Mafia 105 - Caught in the Crossfire (Game Over)

[Pads]

/confirm

[Pads]

vote: SpyreX

for enslaving the Spathi.

[Pads]

unvote: SpyreX

Alright, that wagon was fun, but we have plenty of other leads now, and I see no reason good enough to stay on it (it was my random vote anyway). That's not to say I think SpyreX has been particularly pro-town. His responses have had components of both self righteous bristling (town) and dismissive, redirecting (scum).

Personally, I think he needs to be taken out back and hosed down, and then brought back to the game. In other words, I'd like to see what he's like and how he participates without the eyes of the town bearing down upon him.

I am enjoying Crypto's pressure on Maemuki, not so much for any specific point that he's making in his case, but more for the reactions that we're seeing. Maemuki was quite upset over that one vote in a twenty five player game. When Crypto first laid the vote down, it was like Maemuki's game slammed on the brakes, ceased to scum hunt entirely, and devoted all attention to figuring out why 1 person had 1 contentless vote on him. The flailing and floundering posts that follow are a sight to behold. I don't think I've ever seen a

townie

get so ruffled by a vote.

CSL. What can be said? To my horror, he's growing on me.

Infinis: Your post is reasonable, and I think I'm going to have "Meta is Fail" tattooed on my face, but the disapproving father tone aside, do you have any insight for us? CSL, Maemuki, SpyreX, ConfidAnon... any opinions on any of these folks?

Speaking of which. ConfidAnon looks terrible. Ignoring points made against him, dismissive of those points he does acknowledge. His defense for the attacks sent his way are that the attacks lead into a circular defense (i.e. I'm town!, No you're not!, Yes I am!, etc..).

But the reality is that he was given the opportunity to elaborate on his SpyreX vote and defend it, but instead, he let it slide. It was the perfect opportunity to talk about the person he supposedly felt was the most scummy, and he let it go sailing by. How many townies out there dislike talking about the person they find the most scummy and avoid opportunities to do so?


I'm probably running out of room here, so..

I like Pops, Roflcopter, and that talking golden retriever. I am contented with Sigma and RedCoyote. I am discontented with RayFrost and hiphop. I dislike Charter and VI, especially Post 213. But that's all for another time.

vote: ConfidAnon

[Pads]

Infinis and Pads have one more post to redeem themselves.

I predict a failing grade.

Here's why I don't like Post 213

Roflcopter had read Maemuki as town. VI agreed. Maemuki asked why. 213 is VI's response.

You're playing transparently in asking questions and demanding answers from people - digging up the information that the RVS frankly doesn't provide.

Alright, VI feels that asking questions and demanding answers is something that townies do, so let's run with that. What happens next?

I has a question though.

Oh, crap, right! VI just said asking questions was a townie thing to do, so he better ask a question.

You've argued both for (174) and against (186) people joining the wagon. Just skimming by I didn't see where you mentioned the result of reading through SpyreX's posts - just that people didn't give what you considered good reasons to vote SpyreX. So what was your individual read on SpyreX?

A mouthful. Let's break it down.

You've argued both for (174)

VI is saying that Maemuki has argued for people joining the wagon in Post 174. In 172, Maemuki asked CSL what he thought about the SpyreX wagon, and if he would join it. Here are 173 and 174 between CSL and Maemuki.

There's alot of people on it, and I do not support an early lynch. No, I will not join it, because I refuse to feed the fire of an early lynch.

Even if he's at, like, L-6?

And what do you think about SpyreX?

She's asking for clarification on CSL's apparent dislike of early lynches, not arguing in favor of people joining SpyreX's wagon. Where did VI get that from?

and against (186) people joining the wagon. Just skimming by I didn't see where you mentioned the result of reading through SpyreX's posts - just that people didn't give what you considered good reasons to vote SpyreX.

Here he is saying that in Post 186 Maemuki is arguing against people joining the wagon.

Here's Post 186

(Quote excluded to save room)

Yup, she clearly argues against the people joining the wagon. But she also clearly states that she doesn't see SpyreX's actions as scummy. Plain as day, in the post that VI referred to, is the answer to the question that he's about to ask.

So what was your individual read on SpyreX?

Despite having already given the answer, Maemuki was surprised in Post 218 to hear VI say she hadn't given her opinion of SypreX yet (does that sound like something a townie would forget?), and she posts an answer in Post 230

(Quote excluded to save room)

Ignoring the fact that SpyreX clearly stated his reason for voting, this whole post is extraordinarily wishy washy. I mean, really, 'he doesn't give any reasons on why we shouldn't lynch him'? Is there a weaker reason to suddenly suspect someone?

I bet if I or crypto (whom I like better since the VT flip of ConfidAnon) posted something like that, VI would be all over it. But he doesn't follow up at all. Notice there's no actual answer to VI's question.

Why was VI not concerned with getting an answer? How did VI not see, in a post he obviously read, the answer to the question he was about to ask?

The answer is that it was a fake question, designed to fit in with his own stated townie standard. It is quite reasonable to further conclude that the question is fake, because the person asking the question is also being false.

The response was not even an answer, and likely fake as well.

I believe both VI and Maemuki are scum. I think VI's scum buddy got a townie read from another townie(Rofl), and he wanted to echo it. He then made sure to put forth a display that was in alignment with the townie values he claimed to see in that buddy.

I encourage a VI or Maemuki wagon.

Mae has more votes (as of the top of page 17), so

vote: Maemuki

[Pads]

Maemuki and VI-free post.

Post 353 is a big pile of nothing that writes its author (hitogoroshi) a license to continue posting big piles of nothing. His following post Post 378 is better, but EP, if town, is an easy target for scum right now.

I'm not sure how many fences one could put together to build a house of fences but, yea. If you asked me what his read of me was after that paragraph I couldn't tell you. And there's an unvote.

I withdrew from your wagon and you don't have an inkling? Do you find it scummy that I have not committed you to either Column A or Column B?

My opinion of Hoopla is improving, in no small part from Post 414. He states an opinion that flies in the face of commonly accepted strategy, but defends it intelligently enough. Scum taking a stand like this is rare, in my experience.


@Ray Frost
I am discontent with your meaningful involvement/# of posts ratio. Also, I preferred your avatar with that hungry looking girl.


@Pops

I talked about SpyreX in Post 321 but I didn't come to a hard conclusion, to his irritance, I believe, judging by his quoted response. Allow me to elaborate.

Posts like Post 247 are a good example of what I'm talking about in my Post 321. Some of what Spyre has to say looks like the natural response of a townie being wagonned. Quotes like

I'd put more than even money on one of those three being scum. This wagon is too good to, even at this point, keep the fingers off of.

and

On the flipside Mam is solid, sigma (sans start) is feelin town, and CSL's 203 may, in fact, be so bizarre that it goes around the horn to zen.

for example. Both are near textbook examples of how townies like to get their opinions out there for everyone to see, in case they are lynched, and their opinions suddenly proven to be genuine.

But at the same time, there are some scummy elements to his posts.

3.) Captain Budja and the little wagonneers. Sure it'd be tech if I am scum but when this party seems to be the lemmings and Vi playing the pipes and that's A-OK well awesome.

This line does not seem natural. It's fearmongering (and redirecting); trying to establish the idea that an organized group of assailants is leading the wagon. Surely townSpyreX knows that scum are all but certain to not be this openly organized and in-step this early in the game.

But it's posts like Post 283 that swayed me the most to take my vote off of him. Scum or town it looks like he's been reduced to his base components, so to speak; his more primal reactions. He's not going to be of any actual aid to the town like that, and he's not going to give me a good enough read to call him scum posting in such a manner.

If I were prodded with a hot poker to choose scum or town, I would say town, frazzled by the pressure that was put on him.

[Pads]

Well okay, your stance is at least halfway understandable and I'm fine with your lifespan as long as you stop with the VI treatment. It's not witty and serves to help me like you less (not in terms of scumminess, but on a personal level).

I had no idea what you were talking about here until I saw the interchange with RayFrost and Pops later on. I also have no idea why typing VI instead of Vi would be witty, nor do I understand why it seems to have irritated you so much. Despite having obviously seen your name on the sides of your posts numerous times, it never consciously registered in my head that it was Vi and not VI.

I would never mistype anyone's name purposefully to insult them (or whatever you think I was doing) and it won't happen again. I am, however, going to stop just short of an apology since you reduced yourself to name calling. Twice (The second time at those 'jerks', Charter and Crypto).

She uses it to make fun of people who accidentally don't let go of the shift key. I think Pads is being more of a doosh than that.

So, that's the secret, eh? A typing trap? Alas, in my case it was just a simple misunderstanding. Though, for the record, I am unlikely to feel shame from an etiquette dispenser that calls people 'A$$hats', especially with those dollar signs staring at me.

In the meantime, I would like to do something else you'll find scummy--
Vote: Energetic Penguin (L-8)

Indeed. I burn through lurkers like I'm trying to keep warm in a snowstorm a few days out from LyLo, but Day 1 I find it a scummy way to appear town while denying the town information. We learn nothing from a dead Energetic Penguin, town or scum.

What are you suggesting that SpyreX should have done when you withdrew from his wagon?

Assuming most of the votes, not just mine, are withdrawn, I think the most pro-town thing for him to do was to lay low, without lurking, and let another wagon come to the forefront for town analysis. I also think that's pretty much what he did, although maybe not with that specific intent in mind.

don't like the fact that vi is slowly tiptoeing away from his professed town read on maemuki as more and more people get tricked into thinking she might be scum.

I can't tell if this bucket of fearmongering is an attack on me or if I am one of the poor, tricked people.

I also find the choice of words curious. You don't say 'thinking she's scum', but 'thinking she might be scum'. Is there truly no remaining chance of Maemuki being scum? Do you consider people who acknowledge some glimmer of a chance that Maemuki might be scum to be so poorly informed that only subtle manipulation born of a malevolent force could be responsible for their delusion?

Pads 454 actually gives a stance on me but good lord is it qualified.

It also provided a question. I am genuinely interested in your response.

This Day needs to end, so we can recompile.

Lynches I approve of:

Maemuki
Vi
Charter (I realize I haven't talked about this one yet)

Lynches I view less favorably, but would still go along with.

RayFrost
Hitogoroshi
Elvis_Knits (A flip from an earlier post, caused by her finding a contentless vote scummy, and the ensuing baseless attack)

Lynches that would be highly informative, but I don't expect to find scum

SpyreX
CSL


Thoughts on current wagons:
Energetic Penguin: Almost understandable based on his contributions, but looks like newbTown to me. Wasn't this the person that Zoraster had a seperate conversation with to establish that they were up to the challenge of a large game before confirming them? That Zoraster allowed him in lends credit to the alt theory.

Idiotking: I've only skim-read this one. I'm not inspired to join it at this time, but a more serious read is on my to-do list. Independent of the case against him, the EP, Infinis, and Crypto finger pointing strikes me as scum trying to find a new wagon that the town likes. If they're doing that, it may be an indication that one of their own is currently being wagonned.

[Pads]

The answer that you gave is so out of context (resupplied for your convenience) that it's useless.

I modified your question in an attempt to be able to give you the answer that I thought you wanted because the question didn't make any sense to me as it was written. The answer to your question as written is "What the heck are you talking about? I fail to see where I am suggesting he do anything."

We learn nothing from a dead Energetic Penguin, town or scum.

False

I'm all ears. Convince me. What do we learn from dead townEP? Dead scumEP?

[Pads]

Vote Count, Day 1

hiphop ( 0 )
Budja ( 1 ) SpyreX
charter ( 0 )
crypto ( 0 )
CSL ( 2 ) - RedCoyote sigma
elvis_knits ( 0 )
Energetic Penguin ( 4 ) hitogoroshi - popsofctown - hiphop - imaginality
hitogoroshi ( 0 )
Hoopla ( 0 )
Idiotking ( 2 ) - Hoopla - elvis_knits
imaginality ( 0 )
Infinis ( 3 ) roflcopter - charter - RayFrost
EtherealCookie ( 0 )
Maemuki ( 2 ) - Infinis - Pads
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Psychologic ( 0 )
RayFrost ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 1 ) Vi
roflcopter ( 0 )
sigma ( 1 ) - sotty7
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 1 ) - Budja
Vi ( 0 )
Unvote ( 7 ) - Idiotking - EtherealCookie - Psychologic - Maemuki - CSL - Energetic Penguin crypto
Total Votes ( 24 )

With 24 alive, 13 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is at December 1st, 11am EST

Pops, I don't see your philosophy as unreasonable, but it's not for me.

I take the position that establishing interconnectivity early is more important, and I find lynching the inactive early is detrimental to that goal. So, yes, you could say that I'm picking a target from the actives today. The mid game is where I beat the lurkers into activity or removal, and I'd definitely prefer to take a slightly scummier active player over a lurker into lynch or lose.

Furthermore, in a game like this, those that are 'inactive' may actually just be 'overwhelmed'.

@Sigma

That's a good catch. Going to go re-read him right now.

[Pads]

What are you suggesting that SpyreX should have done when you withdrew from his wagon?

What kind of opinion should SpyreX have had of you when you unvoted? (i.e. oh hey he unvoted; he must be Town) (Note: This should have been asked the other way - "What are you suggesting SpyreX should have seen your opinion as?")

