Vengeful 5p - Open 158: Game over before 829

[ekiM]

Good morning. Seems like random voting with so few players could be quite risky. So how do we get this party started?

[ekiM]

That makes sense. If a townie gets hammered early then they should venge-kill their hammerer because they will certainly be scum. However I don't see how we find the second scum on Day 2 after that happens. So should we avoid putting anyone to L-1, too? Maybe we could use FoS instead or something.

[ekiM]

Voting is the best way to account for your suspicions. I don't like when people suggest alternatives to voting without being under special circumstances such as lylo. I don't consider this setup to be lylo on day one as there is the vengeance kill to negate the threat of that.

Vote: ekiM

FoS: Hoopla

You're reaching here. What is scummy about considering whether voting normally is safe or not?

We're not in LYLO, but a very premature lynch would screw us over. I can express my suspicions adequately without allowing scum to quickhammer by voting too freely.

What was your mistake?

I forgot that this was Vengeful game, and random voted as I normal do. My normal strategy in Vengefuls is to not vote for reason.

God I just made a simple scum mistake.

"Scum mistake". . . ?

[ekiM]

That's fine, I can settle with careful voting - but if there wasn't some theory discussion or talk of precautions early, there would be more room for excuses by scum to put a player at L-1. Having some semblance of town-understanding is a good thing. When the town attempts to define pro-town motives, it forces scum to heed them, or at least compromise. I doubt anyone will quickly hammer now, or sacrifice themself to gain a venge-kill.

Scum putting a player at L-1 isn't really as big of an issue, because a town player is not likely to hammer this early knowing they would be the venge-kill and additionally that scum couldn't hammer because his vote is already on the L-1 player.

But if a townie puts another townie to L-1 scum can hammer. If they do this early enough then the hammerer gets shot and there isn't enough information to find their partner on D2.

You're being quite blasé about this. This set-up already favors scum I believe, and it'll be worse if they're allowed a quicklynch.

[ekiM]

Mmhmm.... so your "normal strategy" is something you've never used before?

[ekiM]

What was your mistake?

I forgot that this was Vengeful game, and random voted as I normal do. My normal strategy in Vengefuls is to not vote for reason.

God I just made a simple scum mistake.

"Scum mistake". . . ?

Yes, a simple mistake made by scum in this setup.[/quote]

Wait, what?

[ekiM]

I've had a busy weekend so I haven't been on MS. Calling that lurking is reaching.

Eurf, I don't like SOG's V/LA. I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up. He's still harping on my suggestion to be cautious with our votes, which I don't really think was a big deal. He's not expressed suspicion of anyone else, either.

Far_Cry's lampshading of his error came off as pretty townish to me, but his efforts since then aren't very convincing. He's being fairly wishy washy and not giving much in the way of reasoning.

Hoopla and Yosarian both look pretty townish, but I'm a bit concerned that this is just because they're skilled at projecting that image. They're definitely taking the lead in trying to keep the game going, but directing the town is a good place for skilled town or skilled scum to be.

More later I hope.

[ekiM]

Happy Birthday, Hoopla!

[ekiM]

When I said that his V/LA is not an alignment-tell that is, in fact, what I meant. I'm not really sure how you can misinterpret that. My problem with his play was that the only thing he'd been talking about was the voting suggestion, repeating himself without saying anything. I also said he'd not expressed any other suspicions; he's since called Hoopla town-looking (like everyone else has) and said the least experienced player doesn't look so good. Again, very easy to say.

Yosarian, do you know whom Hoopla suspects? I don't see where she's lain it out any more clearly than I have, yet you haven't questioned that. In fact, since she called you out for buddying and you denied it, you haven't addressed her at all. Why is that?

[ekiM]

I don't think semioldguy has been that suspicious - yeah there's theory disagreement, and a lack of scumhunting, but is he really that worthy of being the main suspect so far?

Whom do you suspect more?

[ekiM]

When I said that his V/LA is not an alignment-tell that is, in fact, what I meant.

You said

I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up.

Which sounds like you're trying to have it both ways.

Bullshit. I complained that it's bad for the town that SOG has gone away, but I specifically said I didn't think it was an alignment tell. How is that trying to have it both ways?

Yosarian, do you know whom Hoopla suspects? I don't see where she's lain it out any more clearly than I have, yet you haven't questioned that.
In fact, since she called you out for buddying and you denied it, you haven't addressed her at all. Why is that?

Hoopla seems pretty obviously pro-town.

The way she unvoted semioldguy when I voted him, putting him at lynch -1 seemed pro-town to me; at the very least, I can't see her doing that as scum unless she's scum with semioldguy, and even then, that's not the vibe I'm getting.

Besies that, she's been very active, and her reasoning feels pro-town to me.

The main question was "do you know whom Hoopla suspects?". When I asked, did you?

[ekiM]

Vote: Far_Cry

. Read him in iso. He hasn't given a single reason for

anything

, all game.

