Mafia 137 - Neruzian Era Mafia SERIAL KILLER WIN!

[mastin2]

Once again, I have blackmailed the mod into giving me a Town PM.
/Confirm.

[mastin2]

This game. It's too easy.

Torquez is Town.
So is Toon.
As is Maxous.

Tomie, on the other hand, is looking like scum.

Vote: Tomie

.

[mastin2]

2. edmund.angles <--Very minor scum-lean.
3. PranaDevil <--Very minor town-lean.
4. hiplop <--Flip-flops, so null.
8. Uprising <--Flip-flops, but overall leans town. (So, very minorly.)
9. Torqez <--Town.
10. Maxous <---Also town.
13. Pine
14. pappums rat <--I'm guessing town.
16. Tomie Uzumaki <--Scumz.
17. Hiraki <--Null. I'll look more into this.
18. Toon Fighter <--Town.
19. SomeRandomGuy <--Very slight town-read.
20. zMuffinMan <--Also a very slight town-read.

The gaps are people who I have trouble judging the content on, so far.

[mastin2]

(...Which means Pine should be removed from that list. )

[mastin2]

TOWN:
Toon
Maxous
Torquez
Pappums (?)
Prana
SRG
MuffinMan
Uprising

9/21 aint bad, eh? But still. That's only half* (alright, lil' more than half, but close!) the town. I need to clear some more people.

*21 players, 4 scum minimum, likely with more. 5 is a good number, for instance.

[mastin2]

Confirm vote.

No commentary on the rest of my list?

[mastin2]

malpascp looks town to me.
On the other hand, Tomie...

[mastin2]

Nope. I got a town-read from Muffin, albeit weak.

[mastin2]

TOWN:
Toon
Maxous
Torquez
Pappums
Hiraki
malpascp
Prana
SRG
MuffinMan
Uprising

Eleven out of 21. NOW we're talkin'. That's down to half the game as suspects. If I can cut it in half again...

[mastin2]

You know, having thought on it more, I've concluded hiplop to be town.
Very weak town, but still.
Twelve down; we have nine left to figure out.

[mastin2]

TOWN:
Toon
Maxous
Torquez
Pappums
Hiraki
malpascp
Prana
SRG
MuffinMan
Uprising
hiplop

PINE:
Pine
(He...is......

special

that way. )

NULL:
Those who haven't posted enough.

SCUM:
Tomie
edmund

[mastin2]

With the VCA reads does "town" mean 'town' or 'not maifa'.
How does potential third parties figure into it?

Third parties are considered town, since the only third party allowed in Normals is the SK, and standard Site Meta is for the SK to act as much like a vig as they can. IE, they try to lynch scum and vig scum. Hence, Honorary Townies.

I consider an SK lynch to have the stats of a mislynch, in fact. That is, no less scum on it than a normal lynch. Heck, if anything, I'd expect MORE scum to be on an SK lynch than normal.

Bowser's added to my town-list.

Spoiler: List

TOWN:
Toon
Maxous
Torquez
Pappums
Hiraki
malpascp
Prana
SRG
Bowser
MuffinMan
Uprising
hiplop

PINE:
Pine

NULL:
Those who haven't posted enough.

SCUM:
Tomie
edmund

That better?

[mastin2]

13.5/21, for those keeping track. Meaning, I'm down to 7.5 suspects. Two in the scum category, .5 in the Pine category, rest currently in the null.

I look forward to them posting more so I can figure them out.

[mastin2]

Nice. Three names to move into the town category!
ICE, Empking, and

Wall

Monitor.

That's down to 5.5, therefore, pretty much guaranteed to get the whole scumteam!

[mastin2]

TOWN:
Toon
Maxous
Torquez
Phoebus
Pappums
Hiraki
malpascp
Empking
Prana
GreyICE
SRG
Bowser
MuffinMan
Uprising
hiplop

PINE:
Pine

NULL:
Pine

SCUM:
Tomie
edmund
Vezok
Warrior
Pine

(Process of Elimination)

[mastin2]

Yeah. That seems right.

Tomie is scum.

[mastin2]

Hey mastin what exactly are you trying to accomplish with these "reads" of yours?

A scum lynch, duh.

[mastin2]

*Pappums, not Twisted. Sorry. I tend to have trouble with a lot of people in my mind.

[mastin2]

mastin2 ( 6 ) - Toon Fighter,

Tomie Uzumaki

, Maxous, malpascp, Phoebus, hiplop

Two scum minimum, bookmark it.

Let me give you a hint. Bold is Better.

How 'bout a vote, Grey?

[mastin2]

somerandomguy ( 2 ) - PranaDevil, warriormode
zMuffinMan ( 2 ) - somerandomguy,

edmund.angles

Hirarky ( 2 ) - paupam's rat, GreyICE

There's one scum here, too.

Let me reiterate my hint.

[mastin2]

mastin making lists this early bugs me a bit.

But I have a gut read on over half of his townreads as town.

I know that it's Matin's Ego who's posting those lists. Why do you believe half of his townreads are correct?
Not liking the 'But'.

Third parties are considered town, since the only third party allowed in Normals is the SK, and standard Site Meta is for the SK to act as much like a vig as they can. IE, they try to lynch scum and vig scum. Hence, Honorary Townies.

Normally, I'd suggest MD for this stuff. This time it's different as I don't want you to make yourself look foolish where everyone can see ._.
A SK is not a vig for a reason.

