Mini 1166: Town Hall Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Fishythefish]

/confirm

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: sab

[Fishythefish]

If you're new, be sure to read the rules in the first post - they may not be what you are used to. Also, don't gambit unless you have a really, really good reason.

Sab's 17 is rather horrible. Throwing role WIFOM into the pot to defend against a mostly random vote is unnecessary, and his reason for voting is actively bad.

[Fishythefish]

I knew it was a random vote, but I was just trying to make a statement. My vote was random, and it was justified when EmpTyger didn't mention about it.

What I find weird is that you brought the possibility of you being a PR up - not something any townie wants to do (regardless of role), for a really throwaway reason. It doesn't seem natural.

How did Emp not mentioning your vote justify it?

[Fishythefish]

Hm. Okay. 

Unvote: th3kuzinator. Vote: Rhinox

 

Why?

[Fishythefish]

@Cworl & FtF: What's your read on rhinox based on 59?

Nothing much. Question to iam feels slightly like he's testing the water on you - I don't see why he'd ask iam rather than just make the point himself.

kuz:

Why you both are assuming malicious intent behind the question is beyond me.

Well, why *shouldn't* they assume malicious intent? This is a game of mafia, after all.
And why should "it's my playstyle" give you carte blanche to do whatever-you-want?

I don't like this much, particularly in the context of kuz being under attack. The first sentence is just nonsense - of course everyone should assume the

possibility

of malicious intent, but assuming malicious intent to make your case is arguing from your conclusions. For the second, I don't see where kuz has remotely used his playstyle to explain or excuse anything. Both of these sound good, but really don't contain any reasons for thinking kuz is scum, which for me makes them very scummy arguments. In fact,

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Emp

kuz's trying to undermine a townread is definitely scummy.

[Fishythefish]

In my last post, I thought that Emp's "using your playstyle as an excuse" comment on kuz was based on a completely different post from the one it was. Reading the real post it was based on, it's a decent point; kuz's aggression isn't really relevant to him undermining a town read. Sorry about that.

For the other bit of the Emp post I disliked, I think it's pretty clear what kuz meant when he asked "why do you assume malicious intent?". There is a null explanation for asking about the site meta (viz he wanted to know about the site meta because he's new), and he was asking why people were assuming the scummy explanation (he wanted to know about the site meta because he is mafia wanting to know what he can get away with) was the correct one. Jumping on that with "this is mafia, of course people assume malicious intent" is a bad argument for me. However,
UNVOTE:

@Fishy, Kuz's actions feel scummy yet you're not voting kuz. Why does Emp's post feel scummier than kuz's?

Emp is scummy because he's jumping on the popular BW - and at this point quite likely the actual lynch - based on a couple of pretty poor points. kuz is heavily under attack (L-1, even?), with IMO one decent point against him (ie. undermining an early town read. For me, this is scummy because town have no real reason to do it). I'm not sure which I find scummier, but I am sure which needs my vote more.

@Rhinox re "testing the waters": thanks for that explanation.

ThAd's last paragraph of the above post is bizarrely wrong. Seems to say you should never call people out for buddying, which seems to me to be a fine way to catch scum. It's an absurd generalisation, and it feels like he's twisted himself in circles trying to justify his point. I also dislike him saying that he put kuz at L-1 for pressure, and then to call it scummy that kuz hasn't claimed - if he thinks claiming is a natural part of putting someone at L-1, then that must have been part of his reason for doing so. And if he really did want a claim at this stage of the game, based on the evidence we have, that is massively scummy. Incidentally,

kuz shouldn't claim

.

VOTE: ThAd

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:
Why are you only considering cases where kuz is innocent?
And, why, of all those who've suspected kuz, are you giving Rhinox a pass?

1) I'm not. Not at all.
2) Because he hasn't suspected kuz in a way I find scummy.

[Fishythefish]

@ThAd:
1) If kuz is town, I think you and to a lesser extent EmpTyger are likely scum.
2) If kuz is scum, that's not the case.
So when I make that case, it's going to sound like I'm assuming kuz is town. But all that I'm really assuming is that there's enough chance of kuz being town that trying to get him lynched in bad ways is scummy. Which is true for everyone in the game.

[Fishythefish]

Is disappearing really a scumtell? I'm not convinced that scum under pressure are more likely to stop posting than town under pressure.

@MK: quite a lot has happened - who do you think is scum?

Somehow I missed this response to me:

I tend to think of buddying as somewhat more sophisticated than what you are implying. To me buddying is stuff like agreeing with someone's reads, defending them against attacks, copying their cases,

as well as

calling them town.

