Open 300 - Mafia on Midol (Town Wins!)

[Punkin]

Hi bob.

Scumstorm alliance?

[Punkin]

Just hi, bob.

The second part was for the other three people who pre-inned in our living room.

[Punkin]

beautiful indeed Plum, I'm speechless

[Punkin]

Sudo, what did I do?
Chkflip, you seem to be correct, Crazy seems rather jumpy/defensive, pretty early in the game for that stuff.
I am intrigued by DH's game, Hi Papa Zito...

[Punkin]

Holy shit you guys are fast. I skimmed, then smoked, then refreshed and there are

four

six new posts. Woot!

Ima go read for real. Somebody who's paying attention tell me who the wagons are on?

I am miffed that nobody even acknowledged my call for a Scumstorm alliance. I thought you people were my friends.

Llama is town, BTW. Probably Plum too but a little time will tell me for sure. Back with more in a bit...

[Punkin]

You guys are really going to make me count the votes myself, aren't you?

[Punkin]

Someone at L-4 on page three with a serious wagon is something worth commenting on.

Are you high? Nobody was even close to L-4.

@Chk:

Please keep your vote in play.

VOTE: DemonHybrid He's on the list. More in a bit...

(I was ninja'd by that VC, lol.)

[Punkin]

That's what L-4 looks like. Anyway...

By the numbers, Chk is the scummiest by far but I feel what Llama's saying about page 4. DH, Sudo, and Crazy are on the list too, in that order. Sharp town.

Zorb, CES, and NS are worth mentioning but meh. Plum too, which is odd, because a skim had me calling her prob town.

Bob, PZ, Fate, and Llama are town.

These are my personal views. FYI, the wife and I don't see much of each other on certain days of the week. We've agreed to chat about the game at least once a day, and that we will focus on playing by consensus more as the game goes on.

[Punkin]

Why do you assume that PZ voted you for not participating in RVS?

Making a post designed to draw suspicion and then attacking people who suspect you for it isn't a trap. It's just bait.

[Punkin]

Oh and I keep meaning to ask this...

@Sudo:

Do you intend for your vote to be on us or not? If so, please do it properly. If not, quit playing around and vote somebody.

[Punkin]

@DH:

I didn't ask you what "we could probably just conclude," I asked what made you assume that? I don't think that's why PZ voted you.

@Fate:

How the hell is Zorb obv-town. I swear, he keeps most of that post on a clipboard.

@Sudo:

We considered the name Obi-Tu, but went for the van reference instead. We're thinking about playing this hydra as three-headed in the future: us and a variable hitchhiker.

[Punkin]

Remind me not to wagon people who are going to do

that

.

That

was annoying.

DH did drop some towntells in there. Nothing as compelling as Crazy is claiming. I don't think he was thinking clearly so making a "dick move" may be something he didn't think about in his desperation to keep the slot alive. This was interesting...

Troll slightly, because of his first post, but has recently been okay.

Zorb has made two posts. His first one, which DH "didn't like," and his second one, which was thirteen minutes later and consisted entirely of telling DH to go stuff himself. Then... nothing. So I guess DH finds not posting to be a towntell? Remember this if DH flips scum at some point, because Zorb looks bad in that case.

UNVOTE: DH
VOTE: Sudo_Nym

@Sudo:

Still comfortable with your RV, huh? You've done three things in this game: (1) lulz Cthulu (2) defend self (3) sling mud at the lead wagon candidate. Is this how you normally play as town?

@NS:

Please keep your vote in play. How many times am I going to have to say this to people?

I'm not explaining my townreads, Ythill style.

It was a rhetorical question.

[Punkin]

@NS:

Why the concern about looking shallow? Your vote now will provide info later. Loan it to a wagon, sheep someone you like, or even just RV again. Srsly.

@Sudo:

Now you too!?!

Newsflash... I got a NZ cop result on Not Voting, he's town. That wagon should crumble now.

[Punkin]

I don't agree with that.

I suppose I can buy that as your opinion, but it

does

make you wrong.

Vote: Punkin

Happy?

Sure. Except that part where you ignored my question. Again, why are you concerned about looking shallow?

[Punkin]

If only one of our heads lurk, will y'all lynch half of us?

Hrm... Thor makes my eyes glaze over. Gut says town but whatever. As much as I agree with Sudo being in the hotseat, failing to place the L-1 vote is hardly valid as a scumtell, and aggressively pursuing that stance could lean to looser claims. Also, I don't like boiling DH down to the subject of the TARP!, because it isn't that simple.

A lot of what remains on this page is people calling Fate a bully. Yeah. We all know Fate can be abrasive. Unless any more of you have thin enough skins to rage-quit over it, we can probably save the intervention for Forum 62. I have seen enough e-peens today.

This Sudo wagon seems to have run its course. Any more takers?

Mod: can we get a VC pretty please?

[Punkin]

Forgot something:

@Llama:

Mind explaining your SP read? I don't get it.

@bob:

What did I miss a vote or something? Seems like it's been stalled @ L-4 for half the day.

[Punkin]

Not in my world it isn't. At this point I'm just waiting for a vote count.

Any preference for who we do next?

[Punkin]

@Thor:

I didn't think that was the entirety of your points against Sudo. Rather, it was one of two places that I didn't like your stances. I already stated my problems with Sudo.

AGar seems oddly focused right now. Maybe he just feels weird because he hasn't recognized me? Keeping my eye on him fer sure.

Xine left some notes, including points against Llama and AGar and a cite demonstrating that Sudo and Thor are not scum together. I think it's even more clear that DH and Thor are not scum together, but I'm not really that interested in links before we have info. Xine also noted Fate's #214 as a scumslip, which is lulzy; she's never played with him, obv.

[Punkin]

Was that a vote count? I think it was.

UNVOTE: Sudo
VOTE: Crazy

[Punkin]

Damnit CES.

[Punkin]

Actually, you know what?

UNVOTE: Crazy
VOTE: chkflip

I was wondering myself whether I had good reasons to vote Crazy, other than he's got two votes on him and he's on my p5 list. So I looked at his iso and he hasn't been looking that bad lately. That first post is still

really

bothering me though...

@Crazy:

Did you really think Plum was a dude or were you messing around?

[Punkin]

Sifting around through stuff, noting that NS was all, "Don't tell me what to do," then did what I said anyway. I seem to remember him doing that as scum somewhere before. In any event, it's certainly scummy in general.

Also, where is Zorb? Kinda funny that he's got the fewest posts logged.

[Punkin]

No, because he was advocating lynch all lurkers.

[Punkin]

I've seen scum make intentional gender/identity mistakes early in D1 before, as distancing from a buddy. And I'm assuming it's used as fake distancing as well. However, I can't imagine doing that while also admitting game experience with her. It doesn't make sense either way, which is why it bothers me.

[Punkin]

ebworp:
HI Nacho, Welcome, glad to see you.
So, you posted a bunch of Quotes from Chk, and they all seem to be on the topic of his attacks on DH, other then OMGUS, what (if anything) makes these particular posts stand out to you? What do you think of the Sudo wagon?
opps sorry

[Punkin]

the game is zzzz

Xine

literally

fell asleep twice while reading it last night.

I owe this game some love.

[Punkin]

Okay... spent some time cuddling with the game and discussing between heads. We've opted to figure activity levels into our analysis and are caught up through current.

Top three scum, in order are: Nacho, Sudo, and NS. Three players are tied for fourth: Zorb, Plum, and Chk.

Bob, AGar, PZ, SP, Fate and Llama are town somewhere between lean and obv. The rest are at null.

The activity level here is abysmal, and some that

are

posting seem to think this game is about talking. It's about voting. Early vote movement = scum lynches.

UNVOTE: Chk
VOTE: Crazy

Mod: not to be a nag but could we please get at least one VC per day?

[Punkin]

- if I

was

town and thought DH was town, what

should

I have done in that scenario?

This is someone who assumes themselves to NOT be town
I stand by our vote
(though the original reason for the vote is in my "other head" right now)

BTW: Troll, Sudo, !!!!
we pre-inned together to play together, remember??? C'mon guys

[Punkin]

Punkin, if I'm not in your top 6 scum reads, then why did you just vote for me?

The short answer: in the early game, I use my vote for info gathering. I'm not going to explain in detail ATM because that would kinda defeat the purpose but, if the scumz let us live through D3, you will see the fruits of my behavior. You are not on our scumlist but you are far from obv-town. If you'd like me to list the points against you, I can, but I'd prefer to just play fast and loose for now.

This Crazy wagon is built on sand and full of horsecrap.

Do not like

You should get on it for a little while anyway. As should PZ. You know the method to my madness, Fate. The more likley you are to be culled early, the more helpful it is for you to sheep us.

