Open 57 - Quack Mafia (Game Over) before 545

[shaft.ed]

Vote: Dasquain

for not playing in Quack Mafia.

[shaft.ed]

Second thought - I was in the first Quack Mafia, and my thought then is still my thought now - the setup *should* be breakable. But how? I'm trying to think about that.

Yes breaking the set up would be great. Only problem I can forsee is that knowing who the Quacks are means three dead townies. Don't know if that's worth the trade off.

MoS mentioned he had a breaking strategy in the sign up Queue, guess we can wait to hear from him.

Also do Doc protects and Kill requests add up in a numerical fashion, so say Mafia and Quack target the same guy as a Single Doc will he die, but if a second Doc were to also target that person would they then be saved?

[shaft.ed]

OK so we're going upwards then. Oh Man! that means I have to protect Oman, hope I'm a quack

[shaft.ed]

You admiting you know I'm pro-town?

You have reason to believe you aren't pro-town?

[shaft.ed]

I'm pretty sure MoS' breaking strat can be broken, but I'd rather not reveal cause then the mafia will know it.

And please don't as it seems we're already locked in for this day at least.

[shaft.ed]

Not sure how to proceed from here. I didn't like the circle protect idea, but didn't log in in time to prevent the no lynch, and didn't want to point out the flaws to the mafia in twilight. On to some numbers:

If One Quack/Mafia is scum then two Doc/Mafia are town therefore odds of lynching scum are:
Quack:1/3 = 33% chance proper lynch
Doc: 2/6 = 33% chance proper lynch
So here odds are even BUT:

If no Quack/Mafia are scum then three Doc/Mafia are town therefore odds of lynching scum are:
Quack: 0/3 = 0% chance proper lynch
Doc: 3/6 = 50% chance proper lynch

So all added up we get (this is weighting odds of mafia no kill equally with odds of mafia kill, that of course is open to debate):
Quack: 16.7%
Doc: 41.7%

Seems lynching someone from the non-killing pool would be in our best interest today based solely on the numbers.

Since we had almost no discussion D1 there's pretty much nothing to go on. But in order to move towards a player oriented discussion I'm going to

FoS Tarhalindur

for the in depth analysis showing how poor a strategy the circle protect was and still voting for it*

FoS Oman

for voting No Lynch, then later stating the breaking strategy can be broken*

FoS Lulubelle

for voting no lynch because we "might as well move things along," even after she was the first to point out a fatal flaw in the strategy

vote MoS

I've seen mafia before put forth fatal plans. Have them fairly universally accepted, and then come in the next day and blame everyone else for following their idea. I'd say that's a possibility here.

*note these players are from the Quack pool, yes I understand I'm not following my own advice.

[shaft.ed]

Sorry the Holidays took up way more time than I had expected.

Been trying to think of a way to salvage the situation, and I can't really come up with one. It seems if there were a way to confirm the two/three Quacks that were outed that'd be quite helpful to the town, but I can't come up with a mechanism to do that other than more needless killing, or choreographed Doc protects that let scum know exactly who is exposed for killing.

I guess the upside of this is that most, if not all of, the Quack's know who they are for certain and we shouldn't be getting any more unexpected deaths. Also if they wanted to be ballsy they could use their power as a limited cop investigation, but this is probably a bad idea as it will result in a town death if wrong and could end up being confusing based on Doc protects and such.

@ Oman, how likely do you think the No-Kill was? I think it's pretty obvious that the town would have to abandon the circle protect strategy. And I find it interesting that assuming a No-Kill exonerates your night actions.

@ Lulubelle, I don't really buy the argument that because Vollkan and Tarlahinder were on board with the circle protect strategy means that it was OK to just hop on the bus and "move things along." In fact I was ready to charge after Vollkan heading into today because it is very uncharacteristic of him to go forward with a strategy without a) posting at least three page long posts about the pros & cons and b) posting at least five mathematical interpretations of the possible outcomes.

[shaft.ed]

How can you possibly accuse me of sitting back to let my plan get accepted? You guys proved that my plan was dead and then rushed it to night before I even had the chance to check the thread. I couldn't have possibly posted after proposing my plan, because it was night already.

I'm not accusing you of sitting back and letting it get accepted. I'm accusing you of putting forth such an obviously broken plan from the start. Here's the Heading of our Open Game in the Queue:

bolding mine

Quack Mafia (Open 57) - 3 Mafia, 6 Doctors, 3 Quacks (

will kill non-Mafia

, but think they're Docs), DayStart (12/12) - Mod: Crub

It's pretty obvious that Quacks don't kill mafia. So I do think you could have put this forth in hopes that it would go through, and then you would be giddy to see it "quicklynched" into effect the next time you log on. However, I also see blame laying with some of the sheep that followed such a plan.

Therefore, since these people voted for it:Mastermind of Sin,

Disciple Slayer,

Tarhalindur, Oman,

vollkan

, Lulubelle,

thedragonsprincess

And three of the seven voters ended up dead (bolded), I would say it's at the very least likely that one or two scum remain from the other voters:
Mastermind of Sin, Tarhalindur, Oman, and Lulubelle

Note that according to simple math Tarhalindur and Oman are less likely to be scum so I think a decent choice today is between MoS and Lulubelle. Since MoS originated the plan I think it's more likely he is scum. Obviously we have very little posting history to work with, so some discussion would be nice, as I would rather base a lynch off of actual game interactions.

[shaft.ed]

Tyler that fifty-fifty statement doesn't sit well with me. I don't like people making false numbers.

Also there obviously were "ignorant" townies on the wagon as three of them turned up dead. I'm simply stating we might take advantage of the fact that an obviously pro-mafia quick-no-lynch went through, and only four people survived it. To me this means we may be able to lynch from this pool of players and have a greater likelihood of catching scum. I'd at least like to discuss the idea.

Also greatly looking for to mass-prods Crub.