1) OK. The point I was criticising (from 86, that town reads shouldn't be questioned) is still absurd to the point where I doubt you could believe it.
2) On the other point, you seem to be saying both of the following:
- The main point of wagons at this stage is pressure, and you put kuz at L-1 to put him under pressure.
- It's scummy that kuz hasn't claimed at L-1.
Did you think kuz would claim when you put him at L-1? Did you want him to?

[Fishythefish]

Seems to me there's a pretty blatant contradiction between you saying he's scummy for not claiming at L-1, and you saying you weren't thinking about claims when putting him there. If you think that being at L-1 is a good reason for claiming, you don't put someone there without wanting them to claim.

[Fishythefish]

I think a lot of people- on both sides of the argument- are missing the point.
The issue is not what the correct reaction in an abstract lynch-1 situation.
The issue is how *kuz* reacted in *this game*.

Actually, for what I'm saying here kuz's reaction isn't relevant. I'm saying that I can't see town ThAd believing what he says about L-1 and claiming, but not thinking about claims before putting someone at L-1.

Looking at kuz's reaction here, he posted to argue a point (on which he was wrong), called his wagon "so freaking scummy", and then hasn't posted again. Can someone explain how any of that's a scumtell? Flaking is something that happens, and it happens more when people are under pressure. I don't see that that's any more true for scum than town.

[Fishythefish]

Looking at kuz's reaction here, he posted to argue a point (on which he was wrong), called his wagon "so freaking scummy", and then hasn't posted again. Can someone explain how any of that's a scumtell?

Well, calling his entire wagon "so freaking scummy" instead of trying to identify the particular individuals on the wagon who are scum strikes me as pretty scummy.

For the people voting ThAdmiral, I want to note that I was recently in a game with him where he was town, and he hammered two players within the first eight pages of the game without waiting or even asking for a claim, and I would like to know if this information has any effect on your reads here.

Well, he only called his whole wagon scummy after arguing with every individual player on it. He had an issue for every reason that people were voting him; from there, calling your wagon scummy is on a tiny OMGUS step away.

That information definitely sounds relevant; someone who hammers early without waiting is just the kind of person who would put someone to L-1 without thinking about the consequences (ie. reckless and antitown). Link please?

I've played with ThAd before, and my vague impression isn't recklessness of this sort. I must check that meta out some time.

[Fishythefish]

Sorry, I haven't been around much this weekend.

C-Worl's reason for voting ThAd is pretty bad. However, it doesn't look particularly scummy to me - I can't see scum just admitting they don't really have a reason to hop on a bandwagon.

[Fishythefish]

@C-Worl: You seem to think it's a scumtell that Archaist forgot that iamau had explained (via you) his reason for thinking you were town, and that he then iso'd iamau to find it. That is totally absurd.

Archaist's catch up is very much centred on him (but then again, the game mostly also has been). He says he can't really see enough in this game to vote. That's not good - I think there's plenty in this game to get some sort of a read on someone - but neither is it particularly scummy. If scum purposefully do nothing, they tend not to want to admit it. This slot still seems to me only marginally scummy, and I'm still not very interested in lynching it.

[Fishythefish]

Right, time to get a grip on this game.

Mitsuru doesn't look good to me. His posting on kuz is ok - saying he doesn't want to hammer him, and with fairly good reasons - but there's really not much else there. He sort of threatens to go for ThAd, while saying he wants reactions before he does anything, but since then he hasn't mentioned him.

Sab's looking fine to me since my early dislike of him. Decent points, nothing bad there.

Emp is someone I've not really liked on the kuz wagon. He pushed it when it was going fast with some pretty weak reasoning, and all in all really I feel he's trying to get kuz's lynch disproportionately hard to his case on kuz. Without even voting him.

kuz I thought did exactly one scummy thing - jumping on a townread which he had no particular reason to dispute, which I think is something scum tend to do a bit more. And that's not even

that

scummy. Flaking is just not a scumtell, and nor is being defensive. Archaist didn't do much except poke at the kuz wagon up until his last post, which I don't like. It's notable that all the people attacking Arch are listed as scummy - 2 IMO for pretty poor reasons (iam for being sure of himself, C-Worl for being impatient), and that noone else is. Feels like he's trying to fight his wagon, not work out who's scum.

