Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!

[Mirth]

Vote: Kinetic

Because I don't see a point in voting for the mod, even if it's random.

[Mirth]

2 questions and a thought:

Curiouskarmadog (do you have any preffered short version of your name?) why did you change your vote to deepsouth?

Mgm, why Curiouskarmadog?

Thought: If the SK kills either every 7 days or every lynch, whichever comes first, then it would be in our best interest to try and time the lynchs to intervals of seven days based on when the serial killer strikes. So in order to minimize SK kills, if there is a lynch in the next week, that should happen about a few hours before Aug 19, 10 am EST. (I'm also guessing it will take 6 to lynch now, even though the first post doesn't say it)

[Mirth]

MGM you mentioned the dangers of dogs before the kill was announced. So do you have any after kill explanation for your vote?

[Mirth]

MGM you mentioned the dangers of dogs before the kill was announced. So do you have any after kill explanation for your vote?

I mentioned him as a possible suspect and since the first suspect I mentioned died, I had an unused vote lying around. I might as well place it somewhere and since my hunch on d3sisted was correct, I might as well continue to trust my hunches for the time being.

Unvote: Kinetic

Vote: MGM

We are on page two. None of us have said very much yet, and all the votes up to this point have been random. We are all possible suspects. Why does he merit special attention here? He had a whole two posts when you first mentioned him as a "possible suspect." Your vote on d3sisted seemed to be a joking random vote which just happened to get lucky, as he hadn't posted anything when you voted for him. Then he voted for you. I'm weary of "hunches" that are formed without anything to back them up.

[Mirth]

EBWOP^

Vote: MGM

[Mirth]

First, MGM you said that your "hunch on d3sisted was correct." You did not mention the SK in your replies to my questions (and I didn't ask about the SK, either.)

Second, Stewie, I completely disagree with this:

The only possible answer is that the chose randomly/arbitrarily, since he has no other information to base his vote on (or if he does, he's not gonna tell you). Can you really think of any other method of picking who to vote between two people who haven't posted yet?

There is always the possibility that he is mafia and one of them could be his partner, so no, that is not the only possible answer.

[Mirth]

But it is the only answer he's gonna give you. Or did you expect him to admit to being a scumbag?

I didn't expect any other answer from DeepSouth. Stewie, on the other hand, who the question didn't concern, shouldn't automatically have assumed an innocent motive (how is he to know if the motive is innocent or not).

[Mirth]

Yet we don't necessarily have to lynch by that particular deadline. We just need to make sure that our lynches occur in incrimants of seven days while the SK is alive (such that maybe, if we don't have a lead, or a suspect, let him have his second kill, and lynch 7 days after that. Speeding up a lynch for the sake of lynching before the SK strikes might hurt unless we have something to go on, which right now, we don't).

If we're going into whether the SK posted before the kill or not, the following people posted pre-kill (in order of first post):

Kinetic
CKD
MGM
Mirth
D3sisted (obviously not the SK, being dead)
Heatherlou
Stewie

That's 7 out of 12. Or rather 6 out of 11, as we know that D3sisted was not the SK. Statistically speaking, it it more likely that the SK posted before the hit, as 6 of us had posted as opposed to 5.

On the possibility of the SK just realizing that the game has started, there is a two day lag between Pooky starting the thread and announcing that we can start killing each other. This strikes me as possibly significant, maybe as a window of confirmation oppurtunity. But I know that my pm didn't ask for a confirmation, so I'm going to assume the others didn't either. So I think I'll stop metagaming now.

[Mirth]

That is perfectly true. One thing is certain though, the SK request was sent *after* Aug 11 8:01 am. There is about a one day window of oppurtunity there.

[Mirth]

What do you mean by that MGM?

[Mirth]

If it was in the first reply to the Mod, the first reply still would have had to have taken place after the Mod's second post. Which still doesnt say anything.

Just out of curiousity, to try to get conversation going, who do you guys think is a bigger thread, the mafia or the SK?

[Mirth]

I'll comment on your vote on MGM since that's where my vote happens to be at the moment. First of all, I really don't like MGM's post about his "hunch" about D3sisted. (See post 37 I think) or his way of playing off the answer to my question about that. I also wonder why MGM thinks the mafia are more of a threat (I can't type sometimes) because, if I understand the rules correctly, they can't kill except through manipulating the town vote. (I asked the question to see if anybody would say that, though, I suppose, they might be harder to find as a group since there are now three of them left, and their win condition at the moment is surviving with 3 townies). I also don't like reasonless unvotes.

But I don't know if I agree with you targeting MGM as the SK or trying to push a vote. As I said before, as this game is nightless and the mafia can't kill of their own volition, our only voting constraint is to minimize SK kills, but we don't necessarily have to lynch once a week. Just make sure that lynching takes place on specific days. Id rather be sure of something than mislynch, especially in this type of set up. If we get enough for a reasonable lynch, good. If not, we shouldn't push it.

[Mirth]

First, CKD, what prompted your vote on MGM just now? Most of the stuff you pointed out has been around for a bit, and yet you didn't vote for him.

Second, MGM, quantity of posts does not necessarily mean that theres more of a chance to act scummy. Somebody could act very very very scummy with just one or two posts (like an early attempt at a hammer or the like). I don't see how this is a point in your favor.

[Mirth]

Don't you think a townie would get restless with an impending deadline?

Maybe. Should we consider this a claim? (I don't like unneccessary claims or what could be construed as breadcrumbed claims. Sometimes they're true, sometimes they aren't, I just don't see a point in them.) I don't really see how not having a lynch before the SK's deadline is a bad thing (as long as when we do decide to lynch it falls on a deadline) in a nightless game. Please explain it to me? Why hurry?

Also, I understood your point just fine, but probably didn't do a good job of voicing my objection to it. Sure you posted more and theres more for us to dig through, but quantity and quality are two different things. As in I get that more material = more fodder, but maybe there is something innately suspicious in the material that has nothing to do with how much you posted, but rather with a specific post and its contents.

What I don't like: Kinetic also voicing his suspicion of MGM. I called MGM out on the hunch thing 2 pages back. Nobody else commented. Then Hazel voted. And CKD and Kinetic seem to take this as a cue that its okay to voice their suspicions. MGM hasn't done anything particularly earth shattering (or worthy of note even) in the last page. Granted, I still think he is the most suspicious person here, of people whove actually said something. But that can obviously change.

[Mirth]

Things I don't like:

Not having a lynch actually starts to sound like a good option. We don't have enough information to make well thought out decision despite my efforts which has too much chance of resulting in a mislynch.

I mentioned that we dont necessarily need a lynch to go with every kill multiple times before this. I guess I'm feeling frustrated that all of my points have to be repeated multiple times before anyone comments on them. Or maybe I'm not too happy with your sudden unprescedented change of opinion. I'll decide this once I've heard more.

I agree on the last part. But since we do have some people posting, we should focus on them. I see no reason not to lynch mgn, if he is vanilla we have not lost the most important player, and if he is mafia it's a big step forward.

Contrary to chess games, townies are not expendible. I understand that you may have this confused with a newbie game (as you seem to say in Post 112, though why on earth you'd think a newbie game is nightless and has a serial killer, is beyond me), but still, townies are not expendible. Not even in newbie games. There, one mislynched townie = LYLO, especially since power roles are not guarenteed to exist. So I sort of fail to see why its okay to lynch townies in any game. I might be willing to let this comment slide, and I understand you already answered, but I still don't like it.

[Mirth]

Kinetic, why the sudden switch in opinion? Also, why are you suspicious of CKD?

[Mirth]

Hmmm...I'm not sure what to make of you claiming to mix up games. While on one hand it seems perfectly possible to get confused, it seems to me that you might be playing up that factor just a tad. Will have to watch and see.

[Mirth]

Raffles, why vote and then unvote?

[Mirth]

Thoughts on what? (if you mean lynching, scroll up for my opinion.) I've commented on all that I feel needs commenting on, honestly. I'm just more or less waiting for more people to join in on the discussion, because it doesn't seem to me that very many people are actively playing.

[Mirth]

so you are not holding back any information?

No, Raffles, Im stating my opinion as things are going along. And now that we have a dead townie, I do have something to add:

What I don't like:

- At the beginning of the game, MGM mentioned that he didn't like misspellings. Funny how the first two people dead have numerically spelled variations of certain words. This strikes me as being one of two things. MGM could actually be using the spelling thing as a random means of killing. Or someone picked up on MGM saying that and felt like setting them up. Which brings me to point 2.

- Kinetic's post. Kinetic mentions a set up, so I'm going to assume he means the reason I just mentioned up above. What I don't like is that he doesn't mention a reason. Also I'd like to know exactly why he thinks Hazzel is the best suspect.

- I'm not sure exactly what Heatherlou is trying to say with her last post. She doesn't include a point.

- The kill itself. M4yhem did two things before dying. First, he voted me on "gut feeling," and second he said that Hazzel "is almost certainly not the SK". I do not understand the SK's choice here, and here is why:

First of all, M4yhem has not been particularly active, but he is not the most inactive person in this thread either. So I'm going to rule out a kill based on inactivity. M4yhem second post is what interests me. He mentions that Hazzel is probably not the SK, and CKD agrees with him, and Raffles says he's inclined to believe that Hazzel isn't lying about the pm. Thus it seems to me that M4yhem discounted Hazzel as an SK suspect, which seems to be an interesting thing to note, since currently Hazzel and MGM are the only players with votes on them. I am not sure what this means in the long run, though.

Second, going back to the first kill, D3sisted, he only had one post where he voted MGM (he also mentioned M4yhem, so perhaps the SK took that as a possible hint on other scum). D3sisted's death left MGM as the most promising suspect, so what bothers me here is why the SK didn't kill MGM if the SK is also hunting mafia. Yes, the SK may be attempting to frame MGM, but I don't see how this is a very good plan. At the moment, I find MGM more suspicious as possible scum rather than serial killer (as it does seem a little too convienant that people are dying based on their names), and I'm pretty sure that there are other people not too thrilled with MGM's posting as evidenced by the vote count. And I just forgot what my point was going to be. It's 2:30 in the morning and my brain decided to shut down. I'll try to make sense of my rambling a little bit later, when I've gotten some sleep.

[Mirth]

Oh! I remembered my point. If MGM is scum, wouldn't it be better for the SK to have killed MGM instead for the very reason of being rather suspicious, thus throwing the town in a state of a bit more confusion and possibly buying himself a better oppurtunity at winning (ie have more kills with which to make sure that he does not end up alive with enugh mafia members to majority vote a lynch that could kill him). Then again, I suppose it doesn't particularly matter to the SK whom he kills, as long as it confuses the town, because either way his only objective would be to stay hidden. (Also long as he doesnt leave himself with just 3 or 2 mafia members alive at the end of the game, he would win.)

[Mirth]

At the moment, I find MGM more suspicious as possible scum rather than serial killer

'Scum' is the collective noun that describes all evil non-town roles. So I think you meant to say that "you found me [Mgm] suspicious as possible mafia, rather than serial killer."

Sorry, my brain isn't functioning this morning. (Maybe I should sleep). Yes. That is what I meant. I think you're more likely to be mafia than anything else.

I also don't realy understeand your vote on DeepFriedNinja. Sure, he hasn't posted, but it was the weekend, so that might be a reason for it. I don't really see how a lurker vote would help.

Kinetic, what do you mean two groups?

And now, off to the bus stop on no sleep. Weeee!

[Mirth]

You make an interesting point CKD, but could you explain why you think Kinetic would be more suspicious if MGM is mafia?

[Mirth]

Sigh. Lots of backlog. This is what I get for getting a decent amount of sleep for once. First I want to

Unvote: MGM

What I don't like about all the stuff I missed:

1. Kinetic, why are you associating me with CKD and HazzelQ. Once again, I would like to point out that my vote on MGM happened first, was ignored for 2 or so pages, and then Hazzel voted followed by CKD. Also I am not "pushing" as you say. Please note how a lot of my posts say that I'd rather be right about a lynch then fast about it. I do think MGM is possibly mafia, but that is my independent opinion.

2.

CKD. Stop harrassing Kinetic. If I do indeed end up dead, you'll find out I'm not scum with him.

Why should he, MGM? Yes your areguements are valid, but harrassing = more information = good.

3. Raffles, I nitpick stuff when I see stuff to nitpick. If I don't see anything worth nitpicking, I wait until I find something.

