DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ


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Post Post #3455 (isolation #200) » Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:51 am

Post by mastina »

In post 3426, Cheetory6 wrote:Like, you would think you might be like "oh well maybe my reads aren't perfect" after you made a misstep.
You didn't read the wall I made yesterday on the subject.

Part of me constantly and consistently reassessing the reads and throwing out the little stuff and focusing on the probabilities is related to this. In that when I am wrong. It's not really me having been wrong. I had thoughts of Something_smart being scum. I cast them out. I discarded them. I made the call that they were incorrect. Yet I had them all the same.

In EVERY game I play, I am both right on EVERY player...
...And WRONG on every player.
Because at some point in the game, I will have cast each player as both alignments.

So no flip surprises me.

None.

Absolutely none. (LEAST of all, someone who was nulltown! Something_smart was literally JUST above null on my list.)

And all my reads are made independently of one another.
So while I may make interactions to strengthen my reads, I do not rely on them in the least. My reads are all formed by themselves. So when someone flips against what I thought, it does absolutely NOTHING to alter my reads whatsoever. Because...well, no shit. My reads were formed independently of one another, so my other reads still stand, unless I have damn good reason to think otherwise.

I have damn good reason to think otherwise on some of my reads. For instance, the change in UT, with him having skyrocketed from second-strongest scumread (the point he was lowest at) to one of my never-touching-ever townreads. That's new information painting a new read. There is no such information to cause a change in SAD. Quite the contrary, all the new information has done is
strengthened
my SAD read because nothing SAD has done makes me think he's a Something_smart scumbuddy; everything SAD has done makes me think that he's town.
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Post Post #3457 (isolation #201) » Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:54 am

Post by mastina »

In post 3439, Spiffeh wrote:Her recent answer does not satisfy me
Well too bad.

SAD at this point is people's assumed lynch.
I am not getting nightkilled.

I will live to see D3.

I have a nuke.

I have stated many times my intent to nuke LLD.

Unless one of these changes, there is NOTHING I gain by elaborating on LLD today.
When I can just speak with my actions (much louder than words) tomorrow.
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Post Post #3460 (isolation #202) » Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:03 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3458, Cheetory6 wrote:I don't think I ever see you do that.
You say you read the post and yet you still say this.

If you actually read what I was saying then there's your answer.

The reason you don't see me reevaluate is because the reevaluation is a CONSTANT process going on in my head.
Literally every split fucking second I am focusing on the game I revisit thoughts.
On my head right now are the possibilities of GiF as town and SAD as scum, for instance, but fuck no I'm not going to actually SAY those things because they're things that I am focusing on which I will only share if my opinion actually
does
change. It's a complete and utter waste of time otherwise.

I still think SAD is town.
I still think GiF is scum.

I am investigating (mostly mentally but not entirely) the possibilities to the opposite, but if I finish doing that and still conclude SAD is town and GiF is scum...then me saying I am looking into the possibility of SAD as scum and GiF as town is just a waste of time, effort, and space, which will mislead people into thinking my ultimate reads are weaker than they really are. (Because sure, in the moment I am reconsidering SAD as town and GiF as scum, my reads are weaker...but then if the reads are reaffirmed, then they are just as strong if not stronger than before, and yet people have little to no indication of this and will erroneously point to my doubt as "proof" that my read was weaker than what I intended it to be. Especially scum working to discredit me after I die.)
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Post Post #3467 (isolation #203) » Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:14 pm

Post by mastina »

Fun exercise time:
Dual iso GiF and Something_smart.
DON'T try and cheat by using control-F. Manually read every post the two make especially about each other.
It'll take a little bit of time, I'll admit.

But take careful note of their interactions with one another throughout the whole game.

Especially in reference to the leaked messages we have available.

It really looks like a preplanned bussing routine. GiF didn't suddenly change tune after Something_smart's claim.
GiF's response after the claim? , and continuing a stream of identical posting.

Also, in scummy reversal times:
GiF knew that Something_smart was scum D1. He had been pressing Something_smart as being scum on D1.
During that time, he said that SAD was town.
Literally strewn across GiF's entire iso (go fucking search for yourself if you don't believe me) is, "SAD is town. S_S isn't. Let's lynch S_S."

Yet today, for some INEXPLICABLE reason, with no given justification, he has taken a HARD 180 into "SAD is S_S's scumbuddy".
Why the change?
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Post Post #3487 (isolation #204) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:32 pm

Post by mastina »

First off, I was writing this post at the time you guys decided to be assholes and hammer SAD, so the topic got locked before I could post it. All the same, I wrote it so even though it holds no relevance tough luck. You get to have the post anyway.
In post 3461, Cheetory6 wrote:If everyone in the game was telling me my strongest townread was scum. I pushed someone as scum. And that person flipped town.
Or
if I called someone town and that person flipped scum. I would then feel a lot of doubt for a read that everyone else was also feeling was wrong.
You're conflating Something_smart with SAD here.
SAD is my strongest townread.
Something_smart was a nulltownread.
I fought against the Something_smart wagon, even dismantling it via semi-intentionally drawing attention to myself.
Fuck, I even PM'd the mod saying, "If Something_smart flips scum, I'm going to look like a complete and total idiot for this". (You can read the message yourself when you die, I believe it was the last one I sent on D1.)

But he wasn't that strong of a townread. I thought he was more likely to be town than not.
He was not someone I was gonna bank the game on being town.
I also thought he would not claim to have the cop if he did not have it, as that would be POINTLESSLY suicidal: the cop has a doc on them unless scum nabbed the power, and we now know the scumteam does NOT have the roleblocker. So I was in firm objection to lynching an uncounterclaimed cop, no fucking duh.

But circumstances changed. I still hold that it makes no sense for the scum to sacrifice a member to out a role they cannot get rid of. So I still hold that GiF is suspect as a result.

But the two are entirely different.

SAD is my strongest townread, and there are MANY reasons for this.
Something_smart was a circumstantial townread: things happened which made him look more likely to be town than not, but they were small things here and there. I pretty explicitly said I hadn't even read his posts! So no shit my read on him wasn't strong. I wasn't even paying attention to him. I was paying attention to other stuff.

The two cannot be compared.
you're not at odds with your reads as a result of anything anyone else is saying, it's only the thoughts you alone are having regarding them.
If you were paying attention to my posts, you would have noticed this is explicitly wrong.

Who do you think it was that caused me to think, "Maybe I'm wrong about GiF?" It wasn't me. On D1 someone posted suspicion on GiF. I could be mistaken, but I think I may have actually been
minorly suspicious
of the person who had done so...yet EVEN IN SPITE OF THAT. I took their suspicion seriously. And here today, who do you think it was that made me think maybe I was wrong on GiF? I forget who it was who posted reasons why GiF could be town, but damn right I took them seriously.

Just because I don't acknowledge a post doesn't mean I don't read it. Just because I don't acknowledge a post doesn't mean I don't take it seriously. I do. And I take it all into consideration. I rerun my calculations. I redo the probabilities. I take their words, and try to see if maybe, just maybe, they are valid. And from those, I make...well actually. The vast majority of the changes to my lists. Most of the changes aren't because I reevaluated off of already-existing posts. Most of the changes are because of what people say about other people, and me mentally taking into consideration their words: do their words come from town or scum? And REGARDLESS of town or scum, is what they're saying valid or invalid?


Now, second of all. As promised.
In post 3424, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I get the sense as I depart my computer that mastina's sudden flurry of activity is more or less motivated to derail the righteous SAD lynch.
Hey.
Hey Magna.

What do you think of your glorious crusade now?

When I tell you someone is my fucking strongest townread and not to fucking lynch them because they WILL be flipping town.
Maybe, juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust maybe.
You should recognize that they are my fucking STRONGEST townread and will be flipping town. Because while I can and will be wrong about my townreads. I am NEVER fucking wrong about my absolute STRONGEST townread.


Now, third off.

Hey, Everyone
.
Remember how I said I was going to nuke LLD?

I lied.

LLD was never going to be my nuke, LEAST of all come D2 where I was biting my tongue trying to hide the fact that I had gained a townread on her overnight thanks to the Something_smart scumflip. (Yes, Something_smart flipping scum made me instantly think LLD was town.)

When I entered into the game, and here's the neat part.
I had basically a three-step plan.

Step one: shitpost. Deceive. Mislead. Let people see me as trash. This way, town would ignore me. If scum paid attention to me in spite of this, then that would be a BIG FUCKING DEAL. If the scum didn't pay attention to me, all the better.

I knew this was a risk: ticking people off could have gotten me lynched. I also knew that even if I didn't get lynched, I was putting my reputation on the line. People see shitposting, they assume shitty player. So future games of mine could have been tainted by the gambit.

Step two: In spite of my shitposting, communicate my alignment to enough key areas that I could generate useful content. Get enough people focused on me, and I'd be a sounding board of sorts, where content would bounce back and forth and materialize. From this process, I would generate reads on players, based around their psychological profiles.

Some players make more sense as doing certain things. For instance, Cephrir trying to figure me out was town. GuyInFreezer writing me off was scum. (And no. I did not call GiF a terrorist, nor did I call him stupid, as he so claims. I did however call him both smart, and scum.) From here, with my reads communicated, I would have furthered my agenda, but there'd be a problem:

Nobody listens to a shitposter. Which is why I knew I needed further deception. (This is one reason why the valuable information roles, cop and eavesdropper, were top picks of mine.)

Enter step three: the reveal, where we are at.
I was never intending to nuke LLD.
I had a scumread on her D1, sure. And that scumread vanished D2, sure. But I was always going to nuke somebody else, and this is why: because the scum would THINK I was going to nuke LLD.

If LLD were scum, then they would sabotage my nukes. This would be confirmed the moment I tried to launch nukes, so we'd get a free LLD lynch from it.

HOWEVER.

If LLD were town, then the scum would WANT me to nuke her. This would be confirmed the moment I tried to launch nukes and they weren't sabotaged. Because town nuking town is exactly what the scum want.

And therein lies the trap.
If my nukes successfully launch, Lady Lambdadelta is town as I currently believe.
If my nukes were sabotaged, then LLD is probably scum.
This is the reason why I was tip-toeing about answering on LLD being absent from my reads, all evasive and whatnot: because while everything I said was true, this plan HINGED on the scum not picking up on my plan. It relied on them thinking I was going to do exactly as I said I was going to do, so I couldn't let the truth out even though I wanted to.

In short...do you remember when GreyICE described my reads inversion process and I told him he was right?
This is how he was right.

I have four scumreads: Ircher, GiF, RC, and Zito.
I can't nuke Ircher because he almost assuredly nabbed an anti-nuke defense.
I can't nuke GiF because he's the fucking cop even if he is a rotten Russian dirty scumbag.
So the question I asked myself D2 mostly but also on D1 was which of RC/Zito to light up.

Now I typed this during the night, immediately after the SAD mislynch.
So I won't know the results of the night. I might be forced to revise my plans come morning.
But if nothing changes...

NUKE: Papa Zito!


If by the time you read this, nukes are headed my way, I'll put up a full readslist with reasons for everyone to see, but that's a task for the morning, after I get the flips from the night to work with, not something to do in advance.

I
told
you I had a plan!
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Post Post #3492 (isolation #205) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:38 pm

Post by mastina »

The Spiffeh kill changes little.
Now, cross referencing lists though:
In post 3410, mastina wrote:The fully list of players I'd say qualify for that are SpyreX, Papa Zito, probably Red Coyote, probably MagnaofIllusion, maybe Equinox (so, Nukebringer), Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, I'd qualify myself as included (YMMV), GuyInFreezer, Reck, GreyICE, and probably Cephrir too.
The players I'd expect to kill Fate, and then kill Spiffeh, are much more narrow.
In fact, Nukebringer is the player I would most strongly associate with a Spiffeh kill, because if any of these players have prior history with Spiffeh I'm not familiar with it.

I mean it does tell me not all four of my scumreads can be right.
But Spiffeh is not the trolling scum, so there's still a troll on the scumteam.
And Spiffeh is not the codemaking scum, so there's still a codemaker on the scumteam.
So I hold those reads to be (mostly) true.

And,
VOTE: Red Coyote.
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Post Post #3504 (isolation #206) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:44 pm

Post by mastina »

Troll players:
SpyreX, Zito, Nukebringer (Firebringer), McMenno, LLD could for strategic reasons (otherwise no), UT, maybe-GIF, probably-Reck, possibly-GreyICE (not likely), Ircher.

Possible code writers:
SpyreX (doubtful), Red Coyote, MoI, Nukebringer (Equinox), LLD, GiF, maybe-Reck, Errant, probably-GreyICE, Nahdia.

Add or subtract as you see fit.
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Post Post #3509 (isolation #207) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:46 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3503, Nukebringer wrote:
In post 3500, Ircher wrote:Who should we nuke?
Why are you asking this question when this is the first phase where we can display true American individualism and nuke whoever we want?
Hint: because he's scum.

Especially with posts like this:
In post 3502, Ircher wrote:Also, didnt scum have a kill too? Whered it go?
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Post Post #3517 (isolation #208) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:49 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3506, Nukebringer wrote:My heart says nuke LLD to the ground, but equinox told me not to :(
Aside from the fact that the mod confirmed my launch was successful (which is a strong indicator LLD is town), LLD changed to a hard townread the moment Something_smart flipped Russian.

LLD was already posting things which were making me doubt my scumread on the later parts of D1, but in particular, the way she hard-defended Something_smart did NOT seem like something I scumbuddy would ever do.

Furthermore, her posting on D2 was much stronger as well.

I mean, I could be wrong, here.

But I don't think this is how she plays as scum, especially not when I had deliberately been painting a nuke target on her head.
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Post Post #3521 (isolation #209) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:52 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3519, Nukebringer wrote:Why aren't you in the list of troll players?
I don't include myself in lists.
Except when I do.
Probably as a troll.
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Post Post #3527 (isolation #210) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:53 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3522, Nukebringer wrote:you suck at trolling.
I think we established this long ago. :P
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Post Post #3536 (isolation #211) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:57 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3530, GreyICE wrote:HEY MASTINA I TRUMPED YOUR SHITTY PLAN WITH MY EXCELLENT PLAN
WANNA KNOW WHAT THAT WAS?
I mean, I admit you've piqued my interest, but really my answer doesn't honestly change much since this is a rhetorical question and whatever you will or will not do, you're going to do it regardless of what I say, so.
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Post Post #3546 (isolation #212) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:01 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3537, GuyInFreezer wrote:I tried to confirm it yesterday when SAD got lolhammered but mastina non-russianslipped.
One, whose fault was it that SAD got lolhammered anyway (if this is true hey guess what you could have, you know, UNVOTED to keep the lynch from happening!),
And two: I call bullshit on me townslipping.

I am extremely self-aware.

I've townposted plenty, sure.

But in my end of D2 posting, there was jacksquat that could be considered a townslip.
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Post Post #3559 (isolation #213) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:05 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3549, GuyInFreezer wrote:Non-russian slip != townslip
Also I was actually voting SAD independent of MoI's case on him.
Non-russian slip = townslip given my view on SK play. (Which is very well known to be just a vig.) And furthermore, that's sidestepping the issue.

You called SAD town on D1. Not once--consistently. Literally every mention of him on D1 was about how town he was.
You reversed your stance on him on D2 without any given reason.
And then, furthermore: you could have unvoted him to stop a lolhammer, in order to "confirm" this townslip of mine. Yet you let the day end.
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Post Post #3572 (isolation #214) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:13 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3558, Nahdia wrote:
In post 3478, Andrius wrote:Ser Arthur Dayne [12] - MagnaofIllusion, RedCoyote, Vaxkiller, hiplop, GuyInFreezer, Lady Lambdadelta, xRECKONERx, Cephrir, Nahdia, Ircher, GreyICE, McMenno
there's probably some scum in here, since it was a town wagon with an v justifiable vote.
No fucking shit. It's almost like I said this yesterday!
In post 3445, mastina wrote:Whereas most of the strongest (read: people actually making cases against) SAD wagoners are players who were advocating for Something_smart's death on D1: arrogance born of being right. And this is a lynch which is arrogance born of being right, with a side of
some blatantly scum players sheeping
because the players who are arrogant are too blind to notice
how atrociously bad the sheeps are. (For instance, read Ircher's reason for joining this wagon.
)
OH WAIT. I DID.

Let's take a look at which names stand out...
In post 3478, Andrius wrote:Ser Arthur Dayne [12] - MagnaofIllusion,
RedCoyote
, Vaxkiller, hiplop,
GuyInFreezer
, Lady Lambdadelta, xRECKONERx, Cephrir, Nahdia,
Ircher
, GreyICE, McMenno
hiplop is an innocent result: I buy that as accurate.
MoI was anything BUT a sheep, and is almost assuredly town.
Vaxkiller I strongly believe to be town.
Cephrir was one of the few NON-sheep votes.
You I also feel are town.

That leaves a pool of... RedCoyote/GuyInFreezer/LLD/Reck/GreyICE/Ircher/McMenno.
McMenno's lolhammer I do not think came from scum, but this is not strong.
LLD I currently am not scumreading especially with the night's events.
Reck is someone I think IF he's scum it'd be terrorist.
GreyICE is a townread both from scum chat content and from his play yesterday.

Which gives us...oh yeah. RedCoyote, GIF, and Ircher.

That's not going to be all three scum, sad as it is to say, because yeah no way are 3/4 of the scum on the SAD wagon so blatantly like that; I'm not that good.

But guarantee you, at least one if not two of them will flip scum.
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Post Post #3580 (isolation #215) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:17 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3563, Ircher wrote:mastina, if you scumread me so much AND feel that a nuke would be wasted on me, why ARENT you voting me?
I only have one vote.
I've got it split between you and RedCoyote.
In post 3566, GuyInFreezer wrote:
In post 3559, mastina wrote:Non-russian slip = townslip given my view on SK play. (Which is very well known to be just a vig.)
I'm not mastina nor I want to be mastina.
Still side-stepping the issue: instead of unvoting to see if the slip was legit, you let the day end prematurely.
In post 3559, mastina wrote:You reversed your stance on him on D2 without any given reason.
Yeah so?
...So reversing your stance on SAD, who was a strong townread, for no fucking reason, and joining his CONSIDERABLY LARGE WAGON, for no fucking reason, is...a super fucking scummy thing to do? This is self-evident.
You could've warned that he was nearing the lynch but did you?
I was writing a long post. TWO votes happened in that time. Or was it three? I was in no position to. I was already fighting the lynch with my words.
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Post Post #3584 (isolation #216) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:18 pm

Post by mastina »

VOTE: Ircher.
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Post Post #3597 (isolation #217) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:23 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3587, Nahdia wrote:p-edit i can be down with an ep murder at some point
I mean it's not the worst lynch in the world.
Errant's no townread.
In fact, Errant's south of null.

Unfortunately I don't think the things GreyICE has pointed out are alignment indicative even though they probably should be.

I'd just assume someone nuke Errant to save us the lynch.

Ircher is someone we almost assuredly can't nuke, whereas Errant we probably can.
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Post Post #3608 (isolation #218) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:28 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3599, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 3597, mastina wrote:
In post 3587, Nahdia wrote:p-edit i can be down with an ep murder at some point
Ircher is someone
we almost assuredly can't nuke,
whereas Errant we probably can.
Why?
Ircher posted his draft picks.

All three of the anti-nuke powers were on it, and not low, either. Strategic Missile Defense = Ircher can intercept the missile. Fallout shelter = Ircher survives. Covert Ops Team = he sabotaged a nuke.

All three were his top choices.

We know that all powers are at play because I didn't get any.
So that means he got one.

Ergo, we can't nuke him.
We CAN lynch him.
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Post Post #3610 (isolation #219) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:29 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3600, GreyICE wrote:They're extremely alignment indicative.
The problem is I think Errant's done it before as town.
So.
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Post Post #3613 (isolation #220) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:30 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3607, GuyInFreezer wrote:Also can I say that I'm very disappointed with my results so far?
GEE I WONDER WHY THAT WOULD BE.
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Post Post #3627 (isolation #221) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:36 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3611, McMenno wrote:
In post 1254, Spiffeh wrote:People I don't want nuked this phase under any circumstance: {Accountant, Cheetory6, MoI,
Papa Zito
, Cephrir, Reck, SpyreX}
People I think are town but not enough to warrant being in the first group: {LLD, hiplop, mastina, SAD, McMenno,
RedCoyote
}
People I wouldn't mind seeing get nuked: {Untrod Tripod, Fate, GreyICE, Nahdia,
Something_Smart
, ErrantParabola,
Ircher
}
People that need to be lynched/nuked at the earliest opportunity: {
GIF
, Vaxkiller, Nukebringer}
I'm hoping the lynch phase will help me sort people in the third pile
Especially EP because I feel like I can actually get a definitive read there if they would actually post
if papa zito isn't scum then what? seems unlikely that his top tier.kek is all town
Cross that bridge when we come to it. We'll know Zito's alignment in 48 hours.
Also, just pointing out......

(Look at the lynched list. Nukebringer will be flipping not-Russian in less than 48 hours. Vaxkiller is almost assuredly town. That leaves GIF.
In the town group, hiplop has the cop innocent result on him. The possible scum there are therefore LLD/McMenno/RedCoyote. Guess who I'm putting my stock on. It's possible to find two scumbuddies in the third, middle category. We can assume not UT. I don't think it's GreyICE nor do I suspect Nahdia. So that leaves Errant/Ircher as the possibilities for scum there if there's a second in the category. Meaning, dueling wagons between Ircher and Errant...aren't such a bad idea.)
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Post Post #3639 (isolation #222) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:45 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1254, Spiffeh wrote:People I don't want nuked this phase under any circumstance: {Accountant, Cheetory6, MoI, Papa Zito, Cephrir, Reck, SpyreX}
People I think are town but not enough to warrant being in the first group: {LLD, hiplop, mastina, SAD, McMenno, RedCoyote}
People I wouldn't mind seeing get nuked: {Untrod Tripod, Fate, GreyICE, Nahdia, Something_Smart, ErrantParabola, Ircher}
People that need to be lynched/nuked at the earliest opportunity: {GIF, Vaxkiller, Nukebringer}
I'm hoping the lynch phase will help me sort people in the third pile
Especially EP because I feel like I can actually get a definitive read there if they would actually post
^Basically, what I'm saying here is:
If Spiffeh bussed anyone, the only possible name there is GuyInFreezer. (Nukebringer will be flipping non-Russian, and Vaxkiller is town.)
Untrod Tripod is town for many reasons, the S_S wagon D1 among them. Fate is killed town. Nahdia and GreyICE are both townreads--if you disagree with them, you should have reason to speak up.

Something_smart flipped scum in there. Errantparabola and Ircher are both listed. If you think that there is a second scumbuddy listed in there (which is a STRONG probability), then their deaths should be a top priority.

