Perfectionist Mafia - Resultas

[almightybob]

I feel sheepish. Apologies to Cookie for the PM-reading accusation. My bad.

Covenent, why did you want to skip the RVS and start a wagon on yourself? Of course, you could just be scum, cutting to the chase. Please do explain.

Vote: BloodCovenent

for now.

[almightybob]

AlmightyBob - What do you think of Snow White and saberwolf?

Nothing in particular. Neutral reads so far.

saber - put the 4th vote on SW with reason "competing bandwagons are useful for town IMO". I'm fine with that. I'm satisfied with his explanation of what he meant in post 59. That's pretty much the only notable action from him so far, so yeah, neutral read.

SW - fairly OMGUSy vote on saber, but when she explained her problems with his theory, I feel it's more a misunderstanding. I don't think saber meant

these specific two competing bandwagons,

but rather that having multiple wagons going at the same time allows us to see the dynamics between them when one grows or shrinks. Which is something I agree with. Perhaps SW doesn't, but a different view on Mafia theory doesn't make her scum.

I don't see anything scummy in saber's logic, nor in SW's. So far, anyway.

[almightybob]

For those currently voting for BC or SW, are you satisfied with where your vote is? why or why not?

For now, yes. I've yet to hear a good explanation of why BC wanted to skip RVS by self-voting. There's nowhere else right now that I can think of where I feel my vote would be better placed, which is why it's still where it is.

[almightybob]

Hm. I posted 119 before I read your 116.

It makes good reading. You've swayed me for now.

Unvote, vote: Snow White

.
BC, I still want a good explanation from you.

Here I get OMGUS voted, which we all know OMGUS = scummy

This part, I disagree with. I've seen far too many noobTown OMGUS their way to their own lynch. I don't think OMGUS is a reliable scumtell.

[almightybob]

You got voted because i am finding you ever more infuriating.

And i will soon compile a small case of things i do not like about you this game Saber.

My vote was used for pressure because i felt your vote on me was unjust

Which is it?
And for the record, infuriating =/= scum. If your case is based on things you do not like about saber, it won't cut much ice with me. If you have something to suggest he's scummy, that's a different matter, but being annoyed is not a good reason for a vote.

[almightybob]

Why would scum want to get themselves lynched?

Why would Town?

-To you, is there a difference between RVS voting myself to get discussion going, or me self-voting when I am being pressured, and am close to a lynch (obviously self voting out of frustration).

I'm not on that wagon for that reason anymore, but I was, so I'll answer anyway. Yes, there is a difference. The point is taken, and I'm satisfied with your explanation. Thanks.

Good job on the pressure vote. you waited what... 41 minutes to see if it worked. You should have at least waited a day.

Might I point out that you waited 1 hour 52 minutes after your self-vote before FOSing everyone who jumped on the wagon. Granted it's not a pressure vote, but if you got what you wanted after less than 2 hours, maybe saber got the reaction he was looking for after less than one.

Yeah, but is Snow White a noob?

Well with things like this:

My vote is staying because im infuriated.
Arrogance is scummy. I feel as though im being hunted and i dont expect that this early in the game from someone supposed to be town.

I doubt she's a MS pr0. Surely a regular Mafia player would know that random people get hounded based on little evidence during Day 1. I expect random wagons on D1, and I wouldn't be shocked if it happened to be me.
Maybe I'm wrong. But if she's a pro, wouldn't she also know not to OMGUS, as either scum or Town?

So basically, I don't think OMGUS is a scumtell. It doesn't really matter whether the particular player is the ultimate Mafia genius or a fresh-faced newbie.

Why can't it be both? You can agree with a case and want to pressure somebody. Can't you?

Yes, you can. But SW isn't agreeing with any case, she's admitted that she's voting for saber because she finds him annoying. It feels more like she added the "pressure for an unjust vote" part to make it seem OK, but to be honest, pressure for an unjust vote just boils down to OMGUS.

Now as I've said, I don't think OMGUS is a scumtell, but I don't like votes for weak weak reasons like "I'm irritated".

[almightybob]

Sorry guys, my home internet connection had decided to pack in. I'm at uni just now, will try to find time to post tomorrow if I can't fix it by then.

[almightybob]

My internet fixed itself. What the hell. I hate technology.
Anyway...

nook, stfu; I'll post when I feel it helps the town.

And that will be by the end of the day.

A vague promise to post something at some point before the end of D1? Not good enough I'm afraid. I'd like your thoughts on saber, SW and BC please. A quick read-and-reason paragraph is fine, but I want some written evidence of your opinions throughout the game.

@Almighty bob.

1)

BloodCovenent garnered a lot more votes than i did in order to warrant a FoS. No?

2)

Im not aware of anything particularily that warrants such hounding. Maybe its because ivee never been one in question on day1.

3)

In terms of OMGUS. You believe it never should be done? Its neither helpful to town or scum? Then why not use it?

4)

I ave said i have not liked sabers actions toward myself, i do not expect such actions from town so early. This is not to say that i am certain saber is scum. Im not. But that i have not to date liked his actions.

5)

In regard to where my vote is, where do you suggest me putting it? Unvoting means i vote myself. I for one am not enticed to do such a thing.

(Bolded numbers added by myself for ease of response)

1) Not really sure what the question is here, sorry.
2) Yeah, we don't have much to go on in D1. As someone said, if we only pursued strong scumtells we'd never be out of RVS.
3) Voting for someone purely because they voted for you, no. I don't think that should ever be done. It's useless for Town. It could potentially work for scum, if they attempted to disguise it. Basically, I don't like throwing votes around without thought. It allows scum too much leeway.
4) If you don't like his actions, that's a different thing. You were making it seem more like you were just irritated at him. If you can provide a short summary of why his actions are suspect (note: this does not mean annoying) then I'll gladly examine it.
5) That's your job, to decide where best to place your vote. If you think saber is acting scummiest, fine. But if others don't agree with you and you can't convince us otherwise, don't expect it to cut much ice.

[almightybob]

For some reason I imagine gasping for air at the end of that.

[almightybob]

Santos

, you have one post. More thoughts please.

[almightybob]

I would also like more contribution from

deathnote, Lowell and nook

.

[almightybob]

Second: I'm sorry, should we ignore posts until the sixth page? How about we change that. Let's all ignore all the posts until the 10th page!

Yes, this confused me. Sure it was on page 5, but we're only on page 8 now. And even if we were on page 20, that's the reason you can't edit posts: everything from the

whole

game is left as evidence of scumminess. So it's all admissible.

[almightybob]

Also his ISO 1 is antitown in a whole new fashion

What's an ISO 1?

[almightybob]

Ahhh... thanks, that makes sense.

And yeah, I agree with you. I called him out on this a couple of pages ago, and still not had a response.

I gather we're meant to send our own prods. I'm sending SolemnJ one now.

[almightybob]

What?
Uhm, he doesn't lurk in my other game. He posts frequently.

I'm confused. Are you talking about SolemnJ, or Sanjay? Because lurking in one game while posting in another is a definite scumtell in my book.

[almightybob]

This is painful. Come on guys.

Question for everyone: How do you play as scum?

[almightybob]

Why? Need any hints on how to?

Onoes, busted! I knew I should have been more subtle!
But yeah, I like 219, some good points. I hadn't noticed that part of dramonic's 150.

Anyhoo, pretty happy with where my vote is just now.

[almightybob]

DeathNote - you do realise that you can't unvote in this game?

4. Unvoting is not necessary, in fact, it is pointless, if you do unvote you MUST place a vote on someone else. If you do not, your unvote is invalid

[almightybob]

Question for everyone: How do you play as scum?