[ekiM]

Because at the end of that paragraph, you seemed to have concluded he was scummy, and this "anti-town action" was the strongest point you seemed to have against him.

Here is the full paragraph:

"Eurf, I don't like SOG's V/LA. I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up. He's still harping on my suggestion to be cautious with our votes, which I don't really think was a big deal. He's not expressed suspicion of anyone else, either."

If you can't read that then I can't help you. Just stop misrepresenting me.

The main question was "do you know whom Hoopla suspects?". When I asked, did you?

No, at the time, i didn't. Then again, for the first few pages in the game, I didn't really know who anyone suspected, until I started taking the lead and demanding answeres from everyone. You included.

Ah. but at that point you

hadn't

demanded anything from Hoopla. You called her town and then stayed the hell out of her way. That's my point. You're not doing it since I pointed it out, but you were avoiding her.

I've, well, changed my stance on people in this game.

I think that Yos and semi are town, while Hoopla and ekim are scum.

I've made this conclusion in part by gut feeling. However, some pairs I dont believe can be scum:

Yos and Hoopla: the air around those are hard to explain, but I simply believe that both of them can't be scum.

Semi and Yos: There attacks on each other may be scum trying to fool town, but this strategy seems unlikely.

Semi and Hoopla: This is a possibility and I won't forget about it; however, believe that ekim and Hoopla are a more probable pair.

Ekim and Semi: Highly unlikely, as I've stated before.

Ekim and Yos: Another slight possibility, 1 that I will consider.

I will try to do some further analysis.

This isn't analysis. You're barely giving any reasons at all.

Ekim also said I did something "fairly townish." Then, some posts later he votes for me, without talking much about me in those in-between posts.

Can u please clearly tell me why u voted for me?

What is it with this game and people having trouble reading?

"Far_Cry's lampshading of his error came off as pretty townish to me, but

his efforts since then aren't very convincing. He's being fairly wishy washy and not giving much in the way of reasoning.

"

"Vote: Far_Cry. Read him in iso.

He hasn't given a single reason for anything, all game

."

What do u think about Hoopla?

She's bottom of my suspect list. She hasn't really done anything much I've found suspicious.

[ekiM]

Also, Far Cry, I think a hoopla/Ekim scumgroup is very unlikely, even regardless of my town read on her. If Hoopla was scum, and semioldguy was town, I do not think she would have removed her vote on him when I put semioldguy at lynch -1. There would have been no reason for her to do so; all she would have had to do was be quiet, say noncommittal things, and wait until someone else would hammer semioldguy (either a townie or her scumbuddy), and she'd get a townie lynched and wouldn't even look bad in the process; all the blame would probably go to either me or the person who hammered.

This doesn't make any sense to me. Why would L-1 attract no attention, especially after the discussion we'd had about it?

[ekiM]

Because at the end of that paragraph, you seemed to have concluded he was scummy, and this "anti-town action" was the strongest point you seemed to have against him.

Here is the full paragraph:

"Eurf, I don't like SOG's V/LA. I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up. He's still harping on my suggestion to be cautious with our votes, which I don't really think was a big deal. He's not expressed suspicion of anyone else, either."

If you can't read that then I can't help you. Just stop misrepresenting me.

I'm pretty sure anyone reading that paragraph could see that you were trying to express suspicion of SOG, but in a weak, wishy-washy way, and you never actu. Perhaps it was distancing, trying to make us think that you two weren't connected? I don't know. The whole paragraph just seems odd to me.

Changing the subject. You quoted JUST the second sentence then said I was "trying to have it both ways". That's just a lie. That sentence is CLEARLY labelled as being as null with regards to his alignment. The last two sentences CLEARLY list things I found suspicious about him. If you picked up the idea from that paragraph that I found him suspicious, you would be correct, but it's from the second two sentences, not the first two. A little while ago you quoted the first sentence and said:

"Because at the end of that paragraph, you seemed to have concluded he was scummy, and this "anti-town action" was the strongest point you seemed to have against him."

this is just dishonesty. There's NO WAY anyone could read the above paragraph, think it expressed suspicion, and think that was based on the second sentence.

"Thing X is anti-town but NOT AN ALIGNMENT TELL. Suspicious thing Y. Suspicious thing Z."

That cannot honestly be read as "Suspicious because of thing X." No way.

Ah. but at that point you

hadn't

demanded anything from Hoopla. You called her town and then stayed the hell out of her way. That's my point. You're not doing it since I pointed it out, but you were avoiding her.

Eh? IF I decided she was likely town, why would I feel the need to interregate her?

You JUST said "I was demanding answers from EVERYONE". You've elided that from the quote tree, but you just said it. And it is not true. And now you're pretending you never said it, by only quoting what I said most recently. More rank dishonesty. Town don't need to be dishonest.

dog dog de dog dog dog de boo-wop dog

Unvote; Vote: Yosarian2

[ekiM]

Also, Far Cry, I think a hoopla/Ekim scumgroup is very unlikely, even regardless of my town read on her. If Hoopla was scum, and semioldguy was town, I do not think she would have removed her vote on him when I put semioldguy at lynch -1. There would have been no reason for her to do so; all she would have had to do was be quiet, say noncommittal things, and wait until someone else would hammer semioldguy (either a townie or her scumbuddy), and she'd get a townie lynched and wouldn't even look bad in the process; all the blame would probably go to either me or the person who hammered.

