Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Psyche]

low effort bet is titus/ari if gera is town. i wish i could hedge and shoot you just in case but i guess there's some possibility that you're lying about being one-shot

[Psyche]

is low effort because it sort of uses the heuristic of "who has been doing the least rn", which is often wrong

[Psyche]

does it matter if i shoot hutao instead of ari?

[Psyche]

my thinking says we win either way as long as the kay read is correct and committed to

[Psyche]

yeah well i didnt listen to your naerys recommendation either

[Psyche]

have been toying w scenario where we test gera's claim w my shot...

[Psyche]

i think they have to leave you alive? otherwise what mislims can they win with?

[Psyche]

have been toying w scenario where we test gera's claim w my shot...

Couldn't scum kill whoever you say to protect? And that would be unable to figure out anything right?

if they kill within the uncleared it would be good

[Psyche]

but we can imagine scenarios where i am roleblocked or otherwise disrupted. scum has to be stacked

[Psyche]

Assuming I have a gun check left of course*

of courseeeee

[Psyche]

so hutao def doesnt want to be shot despite the reasoning that we win either way

[Psyche]

does RN or gera have readss

[Psyche]

am of course always happy to stew and participate in stewing

[Psyche]

so hutao def doesnt want to be shot despite the reasoning that we win either way

No. Like I said that scenario wouldn't cover gera town

hu tao is wrong here by the way
even if gera is town, we really only do need one consensus townread among the unconfirmed to ensure a win

[Psyche]

worst case scenario, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools:

D3:
gera flips town

N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 2 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue
and 2 town alive in:

D4:
4v2, mylo
remaining scum would be two of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 2/3 chance of guessing right!
suppose we guess right

N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc

D5:
3v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right

what i'm trying to reiterate here:
we only have to be right about one townread to guarantee victory in even this worst case scenario.
that is because tomorrow, supposing i really do have a shot and the shot goes through, we always avoid losing if we don't eliminate this townread!

also, hu tao has been wrong each time she claimed that scum have any reason to shoot her
they already have a slim path to victory,
and literally have no path to victory where they don't use all their shots on me/pc/rn
maybe she miscalculated, maybe it's motivated reasoning. who knows

[Psyche]

hopefully, game ends tonight!
but even if it doesn't,
being right about kay or whomever we reach a consensus townread about,

and sticking to that read

wins

[Psyche]

also, if there's a N5, titus gets another roleblock, and knows who to aim it at

[Psyche]

if titus is townn

[Psyche]

Okay final call from what I think should go down

Eliminate Gera
Titus: Roleblock Kay
Hu Tao: Gun check Kay
Psyche: Vig Ari

I think this leaves us in the best situation

titus should block more randomly than this if gera flips town
but i assume that's obv?

[Psyche]

ok yeah we're definitely limming gera
almost have no choice
shameful play if he's town

we don't really need to wait for RN but it's a shame given he will potentially decide the game if gers flips town...

[Psyche]

only reason to continue day is if anyone wants to have another say about where night actions go

i'm just gonna do what i want in the end, secure that it won't lose the game either way, but would loveee to be right

[Psyche]

any of these you particularly strongly feel is town?

[Psyche]

gera is like nas was to me — plausible enough to be anxious about, but ultimately the decision we have to make right now

do we autowin if he's scum? let me consider...

[Psyche]

woah i think i just detected quite an error!

still -- yeah, we should start reasoning from the starting point that gera will flip scum. this anxiety about him being town is natural but probably pointless

[Psyche]

worst case scenario if gera is scum, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools
assumes a siingle remaining scum is in (kay, hu tao, titus, ari)

D3:
gera flips scum

N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 1 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue

D4:
6v2 -> 4v1
remaining scum would be one of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 1/3 chance of guessing right!
we guess wrong, maybe picking titus so remaining scum would be one of: hutao/kay

N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc

D5:
2v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right

something feels off in this math. it seems to imply that whether we call gera correctly or not, we have the same chance of winning. there's either an error here or in my earlier post

[Psyche]

only reason to continue day is if anyone wants to have another say about where night actions go

i'm just gonna do what i want in the end, secure that it won't lose the game either way, but would loveee to be right

No stalling please 🙏

if you're bored you can just go do something else this weekend

[Psyche]

worst case scenario if gera is scum, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools
assumes a siingle remaining scum is in (kay, hu tao, titus, ari)

D3:
gera flips scum

N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 1 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue

D4:
6v2 -> 4v1
remaining scum would be one of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 1/3 chance of guessing right!
we guess wrong, maybe picking titus so remaining scum would be one of: hutao/kay

N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc

D5:
2v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right

something feels off in this math. it seems to imply that whether we call gera correctly or not, we have the same chance of winning. there's either an error here or in my earlier post

This is wrong since Kay would have been role blocked. Thus only having a scum in me or Titus from any scenario

i'm covering the worst scenario; which would include scum having a way around the roleblock

[Psyche]

i swear it feels like you're jumping to conclusoins a lot today
we're really not even imagining that the scum could have a juggernaut or their own interruption role?

[Psyche]

I don't think scum have a strong arm otherwise NaS' role makes no sense

why not? nas's role only realistically gets in the way of RN's role. if titus has a roleblock, scum must have other relatively strong abilities

[Psyche]

there's really no way i don't aim at hutao tonight, particularly if we end now

[Psyche]

think calling it a masterclass overrates the town's abilities exhibited this game
if we lose this eminently winnable game it's because we're bad

[Psyche]

there's really no way i don't aim at hutao tonight, particularly if we end now

Just do it then. If you want to play suboptimal I cannot stop you.

imo it's you playing suboptimally -- and dropping a lot of underbaked takes at a pivotal point in the game

[Psyche]

intellectually lazy and rushing everything
trajectory is hardly any better than RN's D1

[Psyche]

even if kay is townie,

this

town can still end up making the wrong call and limming her anyway
you and i agreeing isn't enough to lock in the win

[Psyche]

what plan?

your

plan was flawed. kay the newbie player had to correct it. and it didn't even hedge for gera flipping town after that.

