Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win

[Patrick]

Hey all. My experience at mafia is about 3.5 years, though more on and off lately. I'm an IC disguised as an SE to get myself into this game.

Addressing the theory not covered several times already: no lynch can be helpful in a situation where we have a cop, a doctor and 2 claimed vanillas but no useful investigation results. In that situation, the odds can be improved by no-lynching and having the doctor protect the cop and the cop investigate someone for a more informed lynch the next day. There are probably others possible, most usually when there's an even number of players alive. On day 1, it's pretty much always a bad idea.

boberz, I'm not sure I understand your (2). Do you dislike Incognito asking ksen about when a no lynch might be worthwhile? It seems like you're looking for an answer from ksen too on that.

Vote: Ether

[Patrick]

I wasn't on AIM between...6 and 8:30ish pm last night, EST. So, um. Feel free to correct me, you two? I'm sure you're very ethical about this sort of thing.

I didn't speak to Incognito last night. Though this deduction seems odd if you're having to take our word on that.

Also Patrick I notice you did not pick me up on claiming that lurking is not a scum tell (which I believe it is not) does this mean you agree with me?

I think on the whole scum are more likely to lurk. Both town and scum can get bored and apathetic with the game, but scum sometimes also have strategic reasons to lurk, while town rarely does. It varies from person to person, but it's usually worth at least poking a person to see what's up. I disagree with the case against Incognito, though early vibe from this is town.

How would town know it was in that situation? In the games I've played on other sites the Town doesn't normally know how many scum are in the game.

How many scum do you think we have in this game?

[Patrick]

Ether raises a mildly interesting point though about the pre-game stuff that I hadn't considered. I know if I were scum, I would have asked for 72 hours to confirm in order to have enough time to talk with my partner. I'm assuming Patrick and Ether, as experienced players, might have asked for similar? Won't be checking either one off as completely Town at the moment, but it's something in their favor.

Actually, I have a hard time seeing experienced scum trying this in a game where the mod puts in the first post, "bolded people have confirmed". I think they'd worry about it sticking out. Maybe an experienced player would prefer to stall for a smaller amount of time, as I did with Ether when we were scum together, but I don't want to give this kind of reasoning much weight. For example, any IC and newbie could have got in a decent chat if both were online at the same time.

ksen's question does seem bizarre, since it seems he's saying he had an answer to it. It would have made more sense to me coming from someone who didn't know the number of scum.

I'm going to take your word for this and write you off as town. Awesome.

Meh. Can sort of see it.

[Patrick]

Because I don't have as much confidence in it as you apparently do.

[Patrick]

It's nice to be in a game where I can actually get some reads.

Unvote

herd pings slightly. His comment on Incognito's aim thing looks rather automatic considering it would apply equally to both me and Incognito and was only put forward as an argument for why we're not scumbuddies. The random vote doesn't particularly bother me considering it didn't come instead of content. My other early suspicion is ksen, who's thought process about the number of scum doesn't seem to make sense (not sure yet if this means much) and who's also posted 10 times but without any curiosity about alignments. I'd like to see more content from some others before deciding what to do though. I'd also like to hear Ether's opinion of ksen.

ksen: why start talking hypothetically if the very situation we're in actually answered your question to boberz?

@Patrick: I don't believe starkmoon was updating the "confirmed bolded" thing in regular fashion when she received confirmations. So while I can see where you're getting at with your disagreement, I don't think it would completely apply here.

This I don't know, not having been around for much of that time. I still feel like two scum taking ages over confirming would be poor play, but my reads so far make me care less about pursuing this debate.

[Patrick]

Ether: ksen's response was just a repeat of what he said already. I don't know whether it means something or not, but the question he asked boberz seems superfluous since he had an answer to it already (the mod telling people there's 2 scum), and I think it's worth trying to find out why, especially since I'm not wild about the rest of his play so far.

I asked for your read on him because you hadn't really talked about him aside from a non-comment about his theory, and he's one of the few people who's given me any scumvibes. I suppose I could have asked him in question form for reads, but I think it's heavily implied anyway.

I'm not sure why you think I need to post more? We've barely been open, and I've spent the majority of it at work or asleep.


boberz, Ether and Incognito all seem town to me. boberz just seems like a slightly paranoid townie, going through thought processes that remind me of how I played as new town, and being proactive. Ether and Incognito both give me protown vibes (with more confidence in the former). @boberz's last post: it's kind of hard to explain, and I'm not locked into those reads, but I think if either of them is scum I'll get the correct read today. The meta hasn't let me down yet, over a decent number of games. The most recent example of Ether as scum is this game, and you've already found an Incognito scum game.

I'm not getting much either way from herd's last posts. Herd, why do you feel Annachie's eagerness for the 3 ICs opinions on each other is scummy as opposed to just eager? It seemed like a logical thing to ask after it's been ttalked about how all 3 of us know each other so well.

[Patrick]

I have been clocking in all day to see the response to this, I think there has been enough time for something to happen now so I am not happy. As I say I had a very slight town read on ksen based on the no lynch argument, just because I didnt think scum would push an argument so hard when they were wrong.

The fact that ksen has not said much helpfull but tried to look like a regular poster I don't like but I do not think scum immediately, an experienced player I would think scum.

The second paragraph is more what sticks out to me about his play so far. Being wrong about theory is not usually scummy, especially in newbie games, but I don't think it's a town sign for him to be pushing it; it's relatively easy for scum to talk or argue about general theory as a way to try and appear active. Also, he could be scum who still genuinely believes his side of the argument. Ksen, can you link to a few games you've played on other sites? Thanks.

I don't feel the game has been particularly slow, for what it's worth.

[Patrick]

I don't actually see Darth's slight delays in posting as being scummy, and his post 103 seemed vaguely town to me for some reason. However, the content of his posts is uninspiring and seems mostly to be rehashes of things said by other people. I don't see how herd's random vote was a scumtell, and I'm not wild about how Annarchie used this as part of a reason to vote herd either, in a way that seems like vague following without really explaining why it's scummy. I'd like to see a complete thought process as to why it's more likely done by scum.

Annachie: you didn't explain why you suggested ksen talks about who might be a powerole. Did it ever come up in your previous game that outing poweroles is generally bad?

(Question: SE's and IC's have the same chance of being scum as everybody else right?)
Ether does worry me slightly by her frequent use of small text. Incog, Patrick. Is that something she does a lot? Also with the frequency and amount of her posting. Don't know how to read that though. Scum would try and post less not more right?

All roles are determined randomly, so everyone has the same chance of being scum whether they're a newbie, SE or IC. Ether's use of small text...null tell. Probably was even a town tell at one point, but I think she worked that out. I'm curious though, why small text is something you find worrying?

Vote: ksen.

I actually have a small theory that he could be scum with herd, but I feel happier with a ksen vote right now.

[Patrick]

Forgot to add in response to Annachie: Ether's frequency and amount of posting is a protown sign. She generally posts less and doesn't push the game forward much as scum.

[Patrick]

ksen, I thought you said you'd played games before? (I'd still like to see them). How do you think we're supposed to find scum? Why do you think at least one experienced player is scum?

[Patrick]

ok, the tone of incredulity at being asked to name suspects seemed odd to me for someone with experience, but skimming the links, it seems like a pretty basic level of play, so I'm not so sure. Have you read Ether's posts?

As I said on this page, all roles are chosen at random. The idea that one experienced player must be scum is something heard semi-often in newbies, but it's a myth.

[Patrick]

Yeah, I don't really know why or I'd probably have explained it more.

I'm not yet sure that Annachie's rolefishing is a very serious scumtell. I used to have more confidence in it, but the last two newbies doing stuff like this were town.

[Patrick]

Simpor from Cops and Robbers, and JamesThePeach from our last newbie game. Simpor pretty much asked someone to speculate on whether or not someone else had a powerole, whereas James was more speculating about someone's role himself.

[Patrick]

It was I who first mentioned herd's random vote. I merely questioned it, I did not call it scummy. I was a little inquisitive because it came after there was already content, and some proper votes and I wanted to check it was random and why it occured. I was happy with the explanation although I did not like it.

Yeah, I don't have a problem with your initial calling him out on it then withdrawing suspicion, which seemed natural enough to me. The Darth and Annachie comments on it which both expressed suspicion of it for unexplained reasons struck me as more opportunistic.

