Flash mafia 3 (town wins)

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Ellibereth
<3 but you're scum.

[Llamarble]

Town:
Llamarble
DGB
Ythill

Probtown:
Parabollocks

Probscum:
Agoti
Farside

Scum:
Tajo
Elli

Whee I already solved it mostly!

[Llamarble]

Yeah, most of my reads are obviously pretty feeble but I do have some confidence Elli's scum.
And yep GW is already scum too.

[Llamarble]

It's not that Elli voted NL (he definitely has done that as town).
His post felt like "I suppose it's my duty to post something so I'll do this" rather than "I'mma try and find some scum by doing this."

[Llamarble]

Fun fact: Some town-sourced thing has killed me in each game with an early Fate wagon.
VOTE: Fate

I feel vaguely manipulated by Ythill.
I liked Regfan's post.

[Llamarble]

Town: Ythill, LLarmable, Farside, Prozac, Fate.
Scum: Ghost

Fate is town purely because of the wagon on him which you think is dumb but you also have townreads on most members of the wagon?
Please explain how this works.
VOTE: Regfan

[Llamarble]

VOTE: populartajo
I want to hear from Fate/Crypto. I am currently working under the assumption that they simply haven't seen the thread yet, except situation is kind of awkward because I feel like if scum they would have and also there was never a confirmation stage...

[Llamarble]

readz so far

town: llamarble, ythill, regfan, prozac

meh: elli, dgb, agoti or parabollocks (but not scum together)

scum: ghost, fate or farside (but not scum together)}

post moar: everyone else

town: llamarble, ythill, regfan, prozac

town: prozac

town: prozac

Just what are you trying to pull? You never think Im town.

you just became obvtown

This felt to me like the DGB-Equi interaction D1 in whiteflag.
DGBscum called Equi town, Equi was like 'What??' and DGB was "see now you're really obvtown."

I'm behind though. I'll catch up tomorrow.

[Llamarble]

Fate + Farside?

[Llamarble]

Oh, I don't think I'm so awful at reading you Fate, or at least my track record is decent so far.
Also I don't get why 'Tajo's reads are lol.' They seem to mostly agree with yours.
What do you think of Tajo?

[Llamarble]

Ok, catching up.

[Llamarble]

I am sold on GWscum and Ythill town and Farsidetown.
Also leaning town on DGB/Elli.
Fate seems a fairly likely GWbuddy, but we'll get there later.

VOTE: GhostWriter

Basically he WAY THE HELL OVEREXPLAINED his rvs thought process, and I don't see town considering those things when choosing where to place their vote at that stage of the game. Other things too.

[Llamarble]

Eh, I am not sold on Amrun/UTscum.
Still very happy with GW anhilation.

[Llamarble]

I don't disagree that vanilla claims give me twinges of worry, but scum do claim VT sometimes.
Also claimed RB reduces the odds of a scumPRclaim. Or at least it would if I was scum.

[Llamarble]

Well now we'll see.
If for some reason I get shot, scrutinize Fate carefully.
Best way to put my feelings about him is he makes me feel uneasy.

[Llamarble]

Mreh I'm not 900000% confident you're scum, just uneasy and don't want AMG to happen again.

[Llamarble]

Oh man!
I think we lynch whoever Farside RBed, assuming scum aren't allowed to intentionally nokill.
Like doctor protect is possible but mechanically the odds of whoever farside RBed being scum are substantially higher than anyone else's.
Yes, I'm assuming Farside is town, but I think that is not wrong.

Mod, what are the rules regarding whether scum are permitted to no-kill?

So with no kills we probably have 1 scumteam of 3 then?

[Llamarble]

Yikes.
'tis annoying when game mechanics give a townie the highest odds of being scum or a scum the lowest.
At least this is better than a copinnocent on a godfather since this isn't game ending but merely sucks.

I wouldn't have submitted the kill for my team because of:

Give a list on whom I'm thinking of roleblock?

If so:

Untrod, LlamaM, Regan (god damn itch), Fate (not trusting him) and throw in Girlonthenet because of a current game that I read someone as a VI and they flipped scum.

Anyway, this does mean that some kind of doc-protect is the most likely reason for kill failure.
Which means we can turn a doc + their target into masons.

But yeah if I were anybody other than me I'd be lynching me right now, so I guess I'll do a readthrough and give you my most important insights.
Bleh.

[Llamarble]

Stuff'll be tomorrow.
I am quite confident Amrun's town, actually.

Whoever doc is should breadcrumb their protect at some point 'cause I'mma flip town and if doc dies then doublesuck.

