Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[Flavor Leaf]

4.10

Pavowski (3) - Hu Tao, DragonEater70, geraintm
Hu Tao (3) -

Gamma Emerald, Random Nurse, Flavor Leaf

Not Voting (2) - Pavowski, Purplemango

Meeeeh

This is so rough for Hu Tao.

[Flavor Leaf]

Something deep inside is telling me it’s not Pav here.

I just don’t see it objectively.

I see it in a certain aspect with dayplay and choices, but overall, if Pav is pocketing me, it doesn’t make sense to shoot at me twice in a row.

It also doesn’t make sense to kill RN who is someone who would be voting on their side.

Leaving Geraint, Hu Tao, and Dragon alive is just absolutely terrible from a Pav scum play.

Pav +1

[Flavor Leaf]

Geraint, Hu Tao, Drag is not all town.

[Flavor Leaf]

Geraint i low key been saying you’re town

What you doing.

I think it’s Hu Tao Purple or Pav Hu Tao.

The fact that he is going against you while you townread him proves he's town. It's the complete opposite of Pav who has been catering to you the entire fucking game. But more importantly than proving he is town, it shows his conviction in his solve which is as strong as mine and as strong as HT's. I don't think this level of conviction is based on a pocket, I think we genuinely found each other as town.

I don’t see where he is going against me?

I see him pushing it as Hu Tao/Purple? I was pushing Hu Tao/Pav, he can’t push that.

He wanted Purple yesterday too. I think Purple was the other option yesterday at the end of the day.


And everything you are saying here, I can say the same about Pav.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE has also had the worst reads this game, and sheeped into both wagons. Actively helped push Lap too, when Lap was obv town.

I think we go hpe today, I agree

This was hu tao really helping getting HPE eliminated, and I think they could have not done this, they didn't need to generate pressure on them and gone elsewhere (like....I for example.am always a good out when an alternative wagon is needed and instead of that they push scum).

I don't want to vote Hu toa today

But you see how Hu Tao actively sheeped the read and then because of it, the day ended super fast compared to the other two days.

I think that’s specifically because Hu Tao chose to bus and it ended the game early.

[Flavor Leaf]

This sucks.


But!

The flips of CW and Gamma Emerald both being town PROVE that my reads have been good this game. I town read Lap strongly.

After Kyouko flip, I knew HPE was scum.

I have had a strong read game.

The ending of the days aside, I have been pushing in the right direction a lot of these games, but in consistently pushed as incorrect.

And yet, Pavowski has never once shut my reads down.

He has been there alongside me for most of it, and after all of it, my reads have shown to be pretty good this game. I gave up end of the day.

I don’t think I can now.

And you know what.

I think I’m back to this being 2 of 3 in Hu Tao/Purple/Dragon.

[Flavor Leaf]

My CW read was correct.

My Gamma read was correct. (Bar end of the day mishap, but there wasn’t a fade that was gonna happen, and I needed to know the flip.)

My Lap read was correct.

My HPE read was correct.

[Flavor Leaf]

This means I’m likely correct that there is scum in Hu Tao/Dragon.

[Flavor Leaf]

And I’m like 50/50 that the team is Hu Tao/Dragon or Hu Tao/Purple.

[Flavor Leaf]

And if I’m gonna lose the game, I’m gonna lose the game trusting my gut read on Pavowski, the one player this game who hasn’t tried to discredit any of my reads other than Purple.

[Flavor Leaf]

And personally, I think it’s telling considering my reads have ended up being correct, at least the basis. I spent like 2 and a half day phases strongly town reading both Gamma and CW, only doubting it near the end.

And I doubted it because I started to doubt my scum reads in Dragon/Hu Tao.

This will not happen again.

Dragon has whined about it all game, but fact of the matter is my reads have been right other than Kyouko.

I cased Black as scum, and wanted that flip hoping it was scum and that Hu Tao/Dragon were both town. I town read Gamma, and unfortunate they had to leave because I didn’t start doubting Gamma until they were gone.

[Flavor Leaf]

I will never vote Pav against on Day 5.

If you are able to get 4 votes on Pav, this proves that scum are on the wagon based on me being conf town.

Hu Tao/Dragon/Geraint all are willing to vote Pav.

Pav is voting Purple, this would probably mean Purple is willing to vote Pav.

I believe this means that scum are always on that wagon, and yeah, it could be a bus, but i don’t see it.

I messed up voting my gut soul read on Roden recently, and ended in a gamestate that was lost.

I won’t do it here.

Lose this one on your own.

VOTE: Hu Tao

[Flavor Leaf]

4.10

Pavowski (3) - Hu Tao, DragonEater70, geraintm
Hu Tao (3) -

Gamma Emerald, Random Nurse, Flavor Leaf

Not Voting (2) - Pavowski, Purplemango

This is not on a town Hu Tao.

[Flavor Leaf]

4.13

Black

(3) - Hu Tao,

Flavor Leaf

, DragonEater70
Hu Tao (2) -

Random Nurse, Black

Purplemango (2) - Pavowski, geraintm

Not Voting (1) - Purplemango

We go from 4.10 to this, where Black becomes the main wagon with me and Dragon/Hu Tao, leaving all town on Hu Tao yet again.

Scum don’t want Hu Tao dead?

Scum don’t want to break up Hu Tao/Dragon?

YEAH RIGHT.

And Pavowski tries to push Purple here over a juicy Hu Tao wagon? NO.

Hu Tao is a far superior fade in a scum Pav world.


Dragon, you are WRONG. Or scum.

One of the two.

