Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[neko2086]

/Confirm

[neko2086]

EST; RVS for no particular reason; and I am returning after a year-long absence, but was on the site over a year before that.

vote: implosion

for making silly declarations and drawing inane connections on page one. This game is probably moving out of RVS rather quickly but dammit I haven't even posted yet!

[neko2086]

^ What he said.

I think it's fairly obvious I'm not saying there are four things wrong with implosion's post.

More later, and I'll post something serious for the joykills.

[neko2086]

OK, I think everyone's at least said something by now, so it should be safe to get serious.

I actually don't have any huge issue with implosion at the moment, so

unvote

. I don't like his post, but it's not like there's anything really scummy about it.

I have the feeling Ice is going to get on my nerves, and I think he's making mountains out of molehills (and yes, those are plural on purpose this time), but we really do have to start somewhere, and I don't see any malice in it at the moment. Overzealous maybe, but not scummy.

WMC I'm liking less. I'm not sure I buy that his RVS vote was a trap. It looked like a normal joking RVS vote. That somebody would think to try to make an accusation out of that vote would never occur to me, yet we just happen to have a player here who actually would do such a thing. I really don't think that says anything about scumminess so much as it does about anal-retentiveness. I guess when WMC says 'you all missed the point,' it seems like he actually thinks he has laid a trap, but I really just don't see how that could be effective for catching scum. Newb scum, maybe, but at the very limit. I absolutely agree that on page two you have to start somewhere, no matter how small, but really?

Anyway, what stands out most to me so far is this:

Also, right now I'm only curious about why Implosion felt the need to establish himself as some type of leader, and why he's so anxious to jump in... this is usually a scum tell, and I implore nobody to just skip over it and excuse it as his "style of play."

Two questions for you, neil:
1. Establishing oneself as a leader is a scumtell why and according to whom?
2. If this is indeed a scumtell, why does Implosion stick out to you as opposed to Yoshi or Ice?

[neko2086]

I suppose so, but I just wouldn't have ever thought, "Oho, I know, I'm going to place a joke vote on X for asking too many questions, and then I'll go ahead and answer them. That'll sure get the scum in a tizzy." So, way to be clever I guess, but it seems rather pointless. It's just that it was a joke vote, so it shouldn't EVER have been an issue for such a banal contradiction. The fact that Ice is making an issue out of it aside, I just don't see why you would think it could become an issue. Anybody see what I'm saying?

[neko2086]

I highly suspect ICEninja of causing the storm that has shut everything down. If my power goes out, I'm coming after you. (I shouldn't have to, but I better specify that this is a joke). Congrats on getting a job--that's not easy to do right now.

Seriously now, WMC is gathering quite a few votes rather quickly. I don't like this last post by over9000 so much. I mean, I know the ideas behind a WMC wagon have already been beaten to death, but I just generally dislike a ditto vote that contributes nothing. There's no question to WMC, and there's no attempt to explore any other avenues. WMC is certainly not the only potential scum suspect right now, and there's plenty of daylight left, so this just looks like coasting.

On the topic, I really do think, as bizarre as it is, that WMC was trying to lay some sort of trap. What else could his "you missed the point" post mean? (not a rhetorical question--this is really bothering me). I can't tell whether this is a scummy move or a poorly conceived, town-motivated one. I'm just as interested as Implosion to see an instance of this being at all effective.

Mongoose's 64 is rather terrible, and I agree with Implosion's assessment. What is really interesting about Mongoose's post is that he was rattled enough by this distancing accusation that he bothered to make a second joke vote to rectify the situation (which really shouldn't be perceived as a "situation" in the first place). Nervous scum?

[neko2086]

WMC, yes I did repeat myself somewhat, but it's because nobody seems to have picked up on what I said the first time. It's important because what people are perceiving as uberscummy on your part seems to me to be possibly just a poorly conceived idea, which is not necessarily scummy. So yes, I am on the fence about you. I'm sorry I don't have black and white reads on page 4.

Now, what exactly in my post is fluff, and what is stating the obvious? Are you happy with 9000's vote, for instance? I mean, you just quote my entire post and then make broad generalizations about it with no examples, then say you could jump on a wagon of me.

Ice, if you agree with most of what I said, in what way do you also agree with WMC's assessment. What is wrong with my scum-hunting?

By the way, I don't think the trend of posting a comprehensive list of scum and town reads needs to continue. Listing one's top scum suspects should suffice. For the record, I'm looking mainly at neil, mongoose, and 9000.

[neko2086]

Wow, really?

vote: Neil

. I had 2 questions for you. So are you sure you don't have anything to add? And, if you're not posting just because your name came up, then why? You really didn't contribute anythin here.

By the way, I'm not saying everyone needs to post their top scum suspects right now, just that it's really not a good idea to be drawing a complete list of town and scum reads for the reason Neil just mentioned.