I am concerned about scumspiracy farside roleblocks town and nokills intentionally?
But Farside blocking me doesn't really make her any more likely to be scum.
Also scum nokilling means they require an extra mislynch anyway because oddeven so that gambit doesn't actually do anything.

[Llamarble]

^ INSINCERE-SOUNDING
Haha day started like 1 day ago.
And I'll do my best to tell you who all the townies are, but I'm guessing you know more about that than I.

[Llamarble]

Llamarble sounds honest...

That's cause I am!
But whereas most people have odds ~3/12 of being scum (from a townie's perspective, I have odds around 3/12 * (1/3 + 1/12) / 2/12 = ~60%.
P(me scum | nokill) = P(me scum) * P(nokill | me scum) / P(nokill)
I didn't do that very precisely, but the point is you'd have to be sufficiently confident in your townread of me to ignore that I'm objectively something like twice as likely to be scum as everyone else. And I don't think anybody thinks I'm bad enough at being scum that they'd be able to justify lynching somebody else.

But yeah I'mma do my reread now.

[Llamarble]

FIRST PASS:
AGOTI - SCUM WITH FATE/TAJO
AMRUN - WEAKTOWN

GW felt town to me. I hammered him because the majority was bent on lynching him and I was getting fed up with the dragged-out day.

CRYPTO - HAVEN'T SEEN TOWN DO ^. HAVE DONE ^ AS SCUM MYSELF. OTHERWISE NOT TOO BAD. BLORG.
DGB - PROBTOWN
ELLI - TOWN
FARSIDE - TOWN. ME FLIPPING TOWN DOES NOT ACTUALLY MAKE HER SCUM LIKE IT WOULD IF SHE WERE A COP WHO CLAIMED A GUILTY.
PARABOLLOCKS - PROBTOWN
TAJO - WEAKSCUM
PROZAC-WEAKTOWN
REGFAN - SCUMMMMMMMM
YTHILL- NOT 9000000% OBVTOWN BUT STILL PROBABLY TOWN.

VOTE: REGFAN

So my first guess is Regfan + Agoti + Tajo?
I will iterate again later tonight or tomorrow and make cases etc.

[Llamarble]

Huh, Fate got dropped.
I had written
FATE - TOWN (HA)

[Llamarble]

I will iterate again later tonight or tomorrow and make cases etc.

How about you talk about Regfan some.

[Llamarble]

Elli, I was ISOing in order and when I read AGOTI I had residual scumreads on Fate/Tajo from D1

[Llamarble]

So FIRST PASS convinced me scum are playing pretty well.
SECOND PASS:
AGOTI:

Regfan, Ellibereth, P-Bollocks, crypto, and iffily DGB - a list of people who should be lynched before Ghost. Regfan for sitting on coattails, the middle 3 because they are of very little use, the more central you go the more useless they get and DGB for playing totally against her meta.

dun get what reggie is doin in this list. he's alrite.

Is a mild towntell.
Scum don't often YO I HAZ MINOR ISSUE WITH YOUR SCUMLIST, but if she is scum it's likely one of Poro/Regfan is too.
'I wanna hammer Farside lol' is also a somewhat town thing to say.
I have said "I'm tempted to QH here" as town; as scum I've either been afraid to mention it or just done it for the ballspoints.
Otherwise she seems to approve of the D1 wagons without getting super involved, but the source of the approval seems to exist.
I can follow her thought process and it makes sense, her motives make sense, and a couple individual towntells = TOWNREAD.

AMRUN:
Predecessor UT did :JACKSHIT:
No comments on major lynch wagons D1, and although semi v/la GW ISO wasn't a long read at all.

Still v/la, haven't read. Will be all read up by tomorrow, so should I still be alive, I will share my reads tomorrow.

Meh I don't think town Amrun bothers with "if I'm still alive" considering the likelihood of scum NKing her was like zero.
Rest of her posting is making me lean scum mildly. Her case on Parabollocks sounds like cases I make as scum.
So I'm getting a scumread here. But I'm getting tired so I'll pick up with Amrun tomorrow.

[Llamarble]

Oh and that thing where I quoted myself was in response to Farside.
She asked me to explain my reads when I had already promised to make cases later, so I repeated myself and asked her to interact with my top scumread in the meantime.
Nagging is a towntell though even if it annoys me, heh.

[Llamarble]

BTW Fate I read you right in Mostly Mountainous, 1175, AMG, Maf with hydras.
In Dilemma mafia I happily townallianced you and called you town but that read frayed because we kept lynching townies and I thought I was wrong about something. I didn't actually attempt to lynch you though.
Lovers Multiball I thought you + Reck scumteam would make sense by lylo but wasn't sure and didn't really do anything about it other than ask townies to unvote other townies which didn't happen.
So yeah, track record not at all horrible.