[Flavor Leaf]

Or I’m super pocketed, and I’ll live with that.

We couldn’t come together, we couldnt meet each other halfway if you’re town.

I tried, but i just don’t think the majority of your town reasonings on each other hold much weight, and neither of you give a fuck about that.

[Flavor Leaf]

dragon, hu tao = powerwolf

this is my swan song
scum is probably dragon+hu tao+hpe
I called it
tbh I don't even care anymore

After this, Dragon and Co push that CW needs to be vigged.

CW was right this game. And imo, that’s so fitting. It’s why they got pushed down second half of Day 2 so hard even after I left it.

RN was pushing Hu Tao, and RN kill is a direct vote away from Pavowski.

This makes absolutely zero sense in a ScumPav world to do.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, it’s Dragon and Hu Tao.

imo, Dragon has near zero read evolution this entire game and has done nothing but conditional response me all game. When I’m with him and Hu Tao, they cheer me, when I’m against he discredit/punishes me.

Claim wise, the first one was to help the JK gambit, the 2nd one didn’t matter because it didn’t extend game and it kept the game from getting flips. I would argue the 2nd no kill helped scum more than it hurt.

I also specifically stated on Day 2 I wouldn’t be shooting Dragon, and they actively still blocked me.

This only makes sense for them to protect scum, which they absolutely did and protected HPE.

This is a major reason that HPE quick fade 100% had busses on it.

Scum gave HPE up knowing it would be too hard to save.

I believe both of them bussed.

[Flavor Leaf]

Fuck this I'm just going to sheep Flavor

Clearly he's not going to work with me and he's conftown so whatever

I'll graciously accept getting vigged tonight if Flavor is wrong

VOTE: cw

Pedit: okay that makes me feel slightly better about this vote

this is manipulative posting considering CW is E-1, and I'm not voting there.

Coincidence that CW had recently called out HPE/Dragon/Hu Tao as scum team?

Absolutely not.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think Pavowski fade is scum beneficial because it keeps CW-HuTao/DE alive.

It also makes it likely that I vig CW specifically, so scum felt safer going outside of CW so I would vig there.

I also agree with this. Which is why i wanted cw as the vote instead.

Yeah, wanted the person who wanted scum dead.

[Flavor Leaf]

The fact Black flipped green and synced up with the push I did most this game is incredibly telling.

Geraint, Purple, it’s Dragon and Hu Tao. Please please please do not vote Pav or each other.

[Flavor Leaf]

At least give it time .

[Flavor Leaf]

Gamma can read me I am safe

Unfortunately, in every world where you are town Gamma is scum

Also

I'd like to be able to say that I read your meta thing, but I didn't because I am freaking exhausted (and my philosophy is there's no point in trying to get anything AI out of wallposts when I'm tired), so I'll read it tomorrow at some point.

Aged amazingly

[Flavor Leaf]

Lmao - HPE's trajectory on Pavowski is similar to what it is on me. It starts RVS on Pavowski but at some point decides Pavowski is town (which reinforces the push on Laplacian because Laplacian was pushing Pavowski's really early posts like on end of page 2/top of page 3). Once it declares Pavowski towny on D1 it keeps that opinion.

On D2, when DragonEater tells HPE to read Pavowski and Hu Tao, it does so, and at this point still says it thinks Pav is towny in 901. The next time it mentions Pavowski is in 955 where it says to dragon it can maybe see Pav is scum but still thinks he is town, and posts a reminder to itself to check on Kyouko and PM.

In 1028 the read changes from town!Pav to "warming up to the idea of scum!Pav" and take a look at 1149 - Pav has the same complaint about HPE in 1109 that I have now - HPE is vague, by it's own admission, about why it SRs Pav. And yet, when I asked HPE why it SRs Pav it said I would find the reasoning in it's ISO.

HPE I maybe feel a little better about flipping, I'm a little sus of her recent change of heart on me (felt a little too easy if you ask me) and there has certainly been some opportunistic play there outside of that as well

You probably think it was a "little too easy" because this one wasn't exhaustively listing the things it didn't about your recent posts.

Anyway, VOTE: cw

HPE is blatantly faking convenient scumreads on players that are under pressure. This is scum.

Spoiler: raw quotes from HPE's ISO about Pav, but you may as well ISO her yourself and ctrl+f "pav" like I did

RVS wit no RV what da hell

VOTE: Pavowski

*pokes thread with a stick*

What, do you people have jobs or something?

Somebody vote Kyouko for that smell thing, that was weird, wasn't it?

That way I can defend her and be all "nah that's totally normal, actually"

I'm finding myself not liking this post. Its giving me a weird gut ping that it feels fake but I dont know how to explain it fully.

You mentioned earlier that we were early on in the day, but here you are acting like there is a sense of urgency that feels like a subtle contradiction.

Why are you trying to get other people to vote Kyouko for something that you find weird? Why not lead the charge yourself if you want to get the game moving?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Pavowski

Thomith don't you think maybe you're jumping the gun a bit? Pavowski's post seems a little, teensy tiny bit, blatantly, shitposty.

i think shitposting is still just a mask, and can be alignment indicative either way. I dont think there's enough to discern a correct answer with Pavowski at all. I lean town, but wouldnt die on that hill.

Never said Pavowski was completely fine, but still seems like an overreaction to me from Thom.

going to read everything this one missed in a sec here but saw a bunch of votes moving around Pavowski so time to UNVOTE: Pavowski before something stupid happens

going to read everything this one missed in a sec here but saw a bunch of votes moving around Pavowski so time to UNVOTE: Pavowski before something stupid happens

regret

Like I think town would rather ask Thomith about their read instead of trying to stop him?

