Newbie 1104 -- Game over

[noragar]

/confirm

[noragar]

Questions to be answered,
1. What, if any, experience do you have at mafia?

This will be my second game.

2. What is your timezone?

Eastern Daylight Time (GMT-4??)

3. How often can we expect you to be posting?

I'll normally post at least once a day. More than that if involved in a discussion. This site is blocked at work though, so except on weekends, I won't be able to post during the day (or read the thread).

[noragar]

Vote: zbakal

For not posting yet.

[noragar]

Couple questions regarding acronyms. I've these two used commonly: RVS and V/LA. What do they mean? Is there an acronym page on the wiki?

RVS: Random Voting Stage. Most Mafia games start with a phase wherein people vote for silly reasons, until someone slips up or makes a legitimate accusation.

V/LA: Vacation/Limited Access thread, where players should post if they won't be checking MafiaScum.net for more than a few days.

Glossary is here:
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?tit ... reviations

[noragar]

Just echoing FOS: on CaptainCuddles. While taking someone to L-1 early on isn't too clear an indicator (I made the same move as a townie in my first game before later thinking through all of the ramifications and deciding it wasn't a smart thing to do), his explanation of it seems really convoluted. Whether or not there's a cop/doctor in the game, it's certainly better for town to lynch a scum on Day One than it is to lynch a random townie. He seemed to be trying to argue that lynching a townie was fine since it increased the odds of hitting scum later on and narrowed down the suspects that the cop would need to investigate.

While it's not "GAME OVER" if the town lynches a townie first, I'd certainly take my chances trying to lynch a scum on Day 1 instead.

Still plenty of time to see what develops. No need to rush into a decision in the first few days.

[noragar]

Unvote

Just taking my RVS vote away from gbevil since there's really no reason to have it there anymore.

I have the same suspicions as others about CC and Frostbite, but nothing yet to indicate whether it's newb play or scum play, so we'll see what happens. Looking forward to getting some content from the Raz spot.

[noragar]

Scum skimming detected. Easy town cred attempt detected.

FoS

: noragar

What is scum skimming? It wasn't in the glossary and I can't really respond to the accusation without knowing what it is.

As far as easy town cred, I assume you mean answering someone's question about what abbreviations meant? Really??? That's scummy??? Why single me out to FoS instead of also FoS'ing Twisted who said almost the exact same thing at the exact same time?

[noragar]

Vote:CaptainCuddles

[noragar]

@noragar, care to explain your vote?

I suspected him early on (see http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p3046023) and since that time, he hasn't said anything which would allay those suspicions, and I don't see anybody else as a more likely candidate at the moment.

[noragar]

I'm saying that the question was answered not two posts above the one I quoted. Answering the question itself isn't scummy, no, but the fact that you best case scenario "didn't see" the answer means that, at best, you were skimming the hell out of the thread at that point. Meaning you're scum just trying to blend in with that post. Doesn't sit well, especially since the timing wasn't as close as you're insinuating here.

Check the time stamps.

CC asked a question at 6:55pm
TS posted an answer to the question at 6:58pm
TS posted again to correct the link from the first response at 6:58pm
TS posted to say "my name is on that page" at 6:59pm
I posted my response at 7:00pm

So your argument is that I saw the question that TS had already answered, realized (as scum) that this would be a brilliant opportunity to make myself seem like town, went off to find the URL of the glossary (instead of just copying the link from TS's message since his first link was wrong), created a mail message, copied the two definitions from the glossary into the mail message, copied the URL for the glossary into the mail message, and sent the message. All of this in two minutes???

You really think this is a more likely scenario than both of us seeing the question at the same time and answering it at the same time?

Yes, I saw after I posted my answer that TS had already responded also. But you can't go back and edit or delete posts, so there it sits.

So again - why is my "skimming the hell out of the thread" and answering a question more suspicious than TS skimming the hell out of the thread (two minutes sooner even) and answering the same question?

[noragar]

Your argument that you didn't skim is correct. It's unlikely that you saw TS's response. You were probably busy finding the link while he was posting.

At the same time, TS didn't skim. He answered the question after it was asked. He did the exact same thing as you. Don't try to deflect blame on a random person while trying to claim your own innocence. That looks scummy.

I'm not trying to deflect blame. My argument is that there's no blame to be deflected. My question is to Chkflip as to why when he sees two people do the exact same thing, he FoS's one of them and says nothing about the other one. At no time did I mean to imply that TS did anything scummy because he didn't.

Also, based on the context from Chkflip's message I had assumed that "scum skimming" was constantly reading the thread looking for an opportunity to jump in and do something. Based on gbevil's response, it apparently means something else. So I'm still looking for a definition. So if somebody could wait the appropriate amount of time to show that they're not "scum skimming" and take whatever precautions are necessary to make sure nobody else is answering the question at the same time, I'd appreciate if someone could explain what it is.

Thanks.

[noragar]

There was more interest in your reaction to being called out at all tbh. Town motivated response imo.

If you're getting a town-tell from me, why are you so quick to jump on the bandwagon just because TwistedSpoon asked you to?

[noragar]

Spoon's initial vote seems to be with little to no reasoning, why not question that?

Because it was pretty obvious that TS's vote was based on little reason and there wasn't anything to be gained by questioning it or in trying to defend myself against non-existent reasons. I thought at the time that there was more information to be gained by questioning your curious behavior.

[noragar]

he copied my vote with very little reason to back it up.

I had FoS'd CC four days before your vote (see post #76) and he was the only one I ever stated any strong suspicion about, so I don't see how you can say I copied your vote. As far as piling on votes with very little reason to back it up, how about what's going on with me. The reasons I've seen for the votes against me are:

1. Answering an easy question to try to appear more town
2. Scum skimming because I skimmed over a post that hadn't been made yet when I answered that question.
3. Trying to blend in and not appear scummy. Isn't it good strategy to try to not appear scummy whether you're scum or town?
4. Not posting very much even though I've posted more than half the other people in the game.
5. Copying a vote without reason, even though I stated my reasons before the vote I "copied" was made.

I guess if I'm going out, I may as well have my vote on the person who tried hardest to orchestrate it.