[Psyche]

Psyche when you were scum last game. What did I do? I voted right after I had my read the last day. I just don't like stalling in general when I've already made up my mind

if town had taken their time last game, i would have lost. my win con was the two masons locking in their decision

[Psyche]

another example is the repeated prediction that scum would NK you tonight
a little stewing and we now know for a fact that NKing you loses the game for scum

[Psyche]

Psyche when you were scum last game. What did I do? I voted right after I had my read the last day. I just don't like stalling in general when I've already made up my mind

if town had taken their time last game, i would have lost. my win con was the two masons locking in their decision

Town literally did :lol: that's the funny part.

day was ended substantially before deadline
town even had option to lim another confirmed scum slot and save the decision over my 1v1 for another day!
they declined -- in dramatic fashion in the end

but whatever. im certainly aware that long delays can get in the way of otherwise good reads too

[Psyche]

you're not even rigt about what your stance was that game;
you warned jv to unvote and avoid hasty decision-making many times that game.
you said anyone who voted immediately was "claimed scum"
you could see the danger in hasty decision-making when it was

someone else

locking in a decision too quickly
but i guess you're above it all

[Psyche]

all this does make it easier to understand how the self-voting thing could have come from town i guessss

[Psyche]

ok. im overattached to the image of hutao as just a broadly skilled player (which may be true!) instead of picking up on her patterns.
created a situation where any mistake read as a potential scumtell.
will update reads. could always do the remaining vacillating tonight if it comes to it.

[Psyche]

not saying we need to go on forever
i definitely went overboard yesterday when i called for another night to think things through
my current thinking is that if there are

concrete

things beyond mere ambivalence that could be done to improve town or townie's understanding of the gamestate, we give it a chance to happen
gera's readlist imo has already been given a chance to happen

[Psyche]

i know the feeling
im going to try to think through a couple more scenarios and call it a wash

[Psyche]

oh ive been working on something to automate this vc highlighting thing
maybe ill shut up and finally finish it

[Psyche]

Ok. I'm just blocking Kay unless it changes. Reality is bogging me down.

block at random across unconfirmed if gera flips town

[Psyche]

Ok. I'm just blocking Kay unless it changes. Reality is bogging me down.

Titus are you unable to spend time to play this game at any point in the next five days

I am playing? We have a consensus scumread and a gameplan, so why prolong it?

the trouble is that you could end up one of the options in an upcoming mylo scenario, and idk if you'd survive given your light engagement this game

[Psyche]

but whatevsss

[Psyche]

hi rn
id be happy to give you a objective-ish walkthrough of the current gamestate if you'll hang around

[Psyche]

so there are 5 unconfirmed slots, only one of which has claimed VT:
Titus (odd night roleblocker)
Hu Tao (??? gunsmith, learned PC is town)
Aristeia (VT)
geraintm (one-shot doctor, unused)
KayJayQueue (N2 informed townie, learned PC is town)

and 3 confirmed slots:
Random Nurse (you, IC)
Political Clout (confirmed by kay and hutao)
Psyche (??? vig, shot davesaz)

I have another shot I can use tonight.
Titus had a RB she can use tonight.
Hutao is playing coy about what she can do with her role at this point.

[Psyche]

worth keeping in mind that 4 VTs have died up to this point while you speculate about who's claim might be fake!

[Psyche]

geraintm
it's the other scum i'm worried about
maybe two scum if it turns out gera's town
there's a good chance that your vote will decide a MYLO scenario tomorrow and/or the next day

[Psyche]

We can reason about the best and worst case scenario for town right now.

In the worst case scenario, we consistently make the wrong decision and all our abilities fail to have their intended effect.
Here's a simulation with arbitrary yet plausible choices for lims/kills.

D3
currently 6v2
we lim in the unconfirmed -- maybe gera,
he flips town, 5v2

N3
i shoot in the unconfirmed -- maybe ari,
she flips town, 4v2
Titus's roleblock fails to interrupt a night kill
someone among the confirmed -- maybe me! -- flips town, 3v2

D4
3v2, a mislim or lose scenario
there are 2 scum in the 3 surviving unconfirmed; in this imagining -- hutao, titus, kay,
so we have pretty good odds of being successful!
if we aren't, we lose
to finish the simulation, let's suppose we are successful, and titus is limmed and turns out to be scum
3v1

N4
scum kill in the confirmed again
maybe PC flips town, 2v1

D5
it's a 1v1 between the two remaining unconfirmed
with RN as the deciding vote

***

some key things indicated by this simulation:
- scum can't kill in the unconfirmed if they want to win
- if town can clear just one more slot, it cannot lose

[Psyche]

this back and forth kind of leaves me confident that kay will never even really be scumread, let alone mislimmed. so hutao is probably right that all this is wasted breath.

[Psyche]

some remaining qs in my head:
- what if my shot doesn't even happen?
- can we deduce anything else from claims? for example, is it plausible that town has as much power as it does under the scenario where aristeia (our last VT claim) is scum?

[Psyche]

...if my kill doesn't happen after a gera townflip, it's still MYLO tomorrow, but with worse odds of town being successful. 1/2 instead of 2/3
spooky

[Psyche]

- if town can clear just one more slot, it cannot lose

this line is wrong. whether i kill tonight or not, we can lose if gera flips town and kay is treated as confirmed.

I don't get why Kay can't be mafia but if you all think its a won game I'm not going to spend any more effort on it

no my whole point w all these posts is that it's not a won game

[Psyche]

nevermind; the logic assuming i succeed at my kill tonight is valid
if it's 2 scum in 3, then we really do just need one townread to stay firm.
it's only if my kill fails that things are trickier.

[Psyche]

this back and forth kind of leaves me confident that kay will never even really be scumread, let alone mislimmed. so hutao is probably right that all this is wasted breath.

I didn't understand this then. like why is kay a consensus townread?

So, I guess I genuinely can't find a single kay post that reads as scummy. I townread her because I can't scumread her. Can you pull together a decent reason to scumread kay outside of POE?

[Psyche]

We (everyone actually playing) are all as sure we can be gera is scum I think.
So maybe not worthwhile to handwring over the worst case scenario.
If gera is scum, the worst case scenario is considerably sunnier...

D3
currently 6v2
we lim in the unconfirmed -- maybe gera,
he flips scum, 6v1

N3
i shoot in the unconfirmed -- maybe ari,
she flips town, 5v1
Titus's roleblock -- let's say targetted at kay -- fails to interrupt a night kill. could be because she missed scum, but also could be because scum have a way around a roleblock. could also be because she's scum!
someone among the confirmed -- maybe me! -- flips town, 4v1

D4
4v1, NOT a mislim or lose scenario
there is 1 scum in the 3 surviving unconfirmed
so we could miss!
but otoh the logic underlying titus's roleblock is a key factor in the lim decision.
...can we talk about how much this constrains things?

[Psyche]

I don't understand how her role as claimed can be balanced

so the wiki page about this has some useful context that could help you think through this: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Informed
it suggests we can think of an informed townie as a like a stronger IC, but a weaker one-shot cop

it's weaker than a cop because the player gets no choice over who is scanned
it's stronger than an ic because it's like having an IC

plus

a named role
idk you check it over

[Psyche]

so let's say i get my kill and gera flips scum
also, titus RBs kay
is that enough to confirm a win?
does it at least take another unconfirmed off the table?