This doesn't make any sense to me. Why would L-1 attract no attention, especially after the discussion we'd had about it?

It might, but SHE wouldn't have risked getting attacked for it. I would have, because I was the one putting him at lynch -1. If she was scum, and semioldguy was town, then all she would had to do was not post, lurk for 48 hours or so and see what happens, see if someone else hammered semioldguy or if I get attacked for putting him at L-1 or whatever. Her unvote is not what I would have expected her to do there, if she was scum and semioldguy was town.

There was no way anyone was hammering there. No way. Also no way she could credibly leave someone at L-1 after specifically warning against it shortly before. As town or scum, unvoting there makes sense.

[ekiM]

Because at the end of that paragraph, you seemed to have concluded he was scummy, and this "anti-town action" was the strongest point you seemed to have against him.

Here is the full paragraph:

"Eurf, I don't like SOG's V/LA. I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up. He's still harping on my suggestion to be cautious with our votes, which I don't really think was a big deal. He's not expressed suspicion of anyone else, either."

If you can't read that then I can't help you. Just stop misrepresenting me.

It seemed to me like you were moving toward suspicion with your post in a non-committal way.

I gave my early reads on people. It was as much as anyone had given. And if you couldn't tell from that paragraph that you were on my suspicion list, there's something wrong with you. I wasn't "moving towards it".

You haven't been contributing as much as you've been refuting, not really bringing anything of your own to the table. A lot of explanation or information, not a lot of insight.

I'm struggling to see how I can be giving "lots of explanation and information" and not be contributing. Define "insight" please. Is it an "insight" to notice that someone has been voicing suspicion COMPLETELY without reasoning, all game?

The few times you have expressed unique ideas it has appeared very much on the cautious side and not taking a firm stance on your opinion. Your stance and vote (which I don't think counted anyway) on Far_Cry didn't come until others mentioned suspicion of him and pointed out that he needed more presence in the thread.

Uh, bullshit. Some people said "I'd like to hear more from Far_Cry". Nobody voiced suspicion of him. I was the only person who's pointed out his lack of reasoning, explanation, and analysis. I was the only one who named it as suspicious. I voted for him because I went back and read each player in ISO and his TOTAL LACK of ANY REASONING WHATSOEVER screamed timid scum afraid of slipping up. I was the first one to point this out.

if you think Far_Cry is scum, do you find it more likely for him to be the Goon or the Godfather? Who would his most likely counterpart be depending on which of those roles you think he is?

Probably Godfather. He's been so hugely timid, passive, and afraid to give an opinion. A relative newbie would be very worried about slipping up as Godfather, so they'd try to keep as low a profile as possible. Which is exactly what Far_Cry has done.

Probable partners? Yos seems totally and inexplicably accepting of his lack of contribution and gave him some heavy but non-confrotational coaching to try and tell him to contribute more. That'd be pretty brazen but I'm sure he has the balls to do it. You and Far_Cry have both expressed weak suspicion of one another initially IIRC but it never came to anything.

[ekiM]

Ekim, so appearently you believe that Yos and I are partners, right?? I mean, u voted for Yos and called me the godfather.

Maybe.

Do u think Im a total idiot?? I would find it unlikely that me and Yos are scum partners. Im not that kind of person who hold on to Yos like a newb and clearly show that we are partners. I wouldnt think that scum would be so open.

So you think your actions so far clearly show that you are partners? Uh?

Far_Cry, what do you think of Yosarian2?

Changing the subject. You quoted JUST the second sentence then said I was "trying to have it both ways". That's just a lie. That sentence is CLEARLY labelled as being as null with regards to his alignment. The last two sentences CLEARLY list things I found suspicious about him. If you picked up the idea from that paragraph that I found him suspicious, you would be correct, but it's from the second two sentences, not the first two. A little while ago you quoted the first sentence and said:

"Because at the end of that paragraph, you seemed to have concluded he was scummy, and this "anti-town action" was the strongest point you seemed to have against him."

this is just dishonesty. There's NO WAY anyone could read the above paragraph, think it expressed suspicion, and think that was based on the second sentence.

Um...when you start a paragraph by discribing an action as "anti-town", and spend the rest of the paragraph attacking someone, anyone reading that paragraph is going to conclude that.

You are talking bollocks quite frankly. Absolute bullshit.

I also like the way you've not responded to me calling you out on being misleading about the Hoopla conversation. Subtle!

dog dog de dog dog dog de boo-wop dog Unvote; Vote: Yosarian2

I rest my case. The scum team is semioldguy and ekiM, and semioldguy is the godfather.

Easy as pie.

Anyone who votes for you is scum. Awesome deduction.

