Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]
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Oh right, I got you, but I don’t think it was the tiger I think it was the other player who often gets referred to as the “animal”
And like, eh? I think I played that whole game really differently to how I played it here, and I think that the more natural assumption should be “because in this one mena is town who was wrong” vs “in this one mena is still scum who learned from his mistakes”
Also that game was just a big sigh, I wasn’t very motivated for it and honestly I’m kinda amazed that my “pulled out of my ass” scumplay is being compared to my fairly try hardy townplay... although that may not say great things about my townplay, come to think of it"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Well apart from the “both scum are probably on snow so let’s just lynch through that wagon” hypotheses being rolled outIn post 1229, Eevee wrote:it gives him minimum towncred while being very bad for scum"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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The main thing that bothers me about RCE (in like a why he may not be scum sense) is A50’s TR on him. If A50 is scum, then it could either be a strong WK, or it could be buddy defence that he’s doubled down on. But if A50 is town then the level of confidence he’s expressed in this does make me think RCE is more likely to be townIn post 1236, Eevee wrote:idk i haven't read the last 5 to 10 pages so i'll leave the final decision to Eva
maybe the solve is like RCE + Montosh or something
@A50, can you point to any examples where you’ve professed a super confident read in someone’s alignment and been right?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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In post 1244, Eevee wrote:Menalque’s pretty charming
It’s okay Eva, I forgive you for being wrong on me, but you have to make it up to me by winning the game, deal?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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A50, if it’s not you, and it’s not me, and you think RCE is cleared for you — do you think it’s montosh or do you think scum would both be off the snow wagon? I don’t think scum can both be off the snow wagon when it was getting resisted so hard, right? Like I don’t think I’m that persuasive that I convinced 5 townies to nearly vote town while scum were busy actively trying to bus their partner?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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It just doesn’t seem likely to me tho fredrick. Like I’m good, but normally I’m not that good. I’d say getting a lot of support is rare if I don’t have some scum backing for what I’m doing and I normally miss one scum even when I am on form (normally the one who’s been backing my plays/pocketing me)"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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In explanation:
I know I’m town. I do still err towards thinking that there was at least one scum backing my push.
RCE is probably town even though he reads super scummy, because of the way mohab talked about him and voted for him? Like she didn’t just say “I wouldn’t be surprised if he flipped scum” and then avoided it (covering for if he did get run up) she actually voted there — i.e. she was happy with a misguillo there?
A50 is probably slightly +town if RCE is town fr defending him although still a big idk there.
Leaves montosh who I also just don’t really townread at all"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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In post 43, Mohab500 wrote:I don't know what the fuck HoldenGolden is saying, so I'll be ignoring that slotIn post 44, Mohab500 wrote:upon more indepth looking, it's actually kinda comprehensible. taking my last statement backAlso, this is a somewhat over explained progression for her approach on holden right?
Would mohab feel the need to explain this much unvoting a townie?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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I haven’t been, but he’s been mostly advocating for me so I guess it’s the same difference. Also, I think that while this is mostly solid, it’s worth bearing in mind that the white flag gambit does exist, and I imagine that A50 is in the group of people ballsy enough to play itIn post 1293, Eevee wrote:Also forgot to point out: scum can't bus today, which is why I asked the unconfirmed to make pushes. Not sure how well my plan worked, but I think everyone has been hardpushing A50 which maybe clears him(?)
~Eva"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Because I am the one who was ultimately responsible for driving the snow wagon, and while I think I’ve done more or less everything in my power to show I’m town since then, people can’t get over it. Which, honestly? Fair enough, I know it’s really hard making calls like that and the idea of losing to me if I were scum is, I can only assume, eating away at the back of the mind of every townie.In post 1310, Umlaut wrote:I'm too lazy to go back and reread everything I skimmed the first time, someone tell me why Menalque is scum and why A50 isn't.
I think the problem is that so long as I’m in the game, people like Eva are going to be worried I’m pulling one over on them, and seeing as I’m not confident on who we should flip today, I think the best thing is honestly to flip me to confirm me, because if we were to guillo two others and be wrong first, the level of paranoia I think the remaining town would have on me in gylo would be so high that I kind of doubt they’d be able to see I’m town there (if they can’t already see it confidently by now)"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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I think S_S and montosh are the two scummiest slots, probably.