[neko2086]

Neil, my questions aren't irrelevant. You made a claim about something being a scumtell, and I really don't see how it is. And if it is a scumtell, it is very odd that you singled out Implosion when you could have made the same argument for either Ice or Yoshi. Implosion looked like an easy target.

[neko2086]

Sorry all, but I won't have time to get a good post in until tomorrow. I've just finished my phd entrance exam, which was terrifying, and need to do things that require no thought today. I'll be back up to speed tomorrow though.

[neko2086]

Ok, getting caught up--

unvote

Still keeping a close eye on King. Regardless of RL issues, neil made some real scummy moves. I dislike his post 118 where he tries to take attention away from neil's scumminess. Yes he's gone, but you don't get a blank slate. Such is the life of a replacement. On the other hand, I don't see anything in his other posts to be worried about so far.

I don't so much like Nameless' post 121. It's taking Ice's vote somewhat out of context. There is perhaps a bit of hypocrisy in that series of posts, but not to the extent that Nameless is trying to make it appear (and I really don't care where the sliding scale is). o9 has posted zero helpful things thus far, so there's really no comparing him to Ice here.

Looking at the votes right now, I don't like the WMC wagon. o9 is probably highest on my list, with perhaps mongoose next. I have no solid read on silavor yet, but I really don't see much in the "scumslip." It's slightly suspicious that he used the phrasing "the entire scumteam," but if he hadn't followed it up with an elaboration, then we would be talking about a pretty substantial scumslip.

Despite King being on the wagon, I really think o9 merits another vote

vote: over9000

What I'm specifically interested in from you is what exactly makes WMC's trap more likely to be "scummy" than simply poorly conceived. Also, there are over 6 pages now, so there should be plenty to comment on. Your question to q21 looks absolutely pointless. Unless you're suggesting this is some sort of scumslip (I can't imagine what it could be), I really don't see what you're trying to get out of this.

[neko2086]

I actually don't find you nearly as scummy as neil, but I still hesitate.

Implosion, it seems to me the WMC wagon grew just as quickly with much less justification. One of those jumping on his wagon with little justification is o9. At any rate, do you not see the utility in a wagon on o9 right now?

[neko2086]

I realised that the only scum motivation I could think of for implosion's posts would be if _over9000 was scum.

How so? He's going to defend himself regardless of whether he's town or scum. Or what posts are you referring to?

[neko2086]

the only scum motivation (other than pretty bad play) that I can think of for him saying what he has about the people voting for _over9000 would be if over is also scum. If over was town he could have just waited till tommorow to say stuff about people on his wagon being scum and not risked himself at all.

This is what I was getting after. So you're saying it would only be beneficial for scum to attack a popular town-wagon

after

the fact? I really don't see why, if implosion is scum and over is town, he would need to wait until tomorrow to attack the wagon if it were the prevailing one. Scum could just as easily attack a popular wagon to make themselves look like they're thinking outside the box and to paint the others as opportunistic.

I just think it's strange that implosion is so focused on the over wagon and not the WMC wagon. It sounds as though, from his perspective, that the over wagon is scummy because over himself is an easy target. Here's what he says about the WMC wagon:

I don't really like this wagon either. He isn't as much of an easy target, but he is to an extent. And since he provided a game in which he sort of set a trap (assuming that he had a different name on a different forum) I'm inclined to not find the "trap" scummy

So, implosion finds WMC to be less scummy and therefore less of an easy target. So that makes his wagon less scummy? There is a major disconnect in logic here it seems. Implosion, can you clarify how WMC's wagon isn't just as suspect if not more so than over's?

[neko2086]

Wow, sorry to be so behind on this.

Thanks to our replacements.

Saint- Obviously welcome to have this slot replaced with someone who will actually contribute. I have two things to say about the SK speculation-- First, it's rather baseless. He gives an impressionistic judgment of my play. Second, that impressionistic judgment is a little dubious. I don't understand how my being distant from the town is scummy. In my mind, the only way to play this game is to question everything and everybody. The only people here who know who they can trust is scum. I'm very interested to know the specifics on this read.

The rest of his posts thus far--I do not at all like how easily he claims mongoose and zdenek to be town. Call me scum for being "nervous" if you want, but blindly following others means you likely know something we don't.

King- Why Saint's method of entering the game is worth bringing up is beyond me. It makes no difference. This looks to me like you're just trying to find something to criticize and not actually scumhunting. Also, your speculation of Saint as the SK is almost as bad as his own. Why is the use of jokes suddenly a SK tell?

Emp- Nice to see you again, but why am I scum? Looking forward to some specifics on that and your other scum reads.

I'm having a hard time seeing this supposedly damning case on implosion in terms of the ISO. If he does indeed read mongoose as scummier than over, I'm not sure I see the problem. I really don't like Mb's willingness to jump on an implosion wagon so easily.

