Flash mafia 3 (town wins)
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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populartajo wrote:Porochaz wrote:populartajo wrote:readz so far
town: llamarble, ythill, regfan, prozac
meh: elli, dgb, agoti or parabollocks (but not scum together)
scum: ghost, fate or farside (but not scum together)}
post moar: everyone else
populartajo wrote:town: llamarble, ythill, regfan, prozac
populartajo wrote:town: prozac
populartajo wrote:town: prozac
Just what are you trying to pull? You never think Im town.
you just became obvtown
This felt to me like the DGB-Equi interaction D1 in whiteflag.
DGBscum called Equi town, Equi was like 'What??' and DGB was "see now you're really obvtown."
I'm behind though. I'll catch up tomorrow.-
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Llamarble
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Llamarble
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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I am sold on GWscum and Ythill town and Farsidetown.
Also leaning town on DGB/Elli.
Fate seems a fairly likely GWbuddy, but we'll get there later.
VOTE: GhostWriter
Basically he WAY THE HELL OVEREXPLAINED his rvs thought process, and I don't see town considering those things when choosing where to place their vote at that stage of the game. Other things too.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Oh man!
I think we lynch whoever Farside RBed, assuming scum aren't allowed to intentionally nokill.
Like doctor protect is possible but mechanically the odds of whoever farside RBed being scum are substantially higher than anyone else's.
Yes, I'm assuming Farside is town, but I think that is not wrong.
Mod, what are the rules regarding whether scum are permitted to no-kill?
So with no kills we probably have 1 scumteam of 3 then?-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Yikes.
'tis annoying when game mechanics give a townie the highest odds of being scum or a scum the lowest.
At least this is better than a copinnocent on a godfather since this isn't game ending but merely sucks.
I wouldn't have submitted the kill for my team because of:
farside22 wrote:
Give a list on whom I'm thinking of roleblock?
If so:
Untrod, LlamaM, Regan (god damn itch), Fate (not trusting him) and throw in Girlonthenet because of a current game that I read someone as a VI and they flipped scum.
Anyway, this does mean that some kind of doc-protect is the most likely reason for kill failure.
Which means we can turn a doc + their target into masons.
But yeah if I were anybody other than me I'd be lynching me right now, so I guess I'll do a readthrough and give you my most important insights.
Bleh.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Stuff'll be tomorrow.
I am quite confident Amrun's town, actually.
Whoever doc is should breadcrumb their protect at some point 'cause I'mma flip town and if doc dies then doublesuck.
I am concerned about scumspiracy farside roleblocks town and nokills intentionally?
But Farside blocking me doesn't really make her any more likely to be scum.
Also scum nokilling means they require an extra mislynch anyway because oddeven so that gambit doesn't actually do anything.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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DrippingGoofball wrote:Llamarble sounds honest...
That's cause I am!
But whereas most people have odds ~3/12 of being scum (from a townie's perspective, I have odds around 3/12 * (1/3 + 1/12) / 2/12 = ~60%.
P(me scum | nokill) = P(me scum) * P(nokill | me scum) / P(nokill)
I didn't do that very precisely, but the point is you'd have to be sufficiently confident in your townread of me to ignore that I'm objectively something like twice as likely to be scum as everyone else. And I don't think anybody thinks I'm bad enough at being scum that they'd be able to justify lynching somebody else.
But yeah I'mma do my reread now.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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FIRST PASS:
AGOTI - SCUM WITH FATE/TAJO
AMRUN - WEAKTOWN
crypto wrote:
GW felt town to me. I hammered him because the majority was bent on lynching him and I was getting fed up with the dragged-out day.
CRYPTO - HAVEN'T SEEN TOWN DO ^. HAVE DONE ^ AS SCUM MYSELF. OTHERWISE NOT TOO BAD. BLORG.