4. I'm not done yet. I have a doctor's appointment now. I didn't expect so much backlog. I'll finish reading everything after post 175 when I get back. I'll also post a better analysis of the stuff that was said before then and possibly do a complete read through with individual analysis. Right now I really have to go.

[Mirth]

Sorry, when I got back from the doctors yesterday, I collapsed. Here is the massively long post I promised. This is more for my reference though. Helps me keep a readthrough straight if i take notes. My comments in parathesis

Post analysis starting from the beginning:
--
0. Pooky announces rules.
1. Pooky says we can start.
2. Kinetic joke votes Pooky.
3. CKD says he hates random votes, votes Heatherlou by reason of evil exgirlfriend.
4. MGM blasts improper spelling, votes D3sisted, says he's keeping an eye on Ninja
5. CKD joke posts something about Ninja's name
6. I vote Kinetic because I don't see a point in voting the mod.
7. D3sisted votes MGM for voting him and not M4yhem
8. MGM adds to the joke reason
9. Heatherlou votes Stewie. something about family guy?
10. Stewie votes Ninja.
11. MGM mentions that dogs are dangerous and to watch out for CKD
12. Pooky announced the SK's first victim, D3sisted
13. CKD says he hoped the SK would have waited longer. Wants to know about page 1 timing. Says he thinks SK probably keeping quiet. unvotes Heather, votes DeepSouth for pressure.

(Well I have to say that page 1 timing = pretty much the only way to go for the SK. Pointless question that started all the pointless discussion)

14. Kinetic says he half expected it. 7 day deadline to lynch before he kills. Thinks killing mafia bad for SK.

(don't really get this)

15. MGM votes CKD
16. CKD says he thought SK could only lynch if 7 days *and* lynch occured
17. CKD asks MGM why vote for him.
18. Kinetic says SK can kill in 7 days or lynch.
19. CKD says he gets it now. Thinks SK just realized game started, but request might have been in modbox for a while.
20. CKD wants to hear from everyone.
21. I ask CKD why DeepSouth. I ask MGM why CKD. I say that we'd probably better time our lynches on 7 day intervals.
22. MGM says he explained by CKD. Quotes post 11. Says he voted because there was no point in voting for the dead.
23. Kinetic mentions lynch deadline. Says he thinks SK posted already. Votes MGM

(Hmm I missed this vote before. Good thing I'm doing a read through).

24. Stewie says he doesn't understand Kinetic's post about a mafia kill blowing up in SK's face.
25. MGM asks Kinetic why he thinks the SK posted already.
26. I mention that MGM's reason for CKD came pre-kill and ask if he has any post-kill reasons for voting CKD.
27. Kinetic (answers Stewie) says SK has better odds if he killed townie (Why?). (Answers MGM) says its more of a hunch that SK posted before kill.

(possibly breadcrumbing?)

28. MGM (answers me) says he mentioned CKD as possible suspect, his hunch on d3sisted was right, so will continue to trust hunches. (answers Kinetic) thinks that its better for SK to kill mafia off first.
29. MGM says he has another hunch (response to Kinetic) that SK didn't post and wants to look like he wasn't there.
30. I unvote Kinetic, vote MGM. I don't like MGM's talk of CKD as a possible suspect because of how early we are in the game and because it seems like the d3sisted vote was a joke vote that just got lucky. I don't like hunches without anything to back them up.
31. I correct my vote tags.
32. DeepSouth apologized for being late, FOSs CKD for saying SK has not posted yet, thinks CKD might be the SK. Votes Raffles for not havig posted.

(Again, I missed this. Good thing I'm doing a read through. CKD didn't say that. He just said he didn't know how long the request was in the Mod's box for. He didn't say anything about posting yet. Should have questioned this vote.)

33. Heather says she thinks SK possibly hasn't posted yet, saw game started and sent in kill. Didn't post so as not to be questioned or pressured. Unvotes Stewie, votes M4yhem. (Assuming pressure to talk vote)
34. CKD explains vote on DeepSouth as lurker pressure, first one on list.

(So was DeepSouth's suspicion on CKD of the OMGUS variety? Or something else?)

35. CKD says DeepSouth's vote is silly, asks if he thinks the SK has posted and how often, and why Raffles and not Hazzel?

(This bothers me now, a bit, as CKD didn't correct DeepSouth's mistake in attribution. Asks a kind of dumb question.)

36. Stewie says CKD's last question is silly, and it's obvious DeepSouth picked one arbitrarily.
37. MGM (answers me) says it was pretty clear that vote was random too. Didn't say vote was on a hunch. Hunch was about SK posting

(er...no. Not what was said.)

38: CKD says questions not for Stewie, why did he answer them.
39: MGM asks why he asked the question
40: KCD asks which question. Says questions are good for town (unprompted), finds it interesting that Stewie answered a question not directed at him. Wants to hear reason from DeepSouth. Unvotes DeepSouth for posting, Votes Hazzel for posting in other threads but not this one.

(Why the unvote? I should mention I'm not a fan of vote jumping. Maybe this sleep stuff is good, as I can actually sort of focus now.)

41. MGM clarifies, says its the one about picking Raffls over Hazzel.
42. CKD wants to know method of picking.
43. MGM asks CKD's method of picking people to pressure.
44. Stewie says the only possible answer is to pick randomly.
45. CKD tells MGM to read his posts for reason of why he chose votes.
46. CKD says Stewie didn't answer why he answered a question for DeepSouth. Says DeepSouth might not have been random, might have metagamed, grudge etc.
47. MGM says Raffles was also posting, might have posted here.
48. Steweie says that it was a strupid question. Doesn't know if the vote is random, says the rest is arbitrary. (don't get how this word applied to CKD's reasons, but okay.)
49. CKD says that Raffles said he's on vacation, but Hazzel is still posting elsewhere.
50. DeepSouth unvotes Raffles, says he picked first person he saw, unvotes since Raggles is on vacation. Says that as to the how many times the SK posted, asks how many times CKD posted. Adds a smilie face.

(What the heck is the smilie for?)

51. I mention that MGM stated that his "hunch on d3sisted was correct" and didn't mention the SK in his replies. I disagree with Stewie, because mafia partners could vote for each other and that's not random.
52. MGM says thats the only answer he'll give because admitting scumminess isn't going to happen.
53. M4yhem votes me out of randomness/gut feeling.
54. I say that I didn't expect any other answer from DeepSouth but that Stewie shouldn't assume innocent motives.
55. MGM says Stewie correctly pointed out a dead end question. No problem with answering it if theres only one answer they'll likely give. Says its like claiming where you can pretty much only claim town in this game.
56. CKD says there are several possible answers, wanted to see DeepSouths answers, but Stewie answered instead.
57: CKD unvotes Hazzel, asks for a modprod, since Hazzel apparently doesn't know about this game.
58: CKD wants more conversation.
59: Raffles says he hasn't been pmed about this game. going to read through.
60. Raffles says its silly to think SK is lurking the who game, and metagaming is kind of useless.
61. MGM asks CKD to name alternate answers.
62. CKD tells MGM to read post 46.
63. MGM says he missed that post, and that a grudge is a valid reason.
64. Stewie says that a grudge would be arbitrary

(Is that really the right use of that word?)

65. MGM says we should get a target by deadline or we lose a head start.
66. I say that we don't need to lynch by this particular deadline as long as we make sure to line up lynches before timed kills. And that a speedy lynch might not be good. I mention that 7 out of 12 players posted before the first kill, so its statisticaly more likely the SK posted, that there's a 2 days lag between the thread being made and Pooky starting the game.
67. CKD isnt sure whas significant about posting before or after the kill.
68. I agree but mention that there's a one day window of oppurtunity for the first kill (between Pooky's game start post and the kill)
69. CKD says it probably wouldn't help to try and figure out why D3sisted
70. Stewie asks DeepSouth about the "joke" in response to the question about the SK posting. Asks anyone who thinks the SK posted why they think so.
71. MGM says we should talk more to analyze posts.
72. Hazzel/Jeep test posts.
73. Jeep confirms it was a test post.
74. MGM asks for a vote to help beat the deadline.
75. I ask MGM what he means
76. Hazzel test posts.
77. CKD asks if the problem's fixed.
78. Hazzel posts and apology, explains problem, asks mod for role pm.
79. Hazzel says Jeep figured it out, says he can't start until a Mod pm with a role.
80. CKD asks for a prod on Ninja.
81. Raffles says the SK probably sent the kill as a role PM reply, it was probably random.
82. Heather says that it probably was random as the SK doesn't really care who dies. Mentions that its hard to find scum with strict deadline.
83. I say that even so, the kill would have teken place after the mod's second post, try to start conversation by asking who is a bigger threat SK or mafia.
84. Kinetic says SK
85. Raffles comments on my typos (there shall be a lot more) says SK definately and reducing the killing is good for the town.
86. MGM says mafia because they win sooner, get rid of mafia more time to find SK.
87. MGM responds to my post from a while back, wants a lynch before deadline.
88. Hazzel says he'll read the thread now and see if he agrees with MGM
89. Hazzel says he read it. Says doesnt matter when the SK sent in his kill. Thinks MGM is the SK. Votes MGM. Thinks MGM voted for D3sisted then killed him as coverup. Thinks lynch before deadling is good.
90. MGM unvotes CKD
91. Hazzel asks no reason?
92. MGM says there's a reason but doesn't want to share yet

(MGM are you willing to share yet?)

93. M4yhem asks if its metagaming to point out the Hazzel is probably not the SK because he has an alibi. Could be mafia though.
94. Raffles says its likely but theres no evidence. Will probably buy it though since he got his pm so late.
95. MGM says he finds it hard to belive that Raffles got his pm so late. When did he get it?
96. MGM responds to M4yhem that yes it wa metagaming, but not necessarily bad metagaming.
97. Hazzel asks for comments on MGM vote
98. CKD says the he truly does not think Hazzel knew the game was on.
99. I comment on Hazzel's vote since I'm voting MGM at this point. Say i don't like MGM's hunch on d3sisted or way of answering. Wonder why MGM thinks mafia is more of a threat. Don't like reasonless unvotes. But I don't like Hazzel targeting MGM as the SK or trying to push a vote. Since mafia cant kill, we don't necessarily have to lynch once a week just mae sure to to time lynches. If we get enough for a lynch good, if not, we shouldn't push it.
---

I am not done yet. Still have a little more than 100 posts to go. Need to get some stuff done. Will get back to this a bit later. Sorry its taking me so long. Real life and exhaustion are getting in the way.

[Mirth]

Gah Im really sorry I havent posted or finished reading. I have family visiting and I didn't expect that they would drive me absolutely insane. I'll be able to post late tomorrow evening, when they finally leave. Again, I'm really really sorry about this, because they're usually not this annoyingly clingy, and I didn't forsee this as a problem.

[Mirth]

Sorry for my silence, its been hectic around here for the past few days. Now I have peace and quiet. yay. A continuation of the pbp I started:

100: CKD votes MGM and lists reasons for scumminess.
a) d3sisted and MGM voting each other as example of mafia voting each other early on. admits this is a weak argument
b) random vs. hunch reasoning for vote on CKD
c)MGM saying the vote was random after the hunch post.
d) metagaming on Raffles and Hazzel (I don't really get how this is scummy, though)
e) trying to push a lynch
d) unvote without reason, not sharing reason
101: MGM says an explanation will help scum more. also mentions that he's made the most posts besides CKD easy to find scumminess.
102: I ask CKD why vote MGM just then, even if everything has been around for a while, and mention to MGM that lots of posts dont necessarily mean more of a chance to be scummy
103. Raffles says he didnt get a PM until 3 posts after starting. asks mgm to explain contridiction

(I want a clarification on this, if you don't mind, Raffles. 3 posts into the game or 3 posts after you posted here)

104. CKD answers that he did a reread after seeing two votes on MGM. decided MGM was scummy.

(Hmmm...I might be missin something here, but I don't remember Kinetic unvoting in my reread. So that would have meant that with CKD's vote, MGM was at 4 votes. Hmmm...)