In the "town but not town enough" group, hiplop is a cop innocent. SAD flipped town. I am town. So in here, which there VERY probably is a scumbuddy in, you have LLD/McMenno/RedCoyote as candidates. I personally don't think it's LLD/McMenno and do think it's RC.

In the strong town group, there is a strong chance of one scum, but probably no more. If Zito flips scum, the rest are town. If Zito flips town, then we probably have a scum in there...but that's not something I want to tackle. If you think you know who in there is scum, feel free to speak up about it.

That's why GiF, Errant, Ircher, and RedCoyote are all priorities for me right now.
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Post Post #3641 (isolation #223) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:51 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 559, Andrius wrote:FOR TOTAL WAR [17] - SpyreX, MagnaofIllusion, Untrod Tripod, Nukebringer, McMenno, Papa Zito, Spiffeh, GuyInFreezer, Errantparabola, Nahdia, Fate, mastina, hiplop, Accountant, Ser Arthur Dayne, Something_Smart, GreyICE
AGAINST TOTAL WAR [4] - xRECKONERx, Ircher, Cephrir, RedCoyote
Not Voting [3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Toogeloo, Cheetory6
^By the way, I still hold we had at least one scum vote against total war.

The reason I don't think it's Reckoner is because it took guts to do that: denying the game total war painted a target on his back.
While Reck's certainly a bold enough scum player where he could get away with that (and people would indeed pay him little heed for it), it still struck me as something that was more likely to come from town than from scum.

Now Ircher and RedCoyote, on the other hand......
(Cephrir's exempt because he's town.)
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Post Post #3647 (isolation #224) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:04 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1625, Andrius wrote:Vaxkiller [9] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, SpyreX,
Fate
,
Something_Smart
, Cheetory6, Cephrir,
Spiffeh
, Accountant, Papa Zito
Ser Arthur Dayne [2] - Lady Lambdadelta, Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola
Something_Smart [2] - Ircher, GuyInFreezer
Untrod Tripod [1] - xRECKONERx
Lady Lambdadelta [1] - mastina
First Vaxkiller wagon. Both flipped scum on it. If there was at all any doubt as to Vaxkiller's innocence, this should lay it to rest.
In post 1701, Andrius wrote:Vaxkiller [9] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, SpyreX,
Fate
, Cheetory6, Cephrir,
Spiffeh
, Papa Zito, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion
Untrod Tripod [5] - xRECKONERx, Ircher, Accountant, mastina,
Something_Smart

Ser Arthur Dayne [2] - Lady Lambdadelta, Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola
Something_Smart [1] - GuyInFreezer
Second peak of the Vaxkiller wagon. The UT wagon exists as a counter. There's Something_smart having switched: decent indicator both wagons were on town.

I'd prefer to wait until post-nukes to do anything more than this, though. Zito's color can change quite a lot in them.
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Post Post #3648 (isolation #225) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:06 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3643, GreyICE wrote:Once one player voted against total war isn't it entirely irrelevant?
The point exactly.
Why WOULD RedCoyote, for instance, vote against Total War when it was entirely irrelevant?
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Post Post #3651 (isolation #226) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:15 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3649, GreyICE wrote:Why vote for total war when it's irrelevant?
Why do anything in that phase of the game, the entire phase of the game was irrelevant
And yet, there was plenty of game content from then.

RedCoyote chose to cast a pointless vote.

He did it AFTER having delayed on the issue--delayed a
lot
.

Look at his content at the beginning of the game.

That phase of the game was anything but irrelevant.
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Post Post #3707 (isolation #227) » Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:04 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3695, Papa Zito wrote:
In post 3693, SpyreX wrote:If you're sub zito and you shot me I'm gonna be soo sad
1/2 ain't bad
If this is a hardclaim of sub and I get a guarantee that nuke's not headed for me (we're talking, my name disappears from the list, guarantee), I'll recall the nuke. There is no name in Reck/Ircher/RC who vigging would be bad, and submarine is quite frankly the
only
claim from you aside from missile silo I'd believe because I know for a fact you love the vig role.

But if that nuke's headed my way, fuck no I'm not recalling mine.
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Post Post #4069 (isolation #228) » Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:53 pm

Post by mastina »

Fuck I hope I'm not too late.
Recall Nuke
.

I pulled an all-nighter finishing my page for my comic, and then miscalculated the time on my timer.
I thought I set it to 2:30: plenty of time to wake up and post and get ready to leave.
I ended up waking up at 3:30--the time that I thought I was supposed to
arrive
at my staff meeting today. So I didn't have time to log into here, at all, even remotely; I was too busy panicking that I was going to be late.
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Post Post #4072 (isolation #229) » Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:59 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3733, Cephrir wrote:mastin how do you know the scum even have the sabotage ability?
Because it's something that they would have HIGH use for, which town players have virtually zero use for.

And we know that SOMEONE put it as a high priority, because if they didn't, I would have gotten it.

We've had two missile silo scum flips so far. How many more do you think we're likely to have? My bet is not many.
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Post Post #4097 (isolation #230) » Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:16 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3948, xRECKONERx wrote:#CancelTheNuke
For the record I'd endorse this.
We know the roleblocker isn't groupscum.

So Reck's either the serial killer, or town.
In either case: not the best nuke, when his block action is far more valuable to us.
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Post Post #4107 (isolation #231) » Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:23 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4014, Ircher wrote:I'd argue mastinas play is probably better than at least a third if not half or more of the playerlist.
Reminder: I'm voting you.

Also, SpyreX: from what I gather you claim to own the counterstrike team and sabotaged me.
I made it clear I was nuking LLD, who has...the fallout shelter. Which you yourself acknowledge.

Explain.
If you knew I was planning on nuking the person
immune to being nuked
, tell me.
Why on EARTH did you "waste" the sabotage on me?

(I mean granted this is a case where I wouldn't too terribly mind given that Zito's town, butstill.)
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Post Post #4118 (isolation #232) » Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:27 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4070, SpyreX wrote:Why would you do that and not prove what I said i swear to god
Because I read as I go along in the thread and the first thing I saw was Zito confirming his claim and the second thing I saw was the second nuclear sub launch and between those hell yeah I wanted to recall.
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Post Post #4119 (isolation #233) » Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:28 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4074, Ircher wrote:@Mastin -- Do you approve/disapprove of keeping Reck, the claimed RBer, alive?
I approve of keeping him alive but I also approve of lynching you the person who kept him alive.
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Post Post #4239 (isolation #234) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:23 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4123, xRECKONERx wrote:wait wtf who the fuck nuked zito
It was a choice of Zito or RC for me.
Both were about equal scumreads, though I admit RC was slightly stronger, however, reading the gamestate at the time, I was under the impression that if I tried to nuke RC, it would be intercepted and the person doing the interception wouldn't be called scum for it. Whereas by nuking Zito, I had a higher chance of the missile either going through, or an intercept meaning the interceptor would be scum.

But apparently it doesn't matter since SpyreX sabotaged me (and also Zito is very believably town if HE nuked RC like he said), so.
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Post Post #4240 (isolation #235) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:46 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4138, Nukebringer wrote:She has a point that there's a specific tone to them. While I don't think scum are above faking it to a certain extent, I highly doubt mastina's usual tone wouldn't leak at some point.
Actually, my point was multiple-fold.
One, the scum if they're at all smart, are altering their posting patterns. If they speak in all proper English (like I do...well, close enough to proper; I use punctuation and grammar to say the least), they'd probably take an all lowercase runon sentence speech pattern, for instance. If their normal IS said lowercase runon sentence, it doesn't take much effort for them to speak in proper English. (At least, presumably.)

Two, the scum have two very distinct patterns observable from the leaks: They have someone who is spamming the scum thread with random stuff which is utterly meaningless--the troll. While many players on here can troll, only a few specific players can troll in
that
particular way. So PoE is a powerful tool, there.
They also have someone who wrote the code and is actively using it--this is something which also fits only a few specific players. There's some overlap with the prior list, but this is likely a different person on the scumteam. And honestly I don't have Something_smart or Spiffeh as codewriters or for that matter trolls (Spiffeh could I suppose), so the trollposter is likely still alive at the moment.

Three, the main point I've made, is that in spite of the deliberate alterations to posting style and the efforts of writing code, the leaks could still potentially give away who the scum are...but that very specifically, it might not be so easy to do. For instance, in a mafia PT, sure, I'll normally ramble. I'll normally write notes to the dead apologizing for me being a terrible human being executing my master plan. In this game I'd just send the messages directly to Andrius via PM. (Which is one reason why people
aren't
automatically clearing me for mentioning sending the PMs. It's pretty obvious that I have, sure, but it's not something which is 100% undeniably beyond all shadow of a doubt town.)

So in the case of me, my writing style wouldn't really leak out.
You think I can't hide it, but I can. I'm a very prominent user of alts, after all. I have practice in writing every style you could possibly imagine. And while there are some things which give away that said alts are me (namely, the way I treat the game is
very
unique, plus that I usually have knowledge on said alts which affects how I treat people in the game), those things are not things which you can pick up on purely from a random selection of small snippets of a thread, LEAST of all one where a code has been deployed.

Plus, while I haven't really done this effectively in over a year (maybe two, actually, or even three; it's been a LONG time), I write my psychological profiles as scum in the pregame. That means I do ALL threat assessment then. Before eavesdropping is put into the game. As in, I will make a detailed list about each of the players: what I know about their history. (Are they an easy mislynch? Is it KNOWN they are an easy mislynch? Are they a good scumhunter? Are they CHARISMATIC when scumhunting? Are they easy to manipulate? Is it good or suicidal to try and get in a lengthy debate with them? Are they easy to work with? Are they a wildcard? Are they unpredictable? And in rare instances--basically the only slot I'd apply this to this game is Vaxkiller--are they an unknown to me.)

So basically, because I do all of my chat pregame, I wouldn't have much to say in the actual game itself, except for responding to scumbuddies and updating my pregame profiles with new info. (And honestly some of the leaks in there actually
support
that. Referencing prior posts in the scum PT would be one way I'd respond/update.)
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Post Post #4241 (isolation #236) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:48 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4139, GuyInFreezer wrote:I think I'm going to check LLD tonight Reck next night.
I mean you're free to check Reck if you want but it'll just be continuing to scumclaim.
mastina idk time to time I get tempted to just check her for SK but yeah
Fate might fit for a serial killer kill by me (if I was afraid of him in particular catching me), but Spiffeh sure as heck doesn't. I might consider Spiffeh as a nightkill as scum, but as a serial killer, heck no. I'd be aiming for scum.

The fact that the serial killer actually HIT scum should be proof I'm not them. :P
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Post Post #4242 (isolation #237) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:51 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4140, GuyInFreezer wrote:mastina didn't know how Russian's NK worked so she's prob not russian yeah
Bullshit.

Point to this alleged space where I don't know how the Russian nightkill works.
It doesn't exist.

I've known the Russians didn't get a kill until N2 (last night) since the rules were posted.
I've also known the serial killer was the Fate killer AND the Spiffeh killer.
And that the mafia kill is therefore absent for one of three reasons.

So yeah.
Prove this statement.
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Post Post #4244 (isolation #238) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:55 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4160, xRECKONERx wrote:maybe they don't have nukes
i feel like scum probably grabbed a handful of town roles
Yeah we've got two flipped scum silos and me having gone for all thirteen roles and gotten none of them. The remaining three scum might not ALL have roles, but it's almost an assured bet that most if not all of the scumteam TRIED for roles and it's a fair bet at least one or two got them.

And you might note I am in full agreement about them grabbing a handful of town roles.

Like, oh.
You know.

Espionage.

Justsayin'.
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Post Post #4246 (isolation #239) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:15 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4164, xRECKONERx wrote:like what if mastin lied about her bid placements in order to throw the game into chaos making us think there are more power roles out there than we thought
Admittedly that's something I might do...

...If I actually HAD a role.

Saying I have a nuke, when I have a role, is a great move. In fact, it was actually my plan. I was planning on lying about whatever role I got until I was able to properly use said role to its maximum utility. (Unless I got eavesdrop, which I'd claim immediately and post the leaks of.)

My plan for this game can be broken down into three alignments:
-As serial killer: grab a free airbase to make myself immune to everything except nukes. Put fallout shelter as my top pick for my troop, to make me immune to nukes. Failing that, strategic missile defense (second), deadhand (third), or covert ops team (fourth). If all failed, rely on missile silo in defense mode. Truthfully claim what I got, and BS a reason for my scummy-ass self-serving picks. Use my hatred of vigs as justification for why I didn't go for them, probably mention something along the lines of me figuring that the good roles would be put high. In this plan, I may or may not lie about having put all thirteen troops in play, but because I wouldn't have the information of a scumteam, I'd probably play conservatively and not gambit that way.

-As scum: honestly, as scum I'd know I was fucked in a game of this nature with this playerlist. Submarine would be my top bid. Failing that, airbase. Failing that, the same picks as a serial killer, only extended to have a full thirteen. What order I'd put those others in, I don't know, figured I'd discuss that with my scumbuddies if it ever came to that but, well, yaknow. I don't actually have any so this never happened. Regardless, if I got a troop (and I was planning on getting a troop regardless of my alignment), I'd have lied and said I didn't have one in spite of having submitted the full list.

Of course, my excuse when this would be proven false would be self-evident: "You believed me when I openly claimed VT? Lol." I would tell you it was a gambit, because it was one, I'd just lie about the motivation and modify the town plan (see below) to best fit my narrative.

-As town: get a troop actually useful to town and exploit it for all its worth. In the mean time, while claiming the list I submitted, lie about having gotten one, say I did not, so as to hide my troop. Hiding the troop would allow me to lay low and utilize it to the best of my ability. For the rest of my plan, see also my daystart PM. That plan was very flexible. It wasn't originally meant for nuking. It was meant to obfuscate me having a troop. For instance, if I had nabbed cop, I could have produced results without ever being a candidate for the nightkill. (Because no fucking duh, nobody would nightkill me with my play this game. That was deliberate. What wasn't was me getting a missile silo.)

In both of the plans where I get a troop and lie about it, you might wonder, "But wouldn't you be asked to prove you have the vig?"
Why yes.
Yes I would.

But I also have a STRONG established stance that I absolutely
loathe
vigilante as a role, that I would never willingly vig someone, that I will always shoot town using it (as today is a fine demonstration of), so as town or as scum, doesn't mater; I'd have very good reason to say I was not going to use my power because I refuse to lolvig someone.

...So you're not exactly wrong.

It's just...well. We have mod confirmation that. Y'know. I have a fucking nuke. And while I'd lie and say I don't have a troop when I submitted them all and got one.
No fucking way do I like and say I don't have one (true) and submitted them all with the latter as false.

What gain is there to that?
There's gain to lying about not having a troop.
What gain is there in lying about trying to get every troop?

There isn't one.

I am also very thorough. I leave nothing to chance if I can.
So no fucking shit I submitted all thirteen powers.
I wanted one.
Failing that, to know they were all in the game.

I submitted all thirteen powers. I got none of them.
That is fact.
The only thing to determine from thereon out is whether I am town or I am scum.
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Post Post #4247 (isolation #240) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:19 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4195, GreyICE wrote:
VLA until the end of the game
GreyICE at the time the serial killer's submarine nuke was launched, both Firebringer and Reck had nukes heading their way.

That means you're going to be killed by the serial killer in 17 hours.

I mean.
If you choose not to give any content in that time.

Your prerogative.

But you're a walking deadman right now, so.

If you have any interest of giving last thoughts.
Now's the time to give them.
You won't have a chance later.
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Post Post #4249 (isolation #241) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:21 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4213, Untrod Tripod wrote:although I still want to see mastina's "psychological profile" on me
In post 3124, mastina wrote:Well first off, I'll start by admitting that you, like LLD, I know more by reputation than by firsthand experience. I've seen you play a few times here and there, but only sporadically so.

Yet for you, the profile is relatively simple, and binary:
As town you will disguise content as trolling.
As scum, you will disguise trolling as content.

I was under the impression this game was the latter, but I have reason now to doubt this.
^
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Post Post #4261 (isolation #242) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:13 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4245, Untrod Tripod wrote:show us some profiles you filthy tease ;-)
I have to actually be scum to get into the proper mindset for writing psychological profiles like that. There's a fundamental difference in the way I process information as town and scum, so there's two sets of profiles I form: the ones as town, and the ones as scum. They do not intersect. Especially since as scum I know who my scumbuddies are. That knowledge alone makes a difference--namely, because I know who they are, I don't have to write profiles for them. (Though, I might give them advice off of my experience with them if I feel like they could possibly have use for it. Which is...less than a third of this playerlist essentially. Most players here are of the type I take cues FROM, rather than them taking cues from me.)

I can give some amount of fair approximation, but I cannot give replication.
It'd look something like this though:
Spoiler: Maybe, anyway
1. SpyreX
^A player past his prime. He's basically by the book oldguard. He's charismatic, and with this playerlist that knows him well, that could be problematic, but his lack of familiarity with current site meta will drag him down. As a whole, mafiascum's quality of posting has gone to shit in the time he's been away, and that's not something a veteran can easily adjust to. Furthermore, he's someone who is naturally scummy from what I remember. The main threat I see here is him having a lolnuke on a pet scumread that turns out to be accurate, so he is someone we ideally want dead, but he's far from a priority. He's a potential mislynch, but by GOD be careful when approaching this because LORD if you try and fail it will backfire on you hardcore.

2. Papa Zito
^This dude's going for the vig kills this game. He's also reasonably competent at it. For that reason, do not underestimate him and be on your guard. He's a low-key player: he keeps things close to his chest, and then BAM. Unleashes a whole lotta pain. In another game he might be my top nightkill priority. Here he's someone we still want dead sooner rather than later, though I'm not sure
exactly
when. Just...soon. Because if we try it later, it'll be too late.

He
might
be possible to mislynch, but I wouldn't be too hopeful there. He's very good at obvtowning himself at the
precise
moment it is most inconvenient to the scumteam for him to have done so. And is another player who wagoning unsuccessfully is a bad idea.

3. RedCoyote
^Another oldguard player, and one who is mostly out of his element. This is an ideal mislynch target: he is not low-hanging fruit, so you can go after him. Yet because he's not up to par with current site meta, he won't respond well to being wagoned. In short, he
used
to be a good scumhunter. He used to be charismatic. I don't know about his scumhunting abilities these days, but he's lost his touch in swaying crowds, so if we push there, we can get a lynch.

4. MagnaofIllusion
^Basically like RedCoyote, but slightly less so, in that he has regained more experience than RedCoyote has, and is therefore more acclimated. He used to be an auto-nightkill for both accuracy and charisma. Nowadays he's at least so-so. Depending on what powers we get, and what his reads are, he MAY be worth nightkilling at some point in the game to prevent his voice from growing stronger (the later in the game, the better he gets), but otherwise, not a top threat.

You do want to be careful when engaging him though. While he might not be charismatic in the early game by himself, engaging him has a way of exposing yourself as being scum to others separate from his arguments. (In other words, by engaging him you might end up lynched for reasons which are unrelated to his points against you, because of how you handle the engagement.)

5. Nukebringer (Equinox + Firebringer)
^I'll be honest, I don't really know much about Equinox. But Firebringer I can tell you a bit about. He can be REALLY obviously town, but he's highly obnoxious. For that reason, don't bother with him. I'd also avoid trying to mislynch the slot because that'd just bring some unwanted attention onto you. Let him lynch himself, so to speak.

6. Accountant
^I haven't seen much of Accountant, but my impression there is thoroughly mediocre: not a stellar scumhunter, and not in any way charismatic. In the lategame, could be a wildcard which we don't want, but honestly, this is a prime mislynch candidate because Accountant doesn't qualify as low-hanging fruit.

7. McMenno
^McMenno, however, does. He's a known troll. Ideally, the town deals with him for us. He's a wildcard. I'd prefer having as few of those in the lategame as possible, but he's not someone I want dead. At all, by our hands. Avoid lynching him. Avoid killing him. Hope the town deals with him, but otherwise we'll have to live with him and hope we can tailor him, because in this playerlist there are simply too many good players that are far superior kills.

8. Lady Lambdadelta
^Prime example, LLD. She's absolutely charismatic and yet, to back that up, she's an excellent scumhunter to boot. She's rather good with mechanics, too, so she's not someone we even REMOTELY want close to endgame. I'd even consider her for our first kill. She's not without weaknesses, of course--her rageposting style can get her in trouble. She's stated that she's trying to tune that down, but because people actually expect her to ragepost, the lack of it could theoretically be used as a weapon against her. (Albeit a bit of a low-blow. In general, I would much prefer we not encourage rageposting.) That being said, it'll save us a massive headache if we just fucking kill her.

9. Untrod Tripod
^Honestly I know him more by reputation than not. Similar to Zito, he's a low-key player: someone who stays mostly in the background. Unlike Zito, he might be a viable mislynch: he doesn't have quite the same charm as Zito. Rather, he has plenty of charm (maybe even more than Zito), it's just that none of it makes people want to lynch him less. I don't think he'll be a problem even if he's not lynched, though. As far as I know, he's not a god-tiered scumhunter, and this game has plenty which we need gone.

11. Cheetory6
^My understanding of Cheetory is that he is a good player, but not a god player. He's probably not a mislynch we can get, and also not a high-priority kill. The main danger I see from Cheetory is that he has some skill in
uniting
towns. So while he might not have good reads himself, he might get players who have mostly good reads save for the one townie they keep tunneling on...to stop tunneling on the townie. If we see signs of that, yeah, he needs to go, otherwise, there are better kills we can make.

12. GuyInFreezer
^GiF is a bit past his prime, in that what he can do now isn't nearly as much as what he used to be able to do. I'd rate him at about Cheetory levels of skill: good, but not god. He's a bit of a low-key player, though, so unlike Cheetory, we can probably get a mislynch on him, if for no other reason than his lack of charisma.

13. xRECKONERx
^Another instakill this game. Reck might not be as good as he used to be, but it doesn't matter. He doesn't need to be in order to still be someone we want dead as soon as possible, and who we do NOT want locking onto us. So whatever you do, don't get on his bad side. He WILL end you. He's still charismatic so it doesn't matter if the rest of his reads are wrong. All it takes is one right read, and we're fucked. He dies as soon as convenient.

14. Errantparabola
^Errant's an okay player, but neither charismatic nor particularly competent. The main threat from Errant I see is if Errant lands a role we want gone, because then we have to deal with Errant in a playerlist choked full of extreme talent that would otherwise be far superior kills. I'm not sure if it'd be a good idea to push Errant as a mislynch, though--Errant might qualify as low-hanging fruit, which we should avoid. If no other viable options exist, though, it probably wouldn't be the end of the world.

15. Vaxkiller
^Honestly a blind spot. I don't know anything about Vax, so if any of you have experience, I'd love to hear. Basically a wildcard.

