New Designer Mafia (Victor(s) are crowned)

[Amrun]

Hi. I've read through the entire thread, but I'm still formulating my thoughts.

Immediately, though:

I'm not assuming ender is town. Why would a town want us to lynch a town member instead of continuing to scumhunt? Implies explicit knowledge that Olinea is town.

But, again, why would mafia do that? Maybe he's a mafia bomb or something like that.

Or maybe he's a jester.


Or just a bad player. Who knows.

[Amrun]

Quick note as I'm doing further research:

DeathNote submitted a Jester role. Could Ender have received it? Is making up a role conceivable for him, in his meta? If he's jester, he's doing a good job so far (imho). Still, he could have pushed pressure when he got some votes earlier. Just throwing it out there.

DeathNote himself is giving me scumpings. Several times, he asks, "Is this scummy? Is that scummy?" in an open-ended form. It's strange to me and I honestly think he's asking for behaviors to avoid while passing it off as flippant.

The subtle insertion of "we" when he's referring to a group that suspects someone he did not suspect was something someone else pointed out and that didn't occur to me, but I might as well restate it.

Also, complete lack of scumhunting from DeathNote.

On to ISO someone else.

[Amrun]

@Tasky: Ender asks to be lynched because, according to him, his actions caused the death of two townies. He specifically said that a death of a townie that has no more abilities would be better than the death of someone with abilities, like Olinea. He does not mention alignment.

My point was that just because he's all, "I killed some townies. Sorry, guys," doesn't mean he actually IS town, since lynching a townie on purpose is actually detrimental to town.

I hope that helped to clarify.

[Amrun]

Base reads on some others, as I'm fading quickly and need to sleep:

Plum: Has basically claimed that she paired the Lovers. WHY would any town-motivated player pair cooldog and chesskid? I'm new here and even I know one or both of them is likely to get killed early.

dana: Only seems interested in posting about the detonator issue. I think she could actually be the detonator IF ender is not. Overall, null read because most of her posts are about a now-defunct issue.

Demon: Townread so far. Tunneling symptoms = bad, but did recognize when to back off.

InternetStranger: Townread so far, but aggressive town.

Fishy: Some strange conflictions about his/her thoughts on IS. Idk.

tajo and Olinea: I'm undecided, will read them in ISO tomorrow.

Xalxe: Beginning of the game play was scummy. Haven't been satisfied with scumhunting efforts thus far.

zora: Did seem a little overly concerned about defending against ender's ridiculous accusations. Null, so far, though.



Not mentioned are un-noteable null, unless I accidentally missed someone. I'm tired. I apologize.

[Amrun]

Why are you still voting him? Your original vote was a pressure vote.

And my person did not send in a post bomber role, but he did send in a n0 lovers role.

[Amrun]

Dana, how do you know there was no detonator/scum detonator?

Ender was a bomb and we don't really know if he is town.

And there could still be a detonator out there.

[Amrun]

I'm not a lover. I only said that because of the way they died.

Plum claimed it, anyway.

[Amrun]

@fishy: I will get back to you on this.

[Amrun]

DeathNote, wow. Anyone else getting SCUM from this post?

[Amrun]

I don't know about Furc.

On the one hand, he's scummy.

On the other, he's ALWAYS scummy, regardless of alignment.

[Amrun]

What I mean is I think he's fitting his town meta so far. Trying to keep an eye on the situation, though.

[Amrun]

What do you mean?

I think they're all saying the exact same thing, just clarifying each other.

I see scumtells in his play. (Everyone should.) I ALWAYS see scumtells in his play.

I have a hell of a time reading him.

Right now, I think he's playing more like his town meta, but in reality there's very little difference between the two.

So, I can't get a read on him yet. My read on him is essentially null.

Everyone should watch their null reads carefully, so that's what I plan to do.


How does that not make sense?

[Amrun]

1. HE ALWAYS HAS SCUMTELLS. This entire point doesn't make sense. Always always always he has scumtells regardless of alignment. That's my whole point.

2. I can only read him in hindsight -- ie, going through his older games where he has already flipped. In the moment, I am confused to bits. Most VIs do this to me. It's not just him.



I agree I could have made myself clearer. I apologize for the confusion.

[Amrun]

Oh, and, I'd be more willing to lynch him than someone I have a strong town read, but I'd rather go for someone I have a scum read on.

I'm not going to lynch someone who always plays like a VI OVER someone who is giving me scumtells I trust, but I WILL lynch someone who is always a VI over someone I think is town.

In the meantime, I'm going to keep an eye on him to see if I can pick something out of the mire that is useful either way.

I hope that makes sense, at least.

[Amrun]

@Xalxe:

DeathNote. I already outlined a case on him, too, if you'll look. After that, he made more scummy posts.

[Amrun]

Plum, please explain your choice that you knew would likely end to the early deaths of two players.

[Amrun]

I think that post is unfinished, but I am mostly satisfied with the answer.

Xalxe, you are looking mighty scummy, not gonna lie. Pseudo-scum hunting... :/ You reek of it.

[Amrun]

How is utilizing your role as stated a newbie move?

[Amrun]

But what did you do that was newbish in the actual utilization of your role?

If the role is what you said it is, then it was chance. You chose an early number, but not TOO early, which is more beneficial to town, I think, since it gives us some flip information. That it got two town lovers is not your fault, just bad luck.

