DEFCON Mafia 3.0 - Over, American Victory!

[Magua]

Total War is bad.

Conventional scenario:

D1-D2, we get:
2 lynches
2 SK night kills
1 Mafia night kill

Total war, we get:
2 lynches
2 SK night kills
2 Mafia night kills
2 day kills from whomever gets the submarine, which is almost assuredly going to be the SK and someone else
Any additional town-directed nukes identify to the mafia/SK who may or may not have PRs

[Magua]

And wait, how is there 2 nightkills from the SK and Mafia? Aren't both phases just skipped, so like Defcon 4 we get troop choices, and we skip straight to Defcon 1 where we can go nuclear?

Please sign your posts. kthx.

Conventional War:
Day 1: Defcon 3: Lynch + SK Night kill
Day 2: Defcon 2: Lynch + SK Night kill + Mafia Night kill

Total War:
Day 1: Defcon 1: Lynch + SK Night kill + Mafia Night kill + Submarine kill (Which may be x2, depending on SK) + other assorted nukings
Day 2: Defcon 1: Lynch + SK Night kill + Mafia Night kill + Submarine kill (Which may be x2, depending on SK) + other assorted nukings

Better to have at least *some* flip info before the nukings start.

[Magua]

ooba's wrong.

Conventional war, D1-D2, has three non-town-directed kills (2 SK, 1 Mafia). So even if you think that "nukenukeseveryonenukes" is a good plan, we can get to D3 with *at worst* 14 of 19 town before going "omgimgoingtonukescumandbeanhero"...but with two Days of interactions and flips to start with.

Secondly, going "omgimgoingtonukescumandbeanhero" D1 immediately tells the mafia that you're not one of the PRs. Conventional war gives us 2 cop/tracker reports, and maybe 2 rolecop reports if we get that, though that's less likely.

[Magua]

In case it needs to be official:

Confirm: No Total War

I'm in favor of total war.

Since it needs to be unanimous, and its not, doesn't really matter now, does it?

Going straight to total war gives a ton of players the abilitiy to go with nukes. Not only is this a ton of fun, but it also means that potential hotheads have the ability to annihilate any given player at any time. This means town could die, yes, but it also means that any lurking/apathetic scum expecting to play a normal game will get destroyed.

You seem to be making an assumption that lurkers will be targeted with the nukes, and that the lurkers will be scum. The first is pretty shaky, and the second is worse, unless you believe that there will actually be more lurkers amongst the scum than the town (which I don't).

[Magua]

Experience has shown me that when you give everyone daykills, the first 3 or so are always done for the lulz (like me nuking Faraday) unrelated to the game.

Besides which, to be a lurker, the game has to have gone on a few days, and I'm pretty goddamn certain that if you got to that point, the hotheads that Ludi is depending on would've already launched their nukes anyways.

There are always more lurkers as a percentage of the scum team then the town team. (You don't believe this?)

No. Datapoint: Cuthulhufish. All the lurkers were town. Every single one.

Anyways, what kind of bullshit statistic is this? The question isn't whether lurkers are a higher percentage of the scum team (which is going to be more variant because the sample size is lower), but whether a lurker is more likely to be scum than a non-lurker.

And, the better the playerlist gets, the less likely a lurker is to be scum. And this is a pretty top-class playerlist.

[Magua]

@Mod:

If someone with Fighters uses it on the Terrorist, and the Terrorist does not have the Air Base, will the Fighters player see two deployments?

(The terrorist's free ability is considered a factional ability and will not show. Only the ability they selected in the draft will be revealed. --AGM)

[Magua]

Datapoint: Dynasty Warriors Mafia. (SPyreX, back me up here)

Just want to make sure, this is the same Dynasty Warriors where you have less posts than C-worl, who you're referring to as the lurker scum?

[Magua]

Just confirming, scum who generally did not much of anything, lurked in plain site and won the game. Yes, same one. (battle of the one game sample sizes going on here)

So did you lurk that game? If you played in this game like you played in that game, should you be nuked?

Not going too deep into this, but if three players are lurking, and one is scum, It is probably beneficial to nuke them all. At worst, two town die and the remaing scum get active as all hell. I would take that deal. And that's only dealing with lurking. (fluff posts etc.)

What if three players are lurking, and none are scum? What if five players are lurking, and one is scum?

I mean, we're going to get there despite your best efforts. If you had the choice, I take it you would want to stay in Defcon 2 forever?

With just a simple analysis, I think this setup would be rather scumsided without nukes. Amongst other things, they provide a great way to get multiple lynches out of a Day. Which is assuming that people can be rational about things. Which is more the crux of the matter. I think people are going to be much better about using their nukes once they've already had reads established, whereas opening this in Total War would surprise me if there were not three nukes launched within the first two game pages.

[Magua]

Defcon 4 Guide

Ignorance of the rules is no excuse. Understand things before you make your selections.

1. You get to choose between being able to nuke/defend from a nuke ("missile silo"), and having a PR ("troops").

2. If you choose "Troops", you get to list which PRs you want in the order that you want them. You don't need to include all the items; it can be as little as one. There's a draft, where you're more likely to get things high on the list than low.

If you don't end up with anything on your list, you get a missile silo.

The troop choices are:
Fighter: Rolecop
Espionage: Cop (one faction at a time)
Aircraft Carrier: Roleblocker
Battleship: Doctor
Radar: Tracker (does not track night-kills)
Counterintelligence: Framer/lawyer
Submarine: Anonymous daykill (starting D3)
Eavesdrop: Get PMed 1/6-1/3 of scum QT
Air Base: Immune to night actions
Fallout Shelter: Immune to daykills
Fail Safe: Vengeful

3. Scum get to coordinate their checks. We don't.

4. The SK gets one free pick, outside of the draft.

So, with all that in mind, some advice:

1. Do not choose missile silo. Do not do this.

If all you want is a missile silo, choose Troops and list Submarine as your only choice.

It's critical that we keep this out of scum hands. We may not be able to stop the SK from getting it, but we can make him use his free pick on it, and we can keep scum from getting this altogether.

The more people who do this, the better chance that town gets Submarine instead of scum.