Toogeloo
^Toogeloo is somewhere between okay and good, in that Toog is decent at the game, but nowhere near charismatic and when Toogeloo goes down the wrong tangent, Toogeloo
really
goes down the wrong tangent. Toog, when not on the wrong tangent, can be fairly good, but it's easy to redirect Toogeloo to the wrong areas. The threat here is similar to Errant, in that if Toogeloo gets a role which allows Toogeloo to not easily be misled, we'd be in trouble. Otherwise, not someone to focus on. Possible mislynch, though like Errant, could potentially qualify as low-hanging fruit. And again, better than nothing (or bussing).

16. GreyICE
^Somewhere between Reck and LLD in INSTAKILL. I don't have much advice other than:
run
. And make him dead. Because, uh, yeah. He's good. He's charismatic. He knows his stuff. It's hard to mislynch him in any remotely competent town and this town most definitely is. So he needs to die.

19. hiplop
^hiplop is pretty similar to Cheetory in that he's someone who is good, but not god, and can synchronize towns. However, I don't think he's as much of a threat as Cheetory is in that regard. Also, he's easier to mislynch. Not someone we want to kill unless circumstances dictate it, and someone you can probably safely push.

20. Cephrir
^Cephrir a solid player. I hold him in great respect, but honestly, he's the kind of guy who's "more than the sum of his parts". Because he's not the best scumhunter in the world, though he's fairly decent; he's not the most charismatic in the world, though he's fairly decent. In spite of those traits, he's pretty good at the game anyway and a lot like me, actually. (There's a reason we work so well together as town.) He's someone who can sometimes obvtown himself, and sometimes end up as a mislynch. Regardless of which, though, he's one of the few players you can push without it backfiring on you either way. Probably not someone we want to nightkill, unless he's the SK. (Which, knowing my luck, he totally is. :P)

21. Nahdia
^Nahdia is solid in mechanics and can be the glue holding a town team together, but otherwise, is a much better scum player than town: as town, Nahdia doesn't...really hold the same drive. As a result, Nahdia is neither the best scumhunter nor the best at being charismatic. The glue is the main threat from Nahdia, similar to the glue from Cheetory and hiplop. Is a possible mislynch, but that wildly depends on the circumstances. Pay close attention; it may or may not be viable. If not lynched, not a top-priority nightkill, but certainly not the worst kill possible. In another game, Nahdia'd probably even be high on the NK list. But here, not so much.

24. lrcher
^Ircher is low-hanging fruit. He's not a competent scumhunter and not charismatic, so the main dangers there are one, him being a wildcard, and two, pursuing him as a mislynch. Let the town do that. Don't touch him otherwise.

Fate
^We want Fate gone. He's an oldguard veteran, but unlike other oldguard veterans, his touch hasn't dulled. In spite of being rusty, his scumhunting skills are as sharp as ever. While he might come across as deceptively incompetent to the current site meta, he actually fits in rather nicely, and with the flip of a switch, he'll go from "nobody of note" to "guy-who-just-lynched-the-whole-scumteam". He's not impossible to lynch, but he's at or near the top of my nightkill priority list. And that says something on THIS playerlist.

SAD
^I remember him vaguely as a veteran, but I remember nothing about him, unfortunately. I think he was good in his day, but I haven't the slightest clue if he still is. He's a wildcard, to be on the watch for. He could be a mislynch, he could be a top kill priority, he could be neither, it all depends. We'll have to wait and see.
Yes some of these are offensive, but when I'm scum I don't give a damn about being offensive; my objective as scum is to win, and part of winning is being blunt and to the point, honestly disclosing all the facts about each person and their strengths and weaknesses, such that my scumteam can best exploit them.
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Post Post #4263 (isolation #243) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:23 pm

Post by mastina »

(Basically my top nightkills as scum would be Fate, Reck, LLD, and GreyICE, with hints of Zito and
maybe
Magna.)
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Post Post #4267 (isolation #244) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:30 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4250, Nukebringer wrote:No lie. I'm super interested in my profile.
With respect, not something I really want to share. It's one of the few ones I don't want to. It's not too different from scumastina's Firebringer profile, but there are some marked differences, from the fact that as town I have to read you whereas when scum I have to best figure out how to use you. I can tell you that it involves some key indicators separating your towngame from your scumgame, and among those are basically, it's self-obvious: you can't hide your alignment worth a damn. When you're town you make it obvious. When you're scum, the proof you're scum is in how you have not made it obvious you are town.

No doubt you have attempted to hide your obvtown nature in some of your towngames. You probably think you've done so plenty of times. But you're far worse at it than you think you are and it shines through even when you're trying not to.

Also you can try at any point and communicate it anyway, so.
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Post Post #4269 (isolation #245) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:33 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4260, GuyInFreezer wrote:> Saying that I knew Fate was going to die
> Only SK could kill that night
> Messed up about which can kill when
> Not Russian
No that was me calling bullshit on your investigation on Fate even existing.
As in, you as scum chose to claim whoever would be killed by the SK as your target. (With you having done...whatever the fuck you pleased to do, really.) If it was, say, Reck instead of Fate, I was indicating you'd have said it was Reck you investigated.

Of course, Errant's claim has since disproven this, but that wasn't around at the time.
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Post Post #4278 (isolation #246) » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:44 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4264, Nukebringer wrote:Uh ... would mastina-scum post all of that?
Yes.

At least once, maybe two or three times, I have posted hypothetical lists of that nature as scum. This is far from my first time posting them as town, either. (At least third if not more.)
Of course, I'm not stupid. The lists I post aren't even paraphrased. They're made from scratch, without referencing the
real
list in the mafia PT.

At least one of the times, in fact, I think I made a list like this as scum in-thread...without having actually made the list in the mafia PT at all. I don't psychologically profile players every game. Part of situational awareness is...knowing when it is appropriate to use situational awareness, and some games simply didn't dictate the need for me to spend the time and effort making those writeups when I knew they'd not be needed.

In short, the list I posted couldn't even remotely be close to a copy-paste from the scum PT into here. (Even if that wouldn't get me modkilled, it'd be a hilariously bad idea because the way I write in a mafia PT is SO distinct that there's no way to 100% replicate it. So people who know me can tell the difference between a list which is the real deal, and a list which is me making shit up.)

It could, in theory, be somewhat close. As scum I would try and make an imperfect replication of my real, original thoughts. So I'd post things which would at least be vaguely along the same lines as the original. But it'd all be done by hand, from scratch. So regardless of my alignment, the list I made in that spoiler is all BS I wrote up here on the spot.

I quite like it as writing. I feel like I got more into the scum mindset than normal. (Then again, that's been the case the whole game; all my plans and plotting behind the scenes is something I relish in as scum and I've been doing plenty here, so.) Was rather fun, dealing with the "what if" of me being scum, of what the game could have been like. In particular, the detail about Ceph being the SK just felt so...
right
, to the scumastina. Which is odd, because Cephrir's literally at the bottom of my SK suspect list, it's just that for some reason I feel that as scum I'd suspect he was one. Dunno why.
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Post Post #4651 (isolation #247) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:03 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4362, Vaxkiller wrote:bob as planned if your guess is as good as mine
This is PR-hunting, and probably the doctor from the sound of it.
Also, either nuke-planning or kill-planning. (Probably the latter, especially given the below.) This isn't SK-hunting though, because the scum aren't going to aim for the SK at this stage.
they held fire
This is referring to someone with a nuke. Potentially McMenno.
not xavier?
This is asking about what to do/not do. If the theory about Xavier = Reck is true (and it's not at all a bad theory), this was probably discussing who to nightkill, because Reck's roleblock would be a serious threat to the scum.
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Post Post #4652 (isolation #248) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:04 pm

Post by mastina »

Also am I a bad person for thinking the tone of the scum might match up with Accountant's tone?
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Post Post #4653 (isolation #249) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:09 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4418, Nukebringer wrote:I hope you're happy, mastina.
Not particularly, no, because this game has a proven record of reading comprehension fail from basically half the playerlist so they'll be stupid enough to think I was the one who just killed Zito when rather explicitly, MY nuke was sabotaged and that was the serial killer's nuke which hit him.

Fuck if I know why, though.
The SK didn't know I was sabotaged, presumably.
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Post Post #4654 (isolation #250) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:10 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4426, Cheetory6 wrote:Well, glad that GI is town at least?
I think?
I mean, that's a given, so.
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Post Post #4657 (isolation #251) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:23 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4448, Cephrir wrote:i don't think anyone other than mastina could have thought this
I don't think even I could have thought that.
I mean, I've made it crystal clear that as the terrorist, my free pick would be the airbase because that would make me immune to everything except nuking and lynching, and if I got the fallout shelter, that would make me immune to nuking as well, meaning the only way to get rid of me would be by lynch, and that is something I could easily get out of if I had interactions with scum that would basically be undeniably not-Russian. So that'd make me basically invincible for 3/4ths of the game, putting me into automatic win territory, so long as:
-The Russians wouldn't endgame me...
-And I could keep paranoia from getting too high on me.

I mean. As a SK, the weakness in this plan is the interactions with Russians part, but I'd be going full-out offensive on the scumhunting knowing the Russians couldn't kill me. It'd depend on how accurate my reads were, so if that part failed the whole plan would. But otherwise, if I got so much as ONE good read, then I'd be able to coast until endgame doing whatever the fuck I wanted to with absolute impunity.

But since we know the terrorist took the sub.
Assume for a moment that I'm lying about my SK play. (Though I have a strong record in favor of me telling the truth, namely, one my personality in that I am vain and arrogant enough to assume I as a SK get killed by the scum, and two while I may not draw SK often, the one time I did, I took bulletproof.)
Assume that for some unfathomable reason, I took a submarine, when my stance on the submarine is that it's no different from a missile silo.
Assume for some reason that I have triple-killing power, via missile silo, sub, and terrorist nightkill.

I'd have to be fucking psychic to know I was sabotaged. I'd also have to be an absolute idiot to target the same person twice, wasting that extra power in nine out of ten scenarios. It also means that I would REALLY want Zito dead above all other players. None of my play has matched up to this line of thought.

Regardless of your thoughts about my intelligence. No matter how fucking stupid you assume I may be. It is undeniable that regardless of my alignment, I formulate plans. Strategies. Ideas. These might be moronic from your point of view, but they EXIST, and are traceable and easily detected and observed, especially given time and the benefit of hindsight. I am in no way subtle.

Soyeah. This isn't my game as a terrorist.

It is closer to my scumgame than my towngame, but it's not even remotely compatible with the terrorist's strategy here.
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Post Post #4658 (isolation #252) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:24 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4449, Cheetory6 wrote:Ceph. If you were reading mastin's posts, you would know that she has a plan. Ok?
Legit made me laugh out loud. One of the best posts in the entire game.
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Post Post #4661 (isolation #253) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:26 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4465, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I think it is pretty telling that mastin has been all “Scum would sabotage me if LLD is scum”, has that proven to have happened, and just dropped both LLD and Spyrex as scum.
That was assuming scum had sabotage and would keep this fact a secret because no fucking duh, scum with sabotage are not going to claim it.

SpyreX openly claimed it.

Now granted, that's not a clear on SpyreX.
There's also not a clear on LLD.
But SpyreX tonality-wise doesn't seem like scum.
And if LLD is scum she's done a wonderful job of viciously destroying the scumread I had on her, so.

Other priorities.
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Post Post #4663 (isolation #254) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:36 pm

Post by mastina »

^Another good post which gave me a good laugh.
Also true.

At this stage, that means it's preeeeeeetty dang obvious Ircher is town, so.

I'm going to go do this.
VOTE: MagnaofIllusion.
There's at least a 7/10 chance this is a terrible, godawful vote.

There is a 0% chance that I get a MoI lynch here.

But.

At this point in time.
I'm doubting GiF as scum.
I realize there's a wagon on McMenno. McMenno has been a nullscum read basically the entire game.
He's the default lynch, who we are going to lynch pretty much no matter what.

And that is something that has a realistic chance of flipping scum. I get that, I know it.
But I don't feel like it.
I feel like being contrarian.
Pursuing this.

If not MoI I might vote Cephrir.
Which I suppose has a 1% chance of going through as opposed to a 0% chance, but is a 9/10 chance of being a terrible, godawful vote rather than 7/10.

Basically the only vote right now which wouldn't be godawful is McMenno and I honestly don't feel like doing that, so if my vote's going to be godawful no matter what, it might as well be on someone I feel like voting.
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Post Post #4664 (isolation #255) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:39 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4535, MagnaofIllusion wrote:On a bad note up is down, dogs are cats, and my reads are all fucked up ...
Me taking pleasure in this would be the pot calling the kettle black to say the absolute least.
In spite of that, normally I would be all up for that.

Normally I'd be relishing at seeing the mighty fall, seeing the arrogance of MoI and how he looks after he is time and time again proven wrong,
even though I myself have been proven wrong
. Because I am a vain, arrogant bitch who takes pleasure in the suffering of others to alleviate my own.

Normally.

Unfortunately for me, those feelings vanish if MoI is a dirty rotten scumbag because no duh, he'd be faking it then and therefore there is no pleasure to be had.

And this looks like faking, so.
Alas.
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Post Post #4665 (isolation #256) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:42 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4560, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Yes that is suspect as fuck. I mean with Nuke flipping Silo that means scum preferred to kill a Day Nuke Doctor over the Cop or a Roleblocker when three Commies already flipped Silo …
Why is it that when other people start to share my beliefs I have to diverge from them?

I've been THE strongest advocate of GiF being scum.
And yeah, the scum not nuking him looks bad for him.
But.

I can't help but think he's town now.
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Post Post #4671 (isolation #257) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:15 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4603, Cheetory6 wrote:Ceph, there's also that mastin "forgetting" to cancel her nuke is pretty god awful too.
I didn't forget anything.

Here's how Friday night went.
At around ten, I was dead tired. Dead fucking tired. I needed a nap. I normally like to do things just after midnight, because that allows me to do things like get the new badge of the day on Kongregate, and not have to deal with a change in date timestamps when browsing forums which will write things in the format of "posted yesterday/2 days ago". So I took a nap.
I forget exactly when I woke up, but it was somewhere between 1 and 2:30.

At that stage, do you know how much work I had to do on my comic?
I had just finished the flats. FLATS.
I hadn't even done the detail work: usually at least half an hour to an hour. There's two layers, so it's definitely at least an hour when factoring in both detail layers.
I hadn't done the second coloring layer which adds life to the work. Since this was my first time coloring a character (the random villain guy), it would take me extra-long. That took me about half an hour in of itself to figure out, yet alone, draw. And throughout this process, I was noticing that the written numbers I have for those colors...weren't very visible, so I was trying to write new numbers that would make things pop more for future pages.
When factoring in the drawing time, that's at least an hour's worth of work.
The third layer doesn't take me much time, since the only thing I bother to make a third layer for is Ruby's hair (in part because I simply don't have the time for a third layer everywhere, in part because there isn't much of a need for a third layer anywhere else), but there was also making the faded sketch layer. That, for this page, involved erasing the extra, as to remove the excess white which looks godawful in the finished stages. Playing around with the transparencies in particular took a while.
Then there was after that the highlights and lowlights. These are relatively simple, just black and white at whatever opacity feels right. (I guess every single page.) In spite of this being largely improvisation, it still takes time to paint what "feels" right for the page. At least half an hour there.

Then, after that, I had ENDLESS woes working on the fucking magic. Two layers worth. The final page resembles my original cover in colors, rather than the awesome third page, and I haven't a clue why, since I never recorded the original cover's colors, and I DID record the colors for the third page, so it makes absolutely no sense that the colors which were recorded for the third page ended up identical to the colors I actually did for the cover page, and I was trying to fix this, to tamper with this, to mess around with it, to no avail.

The magic is sloppy. It doesn't have the same life to it as the previous pages. There's no luminosity to it, no light reflecting off of body parts as there was on the previous page. And while I managed to more or less capture the majority of the feeling behind the magic, it wasn't even remotely as good as it should have been.

And then you get to see the villain's subtle magic. That took time to figure out, and even there I didn't do it properly.

Between these factors, it should be no surprise that I spent TWO FUCKING HOURS (no seriously I was keeping track of time and it took me that damn long) to finish it.

...Then, there was the conversion process. On my slow-ass computer. It takes two to three minutes for a file to save. Between saving the original, creating a full-sized copy, creating the release size, and saving the release size, that's four to five saves, which adds up.

...After ALL OF THAT, I spent time on the main site I hang around on, doing the bare minimum rounds: browsing the forums and quickly responding to the minimum content. This started at some time around 7:30, and because I hadn't logged in for a couple of days thanks to being fucking busy, it took me around an hour to finish.

And, oh yeah.
Did I mention my woes weren't over?
The full-sized version of the page, as a PNG, is 7MB.
The site I upload the full-sized images to has a file size limit of 6MB.
So the next page has a full-sized version which was, in MS Paint, converted to a fucking JPEG because that was the only way I could get it online. I meant to trouble-shoot this, but I was tired and I never got around to it.

So while the image is live on one place, on ALL other places, every single other place I host it including my fucking blog, the image is TWO DAYS LATE--and counting, because right now I'm playing this fucking game rather than uploading it--releasing. This, AFTER I was already on a fucking hiatus for weeks so I'm losing what little readership I had gained in the vast majority of places.

And the reason that I didn't put it up on those mirrors?
Because it was fucking 8:30 in the morning, I was absolutely utterly exhausted and I didn't have time for that shit, I was going straight to fucking bed especially since I knew I had to drive myself to--and then BACK from--a boring-ass staff meeting which never produces anything interesting but which I am obligated to attend.

And I set my timer. See, when I set my timer, I have this rule of mine. Not unique to timers, mind you. I'll do the same for microwaves. That rule is that I'll never enter numbers which are not near each other. So, for instance, in a microwave, I can put 212, 252, or 232, because 1, 3, and 5 are the numbers next to 2. On a timer, I am a bit more flexible in some ways, but strict in others: near-universally, I will never enter a time which causes me to cross into another column. So I use times like 3:33:33, 6:39:99, 7:17:77, 7:47:77, and 8:28:88. Those times, and those times only. Why, I don't know, I'm a freak. I usually aim for a number which allows me to get to sleep within half an hour, and then have a total sleep time which is in the pattern of 1.5 hours: 3 hours + half an hour, 4.5 hours + half an hour, 6 hours + half an hour, or 7 hours + half an hour. (Rarely, 9 hours plus half an hour.)

I don't remember which time I entered. It was either the 6:39 or 7:17 one, though, because I woke up at 3:30.
Now, I was under the impression the YMCA closed AT 3:30, and that the staff meeting started at 4. It's a half-hour drive from my house to Monroe. (Well, more like 20 minutes.) So what did I do? I left straight for the fucking staff meeting. Now, the staff meeting was scheduled to go until 7:30. Fortunately for me, it ended at 6:45, so I got home a bit early. And I came in at 7:15 or thereabouts. Now, I hadn't written my daily blog for the day. My brother was coming over for anime night (we watched seven episodes of the second season of Ajin), and he was scheduled to come at the time I was supposed to be home: 8ish. So that left me a 45-minute window to do my daily blog. I whipped it up as quickly as I could, and lo and behold, the first thing I did after that?

Log onto here, post for as much time as I could (even after he had arrived for a while--I delayed my Tuna Helper supper until it was stale thanks to getting caught up here), and then log out when I ran out of time.

That was my Friday, and Saturday, with them having blended together.

Now I never lie about real-life.
Never
.

And if you think I made any of the above up, you're a fucking scumbag especially since most of this is easily proven and known to be true for my life in general really and it would be utterly unethical for me to lie, anyway.

I didn't cancel the nuke because I didn't have the chance to cancel the nuke.
I was too busy working my ass off.
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Post Post #4672 (isolation #258) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:19 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4603, Cheetory6 wrote:I don't really know how far mastin can get by on just having tone that seems like mastin's tone.
Pretty damn far, and I'll tell you why:
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Post Post #4676 (isolation #259) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:25 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4604, Cheetory6 wrote:[And I also kind of think her being scum would be a little too easy in terms of gamestate but that might be stupid]
Actually me being scum would be anything but easy.

Most of the people who want me dead want me dead on policy. They don't actually scumread me, they just want me gone to have me out of the game.

As a result, I'm very widely townread. As scum, that puts me in an awfully convenient position: if most people think I am town when I'm not, then by definition I am doing a good job at being where I need to be. It becomes harder to lynch me because lynching me is a policy-lynch and in the current site meta good luck with that. People have said not to waste nukes on me, and lo and behold they've done exactly that, not nuked me. I haven't given any strong signs that I am scum, either. No leaked messages point to me. No nightkill pattern undeniably has my fingerprint on it. (Granted, only one scum NK and it's failed, so.) No prior scum's actions are associated with my style.

The only thing that could catch a scumastina right now is godawful interactions, which...is exactly what I have. Yet that's not easy. That's an incredibly hard struggle, a fight that is a tough sell, something that would be difficult to go through. So sure, I can be scum, but it wouldn't be easy. And while I'm not scum, by an extent of this, the reason I'm not scum isn't "her being scum would be too easy". It's just because I'm not, well...yknow. Scum.
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Post Post #4677 (isolation #260) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:27 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4646, Nahdia wrote:i may be a ditz but i know my mechs dammit
(Which is what my scumastina psychological profile said of Nahdia, just for the record.)
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Post Post #4679 (isolation #261) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:29 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4655, Cheetory6 wrote:Yeah do you really get to judge people or pretend to judge people after SS, Spiff and Nukebringer have all flipped scum?
Yes because me being a horrible human being does nothing to stop me from being a horrible human being towards others who I feel could be horrible human beings. :cool:
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Post Post #4680 (isolation #262) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:35 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4666, Cephrir wrote:I've apparently gone from a #1 townread to scum because handwaving. Cool
More like, your content vs. my expectations, me paying attention to little oddities (for instance, I called you out on your attitude towards me and ignored it; I called Firebringer out for agreeing/defending with me and ignored it; Firebringer flipped scum so now I am revisiting my stance on having ignored something like that), knowing my reads thusfar have been utter shit, reevaluating my list, redeploying PoE off of new developments, and taking into consideration the feedback of others whose opinions I value.

When I get fully caught up, I'll make another list to show where things currently stand.
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Post Post #4682 (isolation #263) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:45 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4675, Untrod Tripod wrote:mastina
Image
No, because it was directed specifically to Cheetory who was calling my fucking real life into question and saying I was a fucking liar, and it was an open DARE to him to call me a liar again on the subject.

I do not lie about real-life.
Never have, never will.
If circumstances tend to be convenient/inconvenient for an alignment, then they are convenient/inconvenient for that alignment, but they happen to be nothing more than fortunate or unfortunate coincidences.
Because I don't. fucking. lie. about. my. damn. real. life.

