Newbie 1076: Day Three

[Olinea]

Well, I see my predecessor did a bang-up job of... confirming.

A warm welcome to all. I've played with DarkFlashlight, and know him from offsite, modded a game of Kagetora's (which ended about 10 minutes ago, too), and played some marathon with DarlaBlueEyes. Looking forward to a good game with you all!

First impressions:
~Common Man's self-vote looks like

bad

AtE. There was absolutely no reason to do that, and frankly it comes across as an attempt to buy "non-mafia" credit, because like hell that'll buy you town cred.
~Kagetora is playing to a town meta, IMO. Never seen him as scum, but if he were scum I think he'd be

much

more inclined to appeal to the general view of "no lynching is bad" in order to avoid confrontation. He sticks to his guns, which is good.
~More later. I've got a lab report due tomorrow, but I can try to get a quick re-read in there since it's only 4 pages long.

[Olinea]

UNVOTE: Commonman

^^" he he oh wow what was i thinking last night.

This would indicate some sort of drunk posting, but the lack of an explanation afterwards pretty much screams "IT'S A RUSE".

Common Man, early pressure sucks. Believe me, I've been through it. But if there's a case on you, one of the worst possible things you can do is consciously acknowledge that people find you suspicious, and then fail to address any points made on you. AtE is not a defense because it does

not

account for what you've done in-game. You're being accused because you self-voted, presumably under the pretenses that you were resigned to being speedlynched when you had literally 3 votes on you, you claim that you'll always hold your reads to yourself, which equates to active lurking, and now you're either completely giving up on Page 4 or trying to AtE yourself out of a lynch. You are not going to be lynched on Page 4. Even if you're Town, and both scum are on your wagon, that requires 3 townies to decide that you are a fantastic lynch choice after 4 pages of discussion. Kagetora vehemently supports No Lynch, and assuming you don't self-vote, that requires 60% of the town to say "yup, no need for further discussion" and string you up. Assuming you're scum, it still requires 60% of the town (assuming bussing). I would hope that none of us would, given the chance, lynch you on the spot. There is still a

ton

of room for discussion today, and if you're Town then you'd better start acting like it.

Concerning Otolia's "free speech" comment, I saw that as a joke. Sakako notably called it "scummy", which I'm curious to hear the reasoning behind. Everybody else was confused but why did you, Sakako, decide there was scum motivation in saying that?

Darkie is coming out of the gate and looking town right now.

Darla, you say you're fond of a Common Man lynch right now. Let's say the mod gives you a daykill. Would you shoot Common Man in your very next post?

[Olinea]

Darla, why do you keep saying stuff like:

I am quite fond of this lynch right now

i do liike his lynch

instead of calling it a "wagon"? I meta’ed Newbie 1045 and found that you do indeed use “wagon”, too.

Kay I am heeere. And sad because that Thor wagon fell apart D:

I don't particularly like how Bump was trying to get a early d1 wagon on enders who was (imo) really just playing like a n00ber with his no-lynch vote

Why are you referring to the Common Man situation as a “lynch” rather than a “wagon”? It sounds like you’re resigned to him being lynched.

[Olinea]

Well, I see my predecessor did a bang-up job of... confirming.

A warm welcome to all. I've played with DarkFlashlight, and know him from offsite, modded a game of Kagetora's (which ended about 10 minutes ago, too), and played some marathon with DarlaBlueEyes. Looking forward to a good game with you all!

First impressions:
~Common Man's self-vote looks like

bad

AtE. There was absolutely no reason to do that, and frankly it comes across as an attempt to buy "non-mafia" credit, because like hell that'll buy you town cred.
~Kagetora is playing to a town meta, IMO. Never seen him as scum, but if he were scum I think he'd be

much

more inclined to appeal to the general view of "no lynching is bad" in order to avoid confrontation. He sticks to his guns, which is good.
~More later. I've got a lab report due tomorrow, but I can try to get a quick re-read in there since it's only 4 pages long.

Scum.

Vote: Olinea

Baseless.

[Olinea]

1) Offers to join the prevailing wagon

Is that so?

~Common Man's self-vote looks like

bad

AtE. There was absolutely no reason to do that, and frankly it comes across as an attempt to buy "non-mafia" credit, because like hell that'll buy you town cred.

That was a good one, I needed a laugh.

In other words, exactly the sort of post that will get him lynched without really taking a stand on the wagon.

Wish there was some better way to refute this other than a meta argument, but eh. I stay conservative with my vote, especially since Common Man isn't scummy enough to put at L-1 so early in the game -- plus, just because he self-voted for bad AtE is not grounds to put him on that kind of threshold.

2) Defends someone for something that would be suspicious for him not to note. Makes no real other comment on it.

Pretty sure I evaluated Kagetora as Town on that one. What more is there to say about it?

3) Next post - instead of doing catchup on the rest, nitpicks a point of terminology with DBE.

DBE's use of "lynch" indicates looking at the Common Man wagon as a future result rather than a phase in the game. To me, it looks like something to keep in mind.

Oh and the first line... the best scumtell ever. See, it's really really funny. Town replacing into a game almost never looks at their predecessor much. I mean why bother? They're town, you might check their reads. But that's it.

Scum always, always, always check their predecessor to see what sort of situation they were left in. And a lot of the time they can't help but to comment on it.

He checked his predecessor specifically to see what he left him in the thread

Actually, I asked to be put down as a replacement during the confirmation stage, so I've been reading the thread before I even got my replacement PM.

In addition, why would you

not

look at your predecessor's statements and interactions with others? It's effectively denying yourself of information. Granted, in this case Sondanaa had literally

nothing

of value, but from a more general standpoint, not knowing how your replacee refuted arguments made against him is only going to hurt, regardless of alignment.

[Olinea]

Uh huh. How very general.

Is... this just a way of casting aside my defense? You dodged my question of "what more is there to say on the Kagetora situation if I labelled him as Town?".

You carefully note all the pro-town reasons to look at what your predecessors have done. Your predecessor did nothing. Town ignore it, because he's confirmed town (it's like an innocent child who posts once every three days - annoying, but meh, town).

The ever-popular "it was a joke" defense is coming up now. I like to think I tend not to use "bang-up" unless I'm being more lax... who says that?

You were wondering if anyone thought your predecessor was scummy because all he did was confirm then replace out. I mean that must be null, right?

Uhm, yeah, it's null. I recognized it as null, too.

Sakako, I noticed you said this:

Scum.

How can you come to that rather astounding conclusion, with just one post? Just saying. It seems a little "oh, let's get the pressure pushed somewhere else"-esque, to me.

This would imply you thought Otolia/GreyICE was coming under scrutiny -- in my eyes, Common Man seemed to be copping the most flak out of everyone, and most everyone else was under the radar. Do you think Otolia was under enough pressure at the time to try and deflect?

[Olinea]

Oh, hey, this.

At this point I think I'm going to start treating GreyICE as background noise. I'll be happy to respond to a case if I see one.

Actually yes, I do. The whole "none of your business" thing I think was drawing enough attention at the time to warrant me saying that that kind of pressure-shift was actually a scummy move rather than a simple observation.

Still, you'd think GreyICE could have simply disappeared during the Common Man situation, right?

I'm agreeing that the case appears

extremely

forced. However, I’d like to look at chkflip’s response to the ordeal.

He refuted your first point, which I agree with; it really looks like you're trying to misrep him or maybe your perception is different. I read it as a longer version of what I'd said to Common. Unless you're specifically only talking about the shortened version, which I still don't see how you derived "Good lynch but I'm not voting" from that. How'd you get that from Oli's post?

The other three points kind of feel like you're strawmanning; granted, he only has five posts, and a few are the conversation between you two, but I can't find this as conclusive enough to warrant my vote. Much less a push for his lynch. Is there meta or something else you're pulling from that I should know?

Okay, so GreyICE gets this in:

Meta? Nah. No meta. Scum ALWAYS read their predecessors when replacing in. Wouldn't you? I mean exactly how bad were his tells? What did he do? What position are you in?

I've never done much but ignore my predecessor when I'm town. It's other people that are interesting. Maybe if he claimed something in the thread I'll check what the hell he claimed, but other than that, don't really care.

He'll flip scum. I feel much better about that one than anyone else in the thread.

chkflip responds:

GreyICE's case against Oli seems plausible; does

anyone

else agree with it? Disagree?

GreyICE

pretty much

restated the exact same thing about me and chkflip suddenly thinks the case has gone from “GreyICE is strawmanning” to “this is a viable case”.

I’d like to think there’s one scum in GreyICE/chkflip – likely not both.

Vote: GreyICE

The entire case is weak and effectively has boiled down from “he looked at his predecessor” to “he’s scum”.

[Olinea]

No comment on Oli's tie between you and chk

Eh, I'm not seeing ties between the two. I'm thinking one or the other.