I don’t know what I think of titus’ VCA, but it’s probably worth taking into consideration at the least, which means think about A50/ydrasse. I don’t really scumread either on play but that’s a low confidence read.
RCE is also scummy and I think individually comes up right after S_S and montosh. I really hated his AtE today but it may well be genuine.
Sorry not to be more help"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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I really don’t think it’s healthy for the gamestate for me to survive today. I’m glad you have me as town, I’m glad titus is clearing me vía VCA, but everyone else is *begrudgingly* town on me at best, and I have faith in this town to successfully re-evaluate after my flip and to find one of the two remaining scum in the 5 remaining names."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Okay, and if I felt confident on us hitting scum today then sure, I getchu. But I don’t really because I don’t think anyone is like *really, really scummy*. So if we don’t do me today, and we miss (40%EV of a win if we do shoot correct today) then we go to tomorrow where if I’m still not the guillo we have a 50%EV. But if we do miss other of those shots, then despite having a 66% EV of hitting on D4, I think the bias on my slot and discomfort means I’ll be disproportionately more voteable than the actual scum are, meaning the odds are much lower. Also, I guess that should actually be 50% EV D4 from anyone who isn’t me, which makes it /even worse/ given that I think people will be biased towards voting me.
If I die today, then yes, we don’t get the 40% EV shot at an autowin, that’s true. But it does remove the most “obvscum” slot that I think is throwing people like eevee off. So I think that actually improves EV, as we’d still be in with 50% EV D4 but there wouldn’t be the bait slot that is me to skew perceptions"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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So, I uh, realised that my math was wrong because of the scum escape if there’s no scum guillo for two consecutive days.
So in worlds where I’m guillotined today: EV tomorrow is at 40% but then it declines to 33% the day after.
If I’m not guillotined today or tomorrow, then EV today is 40%, tomorrow is 50%, and in gylo it would be 33% anyway. Admittedly there the paranoia creeps in and means it’s lower than that, but I think on balance the extra chance is worth it, in addition to the 50% EV tomorrow if I’m not guillotined then either.
I would like to talk more with eevee.
Can people explain the TRs on montosh? I don’t see it."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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(1) I took my vote back off after (a) realising that my math was wrong (I think my later math was also wrong though lol) and (b) after there was a relative amount of cohesion from the towncore about me not being scum that made me less worried about being the paranoia mislynch in gylo if the game gets there. Your approach here seems super bad faith. Like, yes, I would contemplate pulling this move as scum. But you're just going "ewww gross votes" because it's something IIn post 1363, Montosh wrote:Ewww.
This vote the and the whole stream of posts following is so bad. Why are we not lynching here? Menalque says well hey yes sure I am probably the slot that needs to be evaluated today so definitely vote me. And guess what, people move off that wagon because "scum would never do that".
But scum will do it if they think it makes them look townie enough to give them a chance to escape. They remove some pressure and then stop self-voting.
Not to mention that self-votes are +scum like always.mightdo as scum instead of looking at whether there is motivation for town!me to be doing it. (Which yes, there is, because I am town, and I did it. Also should be fairly obvious without that knowledge that there is a town motivation to thinking that if slots are tunnelled on you who have a lot of influence -- eevee -- then it may be better to resolve your own slot to allow them to recalibrate.
(2) This is just shade, have you got anything to back this up? I've self-voted as town before and have been in multiple games where town has self-voted out of frustration/a desire to have their reads taken seriously once they're confirmed."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Not S_S or raya?In post 1379, Titus wrote:It's probably just Ydrasse and Montosh guys."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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I thought about it more and now think that either both scum bussed or that raya is right in (1 on, 1 off).
My reasoning for this is that if you’re scum and there’s a strongly competing wagon on your scumbuddy, what is gained from trying to save them and push the CW? Yes, you stave off the guillo for one day, but there’s no NK and your buddy probably gets guillo’d the next day. If that does happen then you’re confirming 5 anyway (I suppose you can’t lose by default at least though, which is something) and it’s going to be /very/ clear that you were supporting the CW even if you leave as many people unconfirmed there as possible. I don’t think this is a smart plan for scum if they’re trying to win the game, it’s all about the short term gains.