You either get a Submarine, which is awesome, or you get a missile silo, which is what you wanted to begin with.

2. If you're going for troops, I'd advise against a "steal from the scum" mentality. Better to have Espionage than Counter-espionage, better to have Fighters than Air Base. I'd also advise against going for Submarine -- leave those to the people hopefully following point 1. Fighter, Aircraft Carrier, Espionage, and Battleship are all really good powers that deserve top spots on your list -- at best, you'll get one, at worst you'll make it harder for scum to get them.

3. I'd really advise putting Fail Safe (Vengeful) on your list. Unless you expect to get night-killed N1 or N2, it's categorically worse than just having a missile silo.

4. WIFOM it up in the thread. Town benefits from a certain spread to the selections, but only if scum don't know what it is.

[Magua]

EBWOP: 3. I'd really advise

against

putting Fail Safe (Vengeful) on your list. Unless you expect to get night-killed N1 or N2, it's categorically worse than just having a missile silo.

[Magua]

2. If you're going for troops, I'd advise against a "steal from the scum" mentality. Better to have Espionage than Counter-espionage, better to have Fighters than Air Base.

Problem is, if scum get their hands on Counter Espionage, then Espionage becomes pretty useless, etc. We could do without a uniformity in this area, really.

Disagree. Counter-espionage requires you to select a specific person and a specific investigation (cop, rolecop, tracker). Scum having it, even guaranteed, does not make Fighters, Espionage, or Radar useless by any stretch of the imagination.

Or, to put it another way, in every single scenario imaginable, I would prefer town to have Espionage and scum to have Counter-espionage than the reverse.

Regarding Sub: I say we all take a vow of honour and let RedCoyote get it On a more serious note, has anyone considered explicitly advising town against Subs? It's not like town needs to be secret about who they're nuking. I -KNOW- its a very powerful scum role, and this may sound really silly, but it might be best to let the scum have it. What I mean is, if we KNOW scum have got the sub, then we can eventually confirm who they are by making people launch their nukes; if someone launches and we don't see their name attached to the warhead, we know they're holding the secret daykill powar and they're confirmed scum. It could also be useful for rooting out the SK. Thoughts on this?

Er. Submarine owning player will simply claim to not have a missile silo, because they have some other troops deployment. Like Counter-espionage. =P And, in the meantime, they'll be anonymously daykilling.

No. I'd much rather that town gets this.

[Magua]

Magua, can you explain how vengful is suboptimal to pick? The way I'm reading it taking it allows direction of a kill upon death as well as prevents mafia from attaining a free kill if they were to recieve it.

It has two effects:

1) If someone nukes you, you *must* nuke them.
2) If you are killed by the scum (but *not* if you are killed by the SK), you may fire a nuke at anyone.

There's only two situations where it is better than simply having a missile silo:
1) If you are killed by the scum N2. In this case, you will get one nuke off whereas if you had a missile silo you'd get none.
2) If you can make multiple people fire nukes at you.

In all other cases, it's worse than a missile silo, because the missile silo would either give you at least as many nukes, and given you a choice as to when and on whom to use them. It's really the choice that makes missile silos so much better.

#1 is obviously pretty unlikely -- 1/22 chance.
#2 is also very unlikely, and is a bad strategy because there are better alternatives.
In the vast majority of cases, you will get to fire off 0-1 nukes throughout the game, and even if you fire, you will have no choice as to who this nuke is aimed at.

Fail Safe makes a great scum claim, because it makes people not want to nuke you and at the same time excuses you from having to commit to positions by using your ability.

[Magua]

Hot-heads aren't nessesarily rash

Lulz

[Magua]

It'd be nice if town had Espeonage, Eavesdrop, Battleship, Sub and Counter. These imo are probably the most useful PRs either in the hands of town or scum (battleship especially is something scum want).

The problem with Counterintelligence is that for town, it's 100% useless, whereas for scum, it's only 75% useless -- that is, town takes a *huge* hit in getting it (loss of a missile silo), whereas it's just really not that good for scum either.

Fail Safe is antitown crap that no town should take.

Fallout Shelter is also antitown crap that no town should take.

Airbase is antitown crap that no town should take..

Everything else is on the range from at-least-decent (Fighter) to incredibly good (Espionage).

PEdit: SDC. Joy. Make you a deal. You can lynch me D1/D2 if you agree that when I flip town, you get lynched in return. I'll even self vote.

[Magua]

Okay gamma. I will be less boring by nuking you the first chance I get. Be ready.

Having read DEFCON 1 already I disagree with gammagooey #131 -- Hinduragi was scum in that game and nuked his buddy on way to victory.
Nuking is like very intense bussing -- we shuold not be using it to clear people.

OH MAN WE ARE IN DEFCON 4 ... Gonna read Defcon 2.0 tonight then make my decision.

The entire tone of this post screams fake.

[Magua]

??? Why would you do this? If you are town, why not just generally push for a Death Clan lynch? what is gained from you dying along the way?

I have my reasons, and these reasons are mine.

Magua has also just made my list.

Curious that you responded so quickly. I thought you were off reading DEFCON 2.0.

[Magua]

Changed my mind. Lazy like that.

But I WILL be reading it before sending in my choice.

You see how this all ties together to make the tone of your post seem even more fake, yes?

[Magua]

Three words Magua:

NUKES.
DON'T.
LIE.

Curiousity: How old are you?

DEAL.

Great. You get lynched D2, and the game will be better off for it.

VOTE: Magua

[Magua]

Ah, how cute.

You've caught on that I DON'T KID AROUND WITH NUKES.

The only promise I make is that if I nuke Gamma you'll already be dead for some reason.

...

It's like someone read the "FUCK YEAH AMERICA" bit from DEFCON 2.0 and then made a conscious decision to try to act like that.

[Magua]

hate the herpderp LYNCHTRADES? with Fate.

Why?

[Magua]

Magua: Vibe vis-a-vis MetaMafia. There it was trying to figure out things - here, it gives me the vibe of trying to appear town.

Metamafia: Closed game.
Defcon: Open game.

No need to figure out the setup here, because it's open -- just strategy.

