Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win
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ksen Goon
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No, I pretty mucb meant "never." If town forgoes a lynch they pretty much give scum a free NK. If town doesn't lynch they will never win the game.boberz wrote:
"NEVER", are you sure, or do you just mean never on Day 1? It can be mathmatically advisable to get the information of another night, and lower the probability of a mislynch towards the end. I agree in Day 1 it is stupid, and most of the time it is stupid.ksen wrote:Town should never NOT lynch. It is our only way to kill scum and on Day 1 it gets the information ball rolling.-
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I can't seem to get an avatar to load. I'll have to work on that.Incognito wrote:Hi.
First order of business to everyone: please get avatars. They help with being able to determine who said what.
Except for not wanting to lynch a Jester (but that's more about not wanting to lynch a particular person) I'm not sure what condition could occur where Town would not want to exercise their lynch.
This isn't entirely true; I can certainly think of situations where not lynching is actually beneficial for the Town. Can you or anyone else think of those situations?Post 9, ksen wrote:No, I pretty mucb meant "never." If town forgoes a lynch they pretty much give scum a free NK. If town doesn't lynch they will never win the game.
It's our way of removing scum from the game. What scenario could possibly be in place to make us NOT want to exercise it?-
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ksen Goon
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How would town know it was in that situation? In the games I've played on other sites the Town doesn't normally know how many scum are in the game.boberz wrote:What about if there were 4 town and 2 scum, ksen.
I can sort of see where you're coming from, but IMO Town giving up it's only real weapon is not worth the risk.A No-lynch would mean another NK could definately happen without ending the game. This would then enable any PR to have another night to gain info, it would also improve towns probabilities of correctly lynching the next day, in that day some kind of claim would probably occur a good time to get reads (and if PR claim can be verified gives the only solid info the town will ever get).-
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ksen Goon
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I haven't been talking about this specific game in the Lynch/No-Lynch discussion. Yes, the GM has told us there are 2 scum in this game. Is that the normal procedure in this forum?boberz wrote:There are two mafia aligned players, it is in the rules at the top of the thread. I am slightly worried you have not read these, and it makes me wonder how much you have read of anything. Scum would take notice of posts, but I am wandering into WIFOM.
So you don't need to worry about my reading skills. We have obviously been talking past one another.-
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If town doesn't lynch how have they not lost a lynch?boberz wrote:Based purely on the probabilities there are definately situations where it is worth it, so unless your willing to trust the reads of people you have reads on over mathmatics then I do not really think there is an argument. Town do not lose a lynch, they just postpone the lynch until the probabilities are better and the information is greater, I repeat they do not lose a lynch.
The mathematics also argue to lynch everyday:
Game with a day 1 lynch and 9 players, 2 of which are scum (assuming 1 nk a night):
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Day 1 chance of getting scum: 22%
Day 2 chance of getting scum: 29%
Day 3 chance of getting scum: 40%
Game with no day 1 lynch with 9 players, 2 of which are scum (assuming 1 nk a night):
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Day 1 chance of getting scum: 0%
Day 2 chance of getting scum: 25%
Day 3 chance of getting scum: 33%
So it looks to me like as the game progresses your chances of getting a scum in a lynch dramatically increase if you lynch everyday.
And in case it's not clear I'm engaging in a purely hypothetical discussion and not meaning to address anything to do with this game.-
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ksen Goon
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Where have I ever said I didn't know how many scum were in this particular game?boberz wrote:There is always 2 scum in newbie games, I do not mind you not knowing, but it is in the first posts so you should have read it. I am not convinvced we are talking cross purposes.
Since reading the OP I've known how many scum are in this game.