Still disappointed~ To help you out, why do you think I'm voting you?

If Mastin is town, Muffin and Bowser should be looked at.

One other player has caught my attention. But he has to wait for a bit as it might not be anything~

^Be honest with me.

Do you see anything in here which looks like it's coming from the mindset of a pro-town player?

...No?

Yeah, me neither.

Tomie needs more rope.

(Also, it's possible that there's more than one. I think between the (6) on me, and the three (2) wagons, there's 2-3 scum, but likely not four, so one of the two effective six wagons contains two scum, the other contains one.)

[mastin2]

Ah, I love those unfamiliar with my style of play...

[mastin2]

(For instance, SRG solidified my town-read.)

[mastin2]

Like Tomie I did not like Bowser's post:
Bowser was wishy-washy on the subject of Mastin's reads.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Bowser

@mastin: Do you mean that your early list was a type of reaction fishing?

@Tomie: Why does Mastin being town have anything to do with zMuffin and Bowser's alignment?

Not seeing the town in here.

Anyone care to shed a light onto any way this post was town?

I see nothing but scum in there.

Uprising, on the other hand, looks quite town.

[mastin2]

Also, a question directed at anyone, how many scum tend to be in 21p mafia games?

4-5, I calculated. 4 gets a little low (19%; still possible), 5 is 23%. 6 is theoretically possible (28%), but honestly, I wouldn't expect that unless it's multifaction with 3 each.

So, most likely, 5. Among which, is Tomie.

[mastin2]

Yup.

Still not seeing anything from Tomie which says anything other than "scum".

[mastin2]

Yep

Please, enlighten me. I am not seeing it.

Where you reaction fishing?

Yes, and no.
Yes, I was looking for reactions.

No, that doesn't mean my list was not serious. It was dead serious, still is.

Hmmmmmm, nah. I have a gut scum read on Hikari, and I don't feel as certain about Tomie as you.

[REDACTED - Pondering Something About This Comment; will bring up later]

[mastin2]

Prana, please get off of Torquez. Torq is actually one of my strongest town-reads right now. Additionally, if you think there's at least one scum on my wagon, do vote inside of it. Not out.

I just find it strange making a 5-person bandwagon right at the beginning of the game on a player that doesn't seem to have done that much to deserve it.

Actually, it's six. (Half way to a lynch.) Not five. Maxous unvoted me earlier.

[mastin2]

Annnnnd...the other part?

[mastin2]

hiplop ( 2 ) - Maxous, Torqez
Bowser ( 2 ) - Uprising, edmund.angles
Hirarky ( 2 ) - paupam's rat, GreyICE
paupam's rat ( 2 ) - Hirarky, warriormode
^Still say there's 1-2 scum in there.

[mastin2]

Too distracted right now. Will return when this game makes sense to me.

[mastin2]

I'm actually surprised tomie's still on mastin. From the sounds of it, there's more reason to believe I'm scum than mastin.

There's a reason for that.

It's called opportunism.

Hurry, if you vote Tomie first, it won't be considered OMGUS!

[mastin2]

Yes. To no end. You hold a world record, Pine.

Nobody else can be in four categories at the same time.

(Town [based off of the "reverse my initial read on Pine and it'll be correct" in combination with his Tomie vote], Scum [Process of Elimination pointed his way], Null [in both town and scum], and Pine. )

[mastin2]

Not a scumread. (You hadn't even posted yet, Pine!) Just process of elimination. Game of this size, five scum, POE had you as one of the five.

[mastin2]

For the record, if you call me town, you too can earn a free pass into my town reads. It's that simple. Do it.

@zMuffin: Seriously?

Seriously? You see this guy as town?

[mastin2]

Also, don't think I announced it here:

V/LA from Friday until Monday

.

[mastin2]

Hiraki, this has to be AT LEAST the third game in a row I've seen you hunt after a person with a 2011 join date.

I think you're town, of course.

But honestly. Is "new player" synonymous with "scumclaim" for you?

[mastin2]

Maxous, did you learn nothing about me last game?

[mastin2]

GreyICE's 'logic': People using meta are scum. (Or if not scum, policy lynches.) You used meta to clear me. (Faulty, by the way, since I picked up the tactic from Nacho when we were scum in Outdoorsmen Mafia 2. ) Therefore, you're scum. (Or if not scum, at least voteworthy.)

This is a fair assessment, no?

[mastin2]

Kinda back. Desktop rather than laptop, dead tired, distracted right now, quite behind.

Also, utilizing meta assessments is PART of effective scumhunting, so GI's signature is myopic bullshit.

1: Could you elaborate on your viewpoint? Just for me.
2: Do you think GreyICE's signature makes him scum?

Do you not see what's scummy with hiplop?

Ish.

If you use gut as a reason for a vote, there is a 100% guarantee that you are probably not town.

You called my lists in your hiplop case town. Correct me if I am wrong about this.

If I pointed to a number of those reads and said it was gut, would that reverse your read on me and make me scum?

Spoiler: Unnecessary

I'll join the mastin wagon:
UNVOTE: BowserVOTE: Mastin2

Mastin is scummy because he doesn't commit to anything concrete - all he does is to slap up a post and say, "See how scummy it is!". Then everyone can read into it what they want and there is no crap-logic to tear apart.

And if he's town, it is no great loss to lose a player that pulls a list out of his ass and then convinces himself it's true.