[Psyche]

Titus RB scenarios after a scumflip:
NK doesn't happen -- kay is scum and titus is simultaneously confirmed town! we win
NK does happen -- (kay is not scum -- hutao is) OR (kay is not scum -- titus is and never RBd!) OR (kay is scum and can get around titus's RB somehow)

where a successful NK this leave us D4?
it looks to me like it's still a 1v1v1

we probably more strongly lean toward townreading kay though, kay being scum AND having exactly the right role to sidestep titus's RB is relatively unlikely.

[Psyche]

ok, now i see the logic in RBing a relatively strong townread (kay). it gets us as close to another confirm as we can get in this gamestate.

[Psyche]

oh, im probably undervaluing a D4 1v1v1.
it's not mylo tomorrow if gera flips scum.
this means we can safely lim two in that 1v1v1 without any risk.

in the worst case (assuming gerascum), telling titus to RB kay is probably enough to convince that kay is town. She's

very very lucky

if she's scum AND widely townread AND can avoid a RB.
so in this worst case scenario, it's as safe a bet as we can get that kay is town
therefore, we pretty much win, except in the scenario where kay is

very very lucky

[Psyche]

Ah, but I'm forgetting the scenario where my shot fails after gera flips scum.
Ugh how tedious.

[Psyche]

if my vigshot is interrupted, we can assume that's scum's whole ability! So kay is confirmed town if the NK succeeds.
D4 is a 1v1v1 again, but this time between titus, hutao, ari
Town gets two chances to get it right -- D4 and D5
not as cool
but still pretty good odds we win

[Psyche]

what if i shoot titus while we instruct to RB kay?
this makes it easier to interpret the rb (since we'll know titus really is RB), but i guess kay could still be scum with a workaround
next day is hutao vs ari vs kay
kay is even closer to softconfirmed but otherwise things are not much different. or am i wrong? wonder if i could get someone else to think this through

[Psyche]

My math says that the only difference between me shooting ari or hutao tonight and me shooting titus tonight is that we get an even clearer idea of kay's by D4.
Does this mean I shoot titus? Or is my math wrong?

[Psyche]

I don't see how a roleblocker fits in with all of this. I Lind of feel maybe Titus is Scum and tried to give a convincing fake claim. Maybe launch her instead of gera today? If not why launch gera first?

If you townread gera and scumread titus, it might still be best to lim gera anyway because of titus's RB claim.

If titus is town, the RB has a reasonable chance of interrupting the night kill.
If titus is scum, we can still direct her target tonight and infer things about her target afterward. In particular, we can more strongly townread the person we direct her target

if

the NK succeeds. This narrowing down of options will help us eliminate her.

On the other hand, we can't learn much by directing gera's doctor shot.

[Psyche]

If gera is scum and i kill titus while she rbs kay, here's the worst case scenario:

D3
currently 6v2
we lim in the unconfirmed -- maybe gera,
he flips scum, 6v1

N3
i shoot titus
titus is town and roleblocks kay -- fails to interrupt a night kill. could be because she missed scum, but also could be because scum have a way around a roleblock.
someone among the confirmed -- maybe me! -- flips town, 4v1

D4
4v1, NOT a mislim or lose scenario. we have two lims until we lose!
there is 1 scum in the 3 surviving unconfirmed of {hutao, ari, kayjayqueue}
town knows that titus is a roleblocker who targetted kay

potential explanations for the NK's success:
- kay is scum but got around Titus's roleblock (unlikely)
- hutao is scum
- ari is scum

So kay is softconfirmed town. She might be scum, but probably isn't.
We win because we can eliminate ari and then hutao OR eliminate hutao then ari without losing.

my conclusion: i should shoot titus tonight instead of ari/hutao

[Psyche]

that's maybe another reason to aim at her!
but yeah ill redo the thinking

[Psyche]

interesting factor: a jailkeeper could both stop titus's RB and prevent my kill if i target titus

[Psyche]

If gera is scum and my kill fails while titus is a scum roleblocker, here's the worst case scenario:

D3
currently 6v2
we lim in the unconfirmed -- maybe gera,
he flips scum, 6v1

N3
i target titus, but my kill attempt fails
titus maybe roleblocks kay -- fails to interrupt a night kill because {scum-kay has a way around a roleblock} OR {titus is scum and RBd me}
someone among the confirmed -- maybe me! -- flips town, 5v1

D4
5v1, we have two lims until we lose!
there is 1 scum in the 4 surviving unconfirmed of {hutao, ari, kayjayqueue, titus}

potential explanations for the NK's success + failed vig:
- titus is scum and RB'd me
- kay is scum but got around Titus's roleblock AND interrupted my kill (jailkeeper)
- hutao is scum and RB'd me
- ari is scum and RB'd me

So kay is softconfirmed town. She might be scum jailkeeper, but that's it.
Win is no longer guaranteed, since town can mislim twice (e.g., ari then hutao).

[Psyche]

while it's possible, i don't think it's

especially

likely that titus is a roleblocker under the scenario where she's scum
the main thing is that scum must have known that dannflor wouldn't report a PR result/action the next day
lots of roles can do this -- e.g., rolecop, jailkeeper, tracker, gunsmith, motion detector, etc.
and that information could have been gained from another slot, too -- e.g., gera

the jailkeeper possibility is a little scary. mafia jailkeepers are apparently uncommon though. and i don't think it actually accounts for town power that well here given that it would actually make my vig role more powerful by sometimes keeping me from shooting an ally (the scenario where i vigshot the same person that mafia are jailkeeping). if town is very powerful, datisi would assign scum roles that are more reliably pro-scum.
so my leaning is that we should ignore the scenario.

[Psyche]

im thinking we should end the day by next page

[Psyche]

i have spent a lot of posts obsessing over this, but ultimately it feels as difficult (and pointless?) as imagining a game where NAS is town did yesterday
in that scenario, i think me and titus just make our best guess with our night abilities and then the town has to decide across the 3 (or 4) unconfirmed still alive.
i should be a little cagey about who i'll shoot in that scenario. it's probably obvious that it won't be kay and that i'm definitely pondering hutao, but that's as far as i should probably go.