It's apparent you've been engaging in the discussion as if I'm talking about this particular game. When I joined this conversation it to talk about general town strategy in any game, not just this one.-
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Because as I've said quite a few times now I wasn't talking about this specific game when I tried answering boberz's question about no-lynching.Incognito wrote:
If you're claiming that you knew the number of scum in Newbie Games to be 2, why would youPost 20, ksen wrote:How would town know it was in that situation? In the games I've played on other sites the Town doesn't normally know how many scum are in the game.notbe able to tell when we're in the type of situation mentioned by boberz even if games you've played elsewhere didn't allow you to determine this?-
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ksen Goon
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ksen Goon
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Here are some 1st day threads to the last few games I've played. You can look around that forum for others as well:Patrick wrote:Ksen, can you link to a few games you've played on other sites? Thanks.
http://talkrational.org/showthread.php?t=19744
http://talkrational.org/showthread.php?t=19935
http://talkrational.org/showthread.php?t=20068-
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ksen Goon
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I linked some games above for you guys to look at.Patrick wrote:ksen, I thought you said you'd played games before? (I'd still like to see them). How do you think we're supposed to find scum? Why do you think at least one experienced player is scum?
I think it's pretty likely one of the more experienced is scum because if I were GM'ing a newbie game I'd want to make sure the scum team had someone experienced to help mentor it too.-
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ksen Goon
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I have voted . . . http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 12#1974412Incognito wrote:@ksen,who would you vote for right now if you absolutely had to? Why haven't you voted yet?
I voted for Yarmond. And right now I am inclined to keep my vote there because of his/her inactivity.-
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ksen Goon
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Already did that here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 37#1979037Ether wrote:Ksen, you got any scum games to link to?
Lol, ok, I set myself up for that one.
You.Post 109, ksen wrote:Who do you think are scum?-
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In this one I was a normal scum goon:Ether wrote:
I mean games in which you were scum.Post 121, ksen wrote:Already did that here:
http://talkrational.org/showthread.php?t=16891
In this one I was a Godfather:
http://talkrational.org/showthread.php?t=16322-
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I looked at his profile and it says he's only made two posts. The first on 11/15 to sign up for this game and then another one on 11/16 to sign up for a different game.boberz wrote:Any news on Yarmond???
I can't tell from his profile when the last time he's been on the site. Is there somewhere else to find out that sort of information?
Where I've played off-site a first day voting strategy would be to vote for an inactive or someone who is not that good of a player or is known to not be that helpful even when town.
Based on that experience I find Yarmond still a good lynch candidate.
Annachie would be my second choice for a lynch. I know RL interferes with Mafia but her post sounded kind of like a "hittin' da club" post which was our way of saying it looked the poster was posting something in order to have an excuse to lay low.-
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ksen Goon
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Allowing people to fly under the radar is a good way to help town lose. You may not like my reason for keeping my vote on Yarmond due to his inactivity but I think it is good strategy because in my experience scum try to lay as low as possible and all too often town lets them.boberz wrote:I hope that is not true, it sounded truthfull to me and I will asume it is.
I do not like your theory on Yarmond. He is neutral to us all, surely he must be it would appear he is not going to contribute so therefore he will be replaced and we will have to hope that the replacement is more active. We can only have a dead neutral read till then.
And that's what I'm doing with my vote on Yarmond.We should vote off the most scummy, ie the person we think is most likely to be scum.
No, and I said as much in the post you responded to. I said I also have a slightly scum feel about Annachie. Why would you ignore that and act as if I hadn't said it?Do you truly have a slightly town read off everyone other than Yarmond?
Now I'm getting a scummy-vibe from you because you seem to consistently miss things I say.
Why does it look like you are trying to get me to change my vote from Yarmond?if not then i think you should vote for that person.
Maybe you are. The more involved I get over here the more I'm thinking I have a lot to unlearn from playing over at the other site.This would appear to be another theory you and I disagree on, but again I think I am on the side of conventional wisdom.
Well, I have answered who I think is most likely to be scum, the links I've provided have been in response to specific requests for such links.Can I ask Patrick etherandincog: is bad theory scummy? I do not really think it is but there might be logic i havent heard.
Either wayunvote vote: ksen(btw this is L-2 I believe, correct me if I am wrong)
He moved from chatting about no lynching, in an unconvincing manner; to not really answering who he thought was scum; to then linking endless games in response to requests; to finally raising concern over annachie's VLA I think fairly unfoundedly. He does all this without doing any scum hunting.
The more I read your posts boberz the more you stand out as scum to me for the constant misrepresentations as you've tried to place suspicion on me.