There was no way anyone was hammering there. No way.

Why is that, exactally?

If he was town, then there would be a very high chance of the other scum hammering right then; it's really not a bad scum tactic.

??? So you risked an 87% chance (or whatever) of scum winning if SOG is town based on your read from a couple of posts? Why?

You hoping to get farside to vote for hoopla, hmmm?

Why would I do that?

[ekiM]

Fry_Cry, why ignore request for clarification on all those reads you listed earlier?

[ekiM]

And ekim, wat is your stance on semi?

I'm pretty sure yos is scum now (so much of what he says is just manipulative rubbish), so my suspicion of semi has gone down a bit, because that would be a pretty elaborate bus. Although not impossible.

If he was town, then there would be a very high chance of the other scum hammering right then; it's really not a bad scum tactic.

??? So you risked an 87% chance (or whatever) of scum winning if SOG is town based on your read from a couple of posts? Why?

I already explained this. Town should vote agressivly. If town don't lead bandwagons, then scum will. If town are leading bandwagons, then there's a very good chance scum get lynched; if town sit back and let scum leading bandwagons, then it's a good chance town get lynched.

You've totally dodged the question. I didn't ask why you're being aggressive. I asked why you risked throwing the game immediately and if your read was really strong enough to gamble on like that. According to you it's great for scum to vote off any townie very early in the game. If your read on SOG is wrong when you made that vote, you just likely threw the game. Why so cavalier? And why dodge the question?

Anyway, the only way you get information is by voting.

That's obviously untrue.

You hoping to get farside to vote for hoopla, hmmm?

Why would I do that?

Because I think you're scum with semioldguy, obv. If you're scum with semioldguy, then you don't care who gets lynched, so long as it's not one of you.

So, if I'm right and you and semioldguy are scum, then when farside attacked Hoopla on the theory she was linked to semioldguy, you would want to encourage that line of thinking, because you want some townie to vote for some other townie. Which is exactally what you did.

So in that scenario getting far_cry to vote for Hoopla would benefit me... how? I'd do an abrupt 180 on my town read on Hoopla and vote for her? What would that accomplish other than making me look incredibly opportunistic? You're not making any sense, here. Tunneling.

On the other hand, if you were town, then why would you be pushing a theory that conflicted with what you apparently thought, since you were voting me?

I wasn't pushing a theory, I disagreed with your logic, so I said so. Am I supposed to ignore flawed logic if it's irrelevant to what the game state is if my suspicions are 100% correct? No, tunneling is bad.

[

I also like the way you've not responded to me calling you out on being misleading about the Hoopla conversation. Subtle!

Also, what the hell are you talking about here?

The way you dropped a thread of conversation because it was obvious you were wrong and being dishonest and manipulative. You can roll your eyes all you like but it doesn't hide that.

Anyone who votes for you is scum. Awesome deduction.

You voted me because I voted your godfather, and because you think you might have a chance of getting me lynched, while you know you're not going to get one of the other townies lynched.

Riiiiight, because you're the easiest person in the world to lynch? Hardly. I think you're probably the hardest player to target in the game. It just happens that you're scum.

[ekiM]

If I didn't vote, if I sat and waited for something to happen, that would also risk throwing the game away. Victory goes to the bold.

False dichotomy.

My read on Hoopla was very strong, yes. With Hoopla town, that means 2/3 of the rest of you must be scum. That's a great gamble.

Based on less than two pages of saying nothing??

Also, I notice semioldguy has been at lynch -1 for a while now, with both me and hoopla on the wagon, and he has not been hammered. There is no way in hell that would happen if he was town.

Why not?

Because I think you're scum with semioldguy, obv. If you're scum with semioldguy, then you don't care who gets lynched, so long as it's not one of you.

So, if I'm right and you and semioldguy are scum, then when farside attacked Hoopla on the theory she was linked to semioldguy, you would want to encourage that line of thinking, because you want some townie to vote for some other townie. Which is exactally what you did.

So in that scenario getting far_cry to vote for Hoopla would benefit me... how? I'd do an abrupt 180 on my town read on Hoopla and vote for her? What would that accomplish other than making me look incredibly opportunistic?

Dosn't matter if it looks opportunistic or not. If someone who's town gets lynched today, and you are scum, your odds of winning go way up. Even if you hammer, and even if you get vengekilled for it, it'd still be in your favor.

What the hell? IF Far_Cry voted Hoopla and I followed, who exactly is the third voter right then.

You're not making any sense, here. Tunneling.

Of course I'm making sense, and I'm right, too. You can throw words like "tunneling" around if you want, but that dosn't make me any less right.

Then explain who the third vote on Hoopla would be. There wouldn't be one. You can throw around nonsense with a confident tone if you want, but it doesn't make it right.

The way you dropped a thread of conversation because it was obvious you were wrong and being dishonest and manipulative. You can roll your eyes all you like but it doesn't hide that.

I dropped the thread of coversation???

