Micro 1091 - Prism v. 1L Year [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

They are both confirmed mafia to me after all

[Meuh]

I'm thinking Pooky's just town, and Cakez' play around the claims actually looks fairly good here. Page 42/43 look good for them both. So maybe it's just Dunn/GL? I think you (talking to RH9) can be scum but I don't see it right now

Dunn why did you claim specifically the 1-shot aspect of your role

did you consider withholding the number of uses

I did consider doing that but valued true claiming for figuring out the setup and if other claimed roles are real.

That and I didn't want to cause problems if fake claiming led to people questioning my role, like if there were another gated protective role in the setup.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
I think there's a fair chance that's the thought process Dunn genuinely had here, but as scum
Claiming full doctor or a doctor with more than a shot would be bad if there was an actual town protective. At first I thought this discouraged GL/Dunn because GL hadn't claimed yet and Dunn has no reason to fear a scum!GL claim, but Cakez also hadn't claimed, but DID allude to being a PR

I'm even more suspicious as Luke has claimed he found yet another PR, which, two millers, another visiting PR, Luke

and my role

seems absurd. We should probably mass claim, someone in the PR claims is lying.

I'm alright with mass claiming. Luke should probably claim what they saw first to verify their role.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Like I did the math
I'm not a VT, to clarify what I've been alluding to. So if all the PR claims + Luke's track PR are legit that would make the setup

Ydrasse VT
Bell VT
Pooky Miller
Meuh Miller
Luke 2shot Tracker
Me non-VT
Whoever Luke tracked visiting someone
Scum
Scum

That doesn't look like a legit setup to me, thus why I think in the PR claims there are scum, either whoever Luke tracked or in the millers or potentially Luke himself. Like was said we can check him now with his claimed target.

Luke claims to have seen a visit -> Cakez claims non-VT, not the specific role -> Dunn insists Lukewarm should claim before everyone else -> Lukewarm does claim -> Dunn claims a low-power town role that even he himself noticed wouldn't contradict ANOTHER town protective claim (??? Why is this a thought he would even have as town, if I'm a 1-shot doc in a setup with a 2-shot tracker I'm not thinking there's another protective somewhere)
He's just scum and his play around the claims lines up entirely with what a scum player who visited last night would want to do here

VOTE: Dunnstral

The entire argument here revolves around Cakez being town

Town does not have the thought of "millers are mislimmable on day 1 here"

GL is scum

playing against 2 town millers he didn't feel like he could mislim
I think

this perspective kinda unpairs Cakez/GL

since wasn't Cakez one of the people who was sticking to not limming a miller day 1? His perspective (as town) would affect GL's view of a miller mislim (as scum)

Oh wow, Cakez town!

It's Dunn/Cakez (probably Dunn) with GL/RH9 (probably GL)
Unless Pooky is faking a town perspective very well or we're actually in a weird scum!Luke world and Dunn/Cakez are both town
I feel like Dunn/Pooky is feasible? But not the most likely world. Pooky/Cakez doesn't feel like a scum pair
Pooky with a VT claim I feel is generally questionable in terms of mechs? and neither a Pooky/GL or Pooky/RH9 team looks right to me, but I can't say I've thought of it thoroughly

Oh wow!!!! I see Cakez scum as very unlikely!!

Town does not have the thought of "millers are mislimmable on day 1 here"
GL is scum playing against 2 town millers he didn't feel like he could mislim
I think this perspective kinda unpairs Cakez/GL since wasn't Cakez one of the people who was sticking to not limming a miller day 1? His perspective (as town) would affect GL's view of a miller mislim (as scum)

I don't understand this post

Dunn asked what is wrong with a micro with 3 PRs + 2 millers, so I explained why there can't be 3 PRs + 2 millers

"scum perspective" is required to explain why a theoretical set up is unbalanced for scum

I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs

there literally has to be scum in the PRs

especially if you are town

@Luke am I crazy? why does it feel like I'm the only person saying both Cakez and Dunn cannot be town

I guess Meuh also said the same thing but called me scum for saying it

My point was more specifically regarding millers not being mislimmable on day 1.
The way that clashed with my own (and others') view of the game and the way that I think scum would be more likely to believe it was my issue
The rest of your post was fine
But yeah this setup does not work if all the claims are real, there's scum in Dunn/Cakez here,

though probably not both

. (2-shot tracker + 2 millers is feasible I guess? But not super likely in my eyes)

(This emphasizes that Dunn scum means Cakez town)

One thing that sticks out in Cakez' favour here is that he was already implying being a PR that didn't visit last night before Dunn had claimed
As scum, he had no need to commit to claiming PR this early and could've waited to choose when his turn came to claim, but he was already directing himself towards that before even knowing who Luke had visited and this person's role. If scum Cakez softs PR and then Dunn claims something like full doc, he's forced to retract his soft or to claim a weak PR, and neither looks good.
This contrasts with Dunn who was forced into a position where he had to claim PR and then did so, self-admittedly being scared of another PR claiming and looking bad because of it. Cakez has backed down on this so it's less significant, but pushing the idea of scum existing in the PRs while deciding to soft PR himself as scum is pretty risky
imo Dunn handled the PR situation in the safest, most textbook way, while Cakez did it in a weird, risky way that doesn't seem like how scum would want to approach it

Wow, defending Cakez a bunch!!

Dunn > GL > Pooky > RH9 > Cakez > Lukewarm
My lim preference at the moment

Wow, I don't want Cakez to be limmed!!!!

Spoiler: Dunn/RH9 slot

shaping view of game around assuming millers are town seems ? to me

miller claims in current site meta are town at a rate well above random (not even counting the very silly normal Dunnstral just linked) and reading into the personality of the players claiming and determining they aren't lying is pretty basic, it's not dissimilar to evaluating most other claims really. It's just based on whether you think the person is likely to be lying or not.

That being said the logic I used for it is trivial to fake as scum and I would probably play around the claims exactly the same way as scum, because it's easy to make that sort of logical point. Dunn townreading me there for it was puzzling but sometimes town make weird reads so I'm not going to do anything about it.

I don't think that will be very helpful for me so would feel guilty making you put in substantial effort to do so. If somebody else thinks this would be useful they can jump in.