105. MGM tells me to reread his post. That more posts = more material to work with.
106. Kinetic checks in says he's kist reading this and doesn't like what MGM is saying

(I don't like this post in retrospect. It's pointing fingers without giving a reason)

107. MGM states that he feels that in CKD's post (100) that the 3rd reason was the only valid one. Says
a) weak argument. people check back at who votes who later. (this, like CKD's post, is WIFOM)
b) (I don't really understand this point)
c) admits to contridiction and bad memory (not really an answer)
d) comment on metagaming how Raffles really shouldnt have been excluded from it. (I don't see why this is such a big deal)
e) mentions that townies get antsy with deadlines
f) points to post 101
108: MGM responds to Kinetic's post about Pooky checking pms and cites my post (66) that says half the people posted before and half after and it really doesnt say anything about the SK.
109. I ask MGM is the townie coment is a claim. explain my position about not having a lynch, because of the nightless nature of the game that its better to wait than mislynch. i also mention that i understand MGMs point about more posts but gave a poor explanation, but that i think more material doesnt neccessarily mean more fodder for suspision. I mention that I don't like Kinetics suspicion of MGM and that MGM hasn't done anything new.

(I missed Kinetic's original vote on MGM. I was under the impression that I was the first vote on MGM when I made this post. At this point Kinetic still has a vote on him.)

110: MGM says that I could consider the townie comment a claim if I want to since its true, meant to say restlessness isnt scummy. Wants to get past random voting and get more info. Says that not having a lynch might not be a bad idea after all at this point.
111. CKD agrees to my faulty comment on Kinetic, mentions probably unsurity about whether its better to vote or not as motive. Asks for prods to get the game going.
112. Hazzel accuses MGM of being the SK. Thinks this is a newbie game. Thinks killing the person who MGM voted for is a way of detracting suspicion.
113. Hazzel laughs at MGM's comment on CKD's metagaming between Hazzel and Raffles

(This is where Hazzel's approach starts bothering me a little. Very aggressive. Not sure if its warranted)

114. Hazzel calls meaningless discussion on the when the SK first posted thing.
115. Hazzel says MGM claims townie and attempts to abandon plans to quicklynch because of the focus on him.

(it wouldn't have been a quicklynch. needed to have pointed that out.)

116. Hazzel agrees with CKD that we need more posting and says he sees no reason not to lynch MGM, because if MGM is a vanilla townie, we don't lose anyone important.
117. CKD called Hazzel out on the possible lynching of a townie, asks who Hazzel thinks is important, says he doesnt want to lynch a townie, says Hazzel's post seems scummy like an attempt to cover butt either way.
118. CKD berates quotes.
119. Hazzel says he isnt sure of MGM's alignment, doesnt see CKD's point, says he doesnt know any more than CKD.
120. Hazzel berates quotes.
121. Hazzel says he mixed up the setting and townies are just as important.
122. MGM says hes not trying for a quick lynch, but wanted a lynch predeadlin. Abandoning the idea due to lack of active players. Says claim has no weight as there is nothing else to claim
123. Stewie unvotes and votes Hazzel. says Hazzel's argument of losing an unimportant townie applies to lynching Hazzel s well. asks for condensed posts.

(don't really like the reason here.)

124. I post a list of things I don't like. Mention MGM's change of opinion. Not sure if i'm unhappy with it because of people ignoring that I've said this multiple times or the actual change. Mention Hazzel's post about lynching townies and that townies are not expendible, even in newbie games, which Hazzel seems to be confusing it with.

(I shouldn't have let Hazzel's post slide this easily)

125. Hazzel says he'll post as much as he wants, tells Stewie to go back and read his posts about expendible townies and the explanation to it.
126. Hazzel agrees that I have a right not to like his post about lynching townies, and that he still thinks its okay to kill townies because we can afford it, and we should try and lynch the scummiest person here. Says "take me out if you need to"

(I don't like the part about "take me out if you need to" like a bluff of whether or not to lynch. I also want to comment I was in a game where the least scummy person actually ended up being mafia, so I'm not too hasty.)

127. Kinetic says Hazzel and CKD are starting to look like scum. Unvotes MGM votes Hazzel.

(Here is the unvote to the vote I originally missed.)

128. I ask Kinetic why the opinion switch, why suspicious of CKD
129. Kinetic says his opinion wasnt a sudden switch and that his original MGM vote was a hunch and he left it on for longer than necessary to get more reads. Saw CKD and Hazzel picking on the smallest things (this is true, I think) doesn't think both CKD and Hazzel are scum, but one might be, thought Hazzel was worse.

(Then why double team? One latching on to the other?)

130. Hazzel says heis not moving his vote. Asks if he's at 3 votes and needs to role claim.

(This is the third time he confused games. This is starting to bother me, as its really not that hard to keep them straight.)

131. Hazzel apologizes for mixing up posts, says he doesn't have to say anything, to look at his other posts.
132. I comment on the mixing up games thing, that I'll have to wait and see as to whether or not I believe it.
133. Raffles asks MGM about the hunch/random thing. Says it looks like a story change in forgetting a cover up. Says to Hazzel that he doesnt see a deadline pressure so much as a need for lynching the SK soon.

(cover up for what?)

134. MGM says the name was random because "someone with a name like that had to be scum" no posts, nothing to base it on.
135. Hazzel laughs at something MGM said.
136. Ninja apologizes for not posting, promises to post tomorrow.
137: MGM says that we should consider the kill-period night and says that we are on a weeklong deadline

(I have to say I'm more inclined to agree with Raffles)

138: Raffles says that he thinks its better to try and eliminate the SK accurately and not inflict accidental damage on the town. Votes MGM

(This is vote number 4.)

139. Raffles unvotes MGM

(Did he realize this was vote number 4?)

140. MGM says he's not advocating collateral damage and that he changed his opinion about the need to lynch.
141. I ask Raffles why the vote and unvote
142. Raffles says the vote assumption wasnt unreasonable, but the vote was too rushed. wants to hear MGM. Asks MGM if he's not for a definate lynch before deadline anymore.
143. MGM says thats right.
144. Raffles asks me for my thoughts, says I've been on the sideline.

(actually I hadn't)

145. I ask thoughts on what. Say that I commented on everything I felt needed commenting on. Waiting for more people to actually say something.
146. CKD says that he asked for prods and that we don't have time to wait because of the SK deadline.
147. Raffles asks me if I'm holding back any information
148. Raffles corrects his comment, says he meant comments or opinions.
149. Heather says that MGM is acting scummy, and that the Hazzel/MGM discussion and MGM changing his vote about the lynch looks scummy. (I don't understand the rest of this post)

Going to check my other games and then finishing this up.

[Mirth]

Part three of my pbp

150. Pooky posts the M4yhem was killed.
151. Kinetic says he thinks the SK is trying to frame MGM, suspects Hazzel, doesn't give reason though.

(he hasn't given very many reasons for anything, actually)

152. MGM tells Heather that he already explained his change of opinion.
153. Heather cites MGM failing to answer my question about why we should hurry and have a lynch by saying not having one is a good idea. Heather says the answer to Hazzel's question looks valid, but not the initial switch.
154. I tell Raffles that I'm stating what I think as we go along, say I have something to add to the recent townie death. I mention that MGM mentioned he didn't like misspellings and that this could possibly be either a random way of picking people to kill or someone picking up on MGM saying that and trying to set him up, like Kinetic said, but Kinetics post doesnt mention a reason. I ask why Hazzel. Not sure of what Heather ment in the last post. Don't understand the SK's choice of M4yh3 since all he did was vote me, and say he didn't think Hazzel was the SK. I don't think its an inactivity kill. Mention that it seems that M4yhem discounted Hazzel as a suspect and that Hazzel and MGM are the only ones with votes on them now. Also mention that D3sisted asked MGM why not vote M4yhem and this could be taken as possible breadcrumbing by the SK looking for mafia, but why not kill MGM is the SK is looking for mafia.
155. I wonder if it wouldnt be better for the SK to kill mafia so they can't gang up on him, but that it probably doesn't matter who dies as long as he's not left alone with a mafia majority.
156. MGM corrects my use of the word scum.
157. MGM lurker votes Ninja, FOS's DeepSouth.
158. Kinetic says that MGM is probably the most likely to be lynched and he see the town killing MGM so the SK would probably go for someone who isn't in danger of lynching just to eliminate people. Says he thinks a "newb SK" might think killing M4yhem would cast suspicion on MGM. Says he's suspicious of Hazzel, as well as others. And that there are two scum groups with info.

(Two things. Why assume a "newb SK"? Could be that the SK kill really was off D3sisted's post. And two who are the other people?)

159. I agree with MGM's correction, sk about Ninja vote, say I don't see the point of lurker votes. Ask Kinetic about two groups comment.
160. MGM says that the games been on for a while and not being able to post isnt an excuse, in regards to Ninja.
161. MGM corrects above.
162. CKD says hes still for an MGM lynch. Says that if we lynch MGM and MGM is mafia, then FOS on Kinetic. Asks how SK is trying to frame MGM with M4yhem kill, says he thinks there are better people to kill for a frame. Why would SK need to frame MGM. Thinks that if MGM were the SK he's take out someone voting for him

(wouldn't this be suspicious though)

Says the SK would probably get rid of someone voting for MGM to try and frame him. Wouldn't the SK be trying to frame me instead since M4yhem's vote was on me. How does killing M4yhem sped up MGM lynch.

(Should have called CKD out on this, but why assume the SK is stupid enough to kill someone voting for a suspect, because its not very likely someone would eliminate a person voting for them as that would be suspicious, so why assume the SK would use that to frame if its not solid logic. Actually this is all WIFOM.)

163. I ask CKD why Kinetic is suspicious if MGM turns out to be mafia.
164. CKD says it looks like Kinetic is defending MGM by trying to make it look like MGM is being framed. Doesn't trust anybody defending anybody else. Why the defense.

(Could be to keep from lynching a townie.)

165. MGM refers CKD to my post 154 for possible reasoning.
166. Hazzel asks Kinetic why he didn't answer my question of why Hazzel is suspiciousand most likely to be the SK. and what info Kinetic means and who the people are.

(Hmm...this is interesting. It is probably least likely that Hazzel is the SK due to the post thing.)

167. Kinetic says that both kills have been on MGM joke targets. Says he's defending MGM not because he thinks MGM isn't scummy but that he thinks the players wagoning on him are. Says CKD is putting words in his mouth about defending MGM. Says Hazzel chopped up his post and that he missed my question. Said he never said he though Hazzel was the SK, looking for a slip up. Thinks Hazzel is mafia, that one of the others on MGM is also mafia, and that MGM probably isn't the SK. Says the SK is his own group in response to my question.

(This accusation of post chopping doesn't hold up. I was unsure and checked, but Hazzel's first quote is post 151 the second is 158, I had indeed posted in between, asking that question. This is false on Kinetic's part.)

168. CKD FOSs Kinetic again, says MGM never targeted M4yhem. Asks how killing M4yhrm helps lynch MGM. Says that Kinetic seems to hve cleared himself both ways regardless of if MGM is scum. Asks if Kinetic thinks MGM is scum or not.

(This is a faulty premise. No one except the scum can be sure, so I don't fault Kinetic for this.)

169. Kinetic cites faulty notes. Thought MGM voted M4yhem after D3sisted, says "but it was really Heatherlou" says it was a mistake

(This is false. MGM voted CKD.)

Says his premise was flawed, but the SK wants MGM lynched regardless of alignment.

(this part is true)

Says he doesn't know what MGM is. Isn't going to say anything one way or the other due to pressure. Says he's seen scum pressure like this a lot.

(Yet CKD is asking for an opinion here. Opinions are not carved in stone.)

Says that regardless of what MGM is CKD will still be suspicious of Kinetic.

(This part is decent. All WIFOM, but it does theoretically hold).

Thinks CKD, Hazzel and I are the scummiest people here.

(I obviously have to disagree with this, on one count at least.)

Says hes not defending MGM and not going to "follow anyone blindly."

170. CKD says that "anyone playing mafia realizes why the SK did not want to hit MGM" and says Kinetic's faulty info would make it look like lynching MGM is scummy

(I don't understand this part. Also, note, my last post before this was the last post where I had a chance to actively play. So this is my first time doing a decent close read of everything starting after. I did post in between, but it was only comments on snatches.)

CKD says that Kinetic called him scum for calling out the fencesitting, not a logic trap. Thinks MGM and Kinetic are buddies and Kinetic is not sure of a lynch of MGM hence fence sitting. Asks why Kinetic won't admit why he's defending MGM. Asks why MGM is not on Kinetic's scum radar. Says he thinks MGM is still the person to lynch and he knows who he wants to target next.

(I'm not liking the cockiness of this post. Right now, on this read through, I'm thinking the two most suspicious people are CKD and Kinetic, both as possible mafia, and this may be distancing. This is all WIFOM right now though. I am not done reading yet. I type my thoughts as I go along.)