Unvote
Vote: Chkflip

My initial read on the spot when there was nothing else to go on was that of Vanilla townie since I thought that when the original person disappeared immediately, I though it was more likely that someone would just walk away after getting dealt a VT role than either a scum or a power role. But since then, Chkflip's actions make no sense to me. First he tries to fabricate a very weak case against me. Then after that fails, he admits that my responses seem town, then immediately votes for me because someone asked him to. I tried to get more information about his justifications, but it looks like I may not have time to do that.

[noragar]

Well in that case, I claim Vanilla Townie.

And let my final statement be that if the town follows through and lynches me on this little evidence with more than a week to go before the deadline then I hold out very little hope at backdooring a win.

[noragar]

Oh - and a shout out to gbevil. Thanks for the support.

You're either the one townie that has a clue, or doing a good job at distancing yourself from chkflip to help your scum partnership with him - either way, something my fellow townies should keep in mind further down the road.

[noragar]

I'd probably believe your justification more if you hadn't changed your vote at the same time. And it being an OMGUS vote and attempt at shifting the blame is really making you seem scummy.

That's one reason that I didn't change my vote as soon as he started coming after me. I was trying to gather information first and solidify any case I may be able to put together. But since it appeared that I was starting to run out of time, I figured I'd get my thoughts on the record while I still could.

[noragar]

This day isn't ending until I have a fair idea of everyone's reads and I hear a proper post from Espe

How do you know that gbevil, Cuddles, Frostbite or Espe aren't going to vote for me before that happens??

[noragar]

I also suspect Chkflip (obviously, since my vote has been on him). My theory up to this point was that of the two scum, one would be from the group of active, aggressive posters (Chkflip, TS, Otolia) and the other would be one of the lurkers (Espe, Frostbite, CC). I've been getting a town read from gbevil and forest. I really don't see a TS/Chkflip partnership unless they're using the most blatant WIFOM strategy imaginable.

In this back and forth over the last couple days, I buy into TS's points more than Otolia's, and I'd be willing to go along with an Otolia lynch for D1. I'm going to go back and re-read the thread to make sure I didn't miss anything the first time through. If I don't find any new insights, I'll likely be changing my vote to Otolia later tonight.

[noragar]

what do you mean?

Just this sequence:

#177

hey flippy, wagon noragar with me

#185

You mean return to my original hunch?

UNVOTE: gbevilchaos
VOTE: noragar

Sure, why not. My avenue seems deadish right now anyway.

#250

Espe or Otolia?
who needs my vote more?

VOTE: Otolia

easy. Hate to let noragar walk off but he's not today's lynch. I prefer Lord of Graves- I mean Otolia

#251

Yes, yes.

VOTE: Otoalia

with chkflip following your vote around like a lapdog.

[noragar]

Well, I didn't pick up anything new in my re-read, so

Unvote,

Vote: Otolia

[noragar]

Yeah, I'm not sure that this vote pattern is necessarily a scum-tell either, just that if Twisted and Chkflip are partners, they're being pretty blatant about not trying to hide it.

[noragar]

Okay, here are my reads. Anything posted here is viable to change after we figure out who dies tonight.

TS: Innocent enough, he would have not started the bandwagon if he were a scum accomplice.
noragar: I think he is scum. As was said earlier, Otolia seemed protective of him and he had the same vote as Otolia, who is scum.
gbevilchaos: If you were scum, you would not have put Otolia at L-1, inviting to hammer him. So, pro-town.
chkflip: I'm suspicious of him, but if he knew Otolia were scum, he would have jumped off the bagon once he saw how many voters Otolia had. So, probably townie.
And if taking the hammer wasn't enough evidence I'm not scum, then I don't know what is.

Curious as to why you think everybody who voted for Otolia is not scum (with that vote being the main or only reason provided), with one exception. I can see the reasoning behind saying that about TS starting the wagon, and to a lesser extent gbevil and forest for finishing the wagon. But it seems to me that chkflip and I were in basically equivalent positions on the wagon. Why do you say Chkflip would have jumped off the wagon if he were scum, but I wouldn't have?

[noragar]

Welcome back.

Here's my reads at the moment:

TwistedSpoon, gbevilchaos, and the Frostbite/Haylen spot - moderately strong town reads

forest_air - null - I caught a couple things toward the end of Day 1 that made me question my previous town read on her. Not enough to suspect as scum, but something I want to keep an eye on. I'll give specifics when the time is right.

Espeonage, CaptainCuddles - null - not really enough info to make an informed decision. I suspected CC early on for the explanation of L-1ing early on, but I'm willing to attribute that to inexperience. These two have pretty much stayed in the background the whole time. That in and of itself could be reason to suspect one of them, but I don't have anything specific or any indication to indicate which would be more likely.

Chkflip - leaning scum - my most likely candidate at the moment for reasons given when I had my vote on him during Day 1. So until something happens to change my mind, that's where my vote will be:

Vote: Chkflip

[noragar]

Thanks for the very interesting analysis Haylen. Regardless of the outcome and regardless of my alignment in this game details like this will be very helpful to me down the road. I actually agree with most of what you have to say.

One thing you did miss - you say somewhere in there that I said I have experience. This is my second game. No other experience on this server, any other server, or in any real life games.

What seems to be the recurring theme in your comments has to do with the abundance of defense instead of scumhunting. I think the lack of "scumhunting" comes from a lack of experience in scum-hunting methods. I don't really know what techniques are effective and which aren't, so rather than driving the action, I've tended to sit back and observe. The kinds of things I'm looking for are inconsistency of statements or actions, faulty logic, and people making statements with unsound reasoning behind them. I didn't want to initiate much scumhunting myself because I thought I was likely to make mistakes in those same areas that I was keying in on - not due to being scum, but due to being inexperienced. While it's the goal of scum not to appear scummy, I think it's also a goal for the town not to appear scummy.

As an example, take the case of Chkflip asking Otolia "Hypothetically, if you were scum, who would be your partner?" Just a few posts back, this was pointed out as sounding like a "scummy" attempt at scumhunting. I could easily see myself making a similar kind of mistake by using ineffective scumhunting techniques drawing suspicion on myself. Or in my first game where, like CC in this game, I took someone to L-1 on Page 2 in what I thought was a valid method, but turned out to be misguided method of scumhunting.

