Open 902: Frienemies Blitz | Postgame

[humaneatingmonkey]

what's up nerds

[humaneatingmonkey]

what's the case against the three top wagons

someone young, beautiful, intelligent, and charming talk me into voting one of them

[humaneatingmonkey]

why

[humaneatingmonkey]

then why vote Dannflor, that's insane

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'd rather we move away from them all and go Black/Ganski

> wants to go Black/Ganski
> votes Dannflor

insane

[humaneatingmonkey]

why can't Black happen

you haven't even tried to convince me

maybe I'll vote, you don't know

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

Let's try this!

[humaneatingmonkey]

what's the case against Dann?

[humaneatingmonkey]

i'll read the game thread in 6 hours. no one do anything stupid before that!

[humaneatingmonkey]

why is python trying so hard to make me like them

with that fox, and that winking, and that witty banter

def sus

[humaneatingmonkey]

python can you instead explain your std read

[humaneatingmonkey]

you said he was wack when he scumread my slot

[humaneatingmonkey]

okay. is he scum?

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: python

[humaneatingmonkey]

good representation, python. it's a really good and fair representation of my progression. the way you said "ZZZ" is really sublime, as it's a really good description and i can really tell you're trying to read my slot and not just trying to cast me on a bad light.

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV can you tell me why python is town

[humaneatingmonkey]

i dont know their recent meta but in a game that i had with them, they were more proactive and hard-at-work trying to be the most pro-town looking player AS a serial killer. but that was a year ago, and recent games might have influenced them to be a bit more "loose" if scum.

I'll see you guys later.

[humaneatingmonkey]

you can see the self-preservation too? i thought it was just me.

sometimes, the obvious is enough to call it.

[humaneatingmonkey]

nerds, we gotta consolidate.

[humaneatingmonkey]

37 pages, let's do this.

[humaneatingmonkey]

alright look, i didn't read the game but instead slept because i was drunk

[humaneatingmonkey]

well im not catching up now, python can die

[humaneatingmonkey]

i have no context other than i had a python scumread immediately upon opening their iso

[humaneatingmonkey]

HEM, ranger claims pyth is mason

so is ranger mason?

[humaneatingmonkey]

just do it now, Jesus already died for your sins

[humaneatingmonkey]

it's probably bad play but "python is mason *leaves*" does not give me the assurance of a long-term relationship

[humaneatingmonkey]

psyche! i'm scum and you all fell for it!

[humaneatingmonkey]

I piss and shit all over the place.

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

This is totally random, and I will never explain myself.

[humaneatingmonkey]

What a strike to the gut, sorry guys. Thank you for sticking to that even though I tried my hardest to push against it

Selfawarewolf

[humaneatingmonkey]

Or self-aware wolf. My bets are on the latter.

It was kinda odd how you were trying to create a Black counterwagon around the time Python was the hot choice - and how you wre trying to move votes away from the slot while trying to create distance. In my head, it means you're most likely partnered. You had a town read on Python based on how off-the-hip they were despite recognizing that my progression on them was valid (valid, but irrelevant) and how Python was showing self-preservation (but it's all good because he was open about it - which I think is debatable). The lack of paranoia you have on the slot strikes me as odd.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Ranger, do you also want to game-throw today by telling us JacksonVirgo is mason, for real this time?

[humaneatingmonkey]

My rapper name is Chain-Limmed

Spoiler:

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV, if you think there's one on, one off - why are you pushing Ganski's slot exclusively as opposed to hunting inside it?

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV, if you think there's one on, one off - why are you pushing Ganski's slot exclusively as opposed to hunting inside it?

Why can't I do both?

Where's the both, in this scenario?

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV, if you think there's one on, one off - why are you pushing Ganski's slot exclusively as opposed to hunting inside it?

Why can't I do both?

Where's the both, in this scenario?

What do you mean?

Where's the evidence that you've been doing both - today?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Me asking questions will feel like gotcha because they're good questions about you and your alignment.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I scumread you, and I have good reasons why, and my reasons reflect the questions I have for you.

[humaneatingmonkey]

VC 1.15

Votecount 1.15

usesPython (4):

gob, Naerys, Dannflor, humaneatingmonkey

gob (3):

light_ganski, Black, Ranger

Dannflor (2):

usesPython, Doctor Drew

T-Bone (2):

davesaz, Save The Dragons

davesaz (1):

T-Bone

JacksonVirgo (1):

JacksonVirgo

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-01-29 17:40:53).

