Open 300 - Mafia on Midol (Town Wins!)

[Crazy]

I'm pretty sure optimal strategy for this setup is for the mafia to claim immediately. What do you guys think?

VOTE: Plum. One time I played with him he was scum and one time he was a vig. Since there is no vig in this setup, he must be scum.

[Crazy]

You've played with me twice and didn't remember I'm a girl???

OMG liar! Proof or you're scum!

[Crazy]

I agree with Papa Zito. And no perversion intended, Plum.

UNVOTE: Plum
VOTE: DemonHybrid

[Crazy]

^Did you suddenly remember how to play?

[Crazy]

Uh, I was town in that game, chk... And do you think meta is a reliable source on Page 2? And if you disliked my sheeping, then why didn't you vote for me? What do you think of PZ's vote for DemonHybrid?

[Crazy]

UNVOTE: DemonHybrid

Anybody else think he's acting too freakin'

weird

to be scum? Since when do scum set up "traps" on themselves and then call whomever votes for them scum? I mean, come on. The whole "Haha I caught you SCUM!" made me laugh but I can't imagine any scum in their right mind trying something like that.

And yes, my original vote on DH was a shameless bandwagon vote because I agreed with PZ's minor scum-tell that he pointed out. But since DH apparently dropped a minor scum-tell

intentionally

that makes it

not

scummy.

As with Troll's LAL thing... actually saying that's what we're doing makes scum NOT lurk, so I guess that's good in that they'll probably be caught in other scum-tells.

I'll have to look more closely to see who else is scummy, but the Sudo wagon is a good start.

VOTE: Sudo_Nym

Llama's right about the random post being a minor scum-tell. What I personally don't like is that his subsequent posts have only been defense with no attempt at scum-hunting.

Sudo, who is scum? :O

[Crazy]

@SocioPath - Why is DH scum?

[Crazy]

Well, from my perspective that replacement request with the VT claim just upped my read on DH from "probably town" into "obviously town."

Claiming VT as scum right when he was about to be replaced would be such a dick move, don't you guys think? Do you really think DH-scum would do that?

***

Sudo, where do you get this?

And Socio had a number of good reasons why you're scummy, even if he didn't switch his vote until later.

[Crazy]

@Sudo - what I meant was, Socio never explained himself until

after

he voted DH. That's not what you said here:

And Socio had a number of good reasons why you're scummy, even if he didn't switch his vote until later.

[Crazy]

There must be scum on this wagon:

DemonHybrid (8): Papa Zito, Fate, Plum, Punkin, Cogito Ergo Sum, SocioPath, chkflip, AGar

AGar and SocioPath feel the scummiest to me atm, but I'll have to see where that goes.
Plum hasn't posted enough for me to get a read, and CES has an attitude about not posting content for some reason

@CES - why?

.
Punkin I don't know about. PZ, Fate, and chk seem townish at the moment.

[Crazy]

@AGar, if you still think DH is scum, then why did you change your vote?

Why does defending DH make me scum? Even if you disagree with me, why does it make me

scum?

If you want to know why I say DH is obvtown, here:

1. His weird "trap" thing reads more like ambitious town than opportunistic scum. Scum would normally find less controversial reasons to suspect someone, as well as be far less likely to openly put themselves in the spotlight that early.
2. An emotional outburst is indeed a town-tell. Town are more likely to get frustrated when they are wagoned than scum are. That doesn't mean you should do it, but it is still a town-tell.
3. While he was being tunneled, his focus was on pointing out scum.
4. And the clincher for me, he claimed VT after he already requested replacement, which would mean if he was scum he ruined any chance for his replacement to fake-claim a power role.

And to be honest, your vote on the DH wagon was the most suspicious IMO. It was just a big quote wall with random retorts thrown in. So really, at first glance it might

look

like something resembling a case, but it really wasn't. Plus that weird comment where you said I was "distancing" DH - too much certainty regarding associative tells this early in the game doesn't sit right with me. And I totally don't understand why you left the DH wagon if you still believe he is scum.

As for Sudo_Nym, his stubbornness of sticking to his unorthodox philosophy in this case is giving me a town vibe. Usually when people tell you to scum-hunt,

you do it

! The fact that he's

not

doing that makes me think he actually believes what he's saying. And though I disagree with him

now

, I've actually argued a similar point in a game a while ago, Explosiva Mafia (I was town).

So UNVOTE: Sudo_Nym
VOTE: AGar

And

FoS: Lurkers

for the win.