[shaft.ed]

That said, I have to agree about MoS's actions. He put forth that idea in the first place, merrily sat back as the town tripped over itself to agree with him, and then blamed everyone else when it turned out sour.

Vote: Mastermind of Sin

So then you do think that MoS sat back and deliberately waited for people to adopt his plan. Your vote suggest you must believe that's the way it played out.

[shaft.ed]

Tyler, the Fifty-fifty was just me not liking people putting numbers on things that aren't at all quantifiable. It makes it sound like he's just as likely to do one thing than another, which effectively erases the argument. And that statement coming from another player looks like a partner protecting a scumbuddy

There's no risk in him proposing a poor strategy. He can easily take it back saying "whoopsie didn't notice that" without much of a problem in the future, but if it works the payoff is big (as we see here town's down three with only a page of useful information generated).

As far as who he would lynch, that's a question you should address to him.

[shaft.ed]

The no kill strategy only works if the circle-protect strategy is played out to its full conclusion. No kill is actually detrimental if the town aborts on the circle protect strategy N2. But no kill or not the game could realistically be over if the circle protect strategy were taken to it's logical conclusion on N2, depending on where scum are positioned in relation to quacks. So if the mafia thought it through they would likely realize that the circle protect strategy would have been aborted and put in a NK. However, this doesn't neccessarily have to be the case.

[shaft.ed]

I'm not accusing you of sitting back and letting it get accepted. I'm accusing you of putting forth such an obviously broken plan from the start. Here's the Heading of our Open Game in the Queue:

bolding mine

Quack Mafia (Open 57) - 3 Mafia, 6 Doctors, 3 Quacks (

will kill non-Mafia

, but think they're Docs), DayStart (12/12) - Mod: Crub

It's pretty obvious that Quacks don't kill mafia. So I do think you could have put this forth in hopes that it would go through, and then you would be giddy to see it "quicklynched" into effect the next time you log on. However, I also see blame laying with some of the sheep that followed such a plan.

I have to say that I really, really dislike this reasoning. It was a very easy mistake to make, and one that I made myself at first while looking for breaking strategies pregame.

It was actually pointed out by a number of people that Quacks don't kill townies. In fact you posted this information directly after MoS's submission of the plan:

Plus, with 3 of the 4 kills being randomly assigned, we've got a 3/11+3/10+3/9 chance of hitting at least 1 mafia during night 1, which is a 90% chance of eliminating scum on the first night. That's pretty good odds.

Am I missing something here?

3xQuack Doctors - Will kill any

town aligned player

they protect each night.

Next we have Oman confirming this two posts after yours with the Mod posting the info in the Thread:

Crubmod:

Will Quacks only kill Town players?

Correct - Crub

Then the next post by Tarlahindur:

This sounds right to me, but the correct strategy post-N1 needs to be altered in order to account for the fact that Quacks can't hit mafia.

So no I don't think it was an easy mistake to make. And what really amazes me is how many people hopped on board even after it was pointed out. Re-reading this section it's really difficult to see who isn't looking scummy.

[shaft.ed]

I realize that. I just think it's plausible that MoS didn't see the easily-missed "will kill non-mafia" in the role description when he formulated the circle-protect strategy and that it's plausible that he didn't poke his head in on the thread again before it when to night. As I said before, I missed that at first myself.

I'm not saying it isn't plausible that he missed it. I'm saying it's rather convenient that something advertised as a breaking strategy for town actually works out as an assured mafia win when one detail is overlooked. I think you may lend a lot of credence to over-looking this detail because you missed it yourself. MoS had been advertising his knowledge of a breaking strategy during sign-ups. He had a lot of time to double check his work.

So then, what do you make of the fact that 4-5 of the 7 people that were on the no lynch bandwagon are confirmed townies?

That's what's really bothering me. It seems like such an obvious thing to me. But when a guy like vollkan supports it and is now a confirmed townie it really makes me wonder if it wasn't easy to miss the flaw. It should be pointed out however that one of the confirmed innocents (Disciple Slayer) voted prior to the discussion of the Quacks not killing mafia. I guess the part of me that thinks scum would love to push this into action would say that it's a good thing we have so many confirmed innocents so that increases our chances of hitting scum from the voters. But the paranoid part of me says that the lynch went through in about 10 hours, the scum could have sat back and watched it go through not wanting to get their hands dirty.

[shaft.ed]

I guess I'm just predisposed to seeing it as a broken strategy. No one tried to block it, or resisted piling on unless they were actively avoiding the thread.

Do you think that there's simply nothing to garner from the "bandwagon" then?

[shaft.ed]

Wait, aside for the dead docs there are no confirmed townies, okay?

Only scum that didn't kill the person they were meant to protect, and the rest of us.

I agree that the wording was poor, but what Lulu was pointing out is that at most 1 of the 3 "Quacks" can be mafia. Since two of them voted for the No Lynch, at least 4 of the 7 voters must be town aligned.

Also seeing as how fictiondepartment disappeared over the night phase. Should we be worried he didn't partake in the circle protect? I guess if he does turn up Quack later that would indicate that one of our three presumed Quack/mafia would have to be mafia?

[shaft.ed]

Yeah that would be weird. So it seems to me that the best bet would be voting from the quack pool. But when it comes to scumhunting, it would have to be either lullubelle or MoS. That says aboslutely nothing new and gives us little to none zeroing down...

Tyler, check out my maths post earlier. I think that it is actually better to lynch from the non "Quack" pool since taking into account the possibility of a mafia NK, it is more likely that we will hit scum from the "Doc" pool.

Kuribo, when I say Quack/Mafia or Doc/Mafia that just means they are likely one of the two roles mentioned. We know the people that killed must be either Quacks or mafia and we know that the people that didn't kill are more likely Docs or mafia though there is a chance one of the non-killers is a Quack of one of the killers comes up mafia.