ThAd I'm struggling with. He put kuz to L-1, then later criticised him for not claiming there - this still seems bizarre to me from a townie, but with the "hammers recklessly" meta (which I haven't read) I suppose it has to go in the "I wish this wasn't null but it is" column. His votes are rather sheepy, but not in a way I dislike - he's been pretty open about when and who he's sheeping. I think I'll
UNVOTE:

C-Worl looks bad. A few times he's pushed a wagon in a way that's pretty blatantly unfair. His latest "not reading" points on Archaist are obvious BS. Saying that kuz didn't claim in order to make up a good fakeclaim similarly - there was no reason for kuz to claim, and picking an important PR to claim isn't exactly rocket science in a Mini Normal. kuz really never played the newbie card at all - he called himself "some new guy", but it wasn't terribly relevant to the argument, and attacking him for that looks like C-Worl wants an attack to make more than like he's thinking about who's scum. As ever, pushing a wagon too hard for bad reasons can come from over-aggressive town rather than from scum.

iam looks OK here. He's pushing kuz/Arch hard, and I'm not sure where that certainty comes from.

Rhinox I'll think about in a little while, and then I'll vote.

[Fishythefish]

Rhinox's posting is sensible without really committing him to anything. How do you feel about our current wagons, Rhinox?

kuz's wagon isn't massively convincing. The slot's been a bit scummy, but two people (Emp and C-Worl) have been pushing it hard for reasons I dislike.

I think I'm going to

VOTE: MK

For not really doing much of anything while things happen, even though he's been around. Who's scum, MK?

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:
Could you be more specific about what haven't you liked about me regarding kuz?

Sure. At one point, you added a couple of points about kuz without voting for him again. One was the rather odd line of "Why shouldn't people assume malicious intent - it's a game of mafia?" - which is a reason to say that absolutely anything is scummy. This seems to be prodding kuz's wagon while adding nothing at all. Then you joined the "not claiming at L-1 is scummy" chorus, when noone had asked kuz to claim and there was no protown reason for doing so. Your sole argument for this seems to be that kuz isn't a newbie to mafia, and therefore his site must have a meta of "claim at L-1" - which even

this

site only arguably has (I certainly wouldn't have claimed in kuz's position, and I'm sure I'm not alone there). You seem to be pushing kuz's wagon pretty hard for pretty weak reasons.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:
What is your theory to explain kuz's behavior?

I don't see much to explain. He got very defensive about his wagon, and then flaked. These are both things people do.

[quote="ET"}

Your sole argument for this seems to be that kuz isn't a newbie to mafia, and therefore his site must have a meta of "claim at L-1" - which even this site only arguably has (I certainly wouldn't have claimed in kuz's position, and I'm sure I'm not alone there).

That's not my point at all, so let me clarify. It's not that kuz should have (or shouldn't have) claimed at lynch-1.

This is a player who claims that he is "known throughout [his site] for doing town gambits", on a site which "champions the 'townies never lie' type schpiel".

If he's heard of the terms "chainsaw defense" and he's familiar enough with LAL to refer to it only by its initials, I can't believe that he hasn't been exposed to, at the bare minimum, claim at lynch-1.

So the point isn't what the proper thing to do is at lynch-1 is.
The point is, why didn't kuz react to being at lynch-1?
Because I cannot in any way believe that a player who again is "known throughout [his site] for doing town gambits", on a site which "champions the 'townies never lie' type schpiel" is so unfamiliar with being bandwagoned to lynch-1 that too many players in this game are labeling him a newbie over it.[/quote]
Hmmm... that makes a bit more sense. Reacting in some way to being at L-1 is much more something you'd expect to be in a meta than claiming at L-1. I still don't see how it is more likely that scum would fail to react at L-1.

As I've already explained, this is directly in response to kuz's saying that we "shouldn't assume malicious intent". Ignoring my motivation, are you interpreting kuz as saying that absolutely nothing is scummy?

No. IIRC (strapped for time right now, but pretty sure I RC) I interpreted kuz as saying that if he gives you a non-scummy explanation for his behaviour, you should take that into account.

But yes, I was putting pressure on kuz, even if I wasn't voting him. Because I have 2 possible theories as to his alignment, and I wanted to narrow that down. That's not suspicious. And, if it is... what did you mean, then, with your last sentence in [74]?

The not voting thing isn't really important, actually. But I feel you've been trying to get kuz lynched based on not very much evidence.

That's all rather off the top of my head, and I'll read posts and see whether I still feel this way soon.

[Fishythefish]

@EMP: your posting on kuz:

kuz:

Why you both are assuming malicious intent behind the question is beyond me.

Well, why *shouldn't* they assume malicious intent? This is a game of mafia, after all.
And why should "it's my playstyle" give you carte blanche to do whatever-you-want?

kuz:
At this site of yours, they know all about such terms as "LAL" and "chainsaw defending", but they don't cover something as basic as a claim at lynch-1?

I'm ready to shift my vote back to you.

Tis cool though. I'll just wait to see who comes to chainsaw you.