I explained my logic again, demonstrated that it was logical, and there was clearly nothing "dishonest" or "manipulaitve" about it, and then YOU ignored my response. I dropped a thread of conversation?

LOL. YES YOU DROPPED THE FUCKING THREAD OF CONVERSATION!!! See, you just BLATANTLY LIE about what happened with a self-assured tone and think everyone will just believe you. Here it all is:

ekiM: "

Yosarian, do you know whom Hoopla suspects

? I don't see where she's lain it out any more clearly than I have, yet you haven't questioned that.
In fact, since she called you out for buddying and you denied it, you haven't addressed her at all. Why is that?"

Yos2: "Hoopla seems pretty obviously pro-town.
The way she unvoted semioldguy when I voted him, putting him at lynch -1 seemed pro-town to me; at the very least, I can't see her doing that as scum unless she's scum with semioldguy, and even then, that's not the vibe I'm getting.
Besies that, she's been very active, and her reasoning feels pro-town to me."

^^^ Yos dodges the question.

ekiM: "

The main question was "do you know whom Hoopla suspects?". When I asked, did you?

"

Yos2: "No, at the time, i didn't. Then again, for the first few pages in the game, I didn't really know who anyone suspected, until I started taking the lead and demanding answeres from everyone. You included."

Yos admits he didn't know who he suspected but says that was OK because he was "demanding answers from everyone".

ekiM: "

Ah. but at that point you hadn't demanded anything from Hoopla

. You called her town and then stayed the hell out of her way. That's my point. You're not doing it since I pointed it out, but

you were avoiding her

."

Yos2: "Eh? IF I decided she was likely town, why would I feel the need to interregate her?"

Dodges the point -> He never demanded anything of Hoopla, but says he did. Drops the quote context to hide the lie.

ekiM: "

You JUST said "I was demanding answers from EVERYONE

". You've elided that from the quote tree, but you just said it.

And it is not true. And now you're pretending you never said it, by only quoting what I said most recently. More rank dishonesty. Town don't need to be dishonest.

"

And then,

YOU

stopped responding. YOU dropped the thread of the conversation because it was becoming obvious you were lying. And now you're PRETENDING you explained it all and are accusing ME of dropping it. You have got some chutzpah.

You're grasping at straws here. YOu'd do anything at this point to save you godfather, huh?

No. It's obvious to me you're scum. You're lying so much. I just don't know how to convince anyone else when it's so obvious and nobody cares.

You voted me because I voted your godfather, and because you think you might have a chance of getting me lynched, while you know you're not going to get one of the other townies lynched.

Riiiiight, because you're the easiest person in the world to lynch? Hardly.

After Hoopla expresses suspicion on me, yes. At that point, I became the easiest pro-town person in the game to lynch. Before that point, you were going for farside instead.

Again, even if Hoopla had voted you, where's the third vote? Fary_Cry was on Hoopla and myself, SOG was on Me and Far_Cry. How is that the path of least resistance?

[ekiM]

Unexpected V/LA until the 19th (Wednesday). No access. Sorry.

[ekiM]

@mod and others:

No longer V/LA. Will catch up tonight or tomorrow.

[ekiM]

wow, looks like I have some humble pie to eat. I just caught up with a 20 page game so I'll catch up with this tomorrow morning. Sorry for delay.

[ekiM]

First of all, sorry for the delay. Last few days have been crazy. I've re-read the game now.

Also, I notice semioldguy has been at lynch -1 for a while now, with both me and hoopla on the wagon, and he has not been hammered. There is no way in hell that would happen if he was town.

Why not?

Because someone would have hammered. This is especally true from my point of view if I'm assuming Hoopla is town; if I'm right and Hoopla is town, that would mean that if semioldguy is town, that the scum would be you and farside. Which would mean both scum are sitting there, not hammering the townie while posting again and again. What are they waiting for? He's not going to hammer himself, and if they wait long enough, the wagon might switch over to one of them. A townie can't be lynched in this game without at least one scum on the wagon, remember.

Even if I was wrong about Hoopla and she was , there would still have to be one more scum who wasn't voting semioldguy right now if semioldguy is town.

This was well reasoned. The only case ignored is Yos/Hoopla scumteam, which was remote.

Far_Cry, what about the above did you not find convincing? You never commented on it directly; why is that? How come you changed your mind just before I was due to come back from V/LA?

I'm going to think about it but your action make me want to lynch u to.

What "action" exactally, are you talking about here?

Actions, I meant. Your fight with ekim yielded mistakes from both of u, and I'm still deciding who to lynch.

You never expanded on this. Could you do so now? What mistakes are you referring to; why were they scummy?

Awesome.

Ok, we have 2 lynches left to find the last scum. I think ekiM is the most logical suspect now, based on the way he defended semioldguy and attacked me for attacking semioldguy. Only think that makes me hesitate a little is that semioldguy voted him; a goon voting his godfather isn't unheard of, but it's rare and dangerous.