And the strategy is pretty simply: go for submarine before nuke, and CI, Failsafe, Fallout Shelter are all worse than having a nuke. We can disagree about Airbase, as I simply don't care that much, but you only have a 3/23 chance of being NKed before D3, but then you also can't be Espionage'd. Jack regretted taking it in DEFCON 2, and I agree.

Great. You get lynched D2, and the game will be better off for it.

YOU THINK YOU CAN TAKE DOWN THE SDC?
WE ARE LEGION

I do expect that you honor deals that you made, yes.

People who were all "look if we were in Total War we could be nuking already" make me sad.

[Magua]

I don't have a read on you. We disagree on some setup strategy (whether Total War was a good idea, whether Airbase should be on town lists) but you haven't really expressed any strong reads one way or the other on anyone.

HezLucky is either scum, or the best reason why going to Total War D1 is a bad idea.

Regfan's being unusually reserved, which is meta-scummy. Same goes for gorilla, though I'm less solid on his meta.

SDC: You're welcome to take Airbase, as far as I care.

[Magua]

The reason I ask is because in the earlier exchange it seemed like you automatically assumed I'm town ..

The "you" in my quote is the generic "you"; see also this post addressed to Regfan, or anyplace I talk about taking powers, really.

[Magua]

I don't have a read on you.

We

disagree on some setup strategy (whether Total War was a good idea, whether Airbase should be on town lists) but you haven't really expressed any strong reads one way or the other on anyone.

Im either asking something completely offtopic or considering a possible slip. Whose "We"? Teh scumbuddies?

Yes. It can't possibly be the person who I disagreed with on setup strategy that I was replying to.

You're so smart.

[Magua]

Hez is more likely overcompensating scum trying to do a Fate imitation.

[Magua]

Double post: Toasty is town.

[Magua]

I also found some Europeans.
Dana
IS
Hez

I notice your scumlist only contains extremely easy targets. Why is that?

[Magua]

Fate raging is making me laugh.

I'm going to revise my list and put Airbase at #1 now.

RC = town, AV = scum

[Magua]

Magua's getting my vote again D1.

He wants that 1v1? Fine.

He's either TROLLING, not playing to his WINCON, or SCUM.

So he can die D1, deal.

Magua (American, Airbase) - Lynched Day 1.

[Magua]

Trolls are self aligned.

[Magua]

Oh, man. Blacklists. Didn't know that this was srs bsns. I'll change my errant ways immediately.

Fate's threats are funnier.

[Magua]

I didn't get this mental image when reading the posts, so I just assumed. My bad. Won't happen again.

What do you think of RedCoyote and AurorusVox?

[Magua]

[Magua]

Actually, who all pulled the airbase shenanigans, preferably in order? I have a sense about this.

SDC - "Gimme airbase!"
ooba - "Airbase is on my list"
Sociopath - "I may or may not have Airbase"
Sidetrek for AurorusVox's "Fate wanted Airbase as scum in DEFCON 2, so we should let him have it now" because I can
RedCoyote - "Airbase is on my list"
Magua - "I'm going to put Airbase #1 to piss Fate off"

[Magua]

Is that it and 100% accurate?

No, it's entirely misrepresentative of what happened. Luckily for me, there's no way people can look back at the postings and disprove it.

I thought there was more hiding in there playing teehee.

There's a lot of SDC-RedCoyote wrangling, and then RC referencing ooba that drags ooba in.

But I did walk away with a big townread on RedCoyote from his responses, and a big scumread on AurorusVox for his. Sociopath is the only one who I didn't remember as jumping in until I went back and looked.

[Magua]

My list is better, and I'm town so

NYAHNYWAH

Yes. I didn't include all the people who didn't comment on it.

Toog never says he's going to put Airbase on his list. He says he doesn't like your plan. I actually like his response. Reads town.

Magua, the point was that he didn't want it KNOWN that he wanted Airbase. Also, D2 featured a second scumteam. I can't see why he'd pull this stunt as scum in this game. As SK I can see, but not as Eurotrash.

I think that looking at Fate's old scumgames and expecting that he would play exactly like them as scum this game is not a successful plan.

And, it's not occurred to you that scum might want to publicly say, "I have the Airbase" when they really have some other PR, etc? Really?

Your overall SDC-is-town-because-they-asked-for-Airbase I find incredibly disconcerting.

[Magua]

Magua are we scum?

You're not in my top three choices to lynch, but SDC-scum is certainly a possibility I haven't discounted. You play hyper-aggressive regardless of alignment.

[Magua]

When did Magna transform into a readable, concise beast?

[Magua]

Please don't turn me into an

adjective

verb. I feel like I'm being used.

[Magua]

I'm of the opinion that at least one of the people jockeying for the ability to lead town is scum.

Yeah? Which one? Care to be a bit less general? This is about as useful as "thar's scum on that thar wagon"

@Mina:

How likely did you think it was that you could come up with a breaking plan for the powers? You had experience with DEFCON 2, but the tone I'm getting from your posts in #241 and #253 is that you put some significant time into it. True/false?

[Magua]

And who are you waiting to vote for, dana?

[Magua]

HEY FATE

In unrelated news:
VOTE: AurorusVox

[Magua]

Why pick out LLD? Why not IS/Pooky who have been talking about all the Eurotrash they'll smite without specifics? Selective interrogation?

Because IS/Pooky are having their little therapeutic roleplay session and have already been shelved as useless. LLD is trying to find the scum. But LLD's statement was so generic as to be useless, which is unusual for LLD in my experience. Hence, the question. It's cool. I'm not voting her for it. I'm voting you.

^Anti-town and blatant role-fishing. If you reveal you have a nuke by filling this form in then scummz be knowing who has PRs and whatnot.

Seriously? The mind boggles.

[Magua]

You were baiting me in our previous interaction. That's not at all town-motivated.

Town never baits.

AIN'T THAT RIGHT, FATE? TROLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Also, Mina's town. With Toasty. I'm content to circle-nuke and leave either of the two alive.

[Magua]

Toog, Counterintelligence was your #1 choice, yes?

[Magua]

Since lack of posting isn't a scumtell to you, what do you make of

Magua

Magister Ludi saying he'll nuke the person with the lowest postcount?