As far as the emotional defense - I had already made the logical arguments to refute every case that was presented against me. It looked like I was still about to be lynched, so I turned to the emotional reaction. Here is where we slightly disagree. In that particular situation, I think self-survival is important. I didn't have a solid case to present for anyone else to be scum. It would have been counterproductive to stretch things and try to fabricate a case against someone. Anything I said would have been wild speculation. I didn't know 100% who should be lynched. I only knew 100% that it shouldn't be me.

I understand that as a townie, the town win condition trumps whether I'm alive or dead at the end of the game. And I have no problem taking a lynch if it helps the town's chance of winning in any way. In this instance, however, the town would have gained nothing. It would have been no different than a lynch on Page 2 during the RVS. At that point, there was no case against me that had any merit, and I really didn't see any useful information that the town would have gained with that lynch.

I have no problem being lynched if it makes logical sense to need to eliminate me as a suspect, or if my flipping town leads to a strong probability that someone else is scum, or if since I've claimed Vanilla townie it's safer to lynch me that it is to risk lynching a power role, or if I'm less experienced and thus less helpful in catching scum, or any other reason that furthers the town's game and chances of winning. But if I don't see anything like that being the case, then I'm going to fight for survival.

[noragar]

Did I say that was a mistake? Clearly it couldn't have been since I responded to Otolia throughout. Nice deflection, though, I really appreciate the effort put forth in this post. It really proves that you're really trying to grasp at your best efforts to AtE here. You an English major, by chance?

Actually, a math major.

I don't think you ever said that it was a mistake. It's quite possible that it's not a mistake for you, but it would have been a mistake for me which is what I was saying. Some people interpreted the question to be a possible scum indicator. One of my strategies during Day 1 was to not do anything that would cause myself to appear scummy because it could possibly lead to my being incorrectly lynched by the town. Since asking a question that led others to view me as scummy would have gone against my strategy, I would have viewed it as a mistake.

What does AtE mean? Anti-town Eliminate? Yes, I'm making my best efforts to eliminate those that are anti-town.

[noragar]

Yes, townies worry about finding scum. But how is it productive to look for scum in such a way that you appear to be scummier than the true scum are looking. What benefit is it to mislead the rest of the town into thinking you might be scum?

[noragar]

But now my vote on noragar is serious because I have what I need to prove that noragar is scum and chkflip is town. I'll make a post on that next.

Is this part still to come? If the proof that noragar is scum and chkflip is town is in that last post somewhere, please highlight it because I must have missed it.

Chkflip may be town, but I'm becoming more convinced that the second scum needs to be one of {chkflip, forest, or CC}.

[noragar]

Just hanging out for now until the replacement players get caught up. Even though zMuffin's not, I'm interested in seeing the rest of Haylen's walls.

[noragar]

Unvote

Chkflip hasn't been acting nearly as strangely since zMuffin took over, so I'm not as comfortable having my vote there any more. That spot's not totally off my radar, yet, but a couple other spots have moved higher on my list since the beginning of Day 2. Specifically, Espe and forest.

[noragar]

Vote: Espeonage

I agree Espe and forest are the two most likely scum candidates. I'd support a lynch of either of them at this point. I don't see myself ever voting for TS or Haylen.

[noragar]

Town: TS, Hayl
Leaning Town: noragar, forest_air, zMuffin
Null: CC
Scum: Espe (mainly due to his crazy thought process that he refuses to show in detail as well as his chronic absence)

Ditto for me, except replace noragar with gbevilchaos and drop forest_air to a category somewhere between Null and Scum.

[noragar]

Nothing to add at this point. Still voting for Espeonage.

[noragar]

Town: TS, Hayl
Leaning Town: noragar, forest_air, zMuffin
Null: CC
Scum: Espe (mainly due to his crazy thought process that he refuses to show in detail as well as his chronic absence)

Ditto for me, except replace noragar with gbevilchaos and drop forest_air to a category somewhere between Null and Scum.

I posted my reads in the post before that one, and nothing has changed since then, so I didn't see the need to repeat them.

The back and forth between Espe, Muffin, and gbevil have done nothing but solidify my opinion that espe is the other scum.

[noragar]

Well as long as Espe's going next, then it really doesn't matter which order we're lynched in. But if you're still interested in the "perfect" game, I'd strongly suggest lynching him first and then me.

[noragar]

I'm actually kind of shocked, not only that Espe was town, but that my only other most viable scum candidate was also confirmed town.

I assume that forest would have left some clues as to her Night 1 investigation. In her first few posts at the beginning of Day 2, she's insistent on two things - that chkflip is town and that I am scum. If she had investigated me and found me out to be scum, it would have been safe to claim cop and say so. So it seems to me that she investigated Chkflip and found him to be town. Several times in her first 4 or 5 posts in Day 2 she definitively asserts that chkflip is town without much solid explanation behind it. So, in my opinion, chkflip/Muffin.

I also realize that this in no way clears my name and that unless something there's been a radical change of opinion, I'm probably headed toward being lynched today. If I were in the rest of your shoes, I think I would see myself as the moist likely candidate after the flips of Espe and forest. I'll just assert again, that I am town, and ask that if I am to be lynched that you at least try to work out a way to gain some useful information from it.

[noragar]

EBWOR Looks like I left of the end of the second paragraph... "So, in my opinion, chkflip/Muffin is cleared."

[noragar]

Case why Forstbite is 99% town if Otolia flips scum

Vote: Frostbite

So he hasn't been around and I don't even think he confirmed then he swoops in and puts a guy at L-1. Lurking plus trying to get a quick lynch on the fifth page. Smells like scum.

But my main reason is because he said he wanted to stay alive. Newbie reasoingn? Maybe. But only scum should ever try to appease town.

Goes for frostbite. Even puts him at L-1. This would be a seriously bad tactic to bus their partner to almost lynch so early especially when there is so little evidence on him in RVS. Scum usually only bus when their partner is going down anyways or has more solid scumminess so that they can get credit for the scumflip. No credit would have been gained in this instance since it was an RVS wagon and no-one could tell if frosty was scum or not. Therefore it cannot be a bus

also...