I don't think I attacked you for attacking semioldguy. It was mostly because I thought you were being unfair or disingenuous when arguing with me in a way that felt like bad faith. Having re-read the game I think I was getting more wound up than was warranted.

Nice, at the moment, my two lynch choices are Yos and ekim, mainly based on thinking Far_Cry is the towniest. However, I do owe this game a thorough reread, so I'm not committing to anything yet.

Could you explain why you think Far_Cry looks townie?

My suspects are Hoopla and ekim. Again, a think a reread will be in order here.

Can you give some reasons?

I read one of Far_Cry's scum games when this thread first opened to try and get a handle on him. The thing I noted was how abrasive and committed he was to his feigned suspicions. It seems the opposite here - where it took a few pages to actually talk about anything other than his scum mistake. The 'scum mistake' makes sense, as we now know his early vote was for the goon, but I'm still not buying it.

Can you link those games? Search doesn't seem to be working and he doesn't have a wiki.

---

This questions post is getting pretty long so I'll separate the analysis into another one.

[ekiM]

SemiOldGuy Goon & Far_Cry GodFather

If this is the case then they avoided focussing on each other for most of the game, then Far_Scum bussed SOG once his lynch became inevitable. Yos' explanation for why SOG was very likely scum made a lot of sense, but Far_Scum didn't address it. Reading back, I'm not sure why a townie would leave nearly a week before hammering there. It looks more like a godfather being reluctant to hammer his goon, but resigning after failing to find any traction for a different lynch. He hammered just before I came off V/LA, possibly hoping for townie cred for that.

I find it interesting how SOG started listing Far_Cry as his number two suspicion, but never really put him under much pressure or looked at all like he would vote for him. The few questions SOG directed at Far_Cry were pretty gentle, and I could see them as being geared towards helping Far_Cry make himself look better; coaching.

In the other direction, there was his "scum mistake" voting for SOG. He also called SOG "strange" and "suspicious" a lot early on, but never really gave reasons or committed to it. Later he switched to SOG being townie and me and Hoopla being his suspects. He never directed anything other than softballs at SOG.

I did think early on that Far_Cry made sense as godfather, because he was being very timid, not really committing to much and not giving real reasons for those things he did commit to. That's how I'd expect an inexperienced godfather to play in this setup. Having re-read, I don't really see anything to undermine this.

SemiOldGuy Goon & Hoopla GodFather

In this scenario Hoopla decided near the top of Page 5 that the best way for her to win was to bus then. Both myself and Yos had said she looked pro-town, so she hoped to leverage that into a win. I think Hoopscum was in a very strong position yesterday, being generally considered town. It might have been easier for Hoopscum to support a lynch on me or Yostown though; it's so much better for scum to get a town lynch day 1, and I doubt either of us would've shot her. On the other hand, she might have been hoping to cultivate her pro-town image with the credit from contributing to a day one scum lynch, and then cruising to victory over the next two days.

What doesn't make sense to me about that is, her play today. It doesn't look at all like she is pushing for the easier lynches today. I think if she were scum and Yos was town, she'd have tried to stay on his good side and lynch the other two of us with him. Instead she put him at the top of her suspect list. I'm having trouble understanding why she would do that as scum.

Hoopla's early unvote of semioldguy makes sense in either case, really; a godfather taking his goon out of the danger zone, or a townie genuinely wanting not to take the risk. I'm not getting much out of it.

SOG & Hoopla didn't interact very much. I'm not sure what to make of that.

Reading her whole game in iso, she still feels pro-town, but she hasn't actually done as much pro-town stuff as I thought. I also find the uncommented decision to vote for SOG a little odd, she'd mostly been giving good reasons for everything before that. Hoopla, could you explain why you voted for SOG when you did? And why you didn't say much after that until he was lynched?

SemiOldGuy Goon & Yosarian2 GodFather

This would be the hardest bus of all. Yoscum voted for SOG on page 2, putting him at L-1. He then banged the drum for his lynch pretty much all through the day, getting there in the end. It's not impossible that this was a bus, Yos is an experienced and confident player and might have tried his hand at hard bussing to gain town-cred then riding that to victory. This would be extremely audacious though, and I think this is prima facia the least likely scenario.

After reading again, the biggest mark in favor of this theory is Yos' early vote for SOG. As scum, he would know that nobody was going to hammer SOG, and this provided distancing at no risk. However, I thought, and still think, that this would be a very reckless vote for a townie to make. He pretty much bet the farm on his early game read. I find it hard to conceive of being that confident in an early game read. So objectively I think that vote made more sense as scum than as town, unless the player was very skilled and confident as town. At the risk of asking for a re-hash, can you explain again, Yos, why you were confident enough to place this vote?

Yos & SOG interacted a lot, quite contentiously sometimes. Reading it, it doesn't feel forced.

I felt Yos was playing very scummily yesterday but mostly that was frustration with our back-and-forths. Reading it again dispassionately, he wasn't behaving nearly as badly as I felt then. There are a couple of places I still feel he was being unfair, but, especially knowing now that SOG was scum, he looks better on re-read. I think his willingness to re-evaulate things today also looks good. As scum I would have expected him to keep pushing on me.