Normally I don't like to vote for someone who's voted for me because people often read it as revenge-voting which can be a scum-tell. However in this case you leave me no choice but to vote for you because I feel you have continually trying to hang suspicion on me by misdirection and misrepresentation.
unvote, vote boberz-
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ksen Goon
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Here are a few of my thoughts:
1) I signed up here to play in order to help make me a better mafia player. I appreciate the insight of the more experienced players especially when it concerns scum-hunting because until this game I've never really had to do it so I'm unsure how one goes about it and what a person is supposed to look for. In the games I've played before, some linked upthread, it was always the same group of people playing against one another so the trick was to try and recognize patterns and figure out who was breaking that pattern. Also people were expected to follow the lead of one or two of the more experienced players and that leads, imo, to leaning on them as a crutch because you don't have to do your own opining on other people because you can just bandwagon on to what the experienced guys want town to do.
I hope that helps explain my perceived lack of saying anything useful over here.
2) Here's a list of the players and my current thoughts about each of them:
herd456:low to medium level of activity and has been pretty defensive. I am slightly suspicious of him.
boberz:Very active. In the beginning I read his long and numerous posts as attempting to lead town. I am neutral on him right now but leaning town.
Yarmond:No activity to date. Normally I'd find that suspicious in and of itself but after reading the other discussion and seeing that he's being prodded I have to leave him as neutral for now.
DarthRandal1138:Low activity and what activity there has been has been sort of stand-offish if not downright defensive. I'd like to hear what he has to say about Ether's vote on him. I am leaning towards scum on him. Could his aggressive posts be some sort of gambit to throw town off if he really is scum?
Annachie:Low activity but RL sounds like it is probably affecting his level of play. I hope things settle down for him soon. I was suspicious of him but now I'm more neutral towards him although it did read like he may have been fishing for who the specials were. I'll be watching for more of that.
Ether (SE):Has been helpful to town and active. I thing Ether is probably town.
Patrick (SE):Low activity. But what activity he's had seems to have been directed at trying to help town.
Incognito (IC):High level of activity and has been actively involved in scumhunting. I think Incognito is most likely town.
I am going tounvote: boberz.
I am most suspicious right now of Herd, Darth, and Annachie.
vote: DarthRandal1138-
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ksen Goon
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@boberz- Yes, I am following the lead of the more experienced players in this case. And since the majority of them have basically cleared you as being town then it makes sense not to waste a vote on you. I think I may have had some tunnelvision on you because of how the day started and your continued focus on me.-
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The experienced players would post their thoughts. When inexperienced players posted theirs instead of reasoning with the more inexperienced players about why their logic was off invectives like "retard" were hurled about. It's pretty frustrating as someone who is trying to learn the game especially the parts about scumhunting and what makes a particular more scummy than a different action.Ether wrote:Totally off-topic: what do you mean, "expected?" Didn't they try to get you to do your own thing at least early on so they could read you?-
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ksen Goon
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I already said why but I'll go ahead and recap. In the begininning of the game you posted quite a bit and seemed to me to be trying to lead the conversation. I read this as an attempt to lead town.boberz wrote:Anyway ksen you say i tried to lead town. What do you meant?
Could I be mistaken? Sure. But how I read it in the begininning is how I read it.-
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: I hope things are settling down for you at home. Ok, down to business. Have you had a chance to remember the questions you wanted to ask? I'm interested in seeing what they are.@Annachie
You also don't have a vote on anyone as of Starkmoon's last count. Who are you leaning to cast your vote on?
: Is there anything that can or should be read into Darth seeking a replacement?@Everyone else-
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Some, but I don't read that in the same class as saying you have information but aren't willing to share it now with town.Patrick wrote:That's not the first case of someone doing that. To take a recent example, did it bother you when Incognito and Ether both preferred not to answer boberz's question?
Town lives and dies based on the amount of information it gets, correct?
But like I said the scumminess of the move is mitigated some by boberz actually coming out and saying what he's doing.-
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Isn't third on a bandwagon considered a scum tell?Annachie wrote:Eventually found it. It was there for 6 posts.
Ok, lets make this more general then, with 9 players in the game, and 3 voteing on one person, What chance do people think that there is at least one scum in on the vote.