[almightybob]

Hello. Sorry, I am still alive. An unexpectedly busy last few days. And I don't have time to go through the thread right now, but I promise promise promise I will tomorrow night.

[almightybob]

From a quick skim of that wall, I see mainly IIoA. But that might be harsh, as it was literally reading 15 or 20 random lines. I'll read it more thoroughly when it's not midnight.

[almightybob]

Sorry it's taken me a while to get to this. Just about finished my reread.

Questions directed at me:

Could you explain what about saberwolf's argument was especially convincing to you here?

The point saber makes about SW's defending of BC was the main factor. I hadn't spotted it at the time, but when I re-read it, it seemed odd and out of place. BC was not at all close to a lynch, and the logic doesn't follow. Anyone could be a power role at that point.

Defending a power role is Towny. Discouraging people from voting someone using the fear of lynching a power role when you have no reason to suspect they are a power role, looks like scum trying to appear cautious-Town.

That's what made me shift my vote to SW.

Bob adds his vote to BC. Why not just state your point against BC so he could explain? What was the need for a sixth vote on BC? Five votes is enough pressure is it not?

Depends what the required lynch amount is. Since it's 10 to lynch, I felt more than comfortable putting BC at L-4. He was in no real danger, and if the wagon had suddenly escalated I would have hopped right back off.


@BC: I was pretty clear that the IIoA comment was based on an incredibly superficial scan. I read a few random lines, and saw things like this:

BC unvotes himself and votes for me for "starting" the bandwagon.
[...]
Snow White and Dramonic talk EoS
MME and Cookie ask about EoS.
Snow White says we need to get off the subject of the avatar.
Saber jokes "Avatar avoidance = Scum"
[...]
MrSwauve joins.
[...]
The general consensus by page 4 is that Snow White has been misunderstood.
[...]
Builds a case on me post 116.

I state i was infuriated, which, i was cause i felt my words were being twisted.

Almighty Bob votes for Snow White.

Etc etc.

I have re-read the post thoroughly, and clearly my first impression was indeed harsh. It's not IIoA, it's sort of a timeline with running commentary.

Your vote for me, if that's all it's based on, is Weak with a capital W.


Starbuck: The only post I can remember the mod deleting is StumpyTheElephantMan's "/out" post. I didn't see it personally, but we've been assured that it literally was just this:

/out

I wouldn't worry about it too much, it's not really relevant.

[almightybob]

I like wickedestjr's posts. Finding him very Town right now. Gonna iso Santos and see if I come to the same conclusions.

[almightybob]

In response to my emoticon thing. Are you fudging serious!?!?!? haha. They're emoticons. You do or do not mind them MME? Which one? Surely you dont expect me to go back and trawl through my town games where i have used them too? *facepalm*

You don't need to, MME already did that for you.

I think he's implying that over-use of emoticons has a meta for you as being a sort of subconscious nervous tick when you're scum. I don't know how many games he went through to get those stats, and I'm well aware that correlation does not imply causation, but it's interesting nonetheless.
I'm not sure how seriously he meant it, but sometimes people do things like that without even realising they're doing it. Perhaps scum-you subconsciously uses more emoticons to try to appear more friendly, that kind of thing.

I'm not really inclined to take it as a serious scumtell/piece of evidence, but it'll be interesting to see if it really did predict how you flip.

[almightybob]

Just a quick note:

Why would you not read the rules and self-vote when it blatantly says not to?

Might I point out that your unvote from the post before is also against the rules.

4. Unvoting is not necessary, in fact, it is pointless, if you do unvote you MUST place a vote on someone else. If you do not, your unvote is invalid

I just found this funny and ironic.


Anyway, back to reading the rest.

[almightybob]

Ah, I see you realised you couldn't unvote. Never mind then.

What are you talking about here? I don't see anything about PM reading in any of the posts prior to this.

This was because, at the start of the game, I accidentally went back to the signup thread and started posting in there instead of coming to the actual game thread. You can see the little back-and-forth between myself and Cookie on page 3 here.

[almightybob]

Guys, I just realised something. From the open postings of the role PMs, we can tell that

there are 3 scum in this game

.

Look at the first line of each scum role PM. It names the recipient's role (1 scum), their godfather (2 scum) and their one other scumbuddy with role (3 scum). Plus there's a potential traitor, but on D1 they're obviously still Town.

Incidentally, there's nothing about being the traitor in any of the Town power roles.

@Mod: Does this mean the traitor (if there is one) doesn't know they are a traitor?

Anyways, that puts the whole "however many" debate to rest.

There's 3 scum in this game.

[almightybob]

EBWOP: I think this also means that there is definitely a godfather, since every scum role PM contains it.

[almightybob]

@almighty: But there were a bunch of role PMs posted... I don't understand your logic in picking out three at random? Or am I just not following?

I think you're not following.

Imagine, for the sake of this illustration, that I am the scum doctor. I get my role PM, and it says to me "You are the mafia Doctor with ZZZ (your godfather), YYY (your <insert>) and there may or may not be a traitor." Whichever role PM I imagine myself getting as scum, I'm always given two partners - one Godfather (unless I'm him) and one other random scum role.

From what I gather, the scum makeup is as follows:
1 Godfather
2 scum randomly chosen from the other scum roles, i.e. any two from roleblocker/doctor/framer/redirector.
possibly 1 traitor

Also

@Mod: you can ignore my previous question.

I realised that the Mafia Traitor knows he is the traitor, and knows who all the scum are. I take it he's scum-aligned from the beginning then since his PM is in the scum category, but just can't communicate with his teammates unless he gets recruited.

[almightybob]

Yeah I've since realised that the "on D1 they're obviously still Town" part is wrong. If there is a traitor, they're scum-aligned from the start. I'm not sure in what way they're a traitor then, since at no point does their win condition change, but oh well.
They're basically another scum member, they just can't communicate with the rest of the scum team, and their scum-mates don't know who it is so they could potentially off one of their own. Which would be nice.

[almightybob]

Here. No opinion. Mufasa has bad posts.

No opinion? Nowhere

near

good enough.
You've made 7 posts all game. Your last one was on page 13. A lot has happened since then. Read it.

You can start by telling us which of Mufasa's posts are "bad" and why.

[almightybob]

You skim over quote stuff? Quoting things people say and showing how they're scummy is how cases are made. If you don't read any cases, what's the point in playing?

Gut feeling is poor. Maybe good enough for you, but you need to be able to show the rest of us that your gut read is justified.

This is very unimpressive DN. Put some effort into the game, or replace out.

[almightybob]

A gut read is only acceptable for the person who has the gut read. I'm not you, so I'm not experiencing the same gut read you are. If you can't demonstrate to the rest of us that Mufasa is scummy, how can you expect us to take your read seriously?

Do you have any intention of actually trying in this game?

[almightybob]

There's no way that after 17 pages, you have no reads on anyone other than a gut scum read on Mufasa.
Please go back and read the last few pages properly, and come back with opinions on what has been said.

That

is trying.

[almightybob]

Can everybody link their most recent town and scum games please? Thanks.

My only completed scum game was abandoned pretty early because my scumbuddy replaced out, then raged and outed us both. But here it is anyway.

My most recent completed Town game of a decent length is this one. I do have a more recent one, but I replaced in on D4 in LYLO and basically had to choose directly between the other two players (I chose correctly). I doubt it'd be much use for meta, but if you want to read it anyway, all my completed games are on my wiki page.

[almightybob]

Hey almightybob. Earlier you asked how we play as scum. I'm going to throw your question back at you. How do you play as scum?

I try to play as much as I would as Town. Pick up on tells from other people etc, but just fake the motives.

[almightybob]

BTW. im aware there is likely one other cop out there as my sanity is not assured.