I'm wavering on ksen, too. His boberz vote is terrible but I'm not sure what he'd be trying to achieve by it as scum; I'd expect him to stick to more popular targets. It's hard to tell whether he put that much thought into it, but it does make me wonder. His vote on Yarmond is consistent with what I saw from him in his other games, where I read him stating at least once that lynching scum day 1 is unlikely and that removing someone unhelpful is the best idea. If ksen is scum, I'd see it as a slight something in Yarmond's favour. I think ksen as scum would be more likely to pursue his policy against an easy townie than his partner.

Unvote

.

Vote: herd

. Currently my best suspect, and more suspicious than either Annachie or Darth imo, especially after his last post. I am interested in both their replies to a few questions when they post again though.

boberz - if you were still looking for a third answer, I don't think bad theory is inherently scummy. An example would be a completely new player suggesting no lynch on day 1, which is a clearly bad idea, but gets suggested by a decent number of townies and is probably a null tell.

Was there anything in particular about herd's last post that made you feel better about him?

[Patrick]

Annoying how? Do you have a gut feeling he's town or something?

[Patrick]

Patrick a while ago you had a ksen/herd scum theory, is it still on? was it a read on each seperately or was it a joint read on two dodgyish people.

Joint read plus the tone of herd's comments towards ksen's lack of content seemed relatively lenient compared to what he said about Annachie's lack of content. He's explained why he saw Annachie as worse, and though I completely disagree that asking for an opinion on something without having given one yourself is scummy, I can at least see it as somewhat plausible for someone to think. It's still a possibility that they're scum together, but nothing special. Having said that, I'd like ksen to explain how he decided that herd has been more active than I have.

I may have more to add later, but dashing out now.

[Patrick]

Well, I think they're both almost certainly town. I guess Incog if you forced me to pick, but I don't see it as a question I can usefully answer.

[Patrick]

I had a similar reaction, but dismissed it since the question really just amounts to asking for opinions on two other players. It can be answered without any manufacturing of reasons, for example as I did.

[Patrick]

boberz, do you have some particular reason to suspect either myself or Incognito? You seem to want to imply suspicion without really saying anything. Paranoia of experienced players is not a point, and none of us are particularly hard players to read. If you've got something to say then say it, it's not like there's alot going on.

[Patrick]

And seriously, what's the point of presenting thoughts in this way?

What do we each think Yarmond's successor will make of this game so far, if he reads for the first time before he knows his role?

I think that if he is a good player he will notice that some people have made judgements and will have to explain themselves if they are wrong. Other people have avoided making too many hard judgements, or give themselves a get out clause when they do (I hope most can work out the people I am taling to)

[Patrick]

Eh, a quick read of this leaves me with the feeling that boberz is still town, even though that post last night rubbed me the wrong way. I'll have a chance to sit down and read more closely tonight when I get back. But I think the metagaming looks more like protown effort.

[Patrick]

Can I do that tommorow, I have had two days that were practically all nighters because of a couple of submissions I had. I have the answer which is basically i think none of them contribute much to scumhunting (i will elabortate on the extents) but ksen chats crap creating white noise, he has also has been advised more than the others on trying to improve. His mad vote on me may be a factor, but i have to read back because if i remember correctly you and patrick thought that was more scummy than me. I wil give a better answer tomorow (ie ill check my facts and chronology)

In fact, I don't think his vote on you was scummy. I said that I can't think what a scum motivation for it would be since scum tend to prefer to attack easy targets rather than people who are being widely called town. I'm not at all convinced ksen is town, so I don't mind your pressure on him, but I think herd is more likely to be scum, and others are iffy and owe us more content (Darth, Annachie).

I like the question to the experienced trio, who of the 3 do you think is the most scummy. I'm not sure I like the answers though. Odds say that there's a 58% chance that at least 1 out of any 3 players is scum. Also the comment that one of you has only ever played scum as a replacement. You're due Twisted Evil

What did you dislike about the answers? I don't particularly like the rest of this since the 58% is true of any three players (and only at the start when we have no info) while the other bit is just a gamblers fallacy (though I'm guessing not seriously). Was there some reason to put that in?

Why do you think herd's random vote was more likely to be done by scum?

[Patrick]

Mod

: Did Darth give a reason for wanting to be replaced? Not sure I'll read much into it but we might as well check. Also, please prod herd.

I'm feeling a bit wishy washy about my suspects, maybe because most of what's been happening recently feels town-town to me while scummier people aren't posting. Herd still seems very under the radar and some of what he's posted feels awkward. I want him on record about what's happened recently. Darth hasn't impressed me but I still lean more towards "need more content" than "this guy's scum".

Patrick, Ether, Incog: With 3 votes sitting on Darth what chance would you (normally) expect that at least one of them was placed by one of the scum?

Well, "normally" would simply mean the statistical chance (which I'm too lazy to work out atm). In this case I see Ether and Incognito as town and ksen as possibly scum. If ksen is scum I think DarthRandall becomes less likely, because of ksen's choice of vote in post 164. Since he laid out suspicions on herd and Annachie as well as I think he'd have been more likely to go with one of those if he was scum partnered with Darth. I don't have a problem with the wagon, though if I had to choose someone to kill now it would be herd.

I'd say a good to better than good chance for both. (Scum on the vote and there being a difference)

Who do you think is scum on the wagon? Also:

Why do you think herd's random vote was more likely to be done by scum?

As far as I can tell this was never explained.

For the record, I don't have a problem with Incognito not answering boberz's question. I don't think it needs to be pressed.

[Patrick]

That's not the first case of someone doing that. To take a recent example, did it bother you when Incognito and Ether both preferred not to answer boberz's question?

Hi Ray. Looking forward to hearing what you have to say.

[Patrick]

Mod

: Did you prod herd? Maybe Ether could do with one as well.

And welcome to the game Tyrope. With regards to herd, I agree that he's been too quiet though I don't really dig your other reason for attacking him. Do you feel expressing high level of certainty is scummy generally or was it something about this case? Is there some kind of ordering or chronology to your notepad section? One or two things are wrong there, for example Incognito's read on ksen seems more town than neutral, Ether's comment on one of me and Incognito being scum was a joke.

ofc this is not like my solid theory, but most of the time (even with "moles" in the group) majority is mostly right, maybe I miss-wrote it though, I'm getting the same vibes too.

Generally this is a risky assumption. Most lynches require a majority and mislynches occur often, which shows that the majority isn't mostly right. One thing any protown player has to do is strike a balance between listening to others and going with their own reads. Too much either way is bad.

Annachie: how do you feel that Incognito's vote on Darth/Ray was too much pressure for him to stand or fall on his own? He can still give his thoughts regardless.

And now I find myself Sarnath'd on some points. Though I don't really feel that Ray has been that slow yet.

[Patrick]

Patrick, I suppose it's more my sense of being fair to people (replacements) especially as they may have taken over from a dill. Incog's opinion makes me wonder if I should though.

Sarnath'd?

Well, it's fair to allow a replacement a courtesy period to get caught up with the game, almost regardless of your read on their predecessor, but that doesn't mean their actions are wiped clean. In this case I don't think a third vote was excessive pressure since it's more likely to cause him trouble as scum than as town, and it doesn't put him in danger of being lynched. Your thoughts on this strike me as reasonably genuine though.

Being Sarnath'd means that someone gets in before you with some of your thoughts, usually very close in time to when you're writing them up.

Not much of a read on Tyrope yet. His reads struck me as fairly neutral heavy, but not in a scummy way.

In the last three pages I have begun to struggle, I feel we almost lost an oppurtunity there. I read through the second half of this game again and I think it is possible a scum has successfully removed pressure from one or both of them. I am going to explore that by looking closely at voting patterns and statemtn patterns within the voting posts, people are more vulnerable when they are posting i think.

Can't say I've felt this way, maybe because Ether and Incognito feel like the two who've done this most and I'm reading them both as town. Though I do feel just a little lonely on herd. It sort of feels like he's slipped out of the limelight by virtue of not having been posting. I haven't seen him online so I don't know whether or not he's lurking. Still awaiting starkmoon's cooperation here.

I look forward to Ray's post. I didn't know he'd stalked me as well

[Patrick]

Annachie's vote for Ether kind of blows by mind. I don't necessarily think it's scummy though I agree he looks like he decided on his vote then went and looked for reasons to justify it. I could see it as a genuine thought process coming from someone who thinks expressing certainty is scummy and then padding out the vote with other stuff.

I don't think I like anything Ray has posted so far.

Not really. I'm satisfied with my vote on Darth/RayFrost. The only people I could see possibly switching my vote to at this point is either Herd or Annachie.