[Magua]

That's two things.

I'm so sad you're scum.

[Magua]

vote: HezLucky

Glad to see we've got 4 blatantly pro-town players. It gives me a little faith in the American people.

And who are these four?

[Magua]

Fine, I won't nuke you.

Jeez.

That's too bad. I've been using your "I'm going to nuke you" posts as indicators as to who the town is.

3) Nobody has made me come to actively hate them (in this game) yet.

As to your IS vote: I can see voting IS for something that Zhero did, but I don't get the link between Zhero and Bastard Bros.

[Magua]

B4574rD Br05 came under fire and replaced out of a high-pressure game without warning. His replacement did nothing to look better.

Now let's swap that name out for Zhero and see if those two sentences still make sense.

1) Zhero's posts were crap, but Zhero was never under fire. To the best of my knowledge, no one even threatened to nuke him.

2) Town replace out too.

So, no. Not seeing it.

@AurorusVox:

Who's scum besides HezLucky?

[Magua]

Is everything I'm saying just digging the hole deeper? Am I really acting that scummy?

Do you think the people voting you are town? The tone of your post indicates that you do (that is, its something you are doing wrong, rather than scum trying to mislynch you).

[Magua]

@Everyone else- You get a *surprise* after dinner. You may or may not be dissapointed.

I hope it's a pony.

I've always wanted a pony.

[Magua]

[Magua]

Now that ooba has claimed to have picked up Airbase

@MagnaofIllusion:

Please explain what you mean here.

Other things:

Hinduragi's defense of #665 reads pretty true to me; I can see it coming from town defending town or scum defending town, but either way, it makes me think more strongly of Hez-town.

You know what pisses me off? I posted a pretty damning piece on the entire AV wagon and it gets ignored.

Point me at this, because I don't see it. I see you saying that AV isn't playing like AV-scum did in DEFCON 2, and that you have a town read. But I see nothing about the wagon or the people voting AV.

RedCoyote: I'm meh on this. His posts read scummy, but without a real scum motivation on them. The best scum motivation I can see is RC-scum trying to derail AV-scum's wagon...but that's pretty a pretty weak derail if its the intention, and I don't really believe it. Much rather prefer to lynch AV.

[Magua]

I thought it was pretty straightforward. If I was a smart-ass who liked graphics I'd post a pic of some sort of map right here.

1. SDC came into the thread right after DEFCON 3 started saying "What Rat Bastard .... blah blah". What I took from this - he is claiming to not have Airbase given he's throwing a fit in that post.
2. ooba's next post has a pic of a Rat and he says something along the line of "You rang?" I took from this he was taunting Fate / SDC about getting Airbase.

This of course can clearly be WIFOMing everyone about who does or doesn't have Airbase by those two.

Carry on. I had failed to make the connection between the graphic and SDC's post.

[Magua]

I'm shocked that you're lynchbait in games.

Do you think RC is more likely to be scum than AV?

[Magua]

I do. When we were in Dynasty Warriors mafia, RC wrote a very convincing post about myself and other scumspects. People thought he was scum regardless and Vi killed him. Turns out he was a death miller.
In this case, NONE of RC's cases were strong. And now he plans to...lurk out? its poor play
AV, on the other hand, came under suspicion right out of the gate. He tried his best to defend, and, even when it seemed like he was giving up, he came back again.

So when RC writes strong cases, you think he's scum.
And when RC writes weak cases, you think he's scum.

Do you see any cognitive dissonance here?

Did you look to see where he was at, lynchwise, before laying your vote down?

[Magua]

AV, who's your top three picks for scum?

Who's your top three picks for town?

[Magua]

My catchup post:

VOTE: AurorusVox

The end.

No, wait, I've got one more:

Magna's #1010 jumps out as me as him trying to force through repetition this idea that Magister *must* nuke Regfan tomorrow because he said he would nuke the lowest post count, and that for Magister to not do this would somehow be incredibly scummy. This strikes me as wrong on every single possible level.

[Magua]

Hez is town.

Toasty is town.

Toogeloo is probtown.

Gorilla is either getting massively railroaded as town, or massively bussed as scum. Regardless, there are scum in the people who are voting him: Lady Lambdadelta, Toogeloo, Magister Ludi, Regfan, MagnaofIllusion

AurorusVox is still scum, and still needs to die.

[Magua]

Magua, did you even give consideration to the Gorilla!SK idea? Or are you totally ignoring that on purpose?

Utterly do not care about finding the SK. Utterly. Do not care.

Given the bolded, I'm assuming you're not going to make an effort to find out who?

Given that AurorusVox is more likely to be scum than all of them, no, I'm not at this point.

Please sign your posts. Thanks.

[Magua]

THERE IS NO LYNCHING THE EAVESDROP CLAIM TODAY.

Nuke him tomorrow. Tonight, either the scum have the choice of killing him, saving us the lynch, or they have to continue their code and keep their discussion level low, which cuts down their night-kill discussion.

I really see zero reason to lynch gorilla today.

[Magua]

If you can't tell the difference between a CSL post and a Vi post you probably shouldn't be reading them.

Sign your posts, please.

[Magua]

Doesn't the bolded rest entirely on the assumption that gorilla is Town?

It's more the assumption that gorilla has Eavesdrop. If gorilla has eavesdrop, and he's scum, lynching him does nothing for us today. The only reason to think about lynching gorilla is if he's cc'ed, which isn't going to happen.

Sign your posts.

[Magua]

In this post Magua sets up a dichotomy wherein regardless of Gorilla’s alignment the people on his wagon MUST be scum.

Scumtastic of you Magua.

Does Magua-scum imply gorilla-town or gorilla-scum for you?

[Magua]

~Maemuki

Nuking Wei tomorrow. It's not like we have a deficit of antitown behavior running around and desperately need more.

[Magua]

Wait. Waitwaitwait.

A

policy nuke

?

Yes. Better than a policy lynch, because it doesn't cost us in terms of scum night-kills.

[Magua]

katsuki kill means screaming death clan are TOWN TO THE TOWN. fate doesn't kill katsuki.

Agreed.

