Blitz 16: Blitz Greatest Idea Mafia(GAME OVER)

[Persivul]

FA should be sortable tomorrow when we see the night actions.

[Persivul]

Also consider the possibility of a gambit. Say FA is a WW doc. They forego a kill N1 to cement her as a town doc. If Jackal's in on it, the supposed rolecop investigation is a nice touch.

[Persivul]

You don't know how much FA is pinging me today :S

Yeah too bad you used your action to prevent her lynch, huh?

[Persivul]

Has anyone actually made a good push this game. People are forgetting to scumhunt to try and Crack the setup

Votes are too scattered. We need some wagons tomorrow. We can't afford a rushed lynch at the last minute with no wagons to analyze.

That said, if it doesn't happen, as gladiator you have the power to force it.

[Persivul]

FA, Flubber claimed gladiator. Gladiator can choose a target during day, then the lynch can only come from those two targets. It makes no sense for scum to take that role, and if we come to doubt him we can ask him to prove it by using it. That leaves Ranger. We need a wagon. Please join me.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Ranger

[Persivul]

@Prsivul: In THIS setup Gladiator picks at night, not day. "Target a player during the night. If they are alive at daybreak, players may only vote for you or them." (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... Idea_Mafia)

That's different, and it's even more likely to be chosen by town. Re: RC's point, this can't be used to take the heat off a scum partner who unexpectedly got wagoned.

[Persivul]

VOTE: Flubb

this is more like it ...

I feel a bad vibe here

Scum. You previously narrowed it down (incorrectly) to Ranger and Flub based on claims. Now that you know Flub made a claim that's likely to be town, you logically should be voting Ranger.

[Persivul]

AND WHY ARE YOU CALLING ME SCUM

I'm calling you scum because:

- You narrowed down your lynch pool to Flub and Ranger
- A wagon is building on Ranger
- You now refuse to vote Ranger

You should logically be voting Ranger. If you won't, that means putting Ranger in your lynch pool was distancing, which you thought was safe for awhile as you didn't expect a Ranger wagon.

Vote Ranger or admit you're scum.

[Persivul]

This makes it sound like you think FA has eliminated everyone but Ranger and Flubbernugget as possible scum. Is that what you're saying? And where did you get it from?

I got it from 1365, but looking back I see I read it too quickly. FB is also in her pool. Actually, it's so wishy-washy as to be pretty much useless - which is also scummy.

[Persivul]

Why would someone with Coroner as a choice pick scum as an alignment?

We don't yet know that's true.

And why would lynching someone claiming that role be a priority for town?

First, we don't know that role claim is true.
Second, within my scum pool, Ranger is the best player. To me that's worth more than most roles.
Third - who would you prefer?

We've spent the first half of phase wandering aimlessly with no significant wagons, and that benefits scum.

[Persivul]

I'm getting really nervous about flubber. Supposedly suspicious of Ranger all game, but doesn't vote her. A wagon starts on her, but he votes blackstar.

[Persivul]

ONE night. For me to prove it. Since I'm visiting a player already dead, my action cannot be redirected. (At least not by a busdriver. But we haven't had a redirector claim, now, have we?) It could be blocked, but we haven't had a roleblocker claim, nor have we seen evidence of a roleblocker role in play, thus, it is unlikely to exist. Therefore, I can, 100%, get a result tonight. Whether you believe me or not is entirely up to you, of course, but I can GET that result, and only scum have reason to fear that. Because should I live to see tomorrow, I will almost-100% have a clear scum result via targeting Lane.

Seems reasonable at first glance. I (actually we, would like another mind on this - Almost, you love this kind of stuff) need to think it through. My concern is, where will we be if we stall for you for one day, then you lie and we mislynch town, then scum gets a NK.

[Persivul]

I don't see any good reason why mafia/SK would want to be talking to the dead.

Yeah, they probably couldn't even if they wanted to as misdirection.

[Persivul]

We have a day left in phase and I don't have a clue who to lynch. Whoever scum are, you're doing a nice job of sowing confusion and avoiding wagons.

[Persivul]

Honestly, the composition of the Flubbernugget wagon is not very great; Flubber has a significant chance of being a mislynch, but I don't have any better ideas.

I get close to putting intent on Flubber, then you say something really icky like this.

You were big on Jackal earlier in phase, how about that?

[Persivul]

If I was mafia I'd want to get rid of Ranger (assuming she's not) bc her results could bring me down.

