Mini 763 - Carnival Mafia - Game Over

[Kairyuu]

vote: ortolan

Picking on people who pick on numbers in usernames is a big no.

[Kairyuu]

OK. Since long random stages piss me off, and we have nearly a page already (yes, I'm that impatient) let's kick off the real discussion.

@Nocmen:

And by the way, is anyone hungry?

Explain this please. We have been warned that this game has bastard-ish elements in it and I would like to know if this is one of them.

[Kairyuu]

@Nocmen:

Nothing related to the game. I just happened to make that post before I was getting lunch, and all I could think about was getting food in my mouth.

I know what you mean. My lunch is cooking at the moment and it's making it slightly difficult to concentrate at the moment.

@DDD:

For disliking a "long" RVS when this one hasn't even reached a page. Talk about impatient

Is that scummy though? If it is, why? If it's not, why are you voting me for it?

@Nocmen again:

Though Kairyuu, why would you say you dislike long random phases when just a few posts earlier, you went with the same kind of random votes you dislike?

Random voting = good. It allows us to look back later and look for subconscious slips, like one scum voting another so that people will be less likely to believe that they could be buddies.

Long random stages = bad though. Once we have those little few votes we don't need to be dealing with stupid comments anymore. I'm a very impatient person, so once I got in my vote I wanted to get on with the game.

unvote

by the way, as there is no longer any reason for it.

@S_n_M:

Well, what do you suggest then to start moving the game instead of the rvs?

As Nocmen said. Questions, and lots of 'em. Poke and prod at little things until the big things start popping up. Then charge headlong at those big things until we can lynch some scum.

@WLC:

Do you think double posting is scummy behavior? Being erratic?

This.

@all: All things considered, I am going to

vote: Datadanne

. He seems to be attempting to extend the random stage when others are actually asking questions and trying to move us out of it. I've seen this behavior only once before, and it was used by scum (our mod was in that game, so he may remember too).

[Kairyuu]

@Nocmen:

I understand the reasoning for your vote fine. However, I really dislike that way you say that you've seen behavior like that before. While I agree with that extending random stage seems like a possible scum tactic, you're comment seems like you're really trying to find justification for a vote like that.

That's just my style. If I've seen something before I tend to try to point that out to show where I got my reasoning from. I can link completed games where I've done it if you'd like.

I'm seeing both of these votes as having very poor justification and reasoning.

And that's your prerogative, but as you said yourself, it's not really possible to push us immediately into full fledged discussion mode where the larger cases come into play without a springboard. I see this little transition period as that springboard.

[Kairyuu]

I do agree that prolonging random stages is not a desirable thing to do, but the initial stage itself is important to the game. Although, I don't really think that Datadanne is consciously making an attempt at prolonging said stage, because it doesn't seem forced. It's probably just their personality type, and I don't think that it's near enough ground to lynch or vote.

The above is noted. It looks like you are making excuses for his actions, which may be scum worried about a buddy beginning to come under fire.

[Kairyuu]

@ChiefSkye4:

To tell the truth, I made the connection because I have many friends who think "random spew" is a sense of humor. And do you disagree?

I do disagree. After playing with several players who think it's perfectly fine to just ignore the game and do whatever they feel like doing I don't deal well with them. I don't think that that sort of situation is what we are seeing here though.

Do you think his randomness is forced?

No. Do you think randomness needs to be forced in order to have it unduly extend the random stage, on purpose or otherwise?

P.S. If that's the logic you're using, I made excuses for you, and WLC also lol.

How so? For Datadanne you provided a possible reason why he was not joining in the beginnings of discussion, giving him an excuse to possibly cling to. For myself and WLC you simply said that you didn't find us scummy for attacking Data, and provided your subjective reasoning for why you think that way. There is a rather important difference.

[Kairyuu]

Expect possible V/LA in the very near future. I'll let you guys know if it is confirmed.

Noted. ~SP

[Kairyuu]

OK. DDD, I don't like it. At all. However, I don't have the time to comment properly right now, so I'll just link you a couple of games (some are ongoing, but D1 is over and that's all this sample set requires) that I can think of just off the top of my head.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9123

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10705

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9048

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9002

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10400

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9947

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10260

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9678

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10310

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... start=1150 (this one doesn't technically count because the lynch D1 failed, but the scum was caught and strung up D1, he was just immune to the lynch type and we got him D2)

So yeah. Those are just games I've played in/been following. Get a better sample set before you make such foolish generalizations.

[Kairyuu]

SO DDD, essentially you are saying "Let's not play mafia. Instead, let's turn the game into the random bullshit that many critics call the game, because that way we don't have to worry about competing with the scum, only the odds." Sorry, but that is just stupid, and there is no way I will ever go along with that.

Point 1:

No lynch is truly random. You decided, based on your own subjective reasoning, that Datadanne is the best D1 lynch. That

automatically

moves us straight to the semi-informed lynching that you are trying to avoid (note: keeping the town from getting information by playing the odds instead of the game is anti-town).

Point 2:

We do not know your motives, and therefore do not know if we can trust you or not. That right there will also push us away from the randomness you want to use. The only real way to get something random is if the mod or some unbiased observer rolls a die and we lynch the player whose number comes up. Besides the fact that that is foolish to the extreme and goes against the point of the game, SP wouldn't allow something like that methinks.

Point 3:

You are willing to push for a lynch that you claim yourself has only a 25% chance of hitting scum, and which will leave us just as much in the dark as we are now based on wagons, debate, and reactions/voting patterns. This essentially puts us into D2 with one or more people dead, but no new information to help power roles make choices N1 or for us to work with D2 without said power roles claiming with results, which would be stupid.

Please explain to me exactly how this lynch you are proposing will benefit the town more than it will the scum. If you can convince me, I'll move my vote off of you.

unvote

and

vote:DDD

In regards to my sample set, I could go through all of the games I have ever played in and/or read and/or been told about and give you exact numbers, but I won't, because that would take me several hours and would clutter the thread with 100+ games, including quite a few that don't even apply (really old games where the meta was totally different or games like Bad Idea Mafia that have totally different play mechanics). As I said before, those are just some of the more recent games and those that popped into my head specifically.

I can say similar things about your sample set as well though. You have given an unsupported number and expected us to believe that, not only are you telling the truth, that those are all of the games you have read and you are not skewing your own sample to suit your desired result.

How about this, do what you did with VP. Add my sample to yours and his. That brings you up to 11/34, which is 32.35%, and invalidates your own argument. I doubt you will do that though, since VP's sample was so small that it would have no real effect on your numbers, and mine is large enough to make a difference.

[Kairyuu]

@DDD:

Perhaps random isn't the word I wanted, but instead pre-determined. It could be random, but as long as the lynch is pre-determined and not swayed by the contents of the game then the random assignment of roles is enough to make the math work.

The math doesn't work regardless of how you want to set it up, because it is inherently biased simply by the fact that

you

, a

player in this game

are suggesting it. If you are town, you are wagering the entirety of D1 on Data being a VI and needing to die. If you are scum, you can have any number of motives for pushing this garbage. We cannot trust your idea (neglecting the fact that the numbers point to it being a very bad idea) regardless of how you try to present it because you are biased from having a stake in the outcome.

[Kairyuu]

@DDD:

This is hilarious, you're so protective of the sanctity of the game that you'll chose sub-optimum strategy just to spite change. And I never claimed this was optimum strategy for anything besides day one where the town has limited information to go off of

Why yes, I am protective of the sanctity of the game. I come to this site to play mafia, not to act as a mere name in a statistical analysis.

