Animal Rescue: petsPick (Game Over!)

[saulres]

(This was written while I was somewhat following the game in the hopes I could replace in. I need to do a full read-through but wanted to come in swinging )

Hi everybody! I've been following this game somewhat (seeing as how it's practically a sequel to Magician's Mafia, given the playerlist. And boy was that a flashback when Sotty and VPB were going at each other on D1) and I was hoping for a chance to replace in. And it'll be nice to play with Jason who ran the first game I ever played on this site.

One comment before I get into things: I've found a new drinking game! You just need to take a drink anytime Amrun says "reading comprehension" or some variation thereof. I've already had two drinks this game

Now down to business. I need to reread, because like I said, I've only been partially following. But I did make a list of reads as I was following, and did a few ISOs, and here's where I lean right now:

Town

Quilford
Kublai Khan

Null -- basically all those I haven't ISOed and don't have a gut feel on

Vi
Sotty7
Ghostlin
VP Baltar -- although Llamarble's WIFOM claim means VP may be scum - waiting on VB to comment
Untrod Tripod
glowball

Scummy

Jason
Amrun
xvart
Llamarble: Struck me as town or extremely daring scum. Fitting avatar. <- notes made before his claim. Moved to scummy based on 850 (see below)

One of two

Cogito Ergo Sum: Null or bad scum
DDD: maybe scum, maybe 3rd party. Either way, lynch.

Questions about things which bug me:

@Ghostlin: In 478 and 479 you refer to D1 as "last night". Explain to me how that is

not

a scumslip.

@Llamarble: In 139 you say you did someting "to look town". That strikes me as odd. Town looks town by their play, scum are the only ones who have to do something to try to look town.

Then, in 850, you said "we" (see below) don't know if the 3rd party is a killing role, but in the same post you said "there weren't as many kills as expected". So you expected more? I guess the "we" refers to your scumbuddies then?

Jason's defense of Llama and calling Kublai's 859 rubbish in 862 is just more proof of his scumminess.

(more later)

[saulres]

I hope it wasn't as bad as Magician mafia

Nope, it was a lot shorter, a lot less heated, and in this one, you came out on top.

Another question for Ghostlin:

if the DV can help us with the game because scum might have to be more careful with their votes

Please explain this logic. In what way do scum have to be more careful with their votes due to the presence of a (presumed townie) doublevoter? Town needs to be more careful, but scum?

[saulres]

Scumslip found!

The results are unsurprising but significant considering there was only one kill last night: 4 mafia, 1 third party, 10 town

To show 15 people, these results must have been supplied before the night kill took place.

BUT:

Night Resolution
1. Roleblocks
2. Protective Roles
3. Mafia Kills
4. Vigilante Kills
5. Serial Killer Kills
6. Other Kills
7. Miscellaneous
8. Investigations

Miscellaneous and Investigations occur

after

all kills. Meaning, Quil's results should have shown only 14 people.

VOTE: Quilford

Note possible Quilford - Llamarble scumteam setting up the false claim in advance:

What kind of setup with an SK could make sense? 1 v 4 v 11?

[saulres]

I believe if submitted N1, he would have gotten the entire results from D1 on the setup.

Why do you make that assumption?

The mod has confirmed for me that given the order of night events, then if, say, hypothetically, the Mafia and an SK both submit kills, and the Mafia's kill was on the SK, then the SK's kill will not go through. That tells me that actions are resolved as they're gotten to, not at the beginning and then disseminated when they're gotten to.

So if they doesn't resolve until the point the list says they do, then either the mod made a mistake or Quil did. And the mod has told me he won't confirm or deny, at least not publicly in the thread.

[saulres]

Well yes. Which is why it would be a good fake claim, and why I feel the numbers as presented are a fake claim slip.

[saulres]

Would like to see someones not on my scummy list stop trying to shut down the argument.

Just sayin'.

[saulres]

Fine then.

Unvote

But it's not the same setup speculation. It's looking at something very concrete in a story being told. That's how I caught two scum when I replaced into Small Town Scumbags; one of the scum was having a bad day and made a slip-up which I (eventually) caught.