I don't think it will be helpful because I don't put a lot of weight into saying you would do things differently when we are this early into the game, and you are the one describing things and there is bias there. I think that mafia fake claiming millers is unlikely, and despite what catboi says I do think a track record of not fake claiming miller makes it more likely to not be fake in this game as well. And meuh was the one who counter claimed so they took an active role and I agree with the thought that mafia are less likely to do so, especially when somebody else is already claiming that role. So that makes me think the millers are town, and

your reaction to them reminded me of when I played the mini normal recently and the mafia made a similar argument against the miller claims

.

And I also am reading catboi and bell as town, so that has me looking at Elle (1L), Ydrasse, SirCakez, and GuiltyLion. And you Elle (1L) are the one who has given the most content to discuss. I am not disregarding the 4 people I am townreading for the rest of the game, I do think it is a good place to start though.

Thought push on elle was maybe a little unfair but I like the bolded line, fakeable but it's a decent thought.

I acknowledge 287 as being correct on some level about the word choices Meuh seeming scummy, I'm just...not sure it actually comes from scum. It's a

plausible

read from Ydrasse, at any rate.

I think 294 from Cakez is a very generic sounding read that does nothing for me, but I think he comes off okay in his tiff with Ydrasse, and I'd even lean town on it? Just my feeling that the passion is real rather than a show being put on by mafia. Could be wrong, but I don't really feel like he's a good vote on Day 1 because he tends to get mis-elimmed as town a lot.

Would Ydrasse, as mafia, feel the need to push SirCakez early on, rather than building up connections?

It's not impossible

if

she felt threatened by cakez scumreading her and felt the need to push back on an accuser before she became a wagon - part of why I squinted at her accusing the game of shifting momentum toward her was that it felt like it could be an unconscious guilt thing - when you're scum you tend to perceive your actions as ore suspicious than they are and get worried that people are going to start pushing you and it felt like an exaggeration of reality.

Or she could just be a paranoid townie. I'm hardly committed to my current vote.

(also 314 got a laugh out of me)

I don't really have a read on elle but I'm not opposed to voting her. I don't have thoughts on Dunn having a read on me because I have almost no success reading people off how they read me. I don't think it's impossible for a townie to see someone reading the game the same way as them and call it town even if it was fast, but in terms of his other content it's been unobjectionable but doesn't scream town to me.

like gls thoughts on catboi exactly mirror my own. so they make sense to me. i just dont bother to question dflors townread cuz i think its tactically bad.

I do not think that it is unreasonable to not be swayed by Dunn's reasons. I wasn't. I still don't have a read on catboi.

It also did not bother me that he asked Dunn to explain the read, that is also reasonable. My issue was where GL went after that.

It did not read to me, like GL was trying to divine if Dunn's read was a plausibly genuine read or not, and therefore whether having that read was scummy or not. At least, I did not see anything about that coming from GL's posts following Dunn's explanation.

Instead, it seemed like he pivoted into trying to convince Dunn not to have that read. And he was not even arguing that Cartboi is scum. Just that Dunn should not have a town read because it is

possible

for scum to replicate it.

I don't see why a townie would actually care if Dunn has a day 1 town read on Catboi, especially one Dunn openly said he is not married to

Spoiler:

I am not disregarding the 4 people I am townreading for the rest of the game, I do think it is a good place to start though.

But there is scum motivation to stop people from forming too many town reads.

Maybe I am ascribing too much to the unsaid, but I thought it was pretty plausible that GL's questioning of Dunn was for exactly the reason of figuring out if it was genuine or not.

hm, okay

having a tracker in a setup with (potential) millers is kind of comedic if it's true, but I don't feel like eliminating a PR claim on Day 1. Still feels like there's probably a scum between Luke and GL but it's not something that needs immediate resolution in my opinion.

VOTE: Dunn

I guess I land here: not really strongly townread by anyone but also not getting pressured.

VOTE: Dunn

I guess I land here: not really strongly townread by anyone but also not getting pressured.

That does not mean I am mafia.

True it doesn't but I don't townread you. If I'm wrong on you then either I'm wrong on cakez (entirely possible but I'm personally not going to vote him Day 1), or someone else is getting misread by people.

I think that I am convincing myself that GL is town, and that catboi is positioning to eliminate him after killing me for being a tracker.

Both because he linked the two of us together in a way that seems disingenuous, but also in the same post of doing that just side stepped eliminating inside the pair entirely for the day.

Especially when reading 502, and his pivot into Dunn feels toothless, like it was just The Best Option Left. Not like he even thought his thoughts on Dunn were Good.

I literally just said we shouldn't vote you Day 1 so I don't know where you're getting the idea I'm trying to eliminate you. I would only push to eliminate you if you weren't NKed and after a mass claim your claim was one we decided didn't really fit in the setup. You're right I'm trying to eliminate outside you two, but I don't think you're ever scum together, so there's almost certainly a scum outside you. In the event I'm wrong on there being a scum between you two then voting outside you is even more beneficial to the town for obvious reasons.

I don't know where you'd get the idea I'd be able to effortlessly chain-elim GL and then you or why you think I'd lay my roadmap for a path to victory out in the thread Day 1, that's totally unnecessary as scum when I can just go 1 step at a time.

I would agree with your assessment that I'm not being exceptionally forceful with my vote on Dunn. Why should I be? I have no particular reason to believe my reads are highly accurate, and when I try to force a case too much it ends up being wrong. If I really wanted to I could bullshit a case in 45 minutes on how Dunn is obvious scum and needs to die today but it wouldn't mean I believed it or that it's more likely to be right. Why do I have to have a scumread I feel confident about on Day 1?

ughhh i butchered the quote blocks i'm sorry, EBWOP for readability

---

I literally just said we shouldn't vote you Day 1 so I don't know where you're getting the idea I'm trying to eliminate you. I would only push to eliminate you if you weren't NKed
-
I don't know where you'd get the idea I'd be able to effortlessly chain-elim GL and then you

I was not saying that I felt like you were trying to eliminate me. I specifically meant night kill me, and then use my town flip to elim GL.

Lmao

I mean, I get it, but that's still very silly.

Why do I have to have a scumread I feel confident about on Day 1?

My issue is that you seemed more confident in there being scum between me and GL, yet chose Dunn.