So we have a guy at L-1 and all you do is talking about your personal business. Show some seriousness, when someone is at L-1, you are supposed to discuss that situation. If you don't, you are a bad townie unless, well, you are scum ...

hints that frostbite could be scum, yet it's so subtle it cannot be a bus as he wouldn't be able to get credit should frosty flip scum.

So that's why I think frostbite is really likely to be town if Otolia flips scum

Otolia lynch = -1 mafia and +1 obvtownie

what's not to like?

@Twisted

This is from post #261 which has your reasoning that Frostbite (who became Haylen) was really likely to be town. Does everything that's happened since then make you more certain or less certain of that read?

[noragar]

Who is your #1 pick as scum? Why?
Who is your #1 pick as town? Why?

Also, please list general reads of all other players.

My #1 pick as town is Muffin because forest gave a strong indication that she investigated that spot and found it to be town.

My #1 pick as scum is harder since my two leading scum reads just flipped town. I suspected CC early on when there wasn't much else to go on, but since then have softened my view on that and can attribute the early behavior to newbiness. Since Mothras has taken over, there still isn't a whole lot of material to go on, but what I have seen seems townish (logical statements, nothing out of line).

Earlier, I had strong town reads on Twisted, Haylen, and gbevil, so now I have to start over and re-evaluate everything from the beginning. This is what prompted the question above to Twisted. I'm going back and questioning the things that I had believed before to see whether they still make sense. At this point, I don't have any reason to suspect one of the four remaining players over the others.

[noragar]

In much the same way that I became more and more convinced of Otolia's guilt while Otolia and Twisted were going back and forth at the end of Day 1, I'm getting the same vibes from Haylen in this latest interaction since yesterday.

I'm curious what else Muffin has to say, so I'll honor his wishes and hold my vote until he makes that post, but that's the direction I'm leaning at this point.

I still see Muffin as the least likely scum based on forest's investigation, and I still don't see Twisted as scum after re-reading the vigor that he used when going after Otolia when there were still other options.

[noragar]

So I've been debating how best to approach this issue.

And I can't really see a way to explain why I think Haylen is town without outing my role. I also think there's a very good chance I've been rolecopped by now, anyway.

I'm doc, and I protected Twisted N1. (I also protected him N2 because I had a hunch that the reason Haylen never ISO'd Twisted or chkflip/me is because she rolecopped me N1 and the kill on Twisted was blocked - it made sense at the time)

Now, there are a few reasons I think this means Haylen is town.

The first, and most obvious reason to me, which I was talking about on the last page, is the Twisted-Muffin ultimatum. Haylen-scum knows there's no way in hell Twisted is getting lynched, and pushing for a lynch on the person Haylen-scum tried to NK N1 makes absolutely no sense. It makes even less sense for Haylen-scum to give up on me being scum due to f_a's crumbs and immediately attack Twisted.

The second reason I think Haylen is town is because she forgot about the lack of NK N1. Although this could very well have been a ploy by Haylen-scum, it

looked

genuine to me, and there's no way Haylen-scum would have forgotten about the lack of NK N1.

Also, now that I actually think about it, Twisted was a bad NK choice for Haylen-scum, anyway. It should have been fairly obvious that he was the most likely target for any protective PR that exists in the game. It looks more like a mistake newb-scum would make than Haylen-scum. Also Twisted seemed very ready to be all buddy-buddy with Haylen, so I'm more inclined to believe she would have used that to her advantage in this game than go for a NK on him.

This is why I don't think Haylen is scum, although kudos to her if she is scum; she outplayed me here. Also, Twisted, I am disappointed. I crumbed it so hard when I entered this game. I even dropped a Quaroath reference in my ISO#14 (#498) that I expected you to immediately pick up on, given the timing. Tsk, tsk.

The fact that numerous people came out at the beginning of this day phase explaining that I must be town because of f_a's crumbing gives me a bad, bad feeling. I want to look over it again.

I need to go back and look at CC+Morthas again. And I need to re-evaluate my read on noragar. I also want to go over Twisted's ISO and look at why one of those three would have gone after Twisted N1. Out of gb, noragar and Morthas, I'd say Morthas is most likely scum here. But now that I've outed myself, I actually want to think this through and end this today rather than going to MyLo.

I don't quite see why all of these things necessarily lead to a conclusion that Haylen is town. You say that due to experience, Haylen-scum wouldn't have done these things. Would experienced Haylen-town have done these things? Why are these things a town motivation as opposed to just desperation by being backed into a corner?

Also, as an aside, how do you know twisted didn't pick up on your crumbs. Certainly if he had noticed it, you wouldn't have wanted him to come on and post the details about it? If you were ready for that to happen, you would have announced it yourself instead of leaving crumbs.

[noragar]

It's not town motivation I'm concerned with. It's the fact that it doesn't make sense for Haylen-scum.

But for that to be a town tell, then it needs to at least make SOME sense for Haylen-town. Otherwise there's no scum/town tell, the only thing we can conclude is that it doesn't make sense.

[noragar]

I'm town.

zMuffin is town based on forest's crumbs.

Twisted is town based on zMuffin's claim. There's only two ways this isn't true - 1. if Twisted-scum decided not to night kill on N1 - a gambit that only works specifically IF there's a doc in the game, and the doc is protecting twisted. I'm willing to dismiss this possibility. 2. One of the confirmed town's is intentionally misleading the town. I'm also dismissing this possibility, because if it's true, what chance do we really have?

That leaves gbevil, Morthas, and Haylen. I'm still getting strong town vibes from gbevil, and between Morthas and Haylen, I think Haylen is by far the most likely possibility based on her reactions when put under pressure early in day 3, and after having rethought Espe's and Muffin's arguments about the long walls posted when Haylen joined being more fluff than substance and designed to lead us newbies into thinking they're more helpful than they really were.

Vote: Haylen

[noragar]

And Noragar, if you thought my posts were fluff and lacked substance, why did you bother replying to them? <-- the fact they all contained facts, analysis and quotes really does suggest no fluff.