The only problems I'm seeing with this is a) No one has claimed to have submitted such a role, b) You didn't come forward and none of your explanations as to why even remotely begin to make sense.

[Amrun]

Tasky: I have some problems with how you've approached your argument. Why try to make him think you're scummy? "Lynch All Liars" doesn't apply in this situation, o why force it?

Can you really not see a townie being selfish and laying low so as to avoid suspicion? I can.

That being said, you do bring up good points against Olinea. Why would he not say anything about it at all? This fallible PR business is irrelevant because if he truly beelieved that, a townie would seek to help you unerstand your role so we're not led astray later.

Sticking with my DN vote for now.

More content later. My comp is being horrible and doing this on the phone annoys me.

[Amrun]

Someone revoke Olinea's caps lock privileges.

[Amrun]

I responded in a post to Tasky above, though I do plan to respond more.

As I said above, posting extended responses on my cellphone is a pain in the ass.


Since you asked, though, I'll do a short response:

-Just because the manner in which Tasky attacked you included some invalid reasoning, it does not mean ALL his reasoning was off-base.

-In general, I feel as though someone who was playing with town's best interests at heart would have responded differently to Tasky's statement that turned out to be a gambit.

-You have also had a couple of minor contradictions in your responses to this issue.

-I commented on your caps lock because it is directly relevant to me figuring out if your frustration is faked or genuine, and in either case, if that is townish or scummy. Jury is still out on this one.

-The detonator thing never made you seem scummy, to me, but now I am going to keep my eye on you. I am not ready to vote for you or even FoS you, though.

[Amrun]

Pseudo-scumhunting is the crux of the argument.

Hey ThAd. Nice to see you again.

[Amrun]

ender: You can't possibly be this clueless. Really? Please try making sense. Ender as jester gaining more validity in my eyes.

Xalxe: Why are aren't you OFFERING useful information?! Contribute. That's the main point against you. You refuse to argue it OR fix it. What is this? Get it together.


I really hope DeathNote comes back and offers some content with the prod. I'm feeling happy with my vote on him and the case I've outline on him, but if he doesn't respond, information gained is minimal.

[Amrun]

That is not real content, Xalxe.

[Amrun]

That is not real content, Xalxe.

I think I know that.

Why are you purposefully sinking your own boat, then?

[Amrun]

Mod, I voted for DeathNote. I made a case already.

Just in case...

vote: DeathNote[\b]


We are nowhere near deadline, so I'm sticking with my strong read for now.

Xalxe does not look town to me, though.

~fixed

[Amrun]

Oops.

VOTE: DeathNote

[Amrun]

Tajo: I have said several times that I'm unsatisfied with Xalxe's scumhunting and HATE his responses to the accusations.

Also, someone said that listing 7 people as scum is a towntell.


How is it?! Any scum can do that and hope suspicion falls on one of the people he listed so he can hop on board with some degree of credibility.

[Amrun]

So, encouraging town to lynch you instead of lynch scum (according to you), is helpful to town?

It's not.

[Amrun]

Yes, but your defense is non-existent. You're just rolling over, in my eyes. I can't figure it out.

[Amrun]

No, it has not.

It has been, "You do not scumhunt and any half-hearted attempts at scumhunting come off as psuedo-scumhunting."

There is an obvious solution here.

[Amrun]

If you actually make a REAL EFFORT at scumhunting, we can evaluate if it's genuine.

But you've balked so much that it's hard to come back from that.

[Amrun]

WhenInRome: Someone did send in a jester role. I speculated on enderjester before.

Still not sure. I honestly think he is probably town or jester because of the way he said "lynch me."

[Amrun]

Xalxe, why? A jester role was submitted.

[Amrun]

For the record, the role submitted was entitled "Jester/Fool"

[Amrun]

I don't know if it would end the game, though. I've never actually played in a game with one.

[Amrun]

Did anyone submit Forgetful Freddy? I can't even begin to imagine what that role did.

[Amrun]

If there are multiple scum teams, there has to have been some sort of successful roleblock or doctor protect.

Is it standard to have multiple scum teams in a game this size? I really don't know.

Perhaps Furcolow's team is just called Mafia C to fuck with our heads.

[Amrun]

Well, I was suspicious of SC ever since the "mafia C" thing because of his mention of multiple scumteams, but tajo's post surprised me by its validity. (No offense. I had a minor scum read on you yesterday, but you just shifted firmly into neutral, maybe leaning a little town.)

It's feeling more and more like a legitimate slip from StrangerCoug.

VOTE: StrangerCoug


I may unvote if he gives a proper defense.

[Amrun]

Convincing.

[Amrun]

Is cooldog now also alive?

But ender is dead night 0?!

What am I even reading?

Imho, ender looks like a town vig/power... Ender looked scummy and I don't think scum would intentionally revive two townies.

[Amrun]

CooLDog, ender is dead and town, not third party.


Everyone else:

My case on DeathNote from day one is even stronger than it was, due to his quickhammer of Furc. (Correct me if I'm wrong about this) Even though he was scum, and of course he must be on a different scumteam than Furc (well, probably, though it could be an elaborate bus), I think there must be at least two scumteams with a game this size and a "Mafia C" scumteam name.

VOTE: DeathNote


Still feeling like Xalxe is scum as well, but DeathNote is my top scumread.