GreyICE, for somebody whose case is entirely built on meta, you sure are defying your Town one.

[Olinea]

Well I have to say the active people are doing a good job at creating sides.
Grey: I don't think you have enough support or solid, indisputable evidence or logic to your proposed lynch of Olinea, and it still doesn't feel like the argument is entirely heartfelt. So y/n? n. Definitely n until you have more evidence/arguments.

Kage, why do I get the impression from this post that you're considering lynching on Day 1 now?

Not a bad thing, I'd just like to know if we got around to you.

[Olinea]

chkflip's summary of Kagetora brings up a yet unseen willingness of Kagetora to hammer. Definitely missed that. What's surprising is that Kage chose

not

to ride the Town read I had on him due to consistency in his No Lynch stance but this reversal is, yeah, unnerving. There's been fluff coming from his end and I don't think he's made specific ties to anyone yet.

The Otolia/GreyICE situation is still on my radar but I think, based on something in that message, that Otolia is Town. We'll come back to that.

Sakako's post.... urgh.

Okay. I'm sick of this. I'm going to

Vote: Common Man

simply because he hasn't picked up his prod or anything like that, and it's been nearly a week since last he posted. So, either he's away, or he's scum. But he hasn't said anything - I think a week is probably enough time to at least tell people that you're gonna go V/LA. Right, people?

... At any rate, this vote is nowhere near a hammer, but if someone's going to put him at L-1, they better be sure not to hammer the replacement (which I think is becoming more and more likely).

What do I see coming from this?

Sakako's putting a vote on the Common Man spot for disappearing. That's it. "Either he's away or he's scum" also makes very little sense, because it's quite evident that Common Man is away -- by that logic it would make him Town. Still, flakes come from all alignments. But the reasoning behind this vote is bad -- being an SE, I'd expect Sakako to be aware of how replacements come in (hell, he even mentions it). It's not so much a vote for Common Man's scumminess as it is the fact that he's lurking.

The second paragraph, too, also indicates desire to see Common Man at L-1. Common Man was there once before, so why the disposition to expect a Common Man wagon to explode out of nowhere? There are other alternatives at this point, which Sakako hasn't addressed in favor of restarting a Common Man wagon.

We come back to Otolia, and

finally

we have a case here! I’m seeing this as “He didn’t take a definite stance on the Common Man wagon”. In case it wasn’t evident in the first statement, I interpreted Common Man’s self-vote as a scummy way to try and earn some Town points due to WIFOM purposes (“Would he

really

put himself at L-1 as scum?”).

However, I found this in that message:

That wagon is a town wagon pushed by town, because Common Man's play is so anti-town it hurts. He's still town though.

This is why I’m thinking Otolia is Town. Scum GreyICE wouldn’t have a need to inform Otolia of his read on Common Man since he’d inherently know Common Man was Town anyways. The Town reads are also consistent – he called MrBump Town and Bump has been a proponent of the Common Man wagon for a while. I realize the message may have been edited but, from what I’ve read of GreyICE, it matches his writing style pretty well. At least more so than it matches Otolia.

Welcome, Glass.

Unvote: Otolia
Vote: Sakako

[Olinea]

@Oli
Why wait until post 152 to vote ice? In post 152 all you did was attack chk with no new reasons why ice has suddenly appeared scummy.

Realized my vote wasn't doing any good where it was at the time (i.e. nowhere).

Regardless of the second sentence, the tone of the first sentence is very critical (maybe I just read it that way?). Why are you trying to push kage back into the "No lynch day 1 is good" state of mind?

It's not a push. Kagetora's sudden change in the one thing he vehemently supported for the entire game was unprompted and it merited investigation.

[Olinea]

The main reason I would have liked to see Common Man at L-1 was to further explain the nonsense he was spouting about how I was scummy from my first post. Obviously Glass can't tell me anything about this. In addition, we haven't really dismissed the self-vote thing. But he can't tell us anything about that either.

The whole "away or scum" thing, too, is a non-case now. I'm not excluding the fact that Glass is scum. Although his wall of text gives him many many points on my town list, all I was saying there was mainly if he responds to the vote, then he's been lurking, and is therefore scum.

How would putting Common Man back at L-1 incite discussion about his reads, especially bearing in mind that Common Man had previously showed signs of defeatism and might be prone to selfhammering? Why can't you question Common Man and expect results without him being at L-1?

So your vote was a pressure vote to see if Common Man was employing lurking as a strategy to avoid suspicion, and you would try and see if your vote would bring him out only to defend himself? It's plausible, and I'd think definitely the best way to deal with lurkers (pressuring them into not lurking, I mean).

[Olinea]

Also, please, no more No Lynch discussion. No Lynch is not a viable option today because we are not getting 5 people to vote for it. Discussion about No Lynch can most likely be found in Mafia Discussion or other theory places on-site. It's only turning our "who is scum?" into "when are we going to start searching for scum?". Now. We're finding scum now, and we're lynching scum now.

Otolia's L-1 vote. I need to know why you did that. It's like you

want

me to doubt that Town read I have on you or something.

[Olinea]

It's unlikely, but I don't want some scum to think of themself as disposable and trollhammer him, especially if it's a newbie who tries to say it was a mistake afterwards.

hmmmm... This is so odd I don't even know where to start.
1. implying that sakako is not scum
2. if scum "trollhammers" him, wouldn't that make it obv that they is scum? Why would you not want that?

RRRRRGH... Glass, you ninja.

Was going to point this out. Darkie, if scum are going to try a "trollhammer" on Sakako, that means Sakako would be Town. You'll notice that your vote has remained on Sakako for this entire time, so why the change of heart, especially when deadline is closing in?

I do not condone a lynch on Otolia. He's erratic but I still think he's Town.

Fun fact: Sakako has never mentioned DarlaBlueEyes

or

Kagetora for this entire game.

@Sakako: What are your opinions on Darla and Kage?

[Olinea]

Am I the only one who thinks Sakako should claim? There's not a lot else he can say to defend himself. I don't really want to lynch Sakako today, seeing how Otolia, chkflip and Kage are all scummier.

Yes, you are. If you are not willing to lynch Sakako, then what's the point in him claiming?

[Olinea]

4 votes does not a lynch make. Claiming should be done at L-1 with somebody expressing intent to hammer, else there really isn't a point to it.

[Olinea]

Hey, I'm here. I'm gonna try my hand at a VCA and see where that gets us.

[Olinea]

Okay, since the VCA is guiding my vote for the time being, I'm labelling myself as Town. If you'd like to do your own non-Olinea VCAs that's cool, it just makes things easier for me.



DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
Common Man (1) - DarkFlashlight,
Spikkle (1) - Common Man,
Kagetora (0 )-

Sondanaa

(1) –

Sakako

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (1) -

chkflip

,

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (4): Otolia, Spikkle, Kagetora,

Sondanaa

Not getting anything here.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) - DarlaBlueEyes,
Common Man (1) - DarkFlashlight,
Spikkle (1) - Common Man,
Kagetora (1)- Spikkle,

Sondanaa

(1) -

chkflip

,

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3): Otolia,

Sondanaa

,

Sakako

(No Lynch (1): Kagetora,)


Nope.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) - DarlaBlueEyes,
Common Man (1) - DarkFlashlight,
Spikkle (0) -
Kagetora (1)- Spikkle,

Sondanaa

(1) -

chkflip

,

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3): Otolia,

Sondanaa

,

Sakako

No Lynch (2): Kagetora, Common Man


Nope.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
GreyICE (0) -
Common Man (3) - DarkFlashlight,

Sakako

, DarlaBlueeyes
Spikkle (0) -
Kagetora (1)- Spikkle,

Olinea

(1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2):

Olinea

, Common Man
No Lynch (1): Kagetora,


Common Man wagon picks up steam, Darkie's vote has been on longer, but I can't say I can honestly expect scum Darla to get on board with a Common Man wagon expecting it to go to completion.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
GreyICE (0) -
Common Man (2) - DarkFlashlight, DarlaBlueeyes
Spikkle (0) -
Kagetora (1)- Spikkle,

Olinea

(1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3):

Olinea

, Common Man,

Sakako

No Lynch (1): Kagetora,


Okay, so Sakako's off, nothing new.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
GreyICE (0) -
Common Man (2) - DarlaBlueeyes, MrBump
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0)-

Olinea

(1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(1) - DarkFlashlight
DarlaBlueEyes (1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3):

Olinea

, Common Man,

Sakako

No Lynch (1): Kagetora,


Interesting interactions with Common Man now. Darkie's off and MrBump gets on. Pulled this quote from Common Man:

@chkflip: Well as of what i think of the three who voted me.

DarkFlashlight

: He doesn't strike me as scummy at all. He played calm and stated logical ideas instead of "he is just a noob mafia who got scared, lynch him now".