That said, your strategy is sub-optimal even for D1, regardless of the amount of times you claim that ~25% (which is not the actual number, though you are ignoring this) is better than an arbitrary number that is directly proportional to the ratio of the skill of the town to the skill of the scum. If we play well and the scum play poorly, our scum catching % goes up, if both sides play well then it remains about the same, and if we play poorly, but the scum plays well, then the % goes down. Your proposal is only optimal in one of those three situations, and I, for one, will not assume a stupid town and a smart scumgroup when my play is a factor in the numbers. I'd rather play my best and go off of actual skill than pseudo-random chance.

You're partially correct, but the lynch doesn't have to be random, just pre-determined and not influenced by the current game itself. Since nothing datadanne does will move my vote (if I can convince people to adopt this plan) then it meets the criteria of pre-determined.

So you are still ignoring the fact that your stake in this game automatically makes any and all decisions you make biased towards advancing the win condition of your faction. The decision on your part to pick data was directly influenced by the role pm you received from the mod telling you what your role is, and the information you gained from that. Your argument does not hold up in this specific point, which is the crux of your entire plan, and falls apart virtually everywhere else as well.

You shouldn't trust me; however as I mentioned true randomness is not necessary for the theory to hold, only that the subject be chosen and that selection unaffected by present game behavior.

see above

As for sussing out my motives, well I guess you'll have to do this thing called "play mafia" which you seemed real gung-ho on before to try and figure out what my possible motives could be, it appears WLC and CS4 have already started this fun endeavor.

So you are admitting to being anti-town? Thanks for clarifying. You should show by your actions that you are town, not expect others to guess at your motives while you do whatever the hell you want. Mafia is a team game, but you don't seem to be here to play it. I suggest you either get this foolish notion that anyone will agree with you out of your head and start trying to find the scum, or accept the fact that your idea hurts the town and helps the scum, which means you deserve to be lynched for it.

NO IT WON'T, read my fucking posts instead of parroting the same tired lines.

The "tired lines" are correct. Your suggestion is foolish. This will remain true no matter how many times you say we are wrong. No one agrees with you, and the reasons for disagreeing with you hold more water than your plan. Argument from repetition is not going to make you right.

The proposal to lynch Datadanne is contingent upon the day continuing as much as normal so that we do have all that same information, but in the end declaring where your vote would've gone and voting for datadanne anyways

Someone mentioned this already (too lazy to look up who), but what you are suggesting here is that we play out a normal D1, determine who is the scummiest and should be lynched, and then leave them alive in favor of your "random" lynch. How on earth is that in any way productive. It is still a waste of a Day, because if said person we "pseudo-string up" is scum, we will have to waste an entire Day not lynching him, and then have to get around to it eventually anyway. Your plan is counter intuitive and fails to make any logical sense.

I agree, if we all just voted for datadanne right now that would be a terrible idea, but that's not what I'm suggesting.

The methods are different but the results are the same. You still advocate lynching an unhelpful player "randomly" over lynching a scummy player for being scummy. Are you actually reading what you are posting?

Please explain to me how my behavior is that of scum and you're not simply moving your vote on to an easy town target.

Did you not read my question or something? Your method benefits the scum while hurting the town. This is inherently scummy, and therefore makes you more likely to be scum. You are a very vocal proponent of your idea, and are not afraid to get your hands dirty in an argument. How does that make you an easy target?

I understand, but it's only by doing that or a random sample will your data be useful in statistical analysis.

Fine. I will go through tomorrow and pick a site area to take every single game from page two and compile a sample set based on that. We will use that as the unbiased set, because it includes an indexing of games, not just nitpicking.

Correct, I don't have hard verification of this, I wish I did. I only can assume that the experience of others has been somewhat similar.

Mine hasn't, obviously. When I'm not scum I notice that the town has a tendency to lynch scum D1 ~30-40% of the time. It is really quite a bit more nuanced than you are arguing it to be. With a crappy player set you are more likely to see townies acting scummy because they don't know better, but in a strong set you can expect good play from everyone that drastically lowers the amount of scummy actions committed by townies.

I didn't include your numbers because you admit that you cherry picked your data to support your opinion. Now I get that you're suggesting the same of me (not true, but maybe this will assuage your fears), but if we look at the games I've played only which is verifiable if you like the number is 0/6, add on VP's verifiable 1/3 and we're at 1/9 or 11%, still not even half as good as a random lynch.

This is a perfect illustration of my point. The games you played in had a 0% scum catching rate on D1, which is rather poor. However, you need to take into account the types of games played, the level of play, the identities of the scum, etc. to determine the actual reason why there was not a successful lynch D1.

On the other hand, if you look at VP's sample in isolation you have a 33% rate, which is a pretty decent bit better than the random 25% rate you want to shoot for. The same variables apply to VP's sample set as well. He said himself that in the game where there was a successful lynch D1 the townies used strong logic to round up VP's buddy.

You are altering the data and the sample sets to make it look like you are right, when simply viewing in isolation changes the perspective completely.

The Lynch: By lynching a random or pre-determined target on day one the projected success rate is better than the rate from the semi-informed guesswork that usually constitutes day one.

This is a totally unverifiable subjective opinion.

Loss of Information: But how do we prevent the loss of information that pushing a pre-determined lynch would invariably create? We do as I proposed, continue the day relatively normally investigating and poking and prodding. We use a device such as Pseudo-Vote: XYZ to indicate voting intent so that voting trends can be monitored as before. Only when a majority of people feel that enough information has been collected that they cast a final pseudo-vote and really vote for the target.

And then we are left D2 with the exact same scummy player still alive and no information about whether or not he was scum.

Failsafe: Even though we've improved the lynch success rate there's still a strong likelihood of lynching a townie of some stripe. Hence, this is where a selection of target occurs, choosing the player least likely to damage the town's chances of winning. Since this is a theme game with bastard roles it's foolish to attempt to outguess the mod on roles, so the criteria should be scumhunting ability and ability to withstand scrutiny so as not to be run down by scum as an easy target.

So because he's a VI we can lynch him without hurting the town if he flips town? Wrong. We will lose one player guaranteed, and may lose more during the Night. That cuts our majority and puts us a Day closer to lylo. Hardly an example of not hurting the town.

The first two pieces are true regardless of who the selected target is, it’s only the fact that I’ve built a relative safeguard into the process to prevent the town from losing it’s more valuable pieces that datadanne is selected.

The fact that you need to build a safeguard into your plan shows that you do not have confidence that you plan will work, and should therefore not be pushing it.

{Preview Edit}

Ok. I missed a decent amount of stuff while typing that up. I'm still gonna leave it in there even though it doesn't quite apply anymore to show my reasoning. There are a few more bits that need attention though.

@VP:

I don't like you backing out of saying it's random because that seemed to be an important part of your argument, and random in this particular game would yield an 8.33% chance of lynching scum--not 25%. I'm curious where you even got that number from.

25% is the number that I would assume is correct as well. Why is it 8.33%.

@DDD:

Surely you've seen players like Datadanne before... empking, zwet, millar? People easily hop on their wagon because their play is consistently anti-town and annoying and no one objects since they are the most anti-town player in the game and afterwards there's nothing for anyone to say because everyone agreed the play was terrible.

As much as I dislike players like that, I prefer not wasting lynches on them. I find that trying to get them involved usefully in the game and then having them get vigged works so much better (and is so much more satisfying). People who lynch VI's for playing like idiots are just too lazy to find a better choice.