Right now it just seems like we are spinning our wheels until the day is over.

Disagree completely, and if nothing else we need to get RayFrost on record (and more from the other replacement, Tryope). At what point do you feel this day started becoming pointless?

[Patrick]

Well, his reads of people would be a good start. You must think it's worthwhile too if you're asking him about his boberz suspicion? It's not as though we need to lynch someone immediately.

[Patrick]

For me, the players here fit into three categories.

People I'm somewhat suspicious of are herd and RayFrost. Herd I don't really have a case against other than what I've said about his posts already. He lurked and didn't add much to the game, and some of his posts felt pretty scummy. Ray seems like he's been more interested in making excuses than catching up and adding some content to the game, and his one comment so far is pretty much the opposite of how I felt about boberz's case against Incognito. Ray, do you think stretching is scummy on page 1? Misinterpretation? I'm not convinced there was any deliberate misrep there. I could conceivably see them both being scum, and looking back, herd's only commentary on Darth seems a bit weird:

Randal seems to have essentially repeated what everyone else had already said in his last post, which obviously isn't helpful. I guess it could be seen as scummy not to post original stuff but just to summarize and make it look like you're adding to the discussion, but I don't know. I'm not sure, but is it usually a tell if someone puts a "pressure vote" on an inactive player? It seems as though it might be a bit protown, but I don't know.

If he comes back, which seems unlikely, I'd like him to explain the thought in the last sentence.

Ksen, Annachie and Tyrope and all kind of middling, and quite hard to get a handle on. Ksen has a few moments where he sounds genuine and pretty misguided, but still seems lacking in curiosity as well, and not in the same waffly way that I've seen from some newbie town. If I'm dead overnight and he's around later, don't write him off just based on one or two tells. Annachie I keep going back and forth on. I think many of his suspicions are way off and he seems overely obsessed with the three experienced players, but looking at some of his questioning there is a certain level of consistency to it and nothing obvious to make me think he's insincere. One thing I don't like:

Can you honestly tell me that no-one has ever questioned you for using definitave statements about someone being town. Especially when based on a players say so?

Just a gut feeling about this. Why does it matter?

Tyrope is still pretty much neutral to me, though I'd like to see his thoughts on recent events too. If I had to venture a guess I'd put ksen above Annachie and Tryrope in suspicion, though unless something changes I don't think any of these guys would be a good lynch today.

Ether, Incognito and boberz still all seem town. I'm more confident in the two I have meta on. boberz's theory seems like a lot of words without much conclusion. It would probably help if he named some names instead of just saying that scum could have tried to turn off the pressure on herd and ksen. For example, if herd is scum, who's a candidate for scum trying this subtle strategy? What if ksen is scum? I'd probably look at boberz again if Ray is lynched as scum, but I still think he's done several things that newbie-scum wouldn't do (like the initial attack on Incog to start with). Overall I'd be surprised if he's scum.

Vote stands for now. Could change depending on what I see from RayFrost.

[Patrick]

The plan is not elaborate, clever but not elaborate. It involves taking pressure off your scum partner, to cover it take pressure off another player aswell. It is not a complex play.

Is this something you've experienced before in FTF? Personally I don't think I can recall an example of scum thinking like this.

Caveat: Whilst I definately consider this (this game sounds ever more like an eco essay now) a scumside factor it could still be town who do it, because they would not want to incriminate themselves by removing pressure from one person, and remove it from both. I think this is a bad idea for town but could see why they would do it.

Town is more likely to just take pressure of anyone who they don't think it's warranted on or who they become less suspicious of. It's not inherently scummy to take pressure off one or more people.

Are ksen and herd your top two suspects?

[Patrick]

What made you see his post accusing you as slightly town? It seemed pretty counter-intuitive to me.

[Patrick]

Patrick, since I notice that you are currently modding a game, what's your opinion on this?

It's a fair point. I don't want to put too much stock in it because I think it's also possible starkmoon remembered to replace DarthRandal first just because his direct request was fresher in her mind. But it is in his favour.

As a general thing, the "how to be a good IC" guide I linked to in my modded game is just a standard thing as part of the intro and not necessarily something I agree with every word of. For example, I don't see anything wrong with IC-scum lying about game theory, as long as it's covered postgame to make sure people don't go into their next games with alot of wrong ideas.

Post 375 seems pretty genuine (I think it's more of a statement than a question to someone). Boberz's post immediately after doesn't look like a Ray/boberz type post to me. I think he'd want to keep Annachie as a lynch option if that was the case (though I don't really agree with his reason for disassociating them). I really quite like the herd/Ray theory at this point, and would like to see a claim from RayFrost if he plans on doing so at all.

Welcome to the game Yankee. Do you really feel boberz was trying to make his unvote of RayFrost go unnoticed by putting in an extra line's gap? That seems like a stretch to me.

[Patrick]

EBWOP: First part is in Tyrope's favour, in case that's worded confusingly.

[Patrick]

I didn't find the vote and unvote of RayFrost particularly scummy. I saw it as an attempt to get reactions and show his suspicion of RayFrost but without leaving him at lynch-1.

[Patrick]

Rex, cheeky

[Patrick]

I intend to vote RayFrost as soon as Yankee has had a chance to catch up. He feels to me like scum who's given up, as he's been plenty active elsewhere.

[Patrick]

I'm happy enough to move forward with this.

Unvote, Vote: RayFrost

[Patrick]

I'm tempted to just get back on herd/Yankee/whoever it is, as he's my clearest scummy read atm, but I haven't really reread anything yet. From memory, the herd/Annachie interaction didn't strike me as a "they're definitely not scum together" type of thing. Yankee/ksen seems reasonable to me until I start wondering why Incognito was nightkilled. He's an experienced player who most people read as town, but if that's the pairing it seems like killing either me or Ether or boberz would be more logical. Dunno. I think atm we need more info from Tryope, he hasn't done anything to rub me the wrong way, but that may be just because he hasn't done much at all. At this point I still feel Ether and boberz are town, and therefore the scum can be found in the other four. Will read up for some more detail tonight or over the weekend.

Based on what Yankee just posted, I guess Concerned shouldn't waste his time reading.

[Patrick]

I'm tempted to vote Yankee/concerned, but it's too soon and I don't want to L-2 him this quickly, as the scummy's can then take 2 weeks from our deadline.

Only possible if Yankee is town. Do you think scum would take the chance to quicklynch if that's the case? (Also, your vote would only be lynch-3).

Agreed that Annachie should explain his vote. I can't see a reason for it, nor even the questioning really since Annachie himself seemed satisfied on that issue yesterday.

[Patrick]

Anyways, can someone please lay out the case on me, I do not see what I have done that is so scummy, although I cant defend against things Herd has done (although reading back I dont see anything he did particularly scummy either). Just curious why I am the top suspect, even though I did expect it from ethers post yesterday. The only post i see even somewhat accusing me of anything scummy is in Patricks post about me last page and his reasons seem kind of like WIFOM and the only defense I can post is a WIFOM defense, which I won't do because it would be pointless.

My suspicions are pretty much about herd rather than you, though your attack on boberz's vote/unvote of Ray wasn't great. I realise you can't explain things on herd's behalf, but you still have the same role as him, and it's currently the only role that hasn't given me some kind of reason to think it's town. Looking at your posts, can you elaborate on what you felt/feel the case against Annachie is (this mentioned in your 393)? Also, what are your reads on people now?

[Patrick]

Also, I'm not sure what you mean when you say I attacked you last page with WIFOMy reasons. I think you must have misread my comments on the Incognito nightkill.

[Patrick]

Patrick, do you think it's worth speculating on the NK?

Sometimes. Nightkill speculation isn't automatically useless, but I generally don't let it dictate my suspicion either.

@Yankee, I get the impression you're not reading closely, because I never suggested that the nightkill incriminates you, nor even that it incriminates anyone. I said that if the scumgroup is Yankee/ksen, it seems like killing any of Patrick/Ether/boberz would have been more logical. As to your question, I think both Ether and boberz are town, for reasons explained already. Ksen and Annachie have both struck me as scummy at times and genuine sounding at others. Tyrope hasn't written anything that's given me a town vibe, but still has Incognito's point about the late replacement in his favour. Your claim to have mixed up Annachie and boberz doesn't entirely convince me since your post 393 seems pretty clear that you know 391 was made by boberz and not Annachie, though I suppose fast reading and the hour could explain it.

Something about the wagon on Yankee today makes me uncomfortable, though I really can't articulate why at the moment.