And man, now I know why Day 1's, while painful, are so helpful. There's so little to go on today.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: NK about should be no kill

[shaft.ed]

Phate under other circumstances I don't think I'd mind as much, but if we mislynch today mafia get a NK and a Quack kill also occurs it's game over. Not to mention that if a Doc protects the same person as the Quack but is NK'd then the information is false. I think it just creates manipulatable information at the risk of killing of townies when we're already in a dangerous situation.

[shaft.ed]

OK I've been thinking about my assumption that it's less likely there are Mafia in the Quack pool and I think I may have been a bit off. The reason being is that it not very likely that if all three Quacks target the person above, they will all score a kill thus avoiding mafia (as would have to be the case here). Odds of all three Quacks not being directly below any of the mafia should be about 30% (someone check this just in case). So it's more likely that one of the kills came from scum.

Also, the incentive for scum to kill is pretty high. If they did turn out lucky and get three Quack kills, adding one of their own would open us at 5:3 basically LyLo at the start of D2 following a 2 page D1. I don't think their chances to win could get much better. But opening up at 6:3 is entirely different. Thus I don't see the scum passing up the NK even though it was a breaking strategy for the circle protect. This is because the circle protect itself was a broken strategy, they didn't need to break a broken breaking strategy.

So after all of this I simply conclude that I was wrong before, I think it's just as likely there could be scum in the Quack pool, if not more so.

Also I didn't state this above, but I didn't think Phate's post was considerably scummy and I think the votes could be seen as opprotunistic.

[shaft.ed]

MoS that's a horribly idea.

If all of our Quacks are Quacks and they circle protect the game is over at 3:3 going into tommorow (this is ignoring a lynch today).

Even if one of the Quacks is scum and your plan "works" the Doc circle protect is entirely broken because the mafia can easily kill one of the Docs. This means BCS for your plan = 3 NK's if this follows a No Lynch it's game over, if it follows a mislynch it's game over, and if it follows a scum lynch it will be 3:2 LyLo where we know one scum for sure based on surviving Quacks, so in effect it will equal 3:1 going into N3 and thus I think a town win. Doesn't look like good odds to me.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah discussion would be helpful. Have to say I'm not liking MoS's "plans" thus far. The second one was just blatantly not going to work. Not sure if scum would realistically try to get that to pass, but maybe he's just trying to demonstrate how bad his plans are in general.

I guess I'm still happy with my vote. But I must say I find it curious gets two quick votes for his question and MoS gets one a totally separate player for his much more damaging suggestion.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: my second paragraph failed to state that Phate got two quick votes for his question

[shaft.ed]

Maybe we differ in opinion, I feel that Phate's idea of randomly using Quacks as townie murdering cops is far more damaging.

This is simply false. Under almost any circumstance MoS's strategy equates to instant town loss. Phate's suggestion is risky but doesn't neccessarily mean a town loss and could out a scum. I still don't think he should do it, but it's at least a slightly viable play.

Anyway, I should point out that I don't know if I'm a Doc or a Quack. The guy I replaced wasn't around, so he didn't perform any night action.

It's hard, too, because if I'm not the remaining quack, then that means that a Quack protected Mafia last night and thinks they're a doc.

Really wish you had come out with this earlier in the day when we were discussing it. Why bring it up now btw?

[shaft.ed]

OK everyone a little posting action would be appreciated.

Also I think it'd be best if Kuribo doesn't target anyone tonight as there's a decent chance he's a Quack and one of the other three "Quack's" is thus mafia. Since the extra NK could end the game it seems like the safe thing to do. Any thoughts on this?

[shaft.ed]

We still run the danger that the last Quack targetted Mafia last night and thus thinks they're a doc.

Yeah I'm not sure what to do about that one. We could play the night as vanilla, but that'd make it very easy for the mafia. Getting a Doc protect on the upcoming NK could be very helpful.

Maybe we could go with this: If we mislynch play as vanilla, if we lynch scum people that think they are Docs put in a protection.

This would mean:
If we mislynch we open the day tommorow at 4:3 LyLo, a Doc protect would get us 5:3 still LyLo or a Quack hit would get us end gamed at 3:3.

But if we lynch mafia we open the day tommorow at 5:2 with a NK, a Doc protect would put us at 6:2 an effective extra lynch, but a quack hit and a NK would be 4:2 LyLo. The small risk seems worth the possible reward here.

[shaft.ed]

Tyler could you please be a little more vague in your posts. There are multiple plans being talked about right now.

And this is the second straight time you have posted just to say you're not sure who to vote for. That's lurking in plain sight in my eyes.

[shaft.ed]

I agree with Oman. The problem with not protecting the Quacks LuLu is that the mafia then know who is unprotected and thus can certaintly garner a NK. If there is protection tonight it has to be totally unchoreographed and the people who know they are Quacks obviously shouldn't target.

[shaft.ed]

Tarhalindur, I've got to disagree with you, my reaction was not scummy. I first reacted to Phate's suggestion becuase it is critical that we not have an extra NK this evening as combined with a mis-lynch that will endgame us. I then posted a correction to my earlier points. I had been thinking about this while off thread for quite some time and wanted to get it up in thread. Finally I pointed out that your and Kuribo's votes were suspicious,

Also I didn't state this above, but I didn't think Phate's post was considerably scummy and I think the votes could be seen as opprotunistic.

this is very far from attacking you as you state your vote was made to bait attacks.

2) I was checking to see if anyone stepped out of their way to either further my seemingly poorly-reasoned attack

Finally, it's strange to me that your "trap" also nabbed an opprotunistic voter in Kuribo, yet you failed to even mention this possibility.

FoS Tarlahindur

[shaft.ed]

2) I was checking to see if anyone stepped out of their way to either further my seemingly poorly-reasoned attack (scum attacking an apparently vulnerable townie) or defend you (scumbuddy defense).

So if someone furthered your attack, they're scum, and if someone defended me, they're scum? It looks like the only way here to not be branded scum is to ignore the issue altogether - of course, then one would be called out for lurking.

