Mini Normal 2309 | Finished!

[the worst]

Hey Bob! Hey everyone!

Do you want me to claim? Is there a reason we're doing it in f9 with (probably) one scum left alive rather than in f5 or f7? Genuine question I can see lots of reasons just curious which one/s are true

Bob why do you think you survived n2?

[the worst]

Not going to lie, I secretly hoped I'd luck into a scum slot here. But no, I have to do solving things again. If someone can solve the game for me and deliver me some perfect reads that'd be fantastic.

[the worst]

yeah that's fair enough, it's better to give replacements some room to work through stuff especially if it's not endgame in my experience. dragging them through the replace in process causes a lot of confirmation bias and not much else.

what are your reads on slot alignments?

[the worst]

I can see my slot is voting iavh. That's fine, without knowing a damn thing about the game I would also vote Brad right now.

[the worst]

Ah OK I'm picking up what Bob is puttin down

I'm a vt

[the worst]

It's so funny to me that scum have a rolestopper and a doctor and that there's a jailkeeper in this set-up. like someone really did design this and be like "I would very much like a Moderator to have to decide how these interactions work".

[the worst]

First impressions readlist so I everyone can roast me post-game

tw
bob
yimmy
nurse
hu tao
naerys
iavh
dragons
brad

[the worst]

Dragons is only low for me because I've seen 0 of his posts so far. I've just come out of a game where I epically misread his scumgame so I feel kinda confident rn.

[the worst]

uuhh iavh has something subtly tonally towny about him but yeah I think I want him to be town, more than I feel like he's town, honestly

I might need to be careful with vt reads because at this rate we're looking at a total of 4 vanilla townies in a normal game, there's actually a much higher than random chance that 2-3 of us are town

[the worst]

also wary the vt pool is a good place for the vig to hide since if they exist, they don't reeeeally need to claim today tbh

[the worst]

last but not least - did we get rn's result from n2?

[the worst]

there is only one scum left the worst. there's actually a 100% chance that at least 3 of us are town
brad/cs is claimed vig. would've been counterclaimed at this point i think lol
rn is claiming lazy so he got no result n2 (only one scum left)

aha thanks! i had him down as novice in my brain.

last but not least - did we get rn's result from n2?

No. Did you read my claim?

no!

[the worst]

now i have. damn that's a good role.

[the worst]

now i have. damn that's a good role.

dude what's up long time no see. happy to see you here

hey nice to see you too! i'm really sorry, were you on another account when we met?

VOTE: the worst

Soz

i hope ur apologising for not working on reads w me & not for voting me

[the worst]

from a solve perspective i'm, like, ~aware~ people are incorrect bc i think my slot is the largest wagon. if i'm on the block today, i'd like to be a bit more comfortable than i am. i'm also pretty good at solving so i think there's merit in not compromise?-liming me in f9 the same day i replace in.

please don't take this as AtE. it's really not. just putting it out there, there's very little i can do to fight this lim and i just do not think i have the time to advance my solve spectacularly.

[the worst]

bob3141 - absolutely town
Hu Tao - i really like hu tao for town & trust bob to get this read right
Random Nurse - uhhh tone thing idk
iamveryhappy - whom
Yimmy - total surface read but i like what yimmy is putting down here, doesn't really feel safe, so i don't want to go there.
iambrad - i'll decide after a claim we're not killing a claimed vig
the worst - clearly town smh
Save The Dragons - i am somewhere in the middle about dragons, and i think he becomes easier to solve once we're past the mechanical bottleneck of this phase (which, selfishly, is when i think i add the most value)
Naerys - should be jailkeeping the most epically null vt tonight for a soft-clear


i actually think yimmy is kind of on point. we have 2 flipped scum power roles (looker/kkfc), one pretty powerful flipped town power role (dann), 3 claims of reasonably strong power roles (bob, iambrad?, naerys), hu tao is some flavour of neighbour, random nurse is a mid-strength pr who is a named townie atp. we have 4 claimed vt (happy, yimmy, dragons, myself). normal setups require at least 1 vt, and (in my experience) have a tendency to prefer the highest number of VTs/unclearable TPRs possible while still balanced.

from a setup perspective, i wouldn't be shocked if all of the VT claims are town but that's also far from convincing!

we're also in f9, probably have 4 more lims, so i can see the merit of steering towards hitting VTs at the moment. i just feel very odd not having a handle on the game.

[the worst]

now i have. damn that's a good role.

dude what's up long time no see. happy to see you here

hey nice to see you too! i'm really sorry, were you on another account when we met?

VOTE: the worst

Soz

i hope ur apologising for not working on reads w me & not for voting me

yes i am killthestory. we talked on discord some time ago, but i deleted the app and went mia on everything for a while. sorry about that :p.

happy to see you though! didn't know you even still played on mafiascum.

oh dude nice to see you again!! i haven't seen you around forever, yeah, welcome back to MS

i've been a little inactive on the mafia side lately, just lurking around the discussion forums. i'm never too far from MS lol.

[the worst]

cool. i think it may actually be in town's best interest to stop talking about power roles at this point honestly.

i don't think i'll do the full read - kinda trying to whittle down a POE i like the look of then doing ISOs i guess?

i'm down to jam about stuff too, you & yimmy have both got me surprisingly motivated for a VT game where i'm probably about to be lim'd
VOTE: nurse placeholder vote

[the worst]

i think the first places i want to look are like; nurse, happy, dragons

second tier is you (brad for posterity), hu tao & yimmy

naerys like, can be scum, but it's in a weirder world than any of those 6.

anyone here on your radar?