Mod notes:

• Combined mod ISO

The saddest part about this day is we're probably dead here anyways cause the only viable CW is gob and that only gets to 6 votes with light/Black/Ranger/Python/Drew/Dave since gob/Naerys/Dann/HEM/STD/T-Bone/JV all townread gob

Why would Python say this? I didn't even townread gob.
Then JV and Python started the Black counterwagon - with daveas.
Why won't they just do gob - if scum? Is gob scum?
Why is Python so sad?

I need someone with triple-digit IQ to weigh in on this.

[humaneatingmonkey]

> Triple-digit IQ
> Doctor

checks out.

But wouldn't this analysis of yours make JV and Dave look worse?

Look worse, how? What's your take on the game so far?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Is Gob implicated, in your opinion?

Because I'm presenting the votecount, the scum's very indicative post, and questions. I don't think they necessarily implicate gob, moreso bringing up valid questions on why it happened the way it did. If people townreading gob see this, and chime in, then we'll learn what they think about it.

So, do you think JV and Dave look bad here? What's your take on that?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Tinfoil hat:

If gob is town, then Python must really thought deepdown that he's telling the truth in #836 - as he could have done things differently if he thought he had the chance of pushing for a gob elimination.

Python's list of people who would go for Gob
- light/Black/Ranger/Python/Drew/Dave

Python's list of people who wouldn't vote for Gob
- gob/Naerys/Dann/HEM/STD/T-Bone/JV

Then everyone in the list of people who wouldn't vote for Gob is just town, and Python slipped.

[humaneatingmonkey]

*they/them

[humaneatingmonkey]

Because important fact: Python didn't go for gob, and went for Black instead. I think that's super indicative when their ass is on the line.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Is it possible they exaggerated to act defeated/defeatist to try and gather sympathy?

Possibly. He listed my name as people who wouldn't go for gob despite not mentioning anything about it.

[humaneatingmonkey]

But if there's a tiny glimmer that gob could have been the elimination (AND NOT HIM), then i think they should have played that hand. It means the hand wasn't available to be played.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Keep saying that until it's true, Dr Drew

[humaneatingmonkey]

To ask for help to figure it out? As we did? That's the entire point.

Let's say that I really am pushing for gob, so what? Why are you not liking it?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I am not pushing gob. How does that make you feel?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Well, I'm never thrilled to be gaslit in front of my fucking face. But I can cope.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Okay buddy.

[humaneatingmonkey]

No, we're not going to take any list that Python posted and just blindly run down it.

Kinda agree because I still think JV could be scum, although it doesn't take away from my point. If gob is town, he legit thought there was no way he could sway the vote to Gob. So what's your take on Python's post and switch to Black away from Gob?

Also: Gob didn't reach 5 votes in the VCs, but it might have happened in between that I'm not aware of. (Someone please double check.)

[humaneatingmonkey]

It's a possibility. Dangerous to make conclusions. This game is hedging bets.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I am fully convinced that whatever the reason is, Python believed he couldn't swing the vote to town!gob. I'll make that axiomatic assumption.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm pretty sure both T-Bone and gob had been to 5 before usesPython became a real wagon.
The "who would vote for gob" might just be the people who had voted for gob to make it 5, gotta fix a bug in my program and check that again.

This is right, then. But does it really change anything?

Let's say gob is town. Python still thought they had no chance of convincing the no-go-on-gob list to hammer.

The defeatism is real because they still went for Black instead of gob where their ass is on the line.

Unless they thought their own wagon truly had no legs (which is unlikely, given their panic). Or they thought Black wagon was strong enough to push through vs Gob wagon.

This assumes gob is town, of course. I haven't decided on that.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I would assume that python calculated who all would vote for me just like they did with gob

I'm not really sure who all even scumread me enough to vote for me but they were able to get Dave, Ranger, and StD on board. gob, Dann, and LG townread me at the time. I don't think Naerys was? Maybe python was hoping to get her specifically to switch off of them. With her, T-Bone, and Drew they might have had the numbers

In this situation where Python and JV are both scum - why couldn't they have just pushed town!gob instead? With the 6 people Python listed, it would have been seven if JV hopped on board with a "meh, we needed an elim". Scum!JV didn't have to declare that they were voting gob over Python in #837 (unless it would have been suspicious because JV had townread gob before that statement).