171. Stewie says he doesn't buy Hazzel's reasons.

(I don't like Stewie's brief posts, they don't add much.)

172. MGM says he voted D3sisted for crappy spelling and its not too much far fetched to think he has similar thoughts about M4yhem.
173. Kinetic says its not that he doesn't find MGM scummy, but that he finds MGM scummy on par with me, but Hazzel and CKD scummier. Doesn't like CKD's certainty that MGM is scum

(this point i agree with. No one can be certain of anything.)

Says he's not jumping on MGM because CKD and Hazzel as his prime suspects and that he's not defendng MGM. His defense of MGM is the same as CKD's defense of Hazzel.

(Hmmm... I missed this when I skimmed before. Why isn't Kinetic attacking me more head on here, if he really thinks I'm scummy? He hasn't really given any reason for me being scummy except for my vote on MGM at this point.)

Kinetic tells CKD not to threaten him, sarcastic comment.

174. MGM tells CKD to stop harassing Kinetic because if MGM dies CKD will find out that they're not partnets. Mentions other combinations. Says CKD finds Kinetic guilty without evidence. Asks how Kinetic defending him helps either of them. If theyre both scum, leads to two deaths, not one, and not MGM's playstyle.

(But is it Kinetic's playstyle? I'm not going to metagame here. The one time I tried it in another game it did not help me.)

175. Raffles says everyone who is posting looks scummy to him, not sure who to go for. lists his reasons as follows:
MGM: asks why harassing anyone is wrong, way to get them to talk, gained more insight on Kinetic.
Kinetic: seems to have no doubt on scum mind, with no WIFOM, seems to obvious to be scum though. Asks why not lynch anyone else (in refernce to SK wanting MGM lynched) Doesn't it not matter to the SK who gets lynched. Says d3sisted kill was probably random, and not too convinced that M4yh3m was a theme kill. Not liking Kinetic's reaction to CKD.
CKD: says CKD is talking sense

(Why?)

Me: Doesn't like that I contribute as things go along, townie should be trying to dig up stuff and generate conversation, says I'm not prepared to nitpick

(I'd like to point out that at this point, I've posted more than Raffles with nitpicking even.)

Hazzel: Asks for an opinion on Kinetic and MGM

(Okay....I don't like this post. Why not list reasons of possible suspicion for Hazzel and CKD. They haven't exactly been perfectly innocent n my eyes and I'm sure some other people agree here.)

176. Raffles asks us to ignore reference to another game.
177. Heather agrees with me that her last post didnt make a point. The point was that Heather read MGM's posts and found the switch scummy, and even if subsequent posts explained it, the initial switch was sudden and unexplained.

(I'm guessing Heather means backpeddling logic here.)

178. MGM says the switch had to be sudden and that with 1 week between kills there isnt enough time for a "nonscummy change of heart."

(Doesn't address the lack of reasoning for switch though.)

179. Kinetic says he was pointing out that an SK wouldnt atack MGM at all but wouldnt try to prevent MGM lynch. Thought he had more evidence when he brought up the point, learned he was wrong, says the point has not been contridicted yet

(Er...maybe i'm missing something, but wasn't Kinetic says that the SK was *framing* MGM...ie speeding up the lynch?)

Says the killing D3sisted lets the SK off the hook for killing mafia for now, says he first though MGM was the SK, but decided against that. Not sure if MGM is mafia though. Says he's not a fan of WIFOM because almost anything can be WIFOM

(this part about WIFOM is true.)

Wants to find a motive. Says to Raffles that his(Kinetic's) original theory for targeting M4yhem blew up and it was probably random. Didn't like Hazzel's jumping around and threatening people.

(I don't either particularly, but this post seems like damage control to me right now.)

Asks Raffles why not suspicious of CKD.

(This is a good point.)

180. MGM says no point in making Kinetic talk since he's already talking, says the premise of harassing Kinetic is faulty as he (MGM) is not scum. Asks for an answer about how questioning wagon makes Kinetic scum and how MGM killing d3sisted would be a coverup.
181. MGM says hes going to check if Kinetic is right about the quote splitting but FOSs Hazzel in the meantime.
182. Hazzel points out that Kinetic is wrong or lying about the post splitting as the posts referenced were 151, 154, and 158.
183. MGM asks for prods or replacements.
184. Hazzel quotes stuff about how Kinetic said he never said Hazzel was the SK.

(Hazzel quotes posts where Kinetic calls Hazzel as suspect here. To be fair, Kinetic doesn't actually say suspect for what. He might mean scum in general.)

Hazzel says its kind of impossible for town to know what scum are planning to do next.
185. Hazzel says he'll finish analyzing later.
186. Raffles says he's waiting for Hazzel's answers. asks Stewie for an opinion.
187. Pooky says that Ninja and DeepSouth have been prodded.
188. Hazzel says that he thinks while there is no proof that MGM is scum, MGM responds oddly when pressured and throws votes and accusations around, discusses meaninglessthings to stall, and has weird ideas that Hazze doesn't like.

(This isn't really a reason, I think.)

Hazzel says he hasn't jumped on Kinetic (Hazzel's vote is still on MGM) thinks Kinetic is a compulsive liar, doesn't think Kinetic is scum, just stupid.

(Er...I don't get this. If Kinetic isn't scum, why would he be lying?)

189. CKD asks if Kinetic isn't scum, why would he be lying.
190. I post, a brief overview of stuff after skimming the thread. (Hadn't had a chance to read everything between my last post and this one. This is after I passed out after not sleeping for 30+ hours. ) I unvote MGM. (Which I should have done before.) I ask Kinetic why he's associating me with CKD and Hazzel. I say I voted before Hazzel or CKD. I say that most of my posts refer to me wanting to be right about a lynch, not quick, so I'm not pushing. I think that MGM is possibly mafia though. I ask MGM why CKD should stop harassing Kinetic because harassing = information. I tell Raffles that I nitpick stuff when i see stuff to nitpick, if I don't see anything I wait until I do. Say I'll finish later.
191. Hazzel says he wants to revise his statement. He's not sure of Kinetic's alignment but thinks he's a lair.

(This doesn't answer the question)

192. MGM says he isn't stalling, says its okay to disagree with him, but he is trying to get discussion going.

(This is true)

193. MGM responds to me that pressure can lead to unneccessary defensiveness and might throw off a read.

(I don't agree with your comparison to claiming here, but it is a valid point otherwise.)

194. Stewie says he thinks at least one of Kinetic or Hazzel is scum, says Hazzel is more likely. Thinks MGM is town and at least one of the people on him is scum.

(Care to elaborate, please?)

195. Hazzel reference post 114. Says he's going to reset.

(Why is Hazzel so frustrated here?)

196. CKD asks for a clarification, asks Hazzel what his tactic was before.
197. Hazzel clarifies that he doesnt like that his tactics arent getting him anywhere. Tries to inflame people if scu, to slip up but its not working

(I just have to add that I don't think its a very valid tactic inflaming tht is).
198. Stewie corrects Hazzel's typo.
199. Kinetic says he's made a few mistakes in the game, and he's getting picked on for stupidity on his part. Says he's rereading and unvotes, but thinks he'll move it back to where it was.
200. Hazzel asks for a grammar clarrificantion.
201. Hazzel agrees with Stewie's correction.
202. Pooky says Xyzzy is replacing Ninja
203. I apologize for abscence start post analysis from very beginning to post 99.
204. MGM says he's still not willing to share the reason for his unvote of CKD back in the beginning of the game, because it would help the scum more.

(Would you care to explain why it would help the scum more, at least?)

205. Hazzel says that he thinks MGM is trying to imply he's a cop, smiley face.
206. Hazzel says MGM doesn't know anything that we don't know, asks for the reason, says its not information for sure.
207. MGM says that there are severa things he knows that we don't know and if we don't have an idea about what they are, he's not going to mention it.

(ohhhhhkay....i'm confused here.)

208. MGM asks for participation.
209. Raffles ass Stewie for reasons on why either Kinetic or Hazzel are scum in his opinion.
210. Kinetic asks for an SK deadline extension due to real life and not being able to post.
211. MGM says an extension would be nice and that we need replacements.
212. Stewie says he doesn't like Kinetic and Hazzel's arguing and that Hazzel is more likely to be scum because of confusing this game with the newbie game (which happened, yes, but has since stopped). says MGM seems to be protown.

(I still am not thrilled about hte lack of actual content from Stewie. This post doesn't say much.)

213. MGM votes Hazzel because of lynch deadline and lack of other target, says that he would be happy to lynch present but not posting players.
214. Raffles votes Stewie by lynch all lurkers.
215. MGM points out that Stewie posted almost as much as Raffles and has been sharing his opinions.

(Which is note entriely true. Stewie, while sharing, hasn't ben substantiating.)

216. CKD is surprised about the opinion that Stewie is lurking.
217. Raffles says Stewie i lurking in plain sight byt not really contributing. Says he didn't know the game started until some pages in. Mentions other game with lurking scum.

(I don't like metagaming, but agree that Stewie hasn't contributed much.)

218. MGM says Raffles should have asked for contribution directly, but that he doesn't see Stewie's posts as none contributing.
219. I apologize for my abscence.
220. Hazzel says he doesn't see what game mixups have to do with being scum.

(I think the point here was possible use of the newbie card.)

221. Hazzel says that he really doesnt care about my reason for being away.

(Jeez, no need to be rude. I was apologizing for contributing to the hold up of this game, though if it suits you better I can disapear without a reason next time.)

222. Hazzel sort of apologizes.
223. Stewie says something that I don't quite understand here. Says he doesn't see how Raffles thinks he isn't contributing.

(Here, I would like to ask Stewie to back up his opinions on other players with post quotes and such)

224. MGM asks for a votecount.
225. CKD jumps on Hazzel for the rude comment, saying that everyone should care because we're on deadline.
226. CKD offers an unofficial votecount.
227. Hazzel answers Stewie's confusing post with a confusing post. (I don't get this, but I don't think its important right now)
228. Hazzel cites his sort of apology.
229. Hazzel again sort of apologizes, but not really.
230. Stewie says that Hazzel made a comment only scum would have, justifies it by citing game confusion, does it again.

(Okay, I think I get this now. His point is that Hazzel's lost of townie thing was scummy)

231. Raffles says that it sort of defeats the purpose of catching lurkers

(why are we on a lurker hunt? I thought we were hunting scum. The two are not synonymous.)

Says Stewie has been commenting without justification. Says it looks like scum flying under the radar.

(Couldn't this also apply to you, Raffles?)

232. MGM asks if Raffles was just trying to make an accusation of lurking stick. Fos's Raffles.
233. Hazzel says he posted right after the mistake before anyone said anything and that the argument is a fallacy

(But Hazzel also said that he still doesn't see anything bad about lynching townies even after discussion)

234. Kinetic votes Hazzel, says he is the best bet.

(Reasons please?)

235. Stewie says Hazzel posting about the mistake only means that he realized it before anyone else,. Also says that Hazzel did it again.

(This seems kind of irrelevent)

236. Raffles asks MGM about the FOS.
237. CKD says we're at deadline.
238. I post a pbp of 100-149.
239. MGM says after the first no lynch he expected a lynch the second week, but was wrong, says that Heather called him scummy but hasn't been helpful. Says we need a lynch now.

(MGM, you're currently voting Hazzel, how sure are you of that?)

240. Heather says she doesn't like voting without being sure (I agree here), mentions the game confusion thing with Hazzel.

And that brings me up to date. I'm going to go take care of a few quick household chores and then get back here with my opinions of players. I am not prepared to vote, yet, however, as there is lots of stuff still unanswered.

[Mirth]

Okay, player impressions (sorry for the mass posting), I'm going in the order of the front page. I'm basing a lot of this on degree of lynch pushing, because, while I think we do need to figure out who the SK is and quickly, I'd rather have something solid to go on before we kill anyone. My premise is that anybody who is completely sure or seems completely sure of a lynch suspect seems to be more suspicious since only 4 people here know something the rest of us dont.

CKD- very active, which is good, and brings up valid points, but I don't like his method of attacking Kinetic (see my above post for reference to which posts bother me) or his certainity that Kinetic and MGM are partners. I think it is possible that he and Kinetic are partners and that was all distancing, but this opinion is all just WIFOM and I know it. I do think his initial attack of MGM was warranted, though, but I don't like the pushing for a lynch. I'm leaning toward mafia.

Deepsouth - no opinion at all. He had a couple of posts early on, but I really have nothing to say about him.