[Psyche]

i can give you pro/cons for each read though? since im sort of mixed on everyone i guess it won't actually be that telling for predicting my shot

[Psyche]

What gave it away?

you jumping off naerys to vote PC even though you thought she was lockscum
you not really re-evaluating after naerys elim
your "scumread" of PC that just mysteriously vanished for no reason
you buddying Random Nurse because he has the awareness level of head of cabbage
you showing absolutely no fustration with RN whatsoever despite him just being completely delusional
you not voting me even though you're posturing you think I'm mafia
you defending titus/drew on lol grounds and never re-evaluating the slot after they had the shadiest wagon hop on ever into Naerys
you never re-evaluating the Naerys read even though she did like thirteen different contortions
you cared too much on the initial push on d1

can someone outside ari/hutao help clarify if there's anything to any of the charges levied here? i guess ideally kay would do it but i would never be so bold to ask a specific person

I think this shows Ari is highly likely to be town.
However
I think these postulations are inaccurate and/or forcing reads to fit the narrative of the specific theory. I UNDERSTAND Ari’s getting from point A to B and making this list but she’s pushing her personal feelings about some of these situations onto Hu. We can’t largely base scum theories on why someone is doing something/it being different from what one person would do/is doing/is feeling in the same situation. I believe a lot of this was fueled by emotion and wanting to find a scumtell or 5.

re: kay, i think this is an example of a pretty convincing post as far as townreading goes. the question sort of came out of the blue and offered an out for her to pass on it. she didn't need to reply, she didn't need to go into this much detail, she didn't need to make an actual substantive contribution -- she could've played "i'm not sure" and done a review of pros/cons. instead, she outright townread you and then critically analyzed your post anyway. hard to imagine coming from scum, particularly a newbie. all but impossible for me.

[Psyche]

could you have managed a reply like 2172 as scum?

[Psyche]

haa that makes sense. don't know why i didn't anticipate you'd feel that way

[Psyche]

now doing a sequence of posts about why gera should be positively scumread, even if you treat his inactivity and claim as null:

vote count 1.06

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-03-04 01:00:00).

yeet

Hu Tao [5]:

Naerys, Aristeia, NotAScum, Dannflor, geraintm

Klick [2]:

davesaz, Political Clout

Naerys [2]:

Hu Tao, KayJayQueue

Psyche [1]:

Doctor Drew

not voting [3]:

Random Nurse

, Klick, Psyche

vote count 1.final

with 13 votes in play, it took 7 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

yeet

Naerys [7]:

Random Nurse

, davesaz, geraintm, Hu Tao, Titus, Aristeia, NotAScum

[HAMMER]

NotAScum [2]:

Dannflor, Klick

not voting [4]:

Naerys, KayJayQueue, Political Clout, Psyche

vote count 2.07

with 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-03-09 17:15:00).

yeet

NotAScum [4]:

Hu Tao, Aristeia, Titus, Dannflor

Political Clout [1]:

davesaz

Aristeia [1]:

Random Nurse

Hu Tao [1]:

NotAScum

Dannflor [1]:

Political Clout

not voting [3]:

geraintm, KayJayQueue, Psyche

AS i said i would, looking at the wagons from yesterday and today to see what info can be gleaned.

These are the 3 biggest wagons.

Titus (Doctor Drew) - On Naerys and NAS
Hu Tao - On Naerys and NAS
NotAScum - On both yesterday
Aristeia - On all 3!
geraintm - On both yesterday
Political Clout - Off all 3!
KayJayQueue - Off all 3!
Dannflor - On Hu Toa and NAS
davesaz - On Naerys
Psyche - Off all 3!

My god that is weird.

Political Clout, KJQ and Psyche not on any of them
Aristeia was on all of them. They also had a very weird public meltdown.

I think i am trusting Titus' claim at the moment (a roleblocker with limitations).
{Are there any other claims?}

With the struggles we have had pushing through eliminations, maybe because scum are sitting off so much and not being on any? I can see it being a 2 scum off the elimination yesterday.

I think when i next have some time i'll look at the 3 who haven't touched any of the wagons and see why.

this is gera's one attempt at substantive content
even if you squint, there's nothing here
furthermore, gera never follows up, provides reads, anything
maybe he's that bad, but another guess is that he's not really seeking reads.
i think badtown gera would have ultimately posted some reads, but they would have been mediocre.

[Psyche]

here are some posts from maybe the longest extended exchange gera had (with me and others about his nihilistic attitude re:D1)

For me, whether a lim has to be forced by deadline is the rule of thumb for whether it was difficult to achieve. Post counts not really a factor. Naeyrs's lim happened well before it thanks to a couple players prioritizing ending D1 over making sure town was making a good choice.

We were never making a good choice yesterday

this fits with gera's meta

For me, whether a lim has to be forced by deadline is the rule of thumb for whether it was difficult to achieve. Post counts not really a factor. Naeyrs's lim happened well before it thanks to a couple players prioritizing ending D1 over making sure town was making a good choice.

We were never making a good choice yesterday

just how strong is your NAS townread?

When did I say I had a strong townread on not a scum?

practically asserts a NAS nullread. think gera would look more town here if he said he hadn't read or digested the thread enough to have a take on NAS or other slots. instead, he's implying he has reads! that's scummy itself -- i don't believe he has any at this point.

but let's consider further context:
NAS was at least a plausible lim on D1; slightly different decisions and it would've happened.
There were other plausible lims -- PC, hutao -- but NAS was the second most supported lim by hammer.
"We were never making a good choice yesterday" implies a belief in understanding of the thinking behind

all

these wagons, and rejection of all that thinking.
This is untenable for a couple reasons:
- There's no way gera has engaged with thread to understand all these wagons, or enough of them to say this.
- There's no way an absolute nihilist about town's ability to lim above chance D1 is

at the same time

confident enough in his ability to evaluate justifications for scumreads to make such a declaration

To summarize, it takes a high level of cognitive doubt to have gera's attitude about D1, and I don't think it's consistent w declarations like these. Especially without high engagement with thread that would resolve such doubts.

We were never making a good choice yesterday

That’s a weird thing to seem certain about, or am I just reading into it too much. Hmm.

A good choice has strong logic behind it. Day 1 there is never strong logic behind an elimination, it is 10 guts and 3 scum pushing who they want.

This is gera's synthesis that answers the issues raised about post 2013. It's internally consistent in itself. It even explains how gera can say such a thing without even reading the thread. This is enough to make me waver on the scumread, but ultimately it doesn't address the dissonance between his cognitive doubt about town's D1 abilities and his confidence here and in the problematic post. Suggests to me someone hiding behind his meta, but a flanderized view of it that discards all nuance and depth in it. We receive gera's attitude about mafia, but not the kind of person who'd have it.

not sure if this kind of reasoning appeals any better than "this person's most substantive contribution to this game are shit and incomplete" though

[Psyche]

i guess it's clear at this point in the game we uh have different read styles it seems, ari
we're maybe not getting over that bridge today
best reassurance i can give is that it probably doesn't matter at this point:
the gera read is probably good, and enough to make the rest of the game easy mode

[Psyche]

think it'll be helpful to have someone reasonably skeptical of kay around tomorrow

[Psyche]

i guess hutao is willing to be that person too though if it comes to it

[Psyche]

gera's claim is scummy too! it's tough to imagine that he wouldn't used his shot N1 or N2.
and his disengagement following his tepid defense of critique is also suspicious. even when i tried to give him a chance to engage w the game beyond arguing his read is credible, he passed.
i do think we don't have to worry too much about the scenario where he's town.
gerascum is worth betting the game on! and we can rest easy knowing just that

[Psyche]

I'm fine with yeeting Gera if you don't want to talk further.

