Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[Light-kun]

/confirm that the arctic owl has landed <--watchman reference.

[Light-kun]

Vote JereIC

Get fuzz(ier)

[Light-kun]

/un; !vote Zeenon

Because of the flatness of the internet, I have post 51 to be a tad defensive and does not appear to be continuing the joking manner of the game.

Also, your next three posts also seem to continue this trend of anxiousness which is, honestly, not very becoming of you. You last post paints a picture of someone who is irritated by the way the game is progressing and perhaps shows a bit of fear that you might be lynched off of joke votes? This shows a self preservation pattern that appears scummiest of all the play thus far.

[Light-kun]

"obvious sarcasm" you say? only scum benefit from 'randomly' voting ..

False.

because the can disquise their bandwagon votes quite easily.

No, anyone bringing a random vote to, say, L-2 has serious issues and should be considered suspect. All others on that wagon would immediately switch to the one placing the original butt of the jest at L-2. (All vote A, B votes A, so All vote B for voting A without reason. Follow? This is more likely at the L-1 though.)

i also asked a question, and then people starting saying it was supicious.
also, i never said i was in danger. i stated that it is very suspcious for all my votes to be

random

. scum like to say that L-3 isn't a big deal so that it stays that way for longer, and more votes can pile on.

Town aligned player would be idiots for putting some more votes on an l-3 without reason. (Actually post RVS, town is an idiot for voting anyone without reason.

i think you are definitely obvscum. one down, one or two more to go. you are right, RVS succeeded, in catching you that is .

You need more proof than that.

if i were to vote you, the reader, right now for no reason at all, would you ignore it ?

I would type "Vote acknowledged" but have better things to do than try and deflect an idiot with reasoning when they don't have the sense in their head to admit they're wrong. Also, my vote on you had the specific (and successful) purpose of ending the random voting stage. Honestly, I felt that your slight defense was the scummiest play up until that point, and as a result, you recieved my vote and attack. Your responses haven't been very convincing thus far, and I am one to think that newb town/newb scum is all null. (Novice like play almost always read as scum to me, so make a better attempt at learning this game or it will be hard to play this with. Also, I request you form better paragraphs and use capitalization. You have not earned my respect to mimic, in a shallow mockery, ee cummings.

As for the rest of your post (the last one I quoted), I see several cases of pleas to emotion and majority. Please refrain from using them as they will always be indicative of scum. this is your one warning, and continuing this play will merit you my vote once more. On the benefit of the doubt, I am

Unvoting

for now, but you still have the highest percent likelihood of being scum thus far.

And finally, you're thinking far too linearly. Sure it puts more pressure on ZEE, but it also puts more pressure on the rest of the town.

If

we lynch ZEE and

if

he flips scum then perhaps someone flying in on his behalf is a scum partner;

if

he flips town then the people finishing off the wagon need a longer look. Votes are the most useful tool the town has and we shouldn't be afraid to use them.

False.

Danny, if a person flips town, especially on day one, the people voting that person from the random voting stage, without validating their reasons for keeping their votes on, and the fourth or fifth vote* are most likely to contain mafia. The hammer is only suspect if it appears to exist solely for the purpose of ending day or if it come unprovoked or against the request made by the town or a player to not hammer yet.

* See Jeep's (I think it's his) article on finding mafia.

Excellent, thank you Nuwen.

If you do not contribute more than a single line in agreement with an argument, I will write your name in the Death Note. You do NOT post like this in order to appear to be actively playing a game when your not. I would prefer you type a [valid] post when you have the time to this crap, but if you can only do the latter, I request you replace yourself. This doesn't help town for you to just say, "This person is right." Oh, and as a note, I will refer to you as "Cow" since I don't really like using "na" as a name of reference, and I am much to lazy to recall alphanumerics.

Wouldnt a better play have been to just ignore it?

I agree. Cute logic battles are fun, but shouldn't take precedence over actual scum-hunting. If you're retorting simply to retort, you're at best creating spurious fluff that convolutes the game and detracts attention away from actual tells. Worse still, this distraction can be interpreted as an anti-town attempt to disrupt focus.

Conceded and apologies to the town for the distracting post in that case. However I'd like to remind the town that mine was the response to an equally distracting and useless insult from Drake. I'd hate for him not to get his credit for his part in this fiasco.

Blaming someone else for your distracting play is scummy. This is noted. Also noted is that you fail to actually contribute in this post, and your circular logic from the other pages doesn't help your case.

Finally:

Mizz Mafia: When you do not know what a word means, you look it up or read in context to make an educated guess. Also, there is a plethora of jargon on this site, which is why it contains its own wiki. Please use reference materials and do a little study. You may find that the more you play this game the easier this lingo will be to follow.

[Light-kun]

I have to agree with na85 that Light-kun’s post was picking a troll. You can argue that na85 is active lurking by just agreeing with other people, but Light-kun’s post was just picking a fight without reason.

Did you even read my post? The cow thing was approximately 1/8th of my post's point and was generally tongue in cheek. (Granted, I assumed cow could handle it better, but I don't really care as it is all very unimportant and beside the point.)

I would like it noted that while Cow acted within reason, everything else in the post was actually game related and ignored:

Big, fat, meaningless FoS Danny and ZEEnon.

Thus far, I have seen several different arguments and am ready so:

0=Town, 100=mafia

DraketheFake - 29%
Fishythefish - 38%
JereIC - 32%
Light-kun - 100% (This is joke, as I am "Obvious Kira")
pacman281292 - 37% (Mostly due to the WTF-O-Meter
ZEEnon - 41%
Mizz.Mafia - --
na85 - 30%
Amished - 38%
Debonair Danny DiPietro - 40%
freeko - 31%
Nuwen - 27%

I don't really have much analysis at this moment, and I won't be making a joke at another player's expense. Sorry since that pissed people off enough to ignore the rest of my post. However, ZEEnon and Danny still owe me responses for that post.

[Light-kun]

LK, you had no problem joining in with the parade of calling my tongue-in-cheek "circular logic" post unhelpful at best. Yet, later you unhelpfully bait na85 in a "tongue-in-cheek" name-calling move. Hypocrisy? Looks like it from here.

No, your tongue in cheekiness is fine. Your sarcastic jest with DtF is fine. However, your post seems to be one designed with the sole person of making yourself look better by pointing out to town that someone else is doing the same thing.

Dont worry though, I am also taking note of the na85 + light-kun battle that is going on as well.

The circular logic thing is a tired argument at this point,...

I like how you use circular logic to play it off. Do you know how to do anything that doesnt end up running everyone else around in circles?

First: There is now Cow/Light-kun argument. Did I miss this or did I make one comment on Cow and Cow was rubbed the wrong and I dropped it? Did cow decide to jab back? How is that even note worthy? Still, I didn't really respond for this.

Second: I agree.

Light-kun, in your percentages, Amished and I follow your two explained suspects by a mere couple of percents, at 6% clear of the approximate baseline. You haven't mentioned either of our names yet, and we happen to be two of the very few other players who have criticised you. Can you explain your suspicions?

Fish, I will only respond to you at the moment: You seem to have indicated, either subconsciously or unintentionally, something that I feel should be considered a bit of an assumption. It could, also, be a jest, but this mark is one of the few telling comments I've seen. I'm not going to comment on it just yet as I need to reread that post to decide and look at your play in isolation.

Cutting down on the quote pyramid...

1) Did my post supply you with more information for the future?
2) Does it not help the town to have more information?

You say the town doesn’t need to purposefully create links and maybe it’s true, but does it hurt the town to do so? I don’t think so; I think the more information provided the better.

I think you're most bothered by my transparency because it is a bit unconventional. However, as I’ve noted before I think it’s an asset to the town, not a detriment. Scum have to lie and deceive to win the game, the town need to uncover the truth, if I don’t worry about appearances and simply present the facts as I see them then the town will benefit from one less layer of bullshit to cut through.

Not sure why, but I agree with Freeko, but too extend, I always get a really defensive vibe from your posts....

This bothers me.

[Light-kun]

The cow thing was approximately 1/8th of my post's point and was generally tongue in cheek.

Take note, kids, this is what a weeaboo looks like when he backpedals. My vote's staying on you, douchebag.

I just realized this post exist reading from page 6-7 and I failed to acknowledge you attacking me. Is calling one who uses a dancing cow for an avatar really offensive to you? I suppose I've being seeing a lot of overreaction from you, but you never actually asked me to not call you cow. (And if you did, do tell me where, because I have surely missed it.)

Having to twist what he wrote previously is scummy. It indicates that DDD realizes that he made statements that were scummy by themselves and is trying to rewrite them to be less scummy. It also indicates he's more concerned about getting out of suspicion than in building an argument; he ends up undercutting what he has said already to appease his accusers. For this, and the reasons I noted in post 151,

Unvote; Vote: Debonair Danny DiPietro

QFT.

I should do an analysis of him soon, but not in the mood today.

[Light-kun]

Of course, I'm most concerned about getting out of suspicion.

1 I have

one

piece of confirmed information. I win with the town. If I focus on getting someone else lynched there's a 20-35% "random" chance we lynch correctly and a 65-80% random chance we lynch a fellow pro-town player and that's assuming

I somehow move the attention off me while spending more time examining other people.

2

If I fail in moving suspicion off me and I'm lynched then there's a 100% chance a pro-town player has been lynched.