Hazzel - Aggressive, not particularly nice in agression. I don't like the accusations of Kinetic being a liar, but that is mainly because of the follow up. If you're not sure if hes scum or not, you cant be sure if he's lying or not. The two are dependent. I also don't like the attempts to inflame people. Sure, I believe in battering people, but not with accusations. I don't think Hazzel is the SK, but I'm not going to rule out the fact that Hazzel might be mafia, but right now I'm just not sure. I also don't get why, after that whle long exchange with Kinetic, Hazzel's vote is still on MGM. See above for a few particular things that bother me. Oh. And I don't like Hazzel's townie claim. It was unnecessary.

Heatherlou - not much of an opinion here. She hasn't said much. I don't think she's mafia simply because she hasn't interacted with anyone else very much, but I'm not ruling out the possibility that she is the SK. My opinion here is neutral, possibly leaning toward townie though, as she's not actively pushing for a lynch on anyone.

Kinetic - I definately do not like a few of his comments, especially about Hazzel splitting his posts. (By the way, Kinetic, you still haven't answered about that. Please do so.) I don't like his all out arguement with CKD (this could be WIFOM on my part, I'm aware of it.) I think he is possibly Mafia, but probably not the SK, unless he's breadcrumbing stuff.

MGM- He bothered me early on with the d3sisted hunch/random thing, and up until my abscence and read through I was thinking he was probably mafia. I am not sure now, but am leaning to townie, based on the exchanges between Kinetic and CKD, as those just seem to bother me a lot. I also like that MGM is pushing for conversation, which is protown.

Raffles - I am suspicious of Raffles. I don't like his attempts at trying to catch people at lurking. (Though I agree that up until recently Stewie really wasn't contributing much) I agree with MGM that its better to directly question. While I understand that some scum like to lurk, there are other scum who are super active, so I don't want to generalize anything. I don't like how he wrote off CKD as protown and didn't post an opinion of Hazzel a while back.

Stewie - Not much of an opinion. I would like to hear his opinion of everyone.

Xyzzy/Ninja - No opinion at all.

That said, its now past the SK's deadline, so its too late for a lynch anyway.

[Mirth]

CKD, maybe. I read most of that in one big chunk. I might have missed a lot, but doing a play by play helps me focus.

Also, dead townie, not good. I'm assuming this was for the sole purpose of getting rid of a nonactive player, as DeepSouth didn't do much...

[Mirth]

Why are you convinced it was used to frame MGM? DeepSouth had two posts. The first post he FOSed you for something you didn't say in regards to the serial killer posting (you didnt correct him). And he voted Raffles for not having posted yet. The second post he unvotes. No connection to MGM whatsoever, why bring it up?

[Mirth]

By solid I mean something more than back and forth arguing thats pretty much based off faulty assumptions. I'm just not particularly convinced that there's anything substantially compellingly damning yet. Which I know is probably not good, but I'd rather not be wrong.

As to your question, well, I didn't answer because I don't think it is a coverup, and then I sort of forgot about it while finishing the read. Ive stated the possible WIFOM scenerios entailing a set-up, but I'm more partial to the explanation that the SK probably traced M4yhem through D3sisted's only post. (Though I wouldn't put my money on that. I'm more convinced they're random lurker kills, honestly). I don't think you're tied in any way to either kill, though Kinetic seemed to think so. I'm not sure of his opinions though since they seemed to be based on false premises. I'd actually like to reserve judgement until Kinetic answers some of the stuff I pointed out..

[Mirth]

Sorry, I spent most of the night awake and my sarcasm detector is not at all functional in the wee hours of the morning. What is the point of joking about it though?

[Mirth]

Stewie: yes, I understand what you were saying. I did every single post because it helps me understand stuff. I would, however, like to hear your opinion of everybody still alive, if you don't mind.

CKD: I get that it was a jab at Kinetic, but what did you hope to gain from it?

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If you feel like voting me, go right ahead, as there is absolutely nothing in my defense that I can say that I haven't already said, and it probably wouldn't pressure me into voting. At the moment, I just do not know where my vote would go. I know where it probably wouldn't go, but that's it. I could tell you that my vote probably isn't going toward Heather, Stewie, or Xyzzy, as I don't see anything to encourage it. It also probably wouldn't go toward Raffles, though I still would like an answer from him about the lurker thing (I also doubt that Raffles is the SK). There's a good chance that it won't go back on MGM at the moment, though it probably could.

So that leaves 3 choices for me. Hazzel, Kinetic, and CKD. As I understand, since there are 9 of us alive, and Hazzel already has 3 votes, it would take 2 votes to lynch. If I were to vote for Hazzel (which I am not convinced that I should), I would not do so until saturday night or sunday morning, as I don't a premature hammer to occur. So if I decide to vote for Hazzel, who I'd say I'm 90% sure isn't the SK for metagaming reasons, it ultimately wouldn't eliminate what I currently think is the more pressing problem.

But it seems that there are only two reasonable bandwagons. One on MGM and one on Hazzel. I will assume that at least two mafia members are voting (if not all three, and the SK as well), and my three main suspects for mafia are on either one or the other bandwagon. I make this assumption because the mafia has the most priviledged information in this game, and thus can afford to vote. (I'm also going to venture the thought that as to Hazzel and Kinetic, I think only one of the two is mafia, though it could be both or neither. I think this because of where Kinetic's vote is, though I definately do not like Hazzel writing him off as a liar or the probably innocent persuasion. I also want that explained.)

Now then, were I to vote immediately, right this very instant, my vote would be heading toward Kinetic. I'm still waiting for Kinetic to explain something though. He never answered Hazzel's accusations of lying. Why? What does he have to say to that?

Is that a good enough answer to you MGM? Also, I really don't see what's so important about you taking your vote off CKD at the beginning of the game that you don't feel like sharing. I'm thinking it could possibly be a bluff, to see who jumps on it the most, but that's the only thing I can come up with. I don't particularly like that, because I know I'm grasping at straws here, and we all know it.

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Oh, and one more thing, since MGM asked for a vote from all the non-voters, I'd just like to ask each person voting to individually explain why they're voting whomever they are voting (yes I know you all probably have already, but, please, humor me on this) and also explain who they think is most probably the serial killer and/or mafia members.

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Damn right I'm lurking, this game has been nothing but back and forth arguments and I think we just need to lynch cause we're all grasping at straws.
As for other scum, I have no concrete ideas

Then why did you not vote for Hazzel before? Why wait until MGM decided to criticize?

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Could you define strange please?

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Fair enough.

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Does that mean we can finally have a lynch?

If by finally, you mean Sunday morning, I'll be betting on probably, as Hazzel is at L-1 right now, if my count is correct.

General statement: please noone else vote Hazzel in the time between now and Sunday.

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Anything is better than another no lynch.

I'm still not sure I agree with this, as I don't think we can afford to lose another townie, but I am not opposed to lynching Hazzel, as he is one of my top three suspects.

To answer CKD my main problem with Hazzel is the still unaccounted for contridiction of saying that Kinetic is "a compulsive liar" but "probably town" the two should be logically mutually exclusive in this sort of set up. I don't think this could be justified.

(The other main point against Hazzel is what Stewie outlined.)

I would also really like to hear more from Hazzel before Saturday.

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I find this slightly amusing even though I shouldn't. Two of my main suspects arguing about the third.

As I've stated before, at the moment I think that Hazzel, Kinetic, and CKD are most likely to be mafia. (I also think that Hazzel and Kinetic are not mafia together, though anything is possible). I may be horribly wrong, however.

Kinetic, CKD, I'd like to hear what you think about my opinion that the two of you are partners.

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He has all but admitted that HQ and him are mafia, but says we should avoid that because the SK is still around.

How?

No, really, how?

I'd like an actual explanation out of you.

Also, looking at the flipside, if we mislynch and then the SK hits town again, then we are even more screwed.

Now, we are at nine. The SK doesn't care who swings. So this means 3 mafia will try to vote someone who isn't them, SK will vote whoever. Town is in the dark. If we kill a townie, one of two things happen.
a) SK kills townie, we are at 7, with three mafia, three townies, 1 SK. SK will go with the most likely lynch. So a townie will probably die. That would mean the day starts off with five. At that point it would be most likely for the SK to have killed a mafia player overnight. Mafia have a 1/3 chance of lynching correctly then, but would need a townie to go along with them. Either way, this scenerio is bad, bad, very bad.
b) SK kills mafia, we are at 7. 2 mafia, 1 SK, 4 townies. Mafia will most likely wagon on someone, and I assume the SK would join in. So a townie will probably die. At night it would be more statstically sound for a townie dying again. See above.

I'm going to purpose at, statistically speaking, since Hazel has 4 votes, there has to be at least 1 scum voting Hazel, most likely 2.

So I'm going to

Vote: Kinetic

because I have not liked your play thus far and you and CKD are the most suspicious people here.

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And I missed MGM's post.

MGM, you've been on Hazzel pretty much the whole game, can you give a sightly more wordy explanation of why you changed your vote?

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No... not at all. In fact, the SK has been targeting inactives, something which he could plan well in advance, tell the Mod, and when the appointed time comes... bam. He could be a lurker type like you or Stewie easily...

How would you happen to know this, Kinetic? The SK can't predict who would be inactive in advance. He's just a serial killer, not a psychic. Therefore it is more probable that two things happen: one is that the SK sends kills in closer to deadline. Two is that the SK is probably impatient with the slowness of this game.

Also, I disagree with you both. I think it is in the SK's best interest that a lynch does take place. A lynch of someone who isn't himself, obviously. Raffles, I doubt an SK would be stupid enough to hammer before deadline, because that pretty much gives him away. It is in his best interest to play the nice townie, not raise any suspicion (as an early lynch would most certainly do), and hope the mafia don't hold enough votes to gang up on him.

At the same time a no-lynch doesn't really help him. Sure he's safe for the moment, but its more of a neutral position, than help. What actively helps him, though, is a lynch of anyone who isn't him. This isn't necessarily bad, if we lynch mafia. If we lynch town, then it's very bad.

Now then, other comments:

What do you mean by "just yet" Raffles? Are you saying that your vote swings with the wind? Please explain

My mafia theory involves Kinetic, CKD, and Hazzel. (and to a much lesser extent MGM.) I've yet to form an SK theory because the SK hasn't given very much information about himself. I'm pretty sure that the SK isn't Hazzel of Raffles based on metagaming, but I don't think it's solid proof of anything.

I would also really like to hear from Heather right now. She hasn't had much to say and I think I'd like to know her thoughts on this matter.

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Oh and two more small things:

Kinetic, CKD actually has two votes now, you and MGM.

Also, Xyzzy hasn't posted anything constructive (just a one liner about rereading and CKD being suspicious without backing it up with anything).

Mod, can you please prod Xyzzy?

I'm going to guess, following the SK's pattern, that after we lynch, if we lynch, Xyzzy will end up the SK's victim.

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First, i just want to say, "children, this is no place for namecalling."

Second. I don't like this. :

CKD, stop calling for yourself to be killed. If you

were

a townie as you claim that would be a bad thing, no? I'm sorry, I don't believe you.

[...bunch of stuff...]

Hell I would self hammer myself if it meant a lynch before deadline because I HONESTLY believe the town will lose unless there is some lynch. EVEN if they lynch a townie they still have a chance in hell, which is better than what is going on now.

You attack CKD for calling a kill on himself and then offer to self-hammer. Nice.

I still stand by my suspicion that a mafia pair is either CKD and Hazzel or CKD and Kinetic.

on to CKD: we're not technically at LYLO as long as the serial killer is around and there are at least two townies.

MGM: so you're saying we should keep the SK alive for now? Why exactly?

After this last exchange, I'm probably not moving my vote off Kinetic. I figure I havw a 1/2 chance of being right (as I know my role, that least 8 of you whose roles I do not know, with four of the said eight being evil puppy-kicking maniacs . Hence decent odds.)

Also, I really don't like how Heather isn't saying anything. And Xyzzy hasn't said anything. I'm not big on lurker votes, but they might make me change my opinion. I ask them to please comment on something.

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Yes, I understand that, but, as he should theoretically have an easier time avoiding a lynch (there is only one of him, after all, and he's not aiming for a majority), he should be able to hide better, so leaving him alive isn't something I want to aim for.

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Raffles: I'm not a fan of veiled threats. If you want to vote for me, go right ahead, just please be diret about it.

MGM: Right now I'm really not sure what to make of you with you keeping the SK alive strategy.