[Llamarble]

Also haha @ Regfan expecting me to play like in Buffy mafia.
I was FREAKING PRESCIENT in that game and called that Giles would be in the setup + a demon cop, that Jason was scum preparing to fakeclaim Angel in his early posting, and that we would quicklynch all the scum.
And days 2 and 3 Reg's hydra of pure awesome with Slaxx gave us copguilties.

THAT GAME WAS AWESOME BTW.

[Llamarble]

@Regfan,

I didn't like him yesterday. Then his first post today was this:

Oh man!
I think we lynch whoever Farside RBed, assuming scum aren't allowed to intentionally nokill.
Like doctor protect is possible but mechanically the odds of whoever farside RBed being scum are substantially higher than anyone else's.
Yes, I'm assuming Farside is town, but I think that is not wrong.

Mod, what are the rules regarding whether scum are permitted to no-kill?

So with no kills we probably have 1 scumteam of 3 then?

Makes a suggestion on lynching someone who has been targetted by someone who could as easily be town and scum, lynching a person who would give us no information come the next day. He's making assumptions he shouldn't be making and suggesting we go for a what is a completel flawed plan. Then he ends asking a question which is obvious and making yet another assumption he shouldnt be making.

That was my reasoning for that post. The roleblock on him was the ironic icing on the cake.

The person she roleblocked clearly has the highest odds of being scum. Something stopped the kill and she had already claimed a power capable of doing that.
It's not like a simple 1v1 where her odds of being scum equal mine; her chances of being scum are as low as anyone's. Also I think she's town.
Would you complain about no information if a cop claimed a guilty on somebody? That's just dumb.
If there is one player with substantially higher odds of being scum than others, you lynch them. Or at least this is how one maximizes odds-of-winning.
Now I have to convince people I'm so face-meltingly town it doesn't matter that I start with roughly twice the odds of being scum everybody else does.

[Llamarble]

"I am tempted to hammer right now" is different from "I am waiting for X to be at L - 1 so I can hammer"
But I'll get to Farside later today.
Worry about getting vigged kind of makes sense, but as scum I do feel an obligation to 'if I'm alive tomorrow' more often than I do as town.
So I guess that works out slightly south of null.
But I'll be rereading you today too anyway.

[Llamarble]

I don't like Amrun's Parabollocks paragraph.
But scum don't usually complain about hating it when people claim scum.
I need more scumreads I think.
I am going to table Amrun for now and get on with other guys.

Elli's early posting feels like he's trying to lay the towntells on extra thick rather than trying to blow things up and find guys.
But I'll get to him later too.

[Llamarble]

I'll be reading more tonight.
I'd be annoyed if hammered before I get a chance to give reads.

[Llamarble]

Okay, if Fate is mafia has has THOROUGHLY bamboozled me. I am at willing-to-lose-if-Fate-is-scum point.
Ythill, AGOTI, Farside are all also clearly town. Porochaz too.

The scumteam are some combo of
Parabollocks
Tajo
Regfan
Parabollocks Tajo Regfan
Regfan
Tajo
Parabollocks

Crypto is kind of a backup scum but not really.
Amrun also.
Elli is probtown.

[Llamarble]

DGB is nullrange but more likely town than not.
What do people think of my scums?
I'll keep making cases tomorrow.
This list above was pretty thoroughly researched.

[Llamarble]

Yep, there will be more explaining tonight and Friday is an acceptable deadline for getting all my stuff down.
180 on Fate happened in my first pass reread and solidified last night.
I'd be happy if this were like Dilemma mafia, except long term town virtually MUST lynch me unless I like lynch all scum in a row or something. Or Farside flips scum, but that doesn't seem likely.

[Llamarble]

It's not like I haven't been doing anything.

Most people in this game are pretty town. Maybe Ythill isn't or something?
Para is scum basically for not being very town and by association to others, so I'm not really interested in lynching him today.
I'm substantially more confident of Regfanscum than the others, so I'll just make that case now.

[Llamarble]

Regfan Case:
SCUMTELL # 1:
RUN ON SENTENCES (more specifically paragraphs that feel like they are dribbling out a bunch of major points in a row rather than making real focused arguments).
(this is also a major reason Amrun's phrasing of her Parabollocks case bothered me)
I've caught myself writing a lot of I think X and Y and Z type run-ons as scum recently.
As town I usually give each thought its own sentence / explanation because I'm considering each idea more deeply.
Jungle Republic Regfan's sentences feel like this game Regfan. PYP he has paragraphs of more forcefully worded clear explanations of his points.

We interrupt this broadcast to announce Amrun kind of has pinged me and is fighting for Para's place alongside Regfan & Tajo.