[Patrick]

Can you explain why Ether looks scummier due to recent events? I get the impression you just agreed with boberz without having a clue what he's taking about. At any rate, I don't follow the thought process in the quote at all, but I'd prefer you to explain first.

Mod

: Prod Ether please.

[Patrick]

When I read Tyrope's 498 I thought he was agreeing with boberz's thought process about the nightkill making Ether looking scummier. Actually, looking again it still reads that way. I don't like Tyrope's points against Ether. I feel like if he found that type of pushiness from Ether scummy, he'd have found it scummy a long time ago since it's basically part of her playstyle and she's been pushy all game. I also can't see any particular scum motive for disassociating herd and Annachie; how would that benefit her as scum whether she was partnered with one of them or not? These points just seem kind of contrived to me.

Patrick, give me my cue and I will give the explanation on the quote, it is sound but trivial with respect to ethers townishness elsewhere dont think i am slaughtering her for this, it is again held on an assumption.

The thought process lost me somewhere just before the second line. I think you're reading too much into the nightkill.

[Patrick]

Odd question, I'll humour it since I'm assuming you're going to explain. My opinion of her hasn't really changed. If I have to go one way, then less because two other players have since flipped town. But that applies to everyone.

[Patrick]

I've let this slip a bit lately, will read the recent stuff more closely tomorrow. Maybe I'm developing a bias, but I got a bad vibe from Tyrope's last post. I don't think what he's saying about Yankee is true.

Annachie and Tyrope, is OMGUS scummy?

[Patrick]

This game feels slower lately, and with christmas coming up I don't see it getting better anytime soon. I'd like to see more from Ether, or at least an acknowledgement that she'll get to it after her exam on Monday.

Reading today again, my unease with the Yankee wagon comes mostly from Annachie's vote. I agree that Yankee was factually wrong in saying that Ether was the only person suspicious of him yesterday, but I pretty much get what he was saying - that Ether seemed the most aggressive towards him. This just seems like an odd reason for Annachie to vote him. I could potentially see an Annachie/Tyrope here, with both going after what would presumably be the most obvious target for a lynch, and each listing the other in second place. Tyrope has been looking scummier to me lately but something about Annachie keeps making me hesitate. Post 375 still doesn't seem to me like the type of post that a newbie-scum would make if he was trying to discredit Ether. It's an observation that I don't think anyone had brought up, and suggests to me he's been metagaming with a view to discerning alignments. Yankee, I'm still not wild about, albeit his posts today make sense. ksen's posting seems ok to me lately, and the nightkill makes him a bit less likely to be scum. I'd rate him as 4th on my list right now.

I'm going to

Vote: Tyrope

, as he's the person I'd feel best about lynching if we had to now. If he's scum, I think I'd guess at his partner being Annachie, Yankee, ksen in descending order.

For the record, I don't feel as though Yankee's vote on Tyrope was particularly OMGUSy. He has given reasons, and I got the impression he was suspicious of Tyrope near the start of the day.

[Patrick]

A fallguy is someone who the scum plan to mislynch. I kind of caught a whiff of that earlier in the day too.

[Patrick]

Yankee's question makes sense from a town perspective as well.

Mod

: You missed my vote for Tyrope in your votecount.

boberz, can you elaborate on "Tyrope is the best kill on paper" and "the most logical kill is you [Anmachie]"? On an individual level Tyrope seems scummier to me than Annachie. Annachie at least sometimes makes posts that make me feel he's genuinely looking for scum, Tyrope seems more like he's playing with the aim of blending in. I see that as more of a scum mindset, though it is true that townies sometimes do it as well (wrongly).

[Patrick]

It looks to me like he's saying that you and Yankee are scum and he doesn't mind being lynched as long as we get the two of you after.

Either Annachie is town or craftier than I expected. I'll look more closely at the voting between Yankee and Tyrope later.

[Patrick]

Looking back, a Tyrope/Yankee pair does seem rather unlikely.

ksen, what's your read on Tyrope?

[Patrick]

boberz, you asked for a second opinion on Tyrope from one of your town reads. I've made my opinion of him clear overall so I'm assuming you're talking about his last few posts. His lack of giving reads on anyone is weird but could easily be caused by being busy with christmas and perhaps a loss of morale as either alignment. I don't think his naming of a favourite animal indicates fear or really anything about his alignment; all it tells me is that he read your post. One thing I'm not keen on is his weakish attack on Yankee is post 554. It just seems weird to me to suggest someone else may be faking a vacation during the christmas period, in the post straight after he himself posted about his own V/LA coming up.

That said, your grilling of him looks genuine and more or less convinces me you're town. I think I agree that if Tyrope is scum then Annachie is his most likely partner, I find that slightly dissatisfying because Annachie doesn't read particularly scummy to me overall, but there are reasons against pretty much all pairings and we know a pairing exists, so. Yankee/Tyrope doesn't seem likely to me, ksen/Tyrope doesn't seem likely to me based on what I mentioned yesterday about ksen trying to lynch Yarmond.

In other news, Ether needs to post. I know she's no busier over christmas than she would be normally, and I agree we shouldn't progress to any lynch without hearing from her.

Pure anti-prod as I don't have anything much to add until the vote resolves.
But I am following along.

Vote resolves, meaning a lynch?

[Patrick]

A no-lynch would put us to the point where one mislynch would lose us the game. No sense in that.

boberz, do you think Tyrope is townish based on his recent posts?

[Patrick]

Merry christmas to all.

Mod

still needs to prod Ether or give us a status update or something.

scum on herd from an early stage, which I'd imagine is obvious from my posts. What leads you to reading herd's play as townish?

no sense in holding thoughts back for the reason you've given, the low activity is caused mainly by the holiday season and I don't see how that leads to scum getting more information than town from what's posted.

[Patrick]

Guys, I'm failing to see how a discussion of who we think is going to be nightkilled next could possibly be useful. All it does is give advice to scum, and possibly introduce WIFOM (yes, I'm using the term WIFOM) when someone does die. Especially if you say stuff like, "if X is scum, I think they'll kill Y". Why do it?

[Patrick]

Ok, so we're stagnating and currently sitting at a 2-2-2 votecount. I could settle for an Annachie lynch, as I don't really have a good pairings based argument for killing Tyrope first, but Tyrope still reads scummier to me. I wouldn't support a Yankee lynch. Ether needs to place a vote;

mod

should prod her on aim if needed. I'd do it myself but I'm not sure it's allowed.

boberz, are you thinking Yankee/Annachie is more likely than Yankee/Tyrope? I'm not sure which I'd put higher, maybe hampered by the fact that I don't see either as likely.

[Patrick]

She's fine and has perfect access; I've been talking to her most days. I meant that I don't think a player is allowed to prod another player and tell them to post.

[Patrick]

I'd be happy enough with a hammer now. I will say that although I'm still inclined to think Ether is town, she absolutely needs to be replaced or kicked hard tomorrow if she's still around. If she somehow is scum she can't be allowed to say nothing, and if she's town her vote and insight is needed, especially if it's lylo. Annachie's vote on Tyrope hasn't really affected my read of him either way; I think if he's scum with him then he'll have realised by now that he can't get Yankee lynched today, but it would also be a reasonable move for town.

[Patrick]

Quick thing before work. It is possible that scum sent in a no-kill choice, but highly unlikely. I'm not sure why they would. I wonder if boberz is thinking what I am.

Mod absolutely needs to replace Ether if she hasn't been responding. We need that resolved one way or the other early on today.

I'm still thinking boberz and Ether are town, but as we're in lylo I'm going to have to reread to check this.

[Patrick]

boberz, your vote for me makes no sense.

The lack of pressure on ksen is the fault of everyone except ether and I. The only person that is a scumside factor for is patrick.

No idea where this came from. First I'm not sure how a lack of pressure on ksen needs to even be somebody's "fault" - that seems to me only true if ksen is scum. I feel like we discussed something similar to this on day 1. How exactly did you decide that everyone except you and Ether are to blame? How is that supposed to reflect badly on me?

Patrick, if I search I can find loads of things, most importantly one in the beggining of day 2. As I say I can stretch to find loads but that would be unfair. He never asked me to explain an important point on incog's mod wifom. I think he is scum because of some night analysis I have.

If by mod wifom you're talking about Incognito's nightkill, I think I actually did ask you to explain your thought process but didn't push for more later. I'm generally more interested in looking at my suspects than I am in people who I think are town, and didn't see it as that useful to get into a detailed argument about why you thought the Incognito nightkill reflected badly on Ether, especially when you gave Ether as likely town anyway. I suspect you can only find "loads of things" by severe stretches of the imagination, given that I was pretty much bottom of your list yesterday and not high on it day 1.