Vi, I was retiring, but when I saw this player list I started watching it and when I saw what a fun setup it looked like I kept bothering (pestering?) zoraster to let me replace in if the opportunity presented itself.

As to voting for xvart? Or even DDD? They're both on my gut scummy side from when I was following the game instead of playing it, but you know me, I'm hesitant to vote unless I see something very solid I can sink my teeth into, or an ongoing pattern. I'm still rereading in depth (only at post 222 now) and haven't

quite

encountered anything that fits either of those bills, and there's still time before the day ends.

Also I'm getting used to seeing you "talk" like a normal person. It's weird

[saulres]

@saulres: Speculating on WHAT the third party is, or whether Quilford is an SK, is a little fruitless at this juncture.

But -- that's not my speculation. I didn't do that, and I'm not going to do that at this time. I was identifying what I believe to be a scumslip on a false role claim.

For far out speculation, I'd go with "Quilford's pet must be a horse who stomps its hooves when counting something" to get a role like that. But I'm not going there.

...

Damn.

[saulres]

Heh. I can't understand Vi even if she's not posting with a post restriction

glowball, why are you happy that I'm town? Last time we played together we were both town and the scum had a clean sweep.

[saulres]

@xvart: In 154 you asked lewarcher to tell you his pet's name. Why in the world did you want to know that?

[saulres]

I was actually feeling iffy on Jason, but further reading has him leaning town for me, just townWRONG. The only real twitch I got was him listing a 3rd party in the big catch up post of 426.

Although I think Jason's scummy, I have to ask you about this twitch. I don't understand why you got it and I'd like to know what you saw that I'm missing.

[saulres]

Well at the time of that post there was disagreement on lewarcher's alignment, and plenty of people were thinking that lew might have been a 3rd party. Jason had lew under that section, which was called "Leaning scum/Scummy/3rd party". So it's really null.

[saulres]

I've been thinking more about Quil's play, and I have a plan to prove his claim which I don't want to reveal quite yet. But it hinges on Quil taking another count tonight.

@Quil

: Any problem with taking another count tonight?

[saulres]

I've been thinking more about Quil's play, and I have a plan to prove his claim which I don't want to reveal quite yet. But it hinges on Quil taking another count tonight.

@Quil

: Any problem with taking another count tonight?

I retract this question. My plan was based on an error in the ruleset which zoraster just corrected.

[saulres]

I'm up to 759 and going bleary-eyed from all this reading. I don't think much is going to change after that from where I am right now until someone flips.

At the moment, I'm good with lynching any of the following (in no particular order). When a good wagon builds on any of them I'll join it.

Quilford - I'm still not convinced I'm wrong about the scumslip. His response to my contesting it is exactly what I'd expect scum to say, with nothing more. Last time that happened to me it was scum who couldn't figure out anything better to do. I'm not seeing a difference here.

VPB - His arguments almost all seem to be missing something, and at least on a couple of occasions it's been selective comments which don't look at the big picture. Seems to me he's intentionally trying to confuse people who don't read his references.

xvart - Contradictions (106 - "I don't really care so much about the town read from a vote post." 116 - "I have a hard time swallowing that you had a gut scum read on anyone based on one purely RVS post."), general fishiness.

DDD - His D1 posts all look like active lurking to me. His argument against my previous slot-holder sounds so wrong I have trouble believing it's serious. He also somewhat self-damns himself in 629 when he says "When I'm mafia all I want to do is fade into the background of the game" -- isn't that what he's been doing?

Jason - I'm having trouble finding any serious scumhunting (or non-fluff, really) from him other than his attacks on glowball/llamamarble. In addition, when he gave his reads in his catch-up post, he didn't give reads for DDD, xvart, KK, or VPB. Since three of those are also on my scumlist it struck me as odd.

[saulres]

Now don't you go putting Jason's words in my mouth!

The xvart wagon doesn't look particularly viable at the moment. And you're not even on it...