Your stated position is that you GL is one of the lower people in your reads, and that his flip would give you insight into me, so that seems like the direction that would be more natural.

But you didn't go that direction. Instead, you voted you weaker read, and punted the Luke/GL pair down the road.

I have other means of getting insight into you besides voting out GL. I felt at the time you were more likely to be scum than him so I wasn't keen on voting him out. (But maybe I'm wrong on you!). If push came to shove I might vote him, but as I've said, if there's a scum outside you two it makes perfect sense to me to try to find that scum first. If I vote one of you out and it's wrong that's bad, if I'm wrong on both of you it's probably a game-loing read. So to me it doesn't hurt to vote outside. Night actions/claims will potentially help clear you up, if we manage to flip scum outside you then we can see if that scum makes sense as a teammate with either of you.

I wouldn't say I was more confident on GL being scum, that doesn't accurately reflect my position. My read on Dunn isn't very strong, it's just the best I have currently.

I find catboi's take on Luke's interactions with the tvt thing surprisingly persuasive. I'm kind of wondering about how they're addressing push back though. They respond differently to pressure than I do though.

Don't know what you mean in particular by this.As far as my response goes, I'm trying to be more communicative for the most part. I think Luke's pushback on me is extremely goofy but it's not setting off the same "absolute bullshit" flags the last two times I saw him as scum. I'm bad at reading people who scumread me though, as I've stated. I can't tell if they're being reasonable or not because I'm biased on knowing my alignment. I usually just reflexively OMGUS if they're being annoying enough.

Dunn is obvious scum

I believe in my cat

LMAO you're evil for this one

{pooky, bell, meuh}
{cakez}
{Luke, GL}
{Dunn, Ydrasse}

I think that I am convincing myself that GL is town, and that catboi is positioning to eliminate him after killing me for being a tracker.

Both because he linked the two of us together in a way that seems disingenuous, but also in the same post of doing that just side stepped eliminating inside the pair entirely for the day.

Especially when reading 502, and his pivot into Dunn feels toothless, like it was just The Best Option Left. Not like he even thought his thoughts on Dunn were Good.

Luke, I want to revisit this. You're scumreading me here because my vote is "toothless", because I lack passion behind it.

Now, GL gets a pass for this because he doesn't know my scumgame and is making the common fallacy that me lacking energy is a scumtell. But you - you've seen my scumgame. Do you think I, at any time as scum, come across as dispassionate? As lacking the will to put conviction behind a push?

Dunn, I will move on you if you don’t suggest a better alternative in a better way.

I say as if power is something I have over anyone.

I think GL accusing Cakez of chainsawing me is moving into "hard to fathom as being the real belief of a town player" territory. It's enough in the territory that I would be okay with voting him today, because his arguments have gotten continually worse, and look more like he's trying to "score points" with every attack rather than attempting to discern a perspective or actually investigate alignments. (I think even if he's town the way he's playing right is outright anti-town, not because he's reading me wrong but because of him tunneling in a single-minded fashion where everything someone does only adds further fuel to the fire. I think if allowed to live he will harm the town regardless of his alignment. That's simply how I've come to view this type of play. I've been guilty of it many times in the past (no pun intended), and part of the reason I've been playing restrained this game is to try to curb that tendency. I think he absolutely should not be allowed leadership/agency in this game).

Luke is simply mad I dared to suspect him. He is probably town and gets resolved mechanically either way. I wish he would not play so emotionally, but at his core he's still the same newbie I flew off the handle at for deathtunneling me a couple years ago.

I think Ydrasse's contributions to the game have overall been minimal to non-existant. Her main reads have been to defend elle for getting flustered, and OMGUSing Cakez. The elle read is not really logical because scum get flustered all the time, and instead comes across as white-knighting a player who was an early push. The Cakez read is entirely reactive and can easily be scum motivated. Beyond that, she shaded me for suggesting I'd be okay voting elle, and then shaded luke for calling her town. This is all play that is merely reacting to major events going on in the thread and responding to them, it takes very little effort. It doesn't feel investigative, like she's actually parsing the game and trying to figure anything out - rather she's simply commenting on big things or things that mention her. I think she is actively procrastinating on contributing to the thread and this is more likely to come from scum who is struggling to manufacture content.

I think the reasons that have been given for her being town are not very good. Guiltylion is suggesting her feeling concerned about the thread vibes being against her is a towntell. I think this is not convincing because it's ultimately a "vibe-based" read that is related t attitude, and that thing can be faked, or maybe she was just legitimately feeling threatened. Dunn says she is more charismatic as mafia early - again, this is a vibe-based read that is really not convincing. Luke is town reading her because she made a joke on page 1 and because she is defending his slot. I think this is obviously terrible reasoning n face value. Early game gutreads are not very likely to be accurate, and townreading someone simply for defending you means you are highly likely to fall into a pocket. Scum defend players who otherwise look to be uncontested wagons all the time. I think he is biased because he disliked being run up so quickly upon entering the game (which to be fair is an entirely understandable response), and so has latched on to anyone he saw as being protective of him.

That's my reasoning for Ydrasse being scum, it could be wrong, I don't think my read accuracy is particularly special. I would still prefer to flip her or GL if I'm voted out today.

---

It's very hard for me to explain how I'm reading pooky but I simply get the feel he is being genuine every time he posts, the way he spoke about me felt unrestrained and like it was coming from a town perspective. Similarly, Bell getting irritated with Cakez for the E-1 thing felt real and he keeps making his contributions that are slightly snarky but insightful. I buy what he's doing as town motivated

Meuh slightly less confident on but nothing she's posted has felt like t was not from a genuine perspective to me, and I still lean on the miller claim as being +town.

Dunn I had more as potential scum for POE reasons and some fear he may have been buddying me, but historically I'm not great at reading him. I thought there was simply a chance he was being overlooked.

As for Cakez, I wish I had an answer for why he felt like voting me before writing this post but I still felt like the response he had to pressure was towny in terms of how he was seemingly challenging people about voting him. I am also historically not great at reading him so my confidence level is not high, but that is the best I can manage. I think if Ydrasse flips mafia he is basically always town and should be treated as an innocent child.

catboi you have paragraphs for why you suspect other people which I read and seems pretty convincing to me. Except for the part where you say we should eliminate "regardless of alignment" - that part I am not a fan of. And then you have sentences for me, saying poe, which doesn't even make sense if you have two other, better scumreads, and then "overlooked" which is based on what other people are doing.