[Crazy]

@Mod - note that I just changed my vote

And lol at Sudo being the only active player that hasn't voted yet. Now

that's

devotion!

Should be fixed now.

[Crazy]

Ookie dokie. I'll assume you have good reasons that you'll explain later.

[Crazy]

Why are you posting like that, CES?

[Crazy]

@Crazy: Did you really think Plum was a dude or were you messing around?

My first post was just a mistake; I had forgotten that she was a girl; I don't think I've played with her in over a year. When I called her a liar and asked for proof, that was a joke.

Why did that bother you?

[Crazy]

Who is Punkin btw?

Punkin is a Xine and Ythill hydra.

[Crazy]

Crazy's unvote of DH is super interesting. It makes me think of Crazyscum DH-town (jumping off a wagon like that is an easy way to build major towncred)

What should I have done if I was town and didn't believe in the DH wagon?

The way you did it - the 'on the wagon, off the wagon' deal was exceedingly awkward, and using the "too scummy to be scum" argument doesn't bite with me. Nothing you've said has gelled with me at all about DH being potentially town, it seems like weakly constructed excuses to keep him alive.

So is your case on me being scum dependent on DH also being scum? I mean, I hear you say "Crazy is scum because he defended DH" and when I asked why you just implied that it's because we're scum-partners.

You've since just awkwardly bounced about trying to find a wagon with the most traction, attacking someone then retracting it quickly thereafter. Tell me what you're gaining from this, because I don't see anything. At all.

It's how I'm trying to scum-hunt; my suspicions aren't solid yet and I'm applying pressure to different people to try to figure out their alignment. And I left the DH and Sudo wagons WHEN they started to gain momentum, so I'm not sure what you're saying.

[Crazy]

Someone has less posts than I do?
/catchinguplatertonightafterdinner

Why did you choose to talk about puppy training in General Discussion instead of keeping your promise to post after dinner in this game?

[Crazy]

Punkin, if I'm not in your top 6 scum reads, then why did you just vote for me?

UNVOTE: AGar
VOTE: Nobody Special

He's with Nikanor in the "promised to provide content but never did" group. And he's posted 38 times on site since his last post here.

[Crazy]

@AGar, my vote on you did serve a purpose as in letting people know where I stand as well as adding more weight to my questions towards you. What did you expect me to do, go all "OMG LYNCH LYNCH LYNCH??" I never had a case for lynching you; I just was suspicious of you so I voted you and questioned you. Is that wrong? Or would you prefer me to hold onto my vote until I'm ready for a lynch like Sudo is doing?

And you're really flip-flopping with your reasons of suspecting me. I mean, make up your mind, did I unvote DH because I was trying to save him from a lynch or did I unvote him because the wagon didn't have enough "traction?"

Ugh, this is frustrating. I don't want a quote war, because it gives the lurker-scum more excuses to lurk.

I'll ask you the same question I asked Oman, though - if I

was

town and thought DH was town, what

should

I have done in that scenario?

[Crazy]

Punkin, you know I'm not

that

stupid.

NS, 30-some posts on other parts of the site is

a lot

, no matter how you slice it. And isn't the general priority order Modding > Playing Mafia > Playing Mish-Mash?

[Crazy]

I believe that you believe that, chk. You're playing the opposite of your scum meta, so that's a good sign.

@NS - Can you explain your earlier Punkin vote when you post later?

@Socio - Why do you think scum-DH would claim Vanilla Townie right before he rage-quit? Who else are you suspicious of?

@Sudo - Don't make me regret calling you town. Do you have

any

suspects yet? And have you exhibited your same strategy here in any past games?

@AGar - What do you think of Oman?

[Crazy]

As for my reasoning for why I thought DH was town, I posted it already.

If you want to know why I say DH is obvtown, here:

1. His weird "trap" thing reads more like ambitious town than opportunistic scum. Scum would normally find less controversial reasons to suspect someone, as well as be far less likely to openly put themselves in the spotlight that early.
2. An emotional outburst is indeed a town-tell. Town are more likely to get frustrated when they are wagoned than scum are. That doesn't mean you should do it, but it is still a town-tell.
3. While he was being tunneled, his focus was on pointing out scum.
4. And the clincher for me, he claimed VT after he already requested replacement, which would mean if he was scum he ruined any chance for his replacement to fake-claim a power role.

As for my votes...

-Plum vote was RVS.