So you're also jumping the gun and making the implication that you think me and Pavowski are partnered because this one scratched it's head at Thomith's overreaction.

Pavowski
DragonEater
Laplacian
Joyboy

thoughts on my green tier, HPE?

Only one this one really agrees with is like Pavowski and DE because ofc this one is actively scumreading Lap and Joyboy is... This one is tuning their existence out for the time being.

Lemme check myself before taking someone this one is wary of at face value

Okay checks out thank you :salute:
VOTE: Laplacian

To elaborate this one disagrees on Abne doing nothing but illusory acts of help, but more importantly just doesn't really think there's that "comedic veneer" from Pavowski and that 46 and 51 are secretly totally serious. ESPECIALLY not a fan of the sudden mood change after a reread, compare and contrast how 226 and 228 talk about Pavowski. Still don't like those early posts but certainly willing to write things off. It reeks of "scum failed to get people to kill this guy so they're walking away and saying 'yeah but i think they're cool now'".

Just to be clear, this one says it

disagrees

with Laplacian's assessment of Pavowski's 46 and 51, right? Or is this one saying it thinks that Pavowski was being serious in 46/51 without a "comedic veneer"?

(Am I using this one's pronouns right, I'm not sure if I should use "you/your" or "this one/this one's")

Disagrees, yes.

(You/your is fine.)

Pav and Hu Tao

you got it boss, see y'all tomorrow

Pav's ISO has quite a bit of townie energy imo and there's a few standout posts this one particularly likes, such as 335 and 869. In general Pav feels very genuine in alot of his posts and points and this one is happy with putting him down as town. Though this one also finds it weird how you tried to shoot down 870 ngl.

On the other hand this one has fucking nothing for Hu Tao LMAOOOO. This one couldn't reallllly get anything of note out of reading her ISO and when it took a look at its last games with her, Smuggler's Port and love child, it realized that it just cannot read her well because these ISOs are like all fucking identical. And she was town in SP and scum in LC so like!!! Fuck!!! This one still wants to put her down as a scumlean for her lame pushes on me earlier but that's really about it. Going to look more thoroughly later for sure, though.

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

I'm not going to pretend to understand the logic of why this post means Kyo or DE or *both* could be scum, but the more I sit with it the more scum!Dragon makes sense to me

VOTE: Dragon

This is definitely a scum post

Like Pav isn't even pretending to have a reason to vote me. It's thinly veiled OMGUS on a slot that he sees is coming under fire, when he needs to divert attention off hinself after the towncore starts suspecting him.

Game solved GGEZ

This one can see it with the example you quoted but it's still like, pretty pleased with his earlier play? But it supposes this could be a caught scum flailing moment or however you wanna describe it. This one will think on it. Reminder to me also to go and take a look at PM and Kyouko because they've not been on it's radar all that much this game.

This one is warming up to the idea of scum!Pav but it definitely feels like we're overlooking the lurkers even as we say "well there could be scum there..........."

I wish I could see HPE alignment without having to flip them, lol. that's a big key slot here for me right now.

also you could just shoot me anyway

Let me explain my thought process on Pav, because I sorta intentionally didn't explain it earlier as I'd wanted to see reactions to my vote on him.

Day 1 he was being voted/shaded for some eary game weirdness which I was willing to ignore as I could see coming from town. Then he made more posts which came across as towny.

However today with Abnegation flipping green and me re-evaluating my scumread on HPE (I think HPE is nulltown right now FWIW), I realized I'd been most likely townreading scum. And while his posts *sound* towny, they are definitely NOT impossible to fake, which makes him the likeliest person to be the scum I'd been townreading. He *sounds* like he's trying to solve the game, but when I actually read his posts I cannot an actual thought process about people's alignments to which I could say "yeah, this person actually had this thought and is actually trying to figure things out".

VOTE: Pavowski
Think this post hit the nail on the head for me especially with how poor Pav's D2 posting has been.

HPE I maybe feel a little better about flipping, I'm a little sus of her recent change of heart on me (felt a little too easy if you ask me) and there has certainly been some opportunistic play there outside of that as well

You probably think it was a "little too easy" because this one wasn't exhaustively listing the things it didn't about your recent posts.

Anyway, VOTE: cw

can you give me a short list for everyone?

Flavor Leaf

cw357

(but needs to Get Real or Get Dead)

DragonEater70

Hu Tao
ssbm_Kyouko (this one needs to bother reading her iso so fucking bad)
Purplemango

geraintm

Joyboy

Pavowski

Purplemango feels the best out of the 3 lurkers but all of them really, really need to start contributing.

This is one of the biggest things.

HPE’s read progressions were exactly the same on Kyouko and HPE.

Also, I asked that one multiple times for reads, and couldn’t get anything. But Dragon asked for reads, as Kyouko pointed out, and that one treated them like the boss.

[Flavor Leaf]

The way HPE treated myself, Gamma, cw, and Kyouko is drastically different than the way that one treated Dragon/Hu Tao as well.

And all 4 of the ones they stabbed at ended up being town.

That one treated their scum team more neutral.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: cw357
Until I’m caught up, this vote will remain here.

VOTE: cw357
Until I’m caught up, this vote will remain here.

based

I would love that vote. But it's likely not happening sadly. Flavor doesn't want cw

Emphasizing Gamma voting the slot who nailed the scum team

[Flavor Leaf]

We're def in a world where Gamma / Kyouko is T/S, S/T, or S/S.

that narrows it down
what if they're v/v lolololol nice try + rip + LLLLLLL

Their reads were near perfection this game.