I was purposely not mentioning this because, if she's alive tomorrow, she can claim it's due to wifom. She could have anyway, but it's easier now since it's already been pointed out to scum.

[Persivul]

Still no comment from flubber on 1418.

Intent to hammer.

[Persivul]

Jackal went from the second biggest wagon yesterday to no votes now...just because he claimed to have rolecopped FA?

Does that make any sense?

[Persivul]

My problem with Flubber is I'm not sure of his alignment.

I'm not sure of anyone's alignment at this point. Not helping things is that FA and RC are (purposely?) over-emotional and difficult to read, and FB rarely explains himself and so is difficult to read. I typically avoid games with RC but this setup is fun. FA's now on my avoid list too, but as she joins like 3/4 of the games that might not be possible.

I don't like that Ranger's sitting back and not making serious pushes.

I liked flubber until I noticed his continual scum read of Ranger with no vote there. That's a strong scum tell. With a wagon building on her he still didn't vote her. He didn't respond to my concern. The more I type the scummier he seems.

Reading Ranger's ISO wrt flubber, she has him in her second tier in the beginning of the game. Their interactions frequently feel fake to me. 798 pinged me as feeling forced. Several of their interactions felt like Flubber setting up Ranger with easy questions so she could make points. BUT...in 1086 she ups dave and jackal and drops flubber in her reads list, then later votes him. From her side it could be town v scum or mafia v WW. BUT...from his side it really reads as same faction.

[Persivul]

why should scum use the fact that I'm a doctor and connect the dots to ww no kill to realize that I'm town ?

And this has been bothering me all game. FA is way too concerned with her own survival.

[Persivul]

Honestly, the composition of the Flubbernugget wagon is not very great; Flubber has a significant chance of being a mislynch, but I don't have any better ideas.

So in other words you need a wagon to save yourself

And yet you don't vote her.

[Persivul]

Can I suggest jackle as the vig shot?

Why? You've been one of his advocates. Just trying to save yourself?

[Persivul]

Persivul what would you say if I gladiate Ranger?

As in you're scumclaiming if we don't have a Flub/Ranger gladiator match tomorrow?

[Persivul]

The Heck.

VOTE: Jackal

This feels much better IMHO. Also I get the sense FA, Flubber & Persy are mildly willing to agree. Need two more.

Not willing to agree

Well who the fuck WILL you lynch today?

[Persivul]

Persivul what would you say if I gladiate Ranger?

As in you're scumclaiming if we don't have a Flub/Ranger gladiator match tomorrow?

I'll do it right now

OK do it.

[Persivul]

Pedit: Flubber loses that match, I won't lynch the coroner.

She's 1-shot and is using it tonight on lane.

[Persivul]

GLADIATE: RANGER

You didn't read your role PM? You target at night. It's not a standard gladiator role.

[Persivul]

VOTE: Flubber

If that wasn't a hammer:

VOTE: Flubber

He would have known from his role PM that he targets at night. Heck, we've even pointed that out in thread. He's apparently not paying attnetion.

[Persivul]

Wow. That's unnecessarily harsh.

Says the person banned for abusive behavior.

[Persivul]

mod, can you update the dead list on page 1? Thanks.

[Persivul]

These kills narrow down the setup possibilities. I believe we started with:

7 town
2 Survivors (both dead)
2 WW (both dead)
2 mafia (both alive)

I tracked Ranger and she targeted Lane. If lane was killed by mafia rather than a vig shot from FB, that will be one of them.

[Persivul]

mod - thanks, can we also have a VC to see the living players?

With 6 players left we have at least 4 town.

[Persivul]

I'm starting at:

Town - Ranger, Almost50, Blackstar
Scum - RC, davesaz

[Persivul]

RC is a total mystery.

The needless use of the governor ability was an attempt to appear town.

[Persivul]

Smithers said she shot at me N1. Almost did you say you swapped me and droog N1? If so, I believe that means lane was shot by someone who's still alive, so if Ranger is town we should know one of the remaining scum from her coroner report.

[Persivul]

My result did NOT include a name. It just said the result was not mafia.

Who did you target?

Yeah, give up your info first scumbag...

[Persivul]

Should've let him answer without pointing that out.

[Persivul]

How hard is it to say "I requested X to be investigated "????

[Persivul]

My target was BlackStar.
SLOW THE FUCK DOWN PEOPLE.

You said I showed up as not Mafia? Well now I'm like 95% sure that you're lying about your role because my modifier makes me show up as "not werewolf". Why would it say not Mafia when you "investigated"?

