Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[Flavor Leaf]

This sucks.


But!

The flips of CW and Gamma Emerald both being town PROVE that my reads have been good this game. I town read Lap strongly.

After Kyouko flip, I knew HPE was scum.

I have had a strong read game.

The ending of the days aside, I have been pushing in the right direction a lot of these games, but in consistently pushed as incorrect.

And yet, Pavowski has never once shut my reads down.

He has been there alongside me for most of it, and after all of it, my reads have shown to be pretty good this game. I gave up end of the day.

I don’t think I can now.

And you know what.

I think I’m back to this being 2 of 3 in Hu Tao/Purple/Dragon.

[Flavor Leaf]

My CW read was correct.

My Gamma read was correct. (Bar end of the day mishap, but there wasn’t a fade that was gonna happen, and I needed to know the flip.)

My Lap read was correct.

My HPE read was correct.

[Flavor Leaf]

This means I’m likely correct that there is scum in Hu Tao/Dragon.

[Flavor Leaf]

And I’m like 50/50 that the team is Hu Tao/Dragon or Hu Tao/Purple.

[Flavor Leaf]

And if I’m gonna lose the game, I’m gonna lose the game trusting my gut read on Pavowski, the one player this game who hasn’t tried to discredit any of my reads other than Purple.

[Flavor Leaf]

And personally, I think it’s telling considering my reads have ended up being correct, at least the basis. I spent like 2 and a half day phases strongly town reading both Gamma and CW, only doubting it near the end.

And I doubted it because I started to doubt my scum reads in Dragon/Hu Tao.

This will not happen again.

Dragon has whined about it all game, but fact of the matter is my reads have been right other than Kyouko.

I cased Black as scum, and wanted that flip hoping it was scum and that Hu Tao/Dragon were both town. I town read Gamma, and unfortunate they had to leave because I didn’t start doubting Gamma until they were gone.

[Flavor Leaf]

I will never vote Pav against on Day 5.

If you are able to get 4 votes on Pav, this proves that scum are on the wagon based on me being conf town.

Hu Tao/Dragon/Geraint all are willing to vote Pav.

Pav is voting Purple, this would probably mean Purple is willing to vote Pav.

I believe this means that scum are always on that wagon, and yeah, it could be a bus, but i don’t see it.

I messed up voting my gut soul read on Roden recently, and ended in a gamestate that was lost.

I won’t do it here.

Lose this one on your own.

VOTE: Hu Tao

[Flavor Leaf]

4.10

Pavowski (3) - Hu Tao, DragonEater70, geraintm
Hu Tao (3) -

Gamma Emerald, Random Nurse, Flavor Leaf

Not Voting (2) - Pavowski, Purplemango

This is not on a town Hu Tao.

[Flavor Leaf]

4.13

Black

(3) - Hu Tao,

Flavor Leaf

, DragonEater70
Hu Tao (2) -

Random Nurse, Black

Purplemango (2) - Pavowski, geraintm

Not Voting (1) - Purplemango

We go from 4.10 to this, where Black becomes the main wagon with me and Dragon/Hu Tao, leaving all town on Hu Tao yet again.

Scum don’t want Hu Tao dead?

Scum don’t want to break up Hu Tao/Dragon?

YEAH RIGHT.

And Pavowski tries to push Purple here over a juicy Hu Tao wagon? NO.

Hu Tao is a far superior fade in a scum Pav world.


Dragon, you are WRONG. Or scum.

One of the two.

[Flavor Leaf]

Or I’m super pocketed, and I’ll live with that.

We couldn’t come together, we couldnt meet each other halfway if you’re town.

I tried, but i just don’t think the majority of your town reasonings on each other hold much weight, and neither of you give a fuck about that.

[Flavor Leaf]

dragon, hu tao = powerwolf

this is my swan song
scum is probably dragon+hu tao+hpe
I called it
tbh I don't even care anymore

After this, Dragon and Co push that CW needs to be vigged.

CW was right this game. And imo, that’s so fitting. It’s why they got pushed down second half of Day 2 so hard even after I left it.

RN was pushing Hu Tao, and RN kill is a direct vote away from Pavowski.

This makes absolutely zero sense in a ScumPav world to do.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, it’s Dragon and Hu Tao.

imo, Dragon has near zero read evolution this entire game and has done nothing but conditional response me all game. When I’m with him and Hu Tao, they cheer me, when I’m against he discredit/punishes me.