Are multiple of the same roles possible? From the rolePMs it looks to me as if there's only the chance of one of each, with the possibility of a backup.

[almightybob]

Sorry all, having internet troubles ATM. My home computer's decided it only wants to start in safe mode now.

Not sure what to think of the cop claim (especially SW's inb4counterclaim sentence), but I think it's probably best if we back up a little for now.

I'm not sure who the next best alternative is, so when I'm in uni tomorrow I'll have a proper read and address any questions aimed at me/decide where I want my vote.

[almightybob]

Scratch the above, I think I might have fixed it. And so my love-hate relationship with technology continues.
Going back to answer questions and place my vote now.

[almightybob]

almightybob, if you don't have any strong reads besides Mufasa, could you elaborate on what is so scummy about Mufasa to you?

I'm pretty sure you're thinking of DeathNote here, not me.

Gonna iso Santos and see if I come to the same conclusions.

Well?

Sorry, had a surprise visit from the girl I'm seeing, so Mafia was at the back of my mind for the weekend. I'm sure you all can understand.

Anyway, iso Santos:

No, I like this:

Vote: Lowell

1) Not a random vote
2) I am picking on a quiet random voter
3) I have a gut feeling he's the quiet scum of the group

Its a little suspicious seeing Snow White go after Lowell as well. Scum partners? Its possible, but purely speculation atm. I won't forget her vote on him earlier.

Aside from the fact that it took him 6 pages to check in, I'm confused by this not-random random vote, and the related SW logic. If it's suspicious for SW to go after Lowell, why wouldn't it be suspicious for you to do it? And pairing scumpartners like that (even though you attempt to defuse it immediately by labelling it "pure speculation") is strange. You need a fair degree of certainty that Lowell is scum before SW's interaction with him looks scummy. I can't see anything that would give this degree of certainty.

His next noteworthy post is page 11:

Caught up.

Wow, Mufasa, if I could, I would daykill you for that post.

FoS: Mufasa

.

Welcome, RECKONER, it seems I don't play any game without you being in it :p

Also, I think this Snow White wagon is bullshit. There is nothing substantial upon it except bandwagon votes with crap reasons.

I'm going to reread BloodCovenent and Lowell. They are particularly scummy, imo.

So Mufasa's post is scummy enough for a daykill, but not a vote? When your vote is on someone with 2 posts? That doesn't add up.

Also, we never saw the fruits of this BC reread.

Only other notable post (snipped for relevance):

Santos - Scum - Haven't been impressed by any of his posts.

You're impressionable? lol Would you like a cookie?

[...]

I don't know... it did seem rather opportunistic. Did he ever clarify his reasons for suspecting BC? If he did, I don't recall. I know why I would have voted BC (though there are a few others I'd rather vote for now), but I don't want to speak for everyone.

Oh yeah, I need to read that fool in ISO...tbc'd.

Lowell. With a fourth vote on BloodCovenent i thought this was opportunistic.

Ah, there is the refresher why I wanted to look back at him. I saw this as a total bus/distancing.

[...]

Meh, I'll do BloodCovenent later. Football is on. I've been on mafia scum all damn day it seems.

Deliberately misinterpreting people isn't helpful. You seem to have no adequate response to the "unimpressed" accusation.

And more promises of a BC reread we never get.



So upon rereading Santos, I agree with you wicked. He's pretty scummy. There's very little content, and yet he calls others out for lurking. His actions are inconsistent, or unhelpful. He promises rereads, but doesn't follow through.


Having said that:
BC is on 6 votes right now, and with only 4 days to go until deadline I'm thinking the case on him might just be strong enough to merit his D1 lynch now that SW has claimed cop.
But Santos is high on my scum-meter right now.

Unvote, vote: BloodCovenent

[almightybob]

BC: You're at L-2 with about 4 days to go before deadline. Claim ASAP please.

[almightybob]

I take it you'd like me to skip my analysis and previous questions asked? And just claim?

I'm a cop.

I was hoping for claimpost, followed by analysis and question responses, because I didn't want another SW-case with only 4 days to go. Looks like I was right.

Just to be absolutely clear: you're claiming Town Detective too?
So how many cops are in this bloody game?


Also,

@SW and BC

: Did either of you do any breadcrumbing?

[almightybob]

@Mod: Your votecounts are all screwed up to hell.

I've only just noticed, but in votecount 11 you have a total of 21 votes placed by 18 people. And votecount 12 is off as several people have noted.
I'm going back to do a proper votecount. Hold on.

[almightybob]

almightybob's unofficial (but accurate) votecount

BloodCovenent - 7 (EtherealCookie, xRECKONERx, Sposh, saberwolf, starbuck, almightybob, wickedestjr)
Snow White - 4 (My Milked Eek, DeuxiemeOctopus, Mufasa, dramonic)
FaerieLord - 1 (Snow White)
Sposh - 2 (MrSuave, BloodCovenent)
Mufasa - 3 (DeathNote, sanjay, Santos)
xRECKONERx - 1 (FaerieLord)

Not voting - nobody

[almightybob]

Reck, what happened to this?

WHY THE FUCK ARE WE STILL LYNCHING THE CLAIMED COP? ARE YOU ALL FUCKING MAD?

My god. If you guys lynch the claimed cop on D1, I will replace the fuck out of this game, I'm not playing with such an awful town.

What makes BC's claim less valid than SW's? That it came second? If it was the other way round and we'd pushed BC to claim first, would you now be urging us to lynch SW because her claim was bullshit?



I do think that one of these claims is bound to be fake. I'm just not so sure which one.

[almightybob]

Right. Town, listen up. We need to lynch BC today.

We only have 3 days till deadline, and if we don't hit 10 votes, we lose the lynch. There's no reduced lynch at deadline in this game.

We don't have time now to organise a wagon on anyone else.

SW and BC, consider this: how likely is it that we wagon

both

our cops (if there even are two) on D1? The odds are astronomical. One of you is fakeclaiming (at least). So I appeal to whichever of you is the real cop: agree now that we lynch BC today, and SW tomorrow if BC flips Town. That way, we trade 1-for-1 with the scum (or better if BC is scum), which is beneficial for Town.

BC

- if you're the cop, agreeing to us killing you today will flip you Town, which will mean we lynch almostdefinitescumSW tomorrow. A good trade, especially given the unpredictable nature of the cop role. This is a much safer way to get a scum kill. A 1-for-1 trade with the scum leaves Town with a win.

SW

- if you're the cop, agree to kill BC today. It's very likely he's fakeclaiming considering your own role, and when he flips scum, suspicion on you will drop dramatically. You might even survive to give us some useful investigation results.

[almightybob]

In fact i maybe suggesting something ludachris.... no lynch?

This is srsly scummy.

[almightybob]

Unvote

Snow and BC both have claimed a cop-like role...

NO WAY!!
Good to see you're paying more attention now.
Do you believe them both? If so, who should we lynch today in your opinion, considering we have only 3 days to organise it?

FAO Town:

Rules

8. A lynch is at (Number Of Players + 1)/2,

if lynch is not reached you lose that day's lynch.

[almightybob]

My only breadcrumb really is that i made an early joke relating to a game where BC was cop.

BC YOU BASTARD! YOU INVESTIGATED ME!

This is a lie.

Here's what you actually said:

What!? Blood Covenent you bastard!

You voted me!

ps. someone tell me stumpytheelephantman is joking...

There's no breadcrumb there, and you faked one in the naive hope that nobody would check up on it.