[the worst]

Why do you scumread Yimmy? I think they're the only person insightfully challenging the status quo this phase so I really like them for town.

[the worst]

cool. i think it may actually be in town's best interest to stop talking about power roles at this point honestly.

i don't think i'll do the full read - kinda trying to whittle down a POE i like the look of then doing ISOs i guess?

i'm down to jam about stuff too, you & yimmy have both got me surprisingly motivated for a VT game where i'm probably about to be lim'd
VOTE: nurse placeholder vote

So you call me a "mid-strength PR who is a named Townie at this point" and then vote me right after that.

Be consistent

.

I am!

[the worst]

random nurse and happyimhere specifically have some pretty ??? voting from voting each other day 1 off any considerable wagon to voting together on katy day 2. plus the bbmolla kill implies that there has to be a wolf on that wagon with a kill off wagon. bob i think also is equally worth looking at after being on some random wagon day 1, katy day 2, and no voting late into today until he got into conflict with me & my slot forcing the vote.

your wagon is technically a counterwagon to mine as well, but i didn't think too poorly of your slots decision making. present day 1 lynch off katy lynch day 2 etec etc, but since there's only one scum left (supposedly), then it could be realistic your slot is wolf without me doing any informative reads.

I can't offer too much of use but iavh and rn are both players who I'd consider to have fairly dynamic individualistic personalities. so weird voting patterns are kind of what I'd expect from them, I'll do some more thinking into apparent motives in their voting and stuff like that.

we are counterwagons, but I don't really think either of our preds really acted in a way with bad faith as far as I've seen yet? so I'm kind of lukewarm on the value of flipping one of us for the wagonomics insight. More so I just think town has a lot of control this phase. I might need to be a bit more critical of good role claims & safe lurkers I guess.


btw - we have a rule against using the word "lynch" these days. "eliminate" is the kinda go-to replacement word.

[the worst]

Nachomamma8? I haven't seen nacho foreverrrr, I think he got busy with irl stuff. Ellibereth doesn't play here anymore either but he's not banned - he got a scummie that year where he has nearly no misreads idk if you were here when that happened. Dunn is still around a bit too, but I'm not sure I've seen him play a lot of games lately. I still have Dunn on discord but I'm not 100% sure how to contact Elli or Nacho. I can't remember exactly who else might have been part of that group - I know Dunn & MariaR were playing together a bunch around then. That was my hayday too but I only kinda loosely knew them all



on bob -- he has a purity about the way he's conducting himself this phase which I think is a firm hallmark of town-Bob, the only thing I'm wary of is that Hu Tao might have him pocketed. Still not super likely imo but Bob himself is town af.

[the worst]

I'm open to eliminating either Yimmy, iambrad, or the worst at the moment.

The lurkers also bother me at the moment.

hope this doesn't sound unfairly combative. you are talking about somewhere between 3-5 townies & possibly one scum in this post. can you expand a bit on your reads & who you think the last mafia actually is? I get that you have opinions but the reason you're in my PoE so firmly is because I have no idea why you have the opinions you do.

[the worst]

I guess Yimmy is the first read I should check myself on since having a towny d3 is kinda easy if you have no team-mates to cover

[the worst]

Bazuf in 76 is like a caricature of a town post on pg4 idk I guess it is fakeable.

I really like Yimmy's reads in 780 for a few reasons -
- I don't think I'd reach the same conclusions but I believe that what Yimmy is putting down is their version of reality, like it's generally fairly cohesive
- if yimmy is town their top tier is [scumbuddy-kkfc, lurker-dragons] and I'm just not sure pocketing dragons is sensible enough to force these two reasonably idiosyncratic reads to the top of the list?
- the second tier is [iavh (who is VOCAL on d1 usually), hu tao, naerys]. It feels a bit unnatural for scum!yimmy to leave the more charismatic townreads out of their top tier when the top tier itself is very idiosyncratic? like I just think they ~believed~ those top reads.
- kkfc is the most extensively note-taken read and it's just a massive hard townread without batting an eyelid. this just feels like a whack way to treat a scumbuddy

yimmy & kkfc's interactions in general early on just don't feel all that partnery unless yimmy committed to starting the kkfcfc (kkfc fan club) or whatever.

I'll do more on this later but someone else pls expand on yimmy

[the worst]

VOTE: dragons rn is kinda towny and I am just deeply deeply null on dragons, this is my new preferred placeholder vote.

wary dragons is also v/la most of the rest of the phase so idk if this is the most productive push

[the worst]

Naerys is a bad elimination based on the last 5 paves.

[the worst]

So your out of RVS now. As the game stands where do you feel your actual vote would be most placed. Even if you strongest reads is null scum.

I’m in no rush to decide my vote yet. What I can say as of now is that I have weak townreads on

KatyKimFanClub

and

iamveryhappy

.

Happy is probably town. I don't think he trs both partners here.

thought about yimmy's read list from this perspective?