Town: fishythefish, chess, cooldog, possibly zajnet

[Amrun]

Olinea, you want today to be shorter?!

CooLDog: I never defended Furc day one or tried to sway people's votes, just stated why I didn't vote for him, which was mostly the fact that I thought (and still think) that DeathNote is scum. I also thought that Furc was a VI, but probably a town VI, but as it turns out, he was a scum VI. I have a horrible time reading VIs, as I said, I believe.

[Amrun]

DeathNote, are you STILL not going to respond to ANY point against you?

[Amrun]

Quick note as I'm doing further research:

DeathNote submitted a Jester role. Could Ender have received it? Is making up a role conceivable for him, in his meta? If he's jester, he's doing a good job so far (imho). Still, he could have pushed pressure when he got some votes earlier. Just throwing it out there.

DeathNote himself is giving me scumpings. Several times, he asks, "Is this scummy? Is that scummy?" in an open-ended form. It's strange to me and I honestly think he's asking for behaviors to avoid while passing it off as flippant.

The subtle insertion of "we" when he's referring to a group that suspects someone he did not suspect was something someone else pointed out and that didn't occur to me, but I might as well restate it.

Also, complete lack of scumhunting from DeathNote.

On to ISO someone else.

This was my very first case on DN in day 1. After that, it continues to go downhill. He flat out REFUSES to refute anything, quickhammered (on scum, but quickhammers are still bad, in light of "Mafia C"), does not scumhunt, and in general is just rolling happily in anti-town play.

ThAd and some others have also brought up different, and valid, points against DN.


This is for fishythefish, who asked for a case summary, but also for DN himself since he seems to be too lazy to read.

[Amrun]

Why would the mod include a role cop if there was a single scumteam? It would seem like a strange choice to me.

It's not definite. Just something to think about.

[Amrun]

Doctors. Roleblockers.

Done.

[Amrun]

But did you think when you were voting that you were hammering?

I was unaware of this discrepancy. Thanks, fishy.

[Amrun]

Okay, that's less of a tell to me, but still a small one.

He wasn't even given opportunity to claim. (In hindsight, I'm glad, but the thinking behind it is still scummy.)

[Amrun]

Cooldog, who have I defended? Seriously.

[Amrun]

I'm not feeling the DemonHybrid wagon either. I won't be joining it unless something changes.

[Amrun]

CoolDog, show me where I have supposedly defended ANYONE -- and more than one person, since you said "that's all I do" -- so I can show you how ridiculously wrong you are.

[Amrun]

Xalxe's lack of content truly frustrates me.

Active lurking at its finest.

[Amrun]

CooLDog, who is the above post addressed to?

[Amrun]

Are you seriously suggesting I defended yesterday's lynch?

I was on the StrangerCoug wagon and I regret it now, as we didn't know he would die that quickly and he died without really getting a chance to defend himself.

I don't understand you at all, CD.

[Amrun]

ITT:

CooLDog accuses me of being scum for "defending" ender by calling him a jester. CooLDog also thinks ender is scum.

Ender is dead and flipped TOWN.


I can't even wrap my mind around it.


Oh my God, though, Xalxe's sad sheephop to the DeathNote wagon is so terrible that it makes me want to vote for him even though I started the DeathNote wagon myself.

But I still think DeathNote is so scum, sooo scummy, that I will stick with my vote on him until one of us is dead.

I will still continue to look for other scum, though, as he can't be alone, obviously.


I need to do some re-reads.

[Amrun]

Xalxe, you should probably request a mod fix that... Also, it's rude.

I don't remember you pushing DN before today, but I will read back, and if I was mistaken, I do apologize.

[Amrun]

Xalxe did indeed include DN in his list of scum and vote for him on D1, so this is my official apology for misremembering. I thought you had voted for zajnet (and you did suspect him).

However, none of your reasons for voting DN have been original. Still, it makes me feel a lot more secure in my vote for DN today.

You're still a scumread of mine, Xalxe, but that particular reason is hereby detracted.

[Amrun]

Zajnet, why the silly question?

That totally comes off as scummy to me.

"Oh, I am just poor town that doesn't know what's going on!"

There was clearly some sort of successful doc protect / rb) / bulletproof action.

Multiple scum teams is confirmed and this is a vanillaless game (or close to, at least). Connect the dots.

[Amrun]

Why are you talking about a vig?

Why do you think there is a vig in this game when there has only been one kill at night with at least two scumteams?

[Amrun]

No. We have TWO CONFIRMED SCUM TEAMS. When is the last time you saw a scum teal that couldn't kill?

I will now raise the possibility that perhaps one team has odd-night kills and the other evens... But if that wwere the case, we probably would have had one night at least with no kills.

In this kind of game with so many roles, it's far more likely that at least one kill per night got cockblocked in some fashion.

But throwing a vig in there?! THREE killers with one. Kill each night? That seems like way too much of a stretch.

[Amrun]

Wow, sorry for the typos... On my phone.

[Amrun]

Oh, I just realized Xalxe was an assassin and a kill still happened tonight.

Does anyone know the usual mechanics of assassins? Scum teams still get a faction kill when they die, right?

[Amrun]

Oh, I just realized Xalxe was an assassin and a kill still happened tonight.

Does anyone know the usual mechanics of assassins? Scum teams still get a faction kill when they die, right?