Sakako

: I've been getting a small aura of scum from him ever since his first post and i cant exactly put my finger on it as to why. But beside that aura he seems fine to me.

DarlaBlueEyes

: She seems the most scummy out of the three. When she first voted me, the only reason she had was "scummy is as scummy does". Then the next post she still did give a reason. Then after that post she finally gave a reason which was nothing more than just "He is a noob mafia".

Overall I think it may hint towards Darkie-CM/Glass, like Darkie tried to play a bus and the wagon shot up faster than expected, hops onto Town.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) -

Olinea

Common Man (3) - DarlaBlueEyes, MrBump,

Sakako

MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (1)-

chkflip

Olinea

(1) - Otolia

Sakako

(1) - DarkFlashlight
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (1): Common Man
No Lynch (1): Kagetora,


Sakako on Common Man now, nothing new.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (0) -
Glass (2) -

Sakako

, DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (1)-

chkflip

Olinea

(1) - Otolia

Sakako

(3) - DarkFlashlight, Glass,

Olinea

DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (1): MrBump
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


MrBump/Glass now? I have a hard time believing Darkie and Glass, as a potential scumteam, would try back-to-back voting on Sakako, but it might have been a ruse to de-fuse any lingering Common Man stuff.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (2) - MrBump,

Sakako

Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0) -

Olinea

(0) -

Sakako

(3) - Glass,

Olinea

,

chkflip

DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): DarkFlashlight, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


Darkie's off Sakako now when the wagon starts picking up heat. Interesting.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (2) - MrBump,

Sakako

Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0) -

Olinea

(0) -

Sakako

(3) -

Olinea

,

chkflip

, Glass
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): DarkFlashlight, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


Nothing new, really.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) -

Sakako

Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0) -

Olinea

(0) -
L-1

Sakako

(4) -

Olinea

,

chkflip

, Glass, MrBump
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): DarkFlashlight, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


MrBump rounding it off here. His reasoning is that the Sakako wagon is probably not going to burn out and he wanted to get to DAT STORY TIEM. Uh-uh. There was pretty much

no

suspicion from MrBump on Sakako, and he had doubts about Otolia/Kagetora/chkflip beforehand.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) -

Sakako

Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0) -

Olinea

(0) -

Sakako

(LYNCH) -

Olinea

,

chkflip

, Glass, MrBump, DarkFlashlight
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): DarkFlashlight, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


Darkie comes back for the =========[ ].


Things I notice:
~Kagetora's vote not budging an inch is worrisome, it makes it pretty difficult to get a good read.
~I'd be willing to bet a chunk of money on there being at least 1 scum in [DarkFlashlight, Glass, MrBump]; I can see Darkie/Glass and MrBump/Glass but not Darkie/MrBump. [DarlaBlueEyes, Kagetora] make everybody generally uneasy but they don't pair well with many. I still think Otolia is frustrated Town.

Vote: Glass

[Olinea]

Alright, well, MrBump's comment about "One scum in DFL/Glass/Bump" makes me realize that the VCA is really only condemning for you three because you're really the only ones (besides Sakako) who moved your votes throughout D1. There wasn't any way to extract information from Kagetora's and DarlaBlueEyes' voting patterns, so they pretty much flew under the radar on that one. He also does raise a good point about the entire reason behind voting Glass is that interactions would pair him with either Darkie or MrBump, too.

I'd still like to think a VCA is useful even without scumflips, but it's probably not

as

effective in smaller games with smaller wagons. Meh. I'm learning.

@Glass: The results of the VCA are not due to confirmation bias. But yeah, I do see that they're flawed.

Unvote: Glass

As a heads-up, my professors are piling Chem and Physics midterms for me on Monday, so this weekend (and Monday) is/are going to be devoted to studying, Monday for doing the exams, and Tuesdays are 9-hour class days, so

LA for until Tuesday evening.

I can

try

to get on and post a bit, but no promises.

[Olinea]

Hey, I found time for this. Really quick before I get back to work.

@MrBump: Do you still find Otolia suspicious? If so, how can you refute the argument that Otolia's copy-pasted message, (yes, I know Otolia admitted to having edited it), matches GreyICE's writing style more than Otolia's?

@Kagetora: Scumpicks?

[Olinea]

I'M BACK, BITCHES

Let's see what's up.

Like I said, I believe Grey sent it to make Otolia appear more town.

Hm. I actually hadn't considered that GreyICE provided Otolia with a fake message. I notice Otolia posted the message without much prompting, but I'm not sure if that would be indicative of being really eager to use a fake GreyICE message or just wanting to get information on the table. However, I think this is pretty provable as to whether or not GreyICE has sent Otolia a full-blown message (Town and GreyICE is a beast) or a snippet (Likely scum sending a sample to give the impression of having more information).

Otolia, can you show us the rest of the message that GreyICE sent you?

Not really liking this Kagetora case, at least not the part about "Kage gave off Cop vibes but I don't think he's a Cop" (I've given off Doc tells as a VT on accident and bit the bullet) and how Kage logged in during the night. Checking the site isn't a scumtell. That being said, I notice Kage's latest post is simply giving reads on others instead of trying to produce more content by asking questions. I'd like to see him ask questions instead of simply giving the bare minimum of what people demand from him.

Darkie's putting down a vote on DarlaBlueEyes citing his reasoning as...

If you're always busy or unavailable, why don't you just get a replacement and join another game later? It's not like you're attached to this one.

... which I find to be a bit of a convoluted "Lynch All Lurkers" policy. Am I missing something in your reasoning, Darkie?

Is it so important to stick to your meta that you are fully uncapable of voting? No, it is not. That's scummy.

Where is the scum motivation in trying to stick to a Town meta? To appear Town? Appearing Town is not a scumtell.

[Olinea]

Going to class so I don't have time for a full-blown response but this made me lol and was too good to pass up.

Where is the scum motivation in trying to stick to a Town meta? To appear Town? Appearing Town is not a scumtell.

trying to stick to town meta = trying to appear town = scum's entire gameplay

The hell?

And how should Town act? Scummy?

[Olinea]

I'd agree to that in some circumstances. Looking Town sometimes comes naturally regardless of alignment.

However, we're really just arguing a semantics game at the moment.

[Olinea]

Look, I get that Kage claims to be trying to appear Town. But how is that a scumtell? Nobody's going to try upholding a

scum

meta. I completely understand that there's scum motivation in trying to look Town. I'm saying that it's also Town motivation to look Town, too.

[Olinea]

@Oli
You shouldn't need to try and uphold a town meta if you are town, it should come naturally.

Looking Town sometimes comes naturally regardless of alignment.

:/

Alright, so the Kagetora case is building to be large enough where I’m really not dismissing this stuff as a series of newbie mistakes. I’d be glad to L-1 Kagetora (Isn’t he at L-2?

Equinox, can we get a vote count?

) after we figure out what’s going on with Otolia and his message since I think it seems pretty airtight – if he has it, he’s Town; if he doesn’t, I’m putting a good amount of money on him being scum.

One thing in your case I noticed, Glass:

Him coming online to check if night is over is also bs.

The first one I came in wondering if the night was over. It wasn't. The second one I didn't feel like I had much to contribute at the time so I didn't bother posting.

so you came on to see if night ended. It hadn't. So then when you came on again to see if night had ended (and it had) but you didn't feel like posting? Why were you waiting for night to end if you didn't feel like posting?

Wouldn’t this reinforce the idea that he thought chkflip was scum? If one of your top scumreads suddenly dies overnight, it pretty much leaves you at a loss as to who to suspect. That being said, I’m willing to vote Kage as long as I’m not dropping a hammer sans claim.

You're missing a lot. I believe all of DBE's reasons for V/LA, and I'm indifferent to the fact that she's doing it, however unproductive it is. My point is that, if you were so inconvenienced as to have made like, three actual posts in a 16 page game, why would you not replace? You're not helping town by not being there. On the flipside, she says she's reading at least, so she can see that hardly anyone truly suspects her, so if she doesn't replace and keeps the inactive streak, it's a pretty safe ride, why endanger that by gambling on a replacement?

Lemme check some of Darla’s other games and see if she’s inactive in only this one. It seems like you’re saying Darla’s more active in her other Town games since the Town is depending on her input, but if there are other games where she’s just as inactive, it seems

pretty

unlikely that Darla would land scum roles in

all

of her games.

I know the votecount Nacho posted as of Sakako's lynch was wrong, and DFL was on twice. I'm pretty sure DBE also voted Sakako. If I'm wrong, well fuck, I probably just lynched myself.

Not sure what you mean here, Kage.

Onto Kage:
You can't forget why someone is scummy.

Remind me to talk about this post-game.

@Otolia, Olinea and Darla: Who are your top reads?