Ah, that's much better. He should have seen it as undecided-leaning town.

Assuming E-Pengy maintains his current rate of not posting, and assuming he flips Town, the reasons for his lynch should be somewhat pale compared to numerous other people in the game. You would gain thirteen players with reasons for joining the wagon that you could sort out, probably with the categories of VIs and people who should know better.

*blink* *wiki's VI* Ah, that's what the issue was.

And that's all well and good, but we get that info from pretty much any lynch. I was looking for specific conclusions that you would be willing to come to given a scumEP or townEP result, based on the votes/interactions thus far.

[Pads]

If they're that scummy, the 'other mafia' doesn't need to waste their kill on them, content with the likely prospect of the town using one of their lynches to do the job.

And if there's a vig, I would be happier if he didn't shoot for the first few nights.

[Pads]

*smacks head*

Reading CSL, I feel like I'm looking into the abyss and it's looking back.

Post 331 is his read on ConfidAnon. Behold the maddening words!

Woah. Major scumpoints there.

Votes imaginality during RVS, then attacks me for making a townish statement, while looking scummy. Sure he changes his vote for SpyreX, but that vote change was the only thing even remotely townish that I have seen.

First of all, I snicker at 'He's scummy because he attacked me for making a townish statement'. Second of all, good lord, Confid's vote on SpyreX was a townish action? What the heck happened to:

No, I will not join it, because I refuse to feed the fire of an early lynch

Pop Quiz: Which came first, CSL's declaration that he would not join the early lynch or Confid laying the

eighth

vote on SpyreX?

Confid's vote came first. But when CSL gave his read of Confid, he said that this vote was townish, which is in complete contradiction to his previously stated aversion to quick lynches. Why? So he could waffle, of course, on both the SpyreX (he never said SpyreX wasn't scummy, just that it was too early) and Confid wagons.

Sigh, I feel like I'm shooting Old Yeller here, and I imagine that any game with townCSL is riddled with stuff like this, but I know that I'm not going to be able to make it through this game without stopping at some point to lynch him. And, of course, there's a reasonable chance that he's scum. I'll pack away my lead balloon for a while and throw my support behind a CSL lynch.

unvote: Maemuki

vote: CSL

[Pads]

pads, please wax philosophical for me on the subject of infinis, a player you are completely ignoring

Little piece of advice: your fake scum hunting will look better if it's based on facts. I inquisitioned Infinis here, he answered here, and I commented on the attempts to wagon him here.

As is obvious from the last link's content, I do not suspect him as scum. While I have not spent a lot of time talking about him, you might as well get used to that or just vote me now. 24 player game = me not going to write three paragraphs about everyone. I plan to use my time to write about scum. Town hunting is fine, but it's not what I focus on.

If you were actually scum hunting, and not just trying to incite a senseless wagon, you would have pointed out that I was completely ignoring Sotty, Psycho, Imaginality, and Budja - none of which I've said a single word about. (Town, Unable to read, slightly Town, and Town in case you were wondering.)

Pads is pretty much being useless. His top three suspects have a whopping two votes combined and he's not trying to convince anyone to vote his suspects.

You got me. Making cases and bringing scummy actions to light are just my way of cowering in the corner. Furthermore, since the scum aren't willing to join me in the lynching of their buddies, I am clearly wasting my time, and I should just jump on one of the mislynches that they're providing.

Shoo, scum. Townies are talking.


Some thoughts on CSL. No honest townie should have read him as town. No honest townie should have wanted to try to get a read off of those nonsensical, contradictory, borderline-insane posts. No honest townie should have wanted to leave him around even if he was town, for risk of him being an easy mislynch closer to end game when it actually matters, and thus no townie should have been all that reluctant to be on that wagon.

Assuming a single scum group, scum trying to look un-bloodthirsty would have stayed off, and that's about it. (Scum points for IK)

Now it changes if there's two scum groups, as each scum group might have assumed he was on the other scum team. In that case, they'd surely want to be on the wagon to get townie points for lynching a scum.

There's no conclusion to come to yet, but this is what I'll be thinking about if we prove two scum groups.

I like new Budja. Both he and Hoopla fail for attacking the 'lurkers' with nine posts after five days, but I say town for both of them.

The lifeless corpses of Maemuki, Vi, Elvis_Knits, and Charter all hanging from a tree would make for a nice wind chime set.

I'd find some way to live with myself if Ray_Frost, Roflcopter, or Hitogoroshi were the next lynched.

I can't decide if I want to think of SpyreX as scummier or more town for his suddenly cockier tone. With no wagon in his past, I'd say townier, hands down. But a scum may feel like he's 'beaten the rap'.

I feel like there should be more out of the last nine pages to talk about, but there's not. The latest Crypto wagon (is this the second or third one on him?) was clearly inflamed by the scum trying to be rid of him. He's been about the most pro-town player up to this point, as far as I'm concerned. And he's even more of a bull in a china shop than I am.

(+2 coolness points to the first person to say "Pads, you're not a bull in a china shop, you're more a ____ in a _____." *canned laughter*)

[Pads]

@ Hoopla.

After re-reading it, I think you're right. I thought you were rebuking the ones with low post counts, but you were actually saying that the actions of the high posters were causing the replacements. My apologies.


RayFrost, you are officially two points cooler, sir.

[Pads]

Pads please explain why roflcopter is scum for someone who hasn't read the whole game.

Actually, I like Roflcopter much better after his recent posts. Opinions and insight galore! Where was all that yesterday? Also, given that Imaginality was testing the waters for a Roflcopter wagon in Post 691 and I don't see myself voting for him today.

But, what you were probably asking is why did I think he was likely scum on Day 1. What I didn't like on Day 1 was the sitting back, letting other people dig and then responding to what they see. It was very back seat driverish. I didn't care for how he called for the death of crypto over and over again, and then voted him, and then.... went along with crypto's vote and case on E_K? I've been calling for Vi's lynching for almost all of the game. If I suddenly said "Okay, VI, I'll go along with your case" anyone who questioned me would be right to do so.

He also was early to call Mae town, who was one of the people I pegged for scum, and I saw little room for reading her as town.

I also didn't like his un-researched attack on me, sufficiently defeated in Post 888. It looked like he pulled it out of thin air.

All this combined is what earned my suspicion on Day 1.

Actually, Charter, roflcopter, Vi, sigma, Pads, and Sotty7 were all on both the Confid and CSL wagons. I get the feeling that at least half of these folks are scum, if not more.

I don't mind being suspected, and my actions reviewed, but when I read a line like "I get the feeling that at least half of these folks are scum, if not more" then I rest assured that whatever comes after it is going to be scum talking.

Really? A feeling that atleast half the people in subset A are scum? I cannot imagine such an intuition striking me. It reminds me of that line "I sense a plot to destroy the Jedi" - is the sensing of such a complex idea even possible? I don't think it is. Thus, I think this is just an excuse to start a case based on nothing. If you have a reason why you think atleast half of these are scum, please share it. But a feeling? C'mon now. This is scum throwing matches at a pile of wood, hoping one starts a fire.

Vote: Pads

Vig, shoot e_k plox

I asked you on Day 1 if you found my undecideness towards your alignment to be scummy. You never answered that I saw, but may I take your vote as a yes?

On the subject of the vig, I whole heartedly agree. We risk lynching too quickly and losing discussion time, or getting distracted and letting a scum slip away. A shot now will give us a fully day of discussion and voting to review.

I really don't like Pad's 888. I think part of it is that it read so similar to 619 - with the same stand-offish self defense and pretty damn similar lists. With the sheer insane pace of this game I'm inclined to think of certainty and consistency as somewhat scummy. Of course, most of what I don't like about that post is more subconscious than that, but apparently we're voting with our guts now, so vote: pads.

I suspect certain people of being scum, and then less than 48 hours later, I still suspect many of them. Thus, I am scum. I'm going to assume that no one mistakes this for real scum hunting. That I consistently pointed at Hito as scum yesterday surely has nothing to do with it. I also doubt this vote would be here unless SpyreX had dropped a far more reasoned vote (atleast, I think it's more reasoned) first, but that's neither here nor there.

I am going to vote, who I think is the second buddy, hoping the day vig is unlimited.
vote scotty imag doesn't have her name mentioned in iso 2, but he comes back later and starts calling her town, and saying that she is making really good points in iso 4,5, and 6. The only problem with this case is sotty doesn't mention imag. I'll let sotty tell us why.

I fail to see why Sotty's name not appearing in Imaginality's read would make Sotty a likely candidate for a buddy. Someone like Vi, who is very prominent, is an absence that is rather curious, but Sotty hasn't talked much at all. Also, that Imaginality was willing to openly support Sotty's points without provocation indicates a more likely chance of Sotty being town.

@Vi: We were discussing the value of a CSL lynch, information wise, yesterday. You assured me that it would be an informative lynch. I think if we have a single mafia, Idiotking is quite likely to be in it, as he objected far too much to a reasonable wagon (a double mafia scenario would leave little sense to stay off the wagon of such a scummy person, unless he was actually a town with a town read on CSL, which is a whole other questionable point). I'd like to hear what conclusions you'd be willing to draw from CSL's wagon and alignment flip.

I'm hoping we don't have to actually lynch E_K, but if we do, it shouldn't be a problem, as the scum are flocking to bus her, even if only by vocal support.

And for the record, I still disapprove of the vig shooting at night for the time being, if that's what is going on.

vote: Elvis_Knits

.

[Pads]

Where and when did you stop hating me and start suspecting elvis_knits? It's like you're saying "Okay, VI, I'll go along with your case". Especially considering the snipe you take at me when discussing Sotty7.

I'm afraid you misunderstand. I am attempting to continue our conversation from yesterday in which I implied that a CSL would be uninformative and you stated that such a thing was false. I then asked you what we could learn, and your reply was something that I found to be a generic bowl of nothing in particular that could easily apply to any lynch or wagon ever made. Therefore, as we are past a CSL lynch, I was giving you the opportunity to revisit your argument and tell me what we learned from that lynch.

Except that our conversation had actually been about Energetic Penguin, an important fact that I remembered incorrectly. So, I fail. You can disregard my question.

Take heart, though. I still have you on my scumlist (though no longer my top suspect), and I suspected Elvis for a good bit yesterday.

It's not about simply holding the same scum reads. It's about twice in quick succession making multi-tiered lists, and in addition having those lists be similar.

Perhaps, then, you'll share a laugh with me when SpyreX says he has no idea what my opinions on anything are, and Vi accuses me of suspecting E_K out of the blue on Day 2. The point being, that you are seeing one extreme and they are seeing the other. Perhaps the middle ground is the reality?

Scum are the ones who have their minds made up before the day starts, and to me the quick pair of lists strikes me as really scummy.

Actually my intention with those lists is to display where I am at the time that I make that post on certain individuals. In my naivety, I put them there to avoid attacks such as SpyreX's decree that he can find no stated opinions in my posts.

I see where you're coming from with all this, I really do. And it's not an unreasonable point except for the fact that I"m also being attacked for doing the opposite of what you're talking about: wagon jumping and switching opinions.

But here's my main issue. I attacked you several times yesterday, and you didn't say a word. You let it slide on by.

SpyreX? He traded some toothless conversation with me on Day 1, but that's about it.

Come Day 2, and you both make a beeline for me. That utterly

reeks

of scum making a plan of attack during the night phase.

So, you find switching opinions townlike and SpyreX finds it scummy? I'm sure this will give you both a lot to talk about. SpyreX joins you on my scumlist, as per the aforementioned reeking.

I missed the part where Sigma was scum if E_K was scum. I need a re-read there to make a call. Same goes for whatever hiphop is talking about, though I didn't like his Sotty vote post.

I guess I'm in trouble if Infinis or Energetic Penguin are scum, because I just don't see it. Shame on people voting Red Coyote at this point. He's far too interesting to risk losing at this point if he's town.

Limited Access during Thanksgiving Weekend

, but I should be able to pop in and do some reading. And a vote is forthcoming. I'd really like to vote Hitogoroshi, but the anti-Mae stuff is rather compelling.

[Pads]

Checking back in after the holiday weekend. I'll be posting something more substantial at some point today.

[Pads]

Well, an iso read on charter indicates that he was pretty much playing for the scum from the beginning, most likely under the assumption that he'd eventually be found. He got rid of folks that were likey the strong town players in his opinion, banking everything on being discovered by the scum. The natural reaction I had to this thought was that he probably advertised himself to someone who was looking for him and did not just leave it up to chance. The fact that he was picked up in just two (possibly one) night(s) of searching lends credit to this theory.

Unfortunatley, though, I can find no clear evidence of him doing this, but I wanted to throw it out there in case anyone sees something I missed.

Alright, where were we yesterday...

I mean, I don't know about you, but I certainty can't neatly categorize who I want lynched and even if I could, I certainty wouldn't to continually re-post my thoughts in a nice bundle and give the scum a big old "HEY - PICK A TOWNIE FROM THIS LIST AND EARN MY MISLYNCH" sign.

'Who I want lynched' will never be a black and white topic, but at any point if you ask me (and most other people, I believe) who I want lynched at that moment, I bet I can come up with a few names. Folks who wait around for 100% assuredness or 'irrefutable evidence' are newbs or scum. Townies aren't supposed to know. But they

are

supposed to have suspects and, when the time comes, they

are

supposed to be decisive.