To say this vote has town motivation is extremely laughable. Pure scum motivation. I could quote it sentence by sentence and show you exactly why, but considering this catchup wall is already a bit long, I'll give you the main two reasons: 1--OMGUS.
2--Bandwagoning on an "easy" target. (Hooooooooooh boy, is he gonna get a surprise... I love people who don't know my style of play. )

I say unnecessary due to the explanation here. It doesn't give ALL of my reasons, but it gives enough to convey the general idea of why edmund is scum.

MASTIN HASN'T ASKED ANY SERIOUS QUESTIONS YET!

Oh, really? You think I was not serious?

Also,

GreyICE:

do you still think Pine is scum? (You voted him earlier for the meta.) What do you think of his explanation? (Scarily close to that of my own. ) Give your current thoughts on Pine, right now.
Compare him to Hiraki--are they both scum?

[/will be working more when he has his notes]

[mastin2]

Right. So if I said I saw something which changed my read based on gut, would I be scum?

[mastin2]

You know the point of my post.

Yup, indeed.

[mastin2]

You know what I meant, Grey. Pine, the PLAYER.

Additionally, you answered the bolded as a joke. (I want serious.) The rest, unbolded, you left unanswered.

do you still think Pine is scum? (You voted him earlier for the meta.) What do you think of his explanation?

Give your current thoughts on Pine, right now.

Compare him to Hiraki--are they both scum?

[mastin2]

So, GreyICE, you think Pine's town, now? I'll give you that, but that STILL leaves this unanswered:

What do you think of his explanation?

That, I do not see from you. What do you think, of his explanation about his view on meta?

[mastin2]

And what is your opinion on Grey's read on you, Pine?

[mastin2]

Also,

Also, utilizing meta assessments is PART of effective scumhunting, so GI's signature is myopic bullshit.

1: Could you elaborate on your viewpoint? Just for me.

[mastin2]

(What is it with you two and only answering half of the questions I give you?)

[mastin2]

Meta is a tool for scumhunting. Pretty simple statement.

Alright. I'll try to make it more clear.
How do you use it for scumhunting?
How is it an effective tool for you?
How do you incorporate it into your reads?
How reliable have you found it to be?
What do you think of GreyICE's hatred of it?
What is your Meta process? (That is, how do you obtain these Meta Reads?)

GI has an opinion on me? I missed it in his arboreal ramblings.

Yes. Those WERE his opinion on you; read them. And explain to me what you think of them, now that you know they're there.

[mastin2]

Additionally,

GI's signature is myopic bullshit.

WHY?

[mastin2]

I've concluded Tomie has to either be an alt of someone who's played with me multiple times, or has done a fair amount of research into me.

Tomie continues to be scum, though.

As does edmund.

Have access to my notes, now, so I'll be working a lot.

[mastin2]

Nice, new page.

And here... GreyIce is quite obviously pointing out that meta is shit, and shouldn't be used. Because people who don't really pay attention to meta wont notice things anyway, and likely aren't even worrying about playing the same way every time. However, people who ARE thinking about meta would also be able to change up how they place to match a town meta every time anyway. Thus, following meta leads to mislynching town more often than it leads to lynching scum. Which is a fair point to make. Thus, meta is pointless to follow.

Plus, some people's meta changes based on role. You wouldn't expect someone with a VT role this game to play exactly the same if they have a cop role in the next one. Thus, while they're both town roles, they're different roles entirely. So if you've played with someone for 4 games with them as a VT, and suddenly they're playing differently, you lynch them based on meta, only to find you've just offed the town cop.

Also, it's the worst form of confirmation bias. People read a player, and think 'he's probably scum, lemme check meta.' Then they go read a random town game and a random scum game, and decide that he's doing X and Y, which he did in the scum game, and isn't doing Z which he did in the town game.

Basically, I'm just going to lynch anyone who tries to use meta as their entire argument, or who argues they're town because of meta.

^I want to see more from Pine on this.

Vote: Pine

As I promised.

^And this.

More than, "wait, what?"

I think you slippo.

Do you think Pine is scum, Hiraki?

Spoiler: Edmund

Damnit, you are joking, zMuffin. Otherwise it would be too damn scummy.

I'm wondering if anyone can explain how this is a Town-Motivated or Town-Toned post, because I see scum in both of those.

I'll join the mastin wagon:
UNVOTE: BowserVOTE: Mastin2

Seventh voter of me, sixth on the wagon at the time. (Bandwagoning.)

Blatant OMGUS.

Abandoning a previous scumread with no foreshadowing.

List goes on.

Mastin is scummy because he doesn't commit to anything concrete.

Pretty much the polar opposite of what I have been doing, sticking hard to my reads.

all he does is to slap up a post and say, "See how scummy it is!".

Strawmanning.

And if he's town, it is no great loss to lose a player that pulls a list out of his ass and then convinces himself it's true.

Policy lynching,
Lack of true scumhunting.

Pappum's 205 adds some more points, as well as elaborating on some of the above. Specifically,

You try to exonerate yourself from responsibility by making it out as though it would not matter if he flips town because supposedly he is a hinderance to town either way. That is a classic scum move, and you are now my top scumread.

^That.

I don't see what that has to do with me.

You joined the (leading by one vote) weak wagon which had weak-to-no reasons for the votes. It has

everything

to do with you.

I didn't mind the list, since I expected it to be a discussion starter. But Mastin has later claimed to be dead serious.

