Open 302: JUNGLE REPUB nope game over! Party time!

zMuffinMan · Post Post #54 (isolation #1) » Wed Apr 27, 2011 12:05 pm

Vote: Regfan

obvscum

zMuffinMan · Post Post #131 (isolation #2) » Thu Apr 28, 2011 6:27 pm

Sloth wrote:I'm skimming those walls, just so you guys know.

I read the first 10 then skimmed the rest. What a waste of time.

EmpKing wrote:Muffin: What do you think of neil's insistence that he challenged me before I voted him? Kind of makes it clear that he's scum, right?

I think you two obviously have some sort of grudge going based on this other game you're both in. I don't think there's anything to gain from reading any deeper into it than that at the moment.

TwistedSpoon wrote:looks too strong to be town v town in my experience and It looks too disorganised and 3-way to be a bus

however I don't know what to think since we have 2 scum factions :/

need more opinions. Looks like just you 3 so far

What about the "strength" of it made you think it isn't TvT? If you don't think it's TvT and you don't think it's bussing, then who do you think is town and who do you think is scum and why?

Unvote Vote: TwistedSpoon

TwistedSpoon wrote:8324

question: do scum and werewolf factions get daytalk?

I didn't take notice of this irony before I went back through your ISO...

Scum feigning ignorance of his role?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #184 (isolation #3) » Fri Apr 29, 2011 5:23 pm

MoI is pretty clearly winning this argument against Empking. I'm really not convinced that MoI is right, but I am convinced that MoI is a lot better at arguing.

Empking wrote:Yes which means I put that in a new tab first and then new tabbed the second. This means surprise, surprise that 214 was the closest to the left and thus the first one I read.

Granted, the point about it being the "third" game he looked at is irrelevant and I don't know why MoI keeps pushing it, you ignored the main point... The game you looked at was one in which scum had vested interest in keeping their partner alive because they died with their partner... It's a different situation. You can't just say it's the same because it's not ideal for a werewolf to die on D1... Or, well, you can, but it's a pretty poor argument.

Wickedestjr wrote:I have two problems with this. First of all, this is IIoA. He points this out but doesn't give any opinion on it. Secondly, this is opportunistic, because he thinks it is possible that Twistedspoon could be scum feigning ignorance of his role, but made no mention of neil1113 despite there being more evidence of this exact same point against him

I found it ironic that TS was criticising neil for doing it while it appears he was doing it himself. I regarded it as a null tell, but TS himself didn't, which is why I found it interesting, but that in and of itself is not why I'm voting for TS. I dislike his early play, trying to put pressure on someone for a poor reason, and I dislike that since then he has just been sitting back and not posting anything relevant.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #234 (isolation #4) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 4:46 pm

@Empking,

I've counted about 10 different times now that you've tried to use something completely insignificant in making a case against someone. For example, do you genuinely think incorrect use of grammar and punctuation can be used as a scum tell?

DK is right when he said you're spending way too much time quoting every single little thing from every person that attacks you, especially when it seems you're completely misinterpreting what they're actually saying a lot of the time. It's not helping this game at all, and while it may be your playstyle, you should really just drop it.

@Regfan,

What's your opinion of Empking?

@Sloth,

Why do you think DK is scum? I assume there's more to your vote than just his recent "admission of tunneling". I'm actually getting town vibes from DK at the moment. Partially because of his #207, and although there has been a lot of discussion about faking that sort of thing, I actually think he's VI and that was genuine.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #236 (isolation #5) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 4:59 pm

OK...

You removed my quote of you in order to make an "it" that was referring to playing to your scum meta instead look like an "it" referring to defending your scumbuddy (or vice versa).

I don't think that was his intention, and nobody else who has read it and commented on it seems to think it was his intention either.

Do you want me to go through your ISO and point out all of the times you've done it? I just picked that one because it was on this page.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #238 (isolation #6) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:15 pm

1. He did it. Do you agree with this?
2. He either did it for a reason or it was an accident. Do you agree with this?
3. You don't delete a paragraph and some bbcode by accident? Do you agree with this?
4. He did it for a reason. Do you agree with this?

If yes to those then what reason do you think he did it for?

1. He cut out your quote, yes.
2. He did it for a reason, yes.
3. See 2.
4. See 2.

To save space. I don't think it can be read into any deeper than that. I do it myself, when I want to cut out any irrelevant bits and make my posts as short and concise as possible.

Is misquoting someone a grammar mistake or puntuation mistake?

You didn't ask me to give you an example of you making a big deal of a grammar/punctuation mistake, you asked me to give you an example of you misinterpreting someone's post.

If you want an example of a punctuation/grammar mistake that you're making a bid deal out of, that would be in just about any of your posts re:neil.

For example,

Everybody: Do you notice how neil either knows or doesn't know whether or not he understands what I'm asking but rather than saying either way whether he knows or not he instead adds a question mark to it so he can't later be called out on it whether he knows or not?

And I know you were asking a question here, but you were implying that you thought it was something he was doing as scum. I saw it as nothing more than incorrect use of punctuation (a question mark, in this instance). You're making a big deal out of nothing.

And with that, I'm done walking down this path with you. It's detrimental and I've made my point. If you want to argue it any further, I won't be responding.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #246 (isolation #7) » Sun May 01, 2011 3:45 am

er...

Where did I say I think Empking is scummy? I think his case is bad because it's based on pedantry and misinterpretation. I think he's losing an argument against stronger players. I don't think that necessarily makes him scum.

On that note, you originally put your vote on Empking because you didn't like his playstyle. I assume you now think he's scum. When did you start thinking that and why?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #260 (isolation #8) » Mon May 02, 2011 10:21 pm

@Empking,

Have you dropped your case on neil or do you just think DK is scummier at the moment?

@Hez,

I just want to verify something... You think Empking is scummy purely because you disagreed with him on something? Or am I misreading your reason for voting him?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #279 (isolation #9) » Tue May 03, 2011 2:41 pm

@MOI,

MoI wrote:So do you find him scummy or do you have a Town read on him? I’d like some clarity on this issue.

I don't find him scummy. I'm not confident he's town, but I don't find anything he's done scummy. If anything, I'm null leaning town on him. I don't like his style of questioning (and I'm baffled as to why he can't figure out why people are telling him he's asking loaded, leading questions), I think he's focusing too much on finding anything he can "scummy", but I don't think that necessarily makes him scum.

Why are you so sure he's scum? Could you try making a short concise post with the reasons you think he's scum? There's no need to quote everything he's ever done, just give me a synopsis. I understand you think he's bad, but why do you think his bad play is scummy?

@Wicked,

Wickedestjr wrote:Does it bother anybody that zMuffinMan still hasn't given his opinion of Empking or neil? Because it doesn't look like he has.

There's 11 people other than myself in the game, I'm not sure why you're so concerned that I haven't given my opinion on Empking or neil when I don't think I've really given my opinion on anyone apart from TS at this point.

Why are you so interested in neil and Empking? Are you asking me to give you my reads here, or are you just slinging mud at me? Do you think I'm scummy?

@Hezlucky,

Why are you so keen on policy lynching? I can understand that you have suspicions about Empking, but it seems you don't actually think DK is scummy, just VI...

On that note, can you elaborate on your suspicions of Empking? What about his "poor responses, leading questions, arguing by repetitions" do you find scummy? Why do you think he hasn't been "scum hunting"? What anti-town behaviour are you talking about?

@Empking

Can s0omebody provide an example of where I've asked a leading question?

... While I don't personally have a problem with your questioning style, you do it pretty much every time you ask a question.

Am I right in thinking that you're refusing to answer that because you're scum?

The very last question you asked, in #267... Clearly a leading question.

"Why are you refusing to answer my question?" - not leading
"You're refusing to answer my question because you're scum, right?" - leading

A lot of your other questions have been both loaded, and leading.

You misquote people to shorten your post?

Loaded because you're implying I "misquote" people and leading for obvious reasons.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #317 (isolation #10) » Thu May 05, 2011 3:51 pm

@MoI,

-His reaction to pressure is suspect. He immediately tries to frame the (and this is conjecture but I think it holds water) weakest player on his early bandwagon as scum (Neil).