As for the 'pick a townie' sign, since the alternative to that scenario is everybody keeping their opinions of who they suspect to themselves, or people making their opinions hard to review for those who are re-reading through posts trying to find where they stood at the time, I find both your implication, and your attempt to make my action look as bad as possible to be scummy.

Furthermore, this is fear-mongering. A townie having other townies on their scum list is the natural result of a game of mafia. Mislynches, also, are a natural result of a game of mafia. It's something to try and avoid, of course, but it's not something that I should fear to the point of inaction. Your comments imply that you feel that I should be so worried about providing scum with the names of townies I would be willing to mislynch that I should be evasive, and unclear about who I find scummy. What?! Thou art scum.

Scum are the ones who have their minds made up before the day starts, and to me the quick pair of lists strikes me as really scummy.

So, which is it? Do scum know what they're going to vote for at the beginning of the day, or do they jump on the mislynches that townies advertise in their posts?

The answer, of course, is that they can do either. But that realization defeats two of your three points against me. If scum are willing to jump on a mislynch provided by another townie, then sticking to your suspects is not a scum tell, it's a null tell. If scum focus on the folks they decided to mislynch the night before, then people who list their own suspects are not being anti-town for sharing their own opinions.

Your third point against me is your gut, and that is not something I care to try and defend against.

Again, I want to point out, that on Day 1, you had nothing to say to me when I attacked you. But on Day 2, after SpyreX threw a vote on me, you immediatley vocalized. You are shrinking away from conflict, you are attacking those who state their opinions (and by association, defending those who don't state their opinions), and you have but two votes in this whole game, both for highly dubious reasons.

Mine I've already covered, but for Hitogoroshi's earlier vote, I offer for the town to read these three posts.


Post 378

The last two sentences are amazing examples of scumspeak.


Post 388

Reminds me of Bill Clinton's impeachment testimony.


Post 460

After attacking EP for voting without adding something, he justifies his own vote by saying it doesn't need a case because EP's action was so bad.


That does not look like town talking to me, and I highly encourage all readers of this to join me in:

vote: hitogoroshi

Couple other notes. SpyreX goes on the back burner until hito flips. Hiphop hurt himself a lot yesterday, but there's a tinge of new player in the air. Going to re-read him before I cast a yea/nay to his wagon.

I assume we're all back from 'caught in the crossfire' land and we all accept that we have but one mafia. I said previously that Idiotking was likely scum if we had just one mafia, I need to look at that again, too.

[Pads]

I was front burner? Ever?

You were in the toaster.

...

Most of my suspicion of you is based on the idea that you were buddies with Hito. Is it all that strange that I want to see the flip of Hito, who I find far more scummy, before I attempt to start a wagon on you?

Those who read the post will see that it was clarifying on whether or not my vote on EP was a policy vote. Like Bill Clinton? What the hell does that even mean, in terms of alignment?

Because your post reads like slippery, slimy, scum slippily squirming away from any actual formal opinion. Your attack on EP said that it was for an action that was so bad that it didn't need a case. Then you implied that it was a policy lynch (actually you said meta-crusade against what EP did, but I think that reasonably translates to 'policy lynch', and so did Vi). When Vi asked you to clarify if it was a policy vote or not, your response:

Depends on what sense you mean. I do think that it's a very scummy and anti-town thing to say "voting x for reasons already mentioned" so it's not a policy thing in that sense. However, I suppose if someone showed something akin to 'That's what ep always does', that wouldn't sway me, and in that sense it is a policy lynch. I think it's either a scumtell or terrible play that should be punished.

dodges the responsibility of even accepting the definition of policy lynch. Despite the simple yes or no question, you never actually came out with a yes or no answer. Instead, you concluded with the equivalent of: If he wasn't scum, then yes it was a policy lynch.

It reminded me of Bill Clinton giving answers that depended on the definition of the word 'is'.

As far as alignment, it means that you're a scum who has somehow managed to fear monger himself into thinking that a perceived mistake of character will instantly out you as scum. Townies are wrong sometimes. It happens. But here you are clearly very worried about the possibility that EP will flip town that you give yourself a 'policy lynch' safety net.

Day 1 you never 'attacked' me; you put me on a list with no real reasoning whatsoever.

Post 353 is a big pile of nothing that writes its author (hitogoroshi) a license to continue posting big piles of nothing.

EP, if town, is an easy target for scum right now.

Not a huge, elaborate case, of course, but certainly not the nothing that you're portraying it as. And I don't find it scummy that you didn't immediatley respond to these comments, but I do find it scummy that the first time you chose to say something to me was in the shadow of someone else voting for me.

You don't want to be the point man because you don't want to take the blame for a mislynch. You are clearly more concerned with the town's opinion of you (and, thus, your own survival) than in figuring the game out.


After review of Idiotking, yeah, I'm good for that wagon, too. He made quite an effort of padding his landing while the CSL wagon was up for consideration, both on and off said wagon.

Hiphop's wagon, not so much.

His iso for the first day and a half or so is not good. Lots of asking other people's opinions, not a lot of personal opinions. Lots of attacks on the inactive, not a lot of generated insight. Lots of fascination with people breaking the word count limit, lots of one sentence posts, and lots of easy wagon jumping.

But here's what gives me pause. He has some reasonable points on Sotty (the E_K vote was highly suspicious), enough to make me plan to go re-read Sotty. And his later posts are opinion-laden. They're occassionally babbling and incoherent, he spends plenty of time discussing the game's setup (which I think is considered a scum tell by the general populace, but I don't find it to be a big deal), and he answers questions that aren't directed at him, but he says what he thinks.

It's a little strange, but the point is that his play is developing as the town gets more and more information. Looks town to me.

[Pads]

How bizarre.

You had an awkward over-concern for my opinion of you on Day 1. Again, today, even though I don't really want to focus on you, you seem to almost be throwing a tantrum that you're not on my 'front burner' or whatever.

But, just so we're clear, 'on the back burner' is a figure of speech meaning 'not the current focus'. The malicious extension of the metaphor to imply that there are but two burners, front and back, and thus that there are only two levels of focus, is entirely of your own doing.

No matter. Leave your vote on me. We'll figure this out before it's all over.

[Pads]

Short on time, so no wall of text today.


@Everyone

CSL was lynched very quickly. Maemuki was lynched very quickly. The scum were not shy about jumping on.

Hito's and IK's wagons have stalled.

A RayFrost wagon started on a whim and was very quick to gain energy.

The only scum wagon we've had move quickly at all was obvscum Elvis_Knits, and even she only had 1/4 of the game voting for her when she was vigged (or whatever).

I doubt the veterans of mafia need me to tell them that what we are likely looking at a scum engineered distraction in the RayFrost wagon, and it lends credit to the idea that both Hito and IK are scum.

Note that IK didn't have anything to say about RayFrost today until Shotty brought it up, and now he's digging in to a RayFrost wagon as hard as he can. Classic redirecting, no? Note that Hito joined, as well.

RayFrost's early play was far from spotless, but behavorially he's looking more like lazy, detatched town than lurking scum. Even if you don't agree with that read, there's nothing to justify his wagon over the others that are available to us at the moment. He's simply not the best wagon today, especially since he seems to have a PR to claim.

Policy lynching will be up for consideration tomorrow, but today we still have a good chance of getting scum with normal lynching standards.

*I owe a couple people answers to questions. I'll get them next time.

[Pads]

This is not true. I'd already said (just a FEW POSTS BEFORE, are you BLIND?!) that Ray was my top pick,

True enough. I looked through your posts looking for a mention of RayFrost, and you referred to him as Ray, which is probably why I missed it. Curious that you didn't have a vote down for your top pick, or anyone else.

This sort of analysis is dangerous. I have seen it before and it often results in someone being hesitant at joining the wagon of a caught scum.

Every lead is potentially a false trail, but I find mafia to be simpler more often than it's complicated, even if it takes a while to unwrap it all. Voting patterns and wagon speeds aren't to be disregarded.

Would you not agree that 'caught scum' wagons are usually much slower to build than 'townie who said something wrong' train, because it requires multiple, bickering townies to agree, rather than a smaller number of aligned scum to slip on the wagon? Assuming you do agree, then why regard the analysis as so instantly disposable?

Broken down to its simplest components it's "scum never bus" and that's simply not true.

No, it's not. It breaks down to "they haven't been bussing in this game". And since there's been very little analysis of either wagon, there's no reason for them to fear continuing to do the same thing.

While CSL and Maemuki did indeed grease the guillotine, that's just even more of a reason not to lynch RayFrost right now.

[Pads]

I didn't say "Doesn't it always happen this way?", I said 'usually'. And you responded with 'Sometimes', so I'm going to take that as your agreement.

I've got 25 cents on SpyreX being a Serial Killer.

[Pads]

Yes, I know. We're talking about inverses. Sometimes B can still exist with Usually A.

I said something usually happens. He said, it sometimes doesn't happen. But my original argument obviously allows for the occassional happening of it.

[Pads]

@ Xyl

Yes, I realize that you stated disagreement. But your subsequent explanation was in harmony, not disagreement, with my original
statement.

Quit screeching for Spyrex's blood Pads.

Actually, after some thought over the last few days, I have. SpyreX, despite his obsession with me, is one of the five or so people from this town that I would want to take into lynch or lose.

Democratizing the shot is different from a lynch in which way? Yes, I realize it would be two effective lynches between each night phases, but presumably we have some other PR's that benefit from the night phase as well.

Clearly, we can't keep RayFrost around for very long, but I'm intrigued by the prospect of keeping him around another day.

[Pads]

Charter ended up being the back up roleblocker. It's possible that we had a back up Vig that took over when Charter flipped to scum, and promptly shot him when he claimed a role that the back up Vig knew Charter didn't have.

That person wouldn't have had a kill until Charter flipped. Is there another unexplained kill?

I'll take a stab:

ConfidAnon- RayFrost

Hoopla - Mafia
Crypto - Charter
Imaginality - ???

Elvis_Knits - RayFrost

Sigma - Mafia
Vi - Charter

Infinis - RayFrost
Charter - New Vig?


So, we have two unexplained kills, or did I miss something? I don't think it could have been a new Vig back on Night 1, since Charter was still the vig at that point, as proven by his Vi kill on Day 2. That leans less towards a back up vig and more towards a 'every other day/night vig'.

That's a lot of killing power, which actually may indicate a less than normal number of scum. At any rate, we need to err on the side of caution for calculating number of days remaining.

[Pads]

Sar'nathed by Ur-quan. /cry

as proven by his Vi kill

'Proven' was too strong a word here.

[Pads]

Your next option to kill is tomorrow morning, right?

[Pads]

Scum sure are working hard to twist the play of roflcopter.

First of all, just because roflcopter talked about his opinion of an individual which unflinching certainty, didn't mean he had investigated that individual. For proof of this, you need only look at Day 1, when he didn't have any investigations, and he directly called for the lynch of several townies, including Infinis and Crypto. He also firmly put Charter on the town list.

Thus, the revelation of who he investigated must be determined from the idiosyncrasies of his behavior, more than his declared levels of certainty.

So, let's have at it.

Roflcopter's first night investigation was Elvis_Knits.

Roflcopter had virtually nothing to say about Elvis_Knits on Day 1, but there's evidence to indicate that Roflcopter had her picked out to be his first investigation. For instance:

charter, does elvis seem obviously town to you?

He wants to make sure to establish the relationship before he investigates.

On Day 2, he clearly indicates that he has received a scum result on Elvis_Knits.

elvis is scum. lynch her now please.

oh yeah, dayvigging elvis would actually be great. not only would it free us up to lynch more scumbags, it would free me from the onerous task of lynching someone i like so much.

vi jumping off the elvis bandwagon is also terrible

y'all can thank me later for totally blowing up elvis' spot.

In hindsight, that's clearly the cop, after a successful hunt/kill, taking credit. I'm a little amazed he wasn't killed Night 2.


Alright, Rofl's second night investigation is a little less obvious. But we can be reasonably sure of one thing, he knew his sanity at this point. He got a scum result on someone who flipped scum. He knows he's sane.

The first thought is that his investigation was Charter. But Rofl came off his wagon and believed his claim. That's not the action of a cop who got a scum result.

One of the bigger things to consider is that Rofl made a case against Charter. He also made a case against Infinis, Idiotking and Maemuki. He didn't make a case against Elvis. He just said 'she is scum, lynch her please'.

Since he did not tunnel vision anyone else like he did Elvis_Knits, I think we can conclude that he investigated someone who died on Night 2, or he investigated a townie.

I think if he had gotten a town result on someone still alive he would have made his result known (though obvious only in hindsight). And there is only one person that qualifies there, and that is fhq.

fhq is town

Roflcopter did have a lot of reasonable options for investigations, but he wasn't shy about reacting to his results in thread, so I think fhq is town.

To the people saying that Charter or RC was the investigation, please list what you feel were Rofl's investigations were and the results that he got. I believe his actions on Day 2 indicate that he did not have a certain result on either of them and was going off reads, even the 'oops, RC is town' line, and I'd like to know what results you think he had.

Here's what I think.

I think the second that the scum convince everyone that Rofl's Night 2 investigation was on Charter or RC is the second that they've eliminated the confirmation of a townie (fhq).