DGB - PROBTOWN
ELLI - TOWN
FARSIDE - TOWN. ME FLIPPING TOWN DOES NOT ACTUALLY MAKE HER SCUM LIKE IT WOULD IF SHE WERE A COP WHO CLAIMED A GUILTY.
PARABOLLOCKS - PROBTOWN
TAJO - WEAKSCUM
PROZAC-WEAKTOWN
REGFAN - SCUMMMMMMMM
YTHILL- NOT 9000000% OBVTOWN BUT STILL PROBABLY TOWN.
VOTE: REGFAN
So my first guess is Regfan + Agoti + Tajo?
I will iterate again later tonight or tomorrow and make cases etc.-
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So FIRST PASS convinced me scum are playing pretty well.
SECOND PASS:
AGOTI:
a girl on the internet wrote:Porochaz wrote:Regfan, Ellibereth, P-Bollocks, crypto, and iffily DGB - a list of people who should be lynched before Ghost. Regfan for sitting on coattails, the middle 3 because they are of very little use, the more central you go the more useless they get and DGB for playing totally against her meta.
dun get what reggie is doin in this list. he's alrite.
Is a mild towntell.
Scum don't often YO I HAZ MINOR ISSUE WITH YOUR SCUMLIST, but if she is scum it's likely one of Poro/Regfan is too.
'I wanna hammer Farside lol' is also a somewhat town thing to say.
I have said "I'm tempted to QH here" as town; as scum I've either been afraid to mention it or just done it for the ballspoints.
Otherwise she seems to approve of the D1 wagons without getting super involved, but the source of the approval seems to exist.
I can follow her thought process and it makes sense, her motives make sense, and a couple individual towntells = TOWNREAD.
AMRUN:
Predecessor UT did :JACKSHIT:
No comments on major lynch wagons D1, and although semi v/la GW ISO wasn't a long read at all.
Amrun wrote:Still v/la, haven't read. Will be all read up by tomorrow, so should I still be alive, I will share my reads tomorrow.
Meh I don't think town Amrun bothers with "if I'm still alive" considering the likelihood of scum NKing her was like zero.
Rest of her posting is making me lean scum mildly. Her case on Parabollocks sounds like cases I make as scum.
So I'm getting a scumread here. But I'm getting tired so I'll pick up with Amrun tomorrow.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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BTW Fate I read you right in Mostly Mountainous, 1175, AMG, Maf with hydras.
In Dilemma mafia I happily townallianced you and called you town but that read frayed because we kept lynching townies and I thought I was wrong about something. I didn't actually attempt to lynch you though.
Lovers Multiball I thought you + Reck scumteam would make sense by lylo but wasn't sure and didn't really do anything about it other than ask townies to unvote other townies which didn't happen.
So yeah, track record not at all horrible.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Also haha @ Regfan expecting me to play like in Buffy mafia.
I was FREAKING PRESCIENT in that game and called that Giles would be in the setup + a demon cop, that Jason was scum preparing to fakeclaim Angel in his early posting, and that we would quicklynch all the scum.
And days 2 and 3 Reg's hydra of pure awesome with Slaxx gave us copguilties.
THAT GAME WAS AWESOME BTW.-
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Porochaz wrote:@Regfan,
I didn't like him yesterday. Then his first post today was this:
Llamarble wrote:Oh man!
I think we lynch whoever Farside RBed, assuming scum aren't allowed to intentionally nokill.
Like doctor protect is possible but mechanically the odds of whoever farside RBed being scum are substantially higher than anyone else's.
Yes, I'm assuming Farside is town, but I think that is not wrong.
Mod, what are the rules regarding whether scum are permitted to no-kill?
So with no kills we probably have 1 scumteam of 3 then?
Makes a suggestion on lynching someone who has been targetted by someone who could as easily be town and scum, lynching a person who would give us no information come the next day. He's making assumptions he shouldn't be making and suggesting we go for a what is a completel flawed plan. Then he ends asking a question which is obvious and making yet another assumption he shouldnt be making.