Katsuki being killed in preference to gorilla by the Europeans means one of two things:
1) Europeans do not have the Battleship and were scared to kill gorilla, or
2) gorilla is scum

Going with #1 for now. If a European flips with the battleship, gorilla dies. Lynching or killing gorilla at this point is right out. There are far better candidates.

In the meantime, idle speculation: Katsuki was killed by the Europeans for this post, specifically:

I'M HAPPY THAT NIXON IS TOWN THOUGH. MAY HE LEAD THE AMERICANS TO VICTORY.

So until I see otherwise, inHimshallibe is town as well.

VOTE: Revenge of Wei

[Magua]

Why do you think the doc (battleship) would protect gorilla Magua?

It doesn't matter who the battleship protects; it only matters whom the scum think the battleship would protect, if they don't have it themselves. Gorilla as the claimed eavesdrop is a decent choice regardless of who actually has it.

@Magua: you missed the option of 3)scum have a code.

Gorilla should post any result he got immediately.

Trust me that I didn't miss it.

[Magua]

I'd like Magua to explain his inhim read, as I have a contradictory read on him from when I did my big catchup post.

Speculation as to why Katsuki was killed -- that she had Espionage and was breadcrumbing a "not European" result on IHSIB. I quoted this in my post ("Nixon" == "inHimshallibe")

Lets just cut the crap and nuke down to the following three players:

Myself,

Mina, and Toastytoast. That should be a win for town.

Fixed that for you. I'm now comfortable with adding Screaming Death Clan to that list, too.

[Magua]

How about we hold off on further nukings until we can look at the flip from Revenge of Wei?

(inb4lolEuropeanbageleater)

Why?

Also, someone tell me why Fate wouldn't kill Kat as scum. I don't get it. Because she had a townread on him? If anything, Fate would kill her because of that.

Because I think SDC is town.

As scum, do you make a habit of killing people with a townread on you, outside of lylo? I'll take examples.

I was looking into this and thought it was a caesar cipher with a second encryption. But wow. I forgot scum could do ciphers manually so I was looking for something less complicated since most scum using a playfair cipher would have to use an outside source unless they were taught pre-game.

Scum had plenty of time with a leakproof QT to set up a code. I'm assuming (and will be mighty pissed if it's not the case, postgame) that the scum aren't allowed to use a computational code -- that it has to be something that can be done by hand -- but I think LLD is right on it being playfair.

That doesn't explain the words without spaces, though. Are they taking the spaces away so it's harder?

Most ciphers remove spaces because otherwise it becomes too easy to crack the cipher. The rest of your stuff on the subject doesn't make any sense; not sure what you mean by "just tried to decrypt them", as there's 25! permutations for a playfair.

[Magua]

Hinduragi is town. danakillsu needs to be cancelling his nuke.

[Magua]

Double post: Yes, this 180 of mine is a direct response to his claim.

[Magua]

Chances are very high that every scumteam member has a different key.

"don't bus me" message doesn't indicate scum have sub; it indicates a scum (who is possibly bussed) who has a silo or the sub. Even a guaranteed confirmed scum who has a silo can get the nuke off if they live to D3.

Just leaked phrase has an odd number of letters, indicates fake.

Oh, good. Dana recalled his nuke. I'm putting him in the town pile now, too; very easy for scum to have just let that go and have a trade.

[Magua]

Unless I miss my guess, that translates into "Sub tried to launch a nuke, but was Aircraft Carrier'd"

Which is lulz, because in addition to everything else, we can force a massclaim if necessary then to find and kill another scum today.

[Magua]

Sociopath, why would you send your nuke anonymously instead of declaring it in the thread?

[Magua]

Sociopath, why would you send your nuke anonymously instead of declaring it in the thread?

This is a terrible post.

Tell me how it's terrible. Tell me how town gains anything from nuking anonymously.

[Magua]

Lying about roleblock target is crap. There's only four *possible people* amongst the 25 who will not necessarily find out if they were roleblocked -- Airbase, Fallout Shelter, Vengeful, and Battleship. Everyone else has some power that gives them a report, or a nuke they're going to launch today. "lolgammaliedaboutrbtarget" is Dumb with a capital D.

The only thing that will possibly change my mind about that is if someone else tries to launch a nuke today and fails, and, let me tell you, that's not going to happen, because, as above, Dumb.

Sociopath trying to nuke anonymously is so incredibly scummy.

you'd not nuke anonymously as town? it's far more awesome, i bet it feels 10x better.

Speak to me of the benefit of why you would.

Look at my track record.
Look at how scum would react to them being nuked off one by one without a way to stop the source.
Look at all the possibilities.

So many things wrong with this.

A town is not keeping the sub anonymous past D3. Only scum who can trade a claim with another scum or the SK can do that.
"One by one" is bullshit when you're not going to get more than two nukes anyways.
Finally, I think SDC is town, so, yeah.

I think you tried to nuke someone, who may or may not be SDC, failed, sat for a bit, and then realized that you'd get outted by massclaim. I further think a real townie would've just used the sub to launch a regular nuke, in the thread, like an American, rather than anonymously, like the Europeans with their stealth bombers.

So, yeah.

[Magua]

Double post: LLD, could that maybe POSSIBLY have waited until the nuke on Gamma hit?

This is why Total War will always be a terrible idea.

[Magua]

Gamma is certified 100% European scum. Why do I need to wait?

Since he's certified 100% European scum, you're ok with dying if he's not?

Because Lord knows, *I* wouldn't be ok with that in your position.

[Magua]

You only have 48 hours to abort your nuke. Gamma won't get nuked until that has elapsed.

HOW IS IT YOU BREAK CODES AND MISS THINGS LIKE THIS AT THE SAME TIME?

[Magua]

However, if I am roleblocked and scum, my team would know that I was roleblocked, and there would be very little reason to feel safe to post anything.

You wouldn't know you're roleblocked. Gamma's strategy is actually quite a beautiful plan, and pretty much perfectly clears you if he flips town.

Everything else you say is true, though.

[Magua]

If regfan is scum, one of mina, ludi,

TT

, toog is scum with him. sorry if my notes are coming sporadically, massive headache atm.
Hindu, would you like me to clarify what I said?

