Mafia 48: Himalayan Mafia - Game over!

[neongrey]

Yeah, no worries. Things are going awfully quickly; I'm sure I'm not catching half of what's going on right now. Since my distraction isn't liable to change tonight, I probably will hold off from voting at all until morning.

I mean, unless someone stands up and says 'Hey, I'm scum, vote for me' or tries to claim cop or something. In which case, well then.

Either way, here, reading, may or may not continue commenting, but not much other than that from me for the next... oh, ten, twelve hours.

[neongrey]

My inclination to clear Sparrow is not a matter of him being new, but a matter of timing. There was practically no time at all between his confirmation and the game start. So it seems likely the scum had some forethought about who to recruit, perhaps even

decided

on a recruit, even before Sparrow was known to be in the game. And I doubt very much they'd recruit an unnamed player. I don't believe scum took the time to consult about him if he were their choice. Hence, I think he's the least likely to be recruited.

Unless, of course, the scum picked the player he replaced-- there wasn't exactly time, unless I miscount, to be switching choices between when he came in to replace and when the game started. If changing choices was an option at all.

[LoudmouthLee]

My inclination to clear Sparrow is not a matter of him being new, but a matter of timing. There was practically no time at all between his confirmation and the game start. So it seems likely the scum had some forethought about who to recruit, perhaps even

decided

on a recruit, even before Sparrow was known to be in the game. And I doubt very much they'd recruit an unnamed player. I don't believe scum took the time to consult about him if he were their choice. Hence, I think he's the least likely to be recruited.

Couldn't the scum have recruited the player that was replaced? Your logic is flawed.

[HezLucky]

It's kinda WIFOM actually.

Kinda...

[LoudmouthLee]

It's kinda WIFOM actually.

Kinda...

Not saying he is.. but saying it's bad to assume he ISNT.

[neongrey]

I don't think we can really cross off anyone as a suspect. There's probably arguments to recruit any of us.

The existing scum aside. Which is another big thing, I think-- there may well -be- an optimum choice to recruit. But people don't always do the optimum. Maybe if we knew who the initial scum were, we'd have a much better chance of picking who they'd recruit just by brute-force WIFOMing, but without knowing the tendencies of the scum-players...

[creampuffeater]

Vote: DG

people that disagree with fritz day 1= great random/ begginging vote.

Huggle fritz

already a gg bg list? I think its early... but ok

[Twomz]

I agree w/ Fritz again. A vote count would be wonderful. Thx in advance

[RandomActs]

My inclination to clear Sparrow is not a matter of him being new, but a matter of timing. There was practically no time at all between his confirmation and the game start. So it seems likely the scum had some forethought about who to recruit, perhaps even

decided

on a recruit, even before Sparrow was known to be in the game. And I doubt very much they'd recruit an unnamed player. I don't believe scum took the time to consult about him if he were their choice. Hence, I think he's the least likely to be recruited.

Couldn't the scum have recruited the player that was replaced? Your logic is flawed.

Of course that could have happened. But then you'd have to assume they'd try to recruit an uncomfirmed player, which also would be problematic for scum, I would think. And rightfully so, because the player was indeed replaced. Besides I never claimed my logic was definitive. We are obviously (and always) dealing with probabilties, and especially on day 1. I only said he was, IMHO, the least likely recruit, not that he or anyone else was definitively cleared.

I really don't think this point is worthy of the attention it has drawn. It's just a minor point with limited helpfulness at best. You may take it or leave it, but please don't misrepresent it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

*under the radar*

[Mr. Flay]

I wish I'd kept the snapshot I had of the partial confirmation list, because I think scum would be more likely to recruit (and converse with?) an early/often poster than someone about to be replaced. So I can see some of the logic of the Sparrow's-not-scum crowd.

Unvote: DG

for right now because this wagon is going WAY too fast without even a vote count yet. More tomorrow.

[Mr. Flay]

Errr, Sparrow's not the

recruit

... nothing says he can't be one of the original Asian Mafia, after all.

[Thoth]

Which player was recruited is really difficult to guess. Even if the mafia decided to take the best player available opinions could vary between several. The only thing that is somewhat likely is that it's unlikely they recruited a new/inexperienced player as he has the chance to out multiple scum by bad play.

The DG wagon is going a bit fast. Not that surprising as DG's post seemed suspicious and little else happened.

I'll try a different approach though:

vote:Random Acts

Voting for players not in the game always seems rather suspicious to me.

[TheCesspit]

I think even trying to figure out who the mafia would recruit is a waste of time.

Perhaps - but it's a fabulous way to jump in and discuss the game, right as the game starts, instead of 46 rounds of random votes. Of course, there will be participants like Cesspit who fear sticking their toe in the water... mmmm.

Fear or caution. You can decide. I just thought it better to wave hello and say nothing when I had no real thoughts than stay lifeless.

Now I've had time and the inclination to mull things over, I can surmise the following:

DippingGoofBall looks to be the first target, and their earlier behaviour seems a little odd. However, I'm not sure by the 'I'm going to vote this way but remove it if they might get lynched' brigade. Why not just point some suspicion that way instead?