Interestingly it toook incog a very long time to clear patrick he is is a posssible dont think incog asserted his innocence strongly.

Bullshit. You cannot possibly have looked back at his posts. Let's see what his most recent opinion of me was:

Patrick - I was going up and down with him initially, but at the moment I think he's very likely town.

He even later labelled me as pretty obvtown and pointed out our thinking the same thing at the exact same time; a typical sign that we're both town. Are you really trying to cast doubt on me because Incognito died night 1? Even your vote for me makes no sense given your comments about pairings.

I think it unlikely scum would no-kill in this situation. Scum don't generally pass on the possbility to get rid of someone they're afraid of or to have a chance at killing a powerole. I don't think I've ever seen it happen in a game like this outside of maybe 4 man endgames or simply scum accidentally missing a kill.

I'm not sure how much else to say yet. I think having a cop claim if one exists would be a good idea. I find boberz's sudden irrationality worrying, somehow moreso because I think he's town.

[Patrick]

Boberz, you said you're looking at Patrick/Annachie/ksen for scum, and you said that you'd be surprised by a Patrick/ksen scumteam, so yeah, I don't think your vote would make much sense even if all the stuff you made up to suspect me was true.

I don't remember Incognito having a theory that herd was scum for being replaced quickly. Quote it, please. I can't even tell whether or not you're implying suspicion of me because Incognito didn't immediately read me as town, but if you are, it's ridiculous. Do I really need to dig up games where Incognito didn't read me as town for a while?

About Tyrope, I'm disappointed that he was town, but I don't think he was a bad lynch, and I'd do it again. I'm not sure how you can attack me for pushing a Tyrope lynch when you were apparently certain he was scum yourself, but whatever.

Yankee's unforced claim makes me feel better about his alignment, though I would recommend nobody else claims just yet. I don't understand the talk about allowing scum more time to concoct a fakeclaim; this isn't FTF mafia, scum have had practically all the time in the world to decide what they're going to do, and it's not as though they have hundreds of different claims they could make.

[Patrick]

Sorry not herd, darth. I forgot who replaced who momentarily point stands.

I don't remember him saying this. He did make a point in Tyrope's favour based on replacements, which I commented on, but I don't remember him using that as a point against RayFrost. Again, quote it please.

I am implying some suspicion on you because incog cleared you a lot later than he did ether. But it was not my main point as is still not.

Disgusting reason for suspicion.

I'm inclined to think Annachie is scum with ksen or Yankee. That may or may not change depending on what what happens claims-wise. I would still kind of prefer if we start with asking any existing cop to claim rather than just claiming willy-nilly, though if this goes on it may not make any difference.

[Patrick]

Yankee scum does not necessarily imply that Ether is scum.

To say I'm more likely to be scum because it took Incognito a couple of weeks to read me as town is stupid. It also goes directly against you saying that you place alot of importance in what Incognito says, because you're going exactly against what he said ("very likely town" and "pretty obvtown" seems pretty forceful to me). If you're town then you really need to take a step back and think about what you're saying because your argument here is completely backward.

[Patrick]

Well, I'd like Annachie to give his initial impressions about alignment not just claim strategy.

boberz, I tend to prioritise responding to attacks, especially bad ones and especially ones in lylo. If you're going to post things with the intention of annoying me, you can expect an aggressive response. If you just pull out "no u know Im right patrick" whenever you can't think of a good argument, you can expect an aggressive response. I've stated my initial impressions about alignments. Right now I'm tired and pissed off about more than one thing, and don't have the time or the patience to read the thread to try and decide which of my suggestions is more likely, especially when it could all be changed depending on cop/not cop claim (in case not obvious, I'm not a cop). I also get mixed feelings from today since Yankee's play is the more consistent with being a partner to Annachie but his play also has what I think is a town sign. I think I get your 1 of 3 thing but it seems premature right now.

[Patrick]

Ok, this is almost certainly going to have to happen anyway, I'm vanilla.

@Yankee: Here's how I see it. I think we likely have a doctor who stopped a kill last night. If we mislynch now, we lose unless the doctor can stop the next scum nightkill, which is impossible if the doctor has claimed. For that reason I could see some situations where it would be better to keep the doctor hidden by not having anyone claim doc/not doc. I think it would have been at least better for us to get people on record with this and first establish whether or not we have a cop before just having people claiming all over the place; I couldn't see a downside to at least discussing it. I'd like you to explain why you feel all these claims immediately was a better claim strategy and why you find me and ksen scummy based on it because at the moment I really don't see what you're arguing. Also in case you hadn't noticed, boberz has claimed vanilla.

INteresting, why would this happen. I have a theory.
Patrick can you shed any lighht on this. Is she unwell, or busy or anything else.

She's around. She's just flaked from the game which is something she does semi-often. I doubt she's scum, though I'm starting to doubt a previous thought as well.

[Patrick]

Interesting stuff. I agree that Ether's replacement needs to claim. They can do so before reading the game. boberz, I guess that'll throw some light on yesterday's theory.

ksen's night 1 choice is rather weird and convenient. If he's scum then I don't think his clearing of Yankee makes Yankee obvscum, but it is a possibility. Yankee, what leads you to believe his claim if there isn't a counterclaim?

If ksen is telling the truth that leaves me with 2 scum in Annachie/boberz/Ether's replacement, which is possible but means I would have misread at least one player.

boberz, what makes you think that if ksen is scum his partner is most likely Annachie? I think Yankee would be more likely there, as it would at least explain why ksen would gambit.

I'm semi VLA this weekend, playing in a chess tournament.

[Patrick]

Totally exhausted right now, reading what's been posted since I left makes me lean towards ksen being scum, tomorrow I'll have an earlier finish so should be able to make a more thought out post then.

[Patrick]

ksen feels like scum to me from his responses, but not because of what boberz just posted:

I am going to claim cop for ether, because that is what i think the spot is and with holes being exposed in ksen's claim it is ever more possible.

I think it would have been better to stay silent on this until the replacement claims. The thing is, as was mentioned before, the scum know whether or not a cop exists if they attempted a kill. If scum know there is a cop, they might be pretty wary of claiming cop themselves which is why I'm actually not sold on this theory right now. If ksen is fakeclaiming scum, my guess would be that he did it knowing he wouldn't be counterclaimed. Of course, we can get some answers when the replacement shows up.

Can you explain 'gambit' please? from what i know of it, in this situation would be attached to much too much wifom for me to think about, but i misunderstand it a bit.

You mean the meaning of the word, or something? A gambit is usually trying something a little risky in the hope of gaining a greater reward. In this specific case, I don't see ksen as being especially devious, and I could see him as scum trying to "clear" his partner to try and win today. If he's fakeclaiming scum with someone else as his partner, it's a bit harder for me to see his motivation, though I suppose it's possible he and Annachie could have decided to bus each other today. Other pairings involving ksen I see as less likely.

Basically i have noticed lots of paralells with f2f games. Firstly compassionate killing, incog seemed genuinely pleased to have time to revise, I sense his friends (Patrick) may have chosen to kill him rather than ether for that reason.

I am now convinced you're living on another planet.

I also think ether may have deliberately not told us what was going on because she knows what is going on and is interested in the game wihthout her knowledge.

This would make sense for a silence, not for getting replaced. My guess is she was doing her normal thing of procrastinating without going one way of the other (getting caught up OR requesting replacement). It's annoying, but wouldn't be the first time.

I went looking at Annachie's other games, and he's requested replacement there too. It seems to be connected to this. This is just another player trying to metagame Annachie based on ongoing games, which is no reason at all for Annachie to replace out of anything. It doesn't say anything about his alignment in other games.

Mod/Annachie

: Thoughts on this?

Welcome evilgorrilaz.

[Patrick]

Welcome blagZor. I have followed a few games you've played, with the first one being the most entertaining.

No-lynching is ok pending Evil claim. I'm not convinced it'll make a big difference, but it is a conventional play with even numbers. I think Zorblag suggesting no talking today is a null-tell though admittedly may help him a little if he's scum. I can dig it as I assume he'll contribute heavily tomorrow if still alive. At this point I'm not especially worried about the votes because from my perspective only a Zorblag/Evil scumteam could hammer, which I find unlikely. Even more unlikely now with Zorblag asking everyone to take votes off. I'm not too sure why boberz insists on leaving the vote on if he's in favour of no-lynching anyway.