FTR, we'd be fine switching our vote to NS if he had enough votes to be a viable alternative.

[Punkin]

UNVOTE: Crazy
VOTE: NobodySpecial

I don't sheep you, nor do I vote contributors D1.

1/2?

[Punkin]

I came in here to post a note about us being busy over the next 48 hours but I see some things that need comment, so...

Your vote on Sudo is what sticks out most - you didn't want to waste your vote, so you just threw it around at who looked scummy at a glance... what? If you didn't want to waste your vote, why didn't you take the time to give things more than a glance?

This view is very dissonant, considering AGar's meta habits for D1 voting. Revoking some of his towncred.

I'm not getting behind either of those terrible things. I'd rather lynch Socio or policy lynch Zorblag or Nikanor than hop on them.

NS is now a lurker wagon

And Zorb/Nik wouldn't be? Giving you a scumpoint for selective arguments. Now, please vote NS.

What was your opinion of Chk and his vote-related behavior at the time of this post, Punkin (Ythiiiiiill!).

The motivation for the post was simply that he unvoted rather than placing it elsewhere, which is antitown but common enough that I don't log scumpoints for it. To answer the broader question, I thought Chk's RV should have expired by the time he posted #36 and, when it finally did in #72, it was a throwaway. Both of which are scummy.

So why not vote Chk?

I explained in part (which you quoted). Also, DH had an actual wagon and was a much better place for my vote to gather info.

Also, I'm curious as to why I was worth a mention as slightly off/scummish looking at the time.

You seemed to understand that DH was claiming TARP! but you joined the wagon anyway, thereby buddying to the stronger of the two players. Don't think that I've forgotten what your scumplay is like, dear. Since then, you've also gotten points for lurking.

So yeah... anyway... we probably will not post much over the next 48 hours. Not V/LA but busy. I'm assuming Sudo and SP will be similar since they are supposed to be coming to our house tonight for tabletop gaming.

[Punkin]

Ythill has nothing to say about NS's latest post?

Was there something in it that should have inspired us to comment?

Now kindly vote Sudo so he actually admits there's a wagon on him and addresses it instead of trying to lurk out and hope a VI wagon happens to remove the pressure.

I have no interest in Sudo posting defenses.

"Here are my first 6 choices for scum! Vote: Random Guy"
What were you thinking?

"If I determine the enemy's disposition of force while I have no perceptible form, I can concentrate my forces while the enemy is fragmented... Thus the pinnacle of military deployment approaches the formless. If it is formless, then even the deepest spy cannot discern it or the wise make plans against it." ~Sun Tsu,

The Art of War

^
I will point out that applies equally for Sudo, amirite?

If you wanna call two votes a wagon. Stop leaning and jump aboard. Sudo's still on the radar and we can always switch back to him later.

more concise and well thought posts

This should be sigged by anyone who ICs.

Didn't notice anything during my absence that substantially changed reads. Will catch up our notes in a page or three and let you know of any swings.

[Punkin]

Damn, wrong account.

Mod, please delete that for me?

--------------

Interesting.

UNVOTE: NS
VOTE: Sudo_Nym

I guess you got your way after all, Thor.

Ninja'd: Hi SP.

[Punkin]

Do you still think Chk is scummy? Did you see what I just saw?

[Punkin]

<3

[Punkin]

No, the other thing.

Your last sentence does not compute.

[Punkin]

I get SP's logic, strangely. But it's bad in this case.

Assuming he means that Sudo is going to lead us to others. Disagree.

Pretty sure he was talking about Chk, not Sudo.

Voting dynamics suggest that Sudo is town, NS is scum, and there is 1-2 scum among Chk/Llama/AGar/Oman/CES. I need to look something up which will help me narrow this down.

Mod: VC pretty please?

[Punkin]

Voting dynamics suggest that Sudo is town, NS is scum, and there is 1-2 scum among Chk/

Llama

/AGar/Oman/

CES

Narrowed.

[Punkin]

Thanks, singer.

<3

UNVOTE: Sudo
VOTE: Nobody Special

It's like tennis.

Really? You can't follow a simple string of Sudo votes on your own?

I can follow the votes on my own, and have been. However, if I live through a couple of days, I will be using a mod iso to track voting dynamics. Therefore I wanted a snapshot of Sudo's L-2 wagon before moving elsewhere.

Your voting dynamics list is intriguing... could you go into the reasoning behind it at all?

Nacho-Sudo dilemma broke up and the votes stayed spread out until the NS wagon started getting big. It became clear from dialogue that Sudo is the natural alternative to NS. When I saw Chk (who was not on the original Sudo wagon) jump on, I switched my vote to increase the momentum. Also my inspiration for asking SP (who has stated Sudo-town, Chk-scum) if he saw what I did. Anyway, two more new Sudo voters got caught up in the momentum shift.

Of course this is all speculation without cardflips to back it up. FTR, I am not weighting this as a VCA conclusion but, rather, as simple tells.

[Punkin]

that was a stupid question

I noticed too and chuckled.

How is asking for VCs bad? Singer can say no or ignore me if she wants to.

[Punkin]

Blame accepted then.

[Punkin]

So... we have six days until deadline. Time to stop wagoning for info and work on the lynch. I'm going to catch my notes up today, then Xine and I will confer. Should have results when I get home from work tonight, maybe earlier if she feels like posting them.

The notes Xine left me last night go both ways on Plum and give Chk scumpoints.

[Punkin]

Thanks, but we'll do our own scumhunting.

[Punkin]

CES:

Considering Sudo's shtick, you just proved yourself to be Canadian.

I've finished catching up and tallying. There have been some changes. Current reads include everything Xine has noted but, like I said, I still intend to discuss things with her since 80% of the work so far has been mine. Anyway...

Scum (in order): chk, Sudo, NS, Nacho, Zorb-slot
Town: Cyber, AGar, PZ, SP, Thor Fate, CES, Llama

By the numbers, Sudo and NS are actually tied for second place. However, this is entirely due to the fact that we weighted lurking into our numbers and NS got more points than Sudo for lack of posting. Hence me listing Sudo higher than NS on the list. Also note that I seriously doubt that they are scum together. As usual for me in the early game, rankings are based on individual behavior with no consideration for the team as a whole.

Nacho has been improving his slot with every post he makes. So... either the slot is town brought down by DH's poor play or the slot is scum mitigated in the reads by Nacho's good play. Due to this, I'm less willing to lynch Nacho today than I normally would be for someone who is a solid fourth on the suspect list. I do intend to keep my eyes on him though.

UNVOTE: NS
VOTE: chkflip for now.

[Punkin]

Note: for those of you not on scuMobile, Xine and I have decided to use our "location" for game-related info since we've agreed to only play one game at a time. I just changed it from "rollin around."

[Punkin]

Perhaps.

Will be discussing things with Xine. Then will either push chk or vote with the larger wagon.

[Punkin]

I never got a chance to chat with Xine about the game. Maybe tomorrow.

[Punkin]

388: Why did you let Thor get his way then? Why not fight it? You know, give your own reads instead of follow Thor.

At the time, Sudo was (and still is) second on our suspect list. Moreover, I already explained the reason for the vote in #418. The comment to Thor was cheekiness.

This is worrisome, as she tends to be more passive as scum.

She's never been scum. If you're referencing f2f mafia, there are some factors you are overlooking.

TOLD YOU TROLL WAS TOWN.

Patience, padawan. Making a WoT catch up post is something I've seen scum do many times. I did give him townpoints for something in it, but I didn't bother reading the the whole PbPA and his question to me, at least, shows that he is not reading as deeply as he'd like it to seem. Meanwhile #447 seems like:

OMG I said I was on page nine, they're gonna catch me

. Most telling of all is Zorb's activity level. SP and Sudo can back me up on how many times we've heard Zorb, himself, state that he only lurks as scum.

Then again, there are better candidates.

Like chkflip. Those of you who would like to hang scum, especially those on my town list, should check out his iso.

By the numbers, chk is far scummier than Sudo

or

NS. Interesting, because the way we weighted the numbers for lurking gave NS maximum scumpoints, Sudo moderate scumpoints, and chk

maximum town points

; meaning that, by behavior alone, chk is even worse in comparison. We can talk about the specifics of those tells when I have a little more time (tonight or tomorrow).

[Punkin]

Hello, this head has been busy, I am now re-affirming my commitment to participate more in the thread.
I like our vote on Chk, he has been over defensive, and overcompensating , and has also twisted people's words so as to mis-rep them.

on to other stuff, SP, you got major scum points for this. claiming to have a scum meta on me, when no such thing exists=LIE!

Plum, I love that you said

Xine sounds just like herself.

this tells me you have done some meta research, and you got a town point for that

Speaking of meta, I've been meaning for a while to ask Agar, if you don't do meta, what's up with defending PZ based on meta? and yes, I read your disclaimer that it's not "meta" just a familiarity with his play style.... (aka meta!)