I guess, yeah. I realize the justification for that read isn't great but I was basically spilling out as stream of consciousness, and that was all that came to mind. Maybe that means I should reconsider you, but I don't have a lot of things I can really point to that says anything about your alignment. I often don't really know how to read you and I don't think you've done anything obviously towny to me this game - which doesn't make you scum necessarily, I just can't really clear you.

As for the "regardless of alignment" thing - it's partly salty on my part, no way around it, but it's also a theory I have. I think when a town player is really overconfident and trying to aggressively steer the game, they're usually wrong and usually harmful. On self-reflection, that's where all my worst moments come from. I've witnessed other players run games into the ground by being ego-driven and steamrolling everyone who opposed them. I think GL is tipping close to that in terms of how he's handling me. (Luke also does this but like I can't really suggest policy killing him because I think he's probably town)

To be clear though I think this is an entirely viable model for scumplay and if GL as scum felt I was getting too threatening I could see him taking advantage of Luke here given he'd already laid he groundwork for pushing me.

Dunn can be town because he seems to earnestly care about convincing me I'm wrong on him when there's a chance I get voted out today, and I think if he's mafia he wouldn't care as much about trying to persuade me.

This is an experimental read I just made up, but I like the logic behind it.

after literally just playing against me as mafia feel like he should be more aware that this isnt my mafia game and also p sure he made a post earlier where hes like "when do i not have passion as a wolf" or something and like i can think of multiple times before where hes in fact been "down" or lower energy in games when it was beneficial so it's a nonpoint.

catboi, what do you think of this? Do you think it is a fair assessment?

The latter part is plausibly true but it was a game where I was struggling to keep up with a bunch of hyperposters and was AtE'ing to survive, which isn't really true in comparison to this.

I don't think her posting is meaningfully different from what I've seen of her scumgame, but like I'm not that good at this game so I could easily be wrong

If scum succeed at pushing me out today (which I now think probably happens because I underestimated how fickle certain people are), you two have to take charge of the game because it's a shitshow and I don't think anyone else knows how to find mafia

oh and work with dunn I guess - I'm still cautious about it but I think my last read on him makes sense and he knows how to cooperate

catboi you have 2 votes on you, you're not about to be eliminated

Both Luke and ydrasse are clearly willing to vote for me, cakez was toying with the possibility of voting me for ???reasons???. It's not hard to read the room and see there's support for eliminating me becaus I've pissed off half the game. I think you're the only one actually townreading me.

(If I squint and tilt my head, cakez so readily accepting the possibility of voting me when it became viable looks opportunistic. Maybe Bell is right there and I'm wrong, he has good instincts a lot of the time, I really don't know. You should probably trust someone else's judgment over mine).

I just...lack the will or the enthusiasm to fight off a wagon on me. I probably could do it but I'd have to get really mean to make it happen and I'm trying not to play that way. I don't think I'm so valuable to the town that I have to stay alive at all costs, I'm just a VT and I don't think my reads are anything special. Also when people tunnel me it more or less completely removes any chance I have of getting good reads, because I can't figure out if people pushing me are scum or just tunneled.

I see Luke replied to me but honestly I'm on the verge of passing out, I just wanted to address this before I went to sleep. hope this is reasonably coherent.

Preliminary reads based off what I've read so far:
Meuh — Probably town for claim; I don't think she would fakeclaim something like that
Pooky — Probably also town for claim
Dunn — I like their analysis, so maybe town
Luke — Null; I thought his predecessor was nullish and I haven't really caught up to when he starts posting
Bell — Null; Seems pretty chill, not sure what to make of it as I tend to associate town!Bell with being somewhat aggressive
GL — I've liked his early posts, so maybe nulltown?
Ydra — I feel like from her interactions with Cakez, they feel unaligned
Cakez — I tend to SR him because he usually feels scummy to me; I'm going to try to avoid confbiasing myself this time

Reading Luke's posts, I feel like his argument with catboi over the Dunn vote actually feel kinda towny. In that, it feels like he has genuine concern over catboi's motivations. And his 651 and 652 feel like he's trying to be nuanced, which doesn't really seem like something scum would do? Especially, since he could've take advantage of the increasing pressure.
But I'm leaning towards moving Luke up to my TRs.

i wasnt claiming venge and i think all of this like. stuff about it feels like wolves trying to react to something that literally isn't there
i'm vt
my flavor's catboi. this is why it was funnier before. i also did not want to claim because it's pretty easy now to narrow down what's left

I think this makes sense.

I don't think it makes them any more likely to be town though

True.
It's just that I thought Ydra's earlier statements made sense with the flavour claim.

I'm alright with mass claiming. Luke should probably claim what they saw first to verify their role.

This is a good idea.

I'm alright with mass claiming. Luke should probably claim what they saw first to verify their role.

i think luke should claim last in case he catches someone in a lie

Oh, maybe I should have fully read before I responded lol

At least, Dunn is confirmed to be a PR now.

TBH after Dunn claims, we should get Cakez to claim what PR he exactly is.

P-edit: TBH Beholder is a rare enough role that if Dunn actually is it, I'm going to question if it's a trueclaim.

I'm a 1-shot doctor

Flavor is Student Life's Mental Wellness Dogs

I targeted Lukewarm last night

That checks out, I guess?

I'm in co-op Baldur's gate, hence my terseness

I thought it strange that RH9 went straight to Beholder before I could claim my role

Cakez (I think?) was asking for plausible scum roles that would target Doc.
Beholder was one of them.

I do think 1073 is a weird perspective to have if you are a VT. I get that you will say that it slipped your mind but how?

I said 2 VTs as a reaction test to see if scum would take the bait and treat it as a slip, which seemed to have happened.
I feel like it might've gotten a bit out of hand, though.