-DH vote was due to his minor scum-tell in his first post and just to start a wagon to get out of RVS.

-My vote on Sudo was mainly a place-holder because I didn't want to be on the DH wagon since I thought he was town, but I didn't want my vote to go to waste, so I voted Sudo, who looked the scummiest on first glance.

-My vote on you (AGar) was because you smelled fishy so I voted and questioned you to try to figure out more about your alignment. Right now I feel less strongly about you being scum; for now I have about a null read on you, give or take in either direction depending on how I'm feeling. I thought your original vote for DH worked on scum, but your responses to my questions have been pretty good... you're not really backpedaling/making lame excuses/contradicting yourself/etc. The "contradiction" I pointed out earlier was a mistake on my part.

-I voted NS in an attempt to figure him out too... still working on that. It was going to be him or Nikanor, and NS had posted more elsewhere on site.

There are two parts to town play, finding scum, and then lynching scum. I'm still working on the first part. I plan to "hop" my vote around a lot until I think I've found scum. I'm not looking for an easy lynch; if you'll note, I jumped off the DH wagon

before

it crumbled, and I've been off the Sudo wagon for a while, and it's still fairly strong. If it seems I'm "aimless," then perhaps I am, because I'm not sold on a lynch target yet.

[Crazy]

I've been looking at some of Sudo's ISO's in some of his past games. (using Mafiascum Crawls to search.) There's nothing there that suggests this isn't his normal playstyle... the whole "comment on what he feels is worth commenting on," seems to fit more or less.

But I agree that his recent Nacho vote looks bad.

@Sudo - you said a while ago that DH did exhibit some town-tells, though you still found him suspicious. What were the town-tells that you noticed, and why did you still find him suspicious despite them?

[Crazy]

Not enough time to post right now. I'll get to this later tonight or tomorrow.

[Crazy]

Bleh. NS is V/LA again. Oh well.

@NS

Why is "out-of-game analysis" a common scum tactic?

Why didn't you mention the Sudo wagon at all in your last post?

Flakanor is being flaky again. Please make him stop.

Stop.

NS is nitpicking at minute details to stall out on doing anything right now. The case on Chk is bunk. But what really really bothers me is he goes after both Chk and Crazy for 'out of game analysis' and votes Chk, with 2 votes on him instead of Crazy, with 4. If the scumtell applies to both, which it seems to me it does, then why vote for the smaller wagon?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Nobody Special

Well, you're figuring out the whole scum-team very quickly now, aren't you? The excuse to bandwagon is noted if NS flips town.

@Socio

- Do you think your vote is useful where it is now?

[Crazy]

@Sudo

- Are you not enjoying this game?

[Crazy]

Lol, when I saw your name as the last post here I was wondering why you were posting in this thread.

So, I'm currently playing in a Newbie Game with Ranmaru. He's

very

active, to say the least. Sort of a combination of Mastin and ZazieR, perhaps?

[Crazy]

256: I agree. I feel as though Crazy is really trying hard to distance off of the OBVTOWN DH.

Well, I was literally the first person to say that DH was obv-town.

And you are voting Nacho. I take that to mean you think DH was scum. If DH was scum, then why am I suspicious for

distancing

myself from an obv-town wagon?

Please tell me how this makes sense.

[Crazy]

NS is also scum. The DHvote was just a bandwagon vote.

Really? :O Then why did you later follow up your DH vote with this?

Why isn't DH dead yet?

[Crazy]

Because that's how I roll.

That was a serious question. If you're just wagoning for the fun of it, then why the heck do you back that up with a "Why is DH not dead yet?"

^^I'd like other opinions on this, plz.

[Crazy]

Ranmaru, what do you think of what I just mentioned about CES?

[Crazy]

@CES - I'm confused now. What was your read of DH at the time you voted for him, and how has it changed since then?

It's still early in the game, and DH was the noise. Now it's time to look for a new signal, of course.

I'm curious, why did you never find a "new signal" and instead just revert back to your original DH/Nacho suspicion?

Using a shitty trap, and believing it to be an honestly and completely viable tool to actually catch scum (have you actually read DH's posts - he was 100% serious that he had caught scum in PZ), is either scum-motivated or really fucking stupid town. I'm going with the former, not the latter here.

I want you to elaborate on why scum would be more likely to do that than RFST.

[Crazy]

Oh, and Socio, I don't think you ever answered this:

@Socio - Do you think your vote is useful where it is now?