Oman...<3 @ U 2. We haven't yet had time to properly discuss the benefit of going with a Sudo vote , based on wagon size, (does size really matter?) But I am willing to consider it, he is high in scum points. he is nowhere near as scummy as Chk though, take a good look at him for me would you, I'd love to know your opinion on Chk-scum.

CES: I know it's not your habit to go into detail over your votes ect, but I have seen enough of your play to have realized that you are more often then not pretty spot on, If I ask you nice, would you give a bit of content on your thought process, pretty please...

[Punkin]

IM AROUND STILL I AM JUST VERY FUCKING BUSY WITH A LOT OF WORK DUE WEDNESDAY BUT AFTER THAT I WILL CATCH UP AND GET BACK INTO THE GAME PLEASE DO NOT LYNCH ME NOR OTHERWISE CAUSE ME TO COME TO HARM

I forgot to mention...preemptive defense much?

[Punkin]

It seems like there's not a lot of interest in chk. Don't know that I should clutter the thread with arguments seeing as how the two alternatives are both acceptable to us. I'll just say that what Xine cited were 3 of the 19 points we've noted against him. Nothing damning in itself but certainly suggestive as a group.

UNVOTE: chk
VOTE: Nobody Special

Because that's how I roll.

That was a serious question. If you're just wagoning for the fun of it, then why the heck do you back that up with a "Why is DH not dead yet?"

^^I'd like other opinions on this, plz.

I think it was a serious answer. If you're not familiar with CES, go look at his meta. The more concerning aspect of his #481 was him buddying up to me.

@Llama:

#493 relies too much on the "scum lurk, town doesn't" assumption. There are more than four players lurking, so the logic is obv-fail. Did you give your opinion about AGar's argument that "doing nothing" (which is most of what Sudo has done wrong) fails to further a scum wincon?

[Punkin]

Hey Lurkers! deadline is approaching, time to get in here and give some input.
I am realizing that the 3 lead candidates for lynch are, Sudo, who popped in to promise content, and we are still waiting for it..., NS, who was done with his "v/la" last night, and Chk, who has not posted since the 14th. hmmm...

Agar, I see your point about the distinction on "meta" uses. thanks for clarifying.

@Agar: So? I hydrad with my friend Kuzi and I thought he coasted as scum. Turned out, he coasted regardless of alignment. That cost me a townie death. (I shot him)

this is a perfect example of Agar's point about poorly used meta tells, methinks

Nacho: Do you still stand behind your read on Chk?

[Punkin]

Hito+sotty? Hellzya! Interested in your opinion of chk.

This slot is going to be pretty light over the next couple of days. For those of you who do not know me personally: our good friend/love Dan! will be arriving tonight and we haven't seen her in almost two years. I'll check in occasionally but will not be doing any heavy work in this thread, same for our other head.

We're fine with Sudo being pushed to claim. Willing to hang back with the hammer to facilitate that.

[Punkin]

Checking in. Waiting with a hammer.

Sudo, claim in your next post or die.

Noting that Sudo is not due for a prod for another 3 hours. Then could abuse the prod rules to lurk until ~4 hours before deadline.

[Punkin]

Papa, posts like these^ confuse me, is that some sort of veiled accusation of crazy?
Socio, does one vote really define a "wagon?"
VOTE: NobodySpecial
very cute AtE, btw

[Punkin]

Sorry, this head has been busy in [redacted]. Will give this game some love in a day or two.

NS lynch would be good, not only because he's got a high likelihood of being scum, but also because getting the flip of Sudo's counterwagon will be nice for VCA.

[Punkin]

VOTE: chkflip As a marker.

VCA and scum-iso sometime in the next 48 hours.

No quicklynching today, please.

[Punkin]

@SP:

Quote or link to coaching please? Meta still says Llama is town.

General thoughts were basically expressed: I didn't see why Sudo over NS.

...

So I'm guessing your theory is that I bussed my partner two days in a row y/n?

Credit seeking noted.

Working on VCA today.

[Punkin]

VCA incoming. As usual except Xine and I sat down to do the analysis together. Posting raw, will sum up conclusions eventually.

AGar (1): Zorblag

DemonHybrid

(4): Papa Zito, Crazy,

Fate

, Plum
Papa Zito (1):

DemonHybrid

Sudo_Nym

(2): LlamaFluff, Cyberbob
Plum (1):

Nobody Special

chkflip (1): SocioPath
Crazy (2): Cogito Ergo Sum, Nikanor

Not voting (6):

Punkin

, AGar, Oman,

Sudo_Nym

, Thor665, chkflip

Scum are spread out here. No more than one among PZ/Crazy/Plum. Same with Llama/Cyber and CES/TS. At least one, maybe two among AGar/Oman/Thor/Chk.

Punkin

(1):

Sudo_Nym

AGar (1): Zorblag

DemonHybrid

(7): Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum,

Punkin

, Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, chkflip
SocioPath (1):

DemonHybrid

Sudo_Nym

(4): LlamaFluff, Cyberbob, Crazy, Thor665
Plum (1):

Nobody Special

Crazy (1): Nikanor

Not voting (2): AGar, Oman

Town-town dilemma with only the four lurkers not involved. Lack of interest in the situation on us corroborates scum involvement in the dilemma. No more than one scum among Ran/TS/AGar/Oman; maybe none. At least one (probably two) among PZ/Plum/CES/SP/Chk. At least one among Llama/Cyber/Crazy/Thor. Crazy gets townpoints for the timing of his jump off DH.

Punkin

(1):

Nobody Special

AGar (1): Zorblag

Nachomamma8

(4): Plum, SocioPath, chkflip,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(5): LlamaFluff, Cyberbob, Thor665,

Fate

, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (5): Nikanor, AGar, Oman,

Punkin

, chkflip

Nobody Special

(2): Crazy, Papa Zito

Not voting (0):

Very interesting VC. Nacho's replacement means the slot is no longer an easy mislynch. As the wagon fell apart, both CES and chk placed late votes on competitors. At least one is scum, decent chance of both. Townie brownies for Zito who moved to scum. Townpoints for Crazy, as voters seemed ambivalent between he and Sudo. AGar and Oman popped out of the Not Voting list to put Crazy ahead of NS, scumpoints for both.

Second time Crazy has unvoted during the buildup of a wagon. To quote our conversation...

Ythill: Is this more evidence of town motivation or a pattern of not wanting to be involved in lynch wagons?
Xine: Well... it's definitely not nothing.

AGar (2): Zorblag, LlamaFluff

Nachomamma8

(2): SocioPath,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(3): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip
chkflip (3):

Nachomamma8

, Plum,

Nobody Special

Crazy (2): Nikanor, Oman

Nobody Special

(6): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Punkin

,

Fate

, Cogito Ergo Sum, AGar

Not voting (0):

We should entitle this one

Chkflip is Scum

. Of the two obvscum above (CES + chk), he's the one who moved from the less-popular to the most-popular mislynch wagon as NS gained momentum. More important is NS' own vote, which moved from useless to a defensive wagoning position. Question is, why was it not placed on Sudo? The only reasonable answers are (1) it is distancing inspired by impending doom and therefore chk is scum or (2) there was already scum on the Sudo wagon. This all boils down to at least one scum among Cyber/Thor/chk with the latter being more likely.

Also, dissenter wagons are spread out versus NS, which tells me no more than two scum among Crazy/PZ/CES/AGar; maybe only one. This also tells us that there is no more than one scum each among Ran/Llama, same with TS/Oman, and Plum gains town cred.

AGar (1): Zorblag

Nachomamma8

(2): SocioPath,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(8): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip,

Punkin

, LlamaFluff, AGar, Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (2):

Nachomamma8

,

Nobody Special

Crazy (1): Nikanor

Nobody Special

(4): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum

Not voting (0):

This was my momentum-testing vote and it worked like a charm. Coming out of the split-dissenter situation, four people voted Sudo and parked until the end of the day. At least one scum (probably two) among Llama/AGar/Oman/CES. The least likely pairing is AGar/CES because they moved as a bloc, however, they are the most likley to contain scum. Decent chance that one busser stayed parked (one among Crazy/PZ/Plum).

Nachomamma8

(3): SocioPath,

Sudo_Nym

, Ranmaru

Sudo_Nym

(7): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip, LlamaFluff, AGar, Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (2):

Nobody Special

,

Punkin

Nikanor (1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (1): Nikanor

Nobody Special

(4): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum

Not voting (0):

Not much to note here, except as a point of comparison for the next two VCs. Ran pointlessly added pressure to the Nacho wagon which could go either way at this juncture, but see below.