No one wants to push the boundaries of strategy

I'm all for pushing the boundaries of strategy, and working against site meta. I do that all the time because of the indecisiveness of most players on this site. However, turning the game into a statistics exercise is not a strategy, but rather an evasion of strategy in favor of luck.

I feel rather uncomfortable at L-1 (if that is indeed where I am) and promise to put together a cognizant defense of myself over the next few hours and to place questions to other people, but I'd appreciate a single unvote so that a drive-by lynching can't happen and hurt the town, especially so early.

Jumpy scum is jumpy now that he realized how close he is to being lynched. That attitude makes me more convinced that you are the best place for my vote. I will not be unvoting.

Someone who made a point of needing information from day one and my plan hurting that should unvote, because a quick lynch on page four would be the epitome of that problem and you'd be a hypocrite to allow me to be quick lynched while talking down my previous plan.

Guilting people into backing off is foolish and scummy. Especially considering that it is common courtesy to allow players at L-1 to speak in their own defense and claim before deciding whether or not to lynch them.

Oh yeah, by the way. L-1. Claim time.

[Kairyuu]

Grrr. Cross posting unvote makes Kai angry.

[Kairyuu]

@VP:

1 divided by 12 (a random picking of who to vote) = 8.33%

Aren't Minis supposed to have 3 scum? I think the 25% was probably right.

I think the correct play at this immediate moment is to give DDD a defense post and wait for the several people who have contributed little to nothing at this point a chance to say something.

This I agree with, but I won't unvote to do so.

You rushing the claim is noted though Kairyuu.

YAAAAAAY!! Something I did was noteworthy!!

(It's late, so I'm not quite sane. Please excuse my multiple personalities poking through )

In other news, note away. I have nothing to hide. *twitch*

[Kairyuu]

@DDD:

Anyways, it’s a touch sad that Kairyuu spent presumably all that time putting together than massive all of text after I already conceded the argument. But considering all the grief he’s given me it’s not all that sad.

It's ok. You can let the tears flow. I don't mind. You don't have to hide your sorrow.

Furthermore, I dislike the whole arguments about mafia not being a game of numbers when it clearly can be. Just because you prefer the psychological bent of the game, doesn’t invalidate the numerical/logical style, but all of that is neither here nor there.

I propose we move this to MD after the game is over. Agreed?

If I was scum I see two basic explanations for my actions: one, there are multiple scum and I was bussing a partner in crime. This of course means that I was basically trying to hand over a massive advantage on day one when it simply wouldn’t have been necessary. Considering my ill-fated argument revolved around increasing a first day lynch percentage, it doesn’t quite fit that I’d simply hand away a ~15% advantage for no reason. Second, if I was scum I’d be trying to lynch a townie, but as everyone noted if the plan had occurred and datadanne had flipped town then my ass would’ve been in the fire even more than it was. Neither course of action makes real great sense as scum.

This could very well be the exact type of spotlight WIFOM that Artem snowed me with in C9++ (mini normal, can't remember what number). You could make this exact argument D2 after getting us to lynch a townie (assuming data town) and it would apply just as much as it does now.

Even disregarding the motives, simply posting such an argument runs contrary to how I understand to and attempt to best play scum, I even acknowledged in post 50 that I was expecting to draw questions and flak. There’s no reason for scum to do something as blatant as that when I could’ve sat back and picked an easy target for easy reasons instead of making life that hard on myself. All in all, the post doesn’t make sense from the perspective of scum.

See above, but that isn't to say I don't agree with you. Logically speaking your idea is pro-scum in nature with an easy WIFOM defense available to you. I know I wouldn't have a problem drawing flak on myself as scum if I thought I could get away with it. However, statistically you are arguing from solid ground right now. I'll think on it, and I may unvote.

Null-tell, everyone should be jumpy at L-1 to a certain extent and both pro-town players and scum players should generally try to avoid being lynched.

If you are town you should make your argument in your defense and then allow people to decide if they believe you or not. Calling for an unvote before your explanation implies that you are afraid of the position you are/were in. If you are town then I don't see why you shouldn't be confident that you can prove your towniness and avert your lynch. After all, there should be nothing you've done that you can't explain.

It’s also foolish and more than a little anti-town to say definitively that you won’t be unvoting.

Read my wiki. I tend not to move my vote around much. Until I see someone scummier than you it is unlikely that I will shift it. That's just my style.

First off, it makes it seem as if you’re unwilling to hear any further discussion on the matter, which runs contrary to your information valuing meta. Furthermore, if a better target comes along are you stuck still voting me because you don’t want to seem a hypocrite or does your vote actually move then and makes you a liar?

Thank you for putting words in my mouth and strawmanning. Please point out where I said I wanted you lynched immediately (cutting of discussion) and also where I said that I will never move my vote, regardless of other developments.

@ortolan:

No but seriously, why did you want that claim so prematurely?

L-1 is not premature. Also, early wagons to claims rarely happen anymore, and of the older games where I've seen them they tend to work well to increase the likelihood of D1 scumlynch. Besides, current meta states that L-1 = claim time. I'll not apologize for calling for it.

Also, explain your reasons for your vote.

@VP:

After making my original post I quickly realized that my math was wrong because it only factored in there being one scum. I have no idea how many there are, but you guys are most likely closer to being correct at 25% than I am. Guess it is best to think things through before posting.

Gotcha. No big deal.

@data:

unvote

and

vote: Datadanne

Post content. Now.

[Kairyuu]

Edit, crossposted:

unvote

and

vote: Nocmen

This is a bit of outguessing the mod, but I think you may have just slipped up big time.

[Kairyuu]

@Nocmen:

How do you believe I've slipped up?

You're speculating about what the scum are, which means you have a different win con than I do, because mine specifies where in the theme the scum fit.

The flavor sets up nicely for a single scum group, and I really think that VP slipped up with his own role trying to make odds and then correct them.

I agree about the single scumgroup (more role info) but VP's mistake looks if anything like a SK who accidentally assumed he was the only scum. However, role info still points to a single scum faction.

I also like the irony of how you say you rarely change your vote, and you move it twice right after saying that.

Yeah. Can't argue there. I couldn't just ignore such a major slip though, now could I?

[Kairyuu]

No time now. Catching up and content tomorrow.

[Kairyuu]

And Nocmen is still scum, just so ya know

[Kairyuu]

OK. Quick note as I begin my larger post:

Nocmen is scum because he does not have the pupeteers as the people he needs to kill to win (hence him not knowing who the scum are flavor-wise) and is therefore one of them.

Shinnen_no_Me is confirmed town in my eyes, because he/she(clarify please) knew that it was the puppeteers that were the scum.

Confirm vote: Nocmen

Sorry friend, the flavor has conspired against you.

[Kairyuu]

@ortolan:

It was clear there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him at that point in time, and if there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him, then there was zero legitimate reason for asking him to claim.

I disagree. I still hold DDD to be reasonably high on my scumlist for the sheer amount of damage that his plan had the potential to cause. I would not be overly concerned if he was lynched right now (though Nocmen is 100% confirmed scum, so him first).

@DDD:

There's an older thread entitled "Mafia is primarily a game of..." which covers much of this ground, though my viewpoint is a minority one in the poll. If you still want to run an actual experiment, I'd be willing to run the statistics if we designed it properly.

That would be interesting. I believe that Shanba may have beaten us to the punch though.

And I didn't call for everyone to unvote, just a single unvote so that if someone like lixyl did exactly what they did that I wouldn't be quick-lynched which would hurt the town. My jumpiness wasn't due to weakness of my arguments, but because of my general distrust of everyone else.

Meh. I'm willing to call your request a null tell at this point because you seem to have been right. I assume people to be rational, but some people just don't fit that description.