At this point, Kagetora + Otolia (if Otolia can’t produce what we’re looking for). If Otolia produces, I’ll be re-reading.

[Olinea]

Also, Kage is at L-3. This is where someone votes him, amirite.

4 to lynch.

Vote: Rage in the Kage

THAT'S L-1.

[Olinea]

Glass, what's your take on the "If Otolia doesn't produce the rest of GreyICE's PM, he's scum"?

[Olinea]

Unvote: Kagetora
Vote: Otolia

L-2

[Olinea]

For the scum advice, it was for this game. Won by him replacing me.

This pretty much clears it up. I was under the impression that GreyICE was telling you that you needed to step up your game. This previously linked game, well, now I know you two have history.

Glass, look at the surprisingly fast vote swap from Olinea (2 min) Can you read the whole PM in 2 min ? No, this is why he didn't gave any reason.

?

I'm seeing a gap of ~2 hours between your post and my vote switch. Or are you referring to something else?

I mean, what does Otolia GAIN from pasting this PM into the thread?

It's more of what would have happened to him had he

not

posted it. In addition, we can see GreyICE/Otolia's opinions lie now.

I rushed that vote, yeah. It's mostly because I hadn't known the history of GreyICE + Otolia and it seemed like coaching. I'm right back onto Kage, but now that Otolia's posted the PM and Occam's Razor dictates he's most likely Town due to inclusion of the reads I can't imagine who Kage's buddy would be.

Unvote: Otolia
Vote: Kagetora

L-1

[Olinea]

Urk, not much going on.

I think I'm still going on silavor/Kagetora spot being scum. I'd like a hammer. Neither Kage nor Darla have made ties to anyone and that makes it difficult to say I could see a silavor/DBE bus at the moment. I do not condone a lynch of Otolia or Glass and you'd have to show me some pretty damn good evidence to make me go for MrBump/Darkie today. I would help lynch DBE if silavor goes all RRRRAUGH TOWN TOWN TOWN.

[Olinea]

Whooooo, we got some postin' in Darla's spot now!

To me, at least one of Hoppster/silavor

has

to be scum. And maybe it's because Kage had so much more coming out of his spot than Darla that reading that spot unearths a lot more dirt. I don't know. We all know Darla was inactive, yeah. But Hoppster's latest posting, IMO, is definitely more Town-guided than silavor's. I'd like to keep him around more.

Re: the chkflip kill; how some seem to think he's the only one who suspected Darla. I'm swaying on this... to my knowledge, he was also one of the only (if not

the

only) person to attack Kagetora on Day 1 after Kage was contemplating a hammer vote despite his continual stance of No Lynch. I'd think that point was moot and chkflip was killed because he was the IC and acting pretty Town; perhaps there were PR tells but iunno. I'd expect the Kage spot to try and kill chkflip based on IC status and perhaps to alleviate pressure.

Otolia has gotten even more erratic and defeatist in his posting but I'm still maintaining a Town read on him due to the letter incident and that I think he's still finding his comfort zone with how aggressively he wants to post; like he wants to emulate GreyICE or something.

I don't think V/LA is a scumtell in the slightest. Faking V/LA, definitely, but that's low. Darla's probably had computer problems for a while.

I still support a silavor lynch and I'm not going on Hoppster or Otolia.

[Olinea]

Vanilla Townie.

Hoppster next.

[Olinea]

I'm thinking Hoppster + MrBump. Bump is only by process of elimination since I can't see myself voting for Otolia and Glass is, yeah, pretty damn Town. I think Otolia's erratic play and desire to be lynched stems from a lack of confidence in LyLo situations where he doesn't want to make a bad call and lose the entire game. I have free time after class so I'll re-read and see what I can find.

[Olinea]

I meant that saying "I admit I sucked as town" basically means "I'm scum"

Erm.

It means "I was Town, but I didn't do well".

How can you interpret that as "I'm scum"?

[Olinea]

@OLI
So you pretty much have the game figured out? What is stopping you from voting?

Excuse me?

When did I ever claim to have the game figured out?

Also, thanks for trying to goad me into rushing a LyLo vote. Keep it up.

[Olinea]

Asking a question = goading?

When did I ever claim to have the game figured out?

I can't see myself voting for Otolia and Glass is, yeah, pretty damn Town.

So what other options are there oli?

My reads aren't settled, you know. I'm not rushing a LyLo vote... I've been on the receiving end of a rushed LyLo vote and I'd rather it not end that way again. I see it as goading since you're misinterpreting my statement of who my current scumpicks are and making it seem like I've asserted it as fact and not liable to change.

I'll try to get a re-read in after a bit of homework (urgh, homework on a Friday night... yay for lollege). We'll see.

[Olinea]

Are you guuys

reeeaaally

missing it THAT HARD?

If someone is scummy.
They are usually scum.
That is how you catch scum in Mafia.
If you say "I SUCKED AS TOWN THIS GAME", does that clear you as town? No, you sucked as town because you're scummy, and

being scummy generally means you're scum.

What, do we just lynch the most ProTown players there are or something? NO. God dammit people, this is LYLO, we don't need to blindly misrep.

you sucked as town because you're scummy

you sucked as town

sucked as town

town

being scummy generally means you're scum.

generally means you're scum.

means you're scum.

you're scum.

You... keep making conflicting statements. And you're misrepping Otolia when you say Otolia's "I sucked as Town" and proceed to back it up with that, you keep saying Otolia played a bad game as Town but is actually scum. So, which is it?

[Olinea]

Glass, if your scumreads are Hoppster/Bump, why did you choose me before them in the massclaim order?

[Olinea]

@Oli
Who said my scumreads were bump-hopp when I wanted you to claim?

Now a question of my own.
Your reads in oto are rather odd, you did not ICE as I recall (saying that he was not playing to his town meta, etc) and I may have misinterpreted it but you seemed to support the idea that if oto did not have the entire pm that ICE sent him he was scum. So why do you have such a strong town read on him?

~If your scumreads were Bump-Hopp, you would have selected one of them to go first in the massclaim order. The earlier scum claims, the more limited they are in their claiming possibilities due to the possibility of PRs being pushed to the back of the queue.

~Because Otolia

does

have the entire PM, and it matches GreyICE's writing style

way

more than Otolia's, in my opinion. I can go read GreyICE scum meta (Otolia, can you link me that game where GreyICE replaced for you?) because I'm not sure I've ever seen it, but from Town games of his I

have

observed (Mayo Clinic, Lovers) his play in this game seemed

much

less active and more "ho hum, I caught scum, you can sheep me... or not, that's chill". A lot of evidence pointing towards my Otolia Town read is that PM -- GreyICE theoretically

could

have faked it but I'm much more inclined to think he did write the entire thing. And, as I explained before, (and seconded by Otolia) I think his unpredictable behavior was because he didn't want to end up in LyLo. Now that he's here and that's not changing, you'll notice he's much calmer and analytical -- take a look at the post above me, for example.

[Olinea]

Probably would have gone Darkie ---> chkflip.

Perhaps it's because I had some gut scum read on Darkie D2, but I would have likely seen him as somebody who wouldn't garner night protection but not easily able to have a lynch pushed on him -- I could also have seen him as a PR, since he was kinda in the background and almost no discussion revolved around him. chkflip if only because of his experience, plus he looked pretty dang Town too.

[Olinea]

Fuck it. I don't see myself changing on Hoppster today.

Vote: Hoppster

[Olinea]

Fuck it. I don't see myself changing on Hoppster today.

Vote: Hoppster

It seems like Olinea isn't concerned about the game anymore ...

Do you disagree with the Hoppster vote?

[Olinea]

Meh, I considered voting him myself. I doubt there will be a quickhammer.

If you doubt there'd be a quickhammer, you think he's scum, right?

So why the lack of a vote?

[Olinea]

At this point, given the timestamps between Glass, Bump, and Otolia and all of their posts, I'm inclined to rule out pairings of those three as scumteams. Bump/Glass are posting within 5 minutes of each other, Glass/Otolia 4, and Bump/Otolia have been going head-to-head in a position where scum would try to win it today (also 9 minutes, which seems small but leaves a lot of wiggle room to understand why a Bump/Oto quickhammer wouldn't take place)

So yeah. Hoppster/1 other (FMPOV, of course).

[Olinea]

I don't see any Town or scum motivation in Hoppster's vote. It's all you

can

do in that situation.

I can get what little of a case I can up, but it'll be biased and seen through tinted lenses.

[Olinea]

Why are we even discussing this? Hoppster's trying to make it seem like following the #1 rule of LyLo (vote the guy who's voting you) is somehow Town-motivated.

Olinea

votes

Hoppster

Hoppster has nothing to lose by voting me, since he'd get quickhammered anyways.

Olinea

votes

Hoppster

Without a lack of a quickhammer, the three (or one, in the case of 3p LyLo) undecided voters cannot be carrying both scum. Ergo, one scum is voting Hoppster, so he votes scum.