And that's why they're working so hard. Hiphop gets plenty of scum points and Xyl earns some, too.

I had hopes today of going with a policy lynch of Zakeri, but as I see the votes rack up on him and take a look at the vote counts, I feel the need to discuss something else first. Are we at lynch or lose?

Twenty five person game, 1/3rd would be eight scum, three are dead, leaving five. A town lynch today and a town kill tonight = 5 town, 5 scum = death. Granted, we don't know the setup, and anything from a back up vig to a lower number of starting scum (to balance out the large number of kills) will give us a little more breathing room but right now, I'd say that I'm going to let the dream of a policy lynch go.

Oh, look, SpyreX finally answered my question from Day 1. I'll get to him, his case, and a vote on somebody next time.

[Pads]

Sup unnecessary fear mongering.

Takes one to know one, apparently. This town has rushed into three lynches, none of which have turned up scum (yes, I realize that one was an SK, but the point is we've only been able to lynch people the scum have wanted dead). If you want to try and convince people that my call for caution is fearmongering, then good luck to you.

Yea I totally never answered that before.

But now that you have, I know what your case against me is, and I can appropriately defend myself.

Pads, still and forever, is scummy for the amazing amount of waffling early game. Just fabulous amount.

This is the part where you take an unwarranted step in reason, malicious or not. Waffling, is certainly an action often associated with scum. It's the unwillingness to make a decision when decision time has come.

But that's not what I did. At all. Not even a little bit.

What I did, was not know your alignment, and not have a strong guess as to what your alignment was. That's all. Guess what? I'm town. Townies don't know. Townies especially don't know on Day 1. I didn't know on Day 1. Heck, the way you've been playing I still don't know. I've seen townies put their fingers in their ears and focus on 1 or 2 people all game, just like you have, so your play is not without precedent. But the feeling that you're saving me and Shotty for a LyLo wagon is most certainly in the air.

All that said, if you were at L-1 right now, I'd make the call. I'd hammer or I'd call you town. I might be wrong, but I'd throw my hat in the ring one way or the other and take my chances. When decision time comes, I do not waffle. Haven't waffled this entire game, with the exception of the Maemuki case, which was hammered on before I could make a deciding post.

Wrong or right, I made the call to vote in favor of keeping RayFrost alive, I made the call to jump on Elvis' wagon. I made the call on Zakeri earlier today, and, as loathe as you may be to admit it, I made the call on your wagon, despite its popularity, to step off of it.

You are either town that believes that a scum disengaged from a popular town wagon, or you are scum who has latched onto a victim and is either saving him for lynch or lose, or simply doesn't know how to let go at this point without looking suspicious.

Either way, I'm not guilty of what you say I'm guilty of.

Pads' interpretation of the nightkills seems like it has an agenda to it.

Darn tootin'. I think people are pointing to the wrong confirmed town. And my agenda is to convince people of that belief.

He also strawmans his opposition by saying their argument is based on rofl's certainty, when rofl is almost always certain, but I don't see anyone here saying that,

I do.

It isn't just this one. Look at his vote of rc and onward. He even voted charter in his first post of day 3. Meaning he had a guilty on charter.

He went through the same posts everyone else did and used the same agenda for a one-sided interpretation. Rofl didn't case build on Elvis (except this reason is extremely flawed because he did, he connected Elvis to Infinis)

I assume you mean Imaginality? The case was little more than Rofl using general scum theory on Imaginality's scum/town list. And it was more or less along the lines of this:

i would say that at least two of elvis, mae and idiotking are scum.

But, otherwise inexplicably, there is a noticable difference in his conclusion on each person.

conclusions
elvis is scum. lynch her now please.
mae is very likely scum.
idiotking is very likely scum.

Hiphop gets points for getting a good interpretation of rofl out first, but it'd be unfair to give him too many.

Really? Hiphop voting for the person he thinks Roflcopter got a confirmed town result on is a good interpretation?


Post came in at 1250 words. I'll post the other half tomorrow.

[Pads]

Sup unnecessary fear mongering.

Takes one to know one, apparently. This town has rushed into three lynches, none of which have turned up scum (yes, I realize that one was an SK, but the point is we've only been able to lynch people the scum have wanted dead). If you want to try and convince people that my call for caution is fearmongering, then good luck to you.

Yea I totally never answered that before.

But now that you have, I know what your case against me is, and I can appropriately defend myself.

Pads, still and forever, is scummy for the amazing amount of waffling early game. Just fabulous amount.

This is the part where you take an unwarranted step in reason, malicious or not. Waffling, is certainly an action often associated with scum. It's the unwillingness to make a decision when decision time has come.

But that's not what I did. At all. Not even a little bit.

What I did, was not know your alignment, and not have a strong guess as to what your alignment was. That's all. Guess what? I'm town. Townies don't know. Townies especially don't know on Day 1. I didn't know on Day 1. Heck, the way you've been playing I still don't know. I've seen townies put their fingers in their ears and focus on 1 or 2 people all game, just like you have, so your play is not without precedent. But the feeling that you're saving me and Shotty for a LyLo wagon is most certainly in the air.

All that said, if you were at L-1 right now, I'd make the call. I'd hammer or I'd call you town. I might be wrong, but I'd throw my hat in the ring one way or the other and take my chances. When decision time comes, I do not waffle. Haven't waffled this entire game, with the exception of the Maemuki case, which was hammered on before I could make a deciding post.

Wrong or right, I made the call to vote in favor of keeping RayFrost alive, I made the call to jump on Elvis' wagon. I made the call on Zakeri earlier today, and, as loathe as you may be to admit it, I made the call on your wagon, despite its popularity, to step off of it.

You are either town that believes that a scum disengaged from a popular town wagon, or you are scum who has latched onto a victim and is either saving him for lynch or lose, or simply doesn't know how to let go at this point without looking suspicious.

Either way, I'm not guilty of what you say I'm guilty of.

Pads' interpretation of the nightkills seems like it has an agenda to it.

Darn tootin'. I think people are pointing to the wrong confirmed town. And my agenda is to convince people of that belief.

He also strawmans his opposition by saying their argument is based on rofl's certainty, when rofl is almost always certain, but I don't see anyone here saying that,

I do.

It isn't just this one. Look at his vote of rc and onward. He even voted charter in his first post of day 3. Meaning he had a guilty on charter.

He went through the same posts everyone else did and used the same agenda for a one-sided interpretation. Rofl didn't case build on Elvis (except this reason is extremely flawed because he did, he connected Elvis to Infinis)

I assume you mean Imaginality? The case was little more than Rofl using general scum theory on Imaginality's scum/town list. And it was more or less along the lines of this:

i would say that at least two of elvis, mae and idiotking are scum.

But, otherwise inexplicably, there is a noticable difference in his conclusion on each person.

conclusions
elvis is scum. lynch her now please.
mae is very likely scum.
idiotking is very likely scum.

Hiphop gets points for getting a good interpretation of rofl out first, but it'd be unfair to give him too many.

Really? Hiphop voting for the person he thinks Roflcopter got a confirmed town result on is a good interpretation?


Post came in at 1250 words. I'll post the other half tomorrow.

[Pads]

Damndable lag.

[Pads]

roflcopter had a 50% chance of being sane, and a 50% chance of being insane, and knew it. Therefore he knew that his first night's inspection was worthless information-wise - it told him nothing about elvis_knit's alignment. Why would he try to get elvis lynched based on worthless info? He wouldn't.

I'm not so sure. Seems like wanting to see the alignment of the person he investigated as soon as possible is not an unreasonable thought, as it would tell him his sanity. Roflcopter wasn't shy about calling for the lynches of people he suspected, I don't see why he would be shy about calling for the lynches of someone whose death would tell him his sanity. (PPE: I see pops said the same thing, meh)

But, alright, there's a fair point here, and there's some things that do support the RedCoyote night one investigation. RedCoyote did have a FoS from Roflcopter on Day 1, making him a reasonable choice for the investigation, and Day 2 Rofl did say he was 50/50 on RedCoyote. And of course, it explains Rofl's switch on RC once he saw Charter's flip.

But if I accept the RC/Charter investigation theory then Rofl's behavior during the Elvis wagon and his declaration that 'fhq is town' don't fit. I feel like I'm missing something that will make all of these points fit. 'Roflcopter talked with more certainty than his game knowledge dictated' isn't working for me, as most of his scumlist posts were riddled with 'probably's and 'most likely's, while his declaration of RC, Charter, Fhq, and Elvis were all with an 'is'.

I'll ponder it some more.

The Zakeri wagon is just awful. It's going to tell us nothing.

Liking IK more on an iso read. There's an overarching townie-like tone that's hard to convey with quotes, but I have a hard time seeing someone who dislikes being scum so much as to replace out if they get scum so easily duplicate it.

On pads part one: the popular term of "waffling" is different from what i think you think it means. It means changing one's mind of someone's alignment without any clear reason for a reversal of opinion, that might be fueled by a scum motivation, like changing a town read to scum if it looks like a juicy mislynch, or changing a scum read to town if that player is scum and you'd rather swap out the credit for actually saving your partner.

Even with that definition there's little traction for a case. I clearly listed back on day both the town like things I found in SpyreX's behavior and the scum like things I found in his behavior.

I forget who it was, but someone said earlier in this game that scum hate to give a formalized, definite opinion of their scumbuddies, which is something I agree with. So, if someone wants to think that I'm SpyreX's scumbuddy based on those actions, I could understand it. But SpyreX surely knows that we are not scumbuddies.

My top suspects include Hitogoroshi and Hiphop. I have seen two people in previous Mafia games play as carefully and mindful of potential mistakes as Hitogoroshi is playing now. They were both scum.

The last two sentences of Hiphop's Post 1612 defy description.

[Pads]

I'm going to be incapable of major rereads until Tuesday when I'm done with finals, but I'll be looking at whoever was pushing hito lynches then.

SttB is implying that he holds one or more of the following beliefs:

a) Only scum find townies scummy.

b) The scum made a choice to make themselves look bad by killing someone they had publically denounced as scummy, and revealing that person to be non-scum.

c) We should out the vig.


The first option is a path to a mislynch, the second option doesn't make much sense, and the third option is just anti-town play. A reread of Shotty to the Body ensued. It is not good.

His last 40 posts (PPE: as per the typing of this) are here with a quick analysis of each. Direct quotes are removed to save space, but this list is designed to be read with another window open showing SttB's iso.


Iso Post 30 - Says he's suspicious of RayFrost. Says he will reread RedCoyote (an analysis of RC never occured)

Iso Post 31 - Says he will reread Hito (an analysis of Hito never occured). Says he will vote IK for reasons previously discussed.

Iso Post 32 - Questions Idiotking's assumption that there are two scum left.

Iso Post 33 - Votes RayFrost so that we can look at him. (There's no further analysis of RayFrost from Shotty to the Body, indicating how much he was 'looked' at)

Iso Post 34 - Defends himself against SpyreX

Iso Post 35 - Defends himself against SpyreX

Iso Post 36 - Defends himself against SpyreX

Iso Post 37 - Defends himself against SpyreX

Iso Post 38 - Defends himself against SpyreX

Iso Post 39 - Defends himself against SpyreX

Iso Post 40 - Agrees with Hiphop's confirmation of town-RC, saying that Hiphop's arguments make sense.

Iso Post 41 - Questions hiphop about his case against RC. Both 40 and 41 are repeats of the sentiments posted by others.

Iso Post 42 - Repeating of other people's thoughts regarding the killing of Charter.

Iso Post 43 - Game setup discussion and repeating of other people's thoughts regarding a back up vig.

Iso Post 44 - This could almost be considered a content posts, except that he doesn't actually express any opinions other than dismissing the opinions of others.

Iso Post 45 - Game setup discussion.

Iso Post 46 - Game setup discussion.

Iso Post 47 - IioA and repeating what others have already said.

Iso Post 48 - Game setup discussion. I hope everyone reads that last sentence a few times.

Iso Post 49 - Defends himself against SpyreX

Iso Post 50 - Explains his defense against SpyreX

Iso Post 51 - Defends himself against SpyreX

Iso Post 52 - IioA

Iso Post 53 - Agrees with someone without adding anything himself.

Iso Post 54 - Agrees with someone without adding anything himself.

Iso Post 55 - Copy and paste of the vote count.

Iso Post 56 - Vote count repair.

Iso Post 57 - Some minor opinions about game setup.

Iso Post 58 - No content.

Iso Post 59 - Nothing of value.

Iso Post 60 - Nothing of value

Iso Post 61 - Nothing of value

Iso Post 62 - Call for a mass prod.

Iso Post 63 - IioA

Iso Post 64 - Nothing of value.

Iso Post 65 - Barns a townie. Nothing wrong with that, except he fails to add anything himself. Likely instigating from the sidelines.

Iso Post 66 - Condemns Zakeri because he won't defend himself. But the truth is that Zakeri had already stated that his spot in the game was guilty of what he was being accused of, lurking.

What defense is a lurker supposed to have, anyway? The whole idea of a lurker lynch is to dispose of an unreadable player. But SttB seems to have forgotten that and is portraying Zakeri as scum.

Iso Post 67 - Pushes the Zakeri lynch as a done deal. There's a clear air of not trying to find another option.