[Flavor Leaf]

My current solve is Kyouko, CW, and one of Hu Tao/Dragon.

Geraint could slide in there if they’re scum in place of one of them, but I’m pretty happy with the other slots.

Most of Kyouko’s posts today were a lot of IioA, and there were conclusions made directed towards HPE.

I just think HPE fits the bill of impressionable town (not in a bad way) and takes the time to consider the cases that get presented.

Feels like they’ve just been on too many of the wagons outwardly, and i don’t think scum do it like that that often.

I'm telling you with 100% certainty that this is a wrong solve

I'm also pretty sure Gamma is scum from her catch up

You right, it was 100% wrong, and so was the push on Gamma.



Gamma was a main push for Dragon in Day 4 at times too.

[Flavor Leaf]

This post Dragon is pushing they are very good at finding town as town—

CW and Gamma were both town that Dragon was pushing. They were pushing Purple as townlock until today too.

He needs Geraint’s vote to win.

Spoiler:

Okay there's too many pages for me to just skim everything quickly so I am going to say what I think with the caveat that I might change my mind after reading everything since last night properly:

This message is addressed to Flavor.

I am NOT, by any measure, a very good scum hunter. If somebody nominated me for Paragon of Mafia Hunters I'd laugh in their face.

BUT

I am VERY good at correctly finding town. In Love Child, I had a correct townblock of 6 people when there were 11 players alive - enough that if we just limmed everyone outside of it, it would have been auto-win. And it's important to note that Gamma wanted to add Hu Tao (scum) to it and I DID NOT agree because I had doubts on her. In Mini Normal 2317, I called the following people "locktown" / "hard town" at various stages of the game, and they were all town: Titus, Elements, Gamma, Naerys. (Admittedly I called Snivy locktown too but that was for like 2 minutes and I promptly changed my mind and went back to pushing him so it doesn't count). On the other hand the scum team hovered between nullscum and nulltown for the entire game.

Now my point being, Hu Tao is

TOWN

. Don't you fucking dare put her in a solve.

My other point being, I'm actually pretty sure Kyouko is town. Like really pretty sure. I'd like to not vote her today. I'd also like to not vote me today and I'd ALSO prefer to not vote cw today (but I am not really sure he's town). Yeah I know this goes against everything you believe, Flavor, but sometimes you gotta trust other people in the game of mafia. Unless you can provide me proof that you can read Kyouko extremely well or something, I am going to have to say that you need to "trust me bro" on this one. Do you know why I lost 2317? Not because I wasn't townreading town. Because I let people convince me that my (correct) townreads were not correct. And because I did not double down on these strong townreads and vote everyone who I wasn't TRing.

Now if you'll excuse me, let's vote scum (aka people I am not TRing).

VOTE: Gamma

[Flavor Leaf]

I think this is probs Gamma town.

This is what I posted directly after Dragon said he was good at finding town as town then pushed Gamma as scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

Gamma and I were also semi aligning at the time.

Gamma, myself, and CW were pushing Hu Tao all at the same time Day 4, and Dragon actively ignores that we were all town pushing Hu Tao and couldn’t get them.

[Flavor Leaf]

This one thinks Dragon is

maybe

town but holy shit is this Gamma scumread contrived.

lol maybe town yet he’s the only one that one answered questions for really

[Flavor Leaf]

Gamma has no reason to come in and disrupt the status quo the way they have unless they are specifically scum WITH Kyouko, so it always makes sense Kyouko first

IMO dragon getting on the gamma wagon with kyouku reeks of scum trying to get on a wagon with an imminent townflip. I obviously scumread dragon, and I find it hard to see scum dragon getting on a wagon with scum kyouku when kyouku is probably about to be elimed. VOTE: Dragon

it's not tunneling if ur right

Gamma/Kyouko being partnered would naturally lend towards Gamma coming in to

save

Kyouko rather than

kill

her, but right now Kyouko is sitting on E-1 with Gamma on the wagon and Kyouko is now trying to pivot onto Gamma, so methink it's just Kyouko here or else, if they're partnered, the plan has completely and irreversibly fucked up somehow.

I would prefer gamma here. But I don't think we have the votes to do so.

VOTE: gamma

Let's try

Gamma/Kyouko being partnered would naturally lend towards Gamma coming in to

save

Kyouko rather than

kill

her, but right now Kyouko is sitting on E-1 with Gamma on the wagon and Kyouko is now trying to pivot onto Gamma, so methink it's just Kyouko here or else, if they're partnered, the plan has completely and irreversibly fucked up somehow.

If they are both scum, it’s a distancing plan now.

Yeah you're probably right, but you're also right that in this case we still should just flip Kyouko first lmao

I just don’t think Gamma is scum.

Kyouko’s posts have a lot of subtle manipulation in them, like saying I’m preflip associating you, when I’ve just come to town read HPE. I didn’t scum read Kyouko then go “HPE must be town because of it!”

Dragon, HPE, and Hu Tao all trying to shade Gamma.

Gamma and I were aligning at this time.

Gamma vs Dragon was happening too

[Flavor Leaf]

I think Gamma makes absolutely no sense as scum here and to disrupt the status quo like they did is just silly.

[Flavor Leaf]

Also, Dragon claimed a confirmable role on Day 2.

And had no way of knowing there would be zero kills.

That was fully setup and I called the gambit out ahead of time.

It’s Dragon and Hu Tao.

[Flavor Leaf]

And it’s not even confirmed

You wanna know what’s confirmed?