[the worst]

nurse can u expand on your yimmy read or talk to me about dragons at all

[the worst]

For the worst:i used my 2 shots so i am useless now

i noticed this would probably be the case after i gave target suggestions i'm so sorry

[the worst]

iavh how do u feel about nurse, dragons & yimmy? i think those are the spicy slots rn, i'm not vibing the brad wagon much

[the worst]

do you feel comfortable voting brad?

[the worst]

yeah but there's not a vig is there? if there was i think they would've cc'ed cs, like, a while ago and brad is claiming not to be a vig. i think there's a real chance cs shot bbmolla (as scum) to validate his vig claim since he knew bob would be protected. like it would've been a good move i think. and with the way bbmolla was yesterday it's hard to justify scum shooting him besides rn or cs. or i guess whoever just shot randomly to avoid leaving associatives. that's kinda a cheap way to discount a lead though and i'm not giving it too much credence when we are in f9 with 1 scum left. (it also couldn't have been a shot intended to frame cs cause if that was the case cs could just say "that wasn't me" and it wouldn't go very far i think)
i'm not gonna vote yet though lol. i promised an iso there and i'd feel very dirty if i didn't follow through. tonight!! (it will probably not be super deep, i am busy this weekend and it is long)

It would be better to end this line of conversation and not eliminate the brad slot today.

[the worst]

what do we know on save the dragons?

They were the one that flipped leading day one wagon from PC to looker. pc was at 4 and looker 3, at that point they switched from Pc to looker. With deadline approaching they effectivly ensured scum would be executed


Greeting had a few intereactions with them. one was post 512 were greeting ask dragon on their view on civils case against kim. Concidering dragons response it doesnt look like scum asking scum about town read on their scum partner. Feels like it would be unnecessary assoications especially when they dodnt do anything to capilitise on the interaction. as dragon responed witha one line. Felt very much like scum casing if any town was biting on civils read


And generally overall their interactions dont feel s/s.

Bob are you sure about this? I'm reading over dragons' conversation with Greeting now and I just can't clear it.

Neither of them seems particularly concerned with sorting the other. Dragons enters with a sus on Greeting, and Greeting doesn't seem concerned.

They're posting at each other and asking each other questions and answering the questions but I can't see any kind of insight or development from either of them out of the conversation?


Greeting & Dragons can both have conversations with scumbuddies, that's something that's in both of their skill sets. What about this convo do you find clearing?


Ftr im not really sure if I view this convo as something explicitly s/s either. I just can't see anything in it that makes me go "dang dragons is town for this", which *is* something I see for yimmy and you for example.

[the worst]

I think Brad is town and that's a bad vote. I think we go yimmy today

can you let me know what you think of yimmy's readlist in 780?

Bazuf in 76 is like a caricature of a town post on pg4 idk I guess it is fakeable.

I really like Yimmy's reads in 780 for a few reasons -
- I don't think I'd reach the same conclusions but I believe that what Yimmy is putting down is their version of reality, like it's generally fairly cohesive
- if yimmy is town their top tier is [scumbuddy-kkfc, lurker-dragons] and I'm just not sure pocketing dragons is sensible enough to force these two reasonably idiosyncratic reads to the top of the list?
- the second tier is [iavh (who is VOCAL on d1 usually), hu tao, naerys]. It feels a bit unnatural for scum!yimmy to leave the more charismatic townreads out of their top tier when the top tier itself is very idiosyncratic? like I just think they ~believed~ those top reads.
- kkfc is the most extensively note-taken read and it's just a massive hard townread without batting an eyelid. this just feels like a whack way to treat a scumbuddy

yimmy & kkfc's interactions in general early on just don't feel all that partnery unless yimmy committed to starting the kkfcfc (kkfc fan club) or whatever.

I'll do more on this later but someone else pls expand on yimmy

for the record, i think yimmy is a passable lim today, but i think i'd prefer someone in {iavh,rn,dragons}

[the worst]

fair enough. i can be wrong on this i guess, i just don't feel like yimmy is scummier than anyone else in that pool.

[the worst]

i'd also rather yimmy be flipped to me being flipped. i guess. lol.

[the worst]

i can see bob's line of thought when he goes into this. you can view it as town v town for sure, but i just don't see it as solid enough to go either way. like, i can easily see a universe where it's just proactive scum play on the same level where i can see them being town. not all wolves will attempt to avoid talking to each other though the nature of the interaction and the carefree posts put me on the same level as bob i.e. not worth voting today especially with the v/la.

me too. i like bob's read there a lot (ftr bob is like, 110% town regardless of his claim). i would just like it to be challenged because i don't really get the dragons townreads i'm seeing.

did naerys jailkeep someone last night? is there a specific reasoning behind why they're town to you @Hu Tao, or is it just a solid read you have on the slot?

naerys kept bob last night. they're pretty near confirmed, as long as we have a vig in play.

[the worst]

naerys isn't totally cleared, but i'd put her at a fairly similar scum probability to hu tao, maybe slightly less likely. firmly in the "this is total moonlogic and there's several universes which make more sense first" bucket.

bbm seems like a fairly solid vig kill, and a fairly iffy scum nk. i think his only readily available read at the end was that bob was scum on d2. like maybe naerys makes that kill because bbm's read on them is non-obvious but it just feels quite remote compared to the idea of naerys just being town who jailkept bob. not impossible, it's just a decision which is totally intentionally not optimal with the hopes of getting by via dayplay and like. idk. maybe.