Claim wise, the first one was to help the JK gambit, the 2nd one didn’t matter because it didn’t extend game and it kept the game from getting flips. I would argue the 2nd no kill helped scum more than it hurt.

I also specifically stated on Day 2 I wouldn’t be shooting Dragon, and they actively still blocked me.

This only makes sense for them to protect scum, which they absolutely did and protected HPE.

This is a major reason that HPE quick fade 100% had busses on it.

Scum gave HPE up knowing it would be too hard to save.

I believe both of them bussed.

[Flavor Leaf]

Fuck this I'm just going to sheep Flavor

Clearly he's not going to work with me and he's conftown so whatever

I'll graciously accept getting vigged tonight if Flavor is wrong

VOTE: cw

Pedit: okay that makes me feel slightly better about this vote

this is manipulative posting considering CW is E-1, and I'm not voting there.

Coincidence that CW had recently called out HPE/Dragon/Hu Tao as scum team?

Absolutely not.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think Pavowski fade is scum beneficial because it keeps CW-HuTao/DE alive.

It also makes it likely that I vig CW specifically, so scum felt safer going outside of CW so I would vig there.

I also agree with this. Which is why i wanted cw as the vote instead.

Yeah, wanted the person who wanted scum dead.

[Flavor Leaf]

The fact Black flipped green and synced up with the push I did most this game is incredibly telling.

Geraint, Purple, it’s Dragon and Hu Tao. Please please please do not vote Pav or each other.

[Flavor Leaf]

At least give it time .

[Flavor Leaf]

Gamma can read me I am safe

Unfortunately, in every world where you are town Gamma is scum

Also

I'd like to be able to say that I read your meta thing, but I didn't because I am freaking exhausted (and my philosophy is there's no point in trying to get anything AI out of wallposts when I'm tired), so I'll read it tomorrow at some point.

Aged amazingly

[Flavor Leaf]

Lmao - HPE's trajectory on Pavowski is similar to what it is on me. It starts RVS on Pavowski but at some point decides Pavowski is town (which reinforces the push on Laplacian because Laplacian was pushing Pavowski's really early posts like on end of page 2/top of page 3). Once it declares Pavowski towny on D1 it keeps that opinion.

On D2, when DragonEater tells HPE to read Pavowski and Hu Tao, it does so, and at this point still says it thinks Pav is towny in 901. The next time it mentions Pavowski is in 955 where it says to dragon it can maybe see Pav is scum but still thinks he is town, and posts a reminder to itself to check on Kyouko and PM.

In 1028 the read changes from town!Pav to "warming up to the idea of scum!Pav" and take a look at 1149 - Pav has the same complaint about HPE in 1109 that I have now - HPE is vague, by it's own admission, about why it SRs Pav. And yet, when I asked HPE why it SRs Pav it said I would find the reasoning in it's ISO.

HPE I maybe feel a little better about flipping, I'm a little sus of her recent change of heart on me (felt a little too easy if you ask me) and there has certainly been some opportunistic play there outside of that as well

You probably think it was a "little too easy" because this one wasn't exhaustively listing the things it didn't about your recent posts.

Anyway, VOTE: cw

HPE is blatantly faking convenient scumreads on players that are under pressure. This is scum.

Spoiler: raw quotes from HPE's ISO about Pav, but you may as well ISO her yourself and ctrl+f "pav" like I did

RVS wit no RV what da hell

VOTE: Pavowski

*pokes thread with a stick*

What, do you people have jobs or something?

Somebody vote Kyouko for that smell thing, that was weird, wasn't it?

That way I can defend her and be all "nah that's totally normal, actually"

I'm finding myself not liking this post. Its giving me a weird gut ping that it feels fake but I dont know how to explain it fully.

You mentioned earlier that we were early on in the day, but here you are acting like there is a sense of urgency that feels like a subtle contradiction.

Why are you trying to get other people to vote Kyouko for something that you find weird? Why not lead the charge yourself if you want to get the game moving?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Pavowski

Thomith don't you think maybe you're jumping the gun a bit? Pavowski's post seems a little, teensy tiny bit, blatantly, shitposty.

i think shitposting is still just a mask, and can be alignment indicative either way. I dont think there's enough to discern a correct answer with Pavowski at all. I lean town, but wouldnt die on that hill.