Evilgorrilaz, what do you think we should be doing today?

[Patrick]

Actually I think most of us have acknowledged it already. Is there some harm in seeing whether or not Evilgorrilaz claims cop?

[Patrick]

I'm not sure where you got that idea. Personally I think ksen is scum because his choice night 1 looks suspect and his responses read more like scum who doesn't have any good answer than a town cop in lylo. This isn't conditional on Evilgorrilaz claiming cop, and I think I said that if ksen is fakeclaiming scum, I expect it's because he knows there isn't a cop.

[Patrick]

Response to prod. Still not much to do until Evil claims - you don't need to catch up to do that.

[Patrick]

Welcome McGriddle. We've been through a massclaim, and we're basically waiting for your role slot to claim before we no-lynch. (Evilgorrilaz was sadly incapable of doing this). The best part to read first might be from page 26 which is today if you want to confirm that that's what we're doing.

[Patrick]

ksen, result?

Based on boberz's posts I would guess he protected (and likely stopped a kill on) Ether night 2. I think ksen is scum with one of the other two. If ksen is town then the scumgroup must be Zorblag/McGriddle, which clashes with my read of Ether. I'll be back with more when I have the time.

[Patrick]

boberz made no secret of the fact that he thought Ether's role slot was a cop. He even went as far as to claim the role on her behalf. The question is whether he thought that on day 2, and I think he did. He referenced himself hinting at it on day 2 and his reason for thinking Ether was a cop:

The reason I think this is because she said she was PROBABLY going to go in hard on yankee on day 2, she then subtly eliminated him from her reads, ie suggested that it wasnt yankee and tyrope, reason giving they were bickering (they werent bickering much really) nobody seemed to check this other than me.

Is something that happened on day 2. I guess it is possible that this suddenly occurred to him day 3 only, but reading his posts, I don't think so. I would certainly expect a doctor to protect someone who they thought was a cop in a newbie game. Zorblag, do you feel boberz wasn't reading Ether as a cop day 2 / night 2, or do you think he might have chosen to protect someone other than a suspected cop? I think it's much less likely Yankee was protected. I also think it less likely scum would try to kill a protown Yankee.

Zorblag, what's your opinion on ksen's claim?

[Patrick]

I think the fact that Ksen has a vote on him and isn't dead means he is our scum, or Yankee is and his scum buddy is waiting for one more vote to hammer and win. So my 2 top suspects are Ksen and Yankee. But I just can't figure out which one of them it is.

Have you read the whole game? Ksen has claimed cop with an innocent result on Yankee, so there's no chance that Yankee could be scum hoping to quicklynch town-ksen.

@Zorblag, boberz's reasons for having Yankee low on his list seem to be based on the likely belief that Ether was a cop with an innocent on him. The percentage list you quoted came after ksen had claimed cop himself. If boberz was expecting Ether to claim cop with an innocent on Yankee as well, his percentage for Yankee seems to me to make perfect sense. I agree his percentage for Ether looks a little high, but as I said yesterday I think he was being unreasonably paranoid about the possibility of scum no-killing, something which he said was common, but in my experience isn't in newbie games. I find it less likely that scum would try to kill Yankee night 2 or that boberz would expect anything of the kind; scum tend to go after experienced players and players who are generally seen as town, neither of which fitted for Yankee.

[Patrick]

@Patrick, one problem that I have with the boberz successfully protected Ether argument is that I don't see why boberz should be assuming that Ether got an innocent on Yankee. I can see what you're saying about wanting to protect someone he thought was a cop and I can see why he thought that Ether would investigate Yankee in particular but why would he think that the result would be an innocent?

I'm very confused here. boberz's theory was that Ether was a cop who investigated Yankee innocent on

night 1

. The phrasing of your comments seems like you think we're talking about night 2. It's very clear why boberz thought Ether had an innocent on Yankee night 1; she backed off him day 2 and indeed defended him without any critisism, even though she was suspicious of him day 1. If she'd got a guilty result on night 1 she would obviously have pushed his lynch hard, not defended him. Can you clarify?

I disagree about IC's and my experience of newbie games is that they get nightkilled more often. I think it's because on the whole they tend to be harder for scum to lynch and they tend to scumhunt better than newbies, and I would still be surprised if scum attempted a kill on Yankee night 2 (though I agree if it wasn't Ether it's probably Yankee).

Patrick is and has been around though, and I can see what he's been doing. He's already invested some time and energy into a town read on Ether. It would be easier for him, were he scum, to justify pushing a lynch on you at this point than it would be for him to justify pushing a lynch on Ether (well, now McGriddle, I suppose.) If we simply go with his initial Ether was the protection target without examining it then we're potentially playing right into the endgame that scum are looking for.

I've read Ether as town all game, though it's nice to have it painted as a crafty ploy. I'm not suggesting the idea that Ether was protected should go unexamined, but it seems pretty obviously the most likely possibility and I'm surprised to see so much support for the idea that boberz protected someone else. Clearly we interpret his relationship with Ether differently; I saw him as reading Ether as town on day 2 despite her lurking, and moreso than his read on Yankee. He even stated on day 2 that he thought Yankee wouldn't be a likely kill for the exact reasons I've outlined.

I'll also be looking back in more depth when I have time and the site moves faster than smail pace.

[Patrick]

I don't understand your reason for saying this. Why would I be dead now if I wasn't scum?

It's clear enough that if you were town, Yankee would have to be town as well which would mean the scum would have the voting power to lynch you and win. I think they'd have managed it by now if that was the case.

McGriddle, what is it about Yankee that makes you think he's town? I ask because of the my two suspects for ksen's partner I'm still leaning towards it being him. His quick change of mind on ksen's claim for a relatively minor reason seemed weird to me, and I've generally felt like he's being trying very hard to distance himself from ksen since the point where ksen became more or less obvscum. Something about his approach to the "who did boberz protect" debate today makes me uneasy as well; like he was trying to head it off in a way favourable to him because he was afraid I'd bring Zorblag round to what is very likely the right conclusion. Yankee: why do you feel that analysing the words of a dead doctor is any more WIFOM than trying to analyse living players? You're very liberal with the acronym WIFOM, it seems.

[Patrick]

*waves hi* Assuming Zorblag follows suit then ksen will become confirmed scum due to lack of being hammered.

im still here. I have been checking on this game, but there has been nothing to comment on...

Are you trying to find ksen's partner?

McGriddle, have you read the game?

[Patrick]

I am not sure what you mean, but as to why I am suspicious of Patrick now, he tryed to not only stay away from voting ksen who is obvious scum, and turn attention on to Yankee.

This is ridiculous. I think even a cursory read of my play today would show that I'm not trying to defend ksen at all; I've seen him as obvscum too and said as much. I haven't voted ksen yet because I don't see a need to lynch him immediately while I still think we're productive, but I think I've made it obvious that I do want him lynched today. As for talking about Yankee, I'm trying to find ksen's scumbuddy. Do you actually think I'm trying to get Yankee lynched, or are you just posting whatever comes into your head first? I even noted that Yankee can only be scum if ksen is scum, does that strike you as me trying to get Yankee lynched today? Please step up your play and read the game thoroughly, because it's clear from what you said to Zorblag that you haven't.

And I see similar theme with Yankee/Zorblag discussion too. I don't buy the notion that ksen's partner is defending him at all. It seems pretty clear whoever his partner is saw him as a necessary bus today.

Regarding Zorblag, my instinctive reaction is to see his latest posts as townish. I don't know how far to trust that since if he's scum then going for Yankee would make sense after I'd expressed my suspicions, but his questioning of McGriddle about me does seem like something a townie would be concerned about and a scum might prefer to leave out.

[Patrick]

McGriddle, I explained in my last post that I thought there was still something productive to be said, which was why I didn't lynch ksen straight away. I'm not sure why you thought I was putting pressure on you or trying to call for unvotes of ksen, since I stated that ksen is confirmed scum and I think you're the nearest thing we have to a confirmed innocent.

These recent posts have allayed a fear I had. I'm happy to kill ksen now.

Vote: ksen

[Patrick]

I didn't see myself as a particularly likely kill. I thought if you're scum you probably wouldn't kill me and if Zorblag is scum then a kill on me was a possibility but hardly a standout one. I'd like you to explain why you think I should have been killed last night, particularly when McGriddle was virtually confirmed innocent.