I replied to the first one (the one about me). I really don't recall specifically replying to anything in the others. And at the time, I was impressed with the depth and volume of the analyses. This was the main reason for my town read on Haylen at that time. Since then, after all of my scum reads have been eliminated, and after having read Espe's attacks on the walls and having gone back and read over them again, I tend to agree with his point that almost all of the facts listed in the walls were just listing reasons that each particular action could be interpreted as a scum-tell or a town-tell, with very few conclusions given one way or the other.

Am I 100% sure about this vote? No. I'd say I'm not even as sure as I was when I placed my votes on Otolia and Espe. But I am very confident that this is the best option right now. And it would take some pretty radical new revelations at this point to get me to change my mind. Apparently something even more radical than Muffin's doc claim and subsequent about-face a few days ago. Even after taking that new info into account and re-evaluating, I still think this is the way to go.

[noragar]

it's morthas if haylen flips town are we going morthas lynch?

I certainly am.

[noragar]

Also, please rank all players from most town to most scum.

Most Town
noragar
zMuffin
Twisted
gbevilchaos
Morthas
Haylen
Most Scum

[noragar]

Just got back from a 4th of July party. No time to make a case right now, but will after I get back from work tomorrow night.

[noragar]

Tonight, I read through the iso on CC. There's just not a whole lot of substance there other than his confusion about the format.

So, just to be sure, I went back and reread the interactions between gbevil and Lord of Graves/Otolia and reconfirmed what I thought all along - that I don't see any way he could be Otolia's partner with the way he pushed toward that lynch when there were several other options that he could have subtly turned his attention to.

Twisted has the same Otolia alibi, in addition to the doc's revelation putting him even more in the clear.

So by process of elimination, I know that the scum has to be CC/Mothras. The problem - that info does me no good unless I can convince the two of you of that fact (or, more specifically, the one of you that survives the night).

There's not much to make a case about CC's iso that hasn't already been said. Numerous fluff posts (trying to float under the radar???), then confusion about the game format (questioned and dismissed as newbie/confused), then before disappearing, throwing a few votes around and withdrawing them. The interesting thing is that one of the places these votes never landed was LOG/Otolia (He voted for Twisted and Espe during the RVS, then gbevil and Frostbite later in the day).

The best defense I have for myself is also the voting against Otolia during Day 1. Here's the history of the votes against Otolia after RVS.

1. gbevil (L-4)
2. gbevil Unvotes (L-5)
3. Twisted (L-4)
4. Chkflip (L-3) (one of his copycat votes)
5. Chkflip unvotes (L-4)
6. Twisted (unless I missed an Unvote somewhere, his vote was already on Otolia (L-4)
7. Chkflip (L-3)
8. Gbevil (L-2)
9. Noragar (L-1)
10. gbevil unvotes (L-2) (he placed what he said was a probe vote on forest to see how she would react, then immediately revoted...)
11. gbevil (L-1)
12. forest (hammers)

For much the same reason as I'm clearing Twisted and gbevil for their voting against Otolia when they had other options, i think this voting pattern also clears me. My placing Otolia at (L-1) came right after a vigorous 3 page discussion taking place in one afternoon between Twisted, chkflip, and Otolia. I made the decision after reading all of that that Otolia was acting the most desperate and illogical in his defense of himself, so decided to vote in that direction. If I were scum, I could just as easily have picked out some points to attack on chkflip, who had been my #1 scum target up to that point to try to move the pressure back away from Otolia, but decided to move toward his lynch instead.

So your call will be, in this newbie game, is it more likely for the scum to actively take action to work toward his partners lynching on Day One, or to avoid voting for him, and really avoiding comment about him altogether?

That's all I have for now. I haven't gotten to Mothras' iso yet, though my impression as it was happening was that he seemed to be acting more townish than CC was. I'll try to get to that tomorrow night and see if I can pick anything out in hindsight.

[noragar]

I guess there's no hurry to do my iso then. I'll wait until the weekend when I have more time.

[noragar]

Will post over the weekend.

[noragar]

Reading now. Prod dodge in case I'm not done in the next hour..

[noragar]

Sorry I didn't get around to posting last night. I had an Evony emergency come up that I had to deal with.

Reading through Morthas' iso, the thing that strikes me first is that there's an awful lot of really short posts with little to no substance. Doing a quick count, out of 54 total posts by Morthas, 41 of them (over 75%) have been one or two lines. And that's even counting post #988 above as one of the multiple line posts. Overall, it just strikes me as trying to build up post count, but saying as little as possible in the process.

He doesn't really give reasoning behind who he suspects as scum, but I did notice an odd pattern to it in regards to how he suspect me and others:

In his initial reads (#3/#510), I'm his second most likely scum candidate (behind Espe), the two of the three players who were getting the most scum heat from everyone at the time. The third, forest, who was getting the most heat from the town and was eventually lynched, Morthas said he had a town read on, but never made any points or arguments to question the lynch.

After forest flipped town, Morthas changed his stance on me (#10/#716) and started saying he suspected TS or Gbdevil (#16/#746), two of the most solid, generally accepted town reads. Next, after Muffin confirmed TS as town, he changed his list to "I say it's either EVIL or Haylen" (#23/#840), again with no explanation of either suspicion.

To me, this seems like a very plausible way for scum to play it. There's already a ton of suspicion on me, so go after the more solid town reads. If he's able to get those solid town reads lynched, then it would be easier to get me lynched in the late game because everyone already suspected me. How much chance would he have if instead of being in the final 4 with me, TS, and gbevil, he was in the final 4 with TS, gbevil and either Haylen or Muffin?

[noragar]

It wasn't the point that he had short posts. It was the point that he had very few long posts with any substance. The only time Mothras did any kind of reasoning or analysis was in explaining how he came to the conclusion that forest had investigated chkflip - after it was already obvious to everyone.

I think you would agree that Twisted has made a few posts with substance and reasoning along the way and hasn't been afraid to take a stand or make a case.

[noragar]

Waiting for Morthas to say something.

[noragar]

Dang, i was hoping evil would get shot. LyLo now, sooo whatdoyouthink guys?

If the moderator misinterpreted your instructions, you should PM him ASAP to get it straightened out.

[noragar]

Bah, i'm trying to ISO but i can't see too much stuff on noragar, ill try anyway.