From the beginning, kuz is *expecting* to get attacked. His "defensiveness" starts before the bandwagon- it's not a reaction to it. In fact, once the bandwagon against him starts, the opposite happens: he underreacts, if anything.

I don't think kuz is an innocent newbie. I think he's either guilty or he's trying some kind of stupid gambit.

I think a lot of people- on both sides of the argument- are missing the point.
The issue is not what the correct reaction in an abstract lynch-1 situation.
The issue is how *kuz* reacted in *this game*.

Don't just narrowly look at the single reaction. Compare that to how kuz has acted elsewhere in the game. Kuz had absolutely no problem responding to C-Worl's initial accusation. He's talking about LAL and chainsawing. He is not a newbie. Let me repeat that:

Kuz is not a newbie. Stop shielding him with that excuse.

(The only way I'll believe he's a newbie is if he's mafia, and his partner overstuffed his ears with too much advice.)

I'm very tempted to give up on Rhinox and give kuz a 24 hour post-or-be-voted ultimatum. Let's see how I feel tomorrow.

These don't read to me like someone trying to decide about kuz's alignment. In all of these you seem to have totally made up you mind about the reasons for kuz's behaviour - when you ask him questions, they are leading enough to be functionally rhetorical. I feel these aren't "questioning kuz to work out his alignment", they are "pushing for kuz's lynch" - and that the points in them are really pretty weak.

[Fishythefish]

@Fishythefish: Do you think you have a better case on EmpTyger (#204) than Mitsuru Kirijo (#170)? Since your vote on #170 MK explained himself, but your vote stayed there despite your points against EmpTyger.

My case on Emp is rather tempered by the fact that for reasons I don't really understand, I don't think he's actually scum. As for MK, I still don't see much I like there. His townread on kuz seems rather a stretch - basing your townread on someone on the theoretical advice of his partners in their theoretical daytalk seems a bit off. Why do you assume the scum have daytalk, MK? His reasons for suspecting ThAd - pretty much just "wagon hopping" don't really convince me, and the statement that iam is scummy just because ThAd quoted him when voting just doesn't seem like something that I'd ever think.

I'm currently pretty torn between the other two wagons. I'll decide between them if I have to, but I think MK is a better way to go.

[Fishythefish]

My reason for my suspicions is based on us drawing ever faster to deadline. And instead of going for a wagon that appeared it might go somewhere both went to smaller wagons. My belief is they want a No Lynch but don't want it to look like they want a No Lynch.

Hmmm? It seems the only wagon that qualifies for you as one that might appear to go somewhere is the Archaist wagon - so really here you're pushing that lynch under the guise of trying to get a lynch. And that you are ignoring other people on small wagons - why name Emp and MK over Sab, Rhinox and myself?

[Fishythefish]

Wait what? Isn't it 36 hours from now?

Yes. My bad.

[Fishythefish]

UNVOTE: VOTE: ThAd

Currently feel better about this than the Arch wagon - the amount of pressure there's been on him over relatively little just stinks. We need a lynch, so it's time to vote for one of these two people.

[Fishythefish]

Reason I'm excluding MK and C-Worl here, excellent choices though they are: there just aren't enough people who have been thinking about and going after them to get a lynch on them today.

[Fishythefish]

6 hours until deadline, hammer needed, not a terrible lynch. No-brainer.

unvote, vote Archaist

[Fishythefish]

I won't be very active until Monday or Tuesday. See you then.

I won't be issuing any prods until then anyway, so you're fine.

[Fishythefish]

Sorry, weekend busier than expected. This is a prod dodge - content later today.

[Fishythefish]

iam is very likely town for going after Archaist so hard - very few scumbags bus their only partner to that extent. Even Rhinox is fairly unlikely for that reason - with the wagons tied at 3-3 there's no reason scumRhinox had to jump to Archaist, and doing so made his partner rather likely to die (because someone is going to hammer an L-1 wagon out of principle). C-Worl kill is also pretty solid logic. ThAd gets some points from attacking Arch, and many many more for being the main counterwagon - he's town.

That leaves sAb and Emp. I thought Emp was pretty scummy yesterday in relation to kuz/Arch's wagon - he pushed the wagon pretty hard without ever getting on it. Unless I read that really wrong, it's not likely scum-scum; really felt like Emp was up for that lynch. For scumEmp, just doesn't do the job of either distancing or helping his partner. Although if Emp is town, I'm very surprised he wasn't on the Arch wagon by the end of the day, given his previous behaviour.

sAb has pretty much zero interaction with Arch, which is surprising given the starring role Arch played in day 1. I agree that 254 would be an odd post for a buddy. Although I feel my 255 would be, as well.

So, the only major fault in iama's PoE is that it's wrong. Pretty sure the scum is sAb or Emp, but right now I don't know which. I'll read some more and cast a vote soon.