I can see where you're coming from here, but I interpreted it differently. To me it just looked like they had some sort of history. Empking stated in pre-game he was going to be voting Neil. Neil also initially voted Empking for his playstyle.

-His scum-hunting consists of mostly applying, in a generally inaccurate manner, Wiktells (AtE, Misrep, Strawman) to those who apply pressure to him.

I disagree with this. Although most of his posts have been him defending himself against several people attacking him, he has been trying to involve other people - I see him constantly asking for people's opinions on things that come up, and while that's not necessarily "scum hunting", it is a way of getting reads on people if he is town. It's not exactly pressuring people, but I wouldn't say he hasn't been scum hunting outside of his attackers.

Also, he has a point in saying that (supposing he is town) his wagon is most likely populated by scum. If he's town, the chances of him getting to L-2 just from townie votes is pretty low.

-drown the thread in posts, continually repeat questions about the same issue after they have been answered, and generally attempt to demonize those who attack you.

eh, I didn't think this was scummy. I thought this was more just him being pedantic and overzealous. I agree he needs to stop, though.

-Focused strongly on semantics and wordplay as opposed to scum-motivation for play.

I agree with this part. It's one aspect of his play I don't like, but I'm more null on it. It's anti-town and I think it needs to stop.

I think I need to take a look at Empking's meta before I go any further with this. I really don't have any idea if this sort of playstyle is normal for him.

@neil,

So, you're saying that asking leading questions aren't scum-motivated techniques, so you don't have a problem with them?

Uh... I don't really see how asking leading questions is necessarily a scum-motivated technique.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #343 (isolation #11) » Fri May 06, 2011 8:54 am

Well, this doesn't really change my opinion of Empking, and it would also explain some of the things I was unsure of (like why he was being so active in this game).

This also just strengthens my suspicion of TS based on his posts on this page.

I need sleep badly, so I'll look closer at this when I wake up.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #360 (isolation #12) » Sat May 07, 2011 6:00 pm

@Wicked,

Wicked wrote:Yes, I think you are scummy. It is suspicious how you'd only given your read on TS, but especially suspicious that you didn't give your reads on Empking or neil. At the time of your post where you voted TS, Empking and neil had made most of the posts in the thread arguing with eachother. To ignore them seems odd. Almost like you want to avoid talking about one of them.

You think it's suspicious that I didn't give my read on Empking/neil after their little squabble?

Ah, that would explain why

you

didn't give your read on them after it, either. Slip?

I read the initial posts between them, I skimmed the rest. It looked like a petty argument based on some history they have with each other. I didn't see anything from either of them that struck me as particularly scummy.

Are you saying that

you

had a read on them after that, and just neglected to mention it? Were you trying to avoid talking about one of them?

---

On lynching Empking tomorrow -

It's a bit different to the situation you're talking about in your first game, Wicked. I'm guessing you played a setup where you didn't necessarily know there was a cop in the game - we know there's one in this game. If the werewolves are ballsy enough to keep Empking alive (assuming he is the seer), and he is too incompetent to find a werewolf by say, D3 or D4, we should really consider policy lynching. It's something like 40% he'd find a werewolf by D3 and 60% by D4 (assuming we don't lynch one before then).

Still, I agree lynching him D2 might be a bit early considering the possibility werewolves will gamble tonight. Deal with that when we get there.

@Empking,

Empking wrote:derp a derp derp. The reason my wagon didn't get any bigger is because those with the ability to make it happen weren't so inclined? Gosh. Now here's the thing, unless my wagon was already mostly red the scum would be so inclined to put me at L-1. But that didn't happen. Now if Y is required for X not to happen and X did not happen then Y is true!

Well, assuming you're really the seer, I don't think your wagon was necessarily filled with scum. It could just be something like 1 werewolf, 1 mafioso. That would still explain why scum would have been hestitant to move you past L-2.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #364 (isolation #13) » Sat May 07, 2011 11:56 pm

Empking wrote:No because Mafia wouldn't not join the wagon just because one mafioso was already on it.

You're saying you think there was more than one mafioso on your wagon because otherwise they wouldn't be hestitant to put you at L-1 if just one of them as on the wagon?

I'm not a fan of this sort of WIFOM reasoning.

--

Wicked wrote:What? Learn to read. I did give my read of them in this post

Oh. My apologies. I didn't read that last line because I figured you'd have substantiated your reads.

Two things don't make sense to me:

What about their argument made you think it's TvT?

If you think it's TvT, then where do I fit in? And why didn't you bring this up at the time if you had a problem with me being null on it?

Wicked wrote:Even if Empking continuously investigates non-werewolves, I don't think we should lynch him if he survives to day 3 or day 4. If we reach a point where we want the real seer to claim if Empking is lying, that will prove whether or not Empking is town or scum. Lynching him simply because he is investigating townies and is still alive by day 4 is not strong enough evidence.

Yeah, I probably wasn't thinking properly when I suggested outright PLing him D3/D4 if he hadn't found a werewolf, but if Empking isn't a werewolf, I don't really see werewolves letting a claimed seer live until D3.

Obviously it wouldn't be as simple as "lynch him, he's alive..." - I think real seer should cc D3 if Empking isn't the real seer and they're both alive. If there's no cc, there wouldn't be a need to lynch him.

In any case, I think the issue can wait until D3. It's not something that needs to be discussed anymore today.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #373 (isolation #14) » Sun May 08, 2011 1:07 am

@Empking,

Empking wrote:
zMuffinMan wrote:
Empking wrote:No because Mafia wouldn't not join the wagon just because one mafioso was already on it.

You're saying you think there was more than one mafioso on your wagon because otherwise they wouldn't be hestitant to put you at L-1 if just one of them as on the wagon?

I'm not a fan of this sort of WIFOM reasoning.

How is that WIFOM reasoning?

Because you're making assumptions about what mafia would do that aren't necessarily correct. It's fine as a theory, but if you're saying there was definitely more than 1 mafioso on the wagon, then I'd have to disagree with you.

--

@Wicked,

Re: your explanation about it being TvT - right, but in a game with 2 scum teams, why do you think them "genuinely" hunting scum is a town tell? I could understand you thinking they're not scum of the same faction, but how did you come to the conclusion that they're both town when both factions should have an interest in hunting scum and both factions could theoretically make it seem genuine?

Wicked wrote:What do you mean? I would have wanted you to comment on them regardless of my reads on them.

I assumed you thought I had some reason for not wanting to comment on them. If you think they're both townies, what sort of scummy reason would I have for not wanting to comment?

In the first place, I'm not really sure where you're going with me not commenting = scummy. I didn't have a read on them based on that argument (and I explained why), nor was I the only one who didn't give a read on them.

Wicked wrote:What are you talking about when you say 'this'?

Me not having a read on Empking/neil based on their argument. I'm interested in why you waited so long to bring it up.

Wicked wrote:@zMuffinMan - Since you're online, what do you think of my points against neil and Twistedspoon?

Re: TS, I mostly agree.

Re: neil, I'm actually confused about your case on him. You think HezLucky is scummy, but you think neil is bussing him. And you wouldn't be happy with lynching HezLucky even though you think he's scummy. I think your case on him comes down to a misinterpretation of his reasoning for voting HezLucky. I don't think he did it for "pressure", I think he was just noting that HezLucky hasn't been pressured today. I also have no idea what the WIFOM scenario he's talking about is, so I can't exactly comment on that.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #382 (isolation #15) » Sun May 08, 2011 5:58 am

Wicked wrote:Yes, but you didn't explain why you didn't have a read until I questioned you for not taking a stance.

Well, actually, I did, in the same post I voted TS.

Wicked wrote:The main reason I believed they were both town is because I had trouble seeing them attract so much attention to themselves as scum and I originally thought their reactions to the other's accusations seemed townish. Genuinely believing in their accusations isn't enough to make me believe they were each town alone, but it made me feel slightly better about them each. That's the only reason why I mentioned that point. Why are you ignoring the other reasons I gave?

Because your other reasons aren't actually reasons... I mean really, scum would want to fly under the radar so they are probably town...? I didn't take your other reasons seriously.

Wicked wrote:I brought it up as soon as I was caught up.

No, you didn't...

This is my post, and this is your catch-up post.