And as noted Kuribo furthered the attack without any mention from Tar. Possible association noted.

[shaft.ed]

So...that game of mafia we were playing? Anyone?

Just to recap my thoughts. My number 1 suspect is MoS for his two failed strategies and his "OMG Why did you listen to me, FoS everyone" to start the day.

Not liking Tarlahindur's gambit just now, as Phate points out it basically would "catch scum" regardless of the response.

And Tyler, I guess I can belive your busy-ness, but has it been going on for the whole game? You've been heavily lurking, and only have to contributing posts in this game.

Crub any luck with the replacement?

[shaft.ed]

This game is going nowhere because people have dragged it into endless mafia theory.

Can we just hunt scum?

Um there really hasn't been that much mafia theory as of late. It's going nowhere because noone's posting. And I'm not liking the request to hunt scum while not hunting scum yourself.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah some posting would be good folks.

Tarhalindur, what say you Re:Phate's argument?

[shaft.ed]

Wow, Tar lots of problems with your last post.

First you start by attacking the weak point of Phate's argument that someone not responding to you could be called out for lurking. That was obviously incorrect. However, you barely even address that fact that you could call someone scum for agreeing with you or for disagreeing with you. You just say "in your experience" that is the way it is. Conveniently if you get both the one that's the attacker is more likely scum, but what happens if you only get people agreeing with you, you said they are scummy so how does that work?

This leads me to the next point. You have one "tell" which I would argue is incredibly weak, and you are expanding this to the point were it must always catch scum. I've never seen a scum trap that works so well, yet you're ready to lynch based on a single "tell."

we should lynch either Phate or shaft.ed today

I would like to point out to you that the last few pages consists of very little dialog from about half of the players in the game. We also have a replacement that hasn't even posted the entire day, yet you're already willing to move to a lynch. That is quite hasty and meshes well with your glaring glossing over of MoS's breaking strategy yesterday that basically put the seal of approval on the whole thing while completely debunking it.

You also are basing your entire tell on the fact that I was attacking you. Yet when you first voted for me you said:

attacks kuribo and myself

almost as an afterthoughts

.

So how does a weak attack fit into your experience. I would hardly call my earlier post an attack.

I didn't think Phate's post was considerably scummy and I think the votes could be seen as opprotunistic.

That's merely an observation. Yet you're basing your entire scum read of two players off of it.

You haven't given any other substantiating evidence that I am scum. You also keep stating:

I already found Phate to be the most likely scum candidate among the claimed quacks (since I have a town read on Oman and I know that I am town);

So the only reason you think Phate is scum is because Oman is giving you a town read? You haven't made a single point to substantiate your case on Phate either.

In my experience, I've found that when someone is having trouble fitting scum into their scenario it's because they are in fact themselves scum.

unvote vote Tarlahindur

[shaft.ed]

Okay, most of the game has been game theory. I couldn't get anything new and started to loose comprehension two pages ago. I should also state that I wont do a night action tonight either for the same reason kuribo isn't.

Wait are you saying that you suspect one if the "Quacks" is scum and thus you

may

be a Quack, or that you didn't get a night action in and just now decided to tell us about it?

This game is getting painful.

Oman I don't think you ever answered Lulu's question about which MoS plan.

And farside, welcome to the game. I do think Lulu has be agreeing with me a bit more than an average player, but I guess I can't fault her for that Seriously I have noticed it, but wanted to see how far it could go.

[shaft.ed]

Wait are you saying that you suspect one if the "Quacks" is scum and thus you

may

be a Quack, or that you didn't get a night action in and just now decided to tell us about it?

Actually, he told us about that a while ago.

Man I need to pay more attention. I totally forgot about/missed that point.

kurib, care to comment on Tarlahindur?

[shaft.ed]

So yeah that game of mafia we were playing?

[shaft.ed]

kurib, care to comment on Tarlahindur?

I think that everyone involved is throwing crap around and it's getting us no further than the mafia theory and game-breaking strategies were.

So how exactly does one get further?

[shaft.ed]

I'm gone til Monday. Have a good weekend.

[shaft.ed]

OK just got back in town. Not much time for posting today.

Tar I find your recent post a simple reiteration of points that I found lacking earlier. I will do a better job of analysing it tommorow so that you may respond to my points instead of a vague statement like this.

[shaft.ed]

I still feel that people are pushing for an opportunistic lynch on MoS.

While I agree with the above statement, I also feel that MoS's "plans" could quite well be the act of scum. Wish he had more posting to base his alignment on as the "plans" seem to be the only major tell he has given off.

[shaft.ed]

OK so what troubles me about this game is we basically have three events to base everything on.

1) MoS's craptastic plans and whether or not they were intentionally bad.

2) Tarlahindur's attack on me and Phate.

3) The blow back from Tarlahindur's attack on me and Phate.

Thus far a number of people are wholely responding to #1 and apparently ignoring #2-3 which means in their world there is only one important event. I think those people include:
MoS, Oman, Kuribo and Tyler.
I would like to posit that these people may be scum trying to lurk in plane sight and do not want to comment at risk of missing a lynch opportunity. I'd further state that Oman and MoS are less likely to be scum because MoS would naturally try to push suspicion away from himself to either myself or Tar whoever he thought he could get to take the heat, and Oman is less likely as he is pushing for MoS while Tar's votecount was moving upwards. That leaves me to believe that kuribo or Tyler are possible scum candidates that have gone undetected.

And Tar I know I owe you a reply to your last post, sorry I don't think I will have time to get it up today.

[shaft.ed]

Tyler, I'm not trying to paint everyone as scum, I'm trying to move discussion. I prefaced my post stating that I really dislike making lynch decisions based on such a small number of incidences and put forth an alternative way to look at players in order to generate further discussion in a new vein. As farside points out it's interesting that my querry stimulated your longest post to date. I also find it interesting that I'm getting more of the same avoidance from Kuribo. And am a little annoyed that noone wants to post in this game ('cept maybe the Aussies haven't had time yet).