One of my initial thoughts was that scum could have neapolitan, and that a miller would mess with their results rather than cop results, but that seems kinda silly? With no cop claim, I'm inclined to think they're just named townies at this point? No clue if this lines up with what Prism would do as a mod though

So, it'd figure one of Dunn/Cakez/GL isn't telling the truth, then?
Because Luke had no way of faking a result on Dunn, given he claimed first.

also his approach is not as townie as the other two

As in after the massclaim?
Because, you could be right on this.
The way Cakez has interacted with claims does feel townier than Dunn's.
(Though, I could biased in that I feel like if all PR claims are town, that means Mafia's basically hoping Luke wastes his last track on the PR claims. And that'd have to mean scum are doing pretty well at not getting any attention.)

I agree Luke's claim has to be town at this point because there's not enough town power otherwise

I'm thinking either

1) Cakez just trueclaimed his role as a scum RB
or
2) Dunn is some kind of scum investigative that targeted Luke

what's extra wonk is that neither Cakez nor Dunn see any issue with eachother's claims

I think at least to Dunn's credit he is just coming off kind of obtuse whereas Cakez pivoted from "scum in the PRs" to just immediately accepting Dunn's claim - feels like he may be strategically positioning and not wanting to make an enemy out of Dunn

This is a good point.
Dunn has been consistently been saying 'PRs are Town' (for reasons which I still don't agree with) but Cakez has only really been 'scum in RH9/GL' but he went from 'scum in Meuh/Dunn/Luke' to 'scum prob just Meuh' (given he seems to be TRing Pooky).
Eh. Maybe this really is a scum!Cakez world, after all.
Though, if Cakez is scum, then I'm stuck on who's his partner other than maybe the Miller claims.

I think rn I'm at one of Cakez/GL is scum along with one of the Millers.
P-edit: Maybe it could be GL/Dunn.

Eh.
Now I think about it, Cakez only makes sense as scum with Pooky.

And I don't think Pooky is scum.

At least, Pooky has came across as genuinely concerned town quite a bit.

I think the only way I live to tomorrow (to bring my second result) is if dunn is town, and 2-shot, and lied about being 1 shot in order to bait the kill into me.

Which is honestly the smart way for him to play being 2 shot.

And kind of smarter then a 1-shot dunn true claiming being 1-shot. (Actually 1-shot dunn should have claimed x-shot).

And dunn should probably not react to this post either.

I don't think Dunn is a gambity sort of player?
I might be wrong but the way Dunn's been playing makes me think it's unlikely he's 2-shot.
At best, we can hope Cakez is town and has not yet used his rb.

If you think that then it's weird that you are suspecting me after I got tracked to Lukewarm

I think you trueclaimed.
Your play makes only real sense if you really were 1-shot.

I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs

I guess this is OK with me.

what do you mean you guess? the alternative is you lol

Because there's still wagons on you/Dunn?
And chances are it's going to be between me/you/GL.

Dunn, don't you see?

He thinks you could be a true claiming, scum-aligned, 1-shot doctor (in a game with no Vigilante) who used their 1 shot to protect the town tracker.

That is not what I've been saying.
I'm saying that Dunn is probably trueclaiming the 1-shot aspect if he is really a town doc.

If you think that then it's weird that you are suspecting me after I got tracked to Lukewarm

I think you trueclaimed.
Your play makes only real sense if you really were 1-shot.

I can't tell if you are calling me town here, but if you are I feel like you were speculating that I may have been mafia earlier

Well. I felt like you could be scum, due to the fact that Cakez barely makes sense as scum with half of everybody but like you and Pooky.
And Pooky hasn't felt like scum to me, so reasonably this limits scum to you/GL/Cakez/Meuh.
However, I have been thinking that Cakez can actually be Town and I've been mindmelding with Meuh, leaving the scumpool to you/GL.
On the other hand, your play if town, makes more sense coming from a world where you trueclaimed than one where you're playing elaborate mindgames like Luke has been suggesting.

I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs

I guess this is OK with me.

what do you mean you guess? the alternative is you lol

Because there's still wagons on you/Dunn?
And chances are it's going to be between me/you/GL.

OK.
Maybe this is going to end up with what you've been saying.

To expand on my point in 1266, it is weird to me that RH9 has an impression of me that I don't gambit, but does not seem to be considering that when thinking I could be mafia. I think that if RH9 is being truthful, they should look at Luke's track result on me and conclude that I am more likely town than not, because to them I would have to be gambitting to be mafia.

Now that I am thinking about this, they also very quickly jumped to saying I might fake claim beholder at the start of the day. Doesn't this also contradict their thinking here, since that would be a gambit?

I

did not

suggest you fakeclaim Beholder.
Stop reframing the narrative.
I suggested Beholder is a

plausible scum role

you could have and

target Luke with

.
And anyways scum claiming doctor when tracked to the tracker is not gambity at all.
It's just what scum would do, since it's the most believable claim.

I wanna delve into this more at some point but reading through these interactions, I think this is a very plausible team here tbh
Catboi does scumread and vote Dunn early on but then throws out an "experimental read" on Dunn being town that he sticks to, and he has no problem shifting to Ydra instead
RH9 starts with a soft townread on Dunn, then shifts to questioning him more when the thread leans that way (notably with Pooky saying he was the most likely PR to be lying and me pushing Dunn), but is also willing to consider Cakez actually being scum instead when GL brings it up. Issue is that a lot of RH9's reads were influenced by the whims of the thread, so I don't really think his shifts here look super bad in terms of being paired with Dunn (though it definitely doesn't unpair them)

RH9 slot/Cakez doesn't really make sense to me either, Cakez' interactions with both Catboi and RH9 don't look paired at all to me

and I'm doubtful on GL/RH9 or Pooky/RH9 for mech reasons (although the latter is a bit more feasible)
Maybe that's just it

I think Cakez looks unpaired with RH9!!!

Spoiler:

Your annoyance at cakez and his vote was the thing that scared me a little bit on him because I can see him doing the overtly scummy thing as scum b/c he just doesn't care. However I've committed myself to shielding him for today, even if it makes me look foolish.