[Crazy]

Eh, there are many worse lynches than Sudo. I would have slightly preferred NS, but this isn't horrible.

Tomorrow Fate should explain why he felt the need to hammer without a claim.

[Crazy]

I think Crazy's catch on CES is pretty good. Yes he does like to wagon people, but I think he got caught trying to express two different motivations and I find that scummy.

Bzzt. Wrong.

CES, can you explain the point you were making here?

[Crazy]

^What's your point?

[Crazy]

AGar, what do you think of Llama's Post #212?

If calling DH town is a grave sin, then is Llama even more guilty than me?

[Crazy]

NS was scum, then, judging by the self-hammer? Awesome. At least I was right about something.

[Crazy]

VOTE: AGar

Only person I want to lynch today. Let's do this.

[Crazy]

I wasn't the only person that thought DH was town after his freak-out, so obviously there was

some

decent reason to think that DH was town. But what gets me is you get on my case for the "awkward defense" yet you can't really come up with a clear, definitive reason for

why

I'm scummy instead of say:

A. A townie that can't express himself very well.
B. A townie that uses bad logic.

Instead, you go for the way-too-easy route of "OMG bad logic scum!!!"

If DH flipped scum, then yeah, I see the case on me. But DH flipped town and you're still holding to that?

[Crazy]

Yes, this wagon is good. Seriously, guys, lynch AGar now for town-points tomorrow.

I didn't even notice what Plum just mentioned, but yeah, that Sudo vote really came out of nowhere.

I've been feeling scum vibes from AGar ever since he originally voted DH. It was an L-2 vote with no clear directive (did he want a claim? lynch? what?) and no clear case. After the wagon dissipated, he still said DH was scum, but he didn't really try to argue that point, likely to avoid a target on his back. Instead, he pursued a wagon on me mainly due to my "awkward" defense of DH. I guess back then I could

almost

understand it if he thought it was me-DH together, but now that DH has flipped town, I don't understand how me defending his wagon could possibly be anything worse than a null-tell.

AGar - I was not the only one to defend DH; I was just the first. What do you think of the rest of the players that followed my lead and hopped off the DH wagon?

[Crazy]

@hito

What do the asterisks next to PZ, Plum, chk, and Llama mean?
Why is chk an unlikely buddy to NS?
Why do you say you have a suspicion that AGar is town and Llama is scum, but then in the summaries at the bottom you say Llama is town?

@AGar - What do you think of the chk wagon or any other wagon?

[Crazy]

@chk - On Day 1, you had your vote on NS. Then you changed your vote to me. Then you changed your vote to Sudo. When you unvoted me, why did you go to Sudo instead of NS?

[Crazy]

Except for chk, whose vote might have been scum-distancing, I was the first to vote NS. That's why I took some credit for that lynch, even though I hadn't voted NS on Day 2 (yet). And I was the first to express suspicion of you, way before Llama ever did. And I didn't say that scum never defend town players; I just don't see why me defending DH would make me

more

scummy. Since when is awkwardness a scum-tell?

Also, what about all the other people that followed my lead in unvoting DH? Are they scummy for the same reason? Why am I scummy for being the first to jump off the DH wagon yet you aren't scummy for being the "nth" to jump off?

[Crazy]

@CES - OMG, for once you are not blatantly bandwagoning! Why not?

[Crazy]

@chk - You provided a big fat case on DH, but when the wagon failed, you jumped off and never mentioned it again. What happened?

Why did you vote SocioPath on Day 2, instead of NS, Nacho, or CES? You literally never mentioned anything negative regarding SocioPath on Day 1.

Also, will you wagon AGar-scum purdy please? If you do, then I may not automatically lynch you tomorrow after AGar flips scum.

[Crazy]

7) DH/Nacho getting nightkilled despite being a claimed townie is noteworthy. Not entirely implausible that this was a mistake on the scum's part, which would point to scum that isn't paying too much attention.

Way to act like you're saying something interesting when in reality you're not saying anything. Why did you bring this up if you weren't going to say any names?

[Crazy]

What I meant, chk, was that when the DH wagon fell apart, you jumped off (along with everybody else), but you never said anything more about it. Even AGar said as much as "I still think DH is scum, but people won't lynch him, so blah blah blah VOTE: Crazy." Other people (such as Llama and myself) said that DH was likely town. Some people (Socio, Sudo, Ranmaru), said he was still scum and kept their vote on that wagon. You had a really big case on DH. What happened to that suspicion after DH's replacement?