I repeat this question.


I guess vig isn't out of the question, but it seems unlikely to me -- all of the night kills have been obvtown.

However, I do think the ender thing was a town ability, but a one-shot sort of thing. Maybe. At least it has only been used once so far.

That was the only kill that night, right?



And seriously, I've never seen a game here that had odd/even kills -- but I agree that it isn't a crazy concept, as I originally brought it up. In a game this size, though...? We'll find out eventually, I guess.

Zajnet is now my #2 suspect, but not totally solid on it yet.


Might as well

VOTE: DeathNote


I'm sticking with this until I'm convinced he's not scum, which has not happened so far.

[Amrun]

I posted and re-posted the case several times yesterday... Just ISO me.

Others added to it and made it better, but you can at least get a general gist that way.

[Amrun]

Why aren't you defending yourself or being useful at all, DN? Whyyy?

If you are town I will not be happy.

Useless scum is useless.

[Amrun]

DN, the best defense is always scumhunting...

The real crux of your case, though it is actually more complicated, is that you are playing anti-town. SO FIX IT.

It's kind of too late now, but perhaps you could change my mind.

This is also why we lynched Xalxe and he was scum.

[Amrun]

It's cool if no one else votes for DN for now... We don't want another accidental quick lynch.

Grilling is good!

[Amrun]

Ninjas generally can't be stalked. Assassins generally can kill through protection.

What I want to know is: is it site meta to still have a faction kill if such a player dies?

[Amrun]

I dont see the point of mas claiming but I find it interested that their is only 1 submited vanilla townie type role. Will there be any vanilla townies in this?

Sorry if I insinuated it was vanillaless but what I was trying to say was that we can not assume one of our roles to be in the game. Plus, what if no one submitted a vanilla town role, wouldn't that make this a vanillaless game?

^ You said those things day 1.

Then day 3, you claim vanilla.

Pretty sure you're lying.


I will answer your question in a second.

[Amrun]

*day 4

[Amrun]

DeathNote, I think you're likely on Furcolow's scumteam. (C, I think?)

You hammered him with such a weak, sheeping vote. "I agree... HAMMER!" Although there should have been one more to hammer, you still WERE the hammer.

You'd been voting Xalxe all day, and I think you switched to Furcolow at the end as a bus since it was obvious Furcolow was doomed.

If there is a mafia team A, you might be on that, but I think it's doubtful you'd be on mafia B with Xalxe.

[Amrun]

I'm not tunneling. I have voted for others and scumhunted others.

I'm still not letting my read of you drop off the map. Why would I?

[Amrun]

Lookingforafakeclaim.jpg

[Amrun]

Perhaps your role looks particularly scummy, like populartajo's, who is the porn star or something, iirc.

But hmm.

See, if you had done this on day one, I probably would never have expected you in the first place.

Now I don't think I can trust you.

[Amrun]

Oops, above post should read SUSPECTED not EXPECTED.

[Amrun]

Don't vote, guys. I want to see what this does.

@mod: Votecount please?

[Amrun]

So what on earth does that pill do?

[Amrun]

Careful, that's 8 of 9!


I'll be very scarce this weekend, as it's my brthday. I'll check in, but my birthday weekend starts NOW.

[Amrun]

A post bomber AND regular bomb? That seems a bit much.

[Amrun]

Was one of those a modkill? I'm confused.

~No one was modkilled

[Amrun]

Oh, yes, I see. Night 2.

Interesting.

Also...

VOTE: Zajnet

[Amrun]

Most of your posts are fluff and lack content.

Even when you did vote, you mostly sheeped.

You were very reluctant to vote for Furcolow and I think your mentions of him were bussing.

Throw that in with several instances of bad overacting trying-to-seem-town and rolefishing yesterday.

[Amrun]

All I can fathom so far is that I'm going to miss Plum. She always seems to level-headed and is an asset to the town. I'll miss the videos too

I need a moment to try to figure out wtf just happened with ender, chesskid, and cooldog.

Someone else called you out for over-acting on this and I agree. Just pointed it out because you act like it's a surprise when you've already had previous allegations of this.

I wonder what it means that chesskid and cooldog are still alive. Successful doc protect? No kill attempt?

And why is there only 1 kill a night if there are multiple scum teams (as would be implied by Mafia B and Mafia C)?

This is the most blatant rolefishing, but you've had several rolefishing crumbs -- especially in the posts in the beginning of yesterday, starting with this one.

As I pointed out after this post, this is also playing up the "dumb townie" to a ridiculous degree, adding to the over-acting. The Plum thing I disregarded, but this one made me re-evaluate it because this one I just don't see being genuine -- I don't see how it's possible for it to be genuine, in fact.


Also, you promised content without ever delivering. Before you asked, an example is when you promised reads on DH and DN and never gave them. Common mafia stalling tactic.

[Amrun]

Interesting... Demon, how often can you use your ability?

And can you explain your Sevei read a bit more?

I totally understand the ender kill so no need to explain that.


Zajnet, as I said, I DID disregard the Plum thing. I only brought it up because you were like, "Me? Overacting? My word, who'da thunk," when you've ALREADY HAD TO DEAL WITH ALLEGATIONS ABOUT IT. I wanted to point out the contradiction there.

And I really can't see the post I pointed out as anything BUT rolefishing the way you phrased it.