I also like a lot how he has clearly and firmly laid out his thoughts today and placed a vote. The other two are being a bit more ambiguous. His reasoning all makes sense to me, too.

---

I'd like to hear responses to my questions before placing a vote.

---

One thing that I find odd but don't know how to synthesize into my analysis is how SOG basically vanished from the thread as soon as he was at L-1. His last post is near the top of page 5. A little later Hoopla votes to put him at L-1 (with Yos). A week later almost he was hammered by Far_Cry. At no point in that gap did he post to defend himself or try to move the lynch to someone else. So it looks like he was resigned to going down, and thought it would help his partner if he kept silent. At this point I get stuck and can't figure out which hypo-busser would be helped most by his silence here. Anyone got any ideas?

[ekiM]

Thanks for the links Hoopla, I will give them a look and respond. This is taking a lot longer than I thought it would; I finished lunch an hour ago!

Also, why is it always your birthday?

[ekiM]

I've read that game now and I take your point; in that game he was more forthright and aggressive (although still not giving much in the way of reasoning). I'm leery of taking meta into account when we only have one game to compare with, though; is he playing differently here because he is now town and less sure of himself; because he is the godfather and afraid of slipping; or simply due to natural variation in his playstyle?

I think the most egregious interaction with SOG by anyone was Far_Cry being so reluctant to vote for him after Yos made what was a pretty water-tight case against the possibility of him being town. How strong an indication do you think this datum is? In your summary post (145) you seem to base your read on Far_Cry mostly on this meta, which is itself based on just one game. I think that it's a valid point to raise, but not very strong. Is that really all you have to say about F_C from this whole game?

What do you make of the interactions between SOG & F_C that I discuss in 153?

What do you make of Yos' page 2 vote for SOG? You say that you believe Yos is capable of bussing that hard. Have you played in a game with him where he bussed confidently and early? You also say you can see the pro-town motivation for it, how so?

[ekiM]

This thread needs more ekiM, where are you buddy? Your suspicions are important.

Yes. This game is stalling too much.

You said on Friday that you would re-read this game. Have you done so? What do you conclude?

[ekiM]

Far_Cry, I find it very hard to believe that you didn't see Yos' argument at all yesterday. It sounds like you don't have a good explanation for your long delay on the hammer, so you're resorting to that.

I really don't like the appeal to emotion in your latest post. You complained the game was stalling, but I see no evidence you've done any thinking about the game at all since then. You said you would re-read the game, but have given us nothing. You've revised your opinions to "I don't know". It looks like you're waiting for a lead to follow.

Vote: Far_Cry

[ekiM]

In post 131 Far_Cry quotes a post with Yos' argument in. I don't see how he could fail to have read it altogether.

[ekiM]

Ugh. False confessions are very bad sportsmanship, Far_Cry.

Hmm, I'm leaning towards Hoopla, but I need to re-read again.

[ekiM]

Hoopla

Why SOG over Yos D1?

You didn't direct a single question or to SOG after the theory discussion at the start. Why?

At the start of D2 you said Far_Cry was towniest. Then you said He was your second lynch choice behind Yos. Then he was your first lynch choice. Can you explain the thought process here?

You said you could really see Yos bussing SOG from the outset. What is that based on?

Yos

What changed between post 140 and 146?

You said your bold vote for SOG on page 2 was part of your general Vengeful strategy. I've searched Little Italy for games with Vengeful in the title, and haven't found any with you in. Where have you played it before?

[ekiM]

Hoopla

Why SOG over Yos D1?

Originally I thought one of Yos/Far-Cry was the godfather, had a town read on you, so technically the role I was surest of (by a psuedo-elimination process) was semioldguy being the goon. Then Yos talked me into voting semioldguy, rather than taking a shot the Godfather. Either way I feel like I was suckered into it.

OK.

Hoopla

You didn't direct a single question or to SOG after the theory discussion at the start. Why?

I think I kind of covered it in previous answer - my feelings for semioldguy were based on a process of elimination. At the time, I was more concerned about lynching the Godfather.

You figured SOG was probably the goon by POE, OK. But nothing towards him at all? Didn't you want to try and determine if your POE read checked out? And I don't see how you do that without talking to him at all.

At the start of D2 you said Far_Cry was towniest. Then you said He was your second lynch choice behind Yos. Then he was your first lynch choice. Can you explain the thought process here?

I think the post you're referring to is this, which was said prior a serious reread. Here is probably where my most cohesive thoughts for Day 2 was.

Yeah, that's the one I meant. I thought you had a town read on Far_Cry based on meta, but that eventually turned around based on... what I said about his long delay D1? Or? His "confession" didn't help.

]You said you could really see Yos bussing SOG from the outset. What is that based on?

This is based on his experience. He wouldn't do it if he didn't think he could coast to the end-game - and it's these sort of posts that makes it looks like thinks he's cleared himself sufficiently;

You still think I'm suspicious, Hoopla? Really?