<_<
>_>

[Magua]

LLD, you need to recall your nuke.

[Magua]

UNVOTE: Revenge of Wei
VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

[Magua]

ITT, IIoA

MagnaofIllusion nukes Sociopath (Thursday at 9:19 EST)
Internet Stranger nukes Revenge of Wei (Thursday at 9:51 EST)
danakillsu nukes Hinduragi, recalls it
PookyTheMagicalBear nukes Gammagooey (Thursday at 19:30 EST)
Sociopath fails to nuke (claims target of ScreamingDeathClan)
Revenge of Wei nukes Swift Justice (Friday at 3:01 EST)
LadyLambdadelta nukes Toogeloo, recalls it

[Magua]

@Mod:

Is LLD's nuke recalled by #1452?

@Swift Justice:

One of Regfan or Magister Ludi, with more of a preference on Regfan. If Revenge of Wei flips town instead of scum, Internet Stranger.

(Yes, the recall has been noted in the vote count. --AGM)

[Magua]

I didn't want to say it because of the shit Socio was pointing out about revealing my N2 target but I've got role info that makes Gamma look like a piece of shit lying Euro trashbag. I am pretty sure I got roleblocked last night. I got a message saying the target has not been received. Good enough for you? UNLESS SOMEONE WOULD LIKE TO OFFER AN EXPLANATION TO WHY MY SECOND INHIM PROTECTION FAILED,(which, trust me, I spent a while trying to figure out after what Gamma said to make sure inHim wasn't anything like Air Base and I wasn't about to fuck us up by misreading into a PM or anything) continue on with EuroGamma-nuking

IHSIB should claim if he has the Airbase or not. Assuming that IHSIB doesn't claim Airbase, this is 100% correct -- Magna should abort the nuke on Sociopath and Gamma should die in a fire.

[Magua]

Gamma-scum roleblock of Sociopath-town also reads really, really, really, really badly for SDC.

[Magua]

@Magna:

Do you think Hinduragi is town or scum?

[Magua]

@Gammagooey:

One of you/Hinduragi must 100% be scum, guaranteed. True/false?

[Magua]

Kindly suicide now with the magic phrase then.

[Magua]

hey magua why the fuck are you asking gamma who's claimed scum in the thread questions.

Hey, Swift, why the fuck would you nuke anonymously as town?

Because I *can*.

[Magua]

@MagnaofIllusion:

Unless Gammagooey suicides and flips town, you need to recall your Sociopath nuke.

[Magua]

You are acceptable casualties at this point.

Gammagooey is scum, Revenge of Wei is most likely scum, SDC is most likely scum.

MagnaofIllusion can recall his nuke or admit to being scum and get nuked in return. Either way works out well, though the latter certainly makes things shorter.

Then we simply have our nuclear daisy chain of death leaving Sociopath/Hinduragi/ToastyToast/maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Mina but not so sure on her anymore alive at the end.

[Magua]

@Toast:

Gammagooey-scum confirms Hinduragi-town.

Gammagooey-scum strongly implies, but does not confirm, Sociopath-town *and* ScreamingDeathClan-scum. (It's not "confirmed" because Katsuki may still have been the one to Aircraft Carrier Sociopath. But, interactions strongly point to Sociopath-town before Gamma-gate exploded.)

Gammagooey-scum strongly implies PookyTheMagicalBear-town (Not "confirmed" because of possible bus, Lord knows I'm paranoid about these things since ASoS).

Revenge of Wei-scum strongly implies Internet Stranger-town (see Gammagooey vs Pooky, above)

FMPOV, MagnaofIllusion refusing to abort his nuke on Sociopath is a scumclaim at this point.

UNVOTE: LadyLambdadelta
VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

[Magua]

@Magua

- if you are so sold on the fact that Hindu's claim is accurate (in regards to getting Mod confirmation he was blocked, when this is far from standard procedure on MS IMO) then why didn't Socio receive something similar when he was 'blocked'?

Because. End of answer.

You can let your Sociopath nuke go through, as there's absolutely no way to stop you. If he flips scum, I'll be all "lolwut?" and you'll be all "Maguayousucklrn2play" and I'll be all "INORITE?" But if he flips town, you die.

Sound like a good deal?

@Swift Justice:

Regfan is far from a terrible nuke.

[Magua]

ITT, thread becomes useless until Thursday evening.

I feel I shouldn't have to say this, but:

IF YOUR NEXT 72 HOURS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS:

THEN DON'T LAUNCH A NUKE NOW

[Magua]

I’m actually going to amend this deal Magua …

If Socio does flip scum instead I’m going to turn you into a glowing crater, assuming I live til the next day.

Because we’ve established being wrong is grounds for Death.

This is entirely fine by me.

[Magua]

uh, or you could kill scum like good amerikans.

And steal your glory?

[Magua]

Btw, after giving it a think, Swift, I would nuke

MagnaofIllusion

SDC upon a Sociopath-town flip. I would nuke Regfan on a Sociopath-scum flip.

[Magua]

Hey. Gamma.

Do you want to play a game of WIFOM?

[Magua]

magua why do you think Vi nuked us? for our reads or because we're 'obvtown' with a Vi and gamma scumflip? i'd like to think it's for our reads.

I'm going to burst your bubble a bit. I don't think it's a good nuke. There's enough crossover from Mafia Metamafia where obvtown-Faraday was scum that there would always be suspicion about you (see D1 quadz08 bus)

But (sorry) I don't believe that your reads have to be incredibly on the money, or you would've been killed N2 instead of Katsuki because God knows anytime you talk about who died at night everyone screams WIFOM. My working assumption is that you're getting nuked because you have the capacity to be a strong town leader, not necessarily because your D2 reads were on target.

[Magua]

DON'T APOLOGISE, I thought the first 2 dead scum were scum so ^_^. i'll assume the equinox strong town leader part makes sense as it certainly doesn't apply to me, but yeah. I was initially suspicious of IS, because...well why not nuke the guy who nuked you as scum, but his 'what if Vi's a freighter' or something looks townish.