If, however, you’re a canny scum, then you know that if there are competing wagons and one flips scum, the default response will be “the scum must have Ben trying to save their buddy” — this was my initial thought as it was of several others. But mohab/mae was a weak slot, and I think that’s important to factor in. When I’m scum, I often choose whether I’m bussing or not based on the strength and communicativeness of my partner(s). If I have faith in their abilities or they’re talking a lot with me in scum pt, I try for a perfect game or to at least minimise bussing. If I perceive them as weak or if they’re not talking to me, I’m more likely to go for the bus to set me up as the deepwolf carry for the team.
Based on what mohab/mae die while they were here, I doubt they fit the mould of “scumplayer who we really need to save to win” for the scumteam, which means they would have been a very strong bus candidate, with the idea that town will default to guillotining on the CW and that will be enough (given the fact that game ends at D4) to get the scumteam to a win. So I think actually double bus is plausible, or if not double then single is very likely.
I’m not totally sure who it would be — S_S looks scummy to me but I struggle to read him. All of them have trajectories onto mae which could be bussing. But I think I may have figured out a tell for ydrasse (if she is scum I think it’s accurate) and Titus says VCA implicates her as one of her top suspects. Therefore, I’d like to do ydrasse today"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Also, why did this make you uncomfortable?
"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Maybe, but I doubt it. Generally when wagons are competing that hard it’s SvT. It would still probably have been correct even if wrong because it would have confirmed that scum were very comfortable and probably split across both wagons, had it been TvTIn post 1409, Eevee wrote:
it's not out of the question that scum thought Maemuki could turn the slot around - she didn't have to be the plank walker the next day if we threw snow overboardIn post 1403, Menalque wrote:S_S, you’re online and you were saying earlier that you think it’s insane for scum to bus — why do you think the above logic is wrong?
~Eve
I’m thinking about what S_S said above"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Okay, but listen to me and titus tomorrow once I’ve flipped town and kill ydrasseIn post 1430, Eevee wrote:this why i think it's just Menalque:
- hard pushed snow day 1
- defended Mohab as oblivious town
- started a Titus counterwagon against Mohab
- is pushing the narrative that there were 1 or 2 bussers on Maemuki
~Eve"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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If I was scum I could have quite happily kept arguing that there was scum on my wagon, got montosh done and then probably still lived > RCE/A50 and escaped at nightIn post 1429, Eevee wrote:i think Menalque arguing that both scum may even be bussing is very scum-indicative for him and feels like an agenda he needs to push as scum for a chance to win this game
~Eve
Unless you think I’m partnered with montosh/RCE/A50 which is honestly kinda ???"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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I personally don’t think this play makes any sense from scum!me as all I had to keep doing was pushing the idea that all the scum was on snow and then keep it off me (and frankly I wasn’t looking likely)
And instead your logic is that scum!me decides to throw that all away to push what I know is a likely unpopular mae!wagon target?
Like I literally don’t see how this makes sense from scum!me fypov unless I am exactly scum with montosh which also doesn’t make sense unless you think we entered white flag gambiting all day"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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That’s not enough? That feels like enoughIn post 1445, Ydrasse wrote:
why though other than My Votes And Your Game TheoryIn post 1441, Menalque wrote:
Okay, but listen to me and titus tomorrow once I’ve flipped town and kill ydrasseIn post 1430, Eevee wrote:this why i think it's just Menalque:
- hard pushed snow day 1
- defended Mohab as oblivious town
- started a Titus counterwagon against Mohab
- is pushing the narrative that there were 1 or 2 bussers on Maemuki
~Eve
Titus thinks you’re likely scum by VCA
My most likely expectation of what scum would do means you’re in my candidates for more likely scum
You may have a tell (not sure, depends on your flip here) and if you do it means you’re scum"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Amazing that this is scum!indicative for me when I said it actively knowing it was more likely to get me killed today and I think you should know that I’m intelligent enough to know that’s the caseIn post 1429, Eevee wrote:i think Menalque arguing that both scum may even be bussing is very scum-indicative for him and feels like an agenda he needs to push as scum for a chance to win this game
~Eve"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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I mean if you flip scum I’m definitely not telling youIn post 1451, Ydrasse wrote:i'm actually curious of what you think the tell is now but i'll have to learn later
If you flip town then I’m seeing if it’s broadly reliable for you over a few more games or not, and if it keeps being inconsistent (instead of this being a false positive) then I’ll tell you"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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That’s kind of the point, and it’s why I think your reaction is scum!indicative hereIn post 1451, Ydrasse wrote:but when people put their entire faith into it, it feels like there's not much that i can do to get them to look at everything else regarding the game.