[Llamarble]

Ha. Well I think it works. Why do you disagree?

[Llamarble]

Para isn't my number 1 suspect, Regfan is.
Also it's not simply rambling and grammar mistakes.
It's more about chaining ideas together without exploring the significance of each.
Sorry if I wasn't clear.

[Llamarble]

REGFAN SCUMTELL #2:
LACK OF PONDERING.
One of the big things that made me like Regfan-town so much in 1156 & Buffy mafia was him pointing out interesting things and busting up scum.

In this game he has said the following things of note:
Fate's town for not spamminating.
Poro is town for challenging a townread on him.
Farside is town for being stubborn.
Ghost's is trying to make contributions but not being useful -> scum.
Then he comes out with this laundry-list of a couple tells with each person.

Just not a high density of puzzling overall. I don't see gears grinding and persistence about the importance of individual thoughts.

SCUMTELL #3
INTERACTION WITH TAJO:
"YOU IS MAKE NO SENSE BUT I AM NOT INTERACT WITH YOU FURTHER FOR AWHILE"
Scum especially do this when a buddy busses them, but regardless of Tajo's alignment this bothers me.


I'll go get some examples of Regfan jamming ideas together.

[Llamarble]

Reg also didn't interact much with stuff that was going down while his top suspect Ghost (whom he didn't really say much about) was getting lynched D1. That's more a 'look and see if you agree with me that he's not engaging' than anything concrete though.
Yes I did just make that observation. Recently I've been doing a lot of my scumhunting by looking through the game and trying to figure things out and not really taking notes unless I see something huge. Then I give my reads and start trying to identify the things that caused them when it's time to sell them.

His reads Laundrylist is the best example of jamming ideas together I think. Each paragraph piles together a few observations on a person, few of which he had mentioned prior to that post. The Porochaz/Amrun/Me paragraphs especially.

His paragraph on me tosses roleblocked + trying to get doc to crumb + Trying not to have readable interactions.
I AM HAPPY TO INTERACT.
INTERACT WITH ME BITCHES WHEEEEEE
ALSO I'M A VT
HOW'S THAT FEEL TAJO?


ALSO I AM TOTALLY WHITEKNIGHT BAIT BECAUSE TOWN BASICALLY _HAS_ TO LYNCH ME AT SOME POINT SO THERE'S THAT.

[Llamarble]

By the way even though I have better chances of being scum than anyone else rolewise and should probably be lynched I still have a perfectly reasonable chance of being town SO YOU BETTER NOT BE SURPRISED

[Llamarble]

That Tajo-Chaz interaction reminded me a lot of the DGB-Equinox scumontown interaction from Whiteflag.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Amrun

[Llamarble]

What is my timing?

[Llamarble]

Amrun has TREEBARKDEERSQUISH towntell and ANNOYEDBYSCUMCLAIM towntell but she actually is a better example of runonscumtell than Regfan.
Is also aloofyquestionywatertesty.

Tajo I need to think about more because he has both kinds of tells too.

And my top 5 was Regfan Tajo Parabollocks Amrun Crypto or somesuch but iz shufflin around since I've been spending the last couple hours on this game.

[Llamarble]

I confirm masonry.

[Llamarble]

I've been wanting to try mason-bussing since thinking about how annoying it would be had town done so in Beehive mafia.

[Llamarble]

You REALLY don't get the concept of distancing DO YOU?

Why distance as masons. It makes no sense.

I have typically found it really easy as scum (or town) to identify the remaining mason after one is gone.
Scum never expect masonbussing, so it solves the 'all masons die in a row' problem.

P. edit: Yep.

[Llamarble]

I'm confirmed town for role related reasons.

Crumbly crumbs

[Llamarble]

Also it didn't need to be 2-way to work. Just keep scum from knowing the remaining one after one's gone.
Fate masonbussing me was more likely to get me seriously run up than me bussing him was to get him run up.

[Llamarble]

@Tajo:
Irrespective of all role stuff, you agree my play has been townish.
Fate's been super-town too.
We claimed masons.
1+1 = 2
Look into your heart and my posting and Amrun's posting.
Then vote Amrun.

And yeah I agree Tajo sounds like he believes himself.
Attacking masons is like one of the BALLS QUOTIENT TO 11 plays scum practically never do.

[Llamarble]

Fair enough I guess.
Still I think he's a lot more likely to be town than Regfan or Amrun.

[Llamarble]

Reg, who are Amrun's likeliest buddies?

[Llamarble]

<3<3 Wheee!