Looking at the current wagons, I'm intrigued by the one on Jason, since out of the three people on it, 2 are on my scumlist. I wonder what would happen if that wagon got bigger...

VOTE: Jason

[saulres]

Post 960.

Oh well huh. Look at that. I forgot to look for changes since the last posted post count.

Even so I'd like to leave it where it is for a bit to see what happens.

Decided I will claim because it does validate what Llama is saying...I was indeed blocked last night.

That has to be the weakest claim I've ever seen, since we're in a game full of roles. And it doesn't really confirm anything, because if Llama really did track Reck to you, then Reck did the block (via jailkeeping), and that doesn't exonerate you from the suspicion that you're the 3rd-party (assuming Quil's telling the truth), and that you're possibly a killer of some sort.

I'm not really sure what you were hoping to gain with that, other than to confirm that Llama tracked you -- which could be a role for either alignment.

[saulres]

If Sotty joins this tasty wagon, the target of which she has repeatedly cast suspicion about but failed to vote

His vote's currently on glowball, isn't it?

[saulres]

"

the target of which

she has repeatedly cast suspicion about but

failed to vote

"

I was tired and thought the second bold referred to the target (Jason), not sotty.

But I'm still tired, so if that's wrong again just ignore me

[saulres]

I'm a bit pressed for time this weekend, and stopped my full read-through before the Ghostlin wagon got going. He wasn't on my short list so I'm reluctant to move there; could someone with more time please link me to the arguments for it?

Also at the moment I'm willing to lynch anyone on my short list; if someone with more time could get everyone's short lists then maybe we could find a common target to get rid of?

I'm sorry for asking others to do this; if it weren't a long weekend I would have done all that already.

[saulres]

Fine.

Unvote

Vote: xvart

4-3

[saulres]

You know what I don't like?

When people don't follow this rule:

You are expected to post at least once a day. A prod will be sent out if you have not posted in the past 48 hours (and you were capable of doing so).

There are two people (Jason and DDD), both on my scumlist, who haven't indicated they're on V/LA and haven't posted in over 48 hours, but what really irks me is that one of them has posted multiple times elsewhere. And that one is still on my scumlist, and still has a viable wagon. So I'm getting back on it.

Unvote
Vote: Jason

Maybe that'll motivate him to post here. It'll be interesting to see where he moves his vote to.

I'd also like to see which wagon Ghostlin wants to move his vote to. And I wonder if Roxi will vote before the hammer this time so we can look for scum amongst the hammerers as the game goes on instead of having that option taken away from us by a chicken townie. (Not a townie with a chicken, that would be a weird pet. Unless you were on a farm or something. And if that's the case, don't make me come to the farm to choke your chi-- err... never mind.)

Would still love to see what the case on Ghostlin is...

Amrun ( 0 ) (L - 8 )
Cogito Ergo Sum ( 0 ) (L - 8 )
Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 0 ) (L - 8 )
Ghostlin ( 5 ) Amrun, Cogito Ergo Sum, VP Baltar, Kublai Khan, Quilford, (L - 3 )
glowball ( 1 ) JasonT1981, (L - 7 )
JasonT1981 ( 4 ) glowball, Debonair Danny DiPietro, xvart, saulres, (L - 4 )
Kublai Khan ( 0 ) (L - 8 )
Llamarble ( 1 ) Ghostlin, (L - 7 )
Quilford ( 0 ) (L - 8 )
Sotty7 ( 0 ) (L - 8 )
saulres ( 0 ) (L - 8 )
Vi ( 0 ) (L - 8 )
VP Baltar ( 0 ) , (L - 8 )
xvart ( 2 ) Sotty7, Vi, Llamarble, (L - 5 )
No Lynch ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 1 ) Roxi,
Total Votes ( 15 )
Needed to Lynch [ 8 ]

[saulres]

...

I only have time to quick-scan the arguments against Ghostlin (I'll have more time on Monday before deadline to do so) but from what I'm seeing, I see people voting for him not looking at the whole picture (his ISO).