Olinea

votes

Hoppster

See above, except Hoppster votes me to give the impression of scenario #2. In addition, if Hoppster votes ANYONE else, it indicates he thinks Town is voting for him, in which case he'd follow scenario 1, anyways.

Olinea

votes

Hoppster

See above.



Hoppster's trying to induce false Town motivation in his vote on me. There shouldn't be any discussion about "Oh, you probably voted Olinea because XXX". It's the only move you can make in LyLo. End of story.

[Olinea]

Glass.

Deadline is May 3rd.

Today's lynch is me or Hoppster. I've got scum on the end of my reel and I'm not giving it up for a 1/3 shot. So instead of trying to spread suspicion onto both Hoppster and myself by claiming LyLo bussing has a high success rate, and

also

MrBump, how 'bout you start taking a stance on this?

[Olinea]

Sorry for the quick post, I have class in a bit.

I thought Otolia confirmed my idea as to why he claimed scum already.

I'm thinking Hoppster + MrBump. Bump is only by process of elimination since I can't see myself voting for Otolia and Glass is, yeah, pretty damn Town. I think Otolia's erratic play and desire to be lynched stems from a lack of confidence in LyLo situations where he doesn't want to make a bad call and lose the entire game. I have free time after class so I'll re-read and see what I can find.

You are right and this is also why I am still alive. Even if we lynch a scum today (which we HAVE to do) we will still be in LyLo tomorrow and I know I'll have difficulties to read someone in LyLo. This is why I voteblocked, I am since the beginning of the game convinced that one of Glass/Mr. Bump is scum.

Otolia claimed scum because he didn't want the responsibility of being faced with a LyLo situation.

I don't get how "trying way too hard to escape a lynch" is a scumtell. Not wanting to be lynched is a nulltell. Yes, the consequences are more dire in the event that the lynchee is Town, but I can think of

very

few situations in which anyone would knowingly resign themselves to their lynch, regardless of alignment.

I'll address more in a bit. Need to stay more active in this.

[Olinea]

By the same logic of scum always quickhammer, if scum notice town voting town, all an intelligent scum needs to do is go "LOOK I'M NOT VOTING, NOBODY ELSE IS VOTING, SO ONE OF THOSE TWO IS SCUM": a safer and (from what everybody is saying, it would appear to be an) equally effective alternative.

Actually, all intelligent scum need to do is wait for their buddy to show up at the same time and VOTE: X, VOTE: X. Pretty sure that’s how you win games. Of course, I don’t need to tell you how scum plays in LyLo. Given that you’re from the UK, I could reasonably expect a Hoppster/Bump or Hoppster/Otolia team to coordinate a quickhammer with relative ease (though with Otolia’s vote, I’m inclined to rule that out). Hoppster/Glass would be more difficult because of Canada but ehhhh. Anyways. (just realized I’m the only American here… )

Before Olinea voted, I said that I was going to vote Hoppster if the situation didn't evolve. In that case why would have Olinea take the initiative if he was a scum with me ? Or even if he was scum alone ? It makes no sense at all.

Classic scum tactics. Distancing/grouping your scumbuddy by attacking two or more people people (in this case Olinea and myself - you threatened to vote us), and one of them is your scumbuddy. Makes it more difficult to find your scumbuddy when you flip scum. Case in point proved when you say now that you were going to vote

me

at the time, when you actually said you were going to vote

Olinea OR myself

.

This is a complete misrep of Otolia’s statement. Not once did he ever express intent to vote for me. He’s saying he planned to vote YOU and that it wouldn’t make sense for me to put myself on the line instead of Otolia from an Oli-Oto scumteam standpoint.

Oh, and if you’d like to talk about keeping your scumbuddy within arm’s length,

Mega FoS: Otolia, silavor

FoS: Glass, MrBump, DarkFlashlight

Uh-yup.

I’m going to dinner now, when I get back I’ll see what I can dredge on Hoppster.

My meta senses are tingling and I think MrBump is Town, by the way. He’s bamboozled me in the past but after being in 4 games with him already (this is #5/#6) and following along with 3 of his others which I wasn’t involved in, I’m starting to differentiate TownBump from ScumBump. Meta argument isn’t worth a damn on its own but something’s unsettling me about Glass today. When I reread Hoppster I’ll look deeper into the ties between them. I still maintain a Town read on Otolia.

[Olinea]

I'm here and composing a case.

Glass/Otolia is a disproven scumteam, those two could have dropped the ==========[ ]

long

ago.

Unless we have a trolling scumteam, I have in my sights Hoppster + Glass/Bump/Otolia

However, ScumGlass could've hammered TownOtolia there, so he's cleared FMPOV.

This leaves Hoppster + Bump or Hoppster + Otolia. I

still

think Otolia is Town. I've got some time, time to go a-divin' through Darla and Hoppster's ISOs.

[Olinea]

Oli, who do you think is scum? Hopp-bump or Hopp-oli?

Urk. Flip-flopping on this one. If you gave me a daykill and told me to immediately shoot one of the two, I'd ask to borrow a coin. I've been trying to get in a DBE/Hoppster reread but it's Dead Week here and I've been trying to limit my time on MS in preparation for exams. Bump meta vs. Otolia's PM? It's a big clincher, to be honest. I'd rather focus on getting Hoppster out of the way... I would think that, given your confTown status, today's your last day to help us, and I've got one right here but I need to get up a case to convince you (or Bump, if Otolia's bussing). I need to make time tomorrow for this.

ProTip: Otolia is scum.

Where's your vote, then?

[Olinea]

Well, that saves me the trouble of purging the Hoppster ISO.

IT HAD PICTURES, TOO

[Olinea]

BEHOLD

OLINEA'S AMAZING INCOMPLETE ISO OF DBE

(credit to Allie Brosh for the pictures... 5 points to anyone who knows where they're from)

Also the whole thing of 'and SE is probably scum' is bullshit and pure WIFOM. I get the idea of it, I've even thought it was good strategy until I was in 3 games with two noob scum. And you're also conveniently excluding yourself from that, when you're the IC, are you not? That is a null tell, as this is purely a random set up, as often expressed by every mod who is asked, and your use of that sort of play-logic as the IC concerns me. It's not that you believe it but that you pointedly expressed something that we both know is nulltell. ESPECIALLY when all the noobies are going to look to you for guidance for how to play and understand this game. IGMEOY.

Alright, this one took a bit of investigating, but it was of importance. Here we’ve got Darla attacking chkflip for saying that the SEs are usually scum or something. So I wanted to know where he said anything of the sort and purged his ISO. It was a short read, since this was made on Page 2, and – lo and behold – chkflip never makes a statement of the sort. His first post outlines that Darla/Sakako are the SEs, and that he’s played with Darla before, and proceeds to vote for her, but

he doesn’t ever make this specific claim

.

Sakako and DarlaBlueEyes are the SE's. All that really means is that they've played a couple games onsite. I've actually played in a few games with DBE - you know what

that

means...

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes

RVSing DBE based because they’ve played together = “The SEs are likely to be scum”? This seemed like an

extremely

forced attack on chkflip for something that he didn’t even do. It also reeks of paranoia, and looks to be the tiniest excuse to take a bite out of the IC.

So stuff happens, and Common Man pulls his self-vote to L-1 schtick. Darla’s take on Common Man:

I really do not like CM, and agree with Oli saying it was a bad bad appeal to emotion.

Seems to me like noob scum who got caught, got upset, and didn't have the experience to know how to handle it clamly

. He may have hoped a self vote would make him look less scummy, when it made him look more to me, and as for the L-1 thing I reckon he didn't know that he was making the 4th vote.

In the very next post…

CM - being defeatist, while sometimes it seems the only option when you're on the chopping block, is not going to do you or anyone else any good. If you can't explain yourself any better, then start scum hunting.

By the last of your post are you saying you don't think there is already scum on your wagon? Who do you think could be scum so far?

… Darla addresses Common Man like a townie. She encourages him to give reads and scumhunt – would you ask someone who you thought was scum to do that? Hell if I would.

I want more pictures in this ISO, so here you go.



Anyways,

DBE vs. chkflip: Round II

CM has played scummy, he doesn't get to 'get out of jail free' because he might be nooby, or the fact that he's played the emotionally distressed card either. If he can't handle being pressured for scummy behavior then he probably shouldn't be playing this game, because it's going to happen. What I find very interesting is your defense of him, and almost certainty he is town. I'd wager he's scum, and you're his buddy and you're refusing to let him be our D1 lynch by trying to paint me bad for voting against scummy actions, OR you're scum and he's town and you know his alignment so you can defend him without cause for worry.