I was just really annoyed you thought that was a good post when it was full of vague word salad nonsense and tried to discredit me by claiming I'm being emotional or whatever

it's still a newbie in the end.
my opinion about your take would be that you're evalling too much on whether it's a good post rather than the likelihood that it could have come from scum.
but idk! even if kay turns out to be town i think we'll be divided on how to interpret posts like that one

[Psyche]

Let's launch gera.

Psyche, are you open to Vig'ing Titus? If not who? If you get roleblocked are you going to suspect Titus?

This is really important for you to know:

I

will

shoot Titus if gera flips scum. If my kill resolves and the game continues, you'll know she really was a town roleblocker.
If my kill doesn't resolve, then I was interrupted somehow, and you won't know if it was her ability or another player's.

Titus is committed to roleblocking KayJayQueue.
If the roleblock resolves and kayjayqueue is scum, then no NK will happen. You will know kayjayqueue is scum and can win from there!

If an NK

does

happen, then there are three possibilities:
- Titus did not really roleblock kay (and is scum)
- Kay is scum and sidestepped the roleblock somehow
- Someone besides kay is scum and performed the kill!

But if I also succeed at killing Titus and revealing she is a town roleblocker, then there are fewer possibilities:
- Kay is scum and sidestepped the roleblock somehow
- Someone besides kay is scum and performed the kill!

You should townread kay more strongly tomorrow if the NK happens and Titus is flipped town.
This is because kayscum only avoids being roleblocked under very specific, and unlikely, conditions in that scenario.
That means you should spend D4 and D5 limming whomever is still alive of the unconfirmed players.

Since I am shooting titus and we are limming gera, in this scenario those living players you should lim are Hutao and Ari. In whichever order you want!

[Psyche]

How possible is it that PC could be Scum?

10%?

I trust you all to know about the ins and outs of this but is there literally any possible way I’m given a “PC is aligned with the town” if he’s not actually town? I assumed it was a 100% confirmation.

This assumes you're not lying.

It is very well possible Scum could have that Informed modifier, and that PC could still be Town.

Or you're both Scum.

I'll walk through this too.

Hu Tao has claimed that she used a gunsmith ability on PC and found he is a VT.
Before that, kay claimed that she was passively informed on N2 that PC is a VT.

There are two scum alive, so zero, one, or two people are lying right now.
If both Hu Tao and Kay are lying about their roles, then PC is still town because there are only two scum alive -- the two liars.
But maybe one of Hu Tao and Kay are scum and lying about their roles! PC is still town because the player among Hutao and Kay who is not lying really

does

know that PC is town.
Under all possible scenarios, PC is town. Even in the scenario where Hutao and Kay are both fakeclaiming.

[Psyche]

also: if tomorrow hutao says she scanned kay N3 and got a scum result, she is

lying

gotta put that out there

[Psyche]

i have raised this suspicion after hutao's claim and she has done her best to answer it. will avoid weighing in on it while gera could be town.

[Psyche]

think town's chances are maxed out in that scenario if i don't commit to a specific shot tonight under the geratown scenario

[Psyche]

like we can imagine a situation under geratown where scum has to decide tonight between disrupting titus's action and disrupting my action. we want to make that choice as hard as possible

still: under geratown, if my kill succeeds, town's chances of being right will be 2/3. my strategy then would be to reflect on how N3 went, choose the townread you trust most, and then don't vote them out.

if my kill fails, it's 50/50.
but for you, it's not 50/50. you know you're town, or you're scum.
possible solves are titus/hutao, kay/hutao, titus/kay.
i strongly prefer the solve without kay, so if i were in your shoes and town, i'd be pushing the titus/hutao solve. maybe compromise with me for a day and save kay for later.
still, titus probably gets the most attention at that point, even has a result to report.

[Psyche]

i think it gets easier to sort kay if i target titus
but i guess we're talking about the scenario where gera flips town?
i'll read your posts suggesting kills in that scenario! won't give a clear opinion i guess

[Psyche]

if hutao's scum, who's her last buddy?

[Psyche]

im not a wall. i've read and all. it wasn't for nothing

[Psyche]

oh right you really think kay is scum. well i'm not going to be alive to make that call probably. if i am i'll know there's something fishy

[Psyche]

nah

VOTE: geraintm

[Psyche]

gera flipping scum is the scenario where i am certain to vig titus
i hope my better posts get quoted some time tomorrow.....

[Psyche]

I'm really surprised it's not obv at this point that Ari is town

[Psyche]

i'll walk through some scenarios in a bit

[Psyche]

What is everyone's take on who the last scum is? Try copping some reads one last time. Am most interested in kay and ari's reads.

[Psyche]

gimme a bit RN!

[Psyche]

haha
none of the uncomfirmed are on the same page about the remaining scum

[Psyche]

ok almost back at desk...

[Psyche]

quite a stretch to call those posts a softclaim
but why would it clear you if we agreed you softed gunsmith D1
are you saying you never soft/breadcrumb roles as scum?

[Psyche]

arent they both saying its me

sorry!

[Psyche]

man im so glad to still be alive

[Psyche]

If I was scum and wanted both my partners gone by d3 I think I'd be in almost certain auto loss

but if you were scum right now, you'd

not

be in autoloss.
not even in the scenario where i shoot ari or whatever.
and definitely not in the scenario where everyone townreads you for supposedly definitely wanting both NAS/gera gone by D3.

[Psyche]

i still cant believe you actually vigged titus after i told you the only way that shot would work is if she was town smh

sorry i don't recall much engagement from anyone about my logic for shooting titus besides the belief that someone else is scum
could you quote the post and/or walk me through the reasoning?

[Psyche]

i did consider the scenario where scum doesn't use their NK at all last night
but i decided it would be a solid outcome since i'd be alive in that scenario

[Psyche]

Oh I remember. But why was that a problem for solving the game that the shot only goes off if Titus is town?

[Psyche]

I mean I was well-aware that if scum had a way to disrupt my shot, they'd probably use it only in the condition that I am aiming scum...