@WLC:

@Kairyuu: who is 'Current Meta', and are you let him join this game? J/k I find 'meta' a bit vague and disturbing, and I don't think anyone should use it. Too much excuses can be made when using 'meta' as an argument. I don't think good scum would bound themselves by it.

No using meta, AND no double posting? That's just

mean

.

But seriously. I use player meta, site meta, and tells from past games as parts of my cases. It's how I roll, and it works pretty well (though I used to be quite wary of meta too, until I realized how useful it is).

[Kairyuu]

All of the mods I've seen prohibit quoting, but allow paraphrasing.

[Kairyuu]

I didn't ask for your win con. I inferred based on the fact that you were speculating on where the scum faction fit into the flavor (coincidentally, a trick I pulled in Mini Theme 658: Facedown and Thirsty Mafia, as scum) that you did not have the same win condition as I do, which gives specifics. Therefore, since my win con tells me to kill scum, yours must not, making you scum.

[Kairyuu]

@Mod: 残念。 それは再度起こらない。(Sorry. It won't happen again)

So. ChiefSkye and Nocmen are teh scumz. Lynch Nao plz?

In all seriousness, I would like Nocmen to claim. We can move away from role pms as the mod said, but we can't just ignore this.

[Kairyuu]

Methinks it was about you. I would say you proved yourself scum far more strongly than Nocmen did.

-goes to check votecount so I know if my vote is hammer-

-wants to hammer-

You should probably claim, Chief.

[Kairyuu]

Only L-3. Oh well.

unvote

and

vote: ChiefSkye4

Nocmen for tomorrow.

[Kairyuu]

Win con for me. I agree with Shanba, but I don't like using other people's cases.

[Kairyuu]

And now we have 100% confirmed scum.

Post 4 says you're lying.

Die scum die.

[Kairyuu]

@ortolan: What really did it for me was when Chief claimed Bearded Lady. That and the fact she was trying to fit in with the *censored* but missed the mark has me 100% convinced that she's scum.

[Kairyuu]

@DDD: The one where town never lynches scum D1.

[Kairyuu]

After the game I'll help you out with that. I want to see the results of that too.

[Kairyuu]

I thought DDD was the hammer. You may be too late ortolan.

[Kairyuu]

Wait. No. I'm wrong. L-1.

[Kairyuu]

Ah. Must have missed the Shanba vote the second time through.

[Kairyuu]

As much as I hate to do this because I like the way he is playing, I must

vote: Nocmen

. You proved that you were not aligned with the town during D1. Unless you can provide a good reason why we should keep you alive, I think you are the best choice.

On another note, WLC I could run with, but not Shanba. I see no reason to lynch him.

[Kairyuu]

Still waiting on Nocmen to come tell me why he shouldn't be lynched.

@Shinnen: Information that is already out is already out. Ignoring it now would not be playing to win. We were barred from discussing win cons further, but building cases out of previously revealed information is acceptable (I would assume).

@DDD: First off, what possessed you to reveal that you thought Emp was an investigative role? How on earth does that even come

close

to helping the town? If Nocmen can prove himself not a threat, then you're getting my vote. It's like you're going out of your way to give the scum as much of an advantage as you can.

[Kairyuu]

@DDD: Did you read post 175?

[Kairyuu]

More later. Possibly tonight. Possibly tomorrow. No time now.

[Kairyuu]

@DDD: To start, you are acting even more irrationally than D1. Why? Is there a method to your madness, or are you just flailing wildly because you feel like it? It's starting to annoy me.

And in regards to your 265, go read 175. Now. It's Noc's claim to receive money based on how well the carnival is doing. Try getting your facts straight before speculating about power roles. Actually, how about this. Don't speculate about power roles

at all

!

More coming, probably tomorrow.

[Kairyuu]

@all:I have a few theories about DDD right now. One of them could be very good for us, and the other could be very bad. Either way, lynching him is not the way to go at this moment. Nocmen first.

Also, I have a crapload of homework this weekend, so I'll be less than active until Monday.

[Kairyuu]

@DDD: Stop that! You're making me reconsider everything I say. Bad DDD. Down boy!

[Kairyuu]

V/LA until Monday night

Noted. ~SP

[Kairyuu]

I'm semi back. Don't expect more than this post from me today.

@DDD: You are really pissing me off right now. I am sick of this crap, and I'm just going to lay out all of the possibilities I see, regardless of whether you are going to get NKed or not. You are detrimental to the town.

You are either:
1. A jester, in which case we should do anything

but

lynch you.

2. A politician, in which case this revelation damages the town (but I don't care, because politician is a horrendous role for the town anyway).

3. Trying out Slayer's Gambit, in which case you are doing a really bad job of it and need to stop acting deliberately anti-town. The gambit doesn't work in the least.

This list is, of course, assuming you are not a) stupid, because you have proven yourself to be intelligent, and b) merely suicidal, because that would be bad form on so many levels.

I want a claim. Immediately. I don't care that you aren't close to a lynch. You need to explain your behavior

now

.

@all: Yes, I know I said lynching him could possibly be good, but I was assuming he could possibly be extremely stupid scum, but I dropped that idea, because I don't think he would be that stupid.

Also, lynch Nocmen! I actually agree with Empking on something for once.

[Kairyuu]

@Grimmy: And why didn't you jump on me D1 when ortolan was attacking me for the exact same thing you just voted me over?

I dont like the claim fishing when combined with you bringing up the possibility of him being a jester. Would you seriously expect him to claim to be as such?

No. If he was a Jester I would expect some sort of crazy claim out of right field. I called for the claim to try to read him based on his reaction. It's not working.

Also, I think you are reaching way to far for reasons for his gameplay. That is also suspicious to me.

How is is suspicious? I want stated reasons as to why attempting to get a read on someone's motives is scummy. Otherwise your vote is baseless.

@DDD:

At very least I'm fulfilling my personal win con. Enjoy the game and I'm enjoying this one very much.

Enjoying the game at the expense of the enjoyment of everyone else is rude. If you can't have fun by playing properly then you should not play at all. However, I know you can play properly, so do it.

Any alignment and I've decided to simply be a prick for the game, possibly a prick with a death wish. Doesn't make much sense as a townie since we lynched scum on D1; could be disgruntled scum protesting against a broken setup. Doesn't make any sense as a survivor, does make sense as a jester except...

Jester doesn't make much sense, since I was at L-1 on D1 and immediately pled my way off it when I could easily self-hammered or waited for lixyl to do the deed for me.

OK. So you have admitted that you are not a townie, and your Jester an scum points point makes sense. That's 1 point for and 2 point against you for that.

I could be a townie with a power role, by behaving like this I've basically assured that scum won't kill me and I can use my role to help win the town the game.

But that wouldn't make any sense either, as a town power role acting like you are could very easily be brought to claiming position or even lynched for the behavior. Plus, if we have a vig you could draw that kill instead of the scumkill. 1 point for and 3 against. You are almost assured to be not pro-town aligned.

I could be a survivor, or scum who after D1 got a great read on you guys especially Kairyuu and realized as long as I was completely and blatantly anti-town that you'd actually not lynch me because why would scum behave in such a stupid fashion as you were pushing earlier.

I wanted to lynch you D1, and I am beginning to lean in favor of it again. We are as strong as our weakest link, and if you are town, then you are weakening the overall town play. At this point you cannot be allowed to survive to lylo because if you are town you may win scum the game. I think you need to die either today, tonight, or tomorrow.