I'm not seeing mention of it, although I do see you trying to attack my vote on TS very poorly. Surely in your struggle to find "scummy" things about my play you would have at least mentioned it then...

2: Where did I say [I don't want to lynch HezLucky]?

#366

The two people I would be happy with lynching today are Twistedspoon and neil1113.

Yes, you're not explicitly stating that you don't want HezLucky lynched, but that's how I read it.

I'm considering the possibility you're attempting to chainsaw neil. This would explain why you think HezLucky is scummy but you aren't "happy" to lynch him today.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #397 (isolation #16) » Sun May 08, 2011 3:01 pm

@Regfan,

zMuffinMan - You state you think Wickedtestjr 'slipped' does that mean you believe he's mafia? What's your read on Neil?

Re: Wicked, it's a possibility I'm considering. I have a slightly scummy read on Wicked based on him constantly trying to find things that simply aren't scum tells and calling them scummy. I think he's trying to make it look like he's scum hunting by throwing accusations at everyone, but he's not actually doing it for good reasons. I think a lot of his suspicions are poorly reasoned, and his recent posts are extremely inconsistent. e.g. His case on neil at the moment revolves around him thinking that HezLucky is scum and neil is his partner... But he wouldn't be happy with a HezLucky lynch, just a neil lynch, and he's made no real mention of why he thinks HezLucky is scummy, he's just said he thinks it. In any case, I think TS is displaying scummier behaviour than Wicked, so Wicked is by no means my top suspect.

Re: neil, I'm null leaning town. His posts are well-reasoned, and I don't really get scummy vibes from them. I am not really sure why Empking has such a hardon for him, and I'm pretty sure Wicked was keen on buddying him up until neil voted HezLucky.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #417 (isolation #17) » Fri May 13, 2011 8:34 pm

I think HezLucky+Wicked are likely scum of the same faction.

I'll explain this in detail in the next few hours. Got dinner soon, and just can't be bothered making a case right now.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #421 (isolation #18) » Sat May 14, 2011 1:02 am

@Regfan,

Werewolves, currently it's 5 v 3 v 2. If we mslynch today, and a VT dies tonight a situation arises where it's almost impossible for you to win therefore it's in your best interests to scumhunt with us today as well as aim for scum if we msylnch.

That's an interesting statement, and I'm not actually sure what you're suggesting here (since it really doesn't make sense), or why you made this statement.

---

Re: case on Hez+Wicked, I'll have to get around to it tomorrow.

A brief summary of it is that I think HezLucky is scummy due to voting patterns and the content of the PBPA in his wall posts and there are a few connections between Hez+Wicked that make sense (e.g. Hez's RVS vote on Wicked and Wicked's reasons for thinking neil is scum, which were based on neil attacking Hez).

I'll most likely vote Hez after I write this up, too.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #423 (isolation #19) » Sat May 14, 2011 2:08 am

In neither of the first two scenarios do mafia automatically win because it would take 4 to lynch and they wouldn't have a majority (3 v 2+1 is not a majority and neither the werewolf team or town team is going to hand over the game tot he mafia team at that point, I'd assume), and the third scenario isn't exactly accurate either.

First priority today is lynching scum of any faction, and both scum factions should have an interest in doing this, so I'm really interested in why you made this statement in the first place. Also interesting to note that you switched the term "mafia" with "scum" midway.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #441 (isolation #20) » Sun May 15, 2011 7:50 am

Spoiler: Hez

Spoiler: Wicked

Wicked wrote:Where have I done this? [re: bad reasons for suspicions]

Well, you've been doing this a lot, IMO. Apart from TS, who actually was playing in a scummy manner, I haven't seen a suspicion from you so far that was well-supported. The whole neil+Hez thing is an example of this.

Wicked wrote: How? [re:inconsistency]

I can't remember off the top of my head why I said this but I assume it had to do with your posts near the end of D1 and I might have specifically been referring to your actions surrounding Hez. I will have to go back and read again and try to remember what I was talking about here.

Wicked wrote:Nice misrep. First of all, no, my case doesn't revolve around HezLucky being scum. It's a possibility, but I found neil suspicious for the vote regardless of HezLucky's allignment. Secondly, I never said I wouldn't be happy with a HezLucky lynch. I just said that I didn't want to lynch him day 1. Finally, I don't have any solid evidence against HezLucky. My suspicion of him is combination of gut and POE (but mostly gut).

Sorry, you said you think neil is bussing, and you think (or thought) Hez is scum (but now you're apparently null on him), so I just connected the dots here... Although it is true that your case on neil revolved entirely around his vote on Hez initially, because prior to that you supposedly had a town read on him.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #442 (isolation #21) » Sun May 15, 2011 8:01 pm

OK, no new posts in 12 hours, was kind of hoping there'd be some feedback or criticism or anything by now, but whatever.

I just checked Hez's meta. There aren't many games, but his playstyle is different in the games he's flipped town. There's none of the complaining that he's doing in this game, and when I was reading through his posts in games he was town I didn't get the same feeling that his posts were forced and insincere like I'm getting in this game. His votes in other games actually make sense, and he pushes his stances rather than just putting votes out and coasting along like in this game. Also, just a side note, he hasn't done a RVS vote like in this game in any of the games he's town, so this just reinforces my opinion that there was some meaning behind it, although it could just be pure coincidence.

VOTE: HezLucky

zMuffinMan · Post Post #453 (isolation #22) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:37 pm

I had issues with the way you were using meta last time we played. Your suspicion of Scumhunter seemed to revolve entirely around meta, so I didn't think you had much of a case on him. And I thought you were drawing the wrong conclusions from your use of Tragedy's meta. But I'm not opposed to the use of meta (and I'm not sure how you came to this conclusion, considering I did read Tragedy's meta, I just disagreed with your conclusions).

As for Hez's meta, one game is at N3 now (he was town Doc that died N2, but I'm not sure whether it's appropriate to discuss an ongoing game) and the other game is Mini 1151 where he was a townie that survived to the endgame. Notable differences include

- the lack of complaining (no complaints about the amount of posts, no complaints about walls, no complaints about arguments taking place, etc) - this sort of complaining is distracting and anti-town at best and scummy at worst
- actual cases on people. none of this pbpa "that's scummy!" no explanation stuff - he actually makes cases on people
- he pushes the cases he makes - he doesn't sit back and just have his vote on someone when it's doing absolutely nothing
- and this last one is just my personal intuition, but the vibes I get from reading his posts and explanations for the things he says in this game are just totally different to what I got reading through his other games

zMuffinMan · Post Post #455 (isolation #23) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:25 pm

Sloth needs to be more active. I don't find anything really scummy in his posts, but I haven't really seen him make or push a case on anyone, there's nothing that stands out to me as town in his posts, and his inactivity isn't helping. Null, I need to hear more from him.

I've followed a couple of games DK is in and seen him lynched twice D1 purely for being VI and really just being an easy lynch (both times he flipped town). And yes, he presents the same sort of arguments in each game. I have trouble reading that type of player (as you probably already know), but I'm leaning VI town now.

MoI I'm leaning town. There's good content in his posts and his arguments are sensible. I don't see MoI-as-scum pushing that hard for a mislynch on Empking, either.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #470 (isolation #24) » Tue May 17, 2011 4:55 pm

LMP wrote:TOWN
MagnaofIllusion
Regfan
neil1113
DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan
Wickedestjr
cjdrum
HezLucky
Sloth
SCUM

Considering neither Hez nor Sloth have posted in between your last post and this one, I'm interested in how you changed this up.

Also interested in the zMM = Sloth buddy post.

Wicked wrote:zMuffinMan attacked one of my posts (that I had made a long time ago) shortly after I continued attacking him. If it was something that he really found suspicious, then he would've questioned me on it earlier.

Er..............

Are you really making this point?

It's a direct misrepresentation of what I said, and it's also extremely hypocritical because it's what

you

did.

Considering my rebuttal of your terrible argument against a much earlier post of mine as by referencing a much earlier post of yours, it's actually funny that you're even trying to use this against me.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #479 (isolation #25) » Wed May 18, 2011 7:50 pm

Hez wrote:the "thinks like Hez" theory that I have CONSISTENTLY BEEN USING IN ALL MY GAMES THAT HE HAS CLAIMED TO META ME IN.