For just one example:

Post 568
My original unanswered case.

"You jumped on the lewarcher82 wagon for the "glowball is fishing" argument"

Let's look at how that wagon formed. Vi started it at the top of page 3. That's page 3, when not even all the players in the game had posted even once yet. Then, in short order, with no reasoning whatsoever, CES,

xRECKONERx

, and Untrod Tripod (my former slotholder) all voted for lew. Only then, in 61, did Ghostlin "jump" on the wagon, but at least he had the decency to put forth an argument against Lew. The other three didn't.

Next, Ghostlin's original scumreads are here. No votes at all on Llama at the time, so to say he was "trying to groundfloor on the new big wagon" later is completely not taking into account his scumread of llama at the time.

I'll do more research on the claims on Monday but I'm not so convinced, especially when one of them is "he's posting in other games but not here". At least he's forthcoming about it. Jason, who's doing the same thing, keeps ignoring that charge.

[saulres]

I'm sorry, I didn't realize 15 posts in another game since your Wednesday post in this game counted as "hardly".

[saulres]

how do you know Roxi is controlled by a townie?

I don't. But without some for sure way of identifying Roxi's owner, there's no way to look at a pattern of hammers and the timings thereof as a useful tell (as I did in my last game to help identify the final scum).

saulres looks really bad with her push on me over posting.

"His" please

Also please explain how this is "distorting things": I said you were posting in other games but not here, but didn't specifically refer to after Thursday; you're the one who brought that timeframe in. On Thursday you made five posts in another game, and none here. On Wednesday, after your last post in this thread, you made 10 in the other game. Last Sunday you posted 9 times in other games, and only once in this one, to say "Will be back fully tomorrow. Been out a bit this weekend." I could go back.

That, to me, is posting actively in other games and not in this one. At least own that for whatever reason, you're putting more effort into the other ones you're playing than into this one.

[saulres]

Jason, you're just not getting it. I never claimed the problem was only from Thanksgiving forward. I'm saying it's been going on for a while. For example, let's look at last weekend, specifically Nov 20.

Will be back fully tomorrow. Been out a bit this weekend.

That's the extent of your contribution that day. To

this

game. Meanwhile in other games you made

ten

posts, none of them saying anything resembling what you posted here.

If at any point along the line of my attack (especially early on) you said anything like "Well this game was boring me" or "<redacted> is much more entertaining" I'd accept that. But to argue this:

The only game that had any real attention from me was my own one.

That's disingenuous at best, scummy at worst. My vote is with "scummy". Anyone looking at your post history will easily be able to determine the only game that has any real attention from you other than the one you're running, and it's not this one.

Related:

Vi

, remember when you were saying the same thing about GNR and I looked into it and you were elated? Why isn't this the same thing?

[saulres]

Vi (and everyone else), it's not just the posting discrepancies that make me think Jason's scum. Look at his ISO. I find his first scumhunting post at... um... well, a weak one at his ISO 15. There's a

lot

of defensiveness, though. His big catch-up post includes setup speculation, arguments against setup speculation, game theory (with includes either a townslip or an intentional redirect at "Scum is multiple and can chat at night" -- hard to tell which it is), and in a couple of places, reads. There's very little scumhunting in that large, large post...

The he starts focussing on his glowball/Llamamarble wagon, and there's a lot more of nothing. So when he does post, it's mostly active lurking.

Finally, there's the exclusion of the people I noted in my scumreads post. I know that when I was working on my initial post for when I replaced in, I was looking at everyone, because I didn't know what alignment anyone had. You'll see I even have UT in that post. But once I got the role PM, to rethink reads, I removed UT from the list because I

know

my own alignment. But Jason -- Jason said

nothing

about several people in his big catch-up post, where he gave his reads on everyone -- that tells me he knows more about them than he's letting on.

pedit: DDD is a fine lynch, but given the timeframe we have left I don't see it as viable.

ppedit: ... Jason, you're killling me. You said that nowhere in the game, and you can't just call V/LA on one game and make multiple posts in another. Give me a break.