He starts off his case against me by stating that there's not much of a case against me. That alone, should be enough of a defense, but I'll go ahead and address the points he tries to make.

Noragar's vote on Otolia only came AFTER Otolia came under pressure, thus it's a very plausible bus.

That's because Otolia didn't look scummy to me until after he came under pressure. It was his reaction to the pressure being put on him by TS and chkflip that made him look scummy and caused me to vote for him. It's not a very likely bus because at the time when I made my vote on him, it was far from obvious that he was going to wind up getting lynched if I didn't vote for him. If I had been scum it would have been a far better option for me to try to convince people to go after Chkflip, who I had been voting for for quite some time, instead of pushing toward my partner's lynch, which was not in any way sealed at that point.

This post strikes me as particularly scummy. He is ''shocked'' that Espe was town when he didn't post any real case on him on his own, this is scummy because the motivation for someone saying he is ''shocked'' upon a flip, is when that person was building a case on him all day and was convinced he is scum.
He is also ''shocked'' that forest who was his ''next viable lynch'' is dead and not only that, she was also a cop.

I was "shocked" because the only two people who I had scum reads on at the time had simultaneously been confirmed town. I don't see what difference it makes whether I was the one who made the initial case on Espe or if someone else had made the initial case and I agreed with it. If only Espe had flipped town, I would have been "mildly surprised" since I still had another person I was considering as a reasonable candidate. When both Espe and forest flipped town, I was "shocked" because it meant that everything I had come to believe of the past couple weeks was false and I had no idea what was going on in the game and realized that I had to go back to square one and start over.

He proceeds with pointing out the breadcrumbs before anyone else, which doesn't make sense because he is the first one to point them out, there is a huge possibility of him noticing them on the previous day where all he did was lurk and keep his oppotunistic vote on Espe. I can see scum doing this in order to get town cred

This argument is quite a stretch. You don't think it's a natural town reaction when somebody flips "cop", to go back to their previous posts to see if they had given any clues as to who they investigated in the past and the results of those investigations? Because I was the first to do so, I must have noticed them the week before instead of doing so in the first couple hours after the flip?

You can see scum doing this to get town cred? Yes, obviously you can since you tried to get town cred by making a post (the only post of yours that shows any anaylsis at all) analyzing how you came to the conclusion that forest must have investigated chkflip after several people had already pointed that out.

and folows it with

I also realize that this in no way clears my name and that unless something there's been a radical change of opinion, I'm probably headed toward being lynched today.

A humble way of saying, ''hey, what i said before gives me town cred and you should reconsider lynching me''. It's an attempt to ensure himself surviving(which is slightly more of a scum tell in this case) and i don't like it.

Just recognizing that based on what had been said up to that point, that this was a very likely result. Had I been scum, it would have been imperative that I survive since if the last scum were lynched, it would have been game over. That type of urgency isn't displayed here. It's more resignation that it was likely that I would be lynched, and asking that if it is inevitable, at least don't make it a quick lynch and try to gain some useful information out of it. You conveniently left off that part.

Noragar's vote on Haylen... is the same as Espe ''i agree'' and votes her until her lynch, although there is more activity going on but after his initial ''Muffin is town because of forest'' there is hardly anything. He pushes for a Haylen lynch by trying to make muffin doubt his stance on her. That's about it.

I don't exactly remember what you're referring to about my trying to make Muffin change his stance on Haylen, but I'm not going to go back and search for it since you don't seem to imply that there's anything scummy about it, so there's no need to defend it.

Noragar's vote on me lead me to notice a few things. 1)He attempts building a case
2) He posts more frequently
1+2 are a result of him being left along the few players alive and being under danger of being lynched (not saying that it hasn't happened before, but this time it's a scenario where it's much more to happen.)

Again, why is this a scum indicator? I attempted to build a case? Yes, I'm guilty of attempting to build a case. I freely admit it. Post more frequently? It's only natural that as the number of players decreases, that the ones left would be posting more frequently.

Noragar is scum because he is a) opportunistic b)lurking when he has the opportunity to

Really, you're going to close out your argument by saying I must be the scum because I was lurking? Well if that isn't a case of the pot calling the kettle black...

[noragar]

But of course, it's not Morthas' reasons that I need to defend against anyway. Gbevil, if you actually are leaning noragarscum, I hope you'll post your reasons for that and give me a chance to respond before hammering.

Also, you posted a while back that you had something in the Otolia voting that indicated I was scum. I'd like to see details on that also. I'm curious why you find someone that had an active hand in leading to the scum lynch to be more suspicious than someone who stayed clear of the voting.

[noragar]

Since after rereading my own thoughts on Evil (yes, i forget) i am almost 100% convinced he is town, this leaves TS and Noragar.
I have had a strong read on TS as town all game and that hasn't changed, although if anyone has a good case i am willing to listen.

Morthas,

Why were you more sure that gbevil was town than you were that TS was town, even after TS had been proven to be town by Doc Muffin?

Was it:

1. You were "scum skimming" and didn't realize that TS had been proven town?
2. You thought that (confirmed doc) Muffin might have been intentionally trying to sabotage the game by lying about TS's alibi.
3. You were trying to set up the "brilliant" combo of seeming less sure about TS, then coming back after the night kill to say "Dang, i was hoping evil would get shot.". You really thought gbevil would be influenced by that??
4. Some other reason.

[noragar]

He seems to frequently attack the already weak players (#7, #20, #30, #42). He never attacked a very strong town read (TS, muffin). This is how I would expect scum to play.

Important note: Until ISO #18 (Real #334), noragar NEVER even mentioned Otolia's name. Ever. He then placed the vote on Otolia (#20) two hours later. I find it interesting that he didn't comment on Otolia's wagon before then. Hmm...

As town, why would I want to attack strong town reads if I agreed that they were town? I would expect scum to play (at least one possible way for scum to play) by planting small seeds about the strong town reads that they would be able to expand upon later to create doubt on those town reads.