Saint's newest post- how exactly is that a slip? I meant "what"-- over made a completely pointless request for q21 to explain his typo, and I couldn't (and still can't) imagine what he could possibly have been going after.

[neko2086]

The joys of modding... speaking of,

mod

-- perhaps once we get the replacement, can we also get a votecount update since some votes and quite a few names have changed? Thx.

Saint-- I really don't see anything suspicious with mb's asking why such and such makes him scummy. This is a completely legitimate question to ask. Possibly the most important one--people need to back up their claims of what is scummy. Also, I hate to be the fluff police (I really don't mind it when it's marginal), but does 264 merit its own post? That whole sequence of posts really doesn't amount to much. In general, the cases you are trying to build are attempting to be novel but are based on really inconsequential details (or no details at all), as though you're trying to appear to be helpful.

Emp-- I don't see how you think you're helping us at the moment. Based on what I saw last game, this doesn't quite feel like your usual play. The one-liners I'm used to, but not this 'I'm only going on gut' business. Are you trying something new here? Maybe the better question is if you're caught up (i.e. is this what we should be expecting from you or is there more coming?).

[neko2086]

Welcome, replacements.

(Just by the way, I advise you all to be aware of Empkings meta)

What is his meta, and what should this tell us? This looks like you're making excuses for him.

In general, I don't care for meta arguments. Having just finished a game with Emp, however, I am aware of his meta, and there is a unique element of town-emp missing here. Assuming that Emp is settled in (hence my questions), I'm surprised to see that he's not clamoring for a massclaim. In our last game (which is completed, so it should be legit to discuss here), Emp (who was town) tried to convince everyone that the most pro-town thing to do in a mini normal is to massclaim on D1. He also claimed that he would do this in every normal mini as seen in this exchange (found here-http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p2605330):

So we can assume that in future games emp, you will constantly propose MC in mini normals?

.

You can.

Emp, why not a massclaim this game? If it is supposed to be so detrimental to scum and relatively harmless to town, why are you not suggesting we do it here?

Pie-- Let me get this straight--Ice is scummy because you get bad vibes about his pushing the WMC wagon, and q21 is also scummy for joining that wagon. So, what is it exactly about the WMC wagon that you don't like? You apparently don't even have a solid town read on him. Also, how does knowing that mongoose is now Emp justify your vote change?

[neko2086]

Emp-- is it too late in the day for MC, then? As soon as you replaced in, I was sure there was going to be another early MC debacle.

I'm going to have to take some time tomorrow to sort through this exchange between Emp and King. Like King, I really don't like Emp's asserting that he's on the right track. He has no reason to think so. But then again, he has an overinflated ego, and that really isn't a scumtell. King seems to have gotten preoccupied in this discussion, and frankly, I don't think either of the two are helping the town at the moment. But as I said, I need to look through this in more detail.

Zedenek- You say there are better lynches than Ice today. Is this implying that otherwise, Ice might be a good lynch?

mb- what about implosion? Not too long ago, you had him leaning scum.

More later.

[neko2086]

I meant to post something substantial yesterday, but sadly this weekend is getting eaten up by RL. Anyway, some thoughts for the moment:

The exchange between King and Emp is really distracting. Back on p 15 Setael is upset that no one is reading or commenting on his posts. It's honestly very hard to pay attention to a case against ice when 1) he's obviously not going to be a lynch candidate today and 2) Emp and King are dominating the discussion. I really don't see either one of them coming out if any better than the other. Yes, King is engaging in pointless rhetoric (annoying playstyle is not scummy), but Emp is fueling it (to cement your read? But it's clear your read has already been cemented, so why goad him on?).

Speaking of Emp's reads-- you pegged me as scum based on gut as soon as you replaced, and now you are fabricating a story around it to make that read make sense, it seems to me. Also, why do you have the impression that the town is self-destructing? This implies multiple bad wagons, and there's no way you can know if the town is self-destructing unless you know who the townies are.

Zedenek--You keep saying Ice isn't a good lynch today, but I'm not wondering about today, I'm wondering about in general, do you think he might be a good lynch? You seem to be trying to skirt the issue.

Personally, I really don't see the case on Ice at the moment. He has changed his reads, and somehow this is alarming. Reads can change, and unless I'm missing something, they've been justified. I haven't, however, had the time to look at this timing issue that Set brings up, so when I have the time later (probably tomorrow) I need to take a look at that.

If Emp is indeed mason, btw, it would indeed be really stupid for the partner to be outed. I don't like the suggestions otherwise at all.

[neko2086]

I think saying he admitted to being scum is quite a stretch. He admited to having made posts in which he wasn't scumhunting (i.e. arguing with you), which is certainly not helpful, but this doesn't mean (in principle) that he hasn't been scumhunting elsewhere. If he weren't scumhunting elsewhere, yes this would be quite scummy. Now, whether or not he actually is doing any scumhunting is debatable, and that's another thing I need to look into, but to say he has basically admitted to being scum is a stretch.

