In post 10134, MagnaofIllusion wrote:The best bit of your last page was highlighting that at least one of RR / Shiro / Kraska is likely scum. But that isn’t enough to run through your list on faith. Sorry. Hunting for scum in thread is as important as the number crunching you seem to be leaning heavily on.
How fortunate for me that I can explain this at any time!
I'll start out by giving an apology. When I said I had reason for one of kraska/Shiro to be guaranteed scum upon a TWIE townflip, even without the SirCakez lynch, I thought that was true, but upon a review of my notes, I used the SirCakez lynch in factoring my read a little more than I thought, just...not in the way you'd think.
In post 8412, Varsoon wrote: McMenno
,
farside22
,
Titus, Not Chara, grapes, mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds
Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
Almost50
Not Voting (9):
Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
Skybird
,
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational,
kraskaeaque
,
Firebringer, randomidget
It starts here. This is a huge wagon, on a now-known mislynch. If TWIE is scum, this distribution seems plausible enough...but what if he isn't? If TWIE is town, then that is an all-town seven-strong wagon on SnarkySnowman. So the question at hand is...if TWIE is town...why did scum let a perfectly-valid mislynch go to waste, in favor of lynching DGB, a valued asset?
Well...
In post 7576, Varsoon wrote: Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
TheWayItEnds
,
grapes
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Skybird
,
Yume, Xkfyu
,
Not Chara, McMenno
,
Creature
,
farside22
,
Firebringer
Almost50
Shadow_Step
Not Voting (3):
Reasonably Rational
,
mastin2, randomidget
In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):
Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
,
Firebringer, grapes, McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara
mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds
Almost50
Not Voting (5):
Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget
[/quote] Both before, and after, the farside reset, there were three names in particular voting for DGB: Thefuzzylogic, Creature, and Shiro. Now, I find the idea of that being a scumteam, of the scum putting all their eggs in one basket, absurd. So that can't be our scumteam. What it DOES indicate, though, is that at least one if not two of them are scum.
So if the scumteam can't be Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro, at least one must be town, and therefore one of Shadow/kraska/RR must be scum, as you yourself acknowledge, MoI. I view Shadow and kraska as mutually exclusive off of play. kraska and RR are mutually exclusive off of mechanics. Which leaves us at: Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
...OR, one of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS both RR and Shadow. I feel Creature + RR is unlikely, as previously discussed. Similarly, I doubt Titus got stuck with two scum and that said two scum would use it as a chance to mutually vouch for each other, meaning Shiro + RR is also off the table for me. Meaning, if TWIE is town, we get:
Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
OR, Fuzzy+RR+Shadow.
Now, personally, I find Shadow_step to be unlikely as scum, because I maintain it to be unlikely for scum to have paired with scum on D1, and then to use "reasons" from their alliance PT to mutually justify a townread on the other. (See also: Shiro-RR above.) But aside from that, the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam is unlikely for one key reason: the two scum lynches we have had.
post 3223, Varsoon"]
Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes
,
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume
,
,
Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational
killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer
,
Almost50
farside22
,
Skybird
CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade
,
Thefuzzylogic99
Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus
(1):
SirCakez
Not Voting (5):
Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature
[/quote]
In post 8587, Varsoon wrote:DrippingGoofball
(LYNCH):
Thefuzzylogic99
,
SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion
,
Creature
,
Titus
,
,
Firebringer, grapes, McMenno
,
farside22
,
Not Chara
mastin2
,
TheWayItEnds
Almost50
Not Voting (5):
Shadow_Step
,
Xkfyu
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Reasonably Rational
,
randomidget
[/quote] Take a look at where this hypothetical scumteam is voting. In both lynches, a scumteam with this composition did not attempt a counterwagon, AND did not attempt to claim towncred from bussing. They just let the lynch happen, with no resistance whatsoever, and no encouragement whatsoever. That apathy is why I eliminated this as a possibility, thus, why TWIE flipping town clears RR, because there's no viable scumteam for them.
So, that gives six possible pairings:
Fuzzy/Creature/kraska
Fuzzy/Creature/Shadow
Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska
Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow
Creature/Shiro/kraska
Creature/Shiro/Shadow
I did use the SirCakez lynch here a little:
post 3223, Varsoon"]
Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes
,
,
Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume
,
,
Klingoncelt
,
Reasonably Rational
killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer
,
Almost50
farside22
,
Skybird
CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade
,
Thefuzzylogic99
Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus
(1):
SirCakez
Not Voting (5):
Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step
,
randomidget
,
TheWayItEnds
,
DrippingGoofball
,
Creature
[/quote] Again, I find it unlikely we had an all-town lynch, and with RR as town, that indicates one of Shiro and kraska should be scum. But
furthermore
, I find the two Creature-Shadow combinations to be slightly less likely than the others, because of the same reason as I find the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam unlikely: it requires the scumteam to have put up basically zero resistance and zero attempts at towncred. That, aside from my natural Shiro/kraska suspicion, plus my lack of suspicion on Shadow_step.
Given this, I narrowed the possibilities down to:
Fuzzy/Creature/kraska
Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska
Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow
Creature/Shiro/kraska
The bolded contain both Shiro and kraska, with the italicized containing only one of them. (It was looking at this which made me declare that we had a guaranteed scum between them, ignoring that I did make a couple of large assumptions prior to this point.)
Now, you might note that I listed Fuzzy above Creature. Well that was just pure simple gut on my part, in that I feel like given the choice between Fuzzy and Creature, Fuzzy somehow feels slightly more likely to be scum to me.
That's the TWIE townflip.
I'll do the TWIE scumflip in my next post.