As for the Socio vote, you never explained that, either. I'm not sure what kind of "reaction" you were trying to fish out with that vote, since you didn't give any reasoning with it at all, and you had never expressed any suspicion of Socio during Day 1.

While we're at it, you never explained your vote for me, either.

[Crazy]

@CES - I'll ask again, where were you going with the "scum likely aren't paying attention" stuff? Who's not paying attention?

[Crazy]

Ranmaru, you seem a little "toned down" here in comparison to the Newbie game we were in. Would you agree with that?

Also, I don't want to lynch CES or even chk today. My vote is not coming off AGar until he's lynched, even if that takes several days.

What is your opposition to AGar being scum?

[Crazy]

@CES -

@CES - I'll ask again, where were you going with the "scum likely aren't paying attention" stuff? Who's not paying attention?

@Ranmaru - I thought you disapproved of sheeping?

And I'm still not going to approve of any other wagon until AGar is dead. And the point I made about CES' "Why isn't DH dead yet?" comment is more of a "meh" to me, now. The two biggest points against CES right now are:

-His weird "scum aren't paying attention" line; since he didn't mention any names, it was a totally useless comment. On the other hand, the comment itself

may

be a town-tell because it looks like he wouldn't approve of killing Nacho as scum, but I'm not sure yet.
-His failure to wagon AGar-scum despite being on most other wagons throughout the game.

[Crazy]

All this Agar talk is intriguing.
The smiley tell is generally a valid one.
With Agar though, I'm not so sure.
I've been scum with him in the past, and have a slight grasp of his playstyle.
For someone such as himself, I can't see him being sad about bussing a buddy, especially not one who was such lynch-bait.

There is certainly something that I am looking for that would convince me though.

Socio, did you ever find whatever this was?

[Crazy]

NS is nitpicking at minute details to stall out on doing anything right now. The case on Chk is bunk. But what really really bothers me is he goes after both Chk and Crazy for 'out of game analysis' and votes Chk, with 2 votes on him instead of Crazy, with 4. If the scumtell applies to both, which it seems to me it does, then why vote for the smaller wagon?

AGar, why did this bother you so much? Was this just more of the "NS is scum because Crazy is scum because DH is scum" or was there more to it than that?

[Crazy]

NS voted for the player with less votes for something he accused both of you of

Why was that scummy?

And I know you didn't say that distinctly. What I meant is that your case on me made no sense unless if DH already flipped scum, and your case on NS made no sense unless if

I

already flipped scum. Your argument against me would work as an argument for why I was DH's partner, but it doesn't work as an independent case for Crazy-scum, since poorly articulated logic

in itself

is not a scum-tell. I'm not saying scum never defend townies, but your argument against me is more like "Crazy

could

be scum" than "Crazy

is likely

scum." In short, you never explained

why

me using so-called "bad logic" is scummy.

Same thing with your NS vote - your reasoning would make sense if I had already flipped scum, but by itself, it made no sense. Why was NS voting chk instead of me something you found

scummy

, rather than simply "odd" or "interesting?"

[Crazy]

I'll also add that AGar continuing to be up in the grill of someone multiple people have called obv. town is either indicative of him being town or being really gambitting scum. I see the former.

That's assuming optimal play. Couldn't he just as easily be scum playing suboptimally?

[Crazy]

AGar, whom would you wagon if the other players won't support you in a lynch of me?

[Crazy]

VOTE: chkflip

I see bad interactions with both dead scum there.

-Voted NS for lurking Day 1.
-Switched his vote off of NS and onto me the next day, after the wagon on me picked up. He never explained this vote. He then switched to the Sudo wagon after that became the popular choice.
-Voted SocioPath on Day 2 instead of NS for no particular reason at all. He had never mentioned SocioPath as one of his suspects before this.
-When I asked him if he would wagon AGar, he kind of dodged the question and said he'd look over the case again later. He put AGar at L-1, after it was already clear that AGar was the only possible lynch.

AGar also voted for NS because NS voted chk instead of me (when I had a bigger wagon than chk). I was trying to figure out if that pointed to chk being scum or not (as in a "NS, stop bussing.") thing, which is why I was asking AGar about that yesterday. I'm not sure, though.

***

So, in short:

-Chk's NS -> Crazy -> Sudo switch Day 1
-His unexplained SocioPath vote Day 2, when tons of other people were willing to lynch NS, one of chk's

actual

"suspects."
-His stalling on the AGar wagon, until he placed the L-1 vote.