And King, this isn't the same as saying you slipped. He's trying to show (albeit in a faulty way) that you are intentionally trying to distract the town. There's a good deal of misrep coming from both ends here.

[neko2086]

I really just wanna know if you think Ice is scummy. I didn't think this would be so difficult. It's not going to make a difference for today, but I would like you to say one way or the other before the day is over.

A question for all (especially those voting Emp)--If Emp is indeed a mason and his partner were to claim, do you believe we will be able to agree on another lynch before deadline? At the moment, I don't see any clear direction that this would go except for a no-lynch or a hasty scramble for an alternative lynch.

I'm still not sure if I even believe his claim. Will think about this more later. Need to run.

[neko2086]

If it absolutely came down to voting Emp and no-lynch, I would obviously vote him, but I really don't think he's the best lynch for today. I'm actually somewhat inclined to believe his claim, mostly because after thinking about it, scum claiming mason really doesn't make that much sense. If he were scum and were going to claim something to live longer, why not something with which he would at least have the remotest chance surviving to the end? When it comes time to MC, he'd be screwed, whereas if he had claimed something independent, as long as nobody could counterclaim or investigate him, he may just be able to convince everyone. If anyone has thought MC scenarios through, it's emp

That said, I'm agreeing with Set and finding mb to be a much better candidate. I didn't like the way he attached himself to the implosion wagon earlier, and I don't like the way he's jumping on the emp wagon now either. In fact, after ISOing him, he never clearly states why he thinks Emp is scummy before saying he's willing to lynch him. Consider the following:

I've read all of the posts that have been made since, I last posted, but I don't have time to say much except that I'm happy with a saint or empking lynch.

Before this post, this is the only mention of Emp as doing something scummy:

Empking:

Firstly, he goes through his first two posts of the game without putting on a vote. This is a deliberately anti-town action and oner I would not expect from town.

Why is this deliberately anti-town? I haven't heard of replacing in and not voting as a scumtell.

Ooh, Darth Yoshi hasn't heard of it. My mistake then.

It slows the game down and reduces momentum. You should (almost) always (outside of lynch or lose) have your vote on someone. Itys a scumtell because there's an anti-town motivation but not a town motivation.

His first three posts were immediately in a row, and his 3rd was a vote. Good job trying to make something completely not scummy scummy. Serious FoS on empking for that.

Mind telling us what we should know?

Posts like

Unvote

Vote: Nameless

Can be normal for him.

Notice that this also includes a "be careful of his meta" caveat.

I'm willing to move to avoid a no-lynch, but this seems like the best direction to me. Implosion is a possibility, but I get a stronger scum read from mb here, and I think he was trying to ride along the implosion wagon earlier. Ice--you said you see the case on mb and would consider voting him. If mb is scummy, in my mind he almost has to be ranked above implosion considering the vote.

unvote; vote:mb53

[neko2086]

I really don't line mongoose/emp's play at all, but I'm inclined to believe the claim, so of course I don't like the lynch. My vote is a little hasty, but it's nearly deadline and there aren't many options. Saint is only a secondary option for most, an the other potential wagons are nameless, which I really don't see as a good option today, and implosion. I've given what I think is a pretty damn good reason for people to vote mb. I haven't said much about him before, but not many have. As Set said he's flown under the radar. What has he done this game to try to help us?

Mb- you weren't technically on the wagon, but you changed your read of him from town to scum with very little explanation once he became unpopular. And are you just waiting for someone else to point out what's scummy about my post rather than do your own analysis?

Seriously, lynching emp right now is not helpful. We can figure out if he's lying soon enough. I'd prefer an mb lynch first and a saint lynch next, though mb flipping scum would probably make both saint and implosion more likely town, so in terms of likelihood of scumminess and information to gain, mb is the best choice.

[neko2086]

Nameless- your statement that I was letting mb fly under the radar is complete speculation. I don't see how this makes anything I said worse. The similarity between his play and my own is minimal. I'll try to make it clearer-- Emp enters the game, ruffles some feathers, and mb says 'be aware of his meta.' Later mb gives emp an fos for "trying to make something not scummy scummy." That is the

only

thing mb says about emp's possible scumminess before declaring soon afterwards that he is OK with an emp lynch. Does that seem reasonable to you? Nowhere in that post does he say why he is OK with an Emp lynch.

And yet, I do give reasons why mb should be lynched, but since I hadn't suspected him before that makes it just as bad as mb's post?

All (especially those voting Saint): I still feel strongly that an mb lynch is better than a Saint lynch. See my previous post, and if you disagree, please state why.

[neko2086]

Saint, I'm not defending you. I think mb's lynch is optimal since he's scummy, and if he is indeed scum, I think it will shed some light on both you and implosion, thus the information to be gained is significant. Yet, I still find you scummy, and if the town thinks you're the best lynch, so be it. It will still be far superior to an Emp lynch.