This was straight after semi's flip and I stated he was in my top 2 for the next lynch. I think he's perfectly capable of bussing semi if he expects town credit like

that

.

Ugh. I don't think I've ever seen a true hard bus, so I'm having trouble here. This game is really small so it's not quite the same as it would be in a regular game. I might have to go and check some other vengeful games and see if this kind of thing ever actually happens.

[ekiM]

@mod: Could you prod Hoopla, please? It has been three days.

I actually haven't played vengeful on the forum before. I've played some on scumchat, and the beach bash and beach bam scum-meets, we played dozens and dozens of them face to face each time. I really have come to like the format, and have a lot of ideas of how best to play it.

Heh, alright. I've never actually played Mafia in the flesh. Do you think it's a viable/good strategy in vengeful for the Godfather to bus his goon from the first?

I look at the Vengeful games in this forum and I saw one game where JDodge did that and it went quite well for him, out of about a dozen games. It does give some townie credit, but I guess the thing to consider is, wouldn't it be easier to jump off the goon at some point to achieve a townie lynch?

[ekiM]

Heh, alright. I've never actually played Mafia in the flesh. Do you think it's a viable/good strategy in vengeful for the Godfather to bus his goon from the first?

(shrug) It can be a viable strategy, sure, especally if you have a good read on the pro-town people in the game and can predict how they're going to respond.

OK.

However, it only works if it's a strategy that would convince the townies that you're town (since you would then have to survive two more lynches to win), and long before the end of day 1, it was pretty clear that even if SOG did flip scum that Hoopla would still suspect me. In the specific scenario of this game, with Hoopla suggesting I was likely to be SOG's godfather, I wouldn't have done it unless I thought I could lynch Hoopla before endgame.

Hmm. Then why did you say...

You still think I'm suspicious, Hoopla? Really?

... at the start of D2?

I'm not suggesting your actions alone are more likely to be done by scum than town. The core of my argument stems from my town read on ekiM, which makes you scummy by default - I can see your play fitting the Godfather role far easier than I can of ekiM. It's as simple as that. It really is the easiest way to crack the game, and I urge ekiM to reread the game like this if hasn't already done so.

Why is Yosarian2's D1 play more fitting to Godfather than yours? Bussing from page 2 seems prima facie less likely than deciding to bus later on. So I'm not really sure what you're getting at here.

[ekiM]

Sorry for not posting all weekend; something happened.

Bussing from the start is still less likely than bussing late on. I haven't seen anything to change that fundamental assessment, and we've exhausted all avenues of conversation.

Vote: Hoopla

[ekiM]

Phew. Here we are, then. Thoughts:

I agree that Hoopla has done a good job of sounding like a townie all game, which is why today was a hard decision. Logically it was more plausible that Hoopla was scum, and the discussion didn't raise anything significant enough to change my mind the other way.

Yos, I know there isn't a lot of strong evidence in a game this size, but there are a couple of things I should point out that I thought were pretty indicative. Look at her lack of interaction with SOG almost all of Day 1. Look at how she agreed that SOG was scummy but tried to get a lynch elsewhere. Those are what made my mind up.

I hope I've explained myself. If you have any questions then shoot away.

[ekiM]

Good game everyone. Thanks to B&B for some quality modding and comments. Thanks everyone else for playing. Far_Cry, please try to be more sportsmanlike in future. Giving up really hurts your team!

SOG played really well, he pretty much set the win up for me by, as B&B said, bussing me but not actually get me close to getting lynched, then fading into the night at the right point. I can honestly say he's the best mafia buddy I've had so far on this site. Kudos.

Hoopla and Yos both played well, I was just fortunate enough to have a very favorable set-up handed to me by SOG after D1.

I was very dissatisfied with my D1 play which is why I switched things up so much when I got back into D2. My belligerence arguing with Yos D1 was all an act, intended to make me look more like a stubborn townie, but I think it just made me look bad. So I just dropped that idea altogether. I thought he looked very townie after D1. Pretty much everything I said in my catch up post was my best attempt at objectively assessing the game at that point, but assuming I was town instead, and maybe leaving a little lee way for myself (I think if I was town I would've been 100% sure it was Far_Cry at that point).

Most of D3 I was just waiting and hoping one or the other would put a vote down so I could steal. When Yos put me on the spot I voted Hoopla at the end because there was no way I would have made any other move at that point if I was really town. I didn't think I could explain a vote for Yos, if Hoopla paused to question at all; it would look really opportunistic.

[ekiM]

I tried several times on D3 to type out a post voting for you with an explanation. It always sounded really non-credible.

Hoopla had said she would vote for you so many times that I would have felt opportunistic putting that a vote on you down first, and I was paranoid this would show I was scum. So I waited. And waited. Then you told me to vote first, and I thought I would be better able to reveal myself to Hoopla and convince you "logically" then reveal myself to you then have Hoopla listen to you over me.