Or put your imagination to the test and see what wonderful other (mostly third-party) roles you can come up with for me. My current favorite is The Human Daredevil, someone who has to get to L-1 X times during the game to win. Free your mind from the shackles of conventional thought and you too might dream up a role that would fit.

Funny, but you seem to have missed my politician idea (must get the most votes out of any other player but not be lynched). I'd say that is a decent assumption.

So give it a rest that you've got a read on me, you have absolutely no idea what I am or who I'm aligned with.

The whole damn point of this game is to get reads on people. That you are mocking the fact that we are trying to read you is horrendous play. If you are town then you should have no problem getting us to read you.

Well if you want to claim go right ahead, I won't stop you.

*headdesk*

And isn't that ironic, you're scared to put me closer to getting lynched, and you can't threaten me into "behaving" by not voting for me, what a conundrum. For you.

Nope. I'm not scared of doing anything.

vote:DDD

Lynch Nocmen!

You first. Then him.

[Kairyuu]

OK. Firstly, that was quite a fast Night. Secondly, an

Even Day Jester

? Daaaamn. Heh. Oh well. DDD played us well.

@Nocmen: Anything last Night?

I'd like to go for WLC today. I reread the initial issue with Nocmen and I found information that led me to believe he is town.

vote: WLC

[Kairyuu]

@VP: Oh well on the DDD situation. It was unfortunate, but the momentum is still on our side.

Also, I don't think that the second sibling is told of the fact that they are linked. The one game I saw a sibling in previously was set up that way.

Finally, we are not in lylo as far as I know (assuming 3 person scumgroup), so if the scum come in and quicklynch WLC (assuming he is not scum) then they will be revealing themselves just to get lynched D4 and D5. Plus, if you think he's scum then why would you hesitate?

[Kairyuu]

Everyone should go back and read Shinnen's original post on the matter. The mod commented.

[Kairyuu]

@Empking: Yes. The fact that you are debating the whole 'possible doc protect' scenario tells me that people didn't read the mod's comment. If there was another sibling dead then they would have been revealed as such in addition to any other role they had.

That comment was mostly directed towards Grimmy though.

[Kairyuu]

@everyone on the Jester thing: Generally, a mod will consider the Jester winning to be a separate thing than the town/scum winning, meaning that while DDD has won, either remaining faction still has the ability to be declared the 'winner.' If it were not so then it would really be a disincentive towards continuing. I dunno about you guys, but given a choice between joining a new game and competing for second place I would join a new one.

Now quit complaining about D2 and move on already.

@people still on this "Shanba may have been an odd day Jester": Did I not say to read Shinnen's post and the mod's comment?

SP said that the full role name would be revealed on death. Since Shanba came up as "Sibling" instead of "Odd Day Jester" and DDD came up as "Odd Day Jester" and not "Odd Day Jester/Sibling" it is obvious that this connection

does not exist

.

[Kairyuu]

Dunno. Depends on whether or not said 2nd sibling is aware of being a sibling or not. If yes, it doesn't really matter what they do. If no, then this line of conversation is pointless. I'm leaning towards the second. Here's why:

-If the sibling pair is the way Grimmy/mikeburnfire advertise it, then the other sibling is scum, but scum who will suicide tonight, meaning that it doesn't really matter what we do with them today, because it will be taken care of for us.

-If the sibling pair is the way I know it from Neopolitan mafia (a recent mini normal I was not in but read) then it functions as an auto bodyguard, and the second sibling won't even know of the existance of the first until said first one dies. In this scenerio, there is no reason to be having this conversation in the first place, because it will lead nowhere.

[Kairyuu]

@Grimmy:

Care to share what info you found?

Nope. Mod said not to talk about it.

someone else may have satisfied thier win condition (or part of it) last night by finding Shanba and making her leave. She wasnt killed, but has been removed from the game. This is what was fueling my questions about a Night Kill.

So let me get this straight. You think that because the kill flavor was different some other role fulfilled its win con? Why would the mod not tell us and that player not leave the game if that was true? This assumption makes no sense.

[Kairyuu]

@Grimmy:

I dont beleive that you have secret info.

. . . are you serious? The mod said,

in thread

, that we were not allowed to talk about a specific subject anymore. The reason I think Nocmen is town now is

because of that topic

. Therefore, I cannot reveal the information without risking a modkill. Get it?

also, in the desciption it says "he found me, i have to leave" or somethign of the sort, which made me question the difference between a kill and someone else "finding" shanba last night and making her leave the game (possible that the sibling found her, which made her "lose")

Another one out of left field. Shanba is in the same place as all the other deaths. If there was something special about it, I think that he would be in a different area. Also, Shanba is described as a 'Townie Neighbor,' which means he has not lost, because he wins with the town.

@Shinnen:

Right now, I don't have much on anyone, except the small issue with Nocmen's slip and Emp. Regarding this last one... WHY THE HELL DO YOU THINK A JESTER LYNCH IS GOOD???? What would have been if the game ended with DDD's win? Really, you're more of a hinderance (sp?) to the town than a help, Emp! Vote: Emp

Emp has 18 posts in the game. Most of them are single-phrased, with no content whatsoever. He never does anything to back up his claims, nor he cares for that. He's clearly not helpful to the town, hell, he's clearly ANTI-town. We're at a point in the game where the remaining players need to be useful, and Emp clearly isn't. Going further in days with Emp would only makes things harder for us. His useless posts won't help us in a future, as they haven't, and he will only be a bad distraction for town.

Point one: Empking does this all the time. He would be doing it as any alignment just because he can.

Point two: Anti-town =/= scummy. You are advocating policy lynching Empking on DAY 3!, when we are 1 day away from LyLo if we're wrong. I, for one, am not willing to take that risk at this point. maybe D1 or D2, but not when it could put us in lylo.

However, VP makes a good point that you probably didn't have the presence of mind to bus Chief if you were scum, so I think you likely town.

@Emp:

Just to make it clear to everyone, Shin thinks I'm town but dislikes me so is trying to get me lynched via an absurd and hypocritical case.

You may have a point, but you are not all that useful either (though, admittedly, this is the first game I've seen you make decent sense in most cases).

@VP Baltar:

However, given the theory that we might have a scum suicide tonight, policy lynching Emp in this case may be useful. One thing I really didn't like was the way he came in yesterday and effectively cut all discussion short by voting DDD. I think if the town could have talked a bit more, we might have figured out what was going on.

I would much rather try to lynch scum today, and then have tonight be the Night that ends the game in our favor.

RE: Emp vs. VP: I think you two are just splitting hairs. Personally, I like fast lynches, and was not disappointed that DDD was lynched that quickly. It moved the game along and got rid of our friendly neighborhood Jester before he could try to be a lylo mislynch.

[Kairyuu]

@Emp:

Have we been in a game together where I've been town before?

Yup. Choose Carefully. You ignored me completely the whole time. It made me sad.

Also, wanna vote WLC? He's scum.

@WLC:

Because his stance on DDD, and how it wasn't bad.

So you consider it a scumtell? If yes, why aren't you attacking Empking for the same thing, considering he actually advocated a Jester lynch.
If no, why are you bringing it up as a point against me. Consistancy is lacking here either way.

Also, he starts mentioning LyLo left and right now, which I kinda feel is used to scare townies.

I think of everything in terms of mislynches until Lylo. I feel that wasting one lynch on a townie (or Jester, in this case) is not terrible, but a second mislynch in a 3 scum game brings us straight to lylo, where the town gets paranoid and the scum have the most power. I would prefer not to policy lynch when being wrong puts us in that position unless one of our many theories is correct.