That was my reasoning for that post. The roleblock on him was the ironic icing on the cake.
The person she roleblocked clearly has the highest odds of being scum. Something stopped the kill and she had already claimed a power capable of doing that.
It's not like a simple 1v1 where her odds of being scum equal mine; her chances of being scum are as low as anyone's. Also I think she's town.
Would you complain about no information if a cop claimed a guilty on somebody? That's just dumb.
If there is one player with substantially higher odds of being scum than others, you lynch them. Or at least this is how one maximizes odds-of-winning.
Now I have to convince people I'm so face-meltingly town it doesn't matter that I start with roughly twice the odds of being scum everybody else does.-
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"I am tempted to hammer right now" is different from "I am waiting for X to be at L - 1 so I can hammer"
But I'll get to Farside later today.
Worry about getting vigged kind of makes sense, but as scum I do feel an obligation to 'if I'm alive tomorrow' more often than I do as town.
So I guess that works out slightly south of null.
But I'll be rereading you today too anyway.-
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I don't like Amrun's Parabollocks paragraph.
But scum don't usually complain about hating it when people claim scum.
I need more scumreads I think.
I am going to table Amrun for now and get on with other guys.
Elli's early posting feels like he's trying to lay the towntells on extra thick rather than trying to blow things up and find guys.
But I'll get to him later too.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Okay, if Fate is mafia has has THOROUGHLY bamboozled me. I am at willing-to-lose-if-Fate-is-scum point.
Ythill, AGOTI, Farside are all also clearly town. Porochaz too.
The scumteam are some combo of
Parabollocks
Tajo
Regfan
Parabollocks Tajo Regfan
Regfan
Tajo
Parabollocks
Crypto is kind of a backup scum but not really.
Amrun also.
Elli is probtown.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Yep, there will be more explaining tonight and Friday is an acceptable deadline for getting all my stuff down.
180 on Fate happened in my first pass reread and solidified last night.
I'd be happy if this were like Dilemma mafia, except long term town virtually MUST lynch me unless I like lynch all scum in a row or something. Or Farside flips scum, but that doesn't seem likely.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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It's not like I haven't been doing anything.
Most people in this game are pretty town. Maybe Ythill isn't or something?
Para is scum basically for not being very town and by association to others, so I'm not really interested in lynching him today.
I'm substantially more confident of Regfanscum than the others, so I'll just make that case now.-
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Regfan Case:
SCUMTELL # 1:
RUN ON SENTENCES (more specifically paragraphs that feel like they are dribbling out a bunch of major points in a row rather than making real focused arguments).
(this is also a major reason Amrun's phrasing of her Parabollocks case bothered me)
I've caught myself writing a lot of I think X and Y and Z type run-ons as scum recently.
As town I usually give each thought its own sentence / explanation because I'm considering each idea more deeply.
Jungle Republic Regfan's sentences feel like this game Regfan. PYP he has paragraphs of more forcefully worded clear explanations of his points.
We interrupt this broadcast to announce Amrun kind of has pinged me and is fighting for Para's place alongside Regfan & Tajo.-
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REGFAN SCUMTELL #2:
LACK OF PONDERING.
One of the big things that made me like Regfan-town so much in 1156 & Buffy mafia was him pointing out interesting things and busting up scum.
In this game he has said the following things of note:
Fate's town for not spamminating.
Poro is town for challenging a townread on him.
Farside is town for being stubborn.
Ghost's is trying to make contributions but not being useful -> scum.
Then he comes out with this laundry-list of a couple tells with each person.
Just not a high density of puzzling overall. I don't see gears grinding and persistence about the importance of individual thoughts.
SCUMTELL #3
INTERACTION WITH TAJO:
"YOU IS MAKE NO SENSE BUT I AM NOT INTERACT WITH YOU FURTHER FOR AWHILE"
Scum especially do this when a buddy busses them, but regardless of Tajo's alignment this bothers me.