And you ignore the fact that I've said it's both. Explain to me how they're mutually exclusive, please. Explain to me how I can't do all three of (1:) starting discussion, (2:) getting reactions, and (3:) still be dead-serious.

You can't, because I was (and said as much in-thread) multitasking.

That is bull-shit, he hasn't given any reasons. Nor has he questioned anyone.

Doubly false statement, as I have hinted at reasons for anyone paying close attention and reading between the lines. (I'm a master of the subtle. ) And I have asked plenty of questions to others--and had done so before that post.

What he does is to get everyone to reconsider a post from a scum position.

1: Not really. I ask people to legitimately give me an answer as to how it could be town. This has multiple purposes, most of which should be obvious.

2: Even if I was, that would be scummy...
...How?

Asking people to see from my viewpoint is very frequently employed in one of the most fundamental tools of a scumhunter:

Building Cases.

It casts suspicion but makes sure he doesn't say anything he has to defend later.

Oh? Then why am I being attacked for it now instead of, oh, say, Day Two or Three? If it truly was something I'd never need to defend later by your logic, it shouldn't have gotten as much suspicion as it has, now, should it have? The read is out there for all to see. There's nothing hidden about the suspicion, nothing which would be invisible.

Mastin is scummy, but I don't pretend like I'm sure Mastin is scum, so in voting I must also consider the mastin-town possibility. Even if he is not scum, he is a hazard.

Yup. Not scumhunting. Policy voting.

Maybe two years ago, I'd accept policy votes like this to be from town. (I WAS worse back then--blatantly a VI.) Nowadays, I've gotten better, and really, there's no excuse for trying.

@Bowser: Damnit, reasons! tell us why you think I'm scummy and the mastin wagon is shit.

This is not the Town Tone way to ask for reasons. This is blatantly the scum way of going through things.

@mastin: How could I think it would be easy to get you lynched when I've seen the massive beating Tomie and Hiplop have taken for suggesting the same?

Tomie didn't receive flak for suggesting I was a liability to the town. Hiplop didn't receive flak for suggesting I was a liability to the town. Tomie received flak because of Tomie's effective scumclaim reactions to me. Hiplop recieved flak for the apparent contradiction on his stance.

They're not scum(my) for being on my lynch. They're not under pressure because they thought I was an easy mislynch. They're under pressure for doing scum(my) things which aren't really that related to them being on me.

You, however, are scum, for the multiple reasons I've outlined above.

Guess you've got a lot of voting to do, don't you agree?. Anyway, I disagree that using meta is bad.
Though some players *Hi, Pine* need to learn how to use it correctly~

Oh, totally forgot about this.

GreyICE:

What do you think of Tomie's stance on this?
NOW is Tomie more scum than before?

Vote Toonfighter

Who do you feel is more likely to be scum between Toon and Hiraki, Grey?

And, heck. While we're in the process of asking so. many. reads. from. you. Let's go all-out.

Give a full suspect list. Include nulls who have a scum lean or go in-between. (Flip-flops.)


And this is just my warm-up.

[mastin2]

Let's make page twelve "Page Wall". Hiraki and chk, both hurry and get it onto this page, so that we won't have to have three pages in a row of walls!

[mastin2]

Alright, Grey. You answered the question of Toon/Hiraki well enough. ("They're both so obv-scum it's painful to watch them not get more votes." Is that a fair interpretation?)

That still leaves these unanswered.

Guess you've got a lot of voting to do, don't you agree?. Anyway, I disagree that using meta is bad.
Though some players *Hi, Pine* need to learn how to use it correctly~

GreyICE:

What do you think of Tomie's stance on this?
NOW is Tomie more scum than before?

And, heck. While we're in the process of asking so. many. reads. from. you. Let's go all-out.

Give a full suspect list. Include nulls who have a scum lean or go in-between. (Flip-flops.)

You've given me two names you think are scum. (Hiraki and Toon.) There's likely five scum in this game.

Who else besides those two, do you suspect?

I think I can find a better place for my vote: UNVOTE: Mastin2
Bowser is still a good lynch-candidate VOTE: Bowser

"Oh, I guess voting Mastin was a bad idea, and he was right about me abandoning my Bowser read with no foreshadowing at all. Maybe if I go back to Bowser, he won't notice?" (Nope. It's quite blatant.)

[mastin2]

He wants to know if you're town or not.

^That. There's more to it than just that, though. I'll elaborate when I get the answers I want out of everyone I've asked questions for.

[mastin2]

Grey. Don't make me employ the "reversal of my initial reads" on you.
Guess what my initial read on you was?

(Hint: it wasn't a scumread. And you can't reverse null-reads.)

[mastin2]

...Soon isn't good enough. :/

[mastin2]

Also, the Bowser Wagon needs to die.

Of my town-reads? You know, the super-awesome-ones which are usually correct?

Bowser's one of four names on that super-mega-town-read list.

MuffinMan
Torquez
Bowser
Maxous

They're all town. Trust me on this.

[mastin2]

Mod:

Speaking of Torquez, that's another name who hasn't posted since the sixth, with it currently being the twelvth (well, by my timezone--it's the thirteenth in most parts of the world right now).

Prod Torquez, please?

[mastin2]

No foreshadowing on a switch OFF of BOWSER.
Not no foreshadowing on a switch onto me.

And, yes, you were policy lynching me, because you said that regardless of my aligment, I'd be a hindrance to the town. In other words, policy lynch.