Nachomamma8

(2): SocioPath,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(7): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip, LlamaFluff, AGar, Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (1):

Nobody Special

Cogito Ergo Sum (1): Ranmaru
Twilight Sparkle (1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (1): Twighlight Sparkle

Nobody Special

(5): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum,

Punkin

Not voting (0):

We added pressure to the NS wagon and there was very little movement in response. Tells me scum was already entrenched on Sudo (see below). Ran looks like Goldilocks trying to find the right bed; scumpoints.

Nachomamma8

(1):

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(10): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip, LlamaFluff, AGar, Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum, Ranmaru, SocioPath,

Fate

chkflip (1):

Nobody Special

Twilight Sparkle (1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (1): Twighlight Sparkle

Nobody Special

(4): Crazy, Papa Zito, Plum,

Punkin

Not voting (0):

Town was sealed into this and pulling it off was almost a technicality for scum. Our slot was willing to hammer and so was Fate, which means decent chance of one scum among Ran/SP with the former more likely than the latter. Also note that Sudo was "just right" for Ranilocks.

SocioPath (1): LlamaFluff

Nobody Special

(5): Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, Papa Zito, Twilight Sparkle,

Punkin

Not voting (18):

Punkin

, Cyberbob, AGar,

Nachomamma8

, Oman, Papa Zito, SocioPath, Ranmaru, Thor665, Plum, chkflip, Cogito Ergo Sum, Llamafluff, Twilight Sparkle, Crazy,

Nobody Special

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things does not belong... Llama's vote is not suspicious in itself but look at the next count.

Scum either planned to bus NS in their QT or came in here hoping for the best. If its the former, there's one or two on the wagon already. If it's the latter, there are at least two lurking.

Papa Zito (1): Thor665
SocioPath (2): chkflip,

Nobody Special

Nobody Special

(8): Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, Papa Zito, Twilight Sparkle,

Punkin

, AGar, Cyberbob, LlamaFluff

Not voting (5):

Nachomamma8

, Oman, Ranmaru, Plum, Crazy

Rebellious Llama saw the light @ L-2. Scumpoints + suggests that they were hoping for the best (see above). Later votes (AGar/Cyber/Llama) gain scumpoints for milking the bus for a second advantage: the quick day.

At least one scum among dissenters Thor/chk, more likely chk because his vote was on another contender rather than thrown away. Townie brownies for SP.

Papa Zito (1): Thor665
SocioPath (1): chkflip

Nobody Special

(9): Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, Papa Zito, Twilight Sparkle,

Punkin

, AGar, Cyberbob, LlamaFluff,

Nobody Special

Not voting (5):

Nachomamma8

, Oman, Ranmaru, Plum, Crazy

Self-hammer usually indicates heavy scum involvement because otherwise, why not let a buddy get cred? However, this is an interesting case because it is

the third time

I have done VCA wherein NS self-hammered as scum (FFS). First time, I was absolutely right and there were lots of scum on. Second time he tried to WIFOM me, hammering with nobody bussing, and I caught him by expecting his ploy. This time? Xine thinks sparse (1-2) scum on; I think we're back to natural, so 2 buddies on. THis boils down to: no more than 2 among Thor/chk/Oman/Ran/Plum/Crazy; no more than two among CES/SP/PZ/TS/AGar/Cyber/Llama.

[Punkin]

Haven't had much time for this game because [redacted] is in endgame. Sorry neither of us have gotten to that NS reread yet.

I went through the VCA conclusions. Based solely on that analysis, Chk is scummiest, CES is second, AGar and Llama are tied for third. Weighting these reads into our previous views gives us the following lists:

Scum (in order): chk, Ran, Oman, TS.
Null: AGar, CES, Crazy.
Town: Cyber, PZ, SP, Thor, Llama.

Of course we still have some work to do so don't get too attached. I haven't even reread D2 yet, FFS.

[Punkin]

^ goodposting

Chkflip was the scummiest D1

and

scummiest from the VCA. We're not done poking around yet but I don't see us preferring any other lynch today.

@Llama:

Hop aboard, please.

[Punkin]

Hmm...Agar, I don't like that smiley, but I have mislynched townies for such things before... still, I'll look closely at him
I finished my rough notes on NS ISO, left them out for Yhill to look at. Initial impressions, He managed to avoid talking to or about most of the players in this game, of the interactions he had, I see possible distancing Crazy/ CHK/ Ran/CES/SP
Saw buddying to Plum/Cyber/Thor
I think there is one scum in each of those groupings, and one in the not mentioned list too.

[Punkin]

Meh. I don't buy Plum's argument (or bob's) but half of the wagoneers are prob-town and none of them are on the suspect list so...

UNVOTE: chk
VOTE: AGar Consider this a loaner.

Going to try and read my wife's

tiny handwriting

and take my own look at the NS iso.

[Punkin]

(Sorry this took so long, I had to go pick up Dan!.)

NS plays a basic scum game and he expects to die early.

He needled Crazy, Thor, and PZ in the same way he needled our slot and Fate. Brownies for all three. Plum was the only one he explicitly called town. She probably is.

The post where he voted chk is intriguing. He made his most serious attack against now-confirmed town. Followed that with a weak attack against two players. Right there I start thinking there's a buddy in the mix. Crazy was one of the people he needled, suggesting chk-scum. Then he went on to post this...

I am happier with the chkflp wagon than the Sudo wagon.

...lumping chk with another townie among his suspects. I doubt NS attacked four townies in this post. There is very likely one scum among

Nacho

/Crazy/chkflip/

Sudo

and it is more likely chkflip.

In NS' gambit post, he discredited Ran, CES, Cyber, and

Fate

. Mention of bob was very obvious distancing and therefore fake. Townpoints for bob. Also suggests one scum among Ran/CES. He buddied to Plum, Crazy, and

Sudo

. I'm tempted to say all town, especially since the two unconfirmed got brownies earlier. If one is scum it's Crazy.

Ohey, he needled Llama too. He also seemed concerned about Llama's suspicions. Town.

SP vote looks like distancing, which disagrees with the VCA. Maybe NS has developed some game and faked it while he was going down? Food for thought.

Cocky response to Llama in #592 feels very natural. Probably scum-->town.

It seems like NS mostly ignored his buddies. This amounts to town points for Plum, Llama, and Crazy, whom he interacted with most. It nets scumpoints for AGar, Oman, and TS, whom he didn't mention. Agreeing with my wife that there is (at least) one scum among the unmentioned.

[Punkin]

Something else I noticed when I was checking the context for that iso read...

Check out the first three posts of page 15. Thor had made a post about the non-Sudo wagons that conveniently neglected NS. CES caught it and put Thor on the spot. He overreacted and cited an invalid reason for not being interested. This was immediately pointed out as invalid. Thor agreed in his next post, but he didn't move his vote.

Thor went on to lean towards a NS vote, and took a jab at him which is odd. Why would Thor do these things if he is town who doesn't suspect NS? Why not do more if he is town who does?

Once again, on D2, Thor pooh-poohed the NS wagon without good reason and then threw a vote out into left field like nothing was happening. Interestingly, that vote was on PZ, who was on the NS wagon, but the reasoning didn't have anything to do with PZ being on that wagon. Some serious cog dis there.

Altogether, Thor's behavior towards NS looks like soft distancing during repeated attempts to protect him.

[Punkin]

This was my feeling about the NS hammer. I haven't played with him that much to know he does this a lot as scum. What was the game he did it to WIFOM you?

It's easier to find the link if I log in under my main. Will post it in a minute.

I was going to place my vote on Agar but I don't want another quick day as my other heads still aren't caught up.

You can have my seat if you like.

UNVOTE: AGar
VOTE: chkflip

1. An "overreaction"
2. "Convenient" neglect of NS.
3. A reason I should have moved my vote.

1. OMG NS is @ L-2! The sort of frantic miscount I most often see from townies when the wagon is on themselves.
   
2. #349 cites a lack of good alternatives as your reason for parking on Sudo, mentions the "big wagons" by name and doesn't mention NS. (looking back at the VC I guess you did elude to his wagon, so meh)
   
3. Your reason for not moving was largely the lack of acceptable alternatives and was proven false.

So either I'm scummy for attacking him or I'm scummy for not attacking him enough because each and every attack has to be full bore on or nothing at all?

You are scummy for attacking him in a way that does not further a town wincon but which furthers a scum wincon, especially now that we know that he was scum.

Thor wrote:

<-- please answer, this is a question.

<-- This is my answer.

Still it got me looking over that whole interaction and I agree with Plum that AGar comes out of that wagon looking horrible with how quickly he shifted from NS to Sudo. Oman is another poor looking vote.

Two names from the NS-ignored-them list. Hmmm... But yeah, Cyberbob is town.

You noting the same thing twice or something?