That's not what you've done in any of your other games. I can point to clear examples of you saying you disagree with someone's reads but think they're town (e.g. your read on Exe in 1151), and I can point to clear examples where you think someone's scum without even taking into account their reads.

It's also just terrible logic, full stop.

Hez wrote:In many games that you CLAIM TO HAVE META'D, I have stuck my vote on someone who has been previously voteless in order to draw attention to them.

The difference being you were pushing your votes in the other games. And since you clearly admit this later on, and attribute it to a "lack of interest", I don't even need to refute this.

Hez wrote:Dude. This is not a case. You know why? Anyone who had to read ten billion pages of Empking's crap all at once (as I unfortunately had to do) would be extremely frustrated with Empking PERIOD. Seriously, I would've vig'd him so fast if I had those powers.

It was never meant to be a case, it was a note because you'd be happy to see him die, regardless of his flip.

Hez wrote:Those voting for Empking while EMPKING CLAIMED SEER are SUPER DUPER SUPER SCUMMY.

Yeah, no, apart from there being obvious reasons to keep your vote on Empking even after a seer claim, this was your post

Hez wrote:- You guys are silly. You UNVOTE EMPKING because he has claimed the ONLY POWER ROLE IN THE GAME. You don't KEEP YOUR VOTE ON HIM. The consequences
of being wrong, on <<DAY ONE>> !!!!!!, are great. You severely hurt the town.

How anyone could possibly see this as sincere, I have no idea. You're scum trying to white knight. There's no other explanation for this.

Hez wrote:- why don't you comment on my lack of analysis of regfan while you are at it? We MUST be linked.

Links aren't as obvious, but noted you consciously have not been analysing regfan's play.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #481 (isolation #26) » Wed May 18, 2011 9:42 pm

Hez wrote:You are trying to misapply the theory in order to discredit me. Noted scum.

No, I'm not.

Do explain how you consistently use it, but get town reads on people who don't share your reads.

Also, it holds no water as a theory because... it's a terrible theory... like, I can't even tell if you're trolling and you actually think it makes sense.

Hez wrote:Once again, you are --lying-- (using very poor logic on purpose -- this reasoning is circular). There is NO difference. You are accusing me for "fluff votes", which are more than consistent with my meta, and then when I refute it you admit that you were wrong and pour on this garbage. Given that my so-called "fluff votes" were a) on DK, who has received plenty of suspicion throughout the game [[oh look, my so called fluff vote called attention to someone]] and (b) MoI, who I CONTINUED TO PUSH AT THE START OF TODAY, your argument holds very little water.

Voting for someone isn't pushing for their lynch. You've made no case on anyone (just pbpa and calling them scum). Your case on DK was he's VI but it's possible he's scum. I don't even know what your case on MoI is (I'm assuming it's that he argued with Empking?). Your case on me is OMGUS.

All you've done is pbpa, followed by putting your vote down and leaving it there.

Hez wrote:We'll see if you feel this way at the end of the game. This is common sense. I am Hez trying to give common sense. (and this would be very consistent with my meta if I had a large enough "n" as well). I don't know if mafiascummers in 2011 are idiots, but back in 2005 we did NOT LYNCH THE COP AFTER A DAY ONE CLAIM. It's moronic. You're arguing with me over a completely crap point. You're obviously able to string several sentences together to make a coherent argument against me. Your inability to understand this is what makes you obvious scum. "There's no other explanation for this."

The seer was outed in a game with no protective roles. The point is you made a huge deal out of lynching him being tragic.

The consequences of being wrong, on <<DAY ONE>> !!!!!!, are great. You severely hurt the town.

The seer was outed. He was useless. Regardless of what happened D1, town was already severely hurt.

That's terrible acting. And it was followed by a terrible FoS - as though scum are more likely to continue trying to get a claimed seer lynched. This was unbelievably scummy.

Hez wrote:Lynch Muffin now. He has constantly tried to misinterpret every single thing I have said in an attempt to get me lynched. His arguments hold absolutely no water, and when I refute them and he even admits that certain parts of my refutation are completely correct, he spews even more crap in an attempt to cover up his mistakes.

Yeah, no.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #495 (isolation #27) » Thu May 19, 2011 1:55 pm

Wicked wrote:He suggests an inconsistency here, but he is pretty obviously taking HezLucky's posts out of context here. Very scummy: I can't see TownzMuffinMan making this mistake. I think the misrep looked deliberate.

There's no misrepresentation there. Hez clearly indicates he doesn't care about Emp's flip, he just wants him lynched. Later he plays white knight acting like Emp's lynch would be tragic (when it really wouldn't be because if he was the real seer he'd die N1 anyway... we'd be only slightly worse off if he were lynched D1)

Wicked wrote:3.) Earlier he gave me a hard time for saying that Empking and neil1113 were unlikely to attract attention to themselves early on as scum. From memory, he said that it was weak reasoning. However, in his post 441, he feels the need to mention that Hez's rvs vote for me is a possible link between us. Way to both have your cake and eat it.

Are... you... serious? You think something as subtle as an RVS vote draws attention to yourself? The point of mentioning the RVS vote is that it was one of the more noticeable links between you and Hez. It wasn't obvious "attention attraction" like the neil vs Emp thing.

Try harder.

Wicked wrote:I NEVER said that TS was suspicious for voting Hez. I said he was suspicious for voting somebody with no votes when he had previously expressed interest in a bandwagon.

Again, this wasn't proof that you are scum, I was pointing out the link between you and Hez that has been consistent throughout the game.

Hint: "his first association with Hez" should have clued you in on this.

It was nothing to do with finding you scummy. It was your association with Hez.

Will respond to the rest of this and the rest of the thread when I have time.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #497 (isolation #28) » Thu May 19, 2011 6:15 pm

Spoiler walling the rest of the response to Wicked...

Spoiler:

@DK,

DK wrote:Why do you think HezLucky is less scum than neil?

Isn't it obvious, they are either both scum, or only one of them?

I have no idea what you're asking in your first question, but your second question is false.

--

I find myself mostly agreeing with the content of #491. I've been giving cjdrum too much of a free ride based on previous experience with him (he was VT in my first game and got lynched D1 for being scummy - the entire wagon on him consisted of townies, too).

If this Hez wagon doesn't pick up, I'll switch to cjdrum.

On that note, if anyone thinks Hez isn't scum, I want to know why.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #531 (isolation #29) » Mon May 23, 2011 4:16 pm

Well, my suspicion of Hez hasn't changed at all. Although if Hez+Wicked are scum of the same faction, they're likely werewolves and not mafia. It's also entirely possible I'm completely off in my Wicked read, but I'm very sure Hez is scum of some sort at this point.

VOTE: Hez

zMuffinMan · Post Post #535 (isolation #30) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:06 pm

@hf,

I sort of skimmed over the wall.

As far as I can tell, you think I'm scum because of links to DK and... my avatar?

@Regfan,

I don't actually think I'm playing drastically different in this game. There's probably a few differences because the setup and activity levels are different, but apart from that, I'd like to know what you think is so different.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #537 (isolation #31) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:54 pm

eh, I disagree. I wasn't as active as I was in our other game, but I do think I called the attack on Empking bad when a wagon actually formed on him (although I don't think he was playing badly, it was just a bad wagon because he wasn't playing in a scummy way). As for TS, I think he was playing in a legitimately scummy manner; it wasn't as simple as bad play like Tragedy's.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #543 (isolation #32) » Tue May 24, 2011 5:48 am

Werewolf.

I see more of a hez-wicked connection than a hez-cj connection, and I see no real reason to think wicked-hez-cj are mafia because I don't think wicked is mafia with cj. It's possible, but I doubt it.

But if hez were lynched and flipped mafia, I'd need to re-evaluate my read on wicked.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #547 (isolation #33) » Tue May 24, 2011 6:36 am

Wicked wrote:Have you looked at his scum play? Did you find any instances where he was complaining as scum?

He hasn't flipped scum yet that I've seen.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #550 (isolation #34) » Tue May 24, 2011 8:26 am

@Hez,

NK WIFOM points towards you being a werewolf than MoI, IMO.