Also I think ydrasse is significantly scummier than cakez and I don't think they're ever a team so I'd want to flip her before him always. But that's just my opinion.

catboi I want to say is town but I'm worried he may be trying to pocket me so idk. Wouldn't vote rn but definitely not safe town

look i'm just trying to save you from being misyeeted for once in your career

ok well I appreciate you if you're town here <3
but if you're scum

I think GL accusing Cakez of chainsawing me is moving into "hard to fathom as being the real belief of a town player" territory. It's enough in the territory that I would be okay with voting him today, because his arguments have gotten continually worse, and look more like he's trying to "score points" with every attack rather than attempting to discern a perspective or actually investigate alignments. (I think even if he's town the way he's playing right is outright anti-town, not because he's reading me wrong but because of him tunneling in a single-minded fashion where everything someone does only adds further fuel to the fire. I think if allowed to live he will harm the town regardless of his alignment. That's simply how I've come to view this type of play. I've been guilty of it many times in the past (no pun intended), and part of the reason I've been playing restrained this game is to try to curb that tendency. I think he absolutely should not be allowed leadership/agency in this game).

Luke is simply mad I dared to suspect him. He is probably town and gets resolved mechanically either way. I wish he would not play so emotionally, but at his core he's still the same newbie I flew off the handle at for deathtunneling me a couple years ago.

I think Ydrasse's contributions to the game have overall been minimal to non-existant. Her main reads have been to defend elle for getting flustered, and OMGUSing Cakez. The elle read is not really logical because scum get flustered all the time, and instead comes across as white-knighting a player who was an early push. The Cakez read is entirely reactive and can easily be scum motivated. Beyond that, she shaded me for suggesting I'd be okay voting elle, and then shaded luke for calling her town. This is all play that is merely reacting to major events going on in the thread and responding to them, it takes very little effort. It doesn't feel investigative, like she's actually parsing the game and trying to figure anything out - rather she's simply commenting on big things or things that mention her. I think she is actively procrastinating on contributing to the thread and this is more likely to come from scum who is struggling to manufacture content.

I think the reasons that have been given for her being town are not very good. Guiltylion is suggesting her feeling concerned about the thread vibes being against her is a towntell. I think this is not convincing because it's ultimately a "vibe-based" read that is related t attitude, and that thing can be faked, or maybe she was just legitimately feeling threatened. Dunn says she is more charismatic as mafia early - again, this is a vibe-based read that is really not convincing. Luke is town reading her because she made a joke on page 1 and because she is defending his slot. I think this is obviously terrible reasoning n face value. Early game gutreads are not very likely to be accurate, and townreading someone simply for defending you means you are highly likely to fall into a pocket. Scum defend players who otherwise look to be uncontested wagons all the time. I think he is biased because he disliked being run up so quickly upon entering the game (which to be fair is an entirely understandable response), and so has latched on to anyone he saw as being protective of him.

That's my reasoning for Ydrasse being scum, it could be wrong, I don't think my read accuracy is particularly special. I would still prefer to flip her or GL if I'm voted out today.

---

It's very hard for me to explain how I'm reading pooky but I simply get the feel he is being genuine every time he posts, the way he spoke about me felt unrestrained and like it was coming from a town perspective. Similarly, Bell getting irritated with Cakez for the E-1 thing felt real and he keeps making his contributions that are slightly snarky but insightful. I buy what he's doing as town motivated

Meuh slightly less confident on but nothing she's posted has felt like t was not from a genuine perspective to me, and I still lean on the miller claim as being +town.

Dunn I had more as potential scum for POE reasons and some fear he may have been buddying me, but historically I'm not great at reading him. I thought there was simply a chance he was being overlooked.

As for Cakez, I wish I had an answer for why he felt like voting me before writing this post but I still felt like the response he had to pressure was towny in terms of how he was seemingly challenging people about voting him. I am also historically not great at reading him so my confidence level is not high, but that is the best I can manage. I think if Ydrasse flips mafia he is basically always town and should be treated as an innocent child.

I guess as a pure spitball guess GL/Cakez isn't impossible, at least off the top of my head

catboi the reason I was/am considering voting you is because your reaction to the recent pressure on you has felt off tonally, it feels like way more concerned with the votes then I feel like you'd normally respond as town. I mean just look at the last two pages - I feel like that claim was really dramatic and unprompted and it doesn't feel organic.

As for me "not actively trying to sort you" - you weren't here, dude. What are you expecting me to do when you're not posting in the game? Why do you think I didn't just vote you? I mean, probably because I'm still trying to sort you?

Now, GL gets a pass for this because he doesn't know my scumgame and is making the common fallacy that me lacking energy is a scumtell. But you - you've seen my scumgame. Do you think I, at any time as scum, come across as dispassionate? As lacking the will to put conviction behind a push?

like these are just gut feels really but this kinda felt like scum indignance at being pushed for something he thinks is NAI

Not primarily real time, more of a "wait and see" player. You were absent for a day and the most relevant stuff was seeing how you would respond to luke and what you'd do after that. I certainly don't feel like me voting you would have helped anything and I had nothing in particular I wanted to ask you.

I dunno, you're free to choose to not believe me if you want. I'm not that worried because I don't think I'll actually go over today. If you actually want to figure out if my read is genuine, ask me questions about it?

here's another example, this is one of those vibes where i can't really describe it that well, but like stuff like "you're free to choose not to believe me if you want" feels like such a weird thing to say from a catboi town PoV where he has indicated some suspicion of GL already

EBWOP - had one quote twice

but this is tough because I don't think catboi/GL make any sense as scum together and I also find things independently scummy from GL

but this is tough because I don't think catboi/GL make any sense as scum together and I also find things independently scummy from GL

How is that tough? Just kill the one you suspect more of being scum individually.

its tough because i find them independently scummy but them not being SvS means even if I'm right there's still another scum out there and I just keep going through the playerlist and being like who tf is scum this game

we have:
pooky and meuh the miller claims
luke who claimed pr
ydra who im really stuck with and keep going back and forth on
dunn who I think is playing like town here
and then you and honestly I don't know what to think about you this game Bell but I wouldn't vote you today

catboi the reason I was/am considering voting you is because your reaction to the recent pressure on you has felt off tonally, it feels like way more concerned with the votes then I feel like you'd normally respond as town. I mean just look at the last two pages - I feel like that claim was really dramatic and unprompted and it doesn't feel organic.

this is very par for the course

viewtopic.php?t=88098
viewtopic.php?t=87197
viewtopic.php?t=89595

Preliminary reads based off what I've read so far:
Meuh — Probably town for claim; I don't think she would fakeclaim something like that
Pooky — Probably also town for claim
Dunn — I like their analysis, so maybe town
Luke — Null; I thought his predecessor was nullish and I haven't really caught up to when he starts posting
Bell — Null; Seems pretty chill, not sure what to make of it as I tend to associate town!Bell with being somewhat aggressive
GL — I've liked his early posts, so maybe nulltown?
Ydra — I feel like from her interactions with Cakez, they feel unaligned
Cakez — I tend to SR him because he usually feels scummy to me; I'm going to try to avoid confbiasing myself this time

Does GL/Ydra make sense?? Is that a thing?