That, combined with the scumminess of suggesting a D1 no lynch and your whole reaction to BC's claim, has made me rethink.
Let's change my plan of "lynch BC, then SW if he's Town" to "lynch SW, then BC if she's Town".

unvote, vote: Snow White

[almightybob]

also, nice to see everybody noticed my absence...not once was my name mentioned, and yet plenty of other ppl were accused of lurking. Why the pick and choose?

Well it's only been a couple of days since your last post, so you haven't been away all that long. And some fairly major stuff has happened, so the attention has mostly been on that. But you're right, I didn't notice that you hadn't posted in a while.

I think the real cop [if it isn't BC or SW], should claim RIGHT NOW, as that would def end the game right there.

I dunno about this. One of the few things SW has said where I somewhat see her point is that sanity issues might imply multiple cops. I very much doubt there are more than two though, plus there's the potential back-up role which would seem to counter this idea. What does everyone else think about this?

[almightybob]

-Snow actually thinks that there could be two cops in this game, there are not.

How do you know that?

-Almighty Bob, The likely hood that Snow is fake claiming, is just as much as I could be fake claiming.

I agree, which is why I was suggesting killing one of you, then killing the other if the first flips Town. If you really are the cop, you should be happy with this plan even if we kill you first, because it means (if there aren't multiple cops as you claim) that we're guaranteed a scum kill tomorrow when you flip Town and we lynch SW. And as I've said repeatedly, trading your own life for a scum kill only helps the Town.




Incidentally, I just did some number crunching in my head. If we were to randomly wagon people until they claimed and there were 2 cops, the chance of picking them first and second would be ~0.65%.

Working:
First pick is cop, P(A) = 2/18
Second pick is cop, given first was cop P(B|A) = 1/17
By conditional probability, P(AnB) = P(B|A)*P(A)
Multiply: 2/18 * 1/17 = 2/306 = 0.0065359blahblahblahblah


Reck: Fair enough. I'm happy to lynch either one today. I just think that, given SW's most recent posts, she's slightly more likely scum than BC, so I'd rather try her first.

[almightybob]

Right, I'm happy to off either, so

unvote, vote: BloodCovenent (L-1)

. If he flips Town cop, SW dies tomorrow.

almightybob's second unofficial (but accurate) votecount

BloodCovenent - 9 (EtherealCookie, xRECKONERx, Sposh, saberwolf, starbuck, wickedestjr, DeuxiemeOctopus, Santos, almightybob)
Snow White - 4 (My Milked Eek, Mufasa, dramonic, FaerieLord)
Sposh - 2 (MrSuave, BloodCovenent)
Mufasa - 2 (DeathNote, sanjay)
DeuxiemeOctopus - 1 (Snow White)

Not voting - nobody

Incidentally DeathNote, why did you attempt to unvote in 533 when
1) it's against the rules of this game, as you've been told before, and
2) your vote wasn't even on either of the people who'd claimed cop, but on someone who only had 2 votes?

[almightybob]

@AlmightyBob. Its still possible for it to happen. Given any other two roles the chances of hitting the ones you would predict would be the same. 0.65%. While hilariously outrageous its still a possiblity.

Yes, that's true. But personally, when something's >99% likely to not happen on any given trial, I tend to assume for practical purposes that it's not going to happen. So does everyone, every day, without realising it.
To ignore the statistical unlikelihood of an event happening because "it still could happen" is to ignore the value of statistics as a science.

[almightybob]

We're all allowed to prod each other, do you think we can prod the mod?
I'm going to find out.

[almightybob]

I'm here, responding to the prod. What did I miss?

[almightybob]

Did anyone PM the mod?

I did. It's timestamped Wed 28th, 6:12am. So roughly 32 hours ago. It's still in my outbox, so he hasn't opened it yet.

Also, there can be no unlynchable roles guys. All possible role PMs are given, and none of them contain unlynchability, even as an optional extra. Same goes for vote suppression or whatever other theories were floating about.

I can assure you all, my votecounts were accurate, so BC is definitely lynched. It's just a long Twilight.

And happy birthday saber

[almightybob]

24 hours to daytime again.

So this is, what, Dawn?

We can post. Can we vote? Is Night over, or what?
What about people who are killed during the Night? If you unlock the thread just now, surely they can post before they die?

Seriously Mod, you need to be

way

clearer about stuff.

[almightybob]

I can't decide if I think two killing factions or a SK is more likely. I'm gonna assume a SK/

You're correct to assume an SK. The SK killed wickedestjr.

From the rolePMs, only the SK has a daykill ability.

So tonight's kills presumably came from scum and vig.

[almightybob]

Guys: the vig isn't one-shot, but he will have lost his power because he hit Town last night instead of scum.

Incidentally, @vig: whichever of those two you targeted, what the hell were you thinking? They were both pretty damn high on my Town list. Bloody waste of a Townie and your own role. Unless your kill was redirected or something.


Anyway, back to scumhunting.

Reck, you forgot to include TownWicked in your vote amendment thing. Here it is updated:

10 Votes

BloodCovenent

- 10 (EtherealCookie, xRECKONERx, Sposh, saberwolf,

starbuck

,

wickedestjr

, DeuxiemeOctopus, Santos, almightybob, FaerieLord)

3 Votes
Snow White - 3 (

My Milked Eek

, Mufasa, dramonic)

Two Vote People
Sposh (MrSuave,

BloodCovenent

)
Mufasa (DeathNote, sanjay)

One Vote People
DeuxiemeOctopus - 1 (Snow White)

Starting with the people on BC's wagon:

EtherealCookie

: stated he was more suspicious of BC than SW before she claimed, when he would have had an easy opportunity to avoid the godfather lynch. +Town points.

xRECKONERx

: Included BC in his "scummy" category soon after replacing in. Nearly had a heart attack when SW went to L-1 after claiming cop. Near the end, was pushing very hard for BC's lynch over SW's. Opportunities arose for him to avoid the BC lynch and go for SW, but again he didn't take them. +Town points.

Sposh

: Hasn't said much since replacing in, but like the above, could have avoided the godfather's lynch but was vocal about going for it anyway. Also, BC was voting for him (carried over from SolemnJ) for reasons that don't seem like distancing, more an attempt to start a mislynch. +Town points.

saberwolf

: Flicked back and forth a fair bit at the end of the day. Possibly realising BC was going to be lynched? Could be some bussing/distancing. On the other hand, moved to the BC wagon just after SW claimed cop.

DeuxiemeOctopus

: Pushed for a SW lynch soon after replacing in, when it looked like it would go through. Said SW was "totally scum". After the claim, waited until BC was on 7 or so votes, then switched to him. Looks a bit like bussing from where I'm sitting. +scum points.

Santos

: Pursued Mufasa almost all day (in the few times he appeared anyway), before hopping on the BC wagon right at the end, with very little reasoning. Promised rereads of BC which never came. Seems like distancing. +scum points.

almightybob

: Town. Duh.

FaerieLord

: Just noticed this now:

@Almightybob: Stop telling people how the correct way to play is. Believe it or not, you can play without posting long blocks of text

I assume this is in reference to me telling DeathNote to actually contribute.
Yes, you can play without posting long blocks of text. I wasn't asking him for an essay. I was asking for something more concrete than a "gut read". Maybe some evidence. He had

nothing

after 17 pages. It was ridiculous, and I don't know why you're defending an untenable position. If he had nothing to say after 17 pages, he wasn't playing.

Anyway: dropped the hammer, but the lynch was inevitable so may well have just been bussing. Possible scumminess.


So yeah, that's my thoughts on who was on the BC wagon.