Also if we lynch, we should lynch tomorrow.

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Let's talk about the people who are stalling by not voting AT ALL.

Who do you mean by that, MGM? Only people not voting right now are Raffles and Xyzzy. I think Raffles said he would vote for Hazzel. Which just leaves Xyzzy who has had one post which only said that he was reading and that CKD was suspicious but failed to explain why he thought so. (My prediction is that Xyzzy will be the SK's next kill if the SK follows his previous pattern. The SK, may, of course, attempt targeting players he thinks are mafia, which will, I think, finally give us some information about him.

As to an actual lynch, as I've said, my vote will swing one of three ways. Kinetic, CKD, or Hazzel, as I think two of the three are scum.

At the moment they each have 2 votes, if I am not mistaken. If I were to move my vote, CKD or Hazzel would have 3. I will only move my vote if it will actually help with a lynch, as I suspect the three pretty much equally.

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I am willing to vote Hazzel, I'm just going to wait until tomorrow evening before doing so if nobody beats me to it. Don't want to give the SK any extra time.

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I have to disagree with you. We reset his clock and lose a day of conversation in the meantime.

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I would like Hazzel to comment.

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So I'm guessing we wait for the mod now...

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Discussion would be good if it can be sparked. I still would really like to hear something from Hazzel before the mod officially declares him dead. I would also probably like to hear a suspicion list from everyone, since one of us will also be joining Hazzel in the land of the dead when the mod appears.

here is mine:

CKD - i think he is mafia. the arguments with kinetic make me think this.
Kinetic - i think he is mafia (or possibly the SK), but my theory may change depending on what Hazzel comes back as. i don't like most of his game play.
MGM - think there is a possibility of MGM being the SK based on comments about leaving the SK alive for now to hunt the mafia. While it may help I think it isnt very reasonable to rely on the benevelance of the SK and then hope to catch him.
Raffles - i do not think he is mafia, and i doubt he is the SK. i don't think he is mafia, mainly because i think other people are. the other has to do with metagaming, but i'm not putting very much stock in it.
Heather - i don't know what to think. i just wish she'd contribute more. can't get a read.
Stewie - i do not think he is mafia. (my opinion of Stewie and Raffles may changed based on what Hazzel is) he hasn't said anything that i find suspicious, though i would like more opinion from him.
Xyzzy - i do not like the virtual lack of posting one bit. and have no opinion.

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It would, but it does not stop the SK from killing. He just needs to make sure he isn't left alone with two mafia members at end game, which, regardless of who he kills tonight, he has a pretty good chance of avoiding. As long as he isn't the mafia's only choice to vote off, he still wins. Therefore while killing mafia is beneficial to him, he does not automatically lose by missing once or twice. It is also easier to hide as a one player entity than as a team. The SK has a vote that can swing wherever. The mafia doesn't.

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EBWOP

: As long as he isn't the mafia's only choice to vote off, he still

could win.

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Where my vote goes tomorrow depends on what Hazzel turns up as. If Hazzel is town, then I think Kinetic is most likely scum. Asking for me to target him first, though, doesn't help your case.

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The front page says that CKD was a townie. There are two things about this that I don't like. One is obviously the fact that we have a dead townie. The second is the that SK took CKD up on his offer. This means one of two things: the SK thought that CKD was mafia or the SK was just being mean. I'm going to go with the first option, since it seems like more sound strategy, and CKD was acting kind of scummy. (I know I was pretty convinced he was mafia). I'm going to

vote:Kinetic

and
current FOS: Xyzzy

My explanations as follows: Kinetic and CKD were at each others throats. I was not happy with how either of them played, and was under the impression they were partners (which they obviously aren't). My theory was that of Hazzel, CKD, and Kinetic, at least two were mafia. I don't think Hazzel and Kinetic are partners, but I'm still suspicious of Kinetic. If it wasn't distancing, why go so far out of his way to attack CKD?

Why I'm FOSing Xyzzy: he has one post. Ninja before him also has one post. They both say they'll post later but they never do. The SK made a point to target inactive players, yet Xyzzy/Ninja is still alive. While it could be a case of random selection of inactive players followed by a kill on someone who the SK thought it scummy, I know both of these theories are WIFOM. I would like to hear from Xyzzy.

Mod can you please prod Xyzzy?

because I'd really like to hear what he has to say in regards to pretty much everything, but mostly my theory.

And also MGM, are you willing to share what you didn't feel like sharing yet? Because I'm still quite curious about that.

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and I am QUITE suspect of Mirth for having such a quick response to the day.

You mean not quite as quick as yours, since you answered before me, after all?

I've been suspicious of you since I did my reread, but I freedly admit that I was wrong about CKD. I do think you're the most suspicious person here.

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Kinetic, I don't think you're mafia anymore. I think you're the SK. I'm also not entirely sure I understand your reason for why it doesn't make sense for the SK to kill CKD.

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But that doesn't answer my question. Why doesn't it make sense for the SK to kill CKD.

Also, I like how whenever someone suspects you, you deflect suspicion right back at them.

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Anyway, I'm currently doing a quick re-read, let me finish that then I'll try to explain better why I wouldn't target CKD.

The phrasing of this just makes me want to say this: "it doesn't matter who you would or would not target unless you actually are the SK" but I would like t hear your opinion anyway.

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Gah >> I've been framed and in my own eyes I think I have the best reason to do it......

See what I don't like about this is how sure you are that you've been framed (yes, this is all going to be WIFOM, just like your entire post was). You weren't the only one who thought CKD and Hazzel were both mafia. I have freely admitted that was my opinion pre CKD's death. MGM also had a vote on CKD. It wouldn't be too far fetched to think the SK truly believed that CKD was mafia and thought he was getting rid of him.

Now the odd thing, and the thing that really bothers me about the kill is that the SK didn't wait for a confirm to Hazzel's alignment. I just noticed this.

As to your questions.
1. At this point, while I still believe a mislynch is bad, I think mathematically, with only 7 players left, a no lynch would not be helpful. We have a 3/7 chance of hitting scum with a lynch. A no lynch, while giving us a 3/6 chance the the next day, would make a town win harder. My opinion has changed based on the number of players alive and the increased odds of lynching correctly.
2. Yes, you're perfectly right. I totally missed your post voting for MGM. When I did my read through, I caught it, and commented on my mistake in that.
3. I still stand by my opinion that the SK's main motive is to hide and his kills would probably enable that.
4. My opinion on you changed based on Hazzel coming up scum. Because my original thought was it was either you and CKD or CKD and Hazzel. I was wrong on both counts and I don't think you and Hazzel are partners.
5. MGM still isn't cleared in my book. I'm not ruling out the possibility that he is the SK, but I'm pretty darn sure he isn't mafia.
6. I would like to hear what Raffles, Heather, and Stewie have to say about your comments.
7. A couple posts ago you mentioned me as high on your suspect list. Why am I seemingly no longer on it?
8. This one is actually for Raffles. Raffles, you mentioned a long while ago that lurkers are evil. How do you now apply that opinion to this game?

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Where my vote goes tomorrow depends on what Hazzel turns up as. If Hazzel is town, then I think Kinetic is most likely scum.

So HazzelQ turned up scum and you still find a reason to find him suspicious. That's scummy in my book.

Because I said this under the impression that CKD would have also turned up mafia. That assumption turned out to be wrong. I'm just not convinced of Kinetic's innocence, and hence am suspicious of him as the SK. Yet you seem to be so sure he isn't, why is this exactly?

Kinetic, as to hiding, well, I don't find my two statements mutually exclusive, as it really all depends on two-way WIFOM. (Why would you kill CKD, that doesn't help you so you're probably not the SK, but then again thats juat wast you may want us to think and killed him precisely because of this, lather, rinse, repeat.)

But you are right about one thing. I do need to do another reread. Whether I decide to keeo my vote on you depends on that. (I'm going to be gone for most of today though, so I'll do this in the late evening or tomorrow morning. This is my last post at least until them)

Raffles, MGM, could you please answer my questions?

Also,

Mod, could you please prod Xyzzy

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The very scenerio that Raffles presents is the reason why I'm now for a lynch.

Raffles: I meant is lurkers = t3h 3v1l, why is your vote on Kinetic, who is most certainly not lurking?

I just got back from a long and horrible day and will do a reread tomorrow. I'm going to

unvote:Kinetic

for now though, because I'm not too thrilled with Heather also attacking him. It seems that Heather only jumps in on stuff after other people have started it. I would like to hear an original opinion from her.

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If I don't see someone worth voting for in active players, of course I would go for someone who is inactive, especially in the game like this. Hence Stewie.

Stewie isn't inactive. Why are you picking on him so much? Sure, I'm not too crazy about his posting but its on par with Heather content and quantity wise.

I also see that you are hardly likely to turn on kinetic (something I've been noting all along). Why is that? Where do you get your belief that kinetic must be town?

This is something I've noticed to. They do seem to be defending each other. But it might not be indicitive of anything at all. (I also don't think they're mafia just because of both of their interactions with Hazzel.)

[quote:"MGM"]Anyway, since he replaced an inactive Deepfried Ninja, I think we can cross him of the SK suspect list. [/quote]

Don't be so sure of this. Prior to August 22 when Pooky announced the replacing, Ninja was also active in all his other threads: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... ried+Ninja

His last post anywhere was in this thread on August 18. (Xyzzy replaced on August 22). It was perfectly possible for Ninja to send in a kill before disapearing completely. Hence I'm not ruling Xyzzy out as the SK just yet. I very highly doubt he's mafia, as lurking isn't really helping the mafia, but I'm not writing of SK.

I'm now doing an individual re-read of Kinetic. Let's see if my opinion changes.

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I just did my reread of Kinetic. And I realized why I'm suspicious of him. The first 10 or so posts by him only talk about SK strategy. Then he starts arguing with CKD over whether its better to find the SK, mafia, or whichever happens along. (CKD wants to get rid of the SK first, which, I honestly agree would be better). While it seems that Kinetic is pushing for a scum lynch, he's more clearly pushing for a mafia lynch. (If you look over the argument with CKD, Kinetic doesn't seem to say too much about finding the SK, rather that he thinks he knows who the mafia is and they need to be lynched.) Kinetic is the first to bring up the SK sending the mod PMs in advance. (How would he know this?) Then he starts throwing around opinions of who he thinks is the SK, but his vote doesn't follow. More snark at CKD. Speaks for MGM. Changes opinion of CKD from "mafia" to "either mafia or SK" without an explanation. And that brings me up to where Kinetic asked me to do a reread on him.

Now that I have, I'm going to

vote: Kinetic

with a lot more confidence. Yes, I agree that finding any scum is good, but I his preoccupation with what he would do if he was the SK, and his focus on finding the mafia more so it what worries me.

For the record, I think that the person who killed CKD thought he was scum. If I'm not mistaken that narrows the field to MGM, Kinetic, and myself (unless there was someone else who was also convinced CKD was scum). I know what I am, and while I haven't ruled MGM out as a suspect, I find Kinetic more scummy. I'm also a bit worried about how they seem to be defending each other, but I don't think they're mafia based on Hazzel.

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Well, I don't know any other way to prove to you I wasn't bussing HQ.
And please let me know when I was 100% completely for HQ? You make it sound like I was a freakin cheerleader all over HQ. I was not. I was more passionate about voting for him then I ever was when I was unsure of his scumminess.
If I was HQ's scumbuddy, there would be no reason for me to be so vehement against him. I could just be kind of wavering and then vote for him. Would still cast suspicion away from me without giving me a concrete position. What you are proposing I did by throwing my fellow scum under a bus so completely just wouldn't be a good strategy for a scummy person.

I believe the case against me presented by Kinetic is clearly to get some pressure off of him. He's, in all aspects, trying to make me look more extreme than I really am. Raffles, you just stated you have not seen me come up with an original opinion. How can I be extreme and at the same time not come up with an original opinion?

vote: Kinetic

You were nowhere near vehement about Hazzel. You have a total of 13 posts. Of those 3, maybe 4, are anti-Hazzel. And these were made only after other people expressed anti-Hazzel sentiments. I maintain that your attacks only come after other people begin them.

Also I really don't like the fact that you decided to put Kinetic at L-1 right now. While I do think that Kinetic is the SK, nobody but the SK and Kinetic know this for sure (whether they are the same person or not really doesn't matter to the case of anyone knowing anything for certain.) This is Monday. Our new deadline, I believe, is Saturday evening. If Kinetic isn't the SK (I think he is, but I could be wrong just as I was wrong with my opinion of CKD), opening the door for an early lynch could be very bad, as anyone could be justified in hammering, whether the real SK, mafia, or an over-eager townie.