And he starts day 3 right of the bat with a vote on me, where before he didn't mention any real arguments.

Your point? I liked the case against you D2, but was focusing on Nocmen/DDD, and I don't have anything much to add, so I voted without adding anything.

It felt a bit he hoped that together with VP's he could get the ball rolling against me.

I still hope to. Got a problem with that, scum?

@VP Baltar:

Considering we have no idea how many scum are in this game it is a bit hard to speculate whether we would be in lylo or not tomorrow...of course, I guess it's better to just assume that.

1. This is a Mini, which means we have either 2 or 3 scum (otherwise we would have a very small chance of winning).

2. This is not a Mountainous or Mostly Mountainous setup (given that we have already had 2 town power role deaths) so putting in only 2 scum would be a bad move and put the scum at a serious disadvantage, regardless of the roles they have (and given that Chief was only a 'Puppeteer' it is safe to assume that she was a goon, which would mean that a 2 person scum team would have a maximum of 1 power role between them).

3. Therefore, it is only logical to assume three scum, which means two left, and one more mislynch before we hit lylo.

Simple, eh?

[Kairyuu]

At this point VP, I would not really advocate a massclaim for a few reasons:

1. We have the sibling situation in the works for tonight, and therefore may not even need the massclaim.

2. Scum gain a big advantage through a massclaim if they can fakeclaim successfully (See Mini Theme 658: Facedown and Thirsty Mafia, where the only one of my scumgroup to be suspected helped us to a perfect win through massclaim).

I don't like massclaiming unless there is gamebreaking potential. Otherwise, it just points out who the scum should kill.

[Kairyuu]

@VP:

I suppose, Kairyuu. At this point though I kind of feel like if anyone has any information that is going to lead us directly to scum it might be best not to risk having them die over night and us never find out. The tide is in town's favor and I would prefer to improve that lead if we could.

This is, of course, absolutely true. If there is a town power role with some sort of guilty investigation/successful action outing scum or confirming town then they should definitely claim. The full massclaim I am against though.

@Shinnen:

Wait, if we are making assumptions, there's a chance a mafia member will suicide tonight, so we wouldn't reach lylo tomorrow in case we mislynch.

And, just regarding lylo, how many of you would want to be in a lylo situation with Emp (assuming he's town)? My point is, Emp will only be a hinderance on the following days, regarding his alignment. Why? If he's scum, well, duh. But if he's town, then the problem arrives because of his anti-town playstyle (though, I admit that he's playing somewhat different this time, so I'm thinking in dropping this idea, but not yet. He hasn't proven me otherwise yet that he's a capable player.)

Bolded: Yes we would. We are currently in a 5-2 situation. If we mislynch, a townie dies, and a scum suicides, we will be left with a 3-1 lylo, which still sucks, because in that situation a no lynch is the best play statistically to improve our odds.

He's been surprisingly pro-town this game in my opinion. I dunno if he's just improving or if he's actually putting effort in now, but I like the change.

Also, I agree with a mass-claim. And I find it odd that Karyuu don't want one...

Been over this already. Massclaim without game break makes Kairyuu worry. Unless we have a way to confirm the two remaining scum as such, or confirm enough townies that the scum can't escape anymore, we should not be giving them any more info about our power roles than they already have.

Big Fat Edit

:

I typed that little post up, and then I started thinking about the math. We have 7 players. One is practically confirmed, another is pretty much above suspicion as well based on D1 play, and all townies know themselves to be town. That leaves each of us with 3 confirmed townies out of 7, with 2 scum. If we can manage a single added confirmed townie (2 more would be the optimal 100% win) then we can break the game.

So yeah, looking at the numbers, I like the idea of a massclaim now, because we may be able to pull this off.

@VP, Shinnen, and Noc: As the closest thing to confirmed townies we have, what sort of massclaim should we go about doing. I'm agreeable to anything (though popcorn with WLC to start would be my preference).

[Kairyuu]

@VP:

EBWOP: I'm pretty sure that I can back my towniness if that makes you feel better Kairyuu. I agree that WLC should be the first to claim. Popcorn works for me as well.

Heh. The massclaim suggestion was plenty to convince me, but if you can push it beyond doubt (as I'm reasonably sure I can as well) then we are 100% guarenteed a win, due to having 4 confirmed townies, 1 unconfirmed townie, and 2 unconfirmed scum, with 1 available mislynch just in case we get one wrong.

@Shinnen: If both VP and I can back our towniness, then it doesn't matter who we lynch, as long as it is one of those three, because 2 will definitely be scum, and we have the mislynch available to guess wrong once (again, assuming we can confirm VP and myself.

@all: Here's what I think. Since WLC said that he's V/LA until Monday/Tuesday, and Grimmy is V/LA on weekends, we may as well start with Empking, and then get to me, VP, and Shinnen while we wait for those two to come back. I'm reasonably certain that it's those two who are the scum anyway, so isolating them at the end shouldn't hurt overly much.

Any objections?

[Kairyuu]

I'm good with that. Also, I can prove my claim without having to wait for Night or give any previously used actions (mostly because I haven't used my power yet techincally).

[Kairyuu]

Heh. Why is it that I always get the flavors that contradict the mod (this is the second time)?

I'm up, so here goes:

I'm the Carnival Owner, which confuses me because the flavor at the start of the game is written from "my" perspective. Meh, last time something like this happened I ended up being the building that everyone in the game was trapped in (I was McDonalds in Facedown and Thirsty Mafia, and we were all trapped inside a McDonalds).

Essentially, the fact that the people who go to the Pupeteer's show come out all brainwashed bothers me, so I want to put a stop to it because it's hurting business. Since I have a really loud voice, I'm a double voter, with my second vote PMed to the mod whenever I want.

A few things about my role.

1. Given that the second vote is secret, it has a high potential for sowing confusion. Therefore, I have not actually used my second vote yet this game.

2. The power of this role in a lylo situation caused me to not play at my usual level. I've held back quite a bit until recently because I wanted to avoid the NK so I could be around when my vote had more influence.

3. I will be placing a vote on Grimmy to prove my claim. The next votecount should reflect that (I'm picking Grimmy because I feel like it).

@VP: Go ahead. You're up.

[Kairyuu]

As far as I know. I haven't used it yet, so I'm not 100% sure that it won't come with my name attatched. My assumption is that it won't though.

[Kairyuu]

@Emp: Depends on the type of lylo. In a 3 player lylo with a confirmed townie it allows me to lynch the scum without worrying about convincing anyone. Without the confirmed townie, it puts the game in my hands as if it were me that was confirmed, since I can cause the lynch myself. If it's a larger lylo, like a 5 player one, it's not quite as useful, but it still puts quite a bit of power in my hands bacause i control 2 of the three votes needed to lynch.

Overall, I'd say 8 of 10.

Also, when have you ever seen doublevoting be a power given to non-town (and Wheel of Time doesn't count, because VanDamien had the ability to stay town aligned, and when we got him lynched he still was)?

[Kairyuu]

@Emp:

The mafia in WoT had it as a one-shot power

Yes. One shot, and it affected the number of votes to lynch, rendering it useless in lylo. Mine does not.

@VP:

I'm not sure if that helps your towniness at all, as Emp said. You could very well be a double voter for the Puppeteers.

A scum doublevoter is way to powerful in my opinion. It throws the game totally out of balance if the vote does not change the to-lynch count, which mine does not. For example, a lylo situation becomes an instant scum win, because they control enough votes to cause a lynch on their own. Doublevoting scum just cannot be balanced out.

I could also see you being the Joker or something.

DDD was the Joker. Read post 333.