As for those who weren't, one sticks out:

DeathNote

: First vote was for BC, a classic distancing tactic. Shortly after, swtiched to Mufasa. Contributed almost nothing the rest of the game. Tried to unvote after BC claimed cop, citing his reason that "both SW and BC have claimed a cop-like role". Interesting that his vote was on Mufasa at the time - but from this post you'd think he was voting for one of the two, making his actions seem more pro-town. It's annoying he's going to be replaced, as I think he's fairly likely scum right now.


So anyway, IMO DeathNote and Santos are top scum picks, FL and DO slightly scummy, most neutral, and a few slightly Town.


Anyone care to explain the case against Mufasa? I can't actually remember anything of what it is. I'll go back an reread, but he hasn't stuck out as particularly scummy to me right now.

[almightybob]

I'd lynch the town cop if it meant that I'd lynch a scum with him

Without a doubt.

This is correct play, especially with a sanity issue meaning a cop's results are potentially unreliable and therefore less valuable. I too was more than happy to lynch both SW and BC, because I didn't believe that both were cops, and trading a Town kill for a scum kill is always good for Town.

[almightybob]

Snow White: N1 investigation results?

[almightybob]

No results.

Gah, ninja'd.


So did you investigate anyone? If so, who? What did you predict? What was the mod's answer? If not, why not?

[almightybob]

Hold on a second. Let's think this through logically.

There were two kills last night. They could

only

have come from scum and vig. Flavour indicates Starbuck was killed by a doctor's injection (scum doctor? very unlikely vig anyway with a detail like that) and MME by being shot (much more likely vig).

Mufasa claims he is vig, and targeted MrSuave.

If he's telling the truth, his ability must therefore have been redirected onto MME from MrSuave. There's no other way two people could have died. So MrSuave is almost certainly the scum doctor - I can't see the Mafia redirector randomly redirecting on a Townie when he could use his ability to protect his scumpartner.

If Mufasa is fakeclaiming, he's scum. Bingo.

Given that Mufasa just up and claimed when there wasn't really much need to and no-one was asking him to, I'm more likely to believe it. So I suggest we lynch MrSuave, and if he flips Town, lynch Mufasa.



Regarding the potential Mafia traitor: if there is one, they couldn't step into the Godfather role, because this would totally bypass the whole "recruitment" aspect. It would be incredibly unfair to Town. Since the Godfather is dead, the Mafia traitor is now pretty useless to the scum team, except to sway wagons. He can't communicate with them privately, he can't perform their kill, he can't step in to replace their roles. They might not even know who it is, since the information is only contained in the Godfather PM.

[almightybob]

Hm. Just realised that actually how much I believe Mufasa could depend on how exactly the redirect works.

@Mod: If there is a Mafia redirector, how exactly does their power work? Do they target a person, and anything targeting that person is redirected away? Or do they target a person, and all that person's night actions are directed away to another target? Whichever is the case, is the new target random, or chosen by the scum? The role PM isn't clear.

Also, if a Townie loses their power, do they still flip as their original role upon death, or are they changed to Vanilla Townie?

[almightybob]

I don't understand. Nothing in the original roles say that the vig is a one shot! I don't think we have a one shot vig because it wouldn't make sense with the PMs.

The vig isn't one-shot, but like all the power roles, he loses his ability if he isn't "perfect". So if the vig kills a Town player, he loses his power. Since the vig definitely killed a Townie last night, he has now definitely lost his ability, and so is effectively a one-shot vig.

[almightybob]

@Mod: I realised I might not have explained my question well, so here it is in graphical format. Which of these describes how the redirector's ability works?

[almightybob]

saber: there's no debate about an SK. There definitely is one, because wickedestjr was daykilled, and the only person able to daykill (from the rolePMs) is the SK.

I've been saying this for a while, I would have thought everyone would know this by now.

[almightybob]

Alright, read over. Right now, this honestly seems like the smartest plan to go with. I'd say lynch Suave, if he shows town, go for Mufasa next.

I think we should wait till the mod answers my question in post 669, because I realised afterwards that this plan assumes Scenario A is the real one, but if the redirect works according to Scenario B, MrSuave may not necessarily be scum. In fact, if Scenario B is true, I'd be more inclined to lynch Mufasa, since I can't see why a scum redirector would risk losing their redirect by using it on townMufasa, who hasn't been giving many signs of being a PR.

Mufasa: did you breadcrumb your role at all?

[almightybob]

could be a town bus involved, possibly

There's no Town bus. Read the possible Town roles on the first page. You were either redirected by the scum, or you're lying.

[almightybob]

Curse you, ninja saber.

[almightybob]

Mufasa, when you post, please answer questions directed at you. You've already told us you were vig and aimed for MrSuave, there's no point repeating it. Now you're going to be under the spotlight while we decide if we believe you, and people will have questions about your behaviour, the details of your night choice etc. Answer those questions. Like this one, which I posted just a few above your last post:

Mufasa: did you breadcrumb your role at all?

[almightybob]

I agree with Sanjay. The only people who now haven't posted since Mufasa's vig claim are ZONEACE, DO, and MrSuave. If none of them counterclaims, then Mufasa is the real vig.

Are you doing this in preparation for a possible counterclaim, or do you think Mufasa could be uncounterclaimed and scum?

Yes, I'm asking him questions to find out the specific details of his claim. The more information we have, the better.
And no, it's impossible for Mufasa to be scum and go unCCed (unless our vig is brain-dead).

Here's why:
1) There's definitely a vig, because there were two night kills. They could

only

be the scum and vig kills.
2) Our vig is now effectively a Vanilla Townie, and so has absolutely no reason not to counterclaim if he sees someone else claiming his role
3) So if Mufasa is scum, he will definitely be counterclaimed by the real vig
4) If Mufasa is the real vig, he almost definitely won't be counterclaimed, because only scum would fakeclaim against him, and they'd be sentencing themselves to death.

[almightybob]

Thanks Mod.


OK, I am now fairly skeptical of the authenticity of Mufasa's claim. Would he really be the target for a redirector? I think it's pretty unlikely. If I were scum here, I severely doubt I'd have townMufasa pegged as a PR, and I certainly wouldn't risk losing my redirecting ability based on that.

When I first commented at the vig here:

Incidentally, @vig: whichever of those two you targeted, what the hell were you thinking? They were both pretty damn high on my Town list. Bloody waste of a Townie and your own role.

Unless your kill was redirected or something.

I was a bit nervous that the last sentence would plant ideas for fakeclaims. And lo and behold, the vig claims that he was indeed redirected.

Points in Mufasa's favour

- he claimed when nobody was asking him to and he wasn't under a huge amount of pressure (although he did, and still does, have the most votes)
- most of the Town has posted by now, and nobody has counterclaimed him. Since there's a guaranteed vig, a lack of CC is a big point in his favour

Points against Mufasa

- he didn't do any breadcrumbing, and there's been very little to suggest he really is a PR
- I consider him a very unlikely choice for redirecting
- a lot of people were suspicious of him on D1, so this could be an attempt to pre-empt his lynch today with a Town claim

[almightybob]

oookaaaay scum slip

vote:mufasa

Are you counterclaiming him? If not, that means we're down to two, and if neither of them do, Mufasa is telling the truth.

[almightybob]

Let me ask you... since NOBODY has CC'd him... don't you think all of your second set of points are a bit weak? No breadcrumbing is meh, I rarely ever breadcrumb. And just because you consider him an unlikely RD choice doesn't mean someone did it.

Yes I know, I wrote that the lack of CCs is a big point in his favour. And if everyone posts with no CC, I'll believe that he's Town. Until then, I'm going to write all the reasons I can think of, for and against.

We're only waiting on

DeuxiemeOctopus and ZONEACE

to check in before everyone has had the opportunity to CC. If either of you two are reading this, please post just to let us know whether you're counterclaiming or not. We're kind of in limbo until you do.