Iso Post 68 - IioA

Almost no content, and every trick in the Plainsight Lurking 101 book is in use here. No reads and no real idea creation is going on here. And, of course, he's managed to slip on every non-scum (IdiotKing pending) wagon that's moved for the entirety of his time in the game, and he was a part of neither Charter nor Elvis_Knits' wagons at the time of their deaths.

It's time to lynch Shotty to the Body.

vote: Shotty to the Body

Furthermore, with Shotty to the Body flipped as scum, we can assume SpyreX is town (his reactions to SpyreX's attacks are emotional and vulgar enough to dismiss the likelihood of scumbuddiness), we can assume Idiotking is likely town (given Shotty's willingness to get on that wagon), we can assume Hiphop is likely town (given Shotty's willingness to get on that wagon) and we seriously need to consider RedCoyote as his partner, given SttB's lack of a read on him (granted, he did the same to Hito), his willingness to 99% confirm RedCoyote (a townie would not say 99% sure for someone he considers to be confirmed), and his light defense of RedCoyote after Hiphop's vote on him.

[Pads]

As for HipHop, Post 1776 takes a few too many leaps in logic for my taste. But his point about the second RedCoyote quote there is worthy of more serious consideration, as that does certainly look like scum reacting to their buddies' wagon.

[Pads]

Although it feels unnatural, I'm going to try and be brief.

I think Hiphop is one of the following two things:

a) Well meaning, insane-genius/raving-lunatic townie

b) Bussing scum buddy of godfather RC.

The odd thing is, if we lynched RedCoyote today, and he flipped Godfather, Hiphop is the correct lynch the following day, for having way too much accurate information.

Hiphop's behavior is enough to make anyone second guess his words. But RedCoyote would be a better lynch as he seems to be squirming in his chair and would shed some light on Hiphop's behavior. But neither is the best lynch for today.

Moar Shotty votes. SpyreX, Pops, Fhq, IK... let's get it done.

[Pads]

Vote Count, Day 5

hiphop ( 0 )
shotty to the body ( 3 ) Pads Sotty7 popsofctown
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 1 ) hiphop
Sotty7 ( 2 ) Shotty to the Body RedCoyote
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 2 ) SpyreX fhqwhgads

With 8 alive, 5 needed for a majority.
Deadline is December 23rd, 11am EST

I'm headed to bed, but I will look the material over when I wake up.

[Pads]

Pads analysis of Shotty to the Body's analysis of Sotty.


Iso 13 - A reasonable interpretation.


Iso 14 - I'm not sure the characterization implied by the word 'pet' necessarily makes her revoting of Sigma scummy, but it's true that she did not offer more reasons for the vote at a later time.


Iso 15 - It's not really OMGUS if you have reasons for it. I certainly don't shy away from pointing fingers at people who I think attack me either unfairly or with weak arguments, and I don't find it scummy when others do it.

OMGUS witch hunts are a pet peeve of mine. It encourages a scenario where, if someone attacks me, I'm never allowed to attack them back for the rest of the game, because then my attacks are obviously just OMGUS. Nonsense.


Iso 16 - I don't find anything unreasonable about this post. I have an inkling that Shotty is using the word 'echoes' here with a negative connotation, but I guess there's really not a better alternative.


Iso 17 - Again, I don't find it OMGUSy. Her opinion on Charter is, indeed, a bit wishy washy.


Iso 18 - I don't see anything unreasonable about the comment concerning Zakeri and Shotty to the Body, although the point is obviously voided by Zakeri's town PM. However, Zakeri's town flip, in lieu of this comment, gives a small scum bump to Sotty and a small town bump to Shotty.


Iso 19 - It's also easy for a scum to vote a townie, but that doesn't mean that only scum do it.


Iso 20 - Yeah, this is not a good post.


Iso 21 - What? It's not setup speculation at all. It's Sotty's interpretation of the observed facts.

Iso 22 - Absent from Shotty's analysis, for whatever reason. Nothing jumps out at me as a malicious reason not to include this post in his analysis, but for my part, this post seems reasonable.


Iso 23 - I can't blame anyone who can't reach a conclusion on Hiphop.


Iso 24 - All Zakeri votes were equally fail, in my opinion. And it's true enough that those reads were never given.


/looks at the elephant in the room

/sigh

unvote

Shotty? I'm going to get a lot of negative attention for this, but I think it's important. I'm going to ask you something, and once answered you do not have the opportunity to change your answer at another time, atleast where my opinion is concerned.

Are you our vig?

I can't be the only one who noticed your return to the game post came right after IdiotKing's death, as though you were waiting to see the result before posting. You being the vig does explain the plainsight lurking, the desire to hunt down hito's attackers, and the indication that you gave that you have something to claim.

To those who are going to attack me for possibly outting a power role, fine, have at it. But at this point, not mislynching is more important than 'zomg protect power roles from being NK'ed'. And if I was scum, I would have just kept it to myself and killed him during the night.

My vote will depend on Shotty's answer.

[Pads]

I'm feeling much better about RedCoyote's second half of the day play, especially with that last post.

@ Hiphop, As for the first question, I'm playing that one close to the chest for the moment.

As for the second question, absolutely.

Uncountered power roles do not get a free pass in my book at this point. We do not have enough time to verify them, and they can no longer do enough damage that the scum would necessarily feel it prudent to kill them over a highly pro-town player (so their continued existence is not evidence that they were lying, especially since a claimed power role being allowed to survive the night is an easy path for a mislynch).

To that end, more than just them claiming a role needs to be examined. Their entire play, within the context of their role, must be considered. Their list of night actions must be considered, in addition to any breadcrumbs they left. As I said before, if Shotty is the vig, what I took for scummy play is reasonably explained. Another power role? I'm not so sure.

To anyone who gets their panties ruffled by that, let me ask you this: Do you think we stand any realistic chance of hitting scum today if we issue a blanket refusal to lynch uncountered power roles?

If there's three more scum, for a total of five at the start (six with charter), which is not unreasonable, we are at lynch or lose, assuming no relevant night abilities.

If there's two more, which is what I think is the case, we are at lynch or lose tomorrow.

We've done pretty poorly by blindly singing the chorus of 'good policy' in this game, thus far. It's definitely time to buck the status quo, and it will soon be time for me to look at the song leaders.

[Pads]

Not to mention Pad's whole "I'm voting you if you claim anything but vig" business.

That was almost close enough to what I said to not be a total misrepresentation. What I said, is that if he's the vig, it explains his actions. If he claims to be another role, I would not be so sure that his actions are explained by having that role. Not being sure implies that I would consider it before I made a call.

You know... thinking about stuff? Reacting to stimuli, having your opinions changed by what you see in the game? Something that you have failed to do for the entirety of the game?

I'm glad I'm not the only one who was thinking about the idea of scum saving lynchable townies for the end game, because that's certainly what your behavior has reminded me of. You've "Dog+Shoes"'ed Shotty and myself for the entire game, without making a real push for our lynches beyond 'woe is me, no one wants to lynch Pads or Shotty'.

I bolded the ding ding ding parts. If you're going to lynch, then you damn well put it to where its a for reallies lynch not after unvoting after someone else unvoted.

The claim is a function of the wagon. Not a byproduct of if one is going to be wagoned or not.

I laughed. There's a certain subtlety going on at the moment. Red Coyote picked up on it. Sotty picked up on it. Hiphop picked up on it.

SpyreX blew threw it like an out of control train into a brick wall.

I can't help but wonder if that's because SpyreX can't see it, because he's not town, and can't see the game through a town's eyes.

I would really like Shotty's post soon.

[Pads]

Why the change of heart since 1847?

[Pads]

But you just said 'regardless of wagon size'

[Pads]

Yes, but you're not picking a stance, is my point.

My lynch looked like a foregone conclusion then, now it doesn't.

is the polar opposite of

I don't think my claiming would be pro-town right now, regardless of wagon size.

You either would claim at the brink of being lynched or you wouldn't.

'Less accountability' is a poor argument, unless their votes on you get erased and the town can't see them afterwards. Every person is accountable for every word and every vote.

I gotta think a scum in your position has the following going through their mind:

If I fake claim vig, the real vig will counter and I'll be outted.

If I fake claim something else, Pads might not buy it anyway, AND i could be unlucky and pick a role that's still out there and get counterclaimed anyway.

So, I'll go back on what I said I would do and refuse to claim! lolz, stupid frog!


You offered no defense of your game long nil contribution, and while you may be a townie doing what he feels is right, you are also doing exactly what a scum would do.

vote: Shotty

For the previously stated case (updated [not edited, relax] to include you being in support of the lynching of yet another confirmed townie, IdiotKing)

[Pads]

Vote Count, Day 5

hiphop ( 1 ) SpyreX
shotty to the body ( 2 ) Sotty7 Pads
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 1 ) hiphop
Sotty7 ( 2 ) Shotty to the Body RedCoyote
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 2 ) fhqwhgads popsofctown

With 8 alive, 5 needed for a majority.
Deadline is December 23rd, 11am EST

What's that? The fatal flaw in my argument is that if you were scum false claiming vig the real vig would shoot you during the night or next day phase whilst remaining anonymous? Oh, okay. When I said the real vig would counter, I meant he will counter with a headshot, not with "Oh, hai, everyone. I'm the real vig."

Pops, from my point of view, the option was directing the scum's gun (assuming they hadn't noticed it themselves, which is unlikely) versus continuing to vote for someone who just might be a townie. Which is dumber? I'd rather them use their kill then us use our lynch.

But that moment is gone. He's offered no excuse for his terribly unproductive game long play, instead choosing to offer a textbook Scum-made case on Sotty (i.e. one or two reasonable points, five or six mediocre points, and 1 or 2 misreps) as misdirection.

[Pads]

Hey, guys, have you seen Pads' latest post? It proves he's scum.


Go ahead and put that line in your sig, there SpyreX. It'll save everyone the trouble of having to read what 'new' you have to say with your latest general sweeping dismissal of other people's opinions (psst, that's a scum tell, btw). You and pops have been holding hands all game. People who have noticed the connection are not out of their minds.

How much damage have we done to the town in the name of 'good policy'? Are we really going to lynch Sotty based on the fragile case of a pressured lurker who hasn't made a case on anything since, what, Day 2, in the shadow of a significantly more overwhelming case against said lurker? Seriously, lynch me before jumping on that one.

Damn straight I'm going to make a call with whatever time we have left. What else would I do? Stick my fingers in my ears and close my eyes? I'm observing and discussing until the curtain comes down.

PPE: Scotty?

[Pads]

Did you unvote and then ask for a claim, specifically a claim of a vig?

Yes.

Did you then pretty clearly say that anything but a vig claim was going to have to require you to "think" about the claim?

Yes.

Did you suggest to lynch uncounterclaimed power roles as that would be the only way to find scum?

No. This is what I'm talking about, you're missing (of refusing to acknowledge) the subtleties. I said that at this point in the game, power roles have very little purpose left. I agree with not lynching an uncountered doc on Day 1, because he has a game full of doc'ing in front of him, and the scum are loathe to leave him alive because of that. But at this point, the Townie part of the PM is worth far more to me than, say, another shot in the dark, such as the IdiotKing kill.

And I think the scum share that point of view. Leaving a power role alive for an extra night is worth the WIFOM it creates, so the lack of a dead claimed power role the next morning isn't enough for us to determine that the claimer was lying.

If we issue a blanket refusal to not lynch anyone who says 'Zomg, don't lynch me, I'z the Town Paperboy!' then the most realistic conclusion to that algorithm is ending up lynching a Vanilla Townie who is telling the truth. Did I say to insta slam down the hammer on any non-vig PR that might be claimed? Of course not. What I said is that an uncountered power role can not be a free ticket to the next day at this point.

I'm saying that Day 1 policy shouldn't be copy and pasted to Day 5.

Is the lurker you're defending weighing in at 35 posts?

Is the lurker you're attacking weighing in at over double?

This is a fallacy and you know it. Quantity does not equal Quality. Besides, the case against Shotty is clearly for 'PLAINSIGHT' lurking. I naively thought that I didn't have to add the word plainsight in every time I discussed his lurkiness, but apparently I do, else it be forgotten.

Have you opted to defend a lurker because the other "hasn't made a case" when the lurker you've opted to defend pretty much has done the same things?

I do not accept the premise that Sotty is a lurker. Certainly not the most active, but nowhere near, say, a Zakeri. Besides, Sotty's big post on the last page is worth more than all of Shotty's Day 3+ play combined.

I'm still curious as to who you voted for in 1878. Context implies Sotty, but I (and likely the mod) would like to know for sure.

[Pads]

Nearing lylo your argument is that power roles, namely a day vig, have little purpose.

In comparison to their purpose at the start of the day? Yes, of course. Are you trying to say that six days of power role is not better than one or two days?

Which is even MORE amazing in this game because the damn vig has killed all the mafia. WE sure haven't.

First of all, we don't know what killed Imaginality. Neither RayFrost nor Charter took credit, and both had an alibi (Confid and Crypto).

Second, killing them has had nothing to do with the ability to sniff them out. He was directed to kill Elvis by the town (non-PR assisted, good old fashioned scumhunting). And he counterclaimed Charter, which was easy. The one time he's gone off on his own, he killed a townie.