3 It's simple math that I should dedicate the bulk of my time to not being lynched and yes, I have done some hunting in my defenses.

1. This is a scum type play no matter your alignment. You seem to then spend the rest of the paragraph giving town reasons to defend your scum type play.

2. Why are you not devoting you time to examining other players? Why are all your posts primarily defensive? I think that while you should acknowledge cases against you, most of your time, effort, and posting space should be dedicated to catching scum and not in constantly back tracking to clarify a previous post's meaning. You to be doing the latter a lot and failing to make persuasive arguments to prove people are scum.

3. This is a plea to emotion or majority or both. In any of these cases, it is still a logical fallacy and does nothing to sway me away from voting you.

[Light-kun]

EBWOP! Forgot this part, should go above the last post, but whatever.

Danny, if a person flips town, especially on day one, the people voting that person from the random voting stage, without validating their reasons for keeping their votes on, and the fourth or fifth vote* are most likely to contain mafia. The hammer is only suspect if it appears to exist solely for the purpose of ending day or if it come unprovoked or against the request made by the town or a player to not hammer yet.

* See Jeep's (I think it's his) article on finding mafia.

This is my standard caution against applying wiki axioms without thinking. Some are obvious common sense: reasonless voting, rolefishing, misquoting. But the meta making fourth, fifth, and hammer votes more suspect than earlier wagon votes is long outdated - most of the Wiki's theory pages were written half a decade ago. Jeep noticed that wagons built around valid anti-town play were constructed by pro-town players and then rushed to lynch by scum buddies parroting the earlier cases. Because this site is the product of multi-generation wiki metas, every wagon needs to be examined independently. Blindly placing more gravity on later votes is foolish.

This is my point. Saying only the first or last votes are worth looking at is just as outdated and for this particular game, this leads to mafia avoiding those particular shots thus making town look more like scum than mafia in terms of voting analysis.

Also, Nuwen, you unvoted this post, but (and this is assuming you unvoted DDD, if not, then ignore this) you only provided a reason for defensiveness not being scummy yet failed to refute JereIC's other points. Any reason for this? (Again, I am too lazy too look up who you were voting, and this only applies if you were voting DDD.)

[Light-kun]

Also, Nuwen, you unvoted this post, but (and this is assuming you unvoted DDD, if not, then ignore this) you only provided a reason for defensiveness not being scummy yet failed to refute JereIC's other points. Any reason for this? (Again, I am too lazy too look up who you were voting, and this only applies if you were voting DDD.)

She was voting for Mizz.mafia.

Ah, thank you. In that case, as stated, Nuwen, ignore the questions as they are unnecessary. Now for that solo post look at Debonair.

Unvote; Vote Freeko

I believe his last post is scumhunting, thus your post is a lie.

[Light-kun]

freeko's last post is unimpressive. He should at the very least acknowledge the arguments made against him in 225

Ok, I will show you what I see. Here is what I see in that post.

O: blah blah blah
M: blah blah blah
G: blah blah blah
U: blah blah blah
S: blah blah blah

The fish said this.

[Light-kun]

I call "I win with town" as a plea to majority, which is scummy in my book.

I was getting a slight "survivor" vibe off of him, but if he were, I'm pretty sure claiming it would result in his lynch anyway. And...

Hm... You still lie, you still say he did zero scum hunting. I see some.

Vote Freeko

[Light-kun]

Hm... You still lie, you still say he did zero scum hunting. I see some.

Well, I certainly dont see it. Maybe you could point it out to me because every time I isolate his posts, there is nothing that shows effort towards scumhunting.

Noted that you are flying in to defend someone else. This could be a scumbuddy trying to help push the suspicion away. What other reason do you have for attacking me out of the blue? This will be worth nothing now for reeference later in the game.

Here is another little nugget. Why are you voting for me again? You already had your vote on me before post 244. I could speculate 10 ways to sunday on why you are doing that. Saving a scumbuddy seems to be the only one that makes any sense to me.

No, I'm not getting a scum read from Monseigneur Debonair, but I do get a whiff of third party with the option two presented by ZEEnon earlier. However, you are my attack target from a small while ago, thus I think that I am not defending him as much as I am attacking you. So, this looks like slight misrepresentation, though this is far lessened since you, as a town aligning, could conceivably reach the same conclusion. I still see you as scummiest player in the game at the moment, so my vote stands.

[Light-kun]

Post 225?

HTML doesn't work. Just preview

everything

you write and you catch 90% of this stuff.

Freeko, your posts have lost all touch with reality, and I'm leaning towards voting you now. DDD has responded very coolly and rationally under pressure, and while it may be an act, it looks a lot better in comparison to you totally freaking the hell out crazy-style for no apparent reason.[/code][/mech]

Agreed. No change in position since my last post.

[Light-kun]

Freeko is obtuse and abrasive in another ongoing game that I'm currently in with him. I can't talk much about the game itself, but I'm beginning to think his posting style is a disposition.

I'm grabbing a cup of coffee to reread and confirm, but I wanted to get that sudden realization out there.

I disagree. His argument isn't just obtuse and abrasive but extends from mere stupidity and dullness into a completely self destructive attack. His argument doesn't make any sense and actually could probably sink in a vat of wet cement. He is thick headed, full of omgus, and just generally seems to be set on disrupting the town in a fashion of making the ability to scum hunt nearly impossible. Only mafia gain from preventing this, and I think that he is a goon of some sort attempting to pass off as misguided townie. (I just don't think any townie is THAT misguided.)

But, if you have a counter Nuwen, do tell. But, we cannot use his ongoing game as reference until it ends. I'm affraid it won't help much, Nuwen.

Are you stupid?

Yay! Argumentum Ad Hominem! This is what everyone loves!

[Light-kun]

No change else where:

@Amished:

My high percent on the fish is due to an extremely far reach that can conclude he is scummy off a statement made during the rvs, which might be reading too much into flavor. I am not too informed on the matter and due to his play (versus a reading in his word choice), he looks to be one of the more town aligned players. Making the assumption I live to see the point where it is irrelevant (he's dead, or we are in lylo, or I'm about to be lynched.) I'll be sure to explain, but it really isn't anything to concern yourself with and it certainly isn't damning. (If it were damning, not mentioning it would be stupid.)

[Light-kun]

I dunno, and I almost wish I could unvote now. *If I am not mistaken, I am voting Freeko, yes?*

Well, with Freeko's lynch, I'm going to be very surprised if he isn't mafia, but I have a sneaky suspicion he's going to flip town solely because of his play at the end almost doesn't strike me as scum somehow.... I think it is the meatbags comment. *Yay! I'm a bag of meat!*

*write Freeko's name in the death note. Sayonara , my little stupid*

[Light-kun]

My first guess is serial killer, third guess vig, and beyond that; I have no idea why we have a second death. Hm... under the assumption of a 3 person mafia team and 1 serial killer, we might be in a bit of trouble tomorrow. With a vig, we could instruct their actions. And if we're lucky, assuming sk, the sk might listen as to, at least, appear to be vigilante. This could be useful for the time being if nothing else.

Other than that, I can't think of a reason for the kill. Except for some bizzare (though allowed) role like...naive doctor or something.

[Light-kun]

Also: Very angry at Freeko's lack of a claim.

I think I have an idea on who's scum. I'll read them in isolation later/tomorrow and post thoughts then.

[Light-kun]

I disagree Howard. It tells us that there is a second killing role out their. So, we can keep our minds open to the possibility that a serial killer is roaming, which means watching for someone who seems particularly scummy but isn't connected to anyone else.

[Light-kun]

I disagree Howard. It tells us that there is a second killing role out their. So, we can keep our minds open to the possibility that a serial killer is roaming, which means watching for someone who seems particularly scummy but isn't connected to anyone else.

It's in a serial killer's best interest to play with the town during the day. A scum lynch and townie lynch both have the same value towards an SK's win condition, but actively scum-hunting has the added bonus of garnering town support and possible doc protection.

LA until Monday or Tuesday, one of my desktop's disk partitions shit out. My other partitions have experimental crap on them that I don't want to deal with, so I'll be sitting on my hands until my shiny new laptop arrives. I must also take time to mourn my lost Vig comics. :(

Interesting theory, but we should still be wary of possible serial killer.

[Light-kun]

Monster post that I'm not quoting in whole.

What I gleaned from your post:

My high fish percentage. (Also, my percentages are not baseless, but at some point, you did mention that they were consistent, so no harm done.)

As the dead krill makes obvious out, I figured only two groups would make the assumption all players (not mafia?) are penguins. I figured mafia would be something that eats penguins and townies would be penguins. As a result, mafia might assume all none mafia are penguins (assuming that they're not penguins) and all townies could assume they are penguins. Fish is the first person to start up the IN JEST penguin discussion, which indicated Fish thought, joking or not, that all the town is penguins. As my quoted posts indicate, even *I* think that it is a stretch, but it did get my gears working to watch Fish. Amished was high for some reason that I actually can't remember off the top of my head... *Shrugs* Oh well.

What insulted Nate: I honestly have no idea, but don't understand how it is a scum tell. O.o

Danny: Well, I read him as town after reading Freeko's assault. Freeko was probably attempting to act like a cop (I see that now), but his lack of claim etc just left a bad taste in all our mouths. (Our=people who voted for him) and he was lynched. The point is: I thought Freeko was scum, and reading yesterday still produces that.