Therefore, I'm going to

unvote:Kinetic

for the time being (unless I get a stronger scum vibe from someone else, my vote will return to Kinetic Friday evening.) While I do want a dead SK, and am willing to risk a mislynch to a no-lynch, I am not willing to risk a premature mislynch.

That said, Heather, I would like to hear your opinions off all the players still alive.

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Actually, Kinetic, I reread Day 1. And I still think you're probably the SK based on what you have said. I attributed my suspicion of you mistakenly to you and CKD distancing, but your argument with him was genuine and thus even more disturbing. Your only defense of yourself seems to be "reread the thread." I've done that. I don't see it as defense.

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The manner of the argument. Yes, CKD was suspcious. I too found him suspicious. But just because CKD was suspicious doesn't mean that Kinetic wasn't. Both of their arguments were suspicious.

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And why not? Can you explain to me why you think those two words are mutually exclusive?

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Since you ask so nicely:

gen·u·ine
–adjective
1. possessing the claimed or attributed character, quality, or origin; not counterfeit; authentic; real: genuine sympathy; a genuine antique.
2. properly so called: a genuine case of smallpox.
3. free from pretense, affectation, or hypocrisy; sincere: a genuine person.
4. descended from the original stock; pure in breed: a genuine Celtic people.


sus·pi·cious
1. tending to cause or excite suspicion; questionable: suspicious behavior.
2. inclined to suspect, esp. inclined to suspect evil; distrustful: a suspicious tyrant.
3. full of or feeling suspicion.
4. expressing or indicating suspicion: a suspicious glance.

The two words are non-contridictory. Just because something that someone says is genuine (meaning that it is a sincere expression of their opinion) does not mean it cannot also be suspicious (i.e. to incite suspicion in others based on the motive that that opinion represents). I believe now that both of them meant what they said and the argument was really an argument of different philosophies. But the fact that it was a real argument and that those are really their philosophies by no means stops me from questioning the motivational factors behind the philosophies. (I'm also not trying to be snarky here, sorry if I come off that way, but the two words are not antonyms.)

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Kinetic: Explain to me how I'm not helping? And I'm not retroactively justifying my suspicion of you. I did the reread by casting aside my opinions, and it came out that I still don't like what I'm hearing. I think you really did mean your argument with CKD, yes, but what you were argueing is what raises my suspicion, as well as your early references to the SK. My original theory actually ignored your earlier comments about the SK and focused more on your fight with CKD. I assumed, since I found you both individually suspicious, that you were working together based on the debate (which wasn't a very good assumption). That was wrong, but my suspicion of you has not been cleared.

MGM: I think he really believes a mafia kill would be better because he is the SK. Yes, he is honest, but honest doesn't mean all-revealing. You can be honest and still mislead someone based on things like presentation and omission. Or you could be honest about your opinion without revealing the motives for it. That is stil honesty. Perhaps I should clarify that I'm using genuine in the context of "real" and "authentic" overall, though.

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I have found the SK is never who you think it is

Then who do you think the SK isn't?

One point though: I'm not convinced that Heather is mafia. I'm not happy with her play, yes, but near-lurking and copycat play does not make a case for me. (I've run across innocent folks who happen to play like that. While its bad for the town, so is killing them.) I'm not saying I think Heather is innocent, as I don't know, but I would like to hear her at least try to defend herself. Also if I'm going to vote for a lurker, then my vote will probably go to Xyzzy. Yes, it is a crappy metagaming reason, but I don't like that he's active but just not here.

So then, Heather, I'd like to hear what you have to say to Kinetic's accusations. I'd like to hear just about anything from Xyzzy at this point, really.

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Hmmm...that is an interesting thing to think about. It tempts me into the realm of process of elimination. (But that has gotten me nowhere before.) What the heck, I'll list mine, and see what happens.

People who I don't think are mafia:
MGM
Kinetic

People who I don't think are the SK:
Raffles

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Mod: can you please prod Xyzzy?

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Kinetic, I am very very tempted to put you back at L-1 right now. First you say that you think Raffles and I are partners. Then Heather posts and you give up this theory and go back after her. (If you're so sure of Heather being scum, then Raffles and I can't possibly be partners. By your own reasoning it would be one or the other.) Then Stewie says he's willing to go after Xyzzy and you unvote and vote him, even though just a post before you say you're certain of Heather being scum.

[Mirth]

First my problem with your statement isnt that you suspect me, but your statement of suspicion in general. If you are sure that Heather is mafia, that leaves only one other possible mafia person. So it would be a situation of me *or* Raffles. (If it is indeed the case that Raffles or I are scum) I also don't like your offer to self-hammer. If you are town, why would you want to?

[Mirth]

As I've mentioned before, my internet sarcasm detector doesn't work late at night.

Just out of curiousity, though, what makes you suspect that Raffles and I might be partners. (By this I mean, what do you see connecting us, more than what makes you suspicious.)

[Mirth]

I fail to see your reasoning. If you thought MGM was possibly the SK why not attack?

Also, can you explain how you arrived at these totals please?

[Mirth]

Then why are you still connecting yourself to MGM?

[Mirth]

Because I'm not all that sure about my SK guesses right now. I've gone from SK being MGM, then DeepSouth, then CKD, now Stewie. I've been wrong at least three times on SK,

How do you know this? By saying you're been wrong at least three times you completely discount the possibility that MGM is the SK. Why?

And yes, I concede it's possible you're town, anything is possible. I'm just leaning to the side that you aren't.

Also, as much as I really don't like what you've been saying so far, at least you're talking. I'm pretty much fed up with Xyzzy. Normally, I don't put too much credance into lynching lurkers, but I agree with MGM that, should I live to endgame, I don't want to be stuck with a complete unknown. It's also really irking me how he keeps posting everywhere but here.

So I'm going to

Vote: Xyzzy

as its getting very close to deadline, and he's my second highest suspect for SK at the moment, simply due to the total lack of playing. I'm honestly sick of waiting for any glimmer of caring from him.

[Mirth]

I'm not sure but I think Xyzzy has 3 votes (MGM, Kinetic, me), and Kinetic has 2 votes, Heather, Raffles). Stewie and Xyzzy aren't voting.

Something that piqued my interest. Other than a random vote for Ninja, Stewie's only voted once, and that was for Hazzel, when that bandwagon had already started.

[Mirth]

Hmm...you're right there. I was looking at Pookys vote counts and if thats the case some of them have vote order reversed.

[Mirth]

And yet you have time to be active in all your other games. Would you care to explain this?

[Mirth]

Heather, I'd like to hear what you think of this all, please.

[Mirth]

Yes, thats for votes. Stewie did mention before that he'd be okay with voting Xyzzy though.

[Mirth]

EBWOP^ four.

my brain isn't functioning today.

[Mirth]

Raffles, I'm assuming by that comment that you think Xyzzy isn't the SK. Why?

[Mirth]

About what? Giving the SK ideas who to kill?

Why do you say this? If Xyzzy isn't scum, then the SK would probably go after who he thinks is most likely scum. We've already had plenty of oppurtunity to give him ideas about that.

[Mirth]

Mirth: because I'm narrowing my SK search to those who weren't on HazQ wagon. And now that we know both deepfried/Xyzzy was active during that period (I forgot which player it was at the time, doesn't matter to my argument) I find it very unlikely that SK wasn't on that wagon. And deepfried/Xyzzy certainly wasn't on it.

Alright, so that would be pretty much everyone still alive except Xyzzy. Because at the point of Hazzel's lynch, the only people not on the wagon were myself and Xyzzy. And I made it clear my vote would probably migrate over to Hazzel closer to deadline (I think you beat me to it), so how exactly does isolating the Hazzel bandwagon help you?

[Mirth]

Yes, I again repeat my question. You then hammered, I probably would have agreed to hammer. And those would be the other four people still alive. So how exactly doe this help you?

[Mirth]

You misunderstand my question. The only people still alive are the people on that bandwagon. I just don't see how the bandwagon will narrow things down.

[Mirth]

Maybe Pooky hasn't had a chance to check yet. Also, the SK has been pretty much on deadline with his kills, so I think your previous guess about sending them in advance was probably right.

My opinion of who is what depends on what Xyzzy comes back as, since he's second on my list of who I think the SK is. (First, is still Kinetic. Mafiawise, I don't think MGM or Kinetic are mafia.)

[Mirth]

Heck, you and Mirth tried to quick-lynch me.

This is false. I unvoted you when Heather put you at L-1 specifically to avoid quicklynch. (and then just got really fed up with waiting for xyzzy.)

But I agree that hammering 3-4 days before deadline would definately raise a few eyebrows. If you hammered that early, you kill a few possible days of conversation. Only reason to do this is if you're either sure or stupid. Only two types of players can be sure: Mafia (they'd be sure of who their partners are), and SK (he'd be sure of who isn't him.) Early hammer would just be endless WIFOM for the town along these points.

Also,

mod: can you please prod Heather

And, MGM are you read to share yet?

[Mirth]

The only reason it would raise eyebrows would probably be because I raised those issues. Back then, pretty much all active posters apart from CKD and I were thirsty for blood.

Uh huh. This isn't true. CKD wanted Kinetic dead, and I was quite adament about avoiding about not voting too far ahead of the deadline.

[Mirth]

Hmm...not so sure what to think now. Since it's two dead inactive mafia members, I've looked over Hazzel's posts more closely for clues, and that hasn't helped my opinion much. Hazzel just spent most of his time alive attacking MGM, then disagreeing with Kinetic, then claiming to not understand Stewie. I'm thinking the attack on MGM being so early and fullblown was Hazzel just looking for an early lynch, so I don't think MGM is mafia. Hazzel's comments on Kinetic are a bit more disturbing (especially the part about calling him a liar but probably protown), but I don't think Kinetic is mafia either at this point. Stewie, I don't really have an opinion on, which is bad so far into the game. On one hand I'd wish he'd speak more, but on the other I don't see anything innately scummy about his playstyle, since seems to be everybody's main point of contention with him.

I'll do individual read throughs later if I'm still alive.

Kinetic, I'm not liking that you're practically asking the SK to kill Heather. I'll like some more input from her, so I'll again ask:

Mod, can we please get a prod on Heather?

And my still outstanding question to MGM:

Why did you unvote CKD early in the game?

[Mirth]

MGM, I'm not sure I understand your first point. Also, could you please answer my question.

Raffles, I asked you a question a while back that you never got around to answering. I forgot about it but MGM just reminded me.

Raffles, you said in post 103 that you didn't get your PM until 3 posts after starting. 3 posts after the game started or after you checked in?

[Mirth]

Ahhhh okay. I wasn't sure what that was refering to.

[Mirth]

MGM: does that mean you thought I was mafia? I'm flattered.

General comment: I find it interesting how Kinetic's main mafia suspects keep dying at night. I'm not moving my vote anywhere yet because I know that if I moved my vote onto Kinetic, Heather would probably follow suit. I'm not completely satisfied with Heather's lack of playing, however.

[Mirth]

Kinetic, I doubt that if you were the SK you'd kill me just yet. Here's why: you had higher suspects on your mafia list, yet you're currently the highest on my SK list. I've been pretty vocal against you, and no one else pretty much. You kill me, eyebrows are raised as to why. Your best bet with me would be to work on my "better safe than sorry stance."

Now as for MGM, you wouldn't want to do that either. MGM doesn't seem to think you're the SK at all. You've done a pretty good job of tying yourself to him. You kill MGM, the person least likely to vote for you, you're in more danger.

So Raffles was a sound night kill choice. It would have had to be him, Stewie, or Heather. Now, however, that all the mafia are dead, I know that either MGM or I am fair game. Why, I won't say, but if you think about it and jump into the deep end of possible WIFOM it makes sense.

Now then, as to my suspicion. While Heather and Stewie bother me, due to lack of contribution, I'm more disturbed by you and MGM.

[Mirth]

So by those criteria, Heather, who do you think is most likely the SK.

[Mirth]

Hmm...that is an interesting, though unorthodox possibility. But if you were the SK and you waited for that, and you became the person at L-1, it'd be too risky.

[Mirth]

Argh, sorry for not being able to check yesterday. Mountain of stuff came up.

Heather: Why discount Stewie?