I'd also like to rewind to these posts from you on day 2: Post 488, Post 490, Post 494. This was the exchange between us where you thought I was attacking you because Incognito got nightkilled. The general feeling I'm getting from these posts is that you don't think nightkill discussions are useful because they descend into WIFOM. Was that point of view genuine? If so then it bothers me how you immediately open today casting suspicion on me because I haven't been nightkilled.

[Patrick]

@Patrick, how sophisticated and aware a player do you think that Yankee is? Do you think that he was sincere when he mixed up the number of people needed to lynch back on Day Three?

So so. He sometimes seems to skim what people are saying, and overuses the term WIFOM. As for forgetting the number needed to lynch, I'm torn, since on the one hand I can't see any great benefit to scum faking it, but on the other hand if he really thought so I might have expected him to express more concern about a player placing a single vote on another player.

A couple more questions for Yankee.

If you felt that McGriddle had some chance of being scum, why not argue against me and Zorblag thinking that the chance of it was incredibly low? You went fairly quiet on the debate about boberz protection after Zorblag agreed with me.

Why do you feel being defensive and aggressive is scummy?

Zorblag: Yesterday McGriddle's posting towards the end of the day about me was worrying because I felt that scum might choose to keep him alive with me in the hope he'd just vote me in the endgame. That fear went away after your exchange with him because he seemed like he was being more reasonable and seemed to be coming round to the possibility of Yankee being scum, instead of just coming out with meaningless stuff like, "I think Yankee is a cop lolz". At this point I'm still leaning towards Yankee being scum, and the main thing giving me slight pause is that if he is I think an endgame with me and McGriddle would have offered him slightly better chances. I think I could probably have persuaded McGriddle to see reason if that happened, which was why I was ok with the day ending, but people are hard to predict. If you're scum then going to an endgame with me and McGriddle would have put me in a difficult situation, but then again if you're scum the situation is difficult anyway because I'm leaning Yankee.

[Patrick]

Well, you've described alot of what I was thinking, but I see alot of it as less significant. See, if Yankee is scum then his stated opinion of McGriddle is really irrelevant, what matters is whether one of us had any realistic chance of voting McGriddle (I know I wouldn't have, and you also looked like you'd written him off). So I could see a scenario of just killing the pseudo-confirmed innocent here.

Maybe he didn't have a read on where people were in the game (which is tough to buy, especially in my case.)

His last post of yesterday tells us that he didn't know who I suspected.

I also disagree that Yankee wouldn't be sophisticated enough to think of trying to confuse with nightkills; his opening today immediately introduces nightkills (or rather a lack of nightkill on me) as a factor. Actually I think the kill last night would worry more if he'd stuck to his previous opinion that nightkills are basically WIFOM to try and analyse.

Quite rushed, maybe more later.

[Patrick]

@Patrick, well, whether one of us would vote for McGriddle is important but it's also (perhaps more) important who McGriddle would vote for. McGriddle might well have been the most likely player in the game not to vote for Yankee based on what was said up to that point in the game. Yankee's stated opinion matters a bit just in terms of keeping options open for him and on the off chance that whichever of us was left would re-examine.

Who McGriddle would have voted is important, but not what I was debating with this point. I'm saying that the chance of McGriddle being lynched was so tiny that I would call him a virtually confirmed innocent, and I think that any scum who took him into the endgame would be putting all their money on trying to get the other townie lynched rather than McGriddle. In practice I've found many scum do kill a confirmed / near confirmed player in this situation without much thought.

As for the last post made yesterday, I brought that up simply to disprove this:

The trouble with any of those is that I think that Yankee is neither unaware enough to miss where people's suspicions were at the end of the day

Naturally, it is possible that he went back and looked overnight.

I do think that Yankee is sophisticated enough to think of trying to confuse with nightkills as scum but I don't think he's sophisticated enough to do it and then think that we would arrive at the place he wanted with as little guidance as he's given in that direction.

Scum trying to confuse people with a nightkill in this way would probably rather not have to bring it up themselves. Coming into the day with, "I'm not scum because I wouldn't have killed mr X last night!" would be just about the textbook definition of WIFOM. The fact that he didn't bring it up then doesn't magically stop him bringing it up later if suits.


Yankee posted in the meantime. I think you still missed a few questions. I don't think your accusation that I'm failing to look at both sides in this endgame is justified at all. I've given a leaning, but I'm obviously not certain or I'd have voted. I brought up the main thing that puts me in some doubt, and I'm discussing it with Zorblag right now. I'd like you to back this one up, because atm in this endgame I feel you're the one doing the least legwork.

As for not being nightkilled, I don't see it as anything remarkable. The Incognito kill just strikes me as a kill on a fairly strong player who was under little suspicion, the boberz kill I would hazard a guess had an element of doc-hunting. I've already laid out my thoughts on the other two nights. I continue to be sceptical of your claim that my not being nightkilled has changed your opinion that drastically, especially when you were happy to dismiss such things as WIFOM earlier in the game.

[Patrick]

I have focussed more on you than Zorblag, mostly because I suspect you more and because you keep coming up with bad reasons to attack me. I'm always going to shoot down attacks on me almost regardless of the gamestate. I have relatively fewer issues with Zorblag, as I don't think he's posted anything particularly scummy since replacing in. I also felt that interactions between you and ksen are more consistent with partners than Annachie/ksen, but I plan on looking at those again because it was a while ago. A good part of my talking to Zorblag is because if he's town as I suspect then I'll inevitably have to try and persuade him not to lynch me if I want to win, but that doesn't mean I've put blinders on and stopped observing his posts for alignment info.

And Nightkills excluded, if I were scum why would I drastically change my view from an easier lynch candidate to the most town looking player in the game based on what you guys think is little evidence?

If you're scum then anything you can use on either townie is probably welcome. You didn't exactly cut out options in a way that might hurt you. I'm more interested in hearing town rationale for this.

[Patrick]

Is this a slip up? It sure sounds like it....

Why are you bolding a few words to misrep me? If you read the entire sentence, you can clearly see that I'm saying

if Zorblag is town

, I'll have to convince him not to lynch me if I want to win.

[Patrick]

Sounds like a rather choppy sentence when you put that in, though I don't know enough about strict grammar rules to know whether it's correct or not.

[Patrick]

but you also have to admit that your defense of it is rather weak

??

The sentence with "we" instead of "I" sounds bizarre; I'm not sure I could imagine someone forming the sentence in that way. You seem to be saying it would have been more natural for me to say "we" instead; I'm saying that actually sounds unnatural to me. I suspect I'm being pulled into a pointless debate here. Feel free to carry on if you want, but I'd also like you to answer the questions you didn't from a few posts ago.

[Patrick]

@Patrick, why would Yankee wanting you to say who you suspected once more (even given the way that he phrased it) mean that he needs to have been unaware of what people's suspicions were at the end of the day?

I'd given my suspicion less than 4 days ago, and had only made a few posts in between. The only other point on the subject I'd made in the interim was finding your posts townish at the end of the day - seems very unlikely someone would read that and think my suspicion would have changed. I saw it more as him not having noticed what I said.

You're certainly right that this would be the way that scum should play the game if they were trying to confuse with that nightkill. That's why I'm trying to get at the level of sophisitcation and awareness though. I think that him anticipating this reaction on my part in particular is fairly unlikely. I think that either he's scum who made a night kill based on enough awareness to know that McGriddle looked town to the two of us or that the kill doesn't match what I'd expect from his level of sophistication as scum.

I don't think it's that unlikely. You've certainly posted in this game about scum nightkilling giving us information, especially when arguing for a no-lynch on day 3. I'm not sure why anticipating that reaction on your part in particular would be difficult. In the only scum game of his I've looked at he seemed familiar enough with the idea of killing someone to make himself look good. I do agree that if he's scum then a kill on confirmed innocent is more likely to be the reason, or a larger part of the reason.

Logical thinking and looking at both sides is always a town tell, but not a 100% tell, the reason I seem to be much more sure of you then Patrick is because you have done both those things where as Patrick has not done that, at least not as much. Patrick seems to be trying to push my wagon, where as he has not been looking at you as a possibility as all. Granted it seems i have not been doing that either, but I know my own role, so I am only looking between you two. I dont really know how to convince you of my role, but feel free to ask any questions you want.