I didn't comment on Otolia's wagon until then because there was no wagon on Otolia until then. And as stated in my response to Morthas, I really wasn't suspicious of Otolia until then, until I saw how he was trying to defend himself against the wagon, when I got strong scum vibes from him. Reminding you of the timeline since it's really not obvious in looking back at it now due to the sheer number of posts-

The wagon started on Otolia at 2:51pm on 5/26 (Post #250). I got home from work that night, tried to catch up, but every time I finished reading one post, there were two new ones waiting, so I waited until the next day to try to make sense of all of it. The post you reference above (#334) came at 4:30pm on 5/27, so there were 84 posts in those 26 hours to try to catch up on and make sense of.

Anyway, I don't want to comment any further until we get something out of Morthas. I don't want to continue to let him float by like we have been the entire game.

[noragar]

Was it:

1. You were "scum skimming" and didn't realize that TS had been proven town?
2. You thought that (confirmed doc) Muffin might have been intentionally trying to sabotage the game by lying about TS's alibi.
3. You were trying to set up the "brilliant" combo of seeming less sure about TS, then coming back after the night kill to say "Dang, i was hoping evil would get shot.". You really thought gbevil would be influenced by that??
4. Some other reason.

Numbah 3 lD
A silly but hopeful plan, i was trying to influence scum to shoot Evil because due to their logical pathtrack.

@gbevil, what is you reaction to Morthas' attempted defense here?

[noragar]

If Evil is indeed scum he may have already won this.

Very true.

Noragar seems scummier with each post and i find it very hard to find reason to think Evil is scum over Noragar.

What specifically do you find scummy about my recent posts?

Also @Noragar: Sorry if i lashed out, alcohol seems to make me slightly more aggressive.

I never interpreted anything as lashing out, so no need to apologize (or apology accepted, whichever you prefer).

[noragar]

Ah @Noragar: Could you provide me with reasons to why i should vote Evil and not you? I am finding it really hard to find anything that i could see from a scum POV more than a town POV so a 2nd opinion really helps.

I really don't care whether you vote for evil or me. Your vote is irrelevant. It's evil's vote that will decide the game.

[noragar]

What specifically do you find scummy about my recent posts?

I don't know man, nothing. No, really .

So, just to clarify, "Noragar seems scummier with each post", but you have no examples of a post that seems scummy to you. Is that what you're saying?

Since it doesn't seem to be going over real well when I point out inconsistencies to let people draw their own conclusions, I'll come right out and say it.

This is a scum tell - putting no real effort into making a case and just throwing out a statement that someone's seeming scummier with each post with no facts to back it up, even after being specifically asked about it.

[noragar]

Here is the link to my only other game. (I was town)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 50&t=16898

I'll respond to the rest of your message when I get home tonight.

[noragar]

To try to keep replies to manageable size, and to keep the qoute boxes from getting too complex to follow, I'll make a separate post for each point.

Scum skimming detected. Easy town cred attempt detected.

FoS

: noragar

What is scum skimming? It wasn't in the glossary and I can't really respond to the accusation without knowing what it is.

As far as easy town cred, I assume you mean answering someone's question about what abbreviations meant? Really??? That's scummy??? Why single me out to FoS instead of also FoS'ing Twisted who said almost the exact same thing at the exact same time?

Response of emotion to early pressure. This is scummy. He does give logic to defend his post later, though (not bothering to quote it, but it's ISO #9). As I noted at the time he made this post, trying to deflect suspicion onto TS for no reason is scummy.

As I said in ISO #10, I never tried to deflect any suspicion onto TS. My entire argument was that what TS and I did was not scummy in the least. The purpose of my questioning was to get chkflip to reply with his reasons for seeing two players do the same thing at the same time and he says one is scummy, but not the other. As he never game a satisfactory answer, this was one of the reasons in my case against chkflip.

[noragar]

Well in that case, I claim Vanilla Townie.

And let my final statement be that if the town follows through and lynches me on this little evidence with more than a week to go before the deadline then I hold out very little hope at backdooring a win.

Seems to almost threaten town. I don't know exactly what it is about this post, but I don't like it. "If you lynch me, you'll almost definitely lose." This is incorrect. Town can easily win if they mislynch a townie on Day 1. This is what happens the majority of the time. A townie, while they would be unhappy with it, wouldn't be completely horrified by being lynched Day 1, as long as something could be gained from it by observing voting habits. On the other hand, scum would be very concerned with being lynched Day 1, since it would place the entire game's outcome on their partner's ability to remain undetected for several day phases. This is especially true for the RoleCop, since that is an important role to keep alive for scum.

As I explained later, my frustration wasn't with getting lynched. My frustration was at getting lynched when there was more than a week left before the deadline when there was absolutely no evidence to indicate I was scum, and no credible case made against me. Had I been lynched, it would have indicated that the town players were more interested in random guessing than at scum-hunting. At that point, with 5 townies and 2 scum, town would have had to randomly hit both scum before hitting two other townies in order to win, and the odds would have been severely against doing that.

Had I been lynched there, there would have been practically no information gained. All the voting up to that point had been RVS.

If I were scum, and so very concerned about being lynched Day 1, why would I be so unconcerned about my partner being lynched Day 1 that I would push toward getting him lynched? You can't have the argument both ways.

[noragar]

I also suspect Chkflip (obviously, since my vote has been on him). My theory up to this point was that of the two scum, one would be from the group of active, aggressive posters (Chkflip, TS, Otolia) and the other would be one of the lurkers (Espe, Frostbite, CC). I've been getting a town read from gbevil and forest. I really don't see a TS/Chkflip partnership unless they're using the most blatant WIFOM strategy imaginable.

In this back and forth over the last couple days, I buy into TS's points more than Otolia's, and I'd be willing to go along with an Otolia lynch for D1. I'm going to go back and re-read the thread to make sure I didn't miss anything the first time through. If I don't find any new insights, I'll likely be changing my vote to Otolia later tonight.

Iso #18/ Real Post #334 is the first time noragar even mentions Otolia's name. I could easily consider this noobscum. If scum is concerned about seeming suspicious when talking about their partner (especially if they are newer), then they might think the best way to avoid issues is to avoid talking about their partner at all. 300+ posts of content without one mention of Otolia's name? Sketchy stuff right there. It would make sense that noragarscum would be forced to post as Otolia's lynch was almost gauranteed for a bus attempt.