I don't have a townread on Internet Stranger. IS has nuking Revenge of Wei going for him, but I've found nothing in his actual play to be town. PookyTheMagicalBear is in pretty much the same boat for me -- nuking Gamma, but reading their posts leaves me all meh inside. Contrast to Sociopath, who I actually believe is town not based on his actions (his sub nuke could've been on anyone, we have no way of knowing) but because his stances and output read to me as town.

I think Mina, ToastyToast, Hinduragi are all town, and I'm pretty sure that two of them will live to endgame, so now it's just a game of seeing how few "OMG GEORGE WHY IS AMERICA NUKING ITSELF" posts from AlmasterGM we're going to see.

@Toogeloo:

Did you submit any actions for N1/N2?

@Regfan:

Include in your catch who you want to nuke. Plz to be providing this before Thursday.

[Magua]

Actually, Gamma voted Regfan earlier today. I'm uncomfortable with a Regfan nuke at this point. Maybe after a few others

Assume that HezLucky is off the table. Who would you prefer to nuke?

Its quite funny. I have heard speeches like this before. I usually hear them from scum when they realize that I have reached a point when I have caught my first few scum and now they realize that they cant push a lynch on me. So what do they do? Start the conspiracy theory superbus talk.

Pretty much why I don't have a townread on IS.

Is Magua really trying to say that Socio is somehow more American than I am? Thats just plain silly.

That is actually exactly what I'm saying.

If I dont survive, it will be easy to know why now.

There is no way, no how that you're dying tonight, so what is this I don't even.

Feel free to nuke me tomorrow. Hey, Sociopath could come up scum and then you and Magna can fight over it.

[Magua]

Magua, why is Hez off the table?

Because there's no point in me asking the question if you just respond with, "HezLucky, duh," now is there?

[Magua]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhnUgAaea4M

[Magua]

I've seen the Dropkick Murphys in concert. They were pretty awesome.

[Magua]

I'm apparently alone in finding his reaction to being nuked feels kind of townish

Hello there. My posts would like to be introduced to you, as obviously you've never met.

you do realise Vi has probably changed the account password so csl can't log in and do something stupid, rit?

I imagine a variant of this was posted in the hydra QT:

Vi: I hate being scum. Well, let's strategize.
CSL: It's not so bad, here, I posted some incredibly bizarre reads in the gamethread.
Vi: Oh and now our entire scumteam is bussing us because we're obvscum.
CSL: It's not so bad, here, I posted some entirely different bizarre reads that make no sense.
Vi: Oh and now we're being nuked.
CSL: It's not so bad, I went ahead and nuked Swift Justice.
Vi:

[Magua]

Tomorrow can't come fast enough.

[Magua]

I like the part of the story where dana has one of the self-admitted scum as maybe-scum?, and another self-admitted scum as town, and is then yelling at a generic someone for nuking his self-admitted-scum-who-is-a-town-read.

There's no way that dana's not town.

[Magua]

HEY GAMMA

I HAVE A SURPRISE FOR YOU!

VVVV OPEN VVVV

Spoiler:

[Magua]

Sociopath, do you think Magna is town?

[Magua]

MoI still has done nothing but take out confirmed town since the day started.
I was confirmed before the 48 hours were up, yet he kept the NOOK FLYIN.
And has only active lurked since then.

Do not let him live until tomorrow.
Do not let him have access to another NOOK.
He needs to be NOOK'd.

This the same Magna you just said is probably town?

[Magua]

[Magua]

Regfan admits scum. I'm unsurprised, though I am surprised that he didn't wait until he was getting nuked first. He's still scum.

I have no nuke, or I would simply nuke Regfan back. I'll give Regfan the opportunity to recall his nuke, but him doing it at this point where he's pretty close to going to bed and knowing that Swift Justice is going to be sending off the nuke is a pretty sure sign that he's not intending to do so.

My claim:

Radar

. My N2 report was Hinduragi targeting inHimshallibe, and is the reason I did a complete 180 when Hinduragi claimed and his visit matched up with my report (I expected scum would have lied). (I also PMed Almaster repeatedly about how this works with Aircraft Carrier/Airbase -- Radar reports on who was selected, not whether the action succeeded. So don't even start on "Hinduwasroleblockedlolololyouslipped")

My N1 report is not terribly useful, but I will hold onto in case it comes up before I am nuked.

(My list, FWIW:

Battleship
Eavesdrop
Fighter
Radar
Espionage
Aircraft Carrier)

Reads:
SDC needs to die. However, SDC does not seem to have a nuke, so SDC can die at some point down the road/tomorrow, depending on how nukings go. If SDC ever displays that they have a nuke, kill them with fire.
MagnaofIllusion needs to die.
Regfan needs to die.

Those are pretty much in reverse order -- Regfan needs to die more than MagnaofIllusion needs to die more than SDC. So, yeah, Swift, I would nuke Regfan were I you.

[Magua]

I do not share Swift Justice's townread on MagnaofIllusion. At all.

I do share Swift Justice's townread on Mina, and on ToastyToast. Hinduragi is confirmed clear. Toogeloo is in my mind confirmed clear (because Toogeloo + gorilla are not *both* scum, and gorilla got leaks on D3 which would be the *prime* time that scum would want to be freely Daytalking). These people live to see the beautiful American tomorrow.

gorilla is probably town (albeit incredibly unhelpful town), and gets to live until everyone else but those above has been killed.

i don't suppose you can suicide so I can get your town flip to confirm it damn it.

<_<
>_>

Like you're not going to nuke Regfan anyways.

[Magua]

FATE, I'M GOING TO SAY THIS ONE TIME

IF YOU ARE TOWN, WHICH I DOUBT, BUT WHATEV, IF YOU ARE TOWN,

KINDLY READ THE GODDAMN FUCKING THREAD EVERY ONCE IN AWHILE

.

Stopped a kill N1? No. You didn't. Read the thread.

Missed the HUGE NOOK PICTURES and Sociopath's town flip? No.

You fucking fucked it up in Metamafia because you couldn't be ass'ed to read the thread or even read why the fuck you were getting lynched, and now here you're acting like you can't be ass'ed to read the thread and understand why you're going to get lynched or nuked. FUCKING SHUT UP, READ THE THREAD, AND HELP.