On D3sisted's death: Kinetic brought up the cover-up idea first and has been buddying up to MGM since.

On Kinetic's arguments against Stewie: I agree with Stewie that the SK doesn't in fact know who the mafia were until they died. The only privilidged information he has is that he must kill everyone else. No more. Scum lynches should only be looked at as lynches at this moment since we now lack mafia.

Heather: I would actually like a scum list from you now.

Kinetic: your point about the SK tying himself to people doesn't make sense.

As for voting, I agree about the lynch. I'm going to vote now, but ask that noone hammers until closer to deadline.

vote:Kinetic

[Mirth]

I don't understand why, MGM. Stewie just called Kinetic out on crap!logic, since Kinetic was basically on those very same lynches. As I understand it Kinetic's main argument against Stewie if "you seemingly lurk (if Stewie is on limited access, I don't see how this is valid) and you only post when you're attacking people." While I don't like Stewie's method of gameplay, I dont see anything innately evil about it. While I'm not a fan of lurking, he's not doing it to a degree where I think it's significant enough to be a scum tell. Frankly, I'm much more concerned about Kinetic and you.

[Mirth]

Ah, I see, we're refering to two different parts of that post. You're mor concerned with the second part, where Stewie says that the SK would have wanted to lynch a townie, and the fact the he was on scum bandwagons makes him more likely to be town, right?

I paid more attention to the first part, since I don't think anything justifies the SK wanted to have killed a townie at that point. (I'm functioning under the assumption that the mafia being dead now is better for the SK than if one mafia person were still alive, because all the SK has to do now is hide, as opposed to hide and guess who is mafia). I still think Stewie has a point in Kinetic's logic sucking, though I disagree with both of them about it being better for the SK if a townie died.

[Mirth]

I don't like that Mgm is condemning everyone who doesn't vote by deadline. As he said, if we lynch wrong, the SK wins. I'm all for a scum lynch, but not just any lynch before deadline

You're wrong. MGM is correct in pushing a lynch here. We have five players wrong. That's a 1/5 chance of lynching correctly. If we lynch today and don't hit the SK, we basically lose 2 townies. So tomorrow there's a 1/3 chance.

If we don't lynch today, we lose a townie overnight, so tomorrow is a 1/4 chance of lynching correctly, which is worse odds. A mislynch would then also result in a loss.

Even if we mislynch at this point, we get information.

Now then, I don't agree with MGM's choice of suspects, but that's a different point entirely.

As to Stewie: I don't think that non-town lynches make him any less suspicious as the SK (I think the SK is better off now then with a living mafia member), but I do wholeheartedly agree that Kinetic's attack on him is baseless. and that a sucessful mafia lynch proves nothing in regards to scumminess.

[Mirth]

Oh, and for the record, before I forget, Kinetic, since you were bragging about your mafia lynches, your argument is even more crap!logicy because you condemn Stewie for doing exactly what you did.

[Mirth]

MGM, I am voting, just not for who you apparently think I should be voting for. I realize that Stewie is a L-1, but my vote isn't going to be moving (except maybe to you), because I don't think the case against him is sufficient to merit a lynch.

If you want votes, you should probably be addressing Stewie and Heather.

[Mirth]

EBWOP^ addressing Stewie and Heather in particular

[Mirth]

I'd like to hear more from Heather before I consider moving my vote (as I still have another 12 hours or so to consider that). I agree that a lynch is good, but I don't want to lynch someone who I don't really suspect (I will do it if it becomes necessary, but I don't want to).

Other than that, I have a feeling that I'll be the mostly likely night kill, and it will come down to you, Kinetic, and Heather. I will reiterate that I don't think Stewie is the SK, and am leaning toward thinking that Heather isn't.

[Mirth]

I don't like how Heather just jumped on after Stewie jumped on, but MGM is number two on my scum list.

So I'm going to

Unvote: Kinetic

and

vote:MGM

, though I do not like Heather's wagon jump. I also do not expect to survive tonight.

[Mirth]

And damnit, I just misread Sunday for Saturday. Crap. Apologies for this.

[Mirth]

Argh. Again, I'm horribly sorry about that. (Last time I'm checking games in a state of exhaustion. Darn reading comprehension.) Though MGM was second on my list of suspicion. I guess waiting for the SK kill would probably be the best option now.

[Mirth]

I'm not liking this whole waiting for the other shoe to drop thing. I'm going to do a partial reread for voting and kill patterns.

[Mirth]

I'm bolding votes by players still alive. Italics for daykills

1: Pooky announces game start on Aug 11, 8:01 am

2: Kinetic joke-votes Pooky

3: CKD votes Heatherlou
4: MGM votes d3sisted

6: I vote Kinetic

7: D3sisted votes MGM

8:Heather votes Stewie

9: Stewie votes Ninja/xyzzy

12: D3sisted daykilled on Aug 12, 9:52 am

(About a 24 hour window for first kill.)

13: CKD unvotes Heather, votes DeepSouth
14: MGM votes CKD

23: Kinetic votes MGM

30/31: I unvote Kinetic, vote MGM

32: Deepsouth votes Raffles

33: Heather unvotes Stewie, votes M4yhem

40: CKD unvotes Deepsouth, votes Hazzel
50: Deepsouth unvotes Raffles
53: M4yhem votes me
57: CKD unvotes Hazzel
89: Hazzel votes MGM
90: MGM unvotes CKD
100: CKD votes MGM

123: Stewie votes Hazzel

127: Kinetic votes Hazzel

138: Raffle votes MGM
139: Raffles unvotes MGM

150: M4yhem is daykilled on Aug 19, 10:14 pm
157: MGM votes Ninja/xyzzy

190: I unvote MGM

199: Kinetic unvotes Hazzel

213: MGM votes Hazzel
214: Raffles votes Stewie

234: Kinetic votes Hazzel

244: Deepsouth is daykilled on Aug 26 9:46 pm

265: Heather votes Hazzel

267: CKD unvotes MGM
281: Raffles unvotes Stewie
294: CKD votes Kinetic
300: MGM unvotes Hazzel, votes CKD

301: I vote Kinetic
303: Kinetic unvotes, votes CKD

353: Raffles votes Hazzel

354: Kinetic unvotes CKD, votes Hazzel

361: MGM votes Hazzel Hammervote on Sept 1, 4:23 am

372: Hazzel is lynched and CKD is daykilled on Sept 1, 8:46 pm

(I am not on this bandwagon, but expressed intention to vote Hazzel)

374: I vote Kinetic

379: Raffles votes Kinetic
390: MGM votes Raffles

393: Kinetic votes Heather

408: I unvote Kinetic

420: I vote Kinetic

422: Heather votes Kinetic

423: I unvote Kinetic

446: MGM unvotes Raffles, votes Xyzzy

457: Kinetic unvotes Heather, votes Xyzzy

475: I vote Xyzzy
486: Stewie votes Xyzzy Hammer vote on Sept 7, 5:21 pm

522: Xyzzy is lynched on Sept 9, 4:45 am

(Heather is not on this bandwagon)

533: Raffles is daykilled on Sept 9 1:06 pm

(I will conjecture there is about a 9 hour window of oppurtunity for the kill to have been sent in here)

538: MGM votes Heather

558: Kinetic votes Stewie

564: I vote Kinetic

574: MGM unvotes Heather, votes Stewie

585: Stewie votes MGM
586: Heather votes MGM
590: I vote MGM. This is a hammer on Sept 14, 7:50 pm.

(this is a really stupid move on my part. I need to learn how to read.

592: MGM is lynched on Sept 15, 3:15 am

(Kinetic is not on this bandwagon. There is no need to wait for MGM's role to be confirmed for the SK. I'm assuming the kill was not sent in because the SK a) did not see my vote before Pooky did and b) the SK did not expect me to hammar that quickly)

Now then I'm going to do a second post focusing on L-1 votes and windows of oppurtunity

[Mirth]

L-1/hammer analysis for living players only

Day 1:

Heather's post 265 is an L-1 vote on Hazzel
Kinetic's post 354 is an L-1 vote on Hazzel

Day 2:

Heather puts Kinetic at L-1 with post 422
I put Xyzzy at L-1 with post 475
Stewie hammers Xyzzy with post 486

Day 3:

Heather puts MGM at L-1 with post 586
I hammer MGM with post 590


Windows of oppurtunity analysis with Raffles and MGM (since I think the daykills before Raffles were predecided, and I think that the SK didn't see my hammer vote on MGM before Pooky's post (meta-gaming style):

Xyzzy is lynched on Sept 9, 4:45 am
Raffles is daykilled on Sept 9, 1:06 pm

Pooky's only two posts for the day, so the window can't be made any smaller.
Stewie's first post on this day is at 11:35 pm, latest at 11:58 pm.
No posts for Heather on Sept 9. Post on Sept 10 citing loss of internet. Post before then on Sept 7.
Kinetic posted from 12:14 am to 11:11 pm pretty consistently with posts in the window of oppurtunity.
I posted between 6:36 am and 10:57 pm. Definately in window of oppurtunity


MGM is lynched on Sept 15, 3:15 am

Pooky posted between post 3:14 am and 5:18 am
Stewie posted on Sept 14, 5:58 pm (before my hammer) and at 11:19 (in another thread after my hammer).
Heather post on 6:14 pm Sept 14, and at 6:04 and 6:08 pm Sept 15.
Kinetic posted between 12:53 am and 5:04 am on Sept 15, with multiple posts after my hammer and before Pooky's lynch announcement. I hammered. Obviously had a chance to pm Pooky here.

One last bit of metagaming, back to D3sisted's daykill:
Pooky posted from 8:01 am Aug 11 to 7:51 pm Aug 11. She then posted the kill t 9:52 am Aug 12. I will assume here the kill came in after 7:51 pm Aug 11
Stewie posted between 12:32 pm Aug 11 and 3:31 pm Aug 12
Heather posted between 10:26 pm Aug 11 and 7:44 pm Aug 12
Kinetic posted between 8:50 am Aug 11 and 11:58 am Aug 12
I posted between 12:23 am Aug 11 and 12:49 pm Aug 12.

Now then, this metagaming means nothing on it's own. I'm just curious what all of your thoughts on it are (hopefully before the SK strikes).

[Mirth]

PS: I should mention that I don't think a lack of posts signifies not being around to see things.

[Mirth]

Kinetic, I realize that my move was stupid as hell, but it was based on mistaking Sunday for Saturday in an exhausted state, but I also realize that isn't a very convincing defense. If I die, I suggest to the remaining townies to look very closely at my last few posts. (And to shut up about them until the kill occurs, just needed to get them in, in case of me dying.) At this moment, I'm going to have to say that it shouldn't be hard to guess whom I suspect, based on all my past behavior. I also don't expect to live, as I've been the biggest threat to Kinetic so far, and it would be more than reasonable to assume that's what I'd continue to do.

[Mirth]

Kinetic, three pieces of advice:

1. Don't forget about Heather. She's still alive too.
2. Actually read my vote analysis posts.
3. Shut up. You might be giving the SK ideas now.

The more you accuse people right now, the better it is for the SK (assuming you're not the SK for a second). The SK probably hasn't killed yet because he wants to see who suspects whom and what kill would be most confusing for the town.

I'm not going to let you off the hook, because I feel that stoping my "one woman crusade" against you would be very stupid at this point. I'm also not going to talk anymore until the SK kills someone. I suggest you do the same.

[Mirth]

I will once again say this: all of you, be quiet. You're just making the SK's job easier right now. Kinetic, I once more urge you to actually read 597 and 598. Also, please take note of Heather's last comment, especially in the context of where we are right now. But most importantly, stop arguing. There are a couple ways this can pan out, and only one of those has a good possibility of a town win. The less said about it, the better. Just wait for the kill now. That should make a lot of things clear.

[Mirth]

Congratulations Kinetic. ^_^

It's a very good thing I died, as I was more suspicious of Heather than Stewie, honestly, due to Heather's total lack of content. (Only thing in her favor was the not being there for the daykill.) I figured out Kinetic wasn't the SK shortly before lynching MGM, but I didn't want to let on to that (note the indirect wording of all post-MGM-lynch anti-Kinetic posts and my emphatic pointing to my lynch/daykill analysis). I was hoping for the SK (I wasn't sure if it was Stewie or Heather, only that it wasn't Kinetic) to keep both me and Kinetic alive to make the choice very easy, but I guess the emphatic pointing was too obvious ^_^

[Mirth]

...yeah...about that...why the heck didn't one of your partners play at all?