Bowser is quite frankly confirmed town as far as I'm concerned.

[mastin2]

STOP. LYNCHING. HIPLOP.

[mastin2]

HIPLOP IS NOT THE LYNCH TODAY.

That should be Tomie. Or, heck. Let's say you don't see Tomie as scum.

THEN HOW ABOUT EDMUND?!?

[mastin2]

Bah. Tomie doesn't need a case. Just too obvious.

Here's a deal. Nobody vote Hiplop and all those on (...with the possible exception of Hiraki, since I've given up trying to convince him to go elsewhere ) get off--preferably to Tomie/Edmund, but other suspects (NOT on the list of super-mega-townreads I gave, so no Bowser/Muffin/Maxous/Torquez votes, either!) are fine with me--and after that, I'll build a Tomie case.

[mastin2]

Put bluntly.

Unvote hiplop.
Don't go to Maxous/Bowser/Muffin/Torquez. (Heck, Unvote Bowser/Muffin, too.)
(Preferably go to Tomie/Edmund, but that's optional.)

Case from me.
Go to Tomie/Edmund.
(NOT optional.)

[mastin2]

Claim: 1-shot Lie Detector

. I used it on 182, and the mod told me hiplop was not lying.

[mastin2]

Hiplop didn't say "I'm town" anywhere. Believe me, I checked. But it was good enough for me. It told me that Hiplop was legitimately scumhunting, therefore, was town. Theoretically, he could be scum saying two town players looked more scummy, but I find that scenario extremely doubtful compared to the far more likely conclusion--hiplop is town.

[mastin2]

That's how.

It's pretty self-explanatory, when you think about it. Neat ability, and it's perfectly augmented by my preferred style of scumhunting. It was essentially a one-shot "Detect Motive", with the result on Hiplop STRONGLY indicating, "not scum motivated".

[mastin2]

Eh, I had my reasons not to.

[mastin2]

There is nothing in the normal rules against that role, Grey. It's an investigation-type role. It's also quite a weak ability.

[mastin2]

(A weak ability I happened to use well, but still, it's not that strong compared to, say, Cop or Watcher.)

◦Those affecting a role's alignment (no Cults).
◦Anything which significantly affects the core mechanic of majority/plurality lynches (no Kingmaker, for example).
◦Anything resolving with a random element, with the exception of missed night choices. It must be included in the public ruleset if you are resolving night choices in this way.
◦Post Restrictions (other than those included in the ruleset, such as "No quoting your Role PM").
◦Lying to the players, including False Role Reveals and "Scum Masons".
◦Night action redirection (no Bus Driver, Lightning Rod, Nexus, or Redirector).
◦Alignments other than Mafia/Werewolf, Pro-Town, and Serial Killer (no Survivor, Lyncher, or Jester).

Explain to me which of these rules a Lie Detector claim violates, Grey.

It doesn't. No alignment change, no lynch modification, no element of randomness, not a posting restriction, not lying to the players, no redirection, not third party.

[mastin2]

Just because it isn't whitelisted doesn't mean it's not possible. It's not blacklisted, Grey; it's in the game.

I asked the mod about it, and it is based on what the person believes. (Essentially, Lie Detector cannot detect an untruth the subject is not aware is false.)

And I used it with that knowledge to realize Hiplop had a town Motive in mind.

[mastin2]

So basically you want to puppet master the town and then you'll answer what should be a VERY EASY QUESTION?

Question's easy. Answer's not. I can ask you a really complex math question in thirty seconds. Does that mean the answer can be given in an equal amount of time? Nope, it'll almost certainly take far longer than that to come up with the answer.

...Not the best metaphor, but it conveys the general idea.

I don't get how he got "hiplop is conftown" on a post talking about a couple scum reads pretty vaguely.

Hiplop's not in my list of four names, you'll note. I think Hiplop is town. He's not confirmed town.

How the hell would the mod be able to tell if that post is full of crap or not?

it is based on what the person believes. (Essentially, Lie Detector cannot detect an untruth the subject is not aware is false.)

Hiplop wasn't lying about his scum-reads-->hiplop is far more likely to be town.

[mastin2]

Gimme another 72 hours or so, and I'll be able to hand you the entire scumteam based off of multiple factors which have transpired in the LAST 72 hours.

In other words, within a week (six days, actually), I'll have nailed the entire scumteam. I'm on to them, now.

[mastin2]

Ah, this game. Too effing easy.

It's like, the scum aren't even trying to cover themselves up. Like they honestly think I'm not a threat. Like they're openly speaking to me in-thread and trying to get lynched.

[mastin2]

Right.

So GreyICE.

Has resorted.

To wanting a Policy Lynch on me.

[mastin2]

No.

Not today, not ever.

Hiplop's not scum.

[mastin2]

/Desktop away from laptop.

But put bluntly, I've found them.

The scumteam.

I'll post a list when I get on my laptop. Reasons can come after that, but you know I'm right.

(I'm not just "mastin". I'm THE Mastin. I'M THE

FALSE

PROFIT! NOW

BOW DOWN TO MY MIGHT!

)

(Marathon game reference. 9P Vengefuls are fun.)

[mastin2]

TOWN:

MuffinMan
Torquez
Bowser
Maxous

hiplop
Toon
Phoebus

LIKELY TOWN:
Vezok
Hiraki

Pine

DA REST:

malpascp
Prana/Mint
SRG
Uprising/chk
Warrior

SCUM:

Tomie
Edmund

GreyICE

Empking
Pappums

No. I'm NOT wrong about these reads. There might be ONE read in here which is off, but that's pretty much it. Sheep me for the win.