It will however prove that you have a powerrole, though I would have to say that I'm a more than a bit wary of taking a chance like that in lylo.

If the scum leave me alive in lylo, not only will I be extremely surprised (I expect to be the kill tonight now, hence my hesitation towards the massclaim initially), It will also screw them over completely by giving me almost 100% control of the lynch.

Before I claim I want to make sure that everyone wants me to go before WLC.

Go for it. The order doesn't actually make much of a difference anyway. I'd say whichever one of you posts next should claim in that post, and both of you should stop stalling.

oh, and are you saying that your power can be used multiple times?

Yup. It has no limit, and no restrictions on it. Quite a fun power. I kinda regret not using it before now.

@WLC:

redirect a vote

That would imply that there will be a vote unaccounted for on the votecount due to it not being where it was put. That one is easilt disprovable once the votecount is up.

buy a vote

Same as above. If everyone appears on the votecount as having a vote, then my second vote can belong to no one but me.

an extra vote for Mafia, although that's unlikely like he said

See above for why that would be foolish.

Also, the first two roles: redirector and one of the varients of politician, are generally considered pro-town roles from my experience. Why would having one of those roles make me scum (also, if I had them, why would I lie about it).

[Kairyuu]

So you've claimed vanilla essentially? But with a breadcrumb? Scum can do that too ya know. I believe your claim, but it doesn't confirm you, since the possibility exists that you are lying and set up the fakeclaim early on.

OK. So here's what we have thus far:

VP Baltar: Waffle vendor (vanilla)
Nocmen: Popcorn vendor (vanilla?)
Empking: Reporter (tracker)
Kairyuu: Carnival Owner (doublevoter)
Shinnen: No claim yet
WLC: No claim yet
Grimmy: No claim yet

Shinnen or WLC, whichever of you posts next should include a claim.

Also, I'm leaning heavily towards (double)voting Empking right now,because I doubt we would have 2 trackers (or at least, 2 pro-town trackers) in a Mini, bastard-ish or not. Plus, the flavor doesn't fit.

[Kairyuu]

Oh yeah, question for you VP: You expressed the possibility that I was a scum doublevoter, but previous to my claim you had me down as 'likely town.' Has that opinion changed, or were you just expressing the belief that I am not 100% confirmed.

[Kairyuu]

@Emp: You claimed a role that determines if someone uses an action at Night. That's almost exactly what a tracker is, except that it doesn't show the target. Plus, you slipped up and said that Shanba, who we know had no powers, used one N2. While this can be argued, because the kill flavor was "left," you then said that he didn't leave his house. Either way, you screwed up your claim, and are very likely scum because of it.

[Kairyuu]

@WLC, Shinnen, and Grimmy: Hurry up and claim so we can lynch Empking already.

unvote

and

vote: Empking

. Your opinions on the matter don't really worry me, scum.

[Kairyuu]

Because vanilla townies usually have similar flavor, in keeping with the fact that they are the same role, whereas town having two of essentially the same investigative roles is highly unlikely, especially given the meta that the "watcher/ tracker" pair is prevalent. If we have another invesitgative role I would expect it to be a watcher or something similar.

[Kairyuu]

And there it is. Grimmy has one vote, and all of the other votes are accounted for. I have proven myself to be a doublevoter. I'm just gonna leave the vote there until the claims are done, at which point I will vote Emp.

[Kairyuu]

@Emp: Do 3 votes make a lynch? I'm just declaring that it will be there, so that the next person to vote knows that they will be the hammer.

[Kairyuu]

@Emp: Do 3 votes make a lynch? I'm just declaring that it will be there, so that the next person to vote knows that they will be the hammer.

No but it means we only get three players instead of four.

So? What does that change?

@all: Given the interactions centering upon Emp, here's my hypothesis. If Emp flips scum (likely), then Shinnen and WLC are confirmed town beyond a doubt, which leaves Grimmy to be our last remaining scum.

If he is town, then all of that goes out the window of course, and WLC and Grimmy are practically confirmed to be the last two.

[Kairyuu]

@WLC:

What I find strange about your double vote is that you can spread it over two different persons. You just have a vote you can use through pm's that you can switch at any time, and use any number of times during a day?

That's pretty much it. I'm a slightly modified version of a double voter.

Is there a cost/restriction involved?

Nope.

[Kairyuu]

@WLC:

I really don't like the way Kairyuu and you are teaming up.

When I have a decent town read on someone (or even when I just want to get something done and one of my suspects wants it done too) I tend to focus on working with that player. It gets things done faster and more effectively than fighting for every inch. Examples include:

Newbie 661, where I worked with Save the Dragons most of D1 (he died N1 and then we broke the game right from the off D2).

Mini Normal 682: C9++, where, once I was confirmed town, I tended to go with the majority rather than my own suspicions for the sake of progress (and then I broke the game D3 or 4, so it was all good).

Mini Normal (dunno the number): El Puma, where D2 (I replaced in in time to hammer D1) I worked with Panzerjaeger to get vaquero, the scum RB lynched, and then got killed by the SK that Night.

Newbie 750: Myself, Flame, and Albert B. Rampage pretty much just teamed up and wiped the scum out D1 and D2 (though N1 Albert died and Serplat joined our 'team' D2).

There's probably more, but those are the ones that came to mind.

And Kairyuu, just for confirmation that there aren't any restrictions on your double vote, can you put the vote on another player that has 0 votes at the moment (until the next vote count)?

Sure thing. There will be a vote on Nocmen in the next votecount.

I've fought in the American War of 1812, and in the Napoleon wars.

Umm. Those wars happened practically concurrently. How were you in two places at once? It is highly unlikely that the British would take troops away from fighting the French, their main opponent, and send them to fight the 'upstart Americans.' Plus, the two wars were on different fields of battle. The War of 1812 was almost entirely a naval war, while the British naval superiority kept the French confined to a land war. The history doesn't make much sense here.

[Kairyuu]

Hmm. I've only been scum twice, so those are easy enough:

Mini Theme 658: Facedown and Thirsty Mafia. I was the 'godfather.' That was the game I referenced when I said my role flavor didn't make sense with the mod's flavor. The only similarity I can think of between this game and that one was that I was against a massclaim, but for a different reason (I was scum with no safeclaim or fakeclaim prepared, compared to having a power role with 99% certainty that I will die the Night after I claim it).

Mini Theme (number eludes my memory): Wheel of Time Mafia: Another one where the scum had no individual powers, though this time we had a collective power bank that we could choose a single one-shot power from. This is the one Emp was my scumbuddy for, where we had a "Shadow Vote" as one of our choices.

[Kairyuu]

I do. I mentioned it somewhere above I believe.

[Kairyuu]

Alright. I think that it's safe to say that the food vendors are all vanilla townies, and are all cleared at this point. Since I also consider myself cleared (for obvious reasons), that leaves 2 scum out of three people. Let's analyze the two that have claimed:

1. Empking: Claimed reporter. Says that he is doing a fluff piece on the Carnival, which just came into town. There are many problems with just that part of the claim, as wikipedia tells me, because Karnival in the Rhineland began (specifically in Cologne and Duesseldorf) to be a

local

festival in 1823, 6 years before the Carnival we are supposed to be taking part in, so not only would the reporter (assuming the concept of a reporter was around in the early 1800s) would not be interested in something 6 years old that was merely a local festival. He may have been interested in the fighting that was breaking out, but that was not what Empking claimed. Also, the idea of "coming into town" cannot be true either, as in the early years of the Carnival, it was not a travelling show, but rather a community festival to precede Lent.