What did you think would happen? The doctors would pop out and say, "Well, I protected so and so, so let's examine possible failed nightkills! Sounds like a great idea!" ?

I see that you're going to try and push it towards, "I was trying to figure out scum abilities," but I think you over-acted it and it come off very disingenuous to me.

If you'll remember, I did engage in discussion about possible scum abilities, since I wanted to see what you would say about it and I wanted to see if anyone else would join in.

But that doesn't mean you weren't rolefishing.

If others see this and think I'm crazy for seeing it, then, speak up. But that's how I read that.

[Amrun]

Nothing significant seems to have changed.

I believe your claim.

Due to the ender kill, I also believe you're town.

If it was just Sevei, I might not, but I don't see any scum re-introducing two confirmed town members to the pool.

However, we can't disregard the possibility that anyone you resurrect may be added to your hypothetical scum faction. It's not likely but it's possible.


Why did you choose to only use your ability twice?

[Amrun]

So you can't resurrect someone who was lynched?

[Amrun]

Zajnet, you might as well full-claim now.

Panicking at 2 votes is scummy, though. Jeez.

1-shot doctor claim is convenient since it's totally uncomfirmable.

1-shot stuff doesn't seem to go with the flavor of the game, either.

And if you are a one-shot doctor you are unlikely to be the only one.

Plus, that doesn't even mean you are town.

All of this to say: full-claim since you half-claimed.


And DH said he neighborized Plum the night she died.

[Amrun]

Zajnet, you did panic. You claimed. It was very strange and I can't see town doing that.

But definitely don't end the day early, guys.

[Amrun]

I don't really like either of them for shooting, but do you what you want.

But yeaaaaaaaaaaaah, NO MORE QUICKLYNCHES.

[Amrun]

Yeah, not a huge fan of directing the game like that...

But my personal choice off of the top of my head is Tasky, but I. Need to re-read some things.

[Amrun]

Wait, BrokenScraps is in this game?

Wow, he needs to post.

Also, Tasky's ISO is one page and terrible and consists entirely of his case on Olinea, which failed.

Fishy, what do you mean you "missed" the case on zajnet?

[Amrun]

If you killed CMAR, then you're mafia or you've been killing people all game - going by the "wiped out" method.

[Amrun]

Also, I guess that means whoever "blasted" Olinea is not a pro-town player/group, because I don't see any pro-town group "blasting" DH.

[Amrun]

@Chess: Did you also give something to Olinea?

@ThAd: Hahahaha, why me?

I would consider lynching both Tasky and WhenInRome...

Tasky mostly for lurking and tunneling on town (Olinea) then doing nothing.

WIR because he has a sure-fire excuse for why investigations would turn up "guilty" on him ... Very useful for scum. But more than that, for not being super productive when he opened up a QT with me.

But I'm not sold on WIR ... even Tasky.

The two lynches I've pushed for haven't gotten good results, so maybe I should just let someone else make cases for today.

[Amrun]

Edit: Nvm, Chess.


Also, 3 scum groups is looking more likely now.

We have three kill types: Shot, Wiped Out, Blasted.

None of the kill histories look remotely pro-town.

The only pro-town kills were DemonHybrid's, it seemed.

What do you all think?

[Amrun]

Chess, it doesn't look like you killed anyone. CryMeARiver was "wiped out" and you couldn't possibly have killed everyone who was "wiped out."

Also, Tasky said he saw an item-giver AND a killer work on Olinea and my guess is that you're an item-giver.

IS, come on, now. I have a townread on you, but it's weakened by that FOS of Chess.

Chess and CoooLDog are obviously town and they need to start USING THAT TO OUR ADVANTAGE.

Explain what you do / have done, Chess and CooLDog. Do some real scumhunting since we can sort-of-kind-of trust you guys.


I do agree that Tasky is suspicious, though, but obviously my scumdar is not too pointed this game. I've been attacking people for anti-town behavior and they still turn up town - except Xalxe, who DID flip scum, so at least I'm not totally crazy.

IS also being suspicious of Tasky helps, but what do others think?

[Amrun]

Yeah, have we not learned...?

Smh

Stop voting for now!

[Amrun]

Hasn't fishy been on v/la for like two game days?

[Amrun]

Wow, fishy's date discrepencies sure are fishy, if you pardon the pun.

Is it even allowed to go on v/la that long?

[Amrun]

But the beginning of the day was me starting off with a case on zajnet and that was the focus of the whole day - so how could you miss it? I still don't get it.

Will hammer Tasky if we are ready to end day?

[Amrun]

I'm tired of this dragging on. Here's to SUPER HOPING Tasky is scum or we'll be in a bad position.

I think he is, though.

VOTE: Tasky

[Amrun]

I thought I was hammering.

[Amrun]

My suspicion is that Mafia B (Xalxe and Tasky) were doing the "wipe out" kills. I also thought they were likely to be only a 2-man team, since I thought "blasted," "shot," and "wiped out" were three different scum teams (A, B, and C) and if there are three scumteams, there can't be more than 2 on each team for balance.

But if that were true, that would make "blasted" the kill flavor for B, and with Xalxe being a ninja, I simply doubt that's B only got like 2 kills...

And if there are 2 scumteams, my guess is they would have 3 each.


That would make "blasted" a pro-town ability of some sort, but WHAT sort of pro-town player would kill DH?