The raw probability is the same as any three players being scum, 58%, but this isn't probabliity, this is game play/psychology.-
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ksen Goon
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My vote was on Darth. Shouldn't it have transferred over to his replacement?starkmoon wrote:Official Vote Count
Players needed to lynch: 5
Annachie- 1 - herd456 - (L-4)
boberz- 1 - Incognito - (L-4)
herd456- 1 - Patrick - (L-4)
ksen- 1 - boberz - (L-4)
Players not voting: Annachie, Ether, ksen, RayFrost, Tyrope
Will prod herd.
vote: RayFrost-
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Well, in about 2 hours it'll be 48 hours since Ray posted last, unless I missed a post.
Ray . . . do you have anything to add to the game?
@boberz - Dude, you've tunnelvisioned onto me ever since our talk about no-lynch on the first couple of pages. Isn't it about time grab onto something else?
What's your read on RayFrost/Darth?-
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We have three days to go until the end of day one.
How close are we to agreeing on a lynch?
Would everyone please list the people they are willing to vote to lynch today along with your reasoning?
I'll go first:
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1)Darth/RayFrost- Reason for being #1 on my list is that Darth was acting very scummy as stated earlier in the thread and RayFrost has not worked to alleviate that read and in fact has only made feel more secure that he is scum based on his evasiveness and his lack of being here.
2)herd- I don't like how herd just dropped out of the game while he was under pressure. It's possible something did come up but the whole thing rubbed me the wrong way.
3)Annachie- His vote putting Ray in position to be hammered or self-hammered could be seen as setting up a defense for later if Ray turns out to be scum.-
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Let me clarify my post just a little bit.Ether wrote:I'm pretty much ready when the rest of you are. I don't particularly care whether Yankee reads or not at this point.
Ksen's top three is the same as mine (in that order), but RayFrost is the only person I am willing to lynch today.
When I said "lynch today" by today I meant game day "today" not today 12/7/09.-
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ksen Goon
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I am still suspicious of herd.
Incog and Annachie seemed to be tangling by the end of day 1 but I'm not sure if that's something that needs reading into.
So right now I have as who I think is scum:
1) herd/concerned (welcome to the game btw)
2) annachie
I'm neutral on:
3) tyrope
I'm pretty confident as town:
4) boberz
5) Ether
6) patrick-
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@Annachie: Why do you keep trying to push some suspicion onto boberz as in your #481? The way you end that post seems scummy to me.
Then in your #487 it reads to me as if you are trying to stop town from gleaning what information they can from the NK. IMO town should be going through every bit of information with a fine tooth comb and an NK is information directly from the scum team.
As I said in my first post of Day 2 I most suspicious of Herd/Yankee and you. I don't want to put Yankee at L-1 for fear of a hammer vote. Therefore I think you need some pressure put on you.
vote Annachie-
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Why wait? If you have information that would cause town to view Yankee as scum you ought to spill it. What is going to happen over a couple of days that would make it more appropriate to wait to tell town your suspicions?Annachie wrote:
No given reason is different from no evidence.Yankee wrote:Annachie Reasons -
Pushing for my lynch with little to no evidence,
I will spill it all in a couple of days.-
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ksen Goon
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No, I can't believe someone would slip up that badly.Tyrope wrote:whoa... did Annachie just slip up there? he basicly said "I'm scum, go ahead and kill me"
It reads to me as if he's saying if lynching him will move us closer to getting the scum team than lynch me and get on with finding the scum players.
To me that was the pretty obvious read so I'm not sure how to read your ZOMG! post.-
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ksen Goon
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Like I said in #564 his OMGUS or whatever you want to call it was pretty suspicious to me. I'm willing to switch my vote from Annachie to Tyrope but I think that'd be a lynch with boberz's vote on him and I don't want to end the day prematurely.Patrick wrote:ksen, what's your read on Tyrope?
@mod-- can we get a vote count? thx-
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I am probably not going to have much time to be on this site between now and Monday, 12/28. But I'll still do what I can to look in at least once a day.
I still have Annachie, Tyrope, and Yankee as most likely scum suspects with Annachie dropping a little and Tyrope rising. I'm willing to vote for any of those 3.
boberz is still town, Patrick is still town in my view.