I'll go get some examples of Regfan jamming ideas together.-
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Reg also didn't interact much with stuff that was going down while his top suspect Ghost (whom he didn't really say much about) was getting lynched D1. That's more a 'look and see if you agree with me that he's not engaging' than anything concrete though.
Yes I did just make that observation. Recently I've been doing a lot of my scumhunting by looking through the game and trying to figure things out and not really taking notes unless I see something huge. Then I give my reads and start trying to identify the things that caused them when it's time to sell them.
His reads Laundrylist is the best example of jamming ideas together I think. Each paragraph piles together a few observations on a person, few of which he had mentioned prior to that post. The Porochaz/Amrun/Me paragraphs especially.
His paragraph on me tosses roleblocked + trying to get doc to crumb + Trying not to have readable interactions.
I AM HAPPY TO INTERACT.
INTERACT WITH ME BITCHES WHEEEEEE
ALSO I'M A VT
HOW'S THAT FEEL TAJO?
ALSO I AM TOTALLY WHITEKNIGHT BAIT BECAUSE TOWN BASICALLY _HAS_ TO LYNCH ME AT SOME POINT SO THERE'S THAT.-
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Llamarble Mafia Scum
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Llamarble
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Amrun has TREEBARKDEERSQUISH towntell and ANNOYEDBYSCUMCLAIM towntell but she actually is a better example of runonscumtell than Regfan.
Is also aloofyquestionywatertesty.
Tajo I need to think about more because he has both kinds of tells too.
And my top 5 was Regfan Tajo Parabollocks Amrun Crypto or somesuch but iz shufflin around since I've been spending the last couple hours on this game.-
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Llamarble
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Porochaz wrote:Fate wrote:You REALLY don't get the concept of distancing DO YOU?
Why distance as masons. It makes no sense.
I have typically found it really easy as scum (or town) to identify the remaining mason after one is gone.
Scum never expect masonbussing, so it solves the 'all masons die in a row' problem.
P. edit: Yep.-
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@Tajo:
Irrespective of all role stuff, you agree my play has been townish.
Fate's been super-town too.
We claimed masons.
1+1 = 2
Look into your heart and my posting and Amrun's posting.
Then vote Amrun.
And yeah I agree Tajo sounds like he believes himself.
Attacking masons is like one of the BALLS QUOTIENT TO 11 plays scum practically never do.-
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Huh, I don't see in Farside's posting anything making it obvious that Regfan is going to be her target.
Which means Regfan knows he was blocked based on an actual night action failure.
ALSO
Regfanscum knows there's a doctor or similar in the setup because something has to have caused the D1 killfailure.
So unless he submitted an additional action or had information about Farside's target choice,
HE WOULDN'T KNOW IF A ROLEBLOCK OR A DOC CAUSED KILL FAILURE.
And as scum he (very likely) DIES if he claims getting blocked and Farside didn't actually do it.
So he's a lot more likely to wait for Farside to claim target and let that player get lynched ezmode if they're not scum.
So yeah basically Regfan claiming he was roleblocked as scum before Farside says anything is a fairly unlikely play.
REDUCTIO AD MILD ABSURDUM
Regfan is town unless something kinda weird happened and shouldn't be lynched today.
Mod can scum submit a kill and an additional action this game?
Now to figure out who scum is.-
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That post Regfan quoted makes the Regfan-is-town deduction safer.
I do not think massclaim is a good idea right now, but if the doctor-thing has two living protects coming out and making some conftowns is probably good.
Also teehee, I have played in a roleblocker vs. doc + tracker game.
The roleblocker actually is worse than a goon imo because they nearly double the effectiveness of the tracker.-
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I'm not at MEGA BLOODLUST yet, but DGB has all kinds of associative tells with Amrun.
Definitely got a feeling yesterday she was trying hard to make other things happen.
VOTE: DGB
Also considering the awesome power of scum janitor, I feel like scum would've made a fairly concerted effort to keep Amrun alive.-
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