You're initiative, though misguided, is appreciated Drake. Sadly, I don't really have any strong suspicions. Anyone have a lead other than me?

I am very, very sorry for the terrible distress that I have caused you. I am very, very sorry...

Light-kun - 1 (DraketheFake)
hohum - 1 (Light-kun)

Not Voting - 7 (Jazzmyn, na85*, HowardRoark, Fishythefish, Nuwen, JereIC, hohum)

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

*Prodding na85.

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 353)

[Light-kun]

True enough, hence I used that particular comment as a sign to watch you more closely. I could never conclude you were scum but meh. *Doesn't read flavor very often...*

Also:
Howard, I'm slightly bothered that you think knowing or speculating of a vig, sk, or second mafia group doesn't help us now. It offers us a warning as to what we might be fighting. Though, I think that a second mafia group is rather unlikely, we should be wary of a Serial killer or whatever. If its vig, hm.... what should we do assuming vig? Act as though we have two votes? The serial killer might listen though I highly doubt the mafia (if there are two) will.

Anyway, I still lack a lead...
so...
arbitrary vote:

Vote Zeenon

I might be able to pull a crappy case together later.

[Light-kun]

HowardRoark's responses to my questions aren't totally satisfactory, but I'm going to let it drop for now.

I can't make an in-depth monster post, but I've noticed a few weird things with Light-kun.

• Voted for both Zeenon and Freeko, both of whom were easy picks
  
• On March 2nd, he said DDD was engaging in scummy play, but on 3/4 said he didn't get a scum read from DDD
  
• His comment that he was "Obvious Kira" in his post giving a percentage on everyone was odd - sometimes scum or SK will make jokes about this, it's not common or a terrific scumtell, but it happens
  
• Responding to DtF's case by saying it was a misguided initiative looked like he was trying to placate DtF, and doesn't show the suspicion I normally associate with a townie falsely accused

And now I too schlep off to reread the thread more closely.

Interesting, but:

1. Danny did look scummy. Hell, everyone looks scummy to me. Though, I need to check my percents to see who's less so. Hell, seeing Amished flip, I probably need to reset them.

2. Kira=Light yagami. I think you should know I play the game, I'm not serious.

3. It was good initiative, but its misguided. Do explain to me why I, town-aligned, should worry about an attack against me? The attack is good initiative to get conversation started, but I have nothing to hide, so I don't fear it. Obviously, since I am town-aligned (and it may only be to me), the attempt IS misguided.

A reread...did one...may need to do another. Can't wait for Jazzy to post so I get a better idea on jazz and his view of the characters in our novel.

[Light-kun]

Unvote

Zeenon was apparently replaced.

[Light-kun]

1. Danny did look scummy. Hell, everyone looks scummy to me. Though, I need to check my percents to see who's less so. Hell, seeing Amished flip, I probably need to reset them.

Right, but you seemed to change your mind about him without much of an explanation. To be fair, I was just reading through your posts and didn't read them in context, so there might have been something that somebody else said that would have obviously changed your mind.

2. Kira=Light yagami. I think you should know I play the game, I'm not serious.

Yeah yeah, I've seen the anime, and I'm assuming your PM wasn't for the role "God of the New World... of Penguins." (Besides which, no one's died of a heart attack, yet.) What I am saying is that sometimes scum or an SK will joke about being anti-town, and it's more common for them to make those jokes than townies in my experience.

3. It was good initiative, but its misguided. Do explain to me why I, town-aligned, should worry about an attack against me? The attack is good initiative to get conversation started, but I have nothing to hide, so I don't fear it. Obviously, since I am town-aligned (and it may only be to me), the attempt IS misguided.

What's odd is how certain you seem to be that he's not scum trying to manufacture a case against you. How do you know he's pro-town, and therefore misguided, and not scum, and therefore malicious?

1. No response.

2. Good point, but in all my percents, I say I'm scummy. I understand your point though.

3. This is true, but his case wasn't built on a stretch so it reads as from a town aligned perspective which means it translates as: Percents decreased. There is still at least a 20-30% chances he is scum. Now... about my percents:


DraketheFake - 27%
Fishythefish - 36%
JereIC - 32%
Light-kun - 100% (This is joke, as I am "Obvious Kira")
Jazzmyn - -- <--Pac was high due to WTF? Giving benefit of doubt here.
hohum - 41% <-- Still don't like Zeenon...
HowardRoark - 27%
na85 - 30%
freeko - 31%
Nuwen - 27%

I'm waiting on hohum to post and for Jazz's opinion post at the moment.

[Light-kun]

So, reading through the thread again I can't say anything leaps out at me. Thoughts on a couple of players receiving attention at the moment:

Light-kun

I agree with Nuwen that his vote is bad. The implication behind it is much worse than a random vote- he appears to be saying that he has picked a player, and will then try to construct a case on them. It is also true that his change of stance on DDD does look a little odd- when moving to attacking DDD's attacker, his opinion on DDD seems to change dramatically.
The initial percentages have now been explained; however, in the new ones, I still have an elevated percentage. There is still no explanation for this, beyond an incredibly weak and old one that I explained. I really think if you are going to make lists like this, they should be explained more thoroughly. Otherwise you are just throwing out random accusations with no reason.

Zeenon

Yes, Zeenon overreacted hugely to joke votes/posts. However, I don't really see this as a scum tell- townies can overreact as well. The point that he tried to make safe posts from then on is a valid one, and does point to zeenon actively trying to avoid attention.

And there was this strange little post directed to Light-kun:

i agree with the rest of your points, so i didn't address them or else it would be seen as me agreeing with you too much and/or me just posting for the sake of posting.

That just struck me as odd, as it looks like ZEEnon either trying to explain to his scum partner why/how he had screwed up or, alternatively, trying to

appear

to be explaining to his scum partner why/how he had screwed up, i.e. buddying up to Light-kun.

This post by ZEEnon is an open admission he is trying to avoid looking scummy, but I don't see it as anything more than that myself.
Jazz's impression of ZEEnon is scum who couldn't take the heat; I agree with the latter, but not so sure of the scum bit.

Honestly, this post made your percentage go up.

Looking over Amished:
He never mentioned me except in regards of my percents. So, up until my percents were posted, I was wholly ignored. I elevated (read "lied") to see his reaction. He was concerned about them which kept his percent at the heightened level with zero threat. (eg, like Fish, I would watch him without really pursuing him until he screwed up.)



Next:

Which percent would you like explained? I am much too lazy to actually go through each one and explain it.

Next:

Vote hohum

After Fish's last post and Jazz giving her view on the freakout and Zeenon's play, I can almost see the faint outline of Fish+Zeenon, but far more likely: Zeenon=mafia.

Also, when I say arbitrary, I mean arbitrary. It isn't random in the sense that their exists a reason that is personal or the vote is seemingly random. I planned on demonstrating my case alter and I typed arbitrary to see how people would react. Didn't get much from it though. Oh well.

Let us see how the day goes, neh?

[Light-kun]

I'm the vigilante. I wanted reactions so I could shot people based off of them and is also why I've been very cryptic. I also backed off of Danny solely because I could shoot him last night, which I did. Hope this helps.

[Light-kun]

I'm at L-4, and you question why I would reveal my role?

Also: It would be better to have me shoot myself Tomorrow night:

9-1=8-2=6-1=5-2(me)=3
D2* N2* D3 * N3 *D4

And if I don't kill myself n3 (I will) it will leave a prisoner's dilemma (as not killing myself=me=sk) in which town is likely to win as SK WILL kill who they think is mafia and mafia is forced to kill SK.

If you want me to kill myself tonight, I can. I think that it is better to use today's lynch finding mafia and not wasting our time attacking me. Then again, I know my alignment, so I might be the only one seeing this as a waste of time.

[Light-kun]

I have nothing really to contribute, but based purely on vote analysis:

If Fishy was on the Danny wagon at L-3 and then swapped to Freeko, I think that fishy is scum.

And while Nuwen has made errors, Fishy seems unconfortable with the analysis, as though he fears the possible conclusion of Fishy=scum. Sure, town would too, but I might just be reading too much into it.

Also, if Drake the Fake is scum, Nuwen is scum. They look connected.

Jazz- I'll be very surprised if scum, but this is not impossible.

Otherwise: I got nothing.

Finally: I know I'm making generalities, but you'll have to forgive me. This isn't as condescending as it sounds but: You'll catch up to my line of thought eventually. I see patterns, tones, colors, and other things you fail to notice because they are either not there are so minute that only the insane can see them.

Enjoy.

A lesson:

Prisoner's dilemma (Classic):

A and B are two partners to a crime stuck in two different inquisition rooms. A and B know the following possible results for there actions:

Both stick to the story that neither were involved: They both get ten years.
One says the other were the "Mastermind" and the other gets 20, the one gets 5.
Both says the other were the "mastermind" and both get 20 years.

So, what should prisoner A do?

Prisoner's Dilemma (mafia):
There is a townie, serial killer, and a mafia member.

Day X:
Townie votes no lynch. If Sk or mafia vote for the other, townie won't agree because townie knows that will result in a town loss. So, playing to their win condition, sk or mafia MUST inevitably vote nolynch. (assumes deadline forcing a nolynch.

Night X:
Serial killer and mafia both know that to win, they must kill the other, but if they both do, town wins. If one doesn't, the other might kill them and take victory. As per the prisoner's dilemma, town should win assuming serial killer and mafia decide to shoot the other. Serial killer can only win if mafia no kills and he does (or mafia attacks town) and the opposite is true for a mafia win.