The thing I pointed out with the Ranilocks (Goldimaru?) reference only got you one black mark. Bombast aside, it refers to your fickle vote finally settling on the lead mislynch. Stated more than once because the pattern appeared across multiple VCs.

[Punkin]

@TS:

Here's a link to the relevant VCA from that game. Scroll down to the last VC. Fate, who is the only unconfirmed scum player on the wagon, was also the only scum. NS

did not

give his second buddy (Andrius) the opportunity to hammer for cred.

Overall, that game would be good for meta homework because it included Fate, NS, AGar, and myself.

[Punkin]

A few quick thoughts before I head off to bed:

*twitch*[/quote]...?

No mention of my killer smiley tell? I'm on a winner there, I'm telling you.

Between the first time you brought it up, and this post, 3 people mentioned it... how did you not notice that?
Thor: I like where our vote is right now, He's still my #1 suspect.
looking forward to content from many players right now

[Punkin]

@Thor:

To answer your actual question, we had AGar at null when I voted him. Our view of him hasn't improved, in fact it's gotten a little worse.

Why wait for a vote count to unvote someone you think is town and vote for someone you think is scum?

We didn't think Sudo was town, but I think that's beside the point you're making. The reason I called for a VC is because our vote lead that charge against Sudo and I wanted to get a snapshot before any of the sheep followed me off.

singer didn't count Plum's vote for NobodySpecial. Edit those in your analysis.

You trying to get me modkilled? (Thanks for pointing this out. Mind telling me which count, so I don't have to skim the thread for the vote?)

uuuuhhhhhhhhh what?

Not sure what you're asking. I said exactly what I meant.

Townie brownies for TS and Crazy.

Punkin: How do you choose who is scummiest in VCA?

After posting the raw analysis, I grab a pen and paper, tallying up town and scum points. Later in the game, I also adjust based on possible (and ruled out) connections. What is your reason for asking this? I figure you (Hito) are familiar with my methods by now.

@Ythill... Its not time to let pressure up yet

I gave someone else my spot. The pressure is exactly the same, but with more info in the voting record. FWIW, I'll take a look through AGar's iso sometime soon. Hoto made a pretty good point about his switch to Sudo.

Was talking specifically to you.

Skim much?

[Punkin]

I figured the NS reread stuff and a page of Xine notes into our overall reads.

Scum (in order): Chk, Ran, AGar, Oman.
Town: bob, PZ, SP, Plum, Llama, Crazy.

UNVOTE: chkflip
VOTE: LlamaFluff

Those of you who are still on the Not Voting list should be ashamed of yourselves.

[Punkin]

(Ninja'd by TS. Will read in a sec.)

Uhhh what?

No really.. what the shit is that?

I kno, rite? You're another one of those players who should be familiar with my methods.

More townpoints for Crazy. Sheesh.

DH/Nacho getting nightkilled despite being a claimed townie is noteworthy. Not entirely implausible that this was a mistake on the scum's part, which would point to scum that isn't paying too much attention.

Except there's not a trio on this list that would have missed that. This inspired me to skim Nacho's iso. He was suspicious of Ran, chk, and AGar, all three of whom are scummy on their own. Intriguing.

TBH, I'm more interested in Punkin right now. It was slightly disturbing when P said Llama was scummy from their VCA and still had Llama in the town slot...

We're using a numerical rating system that combines ongoing behavioral tells, VCA, and activity level. If we live long enough, it'll include other factors as well. Point being, Llama was townie in pretty much all areas

except

the VCA (and even in that he was only tied for third). Overall, Llama is still town. Even moreso after the NS iso.

...but now a vote on what they think is a town player?

You've shown your hand. Can you explain how that vote benefits scum?

@Llama:

You're paying attention right?

@CES & Oman:

Place a vote please.

[Punkin]

(Sorry, got distracted irl.)

Okay so you are gaming your own analysis but not to make yourself look good.

Yup. If you think about it, gaming the analysis to make us look good wouldn't work unless someone else is also doing Yth-style VCA.

Thanks for citing those VCs.

Here, there are more people alive

This factor is probably more important than you realize when considering the differences between this game and Big Love. Feel free to check my meta for more accurate comparisons of early game VCA.

I'm just trying to get inside the process a little more.

I'll go into more detail then. I look over the raw VCA and tally points. Being included in a group that contains one scum earns one point, if two scum (or a very small group containing one) then its worth two points. Things that indicate individual scumminess or townieness earn scum/town points respectively. Town points are subtracted from scumpoints, giving me the final rankings for the VCA. In this case, chk's final tally was 12, CES had 9, AGar/Llama each had 6, etc.

The groups that contain "no more than one scum" do not earn points for those included but, later in the game, can be narrowed down to rule out particular groupings. Basically, I am not saying that those people are scummy but, rather, that they are less likely to be scum together.

Are you?

Read this and this and then answer my question. Jury's still out on Oman,

if you know what I'm talking about.

Tell you what, I'll put AGar @ L-2 as soon as the Not Voting list is empty.

Don't underestimate people's ability to make mistakes.

Did I just name your buddies?

[Punkin]

UNVOTE: Llama
VOTE: AGar L-2

I know patience is supposedly a virtue and all that but...

...if we arent lynching AGar, im actually wanting to move the game in an entirely new direction.

Which direction would that be. I think a wagon on CES would be informative, and there seems to be a fair amount of support for it.

[Punkin]

So Chk is scum if you are wrong about Agar?

This doesn't sit right with me. Do you know something we don't?

[Punkin]

Daykill Oman

That's for you Papa...

[Punkin]

ZOMG! Xine has a daykill!

I don't get the point of voting for a noted townread on Day 3.

Good. I don't want you to get the point since you're scum.

Oman wagon before CES tbqh.

Also Ranmaru needs to stop overasking questions and start posting.

We're pretty much on the same page for alignment reads, but I still think a wagon on CES would be more

informative

which is what I said, specifically because he's still hovering at null for us.

@Llama:

If you are that confidant, I don't see the point of keeping it secret.

[Punkin]

@Ran:

Not explaining things is scummy? I don't buy it, and you falling back on it seems like lazy hunting.

It seems like NS mostly ignored his buddies.

What brought you to this conclusion?

The amount of town-reads I got on people from his iso.

I usually get mopey if I'm really wrong in a read.

Maybe just inconvenient wording but this sounds a lot like someone who is

trying

to play to his meta.

So Chk is scum if you are wrong about Agar?

This doesn't sit right with me. Do you know something we don't?

No. Llama said that Chk is town if he is right about his reads. Learn to read.

One does not necessarily follow the other (learn to reason). More importantly, why are you trying to determine this? What is your read on AGar?

There were some mild exchanges early where it seemed Thor had AGar in a mildy negative light but then seemed very willing to challenge me when I moved to an AGar vote on the first day.

What was your opinion of #659?

@Crazy:

You're abandoning logic in #781. Neither of those points rely on a scum-scum connection.

[Punkin]

VOTE: Thor

AGar iso and all that jazz incoming over the next couple days.

[Punkin]

Llama did you crumb? I was wrong on Agar... ;-;

I also agree with a Thor lynch.

Vote: Thor

I agree with Plum, this rubs me all kinds of wrong ways...

FOS Ranmaru

Thor, I also did not catch any proof on PZ...?

[Punkin]

hmmm, you make a really good point bob,
the way folks have been quick hammering, I don't even like him at L-2 this early

unvote

VOTE: Ranmaru

[Punkin]

Llama, out of curiosity, why did you claim? I thought it was pretty obvious by the end of yesterday.

I'd rather lynch Thor than Ran at the moment but, then again, we're not lynching anyone until I give this thread some love, so I guess there's no reason to play vote-tennis with my wife.

[Punkin]

It's very strange to color-code the VCA and then have to wait to do the actual analysis together. Trying that patience thing again...

Is this your subtle way of telling me you'd like me to do another votecount?

[Punkin]

@Mod:

No, I was bitching about needing to wait for Xine.

People voting Ran or Thor should explain why one over the other please.

@Llama:

I've been running through the various scenarios in my head and I actually don't see the harm in outing your innocents. Since you have two, you'll be able to stay one investigation ahead of the scumz even if they decide to start killing them off, plus you'd be tempting them to forgo doc hunting. Also, one of them is already obvious. On the up-side, we know there is no GF and it's pretty clear that your claim is honest: having two more confirmed green will help us quite a bit. With your investigations and my analysis, we might be able to wrap this game up with two lynches.

@PZ:

I know you're opposed to the above. Is your stance based entirely on general strategy or do you have some reason specific to this situation?

[Punkin]

I disagree with Crazy's opinion on whether or not Llama claims his innocents. It seems that more information will help us scum-hunt more then it will hinder the scum to not know.For Example, our heads have a date for Sunday (the next time we see each other not in passing) to do a new VCA, and that information would really help when we do it.