[saulres]

what it was zoraster changed in the rules after Quilford made his claim

That the game had a day start, and not a night start. If you look at post 1, rule 5, you'll see he crossed out night and replaced it with day.

I had thought it was a sure tell that Quil was lying if the game had a night start, because I can't imagine a census keeper

not

using that ability in order to share it right off the bat. So I tried confirming some timing with zoraster, and he was grateful that I caught the copy-paste error and surprised that no one else had.

I'm not jumping onto a new wagon now because we still have Llama and Ghostlin to move their votes and I'd like to see where they go. I should be online right through deadline (a first for me!) and can move to another of my scumreads if their wagons become more viable.

[saulres]

some of this game is instinct.

Learned that very much last game, which is why I'm using that a large part of my scumreads.

I've said before but I'll repeat -- I won't have time to fully review the case on Ghostlin until tomorrow. Maybe I'll be convinced, maybe not. But I'm not jumping there just on your say-so (seeing as, you know, you're one of my scumreads).

[saulres]

Google shows me this one which I like:



Also please to be giving Ghost a chance to claim. Or did he have it the last time he was at L-1 and didn't?

[saulres]

It seems like a valid way of running a census taker role to me.

Why?

I come from a computer programming background, so that's how I read the order of events. Zoraster confirmed for me that events resolve at their appropriate time (at least as far as my example goes), and don't happen at the start and then go into a "holding pattern" until they resolve. If they did, then in the example I gave in the linked post, the SK's kill

would

go through. But since it doesn't, that means it's looking at the "current" state of things when it resolves. So why would an investigative role return results from a "non-current" state of things?

I can't see census taker defined any way other than "Investigative". It comes last, so it should be showing the results at that time.

Do you think that if there were, say, a role which flipped alignments, that a cop's results would show the pre-flip result rather than the post-flip result, with Miscellaneous coming before Investigative?

[saulres]

Okay, I've reviewed the case KK put against Ghost and while I'm not convinced based on that, I decided to ISO Ghostlin to see what scumminess I could find.

Near as I can tell, yesterday he didn't really do much. At best it looks like active lurking, but that seems to be endemic to this game, unfortunately.

So then I continue through the ISO but hit a wall when I hit this:

I spent a sizeable amount of time going Llam/Jason are scum yesterday

...

You did? I just read your ISO, and I don't remember that. Let's see.

194: Your two scumreads were Lew and Llama. Llama for "Has contributed zero to town and all he's really done is restate the obvious." (Which is kind of what I was thinking about your ISO, really.)

Then we have:

I would not mind the Llam wagon

Well duh, if he's your second of two scumreads I wouldn't expect you to mind it. I'd think you'd

want

it, actually.

Next is, um, well -- nope, that's it for Llama. Let's see about Jason.

Jason, Amrun, and CES are all very content to let a scummy player with a Vig claim, no matter how limited; do whatever he wants tonight. Noted. It's quite likely one of these players is scum.

Okay, that's good, that's calling him 1 of 3 likely scum.

Six posts later (your very next one):

I'm deciding if Jason's stupid or scum

Ah, so you weren't sure. Okay, let's see where you decided that Jason was indeed scum, and spent time going after him.

Looking...

Looking...

Looking...

Nope, that's it. That's the last you said about him.

Wow, you sure

did

spend a "sizeable amount of time going Llam/Jason are scum yesterday"!

If it weren't a hammer vote without a claim I'd put one on you. Your V/LA's over, get back here and claim or I'll hammer you at dead-- oh crap, I miscalculated. I won't be available at deadline, I'll only be available until about an hour before it.

Screw it.

Vote: Ghostlin

Llama, we're in twilight. That's your cue to post up a storm!

[saulres]

When you restore it, could you make one small modification?

In my last vote of the game, could you change it to

Vote: Kublai Khan

?

Thanks in advance!

[saulres]

Since at the moment my games/posts don't even show me as a cultist, I have no allegiance to you

I believe your sig is sufficient.

or any kind of compassion about your fate.

Damn