I am like one of THE most open people on the internet. Facets of my real life are SO well-known that literally anyone who knows anything about me knows basically all of them because I do not hide basically anything. Even if I wasn't! Lying about real life is THE most unethical, dirty scumbag thing that you can EVER do in a game and if I learn someone has done so then that person is not someone I'd ever want to play with again, but guess what? Nobody has yet to be on that list. Because nobody. fucking. lies. about. their. real. life. Shit happens. And when that shit happens, it is basic fucking common courtesy to accept that maybe, just maybe, that shit actually happened.

Which is why doubting real-life is absolutely deplorable. Not quite to the same extent as actually lying about real-life would be, but it's up there. The game of mafia has always relied to some extent on the honor system. Town can cheat. Scum can cheat. Now on this forum, we're at least decent at being able to pick up on cheating, but we can never fully expunge the possibility to cheat and get away with it. Yet nobody does. Because we have the fucking honor system. And real-life falls under that.

There is nothing stopping a player from lying about their real life to gain an advantage in-game.
But nobody does because that is not something we ever want to lie about. It'd be a breach of the honor system. Mafia is a game of deception, sure. But some deceptions cross the lie. And real-life lying is among them.
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Post Post #4683 (isolation #264) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:52 pm

Post by mastina »

Untrod Tripod
Cheetory6
Vaxkiller
hiplop
GreyICE
xRECKONERx
SpyreX
Nahdia
GuyInFreezer
Lady Lambdadelta
McMenno
Accountant
MagnaofIllusion
Cephrir

Something akin to this. It's not an exact science, especially the SpyreX-LLD zone.
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Post Post #4685 (isolation #265) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:56 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4684, Cephrir wrote:You're absurd.
Yeah tell me something I don't know. We established this...HOW long ago?
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Post Post #4688 (isolation #266) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:00 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4686, Cephrir wrote:now ask me a question about it
You say this, and yet, nobody actually
has
asked me.

Did the thought cross your mind that if I were asked, given I am trying to come out of the troll part of the game, that maybe just maybe...I would.
Yknow.

Actually answer?

Most of the names on my list are self-explanatory. From Reck above, there's basically a guarantee of no groupscum. (Now granted, within that group any name could be the serial killer, butstill.) From SpyreX and below, there's no such guarantee, simply some basic feelings which result...in these approximate rankings.
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Post Post #4697 (isolation #267) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:06 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4687, Nahdia wrote:mastina my friend, I know you're an intelligent lass. Surely you can appreciate the idea of ceph, magna, and grey being off limits today, no?
GreyICE already is.

And I have stated explicitly that I do not think my vote will go through to a lynch.
That doesn't stop me from voting someone who I think could be scum anyway.

It's more a statement than a push.
I am stating deliberately I am not going to join the McMenno wagon. For better or for worse, I have made my call there. I have made many bad calls this game, among them a near-identical call on the Something_smart lynch. All the same I feel like making the call and when I feel like making a call like this, I never ignore it. I won't wagon McMenno.

And yet McMenno is the only viable lynch.
So if McMenno is the only viable lynch, and yet I won't vote there, my vote is utterly useless and pointless. I do not believe in Not Voting, outside of lylo at least. So I have to place my vote somewhere. I'd place it on Accountant, but Accountant's going to be vaporized. Who then, would I vote? Not McMenno, not Accountant. Half the game is in my townreads. I'm not gonna vote you. I have a feeling SpyreX off of his tone isn't scum. I also refuse to vote for GiF, the cop,
especially
given the doubt in my scumread on him.

Really all that's left after that is LLD, MoI, and Cephrir. So my vote's going to be on one of those three. And LLD I currently don't hold as scum.
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Post Post #4702 (isolation #268) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:09 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4692, Nahdia wrote:They're the only people who haven't claimed.
Actually, to my knowledge, SpyreX hasn't claimed either, so it's four unclaimed.

But yes I know I'm not going to lynch them.
Nothing stopping me from voting them though.
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Post Post #4706 (isolation #269) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:12 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4705, Nahdia wrote:In fact, you KNOW he's claimed. You acknowledged his claim yourself. You're just forgetting.
:facepalm:
I'm an idiot.
Moving on, nothing to see here, we've discovered nothing we didn't already know.
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Post Post #4746 (isolation #270) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:55 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4719, Ircher wrote:For someone who does so much research, I would expect you to show a little more doubt in your scumread on me than what you are showing; I am by no means the towniest person in the world, but I'd imagine you've looked at my meta a bit.... ESPECIALLY WHEN I LINK MY GAMES ON MY WIKI PAGE.... Explain to me how the post in question felt extremely likely to come from scum!me and very unlikely from town!me.
You misunderstand.
I don't rely on meta from games I haven't played.

Only games that I have, combined with what I pick up here and there.

Frankly I don't think we actually have played together, so I don't have any meta on you. I judged you on play, and play alone.
Now granted.
I might use examples from games that I haven't played, if I lack the immediate resources of games that I have. (Meaning, I either can't find or am not allowed to link to my real source.)
But said examples are not the real source. They're just the only available source, the thing that gets as close as I can get to what I really mean.
I wouldn't put it past you to hardcore white-knight all your scumbuddies this game, especially the way you played at the beginning.
I explicitly do not bus.

Apply this logic to who I have and have not pushed, see what conclusions you can form from it.
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Post Post #4747 (isolation #271) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:01 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1254, Spiffeh wrote:People I don't want nuked this phase under any circumstance: {Accountant, Cheetory6, MoI, Papa Zito, Cephrir, Reck, SpyreX}
People I think are town but not enough to warrant being in the first group: {LLD, hiplop, mastina, SAD, McMenno, RedCoyote}
People I wouldn't mind seeing get nuked: {Untrod Tripod, Fate, GreyICE, Nahdia, Something_Smart, ErrantParabola, Ircher}
People that need to be lynched/nuked at the earliest opportunity: {GIF, Vaxkiller, Nukebringer}
Nukebringer flipped scum.
I do not see Spiffeh putting two scumbuddies in that tier. It's not impossible, but it's not probable.
In the second tier, UT/GreyICE/Nahdia are the only unflipped ones, and all have a strong reason to be town. Given Something_smart's presence in there, I would be willing to bet all the others are town.
The main concern is the first two groups. Accountant, Zito, and Reck are all town, leaving Cheetory, MoI, Cephrir, and Spyrex;
hiplop, SAD, and RedCoyote are all town leaving LLD and McMenno.

The McMenno lynch is happening and LLD is about to eat an investigation.
So right now if LLD comes up town (which she should), then depending on McMenno's flip we probably have two scum in Cheetory, MoI, Cephrir, and SpyreX. We definitely have one, at least.

Tell me: who in that list do you think is scum?
Who in that list do you think is town?
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Post Post #4749 (isolation #272) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:04 pm

Post by mastina »

McMenno's at L-1 by the way.
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Post Post #4752 (isolation #273) » Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:05 pm

Post by mastina »

It's tempting to lolhammer here.
Even though I just said I'd never join the wagon.
And someone else is going to just hammer McMenno literally five minutes from now anyway.
But eh. I suppose I'll leave it to that person.
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Post Post #4774 (isolation #274) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:50 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4770, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Cephrir, GreyICE, MoI
It's time for these 3 to massclaim and the one who owns the Battleship is getting roped/nuked.
Alternatively,
Nuke: Cephrir
.
VOTE: MagnaofIllusion.

We just leave GreyICE alive and let the deaths of Cephrir and Magna serve as GreyICE's roleclaim.
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Post Post #4781 (isolation #275) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:55 pm

Post by mastina »

Look.

The reason we let the unclaimed go yesterday was simple:
We wanted to protect the doctor, whose job it was to,
1: be the nightkill, and
2: Stop the scum's nightkill, in particular, on, oh...say. THE FUCKING COP.

The doctor has breached the contract on BOTH accounts.
Neither the SK nor the scum killed in the unclaimed.
And both the SK and the scum killed claimed PRs we wanted alive.

So the doctor neither attracted the nightkill, nor stopped the nightkill on a player they should have.

So, zero. fucks. given. About saving the doctor.
The doctor failed to do their job.
So I don't give a rats ass if I nuke/lynch them anymore.
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Post Post #4782 (isolation #276) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:56 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4778, Nahdia wrote:Very brave of you to just blindly nuke someone who has a 1/3 shot of owning failsafe -_-'
And?

If Ceph owns the failsafe, I get nuked in response.

The whole fucking town celebrates in response.

The problem with this is...what, exactly?
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Post Post #4807 (isolation #277) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:03 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4780, Cheetory6 wrote:Like, if Ceph is town, and you're also town, that will literally mean every single read you've had this game has been wrong other than SAD.
We've been over this.
But, one, Ceph started as a townread and only changed to a scumread after me being shown repeatedly wrong,
And two, I wasn't wrong on McMenno. I said there was a chance of him being scum, but I refused to lynch him. That was on principle partly, yes, but it was also a hard stance of sorts, saying no, I did not think he actually was scum.

If I thought someone actually was scum, no fucking duh I'd be on the wagon. Refusing the wagon was me saying I didn't.

So I've been right that both our mislynches were mislynches. The only difference is the degree in which I fought them. I was deadset against lynching SAD because he was my largest fucking townread. I was in opposition to the McMenno wagon, but I just didn't feel like arguing against it.
I also had Fate as town. And was thinking GiF was town. Yeah I pushed him the hardest, but I was changing my stance there. And had Reck as town.

In short, I've been right on every player being town. (Well, except Ircher. That one caught me off-guard.) It's the scumflips I've been wrong about.
And when you think about it, this is a natural consequence of my playstyle, which focuses on an "innocent until proven guilty" approach. It's easier to townhunt and name town than it is to scumhunt and name scum.

Also, there's like a 75% chance SpyreX just blocked me again so it's not like the nuke will actually land and do damage.
It does make a statement though.
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Post Post #4813 (isolation #278) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:08 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4784, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Hey moron. We don't know who that person is.
...Your point?

I want Cephrir dead.
The only reason to have not wanted him dead was protecting the doctor.
This is no longer the issue, since there is no desire to protect the doctor anymore.
His claim doesn't matter. No matter what role he claims, I'm still going to want him dead. Doctor? ZERO excuse for GiF's death. Deadhand? Well good, he nukes me, a player people want gone anyway. Airbase? Scummy as fuck role and not something worth saving.
WHAT IS THE LOSS OF WAITNG FUCKING 24 HOURS FOR THESE 3 TO CLAIM?
Counterpoint: what is the gain in waiting for them to claim?

I'm not lynching GreyICE regardless of what GreyICE's role is.
I am going to lynch/nuke Cephrir and MoI regardless of what their roles are.

So what does them claiming really change?

I want them dead. Period. So I pursue them. That simple.
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Post Post #4821 (isolation #279) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:19 pm

Post by mastina »

Basically, the only way you can justify the doctor is "Reck blocked an unconfirmed!" (a moronic action, and I repeat, RECK IS NOT A MORON),
Or, "The doctor decided to try and outguess the kill and hope that both the SK and scum would assume he'd be on GiF!" (a decision which is policy-lynch worthy).
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Post Post #4822 (isolation #280) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:20 pm

Post by mastina »

On an unrelated note: vaguely regaining the LLD scumread because of her play today.
She's pushing all sorts of weird ways in wrong places.
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Post Post #4826 (isolation #281) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:23 pm

Post by mastina »

Untrod Tripod
hiplop
Cheetory6
Vaxkiller
GreyICE

SpyreX
Nahdia

Lady Lambdadelta
MagnaofIllusion
Cephrir

Basically this. All three scumreads won't be right. My reads are for finding Russians, so there's the probability of the serial killer in the top. (Read: hiplop.)
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Post Post #4840 (isolation #282) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:30 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4824, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 4821, mastina wrote:Basically, the only way you can justify the doctor is "Reck blocked an unconfirmed!" (a moronic action, and I repeat, RECK IS NOT A MORON),
Or, "The doctor decided to try and outguess the kill and hope that both the SK and scum would assume he'd be on GiF!" (a decision which is policy-lynch worthy).
NO SHIT.
"ONE OF THESE 3 DIES AFTER WE GET CLAIMS"
BUT YOU'RE A FUCKING IMPATIENT CHILD WHO DOESN'T LISTEN TO ANYONE AND THINKS THEIR FUCKING BRILLIANT Or sOMe SHIT
The thing is.

You say one should die.
I say two should die regardless.

I don't think GreyICE has the doctor. I have him pegged as being one of the other two.
I also don't think MagnaofIllusion, Mr. "has been killed N1", takes doctor LEAST of all as scum.
Ergo.
I nuked who I thought would be the doctor.

But it doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong.
I want Cephrir dead regardless of his role.
I want Magna dead regardless of his role.
Unless both Cephrir and MagnaofIllusion both claim/flip not being the doctor, I'm not so much as ever going to consider GreyICE for death.

Sure, 48 hours later might get those claims out.
But it wouldn't change anything.
I'd still want Cephrir dead.
I'd still want MagnaofIllusion dead.

If GreyICE was proven to be the doctor, maybe.
Maybe
. I would want him dead.
But it wouldn't change that I'd STILL want Cephrir dead. And STILL want Magna dead.

What's so hard to understand, here?
What about wanting Cephrir and MoI dead regardless of their claims is so unfathomable to you? Because if GreyICE has a scum role (doctor), then that doesn't make me want to call Cephrir and MoI town. All it does is make me want to lynch GreyICE more. It doesn't change that I still. fucking. want. Cephrir/MoI. dead.
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Post Post #4846 (isolation #283) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:38 pm

Post by mastina »

By the way:
If Cephrir is scum doc.
And MoI is town-deadhand.
LLD is a fucking scumbag who killed GreyICE N2 but was either roleblocked or failed because she targeted the airbase which is immune to the kill.

If Cephrir is scum doc and MoI is scum-deadhand. Well LLD's town by necessity butstill.
My point here is: if either Cephrir or MoI are the scum doc, then there's a significant chance (we're talking at least 50%) that LLD tried to kill GreyICE N2.

Because GreyICE would scumread his wife--maybe regardless of her alignment, maybe only if she were scum, but she's smart enough to know he'd scumread her. In fact he might have already been, would need to check his iso for when he picked up the attacks against her.

Basically, at this stage: we know that between Doctor/Airbase, the scum hold one.
Meaning, the 33% chance we had before?

Is now a 50% chance. Scum, holding the doctor/airbase, couldn't have caused the kill to fail because of said doc/airbase. So, that means the cause of the failed kill was either the other (whichever would be in town's hands)...
...Or Reck blocked the scum kill. Which would mean LLD'd be scum.
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Post Post #4856 (isolation #284) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:44 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4848, Nahdia wrote:If scum have doc, I don't see any reason why GiF wouldn't have been the target N2 meaning the only way that kill could have failed is if RECK blocked the person executing the kill. That's where my head is at.
Actually, there's two possibilities. One is what you mention.
The other is that they didn't want to be caught by the fighter/radar, both of which could catch them NOT protecting the cop and fuck them over when massclaim came along. (Because, well...they knew from me all roles were in play, and because everyone with nukes used them D3 with most of the power roles claimed by D2, they...were very, very limited in their options.)

Thanks to both the radar and fighter being nuked D3, there was no such concern for tonight, potentially explaining them openly going for the kill.
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Post Post #4858 (isolation #285) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:46 pm

Post by mastina »

*Correction: fucking them over BEFORE the massclaim in the case of the fighter, during massclaim in the case of the radar.
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Post Post #4859 (isolation #286) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:47 pm

Post by mastina »

Also, a scum doc would explain why Nukebringer went after Ircher: they knew that nuking GiF would fail because they KNEW that GiF was protected by the battleship (which would shoot down the nuke).
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Post Post #4862 (isolation #287) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:54 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4860, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 4859, mastina wrote:Also, a scum doc would explain why Nukebringer went after Ircher: they knew that nuking GiF would fail because they KNEW that GiF was protected by the battleship (which would shoot down the nuke).
... what
This is backwards.
If the scum doc, FEARING BEING CAUGHT, forced themselves to protect GiF until they knew the threatening roles were out of the game (radar/fighter), that means that the scum doc would protect GiF in order to protect themselves from being found out until said threatening roles were out of the game.

Ergo, scum doc protected GiF, preventing the scum from nuking him because the doc would've stopped the nuke.
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Post Post #4866 (isolation #288) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:56 pm

Post by mastina »

I note a lack of roleclaim from you, Ceph.
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Post Post #4867 (isolation #289) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:58 pm

Post by mastina »

Also a lack of reads for that matter.
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Post Post #4872 (isolation #290) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:02 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4868, Cephrir wrote:I took doc. It's one of my favorite roles. I'm usually pretty good at guessing scum kills. Surprised the scum tried to waste their kill. Go ahead and flame me if you want, but I can't undo it.
And my nuke is justified. Who did you protect N1? N2? N3?
None of that in here.
And this justification for not protecting GiF sucks ass too. If it's not scum.
It should be.
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Post Post #4881 (isolation #291) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:06 pm

Post by mastina »

I would like to point out: if Cephrir flips town, it is evidence that scum didn't *know* who the doctor was, else Ceph would be dead.
So that would be a sign that a MAXIMUM of one in GreyICE/MoI would be scum.

That's only upon a Ceph townflip though. Disregard this if he flips scum, since then you look at LLD with a secondary focus on MoI.
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Post Post #4889 (isolation #292) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:10 pm

Post by mastina »

Actually fuck that.
In post 4880, Cephrir wrote:
In post 4878, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 4875, Cephrir wrote:I figured they ran their kill into me N2 and wouldn't be eager to do it again. Sue me.
What? you can self target?
into me, as in, into my protection on GIF.
The bolded is pretty egregious in particular. LLD is probably scum regardless of Cephrir's flip.

I actually don't know what Cephrir's alignment here is. I think that he needs to die regardless of town or scum, though, and not even on policy: for the information his flip gives. There's a ton of info to be gleaned from his townflip, and a ton of info to be gleaned from his scumflip, so I think no matter what, my nuke there isn't getting recalled.

Not unless someone can present a pretty convincing argument as to why we need our doctor alive regardless of his alignment.
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Post Post #4894 (isolation #293) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:18 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4890, Cephrir wrote:
In post 4889, mastina wrote:I actually don't know what Cephrir's alignment here is
literally fuck off.
I mean, you can go ahead and blacklist me if you'd like for stating the obvious. I'm not scum and not a fucking psychic so no fucking duh. I don't know what your alignment is. There's mixed signals in play right now, some suggesting one way, other stuff like this suggesting the other.

The point there though was that you hold a key point of information. Your death reveals that information. If you flip scum, then we gained a lot of information from my nuke. If you flip town, we still gain a lot of information from my nuke. Things like indicators about LLD. Things like potential alignment indicators on MoI and GreyICE. Information about the scum's situation.

If you were town and stopped the scum's nightkill, then that means the scum tried again.
If you were town and didn't stop the scum's nightkill, then that means the scum tried for the first time not knowing you had been there before.

In the latter, LLD is scum.
In the former, it means scum were trying to make a suboptimal play and got lucky.

There's a whole bunch of this information spinning around in my head that I'm having trouble handling and processing it. You're the flip which gives THE most amount of info in the game, period.

So yes.
I'm nuking you.
It was the optimal play.
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Post Post #4896 (isolation #294) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:19 pm

Post by mastina »

Though.
VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta.

I think, if I'm going to die.
I want to die voting her.
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Post Post #4901 (isolation #295) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:25 pm

Post by mastina »

Untrod Tripod
hiplop (though is totally the serial killer)
Cheetory6
Vaxkiller
GreyICE

Nahdia
SpyreX

Cephrir
MagnaofIllusion
Lady Lambdadelta

Updated.
Ceph's still got plenty which makes him look like scum, but there are enough reasons to doubt it that I'm not convinced he's flipping scum anymore. SpyreX moves down, because if LLD is scum as I'm beginning to suspect, his sabotage of my nuke becomes more suspect. Also, Nahdia's being obviously town whereas with SpyreX literally the only reason he's a townread is by gut. I have nothing tangible. His vote record is by my memory a little shitty and his reads a little lurky and his content a little light. It's purely gut keeping him in the null section.
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Post Post #4936 (isolation #296) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:57 pm

Post by mastina »

Untrod Tripod is town because of the Something_smart situation on D1--this is pretty much self-explanatory, so I don't think I need to go into detail about my read there. He is above reproach. Nobody really contests this. If they do, they certainly haven't been vocal about it.

hiplop is, via GiF, confirmed to not be a Russian. Sure, he's the terrorist, but he's not a Russian.

Cheetory is just pretty blatantly obviously town here. I also don't think anyone is questioning that fact, but were they to, I would point to scum's interactions with Cheetory. Consistently, they seem to be buddying him, in a way suggesting that he is not their scumbuddy.

Vaxkiller might not be posting content, but assuming he is actually a newb, I hold no issue with what little he has given. (If he's an alt, yeah, lurking hardfuckingcore and needs to die eventually. Alt is possible because who the fuck signs up for one of their first games DEFCON, who the fuck lets a newbie INTO a DEFCON came, and also because Vaxkiller called me a "he" which no newbie should. But while it's a possibility, it's not a probability and if he is new I am inclined to think his behavior is town.)

You also have to keep in mind that Vaxkiller was consistently pressured by people who flipped scum. Spiffeh in particular was a HUGE advocate of lynching Vaxkiller, and Spiffeh was already bussing Something_smart! Furthermore, Vaxkiller's choice in roles and his usage of what he has is town enough. He's been sharing them and the things shared have actually been useful for scumhunting purposes. I just really don't see him as scum.

GreyICE was a dead man walking when the SK's nuke was flying. He had every reason to believe he was going to die, and there was NOTHING he could do to stop it--the intercept had been used already on Reck, and the SK wasn't going to recall their nuke for any reason. So he knew he was going to die. What did he do? He gave plenty of content and tried to leave some final thoughts for us all. He put in time and effort for some solid, actual analysis. He also has been in general fairly obviously town even outside of that. So while it's not impossible he's scum, it's incredibly improbable.

That leaves you with Nahdia, SpyreX, Cephrir, MagnaofIllusion, and Lady Lambdadelta.

Nahdia took counterintelligence very publicly. This is fairly suicidal in the long-term for scum: Nahdia needed to die on policy before the end of the game in order to verify the accuracy of GiF's results. (Technically still true, because a Nahdia-hiplop scumteam is THEORETICALLY possible. Even though pragmatically we know hiplop's the SK.) Furthermore, the amount of time and effort Nahdia is putting forward, the thoughts they are giving, and basically everything I'm seeing, looks good...

...But it's not outside the realm of possible for Nahdia to be scum. Nahdia is a strong scum player, who favors bold tactics that favor their team's wincon in the longterm, and could rely on their unique blend of content (not too much and not too little) and charisma to keep them afloat long enough to endgame the town. That's why they're townish, but not town enough to join the others.