[shaft.ed]

I was looking for either of two possible tells: scum stepping up to defend their scumbuddy or a weak townie (in the latter case, it's often done to get a pet townie), and scum trying to push a quickwagon (both well-known tells). On the whole, I consider the aggressive defense to be the more significant of the two.

I still don't agree with this idea. It's very convenient that either way someone responds to this you get a scum-tell. And I would still argue the opportunistic vote is more scummy than the defense.

(barring a player with a well-known history of aggressive bussing)

I don't think you've meta'd me yet.

You are arguing scumminess when what you are actually looking at is playstyle. My knee-jerk aggression in part due to me trying to bait out scum interactions and also due to me trying to get the game hunting and, you know,

trying to get people to start hunting for scum

.

I can completely understand your annoyance with the lack of scum hunting going on. I feel that people are disenchanted following the disasterous N1.

I supported the circle protect because I was in the original Quack Mafia and saw just how damaging it was for docs to randomly protect and the possibility that the setup was breakable (hell, the only reason I joined the game was to test and see if the circle-protect strategy would work after thinking of it and, IIRC, mentioning it in the original game). In retrospect, I was wrong, but I was blind to its flaws at the time.

I can see from some of your MD postings you are interested in the mechanics of this set up. But that just makes me more surprised that you wouldn't have noticed the failings of the circle protect.

You are either misreading or misrepresenting my post. Just because Phate is the *most likely* of the claimed Quacks to be scum does not necessarily mean that he *is* scum - by itself, it is nothing more than a minor scumtell. Just because you defended Phate does not necessarily mean that you are scum - by itself, it's just another scumtell. It's the combination of lots of little tells (and one really big one) that make me think you are probably scum.

Point taken that I can be scum buddying to Phate in this scenario but you did state:

Confirm Vote: shaft.ed
HoS: Phate

Note that at this point I am willing to switch between these two (as they are my top two scum candidates), but at this point I think that we should lynch either Phate or shaft.ed today.

Clearly you must think we are partnered.

That said, there is one HUGE scumtell that I am seeing in your posts, one that I have not been emphasizing enough, and it's the argument that you are conveniently ignoring. When I voted you (a vote on slightly inflated reasons, I admit, but one that I am pleased with regardless), you immediately responded with OMGUS (understandable but still scummy)... and then Phate, who you had defended earlier,

immediately started defending you by attacking me

, and you two have been on pretty much identical wavelengths ever since. I find it difficult to believe that two players would start building on each other's arguments unless one and probably both of them are scum.

Actually this is entirely inaccurate. You voted me on Jan 13, and had to confirm vote me before I voted for you on Jan 19. My vote came after you further clarified what I find to be an opportunistic strategy and is in no way an OMGUS vote. And if you were paying any attention to the voting record, Phate is actually the last person to vote for you on Jan 27. Lulubelle voted in the post immediately following my vote. If you are accusing anyone of buddying with me it should be her.

It's not just that you have both defended each other, it's not that both of you are leading an OMGUS attack on me -

your primary scumtell in my eyes is that you seem to be on the same wavelength as Phate to the extent that you are filling in his argument for him, and vice versa.

Again multiple players have pointed out the flaws in your plan. I don't know why you are zeroing in on me and Phate when there are at least 3 other players that have issues with your "trap."

[shaft.ed]

In short, the reason why I am now voting MoS is, when I looked over MoS'es posts, I couldn't find any MoS scumhunting in this game - instead, MoS is focusing primarily on game theory. This would ping my scumdar even under ordinary circumstances (it's the Information Instead of Analysis tell), but it's more damning than usual coming from MoS since I've used to MoS being an aggressive scumhunter.

The clearest example of this was hard to spot when I was just reading through the thread, but became blatantly obvious when I looked at MoS'es posts:

if you ignore MoS'es random vote on Day 1 (which he immediately unvoted in favor of No Lynch), then MoS has not voted for anyone during the course of the game

. Coming from MoS, that's very, very noteworthy - if not lynchworthy, then at least a sign that MoS is in serious need of some pressure.

I've never played with MoS but I have heard of his scumhunting abilities. And I do agree almost every post has been in defense of his poor breaking plans.

I'm not as sure about Tar as before. He may be trying to divert his wagon over to MoS. But MoS has been at or near the top of my scum list all day. I'll leave my vote on Tar for now, but I could definitely get behind an MoS lynch.

[shaft.ed]

Allright deadline's almost here. I guess I'm happy with an MoS or Tarhalindur lynch, but I'm leaving my vote on Tar because I think he is most likely scum. I think it's a bit convenient that he shifts his focus over to the only other viable candidate for a lynch when his ass is on the line with deadline approaching. Also won't leave out the possibility of bus'ing here as it's possible for both Tar and MoS to be scum.

[shaft.ed]

I'd rather a Tar lynch, but MoS is my second choice.

Unvote
Vote: MoS

But... I'd really rather a Tar lynch.

Phate it's three at deadline and MoS already has four. If you'd rather a Tar lynch it seems leaving your vote in place would suffice. Since farside hammered I guess my trying to persuade you is pointless.

Farside, same point to you MoS was at 4 when your vote went in, the likelihood of a no lynch was almost zero why the hammer vote?

[shaft.ed]

Crub, just wondering if the label of "town" on page 1 will go for both quacks and Docs, ie we'll never know the difference.

Correct - Crub

Not sure where to go from here. Tarhalindur is still my top suspect. I feel he may have moved his vote over to MoS simply to push the alternate bandwagon. Oman pretty much lurked through the last 2/3rds of the day and had tunnel vision on the mislynch. Second teir suspects would be kuribo and Tyler for similar non-contributive playstyles.

[shaft.ed]

Please remove your vote. We're at LyLo, scum can quicklynch with one misplaced vote. And that's a rather weak argument for your vote. Care to support it with your own facts and not MoS's. He didn't exactly perform well in this game.