[Psyche]

ok thanks for walking me through your thinking

[Psyche]

ultimately your D1 trajectory on NAS seems to tee him up as a possibility but

in practice

go all-in on Naeyrs
the D2 position around NAS is more interesting for sure
if there was any chance of the NAS lim failing D2 then yeah that's a good reason to townlean you

[Psyche]

there's the possibility of bussing for sure but i think gera's poor position would have motivated you to try avoiding that
on the other hand, one could argue you were locked into pushing NAS after your D1 trajectory, making even my previous post shakier than i figured when i made it

anyway im procrasting from the real stuff

[Psyche]

so...
my math says scum not shooting is just the town getting to vote on an extra vig shot -- that they get to vote on instead of trusting me to aim
why is last night's outcome such a disaster scenario?

[Psyche]

i guess it's a disaster compared to me aiming correctly or the NK failing AND me shooting some other town i guess

[Psyche]

unless scum have a way to survive it..?

[Psyche]

ah but that'd test a fakeclaim

[Psyche]

no i guess scum could have an ability that blocks it even if it's not aimed at them

[Psyche]

you can't imagine any other ability but mafia doctor that would disrupt a vig shot..?

[Psyche]

sure but you would have had that in mind while coming up with your fakeclaim

[Psyche]

I dunno how to say this.
I keep getting into these situations where you say something is the case as if it's certain when in fact it's quite possible that it's not the case.
These make me want to scumread you, or at least substantially doubt what you're saying.
It might be helpful -- for persuading me of things -- if you acknowledge these edge cases when you post your claims, even if you think they are barely worth thinking about.
If it turns out that these edge cases are not even occurring to you, well that'll help me sort you too.

[Psyche]

I'm of the mindset of trying to disconfirm the scenario where you really are pulling off an "oscar worthy performance". You are a really skilled player, so that scenario has to be weighed somewhat seriously.

[Psyche]

yeah! that seems to be the way to clear you. find the state transition that a skilled player wouldn't make

[Psyche]

...that's probably in D2

[Psyche]

im gonna say i don't have a shot, and did aim at titus

[Psyche]

okkkkk
one last question
how can you possibly scumread ari at this point

[Psyche]

all that handwringing about gera maybe being town and kay stealing the game was fake?
and the aggression re: feeling bullied into voting Naeyrs, and also afterward for being blamed for it?

[Psyche]

sure.
i see that you scumread ari even into D2 and implicitly opted to push NAS over her.
would have been totally possible for you to do a whiplash and scumread her, putting off NAS for another day (or vig) like you did on D1.

[Psyche]

sure.
i see that you scumread ari even into D2 and implicitly opted to push NAS over her.
would have been totally possible for you to do a whiplash and

scumread

push her, putting off NAS for another day (or vig) like you did on D1.

[Psyche]

think i've changed to at least null on dave
if i were to follow the path of least resistance i would say that the scum are

NotAScum
Aristeia
geraintm

but honestly reality usually has a rule of cool element to it that makes me prefer to doubt this list
who am i most likely to be wrong about? does it even matter if getting even my top scumread limmed feels impossible? one thing titus's style has going for it is that it excludes the need for such considerations

it cant be
noo

[Psyche]

What gave it away?

you jumping off naerys to vote PC even though you thought she was lockscum
you not really re-evaluating after naerys elim
your "scumread" of PC that just mysteriously vanished for no reason
you buddying Random Nurse because he has the awareness level of head of cabbage
you showing absolutely no fustration with RN whatsoever despite him just being completely delusional
you not voting me even though you're posturing you think I'm mafia
you defending titus/drew on lol grounds and never re-evaluating the slot after they had the shadiest wagon hop on ever into Naerys
you never re-evaluating the Naerys read even though she did like thirteen different contortions
you cared too much on the initial push on d1

this thing came from scum?

[Psyche]

In my inclination to try to have logical rather than gut-based reasons for my things, I guess I could see a world where I vote ari.
I am probably forced to delay a hutao lim either way.
Congrats if you're scummmm.

[Psyche]

but that would mean that all the PR claims were true. can i accept that?

[Psyche]

ugh. still really disinclined to scumread ari

[Psyche]

how is it a contradiction to not care about the reads of someone i scumread.

do you care about the reads of someone who you think is mafia?

eyeroll

i do...
those reads are how i detect them and also how i build the case to get them eliminated

[Psyche]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

[Psyche]

i know ari doesn't agree with the kaytown read! too bad sry

[Psyche]

hmm RN is a problem. okay. still some distance from the light

[Psyche]

aristeia seemed to scumlean gera earlier in the game but now seems to nullread. is this an accurate characterization? if so, what changed?

why do you townread hu tao

hmm. unfortunate reply

[Psyche]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

my thinking is that unfortunately, there's really no way to get any information from the lack of an NK.
even if the NK were disrupted rather than declined, kay could still be town, as this would maximize the ambiguity of our decision today.

[Psyche]

story of the game has been me getting ahead of myself at night and then being ridiculously self-doubting through the day. such a shame.

[Psyche]

maybe you're getting at something. let me think some more

[Psyche]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

my thinking is that unfortunately, there's really no way to get any information from the lack of an NK.
even if the NK were disrupted rather than declined, kay could still be town, as this would maximize the ambiguity of our decision today.

the only way nk was disrupted would be by titus which means kay is scum

if it was declined it would be hu tao or ari.

if we are thinking kay is town then we're thinking it's between hu tao or ari.

so scenarios for N3...
titus RB succeeded and kayjayqueue NK was disrupted
titus RB failed and kayjayqueue NK was declined
hu tao declined NK
aristeia declined NK

is there any way we can discount one of these scenarios?

[Psyche]

The scenario that looks the most attractive to me for discounting is "titus RB failed and kayjayqueue NK was declined". Does anyone else agree?

[Psyche]

Add an NK among the confirmed to tonight's outcomes.
If we look from town perspective, what changes about our reads?
My thinking, carried over from yesterday, is that we probably townread kay more.
And also, one of the confirmed players is dead
so scumkay has every reason to use her kill if an NK happened

But this doesn't seem to help us. Assume titus RB succeeded. The remaining scenarios seem indistinguishable without reads:

kayjayqueue NK was disrupted
hu tao declined NK
aristeia declined NK

[Psyche]

I'm so confident Naerys flips scum this game. Eliminate me and vote her out tomorrow. I agree with this.

VOTE: hu tao

She's contradicting herself. She does this as scum. She literally I'd saying the thing she did as town last game is now scummy when I do it.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Self-voting

VOTE: Hu Tao

No idea what this means

It's explained in the wiki article. It's a common scumtell.

still don't know how people let NAS get away with this
i feel like this is another reason to just tr hutao

[Psyche]

vote count 1.04

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-03-04 01:00:00).

yeet

Hu Tao [4]:

Naerys, Klick, Aristeia, Dannflor

Psyche [2]:

Doctor Drew, geraintm

Klick [2]:

davesaz, Political Clout

Political Clout [1]:

Psyche

NotAScum [1]:

Hu Tao

not voting [3]:

Random Nurse

, NotAScum, KayJayQueue

mod notes

meep

flavour

I'm so confident Naerys flips scum this game. Eliminate me and vote her out tomorrow. I agree with this.