Of course, you'll probably want reasons for these reads. I'll give them, but quite frankly, I shouldn't need to. I'm town. I'm a good scumhunter. I pick up on certain tells which give me the scumteam. And, dang it, hiplop being put to L-3 is the biggest fail I've ever seen.

The reasons will come tomorrow, though, since I'm recovering from the Midnight Showing. (The careful observer will likely note a few things already, though, which are obvious. Anyone who has been in enough games to realize my general playstyle--for instance--will probably be able to figure out why Pine and GreyICE are italicized.)

[mastin2]

(...Actually, bad idea to promise it tomorrow. That's the day I'll be packing for my Vacation to Oregon.

But likely within 72 hours--maybe not every single one of those, but the ones which are easy and/or important.)

[mastin2]

423-424 is a perfect example of why both Edmund and Empking are scum. That's EXACTLY the kind of thing which screams to me, "SCUM INTERACTION!"

But I've got reasons well beyond that, of course. Just a bit preoccupied, right now. Will begin typing it all out.

[mastin2]

It just is? :/

I'm good at giving reasons for my reads. (Interaction, Motive, Tone, etc.) Not explaining the logic behind said reasons.

[mastin2]

Admittedly, my town-read on Muffin started by looking at my scumread of Edmund. This did not give off the tone of a bus, at all. (And was quite scummy--you'll see why in a full edmund case.)

The next thing which solidified Muffin as town for me was Maxous's doubt combined with Toon's similar inquiry.

All of this admittedly without Muffin having actually posted. But once Muffin does, the town-tells start droppin' right and left.

I am amazing at giving off town tells. Unintentionally or intentionally.

mastin gets to be town for recognising this.

And phoebus is scum

VOTE: Phoebus

The humor gives off a town tone. Muffin immediately locks onto Phoebus's very weak bandwagoning vote, opening up immediately with legitimate scumhunting.

When he gives the real reason I'm town, he gives logic which can only come from town. Thinking I'm town for saying I Blackmailed the mod for a Town PM?

What kind of scum uses a reason like that? He also thought my elaborate lists were town-tells, and at that stage in the game (when there were clearly people expressing a distaste in it--people like Toon, Maxous, Tomie, etc.) going against the opinion in the thread was a very town move.

Muffin was one of the strong hiplop interrogators. That last link also contains looking into Edmund and Tomie, which shows an interest in them.

I wasn't kidding when I said Muffin was bleeding town-tells across his posts.

Tomie's inquiry to Muffin definitely isn't bussing, and nor could Muffin's response. It had a town tone, was doing legitimate scumhunting, and had purely a town Motive in it.

I could link/quote to you the whole Muffin/Tomie thing on Page Four (eh, maybe in the Tomie case later), but it's quite pointless--Muffin became obv-town by that point.

Edmund comes into the conversation, and says something which can only come from scum talking to town. (More on this in the full edmund case.)

Muffin's vote was still justified, due to Phoebus's scummy post. (Note, however, that it's scummy, but not scum.)

More tomie stuff, to convince you that Muffin's town.

For the record, if you call me town, you too can earn a free pass into my town reads. It's that simple. Do it.

Scum might do this all the time, sure. (I know for a fact that I have a horrible tendency as scum to call my defenders town. ) But you NEVER

announce

that in-thread!

It's either the dumbest scum move ever (no. It's not), or it's a confirmation that Muffin's town. Highly unusual town, quite interesting, and I think a potentially-very-skilled player, but town.


...And reading Muffin all at once, I get the distinct impression Muffin's similar to me. (Crud. That either strengthens my town-read by 75% or means my read on Muffin is completely invalid, AKA, "Pine Syndrome". )

Overall, Muffin's bleeding town-tells, has EXTREMELY favorable interactions, shows a consistent town Motive, and displays a pure town Tone. So unless Muffin's this game's Pine (...despite Pine himself being in the game ), he's town, one of my strongest town-reads.

[mastin2]

Next up, Torquez. That's easy, since Torquez doesn't have that much in the thread. Personal town-tell, both in that Torquez didn't post a standard confirm (he added the wave at the end), but also greeted someone in-thread. The combination gave off a distinct town impression to me.

Torquez's entry post contained a lot of pure-town stuff, too. An eagerness to start playing, combined with a late RV, and actually being the first to think of the "list illusion" thing about hiplop. (Someone else [forget who] copied that later.)

hiplop ( 2 ) - Maxous, Torqez
Bowser ( 2 ) - Uprising,

edmund.angles
Hirarky ( 2 ) - paupam's rat, GreyICE

paupam's rat ( 2 ) - Hirarky, warriormode
There's two to three scum in there, of course. (Four (2) votes-->single (8) vote.) Since {Edmund, Pappums, GreyICE} are my scum suspects, this is evidence supporting the rest of the list being town.

Empking's (a scumread of mine, mind you) hatred of Torquez pretty much solidifies Torquez as town.

Torquez might have the least content of my town-reads, but he's definitely one of the strongest town-reads.

[mastin2]

Oh, and in case you didn't get the hint,

V/LA 7/16 to 7/22

.