[Magua]

True Americans Who Need Never Die

Hinduragi
Mina
ToastyToast
Toogeloo

Citizens Who Can See A Beautiful

Tomorrow

D4

danakillsu
gorilla
Internet Stranger
Lady Lambdadelta
PookyTheMagicalBear

Sacrificed So Freedom May Ring

HezLucky
inHimshallibe
Magister Ludi
MagnaofIllusion
Regfan
Screaming Death Clan

WHO DIED N1? JUST SPYREX RIGHT?

SO DONT GIVE ME THAT SHIT

Europeans did not get a night-kill N1. This was mentioned. Repeatedly.

[Magua]

Sorry, but I will get to live to D4 imo.

Getting to D4 is predicated on being somewhat useful D3.

[Magua]

@Swift Justice:

I slotted both danakillsu and LLD there because they recalled nukes on obvtown. It's not "lolconfirmedinno", but it's at least a willingness to play well with others.

As opposed to, say, MoI.

@HezLucky:

What makes you think I haven't thought? What, of all my play, gives you the impression that I do things without thinking?

[Magua]

Why do you think you would be a confirmed innocent?

[Magua]

@HezLucky:

Look at Regfan's interactions with Vi.

@Swift Justice:

LLD was threatened with a nuke, recalled. MoI was threatened with a nuke, did not recall. I know which one I would prefer to leave until D4.

[Magua]

IHSIB, Hez, do you have nukes?

[Magua]

EBWOP: Magua. What part of the Regfan/Vi interaction are you asking me to look at? I ask becaues BOTH of these players have me as town, and they are one of the few that are defending me hard.

They both spent awhile attacking eachother. They're both scum.

Ok. IHSIB can live.

Hez, do you have a nuke?

[Magua]

Magister Ludi, this is the time for claimings.

Hez, do you have a nuke? y/n

[Magua]

I'm a little hesitant to answer this because I don't understand the rolefishing. If I have a nuke, it will be incredibly obvious when I use said nuke. If my not answering this causes scum nightkill WIFOM then that's fine by me.

If you have a nuke, you will be expected to use said nuke. Before the end of the Day.

The question is "How many unfired nukes there are."

The chance of you getting NKed by scum is 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% regardless of what you claim.

Now answer.

[Magua]

Listen up, champ.

If we don't nuke anyone, we trade 1 town-directed lynch for 1 mafia-directed kill. That's 1:1, and is a pretty bad bargain.

Every nuke we have makes that one more town-directed lynch, without increasing the number of mafia-directed kills. 4 nukes makes it a 5:1, which is much better. 7 nukes makes it 8:1.

If you have a nuke, you will nuke today, or you will get lynched. Simple as that.

So the question is, do you have a nuke?

@Swift Justice:

You should nuke Regfan. If you nuke non-obv-scum, it doesn't give any more relationship information, because any scum is now bussing Regfan. We want the uncleareds to be the ones possible nuking non-obv-scum.

[Magua]

Nukin' in the front seat
Nukin' in the back seat
Gotta make my mind up
Which nuke will I taaaaaaaaaaaake?

[Magua]

Magua, now's your chance to claim if you actually DID put Air Base at number one, and weren't just trolling Fate with your threat to do so.

I already posted my list. #1 was Battleship.

Part of the SDC trolling was to WIFOM kills away from me, and to WIFOM kills onto SDC.

Mina, if you have a nuke, you must nuke today.

If you have a nuke in defensive position, I will break you.

Magister Ludi needs to claim nuke/no nuke.

[Magua]

What Hez has is obvious to anyone with two brain cells to rub together.

Or is a scumclaim. One of the two.

[Magua]

(ps if ludi is scum then fate is basically confirmed town via hydraslip early in thread)

Elaborate.

[Magua]

(ps if ludi is scum then fate is basically confirmed town via hydraslip early in thread)

Elaborate.

What does this matter.

It's this weird thing town does. They try to identify who the other town are. And then maybe not kill that person. So they're usually interested when people start throwing around "If X then Y is confirmed town."

I know. Crazy, right?

[Magua]

We have a list that is generally accepted, that will be enacted upon, and will bring us to victory. Poking holes in the plan is now the priority, not worrying about whether Air Base Fate, who agreed to die before the end, is conftown.

You simply can't be serious.

[Magua]

Could be useful in determining what to do with gorilla, which I think solidified himself as a townlock.

Humor me and assume with me that Regfan is scum. That leaves two scum remaining. Who do you think they are?

[Magua]

[Magua]

That's me reading this game at any point after D3.

[Magua]

He thought Pooky had nuked, and he thought he was clever with the whole "stop going to Night" thing without actually asking the mod if 1 vote to NL in a 1v1 scenario would go to Night or not.

[Magua]

(Okay Pooky I obviously retract everything I've said now that you're scum)

Had Pooky not violated Rule 14 what would have happened?

(And oh look, I got one right. LOL)

You would've been lynched, Pooky NK's gorilla, Europeans win.

Or do you mean if there was no hijinx and no votes? Pooky would live. His silo was in defensive mode, so he wasn't going to die from IHSIB's nuke.

[Magua]

hmm thats not a very satisfying victory then.

Yes.

gorilla

was one of many people who

almost cost ust he game o_O

FTFY

[Magua]

Yes, AGM. The flavor scenes were awesome, and even though I hate George with the passion of a thousand suns, they got better and better as the game went on. It was incredibly smoothly modded and, aside from the raging, very fun. Kudos.

Sucks about the end, but I don't think there's any good way to have handled it. =/

pretty sure defensive mode nuke only affects when a launch is targeted at you and not after it has been launched

oh man do i look silly

Er. Er.

[Magua]

It makes no sense to be nitpicky about Dana recall being not worded exactly then suddenly expand what is acceptable as a launch command to half folded text.

AGM accepted dana's original recall command (it's post #1223 in the Dead QT), as was LLD's Day 3. AGM is pretty consistent.

[Magua]

To get exactly the reaction out of gorilla that he did.

[Magua]

MoI - Do you have anything better to do than ask stupid questions?

Now in 97% less anger: Why did you fake the nuke pooky?