[Crazy]

Oh, and AGar, if you're still reading this, I didn't mean "suboptimal scum play" to mean "poor play;" my intent was just to point out to Thor that you can't always assume that scum are playing

perfectly

.

[Crazy]

Looking over his ISO again, a Thor lynch really isn't a bad idea, either, since he also had scummy interactions with both NS and AGar, perhaps even more obviously than chk did.

I'll be happy either way.

[Crazy]

Chk, what were your reasons for voting me? What were your reasons for voting SocioPath?

Why Ranmaru over Thor?

[Crazy]

In the future, Llama should confirm whether a lynch target was one of his cleared innocents or not BEFORE they claim. And then a claim isn't even necessary/helpful.

As for Ranmaru, it doesn't matter, though, since it was clear that Ranmaru wasn't one of Llama's cleared innocents.

@chk - You don't need to have a negative attitude. I read your posts. If you're town, please answer my questions, because it will help me get a read on your thought processes.

Why did you vote SocioPath over numerous other choices? Why did you vote me?

[Crazy]

I don't see the benefit to Llama claiming his innocents at all. IMO they should only be claimed if (a) that person is about to be lynched, or (b) the doc is killed. Llama is totally safe as long as the doc is still alive. I suppose claiming his innocents would help direct scum-hunting, but I don't think that's a big enough bonus in contrast to having confirmed town that the scum don't know about.

I don't feel very strongly about Ranmaru being scum, but he is a safe lynch that has a

reasonable

chance of being scum, and lynching him will keep Llama's innocents as well as the doc and any other potential power roles hidden for now.

[Crazy]

No lynch can wait right? What's the advantage of doing it early?

Plus Doc may absorb a kill so.

If we No Lynch while the Doc is still alive, then Llama gets another investigation. If we don't No Lynch before the doc dies, then we lose that extra investigation.

And the doc better not try to absorb any freakin' kills. Llama is way too valuable for the doc to play WIFOM with his life.

[Crazy]

UNVOTE: chkflip
VOTE: Ranmaru (L-1)

Ranmaru is confirmed non-power role and confirmed not-one-of-Llama's-innocents, and multiple people suspect him. We can safely lynch him now, and if the doc doesn't die tonight, we can NL tomorrow. I think this is the town's best bet.

[Crazy]

Well, that wasn't a breadcrumb I made. I'm not the cop, and I believe Llama. I'm slightly disappointed that his innocents are outed already, but meh.

Ranmaru is giving me town vibes now. I think I'll have to reconsider some things. UNVOTE: Ranmaru

I'm glad that Punkin's VCA points to chk-scum, since he was my preferred lynch at the start of the day. I'll look over what I missed tomorrow; since I haven't read everything yet, but if a chk wagon formed I'd be quite happy.

[Crazy]

And yeah, a lot of the reason I voted Ranmaru was because I worried that chk and/or Thor were Llama's confirmed innocents, so yeah.

[Crazy]

PZ didn't know that Fate died. I see that more likely as being mistaken town than WIFOM-ing scum. I don't think that scum would think that people would fall for that kind of WIFOM, so that makes me think it's less likely that PZ is scum.

As for everyone else, I don't know, maybe they think the same thing, or they think PZ is town for some other reason.

Yeah, Ranmaru, I know you hate WIFOM arguments...

[Crazy]

Sorry for my inactivity; I really haven't been feeling well. I should be back soon.

[Crazy]

VOTE: chkflip

I've already stated my preference to the chk wagon. I'll find time for this game soon, but tonight, my input is needed more in my other game.

[Crazy]

I'm not really feeling scum-vibes from Ran, but he's a safe lynch, I suppose. Thinking it over, the only safe options for today were either to lynch Ran or to do a No Lynch. But then again, we should have done one of those two options

before

Llama claimed his innocents. Meh.

If the doctor survives the night, then we should No Lynch tomorrow, unless if Llama or maybe a Watcher/Tracker outs one of the scum.

[Crazy]

And yes, I'd prefer that we don't decide who Llama targets for him. Assuming the doctor doesn't die tonight, then Llama

shouldn't claim his target tomorrow,

unless if he gets a guilty. Tomorrow we No Lynch, then on Day 6, Llama can claim his targets for both Night 4 and Night 5.

Obviously, if the Doctor dies tonight, then this is all irrelevant.

