Mafia 1010 - Perpetual MyLo - Game Over
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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What he means is that chance to hit scum is best on D1 (5/12) compared to 2/5 on D2, 3/8 on D3, 1/3 on D4, 1/4 on D5... However, I guess anything is better than just rolling the dice, so: No! Definitely not the ideal strategy...
We could try to further increase our chances by going no lynch, though, can't we?-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Don't let yourself be manipulated!
Rule six, as I understand it, won't apply if we go "no lynch" by vote.
Our chances if we go no lynch on D1 and mafia always kills some one (@mod: can mafia chose to no kill, btw? Would kind of defeat the purpose of this game, wouldn't it?!):
D1: 0% (obviously, no lynch)
D2: 5/11 (>5/12)
D3: 4/9 (>2/5)
D4: 3/7 (>3/8)
D5: 2/5 (>1/3)
D6: 1/3 (>1/4)
So: going no lynch increases our chances quite a bit.
That being said: Let's stop this whole discussion now and start some real scumhunting! Yes: With real discussiun and real votes and a real lynch threat. And I mean that. If we don't find a good candidate we can still talk about other strategies when DL is nigh.-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Mafia cannot gain majority, stupid, whenever we mislynch they have to NK one of their own. Before you doubt other peoples reasoning you should try to understand it and the the rules of the game your're currently in. It is called "perpetual MyLo" for a reason. So since my logic is flawless so far, your reasoning is just a plain desaster so far.
unvote. vote ex-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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You're assuming that mafia will just either buddy up on each other or hop with four man on a town waggon... I hope they will do one or both of those things... But I wouldn't bet that we've got a pure VI mafia... Going "no lynch" in a MyLo situation to make it LyLo is standard play, btw. However:
@mod: Is mafia forced to nightkill, or can they answer a "no lynch" with a "no kill"? That seems iportant now. Also: Would you rephrase rule 6 to make clear that it also applies in case of a "no lynch"-vote and explain what exactly you mean by "if deadline is acchieved", please?-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Wow, my waggon is becoming more attractive, and I haven't even posted anything in the meantime. Scum opportunism...
Sure, xRx, that is waterproof evidence that Ex is town...xRx wrote:Sure.
This post comes from a townie's POV. Also, meta.
LyLo is better for town than MyLo. Period. I won't follow any other logic when it comes to strategic choices. Not if I intend to play for my wincon, that is. If I can imrove my chances of victory from 24% to 34% (!), I'll definitely do that and not ask any one who is almost 50% guaranteed scum for permission.
Your argument that one misled townie is enough to guarantee a mislynch is just not valid. It would be in any normal LyLo, becasue scum can win the game there right awa and needs not to care about any consequences. If scum just jumps on a town waggon in this game, they're pretty much toast.-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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First of: I never "bitched" about scum hunting.
That being said: I caught you. Since no one else is active at the moment I can only wait for more activity to find your partners.
Oh, and it's three pages into the game and not even all players have confirmed, so you haven't even got a marginal point...-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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If you doubt statistics you better come up with one of your own. We aren't in the stage to talk about it, any way.
Rule 7 sucks... Introducing it now means bad planning by the mod...
Seriously, if we mislynch D1 our chances of winning boil down to some mere 10% or something... I'd rather go no lynch two times than challenge that...-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Bad plan... But we should not tollerate any lurking... Absens of Whoever is not officially V/LA should not be tollerated... Maybe we should intriduce a second deadline 48 hours befor the real one, after that town should only vote for the agreed on lynchee, no one else. Problem could be players being V/LA over the DL... Maybe we should also rather FoS than vote before the first deadline to make sure that mafia cannot quicklynch.destructor wrote:I don't have much time to post and am very tired.
Please give me some feedback on these thoughts:
• Since we can only afford to No Lynch once, we should ALWAYS aim to lynch.
• We should ONLY consider No Lynching if we have mislynched twice and REALLY want another day to discuss the next lynch.
• Not doing the above significantly increases the chances of a loss due to a deadline.
In my fatigued state, that seems fairly comprehensive to me and I hope it can put the lynch/no lynch discussion to rest.
But you're definitely right, if there's gonna be a problem it's deinitely the danger of DL no lynchs rather than the danger of mafia waggon hopping in unison...-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Then let me explai it to you: I didMagnaofIllusion wrote:
Incorrect. I have no trouble understanding what point you are attempting to make. I just find that it seems a little too self-serving to be something that says Town to me.Shadow wrote:@Magna: So you did not reread and try to understand what I actually said. Fine...not: Hi, I'm town because of my sarcastic reactions", which is your interpretation.
What I said that this town - every one, including me - desperately needs to stop to be a bunch of pissed of jerks blindly savaging each other. That will just cause town to turn against itself and give mafia an easy vitory.
I honestly think this antmosphere of excessive distrust, as understandable as it is in a vanilla MyLo, only serves mafia.