Case and point: A prisoner's dilemma results in town win, which means that if I'm serial killer, I would be very stupid to play as I have. I'm vigilante, end of subject.

[Light-kun]

Like your percentages, I'm having a hard time figuring out how you've come to both of these conclusions. Could you up your analysis transparency a little? I don't know why you're still playing with your cards held to your chest.

Hohum: post, even if your analysis only covers a small portion of the game. I don't like having a player in my blind spot.

I'm basing it off of generalities, so no not really.

[Light-kun]

Even though it implicates me, Nuwen's analysis makes a lot of sense. The three of us were also the ones who voted for LK at the beginning of the day.

Speaking of whom, LK, refusing to explain your statements is anti-town, and asking people to come up with their own explanations for your statements is scummy. If they did try to come up with something, then either it'll make sense to them, and they'll agree with you, or it won't, they'll accuse you of craplogic, and you'll just respond that they're trying to strawman you.

I can recognize a strawman. I want people to argue why my thought is true and why they think a person is town. Slowly so slowly, I am beginning to feel Fishy is mafia. (Is assuming no sk as it is either I or non existent if sk MUST kill.)

I'm going to do something rare:

If Fishy was on the Danny wagon at L-3 and then swapped to Freeko, I think that fishy is scum.

Why do you think I am scum based on this swap, given that both wagons were on townies?

It is because both were scum that this is useful and implicates you. You seem to say here that you are not scum as both were town. But if you were town, would you have not presented a new case or tried to expand your thoughts. As vig, I knew I could kill two birds instead of one. So, my suspect (or someone like DDD who threw me for a loop) could easily be eliminated. You don't have this power and still seem to be subtly looking for the more scummy since, if scum, you would know who is/isn't a townie.

And while Nuwen has made errors, Fishy seems unconfortable with the analysis, as though he fears the possible conclusion of Fishy=scum. Sure, town would too, but I might just be reading too much into it.

Well, if you think I disagree with the analysis simply because it fingers me (as well as two other players) as more likely scum, then that is scummy. In fact, I just don't see Nuwen's logic for thinking that the late switchers are more likely scum. My other disagreement was over point 3), which I think is factually wrong.

1. Why are you not denying it and just agreeing with it as a possibility?
2. Well, arbitrarily (and based somewhere from experience), people tend to think that certain parts of a wagon are more likely to be scum based on the person's play style, manner of the switch of vote, etc.
3. I forget what you're claiming is factually wrong. May look at this later.

Also, if Drake the Fake is scum, Nuwen is scum. They look connected.

Really? Please elaborate.

A note on vote analysis: L-k here thinks I am scum based solely on a vote- apparently independently of context. Myself, I think think my switch was both justified and explained. I think it is likely that the reason the DDD wagon turned into a freeko wagon was because during day 1

DDD got less scummy and freeko got more scummy

.

Jazz- I'll be very surprised if scum, but this is not impossible.

It seems very early to be making such certain statements.

Note that L-k's mafia prisoner's dilemma relies on the serial killer knowing the identity of the mafia (as well as vice-versa, but this is already true). If this is unknown, the townies chance of winning is 50%, as is the mafia's. The point that the serial killer has thrown the game still stands.

Not really. Serial killer should always rationalize that killing the mafia is better because he cannot win if mafia lives. Mafia should think the same thing. As a result, Prisoner's dilemma is a theoretical town win. (This assumes mafia cannot no kill and sk doesn't have a vest.)

I think that DDD's wagon is more interesting than freeko's. By the time freeko's got rolling in any serious way,

This is where you joined....which you exclude. Okay, go on.

it was clear that he or DDD would be lynched,

Maybe for fear of being called out on it but did anyone actually claim this? Why not make a case on someone else?

and scum have an easy time sitting back and voting for the scummier of the two.

Which would then include the later of Freeko's (or DDD's) wagon.

If there is scum impetus behind a wagon, it is most likely either right at the beginning of freeko's or at any point on DDD's wagon.

Particularly with the Freeko wagon, why are you not making a case? You're just stating opinion while being mildly amiable to everyone. Nuwen isn't in this game to do all the work you know.

After this of course scum may have joined/moved wagons, but probably not in a way which is different from a townie.

So, you're either saying townie would be just as scummy in hopping or scum would be just as innocent in hopping. Meh.... I see specious reasoning here. Where's the proof? The back up? *Ding* IRONY! (Is referring to self, shut up.)

Of course, a vote at any stage without a good justification is scummy. But this argument is more compelling when there is a scummy reason for the vote, and yesterday this was truer towards the start of the day.

You are telling me this for what purpose?

I can go with Fishythefish starting the freeko BW, hopping off to get the Debonair Danny DePietro wagon going, and then hopping back onto the middle of the freeko wagon to ride it out through the end of the day as freeko dug his hole deeper.

I can't really be accused of getting the freeko bandwagon going. My vote was for different reasons to all the other votes on him, including my later vote, and is pretty much unrelated to the bandwagon on him. I think you are clouded by hindsight; at the time, freeko was under no kind of pressure, and this is no more an attempt to bandwagon than any other first vote on a player. As I've expressed above, can't see a reason to think that hops from DDD to freeko are particularly scummy votes. The part of my voting pattern most worthy of attention is definitely my vote on DDD. This is the most beneficial vote of the three for scum by far, and merits attention; I suggest you look at the post and other posts I had made on DDD, and decide whether or not you think I justified it sufficiently.

This entire reason reads as bullshit.

Vote Fishy

*Is in shackles: I WANT TO WRITE IN MY DEATH NOTE!! GAH!!!

[Light-kun]

EBWOP: Should read:

"Why my thoughts are false, and why they think a person is town."

[Light-kun]

^
What is bullshit was the reason you gave which I am too lazy to pull apart. Also, you basically seemed to suggest (in your above post) that you were as lazy as the rest of town.

This is kind of...not town? I dunno. I bought into the whole Freeko deal. I didn't like him. I also know that I couldn't play with DDD after Freeko flipped town. This is my thought process and explains my idea (killing two birds.)

However, you almost look passive at both. (I'm not suggesting that being at a particular point on a band wagon is scummy, I'm suggesting that being 3-5 is a passive placement on a bandwagon, which doesn't look good.)

[Light-kun]

Lurker, I mean, looker:
What?

Jere: Point, Jere!

Fishy to serve.

[Light-kun]

CLAPS* The above post makes me happy. In other words, Penguins=happiness and Orange is obviously a genius for recognizing this first. Moving on:

Fishy, in 433 you say you wouldn't have had reason to vote for Freeko if you scum. First off, wifom, no? Secondly, wouldn't the reason be lynching a townie? Not everything has to be part of an intricate strategy.

That isn't what I'm saying. I'm saying that the reason I would have for voting freeko as scum would only apply if I thought he was the scummiest player. I'm certainly not claiming my vote is a towntell, and so wifom doesn't come into it.

As for the reason being lynching a townie; when I voted for freeko, I changed the vote situation from 4 for DDD, 3 for freeko to the other way around. This doesn't get the scum any closer to a lynch on a townie, unless I think that freeko is going to be easier to lynch than DDD; ie. that freeko is scummier than DDD. So yes, as scum I would have had a reason for switching, but only if I genuinely thought freeko was scummier than DDD. In other words, my switch is not useful for telling my alignment.

I have returned from the land of limited access. I'll now be posting more often and providing some actual analysis.

So... you're saying optimal play for scum is to do exactly as you did. You're vote clearly says you thought he was scummier, but you spend your post avoiding saying to that affect. Intentional or not, my conclusion is your trying to downplay or neglect the fact you thought Freeko was scummier (thus easier to lynch maybe?) because you do not want to appear scummy. This worry makes you look scummy.

On the other hand, most of your post against DtF seems ambiguous and weak, yet, your final conclusion about his swap on Freeko...eh...it has some merit. I would like DTF's response.

Looker:
*pulls out casset, pops it back in*
What?

[Light-kun]

QFT

What?

::chumps popcorn in anticipation::

What?

DTF, please respond to:

Um... yes it is? I bolded the section of the post that made me unvote DDD, and you quoted it: I agreed with your sentiment that he was harming his case against DDD, and then I wrote "this this this." I like how you try and allude to the fact that my 283 only sort of eplxains my position - which I think it does pretty well - and then only link to it.

You misunderstand. Your reason for unvoting DDD is explained; however at this point you think it just as likely freeko is tunnelled townie as scum. You don't explain properly how your position changes from this to freeko being scum.

Also, at this point to let people know what I'm thinking:
If someone else is lynched right now, I will shoot Fishy. (Fishy can redeem himself, but I'm letting my current thoughts be known.)

Also, Nuwen, if the town comes to such a consensus, I will shoot myself.

[Light-kun]

doubt it...

What?

Nothing's changed for me. DTF attack against Jere is...meh...I might eliminate Jere tomorrow night to facilitate things, but... No, no...
No need to plan ahead. I do endorse the option of hanging up the fish.

Shall I kill DTF? As long as they are evil, I will write down anyone in my notebook.

[Light-kun]

Nothing's changed for me. DTF attack against Jere is...meh...I might eliminate Jere tomorrow night to facilitate things, but... No, no...
No need to plan ahead. I do endorse the option of hanging up the fish.