I put far more value in townie scumhunting than I do in power roles. And you can quote me on that until the end of time.

And if you're leading up to "Pads wants to kill the vig because he killed a townie", then please compose yourself before you do.

I am not even sure where this absolutely amazing and false dilemma of save the PR's is coming from.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

Pretty sure that no one has even pretended to say "Ohh snap its a PR lets all bow to him in his PR glory"

What about a few lines up where you praised the vig as the only killer of scum in the game?

Pretty sure that lynching lurkers is going to become even MORE relevant (like, ohh, PR's) as we approach lylo.

Then help me lynch one. One based on quality, not quantity.

Or, if you'd like, we can go through all the posts in the game and count up everyone's amount of typed words, and conclude that the person with the lowest number is the scummiest. That's no less ridiculous than the way you're justifying calling Sotty a lurker now.

And, yea, scum are totally gonna not gun for a PR for the WIFOM factor. Doubly so a vig. I mean, not like the vig has interrupted any plans thus far rite

If I was scum, might I let a vig live one more night to create WIFOM and possibly create a mislynch in lylo? Uh, I would certainly consider it, yes. The strength of the power role is proportional to the doubt manufactured in the townies' minds.

No, quantity does not equal quality. I am making no comments about that. I am making the direct and vocal statement that 35 posts is absolutely unacceptable and the fact that you're defending this as somehow not lurking is truly a beautiful and rare flower.

35 doesn't seem unreasonable to me in a game that has moved at the speed that this one has because of retards like you and I willing to spam slapfights at the drop of a hat. And I hope everyone takes note of the "Quantity isn't important! 35 is bad, though!" sentiment here.

And that large post? The one that calls Shotty scum and everyone else town except for Red who maaaayyy be scum? That is your silver shield of the true paragon of scumhunting?

It shows a taste for nuance, and it's opinion laden. I said it was worth more than anything Shotty's done since 3, not that whole shield metaphor thing that you said.

Which such awesome little bits as:

Pads thinks a lot like me. I think he is town simply because of this fact, we use a lot of the same logic on people especially his reasoning for rolf investigating fhq

A reasonable observation on your part, and I noticed that line, too. Of course I"m always on the lookout for scum trying to butter me up, but I have no other reason to suspect that comment at the moment. I imagine your take on it differs slightly, however.

Extra points for leaving out entirely the earlier "OHH LOOK AT HIM AND HIS ANTI-TOWN VIG LOOKING OHH YA ARE YOU VIG?"

Why would I want to leave it out? I made an observation, and I reacted to it. That I slammed on the brakes for a moment should indicate to you that I don't have some over-arching scum plan that I"m sticking to.

[Pads]

Well, he's a (plainsight) lurker. He's only going to respond to pressure. /shrug.

[Pads]

That is exactly what I'm saying. And that seven is better than six. Etc, etc. The relative value of PR's, especially the one we are talking about actually increases as the game goes forward.

We're not talking about relative value of the PR on different days (of course a Vig and Doc's perceptions sharpen, and his likelihood to make a difference improves as the game goes on), we're talking about "If we lynch this claimed PR right now, and he's actually that PR, how much does it cost us for the rest of the game." On Day 1 the risk is universally accepted as not being worth it, because there's still plenty of time to test the claim without resorting to a lynch. On Day 5, without that time buffer, I don't think that play is valid enough to be a foregone conclusion..

If you are saying you were not insinuating that the end result of an uncontested PR claim would be a different lynch well go ahead and confirm by voting yourself.

I am insinuating that the end result of a blanket policy to not lynch uncontested PR's is a different lynch. Shrug. I still feel like I"m missing something.

The hell does that have to do with anything?

You implied that no one had put PR's up on a pedestal, and then I pointed at where you had done just that.

I'm saying I'm not going to push aside a lynch because of a claim. For example, if you claimed vig I would still lynch you because I find your play scummy.

Well, then what the heck is your issue with what I'm talking about? Neither one of us is willing to let an uncountered PR claimant slide without further consideration. If we agree, then why are we arguing?

You're aging me, SpyreX.

The fact that you earlier condemned Shotty in one of your examples for "wanting to out the vig" and "that behavior is anti-town" and then you not voting for Shotty and, in fact, attempting to out him if he was the vig doesn't ring any bells?

Because if he's the vig (which is the possibility I was considering at the time), looking for Hito's attackers doesn't have the same potential to out the vig. It turns what I considered to be a scummy statement into a reasonably justified statement if he was indeed the vig. But it doesn't work if he claims, say, the Doc, because that comment would have still had the potential to out the vig. That's why other power roles wouldn't sway me as much as the vig would have.

But you may be talking about the perception that I changed tone from "outting the vig is bad, m'kay" to, "hey, guy, are you the vig?".

From my perspective, if he's the vig, he had already outted himself. The scum found charter pretty quickly, they clearly know how to look for this stuff.

If Shotty gets lynched and is not scum OR if Scotty gets lynched and is scum I am voting for you and leaving it there for the rest of the game.

Now who's creating false dillemas? The impilcation that this game is down to Sotty and Pads versus SpyreX and Shotty is a conspicuous step beyond 'bad idea'.

What does this mean? I know you are exaggerating, but if you really thought Sotty was that townie why didn't you say so earlier? I don't like this statement at all, not at all. You've said that you've liked my last few posts, if that's the case, how can you think Sotty is as townie as you are? What I'm really hesitating on is how I don't recall you ever giving Sotty a super-townie recommendation before right now, if you were that sure she was town why didn't you speak up yesterday? The day before? Last week?

Fair enough. Indeed, I have not spoken about Sotty much, maybe in the early game, but that's about it. The reason is simple, I had not read into Sotty beyond those quotes other have brought up.. The reason I had not read Sotty extensively is also simple: I haven't seen a reason to. Most of her posts seem reasonable to me, and what of hers has caused me pause has not alarmed me to the point of feeling the need to read her more closely.

That said, I did take a closer look, with the 'aid' of Shotty's PBPA. I posted my analysis of that analysis earlier. I see I didn't post a conclusion there, and I guess I could see how my unvote of Shotty might at first lead someone to think I agree with his case. But I do not. And I think my subsequent play has been clearly in opposition to that case.

Where did I say that I think Sotty is as townie as I am? Do you mean playstyle or in-game read? I don't consider my style to be so townie as to be beyond reproach. Crypto is the only other person whose style I would say is similar to my own. As for in-game read, my town PM read obviously exceeds my in-game read of Sotty on the townie meter.

And it seems like you're implying that if I find a player to be townie, and that player finds another player scummy, even though I find that other player townie, that I've committed some sort of reasoning fail.

[Pads]

Vote Count, Day 5

hiphop ( 2 ) popsofctown fhqwhgads
shotty to the body ( 2 ) Sotty7 Pads
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 1 ) hiphop
Sotty7 ( 3 ) Shotty to the Body RedCoyote SpyreX
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 0 )
Total Votes ( 8 )

With 8 alive, 5 needed for a majority.
Deadline is December 23rd, 11am EST

Heh.

That's a townie talking, guys. You all need to unvote her.

Hiphop's wagon isn't much better. Hiphop has displayed that he's searching through the thread, researching events, and looking for new clues. He's developing, he's evolving, as a player, and he's trying to figure the game out.

The godfather thing is a little strange, for sure. But really, if he strongly believes RedCoyote is scum AND he strongly believes Rofl had a town investigation on RC, then Godfather sounds to me like a reasonable conclusion for him to come to.

And really, LAL? The policy lynch was immensely scummy yesterday and it's even worse today.

Maybe tomorrow pops can explain to us why a person who only participates in the game when he's under serious pressure is obv pro-town.

I have to be somewhere in thirty minutes, and I"m unlikely to be back before the deadline. I really hope the vote count looks different when I do get back.

[Pads]

*snicker*

May I assume I'm obvscum regardless of Shotty's, Sotty's or Hiphop's flip, then, SpyreX?

'Zomg buddying/bussing 'if they're scum

And, 'zomg staying off for townie points/only scum vote townies' if they're town?


What question are you answering, RC?

[Pads]

I sat for about two hours deciding what to write. I may regret later not trying to force the very tiny chance that the town still has to win, but it would be a lot of effort based on the idea that pops hasn't already figured it out, which seems unlikely.

So let's cut the crap and talk about what's actually going on. Scum are Shotty and Pops. SpyreX is the lyncher, with me as the target, and Hiphop, myself, and Fhq are the town. The town cannot force a lynch anymore, so it's really down to whether the scum want SpyreX to win along with them or not.

Shotty, Pops? I'd probably spite lynch SpyreX with you, if you want. What do you say?

[Pads]

SpyreX being the lyncher explains his game long desire to lynch me, his unwillingness to be swayed by any philopsophy that doesn't involve lynching me, his rather light-hearted interest in who might actually be scum, his disinterest in lynching his other suspect once a wagon started on that person, and his lack of reluctance to lynch anyone else once he realizes that my lynch is not happening on any given day.

Of course he wants us to no lynch. No lynch = 1 less town tomorrow = the town can no longer stop the mafia (assuming 2 scum left) and lyncher from insta-winning the following day. I highly recommend against it.

I am, of course, Town. And Vanilla at that.

Going to assume that some combination of RedCoyote's kills and RayFrost/Charter lying accounts for Imaginality's death (we never had anyone admit to that killing).

[Pads]

I understand the numbers, but we're not lynching a townie today, so that's not an issue.

As for the declaring your lyncher-ness, and the forcing of a no lynch, that's what I'm talking about. It's up to the scum whether they want to win with you or not. It certainly would be easier for them, but they may not like shared victories.

But if you want to say that you're town for now, then fine, what do I care? Help me lynch obvscum to show me how town you are.

vote: Shotty to the Body

Now that we've established he's not the vig, there's no reason to think his near game long plainsight lurk was anything other than hiding scum. Add in the misdirecting and half baked case against a person who ended up being town and his vanishing after said case, and this is clearly scum #1.

Let's string him up and see if Pops squirms, busses, misdirects, and proposes policy lynches like he did yesterday.

[Pads]

Hurray, SpyreX passed on my far too early vote.

unvote

Shotty is the only place my vote is going today, but I'm not ready for a lynch yet. I have some other things to talk about before that.

Although there are windows of opportunity for anyone else in the game to be scum, I really like Pops as the second scum, and I guess I'm going to have to lay out my case against him after all. But I'm not going to have a big enough block of time to do that until tomorrow.

And what are you talking about, SpyreX? The game isn't done right now in that scenario, since it is possible for Lyncher SpyreX to win, and possible for Lyncher SpryeX to lose. Zoraster has to keep the game running until only one certainty remains.

[Pads]

Assuming 2 scum, yes, there is little reason to not announce. But even in that scenario the lyncher is not sure how many scum are left. If there's just one, he dies a horrible death after claiming (the single scum stays hidden, of course). That's reason enough for the Lyncher not to claim.

[Pads]

Pads please point out how my case was half-baked or whatever.

*weep*

If memory serves, there has been precisely one instance this game of someone doing a line by line analysis of someone else's case, and it was me on yours. I've already commented on your case, even before Sotty flipped, and explained why I thought it was a case made by scum.

I hope everyone else has noticed at this point that while the rest of us are discussing the next step, our suspicions, and how we'd like to vote today, Shotty is concerned with but a single thing.

Wow. Really? How come then that rhetoric just want to make me lynch you too.

I would imagine it's because as the game's lurker and seemingly most popular choice for townie you have the luxury of sitting back and sniping at other people, instead of having to get down in the trenches and force reactions out of people to be able to read them. It's a dirty job, but someone's got to do it. Personally, I'm not of the opinion that we're going to find scum with three line posts once every two days.

And if you find the discussion so far to be scummy, that's fine, but let me tell you what I find scummy: broad, sweeping dismissals of points made by others. If you want to dismiss what I've said about the possibility that SpyreX is the lyncher, kindly address the points made in the quoted post and defeat them with logic, or state a disagreement with contrary reads. Don't just point at it and say 'That's all crap'.

All that said, I'm done talking about it anyway. As I said in the beginning (before pops pointed it out to me as though it were his own idea), if SpyreX is the lyncher, and there's two scum left, we're already dead. I thought the scum might want to come to an agreement, but I guess not. So, we'll do this the old fashioned way.

I'm not sure how Pops got on everyone's obvTown list (possibly because Elvis_Knits said so), but I'm guilty of it, too, so I can't complain. In truth, a re-read reveals how he's been willing to lynch pretty much every townie that's come through the station. I've decided to put this case into a Fun Facts format for some reason that I'm sure someone will find scummy.

Townies that Pops was willing to lynch on Day 1-2:

ConfidAnon
CSL
Infinis
Charter (zomg Pads, Charter was scum. Yeah, I know, but Pops wouldn't have known that yet)
Hiphop? (you tell us, Hiphop)
Energetic Penguin? (fhq, only you know)

Number of times imaginality is mentioned by Pops

: 0

Number of times Elvis, Elvis_Knits, E-K, or EK appreas in Pops' written (not quoted) text

: Once (quoted further down)

Number of times Pops deflected away from Elvis_Knits (with impressively subtle skill, I might add)

: 3

#1

There are two scum groups. (Stated as fact)

There are probably two scum groups. (Assumption).