[Llamarble]

Huh, I don't see in Farside's posting anything making it obvious that Regfan is going to be her target.
Which means Regfan knows he was blocked based on an actual night action failure.
ALSO
Regfanscum knows there's a doctor or similar in the setup because something has to have caused the D1 killfailure.
So unless he submitted an additional action or had information about Farside's target choice,
HE WOULDN'T KNOW IF A ROLEBLOCK OR A DOC CAUSED KILL FAILURE.
And as scum he (very likely) DIES if he claims getting blocked and Farside didn't actually do it.
So he's a lot more likely to wait for Farside to claim target and let that player get lynched ezmode if they're not scum.
So yeah basically Regfan claiming he was roleblocked as scum before Farside says anything is a fairly unlikely play.

REDUCTIO AD MILD ABSURDUM

Regfan is town unless something kinda weird happened and shouldn't be lynched today.

Mod can scum submit a kill and an additional action this game?

Now to figure out who scum is.

[Llamarble]

Did you suggest you might be blocking him?
If that's true then what I said is a lot more iffy; if he's scum and knows you blocked him he definitely makes sure to claim it before you get a chance to.

[Llamarble]

Amrun, if you're town, catch up tonight and be ready.

Hmph. What a weird thing to say in twilight.

I still think Ythill is town though?

AGOTI could be Amrun'sbuddy.

Still reading.

[Llamarble]

That post Regfan quoted makes the Regfan-is-town deduction safer.

I do not think massclaim is a good idea right now, but if the doctor-thing has two living protects coming out and making some conftowns is probably good.

Also teehee, I have played in a roleblocker vs. doc + tracker game.
The roleblocker actually is worse than a goon imo because they nearly double the effectiveness of the tracker.

[Llamarble]

I'm not at MEGA BLOODLUST yet, but DGB has all kinds of associative tells with Amrun.
Definitely got a feeling yesterday she was trying hard to make other things happen.
VOTE: DGB

Also considering the awesome power of scum janitor, I feel like scum would've made a fairly concerted effort to keep Amrun alive.

[Llamarble]

Regfan is town.

I could vote for Amrun.

4 hours later without evidence of pondering in between:

Fate, I think Amrun is town.

Llamarble isn't super-impressing me as town. But he's not super-scummy either.

That fence is ripping through my pants.

DGB, what happened there?

Also DGB's play fits into the make townlynches happen but STAY OFF of the actual townlynch that is happening and trying to keep buddies from getting lynched model of scumplay. Which was pretty much her advice on good scumplay in our Whiteflag QT.

There's also run of posts D2 where she basically goes "LET'S TRY AND LYNCH ANYBODY BUT AMRUN."

YEPYEPYEP

[Llamarble]

1shot vig isn't a dumb claim for scum at all; it's a 'look at me I can prove my role' claim that often delays a scum's lynch by a day. Your thoughts on this matter are jarringly different from mine...
Also did you just claim scum with daytalk?

[Llamarble]

This reminds me a lot of how you talked about the Fate wagon early on.
Dubious meta-ey stuff.
Can you give me a you-town-doing-this example?

[Llamarble]

Haha. 3am derp whee.
I think as scum I and most other people usually trust buddies to fakeclaim things that make sense.
I may end up on Zoraster wagon anyway though.
I'll look at this later today.

[Llamarble]

Honestly I'm already feeling better enough about Regfan that I'd like him to at least have a chance of catching the NK.
He can just say X did Y tomorrow regardless which will work toward confirming while potentially catching scum.

[Llamarble]

UNVOTE:
I want to look at Zoro more.
Elli is right about his bahish post.

[Llamarble]

Yep confirmed alignment.
And for obvious reasons won't go into whether recruitment is going on or not.

[Llamarble]

Reading Zoro slot again now.

[Llamarble]

I find myself strongly desiring to hammer.
Scum don't often ragh ragh at random non-topical townies like Amrun did at Para D2.
And both are individually scummy though Para dropped a couple of things that bother me a bit .
And I am actually pretty convinced DGBslot is town now.
And I'm caffeinated, which increases the odds I'm right by 30% or so.
Remaining scum is probably AGOTI on a Zoro scumflip.

[Llamarble]

Yeah I want this to happen no matter what, so catch ups can happen tomorrow I guess.
VOTE: Zoraster

[Llamarble]

Yeah, fairly sure he's flipping scum. Still think Porochaz or Agoti is likely partner with an outside chance of it being Mastin or Spring, although I had town-reads on their predecessors their complete lack of content is worrying.

Llarmable, Fate, Farside, Elibereth and Shafted are sure-fire town and VP makes me feel a lot better about DBGs slot and am leaning town on it again.

This post is awesomely along the same lines as my thoughts.