Alright, so here we have DBE attacking chkflip for thinking Common Man is Town. In all cases Darla seems to be thinking Scumchk instead of Townchk who has a Town read. It’s only presenting one side of the coin, confirmation bias,

whatever

you want to call it.

[Olinea]

Olinea/Hoppster is most likely now. I feel like an idiot over Otolia now, and it is worth noting Olinea posted his ridiculously short ISO (no offence, I made a short one on Otolia too ) after Hoppster claimed scum, as if it was a poor attempt to gain TownPoints. More likely, it was an answer to my request to see amazing pictures.

I'm sorry, are you serious?

I gather that you somehow think I drummed up an incomplete ISO to make a case on someone who was hammered already, is this correct? How does posting my unfinished case on Hoppster somehow translate to feebly flailing to buy myself towncred? I've said that the ISO was incomplete, you realize -- and, contrary to what you seem to be making it out to be -- my absence was due to study sessions for Chem and Physics -- I'd be uploading pictures of the notes if I were so inclined but my dorm room is a

mess

and I can't find the cable >_>.

Yes. I posted this unfinished ISO after Hoppster was hammered. Did you think that Hoppster claiming scum post-lynch would be the final nail in the coffin to spur me into posting it? No. Hoppster's been confirmed scum to me ever since I saw no traces of a quickhammer after my vote. I didn't need a case to prove it to myself.

In addition, your immediate reversal from...

ProTip: Otolia is scum.

...to...

Olinea/Hoppster is most likely now.

... comes across as a feeble way of throwing what little of a case you possibly can against me in preparation for LyLo. Your only evidence for your sudden switch from Otolia, the person who you voted in LyLo, the person who has consistently stayed in

your

scumreads for the entire game, to me is something which you claim is simply "worth noting"? That I posted an unfinished ISO which would've gone to waste seeing as how Hoppster was hammered before I could finish it, and that somehow paints me as someone scrambling to get towncred from a LyLo bus? Uh-uh. That doesn't fly with me.

[Olinea]

Posting from downstairs in my dorm. As soon as I get back up I'm kicking one of my roommates off the internet (why they included only 2 internet ports in a triple is beyond me). Not that either of you are waiting on tenterhooks, seeing as how you're asleep : /

The mod is always forgotten...
~Nacho

[Olinea]

EBWOP: To post my case.

[Olinea]

Spoiler: Day 1 Votecounts

Votecount 1-2:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (1) -

DarlaBlueEyes

Common Man

(1) -

DarkFlashlight

,
Spikkle (1) -

Common Man

,

Kagetora

(0 )-
Sondanaa (1) -

Sakako

,

Sakako

(0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(1) -

chkflip

,

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (4): Otolia, Spikkle,

Kagetora

, Sondanaa,

Votecount 1-3:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (1) -

DarlaBlueEyes

,

Common Man

(1) -

DarkFlashlight

,
Spikkle (1) -

Common Man

,

Kagetora

(1)- Spikkle,
Sondanaa (1) -

chkflip

,

Sakako

(0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3): Otolia, Sondanaa,

Sakako

(No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

,)

Votecount 1-4:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (1) -

DarlaBlueEyes

,

Common Man

(1) -

DarkFlashlight

,
Spikkle (0) -

Kagetora

(1)- Spikkle,
Sondanaa (1) -

chkflip

,

Sakako

(0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3): Otolia, Sondanaa,

Sakako

No Lynch (2):

Kagetora

,

Common Man

Votecount 1-5:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
GreyICE (0) -

Common Man

(3) -

DarkFlashlight

,

Sakako

,

DarlaBlueEyes

Spikkle (0) -

Kagetora

(1)- Spikkle,
Olinea (1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): Olinea,

Common Man

No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

,


Votecount 1-6:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
GreyICE (0) -

Common Man

(2) -

DarkFlashlight

,

DarlaBlueEyes

Spikkle (0) -

Kagetora

(1)- Spikkle,
Olinea (1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3): Olinea,

Common Man

,

Sakako

No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

,

Votecount 1-7:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
GreyICE (0) -

Common Man

(2) -

DarlaBlueEyes

, MrBump
MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(0)-
Olinea (1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(1) -

DarkFlashlight

DarlaBlueEyes

(1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3): Olinea,

Common Man

,

Sakako

No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

,

Votecount 1-8:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (1) - Olinea

Common Man

(3) -

DarlaBlueEyes

, MrBump,

Sakako

MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(1)-

chkflip

Olinea (1) - Otolia

Sakako

(1) -

DarkFlashlight

DarlaBlueEyes

(0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (1):

Common Man

No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

,

Votecount 1-9:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(2) -

Sakako

,

DarlaBlueEyes

MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(1)-

chkflip

Olinea (1) - Otolia

Sakako

(3) -

DarkFlashlight

,

Glass

, Olinea

DarlaBlueEyes

(0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (1): MrBump
No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

Votecount 1-10:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (2) - MrBump,

Sakako

Glass

(1) -

DarlaBlueEyes

MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(0) -
Olinea (0) -

Sakako

(3) -

Glass

, Olinea,

chkflip

DarlaBlueEyes

(0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2):

DarkFlashlight

, Otolia
No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

Votecount 1-11:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (2) - MrBump,

Sakako

Glass

(1) -

DarlaBlueEyes

MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(0) -
Olinea (0) -

Sakako

(3) - Olinea,

chkflip

,

Glass

DarlaBlueEyes

(0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2):

DarkFlashlight

, Otolia
No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

Votecount 1-12:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (1) -

Sakako

Glass

(1) -

DarlaBlueEyes

MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(0) -
Olinea (0) -
L-1

Sakako

(4) - Olinea,

chkflip

,

Glass

, MrBump

DarlaBlueEyes

(0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2):

DarkFlashlight

, Otolia
No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

The End of Day 1 (Votecount 1-13):

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (1) -

Sakako

Glass

(1) -

DarlaBlueEyes

MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(0) -
Olinea (0) -

Sakako

(LYNCH) - Olinea,

chkflip

,

Glass

, MrBump,

DarkFlashlight

DarlaBlueEyes

(0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2):

DarkFlashlight

, Otolia
No Lynch (1):

Kagetora

Spoiler: Day 2 Votecounts

Votecount 2-1:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(2)-

Glass

, MrBump
Olinea (0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(2) -

DarkFlashlight

,

Kagetora

Not Voting (3): Otolia, Olinea,

DarlaBlueEyes

Votecount 2-2:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -

Kagetora

(2) -

Glass

, MrBump
Olinea (0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(2) -

DarkFlashlight

,

Kagetora

Not Voting (3): Otolia, Olinea,

DarlaBlueEyes

Votecount 2-3:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -
L-1

Kagetora

(3) -

Glass

, MrBump, Olinea
Olinea (0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(2) -

DarkFlashlight

,

Kagetora

Not Voting (2): Otolia,

DarlaBlueEyes

Votecount 2-4:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -
L-1

Kagetora

(3) -

Glass

, MrBump, Olinea
Olinea (0) -

DarlaBlueEyes

(2) -

DarkFlashlight

,

Kagetora

Not Voting (2): Otolia,

DarlaBlueEyes

Votecount 2-5:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -
L-1

silavor

(3) -

Glass

, MrBump, Olinea
Olinea (1) - Otolia

DarlaBlueEyes

(2) -

DarkFlashlight

Not Voting (2):

DarlaBlueEyes

,

silavor

Votecount 2-6:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -
L-1

silavor

(3) -

Glass

, MrBump, Olinea
Olinea (1) - Otolia

DarlaBlueEyes

(2) -

DarkFlashlight

,

silavor

Not Voting (1):

DarlaBlueEyes

Votecount 2-7:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -
L-1

silavor

(3) -

Glass

, MrBump, Olinea
Olinea (0) -
L-1

Hoppster

(3) -

DarkFlashlight

,

silavor

, Otolia
Not Voting (1):

Hoppster

Votecount 2-8:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (2) -

silavor

, MrBump

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -

silavor

(2) -

Glass

, Olinea,
Olinea (0) -

Hoppster

(2) -

DarkFlashlight

, Otolia
Not Voting (1):

Hoppster

Votecount 2-9:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (1) -

silavor

Glass

(0) -
MrBump (0) -

silavor

(4) -

Glass

, Olinea, MrBump, Otolia
Olinea (0) -

Hoppster

(1) -

DarkFlashlight

Not Voting (1):

Hoppster

Spoiler: Day 3 Votecount

Votecount 3-1:

DarkFlashlight

(0) -
Otolia (0) -

Glass

(1) -

Hoppster

MrBump (0) -
Olinea (0) -
L-1

Hoppster

(2) - Olinea, Otolia
Not Voting (2):

Glass

, MrBump,

Not shown is MrBump’s vote on Otolia.