Undermining any reational strategy debate by calling out "lack of scum hunting" or "fishing for town creds" for it is also ridiculous and only plays into scum's hands. It is very well possible to do scum hunting and neutral discussion at the same time without mising up bot layers. However, scum definitely has an interest in supressing strategy debates by town and they have quite an easy job doing so because of their overwhelming numbers in this game. Thus I consider and will keep to consider most of the attacks against me on this ground antitown and posibly scum driven, my OMGUS votes are well justified.
This innotabout me or any one being right.
This isnotabout me expecting to follow me blindly.
Thisisabout a cooperative strategy of town, which IMO will increase our chances of victory - and they're bad, no matter how one looks at it - and also allows town to seize a certain control over scum actions.
Thisisabout a certain level of discussion that is not driven by sublimal feelings of distrust and ego and not disturbed by irrelevant "scum hunting" attemts.-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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The lack of objecticity in the attacks against me only allow three conclusions:Ex wrote:
I don't like this at all. so far I haven't seen people acting more distrustfully than what is usually seen on normal games, so why are you trying to make this look like 'chaos'?Shadow Dancer wrote:What I said that this town - every one, including me - desperately needs to stop to be a bunch of pissed of jerks blindly savaging each other. That will just cause town to turn against itself and give mafia an easy vitory.
1.) The attackers where VIs who did not understand what I was trying to explain.
2.) The attackers where scum, trying to inhibit strategy debates, because a disoriented town helps scum (it is reasonable to assume that at least some of ther attacks had this motivation, could be associated with 1.), of course).
3.) The attackers where just over the top paranoid, thus not able to react rationally, like making their own calculations, actually trying to prove me wrong or to improve my strategy.
Take for example the argument that scum could "much more easily win LyLo by blockvoting" - it's obviously not that simple if scum don't want to hand themselves over oj a silver plate.
Any way, then I make a suggestion that town could prevent that by agreeing on a lynch target without voting - and I receive more flak for it.
That those two attacks on me came from positions contradicting each other should at least make you think how rational the waggon on me is.
In your special case, to me it seems more like you're personally concerned because I called you stupid. So: Sorry for that. I really didn't meant to offend you, if I'd wannted to I'd have had available much more striking words.-
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unvote. vote lowell
Upon reread I do not xRx really scumm any more, apart from his opportunistic "I like SD waggon more and more". I think both of us where more bored than anything, maybe he was really drunk...
Lowell on the other hand just threw a vote on a waggon - also opportunistic - without further explanation and there's also no other contribution by him so far. If you wanna call it OMGUS - well, right now it is statistically rather unlikely that I don't OMGUS vote .-
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Yeah, better you do that. I am not entirely sure what you're refering to right now.Exilon wrote:@SD:Sorry for kinda ignoring you. I can get what you say to a certain extent, although I have some doubts as to if it really answer my comment. Still, please answer the rest of the post, if you would. It bothers me when people leave some of my most important comments untouched. I can post the quotes on what I really want you to comment on, if you'd like.-
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Oh, and I'm going to be on every lurker waggon during D1! I don't think that's the final answer to the question how to deal with lurkers, but it will definitely discourage scum to try and lurk their way through D1. When in doubt, and since going LyLo is now impossible thanks to Max' stupid rules 6&7, let's lyncha lurker!-
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Wrong point of view... Scum does not even need to convince a townie, scum has only to wait until at least two townies agree on a waggon and then be open enaugh in their position to quickly jump on it... However, that most likely already happened and we did not have a quick lynch so far... Doesn't that make you think?molestargazer wrote:2. Do wereallywant to take that much of a risk when we can't afford to be wrong very often? Do you really want scum to only have to persuade ONE townie in a final-day scenario?-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Simple: Standard procedure - waggon one by one and look what they say in defense.MagnaofIllusion wrote:So in an environment where we can only afford two mislynches you want to immediately use one to encourage active scum? What criteria are you going to use to assess which of our 5 big lurkers (Lowell, Quoi, Thief, BrianJ, DP) should be the lynch?-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Point is: You did not disprove me nor really bring up a convincing argument why me scum would have made that proposition. You have a right to disagree with my proposition, to make a better one, improve mine, disprove mine, give arguments against mine, but that hardly justifies an attack like that.Exilon wrote:@SD:Your OMGUS votes are not really well justified. I can see so for Reck, but you voted me for disagreeing with you and believing that that strategy was scum faking a genuine attempt at helping town. Also you misread me, called me stupid, and didn't even bother to comment on my post which answered to you, simply changing your vote to Reck in a contentless post, which effectively does not make any mention to the reason you advocated as being the one for the OMGUS vote.
So, wanna keep burying yourself, or...?-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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Don't ask me, it's not my fault we still have this discussion. But there are some people here who seem convinced I must be scum for proposing turning this inot LyLo.MagnaofIllusion wrote:So why open an avenue of argument that you then say is better deferred until later on? What scum-hunting effect does it have?-
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@xRx: I prefer serial posts over WOTs most of the time.