Others have more or less said it, but it's worth emphasizing that the fact you mention that you're

trying

to play townie and focusing so much on your playstyle is pretty well exactly what scum do. I feel strongly that townies really don't need to think so much about how they're playing, but I am also aware that not everyone agrees (hence the abundance of alts). So, I wouldn't consider you saying what you've said as town beyond the realm of possibilities.

Zdenek, if you still think Nameless is scum, do you think it is more likely that Saint is his partner than mb?

[neko2086]

I'm finding myself partial to a Saint lynch once again. His first post today just seems all too convenient in that now that Pie is gone, he wants to base today's suspects on those of Pie's that are not Saint. Besides, why Pie's list? Why not mb's? Other than Saint, he listed implosion and swiftstrike. Why shouldn't we be looking into them? I don't have the time for it now, but I'd like to look at possible connections here.

I need to reread implosion and nameless

Swiftstrike- at the end of the day yesterday you said you would do another read of the game. Surely you've had the time now to do some digging and formulate some opinions, yet you enter D2 with a general statement against massclaim and a soft question to Saint. So who do you think is scummy?

[neko2086]

Zdenek-- seriously? Massclaim is not the only thing that has been mentioned about Saint. Nameless has given a pretty substantial list of reasons that Saint has responded to minimally, and Ice has pointed out a rather obvious contradiction in terms of basing his play on Pie's final words. Did you not read any of this, or how might you explain that based on meta?

Emp-- earlier you said you were still leaning town on Saint, now you say either he or nameless needs to be lynched. Why the sudden change in reads, when you seemed so positive he was town yesterday?

Saint- still wondering what you think about looking into swiftstrike based on mb's last post. I'm also now wondering why your opinion of Pie has changed so drastically.

All--sorry I can't post more right now. Sucky week.

vote:Saint

. This seems to be the way to get a response from you.

[neko2086]

mb flipping town obviously is not as helpful as if he were to flip scum. But, having exhausted that possible reason to think Saint might be town, I feel more confident in Saint-scum. I'm under the impression (a gut read from recent actions until I can go back and see if it checks out) that there could be a Saint-implosion-swiftstrike connection

I don't think my vote on Saint should be that much of a surprise, anyway. It's clearly not

only

to get a response. I'm well aware he's now at L-2. Is this a problem?

I think until I can figure out if I really believe Saint is the best lynch for today, my vote is more useful on his wagon than anywhere else at the moment, and certainly more helpful than not being anywhere

[neko2086]

All-- No time to even think about this game right now, but I will hopefully be able to post tomorrow. If not, I certainly can on Friday. I need to put a fairly hefty reread into this game. I have some initial reactions though:

Just based on an initial impression, my immediate thought was that Ice actually had investigated Emp and was trying to keep people off emp wagon without causing too much suspicion. My second thought is that Ice investigated implosion. I need to go back and see if either of those possibilities make sense. Nameless, can you go into more detail about why you don't think he investigated Emp?

I don't at all see how King can interpret Ice's iso as having investigated Emp and getting a scum result. Why would he get that kind of info and be so vague about his read on Emp, and ultimately petition for a completely different wagon?

[neko2086]

OK, gunna try to catch up a bit.

As far as speculation on Ice's result goes, I don't think a guilty-implosion is entirely impossible, but it doesn't seem too likely. Based on his first post on D2, I was inclined to think it was--his saying that things haven't changed much would make sense with guilty-implosion since he was campaigning pretty heavily for his lynch on D1. He expresses some doubt, but why shouldn't he? He wouldn't want to out himself as cop, and at any rate a cop can never be entirely sure of his results.

It's the rest of D2 that makes less sense with a guilty-implosion result. He is quite happy to switch to a Saint vote for the remainder of the day. He makes frequent references to a likely Saint-implosion team, but he never really pushes to move back to an implosion lynch.

So if he didn't investigate implosion (or Saint, as he would have gotten an innocent result), I would guess he would have investigated one of Emp and Nameless. Ice never had a clear read on either of them, and they both attracted a fair amount of suspicion on D1. I can see him thinking that, being so sure of implosion as scum, investigating one of these would be more informative. Based on his D2 posts, though, I don't think he investigated Emp. He says he's still worried about him, but wants to leave discussion on him aside. I think there's a slight possibility he investigated Nameless and got a town result. He says that after a reread, he thinks nameless is town, and he goes along with his reasonings to vote Saint.

RRgh. Gotta run, but I'll pick up from here.

[neko2086]

Emp--I've only ever played as cop once, and it was one of my first games. Can you elaborate on why Ice would have completely abandoned his case on implosion if he had gotten a guilty on him?

Implosion's VCA is helpful only in that it summarizes some vote counts. I'm no mathematician, but it seems like he's pretty much pulling probability of scum (and number of scum) on any wagon out of nowhere.