Was there something happening at the time that made it look like gob wasn't happening (meaning the 6 people Python listed would not have followed-through with eliminating Gob)?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Well, yeah. Gob was a strong townread for JV. I can see how it could have been plausible that they got cold-feet on going Gob because JV had a public townread on Gob and suddenly switching stances would have revealed their partnership. Could be that they thought Black was a better alternative. I can definitely see it.

How much will is there for a Black wagon? Python/JV/Ranger, who else?

T-Bone (Black in scumlean)
STD (Black is a gob voter)

that's 5

open letter to light/dave/drew to join us on the Black wagon since the alternative is a Python lim

This is the plan, I guess.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Spoiler: Gob is town from JV

It honestly boggles my mind how im even being wagoned lol, or anyones biggest scumread

If those people are scum psotgame i guess that makes sense

I haven't got the context of the game but this feels like it comes from Town more than wolves

If those people are scum psotgame i guess that makes sense

Read this again, don't like this part in particular but the first part is townie

I'm just gonna blast through it, I don't have time to be slow and in depth. I can clarify after the fact it people want it.

30 Black feels overly stiff.
90 getting pinged by what I would consider aNAI post? @Black if you remember this far back, can you place what pinged you here. You're also referring to Naerys but you're referencing a post by STD?

Ah you clarified that, makes more sense. I don't have thoughts either way about this now

95 gob being a pro gamer. If Ganski is a wolf, I really think Gob is Town. This also makes me feel better about my read but I'll try not to conf bias myself into a hole. Them following up on the read in 103 is also a really good sign to me.

106 Black immediately voting, I hope there's good reasoning for that because it looks kinda wack. The reasoning they gave in 123 was lacklustre. It feels like a chainsaw, if that's the right term. Unsure. Although their "more votes on gob please" feels pure (132). The read itself doesn't feel pure though, it feels greatly exaggerated for what it is to try and push them.

At this point in the catchup (as of 155). It'd be pretty hilarious but GTH the solve is Black, Ganski, Dannflor.

Ganski jumping onto Gob in 188 also is like not unexpected given my head canon. Ranger having Black/Dannflor in the scum-reads in 191 is a fun one, makes me feel nice.

Holy shit they're just spamming tierlists.

Black back on the "yo les do gob, lesduit". That's like majority of their posts it seems like at this point (270). Like literally every post of theirs up to 318 seems to have a gob push in it more likely than not.

Black asked why Gob town-reads her, he anwers and I don't see Black responding to Gob. Will post another thing if this was found later but this is just as bad if she didn't respond back. Cuz that would mean it was likely asked in a way to try and trap Gob even further but couldn't see much to work with. A few pages past and haven't seen it, if I missed it please point it out to me.

I aint reading that wallpost by Dann in 398

625 T-Bone "Yes but the tone of that question is meh" in regards to Dannflor I completely agree with. It felt antagonistic.


Spewed this out as fast as I could. Enjoy

I want either Black or Ganski. Either or I don't really care.
Python is a pretty lacklustre wagon.
Gob is Town
T-bone probably Town

I think Scum!JV, after suspecting Black who opposes Gob and discussing Gob's defense with Doctor Drew, would likely hesitate to join a counterwagon against town!gob.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Can I axiomatically assume Black is town if Python's final swan song is a counterwagon against her?

[humaneatingmonkey]

What if Python tried to swing the vote to a buddy who they knew wouldn't have enough support to lim? Or for the distancing value?

I keep thinking about this. And if Python did try to distance themselves from Black for that deepwolf 360 no-scope credit, then this is dangerous shit. Especially if Python really did think they were a goner.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'll look into gob's slot in my next deep session. I need to work lel.

[humaneatingmonkey]

i am pinged so hard right now

[humaneatingmonkey]

fuck it maybe i'm just wrong

VOTE: python

that's e-1 i think

STD, what prompted you to do this?

[humaneatingmonkey]

This is the vote that killed Python's chance to build Black counterwagon. They were hoping it ended with my vote and people would switch to Black. They were also counting on your townread on them.

This is a sudden flip that could indicate scum's commitment to bussing Python or reveals STD as town.

So, STD, if you can walk us through what made you say that you could be wrong, we'll get a lot from it I think.

[humaneatingmonkey]

this is bound to be hilarious

[humaneatingmonkey]

This is the vote that killed Python's chance to build Black counterwagon. They were hoping it ended with my vote and people would switch to Black. They were also counting on your townread on them.

This is a sudden flip that could indicate scum's commitment to bussing Python or reveals STD as town.