[almightybob]

manho is replacing DO

Welcome manho. First things first: would you like to counterclaim Mufasa's claim of Vigilante? Please answer this ASAP.

[almightybob]

@almightybob, no counterclaim from me.

Thanks.

with just one person left, can we just assume there will be no CC and move on?

Probably, yeah.

[almightybob]

I'm going to be V/LA this weekend, got a 21st so won't have much opportunity to post until Monday.

[almightybob]

I'm still V/LA, but I just had a minute to pop on. I am now banging my head off the keyboard.

Seriously guys, has nobody bothered to read my posts? I've already asked the mod for clarification on the redirector role. Did none of you read his reply? He explained how it works. I can't believe you lot are still voting MrSuave based on that logic, when it's been explained to be wrong by the mod himself.

In case you lot still don't get it, I made a diagram to illustrate it, which I posted back on page 27. If Scenario One was the case, then yes MrSuave would almost definitely be scum. But the mod has made it clear that Scenario Two is the case, which means we can't tell anything about MrSuave's role from the vig claim.

Jesus, I feel like I'm talking to a brick wall here. All of you, please do me the courtesy of reading what I write.


Also, FL's vote on me seems very random. Are you just using me as a placeholder because you can't unvote? Because I can't see how agreeing with Sanjay makes me at all scummy.

[almightybob]

Effectively back from the V/LA.

This Suave wagon piled high verrry fast. There's bound to be some opporunistic scum in there somewhere.

sanjay is pro-town. gut-feeling for the followings: mufasa-town, xreckonerx-scum, AlmightyBob-scum, dram-scum, mrsuave-town

6 questions. Why, why, why, why, why and why?

I agree with your read on sanjay, but that's about it.
Mufasa hadn't done anything to make me think he was particularly Town on D1, Reck has seemed pretty Town to me the whole game, I'm obvTown, dramonic has seemed neutralish and MrSuave hasn't said enough to go either way.

Dramonic is scum because he's not playing the good old pro town player he was in my game with him as a townie. He's playing more like the scum dramonic that got me killed >=(.

Links to the games in question?

[almightybob]

reck is scum, and the case will follow soon.

Looking forward to seeing this, since I've not noticed anything to suggest it.

[almightybob]

Although having said that, reck was late onto the suavewagon despite earlier saying he didn't follow the logic behind it.

Reck, why did you vote for Suave and put him at L-2 (if your count was correct) when you said in the post before that you were still confused about elements of his claim and about the mechanics and implications of the redirect?

[almightybob]

Hold the phone. You think that SW and BC are both scum, and the third scum Reck chose to bus the

Godfather

out of the two? When the Godfather is investigation immune, plus can recruit a possible Traitor?

Look how hard Reck pushed for people to stay on the BloodCovenent wagon at the end of D1 when we were swaying between BC and SW. Given that the Godfather is arguably the most powerful Mafia role, why wouldn't Reck choose to push for a SW lynch and save the Godfather?

Also this:

there is nothing wrong in sanjay's quote. seems trying to get a mislynch here.

Is serious reaching. Reck didn't even vote for Sanjay, he just responded to him. In no way is that trying to get a mislynch.

Not a particularly impressive case I'm afraid. You seem to be basing your suspicions of Reck off your theory that SW is scum, when we have confirmed scum BC counterclaiming her. We also have Reck pushing hard to lynch said confirmed scum:

I do, however, think that BC is scum.

[...]

More BC votez plz.

More BC votes. Now.

More BC votes plz.

BC's claim is obviously bullshit. Can we just lynch him please.

I think BC's is obviously scum

[...]

As for now, there's no way I'm voting anyone else until BC is lynched.

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO.

Please stay on BC.

[...]

Lynch BC today. It's the smartest move.

That's not bussing. Nobody pushes that hard for a bus. Especially not on a Godfather when there's ample opportunity to get on another wagon.

May as well go ahead and post your SW case, but if it's of a similar calibre then I doubt I'll be taking it very seriously either.

[almightybob]

i've seen scum counterclaiming each other. and don't you think it is a good tactic? one of the scum will be "confirmed". and with the third scum pushing the lynch hard and become "confirmed", they can surely win the game.

But why would they choose to sacrifice the Godfather in this plan? Probably their most powerful member?

[almightybob]

I'm just not really seeing a SW-BC-Reck scumtrio. Your case on Reck was weak, so I'm not buying your gut reads on the rest. If you have a case on SW, by all means post it, but right now I can't see it persuading me.

[almightybob]

Lol e_knits, judging by what happened to DeathNote, 2 rulebreaks => replacement. Shortest replacee in MS history?

[almightybob]

Replacer even.

[almightybob]

There should be some good leads from lynching scum D1. Have you guys been following those leads?

Reck (I think) and myself did some wagon analysis at the start of D2, but then everyone got a bit sidetracked with Mufasa's vig claim, and trying to work out if it was true and how exactly the Redirector interacted with him.

Mufasa is essentially cleared Town now, since:
1) We know there's definitely a vig from the NKs
2) Nobody counterclaimed him, and there's no incentive for the vig to keep quiet, since they've now lost their power.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on the leads when you're all caught up.

[almightybob]

Snowwhite claimed cop I think... what was her result from last night?

She says she deliberately took no action in the hopes a Mafia roleblocker would lose their ability by targeting her.

Mufasa claimed vig and said his target was Mr.Suave, and since MrSuave didn't die, we think it was mafia redirector that "protected" Mr Suave? I'm still not sure how this mafia redirector thing works. If someone could post the thinking there, I would appreciate it. Is it like mafia redirector would target Mufasa and (MME or starbuck)?

Hopefully this diagram will help explain it. The MrSuave wagon is based on the redirect working as per Scenario One. If Scenario One were how the redirect worked, then MrSuave would be very likely to be scum. However, the mod has told us that it works like Scenario Two, so unfortunately we can't infer anything about MrSuave's role from the vig claim.

[almightybob]

So why is there a wagon on him?

I honestly don't know. Almost all the votes that flew in on him used this faulty logic as their basis. Hence why I'm confident there's some scum among those who shamelessly wagoned based on said flawed logic.

[almightybob]

My home pc is dying on me so I'm on restricted and unpredictable access right now. I'll try to get something useful done on Monday.

[almightybob]

I think I managed to save my computer. Yay!

Back ontopic:

I like e-knits' logic/analysis stuff. Makes good sense to me. Also of note: dramonic wasn't on the BC wagon.

FoS: dramonic

Sposh... what the hell man. Please pay attention.

I'm still questioning Snow White's cop claim. Whoever posted that smiley to post ratio about her has just been nagging me.

The fact that we already had a cop flip

, I really want to call bs on her cop claim, but

I really don't want to make another mistake lynching a cop...

1) We didn't already have a cop flip. We've had Godfather, VT, Doctor, Backup.
2) What do you mean,

another

mistake? So far, Town has had one lynch, and it was the scum Godfather. Town is playing the perfect game so far. What mistake are you thinking of?

Snow White claims cop, someone else counter-claims, and she produces no results.

Why is she not today's lynch?

Well the fact the she was counterclaimed by

scum

should be eye-catching.
I don't find her lack of results implausible. Given how easily Power Roles can lose their abilities in this game, I can understand why copSW would hold back on N1 in the hopes of getting investigations on N2 etc. She could also have been trying to trick the scum into losing any roleblock they might have.

I didn't see it much yesterday, but a cop claim and a loss of a cop is screaming at me to go with what is simple: Lynch the person who was counter-claimed.

What loss of cop?? No cop has died in this game. And she was CCed by the scum godfather. How does that make her more likely to be scum?

Snow White, can you claim again, please? Preferably with flavor and your exact ability name?