Well, I guess

if

Bell is town, that could be possible. And unless I've just been bamboozled and you/Ydra actually is a possible team, then it's likely either you/GL or Ydra/GL.
However, I had liked GL's early game, so I'm still uncertain rn between him and Bell. (I've felt that Bell has been appearing progressively towny in their ISO.)

Unhelpfully, I think I just tend to lean into TRing GL's posting style, so I probably won't vote for him today.
I'll reaccess Cakez/Ydra, just in case.

Unhelpfully, I think I just tend to lean into TRing GL's posting style, so I probably won't vote for him today.
I'll reaccess Cakez/Ydra, just in case.

As in Cakez/Ydra as a team, in case my preliminary read on them being unaligned was wrong.

TBH, what Luke said about Cakez being opportunistic was similar to something I had contemplated last night.
I'm just unsure if it's because he was trying to look out for an easy mislim or he genuinely SRed catboi and was willing to compromise on a non-GL wagon.

The thing is though, Cakez didn't really seem to express an SR on catboi until a wagon was becoming viable.

Maybe, I'm overthinking this but I would probably go for Cakez over Ydra rn.

You know what, maybe I should put my vote where my mouth is.
VOTE: Cakez

The thing is though, Cakez didn't really seem to express an SR on catboi until a wagon was becoming viable.

well obviously because catboi didn't become scummy until a wagon formed on him

actually no Bell is on me ofc lol so E-1

I thought you were on E-2?
Bell's voting Ydra, I'm pretty sure.

Though, Ydra was interested in voting you.

actually no Bell is on me ofc lol so E-1

I thought you were on E-2?
Bell's voting Ydra, I'm pretty sure.

oh, i didn't see the shift

Though, Ydra was interested in voting you.

yeah this is the dilemma catboi ended up in where he only had two votes I think but enough people were like "i'd vote him" that he felt a lot more pressure than that. or so he claimed at least.

yeah this is the dilemma catboi ended up in where he only had two votes I think but enough people were like "i'd vote him" that he felt a lot more pressure than that. or so he claimed at least.

I guess this is true.

sircakez and i being the two main wagons both on gl is very funny

That's the thing that's making me question if scum!you would rather choose to go for GL, who's unlikely to get limmed over putting Cakez on E-1 to save yourself.

VOTE: meuh
I don't think there are two millers this game. Stuff isn't adding up.

VOTE: Cakez
I don't like how he immediately went for Meuh.

Why do people object to my Meuh vote

Basically what Meuh has said.
Especially when you seemed perfectly fine with Meuh until today.
Like what happened to your read on GL?

Has anyone mentioned the mysterious disappearance of Cakez' GL scumread?

I've brought it up.

BTW, what do you make of Cakez's claim that he's a PR?

TBH after Dunn claims, we should get Cakez to claim what PR he exactly is.

VOTE: rh9
our work here is done

Cakez, do you still think Meuh is scum?

I'm in co-op Baldur's gate, hence my terseness

I thought it strange that RH9 went straight to Beholder before I could claim my role

Cakez (I think?) was asking for plausible scum roles that would target Doc.
Beholder was one of them.

I find it really hard to believe that RH9 was reaction testing

idk something about RH9 being SO honest about his VT slip almost makes me think it actually was town?? Like this is some shit I'd pull after forgetting half my role or something and slipping. I just don't even know what to make of this.

RH9 who do you think is scum?

At the beginning of this day, I thought it was Cakez but with his claim, I'm starting to get why he went after Meuh.
Because, honestly now it does feel a bit weird that there's no Cop but two Miller claims.
Feels like something doesn't add up. As it means assuming all claims are truthful, there's 4 VTs, 2 Named Townies (in that the Millers effectively serve as this without a Cop), a 2-shot Tracker, a 1-shot Doc and a 1-shot Roleblocker.
I'm thinking I need to re-evaluate the Miller claims rn.
Because those no longer feel as towny as they did before Cakez claimed. (Assuming Cakez is telling the truth.)
That said, I should probably UNVOTE: Cakez while I think about things.

So really, I think scum are in Pooky/Meuh/Cakez.

Dunn I agree the three of us are town. That means probably one scum in the two VT claims and one in the millers. I currently think Meuh and going back and forth on RH9 and GL.

also his approach is not as townie as the other two

As in after the massclaim?
Because, you could be right on this.
The way Cakez has interacted with claims does feel townier than Dunn's.
(Though, I could biased in that I feel like if all PR claims are town, that means Mafia's basically hoping Luke wastes his last track on the PR claims. And that'd have to mean scum are doing pretty well at not getting any attention.)

I agree Luke's claim has to be town at this point because there's not enough town power otherwise

I'm thinking either

1) Cakez just trueclaimed his role as a scum RB
or
2) Dunn is some kind of scum investigative that targeted Luke

what's extra wonk is that neither Cakez nor Dunn see any issue with eachother's claims

I think at least to Dunn's credit he is just coming off kind of obtuse whereas Cakez pivoted from "scum in the PRs" to just immediately accepting Dunn's claim - feels like he may be strategically positioning and not wanting to make an enemy out of Dunn

This is a good point.
Dunn has been consistently been saying 'PRs are Town' (for reasons which I still don't agree with) but Cakez has only really been 'scum in RH9/GL' but he went from 'scum in Meuh/Dunn/Luke' to 'scum prob just Meuh' (given he seems to be TRing Pooky).
Eh. Maybe this really is a scum!Cakez world, after all.
Though, if Cakez is scum, then I'm stuck on who's his partner other than maybe the Miller claims.

I think rn I'm at one of Cakez/GL is scum along with one of the Millers.
P-edit: Maybe it could be GL/Dunn.

Eh.
Now I think about it, Cakez only makes sense as scum with Pooky.