I don't see a reason for MoI to kill LMP considering MoI is still pushing for a lynch on Sloth's slot. HINT:

Then killed him so he would not be committed to Sloth incase a better wagon came up.

... is a load of crap.

The whole LMP not being lynchable also points to you more than MoI.

@Wicked,

Wicked wrote:1: How is it a misrep? Elaborate, please.

Going to answer both 1 and 2 here.

What happened was you brought up a really old post and said you had a problem with it. I asked why you didn't mention it earlier. You said you did. I called bullshit because you didn't.

So no, I'm not attacking you for an old post, I'm attacking you for lying about what you said you did.

And it's extremely hypocritical of you to tell me if I found it "suspicious" I would have "questioned me on it earlier". How is this not hypocritical?

Wicked wrote:So why are you using meta against him?

My case stands independent of meta. His town meta just solidifies my read on him.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #567 (isolation #35) » Wed May 25, 2011 8:28 pm

@Wicked,

Spoiler:

zMuffinMan · Post Post #579 (isolation #36) » Thu May 26, 2011 10:36 am

@Regfan,

What are you talking about? I've been suggesting the likelihood that Hez+Wicked are scum together since the beginning of D2.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #591 (isolation #37) » Fri May 27, 2011 4:39 pm

@Wicked,

Wicked wrote:*Shrugs* I thought I had brought it up earlier than I actually did. What is the scum motivation for lying about something that is so easily provable?

The scum motivation isn't in you lying, although there's no town motivation there either. The scum motivation is in you pushing a baseless point against me.

Wicked wrote:Why have you ignored this? Responding to my post by saying "Well, how is it not hypocritical?" does nothing to prove your point and it is just ignorant.

Also, you still haven't responded to my point against you. Even if I was being hypocritical for attacking you for this (which I'm not as I've clearly shown) that doesn't mean you are allowed to avoid explaining the point against you.

Yeah, no matter how many times you say you have a "point" against me, it doesn't make it valid if there actually isn't a point.

a) It wasn't something I was guilty of full-stop. I was null on that argument, and I explained why.
b) Convenient excuse.
c) No.

Happy?

Wicked wrote:*sighs* Another instance of you avoiding my questions/accusations. Does this mean you don't think the meta is valid anymore? If you do think that the meta is still valid, then please answer my question: why are you using meta on a player that hasn't been scum before?

Oh... God...

I brought up meta after making a case on him because I decided to look into his meta to see if I could find anything that would help. The only two games I found at the time were one completed game he flipped town and another ongoing game he flipped town. I looked at them, his playstyle was vastly different to these games, so I mentioned it.

It was never a part of my case against him, but I do think the fact he is playing differently to his town meta, on top of my case, is good circumstantial evidence.

Do you actually have a problem with this, or are you just trying way too hard to discredit anything you can about my case on Hez?

Wicked wrote:I still find it odd that you would've considered lynching Empking to be the best way to determine his allignment as opposed to the real seer counterclaiming him.

Well, that way the real seer wouldn't have to out himself without a result (had Empking not been the real seer). I'm not saying I agree with MoI's plan (I didn't), but there was no scum motivation in his suggestion, and you calling it suspicious is a joke.

@Regfan,

Regfan wrote:Are you meaning to say that Wickeds efforts in pushing the Cjdrum lynch yesterday hasn't changed your opinion of Wicked in any way? If so I'd like for you to answer the following two questions.

1) What evil sheep motivation is there for pushing his partners lynch the amount that he did?
2) Do you believe that a werewolf would push a lynch knowing that it draws attention towards them during the day, the only phase in which they have issues?

1) #543
2) What? Why wouldn't a werewolf push for a lynch on someone they think is mafia to gain 'town cred'? You seem convinced he couldn't be scum because it.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #595 (isolation #38) » Sun May 29, 2011 2:52 pm

Can one of the people voting neil point to their case on him?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #611 (isolation #39) » Mon May 30, 2011 5:56 am

Don't ever change, DK. Your posts always bring a smile to my face.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #612 (isolation #40) » Mon May 30, 2011 6:01 am

@hf,

OK, as much time and effort as that must have taken you, your #600 is just a means of looking for data that supports your presupposed conclusions. You could swap any of your scum reads and town reads and still find ways to make the significance of you VCA support your conclusions.

You never did end up elaborating on your scum read on me. This was the last you wrote of it

hf wrote:I honestly do not recall the reason atm. I know as I was catching up and posting thoughts on various posts your name was one that pinged my radar more than those I get a town feel from.

Or is it just PoE for you, now?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #622 (isolation #41) » Mon May 30, 2011 4:27 pm

hf wrote:@zMM...the votecount wasn't assessed TO support my "presupposed conclusions", the assessment of the votecount DOES support my "presupposed conclusions."
What are your thoughts on the votecount as illustrated in post 601? Take away the unconfirmed red and greens I have coded red or green based on my "presupposed conclusions" and give me your take.

The problem is you say it supports your conclusions, but it would support almost any conclusion you made there...

For example, you said it's a safe bet to assume that there were one or two wolves on the cj wagon, and there's a possibility one or both his partners were bussing him. What combination of suspicions does your VCA not support here?

Assume Regfan is mafia, and tell me whether you think VCA supports this. Assume Wicked is a wolf, and tell me whether you think VCA supports this.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #624 (isolation #42) » Mon May 30, 2011 5:00 pm

Goose chase? I'm saying your entire VCA is flawed because you are using it to support your conclusions when they would support almost any conclusions could you think of. I want you to show me how your VCA supports your conclusions but doesn't support the conclusion that, say, Regfan is mafia. I'm not saying Regfan is mafia. I'm just asking you to tell me how your VCA really supports anything you've said.

Hez's suspicion of me is that I think he's scum and I don't agree with him about who scum is so I'm scum. His argument is terrible.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #625 (isolation #43) » Mon May 30, 2011 5:02 pm

Re: the VCA, to put it simply, your VCA doesn't "support" your suspicions, it just makes sense if you're right. And it would make sense with almost any other suspicions you have.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #632 (isolation #44) » Tue May 31, 2011 6:39 am

Wicked wrote:Your defense (or lack thereof) only strengthens my opinion that my argument against you is valid. If it wasn't then you would be capable of defending yourself. You are scum and you're not good at hiding it.

There's nothing to defend there because your attack has no merit.

Where is your argument for me being scum there, now that you've 'conceded' the original argument?

Wicked wrote:Can you link me to the two games please?

Talked about them here

Wicked wrote:Why do YOU disagree with the plan?

Because there was a slight possibility that werewolves would gambit and keep him alive until D2 (if they thought Emp had a low chance of hitting a werewolf).

Wicked wrote:Also, by 'a joke' do you mean suspicious?

No, I mean it's a terrible argument. Although the amount of terrible arguments you've made is suspicious.

Wicked wrote:Why have you been attacking me for lying if you don't think there is any scum motivation for it?

Because it's a lie that you were using to push a baseless point against me. The lie in itself wasn't scummy; the fact you were lying while trying to use it against me is.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #649 (isolation #45) » Tue May 31, 2011 5:45 pm

Need to clarify something:

@Regfan, Wicked, DK, MoI,

Do you think neil is a werewolf or mafia? And why?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #675 (isolation #46) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:33 pm

@Regfan,

Regfan wrote:I believe he's an evil sheep mainly due to the interactions that occured between Cjdrum and himself however ignoring their interactions I can see his play being understandable for a werewolf - that being attempting to stay out of the limelight and slide through the game.

So do you think a mafia lynch today is a good thing?

Regfan wrote:@zMuffin, do you still believe there's a linkage between Wicked and Hez. Yes or no.

Ever since I originally pointed it out, Hez has done nothing but call me (and MoI) werewolves, and Wicked has done nothing but quote things from pages back and respond to them a week later. There's nothing to increase my suspicion that there is a link between them, but I kind of expected that to happen after I pointed it out.

I think Hez is a werewolf and I do think Wicked is likely his partner. I'm much less confident in my Wicked read, though - it's mostly based on his interaction with Hez D1.

@hf

zMuffinMan wrote:Re: the VCA, to put it simply, your VCA doesn't "support" your suspicions, it just makes sense if you're right. And it would make sense with almost any other suspicions you have.