And then onto the role he actually claimed. Thus far, all of the roles revealed have been at least semi-standard (VT, doublevoter, vig, tracker, sibling), but Emp claimed a role that I, for one, have never heard of, and sounds waaay too similar to ortolan's role to be true. Plus, the methodology of the role doesn't work either. You claim to be a reporter, but you are going to people's houses in the middle of the night to see if they are home? How does that have anything to do with the way a reporter funtions logically?

Looking at everything involved in Empking's claim, and even ignoring the slip up, it is very obvious that his claim is faked.

2. WLC: Claimed one shot vig. Oddly enough, this is the exact fakeclaim used by Mokina, one of my scumbuddies, in Facedown and Thirsty, so I'm wary right off the bat because of that. Also, the historical implausibility I already mentioned before, and while it

could

serve to counteract the Jester role, it is highly unlikely that something like that would happen.

Now let's get into balance issues. I'll start by saying that I like one shot vigs in Minis. They are great balancers for the town to have in a 12 person game, because otherwise, barring some other killing role or a kill prevention of some sort (be it No Lynch, doc protect, roleblock, etc), the town will be left in an unfavorable lylo position (assuming they don't win before lylo) of either 5-3, 4-2, or 3-1, which provokes a No Lynch, thereby sacrificing the most pro-town player right before it matters the most. The one shot vig counteracts this by giving the town a single kill, that, even if it doesn't hit scum, makes the lylo situation more numerically favorable to the town. This game counteracts this problem in a different way however. By lowering the player count by one, the need for a one shot vig is completely eliminated, as now, unless it hits scum with its single shot, it damages the town severely in a two-fold manner; both by removing an available mislynch before lylo, and by putting the town into that exact unfavorable lylo situation that the role is put in to avoid. Therefore, balance issues imply strongly that if there was a vig (which there shouldn't be in the first place), that it would be of the regular variety.

Given all of that, I am reluctant to believe your claim WLC. However, I do not want you to attempt to prove it, as, if Empking is not scum, and you do not hit scum with your shot (assuming you are telling the truth), then we autolose instead of going into lylo. For all intents and purposes, your role should be treated as a vanilla townie if you are town.

[Kairyuu]

Well, considering that he has 2 votes on him now, and another 3 (my second, Nocmen, and VP) that will be racing to get to him first once the claims are over and we have determined that we can end the Day, he's gonna die today, no two ways about it.

@all: I claim the hammer, to prove another possible restriction that I just thought of (not being able to hammer with my hidden vote) does not apply.

[Kairyuu]

@Grimmy: The hell kinda claim is that? Where does a Prostitute fit in with a Carnival theme?

Also, Im keeping my vote where it is. I have major doubts about Kari's claim. While he has proved to be a double voter, It seems to me to be an ability more attuned to a puppeteer than a carnival owner.

I want you to explain, in detail, why a double vote would be a scum power. Also, I want you to refute each point I have made on the matter. Until then, your assertions are worthless.

The reason I went after him in the beginning of the day was that I chose him as my target for role blocknig last night, which is also why I made a big deal of Shanba "leaving" rather than benig killed.

That means absolutely nothing. In Facedown and Thirsty Mafia, we could submit any sort of kill method we wanted, and in most theme games each scum role has a different kill flavor.

Also, if I were scum, then it is much more likely that I would

not[/b] be the one to submit the kill, on the off chance that it could be traced back to me in some way (I can link you to the Wheel of Time Mafia quicktopic where I was concerned about kill tracing if you'd like), since then I would be an extremely powerful scum power role, and it would be of utmost importance for me to survive to endgame.

does not expect to live to see day 3 now that he has claimed (im a likely target for a NK unless I RB the right person)

Because yeah, a roleblocker is a much more likely target than a double voter when we have a chance of going into lylo.

Who else do you think is scum, so I can RB them tonight to try to prevent a NK?

I am 99% certain that the remaining two scum are contained within this list:

Empking
Grimmy
WLC

If Empking flips scum, you should roleblock WLC, and if there is no kill, then it is very likely that he is the last remaining scum. If Emp isn't scum, then use your discretion.

@VP and Nocmen: Only one of you should vote for Empking once we are ready, because I am going to use my hidden vote to prove I can hammer with it.

Also, if I am alive tomorrow, I will be placing my vote on someone at the start of the Day (who it is depends on Night results and lynch results) to prove that the hidden vote is not one-shot.

[Kairyuu]

@WLC:

I'm also a bit wary of Kairyuu desperately wanting to be the one to hammer. He already fulfilled my extra request for a proof. It almost feels like Kairyuu has some sort of win condition that depends on a hammer.

Fist off, I'm not desperate. If you think I shouldn't hammer, then that's fine with me. I was under the impression that you wanted as much proof of lack of restriction as possible.

Also, and at the risk of sounding cliche after DDD, why, if I had this secret vote all game, and never used it, didn't I hammer D1 or D2 when I had the perfect opportunities?

I think you should block Kairyuu if Emp flips town.

Sure, he should block the person who has proved himself to be a power role that functions during the Day, and therefore can't be roleblocked (and if I

can

be roleblocked then Grimmy is lying about yesterdays target). If I was scum, and Emp was town, then there would be no reason for me to make the kill tonight, since I would know I would be the target of the roleblock. This idea does not make logical sense.

@Grimmy: If Emp flips town, use your discretion. If we direct the block then the scum can evade it. If Emp flips scum, block WLC, as he seems to be getting a bit jumpy about being the block target.

[Kairyuu]

There's no hammer yet. We haven't seen the votecount that you were waiting for WLC. Should I hammer, or should I keep my vote where it is and let VP hammer so that my vote shows up on Nocmen when the Day ends? I'll leave it up to you.

[Kairyuu]

Alrighty then. I PMed the mod about my vote not moving, and also hammered in the PM, so the Day should be ending next time SP checks his inbox.

So, Empking. Were you scum?

[Kairyuu]

Very Nice! Looks like we only had to contend with two scum instead of three. Kind of odd, but it works.

-dances-

As a sidenote, I lied slightly in my claim. I tried to hammer DDD D1 when he got to L-1, but someone unvoted first. Also, I asked the mod to have me autohammer Chief when she reached L-1, but DDD got his vote in before the mod checked the thread, so that failed too.

Oh well, we still won!

[Kairyuu]

I think that SP did a great job modding, and enjoyed the game immensely.

If I'm not overloaded and I don't decide to review the game, I will almost definitely be in the next one.

[Kairyuu]

@WLC: To be honest, I didn't find you hugely scummy, but when my main target from D1 and D2 ceased to be an option, I figured that I had a solid town read on VP, and just latched onto his case. The fact that you kept popping in only when you were questioned didn't help though, since all three times I've seen players like that before this game they have been scum. Also, the hesitance to allow Grimmy to block you when shooting someone was a statistically poor move anyway was somewhat disconcerting.

@VP:

I'm glad Kairyuu didn't talk the town out of mass claim, that would have jacked us up.

We didn't break the game, but we came close enough to zero in on the last scum, so I don't regret the massclaim one bit (although obviously my points in-game about them were honestly given).

@ortolan:

what does BM mean?

I believe he means Bastard Modding.

[Kairyuu]

@WLC:

Luckily the game ended, because I don't know if I'd have used my Vig-shot this night. I was really thinking of using it on either Nocmen or Kairyuu.

That makes me sad, and would have ended the game if there were 3 scum.

@all: I just realized something, this is the first Non-newbie game I've been in where I wasn't NKed before endgame (I've never been lynched as town, and never lost a game I made it to endgame in).