So, STD, if you can walk us through what made you say that you could be wrong, we'll get a lot from it I think.

Notification bell

[humaneatingmonkey]

fuck it maybe i'm just wrong

VOTE: python

that's e-1 i think

fuck i did it wrong, so here's the original quote

but please carry on with the secret conversation

[humaneatingmonkey]

Tinfoil hat:

If gob is town, then Python must really thought deepdown that he's telling the truth in #836 - as he could have done things differently if he thought he had the chance of pushing for a gob elimination.

Python's list of people who would go for Gob
- light/Black/Ranger/Python/Drew/Dave

Python's list of people who wouldn't vote for Gob
- gob/Naerys/Dann/HEM/STD/T-Bone/JV

Then everyone in the list of people who wouldn't vote for Gob is just town, and Python slipped.

Counterpoint.

Is this not a surface level factual state of the game?

Seems like everyone voiced an opinion of where they would go for gob or not.

(Counter to my counter, six votes is essentially 7 because someone will hammer so why not try?)

I missed this. It was not. While the list of people who would go for Gob had reason behind it (daveas looked back and they were the previous voters of Gob in a wagon), the list of people who wouldn't vote for Gob was inaccurate (for example, i never said i wont vote Gob)

I do think that while this list is probably not an exact town vs scum divide, it is still important to note because Python still went for Black instead of Gob - where their ass is on the line.

[humaneatingmonkey]

maybe Python just sucks ass as a player and was not thinking rationally idk

[humaneatingmonkey]

so at least we agree that it's meaningful to solve the game by finding out what Python was trying to do

[humaneatingmonkey]

Ranger, I will be honest. That's a lot of things. But I will engage with it if you engage with my content as well. Good?

[humaneatingmonkey]

When I see things worth engaging, sure!

No, the point is I'm engaging with your content even though I wouldn't normally. So do the same with me, even if you think mine isn't worth engaging (which sucks and hurtful to hear but okay).

[humaneatingmonkey]

Okay. You missed my point entirely if that's your general impression. Which I'm afraid of, that's why I'm reaching out to players like you who I think are overlooking what I'm really trying to point out. Please do so at your earliest convenience.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Ranger is a boring ass flip, and we already know that Python didn't capitalize on it, nor would it be likely that scum try to set themselves up for chain elimination.

The large wall of text gives us a good framing of how Ranger behaved yesterday and the thought process behind that. It makes it believable. Unless scum!Ranger kept extensive notes on her town!character and had the master plan that eventually they would try and claim mason on Python, but that seems absurd. Scum wants to be as flexible as possible, especially when one of them is about to be eliminated. Python wasn't trying to die - they were counting votes on Black and STD's E-1 on them put a stop on that.

Shame on this wagon.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Yes, but only secretly because I didn't want Ranger to think she's better than me.

[humaneatingmonkey]

JacksonVirgo, please make a comeback. We miss you! I don't want to eliminate your replacement - I want to eliminate

you

.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Her being town requires her to have kept detailed notes anyway

unless she literally went back through the game and tried to recreate every single emotion and feeling she had about every post she put on her giant wall

Yeah, that's what it looks like to me.

You think it's bizarre and creative, but I could see how Ranger would see the banter and quips from Naerys and Python as open mason talk. It even tracks that Ranger behaved the way she did with that belief in mind, as seen from her vote patterns.

Why would Ranger be doing all this effort, when they won't even read my fucking posts? No one was trying to eliminate them at daystart. It was needless to "word her way out" as scum. But as town, it tracks that she just really wanted to push Naerys out because she felt stumped.

I'm not saying your take on Ranger is impossible, but it's unlikely. It's just as likely that Ranger as a player had a solve and the solve was wrong.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Either way, if you really believe Ranger is scum, I'm not stopping you from pursuing that. It's just boring and unproductive IMO. There are a lot of slots we still have zero info on.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I second the motion.

[humaneatingmonkey]

the third is someone like T-Bone

Or Naerys

[humaneatingmonkey]

T-Bone, would you case Enchanted Light for me?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm okay with a pool of {JV, Enchant > Doctor Drew}

[humaneatingmonkey]

Sorry, {JV > Enchant > Doctor Drew}

[humaneatingmonkey]

Scum on my face

[humaneatingmonkey]

Good night sweet prince

[humaneatingmonkey]

I hope double that it's someone incredibly goofy that just gets rejected by everybody immediately cuz that's hilarious

I'm genuinely feeling myself gravitate towards a HEM vote

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't think I'm interested in JV today

Why not?