[Crazy]

My argument for why we should No Lynch tomorrow:

(Without a No Lynch)

Day 5 - 10 alive
Day 6 - 8 alive
Day 7 - 6 alive
Day 8 - 4 alive, MYLO

(With a No Lynch)

Day 5 - 10 alive
Day 6 - 9 alive
Day 7 - 7 alive
Day 8 - 5 alive
Day 9 - 3 alive

Either way we get 4 more lynches after today, but we gain an extra Night if we No Lynch, meaning an extra investigation.

[Crazy]

@Crazy: I don't think a no lynch will be necessary tomorrow. Ran is obv at this point and we've got the last scum in a small group. Even if the doc gets run up to claim, we don't lynch him, meaning that Llama still gets that second investigation. I doubt he'll need a third.

Yeah, we probably won regardless of it all. But let's not reject any opportunity here just because we're getting cocky. Do you have some reason for why a No Lynch tomorrow will

hurt

us?

Crazy, what do mean that Ran is a "safe lynch"?

He's not a power role, and he wasn't one of Llama's innocents (back when I was trying to keep Llama's innocents a secret, UGH!!!) Plus enough people suspect Ran that he's pretty much guaranteed to either be lynched or investigated at some point anyway.

Today just went so wrong. The best play was probably a No Lynch, which, granted, I should have pushed for. The next best play was speedlynching Ranmaru and keeping Llama's innocents a secret. Instead, Llama claimed his innocents so we could scum-hunt, and then we lynched Ranmaru

anyway!

[Crazy]

VOTE: No Lynch

If Llama has a guilty, or if a tracker/watcher knows who killed Plum, then they should claim. Otherwise, let's just No Lynch and pick up discussion tomorrow. If Llama has an innocent, he should NOT claim who that is until tomorrow.

[Crazy]

Just stop fishing and vote No Lynch. We need to No Lynch before the doctor dies, because doing that will give Llama an extra investigation without wasting one of our lynches.

Worst case scenario if we No Lynch is that the doc dies tonight

anyway

, but even in that situation we don't lose anything; we just break even. So the worst possible case is that we break even, and if the doc

doesn't

die tonight, then we gain an extra investigation.

So how is this a bad idea?

[Crazy]

We're sitting at 4 confirmed out of 10 right now?

Yes, assuming Llama didn't investigate Plum. The odds are good. Even better if we No Lynch.

[Crazy]

We get 4 more lynches either way, Thor. Having 4/9 players being confirmed is better than having 4/10 players being confirmed. And since Llama is probably going to die the night after the Doc dies, we need to No Lynch before that happens, because it gives him an extra investigation, as I pointed out in Post #1027.

I don't think it's an auto-win PZ, though scum winning this is a huge long shot whatever happens. But with a No Lynch today, it's even harder for scum to win. Let's not squander an opportunity just because we're feeling cocky, 'kay? If the doc doesn't die tonight, we're going from 4/10 being confirmed to 4/9 being confirmed. Even if the doc does die tonight, we still didn't lose anything by not lynching.

Once the doc dies, we lose this opportunity, because Llama is going to die the night after the doctor does - which means we won't be able to get an investigation that night because Llama will be dead. We need to No Lynch while the doc is still alive, so Llama will still be protected.

[Crazy]

I don't know how to make my point any clearer.

We get a free investigation if we No Lynch before the Doctor dies. It's less risky to do that sooner rather than push it off, because we might not get a chance later. As for scum-hunting, we'll always have a chance to do that.

[Crazy]

Since your objection was just refuted, chk, will you support a No Lynch, please?

[Crazy]

Hammer, yay!

[Crazy]

Cool. Now as long as Llama didn't investigate Plum, we have 4/9 players confirmed, with at least one more investigation guaranteed, since the doctor is still alive. That would mean an automatic town win, unless if I'm missing something.

Yay for No Lynching yesterday!

So, I guess Llama just claims now, and I think we can just wrap this up?

[Crazy]

This is an Open Setup; a Godfather is not a possible role.

[Crazy]

Does this still hold if Llama's innocents are killed? I.e. if say I die tonight, do we still have this "auto-win" to fall back on.

Yes, unless if Llama investigated Plum on N4, because then we'd have 4/7 confirmed tomorrow, with 3 lynches left.

@Llama - Do you see any harm in telling us if you did investigate Plum on N3? If you didn't, then we won. If you did, then I agree with you keeping your N5 investigation a secret, and I'm good with a chk lynch.