[Fishythefish]

I am obvtown after yesterday, so killing me would not implicate Rhinox in any way. I have demonstrated a stubborn refusal to let go of my top suspect, and the ability to get them lynched. Rhinox would have every reason to believe that a) I would come into this day after his blood, and b) I have the power to exert my will upon this town. No way he kills anyone but me.

This is creating WIFOM if you're trying to explain why you weren't killed.

*Bangs his head against the wall*

I don't think I need to explain why ThAd is town.

Actually could you explain it to me?


My initial thoughts right now are leaning towards fishy. I noticed that when kuz/Arch was gathering votes, fishy tried to both defend and distance himself. He stated that there was one thing kuz did that was scummy, which was jumping on a townread. His defense was that people were seeing flaking as a scumtell, which he claimed that and being defensive was not a scumtell. I don't remember people explaining that there vote on kuz was because he was flaking, except for emp's ultimatum way back in post 111.

Meh - I disagreed with some points of kuz/Arch and agreed with others. Put on the right goggles, and that becomes defending/distancing from him. Have you got any more reason than that to think it was defending/distancing rather than my honest opinion?

On the "defence" part - I don't think either of those things were scumtells, and couldn't find another point against kuz. As for people not voting kuz because he was flaking, I refer you to the thread. In particular, posts 86, 96, 97, 98, 111, 124. Mostly ThAd, but iam Q's him for T, and C-Worl gives qualified agreement.

How would

you

summarise the case against kuz at this point (169)? I think "undermining a townread, being overdefensive, flaking" covers it very nicely. I agreed with one of the three (plus disliked Arch's last post), and so I said so.

[Fishythefish]

Emp is probably town. I get a gut town read on his posting. Particularly when I was going after him yesterday - really felt like he was trying to explain himself rather than just fight my case.

VOTE: sAb

I'm

V/LA

this weekend, from Friday until Monday. Don't know if I'll have internet or not. Right now, I'm looking very likely to be lynched (iam is confirmed town and assertive and wants me dead; Emp is happy to go along; sAb is leaning that way), and I'm thinking the most likely way for us to lose is a stupid quickhammer, particularly while I'm away. So I'm going to claim:

I'm a vig

. I killed MK last night. I thought he was scum, and more so when Arch flipped scum. Reasons to believe me (after I fail to get counterclaimed):
1. 6/2/1 is horrible for the town; they can very easily not have the majority day 2. You just wouldn't run it.
2. When Arch flipped scum, we were always going to be short on suspects today, and I was always going to be among them. Killing MK would be madness.
3. Scum will probably shoot me tonight anyway.
4. This is always a bad start to a sentence, but even if I

was

a SK, lynching me today would be neutral. You'd get 1 chance to catch the scum; may as well use that today, and lynch me if someone flips scum and the day doesn't end.

[Fishythefish]

Why ThAd? I think his major attacking of Arch, plus being the main counterwagon for most of the day, makes him very unlikely scum.

[Fishythefish]

@iam: your point is well taken. Neither arc nor kuz ever jumped on the ThAd bandwagon, making it much more likely he's scum. I suppose with 2-man scumteams it's not so true that there'll almost always be at least one townie BW. Still, ThAd's play on kuz/Arch makes me think he's less likely scum than sAb - I think you're putting much too much weight on sAb saying "that's not a hammer".

Fishy:

(because someone is going to hammer an L-1 wagon out of principle).

...and what if that wagon is misrepresented as not being a lynch-1 wagon?

Well, if they were convinced that it was a lynch already of course they wouldn't hammer. But this relies on Rhinox thinking everyone is silly enough to believe that without even checking, which seems implausible.

I'm V/LA - this is my last post until Monday night.

UNVOTE:

Not ready for a lynch yet.

[Fishythefish]

Vote: Rhinox

- no reason to wait, with everyone else checked in. 


Fishy:

Well, if they were convinced that it was a lynch already of course they wouldn't hammer. But this relies on Rhinox thinking everyone is silly enough to believe that without even checking, which seems implausible.

You do realize that, as implausible as it may be, that's what Rhinox had to believe for his *claimed* plan to work?

Has Rhinox claimed he had a plan, rather than just made a mistake?

Disliking ThAd's 304. It's a bad post attacking a player who just voted him. That stinks.

@sab: what do you think of Rhinox?

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:

Just for fun, what's your explanation for that fake lynching vote?

I've seen times where a player who thinks he is hammered reacts as town / as scum and the town gets a big clue into his alignment without actually hammering. Thats what I was going for.