@DP: Maybe you should stop loving and play this game instead? It's a pretty rational thing to do so, it has nothing to do with your personal preferences and feelings
@brian: Simply: No. But you can look into my Wiki article. Or maybe in one of my marathon games... But maybe you'd just realize that I've got both a flexible scum and town meta. Every game is different, you know. Maybe you should get rid of your "I'm cop and have a guilty on SD" mentality - that was newbiw 958. This is a different game!
@Quoi & Thief: Do something.
@Quoi: Telling Thief unhelpful, though it's right, while remaining not helpful at all seems a bit like hypocisy, don't you think?
@Ex: That attack was just lame. Give me one simple reason why scum would come up with it to "fake helping town" as you said (I don't cathegoricall say they won't, but I consider it rather unlikely, but that's based on what I would most likely do as scum, and sometimes I just do the unlikely, just to confuse people... WIFOMatics!).-
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@Max: Don't blame it on me,Iunvoted.
@dest: I haven't got a clear read of brian so far. I dislike his attack on me for obvious reasons, especially because he bases it on another we just finished together where I was mafia and he investigated me as cop, resulting in massive tunnel syndrome... (And Agressive play is not a scumtell but more or less a necessity).
What sparked your interest in brian?-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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@magna: Haven't we played a maraton game together with Quoi? I think he was as useless there as he is here, if I remember right?
Other than that: If we take hypocrisy and lurking as scumtells, lots of players should be lynched by now and this game would be incredibly easy to win...
I just don't have a good feeling about it right now.
However, if Quoi, Thief or SB are all town and nonetheless lurking around we maybe have just too many VIs on our side to wi this any way.
@Quoi, Thief, SB: Please start contributingnow!
I don't like lynching scum just because of lurking.
I hate mislynching because of VI anti town lurkers even more.
And I'd definitely like to leave the state of prod voting lurkers already.-
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@Ex: Sorry man, but according to your loging every one in this game who ever dared to vote any one acted majorly anti-townish, especially when that one made the scond vote on a waggon, possibly enabling - as you say - scum to just do a united quick hammer. As has been pointed out multiple times by now - anyway it's just basic common sense - that is just not likely to happen.
In your words: Mafia wants -needs- to blend in as town - they just won't do it! Not now, at least. Period. I consider LyLo vs. MyLo the least concern in mafia considerations in this reagard. The difference boils down to a 1/4:1/3 chance of victory... But that discussion has been modkilled... So I won't pick it up again ;..(
And lurkers finally joining in would be better than lurkers just being quicklynched, don't you think... How ever, I do not care about scum lurkers. DP is high up in my scumlist now.-
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Shadow Dancer Mafia Scum
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You basically say it yourself again: You have no point at all. The contradiction lies inExilon wrote:
This is awful.Shadow Dancer wrote:@Ex: Sorry man, but according to your loging every one in this game who ever dared to vote any one acted majorly anti-townish, especially when that one made the scond vote on a waggon, possibly enabling - as you say - scum to just do a united quick hammer. As has been pointed out multiple times by now - anyway it's just basic common sense - that is just not likely to happen.
In your words: Mafia wants - needs - to blend in as town - they just won't do it! Not now, at least. Period. I consider LyLo vs. MyLo the least concern in mafia considerations in this reagard. The difference boils down to a 1/4:1/3 chance of victory... But that discussion has been modkilled... So I won't pick it up again ;..(
1) According to my.. loging... what?
2) "anyone in this game who ever dared to vote any one acted majorly anti-townish" <-- hum, when did I say this? It doesn't follow what I wrote. AT ALL.
3) Are you serious?
It's basic common sense yet you yourself were pointing it as being a dangerous possibility on #92 . On #110 I even went as far as to comment on that and completely destroying that danger, pointing yet again an argument made by you which only superficially "helps town". (= fake attempt at being productive.). You never commented on it, either.SD wrote:especially when that one made the scond vote on a waggon, possibly enabling - as you say - scum to just do a united quick hammer. As has been pointed out multiple times by now - anyway it's just basic common sense - that is just not likely to happen.
contradiction much?yourlogic, it appears as soon as I pick up your lame argument. Don't try to pretend now that the "Oooh, mafia will just kill us in LyLo" came from me (to be fair, that issue was first raised by the mod, though, he made this setup as flawed as it is).-
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QFT.MagnaofIllusion wrote:We did play in a UPick TV themed Marathon with Quoi on Moving Day. He replaced in to a Mafia slot and pretty much lurked is my recollection. I think NoPoint was also in that game but got lynched early.Not sure how behavior in a Marathon style game in any way a good match for the normal environment.
I thought about another game... But maybe I am wrong... I thought Quoi was town and I lynched you as mafia in LyLo... But maybe I am totally wrong here... I cannot find the moving day games anywhere in the forums or archives-
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Explain how the bolded sentence makes any sense from a Pro-Town mindset. I understand the second sentence but Town should like to lynch Scum regardless of the reason. Also, please tell my how you reconcile the last sentence with this post –
The problem is that it is hard to determine if some one is lurking because he is mafia or because of any other reason x that comes to mind... And most of the hard lurkers here seem to have a history of lurking. The problem is that our margin for mislynches is minimal in this game.-
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