Never said Pavowski was completely fine, but still seems like an overreaction to me from Thom.

going to read everything this one missed in a sec here but saw a bunch of votes moving around Pavowski so time to UNVOTE: Pavowski before something stupid happens

going to read everything this one missed in a sec here but saw a bunch of votes moving around Pavowski so time to UNVOTE: Pavowski before something stupid happens

regret

Like I think town would rather ask Thomith about their read instead of trying to stop him?

So you're also jumping the gun and making the implication that you think me and Pavowski are partnered because this one scratched it's head at Thomith's overreaction.

Pavowski
DragonEater
Laplacian
Joyboy

thoughts on my green tier, HPE?

Only one this one really agrees with is like Pavowski and DE because ofc this one is actively scumreading Lap and Joyboy is... This one is tuning their existence out for the time being.

Lemme check myself before taking someone this one is wary of at face value

Okay checks out thank you :salute:
VOTE: Laplacian

To elaborate this one disagrees on Abne doing nothing but illusory acts of help, but more importantly just doesn't really think there's that "comedic veneer" from Pavowski and that 46 and 51 are secretly totally serious. ESPECIALLY not a fan of the sudden mood change after a reread, compare and contrast how 226 and 228 talk about Pavowski. Still don't like those early posts but certainly willing to write things off. It reeks of "scum failed to get people to kill this guy so they're walking away and saying 'yeah but i think they're cool now'".

Just to be clear, this one says it

disagrees

with Laplacian's assessment of Pavowski's 46 and 51, right? Or is this one saying it thinks that Pavowski was being serious in 46/51 without a "comedic veneer"?

(Am I using this one's pronouns right, I'm not sure if I should use "you/your" or "this one/this one's")

Disagrees, yes.

(You/your is fine.)

Pav and Hu Tao

you got it boss, see y'all tomorrow

Pav's ISO has quite a bit of townie energy imo and there's a few standout posts this one particularly likes, such as 335 and 869. In general Pav feels very genuine in alot of his posts and points and this one is happy with putting him down as town. Though this one also finds it weird how you tried to shoot down 870 ngl.

On the other hand this one has fucking nothing for Hu Tao LMAOOOO. This one couldn't reallllly get anything of note out of reading her ISO and when it took a look at its last games with her, Smuggler's Port and love child, it realized that it just cannot read her well because these ISOs are like all fucking identical. And she was town in SP and scum in LC so like!!! Fuck!!! This one still wants to put her down as a scumlean for her lame pushes on me earlier but that's really about it. Going to look more thoroughly later for sure, though.

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

I'm not going to pretend to understand the logic of why this post means Kyo or DE or *both* could be scum, but the more I sit with it the more scum!Dragon makes sense to me

VOTE: Dragon

This is definitely a scum post

Like Pav isn't even pretending to have a reason to vote me. It's thinly veiled OMGUS on a slot that he sees is coming under fire, when he needs to divert attention off hinself after the towncore starts suspecting him.

Game solved GGEZ

This one can see it with the example you quoted but it's still like, pretty pleased with his earlier play? But it supposes this could be a caught scum flailing moment or however you wanna describe it. This one will think on it. Reminder to me also to go and take a look at PM and Kyouko because they've not been on it's radar all that much this game.

This one is warming up to the idea of scum!Pav but it definitely feels like we're overlooking the lurkers even as we say "well there could be scum there..........."

I wish I could see HPE alignment without having to flip them, lol. that's a big key slot here for me right now.

also you could just shoot me anyway

Let me explain my thought process on Pav, because I sorta intentionally didn't explain it earlier as I'd wanted to see reactions to my vote on him.

Day 1 he was being voted/shaded for some eary game weirdness which I was willing to ignore as I could see coming from town. Then he made more posts which came across as towny.

However today with Abnegation flipping green and me re-evaluating my scumread on HPE (I think HPE is nulltown right now FWIW), I realized I'd been most likely townreading scum. And while his posts *sound* towny, they are definitely NOT impossible to fake, which makes him the likeliest person to be the scum I'd been townreading. He *sounds* like he's trying to solve the game, but when I actually read his posts I cannot an actual thought process about people's alignments to which I could say "yeah, this person actually had this thought and is actually trying to figure things out".

VOTE: Pavowski
Think this post hit the nail on the head for me especially with how poor Pav's D2 posting has been.

HPE I maybe feel a little better about flipping, I'm a little sus of her recent change of heart on me (felt a little too easy if you ask me) and there has certainly been some opportunistic play there outside of that as well

You probably think it was a "little too easy" because this one wasn't exhaustively listing the things it didn't about your recent posts.

Anyway, VOTE: cw

can you give me a short list for everyone?