I just explained SpyreX. Basically, nothing SpyreX has done has been town. I have zero reason to call him town. Outside of...gut. I have a gut townread on him, but if I am wrong on at least 2/3 of my scumreads, then he'd be the first place to look for scum.

Cephrir I nuked knowing I was nuking the doctor, because I believed I was nuking a scum doctor. Cephrir has treated me in a way I have NEVER seen him treat me before as town, in all the games he and I have known each other, and that is one of the main reasons I developed a scumread on him. He knew I was fond of gambits, yet he didn't try to sort out what sort of gambit I was pulling. He knew I was a quirky player, yet he brushed me off. He knows that I get paranoid of him as the game responds, yet his response to me acting on that paranoia was a "fuck you!" rather than the normal level of understanding he has. He knows that I am town, and isn't at all weirded out by how he didn't know what I was doing. The failure to protect someone is another damning point against him. His refusal to commit suicide is another.

But then, in spite of him knowing I have zero intention to recall my nuke, he's been giving things that it doesn't make sense for him to give if he knows he's flipping scum in 48 hours. Interactions also make me somewhat unsure of this, because if LLD is scum, the way she is treating Cephrir seems more like Ceph-as-town than as scum. (Though not impossible.) There's other stuff, too, like my original townread there that contributes to this, so I'm not sure if he's flipping scum or not. There's a lot for him, and a decent amount against him.

MagnaofIllusion is...not really an actual scumread. Rather. I always scumread Magna. Always. Yet a few things. One thing--I forget what--made me think he was town earlier, a towntell he did that I have since forgotten. That opinion has changed, in part because of something. If I feel like being smug about MoI being wrong...chances are that MoI is actually scum, not just town that was wrong. Furthermore, MoI was a scumread of SAD, and I want to believe SAD had at least one scumread right. MoI's justification of the SAD lynch was also godawful so there was that.

This is, of course, not much beyond what could amount to playstyle and hopes. There is no smoking gun, as it were. No definite sign one way or another that he is or is not scum. But I'll tell you what he doesn't have: a clear reason for being town. The reasons I hold him negatively might not be reasons to someone else, but I do not hold any reasons to have him positively, and in this game, with this much POE, that much alone is enough to land him at number two.

And number one goes back to LLD. LLD was a scumread early-on because of her tone, more or less, and also what she was doing. She was giving the appearance of being helpful, without actually DOING anything helpful. Her defense of Something_smart reeked of being white knighting. But then, Something_smart flipped scum, and I thought that if she were scum she wouldn't have defended her scumbuddy that hard. Furthermore, she picked up on my lack of a read on her D2 in a way that I didn't think came from scum, and she actually had some real pushes which were actually good.

Nothing about D3 changed much, either, in that I saw a lot from her that was better, in that she was actually feeling sincere about her need to force the scum to kill her. It seemed like a legitimate plan for her to pull off, too. But then, she rebounded back into scum. Thought like, maybe she really did hard-defend her scumbuddy, trying to keep them alive, and relying on it being too-stupid-to-actually-be-scum wifom post-lynch to not condemn her. And her pushes today. None of them have been great. And while she would flame people regardless of her alignment, the way she is flaming players--in particular, me--feels like it is her scumgame manipulating players and trying to paint EVERY dead town player as incompetent morons to be ignored even if said players may have actually held legitimate points.

Plus, she hasn't actually given much in the way of reasons behind her pushes. She'll scream, "BURN THIS MOTHERFUCKER" all day long...yet she won't give reasons behind it. Oh, she'll attack logic behind pushes well enough. She'll point out how shitty an action is plenty, especially if it's mechanical. (Because manipulating mechanics is a favorite move of hers as scum, so she DOES know her mechanical play.) But she won't show reasons for why a player is scum. She's pointing out reasons why a player is a fucking awful human being. Those two are NOT synonymous.

I'd call this a "real" final readslist, but my reads might change before the end of the night with how rapidly this game is going. It is, however, a real readslist as of now.
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Post Post #4937 (isolation #297) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:00 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4912, Cephrir wrote:I made a terrible mistake, but to be honest, I'd probably do it again because I'm a piece of shit. Mastin's nuke without knowing this, was shit, even if she got somewhat lucky.
You say luck.

I say basic fucking common sense.

I figured GreyICE was not the doctor.
I also figured Magna "dies N1" does not select Doctor.

Ergo. You were the doctor.
It didn't take a genius to deduce.
And I was under the impression the doctor was scum.
So, bam. Nuked you. It really was that simple. Figured you were the doctor, figured the doctor was scum, nuked the doctor.

No luck involved.
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Post Post #4942 (isolation #298) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:11 pm

Post by mastina »

Mod: how does the failsafe interact with the submarine?
It says in the Q & A that the failsafe will activate off of a submarine shot, but it doesn't say whether it uses the missile silo rules of nuking-the-nuker or the stealth bomb rules of vengekilling.
Furthermore, if the failsafe is activated in a way that the player controlling it is not yet dead (e.g. missile silo), is the player automatically informed it has activated?

Important questions here.
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Post Post #4944 (isolation #299) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:15 pm

Post by mastina »

I mean, the mod's answers make a difference.
You hold a point if the failsafe holder is informed of any nuclear launch against them. GreyICE is the weakest of the players I have written off as town so it would be worth revisiting his alignment if you're right.

But if the failsafe holder is not informed of a sub strike against them, then I maintain it more likely that GreyICE is town than not.

Unfortunately by the time I read the mod's answers there's a 50% chance we'll be past the recall point on nukes anyway so it's not like my feedback at that point makes much of a game's difference.
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Post Post #4947 (isolation #300) » Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:31 pm

Post by mastina »

Eh.
VOTE: MagnaofIllusion.
I'll give you this out of respect to the possibility, you have that much.
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Post Post #4989 (isolation #301) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:05 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4949, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Cephrir's sudden absence and refusal to swallow the poison pill is very telling.
To be fair: he'll claim he went to sleep. And he'll be telling the truth--the timestamp of your message was 4:45 AM. Cephrir lives in my timezone (my state, even), so that means it was 4:45 at his time.

However, the time of MY last post was 1:31 AM. His last post was at 10:34 PM. So he went to sleep some time between 10:34 PM and then, which is not at all an unreasonable time to go to sleep. (Not everyone is like me.)

All the same: the fact that he didn't commit suicide is indeed very telling. Especially since if he's a normal human being with a job, he'd get done by, oh, say, 6:00 PM or so, which is about five hours from now.
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Post Post #4998 (isolation #302) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:16 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4950, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Spoiler: Blahblah
@UT – Do not under any circumstances recall that Nuke
.
Game is at a tipping point. Clearing players as either Mafia or Terrorist is paramount for endgame purposes. And mastina needs to die anyway for the copious WIFOM she’s drowned the thread in about how she’d play as alignment blah blah blah.
Right now we know the following –
LLD is not the Terrorist (Blocked by Reck on a Night the Terrorist Nightkill went through).
Hiplop is not Mafia (Both GiF’s investigation which has little chance of being Tailored and nuking Nukebringer)

That’s all the concrete evidence we have. UT is very likely not Mafia being a significant counter-wagon to SS (which Vax also was so I’m not hella thrilled with the Nuke on Vax but he could be the Terrorist I guess). But that isn’t concrete. So confirming whether Spyrex chose to preempt and of the Nukes WITHOUT him claiming it in thread is good for both sorting the targets and Spyrex’s possible motivations.

Personally the fact that GiF only dies to Commie strike after the Radar player is Nuked has me leaning wanting Cephrir dead. And his play after mastina launched the nuke doesn’t help.
--
In post 4807, mastina wrote:In short, I've been right on every player being town. (Well, except Ircher. That one caught me off-guard.) It's the scumflips I've been wrong about.
And when you think about it, this is a natural consequence of my playstyle, which focuses on an "innocent until proven guilty" approach. It's easier to townhunt and name town than it is to scumhunt and name scum.
Literally this is the exact profile of Mafia scum who are allergic to bussing. Which is why mastina needs to be a glowing crater in the next 36 hours so mastina isn't anywhere near endgame. Of course Cephrir flipping Commie means she isn't but it appears that isn't happening until after the recall period.
--
In post 4874, Cephrir wrote:Who fucking cares? Cheet, GIF, Cheet. Yeah, I'm sure I didn't say that in your mind because it was just too darn hard to make up.
So you didn’t protect the claimed Cop N1? I mean you were clearly in the group that knew mastina’s theory on GiF being a scum counter-claimer to SS was moronic so you had to feel GiF was Town. Yet you took a chance the Terrorist would hit there even if it was fucking minimal?
Just wanted to take the opportunity to point out, regardless of Cephrir's alignment, this is scumposting. Magna is trying to have it both ways here, to eat his cake while having it too. He's casting doubt not only on Cephrir, but also on me. He's calling for BOTH of our deaths, ignoring the fact that the death of one holds great relevance to the fate of the other. His reasoning for wanting me dead is also something he knows for a FACT to not be alignment-indicative: no fucking shit I talk about what I do as both alignments. That's kind-of my thing. He calls it wifom bullshit, I call it part of mastina being mastina. He's not scumreading me for my actions--rather the opposite, he's basically
praising
the nuke on Cephrir. Yet he wants me dead anyway.

It's also a useless fluff post, in that he gives no tangible reads. Okay. So hiplop isn't a Russian. No duh. LLD isn't the serial killer. No duh. So what are his scumreads? What are his townreads? And what reason is there behind them? He gives nothing. He states a waffly opinion on UT, but refuses to take a hard stance there. His indifference to the Vaxkiller nuke is also telling.

I suppose it's possible Cephrir is scum here, but it would not at all surprise me if MoI is rejoicing that we have THREE town players being nuked right now because that's exactly what he needs.
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Post Post #5000 (isolation #303) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:18 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4964, Vaxkiller wrote:make sure to unearth this one
This sounds an awful lot like something relevant to either MoI or LLD.
It could theoretically be relevant to Cephrir if that message was made prior to my nuke on him, but it seems like it's scum preparing to make a point. The two players who have most made a point today are LLD and Magna.
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Post Post #5005 (isolation #304) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:21 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4971, Vaxkiller wrote:is admiring sam possible
___________________
Could this eavessdrop be cephir saying
"Can I target myself with doc?"
Huh.
I've got a different take on that.

I think I'm sam.
Which isn't too out of this world.
mas
tina. Just switch the s and the m.

The message fits as something literally almost any of the players alive here would say: "Is admiring mastina even possible?"
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Post Post #5014 (isolation #305) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:30 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4986, MagnaofIllusion wrote:And hell - the fact that they chose him over Reck or GiF says they had a vested interest in keeping all Nukes airborne.
You say this, yet you feel suspicious of both me (someone who was near-guaranteed to be nuked), and Cephrir (someone I made it clear I was going to nuke).

Sure the scum had a vested interest in keeping the nukes airborne! It's called "town were gonna nuke the shit out of one another", and lo and behold. The only one of the three nukes in the air which could POSSIBLY hit scum is the one heading towards Cephrir, and even that's not a surefire bet. (Literally only a 50/50 chance.)
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Post Post #5016 (isolation #306) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:32 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4987, GreyICE wrote:P.S. Looking at the role distribution... yeah, the commies still have a nuke. The commies were nuke loving bastards.
I'm flipping town in 36 hours. Not me.
hiplop has a cop check proving he's not Russian. Not him.

The ONLY two players left with nukes aside from us are Untrod Tripod and Cheetory6. Which of them, pray tell, are you calling a Russian?

The Russians don't have any nukes left.
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Post Post #5024 (isolation #307) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:41 am

Post by mastina »

In post 4992, Vaxkiller wrote:peggy: maybe alice?
______________________________________

expect adverse effect to peggy from 294 but if needed maybe

might also cause reverse
______________________________________

that would be great
even better for peggy if it happens without alice delivering
______________________________________

peggy admire neil ?
So I agree here that peggy is a scum player, and does indeed have a role. That limits the pool down to GI/MoI/Cephrir/SpyreX/Nahdia/LLD. From there, I can say I sincerely doubt Peggy means Nahdia.
Peggy might refer to SpyreX. Peggy refers to a player who pulled a stunt in-thread, which the scum were expecting potential adverse effects to...yet also thought it might be the opposite, that people could townread Peggy for the stunt. 294 clearly refers to the scum topic post where the plan is outlined for what Peggy is going to do in-thread.

Alice is probably GiF. Alice is a town player. Alice was also delivering, that means, role actioning. Pretty much the only players the scum knew were roles with actions are Reck and GiF. So here, the reference to Peggy refers to an event the scum think would be great, ESPECIALLY if GiF couldn't deliver something.
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Post Post #5029 (isolation #308) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:45 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5009, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Mastina is calling me scum rejoicing in three Town being nuked. And yet she has the complete ability to call back that Nuke on Cephir.
Yes. I have also stated that, one, Cephrir is still potentially flipping scum, and two, even if he flips town that is valuable--nay,
vital
--information for the town to have.

In short, it doesn't matter what his alignment is. He needs to die anyway.
I was very clear about this earlier, but thanks for trying to paint this as scummy.
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Post Post #5033 (isolation #309) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:50 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5022, Andrius wrote:
In post 5008, GreyICE wrote:
Andrius, does a specific scum player submit the kill?
No, the factional nightkill is not assigned to any one member.
This explains why the Radar and Fighter cannot track or learn factional abilities, respectively.

The Terrorist benefits from a similar clause in that his kill is also a factional ability, being a product of his alignment and not the draft itself.
So what you're saying here is, the nightkills cannot be blocked at all by the aircraft carrier?


Well, uh.

Cancel launch
.
Technically I should wait for the mod to say yes.
But if the mod says yes. Then that means either Ceph stopped the scum kill (making him town), or the scum killed the holder of the airbase (which is either MoI or GreyICE), making THEM town.

It also technically reopens the gate for LLD to be the serial killer, but that's hiplop anyway.
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Post Post #5042 (isolation #310) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:07 am

Post by mastina »

So at this point.
Vaxkiller is town. He will presumably (short of sabotage) be flipping such. Cephrir is town. (I mean it's possible Cephrir's scum doc and scum hit the town airbase, but I'm going to bank on this.)
hiplop is not Russian. Neither am I.

SpyreX/MoI/LLD/UT/Cheetory/GreyICE/Nahdia.
Of those names, at this stage I'm actually most willing to call Nahdia town.

GreyICE/MoI are getting a pass until we see the sk's nuke go up. (Though, I happen to think that if MoI has the aircraft carrier, and he didn't vie for being investigated by the cop, he's more likely to be scum than not.)

So...of SpyreX/LLD/UT/Cheetory, there is at least one scum. Two, if you think both the aircraft carrier and the deadhand are town.

Tell me, in that group, who do you think the scum are? It's a serious question that I pose to literally everyone. In particular, GreyICE, Cephrir, LLD, MoI, Cheetory, and preferably also SpyreX and UT. Nahdia's input would be appreciated as well.

There is going to be one scum in that group at minimum. This is a belief you especially should be holding true if you're outside the group, e.g. Nahdia knows their alignment, Ceph knows his. Who of those four is/are scum?
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Post Post #5045 (isolation #311) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:09 am

Post by mastina »

I.

Uh.

I kinda think I should be doing this.

VOTE: Cheetory6.
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Post Post #5047 (isolation #312) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:10 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5044, GreyICE wrote:So you think that MoI, with the aircraft carrier, should have asked for a cop investigate? Walk me through that one Mastina.
Derp.
I forgot that airbase isn't bulletproof, and is more akin to a perma-commute. Nevermind on that point.
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Post Post #5048 (isolation #313) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:12 am

Post by mastina »

Mod: if the aircraft carrier blocked the holder of a submarine, would the submarine still be able to launch the next day?

Just so we're not working under any
other
false assumptions here.
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Post Post #5054 (isolation #314) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:37 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5052, GreyICE wrote:Not sold on you being town either Mastina, recall or no recall.
There's a nuke headed my way.
I just threw my chances of having that nuke cancelled away, because the CONDITION of the nuke headed my way being canceled was that if Cephrir failed to kill himself (he did), UT would come on and cancel the nuke heading my way, and allow my nuke to hit Cephrir.

I literally sealed my fate by canceling the Ceph nuke. I was going to live if I let it go, because UT was going to cancel the nuke if Ceph didn't kill himself. But now, I have breached my contract. I did not hold up MY end of the bargain. So now I am going to die, period, end of discussion. You know how I know this?

Because it was UT who nuked me. If SpyreX sabotaged UT's nuke, that quite literally would be called a scumclaim on SpyreX's part. Never in a MILLION years would SpyreX dare sabotage UT. So there's absolutely zero chance of a nuke sabotage on me, and I'm the ONLY player being nuked who has that. (SpyreX could have sabotaged me, hiplop, OR Cheetory last night, especially me or hiplop.) And we saw from yesterday that even when UT had EVERY DAMN REASON to recall his nuke on Reck, he did not.

So there's no talking my way out of this.
There is absolutely zero wiggle room. No way of holding sway over UT. No way to convince him to blow the nuke up. There's nobody in this town who COULD convince him. And even if there was! Let's say, for instance. Even if, saaaaay, LLD was able to successfully bargain with him such that if she told him to, he would.

There's no way to convince THAT PERSON I am WORTH saving.
Absolutely none.

So I am dead.
Period.
End. of. discussion.

I have a little over one day until I die, but that nuke is never getting recalled so make no mistake.
I am going to die.

And with that knowledge.
I tell you.
If I were scum the best thing I could possibly do is shut the fuck up and not be talking/helping right now, because as scum my job is to give as little information as humanly possible.

I'm not scum.

Fuck, the fact that I canceled the Cephrir nuke is evidence enough of that. Aside from the fact that I had a deal in which me nuking Cephrir meant UT might cancel his nuke on me (meaning, nuking Ceph = chance of me living, me canceling = no chance of me living), there's the fact that Cephrir isn't scum especially if you think I am scum so why the fuck, as scum being nuked, do I CANCEL the nuke headed towards the fucking town doctor?

I am town.
Period.

I will be flipping town.
Vaxkiller is also going to be flipping town, unless SpyreX sabotaged hiplop's nuke.
So yes. While I am still alive. I am demanding people answer for my inevitable townflip, who they think the scum are.
Wishing for a scumflip won't make one materialize. The SAD lynch should have taught you that.
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Post Post #5058 (isolation #315) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:46 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5049, Cheetory6 wrote:LLD and Spyrex are my kneejerk scumreads.

I really don't see why Nahdia/you/Vax are out of the pile though.

Like, sure? I flux between thinking there's townie moments from you and Nahdia and to some extent I struggle to imagine Vax being able to come up with all of this for so long.
But that's literally nothing that would make me pull all of you out of the sortpile entirely. That's fucking ridiculous.
To address the bolded: see also my reply to GreyICE. I signed my fate when I launched, then canceled, a nuke on Cephrir. I could have maybe lived if I pandered to people on who to nuke. I could have maybe lived if I chose to keep the nuke going on Cephrir without canceling it. But I made the choice to nuke him because I didn't care about my own life, I knew I was going to be dead sooner rather than later and frankly am surprised it's taken this LONG to get a nuke headed my way. And then I made the choice that I'd rather die and NOT nuke the doctor than live while nuking the fucking town doctor. With only the chance of SpyreX sabotaging me again to stop the missile past a certain point. So I'm out of contention because no fucking duh. I'm flipping town in less than 36 hours. No ifs. No ands. No buts. Just pure, simple, fact. No way to convince UT to call it off. Tell me I'm wrong there. Tell me that I, knowing what I know about UT, think he would EVER back down. Think he would ever back off. Think he would ever recall that nuke. He won't. So I'm dead. Period. And I am telling you, in advance, exactly what you know will happen: I am flipping town.