I think we should eliminate in the Miller or VT claims today

If both scum are in the PR/Miller claims then that would make both GL and RH9 town and I find that very hard to believe lol

I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs

I guess this is OK with me.

what do you mean you guess? the alternative is you lol

Because there's still wagons on you/Dunn?
And chances are it's going to be between me/you/GL.

If you think that then it's weird that you are suspecting me after I got tracked to Lukewarm

I think you trueclaimed.
Your play makes only real sense if you really were 1-shot.

I can't tell if you are calling me town here, but if you are I feel like you were speculating that I may have been mafia earlier

Well. I felt like you could be scum, due to the fact that Cakez barely makes sense as scum with half of everybody but like you and Pooky.
And Pooky hasn't felt like scum to me, so reasonably this limits scum to you/GL/Cakez/Meuh.
However, I have been thinking that Cakez can actually be Town and I've been mindmelding with Meuh, leaving the scumpool to you/GL.
On the other hand, your play if town, makes more sense coming from a world where you trueclaimed than one where you're playing elaborate mindgames like Luke has been suggesting.

I'd vote any of GL/RH9/Meuh

RH9 buddy can you let me know how you got from

So really, I think scum are in Pooky/Meuh/Cakez.

to

I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs

I guess this is OK with me.

My read on Cakez changed.
And GL moved back into my PoE, as I realised I had no reason to leave him out of it.

Yeah I'm down to yeet RH9 slot. I think I'm still voting there too?

VOTE: meuh whatever i feel like this is the best shot of hitting scum rn
GL vs RH9 feels like a coinflip
Pooky has read very town to me for pretty much the whole game
And then I've already talked about why I think Luke and Dunn are town

My main takeaway from looking at these interactions is Cakez being town tbh, more than any takeaway about being paired with RH9

This is possibly paired I guess? I think RH9's treatment of Ydra/Cakez looks kind of unpaired with Cakez though. The interactions there don't fit it and RH9's positioning makes more sense as scum not caring about who gets limmed than scum paired with Cakez, I'd say. There's also little bits here and there that look unpaired (RH9 being unsure if it was Cakez or someone else who asked him something, Catboi replying to Cakez with a bunch of game links) that add up in my eyes.

I back down on the unpaired thing but emphasize Cakez being town!!!!

Open question to the Player List:

If you were choosing between only Catboi/RH/Ali Slot and Cakez, which would you choose?

I’d stick to Alisae

Voice once again that I don't want to lim Cakez!!!

It’s just Dunn Pooky stop infighting

Maybe Dunn/GL but it’s Dunn either way

Make it clear that I don't see a scum Cakez world!!

Kinda think we should just dunk Meuh today, all four of us have her on all of our theoretical scum teams and so if she's town this game is just over already. Don't really want to spin wheels when that's pretty much the only place I see us ending up.

This is so lame, at least evaluate things. This whole “we only win in a theoretical scenario where someone specific is scum, so I’ll turn off my brain and hope that’s it” thing that’s being pushed today isn’t productive in the slightes

who do you want to yeet meuh

Still Dunn

Make it clear once more that I think Dunn is scum (and as I've said before, this makes Cakez town!)

This is a staucher defence of Cakez than anything you've done this game, cmon. All you've done is say "well I think all the PRs are town, yay!" which is technically pro-Cakez but also just what you'd want to push for your agenda
My stances around this were clear, and I've probably been the person who's been the least willing to lim Cakez since like mid-day 2. I didn't spend a bunch of time calling Cakez town at the start of this day because it was already pretty blatant that it was what I thought.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

well i know you dont care because both of them are voting you so its irrelevant to you which one you yeet here

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i was asking the people who dont have GL as confirmed mafia to them lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

damn meuh is working hard on pulling my heartstrings I think im melting

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

shes got that desperate townie energy down pat

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i'm tempted to hammer dunn but I wanna see what cakes thinks

[Meuh]

Do you think it can be GL/Dunn? Do you even think it can ever be Pooky? If not, unless you think it’s me+Dunn, why don’t you want GL as the vote here?

I mean I've suggested it here
I think I'd slightly prefer doing Dunn just cause he's conf scum (whereas I could be wrong about GL)
But tbh I don't see a winning path if it isn't Dunn/GL and I don't have that much wiggle room here, so if you guys are eyeing a GL lim I'll hop on

[Dunnstral]

i'm tempted to hammer dunn but I wanna see what cakes thinks

There's always the chance that we flip a mafia pr today, making it clear that I am a town doctor

[Dunnstral]

Also Meuh is being disingenuous in their arguments

[Meuh]

i'm tempted to hammer dunn but I wanna see what cakes thinks

Do it to honour Catboi

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i'm tempted to hammer dunn but I wanna see what cakes thinks

Do it to honour Catboi

using my dead cat to persuade me you're wicked

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

ok why dont the two of you vote for guiltylion now if you're both positive its him

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

cuz if this is scum theatre between the two of you then it'll tell guiltylion that you two are mafia together and maybe he can get his shit together instead of randomly theorizing that Pooky is some kind of mafia savant playing 11 d time travel chess

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[Meuh]

i'm tempted to hammer dunn but I wanna see what cakes thinks

Do it to honour Catboi

wicked

I can't believe you would appeal to a dead player like that...

lukewarm too busy playing video games to save the village smh

Actually, was too busy going to see an Off-Broadway production of Wicked

How was Wicked Lukewarm

It was SO GOOD!

I had family come in from out of town to go see it, and it was a all around great time.

Would recommend.

Now Luke is going return from dead chat and protect you

[Meuh]

If I vote GL and lose to Pooky/Dunn I'll cry but also that would be really funny

[Meuh]

Decisions, decisions...

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

meuh u cant spend all night ateing to me and then start paranoiaing that i'm mafia

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the only team this loses to is dunnstral/cakes and if dunnstral/cakes is mafia together then we're really playing 2 miller 1 tracker and lol we lose

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

also if im mafia meuh i just tell cakes to vote you and hammer you, you'd alrdy be dead

[Meuh]

I mean it's obviously not Dunn/Cakez
GL is 100% the vote from your POV
I'm just paranoid
Pedit: Ughhhhhhhh that's true

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i wouldnt spend saturday night whining about you not trying and going afk on me

[Meuh]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

ok confirming i wont hammer u can unvote now