OK. Out of curiosity, I went and looked to see how many time CaptainCuddles mentioned Otolia's name (or Lord of Graves). The answer is exactly once. (Note that Otolia had already been lynched by the time Morthas came on board).

All right, that doesn't give me the confidence that frostbite is an obvious town but whatever works for you guys (obvious town is more of an exaggeration btw).

I still don't like how Otolia hasn't posted his reads on people like I believe TS has asked to before. LoG replaced out when he was starting to get some attention from people so that gives me some suspicion towards Otolia as well. Definitely suspicion on Otolia, but I'm not pushing for anyone's lynch (Otolia, Frost, and Espe) until they post a bit more.

So the only time CC mentions Otolia, he's "bussing" him, but not willing to push toward a lynch. Why do you see my "bussing" with pushing toward a lynch as more suspicious that CC's "bussing" without trying to lynch?

[noragar]

I need to step out for a bit. Will pick up where I left off when I get back, but it might not be until tomorrow.

[noragar]

@Noragar: Stop defending yourself ffs, make a case on either of us. Your defense isn't working and moreover unless you first make someone to be ATLEAST just as suspicious as you i won't change my voting intentions.

So I guess telling me to stop defending myself isn't a scum-tell either?

[noragar]

The votes on you were for many more reasons than random voting. Even if it was random voting (and it most definitely was not), your lynch would have clearly shown us later on who was scummy. Those who push for a quick lynch during random voting are almost always scum, since town has no reason to go for a quick lynch. If the circumstances were as you say they were, your lynch would given us a lot of information.

Well, nobody ever told me a valid reason that I was being lynched, so even if the people voting had their reasons, *to me* it seemed like a random lynch. Thus the reason for my comments.

You never pushed towards your partner being lynched. You voted for him when he was almost definitely being lynched that day. Stating that you "pushed for his lynch" is misleading to the extreme. Also, Mafia RoleCop would be way more concerned with staying alive than Mafia Goon. RoleCop is very important to scum's success.

Otolia was not my partner, so it's true that I never pushed for my partner to be lynched. I'll rephrase to make it less misleading. By voting for Otolia, I increased the probability that he would be lynched. At the time that I voted for him, I don't see how it was definite that he would have been lynched had I not voted for him. I didn't even think it was definite after I voted. Earlier in the day, I thought it was certain that I was about to be lynched, thus my resignation posts. Then there was a sudden about face. Even if I were bussing, when you pulled your vote off of Otolia, I could have taken the opportunity to do the same, but didn't.

[noragar]

CC was V/LA when the case on Otolia gained the most momentum. I'm not going to consider his V/LA scummy. He started talking about Otolia's potential scumminess as the case was being built originally, nearly 100 real posts before you did.

You keep saying that CC was V/LA during all of this, but there's nothing in his iso that mentions being V/LA, he was simply lurking.

CC's post was almost 100 real posts before mine was, but came after the wagon on Otolia had started, and this was the time when there was over 100 posts in a 26 hour period. As I stated before, I didn't want to react to the flurry of posts before I had a chance to read them in their entirety, which I couldn't do until the next day. CC's post came at 3:30pm on 5/26. My post came at 4:30pm on 5/27. So his post came before mine, but was in the same general time frame and within the same sequence of events.

Also, after night one, CC made one more post on 5/31, and then disappeared to be replaced by Morthas. Do you think seeing his partner lynched on Day 1 might have had an influence in CC quitting the game immediately after?

[noragar]

Nothing to add at this point. Still voting for Espeonage.

That was a catch up post after another 3 day lurk - lol. If you have nothing to add, reread, reread, reread. Don't post saying you have nothing. Even if you try to grasp for straws, it's better than saying nothing. Who knows, your observations could come in handy down the road, even if they're insignificant now.

Both of my 3 day lurks came when other people were promising major, insightful posts that night, then the next night, then the night after that, then the posts never came (for example, the remainder of Haylen's walls). So I was waiting to see what would be in these posts before adding anything new myself. I try to post only when I have something useful to say. I don't make random posts like "D:" or "HAI GAIZ, U SHUD TTLY SBMT MOAR." or "MORE KETCHUP." just to get my post count up since I wouldn't want town to waste time or be confused trying to interpret them.

[noragar]

It should also be mentioned, because I don't think I've done this yet, that noragar has been very emotional during this day. This could be a result of him feeling backed into a corner as scum. I've said a few times that noragar seems more scummy than Morthas, so noragarscum would be lashing out with everything possible to change my mind. Noragartown would probably be looking more for facts (as well as considering the possibility of me being scum, which he has never done - Morthas has, which is what I expect from the other townie in a LyLo situation).

Yes, it could be a result of me being backed into a corner as scum. Equally likely, it could be a result of me being backed into a corner as town. If I'm scum and get lynched today, I lose. If I'm town and get lynched today, I lose. Why is one more likely than the other?

I have considered the possibility of you being scum several times. I've just come to the conclusion that you aren't. I didn't really state my reasons after I re-examined everyone after Espe and forest were gone and I had no remaining scum reads, but I did in Post #47/#976,

So, just to be sure, I went back and reread the interactions between gbevil and Lord of Graves/Otolia and reconfirmed what I thought all along - that I don't see any way he could be Otolia's partner with the way he pushed toward that lynch when there were several other options that he could have subtly turned his attention to.

I didn't see the need to go into too much depth, since what I needed to accomplish today was to convince you that Morthas was scum and not me. I didn't need to convince you that you weren't scum.

At that point, I was 99% sure that Morthas was the other scum and you weren't, but even throughout today, I've kept that 1% possibility open by not voting for Morthas right away and waiting to make sure you didn't make any kind of slip up. While there have been times in reading your responses today that I just can't understand how you can't see some of the things that are so obvious to me, that's outweighed by the fact that if you were scum, you surely must realize by now that you could just end the day by voting for either one of us and the other would hammer.

So, I'm seeing that 1% as closed and I now have no qualms voting for

Vote: Morthas

and if you actually are scum, I would say "Good Game. You deserve the win.", except that would be seen as "buddying".

[noragar]

Good game gbevil. I wish I had just voted before spending all that time putting together a defense.

Morthas, sorry about that comment about your vote being irrelevant. I really was convinced of it at the time.