That probably only affects seer investigations, not cop.

[Persivul]

RC and one of blackstar/davesaz. Hopefully RC didn't do the lane kill herself.

[Persivul]

If you just said that I'm not Mafia,

He didn't say that, as there are bus driver actions to resolve.

[Persivul]

OK, then the odds aren't too bad that there's only one scum left and it's Mafia and we don't need to worry about Persivul being an idiot.

Nice try, but there can't be just one mafia.

[Persivul]

That's a slip, IMO (BS's reaction).

Blackstar's new and that's a reasonable mistake. he could still be scum, bit not for that IMO.

But need Ranger's action.

Yeah, this part is largely just fun until we hear from her.

[Persivul]

Care to explain why there can't just be one mafia?

Actually looking at the wiki it doesn't prohibit a single mafia, so I guess it's possible. Typically a mafia faction needs at least 2 members.

[Persivul]

And Persy, if you keep trying to force a 1v1 against me you will lose and get lynched and if you're town everyone in the game will blame you for this loss.

I'm pretty effing obviously town here. I would absolutely have saved my unclaimed governor shot for when pressure was on me or my partner if I was scum.

Keep that in mind.

Fearmongering is scuuummmmmmyyyyyyy.

[Persivul]

cuz if you're going to tunnel me we're doing this we're doing this today while there's still a chance of a cross kill.

VOTE: Persivul

You might as well scum claim. The rest of us are waiting for Ranger's report to vote. I didn't target lane, so I'm not worried. You OTOH...

[Persivul]

I did not target anyone at night because I don't have any night actions.

Then why are your panties all in a bunch? Fearful for your partner? Unless you're lying about that or scum reading Ranger, you have nothing to worry about with respect to today's lynch.

[Persivul]

deathtunnel

Holy hyperbole Batman!

[Persivul]

A little RC-BS distancing maybe?

[Persivul]

A little RC-BS distancing maybe?

I wanted to consider it, but then if it was the case then their best move would've been to bus Ranger (but w/o claiming it). Now picture this: You track that spot and see she doesn't visit lane, so you push on her. She gets lynched and flips town. YOU are the automatic next day lynch. Meanwhile someone gets shot at night. This would've probably won them the game already, and while BS is obviously new (which I must stress does NOT indicate he is any less smart) I know RC is not. He most probably would've gone down that road (if I can think of it, then he must have).

Huh? RC is radiant, not ranger.

[Persivul]

@Persy: Yes. If RC & BS are mafia together, they would've bussed Ranger so you would see the spot as not visiting lane and push on Ranger, and when she flips town (bc obviously we can't have more than 2 scum still alive) we would be down to 5, so if they pick the right night kill they've won. If they don't then you will be lynched next day and -again- night action will decide the winner.

Got it. Bussed means killing your partner. Per the wiki a bus driver doesn't bus, he drives, hence my confusion.

[Persivul]

So that means RC and davesaz...

[Persivul]

OK, just RC.

[Persivul]

Can we agree that if you're town when this game's over I get to slap you?

Why? Was I supposed to read you as town for voting lane, who was obvtown?

[Persivul]

Or was it for Wednesday being your biggest town read?

[Persivul]

I just reviewed the VCs and I think the only time you were on scum was in D1 when you voted yourself.

[Persivul]

You got that right. Survivors can and do cut deals in late game. And, in a potentially multiball setup like this, scum can scumhunt as well, so it's not like there's a huge difference between scum and independent play.

[Persivul]

1 WW + 1 or 2 Mafia left:

It can't be 1 WW + 2 mafia left. Out of 6 remaining there are at least 4 town per the initial requirements. At most 2 scum remain.

[Persivul]

@almost50
Ugh... Alright, I guess. I'm the town bus driver.

I targeted Persivul and radiantcowbells on N1.

But RC didn't die and Starbuck/droog did instead. I PMed my night action to the mod really early and didn't look at it again until now so I kind of forgot that I targeted RC and not Starbuck. I guess I also didn't care because a werewolf died. Since RC is still alive that must mean that there's a second bus driver.

Bump so I don't have to search for it again.

[Persivul]

At this time I do believe a massclaim should help:

I'm a Town BusDriver with DOUBLE-DOWN Modifier.

My 1st switch was Persy for Starbuck (which is why I believe Smithereens claim, obviously). My second switch was myself for BlackStar.

