926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Kinetic]

vote bogar

. Last to confirm has more than a 50% chance to be scum.

Who thinks a mass claim might break the game? Maybe at least a mass name claim? I have a suspicion and I'd like to know who we are playing with here.

[Kinetic]

Break the game completely? Not likely. But you don't have to be incompetent to make a mistake, and sometimes mods forget things.

I'm actually more interested in the overall scope of the game which is why I want to learn more about the setting. From there I can start making inferences which are a little more based on something.

I can make lots of guesses, but once I start having some solid information those guesses get more accurate.

[Kinetic]

On the nameclaim:

I've already thought about a lot of the positives and negatives that have been presented. This isn't my first rodeo.

I have a couple of ideas and I'm unsure if they will work or not, but to be sure a name claim is needed. I don't think the name claim in and of itself is going to out scum, nor do I think its going to out power roles simply because this setting it could be very easy to hide them.

Also, I'd like to point out I'm not particularly attached to the idea either. I'd prefer it to go through, but I'm not going to push it much harder than saying what I think. Either way I'll eventually get the information I need to confirm or disprove my theories, but there might be a lot fewer people alive by then.

----

On other things:

Bogre not confirming annoys me.

Of the people posting (which aren't a lot) for some reason Mina is peaking my radar. Not sure why yet though, but I'm going to keep an eye on it.

[Kinetic]

Hello everyone. Happy hunting!

re: name claiming. I'm not sure what we will get from it other than house alliances which in and of itself is most likely not going to be telling of much other than, well... house alliances. I don't imagine that the setup would directly follow the storyline, so just because we find Cersei Lannister isn't necessarily going to out the killer(s).

I find it very difficult to even consider going for a name claim based on supposed theories with no explanation, because it could just as easily provide whatever you think for scum. I also think that name claiming might have some drastic potential to out power roles based on characters. With flavor considered, I would imagine whoever is Jamie Lannister (if the character is in this game) would have some sort of vigilante or killing mechanism since he is afterall the most well-known and decorated Knight in the Kingsguard. Or if we have a Cersei Lannister might be more indicative of a double voter or some sort of vote manipulation since she is a political mastermind in the books. Or someone on the Wall might be a neutral survivor because of the flavor of having no allegiance to king or property.

If we all name called I imagine scum would probably just start killing all the house leaders or most well known characters. Is it possible that the big names are vanilla townies? Possibly; but I don't think the risk is worth the supposed reward of whittling away at your theories.

To add to that, the sheer fact that you propose this idea, softly support it and say you don't care if it doesn't go through, but would like to see it go through anyway makes me very suspicious of your intentions. Fence sitting on your own proposal is quite strange (suspicious) to me.

Vote: Kinetic

xvart.

You're cute. I like the WoT avatar. Read my meta, k thx bai.

[Kinetic]

So, I was wondering why everyone was acting so scummy, and then I looked at all of the dates everyone's accounts were made on. Save MacLock they're all 2009...

...

That explains a lot.

Here, necessary reading for you guys.

Wheel of Time (The game I modded)

Freaktown,the main reason I won the scummy attached to my name. If you read any full game by me, read this one.

Tar game. If you think Tar is a "bad mod" you don't know anything.

Breaking a game doesn't require a mistake on the part of the mod. Most of the time it is something they merely overlooked or didn't realize was important. Most of the time it isn't important until you look at it from another direction.

I have a few other games that you could look up that are semi-important to understanding my meta, but those are the big ones. Both Babylon and Freaktown were horribly complex games that I figured out flaws in. I could tell you what they were but it would be better if you read them on your own to find them out so you aren't biased by my interpretation.

-----

For clarification's sake, since some of you feel I'm either "pushing or fencesitting", I'll restate my position again.

I have some information, and I have a couple theories (that no, I will not divulge) that may help figure some things out about the game.

No one single name claim is going to prove or disprove my theories, they rely more on something that would require a more full claim.

I think right now might be a good time to throw a wrench in the gears, so to speak, but I'm not sure and I want some discussion on the topic. I think its a good idea, but I want to hear what some more of the objections are right now before I decide if its seriously worth pushing or not.

Right now the objections I'm seeing are mostly just those of ignorance and the fact that players are immediately labeling it as scummy and even voting without attempting to see if they are in err is very telling for other reasons.

That being said I'm not sure I've heard anything that has dissuaded to believe this is not a good idea yet, and I'm going to have to re-read everyone's objections a few times to try and separate the motives and actual facts of the objections.

----------

Many of you have hit points that might be important to name claims but don't understand your own points. Let me explain them to you.

Most likely you are almost all power roles of some sort, that is why so many of you are so rabidly against any name claim. You think it will out you or such. That isn't likely to happen because of the setting many names lend themselves to MANY different roles.

For instances: Take someone who is almost certainly not in the game like Ned Stark.

Some of the roles he could possibly fill include:
Bodyguard
Vigilante (or Justicar)
Double Voter
Cop (Investigator)
Tracker
Watcher
etc etc etc.

Many of the characters are so dynamic that stating their names has very little to do with what they could do.

-----

One other thing I'm getting annoyed at is the frequent amount of parroting that is going on. If someone states an objection that is one thing, but repeating that same objection over and over again like it is new is getting old.

If you don't have something new to bring, don't act like your vote is anything more than a tack on vote, since that is all it is.

I agree that increasing pressure on someone for more information is a viable tactic, and I'm not saying that in and of itself is scummy, but doing that and trying to say it is for other reasons or try to make it seem like it is more than that is mis-representative, especially at this stage in the game.

-----

You may ask "But why is their a vanilla townie role in the rules if there might not be any vanilla townies?". Read Wheel of Time. Faraday was in it, it is EXACTLY what I did. The game had no traditional vanilla townies (it did have power roles that were borderline useless though) but had a vanilla role PM to throw people off that trail as a red herring. I wouldn't be surprised if Faraday borrowed that concept.

The role PM had a second function, that was to explain the town win condition so that everyone knew what it was including people who did not have it.

-----

Bogre's entrance actually makes me think he might be tripped up townie who is defaulting to OMGUS. Not sure how new he is. The vote stays for now though because his actions don't completely exonerate him since at best its a null tell, albeit a newbie tell.

-----

Mina continues to creep up my radar. Her and Bog definitely are the ones who I'm least likely to put any faith in at this time.

[Kinetic]

Both Babylon and Freaktown were horribly complex games that I figured out flaws in. I could tell you what they were but it would be better if you read them on your own to find them out so you aren't biased by my interpretation.

~

fix'd- Mod

[Kinetic]

meh, mod would you mind fixing that tagging fail?

[Kinetic]

So, I was wondering why everyone was acting so scummy, and then I looked at all of the dates everyone's accounts were made on. Save MacLock they're all 2009...

...

That explains a lot.

Okay, now you've pissed me off.

First of all, you shouldn't judge the player by the account date. Some of the players might be alts, and others might be new to mafiascum but not to Mafia. (For example, I usually play on another site.) And I don't think that the difference between one year and two-and-a-half years of experience is astronomical. Some of the "veteran" players who are known for their personalities and for their omnipresence on this site haven't improved after dozens of games.

Judge a player? Back off. I'm merely pointing out that the last time I was really actively in a game was before most of you were on the site. It could be expected that you do not know my meta, but I didn't realize that and thus thought you were just all acting scummy.

Mina continues to creep up my radar. Her and Bog definitely are the ones who I'm least likely to put any faith in at this time.

Could you explain just what you mean by "creeping up my radar"? Because you keep making backhanded comments about how you've got your eye on me and how no one should trust a word I say, but not once do you explain just

why

you suspect me. You seem to be more interested in planting a seed of doubt against me than gauging my reactions, too.

I can't and don't try to describe something I don't completely understand. When I read your stuff I just get a bad feeling from it. If I intended to vote you or pressure you more than that I'd go back and try to figure out why I'm getting that feeling.

I've had this feeling before on scum, and I've felt this way before on people who ultimately were town. Usually when I go back and try and figure out why I'm thinking this this I almost figure out which is which.

For now though I'm content with it just being a feeling and mentioning it as such.

By the way, what do you think of TheButtonmen? He who FOSsed you, parroted everyone else's complaints about your plan, and chided you for not voting a non-poster, but voted for someone else?

Who?

More seriously, I really do loathe these types of posts. The first 2/3rds are deriding me and then you ask my opinion on something. It makes me feel like there is some trap or catch involved. Normally I'd just ignore it but I'm more wondering if that is your plan so that you can go on for several pages asking me why I didn't answer your question.

[Kinetic]

Actually

I'm pro name claim I've decided, which is a complete flip I know.

I think we should post our names in order of the list on the OP

I will honestly be very suspicious of people I consider to be the "bad guys" in the books.
Sure, "bad guy" is a moving feast, since book 1, Jaime is painted as a bad guy, but later on he's not so bad. But anyway.

So I'm for a name claim. In the specific order. Because that way, scum have to choose, do I admit I'm Tywin Lannister? Or do I hope that "The onion knight" is not in the game and choose him. And then somebody else goes "But I'm the onion knight!" and bam! scum!

Who agrees?

And you are second to last on that list. Convenient?

The best way to claim is popcorn style. That is, someone is chosen by the group to claim first and that person chooses who claims after them.

[Kinetic]

Hardly defaulting to OMGUS, or defensiveness. RVS votes are next to meaningless- why would I be exceptionally worried about that?

Now, in regards to my vote, and Kinetic's considerable mention of it- there are two things I imagine: He is a townie, and wrong about the scumminess of the confirm, or he's scum, trying to point out something trumped up and was wrong about how to go about. At this point, nothing is really confirmed, but at that point it was -something- for me to go on.

Now, why he is wrong: Confirming last can plausibly indicate scumminess, but that is in the case of -confirming- in thread. (Scumminess comes from confirming late, beause of talking in quickchat.) In this case, however, confirmations were done by replying to role PM's- something that I do immediately after reading them (and I imagine is what most people do). Thus, his attribution of increased likelihood of me being scum is fallacious.

At the moment, I'm more interested in Miserable person, hopping on a wagon (mine) by parroting others reasons. Plus his post is a lot of waffling and 'soft' play- scumtells.

I also like Mina's analysis- opportunism is a very valuable thing to look for in the RVS. Scum are trying to appear active and contributory, and start pushing mislynches. New scum, especially, are very prone to opportunism.

You made a point that in some cases there could be a reasonable reason why scum might confirm last.

Thus my original point, that someone is more likely to be scum when confirming last than town stands.

It was basically a random vote though, only reason I didn't remove it after the RVS was because of your overstated reaction.

[Kinetic]

Yay

I have some issues with MacLock's numbers (principally since they assume that scum will believe nameclaim is a good idea). That being said I do believe we need a solid majority if we're going to go through with this.

8 would be preferred, more would always be preferred, but I would be completely ok with going forward with this if we have 7 in favor, especially if anyone abstains.

[Kinetic]

I believe MacLock is saying we have to take into account that the scum believe nameclaim is a good idea for them, thus requiring a higher number of town to believe it'll be good for town.

I believe I'm saying that is an assumption only scum could confirm to be true or not, and if it isn't true I'm saying that with the current numbers can block it a lot easier than a normal majority.

Its a clever tactic for scum to say we need a super-majority if he thinks that it would be negative to scum.

Assuming 3 scum then he's only need 2 townies to vote against. 4 scum would only require 1 townie. Even assuming he votes Yay to deflect suspicion AND he is scum, that is still only needing to convince 3 or 2 townies respectively, a much smaller margin.

And before you say "then do you think Mac is scum", I'm not sure, I'm merely taking the other side of the coin and saying I don't tacitly agree with his plan and that a simple majority (7-5) would be enough in my book.

[Kinetic]

Before I support it, some conditions:
A)We only claim name.
B)We do it by dice tag order.

Thoughts?

1 is exactly fine.

2 I'd prefer popcorn style (it also gives some interesting possible information based on who picks who). Completely randomized loses some information, but it could be done that way if others agree.

[Kinetic]

What are the benifits of popcorn? I would think in this situation we want scum having as little control over the order as possible?

So scum choose other scum? Do they choose townies?

Its just part of the game, it forces an interaction and those interactions can be analyzed when there is more information.

[Kinetic]

P.S. This assumes popcorn begins with a randomly generated player.

Random or the group decides by majority, either is fine by me.

[Kinetic]

unvote

Didn't realize Bog had so many votes on him. As my vote was half random and only left on because of reactions I'm going to take it off for now until I re-evaluate if I want to push or not.

[Kinetic]

If we are to believe Seacore with his VT claim, which I do atm, then Kinetic's theory of everyone having some sort of power role is wrong.

Not one of my primary theories, although yes if he isn't lying that would be the case.

That being said if he is telling the truth then one of the main objections against name claim is pretty thoroughly quashed.

So its sort of a even result towards name claims. One of the possible theories on why name claim would not be too damaging is quashed (lots of power, thus not much chance in revealing singular roles), but at the same time a main detractor is eliminated (power roles are tied to names).

[Kinetic]

Yes, my suspicion of Kinetic has nothing to do with the act of proposing the name claim. I think mentioning that is fine. My suspicion and vote is for his behavior surrounding the suggestion and the responses provided. Kinetic is fencesitting his own idea, selectively reading the thread and ignoring direct questions to him. He has also gotten much quieter since the pressure has been put on him.

First, I still don't understand the charge of fencesitting, perhaps this is because of differing views on how to define the word. As far as I'm concerned I've always been on the same side of the fence, I think its a good idea. I've merely unsure how much motivation I have at this time to spearhead the idea and push it.

Have you ever seen me state (in this game) that I think that name claiming is a bad idea? I've kept some cards closer to my chest than others, and there are some things I am unwilling to completely confirm or deny, but I haven't ever stated anything but support for the name claim or at least discussion on the topic.

Second, you say that proposing the idea is not scummy, yet my entire point for bringing it up was BECAUSE I wanted discussion and debate on the topic BEFORE any final game-changing decisions were forced to be made. You seem to think this is a good idea as well, yet you seem to both fault me for doing it and praise that it was done. It frankly confuses me.

I'm not selectively reading the thread, I've read the whole thing, however I am selectively responding. No one can or should respond to every single possible issue that may or may not be brought up in the thread. Anyone could be charged with that and I find it a bogus charge that you've added to your list to make it more robust.

Lastly, you say I've gotten "much quieter", yet I've posted nearly every day since the game started (save yesterday), and many days multiple times. You may perceive that I've "gotten quieter", but frankly the facts don't support this assumption.

[Kinetic]

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[Kinetic]

The dice select:

Heliograph

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, once the name claim is complete, will you be divulging your theory/theories, whether or not it/they happened to be true?

Most likely yes. Unless I think it'll be better to hold them for a day or two, but I doubt that.

[Kinetic]

I'm for lynching a chronic lurker if he doesn't post in the next 24-48 hours. Just saying.

[Kinetic]

Jon Snow

MacLock go.

[Kinetic]

My apologies, again..., everyone. I always say I'm going to go through this topic and read up, and then life/school/work catches up with me. I will play forth and be more active from here on out though, promise you all that. Sometimes I just lose track of everything.

The deadline is the third, correct?

And does anyone have objections to me reading through the topic and posting thoughts, or would you all prefer I just play mostly from this point on and such?

We're going through a name claim. Xvart is next, stay attentive for your turn.

[Kinetic]

L/A over the next few days due to a project that is biting me in the ass.

[Kinetic]

Waiting for Inq to claim, but there are a few patterns that I've noticed with the claims so far.

One of my main ideas isn't quite baring fruit like I thought it would, but a few other things have popped up.

I think its safe to assume that there is false claims among the claims, and that some people are not claiming who they really are. In that matter if there is a name/role cop in the set up that person can find someone now with a positive yes or no, instead of a maybe without the claim.

That being said I'm curious to see Inq's claim. I think I know who he is if my idea is correct though.

[Kinetic]

vote:helio

It us a blatent policy-ish lynch, but I can't decide right now and still waiting on inq, but it's better than nothing.

[Kinetic]

My main theory revolving around the name claim was to try and pinpoint more precisely the timeline for which this game takes place.

We know that it can take place anywhere between the murder of Robert in AGoT to the murder of Eddard "Ned" Stark, also in AGoT.

Because of this I was trying to see if there were, first, characters that didn't fit into this time period (either weren't introduced or mentioned) or more specifically were not in King's Landing at the time.

I haven't had time to analyze all of the results yet to see who fits where, but so far it seems that for the most part this seems to play out.

Notable exceptions are as follows:

Coldhands was not introduced until AFTER this period of time.

Renly, Theon, Tarly, Snow, and Cassel were not present at all at King's Landing during this time period (which according to the fluff is where we are).

Of the remaining roles, (Arya, Catelyn, Robb, Sansa, Sandor, and Tyrion), two were "allied" with the Lannisters while the other 4 were Starks. Additionally if we nail down the time period Catelyn Stark may not have been at King's Landing either.

As it stands from this quick analysis my original ideas were not completely right, but that doesn't mean we didn't gain a lot of information from this list, not the least of which is that everyone is cemented in their claims.

If I had to make rough guesses right now on who was scum based solely on set up, I'd make these assumptions:

At least one of {Sansa, Robb, Catelyn, or Arya} is most likely scum

At least one of {Sandor, Tyrion} or {Snow, Tarly, Coldhands} is most likely scum (but I put these together since I think each is mutually exclusive due to their locations).

At least one of {Theon, Cassel, Renly} is most likely scum.

This is all assuming 3-5 scum in the setup, with either a mixture of one mafia group and a SK and/or Survivor, or two mafia groups and either a SK or Survivor.

I'm voting for Helio (Tyrion) more for his play than for his role, although I could see his role going either way, but at the same time I think one of the two "scummiest" name claims is possibly town or town-like. Tyrion and Sandor could very conceivably be part of the "good guys", but neither were such during this point in the timeline, so it could be a double-bluff.

I think at least one of the Starks is a fake claim if only because there are so many of them (4) and they're the largest single grouping of characters. The only one that I see that is missing from this game is Bran. I suppose you could also include several other names in that list, and I'm reasonably sure that there is likely at least 2 scum among the four Starks, and everyone tied directly to the Starks (this would include Cassel, Snow, Theon and on the off chance Coldhands if we believe the theory he is Benjen [Which I don't put any personal faith in]), which would be 2 out of 7-8 players.

In the end these numbers aren't very useful now, but by forcing players to pick their sides now they can't change their minds as play commences and puts them in very tight positions.

I'll be going over more as I see it and giving more analysis. As it stands I feel relatively strong enough in my vote for helio, especially given the time constraints right now, but I'm willing to vote elsewhere to ensure a lynch.

[Kinetic]

By the way, in my last post, I left off part of my reply to Kinetic. I meant that I thought he was implying everyone looked scummy because we were all n00bs who sucked at Mafia. (Although to be honest...most of the players in this game do look kind of scummy.) Apparently, he meant we looked scummy for not immediately supporting his nameclaim plan, but that's not how it came across.

Not exactly.

It wasn't support or dissent that made me feel people were scummy, but the fact so many of them thought I was being scummy for bringing it up, when frankly my modus operandi is setup deconstruction.

When I realized that I hadn't played with anyone save MacLock, and that all save Bogre weren't around long enough to at least hear about my play style, it started to make sense and I no longer found it scummy.

[Kinetic]

I would really prefer Helio, if only because day 1 is the best point for a policy/troublesome player lynch. As the game goes on his scummieness will continue to be passed as newbieness and it will be more difficult to pull the trigger in place of someone who is generally acting scummy without such a convenient excuse.

[Kinetic]

Mod: Check votes on buttonmen

It looks like we have either a shadow or double voter. Be careful, that could either be a town or scum ability depending on which one it is.

[Kinetic]

Note: If this is a double or shadow voter, I do not want this person to claim, especially if it is a pro-town role. However the town should notice that such a role exists and it can just as easily be scum.

(i.e. DO NOT CLAIM)

[Kinetic]

Since I can't find any, I have made a choice to not vote anyone, if I did just vote somone now it would be OMGUS and that would look scummier than my no lynch.
In truth a no vote doesn't help the town but a mislynch won't help us either.

Note to self, if Helio is scum look at others who have high vote counts right now.

[Kinetic]

Although there are other differences the important one is this:

A double vote can only be used on someone you are already voting, while a shadow vote can be used on anyone.

Activating them may or may not be compulsory.

[Kinetic]

While I agree with Kinetic that there's no way to know whether the invisi-vote comes from town or scum, I think it's more likely to come from town. That is, I've rarely seen double-votes being a scum power. Therefore, I see no reason that Buttonmen is any more (or less) likely to be town due to the invisi-vote.

I also agree that the double-voter should not claim.

Except that this power seems to be the shadow vote power that I used in WoT and that I know Faraday is familiar with. If that's the case I usually gave such an ability to scum or neutrals over town, but then again I did give it to town on occasion as well, so it could go either way.

[Kinetic]

ok... lynch helio now gogo?

[Kinetic]

ok... lynch helio now gogo?

So do you believe claim?[/quote]

I never said that, but I'd prefer to see what some of his "results" are before lynching him.

He's a claimed cop, either he is going to die or he is going to lie. I'd prefer if we're set on lynching him waiting until he has some results out though.

[Kinetic]

They will already be able to RB or NK you, so that's not much of an excuse.

Yes, thats the point. As it stands they need to RB or NK me, if I go explaining in detail how exactly I work then they may be able to plan around it.

I don't want to know anything but this: Does your "special" thing effect the alignment data you receive? (i.e. is it a sanity or something like that, something that would prevent you from getting a "true" result).

Other than that I don't want you to reveal your "catches" and I'd prefer to question you more fully after you get some results.

[Kinetic]

Consider him at L-1. With a floating vote I don't want him to be lynched before we see a claim.

[Kinetic]

Apparently it is now possible to bus someone without ever voting for them. Learn something new every day.

[Kinetic]

I'll hammer...

Vote: Heliograph

xvart.

...

[Kinetic]

Ebwop: meh, thought it was est. Nm that was the right call xvert.

[Kinetic]

Hmm, this flip (as well as Inq's revelation) changes a lot of things. My original theory might not be too far off, but it looks like there are some people who might have "other" reasons for being at King's Landing.

Going to go over a few things before I make a post.

[Kinetic]

Here is something I'm pondering right now:

Is Inq the Serial Killer. Anyone care to weigh in on what they think about that possibility?

[Kinetic]

Jon Snow

MacLock go.

Why did you choose MacLock?

First, try and not 6-post in a row, just make it all in one post.

Second, I chose him because he was who I was most interested in learning they're name from.

Notable exceptions are as follows:

Coldhands was not introduced until AFTER this period of time.

Renly, Theon, Tarly, Snow, and Cassel were not present at all at King's Landing during this time period (which according to the fluff is where we are).

Of the remaining roles, (Arya, Catelyn, Robb, Sansa, Sandor, and Tyrion), two were "allied" with the Lannisters while the other 4 were Starks. Additionally if we nail down the time period Catelyn Stark may not have been at King's Landing either.

As it stands from this quick analysis my original ideas were not completely right, but that doesn't mean we didn't gain a lot of information from this list, not the least of which is that everyone is cemented in their claims.

If I had to make rough guesses right now on who was scum based solely on set up, I'd make these assumptions:

At least one of {Sansa, Robb, Catelyn, or Arya} is most likely scum

At least one of {Sandor, Tyrion} or {Snow, Tarly, Coldhands} is most likely scum (but I put these together since I think each is mutually exclusive due to their locations).

At least one of {Theon, Cassel, Renly} is most likely scum.

This is all assuming 3-5 scum in the setup,

with either a mixture of one mafia group and a SK and/or Survivor, or two mafia groups and either a SK or Survivor.

I could see Kinetic killing xvart too.
Maybe that's what made Kinetic think xvart was a PR.
Of course this is wifom but xvart was most suspicious of Kinetic.

Have you ever played a 12 player game with 5 scum?

I'm sorry, what? Where did I say I thought xvert was a power role? If I thought something like that I would never reveal it. Second, why the hell would I ever kill someone so suspicious of me, its not my way of doing things.

I was suspicious of him, his was the only claim that didn't fit, but I was trying to figure out why. I pegged him for town or possibly newbie scum, but I wasn't sure which yet precisely because his claim didn't fit. I'm assuming there has to be some sort of mod-created fake claim system in the game, all 12 roles fit into it (including Xvart's AFTER we learned his real role), Coldhands never fit, and even though I tried to fit it in and never worked.

And yes, I've played with games with up to 5 scum in a mini, generally the 5th scum is a survivor though, so your concept of scum must be expanded. 3-4 is most likely, 5 is not unheard of.

Now onto Miserable's uberscummy contribution to the game...
He has 6 posts total, in where he promises content, and claims Sandor Clegane.
His first post is only one with content.He goes with the popular flow. In it he says he is not for name claim(then later votes Yay).Parrots my Mina case and makes a weak case on Bogre.
In Iso of Miserable also notice that his third,fourth, and fifth posts are exactly 3 days apart.
He's posting just enough to not get replaced and it makes me wanna...

Vote:Miserable At Best

You've actually (albeit quite randomly) hit on one of my top suspects after the night as well, but I was hoping to hold off for a bit to see what his first post of the day was like before I put any pressure on him.

Right now MaB and Inq are the two I'm most suspicious of.

Now would you mind telling me what you think of Inq?

[Kinetic]

The Dead:
Heliograph - Tyrion Lannister - Innocent Aligned Double Voter was lynched Day 1.
Xvart - Syrio Forel -Vanilla Townie was killed night 1.

If there was two killing factions wouldn't there be different kill flavour like stabbed,shot,etc. Instead of just killed?

Why did you think this was true? Is it necessary for a mod to distinguish between the factions that make the kill?

Rav mafia who got kill blocked and Inq SK? That is a very interesting find Mac.

[Kinetic]

The main issue I'm having with Inq's claim is this:

If he had any more protection left, why did he announce he had it. Wouldn't that only discourage scum from attacking him again? Wouldn't a townie both PREFER the night kill attempt to target him again and maybe even try to draw it?

Everything in me is telling me this is a bulletproof scum gambit from someone who had a one-shot immunity and lost it and now is trying to trick people from killing him in the night phase.

For this to make him scum though, it points toward SK because of the type of protection (I see SKs much more likely to have night kill protection), and since the likely hood of three killing roles is nearly moot he would also thus have to be responsible for the xvart kill.

Unless there is something I'm missing that is so far where my main suspicions lie with Inq.

[Kinetic]

I half agree with some of the things Rai says about Seacore, but I also feel like Rai/Inq are two of my higher suspects.

I'm almost wondering if this might be a partial chainsaw onto Seacore since he's pushing Inq so hard right now, which would make Inq team scum in that case with Rai as a partner. Possible I suppose but I'm not sure how likely.

[Kinetic]

The main issue I'm having with Inq's claim is this:

If he had any more protection left, why did he announce he had it. Wouldn't that only discourage scum from attacking him again? Wouldn't a townie both PREFER the night kill attempt to target him again and maybe even try to draw it?

Everything in me is telling me this is a bulletproof scum gambit from someone who had a one-shot immunity and lost it and now is trying to trick people from killing him in the night phase.

For this to make him scum though, it points toward SK because of the type of protection (I see SKs much more likely to have night kill protection), and since the likely hood of three killing roles is nearly moot he would also thus have to be responsible for the xvart kill.

Unless there is something I'm missing that is so far where my main suspicions lie with Inq.

You seem a little too sure that The Inq. got targeted last night, yet you try and paint him as SK.
So you believe only part of his claim? Why?
Why do you think The Inq. didn't claim totally bulletproof?

Your questions can be answered simply by understanding the answer to this question: If you think he is lying about being targeted at all or his role, does this make him less likely to be scum?

I'm taking what he is saying at face value and then evaluating how likely I think he could be lying. I don't like his claim one bit, and even if part of what he is saying is true, I still find it very scummy and am poking holes in it in the way that I do best.

In fact, after reading I'm confident enough in my analysis, especially with some of the other things brought up, to

Vote:Inq

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, I still want you to answer whether or not Inq makes sense as the target of the maf NK.

Sorry, thought I answered this: Given what I knew, yesterday I wouldn't think so. Given what I know now I'd say hell yea.

To make sense as a mafia kill by my estimation then I'd lean to think that of the groups I pointed out yesterday there are the least amount of mafia remaining in the group that Inq would have belonged to (thus, when town inevitably starts narrowing that group they are less likely to lynch mafia).

[Kinetic]

Okay, after checking Kinetic's giant location post, I just realized that from his POV (if he's town), the Jon-Tarly-Coldhands group would have no scum if Inquisition was town. I personally don't believe the scum would plan their nightkills around his location theory...but hey, it's possible, if they're afraid of his reputation.

One Note: Serio would more likely fit with either the Renly/Theon/Cassel group. Cassel and Serio fit best together, both being "bodyguard" types.

That would leave 4 people in the other group, them being, myself, Inq, MaB, and the late helio.

This also gives more reason for me to suspect both Inq and MaB, who are both high on my suspect list.

[Kinetic]

unvote

No, it isn't raiv. I'm unvoting for another reason right now though.

[Kinetic]

Kinetic: as you haven't elaborated, I have to ask: are you deliberately being mysterious or can you tell us why you've unvoted?

I'm pretty sure if I elaborated that I'd be mod-killed. For now I'm thinking it over, but I don't think I can explain.

[Kinetic]

Bog seems to be heavily suspected right now, but he wasn't ever really high on my own suspect list. Since he's under threat of lynch though I'll read through him and give some feedback before a decision is made.

[Kinetic]

Since I lack a vote right now, until I can get a strong enough read on someone else I'm going to default to my top suspect.

vote:flutter

[Kinetic]

Do you mind backing up vote with why he's your top suspect? Why you're not as convinced by the Bogre case as the rest of us?

Its not that I'm not convinced, its so much that I just haven't really analyzed him and my original gut reactions were pointing more toward townie.

If it becomes a deadline issue I'd vote to secure a lynch, but right now it isn't. I'm letting my feelings be known with my vote who I'd prefer to lynch right now while I work on catching up.

Issue is I'm not sure exactly when that will be, having several projects I am hoping to catch up on/finish tomorrow and if all goes according to plan I'll have some free time after.

[Kinetic]

Seriously? Prodded? I posted less than 72 hours ago and I'm working on things right now. I'm trying to keep up and if I'm absolutely needed I'll post more, but right now I'm taking care of other things right now.

[Kinetic]

Bleh, the deadline is the 20th >>. I don't like going into a deadline not knowing much, but I've got to finish the projects I'm working on right now. I'll try to catch up asap.

[Kinetic]

Have some computer access during the next couple hours and I can't work on my other projects so I'm going to try and catch up here.

[Kinetic]

Look at Bogre in iso, my thoughts: Too little information there. Its good that he was replaced, but right now I don't know, other than his lurking and seeming refusal to respond to said pressure (and then being replaced) where his case lies. Likely I'll find it when I look at others.

Looked at MaB and hen Flutter: Still unsure about MaB, and although Flutter seems to have contributed more I'm still unsure. Put this at a high maybe, leaning towards scum. To top it off the name claim doesn't sit well with me, can't think of a "town" character that this person could be, but with the Tyrion flip it doesn't make me real sure we could trust that sort of thing.

Locke: Not much until his conflict with Buttonman (looks like), didn't read Button yet, but he looked OK until then. I wouldn't put him on my scum list yet, but I think he is on my radar.

Not going to read anymore in iso, but reread day 2, with an eye on Bogre's wagon and those involved:

Looking at Bog's Wagon-
Mina: Pressure Vote
Raiv: Lurker Vote
Locke: Votes after Bog responds to his question
Seacore: Bandwagoning Vote

Based on what I can see, if Bog is town I'd expect Seacore to be possible scum, but if he is scum it looks more like Locke could be his partner, based on vote placement, interaction, and the reasons behind their votes.

That being said, Percy has now replaced Bog. A continued pressure vote for more information would be useless until Percy has a chance to catch up. Additionally Bog has not responded since these two additional votes were cast, so we have nothing to analyze there.

I'm going to wait until Percy responds to what is going on, and since we are relatively close to deadline and he is the biggest suspect, I think perhaps we should think about making him claim, unless one of the four on his wagon thinks they want to pull off at this point.

Other notes: Raiv is tweaking my senses, not sure why yet though.
MacLock isn't, I think this may be significant as well.
I keep seeing big posts by Mina, but for some reason my eyes glaze over them with out reading much. That probably isn't a good sign.

-----

[Kinetic]

It isn't a matter of knowing something I'm allowed to know or not, but using the structure of the role PM in a way that could cause a modkill. I'm going to ask Faraday a few questions, but I'm pretty sure I know the answers.

[Kinetic]

I keep seeing big posts by Mina, but for some reason my eyes glaze over them with out reading much.

That probably isn't a good sign.

I would like to know what you mean by what I italicized above.

Its more "Its not a good sign for me" than anything in relation to his alignment. If I'm having trouble reading someone to the point where I want to skip their posts, it isn't going to help me figure out their alignment, etc.

@Kinetic

: You unvoted The Inquisition based of this role PM shenanigans, is there any way you can paraphrase your conclusions?

I'm trying to figure out exactly what I can and cannot say, and what wording would be appropriate from the mod. Also have another question in there for him and I'm waiting for replies before going further with this.

[Kinetic]

Alright, from my PMs with Faraday, this is what I can reveal.

The reason I thought Inq might be who he says he is (Samwell Tarly) was because of something he said which was nearly word for word in my own PM. I am not going to tell you what that is because that might be stepping over the line that I'm treading carefully here, but suffice to say it was there.

However, from talking with Faraday one of the questions I asked was about fake claims, and according to him such a wording might also be present in a fake claim if such a fake claim existed.

So, my gut reaction is that he could be town because of this, but there is enough doubt or perhaps preparation involved that it could be a false positive or intended to give scum a measure of protection by having fake claims that are similar to town PMs.

Because of this I don't prefer an Inq lynch, but if it comes down to it I'll vote.

For the town:

I have town reads on MacLock

Semi-town reads on Inq (because of the before mentioned), and maybe Percy (based on his entrance, and discounting Bog's lurking)

Neutral reads on Mina, Seacore, and Button (for now)

Scummy reads on Locke and Raiv

And still view the new Confucius (formerly MaB and Flutter) as my scummiest read.

[Kinetic]

Just to note. I really want to get back into this game, but right now my life is REALLY hectic. It'll clear up after April 1st at the latest, and most likely starting after Thursday I'll have a lot more time on my hands, but a few things are just piling down on my and I can't help but take them as priority.

unvote

For now. I realize with the splurge of posts I have some things I need to respond to, and I'm not trying to dodge that responsibility, but right now I just don't have the time to post much more than this.

I'll keep an eye on the thread when I get a spare moment so I can vote again before deadline if my vote is needed. Raiv/Locke are still my preferred lynches, but I'll go with the majority if needs be to secure a lynch.

[Kinetic]

vote:Raiv

Close enough to deadline where a vote will be needed one way or the other.

[Kinetic]

Raiv is at -1. If you're going to claim, now is the time.

[Kinetic]

Hi I'm Raivann and I'm caught, squirming scum. Please die now.

[Kinetic]

V/LA until Wednesday

Inquisition, that is what I call a gambit done wrong.

I'm still not 100% sure if I should come forward with what I was hinting at yesterday. Before I proceed, I'd just like to ask everyone a question. What's the standard distribution for a game with multiple killing factions here? 3:1:8? 2:1:9? 2:2:8?

There's one thing we can be certain of. MacavityLock did not kill xvart on N1. And MacavityLock did try to kill Inquisition on both N1 and N2, because the flip confirms that Inquisition was BP.

Assuming this is LYLO, and we're dealing with a three-man scumteam, the following players can be Mafia:

Locke Lamora, Kinetic, TheButtonmen, Seacore, Confucius

Leaving the following teams:

Locke/Kinetic/Button
Locke/Kinetic/Seacore
Locke/Kinetic/Confucius
Locke/Button/Seacore

Locke/Button/Confucius

Locke/Seacore/Confucius
Kinetic/Button/Seacore

Kinetic/Button/Confucius

Kinetic/Seacore/Confucius

Button/Seacore/Confucius

I struck through all the teams including Button and Confucius, because like I said before, I don't think they can be partnered. (If someone thinks otherwise, I'd like to hear their reasoning.)

On Wednesday, I'll reread the thread and see if I can eliminate any more partnerships. This will be tough. Pretty much every single person in the game can be partnered with Locke, because he took so few stands and no one ever formed any bandwagons on him. Con's slot left no ripples early on and then was widely trusted afterward. None of the surviving players seriously pushed wagons on Kinetic and Seacore. But maybe there are clues from the Buttonmen wagons on Day One and Two.

Why have you ruled out both yourself and MacLock?

MacLock claimed Vig after being caught, and frankly, while you may think yourself "cleared" you're not. Neither of you absolutely cannot be mafia unless you know something that we don't. MacLock could very well have just been the mafia player to have performed the kills and there is another killing party (perhaps a Serial Killer) or yet another mafia group (2/2).

I think your assumptions otherwise are suspicious.

[Kinetic]

Also

Semi-V/LA until Wednesday

. Finishing up some things that are due April 1st. I'll still be around.

Actually, something I just looked up to confirm, it looks like the killing methods for the non-claimed kills were different. Didn't notice that on my first pass.

That means there is a high likelihood that MacLock is not Mafia, unless there is a 2/2 group, that being said Mina still can't be ruled out as far as I'm concerned.

(Reasons: The only time different kill methods would be employed is if a different member of the mafia performed the kill. This means that the likelihood of MacLock belonging to the group that performed the two unclaimed kills, assuming they were done by the same group, is unlikely. That being said a separate scum group, either a lone SK or a second group of 2, could still include MacLock.

[Kinetic]

I'd like to see Button answer some questions as well. Although I did think Raiv was more likely to be scum yesterday, at this point Button has gone two days and is at this point just pretending like no one is asking him any questions.

[Kinetic]

Ok, I'm getting high scum vibes from Button.

If this is LyLo (and there is a strong chances this is), voting is NOT something you do willy nilly.

Right now, when Conq voted Button I put it in my head that the fact there wasn't a quick vote behind him means either Button or Conq is likely scum. (If there are three scum remaining either Button is a scum and the other scum are staying away from his wagon or Conq is scum and he needs a townie to jump on before his buddies hammer.)

With Button's vote it becomes more convoluted because now there is a high likelihood of either Button or Seacore being scum (since if they were both town the same thing might happen/ i.e. three scum jump on and potentially end the game.)

The fact that Button is the common thread in both of these and he STILL hasn't answered any questions or provided his results, yet continues to fish from Conq is major suspicious to me.

MFOS:Button

Unless you are SURE who you are voting is scum (or you are scum trying to start a quick lynch) you should not be voting right now!

[Kinetic]

At this point Button has provided no excuse for why he is not here, and continues to just ignore all requests for anything.

I'm pretty much ready to vote for him.

[Kinetic]

I agree.

Vote:Button

[Kinetic]

Yea, I was using a lot of my meta Day 1 against the town to shake off the stigma of the obvious scum play.

Day 2 I really was getting caught behind. Mina and Con really stepped up there.

Day 3 I just hung back and waited for a quick hammer.

It was a good game, the fact that the cop was outted day 1 and the vig was tracked night 1 hurt the town a lot.

[Kinetic]

I want to post the Scum QT if only to show the immense paranoia from this latest night.

[Kinetic]

Button didn't have any results. I roleblocked him every night until I roleblocked you in endgame Mac.

[Kinetic]

Yea, except Con was a tracker and had proved that by tracking you onto the Inq kill. I doubt you'd have dome anywhere near lynching Con or Mina, even if someone you lynched me.

Granted, my death would have sucked as I was the RB, but Button would have used up his 2 shot already so it would have only mattered slightly.

[Kinetic]

On the name claim, if I was town I don't think I could have pulled anything, but I definitely would have stuck hard at Coldhands and Sandor's claims as they both didn't fit AT ALL.

I mean, seriously, the game basically says the Lannisters are evil and Sandor was Joffrey's hound after all.

[Kinetic]

And yes, the entire point of the name claim was to deviate the towns attention for the entirety of the day. I'd done it on accident before, this time I tried to do it on purpose .

[Kinetic]

Two things I loved. With a little bit of bait Seacore was the one who "lead" the push for nameclaiming. Once he started championing the cause I pulled back and played it close to my chest. Didn't want to seem too eager, but also trying not to contradict myself. In many ways I got the benefit of it, but I didn't get the brunt of the scummieness. Admittedly I played pretty shady, but half of that was intentional. If I was heavily called on it I would have played the "last few games I was town I got killed day 1, so I'm trying to act scummyish to avoid NKs" card.

Second, I half wanted the name claim to be denied. I had NOTHING in the way of analysis and pretty much pulled that shit out my ass at the end. I split the town up as best I could, and tried to put us all in "good" positions.