This is not useful. Having claimed does not excuse you from playing the game.

You also need to submit to the idea that you're going to be told who, if anyone, to kill. Otherwise you're a detriment to the town, and vigs who screw the town don't last very long.

If we don't lynch scum today, for instance, you better not go vigging anyone willy-nilly.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I'm not advocating that plan, although I do think there's a good possibility that Fishy and you are both scum.

You weren't advocating that plan? But it surprises you that nobody else has advocated for it?

If there's three scum total, then we go into the last day with one scum and two or three pro-town players (depending on if we have Vig-kun strike night after next), and it will be easier to find the last scum.

However, if only one of us is scum, and there's three scum total, then killing all three of us screws town. The doc would have to get lucky for the town to win.

The bolded part sounds an awful lot like, say, advocacy. Especially when you consider that you just said that you do believe that both Fishy and I are scum.

You know what might have worked better? Saying "I think that Drake and Fishy are scum," and voting for one of us. You know: making a case.

In any event, I'm pretty sold on the idea that you, I, and Fishy are merely townies swept up in the tide of unfortunate circumstances and that the lurkers deserve more attention.

Unvote, Vote: Looker

.

For an aggressive amount of active lurking, a complete dearth of actual content, and the continued insistence that people are making posts that are too long.

I did play. My responses were met unsatifactorily. While claiming vig doesn't excuse me from the game, it does mean that I have a nice shiny gun to shoot people. So, since a few people in the town, (should there be enough to save me from lynch, I'll probably do it), want both you and Fish dead, I think that your just worried that if we catch two scum (ie, you and fish), you don't want to die when fish flips scum.

[Light-kun]

I don't like Looker...
He distracts me...
Anyway, I feel a lack of people in our little community. Who wants to come forward, hm? Maybe everyone should sign my notebook, that way I can be sure to have a roll call next time we have a meeting and there will be less inactivity. Hm...?

Hehe... and when its all done, you'll be able to see each other in Hell... <--DN reference.

Seriously though, we made need a mass prod. *Makes note to ask for one if people remain MIA.

[Light-kun]

Unvote; Vote Fishy

I still don't like him. I also really find Jere's last post reads like a GIANT overreaction. Seriously, I highly doubt a town aligned individual should act like that.

How I read:
A: Jere might be scum due to the way he words things...
B: OMFG! I AM NOT SCUM! HOW IS WORDING SCUMMY!? SUPPORT YOUR FACTS WOMAN! (I am too lazy too look up and see if A is or is not a woman. Sorry in advance from the past.)

DtF doesn't strike me as "good" since he comes immediately to Jere's rescue. Hypothesis 1:
DtF is mafia hoping to bring down Jere for crappy play if/win Jere flips scum.
Hypothesis 2:
DtF is mafia defending scum buddy Jere.
Hypothesis 3:
DtF is stupid town defending scummy looking Jere who may or may not be mafia.

This is in order of least to most likely from my perspective.

Therefore, I want Fishy lynched, but if we irregardless do or do not lynch fish, I will shoot DtF tonight. If we lynch DtF, I will probably shoot Fish, as with 9 alive, I see no mathematical reason not to shoot tonight.

[Light-kun]

first hypothesis should read "If/when DtF flips scum."
That said, the rest of your...post doesn't make any sense. So, *acknowledges and ignores*

Thanks for not even attempting to understand my first hypothesis. I still think your stupid, if it's any consolation...

[Light-kun]

I don't really see how my actions are relevant...
Oh, right... death of the town. [/sarcasm] I know this already.

I'm posting nonsense until the town returns. Also, DtF and Fishy for scum. Let's lynch fish, and call it a day.

Side note: The odds I'll die tonight is over 30% at this point... were whole town=100%...

[Light-kun]

First, however, I would like LK to confirm that he is still in agreement with taking direction from the town as to his night action, including whether or not to take any such action.

"still"- was he ever in agreement?

If L-k will not confirm this, in my mind he is automatically today's lynch.

This looks scummy. And honestly, if I were to say: "I will do exactly as the town wants," then I'm still not held by some spell that forces me to react in any particular way, right? The only way to confirm vigilante is to have him shoot himself. That is kind of my point Jazz. I know what's best for town, and even if I were to appease you and say, "Of course I'll do what the town wants" then it doesn't mean anything.

Having pointed that out: Whatever 50% of the town wants.

I still say we lynch Fishy.

[Light-kun]

If person A flip scum, I will probably shoot Fishy.

If person A flips town, I won't shoot anyone.

If we lynch fishy, and he's scum, I may/may not shoot pending on what the town asks.

This is subject to change, but based on Fishy's play...I want him lynched. Also, if we lynch fishy and he's scum, I recommend shooting DtF, but that isn't a requirement for Fishy scum.

[Light-kun]

This looks scummy.

And honestly, if I were to say: "I will do exactly as the town wants," then I'm still not held by some spell that forces me to react in any particular way, right?

The only way to confirm vigilante is to have him shoot himself.

That is kind of my point Jazz. I know what's best for town, and even if I were to appease you and say, "Of course I'll do what the town wants" then it doesn't mean anything.

Having pointed that out: Whatever 50% of the town wants.

I still say we lynch Fishy.

I can't imagine a possible motive for you being this wishy-washy about this except that you are not a part of the town.

More important, not anti town line in italics. Bolded part is proving the stupidity of having a vigilante say I will do X, when there is no way to actually ensure X will happen.

[Light-kun]

EBWOP: It means anyone. If it were a particular person A, then I would have named person A.

[Light-kun]

Jaz, what prevents you from voting for the Fish?

Netlava: What do you think of Fish and DtF who are distinctly connected to Jere by Jere himself? If Jere is scum, what of these two?

[Light-kun]

To waste a post proving I was here:

Ok

[Light-kun]

Jere: Do comment again on Fishy. Do you think he is more or less scummy than the last time you posted on him.

[Light-kun]

Fishy - post 243 on page 10.

What? Post 243 is Nuwen discussing policy lynching.

Based on a better job of discussion:

unvote Looker

Due to the fact that we are down to 9 players, assuming three scum, and our uncertainty about Light-kun's loyalties to this town . . . I vote that he

does not

shoot tonight. If he does, he has played against the town's interest and should be highly considered for tomorrow's lynch. (See previous discussion on our current situation and how it could play out.)

_______________
Let's go Pens!

If we lynch mafia, I think that mathematically, I should shoot.

6 v 3->6 v 2

4 v 2
OR
5 v 1
Mathematically, it's good to me.

[Light-kun]

Jere:

As described before:

1 SK V 1 Town V 1 scum
=town win unless SK really likes scum or scum really likes sk OR they decide to go for a happily ever after ending, which is kind of cool, actually.
So, if lylo with a kill ability other than mafia, town wins/draws always.

Also, we lynch scum, I don't really see the harm in shooting since the benefit outweighs the risk, but whatever.

[Light-kun]

Given that many players in the game will be penguins, and there are only so many species of penguin, I think it would be (slightly) beneficial for the town if claims consisted of species as well as role. There would be a possibility of species counterclaim, since it seems fair to assume that each role has a unique species. The benefit is small, but I can see no disadvantage.

This is a good idea. L-k, what is your species?

Really? Of all the creatures of the ocean you can't even guess?

*Smiles*
Serial killer or vigilante, it makes perfect sense:

I'm the Killer Whale. Now...I demand my flavor, if I'm killed/lynched, be that I swim away dammit! I can't die by a bunch of penguins and whatever the hell the mafia is.

reading, post coming later on - content later later on

Hallowed awesome, Looker's going to post content? Oh wait, I bet it's HIS definition of content. Nevermind.

[Light-kun]

Fishy's scum, and I doubt flavor by the mod can be used to verify a claim one way or the other. Honestly, if you feel like killing me, go ahead. Flavor is one thing I can't defend against. (And for God's sake, we're up against a PENGUIN MAFIA, how much sense do you expect this game to make?)

[Light-kun]

I believe that lynching Light-kun is

not

the lynch option for today. That's why I advocate the no kill order to better determine his alignment.

L-k's species claim is very likely false. L-k is therefore very likely SK. This means that the argument that we should not lynch L-k in order to find out his alignment is no longer relevant.

The fact that the only remotely credible case is built entirely on a scum tactic, to outguess the mod (in terms of flavor, not setup), should be reason enough to lynch you. I want your lynch so much so that, if asked, I would shoot myself to have my way. It's selfish, I know, but I have yet to see anything from you that would credit you with being town.

[Light-kun]

Blame LK. He asked my opinion of you, and I wanted to focus on other stuff, so I just gave him my quick thoughts without spending a lot of time on the analysis. “More scummy by default” is meant to say that other people have decent cases against you, and you haven’t defended yourself against them well. Your defense of yourself hasn’t been good. If I vote for you at a later date, I will make it clear why.

Fair enough.

It took 5 posts because your posts in that period had been small and relating to an unrelated and very topical matter. After your third post without response, I thought it might have slipped your mind.

Maybe it's written.

DraketheFake - 1 (FishytheFish)
JereIC - 1 (Netlava)
FishytheFish - 1 (Light-kun)
Light-kun - 1 (DraketheFake)

Not Voting - 5 (Jazzmyn, Nuwen, JereIC, Looker, HowardRoark)

9 alive, 5 to lynch

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 575)


tubby216 replaces Nuwen!

...
So you're response is to once again provide as little defense as possible...