I was pretty positive Ether was town and I still lean heavily that way but I would really like to see her break her silence. The longer she stays quiet the more suspicious I get. Unless I missed something her last post, #543, was 5 days ago.
@mod:Is it time for a prod to Ether?
@Everyone else:After rereading the exchange between Annachie and Tyrope in posts #560 and #561 is it possible that was a bit of bussing on Tyrope's part in order to make himself look townier at the expense of his partner, if they are partners?-
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If Ether were active at all I'd think she'd be the obvious NK target of scum. Although at this point I think you'd be their biggest target since you are by far the most active player and are good at pushing people.boberz wrote:I think there is value in what we think the night kills would be now. So if annachie is the sole remaining scum I think patrick will be targeted. He and I are safest, but he is better at scum hunting he is obvious one to go.
@Mod: Prod.-
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Reading thread . . . I am fine with either an Annachie or a Tyrope lynch.boberz wrote:ksen yankee, out of you two, who would rather swap their vote. Even if patrick and I get on the same wagon it needs another. I do not fancy getting a replacement for ether and then have people requesting extra time to read etc.-
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Shouldn't Ether be responding in the thread? I'd love to have some sort of explanation for basically having a no-show during the last day. From my experience that is very scummy behavior especially from someone who is supposed to be helping us learn the game.starkmoon wrote:Ether has responded to prods over AIM.
Right now the only people I feel good about are boberz and myself.
Here are my reads in order of scumminess:
Annachie
Ether
Yankee
Patrick
boberz
With 6 remaining players and 2 scum left is this when we start seriously considering having a no-lynch day?
Rightnow I am going tovote Annachiebecause he is still my strongest scum read. That may change though once Ether decides to re-enter the game pending what she has to say.-
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Given this post about the potential makeup of the game the only way I'd know for sure at this point in the game was if I were scum or the cop.boberz wrote:That being said, help me out ksen. Do we have a roleblocker in this game?
And needless to say I wouldn't be raising my hand to claim either of those roles right now.-
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No, you didn't just "catch me out."boberz wrote:You wouldn't definately know if you were cop. Do you think that a no kill in the night didnt occur. The only person that could know that is scum. Have I caught you out?
The probability that the scum team put in a no-kill is so remote to me as to be not even worth considering.
What possible benefit would the scum team have in not putting in a NK last night?
And if I were the cop I'd be pretty damn sure at this point in the game given the possible makeups of the game given to us by the mod. If there is a doca cop then there is a roleblocker.and-
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I say it is remote in my experience because I've never seen or been part of a scum team that has passed on putting in a NK. Therefore, as I said, the possibility is so remoteto meas to be not even worth considering.
boberz, with two scum left do you really want the doc outing him/herself at this point? (BTW, that's not a subtle claim of doc by me)-
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ksen Goon
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ksen Goon
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1) If there's a cop and he's only had 1 good view then outing right now may not be particularly helpful. If he's had 2 good views then the case for outing today increases. If a person he's viewed as town is about to get lynched then I think he needs to speak up and stop it. If he's viewed a scum then they need to out right now.boberz wrote:Why?
2) If there is a doc then I think he does not out since there are still two scum left which means there will definitely be at least one more round of night action. If the doc had a successful defend then I can see outing later if the person he defended is about to get lynched.
Either way I think it would be best to wait to hear from Ether before there is a mass claim. The day just started so we have plenty of time to claim if we have to.
The rush to have a mass claim this early in the day doesn't sit right with me.-
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ksen Goon
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I really hate doing this this early. But it's clear boberz isn't going to let it drop.
I'm the cop.
As I said in the beginning on day 1 it wouldn't surprise me if one of the SE's or the IC was a member of the scum team so that the scum player would have someone to get advice from as well.
With that in mind:
Night 1 I viewed Incog who, obviously was town.
On Night 2 I moved away from that thinking and decided to check one of the two remaining players who seemed scummiest at the time, Yankee. He came up town.
I almost viewed Ether and now that I hear she is being replaced I wish I had gone through with it.
Those are my views. I don't expect to live through the night unless there's a doc (which I suspect there is) and he/she decides to protect me.
Did I mention I really hated outing this early?-
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ksen Goon
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ksen Goon
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