Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[Ausuka]

Votecount 4.2

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate. Day 4 ends in (expired on 2024-01-16 21:32:18).

Votecount

Pavowski (2)

- Gamma Emerald, DragonEater70

DragonEater70 (1)

- Flavor Leaf

geraintm (1)

- Hu Tao

Not Voting (4)

- cw357, geraintm, Pavowski, Purplemango

Flavour

[Flavor Leaf]

Presumably if we limmed Dragon and you die tonight, we'd be in mountainous from there out right? With hopefully 1 scum left to find out of ... what ... we'd have 5 alive tomorrow?

Shit if Dragon is scum and you shoot true the game could end tonight

yeah, that's a big reason why I think this is probably the right play.

Tomorrow, worst case scenario, is 3-2, all mountainous (unless DE isn't the scum PR and it was a fake claim, but regardless, it wouldnt matter, i think they are the SCUM PR if scum.)

And I think that's solid.

And then at the very least, you get to play the game without Dragon/FL duo, which will open up gamestate a lot.

If DE's claim is a fake claim at this point my brain is gonna break into itty bitty pieces

i mean, it would just be a Roleblocker if it's fake, or the partner would be Blocker/JK.

I think Occam's Razor is DE is just a Scum JK.

[Pavowski]

I still don't get what I'd be scared of as scum? As scum I would just say "cool I can continue sheeping Flavor" and know that you are pocketed

I thought about shooting you

Hmm I'd be down to be shot

I have a self confirming role
VOTE: cw

I also stand by this not being a 'self confirming role', and this was said to help get through this day phase.

Sorry for double post.

Could you clarify "I stand by this not being a 'self confirming role'"? The grammar of it is messing with me.

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor if you shoot me you should probably announce that so I get conf towned

Like incase you get nightkilled

^

an inconsistency

how would I get killed

[Flavor Leaf]

I still don't get what I'd be scared of as scum? As scum I would just say "cool I can continue sheeping Flavor" and know that you are pocketed

I thought about shooting you

Hmm I'd be down to be shot

I have a self confirming role
VOTE: cw

I also stand by this not being a 'self confirming role', and this was said to help get through this day phase.

Sorry for double post.

Could you clarify "I stand by this not being a 'self confirming role'"? The grammar of it is messing with me.

Stopping my kill does not confirm them. It just confirms they have something to be able to block my kill.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Geraint - Please trust me if you are town here onto Dragon.

[Pavowski]

Flavor if you shoot me you should probably announce that so I get conf towned

Like incase you get nightkilled

^

an inconsistency

how would I get killed

Wasn't he still being cheeky about his role at that point? Like he hadn't full-claimed JK? Or is my perception of time off

[Flavor Leaf]

There was a time when HPE had 3 votes on them, Dragon, Myself, and Hu Tao.

Then Lap joined on, and Dragon immediately moved over to Abnegation.

Dragon and HPE have some ties there.

I also think Pavowski and Kyouko have some ties together. They both actually look pretty rough with the flips we have in hindsight rereading Day 1.

HPE

Pavowski

Kyouko

DragonEater

Is a pool

Idk what it’s a pool of yet, but it’s a pool.

it's a pool of 2 scum. I noticed the HPE-Drag ties there too.

Yeah, I'm locked in today.

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor if you shoot me you should probably announce that so I get conf towned

Like incase you get nightkilled

^

an inconsistency

how would I get killed

Wasn't he still being cheeky about his role at that point? Like he hadn't full-claimed JK? Or is my perception of time off

he didnt claim at all that day, he waited until the next day.

They were posturing, and was trying to get me to confirm if I was vigging them that day phase, which is a big reason I shut down and went nope, not claiming where im vigging, and I knew I was vigging HPE from real early on Day 2.

[Pavowski]

Putting mech issues behind us *does* sound tempting, and we'll have to solve the question of Dragon sooner or later anyway

No need to rush it though.

[Flavor Leaf]

Fun fact:

When Flavor said I should vig cw, I wanted to respond with "I agree, you should vig cw tonight while I stay home like a good townie", but I didn't because I thought that moght make people think I'm actually the vig

Anyhow, VOTE: Flavor

He's not a N1 vig.

ok now this is an interesting twist

on the bright side this confirms at least one (if not both) scum in flavor/de since if de is lying and flavor flips town then de is scum

but I feel optimistic both will be scum

You think Dragon/Flavor are putting on scumtheatre over vig shots? I mean ... if they're scum together wouldn't the possible presence of another actual vig out there kinda blow this up?