My mind is full of fuck.


I don't know what's going on in this game anymore.

[Amrun]

I think ThAd is likely to be scum.

But also WiR, yes. Lurking and a fool-proof excuse to come up "guilty" to investigation.

[Amrun]

What about WiR's day one play suggests mafia C?


I really don't think there is a mafia A at this point. As I outlined earlier, it's possible, but it makes little sense.


How do you account for so few kills if this is the case?

[Amrun]

HOW would no A be bastard modding? B and C are just names of mafia. There was no indication or promise that there would be an A.

The more I think about it, the more "blasted" looks town. At first, I was convinced it must be scum, what with whomever killing DH, but maybe they did truly believe that DH's revivals were part of a new faction that DH was a part of, which was brought up during the day DH claimed. The other blasted kill seems like a legitimate town kill.

I just don't think crosskills etc. can actually explain the low number of kills if there is 3 scumteams.


Your insistence that there definitely is a mafia A, rather than there possibly being a mafia A, is making me slightly suspicious.


Also your near-constant v/la has me on edge. Could it be legitimate and unfortunate? Yes.


But I'm not going to lie; there's a thread in Mafia Discussion called "scum declaring v/la constantly" and when I read it, I thought immediately of you (fishythefish) in this game.

I had a townread on you early on and I'm not sure I'm ready to abandon it yet, but your excuse not to respond to pressure this weekend makes me uncomfortable.

[Amrun]

If this were not a time when it's likely that half or more of the remaining players left are mafia, I wouldn't be turning on you, fishy. Your contributions haven't been high lately and I get the "skating by" feeling from you the closer to endgame we get.

I have to carefully analyze EVERYONE left, not just the scummiest person. I hope you get that.


And if you were scum in 2/3 games, I can see the logic behind v/la for lurking reasons, making it sitewide for validity. That can't be proven or disproven, but for now, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. I still have to cover all my bases.

And if DH was a town kill, I too despair of that person.

But a scumteam with only two successful kills...? I just don't see it.

It's possible. Idk.


Like I said earlier, my mind is full of fuck.

[Amrun]

What happened in the talk with fishy?

[Amrun]

I have to say I find myself agreeing with IS.

Even if IS is scum, he's obviously not mafia B.

I want to lynch the last mafia B member today.

The only person that comes to mind is show-up-to-hammer Fishy.

But I need to re-read for other connections first.

[Amrun]

So you think fishy is scum, thad?

[Amrun]

WiR, I'm not convinced on you being scum.

It's possible, but not a sure thing (in my eyes). Something about you feels genuine. I think you would have been more cautious in the QT we had that one night had you been scum, for one thing.


Why do YOU think fishy is scum, WiR?

[Amrun]

Oh, and, yes, I did notice the two different kill flavors.

It seems to me like both scumteams tried to kill them ... or perhaps they were protected and the kills only succeeded because they were attacked twice? Idk.

[Amrun]

Typical. Zoraster, really? The two players with the least contribution go on v/la when we're obviously nearing endgame. 'Til Monday isn't so bad though.


WiR, that is good evidence. I definitely agree that Fishy has been diverting attention from himself, seemingly intentionally.


I want to put fishy at L-1, but not yet, the way lynches have been fishy. (Pun unintentional.)


I definitely want to hear from everybody before proceeding.


I do want a fishy claim, though.

[Amrun]

Yes, but still, if he is mafia that has info on other mafia, that could be useful?

[Amrun]

Question:

Assuming IS' idea of you as scum B, why would it be losing to lynch you?

Let's say there's you as lone scum B, and WiR as part of scum C.

If we lynch WiR, that leaves TWO nightkills at night (potentially 3).

If we lynch you, that's one less nightkill.

How would lynching WiR be beneficialy in this scenario?


Your points about IS himself are valid, and I will do some thinking on them - though in general, nightkill WIFOM is very unreliable, and I will look back to see if his PLAY supports this conclusion rather than ONLY nightkills.

However, your points about IS' case... Not so valid. I see his point over yours. Yes, this game has been moving fast, and yes, you could be simply unfortunate with timing. Still, I can't ignore the possibility that it's a strategy.

[Amrun]

IS: Do you still think fishy could be scum B?

Fishy: Admitting you strawmanned a case doesn't make it better.


To-do list: ISO IS, ThAd and zoraster and any other player I've forgotten is alive.

[Amrun]

So now you think an A group is likely, IS?

[Amrun]

Ugh. I'm confused.

I think you're both scum.

I'm willing to compromise and lynch WiR, but I still need to complete those ISOs.

[Amrun]

Idk know yet.

I'm still feeling like fishy is B and I want to lynch B. I think.

My mind is full of fuck.

[Amrun]

I'm pretty convinced fishy is scum, tbh.

I still want to hear from zoraster before a lynch is achieved...

But honestly, fishy, you might as well consider yourself at L-1. I would do it for real if I wasn't afraid of lynch shenanigans.

[Amrun]

ISOs started.

First up:

zoraster:

Actually quite similar to fishy. He started off the game looking very town to me, yet hasn't been NKed. Later in the game, he's peppered us with v/las and actual unexplainable absences with very little content in between.

His only firm stances have been against Xalxe and Tasky, so it's obvious that he's not Mafia B.

However, he doesn't mention Furcolow ONCE in his entire ISO... I'm thinking it's possible he's mafia C.