Zedenek--so you're comfortable possibly putting us in lylo just to avoid having Emp in lylo? It sounds like throwing away a lynch to me, and we simply can't afford to do so. I suppose there is a slight possibility that a scum team could fake a mason claim, but it seems far too risky. Here's what's really weird though--earlier today you said there's almost no doubt emp will be killed tonight. Now we need to lynch emp to make sure he doesn't live to tomorrow. Sounds even more like you're trying to waste a lynch.

I'm still not extremely happy with your aversion to the Saint wagon yesterday. There was a laundry list of decent reasons to vote him, and yet you stated you wouldn't vote him, knowing his meta, until somebody pointed out something scummy he's done. Actually, after I pointed this out and asked you how you could explain Saint's crappy play based on meta, you never responded. It's almost as if you knew Saint was going to turn up town and wanted to stay off the wagon.

Unfortunately, unless someone can explain to me why Ice might have abandoned his implosion case the way he did with a guilty result, I really don't think he's given us much to work with today in terms of his role results. He has, however, laid out a nice case against implosion that has merit on its own. Additionally, implosion shows the same kind of aversion to the saint wagon that zdenek does, so I would not at all be surprised if they were partners. I'm fine with an implosion lynch, but there is plenty of daylight left, and I think we need to take a serious look at zdenek, who has not really been pressured at all this game and hasn't really been too involved

vote: zdenek

[neko2086]

Oh grrrrrl...

Emp, what was your plan if you made it to lylo?

Implosion: I know you never gave a real probability, but you associate a certain number of scum to each wagon with no real reasoning.

King, I've forgotten that you've made the same call for a lynch on emp as zdenek. Looking back you said we all agreed we'd kill him if he made it too far. Did we? I don't remember this. Also, why hold back a scum case on someone you think is scum? So he doesn't attack you again? Because it was no longer convenient? At any rate, why don't you make that list if all the scummy things he's done lately now?

By the way policy lynching a fake-claimed mason may be a whole different story. I generally dislike policy lynch, but I'm going to read up on LAL (and if someone with experience on this can make a good case for or against it, all the better)

[neko2086]

Hm, yeah I think we need to lynch emp, but please nobody hammer anytime soon. I have things I need to get done today, and I'm still waiting on a response from King and zdenek.

[neko2086]

Sorry all-- won't have any time for this until Sunday. I don't even know where to start with this except for looking into zedenek again and probably implosion. I have to rethink this game though.

[neko2086]

I hate to do this again, but I've been grading all day (woo spring break) and won't have time for a good post until tomorrow.

King-- I get that you didn't want to clutter the thread, but at the same time, if you felt so sure that Emp was scum, why abandon it completely? You were cluttering the thread by arguing with emp and not actually trying to engage the rest of us in a conversation about him. If you really thought he was scum, why not talk to us instead of him--he's not the one you needed to convince. That was my point.

Why is Yoshi your only town read?

[neko2086]

Small window to work with, so I'm going to make the most of it.

Set, for realz? My random vote again? You haven't brought anything up that hasn't already been discussed. Also, WMC clearly thought he was laying some sort of trap. If you can make other sense of his posts otherwise, please enlighten me, but it looked very strongly as though people were jumping on a very easy target with no real good reason. His "you all missed the point" post was after he voted Ice, who apparently fell for his 'trap,' so yes, it does refer to his trap, unless you have a better explanation. I think at this point you're belaboring some very useless arguments against me.

Yoshi, even if we're in lylo (which I agree is likely), there is very little chance of scum attempting a quicklynch at this point. Set's vote isn't really all that irresponsible. She is right in that you've not really gotten any attention this game. Why do you think you're still here? Why for example, do you think Ice was the NK after Saint's lynch and not you, especially if implosion is scum? I need to reread you pretty carefully.

I have a very strong feeling that one of implosion and swift is scum. I'm leaning toward scum-swift, who has really not contributed much this game, but has been happy to jump on the major wagons. What worries me most is his voting implosion on speculation that Ice got a guilty result on him when really it doesn't seem so likely that this is the case. I don't think he actually looked into the feasibility of it. There is a possibility that they are both scum, and that swift felt pressured to bus.

I also think there's a good chance both implosion and zdenek are scum. Both avoided the Saint wagon like the plague, as though they knew it was bad. Their interactions today seem soft, but anyway I need to look into this more later. Gotta run.

[neko2086]

King, I thought I addressed everything. What is it exactly you want to know?

To your most recent question, if Yoshi and Set are both town (which I am finding increasingly likely), I would like to see a three person scumteam try and pull off a quicklynch. In my last game, I was part of a two person scumteam with daytalk, and even then it wasn't so easy to coordinate a quicklynch. If we're in lylo, there is a three person scumteam and most likely with no daytalk, or that would be terribly imbalanced, which means they have to coordinate somehow in-game. To be safe, Set, if you're town, please check this thread frequently in case you need to unvote quickly.