Ranmaru, Why did you claim early?
UNVOTE:

Not Ok with a quick hammer, for a few reasons, like...I'd really like to hear from Oman today

[Punkin]

Oh Sorry, meant to
VOTE: Thor
(don't worry honey, I'll play tennis with myself)

[Punkin]

ZOMG the scumz is gonna kill our townies!

I think y'all missed an important point of my argument. Anyone with two brain cells and an iso button

already knows

who the N1 investigation was. Do you really expect me to talk around it when I'm analyzing the game?

Unless I hear some compelling argument why I should refrain, I plan on greening the "mystery" person's name in my VCA. If Llama wants to start playing his cards closer to his chest now that he's claimed, I guess there's nothing we can do about that, but it seems like a bunch of people falling back on "the right thing to do" without any real reason, and thereby limiting the information we have to work with.

Anyway... Ima go read AGar...

[Punkin]

AGar made aggressive attacks against

Nacho

, Crazy,

NS

and, to a lesser extent,

Sudo

and

SP

. Attacks on Crazy differed from those on the known buddy in that they continued even when the target was under no pressure elsewhere. Major brownies for Crazy. AGar voted all of these players except one confirmed town and didn't vote outside this list. AGar was playing a tight game with very little bussing.

AGar jabbed 11/17 players who were not him. I think the best information to be gained here is the list of people he didn't attack at all: Oman, Ran, Plum, TS, and

Fate

. In fact, the only one of these he mentioned

at all

was Oman, with whom he agreed about a minor point. I'm betting at least one of AGar's buddies is in this list. His interactions with CES were odd in that AGar made one deliberate jab against the slot but otherwise ignored it; scumpoints.

AGar buddied to PZ,

Sudo

, and Llama: brownies to the unconfirmed (as if they need them). He seemed honestly concerned about questioning from Thor, Llama, Cyber, and our slot; more brownies.

AGar called

SP

,

Sudo

, chk, THor, and PZ null; if both buddies aren't in the not-mentioned list, the other one is here.

AGar linked Crazy to both

Nacho

and

NS

. He linked chk to

NS

and, in a less direct way, to himself and

SP

. If the scum knew NS was going under the bus, or even if AGar individually realized that he was during D1, then I'd expect those linked to him to be town across the board. Like I said, tight game, little bussing. Brownies for Crazy and chk.

AGar's views on PZ and chk seemed to shift all over the board, but never to the extreme on either. Not sure what this means except that they are probably of the same alignment. Chk was the only person he credited with a good attack, against town BTW, which seems to indicate chk-town.

[Punkin]

Cyberbob, PZ, Llama, and Crazy are pretty much Yth-confirmed town at this point.

Llama's N1 clear is in the remaining seven and, if he's worth his wordcount, his N3 result is as well. Lynch pool of 5 with two scum in it three days before LYLO is workable without a protected cop. This game is in the bag.

By the numbers, scummiest in order are Chk, Ran, Oman. But... yeah.

I'm fine with our vote where it is.

[Punkin]

Awesome. So...

Two scum among chk/Ran/Thor/Plum/CES. At this point I'm thinking top three should be lynches, Plum/CES/myself should be investigated. Of course don't agree to that explicitly or whatever, just giving my opinion. If we do all that and we haven't won the game, I guess lynch bob but I'm pretty sure he's town.

VCA will be posted tomorrow, which is the soonest Xine and I will have time to do it together.

[Punkin]

How do you guys deal with ninja's?

Lynch them.

To be clear on the lynch-pool...

Chk is scummiest individually but is only connected to one dead scum. Ran is second scummiest individually and connected to both dead scum. Thor is null behaviorally but connected to both dead scum in a way that is more compelling than Ran. We have Plum and CES at null and are having trouble reading both due to lite activity, which is why I want their alignments determined.

VCA should help prioritize all of this.

Also, there is no way in hell we are lynching PZ.

[Punkin]

@Ran:

Pressuring and asking questions isn't my style, which you'd realize if you were trying to figure out our alignment instead of just discrediting us. I've already given our most recent suspect list and I see no reason to re-explain my votes to one of the people on it. My reasoning has been transparent. I didn't follow up on the request for CES-content because it is a pointless endeavor that was initiated by our other head.

I haven't failed to notice that you keep voting outside the lynch pool. Way to waste our time. Your "case" on bob is 98% IIoA that could have been summarized as, "he's not scumhunting to my satisfaction."

[Punkin]

Well then, I've got some good news for you...

Here's the new VCA, raw version. It may help to read it along side yesterday's because we've shorthanded some of the expanded conclusions. Xine and I discussed Llama's claim at length and neither of us believes he is faking. However, old habits die hard and so he and his innocents got a different shade of green than those players confirmed to us by the mod.

AGar

(1): Zorblag

DemonHybrid

(4): Papa Zito, Crazy,

Fate

, Plum
Papa Zito (1):

DemonHybrid

Sudo_Nym

(2):

LlamaFluff

, Cyberbob
Plum (1):

Nobody Special

chkflip (1):

SocioPath

Crazy (2): Cogito Ergo Sum,

Nikanor

Not voting (6):

Punkin

,

AGar

,

Oman

,

Sudo_Nym

, Thor665, chkflip

DH starts out as all town and doesn't have staying power? Not likely. One scum among PZ/Crazy/Plum. THor and chk are not scum together.

Punkin

(1):

Sudo_Nym

AGar

(1): Zorblag

DemonHybrid

(7): Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum,

Punkin

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

SocioPath

, chkflip

SocioPath

(1):

DemonHybrid

Sudo_Nym

(4):

LlamaFluff

, Cyberbob, Crazy, Thor665
Plum (1):

Nobody Special

Crazy (1):

Nikanor

Not voting (2):

AGar

,

Oman

AGar's flip really helps with this one. Major brownies for Ran. Scumteam is one of PZ/Plum/CES/chk + one of bob/Crazy/Thor.

Punkin

(1):

Nobody Special

AGar

(1): Zorblag

Nachomamma8

(4): Plum,

SocioPath

, chkflip,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(5):

LlamaFluff

, Cyberbob, Thor665,

Fate

, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (5):

Nikanor

,

AGar

,

Oman

,

Punkin

, chkflip

Nobody Special

(2): Crazy, Papa Zito

Not voting (0):

Not much new here. Flips simply reaffirm scumpoints for CES/chk and brownies for Crazy. PZ left the crumbling replacement wagon to park at second on NS for the rest of the day; looks like someone who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and decided to play it safe.

AGar

(2): Zorblag,

LlamaFluff

Nachomamma8

(2):

SocioPath

,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(3): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip
chkflip (3):

Nachomamma8

, Plum,

Nobody Special

Crazy (2):

Nikanor

,

Oman

Nobody Special

(6): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Punkin

,

Fate

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

AGar

Not voting (0):

This VC continues to be awesome. Pressure was building on two scum slots and Sudo was clearly the mislynch du jour. Chk gets one billion scumpoints and the context should start showing a scum flow toward Sudo with a desire to end the day. AGar's defensive knee-jerk was to distance on the other big scumwagon. This is his goon-not-RB mentality showing through but also suggests he was the only scum on NS at that point: brownies for Crazy/PZ/CES. Bonus brownie for CES because bussing back-to-back is less likely.

The question then becomes, if Crazy/PZ/CES = town, where is the second scumbag? Cyber/Thor makes little sense because otherwise how did they manage the turnaround? Plum doesn't makes sense for the same reasons CES + AGar doesn't make sense. Zorb's vote wouldn't make him a likely candidate either except he was only there because of his meta-wide alphabetical lurker thing, which doesn't leave him a choice.

Most likley scumteam by this count is Ran + chk.

AGar

(1): Zorblag

Nachomamma8

(2):

SocioPath

,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(8): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip,

Punkin

,

LlamaFluff

,

AGar

,

Oman

, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (2):

Nachomamma8

,

Nobody Special

Crazy (1):

Nikanor

Nobody Special

(4): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum

Not voting (0):

CES gets major scumpoints here. If one buddy parked on NS, it was Plum. Ran threw away his vote like nothing was going on. There is

at least

one scum among these three, maybe both.

Xine has pointed out that parkers from earlier counts (PZ/chk/Thor) may be skewing the logic here. Obv, we will deal with those caveats while formulating our conclusions.

Nachomamma8

(2):

SocioPath

,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(7): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip,

LlamaFluff

,

AGar

,

Oman

, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (1):

Nobody Special

Cogito Ergo Sum (1): Ranmaru

Twilight Sparkle

(1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (1):

Twilight Sparkle

Nobody Special

(5): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum,

Punkin

Not voting (0):

Ran throwing his vote away again. Interesting that he is the only unconfirmed dissenter and the only one to move during this count, and yet is still acting like there is no such thing as a Sudo-NS dilemma. Really not liking the behavior here; we should read the context for this. At least one scum is entrenched, probably on Sudo.