[humaneatingmonkey]

How about the fact that he said he was looking through low-hanging fruits, and didn't feel like they were right — even though Ganski is their top scumread and is totally a low-hanging fruit? If you scumread someone, and there's opportunity to eliminate them instead of having yourself eliminated, then why aren't you doing that?

And now they're trying to vote me or whatever, but it's mostly whatever because it doesn't feel like he really believes in that vote. Feels like they were just going for me to have that "look, I'm totally town and didn't go for low-hanging fruit even though that's what scum would do in this situation".

[humaneatingmonkey]

And like, going for me based on gut isn't gamesolving. JV has previously declared what he would do to gamesolve and yet have not been doing any of that ever since he returned. I'm not super inspired to change my vote away from JV.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm not sure ganski was a LHF until today or at least the end of d1

So you agree that Ganski/Elements is a LHF? Okay.

Every time I have a cursory scan of all of who I would consider low hanging fruit which happens to also be my PoE, none of them really feel right and at the same time while I do town-read HEM, a lot of that is due to me pushing down feelings because I feel I'm at higher risk of seeing them worse off because of the initial push on me. But seeing Black do the same thing with me that I saw in HEM but without the same feeling I'm getting, I'm thinking maybe I shouldn't push it down.

Because the statement is recent. That's what I'm talking about.

[humaneatingmonkey]

If you're not liking my lack of depth, too bad? I'm doing what I can

It's not lack of depth that I scumread. It's what you choose to do.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Spoiler: #1

JV, if you think there's one on, one off - why are you pushing Ganski's slot exclusively as opposed to hunting inside it?

Why can't I do both?

Where's the both, in this scenario?

What do you mean?

Where's the evidence that you've been doing both - today?

Ah gotcha gotcha that's what you meant by that question, I haven't yet beyond addressing my reads as to where they are but I've been planning to expand my horizons. I thought you were saying I can't vote Ganski and consider other people at the same time which I felt was a little weird to ask. To change my answer, near the end of the day I've realised that I was on the wrong path of thinking and realised the root of my SR on black was actually because of Ganski and the weights I had for the reasonings were faulty. Coming into today I haven't put too much thought into anything yet so I will be and it's not like I haven't been thinking about other slots considering gob made me think of the read on drew which I need to look into more, and naerys' vote on ganski is something I'm noting as well.

Spoiler: #2

But if there's a tiny glimmer that gob could have been the elimination (AND NOT HIM), then i think they should have played that hand. It means the hand wasn't available to be played.

That's a very good point, I need to think on that. Top of the dome theory is that possibly his support line and the people that were pro-gob may not have been the same people, I need to check this because I'm just throwing ideas at the wall but that is where my gut first tells me to look.

[humaneatingmonkey]

If you're not liking my lack of depth, too bad? I'm doing what I can

It's not lack of depth that I scumread. It's what you choose to do.

And what am I choosing to do?

You're choosing to do this:

How about the fact that he said he was looking through low-hanging fruits, and didn't feel like they were right — even though Ganski is their top scumread and is totally a low-hanging fruit? If you scumread someone, and there's opportunity to eliminate them instead of having yourself eliminated, then why aren't you doing that?

And now they're trying to vote me or whatever, but it's mostly whatever because it doesn't feel like he really believes in that vote. Feels like they were just going for me to have that "look, I'm totally town and didn't go for low-hanging fruit even though that's what scum would do in this situation".

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't feel like "they said they didn't think it was LHFs but their top scum read became a LHF today" is very compelling

You've been in the wrong side of the argument a lot in Day 1, so I'm not surprised.

[humaneatingmonkey]

spite lol

not sure you really believe that but ok

[humaneatingmonkey]

gob if you're planning on pushing someone, do it now so the person csn claim

[humaneatingmonkey]

gob if you're planning on pushing someone, do it now so the person csn claim

ill do it when i am ready

When will this be? If your target is mostly townread, you will not be successful and there will not be enough time. We will end up splitting
the vote and someone who cannot claim will probably be stormed - regardless of who you want to target. We have less than 24 hours and different timezones. Make up your mind now.

You want my support, this is my support.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't think it's flipping scum. Just a hunch. Enchant did try to "scumhunt" with Naerys.

[humaneatingmonkey]

If there is something to the reason JV is a wagon, those few hours might be well spent trying to figure if it's real. Someone summarize please.