Honestly, I do see where ThAd is coming from in [304], and I think ThAd's reaction is reasonable.  But as much as I don't get why iama is bending over backwards to consider anyone and everyone except Rhinox, I disagree with ThAd that iama is a possible suspect.  I just don't see why iama as mafia would have revealed that catch about Archaist right before deadline.  I'll still reread ThAd in full, when I get a chance.

Hmmm... that is weird from Rhinox. Fake hammering there is pretty dangerous - if it works at all, it's more likely to do harm than good. Why weren't you concerned about the possibility of a no lynch, Rhinox?

ThAd makes two points in 304. The first is pretty meh - iam said he went after his suspect and got him lynched yesterday. He didn't say noone else played a part, and I don't think he really exaggerated. In context, he's saying that Rhinox would have killed him because he went ater Arch hard

and linked him to Rhinox

, which is perfectly sensible. The second is pretty awful - iam settled on me by PoE, but my claim blew that out of the water. So iam had to to a U-turn on a town read, and doing so isn't surprising or scummy. It bothers me that Rhinox pointed this out, and ThAd replied to my statement about 304 by just repeating that iam had been inconsistent.

[Fishythefish]

Ah, somehow missed that. I guess I can see where you're coming from on that one.

At the moment I've got a lot of individual thoughts about people, but they're not really adding up to coherent reads in lots of cases. I'll sort that out this evening, and vote for someone.

[Fishythefish]

^ not clear. You and Sab are currently the shortlist, but I'm not even 100% sure about that.

[Fishythefish]

(Plus, I'm actually betting the remaining scum is a roleblocker, to counter the doc/vig epic combo.)

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm... that is weird from Rhinox. Fake hammering there is pretty dangerous - if it works at all, it's more likely to do harm than good. Why weren't you concerned about the possibility of a no lynch, Rhinox?

I guess I was thinking there was a chance archaist could not pay attention to the VC a few posts before, but others in the town would realize I didn't actually hammer. Also, after archaist responded, or if he didn't respond by the time I got home and checked the thread with a few hours before deadline, I would have announced that I didn't really hammer, but archaist was actually hammered before that could happen so...

I understand where you guys are coming from, but I don't really see how if I were scum I would have expected to get away with causing a no lynch in such a manner.

If I wanted to cause a no lynch it probably would have been more productive to not vote achaist at all and just leave my vote on mk.

Also, especially after archaist flipped scum, why wouldn't I have argued that I missed page 11 when I voted and really thought I hammered - try to save face and make it look like I was intending to lynch archaist rather than something that could be misinterpretted as trying to prevent archaist's lynch?

If I really wanted to prevent my hypo scum partners lynch, I could have voted ThAd to L-1 and expected Archaist or emp to hammer ThAd. If I'm scum with archaist and wanted to bus, why wouldn't I try to do it in a way that might get me some town-points.

The only angle that would make sense as an argument is if you think I'm archaist's scum partner and was giving him a chance to react to being fake-hammered as a townie would to get out of his lynch and make him quasi-confirmed town for a while. That argument would at least make sense, where as "intending to cause a no lynch" really doesn't if you think about it.

The bolded is what really convinces me. In this scenario Rhinoxscum is 8 hours from deadline, wagons split 3-3 scum-town, he's on the town wagon. It's

perfect

for a no lynch, and there's no more onus on Rhinox than anyone else to switch votes. To get a no lynch, you don't bus there.

So. I see that as a bad move - that close to deadline, the risk of a NL outweighs the possible confirmation points - but not so bad as to be unrealistic, and the scum motivation for it is weak to non-existent. Rhinox's end of day play still gives me a solid town read on him.

ThAd on kuz doesn't look like bussing to me. He puts him to L-1 early in the game, a very dodgy move for a scumbag. If ThAd is scum, he went for kuz's lynch hard from the outset, and I just don't see scum trying to kill off their only partner that hard.

So, I'm still very much thinking sAb or Emp, and I won't be voting for another lynch today. On a gut level, I'm liking Emp's posting more than sAb's consistently through the game. I don't think sAb pointing out Rhinox hasn't hammered means too much.

VOTE: sAb

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:
You're ignoring an important piece of context:
Rhinoxscum is 8 hours from deadline, wagons split 3-3 scum-town, he's on the town wagon,

and iama *just* caught his comafia in a "catch of the game"-level contradiction

.

*That*'s the full context for Rhinox's fakehammer voteswitch.

Was it really that big a contradiction? I never really bothered to work it out, the hammer being the obvious move. Still, Rhinox could easily just not have posted without raising serious suspicion.

[Fishythefish]

I don't think sAb pointing out Rhinox hasn't hammered means too much.