[Norinel]

RA's vote for CoolBot was ignored because the latter isn't playing.

Vote Count:

DrippingGoofball- 6 (Fritzler, Fuldu, Twomz, LoudMouthLee, JamesSparrow, creampuffeater)
HezLucky- 1 (DrippingGoofball)
LoudMouthLee- 1 (HezLucky)
RandomActs- 1 (Thoth)
TheCesspit- 1 (tidus_of_zanarkand)

Not voting (

3

11): broomhead, Dead Rikimaru, logicticus, Mastermind of Sin, Mini Neo, Mr. Flay, neongrey, RandomActs, TheCesspit, TSAGod, Yosarian2

11 to lynch.

[TheCesspit]

"DrippingGoofball: Fritzler, Fuldu, Twomz, LoudMouthLee, JamesSparrow, creampuffeater"

Can I suggest with this early bandwagon that at least one of the above is Mafia?

(Yes you can, but really, thats hardly earth shattering).

[LoudmouthLee]

"DrippingGoofball: Fritzler, Fuldu, Twomz, LoudMouthLee, JamesSparrow, creampuffeater"

Can I suggest with this early bandwagon that at least one of the above is Mafia?

(Yes you can, but really, thats hardly earth shattering).

Yes, you can, but that's hardly earth shattering. It seems that you and I will feel that way, but the majority of others find it "scummy talk". I don't.

Or... DG is scum and we're ALL just really smart townies.

[DrippingGoofball]

"DrippingGoofball: Fritzler, Fuldu, Twomz, LoudMouthLee, JamesSparrow, creampuffeater"

Can I suggest with this early bandwagon that at least one of the above is Mafia?

If I were to venture a guess, either all the Mafia is on it, brazenly creating a wagon out of the high-altitude thin air, or none of them are on it, and they're just laughing their heads off. Like mountain hyenas.

[TheCesspit]

"DrippingGoofball: Fritzler, Fuldu, Twomz, LoudMouthLee, JamesSparrow, creampuffeater"

Can I suggest with this early bandwagon that at least one of the above is Mafia?

(Yes you can, but really, thats hardly earth shattering).

Yes, you can, but that's hardly earth shattering. It seems that you and I will feel that way, but the majority of others find it "scummy talk". I don't.

Or... DG is scum and we're ALL just really smart townies.

Oh, I include DG in that list as well, of potential Mafia.

[RandomActs]

vote:Random Acts

Voting for players not in the game always seems rather suspicious to me.

Aha! Bravo Thoth! I have a mini game starting at the same time and posted the random vote here by mistake. I thought my goof might go by unobserved, but you busted me. Congratulations on your powers of observation, but truly, it's a simple mistake on my part.

[neongrey]

... or

is it

? dundunDUN.

[logicticus]

Once again, speculation about who the recruit does not generate valuable information in my opinion.

1- It totally depends on the makeup of the mafia themselves. 3 new players will pick someone different than 3 experienced players or a mixture in between.

2- The person who would never be recruited, could have been mafia in the first place, so eliminating the fact they couldnt be recruited is meaningless since they were the ones recruiting.

[Yosarian2]

Oh! Thanks Neon. In my quick scan and observation of the bandwagon, I must have missed it.

Yos makes a good point. The post by Random Acts:

unvote

I think Fritz is the most likely recruitee. I'm guessing JamesSparrow the least likely, simply because he joined the game so soon before the opening.

Deserves the same castration as DG's...

However, the evidence against DG is much greater. I will, instead,

FoS: Acts

and keep my vote on DG.

Ok. I was just wondering about the selective treatment, was all.

I didn't think DG's first post was scummy; the "who could have been recruited" thing is a perfactly valid line of day 1 speculation, and while him picking HezLucky seems a bit wierd, I suppose that's all a matter of opinion.

Since then, he has said some slightly suspicious things, but not enough to make me want to join the bandwagon at this time.

[Yosarian2]

Once again, speculation about who the recruit does not generate valuable information in my opinion.

1- It totally depends on the makeup of the mafia themselves. 3 new players will pick someone different than 3 experienced players or a mixture in between.

2- The person who would never be recruited, could have been mafia in the first place, so eliminating the fact they couldnt be recruited is meaningless since they were the ones recruiting.

On the other hand, if we come to the conclusion that person X might be a logical person to be recruited, then it's just as likely that X was in the origional mafia is it would be that anyone else was in the origional mafia, and if it's slightly more likely that X would be recruited if a townie, that would make it a lynch with at least a marginally better of success then a random lynch, which isn't bad for a day 1 lynch with no info.

Perhaps more importantly, who speculates that who might be a recruit, and who disagrees with that (or starts to disagree with the whole process of speculation), might prove useful to look back at later.

[Dead Rikimaru]

I didn't think DG's first post was scummy; the "who could have been recruited" thing is a perfactly valid line of day 1 speculation, and while him picking HezLucky seems a bit wierd, I suppose that's all a matter of opinion.

I'm quoting you for two reasons:

1- To agree that guessing "who would have been recruited" is indeed valid.
2- To point out that DrippingGoofball is actually a girl.