In rereading, I'm favoring a swift-zed pairing, mostly because of this:

post 610

Swift replacing in and immediately saying that he doesn't like that

Empking was insinuating that he his is scum buddy

was anti-town, and it bothers me.
--Cut--

No I said I didn't like him insinuating I was his mason partner (as he had claimed Mason), so scum slip much there.

VOTE ZDENEK
FOS EMPKING

The "slip" he catches is really nothing extraordinary. I say this not only because I don't see much in it myself, but also because nobody else really seems to see much in it, and on top of that, swift doesn't seem to be too convinced of it himself. He later admits that he didn't push the case too much, which is an understatement. He didn't push it at all. During this time, while the wagon on Saint built up, he made one comment on Saint:

...
Why is it better to lynch more active scum than an inactive one, surely a more active scum is more likely to slip that an inactive one? At the moment Saint your jumping wagons to start a counter wagon on anyone has me wondering if I have read this Zdenek thing right and whether you should be today's lynch.

I don't know how I missed his aversion to the Saint wagon as well. It's rather striking. He also makes his post about suspecting Yoshi because of his playstyle. Yet, he keeps his vote on zdenek until the end of the day.

It is possible, of course, that he picked out zed somewhat randomly, but based on their interactions, I'd guess a scum pairing. Now, to test this with my earlier speculation of swift-implosion and zed-implosion, it should be noted that implosion has listed two town reads, neither of which are these two.

I want to reiterate something: the interaction between zed and implosion is very soft. To illustrate:

KTS is my biggest townread,

Really? Please explain this.

I thought he looked like town when he was arguing with Empking. He had logic and didn't look like mafia.

from today, and from yesterday:

While I am not a big fan of the case on Implosion based on ICE's posts, but after skimming his ISO, I can see that there is a reasonable case that can be made on him. In particular, I would like to point out that in his more recent post, he comments that he doesn't have any scum reads. This can be a scum-tell because of the difficulty that scum can have faking scum hunting. Because of this, I am not too unhappy with the fact that he claimed. I'm pretty doubtful that there will be any other pro-town roles in a game with masons (assuming Empking is telling the truth) and a cop, and anyone could figure that out, so the VT claim was expected.

I claimed because I'm (or was) at L-1. I don't see how having "difficulty faking scumhunting" would lead me to say I have no fosses if I were in reality scum; the job of mafia is to avoid looking like mafia. Doing something as blatantly scummy as saying I have no fosses isn't something scum would probably do. Now, obviously, you can respond to this by saying it's WIFOM. Then again, so is everything in mafia.

Also, without having to quote the whole thing, in implosion's VCA, he mentions early on that he doesn't like zed's voting pattern because he has a "useless vote" for awhile before jumping on a townie wagon. He never mentions that useless vote again, even though that's pretty much been the case the entire game.

I'm not entirely convinced of this entire combination yet, but I feel pretty confident there is a pairing here somewhere.

[neko2086]

King, I addressed that, even though you didn't even formulate that in a way that anyone should expect to have to address it. Again, arguing with somebody and making an argument as part of a case is not the same thing.

I'm in favor of massclaim. Since King's alignment is claimed, if we're going to popcorn, he may as well decide who goes first.

Yoshi, you're right in that NK speculation is not always fruitful, but I don't think it can be completely ignored in the position we're in. It is, in a sense, some of the only real information we have to work with. I'm just trying to think of the possibilities of motivations considering those who are left.

Implosion, that argument is terribly flawed. Lylo is not an easy position for anyone, and I think the scum's position is being highly overestimated, which could be very detrimental to us if we start making too many assumptions. Nothing can be taken for granted at this point.

[neko2086]

Sorry I can't post more at the moment, but VT. Is that everyone?

[neko2086]

Implosion, while it does only take one mislynch for us to lose, I also have the feeling that it will really only take one correct lynch to break the game open and win, and I would guess the scum feel the same way. With an entire game's worth of interactions to analyse, the scum have just as much riding on this as town and I don't think we can be sure how they're going to play this.

That said, we may be about to make that break in the game. I want to wait to comment on the point Swift bolded until Yoshi responds, and I would like others to as well.

On the rest of the developments, I was a little skeptical of the way the claim was written as well, but if there's precedence he's made this kind of a night action request before, then I suppose at least that part is believable. The part that still makes the least sense to me is what Set has pointed out, in that swift's response to "why haven't you used it yet" clearly does not leave room for a roleblock possibility--instead he gives reasons for not using it. Then later, he says he actually did, despite having given a reason not to on that occasion. I could see scum motivation for doing this--trying to appear to have done what would be best for the town--but I don't know why he should feel the need to do this if he were town. He reveals he's relieved to know Set thought last night would have been a good time to use the shot, but swift shouldn't have felt so worried about it in the first place. "Why haven't you used it yet" clearly indicates 'you should have used it by now, so why haven't you?' I don't think town would feel the need to conceal their actions like this, especially knowing we have already lynched someone for lying in this game. And, 'omitting the fact isn't lying'... maybe not directly, but I'm sure my grandmother would feel very strongly that it does.