I disagree. I think it does support my suspicions. Yes...it could support other views. I do not think it is of value only if I am right (thought that would help) I think there are things that can be derived regardless of my opinion. One being the fact that Magna and DK were the only players on the Emp and Twisted wagons when they were at their peaks. Also...could you respond to this,

havingfitz wrote: @zMM...<snip> What are your thoughts on the votecount as illustrated in post 601? Take away the unconfirmed red and greens I have coded red or green based on my "presupposed conclusions" and give me your take.

My first problem with you saying it "supports" your suspicions is that you just slotted 4 scum reads into it and made your suspicions fit the VCA (you didn't actually look at possible partners or who is more likely a werewolf or mafia before your VCA).

My second problem with you saying it "supports" your suspicions is that it really doesn't support your suspicions more than anyone else's.

As for your #601, what exactly are you asking here? Do you mean #600? I thought I'd given my thoughts on your VCA.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #676 (isolation #47) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:34 pm

ebwop: quote fail

hf wrote:
zMuffinMan wrote:Re: the VCA, to put it simply, your VCA doesn't "support" your suspicions, it just makes sense if you're right. And it would make sense with almost any other suspicions you have.

I disagree. I think it does support my suspicions. Yes...it could support other views. I do not think it is of value only if I am right (thought that would help) I think there are things that can be derived regardless of my opinion. One being the fact that Magna and DK were the only players on the Emp and Twisted wagons when they were at their peaks. Also...could you respond to this,

havingfitz wrote: @zMM...<snip> What are your thoughts on the votecount as illustrated in post 601? Take away the unconfirmed red and greens I have coded red or green based on my "presupposed conclusions" and give me your take.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #678 (isolation #48) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:45 pm

Aww. You brought up NK WIFOM originally, and now you're sulking that you were framed. How cute.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #682 (isolation #49) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 12:39 am

I know you didn't say you wanted a mafia lynch. It was just a general question because you seemed pretty unsure about what you think neil is.

Who are your town-or-werewolf reads?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #683 (isolation #50) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 12:39 am

Also what do you think of Wicked's reasoning for thinking neil is mafia?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #693 (isolation #51) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:46 pm

@Wicked,

Arguing with you is funny. You say that I'm scummy for not explaining something, but you call everything a misrepresentation, an inconsistency or IIoA without explaining how it actually is one of those things and why it's scummy.

Wicked wrote:1. The 'links' you've pointed out connecting HezLucky and I revolve around very weak/invalid reasoning.
2. In response to several/most of my arguments you have dismissed them as false without explaining why.
3. On day 1, once I made it clear I was convinced in my points against you, you attacked me over something that I had said a while ago. Furthermore, you tried to, with invalid reasoning, make me look hypocritical for this attack instead of defending yourself.
4. You are guilty of a lot of IIoA and misrep.
5. You tried to use meta to support your case against a person when that player has never been scum.
6. You are guilty of several inconsistencies.

1. No. None of the links I pointed out are invalid or weak. I don't care how much 'reasoning' you think you had behind any of the votes that looked like possible chainsaws, they're still links.
2. lol
3. lol
4. no
5. Oh, got me. I must be scum.
6. no

Wicked wrote:In the game you linked, there weren't a lot of walls posted. Not a good choice for comparison. Strengthens my last point against you above.

Oh, right. All the differences in his meta are negated because there weren't a lot of spam walls. Damn.

Wicked wrote:+Scumpoints for this blatant inconsistency.

Wicked wrote:This is inconsistent with what you said earlier

lol

zMuffinMan · Post Post #696 (isolation #52) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:13 pm

Hez wrote:1. They were all invalid, weak and garbage. You were reaching so much that I could just as easily come up with links on any two players (though why I would want to is beyond me - it's scum motivated) by stretching as much as you did.
2. You don't appreciate irony, do you?
3. See #2
4. Yes. You are incredibly guilty of it.
5. So you admit that your meta argument on me is crap?
6. "Where?" would have been a better and more credible response to this.

1. Weak, maybe. Invalid, no. Go ahead and try to find links between me and anyone else; do me and MoI first. Gogo, interested in seeing the muffin-MoI relationship you found. It's not like you're doing anything else. You're certainly not making a case on anyone. What's stopping you?
2. lol
3. lol
4. lol
5. no
6. no

zMuffinMan · Post Post #697 (isolation #53) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:14 pm

ebwop: I'm not going to argue about whether my links were weak btw, you can call them weak if you want, I don't really care about arguing the strength of the links anymore. They weren't invalid, though.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #702 (isolation #54) » Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:02 am

I'm much too lazy to do a full VCA.

I really didn't disagree with many of the conclusions you came to in your VCA, I just don't agree with your suspicions.

Objectively speaking, the Empking L-1 wagon likely had 3-4 scum on it. The Twisted lynch likely had 3-4 scum on it. Looking at 2+2 or 2+1, probably not 3+1. D2 cj wagon likely had 1+1 on and 1+1 off. Maybe 2+1 on.

This doesn't go against my suspicions, but I'm not going to argue that it supports my suspicions. Hez didn't participate in either lynch. I think Hez is a werewolf and his buddy was likely on both lynches. Wicked would be my top pick for his partner. They haven't voted together at all this game. After Wicked jumped off the Emp wagon, Hez jumped on it. Wicked never went back to Emp, and Hez never went over to Twisted, even after the Emp wagon died.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #714 (isolation #55) » Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:56 pm

Hez wrote:
muffin wrote:This doesn't go against my suspicions, but I'm not going to argue that it supports my suspicions. Hez didn't participate in either lynch. I think Hez is a werewolf and his buddy was likely on both lynches. Wicked would be my top pick for his partner. They haven't voted together at all this game. After Wicked jumped off the Emp wagon, Hez jumped on it. Wicked never went back to Emp, and Hez never went over to Twisted, even after the Emp wagon died.
Your ability to make up evidence is astounding

What part of what you quoted was made up evidence?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #716 (isolation #56) » Mon Jun 06, 2011 1:52 am

Oh, cool. We get to play that game, do we? OK, all your reads on me are made up. Because I said so.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #718 (isolation #57) » Mon Jun 06, 2011 1:56 am

Indeed.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #731 (isolation #58) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 2:38 pm

Plan of action: lynch Hez.

He flips werewolf, yay.

He flips town/mafia, well, we can go from there.

Hez has been at best a weak town read if not a scum read for everyone in this game, right? Yet people are willing to delay his lynch until mylo or lylo? How does that make sense?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #734 (isolation #59) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 3:46 pm

In you did flip town/mafia, I'd look closely at MoI and hf.

But you're a werewolf, so why does that matter?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #736 (isolation #60) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 4:09 pm

What does that have to do with anything?

PoE, VCA and NK WIFOM. If you're not a werewolf, at least one of MoI or hf is a werewolf.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #739 (isolation #61) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 5:05 pm

Hez wrote:If I understand you correctly:

There is at least one werewolf in {Hez, MoI, HF}

Yes.

Hez wrote:Is there anyone in this game who you feel very confident is NOT a werewolf?

No. I don't think DK is a werewolf, I think neil is more likely to be mafia than a werewolf, I think Regfan is more likely mafia than a werewolf (although he would fit as a werewolf partner to either MoI or hf). I'm not going to bet money on being right.

Hez wrote:And you understand why we're having this discussion, right Muffin?

I thought I did before you asked this question. Now I don't. Why are we having this discussion, Hez?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #741 (isolation #62) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 6:20 pm

Well, that would require you not being a werewolf and me being MoI's partner.

So no, there's nothing that needs to be done about that.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #765 (isolation #63) » Wed Jun 08, 2011 6:29 pm

Hez wrote:Possible update: {Magna, Regfan} instead of {Magna, Muffin} as the wolves?

How do I do this? +2 town points for finally considering the possibility I'm not a werewolf, and also considering a pairing that I think is most likely if you're not a werewolf. I still think you're more likely a werewolf, though.

Hez wrote:Yet this is exactly why you are scum. You have never not once even considered that you could be wrong about anything. That's not pro-town play. You are by far the scummiest in this game.

Before the last 2 pages, I didn't see you once consider the possibility that you were wrong about MoI or I, and you still aren't considering the possibility you're wrong about MoI.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #776 (isolation #64) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:39 am

I don't agree with a neil lynch because I don't think he's a werewolf.