Or, he could be totally disinterested town. Not sure.

However, this post stood out to me:

mostly I'm curious about it myself, and I watched that video a few times over thinking to myself, "if i were a third party, what would be scummy? what town?"

... WHAT? If I were third party?!

Maybe he's a third party killer (blast kills)?

[Amrun]

ISO #2:

ThAd.

I expressed an early suspicion of him today, but after an ISO, I change my mind. ThAd is town. He is obviously not Mafia B, and though he didn't vote for Furc, he addressed Furc several times and called him out for some things. He COULD be Mafia C but I don't think so.

He could be some hypothetical Mafia A, but as I don't think Mafia A exists, I don't think so.

Okay, good. Me, ThAd, and someone else SHOULD be the remaining town. This helps. I feel confident about this read.

[Amrun]

WiR:

Definitely not mafia B. As others have said, WiR being a member of mafia C looks likely.

He has a scummy ability BUT he's been upfront about it.

Seems to have been slightly deceptive with fishy in his night QTs. Scumpoint there.

Lack of caution in his QT with me: townpoint.

[Amrun]

IS:

Suspected and voted for Furcolow, Xalxe, and Tasy.

I find it unlikely that he's Mafia C or Mafia B.

If there is a hypothetical Mafia A, it's possible he's on it with his backtracking about the existence of a Mafia A today.

I, however, do not think there is a Mafia A, though not totally ruling it out. Even if there is a Mafia A, I'm not voting for someone who is hypothetically Mafia A when there are much more likely scenarios. Tomorrow, this may change, depending on how the flip and then night goes. Today, however, I will not support an IS or a ThAd lynch.

Here are my conclusions after ISOing everybody:

Mafia B: Xalxe, Tasky, Fishy

Mafia C: Furcolow, zoraster, WiR

Remaining town: Amrun, ThAdmiral, InternetStranger


I could be wrong, but this is what I'm thinking as of right now.

Obviously, if there's a Mafia A, that is definitely wrong, but I won't be voting on suspicion of Mafia A until tomorrow at the earliest.


The only question is do I vote for who I suspect to be Mafia B or who I suspect to be Mafia C?

[Amrun]

WiR, how about you give an analysis of remaining town and scum?

[Amrun]

Assuming we successfully lynch the remaining mafia B member, then we'd go into night 2 with a 3:2 as far as I can guess. If mafia C then kills a town member, that's not good, unless the other kill flavor takes out a mafia member as well. That WOULD be good, as it would leave us with 2:1.

If we successfully lynch a mafia C member, then it's still 3:1:1, but there can be up to 3 nightkills. Worst case scenario: mafia B gets a town member, mafia C gets a town member, third kill flavor gets a town member.... the mafia teams tie, if that's even possible. If ONE of those kills is a mafia member, it's 1:1:1. I honestly don't even know what would happen in that situation.

We also can't discount the idea that blasted is an SK role ... which would be very bad.


Both of these scenarios are awful, honestly. It really all comes down to is blasted a pro-town role or not?

If it is, lynching fishy is the way to go. If it's not, lynching WiR is the way to go ... maybe.

I might have to take a gamble on fishy either way, because the second scenario confuses me a LOT while the first is simple.

Thoughts?


Looking forward to a zoraster post today. If there is an SK type role, I peg him as it.

[Amrun]

Evidence on Mafia A:
-Bastard modding? I totally disagree. Maybe town is A and we don't even know it. They're just names, either way.
-Blasted could be an SK kill, too, which you seem to be completely disregarding. The three kills is, of course, the best piece of evidence that still has me baffled. But how could it possibly have only 2 kills?!

I'm not discounting the possibility of Mafia A existing, but I decided that for the purposes of PoE today, I would think about B and C as groups.

Tomorrow, after all the related flips, I may reconsider or I may not.

In the land where B and C are the mafia groups, you are scum by PoE and associative tells.

However, I'm fine with a WiR lynch instead since he's likely to be mafia either way.


Still, the situations I outlined above make me think that if we DON'T lynch you and you ARE mafia B, we might be screwed.

So, I'm currently weighing possibilities.

[Amrun]

Oh, and I should mention that your supposed lack of ability to post was ruined when you constantly defended yourself, which makes me think you were intentionally lurking. Definitely a strike against you.

[Amrun]

Fishy: then who do you want to lynch besides IS, since ThAd and I think he's twn and won't support his lynch? Is zoraster a good compromise?

Zoraster: I ISOed you on this page. Read it. Do you think there is a Mafia A? Scum and townlist, please.

[Amrun]

I really don't want to lynch ThAd... Maybe tomorrow, if we confirm Mafia A, but not today. Same for IS - and in fact if there is a mafia A, I will happily vote for him over all others.

I think some of IS' points today have been valid and others have been strange/bad, such as his flip-flopping on the existence of Mafia A. Still, his actual analysis of your play I don't see much problem with, and that's the important part, imho.


Can you give me a read of what you REALLY think about zoraster?


Also, your 2. and 3. points I totally see, of course, but I've been thinking about it, and is it possible it was an SK with a trigger? Like, he can only kill after n5 or something? idk. :/ I need to think a bit more.

[Amrun]

I agreed with IS' analysis of your late hops on the wagon with both Xalxe and Tasky - which were the associative tells I was talking about early.