This is pointless. All the PMs are on the first page. If you want to know what she would reply to this, read that.

Vote: Santos

for trying to restart the SW wagon with appalling logic, and making stuff up about a cop flip.

[almightybob]

You're an idiot. My ulterior motive was to get an exact claim from here, dumbass. Way to ruin it.

SW knows that all the rolePMs are visible to everyone. Everyone does. She can claim any role in the game with perfect accuracy of flavour, because they're all visible. What were you hoping for, that scumSW would make a mistake in re-fakeclaiming? Any fakeclaiming scum would just go straight to the relevant rolePM on page 1 anyway. It would tell us nothing. I didn't ruin anything, because there's nothing to ruin.

Just like a bit less than half the players in the game. <_<

Yes, but I'm sure you'd agree that scum are more likely to either
1) be on a different wagon in the hopes of saving their godfather, or
2) leap on at the last minute when his lynch is inevitable, to get some bussing in.

Also, if memory serves you were the person who voted for SW immediately after her claim and put her at L-1, when she was (at that point) the unCCed cop. Which I believe prompted Reck's threat of "replacing the fuck out of this game".
And you also said that BC's cop claim was far more credible than SW's, but never explained why. To me, neither seemed much more credible than the other.

[almightybob]

I think all night actions are optional, since every rolePM says either "can" or "may", which implies choice to me anyway.
Anyway, surely you could just not submit a choice before the night deadline, which would be as good as choosing to do nothing.

At this point, a dramonic lynch seems like a decent choice to me.

Unvote, vote: dramonic
FoS: Santos

[almightybob]

Oh yes, that will do the town good <<

Gonna need a more substantial defence than that if I'm going to change my mind. Why would it not do us good?

[almightybob]

I haven't got the time to check right now, but when I have time later I will, but lately I feel you have become very opportunistic with BWs, trying to find somebody, anybody, to lynch.

Um... my vote's been on myself all of Day 2, until my vote for Santos in post 884. That was my first vote of this Day, 12 posts ago. When I voted for Santos earlier on this page, nobody else was or is voting for him. There's no wagon there for me to hop onto.

[almightybob]

Also, isn't voting for yourself a rule infraction? You should know this by now.

At the start of each day, everyone is voting for themselves. You should know this by now.

Rolefish much?

No, not much. I want him to demonstrate how the things he's been accused of aren't scummy, and show us that he's pro-Town. That's what I want to see. We're nowhere near the point of him claiming yet.

[almightybob]

Yes, but your vote came

before

BC's counterclaim. At the time, SW was the only person that had claimed cop. And yet you immediately put her at L-1.
If your vote had gone on SW after BC had CCed her, then it would be understandable to vote for whichever you felt was less plausible. But it didn't happen that way.

What about her claim struck you as so incredibly unlike the rolePM that it was worth putting an unCCed cop at L-1?

On a sidenote, the fact that the GF of all possible roles CC is just ridiculous.

Agreed. I don't know why BC chose to fakeclaim the same role as SW. Definitely a mistake on his part.

[almightybob]

OK.

Names: Town Cop vs Town Detective. Not really a big deal, there's no functional difference.

Sanity: SW says her sanity is not assured, so she thinks there might be another cop. RolePM confirms sanity not assured, says nothing of another cop. This is my first game where cop sanity has been an issue, so I don't know how right or wrong her assertion would be. I can see where she's coming from though. Anyone with more experience: would multiple cops be expected in a game where sanity is an issue?

Night Choice: Ahhhh. I see what you mean now. No mention of predictions in SW's claim, just seems to be taken as a normal cop role with unconfirmed sanity. I hadn't noticed that before, her crazy rambling sentence structure makes it hard to understand so I thought she meant "predict wicked is Town".

[almightybob]

I'm not so sure we're dealing with a roleblocker, I think the remaining scum are Redirector (definitely, from Mufasa's claim) and Doctor (probably, from the NK flavour).
But anyway, I think we've speculated about that enough for now.

I agree that on a closer inspection, SW's claim doesn't pass muster. However, I think saber is right. We should save her for tomorrow's lynch, if she survives that long.

@Reck: Why are you sticking with Suave? It can't be anything related to Mufasa's claim, because we've established that nothing of Suave's role can be deduced from Mufasa's actions. If you have a case on him that doesn't involve that, I'd like to hear it.

The Suave wagon makes me feel uneasy. Too many votes piled up too quickly based on false, but seductive, logic. I can easily envision scum using it as the perfect cover for a mislynch:

Oh,

that's

how the redirect works? I didn't realise... oops! But you can't blame me, we all thought that...

I think we should look elsewhere. The dramonic wagon has some merit, although now that I see what he was talking about, my suspicions are definitely reduced. I still don't like his contribution to the Suave wagon though. As e_knits mentioned, the "call it gut" line rings false.

Hah, finally, someone found a good break I missed.

Unvote, Vote: Snow White

This bothers me.

FL has done this a couple of times: kept pretty quiet and not contributed much, then reared his head to slap a vote down on a wagon that looks like it might have a bit of momentum.

I'm going back to reread him and see if there's a case to be made.

[almightybob]

OK, from a quick reread of FaerieLord, here are the times he's hopped on a wagon, and his reasons for doing so:

Yes.

Here, I'll say something else too.

Vote: Snow White

I don't think she's the scummiest to be honest, but she's scummy and deadline is approaching and since we should be lynching, she's the more solid choice from the three.

[Bob's note: Note the built-in escape clause/excuse he includes here]

Ehh, either way. They're both die-ing. It's a matter of who will die first.

So

Vote: BloodCovenant

No (if I had a scum read, I'd just vote)

Either way, I agree

Vote Mr. Suave

(Also, back from V/LA)

Hah, finally, someone found a good break I missed.

Unvote, Vote: Snow White

[almightybob]

Oh, and it should be noted that in the second one in that list, he was pretty keen to stick with SW - right until the last minute, when it was very obvious that nobody other than BC was dying D1.

[almightybob]

I've been saying I want SW dead for ages now.
I believe I said that I was never convinced

Yes, you have. I don't think I've seen you give any good reasons though, other than "I'm unconvinced".
I was fairly happy that SW was Town until dramonic highlighted that she didn't seem to know she had to predict her results. Since this is clearly the first time you've realised it too, I don't see your basis for wanting her dead all this time. I've been looking for any case in your posts, and all I see is stuff like "I was pretty sure SW was scum on D1" but with hardly any reasons.

1: Deadline was approaching, I found SW scummiest of the three. I voted for her. I don't think you can argue that I'd have enough time to build momentum on any other case when those three leads were pretty sold
2: Lynch > No Lynch. I didn't want the BC lynch, but I'd happily lynch a cop to lynch SW the next day. I was wrong about BC being a cop, to this I admitted
3: I misunderstood the redirector role, like what...9 other people?
4: See what I've been reiterating about thinking SW is scum

Alternative interpretations:

1. First off, I see you are in fact using the excuse I noted you'd planted. And you were in the game for nearly 50 posts before you put that vote down, I'd have thought two pages would be plenty to build a case on whoever you thought was scummiest. Who was that, by the way? You never did say. But hello, here's a decent-sized wagon you can hop onto.

2. You were pushing hard on SW because there was a good-sized wagon on her, and your scum godfather was a popular second candidate for the lynch. After the claims it became apparent it was going to be BC, so you stuck the hammer on for some late bussing.

3. See, this is why I didn't like the Suave-wagon. If it had gone to lynch, everyone would be hiding behind this poor excuse. I'd been explaining the redirector role for several pages before that even happened (from ~page 27 I started asking the mod for clarification).