VOTE: hu tao

She's contradicting herself. She does this as scum. She literally I'd saying the thing she did as town last game is now scummy when I do it.

dann unvoted after this
i think i'm reasonably confident that NAS was just going for a lim here -- and not a bus

[Psyche]

also, if this vote was just distancing from his bro hutao,
then hutao would have emphasized the vote more in her various "why i am confirmed town" posts these past couple days

so hutao really is pretty much cleared for me

[Psyche]

Game is solved if Hutao can stay alive? Hutao, you're never getting limmed this game, right?

[Psyche]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

my thinking is that unfortunately, there's really no way to get any information from the lack of an NK.
even if the NK were disrupted rather than declined, kay could still be town, as this would maximize the ambiguity of our decision today.

the only way nk was disrupted would be by titus which means kay is scum

if it was declined it would be hu tao or ari.

if we are thinking kay is town then we're thinking it's between hu tao or ari.

so scenarios for N3...
titus RB succeeded and kayjayqueue NK was disrupted
titus RB failed and kayjayqueue NK was declined
hu tao declined NK
aristeia declined NK

is there any way we can discount one of these scenarios?

the claims so far that we know are

roleblocker
vig
mafia doctor
mafia bulletproof immune
ic

claims that haven't flipped are
gunsmith
informed townie

we can maybe assume the gs claim is real based on the vig and mafia doctor

we cannot be certain about the informed townie.

I don't see kjq coming up with the informed role...

Is it even real role? I've never come across something like it before

gera had this to say about it. we should look at geras game to see if this is true. if it is gera and kay don't have high scum equity together? maybe. since nas is new and so is kay. gera also true claimed his role so he might not be used to being scum.

Okay, let's assume the GS claim is real. I am game for that. It's 4 alive tomorrow. Who do we leave hutao alive with?

[Psyche]

Since you and RN both are willing to lim kay, I guess it's safest if we lim ari now after all? She wanted to be vigged anyway -- maybe we correct the mistake now?

[Psyche]

i can't look at any of their isos without wanting to start over from scratch

[Psyche]

I do wish people would listen to me like just once this game

that would be nice

well kay dies tomorrow if you're town. good enough for you?

[Psyche]

it's not a matter of listening to you. it's a matter of following through on my own hutown read.

[Psyche]

I can't really say anything about your nightplay so far other than its borderline game throwing levels of bad.

we've all made some pretty substantial mistakes this game though right? you seem to be suggesting you've had a great track record but...

[Psyche]

it's not a good use of time. im glad you feel good about your play this game

[Psyche]

I think your posting this game has been kind of abusive. Maybe it explains why no one "listens" to. Because reading your posts is like squeezing peppers into the eye. It's a drag engaging with you.

[Psyche]

like have you made one post in this thread that is not dripping with sarcasm and venom
this is a

game

. none of this stuff is that serious

[Psyche]

sorry for getting heated again. ive been posting too much. im gonna take a breather

[Psyche]

Game is solved if Hutao can stay alive? Hutao, you're never getting limmed this game, right?

RN does not Town read me. So it depends PC too

agree
it's better if we get today right then
wonder if there is any way i can refine the ari/kay sorting like i finally managed w you

[Psyche]

what's your reads list now?

Town: Random Nurse
Leaning town: Dannflor, davesaz, Hu Tao
Unsure: Political Clout, Psyche, Aristeia
Possibly scum: Titus, geraintm
Flailing: NotAScum

My leaning town and unsure lists could honestly be combined right now. Those 6 I’m trying to figure out but I need more info and more perspectives. The weird late night (for me) Ari/psyche/Hu convo was just extremely confusing and disjointed, and I’m not sure what it accomplished besides making my brain numb but it definitely didn’t make me feel like I had a great read on any of them. But I am still going to lean town on Hu right now, I don’t have any jarring reason not to.

Why am I scum??? I've done nothing scummy all game?? Tell me what I've done?
I think you have barely mentioned me this game?

Why am I scum??? I've done nothing scummy all game?? Tell me what I've done?
I think you have barely mentioned me this game?

I think this sums it up:

Checking in quickly.
Not sure of the night kill, but I ain't going to waste time speculating on the reasoning.

So you think day 1 is a waste of time, you don’t want to speculate on what happened at night…what exactly

is

worth your time then?

It’s not a lot to go on but you haven’t given much…

No, I haven't. But absence of content does not equal scum.

I don’t dispute that but I’m still going to keep you at that point in my list for now. Absence of content also doesn’t prove town in any way. So if you’re a null at best and I have better feelings about most of the others, you’re going to land near the bottom of my list.

there is a trajectory of interactions around gera starting around here that might be sorting w a little squinting

[Psyche]

impossible for me to skim a player's iso without concluding "yeah it looks town" i guess. this is hell. i am in hell.

[Psyche]

i am being melodramatic. we just need RN to be with the program and we win.

[Psyche]

we should believe titus roleblocked kay and lim kay and then ari. it's the safer play.

i don't understand why "titus stopped the kill" is more likely or safer to believe than "the kill was declined"

[Psyche]

is ok to not waste time arguing it though

[Psyche]

i sort of expected an ari self-vote in the last page, though with less back-and-forth.
but in the end it's kind of consistent with the "this sucks! this sucks!" --> "i wash my hands" patterns of other days.
each of these have been quite believable imo. but next to kay, im forced to doubt my own eyes.

[Psyche]

the reasoning that having mafia doctor/vig in the setup makes gunsmith a lot weaker is also helpful for justifying the stacked powerset

[Psyche]

on the other hand, isn't gunsmith/vig/mafia-doctor kind of swingy? seems to be easy for both our roles to almost independently throw or win the game

[Psyche]

another credit to your claim though is that you were definitely teed up to claim you had gunsmithed gera there...
wouldn't have even been in danger if he then flipped by accident

[Psyche]

another credit to your claim though is that you were definitely teed up to claim you had gunsmithed gera there...
wouldn't have even been in danger if he then flipped by accident

yeah this seems like decent reasoning too. even if hutao had flipped before gera, gera would be under no more suspicion than he weren't involved in the claim.
scumtao saying she'd targetted and cleared gera would have only held positive equity and possibly even won the game by forcing a sequence of lims over the remaining unconfirmed
there's no way scumtao doesn't notice this possibility if she's already considering a gunsmith claim
or at least bring it up at some point today/yesterday

[Psyche]

i sort of expected an ari self-vote in the last page, though with less back-and-forth.
but in the end it's kind of consistent with the "this sucks! this sucks!" --> "i wash my hands" patterns of other days.
each of these have been quite believable imo. but next to kay, im forced to doubt my own eyes.

i never self voted on any other day pls dont lie

i wash my hands of this

[Psyche]

VOTE: Ari

[Psyche]

again another distraction. we gotta focusss or just move on to next day

[Psyche]

again another distraction. we gotta focusss or just move on to next day

why is kay town? since apparently they're here but don't want to answer my question.

i simply can't find a scummy post. and she's always been performing trying to sort. voting/read trajectories seem consistent too. just a solid performance.