[the worst]

when i take a step back and align myself i get the yimmy lim a bit more.

i think today's optimal lim is somewhere at the bottom of this list, at some point my personal reads kick in too.

me (insincerely)
bob
naerys
hu tao
brad (pass til d4)
me (sincerely)
yimmy
iavh
dragons
nurse

[the worst]

when i take a step back and align myself i get the yimmy lim a bit more.

i think today's optimal lim is somewhere at the bottom of this list, at some point my personal reads kick in too.

me (insincerely)
bob
naerys
hu tao
brad (pass til d4)
me (sincerely)
yimmy
iavh
dragons
nurse

And how exactly do you have me at the bottom of your "reads" list?

you've done nothing to solve since I got here, haven't engaged with the things I've brought up, your iso is very flat, your role adds nothing to the game. idk if you're scum but I don't think you should be around in f3-4 and I worry that you're on course to be.

[the worst]

If I'm being uncharitable - why shouldn't you be there? :p

[the worst]

I think brad's vote for you makes a lot of sense in a way I can't explain rn

[the worst]

frustratingly I don't think there's really an option outside of you & yimmy rn I feel stuck trying to make one

[the worst]

you & brad* sorry

[the worst]

they are. i'm voting dragons i think, i'd also be very keen to vote rn. i'm talking more in terms of people who others are willing to vote

[the worst]

VOTE: Nurse

there's 36 hours til deadline. i'll probably be here tomorrow and i trust in my ability to crack this game open there.

if anyone is willing to give me any level of clout - please get off brad. that is a really bad lim at this exact moment, and we can explore why on d4 imo.
i'd like, rather not do yimmy, but i get that.

if anyone else is keen for dragons please @ me but i'm realising i was vanity wagoning

[the worst]

iambrad (3): Naerys, iamveryhappy, Random Nurse
Yimmy (2): Hu Tao, iambrad
Random Nurse (2): Yimmy, the worst
the worst (1): Save The Dragons

Not Voting (1): bob3141

RN's vote on brad is by far the worst
i think the yimmy wagon is well intended, and like in the absolute worst case scenario i'll go there, but it's not my favourite.

if anyone is seriously considering brad here, not just doing a policy thing because they didn't like his predecessor, can they please reach out? i'll be in the thread a bunch til deadline that is not the right lim

[the worst]

yimmy - could i check where your read on dragons is at? he's a good poster, was there a particular moment when your third eye opened and you were shot down by how towny he is?

if this isn't helpful & you need to sleep we have time and stuff. sorry this is kinda overtly pockety but i have a feeling you may be today's elim kinda by default and i'm not like.. thrilled about it..

[the worst]

i pocket as town all the time it's a bad habit.

[the worst]

i'm aware i'm being disruptive and interacting with you + a couple of other people in a way which is like, a bit strange, i can explain a lot more on d4.

this game feels extremely solvable, and we have a vig who can help clean up the poe. i'm just very critical that dragons & rn seem to be getting a very free run rn.

how married are you to your yimmy vote & how do you feel about rn?

[the worst]

hmm. i guess if i were scum, rn would be firmly in the bucket of like "people i should turn people on to win the game".

do you have a read on dragons atp?

[the worst]

you're in my "d3 pass" range, not outside of my poe. i think the consensus poe is flawed, and i think this plist is collectively more able to get a good solve on d4. especially if we get a decent lim today (any of like - yimmy, iavh, dragons, rn or like tbh i'd be a passable lim; you would be fine but similarly just not in a preference); plus vig shot in the same pool.

thing is i don't really want a wide poe. i just don't think i vibe the popular lim choices all that much.

actually i'm still paranoid on bob but because of the concept of the scum strat "keep the poe as wide open as possible" i've kind of just quelled it for my own sake LOL

i don't like meta casing very much because it's boring and convincing, but bob is easily the read i am the least stressed about. he's super town.

[the worst]

naerys uses she pronouns

our hard townreads are very shuffled, i'm pretty firmly bob > naerys > hu tao right now. perhaps hu tao is the person of the three who i'm concerned is the biggest threat, since honestly their dayplay has been really towny.

i think my concern abt rn's play here is similar to my concern about his claim. it's solid, and i could believe it, but it's really nowhere near clearing fmpov. i might also be a bit perplexed that he's just under so many people's radars and intent on shining a light on him, moreso than actually explicitly scumreading him. but i don't have any hard silver bullet scumreads. rn seems a bit checked out & is anti-charisma so i'm wary that if he does go the whole way, he's probably pretty not that hard to swing a lim in a f3 situation.

might go have a look at yimmy's read on rn again

[the worst]

whatever

this is like... the same as yimmy's read posts d1 - i just find it really perplexing reading this and thinking that people are thinking this is a fabricated read. it's unpopular, unlikely to go through, and is so semantic and unstructured i think it's more of a "got you" feeling than a fake read.

if i put this through a "rn is anticharismatic town" lens, it's also like, not containing a lot of things which make me go "rn is working from a scum mindset". but also i'm glad someone else is not townreading rn!

maybe this is a thing
VOTE: iavh

[the worst]

am i missing something here

[the worst]

dragons is v/la, i think if we go there we need to be ready to lim

[the worst]

dragons seems to lose a lot of steam as scum as the game goes on. he did things d1 (though imo nothing clearing?), scum was guiltied d2, and he's away d3. he's currently v/la.

his current contributions aren't satisfactory for him to be townread from my perspectiev, and nothing i've seen has convinced me on it. he needs to be pressured more to be accurately readable. he's also getting a lot of townreads for reasons that have me scratching my head a bit.