I'll have minimal (due to inconvenience) access to my notes, my work will be slow (due to connection speed), and I might be a little incoherent (due to the late time I can use the internet), but it shouldn't be a setback for me writing cases. (I'm barely using my notes--it's mostly in-thread stuff.)

[mastin2]

Pine, Vezok's never played with me before.

[mastin2]

Not since I played. (Technically, there's Lovers Mafia, but I don't count that as a game of mine

, and Vezok was dead by the time I replaced in, anyway.)

[mastin2]

Apologies for the delay. I wanted to use the internet the moment I got here. (Which was approximately 22 hours ago.) But, uh, the phoneline was down. Kinda hard to use the internet when you don't have any satelite, cable, dial-up, etc.

But, hey. Here now. I'll see if I can get some sort of crazy interface going where I access my notes while simultaneously posting here. Involving some combination of my (internet accessless) laptop and this (internet access) shiney new desktop I'm borrowing right now. (I have the order which I planned to give my cases on in my notes, for instance.)

[mastin2]

Hiplop. Bowser. Toon.

How many mislynches must I shoot down before the town gets it right?!?

[mastin2]

...Yeah. Preeeeeeeeety sure now that GreyICE is indeed scum.

[mastin2]

Yeah. I agree ICE is trolling.
I just think that this particular kind of trolling makes Grey scum.

[mastin2]

Not alone, but combined with other stuff...

[mastin2]

Eh?

I've made my opinions quite clear. Refer to my list.

If you're referring to the lack of cases, it's because quite frankly, I'm busy elsewhere. Don't worry. I'm wide awake. I'll likely have nothing to do BUT post in this game eventually, when I run out of excuses.
(Vacation on a slow desktop connection leaves me with far fewer distractions than normal.)

[mastin2]

You guys really are a pain, you know that, right?

Bowser wagon?

I mean, come on. Guy's confirmed town.

I really do hate just how many mislynches I have to shut down per game. It's like I'm the only voice of logic in a crowd of bloodthirsty, trigger-happy lunatics who want to lynch everyone.

Oh, wait.

(But seriously. I'm averaging at least three mislynches shut down a day.)

[mastin2]

Neruz seems like a smart guy. Will likely postpone the deadline a little.

Which'd give me the time I need to go all Awesomeness on You and prove why lots of the votes goin' out to people right now are mislynches.

[mastin2]

So. You think Bowser and Toon are scum.
That's it?

We have five.

Bowser and Toon are easy mislynch targets. (As is hiplop.)

[mastin2]

Sometimes?

Yeah.

This time?

Nope.

SCUM:
Tomie
Edmund

GreyICE

Empking
Pappums

Within those names are who we are lynching.

[mastin2]

But what are you going to do if he flips town?

Lynch Pine. GreyICE-Pine interactions were not townVtown, hence why I tried to encourage them further. The fact that I was unable to do so only solidified this as true.

hiplop ( 6 ) - Maxous, Torqez, Toon Fighter,

paupam's rat

, vezokpiraka, malpascp
Bowser ( 6 ) - MintKitten,

edmund.angles, Empking

, zMuffinMan, Hirarky, chkflip

For once, GreyICE is correct--these are both town lynches. Bolded are my scum picks from both.

Lets start actually contributing if you dont mind?

Note the sig. V/LA. I'll be pwning when it's my birthday and onwards. (23rd.)

Hiplop, Bowser. Both town.

Wagons, need to die.

[mastin2]

Dunno.

One mislynch,
Other mislynch.

I quite frankly can't see the reasoning on either, since they're both town.

[mastin2]

You guys need to learn how to read Bowser's post. Bowser did NOT say he didn't have a good feeling about my reads. He said they bugged him--and that he liked half of the ones I gave. He sheeped me, following through on what he said. He pushes Edmund, exactly as a pro-town player would in that situation, not as a scum player would. He furthers this edmund suspicion.
Then, he unfortunately gets hit with V/LA.
And continues to push Edmund as scum.

Bowser shows consistent scumhunting, consistent town motive, consistent town town, consistently positive interactions. He's town.

Also, I realize many players despise meta. But how about general playstyle?

Keep in mind, Bowser is

CSL

. This is just how he plays. I've seen people call CSL a VI in MANY games in the past--at least half a dozen I've read across the site.

He's a ripe mislynch, but he's town.

[mastin2]

And the lynch on him makes me a sad moglin.

He.
Is.
Town.

[mastin2]

Unvote

RE: zMuffinMan: You have not been on this site long enough to see how I play. mastin has. Therein lies the difference.

An edmund lynch is not going through today, which SICKENS me. So we settle for second best.

Vote: Tomie

chkflip, your post is a wall. I refuse to read it. Give me a tl;dr on it. Also, see RE: zMuffinMan

Seriously. There is nothing scum in this post.
Absolutely nothing.

[mastin2]

Scummy?

It's a stretch, but sure. I'm in a generous mood right now, so I'll give you that.

Scum?

THAT, on the other hand, is a no.


Bowser is town.

Stop wasting my time, and the time of the town, trying to mislynch him.

[mastin2]

Bowser's V/LA, which is annoying.

But still, town.

I'm getting good at telling the difference between town-V/LA and scum-V/LA. Bowser gives none of the warning signs to make me think the latter, and is giving me plenty of reasons to think the former.

[mastin2]

Has the votecount changed?

[mastin2]

Yeah.

That was not scum OMGUS'ing, either.

That was town.
Misguided town, obviously not in the best mood, town, but definitely town. No scum in it.