The only name in there that isn't surefire town is Nahdia. And Nahdia is basically the player I feel least likely to be scum, between a combination of the scum chatter (it doesn't seem to fit), Nahdia's open declaration of role, and Nahdia's content in the game, along with how players have been pushing for Nahdia's death. Nahdia's role is useless to the scum as of today. Additionally: with the radar out of play and down to only two scum members...why would the scum bother killing the cop with Nahdia's role in play? She could just tailor her scumbuddy and hope for an innocent. So it makes no sense that a scumteam with Nahdia's role would actually bother killing GiF, ESPECIALLY when the doctor is in the game.
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Post Post #5072 (isolation #316) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:03 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1625, Andrius wrote:Vaxkiller [9] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, SpyreX,
Fate
,
Something_Smart
, Cheetory6, Cephrir,
Spiffeh
,
Accountant, Papa Zito

Ser Arthur Dayne
[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Something_Smart
[2] -
Ircher, GuyInFreezer

Untrod Tripod [1] -
xRECKONERx

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -
mastina

Not Voting [7] - Everyone Else
In post 1701, Andrius wrote:Vaxkiller [9] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, SpyreX,
Fate
, Cheetory6, Cephrir,
Spiffeh
,
Papa Zito
, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion
Untrod Tripod [5] -
xRECKONERx, Ircher, Accountant, mastina
,
Something_Smart

Ser Arthur Dayne
[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Something_Smart
[1] -
GuyInFreezer

Not Voting [5] - Everyone Else
In post 1782, Andrius wrote:Vaxkiller [9] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, SpyreX,
Fate
, Cheetory6, Cephrir,
Spiffeh
, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion,
Nukebringer

Untrod Tripod [6] -
xRECKONERx, Ircher, Accountant, mastina
,
Something_Smart
,
Papa Zito
Ser Arthur Dayne
[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Something_Smart
[1] -
GuyInFreezer
McMenno [1] - RedCoyote

Not Voting [3] - Untrod Tripod,
hiplop
, Nahdia
In post 1950, Andrius wrote:Vaxkiller [10] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, SpyreX,
Fate
, Cephrir,
Spiffeh
, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion,
Nukebringer
,
Accountant, xRECKONERx

Untrod Tripod [5] -
Ircher, mastina
,
Something_Smart
,
Papa Zito
, Cheetory6
Ser Arthur Dayne
[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Something_Smart
[2] -
GuyInFreezer
, Untrod Tripod
McMenno [1] - RedCoyote
Not Voting [2] - hiplop
, Nahdia
In post 2119, Andrius wrote:Vaxkiller [9] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, SpyreX,
Fate
,
Spiffeh
, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion,
Nukebringer
,
Accountant, xRECKONERx

Untrod Tripod [4] -
mastina
,
Something_Smart
,
Papa Zito
, Cheetory6
Something_Smart
[4] -
GuyInFreezer
, Untrod Tripod,
RedCoyote
, Cephrir
Ser Arthur Dayne
[2] - Lady Lambdadelta, Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola
McMenno [1] - Ircher
Not Voting [2] - hiplop
, Nahdia
In post 2205, Andrius wrote:Vaxkiller [7] - SpyreX,
Fate
,
Spiffeh
, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion,
Nukebringer
, Lady Lambdadelta
Untrod Tripod [5] -
mastina, Papa Zito
, Cheetory6,
Ser Arthur Dayne, xRECKONERx

Something_Smart
[5] -
GuyInFreezer
, Untrod Tripod,
RedCoyote
, Cephrir,
Accountant
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola
Ser Arthur Dayne
[1] - Vaxkiller
McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer
[1] -
Something_Smart

Not Voting [2] -
hiplop
, Nahdia
In post 2325, Andrius wrote:Untrod Tripod [7] -
mastina, Papa Zito
, Cheetory6,
Ser Arthur Dayne, xRECKONERx
,
Nukebringer
, SpyreX
Something_Smart
[7] -
GuyInFreezer
, Untrod Tripod,
RedCoyote
, Cephrir,
Accountant
, MagnaofIllusion,
Spiffeh

Vaxkiller [3] - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta,
Fate
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola
McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer
[1] -
Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [2] -
hiplop
, Nahdia
In post 2516, Andrius wrote:Untrod Tripod [5] -
mastina
, Cheetory6,
Ser Arthur Dayne
,
Nukebringer
,
Fate
mastina
[5] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,
Papa Zito, GuyInFreezer
, Untrod Tripod
Something_Smart
[5] -
RedCoyote
, Cephrir,
Accountant
, MagnaofIllusion,
Spiffeh

Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Vaxkiller [1] - GreyICE
McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer
[1] -
Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [3] -
hiplop
, Nahdia,
xRECKONERx
In post 2579, Andrius wrote:
Something_Smart
[8] -
RedCoyote
, Cephrir,
Accountant
, MagnaofIllusion,
Spiffeh
, Untrod Tripod,
GuyInFreezer
,
Nukebringer

Untrod Tripod [6] -
mastina
, Cheetory6,
Ser Arthur Dayne, Fate
, Nahdia,
McMenno
mastina
[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,
Papa Zito
Ircher [1] - ErrantParabola

Vaxkiller [1] - GreyICE
McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer
[1] -
Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [2] -
hiplop, xRECKONERx
In post 2662, Andrius wrote:Untrod Tripod [10] -
mastina
, Cheetory6,
Ser Arthur Dayne, Fate
, Nahdia,
McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola, Accountant
,
Nukebringer
Something_Smart
[6] -
RedCoyote
, Cephrir, MagnaofIllusion,
Spiffeh
, Untrod Tripod,
GuyInFreezer
mastina
[4] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,
Papa Zito
, GreyICE
McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer
[1] -
Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [1] -
xRECKONERx
In post 2701, Andrius wrote:Untrod Tripod [10] -
mastina, Ser Arthur Dayne
, Nahdia,
McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola, Accountant
,
Nukebringer
,
Ircher
, MagnaofIllusion
Something_Smart
[5] -
RedCoyote
, Cephrir,
Spiffeh
, Untrod Tripod,
GuyInFreezer, Fate
mastina
[4] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,
Papa Zito
, GreyICE
GuyInFreezer
[1] -
Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [2] -
xRECKONERx
, Cheetory6
In post 2753, Andrius wrote:
Something_Smart
[10] -
RedCoyote
, Cephrir,
Spiffeh
, Untrod Tripod,
GuyInFreezer, Fate
, SpyreX,
Accountant
, MagnaofIllusion, GreyICE
Untrod Tripod [8] -
mastina, Ser Arthur Dayne
, Nahdia,
McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola
,
Nukebringer
,
Ircher
mastina
[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Papa Zito
GuyInFreezer
[1] -
Something_Smart

Not Voting [3] -
xRECKONERx
, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller
In post 2775, Andrius wrote:
Something_Smart
[10] -
RedCoyote
,
Spiffeh
, Untrod Tripod,
GuyInFreezer, Fate
, SpyreX,
Accountant
, MagnaofIllusion, GreyICE,
Nukebringer

Untrod Tripod [9] -
mastina, Ser Arthur Dayne
, Nahdia,
McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola, Ircher
,
Something_Smart
, Cephrir
mastina
[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Papa Zito
Not Voting [3] - xRECKONERx
, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller
In post 2889, Andrius wrote:Untrod Tripod [11] -
mastina, Ser Arthur Dayne
, Nahdia,
McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola, Ircher
,
Something_Smart
, Vaxkiller,
Fate
,
Spiffeh

Something_Smart
[7] -
RedCoyote
, Untrod Tripod,
GuyInFreezer, Accountant
, MagnaofIllusion,
Nukebringer
, Cephrir
mastina
[3] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Papa Zito
, SpyreX
Lady Lambdadelta [1] - GreyICE
Not Voting [2] -
xRECKONERx
, Cheetory6
In post 2937, Andrius wrote:Untrod Tripod [9] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, Nahdia,
McMenno, ErrantParabola, Ircher
,
Something_Smart
, Vaxkiller,
Fate, RedCoyote

Something_Smart
[5] - Untrod Tripod,
GuyInFreezer, Accountant
, MagnaofIllusion,
Nukebringer

mastina
[4] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Papa Zito
, SpyreX, GreyICE
Lady Lambdadelta [1] -
mastina
ErrantParabola [1] - hiplop
RedCoyote
[1] - Cephrir
Not Voting [3] -
xRECKONERx
, Cheetory6,
Spiffeh
In post 3050, Andrius wrote:Untrod Tripod [9] -
Ser Arthur Dayne
, Nahdia,
McMenno, ErrantParabola, Ircher
,
Something_Smart
, Vaxkiller,
Fate
,
Nukebringer

mastina
[8] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Papa Zito
, SpyreX, GreyICE,
xRECKONERx, Accountant
, Untrod Tripod,
RedCoyote

Something_Smart
[2] -
GuyInFreezer
, MagnaofIllusion
Vaxkiller [2] - Cheetory6,
Spiffeh

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -
mastina
ErrantParabola [1] - hiplop
RedCoyote
[1] - Cephrir
In post 3145, Andrius wrote:Untrod Tripod [8] - Nahdia,
McMenno, ErrantParabola, Ircher
,
Something_Smart
, Vaxkiller,
Fate
,
Nukebringer

mastina
[6] - Lady Lambdadelta,
Papa Zito
, SpyreX,
xRECKONERx, Accountant, RedCoyote

Something_Smart
[3] -
GuyInFreezer
, MagnaofIllusion, Untrod Tripod
Lady Lambdadelta [3] -
mastina
, GreyICE,
Ser Arthur Dayne

Vaxkiller [2] - Cheetory6,
Spiffeh

ErrantParabola [1] - hiplop
RedCoyote
[1] - Cephrir
In post 3478, Andrius wrote:
Ser Arthur Dayne
[12] - MagnaofIllusion,
RedCoyote
, Vaxkiller,
hiplop, GuyInFreezer
, Lady Lambdadelta,
xRECKONERx
, Cephrir, Nahdia,
Ircher
, GreyICE,
McMenno

Nukebringer
[3] - Cheetory6,
Spiffeh
, Untrod Tripod
RedCoyote [1] - mastina

Not Voting [6] - Everyone else
In post 3725, Andrius wrote:
Errantparabola
[7] - GreyICE,
Nukebringer
, Lady Lambdadelta,
GuyInFreezer
, MagnaofIllusion, SpyreX, Untrod Tripod
Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina
, Nahdia,
Accountant
McMenno [1] - Ircher

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -
xRECKONERx
In post 3800, Andrius wrote:
Errantparabola
[7] - GreyICE,
Nukebringer
, Lady Lambdadelta,
GuyInFreezer
, SpyreX, Untrod Tripod, Cephrir
Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina
, Nahdia,
Accountant
McMenno [1] - Ircher

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -
xRECKONERx
hiplop
[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [6] - Everyone else
In post 4025, Andrius wrote:
Errantparabola
[4] - GreyICE,
Nukebringer
,
GuyInFreezer
, Cephrir
Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina
, Nahdia,
Accountant

Lady Lambdadelta [2] -
xRECKONERx, Ircher
hiplop
[1] - MagnaofIllusion
mastina
[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyrX
Not Voting [6] - Everyone else
In post 4060, Andrius wrote:
Ircher [5] - McMenno, mastina
, Nahdia,
Accountant, RedCoyote
Errantparabola
[4] - GreyICE,
Nukebringer
,
GuyInFreezer
, Cephrir
mastina
[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX
Lady Lambdadelta [1] -
xRECKONERx
hiplop
[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [6] - Everyone else
In post 4136, Andrius wrote:
Ircher [5] - McMenno, mastina
, Nahdia,
Accountant, RedCoyote
mastina
[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX
McMenno [3] - Ircher
, Cephrir,
Nukebringer

Errantparabola
[2] - GreyICE,
GuyInFreezer

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -
xRECKONERx
hiplop
[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [5] -
Papa Zito, hiplop
, Cheetory6,
Errantparabola
, Vaxkiller
In post 4259, Andrius wrote:
Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina, Accountant, RedCoyote
mastina
[4] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX,
xRECKONERx
McMenno [3] - Ircher
, Cephrir,
Nukebringer

Errantparabola
[2] - GreyICE,
GuyInFreezer
Accountant [1] - Papa Zito
hiplop
[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [5] -
hiplop
, Cheetory6,
Errantparabola
, Vaxkiller, Nahdia
In post 4325, Andrius wrote:
mastina
[5] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX,
xRECKONERx
, GreyICE
McMenno [4] - Ircher
, Cephrir,
Nukebringer
,
Accountant
Ircher [2] - McMenno, mastina
Errantparabola [1] - GuyInFreezer
Accountant [1] - Papa Zito
hiplop
[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [5] -
hiplop
, Cheetory6,
Errantparabola
, Vaxkiller, Nahdia
In post 4407, Andrius wrote:
McMenno [5] - Ircher
, Cephrir,
Nukebringer
,
Accountant
, GreyICE
mastina
[4] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX,
xRECKONERx
Ircher [3] - McMenno, mastina
, MagnaofIllusion
Accountant [1] - Papa Zito
Not Voting [5] - hiplop
, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller, Nahdia,
GuyInFreezer
In post 4554, Andrius wrote:
McMenno [6] - Ircher
, Cephrir,
Accountant
, GreyICE,
xRECKONERx, McMenno
mastina
[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX
Ircher [1] - mastina
Not Voting [6] - hiplop
, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller, Nahdia,
GuyInFreezer
, MagnaofIllusion
In post 4650, Andrius wrote:
McMenno
[4] - Cephrir,
Accountant, McMenno
, Lady Lambdadelta
mastina
[2] - Untrod Tripod, SpyreX
Ircher [1] - mastina

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -
xRECKONERx

MagnaofIllusion[1] - GreyICE
Not Voting [7] -
hiplop
, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller, Nahdia,
GuyInFreezer
, MagnaofIllusion,
Ircher
In post 4762, Andrius wrote:
McMenno
[8] - Cephrir,
McMenno
, Lady Lambdadelta, Nahdia, Cheetory6,
xRECKONERx
, SpyreX,
GuyInFreezer

MagnaofIllusion[2] - GreyICE,
mastina
mastina
[1] - Untrod Tripod
Lady Lambdadelta [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [2] -
hiplop
, MagnaofIllusion
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Post Post #5074 (isolation #317) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:31 pm

Post by mastina »

Things that immediately stick out:
-Vaxkiller is not a Russian.
That, or literally every fucking scumbuddy decided to bus him at some point. Something_smart, Spiffeh, and Nukebringer were all prominently on his wagon. Seriously. He is not flipping Russian. I almost greened his name out for this analysis, but I restrained because there's a significant chance SpyreX sabotaged hiplop's nuke so technically he won't be flipping if the nuke fails. Still, all the same: Vaxkiller is NOT a Russian.
-UT is also not a Russian. This is obvious from his voting history and also his persistent nature as a counterwagon to Something_smart, along with the fact that scum were evenly distributed between him and Vaxkiller.
-Another player who looks good by the VCA is Cephrir. While he was on the Vaxkiller wagon, he was among the first to push Something_smart, and among the last to hop off. He did hop off on to UT, and then to RedCoyote, so his record's not as good as UT's is, but it's more likely than not that he's town.

-SpyreX in contrast looks pretty bad: he chose the Vaxkiller wagon. In , given the choice between UT and Something_smart, he chose UT. He also switched to me in . He did eventually join--in , during optimal bussing range. And at the first available opportunity (by ), he was back off of that wagon. (Which by the way marked Cephrir's return.)
-Nahdia is another name who doesn't look so great: didn't wagon many people, and when they have, it's been on town.
-LLD is another name to watch as not the best in appearance.

-MoI, GreyICE, and Cheetory all have so-so histories: nothing in their voting history is damning, but nothing in it is particularly promising, either.

-Unless you think all eight names listed in are town, there's probably at least one scum on my wagon. If we assume that UT is town (safe), the possibilities there are LLD, SpyreX, and GreyICE. I think we'll find at least one mafia there. Possibly two, though that's not strong. , last useful votecount of the day, suggests it's between LLD/SpyreX, though GreyICE could be scum who switched off to start a counterwagon on LLD.

-Look at that SAD lynch. We can safely assume Vaxkiller and Cephrir are town on it. But that leaves MoI/LLD/Nahdia/GreyICE.
Unless the scum went out of their way to create an all-town lynch, it's a fairly safe bet there's at least one if not two scum in there.

-The Errant wagon in is also pretty terrible. Between GreyICE/LLD/Magna/SpyreX, there's no way that's all town.
Though, of note, if there were scum on Ircher Nahdia's the only possible candidate.
- takes Magna off of Errant, though he's switched from one town to another.

-In , with UT as town, I have a strong inclination once again to think both of LLD/SpyreX cannot be town.

-It's worth noting GreyICE did some switching around. he went from Errant, , and then , the mislynch for that day.
Meanwhile, Magna moved to Ircher in --that's actually a sign to me against Magna being scum, given that Nukebringer spent their last moment nuking Ircher. There's the chance he went there for the town credit, as in, "Look at me making this case on this player who I know is about to be nuked and therefore flip town!", but I'm doubtful of that.
-I'd like to point to the progression between , , and . In the first, the only one not proven to be town on that L-2 wagon is GreyICE (assuming Cephrir town which is not at all a stretch).
Then, GreyICE switches off, and LLD on.
Then we get the pile-on: Nahdia, Cheetory, AND SpyreX all come on.

Given this, I'd say:
Figure of most interest, SpyreX.
VOTE: SpyreX.
Secondary figures of interest: LLD, Nahdia. (Maybe GreyICE?)
Tertiary interest: Cheetory. (Also, GreyICE if he's not a secondary.)
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Post Post #5076 (isolation #318) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:42 pm

Post by mastina »

hiplop (totally the terrorist though)
Vaxkiller
Cephrir
Untrod Tripod

Nahdia
MagnaofIllusion
Cheetory
GreyICE
Lady Lambdadelta
SpyreX

This is where I'm at right now individually.
Though of note:

I do not believe the scumteam is SpyreX/LLD.

That's a modified either/or.
In that I think one of them is scum, and not the other.
But it's theoretically possible (albeit improbable) for both to be town. (If both are town, GreyICE is basically scum.)

GreyICE is scum if they are both town, but I'm really not sure if he's scum with one of them--it's possible either way. He could be scum with LLD, he could be not scum when LLD is. He could be scum with SpyreX, he could be not scum when SpyreX is.

My feelings about Cheetory and Magna are about equal.
Nahdia I had, five seconds ago, below Cheetory, but while Nahdia does look objectively bad via the VCA, I'm second-guessing calling them scum.
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Post Post #5080 (isolation #319) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:26 pm

Post by mastina »

Okay, so to explain things going through pair analysis: the first four I have on my list aren't Russians. We've established that.

So that leaves six names. Two of them are scum.

I do not think the scumteam is LLD-SpyreX. That pairing doesn't make much sense to me. It's a little difficult to explain, but I don't feel like that's the answer.

LLD-GreyICE is possible, if the husband and wife have planned a distancing routine: they've been going on and off against one another, but neither has really committed to the attack. Case and point: LLD has recently been screaming that GreyICE is scum, but she's not voting him right now.
I'm not sure if it's the most likely right now, though. I don't have anything suggesting this isn't the scumteam, but there's not much supporting it, either. I suppose there's the fact that both voted me--that seems like it's something which wouldn't happen if BOTH were scum.

LLD-Cheetory is possible. Looking through the VCs, aside from the McMenno lynch, they've not ONCE voted together the entire game on a lynch. However, there's not much supporting it, either.

LLD-MoI is possible, and presents the same situation as Cheetory: the only time they have voted together was on the SAD lynch. At all other times, they weren't voting together.

LLD-Nahdia presents a similar one as well, though they vote together on both the SAD and McMenno mislynches. For this reason, it's slightly less likely they are a scumteam than others.

So for LLD-as-scum, I'd rank the teams as, most to least:
LLD-Cheetory (
edit:
or not, realized they both were on Vaxkiller)
LLD-MoI (
edit:
or not; both were on Vaxkiller)
LLD-Nahdia
LLD-GreyICE
LLD-SpyreX.

For the SpyreX teams:
SpyreX-GreyICE is definitely possible: the two of them have not really interacted with one another, at all. Like, at all, at all.
Working against it is that they can and have voted together, often, in places it would be strange to pile on. For instance, both of them were voting me when UT was the large counterwagon to Something_smart. It would be a bit odd if the only scum on UT was Something_smart himself. Still, I suppose it's possible.

SpyreX-Cheetory is also viable, but makes me wonder why they would both be on the McMenno mislynch. They also voted together on Vaxkiller, where Something_smart and Spiffeh both were--I doubt all five scum wanted Vaxkiller dead. Though Cheetory being scum would explain the UT wagon in, say, , so it's certainly possible, not exactly probable though. Especially since they also voted together on the UT wagon ().

SpyreX-MoI runs into a similar problem as Cheetory: if SpyreX and MagnaofIllusion are both scum, then between them, Spiffeh, Something_smart, and Nukebringer, literally every scum in the game would've been on Vaxkiller. For that reason alone, not a likely combo. They also would have been required to have bussed Something_smart along with both Spiffeh and Nukebringer (meaning the entire scumteam on their scumbuddy), which while not impossible, is...rather improbable.

SpyreX-Nahdia is rather viable, and in fact is the most likely of these combos: SpyreX was not on the SAD lynch, whereas Nahdia was. Nahdia avoided Errant and me. The only time they've voted the same person is McMenno.

So for SpyreX-as-scum, I'd rank the teams as, most to least:
SpyreX-Nahdia
SpyreX-GreyICE
SpyreX-MoI
SpyreX-Cheetory
(SpyreX-LLD)

For GreyICE, we start with GI-Cheetory: This presents the same problem as before, as both were on Vaxkiller.
GreyICE and Magna have voted together often, including on Vaxkiller, which places that as an unlikely team as well. That, aside from how if they were both scum they'd know Cephrir was the doctor, so this team's basically being auto-discarded.

By far the most viable of the teams left is GreyICE-Nahdia. Again, just like with SpyreX- and LLD-based teams, they don't vote together: the only time they are together is on the SAD lynch. At all other times, including on McMenno, they are separated.
So for GreyICE, we get:
GreyICE-Nahdia
GreyICE-Cheetory
(GreyICE-SpyreX)
(GreyICE-LLD)
GreyICE-Magna

Cheetory-Magna runs into the same Vaxkiller problem. Seriously, unless you think all five scum voted Vaxkiller, any combination which has two of SpyreX/Cheetory/GreyICE/Magna/LLD must, by necessity, be thrown out.

Nahdia
is
a viable scumbuddy, but it requires them to have both voted UT, as of and beyond: not impossible, but literally the only team which doesn't involve the whole scumteam voting Vaxkiller.

So, for Cheetory, we get:
Cheetory-Nahdia
(Cheetory-GreyICE)
(Cheetory-LLD)
(Cheetory-SpyreX)
Cheetory-MoI

And for Magna, we get:
MoI-Nahdia
(MoI-LLD)
(MoI-SpyreX)
(MoI-Cheetory)
(MoI-GreyICE)

Nahdia'd be:
Nahdia-GreyICE
Nahdia-SpyreX
Nahdia-LLD
Nahdia-Cheetory
Nahdia-MoI

Approximately.

But now I need to order them as a whole.
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Post Post #5081 (isolation #320) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:34 pm

Post by mastina »

If I throw away "whole scumteam on Vaxkiller" pairings, I'm left with:

LLD-Nahdia
SpyreX-Nahdia
GreyICE-Nahdia
Cheetory-Nahdia
Magna-Nahdia

...Huh.

So, uh.

Either the whole scumteam was on the Vaxkiller lynch.
Or Nahdia is scum.

For Nahdia to be town, you must believe that there are two scum in LLD/SpyreX/GreyICE/MagnaofIllusion/Cheetory.
But all five of them were on the Vaxkiller wagon.

Granted, not all at the same time!
GreyICE and Magna joined while both SpyreX and Cheetory were on, sure.
But by the time LLD joined, Cheetory had hopped off.

Also, I have to confess, I made a mistake--Something_smart never did join the wagon, so it's not all five scum.
But point remains:

You must either believe four of the five scum were on Vaxkiller, or that Nahdia is scum.
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Post Post #5082 (isolation #321) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:43 pm

Post by mastina »

Okay so ignoring the whole Vaxkiller situation.
I think this is my pairings feelings.
SpyreX-Nahdia
SpyreX-GreyICE
GreyICE-Nahdia
LLD-Cheetory
LLD-MoI
LLD-Nahdia
GreyICE-Cheetory
Cheetory-Nahdia
Cheetory-MoI
MoI-Nahdia
LLD-GreyICE
SpyreX-Cheetory
SpyreX-MoI
SpyreX-LLD
GreyICE-MoI

I don't have much confidence in this. It's just an approximation. I'm having trouble getting it more precise than this.
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Post Post #5086 (isolation #322) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:50 pm

Post by mastina »

Changed my mind a little bit.
SpyreX-Nahdia
SpyreX-GreyICE
GreyICE-Nahdia
LLD-Cheetory
LLD-MoI
LLD-Nahdia
GreyICE-Cheetory
LLD-GreyICE
SpyreX-Cheetory
SpyreX-MoI
Cheetory-Nahdia
Cheetory-MoI
MoI-Nahdia
SpyreX-LLD
GreyICE-MoI

The scumteams without any combination of GreyICE/LLD/SpreX moved down.