[the worst]

which isn't to shade him for activity or for being busy irl. he is acting in a way which is consistent with his scumgame though. he's a very very valuable slot to keep pressure on.

[the worst]

i think the way he's played today would have been a very strange, very poor decision if he was the last member of the mafia. i do think he needs more scrutiny, but i think just blindly eliminating him today is a bad decision.

not a tonne of people agree with me here. if you don't that's totally fair, can you talk to me about how you feel about dragons, yimmy, iavh or rn?

[the worst]

KatyKimFanClub

149 is a very good post
226 is a quality post
298 is good again
324 is super valid
327 is a little defensive i think. I guess it’s because bella said it was shade. That makes sense
338 i feel like kkfc maybe should’ve backed off after he sorted civil. I wouldn’t have either though
341 yeah this is town
383 is town
384 it does
386 is good
390-391 is funny

so reads are (not ordered in tiers):

town

: std,

kkfc

light town: iavh, hu tao, naerys
null: starfire, bellaphant
light scum: rn, greeting, pc
scum: cs (this might not actually be a good read. i do not like reading his posts)

naerys - yimmy already talked through their kkfc townread here and basically formed a kkfc fan club. to me, this doesn't really look like a read on a partner. what do you think?

[the worst]

I think such amount of trust at that stage is strange.

me too. i think pouring that much trust, publicly, into a scumbuddy that early is pretty surreal.

[the worst]

VOTE: dragons if i'm here for d4 i'll do some more work on iavh i'm sheeping bob there

yimmy is a remote compromise lim for me. i'm kind of confused that nobody else is seeing what i'm seeing there and like if i'm right i think i'm making this game harder by dooming myself.

if we misyeet today i'd appreciate not being vigged tonight because i think i'm quite capable of solving this game tomorrow, and i think it's going to become very obvious that i'm town.

[the worst]

will expand tmo

[the worst]

i think it's very possible rn is indeed just town and i am a big clown

[the worst]

i think it's very possible rn is indeed just town and i am a big clown

If you know my meta then you know I am Town this game.

My main is Wake1 (was Wake88).

I know your name but not your meta, I've read you in a couple of games but don't have a particularly good grasp

[the worst]

i'd prefer dragons be vigged tonight, if that happens i think i can solve pretty easily amongst whoever is left. if y'all aren't satisfied with me on d4 i can probably find a solve that involves my lim given we have a tonne of people left alive

it seems possible that naerys is out of shots, rn's lazy modifier has kicked in, bob may or may not be out of shots, so we may be stuck just praying

[the worst]

nevermind rn is town

rn - we don't have time to do me today. Brad is the bad choice, Yimmy is the ok choice, dragons is the best choice.

clock is running down

[the worst]

I've worked out what Brad was seeing in RN lol this is another read I can back up d4

this game either goes one way or the other way I'm so excited

[the worst]

Though I guess there is the third way. Mmmm that would suck.

[the worst]

brad is a really bad lim today please trust me i'll explain d4. i don't like the yimmy lim either but it's better.

we could flashwagon dragons, unfortunately iavh you'd be my second pick today but i'm not the king of the universe

[the worst]

i did try that it got about as much enthusiasm as the dragons wagon

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VOTE: iavh

[the worst]

4v9 is a very very very hard thing to get approved in the normal queue and we already have too much scum power for it, i would be very surprised.

iavh where are you at with this game? i haven't seen you at all yet

[the worst]

i'll be here before deadline and am willing to hammer yimmy if nobody will do dragons or iavh

not overjoyed

[the worst]

4v9 is a very very very hard thing to get approved in the normal queue and we already have too much scum power for it, i would be very surprised.

iavh where are you at with this game? i haven't seen you at all yet

does scum have a lot of power? a gunsmith and a jailkeeper is enough imo to give 4 scum, but i mostly play all vanilla 3v10 setups

scum have roles which actively disrupt town power, which is consistently limited. little town power on n1 seems to be a theme of the setup, limited shots seems to be a theme of the setup. scum doctor disrupts gunsmith & vig, scum rolestopper disrupts all town power which is devastating given we have gated shots.

this is a pretty high power game in general, but 4:9 has such a low town ev, you really need to see setups where town can get quite a lot done at night quite quickly. i'm just not feeling that this is a setup where that can happen.

with a traitor, it might be closer, but even with declared town power i think it'd just be way too scumsided to get approved

[the worst]

Gut's screaming at me it's either Brad or worst, but no consolidation there. I'm OK with a Yimmy lim but I WANT an IAB lim to answer those questions.

It FEELS like there's two Scum left, but there should only be ONE left, NO there IS ONE left because of my Lazy modifier so at least ONE of worst/brad is Town but I can't fucking tell WHO.

locktown

i'll fill u in on this tmo

[the worst]

if your read on the gamestate is correct, there's very little difference in me telling you in 1:8 to me telling you in 1:6. i can't expand on what i'm doing right now without messing up town's odds of winning. i think i can talk about it a lot more on d4.

for the record i can see exactly why you're reading the game the way you're reading the game, rn

[the worst]

i nearly choked on my coffee

do you agree that bob is town? hu tao is a greyer area for me but i think i trust bob to read them correctly.
iab wasn't comfortable claiming but has claimed vt.
nurse seems really really uninformed this phase; what's got you paranoid?