Well, I'll play the "what-if" scenario. What if arch wasn't paying attention to the VC and claimed a power role? Rhinox set up a scenario that could no way help the town. If Arch had claimed a power role, then we might have had either a no-lynch due to the fact that it was close to the deadline, or MK being lynched.

@fishy: Who do you think would have gotten the most blame (or I guess the person who would get targetted the most) if there was a no-lynch?

a) Yeah, I'm not criticising 254 in any way, or counting it against you. It was a protown post.
b) The people on neither of the L-2 wagons - namely Arch, Emp and Rhinox. I have just realised that in my head Rhinox was on the MK wagon before his switch, but actually he was on a non-wagon, which changes things a little - he'd have caught some flak if there had been a no lynch. More so because he should know better than to cause a no lynch by being on a non-wagon. This weakens my conviction that Rhinox is town. Still, he'd recently been on the ThAd wagon, and could easily have returned, so overall the move has to count in his favour.

[Fishythefish]

Where is everyone?

[Fishythefish]

What do you think of Rhinox's explanations of his fake hammer post? Why else do you think he's scum?

Rhinox: who's scum?

[Fishythefish]

In my mind if rhinox is scum there are two very good reasons for him to fakehammer when he did: either to get the nolynch, or to try and get a "townie" reaction out of archaist so people (or even just himself) jump off him. In the second case he could have waited for archaist to say "this sucks, I'm town - good luck everyone etc." and then rhinox could have said "shit, that seems town to me, unvote, vote: whoever" and then avoided archaist being lynched.

OK. But both of these seem odd scum strategies compared to either not posting at all or jumping on your wagon.

I'm still really not buying Rhinoxscum. To whoever asked about my preferences after Emp and sAb; I'm not sure it's wise to say, but anyway I don't really know.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:
Look, if you're not reading the context of D1 before making declarations, I'm done arguing with you. I'll spend my energy persuading iama and ThAd to stop bickering with each other and be the last 2 standing.

Here's the situation:
You're a confirmed innocent.
You effectively control 2 of the town's kills.
You want me and sAb dead.
You're near-singlehandedly going to leave the town in a position where there is a 3-person endgame {iama, ThAd, Rhinox}.
And you are doing everything in your power to shirk your responsibility to help the town resolve that.

So fine. Here's what's going to happen.
You will name who today's lynch will be.
You will name your target tonight.
You will demand claims from the other 3 players, the ones who will be around tomorrow if your 2 picks are wrong.
You (and the 2 you marked for death) will provide final input on which of the other 3 should die, to help the ones alive tomorrow.
Then we will lynch your 1st choice. If game continues:
Then you will kill your 2nd choice.
Then you will die. If game continues:
The survivors tomorrow will be in the best possible position to make the final determination.
And you can say you did everything in your power to help your side win.

On me not reading; I assume you're referring to the last point, about Rhinox going along with iam's catch. But that

still

just doesn't give Rhinoxscum motivation to bus. He didn't have to say "wow what a great catch, vote Arch". He could very easily have voted ThAd or noone at all. If Rhinox is scum he killed (or took a massive risk of killing) his only partner for a very limited amount of distancing power. Other than perhaps me he played the

worst

day 1 as scum of anyone in the game - ending up lynching his partner without a decent amount of compensation. He then shot simply the wrong person if he is scum - iam was a way better target. I prefer Rhinox to a no lynch, but I don't see him being scum.

I'm not sure about a plan like this (even if everyone agreed) because of the serious possibility of a scum roleblocker, who could seriously change how well any of this worked. In particular, if I reveal my target and it's the wrong target they have the luxury of choosing whether to block me or not.

You say I'm shirking my responsibility to help town resolve the endgame I'm going to put them in. I don't see how you expect me to help resolve that other than by discussing people's suspicions of each other. I really don't see this as a scenario where massclaim will do much - though I can't see it hurting. I also don't see how it's going to help resolve the endgame if I reveal for sure who's going to be in it.

sAb remains my best bet for scum. He's really the only player who hasn't done anything that I find unlikely from scum. Beyond that, I feel pretty lost. Emp is looking more and more protown today. As above, Rhinox's day 1 and night 1 don't look like scum (his day 2 leaves a lot to be desired). ThAd and iam bussed heroically if they are scum, but I'm starting to think that if sAb is town one of them did.

It's fairly obvious that if we don't lynch sAb today I'm going to kill him tonight. If we do lynch sAb today, I haven't decided who I'm going to shoot. If someone demonstrates to me that it would be protown to declare my kill in advance, then I am happy to decide and declare it.

[Fishythefish]

I think I get the problem- Rhinox is a better player than you.