[Llamarble]

...Wow.
I assume Flash ruleset guarantees that scum at least _have_ a kill.
Lots of us get some credit for Zoro, hehe.
I think AGOTI is the only player on Ghostlynch but neither scumlynch.
And Porochaz wasn't on either scumlynch either.
Oh well I want to look at lots of things again. Ythill slot I want to revisit.

VOTE: A Girl On The Internet

[Llamarble]

VOTE: VPB
Reread DGB and whatever gave me town thoughts wasn't really there.
I think this one ends it.

[Llamarble]

Dude, if I'm scum I just bussed 2 buddies in a row AFTER getting a role action on me that made me long term lynchbait.

[Llamarble]

Fate and I aren't actually masons at all.
He just read me strongly as town and gambited to make me not get lynched.
I confirmed because I was (and am) completely convinced he was town.
And then we lynched 2 scum in a row, so I think that was JUSTIFIED AND AWESOME.

[Llamarble]

So yeah, don't go all stupid and LAL when our lies directly caused 2 scumlynches in a row.

[Llamarble]

Oh and the precedent for this is Dilemma mafia, except in that game I didn't confirm masonry.
But that game is why I understood what Fate was up to and played along.

[Llamarble]

Downhill?
I helped make scum die D2 and D3.
This has been a pretty good game for me all told.

[Llamarble]

Llamarble

Hasn't been very good.

I would like to see some of your past games.

What is with you people.
D2 I helped us lynch Amrun instead of say Tajo, and D2 I helped us lynch Zoro instead of DGB.
Both times several lynches were possible and I helped us get to the right one.
I also managed not to get mislynched D2 after being roleblocked on a nokill night.
In what way has my play been 'not very good?'
Certainly I think I've outclassed you, Mr. "Zoro is making me not want to lynch him"

Springlullaby slot works barely-discussed-cause-he's-thought-of-as-town-and-we-dun-wanna-break-it associatively with dead scums, but Ythill felt kinda town.

Will investigate more later.

My sister is in town this week, which has reduced my access some.

[Llamarble]

Mastin could be scum.
I need to go check association with Amrun/Zora slots.

[Llamarble]

Okay, that took 2 seconds.
VOTE: Mastin

[Llamarble]

There are still a lot of kills unaccounted for.
And 3 scum + a traitor = a lot of scum.

I will be ENORMOUSLY amused if Fate turns out to be a traitor and protected me thinking I was scum.
But I also find that very unlikely.

[Llamarble]

It's been awhile since I was last only alive in one game.
VP, the only reason I was run up in the first place was the roleblock. There have now been 2 other nokills, so clearly something else has been at work.
I've made 2 scum die who I probably could have made not die.
You haven't made any specific complaints about my posting
What do you want me to respond to?

[Llamarble]

I would think that having confirmably lied about my role would give me HEIGHTENED chances of endgame survival???

[Llamarble]

Which it obviously would be unless I was scum with Fate.
And if I was scum with Fate that would put me in one-flipping-REAMS-other territory. Also would mean 10v4, which would require like a zillion more town PRs.
Even vaguely considering that a possibility is dumb.

[Llamarble]

certainly are concerned with pointing out how impossible you think it is for you to be scum.

I'm saying that arguing fakeclaiming mason IMPROVES long term survivability is outright stupid, or at least very wrong.
I'm also not scum and would have to have bussed all my buddies in a row, but yeah.

Mastin hasn't just been posting in other games, he's been posting A LOT in other games.
And he replaced into this one.
So he's going to die and this game will probably end and happy rainbows and I get to be pleased about awesome gambit turning point of game that prevented my lynch and killed scums instead.

[Llamarble]

The 'real' VP Baltar once was about to get killed by the cylons, but then seduced all of their women at the same time instead.

I think his name performs well in duel of sexiness.

VP out of curiousity do you remember me as Llamagod? I was the posting head of that hydra.

[Llamarble]

Nope, Zach's Mini 1105.
I think I prefer no duck, but it depends on the aesthetic you're going for.

[Llamarble]

I find 'forgetting completely' about a game a hard thing to believe.

[Llamarble]

Hrmph, Tajoslot was on both scumlynches. Less happy now.

[Llamarble]

Farside & Reg are town unless SERIOUS additional town power gets claimed.
Explain your thought process on AGOTI
I don't think Mastin's trying very hard.
That 'lets lynch these 5 people who aren't me several of which are clearly town' plan is very 'what is the remote possible way I can win from this situation.'

Poro's clear unless intentional nokill happened. Which I am ruling out a lot less than normal.

[Llamarble]

Also Mastin being gone forever provides an explanation for last night's nokill.

Only thing making me uncomfortable is replace in-> hammer scumbuddy, but then again he didn't list Zoro as someone he thought was scum and Zorolynch was inevitable.