[the worst]

we don't run those here often actually, i'd run one

[the worst]

make it three, best of two

iavh can i convince you to vote elsewhere than brad? there is a bit of "trust me~" involved here sorry

[the worst]

i didn't catch that, but i think you & i are two of very few people who are seriously sceptical of iavh here so you've got my ear.

[the worst]

brad & i are on iavh, if rn would join us that's 3. i don't think i've seen anyone else who'd join that over yimmy which is... aahhh

[the worst]

I'm thinking about other things
such as

relatable content


so uh with your vote...

[the worst]

yimmy is e-2 right? this phase isn't over yet but it doesn't have long left, i'm more interested in checking what your intentions are than asking you to move now anyway tbh

[the worst]

lemme check this

[the worst]

unofficial

Yimmy (4): Hu Tao, Naerys, bob3141, Random Nurse [E-1]
the worst (2): Save The Dragons, Random Nurse
iamveryhappy (2): iambrad, the worst
iambrad (1): iamveryhappy
Random Nurse (1): Yimmy

Not Voting (0):

good catch, i can hammer before deadline

[the worst]

sorry - i'm at 1 vote, just dragons.

[the worst]

i think yimmy is town and i'll hammer if we need. everyone is already going to fight me so it's win/win.

[the worst]

i think

yimmy is town

and

i'll hammer if we need

. everyone is already going to fight me so it's win/win.

ok
can't we just not get someone out if yimmy is town.

probably not. there's a bit of an impasse about whether or not yimmy is town, and i haven't really been able to get through with anyone.

thing is - there's an impasse with EVERYONE in the poe. most people would be ok with brad, but he's not today's lim. i think a few people would be ok with me but others are giving me a pass for this phase. same with yimmy, same with you, same with dragons.

i think it's ok if we leave brad or i alive longer, because i think we're both fairly trivially solvable later in the game. i don't see you or yimmy becoming more clearable later in the game. i also think folks are taking dragons off the table wayyy too easily but that's not getting much love.


also if rn is correct & there is no vig, we never no-lim today. liming in 1:8 puts us into 1:6, 1:4, 1:2 (final 3), with 4 lims in total. if we don't lim today, then tomorrow we're in 1:7, then 1:5, then 1:3 (final 4), with 3 lims in total. town's winrate is much higher with 4 lims + final 3, than 3 lims + final 4

[the worst]

good question - iavh are you unwilling to vote yimmy at all? or are you waiting for yimmy to come & advance their read on you?

[the worst]

i'm really sorry if nobody else finds this interesting, but just dawned on me that it's actually higher ev% (assuming random lims) for town in the POE to self-hammer today rather than no lim

there's some parts of this that aren't 100% accurate but iavh asked the question and i thought it was a fun theoretical exercise




with lims in the POE

Code: Select all

11.11%	day 3: 1/9 chance to win; 8/9 chance to go to n3
00.00%	night 3: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d4
14.28%	day 4: 1/7 chance to win; 6/7 chance to go to n4
00.00%	night 4: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
20.00%	day 5: 1/5 chance to win; 4/5 chance to go to n5
00.00%	night 5: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
33.33%	day 6: 1/3 chance to win; 2/3 chance to lose.

------
78.72%	chance of town win
21.28%	chance of scum win

no lim d3, then random lims:

Code: Select all

00.00%	day 3: no elimination, 9/9 chance to go into n3
00.00%	night 3: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d4
12.50%	day 4: 1/8 chance to win; 7/8 chance to go to n4
00.00%	night 4: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
16.67%	day 5: 1/6 chance to win; 4/5 chance to go to n5
00.00%	night 5: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
25.00%	day 6: 1/4 chance to win; 3/4 chance to lose.

------
54.17%	chance of town win
45.83%	chance of scum win

with a guaranteed town lim d3 (i.e. town self-hammers):

Code: Select all

00.00%	day 3: town self-hammers; 9/9 chance to go to n3
00.00%	night 3: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d4
14.28%	day 4: 1/7 chance to win; 6/7 chance to go to n4
00.00%	night 4: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
20.00%	day 5: 1/5 chance to win; 4/5 chance to go to n5
00.00%	night 5: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
33.33%	day 6: 1/3 chance to win; 2/3 chance to lose.

------
67.61%	chance of town win
32.39%	chance of scum win

[the worst]

maybe this guy is town

or mafia is just slow rolling and refusing to widen the poe because of the threat of it bouncing back. otherwise, the only two people who don't fit this criteria is worst and the dragon man.

every single lim here feels icky but the only reason dragons feels icky is because he's vla, not because he doesn't make sense as scum.

unfortunately i couldn't find a single other person who was willing to vote him. he's getting a lot of free pass because of d1 conversations which i honestly just can't pass as unaligned.

[the worst]

i did the addition wrong sorry but the general gist of the theory is right

If this game is 9:4 I'm going to have words with dragoneater.

if it's 9:4 i'm very very very curious to see what the reviewers say. i've played one 4:9 closed game with nightkills on here, it wasn't a normal, and it was widely regarded as a big mistake.