Can we lynch him now? Please?

[Light-kun]

So you're response is to once again provide as little defense as possible...

Can we lynch him now? Please?

It's time for you to start making sense.
"once again"... where else do I provide little defence?
Did you read the point against me? It was that I had taken 5 posts of mine (and about 24 hours) to demand a response to a question I posed. What do want, and essay? There's a simple reason for my actions, so I give it.
My questions about why you think I'm scum are not rhetorical.

I like that replacing in guy. He understands logic. As for Fishy, I want you lynched. And... I mentioned somewhere how you're scummy, and due to the fact it's late, I'm not going to hunt for them right now. Maybe later.

[Light-kun]

Vote Fish. As a side note, if Fish is town and I die tonight (as vig, obviously) Tubby's odds of being mafia are 61%.

I have nothing to add at the moment. I'm also not shooting tonight as over half the town says.

Fishy, drop dead.

[Light-kun]

DtF, what the fuck? I already said I'm not shooting anyone. Damn, you're stupid.

[Light-kun]

DtF, what the fuck? I already said I'm not shooting anyone. Damn, you're stupid.

Well, to be fair you'd only just said it after a day of playing coy and acting like you were going to do what you wanted.

I think Fish is a mislynch. Even if he's not, he raises a good point about the wagon on him, and we shouldn't take a lynch so lightly at this stage in the game.

And his vote (just removed) on you looks like distancing. If Fishy is scum, you're scum.

Howard: The town doesn't want me to shoot, so I'm not...that was my last sentiment.

So: Cook fish today. The whale's hungry... mmm....

[Light-kun]

And this is weird too. Drake, why did you tell Fishy to claim and then immediately claim yourself when you did not even have any votes on your except for Fishy's?

Because I didn't want a situation where we had a quick hammer before we set in stone that L-k isn't shooting tonight. Also because we're not in a very good position here and people need to understand that before they carelessly throw their votes around. Also because I think people are more inclined to consider the opinions of a power role seriously.

But yeah I understand what that must look like.

If Fishy is scum, you're scum.

You're a fool/scummy player etc.

Dear DTF: If we lynch scum, and mafia miss by your all powerful Doctorness (Sarcasm), I will shoot you tomorrow night. And I repeat for Howard who is obviously hard of hearing: TOMORROW NIGHT.

On asking for species claims: L-k shot someone. The obvious read on this is "man with a gun". The obvious read on "man with a gun" is serial killer. I certainly thought there was a possibility that L-k would not want to claim a species for which "serial killer" made the most sense. In this case, he was very likely to claim a false species. Where is the ridiculous leap of logic you suggest? Once you start thinking about species, and thinking about the only claimed person, this is not a big step.
Also, it's pretty hard to see how this boast of this being my plan all along would be a scum move; outing L-k does not gain me town points, as L-k's lynch would be at least as good for the scum as the town.

I am not ready to claim. There are 4 votes on me I consider bad, and at least two which are unarguably so. I think a hammer now would be a horrible move. As town, you should be questioning the motives of my other attackers, even if you think me scummy.

You know, the only arguable idea I have about flavor is that, even though I targeted Debonair doesn't mean I killed him. It is entirely possible that a serial killer and I targeted him, and when I "found him dead," I did nothing. Therefore, maybe a serial killer and I both targeted him. However, your narrow minded concept that I am serial killer for, essentially, flavor and/or "fucking up my species claim" (paraphrased) is absurd because:

I wouldn't screw up a claim if it were easy to do. If I were a mafia member, for example, I claim vig, town doesn't want me to shoot, I skate bye by paying attention to stuff like that. This aside...

In a mini NORMAL, flavor isn't allowed to have any grand impact on the game. In fact, if this game did have that included, allowing me to clear myself with teeth marks in Debonair's corpse or something, this game would then techinically be a mini theme, and Orange was in Peguin.

Finally: Flavor arguments are bullshit anyway.

Second Point: I find this to be deflection, which is scummy. I see no defense here nor do I see a requested claim.

DtF: I might shoot myself tonight just to test your Doc Claim. Anyone object? *Is very angry at the moment, and wants to shoot DtF instead, but won't...*

The way I see it, DtF is the mafia logical kill. If I attempt to shoot myself and the Doc protects me, I live, the Doc dies, I'm confirmed. If the mafia doesn't shoot the doc, and I die because DtF doesn't protect me, then we lose 2 townies, but get to lynch a mafia member very quickly. If we're both alive with this, we're both confirmed. This does, however, require town trusts me to shoot myself, as if I lied, I would be "confirmed" but actually scum. Yes, this is the single hole in my play but, you get the idea.

[Light-kun]

L-k-

Dear DTF: If we lynch scum, and mafia miss by your all powerful Doctorness (Sarcasm), I will shoot you tomorrow night. And I repeat for Howard who is obviously hard of hearing: TOMORROW NIGHT.

Why post this? Your shots should most certainly depend on flips, deaths etc., no way is looking forward to tomorrow helpful.

I know. Mostly to show that DTF pissed me off. And that I think he is scum.

You know, the only arguable idea I have about flavor is that, even though I targeted Debonair doesn't mean I killed him. It is entirely possible that a serial killer and I targeted him, and when I "found him dead," I did nothing. Therefore, maybe a serial killer and I both targeted him. However, your narrow minded concept that I am serial killer for, essentially, flavor and/or "fucking up my species claim" (paraphrased) is absurd because:

I wouldn't screw up a claim if it were easy to do. If I were a mafia member, for example, I claim vig, town doesn't want me to shoot, I skate bye by paying attention to stuff like that. This aside...

In a mini NORMAL, flavor isn't allowed to have any grand impact on the game. In fact, if this game did have that included, allowing me to clear myself with teeth marks in Debonair's corpse or something, this game would then techinically be a mini theme, and Orange was in Peguin.

Finally: Flavor arguments are bullshit anyway.

I suppose there could be a vig and a SK. Seems like an awful lot of death roles in a 12 player game. If so, we are currently headed to bad places happens. The flavor, if it is as I think it is, couldn't be used to clear you. Only to catch you in an obvious lie.
Your last point, that flavor arguments are bullshit, may be a valid one.

All of them are valid. 1, and complete wifom except to me, I wouldn't fuck that up. 2, Flavor ISN'T allowed to have ANY grand impact on a game. That is pretty much a requirement of NORMAL games. 3, you agree with so meh.

Second Point: I find this to be deflection, which is scummy. I see no defense here nor do I see a requested claim.

There's no deflection, it is a direct response to Jere's post on me. I've said why I refuse to claim. The bandwagon on me is of a shockingly low quality, I think that I should be able to avoid the lynch without a claim (if this town is halfway reasonable), and unnecessary claims are bad for the town.

Another point against L-k shooting himself is that this gives any roleblocker the mafia have two free kills; L-k's and DtF's lynch when it is "proven" he is not a doctor. Altogether, an unworkable idea.

[/quote]
Meh, the point is that I find the "doctor" claim convenient. Real doctor knows better than to counter claim, assuming we have one, and the doctor can't be easily proven. As a result, I don't care for it too much.

[Light-kun]

Fishy, the emperor penguin=doctor doesn't make any sense. Either he's lying or the flavor doesn't make sense. This means that either he and I are both scum, or flavor is bs. Since you still think I'm scummy due to flavor, but haven't said anything about him except defense. Why do you prefer him? Because he's your scum partner.

[Light-kun]

Looker, geniuses? We may or may not be, but this is entirely irrelevant to the conversation. Who do you think is scum?

Fishy: I think JereIC's argument filled in the gaps. I really see no defense on your part sense your play has been so all over the place and you statements were often barely in alignment.

If JereIC is scum, Fishy isn't scum. (No scum would do this to their own partner.) If Fishy is scum, JereIC isn't scum.

Net: Think we should go with Fishy assuming the above?

Jazz: Thoughts?

DtF: Thoughts?

Fishy: Emperor Penguin sounds a tad forced since I know "krill" and "Killer Whale." One of my earliest hypothesis is that scum would probably go for a safe, penguin-related claim. Thus, the sudden, unnecessary claim is highly suspicious. If he is, in fact, town, I would like to kick him in the balls.

Also, if we have a "human hunter," I'd say that he is DEFINITELY a serial killer. 90%+ However, given that the flavor doesn't make sense yet (unless a serial killer and myself attacked DDD), I'd say that this argument is false. (IF the "unless" is true, then that means flavor does make sense and night 1 was just bad luck in terms of flavor making sense. Good luck in 2/3 attackers hitting the same though, keeps our body count above the mafia.)

[Light-kun]

If JereIC is scum, Fishy isn't scum. (No scum would do this to their own partner.) If Fishy is scum, JereIC isn't scum.

I disagree. With Fishythefish being brought to L-1, this is a prime bussing situation.

Yet it was JereIC who helped bring in a strong amount of the case against Fishy...

[Light-kun]

*Chases looker around in a 1920-esque comedic fashion.*

[Light-kun]

*Checks in*

Posting may decrease in upcoming weeks. I will try my best.

[Light-kun]

Fishy, the emperor penguin=doctor doesn't make any sense. Either he's lying or the flavor doesn't make sense. This means that either he and I are both scum, or flavor is bs. Since you still think I'm scummy due to flavor, but haven't said anything about him except defense. Why do you prefer him? Because he's your scum partner.