Nachomamma8

(1):

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(10): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip,

LlamaFluff

,

AGar

,

Oman

, Cogito Ergo Sum, Ranmaru,

SocioPath

,

Fate

chkflip (1):

Nobody Special

Twilight Sparkle

(1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (1):

Twilight Sparkle

Nobody Special

(4): Crazy, Papa Zito, Plum,

Punkin

Not voting (0):

Obv, scum is 100% on wagons here. We were discussing the possible placement of both unconfirmed scum on Sudo and, by conventional wisdom, the most likely would be one of CES/Ran + one of Thor/chk. However, Ran's strange Goldilocks behavior suddenly makes sense when you think about him replacing in to have to choose between voting a buddy and jumping on the only mislynch option when two buddies are already on late. CES + Ran scumteam explains this perfectly.

SocioPath

(1):

LlamaFluff

Nobody Special

(5): Cogito Ergo Sum,

SocioPath

, Papa Zito,

Twilight Sparkle

,

Punkin

Not voting (18):

Punkin

, Cyberbob,

AGar

,

Nachomamma8

,

Oman

, Papa Zito,

SocioPath

, Ranmaru, Thor665, Plum, chkflip, Cogito Ergo Sum,

LlamaFluff

,

Twilight Sparkle

, Crazy,

Nobody Special

I find it hard to believe there is not at least one scum on NS at this point. Scumpoints for CES/PZ. The former picked Sudo over NS yesterday.

Papa Zito (1): Thor665

SocioPath

(2): chkflip,

Nobody Special

Nobody Special

(8): Cogito Ergo Sum,

SocioPath

, Papa Zito,

Twilight Sparkle

,

Punkin

,

AGar

, Cyberbob,

LlamaFluff

Not voting (5):

Nachomamma8

,

Oman

, Ranmaru, Plum, Crazy

Scumpoints for Thor/chk for the obvious reason. Which of them is more likely depends on how NS was playing the game. Was his SP vote defense (aka jump on the all-town situation) or WIFOM-for-Yth (aka jump up behind a buddy to game the analysis). Looming self-hammer suggests the latter.

Papa Zito (1): Thor665

SocioPath

(1): chkflip

Nobody Special

(9): Cogito Ergo Sum,

SocioPath

, Papa Zito,

Twilight Sparkle

,

Punkin

,

AGar

, Cyberbob,

LlamaFluff

,

Nobody Special

Not voting (5):

Nachomamma8

,

Oman

, Ranmaru, Plum, Crazy

I was about to say there's not much information here but Xine caught something good. AGar was pushing for a quick day, as was NS, as was Llama due to his role. Mixed motivations means the rest of the scum were probably hanging back. This amounts to townpoints for bob, scumpoints for Ran/Plum/Crazy.

AGar

(5): Crazy, Cyberbob, Plum,

LlamaFluff

,

Twilight Sparkle

chkflip (2): Thor665,

Punkin

Cogito Ergo Sum (1): Ranmaru

LlamaFluff

(2):

SocioPath

, Papa Zito
Crazy (1):

AGar

Not voting (4):

Oman

, chkflip, Cogito Ergo Sum

Scum don't want to bus two buddies in a row, and certainly not their RB. There's a decent chance that the AGar wagon is all town at this point. Scum are going to be pushing a likely alternative or afraid to vote at all. Thor attacked someone who'd been on suspect lists for two days, PZ added weight to a town-on-town situation, one of these two is scum. Ran threw his vote away again and receives a delicious brownie. One of chk/CES is def-scum.

Looking at this VC and the context following, the reason for our Llama vote should be more clear. My intent was to create an all likely-town alternative to AGar. As a bonus, it was on his biggest detractor, tempting chainsaws. I think I might have been a little too overt and the scumz wouldn't bite.

AGar

(8): Crazy, Cyberbob, Plum,

LlamaFluff

,

Twilight Sparkle

,

Punkin

, chkflip,

SocioPath

Ranmaru (1): Cogito Ergo Sum
Thor665 (2): Papa Zito, Ranmaru
chkflip (1): Thor665
Crazy (1):

AGar

Not voting (1):

Oman

Assuming we were right about the all-town initial three on AGar: either chk is scum or this was an all-town lynch. Scumpoints for chk, especially because Llama said that AGar-scum meant chk-town.

This may be the most likley situation I've ever seen for an all-town lynch, so we're not ruling that out prima facie, but the remaining unconfirmed each seem unlikley to be scum with one another. The only exception to this is CES + Thor. Ergo, if chk is proven town, scumteam is Thor + CES and if one or both of Thor/CES are proven town, chk is def-scum.

Note also that the two unconfirmed non-voters became uncomfortable and jumped into the fray. CES throwing his vote away on OMGUS could go either way. Chk's vote makes sense as the late bus, especially with the only real alternative being the obv-trap on Llama. In examining this, we looked back at chk's voting habits. He has been a mid-to-late wagoner in every case except when NS was under heavy fire on D2, at which point he placed the initial vote on a townie. This discrepancy is odd from all perspectives but makes zero sense from a chk-is-town PoV.

[Punkin]

@Ran:

That "breadcrumb" you caught on Crazy is interesting because it also could have been taken as a veiled call for the double-bus. What was your read of Crazy before he made that statement?

Dude, if you really suspected Llama...

There is no way scum with a RB gambits a cop-claim by lynching said RB. That's staking the entire game on a coinflip and, frankly, Llama isn't that stupid. I have a hard time believing that anyone who put a moment's thought into this would even consider it. Is Ran really that clueless? Then again, if he's town, he's pretty clueless.

[Punkin]

Xine asked to be involved in boiling our VCA down to conclusions this time around, so she can see how it's done. This will not happen until tomorrow or, at the very latest, Wednesday. I was coming in here to apologize for the delay but I like the discussion that has sparked from the raw analysis and am happy to let it continue.

[Punkin]

The more I read of Ran's posting the more I fell like he's trying to create noise and contusion, pointing fingers all over, giving lessons on how to play, double posting, quote walls, anything to draw attention away from his lack of real content.
I'm not the only one seeing this am I?

[Punkin]

Double-posting with our other head.

Conversation since the VCA has earned further scumpoints for Ran and chk. The former for under-reacting to my scum-or-dumb declaration and using some pretty bad logic in his stubborn attack on PZ. Scumz forgot who they killed, what?

Chk threw a dirty one-two punch against Thor with the stretchy buddying accusation and some scummy selective quoting. It feels like a desperate mafioso tired of teetering on the brink of a Thor lynch, and may also point to Ran-scum (though I didn't assign points to Ran for that). Chkflip just keeps getting scummier. It's astounding. We're not going to look over the VCA conclusions until tomorrow at the earliest but, no matter what they do to our read on him, I can tell y'all right now that I do

not

want this guy unconfirmed in endgame. Lynch or cop. Period.

This is a gem of a slip from one of the Yth-confirmed...

a lot of the reason I voted Ranmaru was because I worried that chk and/or Thor were Llama's confirmed innocents

You think they are scum but looked elsewhere because you were worried the cop got an innocent on them? I assigned double points for this. Not enough to push Crazy anywhere near the suspect list but something to be remembered in endgame if our house of cards comes tumbling down,

especially

if chk and Thor are town.

You ask for proof of your own scumminess, but you don't even have proof of your own townieness. Meaning, you have no room to ASK FOR A CASE.

Burden of proof: you're doing it wrong.

[Punkin]

Um... Oman...

When you're doing all that rereading stuff, you might want to check the list of dead players. One of your lead suspects is kinda on it. Also, he was town.

UNVOTE: Thor
VOTE: chkflip

Not interested in L-1 yet.

[Punkin]

Xine and I have a hydra date today. Not sure what time but certainly before Wednesday.

@Thor:

Your stance was that cog dis suggested PZ was faking his mistake for towncred. Ran, OTOH, countered Crazy's argument (mistake looks legitimate therefore town), by saying that scum might have

actually

forgotten their kill. Those are not even remotely the same thing. In fact, for yours to be true, at the very least, PZ must believe that Ran's is false.

Ranmaru-chkflip-AGar could've totally made the shooting-a-VT screw-up.

Interesting considering #705. CES argued against that team, saying that the possibility of a mistake undermined my speculation about a VT being killed by those three players because of his suspicions. Now he thinks they were the ones who made the mistake? Sounds like a fork in the bullshit stream.

Will you still love me?

Just promise me that after Llama confirms me, you'll do what we say.

If he understands the setup he is town, if he doesnt he is leaning scum.