I've been thinking about zoraster as a serial killer A, and I think it could work... I mean, it's definitely not too strange to think that his kills got buggered the first couple of nights, since there were more roles in action then. And he's been pretty inactive. Let's say he missed a night?

Along with his weird "third party" slip that I can't believe I missed in the beginning of the game, I could see this.

[Amrun]

*earlier, not early, in the first sentence of #1249

[Amrun]

Is there a reason you haven't claimed even though I told you that you should think of yourself at L-1, fishy?

I'm much less hesitant now anyway, as zoraster has had the time to post and it has been as lackluster as always. Still want to give him more time, though.

[Amrun]

Actually, WiR and ThAd have professed scumreads on you, so that makes 4. I'd be willing to lynch today because it's a consensus we can come to and I think you're scum -- also because the scenario where you are mafia B is SIMPLE, whereas the rest is complicated and confuses me.

Also willing to lynch WiR, as stated earlier, but people seem to agree he's scum with no real push for a lynch. I just want a scum lynch today. I honestly can't be that fussed over who it is.

Are you happy lynching WiR, fishy? If so, that's fine with me.

I'm honestly tired of today. I really have enjoyed this game, but I'm eager to see it through to the finish line and I don't think dawdling will help us much rather than confuse us more.

[Amrun]

If we lynch WiR, we likely get a C scum and then the night will probably clarify this A business and we can tackle IS et. al. tomorrow with more information. Make sense? Can we come to a consensus on this?

[Amrun]

Okay, honestly, there aren't many scenarios that equal a town win.

In my opinion, all we can do is vote for likely scum and hope for the best and lots of lots of crosskills and role shenanigans tonight.

How about zoraster? Willing to lynch him? I am. He could even be Mafia A.

And, while we're thinking of it...

VOTE: zoraster

Until he gets his ass in here and gives the content he's been promising. He asked for some simple questions to answer while he caught up. I asked him them. He didn't deliver.

[Amrun]

How are you feeling about zoraster, ThAd?

[Amrun]

But, would you support his lynch today? Do you think it's a good idea, or no?

[Amrun]

I do agree that WiR is probable scum.

But you do realize that we're almost definitely at 3:3 right now ... or even 2:2:1.

So going after the basic scummiest may not be the best strategy.



Do you think there is a mafia A or not? Very important that you take a stance on this.

[Amrun]

Fishy, I was counting all mafia as one unit in those little "scenarios." So, yes, you're right, but the spread of mafia didn't matter so much in the point I was making of town:mafia ratio.


zoraster, whose lynch are you willing to support today? Just WiR?

[Amrun]

But your allies you believe in unequivocally, zoraster?

VOTE: WhenInRome

Since we can all agree on this.

[Amrun]

Anyone opposed to just lynching wir now?

[Amrun]

Well, we tried to kill him at night, but it's not like he could have hidden behind a non-existent town-aligned player...


Why was there only one kill, though? Did they try to kill IS (protected)?


Also, can we get all the actions? IS and I tried to kill Fishy TWICE and it didn't work each time, but his role doesn't seem to be NK immune.

We thought he was probably SK for this reason, but weren't sure. He was, but ...?

WHO THE FUCK

HAD THE BLASTED KILLS

SOMEONE TELL ME

Also why did mafia B get more people than us? That really threw off my guesses. Although the only one I was really wrong with was ThAd since I thought he was town by PoE. (I didn't share my ACTUAL reads itt, haha.)

Man, zoraster bussed hard. Wow. lol


Good game, everyone! It's been one of my favorites so far.

[Amrun]

And daaamn. It is annoying to think that I could have killed Fishy if I just PROTECTED him.

[Amrun]

So fishy WAS NK immune, LLama?

[Amrun]

I thought I was going to die last night by virtue of appearing too town, actually.

[Amrun]

So fishy got an NK, then? Did he not submit last night?

And IS, I'm still surprised you didn't know WhenInRome was town. I did.

It is quite ironic that he was the last town and got lynched.

Brofist for IS.

[Amrun]

Poor mafia B only got two kills.

[Amrun]

Yeah, town was bad. Ha.

[Amrun]

Omg, Night 1.

_Night One_

dana investigated IS

Xaxle kills IS (protected)

Amrun kills dana

Amrun protects IS

I had to laugh at that.



Also, the night I missed, I THOUGHT I submitted, but some sort of computer snafu meant the PM didn't go through for some reason. We were going to submit killing DH so it ended up not mattering at all.

Thanks for the nomination. I really appreciated it.


And yes, the final day, I was put in a tenuous position; I had to avoid an IS lynch and hope to God it was endgame or we could pull off a quicklynch tomorrow. If we had had a day today, I probably would have bussed him unless we could quicklynch with his extra vote.

[Amrun]

I lucked out, somehow not getting NK.

Would be great irony to be NK by scum trying to hit town, though.

IS and Fishy were targeted so much haha.

Did you see the n1 actions, IS? I laughed.

[Amrun]

Probably. Hahaha. The irony is delicious.

[Amrun]

Ranking?

[Amrun]

I can't say I would have done it as town. Can being scum be my excuse?

You had a pretty cool role, SC.

[Amrun]

It was pretty funny how I was the LAST town player alive, and they lynched me.

It really was. I knew you were town (sorry) but I didn't realize you were the very last player.