Spoiler: Reasons

Reason for 1st switch: I wasn't sure of Persy's alignment (still am not) but thought I'd protect him IF he was town. It didn't seem logical to protect him over someone more likely to be town, and as I had no problem of losing Starbuck anyway it seemed like the best move. A nightkill targeted at Persy would serve to rid us of a totally unknown, but -more importantly- would prove he is not <insert alignment here> depending on the method of the NK. Unfortunately; Town Vig never occurred to me.

Reason for 2nd switch: I didn't want to get NK'd myself. I picked someone who was being more quiet than not, so they probably would not have been targeted by any killer anyway, so I was safe. I also thought BS was less likely to be scum than -say- Starbuck or Jackal so I picked him over them both (in case I was investigated myself. I would not want to escape a NK only to find myself lynched based on evidence I personally faked on me). It was close between him and dave, but I saw BS to be a little bit more townier than dave.

Bump

[Persivul]

BTW, my tracking ability tells me that Ranger

targeted

lane, not that she

visited

lane. It's possible she's lying about her role and results. I doubt that she's lying - it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

[Persivul]

I believe we may be overthinking this.

As I read the wiki, a bus driver swaps actions made ON two players. It doesn't swap the actions made BY the two players.

Blackstar doesn't even claim to have targeted lane with his bus drive. So, it doesn't matter if he was driven himself. If he didn't target lane himself in some way, a bus drive wouldn't make him show up in the coroner's report.

Need to think some more on this before voting, but I currently think:

- we lynch Blackstar today
- I track RC and davesaz cops RC tonight. He can't kill both of us.

[Persivul]

Also, what are you trying to tell me with your quotes of BS & my N1 action posts?

Nothing, just bumping them so I can find them easier.

[Persivul]

it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

Actually; that would've been a slip.

We know for a fact Smither/Fireball had the gravedigger modifier on them.

She could've fell back on "that goes without saying" though.

Oh fuck I forgot about that. That helps a lot! That means it's either Blackstar is scum who killed lane, or Ranger is scum who's framing Blackstar, and as I last thought the bus driving doesn't really matter.

[Persivul]

Ranger, if there's a 2-person mafia team left, who do you think it is?

[Persivul]

@ Almost: take a break dude. And remember - hindsight is 20/20, and scum make plenty of tactical mistakes. Maybe you should forget about night actions for awhile and focus on people's posting and interactions - regular old scum hunting. We have plenty of time.

[Persivul]

@RC: ignoring night actions and just considering posts & votes, what's your read on Blackstar?

[Persivul]

Can we just not vote for now? There's plenty of time. I'm checking ISOs and some meta and will put up full thoughts and plans tonight or tomorrow morning. Let's just be cool for now.

[Persivul]

@RC: ignoring night actions and just considering posts & votes, what's your read on Blackstar?

[Persivul]

Regarding the setup, we could be in 4:2, 4:1:1, or 5:1. 4:2 is the worst case scenario so I’m working with that.

My current reads:

Town {Almost50, BlackStar}
Lean town {davesaz}
Scum {Ranger, RC}

Since we know that one of Ranger or BlackStar is lying, we

lynch Ranger

first.

If RC governs:

- Almost swaps Ranger with one of {Almost, BlackStar, Persivul, davesaz} and swaps RC with another one from that group. Choose randomly.
- Blackstar does nothing (I don’t get the bus driver interplay and don’t want the two canceleing each other out)

If RC doesn’t govern and Ranger flips scum:

- Almost swaps RC with one of {Almost, BlackStar, Persivul} and swaps davesaz with another one from that group. Choose randomly.
- Blackstar does nothing
- Davesaz cops RC

If RC doesn’t govern and Ranger flips town:

- Almost swaps Blackstar with one of {Almost, davesaz, Persivul} and swaps RC with another one from that group. Choose randomly.
- Blackstar does scummy things
- Davesaz cops RC

This of course assumes that we have support for a Ranger lynch, which I think we do.

Let me know if I’m missing something. When you guys have reviewed, if there are no issues I intend to vote Ranger.

[Persivul]

Black is literally so fucking obviously scum that it blows my mind.

You mean like FA was when you called for her vig shot?

[Persivul]

No we ARE NOT FUCKING LYNCHING RANGER.

What is the MATTER WITH YOU GUYS WHICH OF YOU IS SCUM WITH BLACK.

Interestingly, Ranger isn't even voting Blackstar.

[Persivul]

I think you're scum because it doesn't make any sense that everyone is taking your side here.

That's stupid.

[Persivul]

You keep giving supposed explanations for your Blackstar scumread that in no way explain your BlackStar scumread.