My vig kill.

The two are not the same.

[Flavor Leaf]

If Gamma is town, it’s probably Hu Tao, but that’s the split I don’t think matters too much today. Gamma claim first is good

[Flavor Leaf]

Just waiting for that JK scum claim.

If Dragon is JK, and targeted me, they’re scum gambiting, no killing, by the way. I have a feeling it’s coming, i hope not, but yeah.

If Dragon is JK, and targeted me, they’re scum gambiting, no killing, by the way. I have a feeling it’s coming, i hope not, but yeah.

I don’t fully believe that happened, and i should have probs waited, but i was thinking about this since yesterday, and think there’s reason to get this out before a potential claim.

That’s a game winning gambit in a scumDragon scenario if that claim is believed.

CALLED THAT SHIT

[Flavor Leaf]

JK isn’t confirmable, though, in that regard, so I’m just being paranoid probably.

I genuinely do want to trust Dragon, but that would be such an untrustworthy move with no motives but faking self confirmation and protecting scum.

Like this would have just made Kyouko’s death less worth, which doesn’t line up with their attitude of Kyouko if they’re coming from a town perspective.

The Vig shot was coming from a slot of knowing Kyouko was town, exactly where Dragon wanted me to be yesterday.

The big reason of the Kyouko fade was to line up a solid vig kill.

I just don’t see JK as confirmable at all.

But this is all stuff I was thinking about on Day 2.

This is why Jailing me makes zero sense from a town Dragon perspective that night.

Dragon tried for ages to get me to see Kyouko as town. The flip, I did. And they jailed me, stopping me from shooting HPE, who I clearly stated was scum if Kyouko was town.

[Flavor Leaf]

hpe/gamma/geraint that is
all of them i sr so it tracks lol

Not a coincidence CW didn’t have nearly as much heat on him this day phase with these reads

[Flavor Leaf]

Nah, I’m done switching.

If you’re town, Hu Tao, Dragon pocketed the fuck out of you, and you look absolutely terrible on VCA with 3 confirmed towns on you yesterday.

[Flavor Leaf]

Pav just would have won had they killed Dragon probably, if scum.

There is no reason to keep a claimed JK alive at this point in the game free over Random Nurse for Pav.

Pav LOST a vote this day phase that would be on their side + risks getting jailed in the future.

No.

[Flavor Leaf]

Explain how they pocketed me?

you explain your zero read evolution on them. It’s your read.

[Flavor Leaf]

Frankly, I’m okay losing to a Scum Pav based on how little you two have given when I’ve actively begged and begged for reasons all game.

Y’all act like I can’t meet halfway, i tried running a marathon to meet with yall

[Flavor Leaf]

And the fact that both Dragon and Hu Tao main pushes in CW and Gamma on Day both flipped town when they were my Day 2 town reads says everything I need to know.

It was YOU 2 that needed to come and meet with me, not the other way around, and I was a fool trying to connect so hard with the two blank walling.

[Flavor Leaf]

If town lose this game voting Pav, so be it.

I will not have any part of it.

[Flavor Leaf]

Meaning 100% scum have to vote Pav this game for Pav to get faded.

[Flavor Leaf]

And if Pav gets bussed as scum….well, I have a Vig shot.


Also, another thing with Dragon who is so against my reads.


WHY DO THEY NOT JUST LET ME DIE ON NIGHT 2 OR NIGHT 3.

[Flavor Leaf]

Hu Tao is scum here dragon.

Hu Tao flips scum, jail Purple, probably. If a kill goes through, Pav or Geraint is scum 100%.

If Hu Tao is scum, I’m vigging Dragon.


If Dragon and I both die, and game continues, game goes to Purple as conf town against Geraint or Pav scum, just vote Pav in that scenario, Purple.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: Dragon

Hot damn spicy

[Flavor Leaf]

Everyone can make an argument that they have been left alive because scum is trying.to.get them miseliminated.

Except me.

I am the one they are counting on to vote wrong

It’s both you and me imo.

[Flavor Leaf]

Kinda wanna hammer test Pav/Purple

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, it’s a flawed concept if scum don’t have roleblocker actions anymore based on i could Vig you after, though.

I just don’t trust Dragon, and wanted to possibly prove there is scum in Hu Tao/Dragon.

[Flavor Leaf]

Cop and Vig vs Roleblocker Goon Goon does feel alright too.

In theory, if scum goes down day 1, they could lose on Day 2 with Guilty/Vig, so power is fine.

Cop, Vig, Jailkeeper vs Blocker Goon Goon still works, I think, but a lot stronger for scum. It could be 2 PR’s on scum in that case, a Blocker and then a 1-shot BP or something.

So setup wise, I can see Dragon either way.

Idk. I’m torn.

[Flavor Leaf]

If dragon is scum, we have to fade them today.

We are in leap of faith situation no matter what.

End of the day, we need 4 townies on one person to hit scum without bussing.

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor, do you reckon Pav/Hu Tao has any viability as a scum team? Because if not I'd like to just go Purple (assuming we decide Geraint is locktown).

I marinated on it, i don’t think it’s impossible

[Flavor Leaf]

I think that was one of my pairings Day 4 of I was wrong on Pav, and that’s what Black ended up on by the end of it

[Flavor Leaf]

I have no clue who scum is lol

[Flavor Leaf]

Like i literally town read all yall, and everything i got is just paranoia tin foils.

But some of my paranoia tin foils are correct

[Flavor Leaf]

There are legitimate reasons for everyone here to be town and scum, i don’t really like the no reasons push

[Flavor Leaf]

Okay, full disclosure.