No way DE/Flavor murder Abne overnight as scum partners, imo

this is very good by Pav.

Pav is the only slot this game that I've trusted in a way where I dont think theyre actually trying to get me to trust them, like at least not in a regular way. They've been actively conversing with me in a way that feels town/town, and they have been even before I claimed Vig. this goes back to the 2 of us dealing with CW together on Day 1.

[Flavor Leaf]

I promise I'm not deliberately spamming the thread, but I hate wall posting. Between my last post and some notes I took at the end of d1 when I got home and the thread was locked have me really considering Purple/Dragon as two of the three scum (It would be 3 in a normal, right?). And given they know each other IRL...

scum!Purple / scum!Dragon works
town!Purple / scum!Dragon works
scum!Purple / town!Dragon doesn't work
town!Purple / town!Dragon could work but that means I have to find 3 scum in HPE, Kyouko, Joy, CW, Gera, Hu Tao. Possible? Yes. Likely? Feels like no.

Purple, what's your take on Dragon right now?

I don’t get the relation between the two.

Dragon was goading purple into voting on Day 1, though, and i think purple lack of voting is kinda townie

There's no relation

Pav isn't making sense and is just trying to divert attention elsewhere, IMO

ouch, not a good look. I actually think Pav makes a lot of sense, especially in hindsight. I was thinking this before I reread this post. This is a pure discredit post, and what was happening to Lap the day before too.

[Flavor Leaf]

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

they saw it!!!!

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

so did CW if Kyouko flips town. Dragon Eater HAD to do something to become townier, so they gambited.

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

I'm not going to pretend to understand the logic of why this post means Kyo or DE or *both* could be scum, but the more I sit with it the more scum!Dragon makes sense to me

VOTE: Dragon

good on Pav.

Pav and Hu Tao

you got it boss, see y'all tomorrow

Pav's ISO has quite a bit of townie energy imo and there's a few standout posts this one particularly likes, such as 335 and 869. In general Pav feels very genuine in alot of his posts and points and this one is happy with putting him down as town. Though this one also finds it weird how you tried to shoot down 870 ngl.

On the other hand this one has fucking nothing for Hu Tao LMAOOOO. This one couldn't reallllly get anything of note out of reading her ISO and when it took a look at its last games with her, Smuggler's Port and love child, it realized that it just cannot read her well because these ISOs are like all fucking identical. And she was town in SP and scum in LC so like!!! Fuck!!! This one still wants to put her down as a scumlean for her lame pushes on me earlier but that's really about it. Going to look more thoroughly later for sure, though.

This was HPE actively being helped in thread by DE to get a better standing and look like HPE was doing something. HPE gave almost nothing all game, but happens to give it when Dragon asks for it, and HPE calls them Boss even. Like, in the moment, that's fine. In hindsight, the way HPE acted towards DE is exactly what a scum partner following the lead scum does.

[Flavor Leaf]

Kyouko posted the cop soft that Thom did

hilariously blinded by a pocket this game vibes. It happens to us all

[Flavor Leaf]

Kyouko posted the cop soft that Thom did

hilariously blinded by a pocket this game vibes. It happens to us all

Can someone voting dragon explain that? I don't see it

oops, this was suppoised to be the attached quote^

[Flavor Leaf]

A Dragon->Geraint team makes sense why they couldn't kill last night because Geraint was a high chance of being shot by me as well as Dragon.

Yeah, I think Dragon fade today leads to a Geraint Vig shot, game over.

[Flavor Leaf]

if dragon gets vigged, then it's game over for that scum team since Geraint was likely next.

[Flavor Leaf]

i am vt

not opposed to a hu tao wagon, who's feeling it?

maybe hu tao/dragon/hpe is scumteam?

this is possible.

[Flavor Leaf]

I wish I could see HPE alignment without having to flip them, lol. that's a big key slot here for me right now.

this made it obvious I was gonna vig there, i think.

[Flavor Leaf]

This one is warming up to the idea of scum!Pav but it definitely feels like we're overlooking the lurkers even as we say "well there could be scum there..........."

I wish I could see HPE alignment without having to flip them, lol. that's a big key slot here for me right now.

also you could just shoot me anyway

this is huge.

HPE was not afraid of being shot because they knew they could be protected.