I agree with Ek on this. he stated it as a fact, mafia could only be certain of this, so Vote: Crypto

Sheepy opportunism. Ok, there's no unvote here, so EP does know what happened. I still don't like the amount of independent thought coming from EP.


@ EP- why didn't you revote Hoopla once ConfidAnon died? Why do you seem utterly uninterested in influencing anyone's vote?

#2 (Parenthesis are mine)

Vote: Maemuki

I have a Mason reading between him/her and Elvis_Knits.

How can (you) call this steady flow of deep analysis lurking, RayFrost? (<-sarcasm)

#3

Rofl 1036 (hyperlink guy, teach me hyper links): You've established a double chainsaw relationship between Maemuki and E-k. That was a Tar tell, i recall. The big Tar tell. A massive one. FoS: Maemuki

FoS Maemuki and not Elvis? heh

Number of fluff posts, by my count

: 15
Iso 0, Iso 1, Iso 5, Iso 20, Iso 21, Iso 38, Iso 51, Iso 55, Iso 56, Iso 57, Iso 60, Iso 61, Iso 138, Iso 139, Iso 147

Plenty more to come as soon as someone else posts something.

[Pads]

Part 2

Number of dead scum that Pops has suspected

: 1

The one scum he did make a case on, Charter, wouldn't have been a part of his team at the time, though. So from Pops' point of view, that was a townie he made a case on.

"Zomg, Pads, being wrong doesn't make a person scum."

I'm aware. We have a dead vig who voted for every town wagon, shot 2 townies, and killed 1 scum only because he thought the town wouldn't have two vigs (which was incorrect, sorta).

If Pops was town, though, he wouldn't have known Charter had flipped alignments during the night, and his Charter attacks should have continued as normal. But the evidence is there to show that he was aware of the flip.

Number of negative things Pops had to say about Charter on Day 1, when we know for a fact that Charter was not on the scum team

: A lot.

Number of Pops' attempts to steer the town away from Charter on Day 3, when we know for a fact that Charter was scum

: Amazingly, three.

#1

@charter wagon: Infinis wagon makes more sense. His first post was pretty bad, I concur with that, but he's not independently scummy like Infinis. Pure connections isn't enough for me, nor is a case that is so largely based off connections.

Good god that quote is bad. His case against Charter was based on Charter making what looked like a laundry list of townies he'd be willing to lynch, not connections. Connections was Rofl's deal. Pops is attacking Rofl's case here. What about his own case? /shrug

#2

unvote Charter

He quoted the post because he killed Crypto that night. The situation resolved itself. Because he NKed crypto because he's vig.

vote: infinis

#3

@what-if-charter-is-sk: well the he's a dead one soon. If he last any longer than an outed vig should last, we lynch him. I don't think accepting his claim does any damage right now.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that none of these points are valid, I"m just illuminating what Pops was doing with himself at the time. In retrospect, I do find it scummy. Pops found three reasons to fend off the people going after Charter. a) The case (rofl's, not his) isn't good enough, b) Charter IS the vig, c) lynching a claimed vig is bad policy.



Number of strong looking townie wagons Pops has jumped off of while at the same time encouraging them to go forward: 2

#1
Iso 13 is too big to quote, but it basically says: Confid sure is scummy, but because he'll post more often I'm going to switch to EP instead.

#2

vote: hiphop

I feel Sotty's lead is comfortable enough atm for me to put my vote where it oughtta be.

And on second though, no lynch actually wouldn't suck that much. it's one vig versus one mafia, and the lynch has a chance of killing/ousting the vig.

This post is so bad it almost knocks me down. "A person I find scummy has enough votes that I'm going to take the pressure off of her so I can vote someone else I find scummy." Uh... what? Townies don't think like that. If they think they have scum, they stay on them to make sure they get lynched. This quote is from a scum hopping off the lynch most likely to happen so that he's not to blame when she flips town. (and that's what the above example is, too)

And the 'one mafia left' comment is so blatantly obvious, that it's almost certainly planted there to mislead the town about the number of mafia left (as opposed to being a slip of the tongue).

The best is yet to come. Someone post something, please.

[Pads]

Part 3 (Yeah, I accept the inevitable warning from Zoraster for post size)

Shotty is scum, and Pops is scum with him.

Number of times Pops has attacked/challenged Shotty's attackers or mocked anti-Shotty sentiments without actually calling Shotty town.

: 7

#1 (same post, chopped up for space saving)

I think Spyrex is inaccurate with his vote

(not rejecting Budja-scum, rejecting that reasoning. Haven't heard any cases besides Spyrex's as i recall)

#2

LOOK, can we all just come together, hold hands and lynch Budja. Its the right choice, and we all know it deep in our hearts.

Why does Spyro make me laugh so? Why?

(This post in its entirety can be found here, and while too big to quote, includes some nice misdirection to CSL).


#3

Hey, Spyrex, identify a player who sees your points in your Budja case. Like, is it just you and your own echo or am I missing a few devout followers?

The implication is clear: Other people don't agree with your case, so it must be wrong. Plain ol' faulty logic.


#4

Then Pads comes and scumhunts in a logical, coherent way, something I don't recall happening this game. He makes a good case for Shotty active lurking, which might be something i just could give a name to this whole game. It's pretty compelling, and he explains a lot of alignments it could tell us about. But he doesn't mention the most interesting alignment, which is his, and that makes me want to see Shotty's flip.

You know what's funny about that first sentence? This sentence, a few days earlier:

it was decent analysis. I don't see anything particularly wrong with pads.

Of course the "don't recall" gives him plausible deniability, but the point is that the first quote allows him to go in any direction he wants to go. He supports some ideas of the case, but brings into question the character of the case maker (something he's been doing for most of the game) and the last line is damn close to being redirection back to said case maker. Kinda strange looking, though, isn't it? Did he honestly expect me to analyze myself?


#5

Fine. ITT active lurking is worse than lying somehow.

Vote: Shotty

Joins the wagon whilst mocking it and redirecting. Scum tells 101?


#6

unvote Shotty to the Body

The fact the players I feel certain are town aren't voting him is definitely one factor in this unvote. And building a reasoned case on another player just answers an accusation of active lurking too well.

A laughable chainsaw. Coming to life only when you're targetted, in fact, CONFIRMS the accusations of active lurking.


#7

Shotty refuted most of Sotty's points against him, so I'm gonna stick with Sotty vote here. And although directing the scum's gun was pretty dumb of Pads, his explanation of how Shotty could be vig makes me less inclined to lynch him.

Gosh, golly, gee, Pads, that sure were a dumb thing you did right there, I reckon. The town better not listen to you anymore since you're doing things that are dumb.

Well, Shotty's not the vig (as was obvious in the later half of yesterday). I have yet to see Pops take away those town points that Shotty 'earned'. Not to mention those people Pops were town not voting for Shotty... One of the two people voting for him was confirmed town. A re-evaluation has yet to spring from Pops.

Speaking of things that were obvious, would you guys like to know how I figured out that Zakeri and Sotty were town? The Big Book of Behavioral Analysis told me so! Neither of them were concerned with their own survival (like Shotty was), instead they were dropping lists of who they suspected. That's what wagonned townies do.

But Pops has been too busy reading from How to Lynch Vulnerable Townies Whilst Appearing Town Yourself. CSL, ConfidAnon, Infinis, Zakeri, Sotty, and now Hiphop: all easy wagons to jump on. And some of them occured under the flag of Good Policy (tm), which I'm sure is a major part of that book. Creating mislynches based on good policy allows a scum to better justify his actions once the doomed flips town.

But the proof that's it's all garbage is that Pops is clearly taking his pick of which good policy to follow. "Let's Lynch a Lurker", "Lynch All Liars", and "Don't Out PRs" all sound fine and dandy. But the realization that Pops fought hard to keep a claimed Serial Killer alive shatters any illusion that Pops is some champion of Good Mafia Theory. He's pickin' and choosin' as he sees fit, because he's scum.

"Zomg, Pads, you wanted to keep Ray alive, too, so you must be scum as well!"

That's not the point and if you think it is you haven't been reading. I gave the finger to the status quo a while back. Pops, on the other hand, has been using it to lynch townies.


Conclusion: Pops has spent the entire game helping to get vulnerable townies lynched, whilst attacking the credibility of the remaining townies. Of Hiphop, SpyreX, myself, Shotty and fhq only the' untouchable' Fhq and Shotty's scumhunting efforts have gone unmarred by Pops. Btw, he did the same thing to Idiotking and RedCoyote, too.

Hiphop seems like a bunch of people's pet newbtown. i like IK newbtown way better, and don't get why hiphop's overt deception gets far less attack than IK's bumbling.

RC, you're acting like a dog that has realized it just tested out as purebred, and decided now it's safe to wallow in the mud endlessly because it's too valuable to get thrown out.

I'll leave you all with this 'what in the hell?' moment.

Shotty: who's scum? Did Sotty's flip surprise you? Does it make you re-evaluate your gameview?

What kind of limp wristed inquisition is that? Pops has been tongue lashing people for the whole game. SpyreX, Xyl, Infinis, RedCoyote, Idiotking, Maemuki, Vi and myself have all had our ability to play brought into question. So what's with this soft, gentle approach?

This is scum talking to a buddy any day of the week.

Today, scum need two townies to misvote. Tomorrow they need but one. Let's not dick around. Scum are just going to kill SpyreX or fhq, who no one was trying to lynch anyway, and decrease the number of townies they need to vote incorrectly whilst not affecting our number of targets at all.

Let's put this game away.

Only question is, do we lynch pops first, in the very small possibility that he really did slip about there only being one scum? Hiphop, SpyreX what do you think?

[Pads]

Second quote, obvusly I'm deflecting from talking about the dead e_k. Because I'm scum and I don't want to talk about my mason buddy i guess, it just makes me cry a little.

And third quote, I commit the seventh deadly sin and forget to FoS a dead player. Ohmigosh. FoS: Charter FoS: Elvis_knits FoS: Imaginality

True enough. In iso read, it's difficult to tell when game events occur and I didn't realize these quotes were after E_K was dead, but that's no excuse. My mistake. I stand by the first quote, though.

It's not circular logic, because it's not logic at all. It's just a list of the people who we know and/or highly suspect to be town that you were willing to lynch on Day 1. And while townies do vote incorrectly, at some point everybody has to stand responaible for everything that, well, shucks, just didn't go their way.

Most of the individual points against you are, by themselves, no big deal. Easily dismissble as coincidences. But all combined and taken together, I believe it's a bit too much to be coincidence after coincidence. I believe it's indicative of someone who knows what's going on and knows what they're doing with every step.

[Pads]

Well, unless Zoraster gives us an option to vote for 'Gee, I sure don't know what to think about Pads' you guys might want to look into expressing yourselves some other way.

We're half way through the day, and everybody seems to be sitting around waiting for the first shoe to drop, so allow me.

vote: Shotty to the Body

I've never been a fan of No Lynch. I think it just gives the scum one more opportunity to whittle the game down to a player base in which they will have the best opportunity to wait for a misvote. I'm sure some zen master is dying to tell me how sometimes you have to do nothing to do something, but I'll find a way to sleep at night. Besides, if the rest of the players feel that strongly about it, they don't need me to make it happen anyway.

Oh, and I feel compelled to enhance the vote list,

Pads

: SpyreX,

ConfidAnon

,

Mae

,

CSL

,

Elvis

,

Hit

, Shotty, Shotty, Shotty

Shotty/Budja

: SpyreX, EP,

CSL

,

Sigma

,

Sigma

,

Infinis

,

Infinis

,

IK

,

Rayfrost

,

Zak

,

Sotty

EP/FHQ

:

Confid

,

Hoopla

,

Confid

,

Crypto

,

RayFrost

,

IK

,

RayFrost

, Hiphop,

IK

, Hiphop

Hiphop

:

CSL

, SpyreX, EP,

CSL

,

Sotty

,

RC

,

Sotty

,

Char

ter

,

RC

,

RC

,

Zak

,

RC

Pops

:

Hoopla

,

Char

ter

,

Confid

,

CSL

, EP,

infinis

,

CSL

,

Mae

,

Infinis

,

Char

ter

,

Infinis

,

Rayfrost

, Shotty, Hiphop, Shotty, Hiphop

SpyreX

: Budja, Pads,

Mae

, Pads, Hiphop, Pads,

IK

,

Ray

, Shotty,

Ray

,

Zak

, Pads,

IK

, Hiphop, Pads,

Sotty

Anyone else thinks SpyreX's stands out?

[Pads]

Vote Count, Day 6

hiphop ( 0 )
shotty to the body ( 1 ) Pads
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
No Lynch ( 0 )
Unvote ( 5 ) Shotty to the Body SpyreX popsofctown fhqwhgads hiphop
Total Votes ( 6 )

With 6 alive, 4 needed for a majority.
Deadline is January 7th, 11am EST

"Hey, guys, have you seen Pads' latest post? It proves that he's scum."

Awful jumpy there, aren't you? I didn't say anything about EK or Charter, nor was I making a point that had anything to do with them. I just wanted to know if anyone else noticed that your vote history is conspicuously uncolored in comparison with everyone else.

I'm not sure what you mean by a power scum hammer, unless you're alerting us to inside knowledge that only a single scum remains.

[Pads]

That wasn't terribly clear. Let me try again.