I don’t have more vig shots. I was 2-shot.

It’s another reason I was skeptical of Dragon with them claiming 2-shot earlier and then retracting.

[Flavor Leaf]

So if we misfade, we lose.

[Flavor Leaf]

I do think it's possible that I needed a reset. And its not like scum can quick vote right now so I don't see the issue of voting you at the moment dragon

The issue is not with voting me, it's with the lack of reasoning. But you know what, I'll let you have a reset.

I think I might need a reset myself.

Hu Tao hasn’t given reasons for majority of her reads all game, why is it only now bothering you?

We had to deal with that all game.

[Flavor Leaf]

Dragon, you feel like Bingle in that game, and it’s really hard for me to shake that.

I also realized in that game that Bingle, RCE, and Naerys was a scum team that was always gonna play around me specifically.

Bingle and RCE are the two on site who have been able to identify town me the best over the years, and play scum me. Then Naerys, well, I called them out early for not giving me jabs and i took their “trying to not do that” to heart that game. Naerys wrecked me there.


I don’t think Pav is Naerys, but i feel you’re Bingle.

Sorry Geraint/Pav/Purple for talking about a game yall don’t know, but i think it helps for Hu Tao/Myself/Dragon to possibly get on same page if so, which i guess yall don’t want anyways but yeah

[Flavor Leaf]

And frankly, Hu Tao feels like Hu Tao that game.

Like every inkling in my body wants to take Hu Tao out. Even then turning on Dragon when they did. But like…that could be Hu Tao, and it’s Tuesday, so they’re probably town.

[Flavor Leaf]

And frankly, Hu Tao feels like Hu Tao that game.

Like every inkling in my body wants to take Hu Tao out. Even then turning on Dragon when they did. But like…that could be Hu Tao, and it’s Tuesday, so they’re probably town.

Sorry, was Hu Tao town in this game you're referencing?

I don't mind you using it to frame this situation, it just obviously isn't gonna help me much.

Yeah, Hu Tao was town, and I needed to get 3 out of 3 scum in that game, and I got 2 out of 3 because I was wrong on Hu Tao and pocketed by the outsider scum Naerys.

[Flavor Leaf]

Okay, full disclosure.

I don’t have more vig shots. I was 2-shot.

It’s another reason I was skeptical of Dragon with them claiming 2-shot earlier and then retracting.

So if we misfade, we lose.

If dragon is scum and we misfade, we lose.

If dragon is town and we misfade, he could potentially jail the killer or protect the kill target... Right?

Well, if Dragon is town, scum has a roleblocker.

Why didn’t they just block Dragon and kill?

I just really feel Dragon should have been killed by now if town. I don’t really think counting on me to push Dragon was a decent strategy?

Maybe it was, but I’ve consistently not ended up pushing Dragon through, like 3 days in a row.

[Flavor Leaf]

Like dragon can also fake “confirm” himself again as scum with another no kill and sweep the game if scum.

I don’t really think a stop kill is good for this game.

Like maybe, yeah, but still.

On that end, if Dragon is scum and no kills 3 nights in one game, that’s kind of a thing of legends

[Flavor Leaf]

Why didn’t they just block Dragon and kill?

Kill who? Me?
I have no idea why, I guess because they did hope I'd get misfaded eventually?
You? Probably because they thought you had more shots.

Yeah, I get it that way too.

[Flavor Leaf]

I can literally town case every player here.

Like…at this point, I’m just scum playing a killer scum game. (That is my default, can’t help it

But still.

Maybe I have to go in and actually go about town casing every player.

Because I see the scum cases for EVERYONE too.

I am also in the dreaded IC position.

I really thought I’d just die and get my shot on HPE.

But it was a fun game.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah if dragon is town, that is how i would see it

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: Pav

Maybe this day phase this will go through.

Only if scum bus it can go through

[Flavor Leaf]

If i compromise, it’s going Purple for me today.

This loses in a Pav/Purple world.

[Flavor Leaf]

Pav/Hu Tao*

[Flavor Leaf]

What

That's literally what geraint said.

It’s not what Geraint said it’s how they said it.

Idk if that makes sensd

[Flavor Leaf]

Maybe it is what they said

Geraint post was silly, i get the reaction

[Flavor Leaf]

Hu can you help me vote Pav out?

I don't care if scum bus, scum just kinda have to bus here.

They’re not going to?

[Flavor Leaf]

Geraint post just isn’t saying much, and Pav calling it out how I would call it out.

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m not gonna get voted, overall I think Dragon’s not truly going to get voted here, or at least from a Geraint pov i see why they woiuldnt.

Idk.

Seems like the same thing as me saying ‘seems like 1 of you lot are gonna get faded. And then i just lost all the options.

[Flavor Leaf]

It also makes zero sense for a ScumPav to act that way to Geraint here, scumPav needs Geraint to vote not towards them.

Hu Tao and Dragon perspective on the Pav post is truly what are the bad posts.

[Flavor Leaf]

It also makes zero sense for a ScumPav to act that way to Geraint here, scumPav needs Geraint to vote not towards them.

Hu Tao and Dragon perspective on the Pav post is truly what are the bad posts.

Disagree. How is saying "that's literally what gera said" a bad perspective on Pav post?

Then we can agree to disagree, and at the very least it shows there’s two sides to that coin.

[Flavor Leaf]

Why would scum bus against a JK here rather than getting through the day and going for a 50/50?

If one of scum go down today, then if dragon is town, he gets an inno on his targets if a kill goes through.