CONFIRM VOTE: MASTIN

[Llamarble]

Gah, why does Poro have to be role-cleared-kind-of...
It's hard to find somebody who doesn't make me think they'll flip town.

[Llamarble]

Agoti lynch isn't awful considering she was one of the only people not on either scumwagon.

[Llamarble]

Huh, I thought Fate was bulletproof.
But yeah negative track result on Farside and Farside block on Baltar narrow things down awesomely.
Shouldn't we be lynching Mastin?
VOTE: Mastin

I guess Spring Poro or Shaft are the other reasonable possibilities.

[Llamarble]

9 of us remain. Reg/Farside/Baltar are now virtually confirmed town unless we lynch a scum and the game fails to end.
I'm good with massclaim I suppose. Certainly it increases our chances of winning fast.
I'm a VT.
Popcorn -> Mastin.

[Llamarble]

Well if Mastin is about to 1v1 Regfan then awesome GG happydance.
I'll actually read later.

[Llamarble]

4 scum is extremely extremely unlikely unless we have several more strong town PRs.
4v10 is not remotely fair to town. 3V11 isn't massively different from 3v10.
Janitor is also unusual/powerful enough to easily make up for an extra town player in the game.
So VPB is conftown.

Actually, we may be able to just flat out guarantee a town win here since Farside and Regfan can both confirm a townie per NK.
Them + VPB + another PR who needs to claim make 4 conftowns now.
We lynch someone, then scum NK someone but we get another conftown -> 4 conftowns & 3 non conftowns.
And after that we have lynches enough to kill all the nonconfirmed towns.
If scum try to nokill to make an even number, we keep lynching nonconfirmed towns and create a majority of conftowns that way.
If scum ever kill anyone they create more conftowns than they can deal with.

So yes, we can simply outright win this game by doing everything openly from now on.
Only possible way to lose is if our PRs flake and don't submit role actions or we no lynch because we're retarded or the setup is RIDICULOUS.

ERGO MASSCLAIM PLEASE.

MASTIN YOU'RE UP.

[Llamarble]

zzzzz
This game is going really slowly for a situation where nobody actually has to think anymore for town to win.
Lets just claim our roles, make sure it's a guaranteed win, and then start lynching.
Heck, we can lynch me first, though that makes me delay my victory-gratification so I'd rather lynch scum first.
Let's do POPCORN STYLE LYNCHES among the nonconfirmeds. That sounds pretty fun.

[Llamarble]

Because we are guaranteed to win. This game is over. Nothing matters except getting everyone's claims and lynching people.

[Llamarble]

Well and making sure Farside claims her action before each night and then performs that action to ensure each death makes a conftownie.

[Llamarble]

4 scum means (as of game-start) 3 mislynches loses.
That means to win we have to lynch correctly 2/3 of the time when the odds of correctly lynching are closer to 1/3.
We would need ridiculous town power to deal with that situation.

So basically there are 3 scum.
A kill occurred last night while VPB was roleblocked.
Therefore VPB did not submit the kill and is not the last scum.
Therefore VPB is conftown.

Thinking Regfan is scum is stupid unless we get additional claimed power sufficient for the setup to make sense without him a tracker.
Same goes for Farside.
And it is a safe assumption that town has another power role, so if only one more person claims something we can clear them as town too.

[Llamarble]

Yay for a harder form of conftown.

[Llamarble]

I mean, this game is solved and won.
It's not actually debatable at this point, just a matter of helping people understand why the game is over.
I am sufficiently confident we win that I'm willing to be the first non-conftown lynched so long as people actually follow the winning plan.

[Llamarble]

But yeah it's probably Mastin or Elli. Outside chance of Spring/Poro. One of those 4 will be cleared off of massclaim.
Unless VPB is the doctor, but that still probably is okay as Farside would be guaranteed 2 confirms before dying, which is still a forced win.

[Llamarble]

Our plan does not let Mastin off the hook. He (like all other possible scum) will either die or get confirmed as town eventually.

[Llamarble]

I mean the plan also does not let me off the hook.
Do you understand that town can't actually lose right now?

[Llamarble]

So we have Tracker + white mage + roleblocker vs Janitor + goon + ?
Sounds about right to me. I'm still pretty much entirely convinced there are 3 scum.
I've played tracker + doctor + Masons vs roleblocker + goons, which about lines up with this.
So yeah we stick to plan autowin.

Mastin trying to push the 'there are 4 scum' angle makes a lot of sense if he's scum as people buying into that silliness is the only possible way for scum to win.
Elli can keep both Farside & Regfan protected for a bit, which means we'll find the last scum quite fast.

Oh and by the way following our plan is still quite good against 2 scum, since even if there are 2 scum tracker/RB clears substantially lower odds of being scum.

