I've been waffling on the original post I had and have decided to withhold it for now.
Where I am right now, I still think that Dragon is most likely to flip scum out of the leading nom candidates based off of a number of factors. I also have a sneaking suspicion that there's a good chance he is the strongest PR the wolves have.
Normally I'd be perfectly fine with D1 nomming CCS slot contribution, but I really don't like how that wagon came about. We went from stalled wagons 3 votes apiece on Dragon, Naerys and Thomith, with Thomith being the counterwagon with dragon and naerys voting for him, to suddenly being able to construct a wagon on the lurker. Nothing in his posting had changed, he could've been voted or examined at any time during the day, but no one thought to mention him at all until it came to WAGON HO!
Currently where I'm sitting looks roughly like this.
CONFTOWN:
ME
STRONGTOWN:
KYOUKO
KITTY
TOWN:
HUTAO
GE
LIKELY TOWN
THOMITH (conf town if Dragon+Naerys both flip scum)
That leaves davesaz, CCS, Jackson, Black, dragon and Naerys.
dave I'm firmly null on atm.
CCS is null leaning town
JACKSON I'm tempted to toss him into the town pile.
That conveniently leaves dragon, black and naerys. Is the game really this easy? Maybe. I'm pretty confident that there's at least two scum in that pool (wouldn't shock me if I nailed all 3, but would surprise me a bit playing with a new group of players). I quite like what Black has been doing from a scum perspective, and in my eyes it makes the most sense that it stems from Dragon being scum. Plus, she's no longer a fluffy adorable Umbreon. If Dragon flips scum, she is buddy #1 and needs to be TURBONOMMED accordingly.
So TL;DR, at the moment I think the game is fairly straight forward, with Dragon likely to be scum and his buddies being pretty obvious post-flip. Therefore I'm happiest with a Dragon nom today.