I don't think either of these are particularly a town tell. This is also the second time you've claimed I'm not even considering the possibility that Zorblag is scum, which isn't true. I'm leaning towards thinking it's you, if you want to make an argument for that being suspicious then please go ahead. The reason I've been giving you a ton of flak compared to him is because you've spent absolutely all your time today coming up with a whole raft of bad reasons to attack me and seemingly sticking by them regardless of whether they're valid, get shot down, or even are things you've done yourself. If you think I'm being illogical today, point out where.

[Patrick]

Vote: Yankee

. Glad to see I wasn't wrong about that.

Zorblag, if you have other questions about my play, ask. All I can ask you is not to throw this game just because Yankee chose to kill the virtually confirmed guy last night. You got the right read out of the thread yesterday, you can see over the course of the game who's been looking for scum and who's just been grasping opportunities to attack people.

All game ksen has expressed some suspicion of herd/Yankee to fit in with others, but always managed to place a vote and push a lynch elsewhere. Yankee's interaction with ksen's claim on day 3 gives him away, look at the speed of the turnaround and some of the reasons he gives. Does Post 731 strike you as something anyone would actually believe? All this, and the ridiculous attempts to paint you as defending ksen on day 4 are because he knew ksen was going to flip scum and was trying to make up for having initially "believed" his claim.

I'm not surprised Yankee has avoided a load of questions today and yesterday, because he just didn't have legitimate answers. If he was town who genuinely thought McGriddle stood a reasonable chance of being scum then he would have argued against our interpretation of McGriddle as practically cleared yesterday. He didn't because he had no fears about McGriddle's alignment.

I'm sure I could write more about his scummitude, but I don't think it's exactly been lost on you anyway. You're paranoid about the nightkill, I can't entirely blame you for that because it worried me a little as well. As I said last post, I think the most likely scenario is that Yankee killed McGriddle as a semi-automatic kill; whether it was a good play is your decision, but alot of people (of all skill levels) do just kill off confirmed / near confirmed people as a matter of course.

[Patrick]

Well done guys. I was not optimistic about winning today. I'll talk a bit more about why I entered this endgame anyway and other stuff in general when I get home from work.

[Patrick]

This one had a frustrating number of "what ifs" and what I saw as missed opportunities for us to win. Starting at night 2, I thought there was a good chance Ether was a cop. I also had a nasty feeling boberz might be a doctor from his play that day, and also because I saw him online checking his inbox immediately after the Tyrope lynch (he was in no other games). I wanted to shoot at Ether because the risk from her running around as a cop the next day was more scary than the risk of the nightkill failing, which did at least tell us that the powerole was a doctor and not a cop.

On day 3 I considered claiming doctor to try and get boberz lynched, especially after he himself claimed vanilla. I literally almost *headdesked* when I saw ksen's claim (sorry) and I think if he'd posted that before I claimed vanilla then I'd probably have gone for the doc claim instead. Based on what Zorblag said on day 4, it might have worked. Zorblag replacing in was a real spanner in the works too; I think if Annachie had stayed, we'd have won.

Last night I considered pretty much every possible action. I knew that the McGriddle nightkill would worry Zorblag, having read Tofu Mafia, but had to hope it wouldn't be enough to turn his opinion around completely. I expected Yankee would end up voting me because I saw it as almost inevitable than I'd be arguing with Zorblag that day, trying to make a case for why Yankee might kill McGriddle, with Zorblag explaining why he felt it unlikely. Yankee had played a fairly OMGUSy game and I wasn't counting on his continuing support, though I didn't expect him to suspect me for being alive (and now that you know I'm not lying, I would still recommend against using that kind of reasoning.) This was what I thought about the other options:

1) Kill Zorblag and try to get McGriddle to lynch Yankee. I didn't particularly like this because I felt McGriddle wouldn't listen to arguments and wouldn't take into account the WIFOM from the nightkill being in my favour.

2) Kill Yankee. This just seemed like a worse version of (1).

3) Kill nobody. This is probably the alternative I considered the most. I was afraid it would be seen as the move of an experienced player, and also afraid someone might look at my past two games as scum and see that I did the same thing in those situations. I also thought the town would no-lynch and force me to make another decision.

It seems like the minute I killed McGriddle the game was probably lost. I don't think I did anything particularly scummy on the last day or that I could have forced the interpretation of why Yankee might kill in that way down Zorblag's throat any further than I did. Zorblag played very well and avoided getting tunnel visioned. At every step I had to try and guess what he was thinking.

boberz also played a very good game on the whole, though I think he went wrong on day 3 and played too flippantly. He figured out it was me and ksen but never really made a convincing case for it, which meant his view wasn't really listened to after his death. I also think the fakeclaim was unecessary here and could have turned out badly. Lying about his role just seemed like it took some information away from the town but nothing from the scum because he'd already made it reasonably obvious to us from his play that he was the doctor. But well played overall. Better than 99% of first timers.

I have to echo the comments about the modding; it was rather annoying to see people semi-clearing Tyrope because of mod not paying attention like that. I do hate playing as scum so I can't honestly say I enjoyed most of it, but thanks to all involved for making it a clean game and a close run thing. It would have been awesome to play with you guys in a town role.

Edit:

I thought I did pretty good identifying both ksen and Patrick as scum

I never remotely considered trying to save ksen on day 4, and think as town I'd have wanted to take it more slowly than I did. Someone being obvscum doesn't necessarily mean that they should be lynched immediately: see Zorblag's comments.

[Patrick]

http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/3j8NTVeK4e7SQ

[Patrick]

I have some in the QT, but with the claim: the thing to think about is what the likely positives and negatives will be from claiming. Of course, being scum doesn't mean we can read their minds, but you can try to predict what will happen and what scumgroups people will go after. The problem with the cop claim was that there weren't any real benefits from it. It was town knowledge that scum knew whether or not a cop existed, so not being counterclaimed wasn't going to count as a point in your favour. On the other hand, the details of your claim attracted suspicion because investigating Incognito for the reasons you gave on night 1 didn't seem to follow from what had been discussed that day, and because you put Yankee third on your list after claiming to have found him innocent (though I think this latter point was overblown). There was also the problem that it reduced our room to maneuvre because it ruled out several scum pairings that still looked plausible, and made it much harder for us to lynch Yankee. I know you did it with good intentions, but trying to draw attention away from me in that situation doesn't work; there was no reason for boberz to stop finding me scummy just because you'd made a dodgy looking claim. I don't think the pressure on me was that great at that point anyway, it only seemed to be boberz who was buying into it.

Aside from that, there was the active lurking thing I pointed out which you improved as the game went on. I'm coming to realise more and more that as scum it's fine to blend in and go unnoticed in the early stages, but later on you need to have some protown points in your favour or you risk being busted by process of elimination. On day 2 I thought you judged very well when to post and when to stay silent; on the whole that was probably our best day. I had to smile when I read boberz's list that had us both at the bottom.

[Patrick]

I couldn't think of any very plausible investigation for ksen to claim for night 1 since his opinions barely changed between days 1 and 2. I had played on day 2 deliberately leaving myself the option to claim cop with an innocent on ksen, but that was only really meant for scenarios where a real cop claimed and needed to be discreditted.

[Patrick]

That was never a slip. What was he smoking o_O

[Patrick]

My original accusations on you patrick was all just testing out my town read on you, then you reacted so strongly and didnt respond to my best point (i forget it now) and i thought scum.

If this is true, I hate to think how you'd have felt about my reaction if I'd been town. Although I have tried once or twice to fake anger, I'm milder as scum.

[Patrick]

I think that Patrick might have had a better chance at the win by trying to switch over to attacking me on the final day rather than trying to get me to stick with Yankee. Doing so would have completely tipped me off but that didn't really matter so long as he could do a better job of convincing Yankee than I could. That's just some Monday Morning Quarterbacking from the other team though; in his place it's entirely possible I would have made exactly the same move he did.

In general I wanted to keep you as more of an option than I did (and not just day 5), but the problem was Annachie just looked town to me and I was already having to fake stuff on him that I wouldn't have done as town (in contrast to people like RayFrost and Yankee who I genuinely thought looked scummy). I thought it would be difficult to argue for Annachie being partnered with ksen, and you didn't make any mistakes that I thought I could latch onto.

I actually was glad that ksen didn't self hammer because at the time I think all we had was McGriddle suspicious of me and Zorblag not having gone either way. It seemed to me if I killed McGriddle then it would have looked even worse for me than what happened in the game. I would have preferred to have a longer day to allow for me and Zorblag to get McGriddle to agree with us, but I thought he'd just see it as stalling in an attempt to save ksen.

Annachie you promised to explain exactly why you quit this game. Can you do this, because it really screwed with me.

This.