If you have the time, please go back and assess it for yourself. Would love your perspective. Check out JacksonVirgo's ISO, my ISO, and Black's ISO for JacksonVirgo cases and rebuttals.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I was masons with gob and Dannflor.

Dann wanted JV. gob wanted T-Bone and JV. (I have no idea why he didn't push through yesterday).
gob thinks it can be anyone in the Enchant wagon (I agree).

[humaneatingmonkey]

If anyone wants to counterclaim, do it now or else it doesn't count. I can trade myself for another scum. If you're town, absolutely do not counterclaim.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Dann doesn't think Ranger is scum. (I agree) But shouldn't live until ELo (I also agree)
Dann thinks JV should be looked at for their defense of Python. (and Ausuka as well)
Dann is suspicious of Naerys and Python as scum theater, but might just also be Naerys as town. (I'm either)
Also Dann wants T-Bone too, and thinks they're the one who has the most associative for Python. (I don't see eye to eye with gob and Dann on this.)

[humaneatingmonkey]

gob believes that the four scum are in the people who never voted Python (i disagree, but okay)

T-Bone
Doctor Drew
Ranger
JacksonVirgo

[humaneatingmonkey]

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

I think this is correct

[humaneatingmonkey]

Dann believes for most of D1, scum had control of gamestate because all three masons were the top wagons (I agree)
But thinks the end of day was super telling and scum got out of control because it took the three of us to hardpush to make Python happen. (I agree)
Dann thinks all of Python's wagon was town (i don't agree and think it's dangerous to assume this)
Dann thinks people who would push Ranger D2 is probably scum (that would be STD, and i would agree that it's possible)

Dann ended N1 highlighting that JV should be eliminated. We have different reasons why, but I agree with this - especially since yesterday.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Dann thinks Black is town-spewed, but gob thinks Black can be deep-wolf. (I'm either)

[humaneatingmonkey]

Also, I was told by gob that I come off as too arrogant. Sorry if anybody felt that way about me. I can quite emotional and I don't handle frustration very well. I hope we can work together moving forward.

[humaneatingmonkey]

{Black, Naerys, Ranger}

{Doctor Drew, davesaz}

{T-Bone, Save the Dragons}

{JacksonVirgo}

[humaneatingmonkey]

while not trying to distract from JV's correct elimination today,

gob seems confident that T-Bone is scum and the big wind up yesterday was trying to bumrush a T-Bone counter-wagon before deadline. he got busy and didn't really attempt anything because he thought playing like that will earn him another day as a not-target. but i thought he was obviously Dann's partner from others pov.

T-bone was mostly an intuition, feely read for gob - so it's very hard to sheep and argue for his case. but one of his reasons is this:

I'm mobile so sorry for the successive posting. I'd put my reads as

The Dann tier (Light, Dave, Drew)
The Bone tier (JV, Black, Gob/Naerys)
The should be scum tier but probably isn't (STD, maybe also Naerys)
Everyone else (Ranger, HEM)

Updating this to make more sense

Town lean
Ranger
HEM
STD
Gob

Null Lean
Naerys
Black
Drew
Dave
JV

Scum Lean
Light

Ugh. Light fits the best with what I think I know, and with Python. I don't think JV/Dave are scum together, but one still could be. I don't think Black and Drew are together. Naerys is only barely in my null lean section tbh. I might move them up to town.

Let me start with the slot I think will flip scum though.

VOTE: Enchant

gob believes a townie doesnt say “null lean”, and that T-Bone's only one scumread (which is suspicious in itself, you should have multiple i guess) is a classic low hanging fruit - Enchant.

there gob. i tried my best.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'll try to write a last will before deadline - I'm just busy right now from work.

I would like people to weigh in on game-defining moments such as:

1. Python's Day 1 performance, movement around gob counterwagon, and what it might mean for scum team's strategy.
2. Enchant's elimination in a scum!JV world and a town!JV world.

I think that's plenty of alignment-indicative material for all players.

I plead with JV that if he is town, that he belongs to the same team as I, and that he begins to leave a last will because the game does not end with his death. The surrender feels scummy, which I'll ignore, but ultimately unhelpful for town winning the game.

[humaneatingmonkey]

It's too advanced, but in Day 3 - upon JV's flip - I would like everybody to look at STD as deepwolf or as JV's partner. STD was a last-minute vote on Python's wagon after townreading them much of the game, and on Day 2 - was instrumental in invalidating my push on JV while encouraging votes on Enchant.