[the worst]

intent to hammer

talked myself into something

[the worst]

unofficial

Yimmy (4): Hu Tao, Naerys, bob3141, Random Nurse [E-1]
iamveryhappy (2): iambrad, the worst
the worst (1): Save The Dragons
iambrad (1): iamveryhappy
Random Nurse (1): Yimmy

Not Voting (0):

good catch, i can hammer before deadline

this is accurate still

VOTE: Yimmy

[the worst]

ah didn't see the new page cool

[the worst]

please kill dragons & iavh, brad should be pretty easy to read tomorrow
rn is town, bob is town, naerys is probably town
hu tao should be town, i trust bob to get them right

[the worst]

At this point we might be better off letting this play out vanilla. Not exactly my decision to make I guess.

[the worst]

I think that night kill is deceptively illuminating and I'll put my enthusiasm today into considering whether iavh or dragons are the last scum.

[the worst]

why does iambrad need to go today?

waiting for him & hu tao to check in mostly

[the worst]

VOTE: dragons still voting with my heart here :shrug:

[the worst]

Just restating this

Dragons really struggles to keep momentum up as scum.

Dragons did not townpost on day one. He posted well (always does) and had good tone, but he did not do anything that is unaligned with flipped scum and he didn't really do anything that's outstandingly towny.

I just finished a game with scum!Dragons where I completely missed him for the same stuff y'all are townreading him for and I'm telling y'all he needs to go.

[the worst]

I personally think it's either the worst or RN as did bob

could be the worst. don't think it's rn.

+1 y'all can flip me if you need to but I'm increasingly concerned and exhausted that everyone is overlooking dragons

[the worst]

I was not softing cop and would be totally wild to soft cop in this set-up. My third eye is open with this set-up tho and there is something i think I'm seeing that I'm not saying.

[the worst]

you're a distant third option for me, your pred is townier than iavh & dragons and I liked the way you went about claiming yesterday. there's just scummier players here. why should I be more paranoid of you?

[the worst]

i'm flying later today & will be v/la til mid september. i won't be expanding on what i was talking about wrt becoming obvious town unless it becomes necessary - i misinterpreted something but it still doesn't behoove me or my wincon to go into it.

my solve is pretty static. nurse is town, and i think there's a very high chance hu tao is town, i think it's very likely naerys is town and they remain potentially clearable. i have nothing on brad, but he is the player of the bottom three who i like the most. my read on iavh is frighteningly close to null except that i like some stuff from him tonally. i get that dragons isn't posting. not posting is part of his scum meta. i also understand d2 was short & he was v/la d3. but his iso is absolutely blank of anything containing nuance or clearing interactions with scum (despite having interactions with now-flipped scum which look closer to distancing than organic).

i think it's kind of disappointing that it just like.... makes sense to people.... that i would risk my game on a gambit which provably manifests itself as failed in f7, as the last scum, but i also understand there isn't a tonne to clear me. i don't really have an opinion on my predecessor. i think there's a lens you can look through to see that i'm townsiding here, but it's a niche lens which i'm not interested in explaining, and as scum i would still be motivated to town-side here so what's the point.


so yeah, not particularly motivated to fight against my elimination that hard, but i would love for every person to promise me that dragons is yeeted before f3. i know that if i'm wrong, a f3 in that reality is some combination [iavh, brad, rn, naerys]. in that world i'd want to do a lot of work in brad & iavh. but does anyone actually think this game is solvable with dragons alive?

[the worst]

Dragons isn't technically lurking - he missed a phase & was v/la for a phase. My issues are like, maybe a layer deeper.

1- He hasn't done anything particularly town indicative. A lot of his reads on d1 lack nuance or visible trajectory.

2- I can find a reason to townread every other player in the game, except to some extent iavh (i'll also concede i haven't tried all that hard with iavh yet because i don't feel that strongly about him compared to dragons atp). I think, especially to me, dragons has missed a really unfortunate part of the game where i do kinda feel like the playerlist is mostly cohesive? i said it yesterday, i myself am probably the most disruptive force right now which tends to make me think that scum are inactive. on d3, i just didn't have any sense that someone was trying to secure mislims, and that is essential when you need 4 to win the game. brad is the closest person to this for me, and he's been deliberately refusing relatively "easy" angles (he's defiant against easy townreads, he talked me around on keeping rn in the poe for kinda meh reasons). i do tend to just think that scum is low-touch this game.

3- While he does have valid reasons for having been away, he shows enough knowledge of the game to know that his being absent is an issue, but shows no interest in contributing anything towards solving the game. I find it hard to believe that town-dragons can't muster a pop-in that shows some kind of insight, even if it's extremely outdated.

you know i literally was asleep for all of d2 and was v/la for much of d3 right

i am pretty far behind will try to post thoughts soon

i get that he seems like he's burned out. this doesn't mean that he's automatically burned out town. i've like literally just spent a game defending him because he just seemed burned out but kinda nullish alignment-wise, and he turned out to be scum.

4- He is just not comfortably & tightly solvable in this game. I can't look at his POE and be like "here's the thing which makes him clearly scum", and nobody has tried to give me the "here's the thing that makes him clearly town". He's just the definition of null except that I'm getting a different ~~vibe~~ to everyone else. This is a perfect vector for a town loss in f3.