Reads pretty frustrated to me. A third option obviously exists: that I'm not lying and that the flavor does make sense. What would have made sense for the "doctor" role in this game? A penguin with a med kit? You're grasping at pitiful straws here, and I can't believe nobody else is calling you on it.

You're pretty stupid. Emperor Penguin is a predator penguin that would eat the krill (town) that just flipped yesterday. Why wouldn't you eat some of the reveal species instead of saving them? And claiming "Emperor" as "king" thus giving a decree of protection is also fairly stupid. I'm not saying that any of this is NOT the author's thought process, but my point is Fishy has favoritism for you for some reason. Maybe he thinks you're harder to lynch or maybe you are his scum partner. I think the latter, at the moment.

Howard: Looker always plays like absolute crap. I'm not surprised and I don't support a policy lynch.

[Light-kun]

Howard: Looker always plays like absolute crap. I'm not surprised and I don't support a policy lynch.

So you're not suspicious of her at all? And why so non-chalant about about it?

Fishy, you say that krill=town is the same kind of flavor inconsistency that killer whale=town is. What kind of inconsistency is that, and how is it distinguishable from man=town?

Currently modding a game that had, at its start, Dejkha, Empking, and Zwetchenwasser. I really, really don't get surprised by "don't give a damn, I wanna do this" players, anymore.

[Light-kun]

Just had a thought, Fishy, why wouldn't the mafia actually be Emperor Penguins? They are predators of at least one of the creatures in the game... so it make some sense.

[Light-kun]

Whoa...I'm not really good at this game...and I'm not the easiest guy to sway...

if you're saying Fishy is trying to sway the town against me, that seems pretty self evident...

Looker, what ARE you saying anyway? It seems convoluted.

[Light-kun]

Wait...
Your saying you defended a deeply flawed accusation...isn't that anti town?

[Light-kun]

I think he probably meant that he defended himself against the deeply flawed accusation.

That long write-up on Jazzmyn is coming in a bit while I procrastinate writing my end-of-year papers. Looker's riding pretty high up my list as well.

Objection! Coaching the witness.

My first guess is serial killer, third guess vig, and beyond that; I have no idea why we have a second death. Hm... under the assumption of a 3 person mafia team and 1 serial killer, we might be in a bit of trouble tomorrow. With a vig, we could instruct their actions. And if we're lucky, assuming sk, the sk might listen as to, at least, appear to be vigilante. This could be useful for the time being if nothing else.

Other than that, I can't think of a reason for the kill. Except for some bizzare (though allowed) role like...naive doctor or something.

This is the first post by a living player on D2. Now what on

EARTH

is the VIGILANTE, a pro-town POWER ROLE, doing posting something like this? His first guess: serial killer. I repeat: the claimed Vigilante's first guess is SK. He has "no idea" why we had a second death. Hm... under the assumption of a 3 person mafia team and 1 serial killer, we might be in a bit of trouble tomorrow... hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Hey look, he sets the bait of "At least if it's a vig we can instruct their actions"! What a guy! And hey, hey look! If it's an SK, he might listen to us anyway to APPEAR TO BE THE VIGILANTE! Great advice, kiddo. Too bad you spoiled such a helpful post with your idle set-up guessing about a Quack, hoping that maybe the doctor also targeted one of the dead players by chance and is now questioning his sanity.

I object. You have not proven that normal scum tells, such as "scum claim their kills" and "doctors praise themselves" apply to me. Claiming book won't cut it.

Also, suggesting I don't calculate for every possibility is stupid... that is to say, if I wasn't pressed to claim, I would not have. Therefore, saying a vig would insta-claim his kill is completely moronic. I figured that by painting this up to sk, the mafia wouldn't look for usual vig tells from anyone but me. I figure I crossed those out, so if they attack me, they would hack me as sk, but the odds someone out there who is more likely to look like sk than myself seems high. I am usually kept alive afterall. *Sighs* this didn't play out, of course, but was my planned course of action.

Wait...
Your saying you defended a deeply flawed accusation...isn't that anti town?

I defended

against

a deeply flawed accusation.

Define the accusation. (By whom/why flawed).

[Light-kun]

Define the accusation. (By whom/why flawed).

This is

completely

obvious. Looker attacked me for buddying with you. I have already explained why this is flawed, though it is rather self explanatory.

Oh yeah. This wasn't suspicion on you, my mind just blanked.

Fishy:
Telling mafia that Drake won't protect me ensures my death. Keep it a mystery and let the Doctor, if he is in fact that, reason out what to do. If he is Doctor, he should make the best possible move.

[Light-kun]

This day is dragging on in a giant circle...
I vote fishy lynch.

[Light-kun]

I think if Fishy's scum, based purely on his comments about DTF and Howard, that these two are likely scum buddies, and DTF in particular wouldn't surprise me.

Still, I'm sticking with Fishy, who looks like scum.

[Light-kun]

BTW, why are you voting for Fishy?

Not the kind of question you want to be asking someone you share a wagon with.

This statement is stupid. You seem desperate to make a case against him, and this charge just isn't going to stick.

[Light-kun]

I agree Jere. We're clearly in lylo.
I think a species claim first is best.

Since I and DtF claimed, I think that means DtF should pick the next person to SPECIES claim (first).

DtF: I assume mafia figured Looker is the last person you'd protect, so through good wifom, they killed him.

Scum list:
Howard
Jere
DtF

Or
Jazz
Howard
Netlava

Either way, I am very certain Howard is mafia, but this has almost no case behind it...

[Light-kun]

You're active lurking. Also, I haven't picked the last 6, only 5/6.

I voted for species claim first because even if the species is not role/alignment indicative, I think that two different role types wouldn't have the same species.

Such details should be done. Mass claim can also work, but I advocate species claim.

Side note: Howard is mafia with Netlava?

Not sure who third is.

And what Killer Whale theory?

[Light-kun]

I don't think Tubby is necessarily town, but at the moment, he hasn't done anything scummy. He attacked Fishy for the same reasons as me and his former hadn't piqued my interest.

{}pseudo VOTE Howard{?}

This is safer until we agree on lynch, assuming 3 scum.

[Light-kun]

EBWOP: Species claim of mine: Now or later? (This is at Jere only)

[Light-kun]

Did you pick who goes next Net? *waits*

[Light-kun]

Problem: Given the remaining character claims, vote counts, and play summary; Find scum.

Light-kun: Killer Whale
DraketheFake: Emperor Penguin
Jazzmyn: Adelie Penguin
Netlava: Adelie Penguin
tubby216: Adelie Penguin
HowardRoark: Adelie Penguin
JereIC: Adelie Penguin

Reduction:
-L-K: Self can clear self. (0%)
-DtF: Power balance=Cleared? (7%)

Remaining:
Jazzmyn
Netlava
Tubby216
Howard
Jere

Searching connection network based on votes:


Newlava - 4 (tubby(Nuwen), Howard(mizz.mafia))
Nuwen - 3 ( Netlava)
Fishythefish - 2 (JereIC, Jazzmyn(pac))

12 alive, 7 to lynch.
------------------------
Connections:
Tubby-Howard
Netlava-----X
JereIC-Jazzmyn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fishythefish - 1 (Jazzmyn(pacman))
Debonair Danny DiPietro - 3 (DraketheFake, freeko, JereIC)
Light-kun - 1 (na85)
freeko - 4 ( HowardRoark, )
pacman281292 - 2 (Netlava,)

Not Voting - 1 (Nuwen)

12 alive, 7 to lynch.
---------------------------------------------------------
Connections:
dtf-JereIC
jazzmyn-X
Netlava-X
----------------------------------------------------------
Fishythefish - 1 (jazzmyn)
Debonair Danny DiPietro - 1 (freeko)
Light-kun - 1 (na85)
freeko - 6 (HowardRoark, tubby(Nuwen), DraketheFake)
pacman281292 - 2 (Netlava)

Not Voting - 1 (JereIC)

12 alive, 7 to lynch. freeko is at L-1.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Howard-Tubby
Netlava-X
Jazzmyn-X
--------------------------------------------------------------

Fishythefish - 1 (Jazzmyn)
freeko - 7 ( HowardRoark, tubby216(Nuwen)*, DraketheFake, JereIC*)
Jazzmyn - 2 (Netlava, Amished)
-------------------------------
tubby-JereIC
Netlava-X
------------------------------

DraketheFake - 1 (FishytheFish)
JereIC - 1 (Netlava)
FishytheFish - 4 (Light-kun, tubby216*, Jazzmyn*, Looker)
Light-kun - 1 (DraketheFake)

Not Voting - 2 (JereIC, HowardRoark)

9 alive, 5 to lynch

FishytheFish is L-1.
-------------------------------------------------------------
tubby-Jazzmyn
--------------------------------------------------------------
JereIC - 1 (Netlava)
FishytheFish - 5 (JereIC, tubby216, Jazzmyn)
Looker - 3 (HowardRoark, DraketheFake)
--------------------------------------
Jereic-tubby-jazzmyn
---------------------------------------

From this, I eliminate HowardRoark as a suspect. First: Mizzmafia WAS NOT mafia. I just can't see it.

Second: He's been too helpful today.

Third: He doesn't seem connected to me, but I could be wrong.

I do, however, see a lot of Jere-Tubby-Jazzmyn

I also find that Netlava has only really voted jazzmyn and Jereic, which makes he a potential accomplice.