I think it's the opposite, actually. Explain how you got here?

Quid pro quo: If he understands the setup, Ran suspecting you is him suspecting that you'd stake the lives of 2/3 of your remaining team on a 50% chance of there not being a cop/doc combo, while also removing your main tool for dealing with that combo. In other words, if he is neither clueless nor thinks the mafia is, then he is scum.

@Ran:

Do you know how this setup works?

[Punkin]

Bullshit. The statement

scum aren't paying attention

is exclusively hunting for groupings. And D3 is significantly earlier than D4? What?

CES: Mafia is three players who made a collective mistake.
Punk: Players A/B/C had a reason to kill the VT.
CES: No, it was a mistake.
CES: Players A/B/C made the mistake.

If CES is scum here, his knee-jerk counter to my team-of-three argument suggests there were two scum in that group. Second-slotting suggests chk. Cardflips from CES/chk just went up in value.

[Punkin]

I'm more accurate

than you

. No offense. Look at my meta for specific instances of Llama-Yth and hito-Yth owning the scumz.

Isolated VCA Conclusions

Sullied, in order of scumminess:
chk
CES
Thor/Ran (tied)

Possible teams, in order of likeliness:
chk + Ran
chk + CES
CES + Thor

Overall Conclusions

Top three, in order: chk, Ran, CES. Not interested in lynching outside this list.

Null leaning scummy on Thor. Plum is epically null, which probably means town in this spread. The identities of the Yth-confirmed have not changed at all (reads strengthened across the board).

[Punkin]

Sorry, I didn't mean for that to come off as harsh, but you

did

just second-slot a dead guy.

Speaking of harsh...

@Ran:

I see that you posted some stuff at us. I read it and noted that you are either incapable of reasonable discussion or spewing crap on purpose but, either way, I see no benefit to addressing any of it. I'm getting really tired of you trumpeting about with worthless questions and blatant point-missing. I'm getting tired of you murdering logic and acting as if word count is an infallible measure of alignment. And of you accusing obv-town players of failing to scumhunt when you don't seem to know what the word means.

I want you to look back at the VCA and take note of the fact that you have

never

voted scum in this game. If you are town, you haven't helped us at all and, in fact, are helping the scum by creating a smokescreen of worthless noise. If you are scum, your flailing isn't going to do you any good and it's annoying as hell. Either way, please try to invoke some kind of filter between your brain and your keyboard. Thank you.

Now can we

please

lynch chkflip?

[Punkin]

^ made me look back at the lynch wagons

Of the uncomfirmed...

• Thor and Ran have only lynched town.
  
• CES and chk have lynched one of each.
  
• PZ and Crazy have lynched one scum each and zero town.
  
• Cyberbob has lynched everyone.

Seems about right considering our reads.

[Punkin]

Cyberbob has lynched everyone.

lol

inb4bobsigsit

@chk:

Yeah, sure. It's going to take me a bit thought because when we first started our notes we only logged post numbers but failed to write down reasons. Right now I can give you this breakdown...

Behavioral +18 = 24 scum - 6 town.
VCA +23 = 6 d3 + 17 d4.
Activity -4 (d1 only).
Total +39.

By comparison, Ran's total in our #2 slot is +29. Our towniest slot has -11.

Where have I attacked your intellect? I don't remember typing (or thinking) anything like that regarding you.

[Punkin]

@chk:

Here you go. FTR, I'm not really interested in a point-by-point defense. I'm only providing this because you asked.

Your entrance was all RVS in spite of some things to comment on, followed by fence riding which you then backed off of and described as inspired by self-consciousness. You buddied to a few players in ways that suggested you knew our alignments (and seemed overdefensive to Xine), posted fluff, excused yourself by citing RVS on page 4, and built false links.

In #163, you made a baseless vote on the lead wagon while citing an invisible case, posted crap attacks, and made an unnecessary meta-argument about how you are always scummy. In #289, you made a vote change that seemed inspired by the fact that Nacho was gaining cred, but tried to attribute it to an attack elsewhere. You provided soft support for a lead wagon but bounced around it.

You demonstrated a lack of careful reading and changed your play to ease pressure in the same post (double points). Your vote on Sudo followed selective reasoning and misrepped him (SP is the one who caught the first half of this in #393, we sheeped it into our notes). You received one point each for the voting dynamics I discussed in #409 and #418, and for using that preemptive meta defense you'd initiated earlier.

At this point there is a several page gap in our notes regarding you but not others, which means you were null or we were distracted by other people. I should probably reread your iso during that period to see which, but not right now. Anyway...

You voted Ran without comment which I don't find scummy by itself but it was out of character for you, came at a time when there was a lot to discuss (Thor-Ran dilemma, cop claim) and was strategically safe considering Llama's vote. You received one point for connections to AGar, one point each for a stretchy attack and quote twisting, and one for strategic voting.

Overall, most of your votes have followed a scum agenda (as evidenced in the VCAs) and have been attributed to one-liner reasons that seem more like excuses than beliefs.

[Punkin]

I see two major flaws in your thinking there, Llama.

1. You're giving Ran-scum too much credit. Even if he was killed for his suspicions, I seriously doubt the scumteam who NKed Nacho is planning ahead to optimize LYLO.
   
2. You're forgetting that Ran didn't outright attack you. What he did was use suspicion of you as the excuse for why he was asking for breadcrumbs. If he's scum, he wasn't trying to get you lynched, he was trying to figure out who your innocents were.

@Ran:

This isn't a newbie game and I'm not an IC. Point being: 100% of the people who you accuse of not scumhunting or not providing enough content have been clearer in their stances than you have, 100% of them have voted known scum more than you, and 100% of them seem to have a firmer grasp of this game. That's in spite of all your "content".

@chk:

If you're talking about what I said to SP, that was me questioning him about the ramifications of your vote. His stance at the time was Sudo-town, chk-scum. Yours was that NS was scummy but you moved your vote to Sudo during the buildup of the NS wagon, immediately after my feeler-vote on Sudo. The question had more to do with determining

his

alignment than anything else.

Crazy is on our def-town list.

@PZ:

Good catch. I'm okay with lynching Ran over chk today, especially because of the VT claim. However, I want to reiterate:

chkflip is not to be let into LYLO alive and un-copped

.

UNVOTE: chkflip
VOTE: Ranmaru L-1

[Punkin]

[Punkin]

So Ran, did you ever get around to noticing that that we had stated the answer to your question in the post that was 3 posts before yours?
(Hint, you quoted the relevant post in yours.)

BTW what are you talking about? You addressed a statement to everyone, because you believed you were talking to crazy...?

[Punkin]

So many willing hammers. So few

actual

hammers.

@Ranmaru: Why do you continually insist that Punkin and only Punkin be investigated?

I don't think he's savvy enough to be pulling the double WIFOM here, so it probably means that his buddy is on his short list. Which is odd because that would mean I am wrong about you or bob. Hmmm...

@Crazy:

I don't think a no lynch will be necessary tomorrow. Ran is obv at this point and we've got the last scum in a small group. Even if the doc gets run up to claim, we don't lynch him, meaning that Llama still gets that second investigation. I doubt he'll need a third.

[Punkin]

Oh and, speaking of cop advice...

If we are right about Ran, investigating one of chk/CES should give us the game tomorrow because the bulk of our info points to exactly two of these three being scum.

[Punkin]

I too have noticed a strong connection between Crazy and Ranmaru. Crazy has been on the "obv town" list for a while, but I'll be looking closer at him for sure.
Crazy, I don' see how a now lynch tomorrow would hurt us specifically, I agree that overconfidence can cause big blind spots, thanks for the reminder to stay aware of such pitfalls.
Plum, do you often take this long to follow up with a hammer after threatening one?

Mod, where is plum's vote right now?

[Punkin]

Do you have some reason for why a No Lynch tomorrow will

hurt

us?

Nothing major. One fewer cardflip. And an extra three days of boredom in a game that could be over already.

Crazy has been on the "obv town" list for a while, but I'll be looking closer at him for sure.

Xine's been tunneling on Crazy behind the scenes lately, even more than this quote reveals. We should probably have a talk about that because I simply do not agree.

[Punkin]

I'm not a fan of no lynch at this point, but wouldn't draw a line in the sand about it.

A quicklynch within the same pool as yesterday is fine by me.

VOTE: CES

The best option may be to announce the new innocent and let those four players direct the town.

[Punkin]

Fine, though I think it's a waste of time.

UNVOTE: CES
VOTE: no lynch

If we're doing this we should cut discussion and hammer it ASAP.

[Punkin]

Finally.

VOTE: chkflip

Scumteam has been obv since Ran flipped town. Should I even bother with analysis?

LOL. I saw the cool-hydra-names thread in GD and suddenly I facepalmed.