[the worst]

2305 & 2306 aren't in response to anything on this page either like dragons is reading something and just has no thoughts on solving the game. he doesn't find it scummy that someone is pushing him for being v/la. he doesn't acknowledge that it's something that does actually, funnily enough, resemble his scum meta. it's a vague defense and then he provides an excuse for non-content despite having had some apparently fairly strong reads on d1 which he's lost interest in?

if i'm just dumbly tunneled i'm gonna feel so bad but the more i align myself with this version of reality the more it feels

[the worst]

I'm aware that scum!me is looking for 3 miselims and turning dragons into an easy target is something I need to do to cinch this game. That makes sense. I also think I'm difficult to comfortably solve, in a similar way to dragons and there's some sense in me also not reaching f3.

Generally agreed rn/brad about iavh, his lack of enthusiasm here is a bit of a pink flag but he's also had some moments that resemble some kind of nuanced thought which is either real or he's put effort into faking. Lmk if I need to dig through his iso again (I'm hoping y'all just believe me because he posts a lot (mood))

I did recently replace into a newbie game where he was so checked out/unthreatening, he had claimed cop d1 as a mason, had his partner shot n1, and was left alive until n3. So its not impossible for town-iavh to check out as well and I don't think its nearly as red a flag as dragons' apparent freezing here.

[the worst]

I think my poe roughly matches the path I'd have to tread as scum now that I think about it

tw
hu tao
rn
naerys
---
brad
iavh
dragons


I just can't overstate the gaps between Brad, iavh & Dragons. if this game just ends with nuking [iavh, dragons, me] I think I can live with that reality - if y'all just lim me here then brad for an f3 of iavh, dragons, rn/naerys? -- I think we're in a pretty dicey spot ngl

[the worst]

Why do you tr me over naerys?

A few reasons but the main ones are that I liked your early game, you don't really seem aligned with flipped scum, and I trust Bob wrt the way stuff went down d3 - doesn't seem like that much of a pocket dynamic y'all seem to mutually benefit from a kind of like complementary relationship in this game, if that makes sense?

Naerys is confirmed town if it comes out that she protected Bob. If that doesn't come to pass, I think there are like wild moonlogic worlds where I guess she could maybe be scum but it'd require that combination of improbable mechanics, seeming super uninformed & quality dayplay which I just don't think is super common.

You two aren't that far apart in my reads tbh

[the worst]

Hey good morn-- oh

[the worst]

Good work pushing that StD vote through everyone fun fact. I was vig and shot BB but I'm assuming scum shot jailkept Bob so it looked like no vig

The BBM kill was so weird after bob's guilty, I was rolling the dice on there being a vig. I also thought the way Bob played coy around Brad's claim meant there was a pretty good chance he had the vig pinned - when he tried to bait scum with the "am I still going? am I out of shots?" I kind of realised y'all had the two tpr hood thing going on.

I was trying to act like I had too much information d3 to obfuscate any hints that were against you in the thread, and I thought Brad had picked up on the same thing and was following that lead.

When I saw bob's flip, I realised I was either wrong or you were an even night vig - but if you were a vig then naerys was cleared so it was kind of in my interests to survive until d5 so you could be confirmed and I could talk through this a bit bc I think in hindsight it would've been clear I was acting in a way scum just should never have.

I also thought bob's death meant someone hadn't realised your slot had higher than average vig equity but apparently nobody else saw that and I just overplayed the heck out of this one

[the worst]

Y'all are too kind, thank you. This was a really fun group to play with.

[the worst]

Paranoia is really something.

I was seeing Scum in everyone, LOL.

That's what I loved about your d3 tbh - you were really active, but were clearly trying to find scum, totally oblivious to all the mechanical subtext (which is what scum would've needed to solve)

[the worst]

no redactions

gg

sorry about flaking a bit i got pretty busy and couldn't contribute

You were really good. Irl happens. Even at the end I was posting stuff insisting you were scum, then rereading it like ".....I guess? maybe?"

[the worst]

Everyone has a different style and I wouldn't want to like, impose suggestions based on my style upon you. I think your play around the fakeclaim made sense, and it did cause a lot of chaos. Chaos is just a risk/return thing in mafia. Unfortunately, KKFC has x ray vision and caught both naerys' jk soft and low-key saw an investigate target coming??? while scum weren't really tuning into the fake claims all that much, so fake claims ended up confusing our neighbours more than they confused scum.

I don't know if this is insightful, because it is very idiosyncratic. You ended up looking really towny for everything. To my mind, if there was a vig (high probability from the BBM kill, even higher to me from the way Bob approached d3), then scum needed to take them out. Scum knew there was a vig as soon as BBM flipped. I think there was enough subtext for scum to notice Hu Tao on d3 - the fact you didn't just miss Hu Tao, but also just were not looking for that subtext at all, made me think there was a very low chance you were playing a scum game against this uphill climb.

I also think I went from being immediately mislimable to being really awkward to mislim & probably very hard to know how to handle. You suspecting there could be 4 scum because of the way brad, HT and I were talking around each other, then continuing to press me was probably the towniest thing anyone could've done on day 3.

This was a very weird game, but I think you played a very towny game.