FoS farside

[shaft.ed]

Nice, I'm scummy because I cast too broad a net, but you lay down cases against one less person than I. Good hypocricy you got going on there.

[shaft.ed]

HoS Farside

Horrible reason

for a Lylo vote. One thing saved you: scum rarely vote first in Lylo.

Shaft.ed looks town for asking Farside to remove the vote.

I also think Shaft.ed is town from the last two days.

Vote: Phate

I think he is scum

, and am willing to vote on it.

I get a HoS for voting and he votes because he is sure? I feel like I missed something.

QFT emphasis mine. Oman please explain yourself. This is not the time for "I think" "I have a hunch" or "my gut tells me" voting and you just pointed that out.

[shaft.ed]

FoS Phate
FoS Oman

Would you guys please not vote eachother for little to no reason. We are in LyLo. One misplaced vote can lead to a scum quicklynch. And you are both voting without making any case. This is either poor town play, scum trying to get momentum for an early day lynch, or scum distancing. Whatever of the above it is, it's not protown.

[shaft.ed]

Per your own post on this very thread:

For the record, voting right now would be against her best interests if she was scum - it would only lead to a quickmislynch if she were town voting town.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: above should read page not thread.

[shaft.ed]

and if you're scum, then shaft.ed probably is scum as well

Where did that come from?

Phate Tar is correct only one of you and Oman can be scum.

[shaft.ed]

Let me rephrase.

Tar is the other claimed quack?

Yes Oman, Phate and Tar are the claimed quacks. Meaning that at most only one of you three can be scum. Also meaning that at least 2 of me, Tyler, farside and kuribo must be scum. So mathematically it's in our best interest to lynch from the latter group. I would strongly suggest this course of action.

[shaft.ed]

ACtually Phate we don't know if there are any mafia in the Quack pool. If scum didn't NK N1 then you're all town. That means under one scenario everyone is the same, but under the other the Doc pool is way better than the quack.

[shaft.ed]

A three vote quicklynch is not neccessarily and easy thing to pull off. I wouldn't assume it would have to happen. But you do raise a good point.

[shaft.ed]

Oman your lack of posting here is disturbing me. You're very active on site. We're currently in LyLo. You vote without an explanation and then disappear.

[shaft.ed]

Oman, Phate and Tar all scored NK's N1. Thus at most only one can be scum.

I take it that noone is interested in my numbers. That makes me sad . If it's down to Phate or Oman I'll do a reread and see what I can come up with. But I would like more input. Tar & Tyler, can you please get up the strength to post something we need to get this one right.

[shaft.ed]

Again, if oman is scum you would expect that mafia didn't make any kill day one, as oman saw that it would benefit them. Unfortunately there is no way of knowing.

If Oman was scum Oman killed the person above him N1. Please pay attention folks.

[shaft.ed]

Not liking kuribo or Oman at the moment. Would like Tar to post but I've noticed he's down as VLA.

[shaft.ed]

I never once said Phate was scummy. I said Tar was scummy and MoS may be scum. Further I didn't like kuribo or Tyler for non-contributions. Kuribo just came in and regurgitated a point I made two pages ago so as to look like he's doing something. That's what I don't like about him. He's continuously rode on other people's play as if too look like he's doing something. He did the same with the MoS lynch yesterday and yet he gets no recognition for it. Me thinks his plan may be working.

[shaft.ed]

Hey, I'm voteing because I found scum. You were voting because a dead townie told you to.

When did Phate become scum? Last time I checked his alignment wasn't revealed yet. And you still haven't made any case against him.


Why is Kuribo called LTG btw?

[shaft.ed]

farside you never reported you didn't target last night, why is that kuribo and Tyler both got chewed out for it by me if I recall correctly.

Which means we have a missing quack. Farside protecting phate would not have killed him, because he's teh mafmaf.

You're making rather drawn out conclusions from such a simple scenario by which farside is a doctor so phate didn't die, or farside is scum making up the whole thing. This feels like an Oman farside push to take down Phate. Not liking it very much.

[shaft.ed]

And are we claiming in order or does it really matter, it's not like a role claim or anything. I don't mind going next.

[shaft.ed]

It hink it had something to do with the dice.

[shaft.ed]

I've told Phate and now I'll tell you a single townie vote without quicklynch when it takes three scum to perform one means nothing. Do you really think it'd be that easy for three people to pull off?

Farside you still didn't adress why you did not inform us yesterday. And LP did post twice at the begining of today before dropping off the face of the earth. Do you even know if he protected anyone?

[shaft.ed]

Considering everyone is posting, and either of us could get to -2 with no hassle, a quicklynch would not be hard.

Everyone is not posting now and no where near the level of posting was going on at the time of the original votes. Where's kuribo and Tyler? Tar did a hit and run and hasn't answered questions to the claim order. I don't see Phate around now either. And your still hanging around to pull your vote out from under any potential scum. This is a silly gambit. And one the scum could absolutely use against a townie. "Hey look I voted you and the rest of my teammates didn't quicklynch. You must be scum!"

[shaft.ed]

I'm leaving for the night in a few minutes. Don't really care about the claiming order. I targeted farside last night. I'm starting to think it was a bad idea.

[shaft.ed]

I'm leaving for the night in a few minutes. Don't really care about the claiming order. I targeted farside last night. I'm starting to think it was a bad idea.

Note if you will that he has no idea how to respond to my comment about how he tells those who didn't do night activities night one should not can be considered scummie and now is accusing me of being scum.

FOS: shaft.ed

Well it's a good thing you brought up your concerns before we went into the night phase so that other people that were influenced by my

suggestion

would also be able to target [/sarcasm]. Seriously, I don't see you having any concerns towards me yesterday:

he (shaft.ed) is going through everything in a step by step manner and pointing to people and reason's why they are scum which seem perfectly rationale.

