had voted for Kab, and start a new wagon. The fonz may have known it was bad, but avoided confronting the town's consensus, eventually voting for Kab.[/quote]

You /seconded the entire post. Which includes the notion that the Kab wagon was the best we had.

I won't go into as much detail, but your day 4 statements are exactly the same:

Day Four: My arguments against Oman were largely original, and had little to do with any 'generic town' sentiment against him. Indeed, as I noted above, those already voting him were the other leading suspects, due to their absence from the Spacewagon.

In short: Your specific arguments were original, the goal was not.

It was a scum lynch, n'est-ce pas?I re-read, and determined that Oman was the scummiest. Should I have done otherwise, just for the sake of appearing 'different' Shteven? What did you think of the Oman case?

[The Fonz]

It's futile to try to keep your vote count down, just like it's futile to keep your post count down. You'll be called for lurking and be policy lynched. If you want to lay low you have to vote, but vote carefully so as to not generate attention. It takes skill to survive as an SK.

But, and this is fairly crucial,

that's precisely what you were accusing me of, earlier.

Iam: Shteven specifically SK
Currently seeing arm rather than you as mafia.

I am obviously happy enough with this wagon to hammer. Going to hold off in order to give vollkan chance to present any final thoughts that might help tomorrow assuming we're lynching correctly.

[The Fonz]

In fact, vollkan, it may be an idea for you to come up with 3-5 questions for each of us, and then have all agree to begin the day by answering them should it come to that.

[The Fonz]

Umm, it would have been better to wait and have vollkan show up.

This.

Also, 2 v1 endgame leaves the result in the town's hands, which I, at least, would prefer. Plus, even in the scenario where you're not full of crap, allowing vollkan to get his 0.02 in might help the scum hit each other.

Pulling this one after spending the entire game advocating the virtues of 'more discussion' just makes me more confident in your anti-townness.

[The Fonz]

I've kept on insisting my innocence as scum after the lynch before, just to screw with the town.

(In fact, the one time I self-voted in the past outside the RVS, I -lolirony- actually

was

the sk, so this don't impress me much).

[The Fonz]

Meh, you were just waiting for me to hammer anyway. I just have a really hard time believing you're town here.

[The Fonz]

Yep. Self-voting can sometimes make sense for scum. But it only really makes sense for town in the random stage, or when it's 2-1-1.

[The Fonz]

I disagree entirely. Self-voting in the random stage, so long as it is rare, can be used to stir up town, encourage opportunists to attack you, and so on.

[The Fonz]

Doesn't matter, when you're trying to get on from the RVS and generate genuine issue-based discussion.

[The Fonz]

If your team wins, you win.

Also:


YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSS!

[The Fonz]

No, you're right. Pay me no mind. I was camping all weekend and my brain is still fried.

Edit: Actually, I believed he played the odds correctly. Town needed two correct lynches in a row, a one in six chance (2/4 * 1/3), versus the cross-kill chance of one out of four (1/2 * 1/2).

Except that you have to take into account that if you attempt to lynch correctly and fail, you still have the chance of the crosskill. Frankly, I don't think Shteven's play there really made much difference.

armlx is probably mafia, but possibly town.
Shteven is probably SK, but possibly mafia.
Fonz is probably town, but possibly SK.

Damn, I'm good.

When I saw Shteven's self-hammer, I guessed that Fonz would win because armlx killed me and Fonz killed him, but thought for sure their roles would be the other way round.

Fantastically played, Fonz, never had the slightest inkling that you were mafia, and your convincing case against Shteven probably won you the game.

It really helped that I actually believed what I was saying. I'd called Shteven as SK quite a time before.

[The Fonz]

It was Oman's call.

[The Fonz]

Actually, looking at the quicktopic, i put in a shortlist, and everyone else kinda went 'CKD, yeah, that'll do.'

We then killed Ryan because he actually wasn't being a complete tool like usual, which made us think he was protecting a power role.

The playfair kill was because I spotted a super obvious cop tell. Just kidding, it was because we couldn't actually think how we'd ever get him lynched.

After that we just knocked off confirmeds.

[The Fonz]

Nope. I knocked you off because I thought the SK would go for vollkan. As I said, the killing pattern of the SK indicated an uninvestigated, and I actually needed to play with fire for a while w/r/t the SK, because I needed him to thin out the town. The risk of crosskill just had to be taken (besides, the consequences of aiming for the SK and missing would have been catastrophic- I'd have run out of townies to lynch before they came round to me).

[The Fonz]

SK is by far my favorite role (well, tied with pro-town SK aka vig). Needs something extra though. I think I'm going to post in the Open game discussion about making the SK unNKable.

The SK should never, ever, EVER, be both investigation-immune and an-Nkable.

[The Fonz]

Oh yeah, regarding dcorbed: one tip- that kind of last-ditch distancing doesn't work, and i was frankly bricking it that someone would recognise it as such. Fortunately i think Shteven's weak SK case (I couldn't have been trying less to keep my head down) actually distracted from a potentially much better mafia one.