One notable thing is he voted for me after being cross with me, supposedly, but I don't find it believable that he really scumread me just for calling him out as being wrong on Day 1. I believe it was an effort to invalidate my push on JV to make me look unreasonable (and if JV would flip scum, JV also went for a tactic where he would say that "he's seeing words but not getting any meaning from them").

[humaneatingmonkey]

like i said man, game does not end with your death. so any solve from you will elevate you to conftown status posthumously. it will not be a waste of breath.

[humaneatingmonkey]

i die tonight bro, i'll see you in dead thread. please solve the game for posterity.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I really think Ranger is town from the subtext of her analysis.

In a town-JV world, D2 is a lot like D1; all town were wagoned. JacksonVirgo, Enchant, and myself were the only wagons I saw on D2 get above two votes, so it'd mean no scum were threatened.

Ranger totally forgot that D1, scum!Python was eliminated and was not at all like D2. As scum, that would probably be more impactful for her.

[humaneatingmonkey]

they have no choice, right? mason pretty much ordered a hit on them, he was E-1 immediately, and he was pretty dejected. if he was scum, there's gotta be equal chance of straight out bussing a partner who is in the same spotlight as they are (t-bone is mason's #2 hitlist, and gob's #1, plus majority agree on t-bone's elimination) or they support each other. equal chance. we can't say just because of that.

[humaneatingmonkey]

if the game thinks the T-Bone > JacksonVirgo is preferrable than JacksonVirgo > T-Bone, then I welcome it!

[humaneatingmonkey]

Either way, a deadset wagon with no real counterwagon feels wack. We get more information and posterity by keeping it ambiguous between T-Bone and JV. And if I can do that for my dead masons, maybe they'll greet me in afterlife with love and grace.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't really feel like T-Bone/JV on page 78 feels partnered

Would you articulate your thoughts so it's more than a feeling?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I think I've played with JV before and remember them saying that their emotional game is good. Don't have a quote to back that up, unfortunately.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Like if they are scum together then that's the whole point of page 78/79, to get us to think they're not partnered, but if that's the world we live in then it's working a little

This is where I'm operating, but also I'm not opposed to T-Bone going first than JacksonVirgo. Either way, I think both of these slots should go and will yield the most amount of good shit solve for endgame.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Ranger is definitely town for that, no matter what JV flips.

[humaneatingmonkey]

i dont mean to impose but can town please talk to each other with respect from now on

can you disagree and talk amongst each other without taking things at an emotional level

taking things personal is anti-town kek

[humaneatingmonkey]

gob and i shared this idea that we are sus at naerys for their reactions

[humaneatingmonkey]

i think that the push on JV has reached its maximum utility for the day, and we can go back to it before deadline

but like

it's day 3 and we have no alignment indicative stuff from davesaz and naerys

i am also unsure why I'm townreading naerys for their snappy attitude, but it seems like a player style that will be very hard to read and deal with towards the end of the game

[humaneatingmonkey]

i think it's because i strongly believed JV was scum, and so the "never voting Naerys" is a scum signal for me because it seemed like an easy pocket to just townread Naerys. but std has done it, and now t-bone has done it, so maybe it isn't as reliable as i want it to be.

maybe a scrutiny of why people that townread naerys would townread naerys, and an assessment of how believable their townread would be?

[humaneatingmonkey]

so the logic there for me was: JV and STD is scum, because they're obviously pocketing Naerys, so maybe Naerys is town.

but that could also be wrong, and maybe people who are scumreading Naerys IS the town signal (because scum would be shooting their foot making an enemy out of Naerys)

but i have no idea if i should even be townreading Naerys

[humaneatingmonkey]

ahh she's scumhunting and she doesn't give a fuck

it's an easy tonal townread if you think about it, but not easy to eliminate if your playstyle is PoE scumhunting

[humaneatingmonkey]

the tbone wagon never happened

[humaneatingmonkey]

Fwiw i do not scumread Naerys

[humaneatingmonkey]

After everything I think T-Bone can be scum with today's performance focused less on a mission I can believe he believes and more on adventures that I feel he goes on just for the hell of it. That doesn't jive well with what I think the spirit of town is, which is the spirit of someone who has a confbiased idea of the game and goes for it.