VCA is annoying as scum because if it’s not extrapolated on it just gives people a guilty on you and if they won’t explain you can’t argue with that, so you’re just screwed more or less. I think that town!yiu would be more focussed on trying to identify scum even with a bad VCA on you to help in the case of a mis-guillo on you base on it
Or would just be like “well okay but ur VCA is wrong doe titus” whereas you seem very concerned about that an with being scumread generally, despite i think having not been /that/ at risk of it today given that eevee is probably the biggest town leader atm and wants to stay on the snow wagon. I can’t be because of my defense of mae yesterday, and titus is absent so she’s not leading"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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I don’t think not outing a tell on another player to allow you to reliably discern their alignment in the future is like a trust tell at all really and I think the idea of “you should always out your tells” is flawedIn post 1454, Something_Smart wrote:I feel like there's an argument to be made that this^ is against the rule about harming your performance in the current game to gain an advantage in future games... (there is such a rule, right?)
Though this is neither the time nor the place to discuss that. It just annoys me because it encourages a culture of secrecy and competitiveness, like, beyond the scope of the game itself.
At most I’m hurting myself very minutely here through not outing, but I doubt me outing it changed whether I get guillotined today or ydrasse does"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Menalque he/himSurvivorhe/him
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 23727
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- Location: Madrid, Spain
Right only if I’m right then so long as people listen to me and titus’ VCA it doesn’t matter if I keep the advantage for the future by not telling her what it is, because she still gets flipped tomorrow and town winsIn post 1459, Something_Smart wrote:
Well yeah, you are only harming yourself if it actually benefits you to out it which would basically be if anyone wanted you to out it and thought they could evaluate either you or Ydrasse better as a result.In post 1456, Menalque wrote:I don’t think not outing a tell on another player to allow you to reliably discern their alignment in the future is like a trust tell at all really and I think the idea of “you should always out your tells” is flawed
At most I’m hurting myself very minutely here through not outing, but I doubt me outing it changed whether I get guillotined today or ydrasse does
If it's a meta tell, I, having no meta with Ydrasse, have no interest in it, since I have no way to judge its validity. But I suppose others might.
Or if it’s right and we do guillo ydrasse today, then I also don’t need to out it because that’s happened anyway"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Menalque he/himSurvivorhe/him
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 23727
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
Let it be said, I really do like you regardless of your alignment:)In post 1460, Ydrasse wrote:i thought i was supposed to be pocketing you too. i only have so much room here to hold all of you"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Menalque he/himSurvivorhe/him
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 23727
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
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Menalque he/himSurvivorhe/him
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 23727
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
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Menalque he/himSurvivorhe/him
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 23727
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
I mean I know that if I’m wrong then Eve is probably gonna deathtunnel me tomorrow so fmpov it’s win the game now or watch town probably lose in gylo
So pretty confident but I’d be lying if I said like 100% would blow your mind
I considered trying to swing eevee with a “listen final offer: vote ydrasse and if I’m wrong I’ll self vote tomorrow and spend the whole day prodging” but my heart wasn’t really in it because I’m not that sold she’s scum, she’s just my best bet. If she’s not I think it’s you or raya honestly"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Menalque he/himSurvivorhe/him
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 23727
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
Well the options are currently me or ydrasse unless you wanna start another hero scum wagon but I don’t fancy your chances as today eevee is tunnelling me and not teh scums
"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."-
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Menalque he/himSurvivorhe/him
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 23727
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
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Menalque he/himSurvivorhe/him
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 23727
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain