Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys! - Over

[Sundy]

/confirm

Now underline me!

[Sundy]

Two too many cartoon characters and tongues...

[Sundy]

I want to OMGUS vote on crazypianist, but instead I will

VOTE: Agar

for following my hilarious post with his own joke instead of commenting on mine.

[Sundy]

People I'm currently suspicious of:

Bub Bidderskins: Voting without bold, possible sneakiness
DemonHybrid: Gut
Parama: Might just be play-style

But I'ma place my vote where it will count this early in the game and I think the Winger case > the Pianist case.

vote: Winger

[Sundy]

I express negative vibes about 3 players, and next thing you know all of them freak out to various degrees. Why so touchy, hmm? Granted I often draw a wagon on myself the first day, and maybe my play-style is at fault, but in my view people need to chill out (if they're town), and keep on being crazy to demonstrate your evil to everyone (if they're scum).

Parama: I gave my reason for not voting any of the first 3 suspicions, but I'll expand for you in case you don't like reading between the lines: "

I'ma place my vote where it will count this early in the game.

" There were already good wagons building up that will pressure a player, though neither bandwagon is particularly serious yet. I'm taking advantage of the flow of the game to put my vote where it can contribute to pressure, rather than strike out on an entirely new case. I might as well learn what I can learn from an effective bandwagon before moving to my next suspicions.

Bub: why not mention three players I'm suspicious of? I'm throwing some vibes out there in essentially my first post after RVS. I'll get to your question at the end fo this post.

Twistedspoon: How is my suspicion of Parama a counter-suspicion? Are you suggesting that he was suspicious of me before I was suspicious of him, because I don't believe that's the case. As for the DH suspicion, I've seen gajillions of players on this site say that their gut didn't like something. Don't see what the problem is here.

DemonHybrid: Reiterated Parama's argument (please see response above).

As for the Winger/Crazy debate, I thought all of the extensive and imaginative analysis on Crazy's "lol" was a load of crap. Winger started that, along with Parama and DH, and then hopped onto the vote after other players confirmed that they also found Pianist suspicious. He's not really taking a stance in the first accusation, and jumping to a vote in the second. (I agreed with AGar's interpretation of what happened.)

I also agree with Oso's point here, in reference to Winger accusing Crazy of lying:

Language is too strong for this early in the game

I look at the beginning of the game as a time of uncertainty, and I look at players who express complete certainty with a smidgin of evidence as suspiciously knowledgable. (That's incidentally what I didn't like about Parama's play, but it's cropped up in his other games.) Here is an example of that smidgin of evidence from Winger:

Oso, crazypianist contradicted himself (in my opinion) when he said he did not have a problem with the vote on him. That directly contradicts the tone set by the (what I'd consider) hostile/sarcastic "Lol" response he gave previously.

Sure now he's made it clear that it's his opinion (whereas before he directly accused him of lying), but he's still saying that "Lol" means something "hostile/sarcastic" based only on his imagination, and therefore Pianist is lying. There's a reason I didn't study literary criticism, and it's because projecting onto the text is annoying.

As for me, I interpret Pianist's "Lol" to be a subtle and brilliant accusation of DemonHybrid, for voting twice during the RVS. One player already suggested that voting twice destroys the pressure of RVS, Pianist was clearly tuned into this view of RVS, and elegantly accusing DemonHybrid of doing such.

To sum up, I completely agreed with Pianist that people were putting words in his mouth (possibly for ulterior motives), and I thought Winger was a huge part of that game. Additionally he had a bunch of pressure building on him, perfecto. Parama and DH were playing the projection game too, but I can only vote for one player at a time.

[Sundy]

The Bub suspicion I won't defend so much. I didn't realize a vote wouldn't count if not bolded. Otherwise I thought a subtle un-bolded vote could be a way to surreptitiously bring someone to the edge.

Sins of the newbie are sins of the newbie. However Winger's sins (casting aspersions on another player by inventing motives) seem more egregious than Pianist's (responding to his name listed in RVS).

Parama: I find over-confidence suspect in general but this player displays it regardless of alignment. Hence the ambiguity of my suspicion.

[Sundy]

As for the Winger/Crazy debate, I thought all of the extensive and imaginative analysis on Crazy's "lol" was a load of crap. Winger started that, along with Parama and DH, and then hopped onto the vote after other players confirmed that they also found Pianist suspicious. He's not really taking a stance in the first accusation, and jumping to a vote in the second. (I agreed with AGar's interpretation of what happened.)

No. Absolutely not. In fact, part of the debate that has gone on (which you would know if you had actually read and paid attention) involves the fact that I

wasn't

the first one to really give context to the "Lol". I simply asked a question, pianist said "Lol", then DEMONHYBRID is the one who actually pointed out why it was scummy first. In actuality, I only asked crazypianist a question to try and dig a little deeper.

Hm, I think this chronology is quite wrong, as you would know if you'd actually read and paid attention. Let's revisit the conversation in question.

Lol

You have a problem with DemonHybrid's vote on you, pianist?

Nope, and that's the point =P

I'd say yes.

Can we get a bandwagon on this guy?

Calling your bluff.

Um...

What bluff? I like my vote on you now.

Not at all, AGar. I just thought the response "lol" to someone who placed the second vote on pianist was a bit too lackadaisical. DemonHybrid already pointed it out... it seemed very much like crazypianist did have a problem with that vote, which makes me wonder why she lied about it.

Furthermore, having a problem with a vote while everyone is randomly voting makes her seem even more suspicious.

After this occurred, Parama decided to take issue with Pianists' RVS vote (which, as has been said, wasn't that different from any of the others), and then adds some context of his own:

Lemme complete this post:
"Lol you're voting me for no reason so I should have to acknowledge your post but because I'm scum I'm incredibly paranoid about votes and thus feel I must acknowledge the vote"
You left a whole lot out, crazy. Why?
Reading every post from that point on, lol one scum's already flailing.

As we can see, Winger, you are the first to make up context. DemonHybrid agrees with your accusations, although he lists absolutely no reasons of his own, and does nothing to analyze Pianist's posts. Parama then adds context of his own. My original post is correct. You started the issue, were the first to make up context, and placed your vote only after another player had already agreed with you.

Winger, why'd you call this a game of werewolf? And yeah, Mafia is about making up accusations, but you also provide evidence to back up accusations, in order to convince the town. And I'm not convinced by the evidence that either you or Parama have provided w/r/t Pianist, nor am I swayed by the loud agreement in lieu of evidence from DemonHybrid.

[Sundy]

I saw that. IT DOESN'T WORK. If you're suspicious of 3 players, vote one of them.
"This player"
I am offended.
You've never seen me play scum anyways.

Yeah but just because I'm suspicious of one player doesn't mean I can't be suspicious of another. I've also laid out my interpretations of Winger's play, which justify my vote on him (though I get why people are mad that I didn't go into detail with my vote post). However, after looking back over the game, I'm starting to feel more uncomfortable about DH. Anyway, we'll see how much common sense I lack once we know Crazy's alignment.

@Winger: I'm sorry, it still seems to me that you were both the first to question Crazy's "Lol" statement, and the first to offer an interpretation of what it might mean. I don't understand the distinction between this suspicion, and the "secondary" suspicion you say DH is pointing out. What suspicion did DH bring up before you did?

[Sundy]

Twistedspoon, do you have any doubts about his claim, or are you pretty sure it's the truth? Also, this:

I'm not quite prepared to leave him to be hammered just yet,

even though It would be so easy to hop off of the CP or Sundy wagon now that their passengers are jumping onto the winger wagon.

The part I italicized hit a bad note with me. You say you're not prepared to hammer, but one pro of voting Winger is that everyone else is doing it and it would be "so easy." This seems more like a good reason from the perspective of someone trying to blend in than someone trying to scum-hunt. Am I reading your quote wrong?

[Sundy]

My interpretation of Crazypianist's post was supposed to be sarcastic... I was trying to say you could project any interpretation onto it, and then giving my own ridiculous example. Sorry if that didn't come across.

[Sundy]

I'm not defending him, but I just interpreted it as that he didn't believe the claim but thought the Mafia would kill him anyways in case the claim was true

In that case he's a lying townie, and lying's not much good anyway. I still have an outstanding question to you TS...

AGar, do you think TS is buddying to Akira and both are scum? Do scum usually buddy together?

unvote

[Sundy]

Twistedspoon, I meant "outstanding" as in "you haven't answered yet." specifically my question in post #152 where you said it would be "so easy" as a reason to vote winger because everyone else is doing it, which doesn't seem like a good reason to me.

AGar, what's the advantage to scum of buddying together, doesn't that just expose them once one flips??

[Sundy]

Personally I think we should lynch one of the people that are "obvscum" according to a certain faction of the town, so we can decide how accurate this faction is, and follow their advice if they're right and take them less seriously / hunt for ulterior motives if they are wrong. Seems like way too much certainty on a whole lot of people for Day 1, but what do I know?

Anyway,

vote: Akira

. for information gathering purposes and because killing a VT wouldn't be THAT bad even if he's good

That's back to L-1 with cecily unvote

[Sundy]

^^ more evidence that Parama is either not so good on the reads, or lying

[Sundy]

Out of curiosity, are you linking me being scum to Akira being town on any particular point of evidence, or just stating in general that I'm likely scum if your main suspicion is wrong?

[Sundy]

*headdesk*

Okay, you're being counter-productive for your win condition, no matter what it is. Besides, I don't think that appeasing the townies and then calling it out is a good tactic, by the way.

Panama has an extremely good point on Sundy though. I'm a lot more confident in my read in Cecily, though.

He didn't make any point at all, he stated something with no argument behind it. How is that "extremely good" in your eyes?

[Sundy]

Well I know for a fact that "the obvious" is not true.

[Sundy]

Ugh I suck. Good job experienced people

[Sundy]

Ugh I suck. Good job experienced people

y u no hammer?

Aren't we waiting for Cecily to divulge everything about everything?

[Sundy]

DH jumped on Akira before Parama

[Sundy]

And Parama posted minutes after I did. What is your point?

That you were the first person to point out the scum-slip from Akira, so you weren't bussing. It's possible that you decided to sacrifice your buddy for town cred (as it is for anyone on the Akira wagon), but I'd say you're among the least likely to have done it.

RBT: What's up?

[Sundy]

AGar, go back and look at Maemuki's posts on Akira/Cecily-- you will find they are not that different from DH's. 6 people chain-lynched, whether they were mistaken, sheeping, or scum. Just pointing out the chain-lynch isn't a very convincing case imo.

RBT: I was mad about all my reads being off

[Sundy]

Alright, so here is my ranking of suspiciousness for all players, from best to worst. I started with DH's catch of Akira's scum-slip and read through the rest of the game, listing posts that pinged me in one way or another. +1 for good ping, -1 for bad ping, and nothing if I don't know how to interpret the post. While summing this up, I realized it's exactly the opposite of who I suspected before, but whatever. This game is a learning curve for me. Also I agree with DH's interpretation of what's going on post-Cecily lynch, so my values depend on that.

Bub > DemonHybrid > Pianist > Parama > Oso > Riceballtail > Agar = Twisted

Bub: Overall, 4 + 0 = 4. Seems to be thinking on his own, not too willing to jump on wagons, and pressuring in a reasonable manner.

Spoiler:

#11: He agrees w/ Parama's defunct theory that Cecily is trying to start a counter-wagon on Twisted, asks Crazy what he thinks about team. Don't like the logic, but looks to be scum-hunting and trying to put pieces together.
#248: This isn't in the ISO, but Akira says Bub is being scummy (+1 for Bub, unless it's WIFOM).
#18: Bub doesn't buy DH case (+1)
#21: Bub doesn't buy arguments on Oso, but points out his own logic (+1)
#22: Maintaining pressure, logical on Oso (+1)

DemonHybrid: Overall: 4 -1 = 3. Mainly I like him because he was on Akira before anyone else was, and though the Cecily lynch sucked, at least he was explaining his logic throughout. I like the way he's reacted to the pressure on him today.

Spoiler:

#16, Catches a scum-slip from Akira(+1)
#20-#22: Agrees with the Cecily/Akira theory, but his points on Cecily not bad(+1)
#26: Votes Cecily without explanation (-1)
#27: Responds very reasonably to Agar's vote by asking why him? (+1)
#31-38: Mostly agree with DH's posts here and how he's interpreting events (+1)

Pianist: Overall: 1 - 1 = 0. Didn't seem like he was rushing things at first, though some of this credibility disappeared. I like his questioning of Twisted (which no one else seems to have brought up?)

Spoiler:

#19: Pianist wants to see results of a night/lynch before deciding on Cecily (+1)
#21: Pianist votes Cecily without further explanation (-1)

Parama: Overall; 3 - 5 = -2. I get the feeling that he might have decided to bus his partner and get another lynch (Cecily) out of it, but overall I'm just not sure how to interpret his posts.

Spoiler:

#19: Joins DH on the Akira wagon (genuine or bussing?)
#20: Declares Cecily to be scum and Twisted to be town, this eventually leads to Cecily's death (-1)
#21: Says Cecily-scum starting counter-wagon on Twisted (-1)
#22: Gives permission to hammer Akira before he posts (-1)
#23: Explains the Cecily/Akira theory, not a bad explanation (+1)
#32: Votes Cecily without further explanation (-1)
#33: Asks for a claim from Cecily (+1)
#42: Academy Awards post! Arrogance or scum mocking town?
#44: Parama accuses Oso/Sundy, likes DH (+1)
#47: Parama says DH is acting scummy (-1)

Oso: Overall: 2 - 3 = -1. I didn't read his posts at first because I was looking at people on wagon, but then I realized he was the only player on neither wagon, which is not good. Wagon building up on him now, but I want to at least bring up a few other players first.

Spoiler:

#21: Oso looks up Akira's response to see when he'll be back online (+1)
#22: Oso says he's willing to hammer, wants Akira's last thoughts (+1)
#24: Oso says he's blown 3 calls if Cecily flips town, changes avatar (!)
#25: Oso says he can see DH being bad, has not been on either wagon (-1)
#29-30: Really confusing posts, not keeping players straight very well (-1)
#33: Still not keeping players straight, flail flail flail (-1)

Riceballtail: Overall: 0 - 2 = -2. The only good thing about her Cecily accusations is that she previously was suspicious of him, though she didn't give much detail. Not a lot coming from the player.

Spoiler:

#6: Riceballtail says "we agree" that Cecily is scum (-1)
#7: RBT votes me with no explanation (-1)

Twistedspoon: Overall: 2-5 = -3. Do like his first reaction to the Akira scum-slip, don't like his attitude towards Cecily as the lynch was happening. Seems like he might have given away that he had knowledge when talking about the traitor/number of bad guys.

Spoiler:

#21, Asks why Akira gave a scum-slip, this gives me some good vibes because wouldn't a Mafia player want to hide that they were thinking the same way scum did in not identifying scum slips?? (+1)
#23, Votes Akira before figuring out why it was a scum-slip (-1)
#28: Cecily vote: "obvious vote is obvious" (-1)
#29: Twistedspoon: "So are we giving her a chance to claim?" Willing to lynch without explanation, don't like it. (-1)
#30: Scummy post from Twistedspoon about existence of traitor (-1)
#33: Twisted says he doesn't know how many bad guys there are (-1)
#35: Twistedspoon votes Oso, kind of like his argument here (+1)

AGar: Overall: 0 - 3 = -3. Disagree with his case on DH, don't like how he tries to associate scummy players with other players by putting words in their mouth, which he was opposed to in the case of Pianist. I don't like that in Parama either, but at least it provokes reactions that help get reads. I think DH is right in his defense, and that AGar comes off looking worse.

Spoiler:

#15, Agar says TS is buddying (-1)
#20: AGar votes DemonHybrid (-1)
#24: AGar seems to have ignored my point on Maemuku in his continuing to attack DH (-1)

I want to see more posts from RBT. Oso wagon is fine, but don't really want to rush through again without more discussion. I don't feel that Twistedspoon and Agar can both be scum given their interactions, but I think one is bad.

Hopefully we can talk about this more rather than chain-lynching again.

[Sundy]

Btw I already know that these numbers are not scientific and only based on my own read of the last few pages, so no need to point out that my numbers don't

actually

mean anything.

[Sundy]

I'm not arguing that you're scum, nor have I assumed that you're scum. I'm pointing to the posts that I believe lend insight into your alignment, whether positive or negative. I know it must be very difficult for you to deal with the idea that anyone would question your alignment rather than taking you at face-value, but life's tough.

#20: What is an anti-miller? It's not on the wiki. Do you think Enigma is lying when he says Cecily is a VT, or does your post mean something else?
#21: He justifiably pointed out something suspicious about Twisted's play w/r/t his vote on Akira. Twisted's reaction to Akira (first saying he didn't know why it was a scum-slip, then voting before he understood why it was a scum-slip) is note-worthy. You immediately assumed that this meant he was evil, and did not entertain another possibility. Either a bad read or an ulterior motive.
#22: Regardless, discussion = helpful. Akira's posts while under pressure might have been enlightening. Cecily's lynch shows the danger of rushing.
#32: Your reasons for suspecting Cecily varied in Day 1 (and I thought some were good), but Day 2 wasn't about pressure or information-gathering, and I don't like that rushed play.
#47: Shrug. I agree with DH that he is questioning AGar as to why he picked him out of all the wagoners from Day 2 to attack. I don't think he was attacking you, though I don't know why he shouldn't have.

[Sundy]

I am totally down for a twisted wagon.

VOTE: Twistedspoon

[Sundy]

Hola. Prod received. Sorry bout that.

I don't really want to hammer. I am feeling more like AGar. RBT, what is VC?

[Sundy]

So how does that work? Traitor knows mafia but not vice versa so they killed him accidentally?

[Sundy]

Stop it DH.

1. I got a prod because that was the first weekend of spring break. I'm sorry guys, but it's not a scum-tell.
2. I wasn't absent from the Akira wagon, I put him back at L-1 right after Cecily unvoted. You already made this mistake, and corrected yourself in the post right after.
3. There were lots of people fighting with him, notably you, and I was one of the people pointing out he was scummy (and as you clarified so often, you were not doing this during your feud). Why would I do that if looking for a traitor?? Also I don't get why Pianist suggested Parama would finger the scum-team openly in the thread. However I do agree he was trying to be recruited by mentioning the traitor so often if you look back over his early posts.

@Oso: "I don't think scum screwed up by NKing Parama" -- I don't understand this statement, can you elaborate? Why would they have wanted to kill him if they knew he was on their team? Also is it guaranteed that scum killed him as opposed to a vigilante or something? (I'm not used to this set-up)
@Agar: I don't get why you're being so optimistic and telling us we have nothing to worry about
@TS: Stop saying you're town! I would believe you more if you didn't say it so often.

[Sundy]

DH found the Akira scum-slip before Parama did, TS

[Sundy]

It is possible that he was recruited I guess, but something ([winger] maybe) interfered with it so Mafia thought he was town. Aside from that possibility, it looks more and more like the NK was done deliberately with knowledge he was the traitor, at least from my POV.

But take that with a grain of salt. My opinion of his ability may not be shared by others so that could invalidate my train of thought completely as to whether he was a high priority for recruitment before NKing.

The possibility that the recruitment failed is the ONLY one I can think of why they would knowingly want to kill their teammate. Why are these two separate possibilities in your mind?

@TS, no: DH found it and voted in the same post, Parama came in two posts after. I do agree that this gives DH town points.

[Sundy]

why do you think the traitor knows who the scum are? I had assumed that the traitor didn't know mafia and the mafia didn't know the traitor. Did anyone else think this?

I'd have imagined it too easy to be recruited if he knew who the scum were :/

Parama implies as much, but who knows whether you can believe him?

First off, I'd like to draw people's attention to the first post, specifically the part that confirms that there's at least 1 mafia traitor in the game. If people don't realize this, it could hurt, because what it means is that scum may well "bus" a buddy and not have a clue that they're bussing - if a mafia traitor is lynched, and they flip mafia traitor, we need to treat it as a town lynch in terms of VCA.

[Sundy]

I may have been wrong on my Oso read, but I'm definitely more willing to lynch Sundy first, as per my vote post. His play hasn't gelled at all, and it's hardly cohesive.

"Hasn't gelled at all"?? That's not an argument. Don't try to pull what you did with RBT & Cecily again. I already demonstrated that the second of your 3 arguments against me is factually inaccurate, and all that's left is that 1) I got a prod and 2) I disagreed with Parama.

Personally I am looking at Oso and Agar most atm.

[Sundy]

Aside from that possibility, it looks more and more like the NK was done deliberately with knowledge he was the traitor, at least from my POV.

...

What motive would there be for scum to intentionally kill Parama? It would hurt their numbers regardless of whether there's 1 or 2 outside of him. You are presenting a string of possibilities as to how it might have happened, but can you imagine one REASON for intentional night bussing... outside of it being an accident or a mistake due to failed recruitment etc.?

[Sundy]

Ok, is anyone else REALLY bothered by the analysis DH is putting up for the NK? Like, it's just not the kind of analysis you expect from a town-player. I'm really uncomfortable with this right now...

Yeah it's a steaming pile of WIFOM. I'm surprised to see it in an experienced player.

Oso, you don't need all that detail on Parama communicating about the traitor. Do a word search of his ISO for "traitor," that should tell you all you need to know w/r/t hints.

I don't like the Oso/DH reads on Parama. Not only are they inexplicably arguing Parama was killed by scum with knowledge of his alignment, they are trying to glean lessons from that improbable event as if it wasn't WIFOM central to do so. I find it hard to believe that both can believe what they're spouting about parama. However I also find it difficult to believe they are both scum

[Sundy]

Read. We're specifically stating that its very likely scum killed Parama because they thought he was town and was a threat to them over killing obvtown TS. I never said he was recruited and was neutral to the idea, favoring a reactional scumhunting approach over a theorized one.

Also, you're fencesitting with your reads.

Read. Oso's #51 is all about how he's not buying the argument you ascribe to both of you: that Parama was a threat to a certain player. He has tentatively argued along the lines I described (though you have not when I look back over):

Aside from that possibility, it looks more and more like the NK was done deliberately with knowledge he was the traitor, at least from my POV.

Anyway I'm fence-sitting because I'm not sure what to think yet. Now that you've helpfully distinguished your two arguments, you look scummier. He's comin up with every possible scenario no matter how contorted or unlikely, you're trying to push a lynch based on a single-minded form of NK speculation.

[Sundy]

Look, DH, Oso did not specifically agree with your argument as you claim. The MAX he did was say Parama's accusations may not have been erratic, and that Parama may have been killed because he was a wildcard in general. Here are fairly representative quotes:

They probably saw Parama as more of a threat, hence my theory.

@DH
To the above quote, I looked. I don't see that anyone still alive had any reason to think Parama was a direct threat them. ....Your theory: I can find no such player as you describe, except maybe me. Certainly no one else alive had even a small reason to fear him for his case building skills this game. But, even before his flip, by the way he was posting and throwing votes around, anyone at L-1 with Parama holding the hammer would have had plenty to fear from him. So someone pro-actively taking him out of play for that reason makes some sense.

You're trying to argue that we can find scum by looking at who Parama pressured. Happily Oso has not expressed support for that theory. This is happy partly because it's a bad theory and partly--even if you assume this was the reason for the NK-- there's no reason it should point to a specific player. Why me, and not you once he turned on you? Why assume he was killed in response to pressure, and not assume Parama was buddying scum, as Pianist suggests? The problem with your approach is that you're trying to figure out what a dead player meant to convey, and eating NK speculation as the cherry on top. Fuzzy fuzz fuzz.

Please make a case that doesn't involve you interpreting Parama's posts willy-nilly as you see fit. Same goes for Oso. But the difference between your two approaches is that he's considering every possibility even horribly unlikely ones (and I already acknowledged my mistake: you didn't say scum intentionally killed their partner), whereas you've latched onto one, even when presented with contradictory arguments. This is comparatively scummy on your part.

But no, I haven't "suddenly" made a decision. Do you see a vote from me? No. Then I didn't decide.

[Sundy]

Alrighty then Oso. Let's go.

I didn't go back to get confirmation he was the traitor, the dead post does that.

???

I'm not saying you needed confirmation he was a Mafia traitor. I'm saying your theory that Parama's OMGUS acronym was a "subtle," "elegant" and "frigin' brilliant" clue that he was traitor MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE because Parama made actual signals in ISO #4:

Okay, it's Page 3, so one scum should be blatantly obvious by now, if not two.

First off, I'd like to draw people's attention to the first post, specifically the part that confirms that there's at least 1 mafia traitor in the game. If people don't realize this, it could hurt, because what it means is that scum may well "bus" a buddy and not have a clue that they're bussing - if a mafia traitor is lynched, and they flip mafia traitor, we need to treat it as a town lynch in terms of VCA.

ISO #5:

crapplesauce, I already forgot about the traitor >.< [winger] COULD be scum if crazy's the traitor, but not vice-versa.

ISO #6:

I give [winger] a pass because he's not scum traitor to crazypianist mafia, though the inverse could be true. Unless the traitor doesn't know their mafia, which would be just plain unfair.

Given all of this evidence, how could you POSSIBLY decide that Parama's OMGUS acronym meant something, and ignore all of these bread crumbs???????? Why make something up out of thin air when the evidence is right before you?

I went back looking for some sort of pattern because I had dismissed Parama's behavior as simply being erratic/very opportunistic because he was scum(this game) and because of playstyle.

Can you explain your thinking here a little bit more? AFTER finding out he was bad, you went back to re-read the thread because you had ALREADY dismissed him as scum this game? Then why weren't you trying to get him lynched then??

As the traitor, he has 100% knowledge of the teams.

How do you know this for sure?

Point being, I wanted to show why you hadn't been under any suspicion by me before the re-read.

Why do you care what I think? This reminds me of one of Winger's criticisms of you:

multiple times makes comments in the light of protection his own image. He says things like, "At the risk of being accused of overthinking", or "Call me paranoid", or "At the risk of starting an MD discussion". This kind of language strikes me as off.

But, when I made that post, you were the only one to show an outright aversion(?) (<-Having trouble coming with the right word on that one) to the thought. I can't explain why that bothers me, but it does.

Yeah because it looked to me like a scum slip.

Explaining why Parama is (dead Mafia Traitor) by MISTAKE.

What are you talking about? Expound on your criticism please.

I'm halfway through a re-read, so I'll make another post. But in the meantime, I'm fondly remembering the good old days when we were killing Oso.

[Sundy]

How are you evil, Oso? Let me count the ways.

1. Oso saying scum killed traitor on purpose
2. Hey, remember when Parama saved Oso by deflecting the wagon onto Twisted?
3. Communication between Parama and Oso?
4. Defeatism
5. Loves to think like scum
6. Tries to claim that Twisted's alignment means he's innocent
7. Forgot about (inferior) Bub case

I don't think it's all plausible that scum intentionally killed off the traitor, and I thought it very bizarre when Oso claimed as much in a p-edit. I doubt he'd have had to back himself into a corner with posts like these if he hadn't included that p-edit. In my mind this is part of a larger pattern of thinking like scum.* (Look for the * for more thinking like scum.)

When I asked him where he came up with this crazy idea, he said he'd go do some research on how this could possibly occur:

In addition to getting a much longer post together at the moment, I'm also looking for actions that I would expect to see if Parama was intentionally NKed and they knew he was the traitor. Not finding anything worth bringing out except as an 'in case' scenario. 'In case' we flip scum today or tomorrow and the game doesn't end.

But all he comes up with is that Mafia wanted to lull town into complacency and so they killed one of their own. Now if someone can find ONE SINGLE EXAMPLE of that tactic happening on these forums, let me know. But I'd wager it's never happened, and personally I don't think any town-aligned player would come up with that theory, and--after being pressured on it--Oso now seems to have abandoned it.

NOW: THERE IS ONE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT CONCLUSION FROM THIS ANALYSIS. It is this: that

Parama was never successfully recruited

(unless there's another killer at work). Please keep this in mind for the future.

It's been correctly pointed out by many that looking at Parama is a helpful thing for town to do. I completely agree, but I think players are being far too quick to make something of his scum reads etc., even though in the third post of the game, he made it CLEAR that he KNEW would be analyzed after dying. So it is probably in town's best interest to realize that it's gonna be SUPER TRICKY to sort out the WIFOM!!

However, there is one interesting thing to note about Parama's behavior: When Oso was at the height of his pressure, Twisted unvoted. Less than 10 posts later, Parama was starting a Twisted wagon. This builds up and up, we all know what happened, and then the pressure's off of Twisted. And instantly Oso decides that he's "unpressurized enough to go on," even though none of the arguments against him had been answered. And I know he's busy with work, but too bad he couldn't step in to defend Twisted during that whole process.

Now, let's take a closer look at Parama's actual vote of Twisted:

Twisted knows Oso won't flip scum, because Twisted's the mafia traitor.
And he wants to chain lynches to ensure a scum victory. Since he knows Oso is town, the second statement is there so he can push AGar tomorrow for a "valid" reason.

And the day before Parama's vote, Oso had this to say:

We still have an unknown number of scum out there but there is at least one more mafia and the traitor.

Say the recruitment of Parama didn't go through the first day (a possibility Oso goes AT LENGTH to disprove in his posts). Say Oso knows this because he is scum. Day 2, scum try someone else-- it doesn't work. On Day 3, Oso says the traitor is still out there, and Parama responds with a vote on Twisted that mentions the mafia traitor. He says that Twisted is the traitor because he "knows" Oso won't flip scum. What if Parama is the traitor, deflecting blame from Oso, and then pointing out AGAIN that he's the traitor, because he "knows" Oso IS scum??

Again this is all SPECULATION, but I don't know as it's any different from Oso's speculation right #577. It seems like a lot stronger case to me that this interaction is a signal, because it's the FIRST time Parama mentions the traitor since his flurry of posts in the beginning of the game, and it's explicitly saying that Twisted is the traitor because Oso is innocent i.e. Twisted is not the traitor because Oso is scum because Parama is the traitor. QED.

VOTE: Oso

*Add to this was the defeatist attitude that he had while the pressure was building on him, looks like a guilty conscience to me:
"I know you've blown the call on me but ,eh, trying to convince you of that is probably not going to work."
"This probably seals my lynch."
"To answer any doubts about my stance on any of the players at the moment"

*And in general there are lots of examples of him thinking from a scummy mindset and sharing that with the class, and posts like these:

Look at the state of the game at that point and put yourself back in that day, take the Akira/Cecily flips out of your mind. If she gets any more flustered, there is a good chance the Akira wagon could transfer over to her. A town flip of Cecily strengthens any defense Akira gives the next day. Failing that, since Akira probably is going to be lynched at that point, Bub isn't the real driving force behind the lynch at that point. Parama is. Any accusations of "too easy, that must have been a bus" fall on Parama and perhaps DH as the wagon starter, but not on Bub, he has insured that he prominent at casting suspicions at Akira but he hasn't voted Akira, he is being courteous to Parama by 'holding off'.

*Or the time that he said Twisted being a confirmed townie means that he's a confirmed townie. When Twisted responded by saying "WTF are you talking about, I'm still suspicious of you" (I'm paraphrasing), he says:

The second we get a town flip on either you or me, the other becomes almost unlynchable.

Not to mention that his gigantic Bub suspicion (which he'd already forgot about once when he decided to go after DH), he's now dropped again in favor of a case on me.

OH, and about his Bub case. The main reason it was so much weaker than Bub's case on him (and Oso really picked up the Bub case only after Bub started accusing him, very OMGUS) is that he singled out Bub as being responsible for the Cecily lynch. Notice how PARAMA didn't get called out for that, despite being 2x as responsible. Oso's case on Bub never made sense to me in that regard.

Then from his giant ISO #40 where he voted Bub, by his ISO #44 he's changed his mind ONLY because he's still alive and Bub would have killed him, and basically he drops the Bub suspicion. And now he's onto his next suspicion.

Personally I think we should hang him high right now.

I voted above in case you missed it in the awesomeness of the case.

[Sundy]

Bad job AGar.

I can claim upon request, but please, I'd far rather that this wagon re-direct onto scum. My case against Oso is delightful.

[Sundy]

anyways, I thought you were the one to suggest 3 original mafioso?

Quite. Oso has a long and twisted history of "speculation" as to how many Mafia are left.

His post today:

As a modification of that post, you can put town reads everyone but Sundy.

One scum left

means everybody else has to be town, even you Bub

But yesterday he had this to say:

That's why I finally came to the conclusion it was a mistake that Parama was killed rather than deliberate. A kill of a townie last night

puts us in lylo today. 4:3

. So the initial shock of having Parama, a player I'd have thought would be a good player for an early recruitment attempt, show up dead immediately triggered a 'knee-jerk' "No way in hell that happened by accident" response.

Oso, why did you state that there would have been 3 scum left alive today if Parama had lived?? Especially because earlier in the game, you stated that if Parama was killed deliberately, that means there were 2 scum left? And you already decided he COULDN'T have been killed deliberately, so shouldn't that leave us in a 6:1 scenario by your logic? Why all the confusion (dare I say dissimulation?) about how many baddies are left?

[Sundy]

Ah right. I see what you are saying. It looked to me like you were accidentally acknowledging that if Parama had lived, we'd for sure be in LyLo today. But what you actually said was that today would be a 4:3 LyLo if Parama had lived, but that was conditional on there being 2 scum-buddies after Akira's death. You eventually rejected this possibility because if there were 2 scum-buddies, they wouldn't have killed him intentionally, because they could get to LyLo by keeping the traitor alive. I had to read your posts a couple times to get it.

However, you're still bad. As evidenced by your post-mortem analysis of Parama's posts, you missed his cues about being the traitor, even though you were looking for them (just as I'm sure you were looking for cues when the traitor was still alive). After you killed him and realized you'd dealt your team a mortal blow, your brain went into shock and you started inventing impossibilities, hence your distress and confusion at the beginning of Day 4.

I just want to quickly address your case on me.
During all of page 2 in your ISO, you have nothing to say aside that I'm "dead neutral" and variations thereof
Day 4, #51: You use me to prove that Parama was fighting with lots of people "like an erratic wind," no suspicion voiced. I would guess that your hidden agenda here is to show that Parama pressuring you doesn't mean anything.
Day 4, #53: You vote me. Your evidence is my "interaction" with Parama, my failure to vote on you when you were L-1, and my suspicion about your reaction to Parama's death
Day 4, #54: You reiterate your points
Day 4, #55: Decline to comment on possible scum-partnerships because you're "confident" that I'll flip scum
Day 4, #56: You respond to my growing suspicions of you, no new evidence
Day 4, #57: Reiterate point that I was communicating with Parama

As we can see, all of your arguments appear in post #53, coincidentally the first one in which you suspect me. Everything after that is merely an expansion of your point or stating that I'm scum without evidence. So let's take the 3 arguments you made in post #53.

Interaction with Parama

Town, please compare these two posts and tell me which looks more like a Mafia traitor trying to communicate. Pay attention to the context, and how many times the word "traitor" appears in the second link.
Parama to Sundy
Parama mentions the traitor, says Traitor is Twisted and Oso is innocent

My failure to vote on you at L-1

Oso, your original interpretation of my lack of vote on you is plausible (and accurate). It's a similar read that Twistedspoon gave to me. After giving a good interpretation of my play, you inexplicably ditch it on a re-read. Only because you need someone to vote. So after listing reasons why it would be INCREDIBLY easy for me to hammer you, and suggesting that I don't hammer because I'm "unsure town," you then decide I'm not town and I was just exhibiting paranoia instead. This accusation is essentially a town-read disguised as a scum-read.

What I think is telling is that he doesn't vote me. I'm below the scum line in Post-376 and even though I don't agree with Bub's points against me, some are defensible. Sundy could have totally sheeped Bub's case and in the next day hash-up of the lynch, made Bub look like the bad guy (Parama could have probably done the same). The only reasons I can think he didn't do so is because of paranoia or he is unsure town (<-that is what I was initially going with when Sundy didn't vote me: That he was unsure town). In light of a re-read, I don't think that anymore.

My suspicion about your reaction to Parama's death

Uh, this is little more than disguised OMGUS. You acknowledge that other people also found this suspicious and even voted you for it, but for some reason you single me out. Why? Not entirely clear.

Can someone please hammer the opportunistic, lying scum??

[Sundy]

Not sure what you are getting at there.

Parama wasn't killed by Mafia who knew his role. Either they didn't know his role, there was a bus driver (not possible in mini games) or he was killed by someone else, possibly a vig or SK.

Crazy, I really wish you had hammered rather than making me claim, but whatever. Odds are Oso is the only scum left. He is so absurdly scummy that I think he's bad and on the off-chance that he's got a partner, we'll have to figure it out with 1 more PR exposed.

I am

Town Watcher

. I know Mae was also, but I guess there's two this game.

[Sundy]

Sure.

Night 1, I targeted AGar. This is my first non-Newbie game where I didn't play a VT, so I wasn't quite sure how to use the role, and I targeted someone I found suspicious. However, no one targeted AGar, and from the way the mod worded the results, I knew I should start looking at people I thought would be targeted.

Night 2, I targeted Parama. Maemuki visited him that night.

Night 3, I watched Bub. No one visited him.

[Sundy]

Oso, you never answered Twisted's question in #573.

[Sundy]

Reading from start of D4. Will probably make a decision when I get to the end.

Good, please end this game by killing ObvscumOso and then I will have 5 completed games to apply for IC in the newbie game thread queue yesss.

[Sundy]

I watched DemonHybrid like an idiot, and my search produced no results.

I was debating between TwistedSpoon and DemonHybrid, and originally elected to watch TwistedSpoon, but changed it yesterday afternoon much to my chagrin. My reasoning was that if I wasn't killed tonight despite claiming PR, then the only reason to keep me alive would be to lynch me. In that case, whoever's scum would need to get on my case and act as if I would have acted, and if I was scum I wouldn't kill Twisted who gave me a "town" read, but instead go for one who had voted me. DH was the next most "confirmed" town after TS.

Sorry guys. I definitely tunneled on Oso yesterday. I wasn't sure what to think, and then his attacks on me seemed very scum-motivated and I was unimpressed with his defense and thoroughly convinced myself he was bad. I'll re-read and give my thoughts, but I have a paper due tomorrow so that will have to wait for a few hours.

[Sundy]

Why wouldn't there be 2 of the same role in one game, AGar?

Your mentality--if followed by town-- can only lead to two possibilities:
1) You accidentally lynching another townie
2) You successfully defeating town for at least 1 more round

Either one of these two outcomes sucks. I also really don't like how you haven't advanced a single argument against me since Day 1 (in response to my first post). On Day 4 when you voted for me, all you talked about was DH. Better explanations to justify your vote please?

[Sundy]

Why wouldn't there be 2 of the same role in one game, AGar?

Because a watcher is a retardedly broken role in the first place - it's an investigative role that can nail scumbags without any skill. You watch a player everyone calls town, the scum have to kill him, and profit. Two of them makes it damn near impossible for the scumteam to submit a kill without being trapped. Mafia watcher is completely plausible, however. You could be a watcher, you're just not town aligned.

If you're suggesting that the number of PRs makes the game unbalanced, then my guess is that we're in LyLo right now. There are already 2 dead PRs, and I am also a PR. Everyone left alive is unclaimed, which means there could be a couple more.

Either way, balance might require that there are more scum than just 3.

[Sundy]

Does anyone think 4 mafia vs. 2 watchers and a jail keeper is possible?

The real question is whether 3 mafia vs. 2 watchers and a jail keeper is possible. If not, it's time to look for scum partnerships.

[Sundy]

OK scum-team speculation time. I am wondering about an Agar/Crazy possibility.

The first suspicion of the game is DH on Crazy. On #45, Agar explicitly started a counter-wagon on Winger, and continued to advocate for it. Eventually there are 6 people on the Winger wagon: Oso, Sundy, Crazy, Agar, Akira, Cecily. Perhaps it's unlikely that all 3 scum (excluding the traitor, who was happily bussing?) jumped onto his wagon, but I am still looking at Agar for starting it.

Funny/guilty(?) exchange between Crazy/Agar:

Get out of my head Agar

And

for those who will inevitably misinterpret it

, that was a joke.

Two more points against Agar:

1) When Agar voted DH, Parama said DH was scummy for not responding to Agar's accusations. Agar eventually abandoned this idea to vote for Oso. I still don't understand why Agar chose DH as opposed to ANY of the other people who chain-lynched, and at the time I listed Agar as the #1 scummiest player because of it.

2) Also he is the first to push the idea that we are in a good position with a 6:1 scenario.

[Sundy]

I have no intention of hammering.

Bub & DH: should we lynch AGar or CP first??

[Sundy]

Claim CP?

[Sundy]

If there is a scum-team, then given the vote distribution, there are only 2 possible scum-teams:

DH/Bub
Crazy/Agar
(DH/Crazy could be a team, but then it doesn't matter which one dies; Agar/Bub could be a scum-team, but then either one could have hammered an innocent long ago)

1) Agar started a counter-wagon when Crazy was being called out
2) DH caught a scum-slip and nailed the first scum
3) DH believed my claim rather than pushing an easy lynch, whereas Agar put me at L-1 with no explanation

If you want to refute that, CP, you've got a couple hours.

[Sundy]

Then explain why DH/Bub are scum, Agar.

[Sundy]

Voting time. If Bub/DH are scum-team at LyLo, I don't see motivation for DH to suddenly defend me when AGar was perfectly willing to lynch me, which would have been the necessary number of votes for a mis-lynch.

It's possible there's 1 scum left, but given my role I doubt it. I don't like Pianist's defense of Agar, DH was accusing RBT of lurking, and he certainly did give an explanation for his switched view of me.

vote: Pianist

[Sundy]

I hope you are right DH. About Pianist messing with us.

[Sundy]

Damn Enigma, why you so enigmatic?

[Sundy]

bah. go town!

[Sundy]

LOL OMG

[Sundy]

That was a really suspenseful and awesome game!!

I feel bad for tunneling Oso & CP to death.

[Sundy]

I admit, I totally screwed up the night game.

Ditto this