[Llamarble]

Like Tracker, roleblocker, and white mage each only have 1 or 2 targets that are super strong each night.
We don't have killing power, and we don't the super strong investigative roles (cop or masons).
So yeah I am very convinced that this setup makes most sense with 3 scum.

[Llamarble]

I don't really have a problem with getting lynched; my 'only lynched one time on MS and was confirmed town' is already broken anyway.
But you do have to promise me lynch popcorn , and we do want to coordinate night actions before lynching.

[Llamarble]

Shafted, I may have benefited a lot from Fate protecting me, but there were two lynches after I got into trouble and in both cases there were candidates floating around and I latched onto the scum one for the lynch.
Zoro I guess was more unanimous, but Amrun I definitely get some credit for. You really think I'd bus a cool role like Janitor piloted by a good player like Amrun when I was kind of dead scum walking?
Scum just don't make plans that elaborate.
Also I have townmeta (Dilemma mafia) of Fate bailing me out and me being happy to alliance with him / let him defend me.
But yeah, it really doesn't matter that much at this point. Let's just lynch Mastin or me or Shafted and move forward, making sure actions are coordinated before night.

[Llamarble]

CONFIRMED TOWN (barring tremendous weirdness):
Regfan
Farside
Elli
VPB

Probtown:
Poro
Spring

Lynch pool
Llamarble
Mastin
Shafted

PROPOSAL:
Lynch mastin
Roleblock me
Track Shafted
Protect Regfan

If someone dies and Shafted stays put, it's either Poro or Spring.
If noone dies it's Poro Spring me or Shafted and we lynch me or Shafted etc.

Win is forced.

Can we agree to do this?

[Llamarble]

Farside, there aren't 4 scum. There just aren't. And even if there are VPB is still twice as likely to be town as everybody else.

Spring is merely probtown because other things like scum choosing to nokill are POSSIBLE.
But yeah he doesn't die until we're through with the people in the lynch pool.

[Llamarble]

Farside, there aren't 4 scum. There just aren't.

I'm serious. 4 scum wouldn't make sense or be any kind of fair.
We would have to lynch correctly 2/3 of the time to win and have no power role as strong as cop/masons/vig.

Since you can't die tonight due to Elli, you don't have to announce.
But you do have to block in the pool of possible scum.
DO NOT BLOCK VPB. THAT WOULD BE STUPID.
You are correct that Spring is probtown. I am 70% sure the remaining scum is Mastin or Shafted, and most of the remaining possibility is Poro.
VPB is harder confirmed town than Spring though.

[Llamarble]

THERE ARE NOT 2 MAFIA REMAINING.

I am not going to comment anymore and will trust Regfan to keep us away from INTOLERABLY DUMB things like roleblocking VPB tonight.

I'll hammer any of myself, Shafted, Porochaz, Springlullaby, or Mastin as soon as it is possible.
This game is over and you're kind of messing up the feeling of awesome I got from lynching 2 scums -> solving the game instead of getting mislynched D2.

[Llamarble]

Farside, I don't think Poro or Spring are scum.
They have a better chance of being scum than VP though.
I am quite confident scum is Mastin or Shafted.

[Llamarble]

I don't see why we need to wait to hear from Mastin before lynching him.
But whatever

[Llamarble]

Fate was a claimed mason N2.
Dee Dee.

[Llamarble]

Oh I actually misread. And apparently argued I was scum. Ha.
So yeah, N1 Amrunscum presumably shot at and failed to kill Ythill.
And N2 scum shot at and failed to kill Fate.
And N4 scum Derped and killed Fate when they needed to kill the doctor?

I do not think Mastinscum derping is very hard to swallow.
Actually scum making 2 attempts to kill Ythill in a row makes a lot of sense too since they'd have no idea the protector was a white mage and Ythill seemed powery.

[Llamarble]

AMIGO
As in Ythill softclaimed or something at some point so scum were trying to get rid of him, and scum wouldn't know protections last 2 days, making them more likely to target the same player twice.
Argh I wasn't going to let myself think about this game.
CAN WE JUST FINISH MASTIN OFF ALREADY I WANT TO WIN 2 GAMES IN 24 HOURS.

[Llamarble]

WHEEEEE!
I am so pleased with myself for not getting lynched this game and helping make all the scumwagons go. Especially the Amrun and Mastin ones.
This game was awesome play from town all over.
<3 to Fate especially for Masongambitz!
Should wiki that gambit if it's not already there.

Ninja + Janitor is a cool combo since they back each other up in such a way as to reduce swinginess.

[Llamarble]

I wonder if we'd have lynched him today if he'd just posted everything from his mastinscum QT in thread Fate style...