Glass was pretty damn accurate when he said Bump and I were voting together. But what makes him scum and Otolia Town to me are:

~Vote Counts 2-6 to 2-7. Kagetora is at L-1 with people asking for a hammer and

Otolia L-1s Hoppster instead

. That’d be an unnecessary busjob where he could have instead just as easily hammered Kagetora. He put Darla/Hoppster at risk and left it there for some time… he eventually hammered Kagetora but fucked if he wouldn’t have done it in the most efficient way possible for scum.

~Then we have a bit of a back-and-forth where MrBump tries for an Otolia counterwagon instead of the Kage lynch… not sure what to make of it. After I make my post explaining my Town read on Otolia due to the PM and Otolia finding his comfort levels, seemingly trying to emulate GreyICE, I found this…

@ Olinea: Grey's smart. I don't see how it's not feasible he sent Olinea a fake PM to explain his town 'reads'.

…which looks like a way to try and break the Town read I had on Otolia. Let’s look at it this way. Kage seemed like an inevitable lynch, or at least Otolia. Assuming Town Otolia in the Kage lynch scenario, Hoppster knows he’s got to get a mislynch in on Glass (obvtown), me (his strongest Town read – check his FoSes upon his replacing in and reaction to my LyLo vote) or Otolia. Looked to me like Hoppster setting up for an Otolia lynch in LyLo. In the event of an Otolia lynch D2, drive the Kagetora lynch in LyLo. Easy pickin’s.

~But the crowned jewel any case against Bump is his LyLo vote vs. Otolia. Let’s look at this a bit more closely. Pay special attention to the bold in the last paragraph.

Otolia, first off, tomorrow most likely Glass will be dead (for reasons I'll say later). Secondly, why would we rush today, just to kill someone you think is scum so we can be prepared for tomorrow when

we don't know he's scum

?

Thirdly, have you read a single post I've made in this entire game? That is not the whole bloody case on you! Urgh, I can't be bothered with this argument any more.

VOTE: Otolia

I don't see myself moving at all from this vote all day, and I severely doubt Glass will suddenly hammer now I've voted. I'd like more out of this day,

but as soon as we get a flip it's pretty easy to deduce a scumteam, and I'm pretty sure of the team as it is.

And then, when he unvotes,

Also, Olinea completely slipped my mind when I voted. If he's scum, it's Game Over, and I'm not taking that risk.

THIS IS THE CLINCHER. THIS IS WHY IT’S MRBUMP.

Let’s do a bit of analysis. There are 5 players in the game:

Hoppster
MrBump
Olinea
Otolia
Glass

MrBump votes Otolia, so he thinks Otolia’s scum? Well, that narrows his scumteams to:

Otolia-Glass
Otolia-Hoppster
Otolia-Olinea

Bump already seems to think Glass will be nightkilled N3, obviously indicating he thinks Glass is Town.

Otolia-Hoppster
Otolia-Olinea

Hoppster is at L-1 at the time of voting, so if Bump believed in an Otolia-Hoppster team there would be no incentive NOT to hammer Hoppster.

Otolia-Olinea

So it’s Otolia-Olinea?

Also, Olinea completely slipped my mind when I voted. If he's scum, it's Game Over, and I'm not taking that risk.

LOL

LITERALLY NO SCUMTEAMS TO JUSTIFY AN OTOLIA VOTE



This earlier comment of his only further incriminates him…

This just got a lot more interesting. Basically every scumteam possible has to be bussing like crazy (except the Olinea/Otolia one) and I can't see them bussing that hard, although doing it in 5P LYLO sets scum up to win 3P LYLO nicely. As you all know, I'm more suspicious of Otolia and have been all game,

but now's not the time for individual scum, now's the time for finding the team.

He tried to start the counterwagon on Otolia, saying he’s got the scumteam all pinned down when there isn’t any sort of feasible pairing he can make with Otolia. Then he unvotes, realizing that Glass is inclined to hammer Hoppster anyways and that would incriminate him like

hell

as soon as Hoppster flips. Then he wish-washes on the hammer until Glass throws it,

then

tries to throw dirt at me for posting my unfinished Hoppster case after his own prompting. He tried to drive a mislynch in LyLo on Otolia, and then when Hoppster’s down and out, he scrambles to pick up the pieces. Too little, too late.



It’s Bump. It’s always been Bump and if it ain’t him I will kick myself until my ass turns black and blue, but it sure as hell ain’t Otolia and that’s good enough for me. There isn’t any way he can sweet-talk himself out of his Otolia vote, or me out of mine.

Vote: MrBump

[Olinea]

The mod is always forgotten...
~Nacho

the what now



Otolia, I know you're waiting on a response from Bump, but what's your take on the argument? How Bump said he had a team logically picked out, how he kept saying the day should've been devoted to finding the pair, but, in all three circumstances, he

can't

have justified a vote on you and did so anyways, presumably to counterwagon Hoppster? And then when Glass drops the =========[ ], he goes all "Hoppster was scum? omg i should've hammered a long time ago, lol guise i meant to hammer and all that but i didn't and instead pushed a logically unreasonable Otolia wagon"?

What about this?

Forgot to do this:

VOTE: Otolia

UNVOTE: Otolia

I'm 99% certain Otolia's scum, but it's better to be pretty sure of a team first.

And, after that,

Fuck it. I don't see myself changing on Hoppster today.

Vote: Hoppster

Hoppster vote sucks. We're a loooong way from the deadline, and there is no point in just throwing a vote out into the open for no other reason than you can't see yourself moving from him

Allow me to rephrase. The VOTE is good. The TIMING is bad.

No?

I'm 99% certain Otolia's scum, but it's better to be pretty sure of a team first.

His comment to Glass:

Although it is possible you're scum, but I think Hoppster more. I don't want to vote until I see what Otolia has to say about it

Otolia is scum, but then he wants Otolia to weigh in?

Still no?

How about after you L-1 Hoppster?

There's no real need for an unvote as neither Glass or I plan to hammer, but it'd still be cool if we unvoted instead of just sticking to one person.

Hm?

This just got a lot more interesting. Basically every scumteam possible has to be bussing like crazy (except the Olinea/Otolia one)

(except Hoppster-Bump)

I'd like your thoughts on these arguments. Hell, I still think the first and main point is

air-tight

, but still. What're you thinking right now?

[Olinea]

~Then we have a bit of a back-and-forth where MrBump tries for an Otolia counterwagon instead of the Kage lynch… not sure what to make of it. After I make my post explaining my Town read on Otolia due to the PM and Otolia finding his comfort levels, seemingly trying to emulate GreyICE, I found this…

First, loluthinkimscum but then suddenly you don't know what to make of it? Well, Otolia was far more obvious than Kage for one, plus there was no point in just voting Kage when I could put pressure on others. I do this all the time, and you should know that by now.

Oh? Well, by all means, please point out what part of that section indicates a scumread on you. ‘Cause I’m not sure where you’re getting that idea from.

This is why it's reeeeaaally not.
"Pretty sure" = "Pretty sure".
"Pretty sure" =/= "100% confident".
And again, you should know I'm nearly always wrong in my townreads. But I'm not going to meta my way out of this, because you think by exaggerating the little points and repeating yourself makes you appear more town.

At the time, I thought it was an Otolia/Hoppster scumteam. I'd like to refer the honourable gentleman to where I said "Pretty sure". Why would I hammer Hoppster if I was only "pretty sure" he was scum in freakin' LYLO? What are you, crazy? In fact, this is really condemning for you, which I will explain later in the post.

Why would you hammer Hoppster? Because

everybody

knew that there was at least one scum in Hoppster-Olinea. Hell, all three of Glass/Bump/Otolia expressed suspicion of this idea:

Bump: thoughts on an oli-hopp team?

I think Otolia/Olinea is the most likely.

Hoppster/Olinea is the second most likely IMO

Why would I unvote ? It is now evident that that Hoppster is scum. Otherwise he would be a dead townie by now.

So either Olinea is a bussing scum

OR one of Glass/Mr. Bump is scum.

So you’re advocating strict conservatism and 100% confidence in LyLo (you should practice what you preach, by the way; if you weren’t going to vote Hoppster without being 100% sure then you’d have never unvoted Otolia)? (and before you call misrep, what other line is there between “pretty sure” and “100% sure”? I’d love to hear it) How is it, then, that you can feasibly consider a Hoppster-Oli scumteam but still vote outside of us? You know what the chances of finding scum in Hoppster-Oli was? 100%. Yet you claim Hoppster-Oli was feasible and voted Otolia. How in the world does that make sense?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
*chokes*
Yeah, no. LYLO is the most important part of the entire game. You either win, or you lose. Voting the wrong person makes you lose. I dislike losing. Immensely. I'm NOT going to just shove down a vote without thinking about it, or even if I'm only "pretty sure".

Again, we come back to the “pretty sure” argument. Your two unvotes on Otolia certainly indicate “pretty sure” over “100% sure”.