And Oman do you care to continue defending your ridiculous assertion that since the three (possibly only two) scum didn't quicklynch Phate after your vote he is 100% scum?

Phate I'm seeing you post on site but not here. This seems like an important time for this game, care to weigh in with anything?

Tar would you care to comment on something besides dice tags?

[shaft.ed]

I'm not jumping on your for the decision at all. I'm jumping on the conclusion you and Oman are drawing from it. Oman is seeing hoofprints and calling them zebraprints. And you're gladly following along. Simplest explanation is that you're a Doc so your targeting did nothing last night. There are many more requirements on the scenario for you to be a Quack and Phate to be scum. Thus it is less likely. Add in Oman's BS argument that noone quicklynched Phate so he must be scum and I'm not liking the pair of you. This has nothing to do with your choice to protect last night.

[shaft.ed]

Posting is very pro-town

[shaft.ed]

Oman please reply to my questions towards your actions today or I will vote you. You have not addressed them in any significant way.
Specifically these points:

I've told Phate and now I'll tell you a single townie vote without quicklynch when it takes three scum to perform one means nothing. Do you really think it'd be that easy for three people to pull off?
...

Considering everyone is posting, and either of us could get to -2 with no hassle, a quicklynch would not be hard.

Everyone is not posting now and no where near the level of posting was going on at the time of the original votes. Where's kuribo and Tyler? Tar did a hit and run and hasn't answered questions to the claim order. I don't see Phate around now either. And your still hanging around to pull your vote out from under any potential scum. This is a silly gambit. And one the scum could absolutely use against a townie. "Hey look I voted you and the rest of my teammates didn't quicklynch. You must be scum!"

Which means we have a missing quack. Farside protecting phate would not have killed him, because he's teh mafmaf.

You're making rather drawn out conclusions from such a simple scenario by which farside is a doctor so phate didn't die, or farside is scum making up the whole thing. This feels like an Oman farside push to take down Phate. Not liking it very much.

[shaft.ed]

Oman you continue to push for Phate's lynch without making any case.

[shaft.ed]

Becaues I don't see Phate using ridiculously tortored logic to declare he has 100% found scum.

[shaft.ed]

My case is clear:

You claim to have 100% outed scum because you voted Phate and he wasn't quick lynched. Yet if you are scum there is no way he could be quicklynched. If you are town it would be quite risky for scum to attempt a three man quicklynch. You defend this argument by saying it is a matter of opinion.

You continue to push for a Phate lynch without any case against him and him miraculously becoming scummy in your eyes although you never stated anything against him (or about him at all for that matter) prior to your vote.

You claim that farside targeting Phate and Phate not dying must mean that Phate is scum and farside is the Quack that accounts for Phate not being one. Yet you don't consider that farside could be a Doc or a lying scum that fabricated the target. This is especially pertinent as farside claimed her predecessor targeted nobody N1 although they did post D2.

Yesterday you pushed for MoS' lynch based solely on his poor claiming strategies. I find less fault in this because I agreed he may be scum and his "strategies" were quite terrible.

[shaft.ed]

Again, I pose the question to the rest of the town. (Farside already answered, and I think you for that.)

Why *can't* both Phate and Oman be the scum?

Kuribo this has been answered multiple times. Please confirm after reading this that you understand. Oman, Phate and Tar all killed someone N1. Mafia only get one NK. Thus 2 or 3 of the above must be quacks, 1 or 0 are mafia.

[shaft.ed]

Wasn't it phate who suggested Quacks use their powers as cops?

So this is your case against him? Nothing more? That was played out in it's entirety yesterday. You didn't say a word. I've seen enough.

vote: Oman

[shaft.ed]

Kuribo, we circle targeted N1. This means we all know who targeted who unless they lied about that. But if scum tried targeting someone else it would have either a) run into Doc protection or b) overlapped with a quack kill unless they targeted someone directly above them like a quack would have.

[shaft.ed]

Wasn't it phate who suggested Quacks use their powers as cops?

So this is your case against him? Nothing more? That was played out in it's entirety yesterday. You didn't say a word. I've seen enough.

vote: Oman

No, thats not it, it was merely a point.

I want to ask you, what is scummier, Suggesting that quacks try to use their power as cops when two NKs (mafia+1) will end the game, or attacking somone who suggests quacks circle protect when two NKs will end the game?

The second suggestion is clearly more anti-town. As we've discovered from MoS's alignment it wasn't a very good scum-tell. I want to ask you yet again, where is you're case against Phate. If that is merely a point why is it the only thing you can bring up.

Also Oman, you have two votes on you, yet you haven't be quicklynched. Are you then more scummy than Phate since he wasn't quicklynched with one vote?

[shaft.ed]

Also Oman, you have two votes on you, yet you haven't be quicklynched. Are you then more scummy than Phate since he wasn't quicklynched with one vote?

You're not going to cause a double standard are you?

Just demonstrating how wonderfully your logic works.

[shaft.ed]

Also Oman, you have two votes on you, yet you haven't be quicklynched. Are you then more scummy than Phate since he wasn't quicklynched with one vote?

You're not going to cause a double standard are you?

Just demonstrating how wonderfully your logic works.

You and phate could be scum trying to convince others that Oman is the scum. I'm not trusting either Oman or you at this moment and I'm hoping to here from others about what is going on.

So then do you still subscribe to the idea that you must be a quack?

[shaft.ed]

I've already looked at phate... Don't need to do it again.

Kuribo, not a whole lot to derive from. Shaft.ed said that he seems to follow his lead, but looking around I have only found that he agreed with shaft.eds take on MoS and Phate (both seem insignificant). So shaft.ed please, if I am missing something, show me.

I said Kuribo was following Tarhalindur yesterday not me.

[shaft.ed]

Deadline?

Screw it, I'm voting for the player I think is scum. May the gods help me if I'm wrong.