I really think at least one of them are scum. Both isn't impossible if it involves GreyICE, but isn't as probable. I really do think lynching in that group until we hit scum is for the best, because I don't see all three as town.
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Post Post #5088 (isolation #323) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:56 pm

Post by mastina »

Even more tweaks:
SpyreX-Nahdia
SpyreX-GreyICE
GreyICE-Nahdia
LLD-Cheetory
SpyreX-Cheetory
GreyICE-Cheetory
LLD-MoI
LLD-Nahdia
LLD-GreyICE
SpyreX-MoI
Cheetory-Nahdia
Cheetory-MoI
MoI-Nahdia
SpyreX-LLD
GreyICE-MoI

The relevant tweaks here are that Cheetory scumteams that have LLD/SpyreX/GreyICE involved move way up, because he is a huge candidate for being scum with one of the three.
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Post Post #5090 (isolation #324) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:03 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5087, Vaxkiller wrote:Mastina, I really think Nahdia is town.
Yeah and I think Nahdia has a huge chance of being town. You might notice my list right now is changing a lot because I'm running calculations off of possibilities and probabilities--Nahdia has play and circumstances that look town but a really shitty voting history. She's been consistently on town, and in areas where it looks like she was avoiding being on scum and largely avoiding the spotlight even. That's not something easy to ignore.
Still, trying this:
SpyreX-GreyICE
LLD-Cheetory
SpyreX-Cheetory
GreyICE-Cheetory
LLD-MoI
SpyreX-Nahdia
GreyICE-Nahdia

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Post Post #5091 (isolation #325) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:11 pm

Post by mastina »

Like.

There should be value in what I am doing, here.
Because there are literally only six possible scum candidates (five if you are a name on the list): SpyreX, GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, MagnaofIllusion, Cheetory6, and Nahdia.
Both scum are in those six
.
So especially to those who are in the six (which means to them there are only five candidates).

I'm highlighting the pairs. Pair scumhunting was the technique I was going to use this game from the get-go if not for the serial killer (the technique I talked about wanting to try out waaaaaaaay back in ), but since we've basically all long-since sorted that it's hiplop who's the terrorist, I can do pair scumhunting again. And I wanted those pairs highlighted.

Which pairs do YOU think are viable?
Which pairs do you think are totally unviable?


You can automatically exclude pairs including your name if you're in the five, and I don't expect you to point out how ridiculous a pair with you in it would be. (Though it certainly wouldn't do any harm.)

But those six contain the scumteam.
And therefore, it must be a pair between them.
I'm doing my best to give guesses, working off of what knowledge I have.
And given that I have a limited lifespan--I REALLY expect answers here. Because those answers can help me refine my reads here further.
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Post Post #5092 (isolation #326) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:15 pm

Post by mastina »

Worth noting: if SpyreX didn't block hiplop, it's not necessarily a scumclaim, but the chances of him being scum go up drastically, since hiplop is basically known to be the serial killer and shutting the SK's nukes down can be nothing but pro-town.
Vice-versa isn't as clear: scum have two reasons to block hiplop. One, he nuked scum so nothing stopping him from doing it again. (He's a wildcard.) Two, for the town credit, because it's the action expected of him.

Let's say that the chances of SpyreX being scum started at 50%. If he didn't block hiplop, they go up to 60%. If he did, they go down to something like 45%. Adjust the starting percentage according to your read. (So, if 75% scum, then 85/70%; if 25% scum, then 35/20%, and so on.) It's not a huge tell or anything. It is, however, a potential indicator. Scum have more reason to let hiplop run free than town would.
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Post Post #5094 (isolation #327) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:24 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5093, Cheetory6 wrote:
In post 5088, mastina wrote:because he is a huge candidate for being scum with one of the three.
Sure!
Damn straight.
We know hiplop's not mafia.
We can safely assume UT's not mafia.
I'm not mafia, either.

So if there's any mafia who hold a nuke...by necessity, that would be you.

Either you're town and the scum have no nukes (and are both PRs), or you're scum and are the scum's remaining nuke. (With one scum in the PRs.)
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Post Post #5105 (isolation #328) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:35 pm

Post by mastina »

There's also your extremely lackluster play. You've been doing lots of lurking. You've not really been doing much in the way of scumhunting. Your main contribution to this game was nuking Accountant. On D1 you made a bunch of safe votes: Early Vaxkiller. Early UT. Parked in Not Voting. Vaxkiller when there was no chance of getting a wagon there. On D2 you went for Nukebringer when there was no chance of a wagon there. The only time you voted yesterday was early on McMenno. That's nothing condemning, but it sure's not a glowing review.

You've made halfhearted pushes the whole game, with no conviction behind your actions. Sure, you told us Nukebringer was scum. But you didn't try to really convince us. You just let the wagon on SAD happen, for instance. And have done nothing but coast, cruise, on the townreads that people have garnered on you since then.

Is that damning?
Hell no.

It's enough where of the six, though, you remain one of the main candidates. You're not THE main candidate to me--GreyICE, LLD, and SpyreX each individually hold more reason to be scum. Yet you don't sound town. You haven't been town. So you're in the suspect pool.

If you don't like it: lynch scum. Or, fuck, you have a nuke. Nuke scum. Town it up. Give content. Prove you're not scum. What you're giving now will never cut it in the endgame. I might not be around there to push. Others will be.
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Post Post #5115 (isolation #329) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:39 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5098, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:I love when Mastin goes "both scum are in those 6" and then someone ends up listening to her and we lose because she's wrong.
Okay.

Who's the Russian within Vaxkiller/UT/hiplop/Cephrir?

I'll wait.

...

Yeah. My statement's not wrong. hiplop's the serial killer, sure, we get it, that's old news. He's not a Russian though. The Russians are within the remaining six names. Or from your perspective, five. You say GreyICE is one of them. Who's the other? SpyreX? MoI? Nahdia? Or Cheetory?

For you to be town, that necessitates two of them to be mafia.
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Post Post #5126 (isolation #330) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:45 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5109, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:I cannot be SK. And I've been asking to be investigated since day 1. How exactly am I scum?
You're not surefire scum.
I'm not voting you, either.
You're a scum candidate, however, because ultimately, asking to be investigated--no matter when--is ultimately little more than bravado. Bravado is something you display alignment regardless. Can you honestly deny that? Can you honestly say that you, as scum, wouldn't make a bold move? Be honest. If you tell the truth about yourself, you know the answer.

The move is more pro-town yes. But it's not a move you wouldn't make as scum. You could rely on exactly what happened, for instance--hope that GiF got killed. For instance, if both the mafia AND the SK hit GiF, it wouldn't matter if Ceph had protected him; the kill would go through and the investigation request would be...nothing but a big gambit that you could kill GiF before he could investigate you.

So that's why you could be scum. You could be scum because that strategy isn't some implausible nigh-impossible stretch of logic. It might not quite be strong enough to qualify for probability. It is, however, just enough where I would definitely recognize it as a strong possibility.
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Post Post #5130 (isolation #331) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:52 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5114, Cheetory6 wrote:AND YOU HAVE THE NERVE TO GIVE ME SHIT ABOUT MY PLAY.
Damn straight I do.

The fact of the matter is: I'm town.
I'm dieing soon.
That means I don't have time to sugarcoat things. No time to be nice. No time to do this the long way. No time to push this over time, gradually get what I need.

So I'll call out any and every fault in your play, right here and right now. And get you to step your game up. Because I won't be around later to see you. I won't be around later to judge you, on things. All I have is the right here and right now. My request is not a hard one:

Give me YOUR READS before I die.
What pairings do you think are impossible? Which are probable? That's not some grand case. Simple thirty second answers. Literally the only reason to NOT share is TO give me a "fuck you".
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Post Post #5133 (isolation #332) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:54 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5118, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Vaxkiller you fucking oblivious moron.
Vaxkiller's expiration date is near-identical to mine.
He has a nuke heading his way literally right fucking now.

He also was wagoned by basically all the scum, so.
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Post Post #5138 (isolation #333) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:57 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5124, Nahdia wrote:{mastina, Untrod, LLD}
{Cheetory6, GreyICE}
{Vax, Cephrir}
{MoI, SpyreX}
So I take it this is calling MoI and SpyreX your scumteam. If that's not the scumteam, could you rate the following from most likely to least likely?
MoI-Cheetory
SpyreX-Cheetory
MoI-GreyICE
SpyreX-GreyICE
Cheetory-GreyICE

Furthermore, could you either give, or if you have given, point to, your reasoning behind this?
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Post Post #5144 (isolation #334) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:04 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5128, Cheetory6 wrote:Yeah fucking ignore me mastin.
You're just so fucking constantly full of shit.
Have you considered the fact that the reason I am ignoring you is because you are calling me full of shit rather than respecting a simple request?

The simple fact of the matter is, I'm about to die. And right now, I DON'T know who the scumteam is. I am doing everything in my power to find them before I do die. And part of that process is interacting with others and forcefully bringing more out of them. Aggressively pressuring them to give me THEIR view of the game. And through the view of those people, I can better find who is the scum.

Which is why I again emphasize that there is a group of five players I want to hear you talk about in detail. You know the five: LLD, GreyICE, SpyreX, Nahdia, and MagnaofIllusion.
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Post Post #5150 (isolation #335) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:10 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5132, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Cheetory's enough of a ? in my mind that I think him launching a nuke at GreyICE seems plausible.
What do people think?
My thoughts there boil down to this:
GreyICE said, "Hey, the scum have a nuke still!"
I told him that UT, hiplop, and I make up 3/4 of the nukes, with Cheetory as the fourth. He goes, "Huh. Guess I'll have to look at Cheetory again then".

...Thusfar: Silence.

You pointed out GreyICE knew he wasn't dead.
Cheetory debated this point. But then went back and said, "Huh. Guess I'll have to look at GreyICE again then".

...Thusfar: Silence. (Though in Cheetory's credit: this was a relatively recent occurrence, so.)

As a result, they are a REMARKABLY plausible scumteam. Even one of the probable ones, I'd say. I am not really opposed to the idea as a result, though I think regardless of the truthfulness or falsehood of the theory, it probably won't actually materialize, for better or for worse.
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Post Post #5153 (isolation #336) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:12 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5137, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Question: Who is scum outside Mastin's list of six? Answer: Vaxkiller, you fucking oblivious moron.
Humor me.
Assume the Vaxkiller nuke goes through. Assume Vaxkiller is scum.
You're calling GreyICE scum.

Who do you think, if not Vaxkiller, his scumbuddy would be, then?
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Post Post #5163 (isolation #337) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:19 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5143, Cheetory6 wrote:Do you know how out of my way I've played this game to be nice to you. And to ask people to not be shit at you because of how fucking outrageous you play this fucking game.
Yeah well that was your choice. I didn't ask for you to be nice. You get nothing for being nice to me. Not a pat on the back, not a congratulations, nothing. Nice is a luxury in games. If its presence hinders the game, it gets thrown out. We don't need nice.

What we need is town working together. I am town. I am also literally about to die. Like, in an hour and a half if I remember my times correctly, the nuke will be past the point of no return, and then when I continue to say I am town you'll know I'm telling the truth because SpyreX sure as fuck didn't sabotage UT so I do so absolutely without a scum agenda. (It's literally akin to claiming town post-lynch in twilight.)

So in that time before I am to die I am demanding certain things. Content, namely. After I'm gone, it doesn't matter what you do or say. But until that time, fuck yes it does.

So, simple request.

Who do you think is scum?
It's literally not that hard a question to answer.
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Post Post #5170 (isolation #338) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:24 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5154, Cheetory6 wrote:
Cheetory6 wrote:"Huh. Guess I'll have to look at GreyICE again then".
Woah. Can't believe I said that ever. I don't even remember doing that.
My mistake. It was Nahdia. Point half-retracted. (Obviously the GreyICE half remains.)
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Post Post #5171 (isolation #339) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:31 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5161, Cheetory6 wrote:I really don't have to do anything anyone tells me to.
You don't have to do anything, sure.
You could literally just stop posting, and pop in once every three days with, oh, I dunno. A random gif. Halt your other posting. You could totally do that!

...But there would be consequences.
Simply put: I am not the only one who is examining you right now. Nor will I be the only one. And that goes without saying. You deliberately make things difficult, you deliberately try to resist, guess what? You pay the price. There's a difference between not letting yourself fall into crowd mentality and choosing to not be helpful. The former's fine, the latter gets you killed. Regardless of your alignment, you shouldn't want that.
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Post Post #5193 (isolation #340) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:54 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5174, Cheetory6 wrote:It's literally beyond my comprehension how you can chide people for the SAD lynch when your reads have literally all been wrong otherwise.
Simple.

Me being wrong on some things does not preclude me from pointing out what others were wrong (or "wrong") about.
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Post Post #5210 (isolation #341) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:03 pm

Post by mastina »

Okay. That's what I needed to see. Technically, I wanted to wait for a longer time, to allow for more people to post, but placing my foot down right now.
LLD is either town or a worse fucking scumbag of a human being than I am because the way she's posting right now is either town or despicable-beyond-measure scum. I wanted to see that.
Cheetory is also town. I PMd the mod just a little bit ago to explain what I was doing, but basically, there's a certain type of rage that cannot come from scum. There is a certain mindset, a specific reaction, which only someone absolutely filled to the brim with real rage could experience, and as scum that feeling wouldn't be there. I wasn't sure about it, but I'm as sure of it as I'm getting. He's showing it. He's town.
Cephrir's attitude right now doesn't show it, but he showed the same thing earlier, which is one reason I think he's town right now.

Given that.

hiplop (totally the terrorist though)
Cephrir
Vaxkiller
Untrod Tripod
Cheetory
Lady Lambdadelta

Nahdia
MagnaofIllusion
GreyICE
SpyreX

...We get this. Nahdia's reaction in this whole situation is unfortunately hard to read. I couldn't sort it out one way or another. If I had to guess, I'd say town, but it's far from a surefire thing.

MoI and GreyICE were sadly absent, so no chance to get a read there.

But SpyreX's reaction is what I was expecting scum to do.
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Post Post #5243 (isolation #342) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:20 pm

Post by mastina »

hiplop is the terrorist, but not a Russian--this read needs no explanation.

Cephrir isn't scum. The chance of him being scum was there before, but it's gone now. Aside from the fact that SOMETHING needed to have stopped the scum kill N2, there's also the fact that his attitude is beyond what he's capable of pushing as scum. His refusal to bite the bullet didn't seem like it was survivalistic. It seemed motivated by pure, simple spite, combined with frustration and rage. He was angry in a way I've never seen him angry. And if he's scum, I can't see him being angry. Angry at me nuking scum? Why would he be? He knows me, he knows I get paranoid of him, so he'd know it was inevitable with me living long enough, I'd turn my back on him and call him scum. He had no reason to be so much in a rage as scum. But as town, it makes perfect sense.

Vaxkiller's flipping town as well. There's a nuke headed his way, so I really shouldn't need to explain this, but if SpyreX did sabotage hiplop, he'll live and he shouldn't be lynched afterwards. He took a role and has been using it in a town way. He's been trying to decode the messages, trying to interpret them, in a really organic way which does not feel faked. His cases when they exist may not be the most valid things in existence, but are indicative of actual, real effort on the part of a newbie that I think makes him likely town. So, don't lynch him.

Untrod Tripod is, admittedly, not someone I'm reading off of his game content. The scum PT literally has HIS tone to it. His contributions to this game involve nuking Reck (town), nuking me (town), and maybe some random votes here and there. One was on scum, but it was inconsistent. HOWEVER, in spite of that: he was an early pusher of Something_smart as scum. And he was Something_smart's counterwagon. Overall, it really looks like scum wanted him dead, which means he's almost assuredly not scum.

Cheetory I just explained. People do not melt down like this as scum. They just don't. And no. That's not fake. I can tell when someone is faking a meltdown. (Rare as that may be.) This aint it. This is pure, unadulterated, hatred and loathing. It's tangible. It is also very, VERY much town. That level of spite, that level of anger, cannot be mustered by scum, and even if it could be, they wouldn't because it's borderline suicidal of them to do so. It weakens their position in the game, something scum want to avoid. As a result, he is town.

LLD has progressed back into town, in part thanks to some convincing posts of hers, in part thanks to her content, her contribution, and in part thanks to the way she is engaging Cheetory. For instance, if LLD were scum, would be crossing the line. As town, I can understand why she would post something like that in the heat of the moment. She is upset, she is frustrated, she is experiencing strong emotions. But as scum, she might have some of those things, but nowhere near as intense, and deliberately posting something that would alienate Cheetory is something I don't want to think she would sink to doing as scum.

Leaving:
Nahdia, MagnaofIllusion, GreyICE, and SpyreX.
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Post Post #5248 (isolation #343) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:27 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5244, Untrod Tripod wrote:
In post 5243, mastina wrote:One was on scum, but it was inconsistent.
you mean nuke, the person who I was connecting as a SS buddy before SS had even fallen?
Okay I forgot you voted Nukebringer. There's that, I suppose, also in your credit, though I honestly don't think it means much on D2. You didn't vote Nukebringer D1. Your vote didn't stay on Something_smart, either. But it WAS one of the first, on at least one occasion if not two, and that I think looks good for you.

Plus the whole, "scum wanted you dead", thing. (All three flipped scum at some point.)
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Post Post #5249 (isolation #344) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:31 pm

Post by mastina »

Also, my family's about to watch Chuck.
I can't stall them off for long enough to be here, online, after the point of no return. So I won't be around immediately after the point of no return to say, I'm town.

I am town though. And I'll be back later tonight, WELL past the point of no return, to say as much.
Just, can't be there at the very minute it happens.

I also should probably elaborate on my Nahdia read in particular since I don't want them lynched and think we should be focusing the lynch efforts within MagnaofIllusion/GreyICE/SpyreX. I really think at this stage that two of those three are our Russians.
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Post Post #5261 (isolation #345) » Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:05 pm

Post by mastina »

SpyreX's continued use of pseudocontent with stuff like continue to be why he's my vote and top scumread, by the way.
Like.
If you want the definition of halfhearted vca.
I could point to that post.

It did absolutely nothing.

Also we're WAY past the deadline right now so I can say now: yes I am town.
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Post Post #5352 (isolation #346) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:44 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5287, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:I kinda hope we both flip town, that'd be grand.
With this back and forth, I'd say there's at least a 75% chance you share an alignment.

And a 75% chance that alignment is town.
(Scum theater is possible.)

So I would recommend against lynching either of you.
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Post Post #5353 (isolation #347) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:49 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5320, MagnaofIllusion wrote:If I wasn’t waiting for Nukes to land on Vax and mastin to confirm they aren’t Commie or Terrorist I’d probably be voting LLD this second. All that accomplished was making her argument look bad (which it was) and specifically make the Sub’s Nuke choice today if they want to eliminate the Airbase fucking simple.

Did Andy ever positively confirm that the Aircraft Carrier could not block the Commie or Terrorist Nightkills? I haven’t had time to read through all 10 or so pages overnight yet. Because if so I absolutely want to revisit the choice for Nukebringer to kill Ircher with those facts solidified in my mind.
Just wanted a reminder for why MoI is scum out.
How do you think teams of
Spyrex / me
, me / Vax or Vax / Spyrex make sense.
Well, actually......
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Post Post #5354 (isolation #348) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:54 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5324, Vaxkiller wrote:lmk if i should do anything else otherwise i won't
This is SpyreX speaking.
The player speaking there is a player who is doing nothing.
Cheetory replaced out--that was doing something.
LLD has been throwing a fit, at Cheetory, at GreyICE, at MoI--that was doing something.
GreyICE could be a scumbuddy in theory, but he wasn't the speaker because he did something--he claimed, which most definitely was something.
Obviously it cannot be hiplop. It also cannot be Vaxkiller.
Who does that leave?

Cephrir, Untrod Tripod, Nahdia, and SpyreX.

And of those, the player I best think fits this, tonality-wise, posting content-wise, is SpyreX. He's lurking and doing basically nothing.
Nahdia has been doing stuff--may or may not count as doing something, but I'd say their posting counts.

So unless you think it's Cephrir or UT talking there (admittedly UT's tone is pretty similar to SpyreX), then this was SpyreX posting.

I was considering moving my vote to MoI. But with this, not moving off of SpyreX. He is scum. This was him posting in there.
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Post Post #5355 (isolation #349) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:56 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5335, MagnaofIllusion wrote:And you are incorrect – hiplop does not have a Nuke in the air aimed at him. Just the opposite in fact – he’s got a Nuke in the air aimed at Vaxkiller.
I mean. For someone who is a mechanical player that prides himself on the details.

This is a pretty egregious oversight.
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Post Post #5357 (isolation #350) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:05 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5356, Untrod Tripod wrote:scum knows their messages might be intercepted, why would they ever talk straight?
Because they need to communicate with one another and some things can't be communicated through code. How do you tell your scumbuddy you are planning on doing nothing in code? "Peggy should sleep unless you have better ideas"?

Codes can convey a LOT of info. They cannot account for literally everything. Nobody is that thorough in making a code. Not any of the dead scum, and not any of the possible scum codewriters. (The living possible scum codewriters are MoI, LLD, probably-GreyICE, and probably-Nahdia.)

Furthermore, to some extent, we know that they are trolling less in their messages. The trollposter was probably Spiffeh, actually. Since Spiffeh's death, we haven't had the same amount of plagiarism in the leaks. So the person who was spamming in the attempt to leak nonsense is dead. Or, if not dead, no longer doing that anymore.

As a result: it is safe to assume that the scum chat is more serious right now.

And the only players I see writing that message are SpyreX or you.
And SpyreX makes bundleloads of more sense being scum, so.
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Post Post #5358 (isolation #351) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:08 pm

Post by mastina »

(I mean, Firebringer is a trollposter but I don't think he'd think of the whole plagiarism thing, whereas I think Spiffeh could, but the point remains. If the scum were still trolling in their PT, Vaxkiller would be receiving an indication of this. He has not. As a result...the scum are not trolling. Either because the troller is dead, or because the troller chose to stop trolling. Ergo, the message was sincere.)
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Post Post #5361 (isolation #352) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:22 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1247, Spiffeh wrote:
In post 1015, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Cheetory, Something Special, Reck
Accountant, Mastina, Zito, Greyice, Nahdia
Mcmenno, EP, Vax, UT, Fate, Cephrir, hiplop, Nukebringer, RC, lrcher
Spyrex, MoI
, LLD, GIF, Spiffeh
I think you mixed up my and Something Smart's places on this list
In post 1254, Spiffeh wrote:{Accountant, Cheetory6,
MoI
, Papa Zito, Cephrir, Reck,
SpyreX
}
{LLD, hiplop, mastina, SAD, McMenno, RedCoyote}
{Untrod Tripod, Fate, GreyICE, Nahdia, Something_Smart, ErrantParabola, Ircher}
{GIF, Vaxkiller, Nukebringer}
These posts were practically back-to-back. He commented on how Something_smart should be much lower, but the other two reads he has opposite of SAD (SpyreX, MoI), he doesn't go on about at all.