[Psyche]

i dont know how! id just be quoting posts where she answers questions and describes reads. im tiredddddd, may try to do a deeper dive later.
i certainly haven't found anything near-confirming like i have for hutao

[Psyche]

im going to keep arguing hutao scum is impossible
if it is possible, need answers to these questions:

why does NAS jump onto hutao when/how he does if hutao is scum?

why doesn't scum-hutao clear gera during the massclaim when gera already reads as town to any gunsmith?

would be happy for either kay or ari to try tbh

[Psyche]

it probably wasn't hutao's strategy to get bussed but i guess we can imagine NAS thinking it was a good idea

[Psyche]

why doesn't scum-hutao clear gera during the massclaim when gera already reads as town to any gunsmith?

because if hu tao says gera is clear
and kay says PC is clear

that leaves a POE of ari/titus only

that means the viable scum teams are:

ari+titus
hu tao + gera
kay + PC

with Psyche/RN conftown.

Nobody is going to lim Titus because need roleblocker.

so the next step is to lim either Hu Tao or Kay to "confirm" their investigative target.

if we lim hu tao, and hu tao flips mafia - gera dies at night game over
if we lim kay, PC becomes confirmed town, we shoot hu tao or gera at night - game over the next day

hmmm not sure if i follow your reasoning but i get the gist of a potential objection...
the poe if hutao claims gera is clear is technically the same 5 slots as before, but maybe with hutao/gera providing more information than before, maybe making a lim between them

more

likely

i guess in practice hutao planning to "clear" gera by claiming smith would do so D2 on the pretend basis of fear that she would be shot before she could claim her result
we can imagine a scenario where the idea of claiming smith doesn't occur to her until massclaim time i suppose.

in fact maybe we should ask hutao why she didn't claim her result sooner
i guess her answer will be "i crumbed my result enough in my first post D2"

[Psyche]

KJQ comes across as town trying to find out alignments, where NAS feels like performative new not real new.

this is NAS's only completed game on this site;

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=51&t=92263&user_select%5B%5D=37348

I see no indication he's not just a newbie

VOTE: NAS

these 2 posts don't make sense.

did you miss this post that happened in between them;

do you even have a case for not a scum

so notascum ended as the second biggest wagon of yesterday and was discussed at length as a potential scumread by tons of people
but aristeia, who went out of her way to push through the naeyrs wagon through against a wealth of resistance, apparently did not notice anyone post reasons for voting NAS either 1) back when anyone made these posts, or 2) while reflecting on the outcome of Day and Night 1
aristeia even bothered to spend a post examining NAS's game history before peeking at even one post someone's made this game explainaing their NAS scumread
supposing this slot is town -- which i suppose is not certain! -- the amount of wasted effort here is breathtaking

where psyche basically says im breathtakingly stupid for not recognizing NAS is mafia

i was more trying to suggest you are scum there through a reducto ab absurdum there but in any case i'd like to apologize one more time!

[Psyche]

now that you remind me i do still kind of think you purportedly not knowing of a case on NAS by that point remains somewhat suspicious

[Psyche]

if hutao is scum she definitely was planning the gist of her fakeclaim kind of early. ive gotta remember to do that next time im scum

[Psyche]

ok my hutao read is still pretty strong, but im acknowledging that it can be wrong.
this is on the level of strength as my NAS read and gera read near the end of yesterday -- uncertain but confident enough to blur the line.

[Psyche]

at least kay being scum would fulfill the rule of cool

[Psyche]

if hutao is scum she definitely was planning the gist of her fakeclaim kind of early. ive gotta remember to do that next time im scum

If I was scum I'd have to bank on the fact that town didn't have a gunsmith. Which was likely with mafia doctor and vig.

just seems wild to me that stuff like this can be asserted so confidently
either setup spec is a game breaking strategy or astrology

[Psyche]

basically i screwed up by targetting titus last night by not fully understanding the extent to which commitment to my strategy is broken by scum choosing not to kill

ari's version where i say i will shoot titus but then don't had a higher EV

[Psyche]

ari:

i think hutao's claimed role is weaker than it looks given the vig/mafia doctor thing. we can imagine a scenario where gera survives to LYLO bc she targetted him N1 for example and then died. or a scenario where I am mislimmed after she targets me.

here swing seems a bigger questionmark than power but i wonder how you're parsing this dynamic

[Psyche]

id be soo pleased w myself if my dave guess was right
but lesson learned. boring vigs are best

[Psyche]

i didnt even townread gera! i just thought shooting him was beneath me. such hubris

[Psyche]

ftr whichever of you is scum wouldve gotten a pass from me if you'd said "hutao is definitely town" here. i would have then prompted you to self-vote but yknow

[Psyche]

im not asking for a 100% townread. but how about 80%? hutao has one of those

[Psyche]

im a novice 2-shot vig by the way

i sometimes wonder what might have been possible if i'd held my shot but i guess i never imagined id still be alive today

[Psyche]

btw i thinkk you're still mistaken about how the informed role works -- or maybe i am.
my understanding is that kay's role was probably always going to clear a living town player -- at least living at the start of the night.
if kay is town.

[Psyche]

The logic deciding what information you get is apparently just unknown to anyone but the mod until endgame. I'm using the logic described in the wiki.

[Psyche]

hmmm what about no lim? i guess you'd avoid it today or tomorrow to avoid RN being the decider. RN won't force a no lim tomorrow, would probably follow PC if he's feeling uncertain.

[Psyche]

im really anchoring on that one NAS vote...

[Psyche]

turned idea in my head setup seems reasonably balanced even if both hutao and kay are PRs
with the exception that i dont like the possibility of misleading results in the gunsmith/mafdoctor scenario.
guess balancers are ok w that though -- at least in complexes

[Psyche]

I'd rather vote kay today if they flip green and clear then it's hu tao. we don't objectively gain anything if we flip aristeia.

is this based on setup logic or