Swift, why didn't you think it was important to mention your night action right away?

If I had to make my guess now, I would say there is a likely swift-yoshi-implosion team

[neko2086]

Imp, all I'm saying is we can't take anything for granted. If you can't see why, fine, but stop trying to convince people that the scum are going to make this easy for us.

Here's what really, really super irks me:

Swift can come up with the convenient excuse of being roleblocked now that he knows, with a doc and cop having flipped, that there is almost certainly a scum roleblocker in the setup.

This phrasing looks scummy. You seem to imply both that Swift is town and that Swift is mafia in the same sentence; scum by saying that he can come up with a convenient excuse, and town by saying that he knows "almost certainly" that there's a scum roleblocker. It would make sense if you inserted "from town's view" before there being a scum roleblocker, but you didn't.

I specifically asked for nobody to comment on what Yoshi said for this very reason. You fed him an answer, which he took up. Why say what you think he should have said before he had a chance to explain himself? It's still not the answer I was expecting if he were town, though.

Yoshi's response is pretty well what I expected if he were scum. I think the mistake swift pointed out could have come from town not thinking things entirely through. It seems like Yoshi is trying to salvage his argument here, and while I suppose it's feasible he's telling the truth, it just seems so contrived to me. This is definitely just a gut feeling, but I'm not inclined to believe him. I also feel that the way he mentioned the roleblocker suggested that he's got inside info. Actually, quick poll: who would have guessed there could be a mafia roleblocker before Swift and Yoshi mentioned it? I didn't, but I wasn't really thinking about it, so I want to know if anyone else found Yoshi's comment strange.

I think Swift and Yoshi have both been caught in a lie, and I think implosion is trying to cover for Swift and coach Yoshi. I'm feeling comfortable voting for any one of these.

[neko2086]

Yoshi-- nah, not really fluff. We have to assess the believability of people's statements, excuses, and yours sounds contrived. Gut is not the most reliable tool in this game, but it is certainly a valid one IMO.

Swift--I think Yoshi was trying like hell to bus you to make it through end game. I don't at all understand your last question. Imp fed yoshi an answer and he's defending you. I don't see what more I can say to make that clearer.

I'll have some time later to look over arguments against set, bit I'm pretty certain I would rather lynch one of the three I've already mentioned.

[neko2086]

Swift, surely that's the easiest move. But, I think Yoshi believed that nobody would believe your claim, that you would inevitably be lynched, and that he best be on the wagon early in order to sail through the rest of the game. If he were to try to defend you, you could both be lynched. Thus, easiest move does not equal best move.

I still prefer swift-Yoshi-Implosion as lynch options, in that order. If this comes down to Zed and Set, I'll vote Zed. I was suspicious of him earlier, and I think there's a better chance of him being scum. I need to run again, but I should be able to check in again this afternoon.

[neko2086]

vote: setael

Huzzah

[neko2086]

That was fun, though this last day didn't go quite as I was expecting. Swift's claim changed everything.

Sorry to Yoshi and Z for going after you. The town really wasn't expecting scum to attack each other in lylo, so in the case one of us was going to go down, I didn't want it to be so obvious who to lynch next.

Implosion--I really really meant what I said earlier about not taking things for granted. Trying to force a quick lynch would seem to be the easiest thing to do, but for a 3-person scum team to try to do that right away would have raised suspicions immensely, and out us all. Thus, if we weren't careful, we could have lost the game in lylo as well. I would have explained it better, but then I was afraid someone would say that only scum would have wanted to think that through so much.

IP, you'll see it in the QT thread, but that was more about who we wanted to keep around than who to get rid of. I don't know that Saint could be blamed for anything, but possibly Emp. It's really unfortunate he didn't know what his role was.

Nexus, I enjoyed having you as a mod very much. This is the second game in which the mod had to deal with a ton of replacements, and I'm impressed again by patience. Thanks for a great game!

[neko2086]

Yeah, I always just assume the qt will be made available. I echo yoshi in that regardless of alignment this was a very good group of ppl to play with. Ice rubbed me the wrong way at first, bit I actually really enjoyed playing with him. Same with Set--I like your playstyle. My scumbuddies were pretty awesome too. I hope to play with you again.

Yeah, imp, you pretty much had it right too.

[neko2086]

@ Set--Yay! Which school are you at? I heard one of the CUNY French programs was being cut, which is extremely unfortunate. I'm not looking forward to entering the job market when I'm done, but that's not any time soon.