Furthermore, search Spiffeh's iso yourself. In it, these two posts are literally the ONLY two posts he mentions SpyreX. At all. One, quoting SAD and not mentioning SpyreX. Two, having SpyreX inexplicably at the top of his townreads without reason. I can understand the other reads off of Spiffeh's iso. But why the townread on SpyreX when Spiffeh literally never mentions him otherwise?

For that matter, while there's a little more on MoI (eight mentions total of MoI, plus two Magna quotes bringing it up to ten), most of those are non-interactions: , conversation. , just quoting MoI with an emoticon. , MoI as null. , wordless change to town. , question to MoI. , fluff. The remaining two are these two readslist, the one he comments on (without mentioning MoI), and the one he made himself (where MoI is a top-tier townread).
(While we're on the subject, contrast: Cheetory interactions. Spiffeh has them littered about his iso, because he was strongly buddying Cheetory. I do not think that's a scumbuddy.)
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Post Post #5363 (isolation #353) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:33 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3993, Nukebringer wrote:SpyreX's starting to worry me.
For the record, here at iso 185 is Nukebringer's first direct mention of SpyreX. There's an indirect mention of SpyreX earlier, via where Nukebringer questions MoI's placement on the list but seems fine with SpyreX's placement, but this is literally the first direct reference to SpyreX. The ones after that? Quoting SpyreX in . is a soft-call for SpyreX's death, via saying "don't kill Accountant or McMenno" and not addressing SpyreX. Which to be fair is made more explicit in . calls MoI and SpyreX scum, so there's that.

But as a reminder: hiplop launched the nuke at . Literally Nukebringer's first mention of SpyreX wasn't until after they were already set to die. The point of no return was circa . So, 4255/4296/4297/4353 ALL came after Nukebringer knew they were going to die. I believe the stance most players take are that post-point-of-no-return, all content is wifom and therefore worthless, no?

So the only ones usable are MAYBE 3993, and also 1258. 3993 itself may or may not be thrown out depending on your opinion of whether content prior to the point of no return but after the nuke launch can be considered valid or if it too is wifom to be discarded.

So in essence: Nukebringer also had basically zero mentions of SpyreX.

(For what it's worth, Something_smart also had none but I don't put much stock there.)
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Post Post #5364 (isolation #354) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:46 pm

Post by mastina »

And for what it's worth:
In post 1841, SpyreX wrote:Spiff is pretty transparently town ftr
Only Spiffeh mention.
In post 51, SpyreX wrote:
In post 46, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 42, Untrod Tripod wrote:
In post 37, SpyreX wrote:
In post 33, Untrod Tripod wrote:
In post 30, SpyreX wrote:Three smileys and a declaration of town
Dont know if i can trust you with a nuke there boy
yeahhhhhhhh that's gettin nuked maybe even before the hydra
Woah. Woah.
look at the smileys again
I'm sorry I'm just 3friendly5you.
Wolfpack howwlll
In post 1938, SpyreX wrote:So someone gonna be go team nuke and murder ss tomorrow and also make tomorrow happen today
In post 2720, SpyreX wrote:VOTE: ss
In post 2853, SpyreX wrote:That said ss lives for now
VOTE: mastina
This is until i can hammer
In post 3177, SpyreX wrote:Lol
VOTE: ss
^It's a bit hard to track given the multiple ways to shorten Something_smart's username, but I'm fairly certain these are the only real mentions of SS.

Even harder is Nukebringer. on policy, with no indication it's not policy, and .

That's literally all the mentions of the flipped scum I can find until the "analysis" of .
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Post Post #5365 (isolation #355) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:52 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5359, Untrod Tripod wrote:literally anyone can write a code. I don't understand why you think that's something only a select group of people can do
Literally anyone can write a code, sure, yes.

Only select people can write a code which isn't ridiculously easy to break.
Only select people can write a code which is versatile enough to last the scum the entire game.
Only select people are smart enough to do things like, say, random names for players in the playerlist rather than things like sam = mastina, xavier = Reck, which are easy to break/decode.
Only select people are going to have the skills to convey most information in their code.

Most players are going to have huge gaps, because most players aren't going to think their code through thoroughly enough to have thought of all possible needs. Even among the experienced codewriters, it's impossible to cover everything, yet alone for an amateur. So the amateurs would be more prone to having gaps in their code.

Gaps, requiring. Oh yeah. A post-and-pray approach. Some tonality manipulation can be used. But the scum are going to have some things leaked they didn't want leaked no matter what, and no matter how well they plan they cannot cover every weakness, they cannot cover every little thing.

You are stating that the eavesdropper is useless because "lol scum code". You are stating that nothing they are saying could possibly be potentially useful.

But that is just fundamentally wrong. There's a reason it's a town role.
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Post Post #5367 (isolation #356) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:56 pm

Post by mastina »

Also, for those who are townreading SpyreX: can I trouble you to name a reason
why
you are?

Serious question.

Why
are you townreading him?
Has something he's done struck you as being certainly town?
Or is it the same thing I had, more of an intangible gut, "I dunno, he just sorta feels town?" thing?

Because if you have an actual reason for him being town.
Now would be an awful good time to reveal it.

SpyreX has been coasting the whole game. There's zero scumhunting from him and zero effort. Just lolposting here and there. Contentless, fluff basically.
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Post Post #5369 (isolation #357) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:18 pm

Post by mastina »

Also, shitty meta argument time.
Compare SpyreX's 'content' this game to these: this is a recent game. Guess his alignment there. This is a recent game nearly identical to that one. Guess his alignment there.
The closest game of his to this one I can find is this one, which is still markably different.
Here is another town game of his.
Another towngame.
Another one which could sorta pass for this game is this game, but there SpyreX had something he doesn't have here, namely...effort and gamesolving from the getgo.

You have to go way back to here to find a scum game, and while that scumgame is more filled with quotes and does have some "I thinks", and "these are some things which are reads", the difference is notable lack of care and effort.

Admittedly shitty second-hand meta is shitty second-hand meta but I thought I'd bring it up all the same. His game here is not like prior town games. His prior town games have a certain level of consistency to them. (Among them being that he gets killed N1. :P) Yet here it's a completely different animal.
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Post Post #5422 (isolation #358) » Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:59 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5396, Andrius wrote:
"You may not
think
you are Russian scum, but you might be a sleeper agent! You could be Russian! You could be Russian!
I
could be Russian! But I'm not because no Russian can match my superior intellect and superior Russian-hunting skills. In fact, I'd say that I've identified each and every Russian operative and the Terrorist at least once already. I have already laid out every possible flight path for their bombers and movement order for their ground forces. Every ICBM facility is detailed in my briefings. Its not my fault you don't read my ten-thousand word posts to the Task Force forums or listen to my impassioned speeches about my home life. All of these things are relevant to finding the Russian operatives. Every piece of information must be analyzed. Every movement must be scrutinized. Every word spoken is weighed. Every life in America hangs in the balance? Can we do no less than our full due diligence? And if I act erratically at times, is it not in part of some greater plan that you cannot possibly comprehend?

I always have a plan. Always." - mastina

mastina looked up from their computer. "Everything is fine. The ICBM is on schedule. The other task force members are where they should be." mastina sipped from her cup of tea. "I have clearly laid out my thoughts and have no regrets. The fate of America lies in the capable hands of the task force." She paused. "Maybe not as capable as me, of course."

Suddenly her watch began beeping. "Ah yes, ten seconds to detonation."
"Nine."
"Eight."
"Seven."
"Six."
"Five."
"Four."
"Three."
"Two."
"One."
"Ze--"

Image
Beautiful.
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Post Post #6498 (isolation #359) » Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:31 pm

Post by mastina »

Since Andrius never conveyed my messages in spite of my request...
Spoiler: Date: Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:05 pm
mastina wrote:Obviously, this is information not to share with those who don't want to be spoiled, but for those who are spoiled and watching the game, you can convey to them the following:

Just for the record.
I both have, and have not, in fact, lost my marbles and gone batshit insane. There is both a madness to my method, and a method to my madness.

There is an exact 50/50 split chance between me getting lynched, and me not getting lynched, on D1. There won't be nukes on D1 from my understanding, unless my prediction of Reck changing his vote last-minute to NUKE THE BASTARDS turns true. And even if there were, they'd take 48 hours to hit, so I'll get a chance to post serious reads and whatnot before my death.

There are many people here who think I am scum for what I am doing. (I asked Andrius to only convey this message to those who are spoiled, because it makes it obvious that I'm not.) There are many people who for this play would policy lynch me.

But like most mastina plays, this is a calculated risk: I am gambling on the lynch not materializing. And I know that in this play...there will be mostly town who want to lynch me, with some scum. There will be some who defend me that are town, and some who defend me that are scum. Perhaps the more valuable one is that those who are on the fence are more likely to be scum, with maybe a few town.

Of course, if I know this. The default assumption would be, "well, that makes it a worthless play, right?". I mean, there's a reason Slayer's Gambit doesn't work. You have to know what you're trying to gain, and I just laid out how scum will be equally divided in their reactions, with mostly town involved. So surely, useless, right?

...As it turns out: no. What I'm gauging here is psychology, essentially. I'm not reading the players off of the expectation of "scum will do this, town will do that". I'm reading the players off the basis of, "That action looks like it comes from LLD as scum", and "that action looks like it comes from Cephrir as town". (Both true reads, btw.)

Of course, the tricky thing here is...I'm not an idiot. I know that the moment I change my tune, I am a deadwoman. I know that even if I play seriously for 3/4ths of a day phase, what I have already done will totally discredit any chance of my reads being taken seriously once I am gone at the hand of the town.

So, how, then, am I to convey to them the useful information?

The answer is...with subtlety. I'm looking for people who
understand
the situation. I'm looking for people who can grasp what I'm doing. And I'm looking to synchronize with those of them who I see as town. In essence, while I may not be able to directly convey important stuff, I'm hoping that I'll be able to relay it to key players who CAN convey the important stuff.

In other words. I'm looking to rattle feathers here, and reflect on subtle things. It's not the surface stance which matters. It's the tone, the intent, behind the stance which does. I cannot guarantee that I can read that...but the hope here is that I do decently enough to fuck the scum over.

I KNOW it is a big fucking huge risk.
If to nothing else, my reputation! Even if the players alive read this message (I'll be seriously pissed at Andrius if it isn't conveyed), would they actually believe me?

I mean, those that know me should. I'm MASTINA. Of
course
I have a plan. Of course it's a gambit. Of course it served a deliberate purpose. Of course I am still actually playing the game. Of course I was playing towards my wincon.

But to those who don't, they're just gonna see the shitty play and assume shitty player.

But I do know what I'm doing. I'm broadcasting my alignment, if people know what signs to really read. I'm looking for those who have read those signs...and for those who are faking knowing those signs. So like I said: method to madness, madness in method. Calculated risk. I'm HOPING for a payoff here, but we'll have to see.

If I fail, I do owe everyone that apology.
Spoiler: Date: Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:21 am
mastina wrote:Another thing which can be shared:

I should probably make a running list of my reads.
Reck I go back and forth on. I can't lock him down. I want to assume town though.
I believe his Cheetory read is correct, too.
Cephrir is town as well.

I'm not so sure about SpyreX (or on the other side, hiplop), but my gut is telling me to believe Reck about UT.

Accountant I also go back and forth on, but lean town more than not. Nahdia could be either at this point. I want town, but I've got a bad feeling they may be scum.
Ser Arthur Dayne at this point could openly claim scum and I wouldn't believe him so if he's scum he already won.
Spiffeh is probably town, but I'm not super confident about it.
GIF's got at least a 60-70% chance of being town here, too.
No read on GreyICE yet, would be pretty ironic if he were scum with LLD, but I doubt that.
McMenno's a wildcard I'll watch.
Zito, hard to tell. I don't like his entrance, but I'm not sure he's scum for it.
I have no opinion on Something_smart.
I'm deliberately avoiding reading MoI.
Nukebringer is probably town, though seeing more spam from Firebringer would help my read there some more.


So, town to scum we get something like:

Ser Arthur Dayne
Cephrir
Cheetory
Nukebringer
Spiffeh
GiF
Reck
Accountant
Something_smart
MoI
McMenno
Fate
GreyICE
hiplop
SpyreX
Nahdia
Ircher
RC
Zito
UT
LLD

EDIT: Slightly lean towards scum on RC, but not strongly. List above edited to reflect that.
EDIT2: No read on Fate. Slightly bad vibes on Ircher. This, as of 26.
Spoiler: Date: Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:44 am
mastina wrote:Another one to pass on:

I have to admit at this point, a large part of my strategy is playing up the parts of my personality I hate the most because it is the parts of my personality people perceive me to be. People perceive me to be arrogant, so I have ramped up the arrogance deliberately in response. People perceive me to be stupid, so I have played up my stupidity in response. People perceive me to be bad, so I have played up my suckiness in response. People perceive me to be insane, so I am obfuscating exactly that.

...Okay maybe I'm legit crazy so not exactly pretending there, but for the OTHER points, it holds true. :P

At this point, basically the aim is to keep portraying specific things.
This is to achieve multiple goals. Basically, the first goal there is that--while this is the absolute shittiest way to do this--my posting is meant to convey that I am town. (Seriously, I absolutely loathe, DESPISE, this tactic from players in games. It is the very thing I tell people to avoid doing, and try to discourage others from doing.)

Convincing people I am town might not seem like it's important. But it's part of the plan. I'm having trouble bringing the exact concept into words, but basically, by projecting my alignment to others, I am hoping to have projected BACK, as an echo, useful information from this. In essence, by making people see that I am town, I can manipulate circumstances such that I am in a position where I don't have to worry about being a distraction. I don't have to worry about people focusing attention on me. I can get the town to write me off.

The second part, related to the first, is in making people think I am useless, as an extension of writing me off. Now, you might wonder...why would I want people to write me off entirely? It's simple: because that way, I can deal damage to the scumteam.

If I am at any point killed, it tells the town that maybe just maybe, there was something that made me worthy of being killed. I have claimed vanilla. I am being, basically, an obnoxious fuck. If I die. Then that's pretty fucking significant! Furthermore. Even if I don't.

If I live to see D3, I get to launch a nuke. I have made it very well-known I am nuking LLD.

I am not planning on nuking LLD.
Whoever I DO nuke, though, will give answers: if someone shuts down my nuke, then that means someone wanted to keep LLD alive. This basically confirms LLD as scum, because by being written off by the town, the idea is that town won't waste their PRs on me. I WANT to be left open, to only the scum. If my nuke is intercepted, then so be it, but that tells us information. If my nuke lands, we get that flip and I get to have left an impact.

If nobody sabotaged my nuke, it also basically shows that the scum either don't have the power to sabotage me, or that they WANTED me to nuke LLD, effectively clearing her.

I realize it's a bit difficult for me to fully convey what this plan is.

But basically, the idea is deliberate, calculated, precise, selective guidance to specific things. I want people to be able to use my reads. I want my reads to be a threat to the scum. I want the scum, if they write me off, to pay dearly for it. I want the scum, if they pay attention to me, to be exposed for having paid attention to me, something which they shouldn't do unless I was an issue. I want the town to not waste time and effort on me. I want the town to focus their attention onto the scum.

So while my method is unorthodox, that's more or less what I'm focusing towards.

You might think.
"That's a stupid-ass plan, mastina!"

And to be fair, if it fails, yes it would indeed be rather stupid.

But by and large.

It's actually working
.

If I am massively wrong about my reads, then come D3, it will be obvious I was massively wrong about my reads, and we'll be much better able to refine and redo the list.
GreyICE basically nailed the point when he said that I would basically invert the list if given a reason to change the read. That point has the specific trigger, of D3. (Which I SHOULD live to see.)

If I am at all threatening with my reads, then the scum will in some way work to sabotage me.

So that part of the plan is basically surefire going to work. I don't even need to explain it, either. If the scumteam sabotage me, either by nightkill or by the strike team, it'll be SUCH a "what the fuck?!?" moment that they'll not need to be told this; they'll figure it out on their own. If the scumteam doesn't sabotage me, then I can explain it myself.

The part of the plan in question is the getting town to write me off. And that part, I think is working. Yes, I am the second-largest wagon. Or is it tied for first right now? Doesn't really matter. Yes I know that the people on there justifiably want me dead if for no other reason than policy. But you know what?

Even though I am town. I know the wagon won't go through. The scum aren't going to be stupid enough to force my lynch through. Yet there aren't enough town players interested in lynching me. So they'll lose interest. They'll get distracted. They'll pursue the shiny. They'll write me off. Maybe in their minds temporarily, but it'll be long enough. Just long enough, that I'll be given free reign.

So, I'm not worried right now.

I realize I could be making a fatal miscalculation.
No, literally, FATAL miscalculation. As in, lynched today, miscalculation. Meaning my work here would be wasted.

This IS a high-risk, high-reward plan.
But given my read of the situation, I think I'm fine. I'm reasonably confident that no matter how much I goad them, no matter how much I taunt them, my claims of them lacking the numbers to lynch me ring true. Too many people townread me or pretend too strongly TO townread me.

It also helps me direct things where I want them to go. For instance, the votes on me mostly came from Something_smart. In short, by drawing attention to MYSELF, I deliberately was shutting that wagon down. That'll make me look awfully fucking stupid if I'm wrong and Something_smart actually IS scum but I'm preeeeeeetty sure that Something_smart is actually town here, sooooooooooo...

...It's worth the risk.
I'll protect Vaxkiller and Something_smart, even if the cost of it is playing the most dangerous game of chicken with the noose ever. A sort-of, more subtle "Mastin Gambit". You know, "I'm so confident playername is alignment, that you can lynch me FIRST". That Mastin Gambit.



...Okay. Yeah. I'm crazy. I'm insane. This plan has so many ways it could go wrong and only a few it could go right with the ways it could go right potentially being underwhelming compared to my projections, compared to my expectations.

But I think this explanation makes it clear enough that,
yes
, is IS in fact a plan. I have a strategy. Maybe not a GOOD one. Maybe one that is universally to be called a bad one, ESPECIALLY if it goes awry. But it's a
plan
, nonetheless!
Spoiler: Date: Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:15 pm
mastina wrote:More thoughts:
Right now, I do not hold an LLD scumread.
But by GOD I cannot give that away. People think I am going to nuke her. And my plan absolutely HINGES on people assuming I am going to nuke LLD. I absolutely canNOT let out the fact that I'm not scumreading her anymore, even though I feel like she isn't scum and I absolutely suck at subtlety. It is vital that the scum assume I am going to nuke her. Absolutely
essential
.

So with that in mind, I'm trying to keep focus elsewhere, to avoid bringing attention to LLD. I'm trying to avoid mentioning her much at all, and when I do to have it be in a neutral context rather than a negative one.

But right now, Ircher, RC, Zito, and GiF are who I'm focusing on.
RC and GiF strike me as the type to have come up with the codes the scum are using.
Ircher and Zito strike me as the type to be posting the spam in the scum PT. Particularly Zito.
Those four are my main suspects for being scum, and I'm trying to keep the focus there without giving away my plan.

I can't nuke Ircher. He put stock in all the anti-nuke options. Nor can I nuke GiF, for obvious reasons. (I mean, it'd be hella ballsy for me to do, but one, I'd be intercepted, and two, even if I wasn't then if I am wrong and GiF ended up being the town cop...I'd have fucking NUKED the TOWN COP. Not something I want on my resume. As impressive as nuking a scum cop would be, I know myself well enough to know that my read is FAR more likely to be wrong than right.)

What I
can
do, however, is...nuke RC, or nuke Zito. Preferably Zito, though RC is viable and was actually my plan until my Zito scumread grew.
Spoiler: Date: Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:52 pm
mastina wrote:Been a while, but this whole post can be passed on:

I don't particularly like the tactic I am using right now. It is a fucking awful human being dirty scumbag tactic to use. But it's effective. REALLY effective. Pushing Cheetory's buttons and forcing him into the enraged state he is in is an awful thing to do. But what it does do is give me a better idea of him being town.

I think he is town right now. I really do.
It's been fluctuating a lot, but with this level of upset, this level of rage, this level of a breakdown, I don't think he's scum. I'm just trying to get that final push--that final absolute confirmation from him. If he is town, here, I think he can show it definitively. It might be in a way he never wanted to show anyone. But he'd show it all the same.

I'm also looking for people's reaction to his meltdown--that's equally as important a factor. He is probably town. He, therefore, probably does not have a scumbuddy telling him everything is going to be fine. But the scum, therefore, are in all likelihood...going to feel like utter shit for him feeling so shitty. They know I'm town and if Cheetory is town, they'll know he is town and know that our interaction as toxic as it has become was two players having a flare of passion. (Rather, one. I haven't held passion in my responses. This is cold. This is calculated. A very asshole thing to do, undoubtedly, but not something done with a lick of negative emotion.)

So what I'm looking for is how they respond, how they treat the situation.
I really don't think Cephrir is scum, for much the same reason I'm thinking Cheetory isn't. The game might not remember this at the moment given the flare of passion and emotions going on right now, but for me, it's...a little hard to forget. Cephrir held a similar "fuck you" attitude, one which was to the point of being beyond what I think he is capable of summoning as scum.

I also don't think Vaxkiller is scum. And I know hiplop isn't a Russian.
UT's a bit of an assumption on my part.

But if Cheetory isn't scum.
Then in those other five names, there are two who ARE scum.

Between LLD, SpyreX, GreyICE, Nahdia, and MagnaofIllusion, I'm hoping at least one of them shows their true colors in the heat of this moment.

And for the record: aside from potentially this, I don't hold regrets. I have played to the best of my ability to fulfill my wincon. I have scumhunted. I have made deductions. I have analyzed. I have been wrong as much as I have been right, but me being wrong is not reason for me to stop trying. If it were, I'd have stopped giving effort long ago. Yet it's not.

As town, my JOB is to try and find the scum. My JOB is to try and expose the scum. And if I haven't done it before, that's not reason to quit--that's reason to try harder to get it done right in the now. And because it's my job to scumhunt, because it's my job to keep trying, it doesn't matter how wrong I have been. My duty is to get the town closer to finding scum.
So that was my plan and thought process on it, as the game unfolded, more or less.
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mastina
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Post Post #6499 (isolation #360) » Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:43 pm

Post by mastina »

And for the record: not gonna apologize for being nuked BY scum, and having nuked scum. :P
Will apologize for: having nuked Zito, and recalling the nuke on scum.
Both were mistakes. Those I will say sorry for.

Literally everything else, right or wrong, I will not say sorry for. I was right on a lot of stuff. I was wrong on MOST stuff. That's par for the course in a mafia game. The main regret is the Zito nuke. (Me not nuking Zito ironically would have saved Red Coyote's life, because SpyreX sabotaged my nuke and therefore Zito would have shot someone else. It would also have saved Zito's life. Of course, me nuking Red Coyote would still have been me nuking town. But it would be me actually saving town by having done so. Unless Zito, like GreyICE, decided to nuke who I nuked anyway.)

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