DE also likes gambits, and I can tell probably wanted to pull one.

I just think everything is lining up for DE scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

i also kind of agree with their sentiment, because i have reasons to town read every slot in the game as well.

exactly
I'd rather not to vote for dragoneater70, you, HPE, and joyboy at least for now

eww

Let me explain my thought process on Pav, because I sorta intentionally didn't explain it earlier as I'd wanted to see reactions to my vote on him.

Day 1 he was being voted/shaded for some eary game weirdness which I was willing to ignore as I could see coming from town. Then he made more posts which came across as towny.

However today with Abnegation flipping green and me re-evaluating my scumread on HPE (I think HPE is nulltown right now FWIW), I realized I'd been most likely townreading scum. And while his posts *sound* towny, they are definitely NOT impossible to fake, which makes him the likeliest person to be the scum I'd been townreading. He *sounds* like he's trying to solve the game, but when I actually read his posts I cannot an actual thought process about people's alignments to which I could say "yeah, this person actually had this thought and is actually trying to figure things out".

VOTE: Pavowski
Think this post hit the nail on the head for me especially with how poor Pav's D2 posting has been.

yeah, HPE is completely playing around and in sync with Dragon, they are flowing around the game together.

[Flavor Leaf]

Hu Tao, can you talk about the PV/CW - Hu Tao/DragonEater dynamics to me? What are your thoughts on the 4 of you, not necessarily your read, but your thoughts on the 2 v 2 as a general thing.

I think that cw is probably town but will vote wrong tomorrow so he needs to go. Still a small chance he flips scum so better now then later. Pav seems to be the one who does soft defenses of cw so I think he could be the scum that wants cw alive for tomorrow.

In terms of Dragon and me. Could dragon ve pocketing me? Idk, I don't think so. Last time I played with dragon scum he was obvious and I called it day 1. I don't see that here. I think it's weird cw tries to push that me and dragon are a pair and his read seems very surface level which is why I think there is a chance cw flips scum.

I'm gonna locktown Hu Tao

So that makes 4 I'm never voting - Purple, Flavor, Hu Tao and myself.

Can you explain why Hu Tao is town? I agree with the points I'm reading from cw against Hu Tao, but I have been severely tunneled in this game up until today. Specifically you mentioned it looks like cw is opening ISOs and ignoring context, and maybe because I've been tunneled I'm missing the fact that context is missing?

I feel in isolation and without fact-checking them that the cw posts about scum!HT make sense. Flavor being conftown and Laplacian flipping town really turns this game upside down for me. I also noticed about Thomith a few days ago when looking at his ISO that from the way he talked about Hu Tao I'm pretty sure he was banking on investigating them. I haven't looked for their meta together yet but it might be HT had reason to believe that could happen if they've played together in games where Thomith was an investigative before

Yeah, this is really good observation.

In addition, Day 2 we were really never going to be able to agree on a scum fade because of the effort HPE, DE were putting in, and I do think HT has some scum potential as the 3rd here.

It's almost always Hu Tao or Geraint.


I actually have a VCA reasoning for why the team has a big chance of being HPE/DE/Hu Tao from Day 2 that I'll get into after my reread.

[Flavor Leaf]

Why is CW so hard to get?

Because scum and town both are defending. This means scum don’t want CW faded.

It implies that CW is scum, or town who is expected to help scum win.

I think that flip is best here.

Yeah!! This one still really wants cw here even if it thinks he's much more likely to be town than scum because it's super clear that he is NOT going to be even REMOTELY helpful to town when shit hits the fan. It's just moved to Pav because it seems like its literally just the two of us who are willing to commit to cw.

lol, might as well put CW as green on VC's.

[cw357]

ok i can see the case for dragon (not that i couldn't already lol)

flavor scumreads dragon, so dragon roleblocks flavor hoping not to get vigged while no killing for wifom purposes and to prevent pov. its a risky strategy to an extent and feels kind of dumb, so I feel hesitant to fully get behind it, but my one thought that tips me in the direction of dragon elim is this: Could, in not killing flavor despite flavor sring dragon, was dragon trying to get flavor to change his scumread on dragon? I'll give it some thought but dragon definitely has strong scum potential

[Hu Tao]

Thing is, I can see Vig + Cop vs JK

Vig + Cop + JK has the potential to win N1, which i don’t love.

I agree that seems strong for us. But scum probably have 2 strong prs left?