Vote: shaft.ed

Astounding reasoning here. If I didn't think Oman was scum I might be a bit more upset, but I'm pretty sure you're a misguided townie. If you'd care to make a case against me I'll defend myself. But how can I argue against the gods?

[shaft.ed]

I would like to echo the above. Oman and Tar, cases are good when approaching deadline.

Kuribo, a post of any kind would be nice.

Tyler nothing more to say?

[shaft.ed]

The comments that shaft.ed made about the lack of quick lynch is not necessary and is down right dumb.

I know the logic is dumb. Oman was the one basing his vote on it, I was simply pointing out how easily scum can rig such a system. And Tar you're voting for the exact same reason. Lack of a quicklynch proves nothing, I don't know how many times I need to say it.

That's somewhat faulty, since even a confirmed townie would have no idea who the scum were. Now, if he were a confirmed cop (which we have none) that'd be different, but just because a townie gets townie-vibes from someone else doesn't mean anything.

QFT.

Obviously I think Oman and farside are the scum with one of Tyler/kuribo being the third partner. Tar is still basing his votes on a gut read of Phate from yesterday. I would encourage you to read over the idoicies Oman has been posting since the break of day 3.

[shaft.ed]

@shaft.ed. You only have me on you scum list because I think you are scum. This is the first time you have said anything about me as scum. I'm thinking I'm right about your connection with Phate.

No it's not reading is good. I stated I wasn't sure if you were a misguided townie or Oman's partner. I've since decided you are Oman's partner.

Also I didn't state this earlier but kuribo's recent post makes me believe him town, Tyler is likely the third scum.

[shaft.ed]

Due to the slow posting this is a while back but here is my original suspicion of you tied to Oman:

I'm not jumping on your for the decision

(to target Phate)

at all. I'm jumping on the conclusion you and Oman are drawing from it. Oman is seeing hoofprints and calling them zebraprints. And you're gladly following along. Simplest explanation is that you're a Doc so your targeting did nothing last night. There are many more requirements on the scenario for you to be a Quack and Phate to be scum. Thus it is less likely. Add in Oman's BS argument that noone quicklynched Phate so he must be scum and I'm not liking the pair of you. This has nothing to do with your choice to protect last night.

[shaft.ed]

shaft, regarding the idea that "No one quicklynched Phate, therefore he must be scum,"

While one would wonder if the scum would intenionally mislead the town by not quicklynching... I don't know. It's hard for me to get a read on that, because the scum have no reason to draw the game out by NOT quicklynching--- there are four of us, and three of them. If they quicklynch, we lose. (Equal numbers of mafia kill equal numbers of town) No night phase, No tomorrow, we just lose.

But the point is that Oman, who posited the idea, would not be able to quicklynch Phate if he (Oman) were scum. It's thus a self fulfilling prophecy for OmanScum. Even if you believe Oman's argument, which I don't, the fact he's been sitting on two votes this long by his admission is stronger evidence that he is scum since he's not been quicklynched than his prior evidence for Phate. The only other explanation for that is if Phate & myself are scum which is taking on even more assumptions than Oman's original point.

[shaft.ed]

Please explain why I am scummy...

Because of posts like these. You're either not paying any attention to the game or just trying to wait out the rest of the game. Pretty decent strategy if scum.

I am confused with the 'absolutely sure shaft.ed is scum' logic. please explain again.

Yes I felt Tar's logic was a bit tortured. I hope explaining it again will allow him to think about it harder.

So with that, I have Shaft.ed, Oman, and Phate. I can't imagine Oman being teamed up with either.

Ya think?

[shaft.ed]

Calling you scum is simple a process of elimination. I am further convinced Oman is scum than I was at the time of this posting. You are clearly following along with his craplogic. Hence I believe you to be his partner.

[shaft.ed]

No if you go along blindly with craplogic.

[shaft.ed]

Lulz, Shaft.ed. You seem to have caught yourself in an illogical hole where farside is scum purely from OMGUS!

Do you know how to read, she's scummy for following your ridiculous lead.

[shaft.ed]

Tar the scum are obviously playing strangely today. We already have at least one "confirmed" townie with two votes on them between Oman or Phate. Since either Oman or Phate is town the same can be said for their situation yet neither has been lynched.

[shaft.ed]

Crub. I know what you mean. I've been waiting for Tyler to cast a vote for weeks now. If he had just cast one against Oman or Phate farside or I could have easily switched our votes. It was driving me insane.

I felt bad for the town on this one. After N1 it seemed noone was really trying. The craziest part was that by the time I logged in to check the thread the No Lynch was already voted through. I couldn't believe that.

Tar, I agree the set-up is broken. The roles aren't worth using. Changing it to two quacks and 7 Docs might be worth trying.

Oman, while my argument against you sucked, it was just a mirror of your argument against me. I was actually just doing it so that if I got lynched today (which I expected after Tar's recent post) the town would be behooved not to lynch Phate tommorow. And you had me found out on Page 2 Nice work.

Kuribo, I wanted to kill off fictiondepartment's target, and that kill would have gone through. But If the circle protect had been completely carried out in both directions it would have outed One of us as scum. Didn't think it would be carried to conclusion, but depending on how many NK's were successful N1 there might have been a second round of circle protecting. In retrospect this wouldn't have worked for the town, so we should have targeted Lulu N1 instead of vollkan.

[shaft.ed]

Kuribo, I wanted to kill off fictiondepartment's target, and that kill would have gone through. But If the circle protect had been completely carried out in both directions it would have outed One of us as scum. Didn't think it would be carried to conclusion, but depending on how many NK's were successful N1 there might have been a second round of circle protecting. In retrospect this wouldn't have worked for the town, so we should have targeted Lulu N1 instead of vollkan.

Correct me if I'm wrong, though, but you wouldn't have had any way of knowing that fiction was flaking at the time as opposed to someone else, right?

No, but he was the most likely to flake. My initial theory was to kill the target of the player least likely to put in a Night Choice.