Hey, Hez. I'll bus my partner for you.

Unvote

VOTE: MoI

And if my partner flips town, I don't think I need to tell you who I'll be tunneling tomorrow.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #777 (isolation #65) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:41 am

How can you have a null read, 3 town reads and 3 scum reads. That is so disingenuous. Holy crap I'm liking the idea of a MoI-Regfan team more and more.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #779 (isolation #66) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:03 am

Bad feelings towards the neil wagon. Looks to be infested with werewolves.

How can you have a null read if you have 3 town reads? At least one of them should be null. Or a better explanation: your reads are contrived.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #780 (isolation #67) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:09 am

To be clear, these last couple pages make me think it's less likely Hez is a werewolf. My gut says he's scum, but my gut also says that neil wagon is werewolf-infested.

FTR, I'd be happy with a Regfan lynch today, too. For someone that's calling out neil for active lurking, you've posted what? Like once in the last week?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #803 (isolation #68) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:46 pm

Don't have time right now to respond to everything, heading out the door, but will respond to this gem quickly...

MoI wrote:Um, whut? This is just plain bad. Ostensibly Regfan who ‘knows he’s Town’ should have 3 Town reads. There are 4 Town players left in the game.

You forget that being part of the Mafia Muffin?

No, MoI. Maybe you're forgetting because you're scum.

If you have 3 town reads, by PoE you should have 4 scum reads. You can't have a null read and 3 town reads.

Will respond to more in a couple hours, but I had a chuckle at this.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #804 (isolation #69) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:56 pm

MoI wrote:Note for future reference – note how Muffin and Neil’s votes suddenly appear on me with not a bit of suspicion before their voting.

It's a choice between neil (who I don't think is a werewolf) and you (who various people have expressed suspicion of at one point or another). Hez is looking less and less like a werewolf in recent pages (yes, I'm a sucker for participation... at least he's putting effort in now, regardless of his alignment) and you are looking for more likely to be a werewolf in light of my Hez-wolf read changing. It's a very simple-to-follow thought process.

MoI wrote:note that Muffin is ‘setting up lynches’ right here

Acknowledging my most likely wolf read if you flip town is setting up lynches? Right...

OK, apparently there wasn't that much for me to respond to. I largely agree with hf's #788, although I disagree with him thinking it's impossible for someone to bus you. I've already admitted I'm bussing MoI, so yeah...

zMuffinMan · Post Post #806 (isolation #70) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:51 am

Wow, MoI is a double-voter and a werewolf!

zMuffinMan · Post Post #814 (isolation #71) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:49 am

Regfan wrote:By PoE Deity would be a scum-read however I don't see him being an evilsheep and am having difficulty finding a potential werewolf partner for him thus the placement of the read in 'null'.

Right, but then if you think there's a possibility you're wrong about him being scum, then which if your town reads would be scum instead of him and why aren't you null (or at best null-leaning-town) on them?

Regfan wrote:This is a complete misrepresentation of what is actually the case, although my activity may have dropped recently due to university commitments I've let me thoughts and reads openely known which is what Neil has avoided doing whenever possible.

I know there's more to the reasons you think neil is scum, but this...

Regfan wrote:Neil's V/LA has been over for quite some time now and he continues to avoid presenting any real content or information that even slightly ressembles scumhunting, it reads as if he's attempting to lurk his way out of the lynch.

is hypocritical.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #819 (isolation #72) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:58 am

MoI wrote:I can't wait to see Muffin's "explanation' of how he was bussing me.

What explanation? Anyone who takes what I was saying seriously is brain-dead.

Regfan wrote:This is the issue, I haven't a clue which of my town-reads I'm incorrect about.

Then wouldn't itbe simpler to assume DK is scum?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #836 (isolation #73) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:21 pm

Yo. Hez. Wanna kill Regfan without making a case on him? Just 'coz. You know that would make him mad, and you know he's gonna flip wolf.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #838 (isolation #74) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:30 pm

I'm sorry, what? I wasn't voting in my last post. Unlike you. You've already decided for sure that neil is a werewolf. Ah, durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

What evaluation? I thought neil was mafia yesterday, his claim doesn't increase or decrease my suspicion of this.

But yeah, you'd be pretty mad if you got lynched for no reason, and that's good enough for me.

VOTE: Regfan

Sweeeeeeeeeeeet Regfan anger.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #841 (isolation #75) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:40 pm

Regfan wrote:There's literally no difference between voting yourself and asking someone else to vote, asking someone else to vote leads to a potention blitz which is the only reason you would refrain from voting yourself.

I was suggesting it to Hez to get a reaction.

You are already voting for neil without considering the possibility that he really is mafia.

Yet no town player would vote so hastily in a position like this, right?

AH, DURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

1+1 = 2

Regfan wrote:You jumped onto MoI the second you have an opportunity at his lynch and saving Neil, the fact that you and Neil are scum together is blatantly obvious.

I jumped on the MoI wagon because my read on Hez changed and my read on neil was mafia. There's nothing else to it, but sure, read into it and attempt to paint me as scum all you want.

Regfan wrote:So lets get this right, you're attempting to vote in lylo out of spite and to annoy someone

Yerp.

Regfan wrote:that contradicts with your entire playstyle throughout the entire game thus far where you've attempted to defend your thoughts with logic.

I don't think you quite have a grasp of what my playstyle really is.

All my decisions are gut-based. I sometimes pretend to make cases against people to appease people who like reading cases, but really, it's all gut.

Regfan wrote:In essence you're unable to fake reasons as to why you believe I'm scum and instead are hoping that Deity makes the stupid mistake of blitzing with you and Neil to give you the win tonight.

Pfft. You give me no credit if you think I couldn't fake reasons if I were scum.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #843 (isolation #76) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:52 pm

OK, going back over this quote,

Regfan wrote:hoping that Deity makes the stupid mistake of blitzing with you and Neil to give you the win tonight.

So just going to do some PoE here.

Regfan thinks neil and I are werewolves.

Regfan's perspective of reads:

town: Regfan
wolf: neil, zmuffinman
other: DK, hf, Hez

Now, Regfan says that I am hoping DK makes the stupid mistake of blitzing you, Regfan. If DK were mafia, he would know neil is a werewolf (or mafia with him). And since you think neil and I are werewolves, you cannot think DK is mafia. Therefore DK is your other town read.

So your reads are:

town: Regfan, DK
wolf: neil, zmuffinman
mafia: hf, Hez

Is this correct, Regfan?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #844 (isolation #77) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:54 pm

Wait, did you really just link to 1078, where I last-second swapped bandwagons D2 based on getting a gut read on you as town, after I'd been tunneling you all day?

Not sure how that contradicts my statement about my playstyle.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #846 (isolation #78) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:10 pm

Regfan wrote:The fact you changed reads in that game is irrelevant we had hour long discussions about our reads in that game and how you were incorrect on your assumptions that you were jumping to, all your votes were placed with massive degrees of questioning and uncertainty which is the complete opposite of this game right.

Regfan, you're looking at a single example of a game I played as town where I still made gut-based decisions. There was no logical move from you being a scum read to you being a town read. With the post where you claimed and some other posts around that time, I got a gut read on you as town (even though I clearly acknowledged it's exactly what I thought you would do as scum). I then made a gut-based decision and went with Trouble.

Check out any of my other town games. Take the recently finished O307, for example, where I was lynched D1 because of my gut reads (where I got a gut read on DK town, a gut read that there were 2 scum on the wagon, gut town reads on chkflip, cjdrum, etc).

Really only clarifying this for anyone who's reading your bullshit. I don't care whether you personally change your mind about me.

PS: Nice slip on hf, there. Wolf read. loled

Do explain how could you possibly be blitzed by either Hez or DK if 1 of them knows neil is lying and hf also knows neil is lying. From your perspective, hf and at least one of DK and Hez must want neil lynched, right? That's 3 there. There can be no majority.

You cannot possibly be blitzed if you're right in your reads, Regfan. That was an obvious slip because you're not town.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #847 (isolation #79) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:16 pm

btw what's your argument for werewolves being more likely to target mafia last night? I'm not seeing it.