Flavor Leaf

cw357

(but needs to Get Real or Get Dead)

DragonEater70

Hu Tao
ssbm_Kyouko (this one needs to bother reading her iso so fucking bad)
Purplemango

geraintm

Joyboy

Pavowski

Purplemango feels the best out of the 3 lurkers but all of them really, really need to start contributing.

This is one of the biggest things.

HPE’s read progressions were exactly the same on Kyouko and HPE.

Also, I asked that one multiple times for reads, and couldn’t get anything. But Dragon asked for reads, as Kyouko pointed out, and that one treated them like the boss.

[Flavor Leaf]

The way HPE treated myself, Gamma, cw, and Kyouko is drastically different than the way that one treated Dragon/Hu Tao as well.

And all 4 of the ones they stabbed at ended up being town.

That one treated their scum team more neutral.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: cw357
Until I’m caught up, this vote will remain here.

VOTE: cw357
Until I’m caught up, this vote will remain here.

based

I would love that vote. But it's likely not happening sadly. Flavor doesn't want cw

Emphasizing Gamma voting the slot who nailed the scum team

[Flavor Leaf]

We're def in a world where Gamma / Kyouko is T/S, S/T, or S/S.

that narrows it down
what if they're v/v lolololol nice try + rip + LLLLLLL

Their reads were near perfection this game.

[Flavor Leaf]

My current solve is Kyouko, CW, and one of Hu Tao/Dragon.

Geraint could slide in there if they’re scum in place of one of them, but I’m pretty happy with the other slots.

Most of Kyouko’s posts today were a lot of IioA, and there were conclusions made directed towards HPE.

I just think HPE fits the bill of impressionable town (not in a bad way) and takes the time to consider the cases that get presented.

Feels like they’ve just been on too many of the wagons outwardly, and i don’t think scum do it like that that often.

I'm telling you with 100% certainty that this is a wrong solve

I'm also pretty sure Gamma is scum from her catch up

You right, it was 100% wrong, and so was the push on Gamma.



Gamma was a main push for Dragon in Day 4 at times too.

[Flavor Leaf]

This post Dragon is pushing they are very good at finding town as town—

CW and Gamma were both town that Dragon was pushing. They were pushing Purple as townlock until today too.

He needs Geraint’s vote to win.

Spoiler:

Okay there's too many pages for me to just skim everything quickly so I am going to say what I think with the caveat that I might change my mind after reading everything since last night properly:

This message is addressed to Flavor.

I am NOT, by any measure, a very good scum hunter. If somebody nominated me for Paragon of Mafia Hunters I'd laugh in their face.

BUT

I am VERY good at correctly finding town. In Love Child, I had a correct townblock of 6 people when there were 11 players alive - enough that if we just limmed everyone outside of it, it would have been auto-win. And it's important to note that Gamma wanted to add Hu Tao (scum) to it and I DID NOT agree because I had doubts on her. In Mini Normal 2317, I called the following people "locktown" / "hard town" at various stages of the game, and they were all town: Titus, Elements, Gamma, Naerys. (Admittedly I called Snivy locktown too but that was for like 2 minutes and I promptly changed my mind and went back to pushing him so it doesn't count). On the other hand the scum team hovered between nullscum and nulltown for the entire game.

Now my point being, Hu Tao is

TOWN

. Don't you fucking dare put her in a solve.

My other point being, I'm actually pretty sure Kyouko is town. Like really pretty sure. I'd like to not vote her today. I'd also like to not vote me today and I'd ALSO prefer to not vote cw today (but I am not really sure he's town). Yeah I know this goes against everything you believe, Flavor, but sometimes you gotta trust other people in the game of mafia. Unless you can provide me proof that you can read Kyouko extremely well or something, I am going to have to say that you need to "trust me bro" on this one. Do you know why I lost 2317? Not because I wasn't townreading town. Because I let people convince me that my (correct) townreads were not correct. And because I did not double down on these strong townreads and vote everyone who I wasn't TRing.

Now if you'll excuse me, let's vote scum (aka people I am not TRing).

VOTE: Gamma

[Flavor Leaf]

I think this is probs Gamma town.

This is what I posted directly after Dragon said he was good at finding town as town then pushed Gamma as scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

Gamma and I were also semi aligning at the time.

Gamma, myself, and CW were pushing Hu Tao all at the same time Day 4, and Dragon actively ignores that we were all town pushing Hu Tao and couldn’t get them.