VOTE: chk

[Crazy]

Yes, unless if Llama investigated Plum on N4, because then we'd have 4/7 confirmed tomorrow, with 3 lynches left.

I need to make more sense. I mean that if Llama

didn't

investigate Plum, then we'd have 4/7 confirmed tomorrow. If he did investigate Plum, then we don't have an auto-win.

[Crazy]

I'm a Tracker and I can verify Llama is the Cop (tracked him to Oman and AGar on N1 and N2) and that Cyberbob is the Doctor (tracked him to LlamaFluff N6.) My other investigations were on Ranmaru (N3), Plum (N4), and Thor (N5.) None of them visited anybody.

So yeah, it's CES and Punkin, then. Cool. We can lynch CES today, Punkin tomorrow.

VOTE: CES

[Crazy]

As for why I tracked Llama twice, I honestly thought he was the Mafia Roleblocker and was hoping to get another confirmed innocent out of him. Then on Day 3, I realized he was probably the cop. Needless to say, if AGar had flipped town, then I would have outed Llama as scum.

[Crazy]

Yeah, AGar getting investigated and lynched early did hurt a lot for you guys. As for the scum killing Cyberbob on N6 and claiming a track guilty on me, that would still be really tough, since you'd have to lynch both me and PZ to win.

If you guys had managed to get me lynched over CES, then obviously CES would be lynched Day 7 after my mislynch. That would leave an endgame of Punkin/PZ and whichever one of Thor/Oman that Punkin took to the end. I don't know what Thor/Oman would say, but I could realistically imagine that I could vote out PZ instead of Punkin. I'm not

sure

if I would; I'd consider the decision heavily, but it would definitely be a hard choice.

Though the hard part for scum would be me vs. CES in a Tracker claim war. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see myself getting lynched over CES. I think the scum would have had to kill Cyberbob earlier to have a chance.

Yeah, this game basically turned into the scum needing to kill the doc in order to avoid an inevitable loss. Not a great thing. I've never really thought about the issue much before, but the addition of a Mafia Roleblocker doesn't solve the Cop/Doc combo if the Roleblocker is killed early. That makes me a bigger fan of the doc variant that can't protect the same person twice in a row.

[Crazy]

VOTE: Punkin

[Crazy]

I think a sad part of this game is that after Llamacop claimed, the rest of the town went fullretard, and just lined themselves into FOLLOW-THE-COP mode.
Everything that happened after was boring.

Pretty much, yeah. But at that point preserving the Doctor was the #1 priority, so lynching a claimed Vanilla Townie like Ranmaru that some people suspected was better than trying to pressure someone else into a claim.

The waste was that I think Day 4 should have either ended in a No Lynch or a quicklynch of Ranmaru, with Llama keeping his results secret, in hopes that scum would kill someone that was unconfirmed. Llama claimed his results in hopes of more scum-hunting, but then Ranmaru was lynched anyway. Meh.

Anyway, this was a very fun game. I definitely liked how my 3 biggest suspects on Day 1 were all scum. I didn't stick to the CES thing, though; I ended up taking his "scum aren't paying attention" post to be a big town-tell. Even after Day 1, my AGar suspicion was only lukewarm until I tracked Llama to him.

I thought Punkin was town because he said Llama was obviously the cop and Oman was obviously Llama's N1 innocent and yet the scum didn't try to kill either of them.

[Crazy]

Good game, everyone.

For one, this is the best playerlist I've ever played with, so thanks everyone for that.

As for Ran, he did fine. He's ten times the player I was when I joined this site 3 years ago. I'd echo Punkin's advice to focus on the main points and trim down the unnecessary details of a case. I didn't mind the spamming, once I got used to it. I don't think being "frantic" is really a scum-tell.

As for chk, he should avoid having associations to dead scum. Nah, apart from that the main reason I found him suspicious was just because he kept voting without really providing reasoning for some of his earlier votes.

[Crazy]

Lol at Llama and me matching investigations on Plum/Thor/Cyberbob in order.

Yeah, I really didn't go through any effort in hiding that I was a power role. I was actually hoping to draw the NK onto myself instead of Llama on N3. Didn't matter, though, since Cyberbob protected the right person anyway.

On another note, after I saw Llama target Oman on N1, I knew that he'd have to be either Cop or Mafia Roleblocker, since Doc/Watcher didn't make any sense with an Oman target. After Day 2, I was like 90% sure he was scum, and I tracked him again to get another confirmed innocent from the "Mafia Roleblocker." Heh. So that's why I tracked him twice.