"I"m not sure what you meant there about there being no chance of a power scum hammer..."

[Pads]

AND the fact that his shotty part of the case today was circumstantial to pops being scum

Completely backwards. As Pops pointed out, my case on him rests largely with Shotty being scum, not the other way around. Shotty is scum. He could potentially be scum with anyone here.

Pops, not as much. If he's scum, he's almost certain to be scum with you or Shotty.

Pops and Hiphop scum team? Unlikely. If you bus, you want townie points for it, and you get less townie points from a policy lynch (which pops was pushing on hiphop) of scum, then a 'zomg, I found a scum!' lynch.

Pops and Fhq scum team? Unlikely. He wouldn't have liked Hiphop's analysis of Roflcopter's investigations more than Sotty's/my analysis.

And to both of you: Do you guys honestly think that either of you is an auto vote first thing tomorrow if we end up with a dead scum Shotty tonight? Isn't it kinda weird that you BOTH are saying that?

[Pads]

Instead of needing two misvotes, they now need just one, and they've clearly created an environment in which they're going to get it.

Policy fails us. Again.

[Pads]

No chance it could just be 'looking at it in a different way', eh? It has to be 'twisting'?

[Pads]

Pops' way or the highway, then.

That certainly is, shall we say, a bold choice for a forum game with hundreds of different players.

[Pads]

Yeah, it says that the two mafia joined forces to become one, but I'm sure we all grew up with cartoons where when the evil guys all allied to make a super evil group, they all end up betraying each other. Probably not in a Normal game, though.

[Pads]

You implied that you find all viewpoints with which you don't agree to be invalid. "Mean' is not the adjective that came to mind.

[Pads]

The following is my kill analysis for the potential scum teams. It assumes three things. a) Pads is town, b) Shotty is scum, c) There are two scum remaining.

Shotty-SpyreX

Hiphop - This team is clearly playing for a Pads mislynch, playing on suspicion of a Hiphop/Pads scumteam. Doesn't work if Hiphop is dead.

Pads - Same as above.

Fhq - This is the townie misvote they need to win. No way they kill him.

Pops - Hasn't shown any real interest in voting Pads, and his death makes Pads looks worse. This is their kill.

Shotty-Hiphop

Likely waiting for the SpyreX on Pads vote for the win.

SpyreX - Left alive.

Pads - Same

Fhq - Declared Pads as his top suspect. They might kill him to make Pads look worse.

Pops - They'd probably be glad to get rid of Hiphop's assailant, and now that the heat has died down, it's less suspicious to kill him. Killing Pops leaves both Fhq and SpyreX in, counting on atleast one to lay a misvote.

Shotty-Pops

If this is the scum team, they're probably suffering a little from 'deer in the headlights' after being called out yesterday. They could reasonably do anything, although most likely they'd leave SpyreX and Pads alive to slapfight.

Hiphop - Killing him makes Pops looks a little worse, and closes the door on any Pads/Hiphop scum team theories after they were the only two that didn't No Lynch yesterday.

Fhq - A much safer bet. Leaves the idea of Pads/Hiphop open, and makes Pads look worse.



So, my conclusion, is that Shotty-SpyreX would have most likely killed Pops, and Shotty-Hiphop likely would have, too.

The Fhq death is much more indicative of Shotty-Pops scumteam, and maybe the play of the Shotty-Hiphop team. I find it pretty unlikely that Shotty-SpyreX would have killed Fhq.


Single scum theories:

Since we're not at lynch or lose, the single scum needs to play a little differently today, knowing he has to answer for it tomorrow. I really don't have many thoughts on the subject yet, but if we mislynch today and we're still here tomorrow, I'll deal with it then.

Either way:

Vote: Shotty to the Body

"zomg-pads-scum-early-votezorz!"

We had a week of discussion already, and I think we're out of self destructive policies, so how about we lynch scum?

[Pads]

Have I mentioned how much fun it's been having you post ten minutes after me, like, 80% of the time,?

I'm writing for another game, I'll be back here when I'm done.

[Pads]

Perhaps.

Okay, SpyreX. Here's a little exercise for you.

Start with the assumption that I'm town.

I know it hurts. Just try it.

Okay, ready?

Now, as town, am I totally unreasonable in thinking that the scum's plan for the win is mislynching me?

What else is going on? My case on Shotty and your suspicion of me, and that's it.

Here's another exercise. Assume you and I are both town. Go on, try it out.

Is it entirely unreasonable to think that the scum are leaving us alive so that you can put the bad vote on me?

As for me not talking about non-Shotty scum options. Well.... uh.. are you considering non-Pads-scum options? Not really. Not in any of the last three (six?) days posts, as far as I can tell. So I'm not sure how that makes me scum if it doesn't make you scum, too.

Well, at any rate, let's hope your 24 hour a day vigilance of the thread is alert for the second Pads vote coming down. If not, well, then I'll die with a scum's name on my lips.

[Pads]

Okay, Pops. Let's have some discussion.

SpyreX

I"ve had precisely one previous game where I had another player take some slight offense at my Day 1 play, and demand my head on a pike for the rest of the game. I was town, and that player was scum. I was even at L-1 at one point in that game, and I was able to convince the rest of the game that I was town, but not him. He was never swayed for one moment of the game. What I said previously - that SpyreX might be a scum who doesn't know how to drop suspicion without (from his point of view) looking suspicious - is a possibility that comes back to my mind, over and over again.

If you look at all the slapfights we've had, it usually goes like this. SpyreX brings up a point, I defend against the point, SpyreX posts again bringing up new points, ignoring the original points and the defense against them. He almost never stays on a single point of debate. That's indicative of a person who's not really arguing, discussing, learning, deciding, and debating. It's much more indicative of a person who's already got the conclusion, and is trying to find as many reasons as possible to justify it.

His case against me is mostly that he doesn't like my style of play (as you might imagine, I get that a lot), because there's not much else to point fingers at me for. I've come down on the right side of the last two lynches, (denouncing them, in fact) and I correctly fingered Elvis and Charter for scum. There's a reason I keep repeating "Have you guys seen Pads' latest post? It proves he's scum!", because that, and the fact that I didn't have a strong read on him back on Day 1, is about all his suspicion of me is based on.

SpyreX's odd reveal of a guilty conscience yesterday may be telling, as well. He thought he was the auto lynch after a scumShotty lynch. I'm not sure where that came from, since my case was on Pops-Shotty scum team.

While I do feel the kill does point away from a Shotty-SpyreX team, as I mentioned earlier in the day, it does not eliminate it. One point I didn't discuss previously is that scum usually loathe killing townies that have a town read on them. That may explain townPops surviving the night.


Hiphop

I understand your suspicion of him, I really do. His behavior has been jumpy and, as often as not, not instantly justifiable. I don't remember exactly off hand, but I do believe he earned my vote a time or two during this game. I don't really think he lied, I think he just made a mistake. I think the word lie word was used by someone else and he, unfortunatley for him, repeated it, and it stuck.

He's been doing research and looking back through the thread. Of course, anybody can quote stuff from the past, but I've never gotten the impression that he's quoting what's convenient for him. He's quoting what's there, and he's adjusting his opinion based on what he's seen.

If you're considering a Pads-Hiphop scum team, I don't mind. It's healthy. But if that thought is based solely on my defense of him, then:

a) I was called Zakeri's obvbuddy for defending him
b) I was called Sotty's obvbuddy for defending her

And now that I think about it, I seem to recall both accusations coming out of SpyreX.

[Pads]

"I think the word lie word was used by someone else and he, unfortunatley for him, repeated it, and it stuck. "

-word

[Pads]

Lay it down, Pops.

I'm eager to see the roles and night actions.

Final guess is Shotty and Pops.

[Pads]

Ya know, despite the fact that he basically stopped playing the game three days ago, I can no longer ignore that The Big Book of Behavioral Analysis is telling me that Shotty's reactions to me are pretty reasonable and understandable, especially considering he wasn't playing much before that.

So then, what's going on that's

not

reasonable and understandable?

Well, let's see... how about, two players forming a single hive mind, double voter? That's certainly what seems to be going on with SpyreX and Pops, who has stated he doesn't want to vote different than SpyreX. I gotta think both of these players know better than to do this with someone who's alignment they don't know. And that makes me wonder if they do know.

I also think, in general, in a game with multiple scum left over at lynch or lose, the scum are talking to each other, getting an idea of what they're all thinking, so they can slip onto the same wagon, with as little suspicion as possible. And in this game, I gotta think that's especially true, since the game doesn't end at the moment of the hammer, so the scum have to be really careful not to arise suspicion.

That would explain Pops asking SpyreX for a case on me, if Pops is scum, regardless of SpyreX's alignment.

But I wonder, could it really be that simple? Could the Pops-SpyreX handholding have gone past 'too obvious to be scum' and landed at 'so anti-town that it can only be scum'? It certainly comes to mind. Compare it to my relationship with Hiphop. I think he's town and I think he's scumhunting. But at no point do I feel I need his approval to put my vote on someone, and I seriously doubt a townPops would feel this way either.

I have no delusions of victory at this point. My only goal is to try and have my vote on a scum when the end comes.

unvote: Shotty to the Body

vote: popsofctown

I don't expect this to come to fruition, of course. SpyreX will never join this wagon, and likely I've alienated Shotty too much for him to even consider it if he's town.

At any rate, I'm sure this will hasten Pops' action, and we can all move on with life.

[Pads]

Heh.

If I'm scum, then I'm either going for a bus of my partner Shotty for townie points, or I'm trying to mislynch Shotty for the win.

There's virtually no chance that I switch my vote away from that L-1 target to the person who has yet to lay their vote down, if I'm scum. If I know the alignments, it's subpar play either way.

All that's left is that I must be a townie putting his vote where I think it belongs.

And don't misrepresent. Of course you're allowed to think someone is town. But to have such a strong read on someone else's town-ness that it suppresses the value you keep for your own reads and opinions? You haven't needed anyone else all game. Why, all of a sudden do you dismiss a, by your own words, reasonable and logical scumhunting case along with your read of me as a genuine scum hunter and instead let a gut instinct-borne flight of fancy (no scum bussing) and a townie read on someone determine your actions?

I think it's because you're scum, buttering up townSpyreX. And, frankly, I think if he is town, his enjoyment of your approval is going to lose us the game.

SpyreX has had me as his number one suspect since either Day 1 or Day 2. And it's been clear for three or four days that he's not going to consider a non-scum Pads option. There's no way I let him survive to lynch or lose if I'm scum. As obvious as the kill might be, leaving alive a townie that's going to absolutely, positively going to vote my lynch or lose is by far, a worse alternative.

But, regardless of who's town, I can't get three votes on you, Pops. So just end it, please.

[Pads]

Actually, SpyreX, although I'm considering the possibility of the SpyreX-Pops scumteam, my last post indicates that I still think it's Shotty-Pops.

And if I'm down to considering Shotty-Pops versus SpyreX-Pops, then where does my vote belong? On the common element, of course. Hence my switch.

Do hiphop and I even have a relationship? Sure, we've agreed on a few things lately. But it's not much next to the handholding you and Pops are doing. And we certaintly aren't checking with each other to make sure it's okay before we lay down our votes.

And Pops was deciding who to vote for, between Shotty and I. He's mentioned going either way several times today. At no point h ave I felt that his vote on Shotty was imminent.


And a correction to my grammatical trainwreck above:

As obvious as the kill might be, leaving alive a townie that's going to absolutely, positively going to vote my lynch or lose is by far, a worse alternative.

As obvious as the kill might be, leaving alive a townie that's going to absolutely, positively vote for me at lynch or lose is, by far, a worse alternative.

[Pads]

Far worse than having fhq who, although not CONFIRMED(TM), wasn't going to garner any votes AND called you out at scum in his last post?

And you're painting today as pops himming between you two?

Yes, SpyreX. For me as scum, the right play is still to kill you, especially considering that you also probably weren't going to garner any votes AND you called me out as scum. I look bad either way.

But, there was a chance that Fhq would vote someone else. Nothing in the last three or four days indicates that you were going to do anything other than vote me today. There's no way I leave you alive if I'm scum.

In fact, if I was scum, it'd be Xyl or RedCoyote standing here today, not you.

[Pads]

All that instigating from the sidelines looks like fun, Pops.

Let's see. Last three posts have been fluff, a bucket of WIFOM, and, lord help us, another kitchen metaphor. (btw, a quick look in the Big Book of Behavioral Analysis reveals that frogs in frying pans don't say 'hurry up and be done with it')

But no vote? I admit, the delay is kinda odd.

If you're scum, and Shotty is town, I don't know why you wouldn't have already hammered him. And I'm not totally sure why you haven't hammered me yet.

I wonder if you're treading very carefully to not irk SpyreX and making sure not to break his rules (wait for Shotty's rebuttal, don't change votes after the hammer, etc..)

[Pads]

Well, that should be game.

I know I'm a mislynch, so all I can do is try to facilitate another lynch, regardless of whether or not it's the one I want.

unvote

vote: Shotty to the Body

And, btw, Shotty, for future reference, when you say you're going to reconsider someone's alignment, it looks much less like a lie when you actually take your vote off of that person. And, frankly, if we had a townie promise a case in lynch or lose for four days and not deliver, we deserve our loss 100%.