4. See 2.



Individually, I probably wouldn't have an issue with these. But when you look at them all together, it doesn't sit right.

[almightybob]

Good point, I forgot about the Sigmund Freud thing.

You are Sigmund Freud, you have no idea what's happening here but

you are determined to stop the serial killer from going around on mad killing sprees

. To do this, you may attempt to psychoanalyse a person,

if they are the Serial Killer or the Vigilante you will notice unusual patterns in the person

. If you fail to find either of these roles you can no longer use your ability.

You win if all anti-town players are dead

The bold parts seem, to me, to be conflicting.
The first suggests that the role is intended to cure the SK.
The second suggests it's more of a killer-detector, a specialist investigator role.

@Mod: If there is a Sigmund Freud role, can they cure the SK, or just get an investigation result?

[almightybob]

Does anyone have any questions for me while I catch up on Day 2?

Yes. Explain this.

[almightybob]

vote sposh

I take it, then, that you agree with Reck that Sposh's posts are a joke?

[almightybob]

Thanks mod.

So, no cure. I agree with you, SW's cop claim is clearly inaccurate. Considering the prediction element is a huge part of the cop's role, I don't buy that she just forgot about it or neglected to mention it.

Given that her claim doesn't stand up to scrutiny, she must then be either scum or SK. And I agree, the counterclaim doesn't seem at all a viable plan between scumbuddies. So she may well be the SK.

Since we know the SK killed wickedestjr, I'm off to see if he incurred SW's wrath in D1.

If we're right and SW is the SK, I think we should lynch her today. The potential for cross-killing between SK and scum isn't worth as much as the extra lynches it would buy us to have the SK out of the game and reduce the number of NKs.

[almightybob]

Mkay, I just did a quick ISO read of Wickedestjr's posts.

He put some pressure on SW early in the day, backed off and shuffled around a bit onto other wagons, moved back to SW and then really turned up the heat after she claimed.

From his Post 450, straight after the claim, it's obvious he doesn't buy it. He analyses, scrutinizes, and asks lots of questions, poking and prodding. He explicitly says he doesn't believe SW's claim. Over his next few posts (especially 485) he doesn't let up at all.

From SK-SW's point of view during D1 (and especially towards the end), killing Wickedestjr is the only sensible choice. He's clearly not buying her fakeclaim, and several players have commented that they find him Town so a D2 case on her will be given great consideration.
Bear in mind, the SK must submit their kill choice during the Day phase. This means that SK-SW wouldn't know she had been counterclaimed by the Godfather. If she assumed she was CCed by the real cop, she would want to eliminate the loudest voice against her to give her a chance the next day. On D1, the most tenacious of her detractors was undoubtedly wickedestjr.

Unvote, vote: SW

[almightybob]

There is certainly a SK because I am Sigmund Freud.

I thought it'd be a good time to claim, since all I can do is investigate the vig and SK, and

I already used my investigation on Mufasa and got it wrong on N1 so now I'm powerless.

But at least we know there is a SK!

We already knew there was an SK, wickedestjr could only have been killed by an SK. No other role can kill in Twilight.

Regarding the bold: we already know Mufasa is the vig. If you had investigated him, you would have got a guilty result. You're lying.

Unbelievably huge HoS: Sposh

[almightybob]

Quick thought - if there is a real Sigmund Freud out there:

do not counterclaim

. We already know Sposh is fakeclaiming, there's no point in you giving yourself away.

[almightybob]

So, today's lynch: Probably-SK-Snow White or guaranteed-liar-scum Sposh?


Recap on why Mufasa is definitely the vig (there's bound to be someone in this Town who was going to ask):

There is definitely a vig in the game, owing to the number of night kills.
Nobody counterclaimed Mufasa's vig claim.
There is absolutely no reason for the real vig not to counterclaim Mufasa if they know he's lying, since they've lost their ability anyway by killing Town.

Given those 3 facts, Mufasa is definitely our vig.

And if Mufasa is our vig, then Sposh must be lying with his Freud claim. Therefore he is scum. QED.



This was another rash scum claim. BC's was bad enough, I don't know what they're playing at. Certainly makes our jobs much easier though.

So:

Pros and cons of lynching Snow White today

+ her claim doesn't stand up to scrutiny. The prediction element of the role would surely be uppermost in any cop's mind
+ she looks a very likely SK, especially looking back on her interactions with Wicked
+ lynching the SK would reduce the number of nightkills, which would give us more time
- the case isn't as rock-solid as the one on Sposh

Pros and cons of lynching Sposh today

+ he's a guaranteed scum lynch
+ he could be the Redirector, which would mean his death would give our own PRs more peace of mind tonight when using their own abilities
+ lynching him would give our real Sigmund Freud (if there is one) the chance to confirm SW's role tonight, which they could then claim with on D3
- killing him wouldn't reduce the number of NKs against us, whereas killing the SK would


Thoughts?

[almightybob]

If you're looking for reasons then give up on those.
The reasons are simply character tells and gut. They're not mistakes (like the one dramonic pointed out)
Reasons, that aren't slips, only help scum adapt their playstyle to stop looking scummy

The problem with this is it gives you impunity to vote for whoever you like, whenever you like, and never justify it. All you have to say is "I don't give reasons, that only helps the scum adapt".

Wickedjster, followed by Sanjay at that point (actually there was lowell before both, but then I read I'd be replacing lowell as I was doing my reread)

This is strange. I thought Wicked and Sanjay were both pretty pro-Town on D1. I can't remember exactly when you replaced in though, so perhaps circumstances were different at the point in time. Still, odd.


Anyway, your answers aren't the most satisfying, but you've just been eclipsed in scumminess, so I won't pursue this any further today.

Regarding current affair, I'd still rather wait to see Sposh answer to this.

Me too, if only to see how he tries to wriggle out of this.

[almightybob]

I think, almightybob, that you are overstating how good this evidence is

Possibly. I'll look back through it again.
I think it's important to remember, though, that SK-SW would not have known at the time of submitting her kill that BC would flip scum. If I were the SK in SW's situation, I would be most concerned about self-preservation.

While I agree that wicked was playing generally pro-Town, I got the impression from my quick ISO that he was concentrated on SW a fair bit more than any other player. He did pursue other leads and scumhunt elsewhere, but he had it in for SW, especially after her claim.


I think you might be right though. Go with the safer option today, and we'll be in a fantastic position tomorrow. 100% lynching accuracy on D3, yes please.

Unvote, vote: Sposh

[almightybob]

I guess I'm just generally objecting to the leap from "If Snow White is the SK she would probably kill wickedjestr" to "Since wickedjestr was killed, Snow White is probably the SK".

Ah no, that's not what I'm saying. I'm still very much of the first opinion. It's other things that are suggesting to me that she's the SK, the wicked stuff is more like "does this hold up if SW is SK? very much so".

[almightybob]

Aye right. Vote stays.

[almightybob]

Uh oh Max didn't post the lynch scene yet Sposh must be unlynchable.

[almightybob]

Well played Cookie, congratulations

Lessons people should take from this game - AS TOWN, CLAIM TRUTHFULLY AND ACCURATELY.
Sposh screwed us on D2 with his careless mistake. For god's sake, not only putting the wrong name, but putting the only name that would guarantee your lynch??
And how much time did we waste second-guessing ourselves about a redirector, all because Mufasa didn't have the balls to tell us he miskilled? You already shafted us once by killing an obviously pro-Town player, don't do it twice by lying about it.

Sanjay played a solid game, I had him down as Town right up until his death. In my opinion, he was man of the match, and it seemed like very bad luck that he lost this.

[almightybob]

I like the almightybob kill. That dude is good.

This gave me a warm glow