He realized it would be indefensible to follow iama's catch, hours before deadline, with anything other than a vote on Archaist.  And he realized doing nothing wasn't going to help any either.  He made these basic determinations, which you can't seem to see: that if he did anything else, Archaist would still die, and he'd have been completely exposed.

In my opinion:
1) iam's catch, while significant, was not so overwhelmingly that voting Arch was the only option.
2) If Rhinox had voted ThAd, he would have taken no more heat for it later than anyone else not on the Arch wagon.
3) If Rhinox had not voted, Arch would very likely not have died. If Rhinox had voted ThAd, Arch would very very likely not have died.
I think 3) is beyond doubt - there were only hours to go, and there were two wagons at L-2. Voting either one of them makes it hugely more likely to succeed. The others are obviously matters of judgement, but AFAIC there's just no reason to think that Rhinox was forced to take the only route that didn't mark him as Arch's buddy.

I don't think Rhinox

must

be innocent. But I think his end of day actions make little sense for scum. When I look at day 1, I see that if Rhinox is scum he killed his partner in a situation where he didn't have to, and was never going to look that good for doing so. iam or ThAd being scum would have had to bus their partner hard; Rhinox being scum would have had to avoid being on the actual wagon, but change his mind at the death then make sure his partner got lynched anyway. All the scum death for little of the distancing power. It's possible that Rhinox decided the evidence against his partner was so overwhelming that a mislynch or a no lynch would inevitably lead to their deaths over the next two days. But I doubt it.

Some (probably most) roleblockers can both use a factional kill and block.

Again, I don't see your reasoning behind wanting claims, or wanting to know my nightkill plans - although I'd be glad to hear them. I'm happy to bold underline

I want sAb dead today

[Fishythefish]

2 days until deadline. We need a lynch. Everyone should be voting at this stage, and given the general thinking they should probably be voting for either Rhinox or sAb.

[Fishythefish]

Even if there is a mafia roleblocker who can kill & block: it doesn't matter what you say.
And if there is a mafia roleblocker who cannot kill & roleblock: it doesn't matter what you say.
If there is a mafia godfather: it is better for the town if you say your target than if you don't say your target.
How is this so hard to understand?

There should be no uncertainty tomorrow about what you will have done tonight.
There should be no lynch before removing this uncertainty.
You have given no thought whatsoever to how this will play out if sAb is revealed as innocent.  
You are doing everything in your power to waste the town's opportunities.  There are 2 days left.  Quit it.

If there is a roleblocker who cannot kill and block, then if I say I'm targetting town he can kill me and be in a 2v1. If I keep quiet and he blocks me out of fear, it's 4v1.
If there is a roleblocker who can kill and block, then I agree it doesn't matter. Tomorrow we are either in a 2v1 or 3v1 (and in the latter case you should no lynch).
If there is a mafia godfather then saying my target is still very meh, because we aren't ever going to know there's one.
It's hard to understand because you haven't ever given me any reason why you want to know the nightkill.

Why should there be no uncertainty about who I shot at? In what circumstance could it affect your decisions?
I have given plenty of thought to how this will play out if sAb is revealed as innocent. Nowhere, anywhere, have I seen a good reason that I should be saying who I'm shooting.
What opportunities am I wasting? You say I'm keeping Rhinox's options open if he is scum. How? If you mean massclaim, I wouldn't have minded one (probably too late now) but I can't see what possible good it could have done. Other than that, I really don't see what you mean, except that I'm disagreeing with you about whether he's scum.

It's not at all clear there is sufficient support for lynching whoever *I* vote for.

[Fishythefish]

Because Rhinox is a realistic lynch today. Emp is not. We need a lynch.

[Fishythefish]

That mod post scared me... didn't realise it was a countdown timer. We need one more vote on sAb.

[Fishythefish]

(Especially when you are clearly incapable of basic analysis. 2v1 after a vigkill is equivalent to 4v1 without!)

Since in the relevant scenario the vigkill

only happens if it's on town

, it isn't really like a townkill. IF we autolynch anyone I fail to kill, the situations are equivalent, but there's no particular reason we would. It's kind of an odd situation, but the analysis certainly isn't as simple as you suggest here.

You still haven't named a single scenario in which it would be good to know who I shot at.

[Fishythefish]

BAH! Go town!

[Fishythefish]

I shot at ThAd on N2. I'm disappointed but unsurprised by the Rhinox lynch.

@Emp: I still have no idea how you think town could have got more bites at any apples. At the end of the day, from day 2 we had two shots at scum, and we made the wrong calls. If the game had gone on day 2 as you wanted it to, AFAIC the only difference would have been that you would have known I was shooting at ThAd, and we'd have had loads of VT claims. And there's just no way that would have helped.