I don't know if that makes sense but that's what my gut is telling me.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Like, if I read his ISO, it doesn't add up to a convincing story that informs what he does, how he votes, and how he approaches the game.

idk

[humaneatingmonkey]

But yes, JV is still today's correct elimination.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I do not scumread Ranger either
nor Black
nor StD
nor Doctor Drew

there's a possibility theyre scum but im not feeling that it's convincing unless they're pulling off really good performances right now with intricate scum strategies

and i kinda think it's not the case because i actually have scumreads and i dont think it's the type of game where i need to hunt within my townreads

[humaneatingmonkey]

and finally, im not townreading davesaz

[humaneatingmonkey]

if im to curate a pool of people to go after once JV and I are dead, it will be {T-Bone, davesaz}.

if im going to elect successor, it will be Ranger and Save the Dragons. Please work together. You are both town.

Also I'm famous for townreading scum, so if Ranger and Save the Dragons end up being scum together then GG!

[humaneatingmonkey]

how would you describe what you did today

[humaneatingmonkey]

okay. how did you play the game today

[humaneatingmonkey]

the way i articulated my feelings about you is pretty much exactly how i feel about you

[humaneatingmonkey]

nah, im done with describing what i feel about you. if you want me to do more, im doing more with you right now by knowing more about you.

[humaneatingmonkey]

im sure people would read that and if it resonates, then it resonates. if it doesn't, then it doesn't.

[humaneatingmonkey]

okay. how would you describe what you did today in the game as a player, t-bone?

[humaneatingmonkey]

T-Bone, what I'm doing right now is engaging with you and trying to see what I feel about your slot and if I believe you. Because I scumread you. If you're truly sincere about wanting me to leave more, then humor me.

[humaneatingmonkey]

@HEM, quick question. What do you think scum!me is aiming to do right now as a doomed slot. Do you think I would keep talking and trying to solve (or fake solving) and spewing more and more?

tbh, i think you haven't done anything unexpected for scum to do that would make me change my mind about you. if I'm wrong, I'm sorry about that and i understand how frustrating that might be. but i did everything i can today to push the game towards other slots that i think haven't received much attention, which i succeeded on, and i have encouraged you to solve the game despite being doomed and spew despite being doomed. i think i did my best game-wise.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Thanks man, I really appreciate that. Ill just go by my work day and I'll respond to you as soon as I can.

[humaneatingmonkey]

T-Bone, what's your favorite scumhunting method?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Also, why do you think I'm leaving without much substance? What are you looking for from me?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I'm going to bed.

Number one.

I still want JV's slot to flip. What I wanted to see was JV trying to case someone as an alternative for their elimination - someone they strongly scumread - and be invested in trying to get this done by going back to the game and retroactively explaining why this alternative was the scum partner for Python and how this scumread has been the scum all along.

A high bar, and maybe not entirely fair to expect JV to act this way, but it was what I was looking for that I told myself I'll get off JV for. Otherwise; the AtE, self-vote, and scumreads based on recency biases instead of a more holistic, retroactive read of a new scumread isn't just doing it for me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I'll gladly take a yelling in the dead thread.

Number two.

As for T-Bone, their initial reaction to me was interesting in that he automatically went for discrediting my feelings as "vague descriptions for gut" and invalidating it as "no substance". But I don't agree - in fact, I've put out a lot of substance out there? Everyone immediately understands what I feel about the game, what my teammates are feeling about the game, what the game-defining moments are for me, and what I think about those game-defining moments. So, is there substance that he's looking for that I'm not putting out? idk.

Their description of their play reveals that they had been self-aware that their play was lacking for day 1 and day 2. But also missing in day 3 is an element of scumhunting. Their description of their game is too focused in the value of moving game forward, but moving the game forward for me is about deciding who to vote for - someone who you think is scum. That's entirely absent even in their description of what they're doing. There is a lack of clear idea of who they think is scum (as pointed out in StD as well) and what they're doing to get those scum out. That's not scumhunting for me, and if someone isn't scumhunting then they're not getting my townread.

If these ideas seem half-baked, maybe it is. But these are my strongest impressions. If it resonates, then it resonates. If it doesn't, then don't worry about it. There's no time for me to investigate or prod or reaction test because I'm going to bed, but this is where I'm leaving the game with. Hope people carry the torch moving forward. It will be pretty interesting what will happen in Day 4.

See y'all post game.

[humaneatingmonkey]

STD violated the town with such precision that we'll still be gaslighting ourselves to say that it's our fault and absolve him of any responsibility.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I wish the people around STD are safe and that mafia is his only outlet. Otherwise, I don't feel safe with someone as good as he is in our society.