[Flavor Leaf]

I am locked in, going Hu Tao->Purple.

[Flavor Leaf]

I ‘think’ there’s a tinfoil chance of Dragon/Geraint as the team, but well played if that’s the case.

[Flavor Leaf]

I would take this quick fade if I were scum in Geraint/Purple

[Flavor Leaf]

I would take this quick fade if I were scum in Geraint/Purple

I am explicitly showing I am not doing that.
I feel town has a 2/3 chance of winning this as is which isn't bad odds.

I was actually defending you with that post, saying that if I were you in your position I would, so since you’re not, it’s a point in your favor.

That being said, it’s possible Purple/You haven’t been on at the same time, I still don’t think that’s happening here.

Meaning there is scum in Hu Tao/Dragon typically

[Flavor Leaf]

Scum quickhammer here from two votes out would be wild, they'd be giving Dragon a 50% chance to win the game for town tonight

it's that or hope the game doesnt swerve onto Purple, which I think there's a good chance it does.

this is in a Purple/Geraint scum team.

I think 50/50 is better odds for them, personally.

[Flavor Leaf]

exactly. it aint purple/geraint

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor, you know this isn't how I play as scum. So I don't know why you're scumreading me here

i just really dont think it's Pav.

and like, if im hard pocketed, so be it. Pav just said some things this game im trusting arent him coming from scum here.

'after all the things we've been through'

stuff like that. he's right, i feel him and i went through a lot this game, and he still isnt really playing up to me or trying to manipulate my vote. and i feel Dragon did that so much to me this game.

I just dont see it being in Pav, meaning it has to be in Hu tao/dragon.

i even did some reassessing last day phase and then again this day phase,and I end up the same spot each time.

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m probably not gonna like it if a No Kill happens with Dragon claiming to have jailed Pav.

I feel like fading Purple then if Purple flips scum then jail in Geraint/Hu Tao is better.

Let a kill go through and get an inno if Pav is scum.

I’m probably gonna lean DragonScum if they jail Pav and another no kill.

[Flavor Leaf]

Pav can’t kill me as scum. Like…they can’t win in the scenario they kill ms, not even for the “but why would i kill FL?” WIFOM.

Just wouldn’t work.

[Flavor Leaf]

it's good to wait for Purple since Purple is the most likely partner for Pav, Hu Tao, Geraint, and Dragon. will be interesting to see where puprle ends up.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, Purple feels like for sure scum here

[Flavor Leaf]

Which looks good for Pav imo

[Flavor Leaf]

@Geraint - if you are town, it is now confirmed that there is scum on Pav wagon, since I am not there. Take that for what you will

[Flavor Leaf]

Only 4 town remain, i am confirmed town.

This means either all 3 on Pav are town and Geraint is scum, or scum is aiming to hit Pav.

[Flavor Leaf]

Lol this is fun

I don't have time for deep analysis today, and I have plans for tomorrow, but the deadline is in 2 days 5 hours.

@geraint will you be online 5 hours to deadline to hammer / work out who we want to vote / whatever?
Or do you prefer to work it out yourself and I'll just come in tomorrow/the day after hammer whoever you choose?
Or should I make a special effort to be online tomorrow anyway despite my plans?

Pedit: what do you mean Pav?

I'm clearly not scum here

Pav is also clearly not scum here

[Flavor Leaf]

It is confirmed there is scum on Pav right now if Geraint is town.

And what have I been saying?

At least one scum in Purple/Hu/Dragon.

If Geraint is town, that is confirmed ^

[Flavor Leaf]

Oh, i thought Dragon was voting.

Well, my tinfoil of Dragon/Gertaint paranoia coming back.

[Flavor Leaf]

i will say, if pav is scum, i truly hope scum bus and break me out of a pocket that way.

but its the only way im breaking out of the pocket.

[Flavor Leaf]

i am proud of not going on Pav if he is town.

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor, can you walk me through what made you mega townread HT before we elimmed Black, and what made you lock your vote on her this day phase?

I think it was purely fear of misfading her again right after Commericals.

[Flavor Leaf]

In that game I was certain Hu Tao was scum for day phases, and I was wrong. (bingle/RCE 2 players who know me well made a lot of sense to be able to get that to happen even while I was feeling it happen)

Here, i have been waffling with her all game, not strictly pushing her. I wouldn’t even say she’s been anywhere close my main push of the game.

Black replaced in right after I was disheartened, and I feel commercials directly impacted that day phase for me.

These are not that similar of games when I relooked them over.

[Flavor Leaf]

I am though. Like what?

I know you want them to vote me over you, but if you're town you need to entertain the possibility that I am, too. Like nobody in the game is expressing the confidence in their reads of the remaining players as you are with me right now, which is telling

This makes a lot of sense to me, and while I think some Pav comments have looked fake throughout the game, it’s things like the ‘nobody in the game expressing the confidence’ lines that get me.

I’ve felt those type of lines from Pav all game

[Flavor Leaf]

What is Pav’s wincon here if scum in relation to what Hu Tao’s would be if scum?

[Flavor Leaf]

Purple, Geraint, Hu Tao final 3, who do you all vote in that scenario

[Flavor Leaf]

No lim is fine and dragon can jail somewhere.

[Flavor Leaf]

Alright, Geraint is probs scum

[Flavor Leaf]

If dragon is town, scum is confirmed to be on Pav, opening up Dragon to get a guilty or an inno.

[Flavor Leaf]

For the most part, scum is confirmed to be on Dragon already even if Dragon is scum.