[Persivul]

Meh, I've had enough.

VOTE: Ranger

[Persivul]

I believe that's L-1. Now we just need to see if davesaz is on board.

[Persivul]

Oh, and I have one more argument.

Werewolf is far more 'interesting' than mafia because it's underplayed. That's why you see more of them than mafia.

I can't at all fathom that Blackstar would choose Mafia over Werewolf.

Doesn't that work in his favor? Last night we had two gunshot victims and one dismemberment. We know FB was a vig. That leaves one gunshot unaccounted for, which means there's probably mafia in the game.

[Persivul]

Oh, and I have one more argument.

Werewolf is far more 'interesting' than mafia because it's underplayed. That's why you see more of them than mafia.

I can't at all fathom that Blackstar would choose Mafia over Werewolf.

I mixed up the names.

I don't believe that RANGER would have chosen Mafia over Werewolf. Werewolves are less common ergo cooler.

Besides, where's your case on Ranger scum?

So you can't fathom Ranger taking a less interesting role, even though she said herself in 164, "As a result, to be town, I got stuck with something weak."

Actually, I agree with you. I can't see Ranger taking a weaker role just so she could be town.

[Persivul]

Just saw that davesaz is 54. With me at 51 and almost 50 at almost 50, this is an older skewing game.

[Persivul]

Well snap, that was unexpected.

[Persivul]

You might want to refrain from calling people idiots when you'd like them to come around to your point of view.

[Persivul]

every towny alive is claiming to scumread me besides Ranger.

The logical conclusion from that is that you've been playing in a scummy manner.

Your conclusion is that we're all idiots.

[Persivul]

@Radiant: why didn't you govern Ranger?

[Persivul]

mod can we have a VC?

[Persivul]

I did when he got coroner guiltied but I was tired of arguing with Persivul who is basically a brick wall and Almost who was too busy complaining about how I play.

You're not at all persuasive. Instead of getting pissed about it in every game, why not change and learn to be persuasive?

[Persivul]

Personally, when I'm town and people are scum reading me, I figure the problem is with me and not them.

[Persivul]

From the dead thread:

And speaking of RC: dude, you might be better at reading than me - IDK, don't have the data, but if you are - there's more to the game than reading. You also need to be able to convince people that you're right, and you need some work in that department. Almost is more diplomatic than me and apologized, but IMO his remark was spot on. Your play style helps you as scum, but is a hindrance as town. You yell at people and call them idiots when they disagree with you. Maybe you can bully some of the teenagers that way, but it's not working on me. Not only doesn't it sway me toward your position, it actually moves me against your position. You always read scummy to me. I've learned that that's your playstyle, and so not to push you D1 or D2 every game (that's where it helps you as scum). But, there's no way I'm ever gonna sheep your reads. Welp that's RC doesn't cut it. I understand that you might want to keep your reasoning to yourself. We play with the same people over and over, and if you alert them to their tells, they'll adapt. BUT...if you want people to believe you without providing reasoning, you need a much different interpersonal approach.

AND...if you hadn't wasted your govern on FA (only to scum read her later in phase), you could have stopped the Ranger lynch anyway, and BS presumably would have been lynched.

AND...you hammered yourself. Davesaz wasn't convinced. So quit blaming everyone but yourself.

AND I'll add...what's worse...scum reading someone who's town, or hammering someone who you town read?

[Persivul]

And one more thing...town won! Amazing that instead of enjoying that you have to criticize people for not playing perfectly.

[Persivul]

Instead, I see it as people are what they are and it's my responsibility to read them.

You scum read FA and she was town.
You scum read me and I was town.
You have a lot of work to do.

[Persivul]

I'd also like to comment on Survivors again.

What's the difference in motivations between a Survivor and a single-member mafia like Blackstar?

Not much:
- both need to survive to the end to win
- neither has a partner, so no associative tells
- scum has a NK and so is motivated to determine roles, but roles came out pretty early so that wasn't a factor

A Survivor lynch is a good lynch. Town lynched correctly 3 times out of 4. There was only 1 mislynch.

Really this should be a town celebration, rather than finger pointing because it wasn't a perfect win.

[Persivul]

It's easier for them to win with scum. Once as town I convinced a Survivor to vote with us, it backfired on him, and he lost. But, he would have won with scum.

[Persivul]

Still bitter about that lynch, but oh well.

Would you consider this your standard town game? It didn't seem that way to me. I compared it to the last Blitz we were in and you were more confident with your reads and aggressive in that one.