Reduction:
-HR (21%)

Remainder:
JereIC
Jazzmyn
Tubby
Netlava

Analyzing:
JereIC<---really scummy in some of Howard's analysis, but several of jere's post seem to root themselves in a town player. I'm not sure on him, but connection indicates potential scum....

Jazzmyn <---See Howard's analysis. If you have a problem with it, object now cause you are about 73% scum. (0%=confirmed town)

Tubby<---Nuwen's play seems off somehow. Looking at some meta, her play seemed superior there and secondary. Could be due to being mafia OR being too busy to commit. Null? Tubby has seemed scummy, but a potential team of Jere+Tubby+Jazz seems likely. However, I won't be supporting a Tubby lynch due to lack of evidence.

Netlava<----Hm...seems scummy just from the passiveness of her play. The analysis (Howard) also doesn't flatter Net much either... I'm voting scum on this one.

[Light-kun]

If I had to vote now, it'd be Tubby. In retrospect, his focus on Fishy day 2 looks scummier - and there's not much else from from Tubby himself. However, Nuwen also looks scummy now. Since DtF's doc claim has gone unchallenged, and I'm not about to claim scum, it appears her Fishy-DtF-me analysis was wrong. I could chalk that up to human error, but so few suspects left it seems more likely she was trying to divert our attention (and was doing it pretty well, actually).

Of my remaining likely mafia:
Jere
Jazz
Tubby
Netlava

Jere and Tubby are definitely opposites. Unfortunately, we can't confirm this other than based on the above post. As a result, Netlava and Jazz are 90% mafia. Howard is 21%. Jere and Tubby are = and codependent.

So, who do we lynch? I'm voting Netlava after her last spastic incident.

[Light-kun]

I actually think LK might be vig looking at the role-claims.

SKs are not always required to kill. Most of the time, they're free to choose, especially in mini normals.

Is this based on DraketheFake's statement in 812? Being new to this site, I will not just accept your

mini normal SK no kill

statement as truth. Are you switching back to Light-kun SK? If not, why bother mentioning it?

As for my "passivity," I point out that no one except for fishy was in danger of being lynched yesterday.

How does that excuse you?

Lastly, it's interesting to note that my suspects are the last to point out who they find scummy today.

It is interesting. Even more interesting is the fact that you neither mention apparently dropping JereIC as a suspect nor why Jazzmyn and tubby216 have become your suspects.

@Light-kun: Why are you ignoring the requests to confirm your "Kiler Whale" claim or to honestly claim?

mod: prod tubby216 and Jazzmyn

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

_______________
Let's go Pens!

Earlier when I said "Light-Kun=Killer Whale," I had no reason to lie. There is no humans here, as far as I know. (Unless they're the mafia, but whatever.

[Light-kun]

There are no humans as far as I know. (EBWOP BUMP!)

[Light-kun]

In hind sight, I can see Nuwen mafia at the start.

[Light-kun]

Unvote Drake. We're in a bad enough situation without you voting around without reason.

[Light-kun]

I apologize, but I have just been called out of town. I will be back on Wednesday. Sorry for the inconvenience!

(Will read then!)

I was under the porch because I love you.

The Replacement - 1 (DraketheFake)
tubby216 - 2 (Light-kun, Netlava)
Netlava - 2 (HowardRoark, tubby216)

Not Voting - 2 (The Replacement, JereIC)


7 alive, 4 to lynch

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 873)

[Light-kun]

I support lynching Tubby as all the "townies" being adelie penguins while Drake and I are not, but then the role cop is adelie too? Bullshit. That is bastard modding in my opinion, so I'm going to make the reach and say Orange wouldn't do that.

Vote Tubby

I support this!

[Light-kun]

Umvote

Death Note Mafia is awesome but has literally wiped my brain. Going to look at my last post and the past few pages to remember why the hell I voted Tubby anyway.

[Light-kun]

Oh yeah, the "Adelie penguin-role cop claim."

Yeah, that looks like BS, and since I was easy (just admit I'm vig, duh) and I dunno about JereIC, I'm going back to this:

Vote Tubby

To clarify: I still heavily suspect Jazzmyn and Netlava as scum. Howard is my other guess.

Since it won't matter tonight, I WILL be shooting one of my suspects tonight. Also, Tubby isn't number 1 on my scum list:

Percentages:
Netlava: 45%
Tubby: 39%
Jazzmyn: 35%
Howard: 34%

Sorry Howard, but scum look good (from my perspective), so I doubt a mafiaoso would replace out right now, so Jazz is almost as likely to be scum as you. Netlava I feel has been active lurking most the game where as Tubby contributed. His claim, however, looks like complete bullshit, and I know that I shouldn't buy into flavor this much (I don't...) I just don't see two different roles being the same species. I'm going with hence my vote.

[Light-kun]

EBWOP: Actually, I could almost see mafia rolecop for Tubby. That'd be interesting.

[Light-kun]

To clarify: I still heavily suspect Jazzmyn and Netlava as scum. Howard is my other guess.

Since it won't matter tonight, I WILL be shooting one of my suspects tonight. Also, Tubby isn't number 1 on my scum list:

Percentages:
Netlava: 45%
Tubby: 39%
Jazzmyn: 35%
Howard: 34%

Sorry Howard, but scum look good (from my perspective), so I doubt a mafiaoso would replace out right now, so Jazz is almost as likely to be scum as you. Netlava I feel has been active lurking most the game where as Tubby contributed. His claim, however, looks like complete bullshit, and I know that I shouldn't buy into flavor this much (I don't...) I just don't see two different roles being the same species. I'm going with hence my vote.

At the moment Tubby and Net are voting for each other, so it's unlikely they're both mafia. If scum are really one mislynch away from victory in the Antarctic, it's more likely they'd be pushing for the mislynch rather than bussing each other.

Which makes Howard's earlier hawk-vote for Tubby a conundrum. :?

Actually, if I were mafia (since that is the one thing I'm obviously not), mafia voting each other wouldn't be a bad move because it: Distances AND to win, you just change your vote to another person via bandwagon, other person changes their vote and this is all done in one post (unvote/vote), so there really isn't a disadvantage. It's possible the mafia discussed that town would definitely suspect 1 or 2/3 of them and they want us to be confused on the last 2/3 people. I think that this is all a bit of speculation though.

At tubby: Your species claim is bullshit in my opinion. Yes, there is little sense in a killer whale putting a bullet hole in someone's head. However, there is NO SENSE in an adelie penguin being the townies AND the role cop as a species. 1 species to role type is the only reason for species to exist, in my opinion. So, if it makes you feel better, you just jumped up 8%.

[Light-kun]

Tubby's death is good. Now, we just need to solve for the last two scum players. Drake's death doesn't surprise me too much, but the lack of attack on me prior to now does.

The five still alive are:
JereIC
Light-kun
The Replacement [Jazzmyn] [pacman281292]
Netlava [hohum] [ZEEnon]
HowardRoark [Mizz.Mafia]

Hm... that leave 4 people likely to be scum. 3 of them helped in lynching scum. Therefore, at least one of those 3 is scum. JereIC didn't vote. JereIC with netlava would make the scum team in my opinion.

Thoughts anyone?

[Light-kun]

Notes to consider
All possible remaining scum members:

The Replacement Net
The Replacement Howard
The Replacement Jere
Jere Howard
Jere Net
Howard Net

[Light-kun]

I didn't kill. After doing the math, I found it too risky to shoot even with a scum flip. BBIAM for a further post.

[Light-kun]

My case against JereIC still applies. Off the top of my head, the most major point again JereIC was that he called me a liar while not necessarily being suspicious of me. Which is inconsistent, as calling someone a liar involves being suspicious of them in this game.

I also didn't like his unvote of tubby at L-1. A townie vote to put someone at L-1 is very likely to result in a quickhammer, so if JereIC were town, he would realize this and not unvote to "think about it more," as by that point it is too late.

Now that DtF is confirmed town, I'm a bit confused why the Replacement wasn't hammered. This is my biggest question mark against him, but I think it's quite possible that the scum weren't well-coordinated enough to hammer. So between Replacement/Howard, I'm still debating who is scum, though at this point I'm leaning scum on Howard. I think JereIC is my top pick for today, with Howard as my second pick.

You're initial attack (the liar statement) is false. His unvote of Tubby does make him suspicious and is noted. Now, would you care to make a case linking Howard or Replacement to jere? There are only six possible scum pairs, and if you exclude yourself, that makes 3. H+J, J+R, H+R

Pick one and prove it.

[Light-kun]

In my opinion, Jazz, that is the replacer (sic), is definitely mafia. I haven't a clue who is mafia with this person.

[Light-kun]

Hm...interesting. No defense Replacement?

[Light-kun]

Vote JereIC

[Light-kun]

I think the scum team is Net+JereIC.

I mean, Net has a case on Jere for a long time and then votes Howard as his scum partner?

Lame.

[Light-kun]

You've been scummier for longer.
The case against you is more valid.

[Light-kun]

I have very little evidence and it's all hunch. You seem scummier. *Shrugs* Just opinion, I guess.

[Light-kun]

I wasn't great. I formally apologize for playing fairly sub par. I got zero scum reads on Howard, I couldn't build a case on TR, but I just *knew* he was scum. The case on Net was about the same as TR and I thought that they could be mafia partners, but then it occurred to me that Jere could be a partner with Net, and since I couldn't attach TR to anybody, I let it slip.

Sorry.