All werewolves need to do is avoid getting lynched today. The fact you're using NK WIFOM to suggest that you can't be a werewolf is hilarious, really.

If either town or mafia is lynched today, werewolves win (and nothing can prevent this). If a werewolf is lynched today, regardless of the night kill, all the remaining werewolf needs to do is not get lynched again and he wins as long as he kills one mafia either tonight or tomorrow night. So not seeing how Regfan-wolf wouldn't kill Wicked, especially if he were planning to use the absurd NK WIFOM argument to reason that he can't be a wolf.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #848 (isolation #80) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:18 pm

Oh, and FTR, I clearly stated that I didn't think Wicked was mafia all yesterday (I didn't see him as mafia with cj), and my read on Wicked was based on Hez being a werewolf.

Framing attempt noted. You should have paid closer attention to what I was saying yesterday.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #852 (isolation #81) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:30 pm

Oh. Either way, the rest of what I said makes sense.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #856 (isolation #82) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:38 pm

Wait, so if you're an evil sheep, why did you think I'd need to make up a case on you being scum? You're scum, so what evidence would I need to fake?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #857 (isolation #83) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:40 pm

Meh,

Unvote

.

I'm not in any rush. Will read this thread from the perspective he's mafia.

In the mean time, why did you slot hf into a wolf(mafia) read, Regfan?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #858 (isolation #84) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:42 pm

Actually.

No lynch isn't a bad idea now.

We have 2 evil sheep claims.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #859 (isolation #85) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:42 pm

(Hint: Wolves must kill an evil sheep if we no lynch)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #860 (isolation #86) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:43 pm

VOTE: No lynch

zMuffinMan · Post Post #862 (isolation #87) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:53 pm

I'm not playing to your win condition, and I don't care whether no lynch benefits you. It benefits town. Stop squirming.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #867 (isolation #88) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 3:06 pm

@Hez,

Actually, I didn't even consider that... I see your point, but I don't think that's worse than the current situation. As it stands, we need to kill a werewolf with the next lynch, werewolves need to kill mafia with their next NK, and we need to kill a wolf with the following lynch.

Unvote

I need to do some thinking

zMuffinMan · Post Post #869 (isolation #89) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 3:11 pm

No lynching isn't good for the wolves either. It just forces their hand.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #870 (isolation #90) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 3:19 pm

I need to read neil, Regfan and cj in ISO again.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #872 (isolation #91) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 3:38 pm

He

did

claim mafia...

zMuffinMan · Post Post #878 (isolation #92) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 3:59 pm

lol Regfan,

That's really, really dirty.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #880 (isolation #93) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 4:09 pm

OK. Even if we lynch correctly today, optimal werewolf play is not to kill to force a draw or a mafia lynch. And then it's just as likely to go to 1-1-1 as if we no lynch today. This just supports the idea of no lynching more to me, unless we're able to just call it a draw. Which I would prefer doing at this point, because not lynching today also just made me realise the possibility of wolves choosing to go for someone they think is town tonight. Forcing a 2mafia-2wolf-1town loss for town tomorrow.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #882 (isolation #94) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 4:17 pm

What are the rules on draws in these games, btw? Can they be agreed on?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #885 (isolation #95) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 4:39 pm

Can we agree to a draw? Or does the draw have to be played out?

Also not sure how mafia and werewolves could ever draw outside of agreeing to it. They can never achieve their wincon simultaneously...

zMuffinMan · Post Post #889 (isolation #96) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 5:18 pm

Regfan, just want to draw this? No lynch, you kill a townie, we lynch the remaining townie tomorrow, game over, no risks? Yes, it's fairly fking obvious that I'm mafia with neil, and Regfan is a werewolf (with hf I'd guess). This is optimal play for both our factions, and better than taking a loss.

VOTE: No Lynch

zMuffinMan · Post Post #891 (isolation #97) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:47 am

Oh well. Gg.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #894 (isolation #98) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:35 am

You're very bad. The game is over with a neil lynch, but town loses either way, so it's not like voting for Regfan is going to help your win con either.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #895 (isolation #99) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:35 am

That was @ Hez. But whatever, gg.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #899 (isolation #100) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:45 am

Well, it was always going to be a town loss, Hez, and Regfan was obviously a werewolf. The plan he proposed at the top of this page was for hf (#876) which is why I called it dirty.

It essentially meant that no matter what town did it was always going to end up as 1-1-1. I just got bored and proposed a draw but meh.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #900 (isolation #101) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:47 am

Also I originally intended for it to be a 3-way draw which is what I was asking about. But Umbrage said no, so meh

zMuffinMan · Post Post #903 (isolation #102) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 5:05 am

Nothing really in ours

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/RVRyRnSdRCj

zMuffinMan · Post Post #908 (isolation #103) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:03 am

What was the issue with claiming mafia, anyway? It was still playing to our win-con (specifically, trying to get a werewolf lynched today). There was no other real way to defend against neil's lynch than for him to claim.

Also not sure how the Wicked NK meant Regfan couldn't be a wolf. To me, Wicked NK was fairly obvious - he was the most pro-town player, and all the wolves needed to do was kill off neil to win (which they did). Wicked kill made perfect sense.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #915 (isolation #104) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:01 am

Actually, the scum claim didn't mean we had no chance of winning alone.

Best case scenario for the remaining wolf was to take it to 1-1-1 and hope to win via popularity contest.

But you're overreacting because claiming scum was the smartest play. There was no way in hell VI-DK was going to vote anyone but neil, and there was no way neil could properly defend himself because he was so obviously scum, if not by his scummy actions, then simply by PoE. Screwing your faction over means little to me when everyone loses if neil is lynched, so claiming scum and forcing the issue was the smartest play for us, and was playing to our win-con (or more specifically, to our not-lose-con).

zMuffinMan · Post Post #920 (isolation #105) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:22 am

Regfan wrote:If the absolute best case scenario for in doing something is to take it down to a 1-1-1 popularity contest then it's not optimal play. Neil still had the ability to attempt to convince them via using logic, persuasion and multiple other techniques which he didn't even attempt to do once, he instantly open claimed instead so sure I may have got screwed from it but I believing it should be against the rules to act in a manner like that.

Why?

Playing not to lose is better than losing. No matter how much you try to persuade DK, he was never going to change his mind. You and hf were obviously always going to vote neil. That leaves convincing Hez, who already voted neil at the start of the day, and pretty clearly had it in mind that neil was a werewolf. Better to just claim honestly and try to redirect the kill to the real werewolves.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #922 (isolation #106) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:38 am

My main objective in any game is not to lose, regardless of my alignment. Winning solo is my second priority, but it just so happens that a majority of the games I've played, both of these priorities coincide.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #935 (isolation #107) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:57 pm

No, hf, that's why your ideal play (if Regfan was lynched) was to not NK. Then town would have been forced to lynch mafia, and you could kill a townie, making it 1-1-1. Then we'd have the option of drawing or playing for a popularity contest.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #938 (isolation #108) » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:35 am

So my ideal play was to go into the next day alone (1) against 2 mafia and 2 town? That doesn't sound too ideal to me. Maybe (BIG maybe) before we knew you were neil's partner but not afterwards.

If it's 2 mafia 2 town and 1 wolf, who does town need to lynch? Mafia. The 2 townies aren't going to be concerned with finding you, they need to kill mafia (and so do you). It then goes into night 2:1:1 and you kill someone, and either go into next day 2:1 against 2 townies, or 1:1:1. 1:1:1 guarantees you can't lose, 2:1 means you have a chance of a solo win if you could make DK or Hez vote for each other, which isn't all too likely.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #940 (isolation #109) » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:49 am

Well, I mean. That's what would have been your best option if Regfan had been lynched. Obv your best choice was to get neil lynched, which happened, but yeah...

zMuffinMan · Post Post #942 (isolation #110) » Tue Jun 14, 2011 6:23 am

Well, DK is VI, so that was the case against him.

Empking was just an annoyance as far as I could tell. I honestly wouldn't have thought he was scummy even if I was town.

Hez's case was mostly pushed by me, but his D1 and D2 play was pretty scummy, I really did think he was a werewolf for all of D2.

And MoI was just Hez followed by 3 scum and 1 VI sheeping. So, yeah.