A Dragon team wins right here if Dragon is scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

Confirmed to be on Pav^* even if Dragon is scum

[Flavor Leaf]

I feel it’s for sure one of Hu Tao/Pav and one of Geraint/Purple.

Geraint or Purple don’t have a strong win condition if Pav is scum here is something that makes me lean Hu Tao, but i see why they might need to roll the dice and bus still.

[Flavor Leaf]

Im siding with the dead player side against Hu.

If Hu is scum, they wanted dragon here for that, and that possibility is here.

I am not confident in Hu, though. I see Pav case, but knowing there is scum on Pav right now makes it difficult.

[Flavor Leaf]

It coud also be Hu Tao/geraint tbh

Hu Tao was sitting on Geraint the entire beginning of Day 4 too.

HPE had some weird dynamic with Geraint where it looked like distancing too hard.

So it probably is Geraint based on HPE. I think this endgame has exposed Geraint a lot right now.

[Flavor Leaf]

Idk if he’s going for a win or going for bus credit, though.

[Flavor Leaf]

If you jail Hu Tao, and there’s no kill, the easy answer is “Hu Tao was the night kill!” Which i don’t like, but it’s a solid defense that she wouldn’t have to explain further

[Flavor Leaf]

Idk if he’s going for a win or going for bus credit, though.

Scum me would have voted days ago

Why?

[Flavor Leaf]

Thing is Dragon, I really don’t think Pav kills me two nights in a row.

Geraint would, and I think Hu Tao has a much better time gamestate wise doing so than Pav.

Same with Random.

The Random Nurse kill is very weird if Pav is scum, especially over a Purple or Geraint who was leaning his way, not RN who would have voted with Pav probs.

[Flavor Leaf]

I do see merit in Hu Tao killing Thomith Night 1 if Hu Tao is scum against Thomith + seeing possible cop crumb.

[Flavor Leaf]

You think I would see you as town as scum?

[Flavor Leaf]

You think I would see you as town as scum?

I guess so. But you weren't on my tail so I wouldn't have shot you

I called out HPE as pushing a partner super hard on Day 3, so idk if that’s 100% true, albeit I wasn’t going after you like that.

That being said, you weren’t really here too much.

What are your thoughts on Hu Tao early Day 4 sitting voting you?

[Flavor Leaf]

What is Pav’s wincon if I weren’t alive protecting him?

To say “but why would I kill FL?!”

I think that’s a bad defense, and is much worse than keeping me alive.


Geraint actively knows I can read them, and I feel like I’ve been pretty good at reading a town Geraint past year.

I don’t remember another game I’ve even had with Pavowski.

[Flavor Leaf]

I FOUGHT FOR YOU PAV

I tried. I really did.

[Flavor Leaf]

I am locked in, going Hu Tao->Purple.

4.10

Pavowski (3) - Hu Tao, DragonEater70, geraintm
Hu Tao (3) -

Gamma Emerald, Random Nurse, Flavor Leaf

Not Voting (2) - Pavowski, Purplemango

Meeeeh

This is so rough for Hu Tao.

Do not fight the VCA or NKA.

[Flavor Leaf]

Gg scum, though.

They put a lot of work into that DragonPocket. It was deserved.

Was super close, though.

[Flavor Leaf]

GG! Well played everyone

I think I could have gotten Hu Tao faded if I had lived longer. Might have been hard to pull Dragon out of the pocket though

We just needed Dragon or Geraint to vote that way.

Compromise on Purple would have probably had to be the play. But that was hard too because there wasn’t too much content for that, and Dragon was defending Purple for a while there too. We spent like that whole Day 4 going after Hu Tao, and you gave a surge, but end of the day, Gamma, Pav, and I were pushing towards Hu Tao anyways.

I really do feel your town flip should have been confirming Hu Tao as having all town wagons on her should have been a dead giveaway, but there was only so many times I could push that.

[Flavor Leaf]

I mean, I called out real early of why wouldn’t Hu Tao play in a way knowing Dragon has meta on that to be fair.

People like to take meta on a plain level like that without remembering that the other player has the knowledge of the other player having that meta.

You based your meta on Hu Tao off of like one or two games where Hu Tao knew you had that meta.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think Dragon played well, though as a whole, but people underestimate what an active scum pocket play actually can do for you.

It does not matter if someone reads/knows you are scum when they are scum if they can’t get you faded.

And Hu Tao put all the eggs into that basket, and played a very strong shadow scum game while being under immense pressure.

A successful warlock on Dragon. I kept doubting that I was in the pocket of Pav, so I get where Dragon was coming from, and I was the focus of Bingle/RCE/Naerys in that last game.

You can come so close, but those split seconds of doubt has you act on impulse, and that was directly tied to Hu Tao’s play over Dragon’s.

Yes, Dragon could have not acted on impulse there, but in the moment, that is really hard, and that’s just being in the arena.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Dragon - biggest thing that was a big tell was you couldn’t explain anything with the Hu Tao town read other than meta.

And that’s been a big reason the past few years I have gone on record saying Meta is supplementary, especially when you only have a limited amount.

Dragon played well, Hu Tao played Dragon better.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah that second post sums it up well

Yeah, it’s not your fault in a bad way. There were many times when I was doubting my Pav read.

I doubted my read on Hu Tao from how Commercials ended, and that was unfortunate timing for Black’s replace in.

But we were all so tired by that time.

[Flavor Leaf]

I couldn’t break you out of the pocket either, so I could have tried to case Hu Tao more. Scum played extremely slow this game, and actively slowed the pace down.

Good play by them, even if it was a subconscious thing.