Gee Olinea, you like to exaggerate.

While I appreciate you even put the effort in to get a picture to appear more town, it's not working, Olinea. Otolia/Olinea was possible, but I was more thinking Otolia/Hoppster. I was highly confident it was Otolia/SOMEONE, though. And d'you know what else? That wasn't even why I voted. I didn't say it at the time because I thought it would appear scummy that I would do it, but seeing how you're using it to attack me, I kinda have to.

Look at the time stamps on my post vote and Glass's "clear bitches".
Vote: "Tue May 03, 2011 2:25 pm"
Post: "Tue May 03, 2011 2:34 pm"
Nine whole minutes. The vote was merely to clear Glass. I was 99% sure he was town, and a clear at this stage helps everything and stops people throwing suspicion onto him.

Hm?

That’s not what it sounds like in your vote post.

I don't see myself moving at all from this vote all day, and I severely doubt Glass will suddenly hammer now I've voted. I'd like more out of this day, but as soon as we get a flip it's pretty easy to deduce a scumteam, and I'm pretty sure of the team as it is.

If your vote was for the sole objective of clearing a Glass-Hoppster team, why is the last sentence aimed to get a flip of Otolia?

Oh, sure, we get this…

If Glass doesn't hammer, he's ConfTown so will die tonight. That's the reasoning

…so your reasoning behind the Otolia vote is to determine Glass’s alignment? Then why are you mentioning flips?

Why would I say he slipped my mind AFTER Glass already mentioned him in his post?

remind

(rɪˈmaɪnd)
— vb (usually foll by of; may take a clause as object or an infinitive )

to cause (a person) to remember (something or to do something); make (someone) aware (of something he may have forgotten): remind me to phone home ; flowers remind me of holidays

First sentence is so misrepp-y.
"Tried to start the counterwagon on Otolia"- That was Hoppster.
"saying he's got the scumteam all pinned down"- Never happened.
"when there isn't any sort of feasible pairing he can make with Otolia"- Otolia/Hoppster for one, and Otolia/YOU was also possible.

~Alright. “Tried to add to the counterwagon on Otolia, saying he’s got the scumteam all pinned down when there isn’t any sort of feasible pairing he can make with Otolia”
~

I'm pretty sure of the team as it is.

~If you believed Otolia/Hoppster, you’d have hammered Hoppster. And I realize that Oto-Oli was possible, but if I supposedly “slipped your mind”, this wasn’t being considered at the time of your statement (see #2).

You repeated a phrase like this for most of Day Three. "I THINK IT MUST BE HOPPSTER PLUS SOMEONE, BUT GLASS AND OTOLIA IS TOWN BUT I HAVE NO IDEA WHO THE OTHER SCUM IS". Hmm, wonder why? You were hoping someone would vote Otolia, which Hoppster started, which explains THIS post:

Hm? I don’t ever recall saying I “had no idea who the other scum” was. In fact, at the beginning of D3,

I'm thinking Hoppster + MrBump. Bump is only by process of elimination since I can't see myself voting for Otolia and Glass is, yeah, pretty damn Town.

Hell if I was going to try and find a team at that point in time. I needed the Hoppster lynch. Hoppster was confirmed scum to me, and it wasn’t going to do a damn bit of good trying to find out Hopp-Bump vs. Hopp-Oto without making sure Hoppster was lynched.

Even though I'd EXPLAINED said vote and why I unvoted. Annoyed you couldn't trollhammer, bro?

Alright, when you argue stuff like…

At the time, I thought it was an Otolia/Hoppster scumteam. I'd like to refer the honourable gentleman to where I said "Pretty sure". Why would I hammer Hoppster if I was only "pretty sure" he was scum in freakin' LYLO? What are you, crazy?

Immensely. I'm NOT going to just shove down a vote without thinking about it, or even if I'm only "pretty sure"

I was highly confident it was Otolia/SOMEONE, though.

The vote was merely to clear Glass.

(Glass-Otolia disproven)

…and then say…

ProTip: Otolia is scum.

…which demonstrates increased certainty in your Otolia read (hell, 100% certainty, considering you keep claiming you were “pretty sure” – that doesn’t look “pretty sure” to me) without a vote on Otolia, what the hell were you waiting for? Annoyed you couldn’t trollhammer, bro?

The entirety of Day Three you kept saying Otolia was town, Hoppster was scum, you "weren't sure" on me and Glass was town. You also acted just CERTAIN Glass and Otolia was town. There was no doubt that they were Town. Scum make that mistake a lot, and seeing how you're never,

EVER

scum, I could see you making it.

Now, the point I'm making with this entire thing, is that you basically acted like you KNEW it was me and Hoppster the whole of Day Three, just softly. You kinda "wish-washed" on me then came out all guns blazing. You had complete certainity in GlassTown and HoppScum, and kinda labelled Otolia as Town and kinda labelled me as Scum.

Oh, man. So we’re using a convoluted meta argument AND misrepping me? Let’s go look at some of what I said during D3.

Excuse me?

When did I ever claim to have the game figured out?

My reads aren't settled, you know.

Glass.

Deadline is May 3rd.

Today's lynch is me or Hoppster. I've got scum on the end of my reel and I'm not giving it up for a 1/3 shot. So instead of trying to spread suspicion onto both Hoppster and myself by claiming LyLo bussing has a high success rate, and

also

MrBump, how 'bout you start taking a stance on this?

something’s unsettling me about Glass today.

Oli, who do you think is scum? Hopp-bump or Hopp-oli?

Urk. Flip-flopping on this one. If you gave me a daykill and told me to immediately shoot one of the two, I'd ask to borrow a coin. I've been trying to get in a DBE/Hoppster reread but it's Dead Week here and I've been trying to limit my time on MS in preparation for exams. Bump meta vs. Otolia's PM? It's a big clincher, to be honest. I'd rather focus on getting Hoppster out of the way... I would think that, given your confTown status, today's your last day to help us, and I've got one right here but I need to get up a case to convince you (or Bump, if Otolia's bussing). I need to make time tomorrow for this.

???

You obviously set the game up for LYLO. You bussed Hoppster, voiced minor suspicions on me and Otolia to act as if you didn't have a battle plan, but you slipped up every so often. Hence THIS post:

Nope,

you

set up the game for LyLo. 5P LyLo. You refused to bus Hoppster, voiced minor suspicions on him and me and then back out of it by saying you were only “pretty confident” which I dunno

how

that excuses the fact that you voted Otolia twice and then said “Protip: Otolia is scum” sans vote, flip right back onto me after Hoppster’s hammered, and try to paint a scummy picture of me out of it. Here’s food for thought, Bump. How can you claim I…

had complete certainity in GlassTown and HoppScum, and kinda labelled Otolia as Town and kinda labelled me as Scum.

…and yet…

Going into Day Four you had to act as if you thought both me and Otolia were Town

…and still yet…

bussed Hoppster, voiced minor suspicions on me and Otolia

Also, I find it

extraordinarily

laughable how you can accuse me of this…

so then you could suddenly "realise" it's me

…and in the very next paragraph…

Olinea is scum, and I should've seen it before.

I thought I would have a better conclusion than this, but whatever.

END

[Olinea]

[Olinea]

Dude. My bus-happy scum meta actually paid off this time.

[Olinea]

Mega FoS: Otolia, silavor

FoS: Glass, MrBump, DarkFlashlight

You have no idea how hard I RAEGed at my laptop when you posted this, btw

[Olinea]

I'll let Hoppster post it.

[Olinea]

Scum QT

Worst Scum QT ever, but eh.

I still don't like his face.

[Olinea]

So

I'm gonna be the buzzkill of this gag here and just say it. I'm Town, and you did indeed hammer scum.

Congrats, Otolia. Good game.

[Olinea]

Why "nooooooooooo"? You won the game for us...

[Olinea]

well in that case......
PARTY TIME!
(should have killed oto, bump)

Meh. No scum leaves confirmed Town alive for LyLo unless that person is dead wrong.

[Olinea]

Yeah, I dunno. I really need to work on my scumhunting. GG scum.

Meh. I think your scumhunting was fine, I think you were mostly lynched for associative tells, as you hadn't ever mentioned Darla

or

Kage.

Also, I've been meaning to tell you, I plan on using this quote below in any game I'm an IC for and someone tries to go No Lynch. I don't know why I like it so much... but I do.

My gut feeling right now is town though, and statistically speaking, I'm probably right.

Well, here's what the statistics say.

Every single person has exactly 7/9 chance of being a townie, right now. That means, on average, every single person will be a townie.

[Olinea]

You're doing it wrong, Nacho

[Olinea]

Onto Kage:
You can't forget why someone is scummy.

Remind me to talk about this post-game.

Forgot about this.

"Forgetting" suspicions overnight usually indicates a Cop, imo.