[mastin2]

Glad someone else saw the obvOMGUS in that vote.

Obv-OMGUS? Yes, painfully so. There's no way to miss it.
Scum-OMGUS?
No, it wasn't.

It was distinctly a town-OMGUS.
Muffin--will get to it.

[mastin2]

Yeah.

Pure.

Undilluted.
Town.

[mastin2]

Why does this worry me Mastin.

Because you're terrified I have a post in the backburner that I'm keeping secret from you all and that I'm going to unleash it on you and completely nail you in one swift motion?

Heh, I wish, but truthfully, it's because I was on Vacation, away from my notes, and therefore lacked the motivation to work on cases, so just posted my reads.

Bowser's defense was bad, but I dont necessarily think that he is scum because of it.

I'll admit:
Originally, Pappums was scum by Process of Elimination.

But stuff like this?

Is legitimately scummy, sets off all my alarms, SCREAMING, "THIS. WAS. PURE. SCUM. POSTING."

Mastin2.

You're wrong.

Hiraki.
I'm tired of sucking.
I'm tired of self-doubt.
I'm tired of making mistakes.

So I told myself one day, "alright. I'll stop doing that. I'll be pure win."

And I've been refining my methods ever since then. There have been a lot of hiccups, a lot of missteps on this road to being a Good Scumhunter, but eventually, I did manage to get there. I've achieved a level of play not matching anything I've done before. I might not be perfect, but I'm dang-well more accurate than you are, right now.

I am no longer the mediocre-at-best player you knew me to be.

I am the guy, who knows what he's doing,
And knows for a FACT that neither Bowser nor Hiplop are scum.

I am not wrong. Not this time.


And now that I'm back?

I'm going to prove it to you all.

[mastin2]

Hiraki.

If you wagon Pappums, I'lk join you.

[mastin2]

TOWN:

As a birthday present, please don't lynch Hiplop, Bowser, or Toon for me, 'kay?

(About to start.)

[mastin2]

Unvote, VOTE: pappums rat.

That's

Code: Select all

[b]Unvote, [vote]pappums rat[/vote].[/b]

Make it happen.

(Celebrating in RL right now, will respond with more later.)

[mastin2]

Bowser's defense was bad, but I dont necessarily think that he is scum because of it. IMO there are plenty more people who should be lynched over Bowser at this point.

UNVOTE: VOTE: bowser

5 to deadlin4e and it makes sense

^ Bad vote. After expressing no suspicion of Bowser beforehand, and with a Bowser wagon starting, I see this as an attempt to bolster a counter-wagon to his own wagon. WHY IS HE NOT LYNCHED YET FFS.

Not a good post; not at all. I'd be willing to vote pappums; his plays been rubbing me the wrong way most of the game, and his recent play is solifying that.

VOTE: pappums rat

Fine son, WHAT ABOUT THE BOWSER WAGON SPECIFICALLY MADE SENSE TO YOU. YOU ARE ONE OF THE VAGUEST SCUMMERS I HAVE EVER KNOWN. YOU HAVE TO HAVE SOME REASONING BEHIND VOTING SOMEONE, AND YOU DONT GIVE ANY. FUCKS SAKE. YOU KNOW WHAT I THINK IS FUNNY? HOW YOU HAVE CONSISTENTLY FOUND THE PEOPLE WHO THINK YOU ARE SCUM TO BE SCUMMY. (I.E. HIRAKI AND MYSELF)

Conveniently enough, PR ninja'd me, making it look like this post is what caused the switch.

It's not hard to see why.

(Pappums is living, breathing scum right now.)

[mastin2]

lewarcher82, to answer about

Spoiler: meta

I'm town so freakin' often that you'll find it in pretty much every single completed game in New York. Only in one was I scum, when I pretty much specifically asked the mod for a scum PM. (Yes, really. I asked Demon to make me scum, I was made scum. Mainly, it was because I thought the game made no sense from a town's perspective and knew if I got a town PM, I'd be a bumbling, stumbling idiot. Which ended up happening anyway, unfortunately. )
Oh, and Outdoorsmen Mafia 2, as the hydra Calcifer. Was scum there, too, but Hydra games are kinda hard to get a Meta on one half of. (Especially since a lot of posts which looked like Nacho were really me, and some which looked like me were really Nacho. I'm good at faking being the other half of a hydra. )

If you want games outside of New York,
-Two newbie games. 1048 (run by Ald), I was town and it's where I got my View On Cops prototype from. 1024 or something like that (Minimalist, run by RedCoyote), was my first game on my return, and (coincidentally matching with 688, my first game ever) I got a scum PM. (I was replaced due to having no internet for a week, unfortunately. :/) Our mod played in that one. (Fun times!)
-One completed Mini Game. Powerrox's mini. Don't ask me for a number. I was the bodyguard.

...And that's all my completed games. New York (seriously, I'm everywhere in New York) is where I'd focus if you want to meta me.

If you want more than just this, I've multiple times posted a complete ramble on my past games, with links to them. It's well over 40 by this point in my career, not counting my alt.

Additionally, I can link you to all of my recent Marathon Games. I know that at least three or four players present knew me from my Marathon Play before this game began, so that's a nice way to meta me, too.

[mastin2]

I can see Paupaumscum after those past few new posts.

Well?

[mastin2]

The idea was, indeed, to get you on Pappums. It's the best lynch you'll get me to agree on.

[mastin2]

You're not getting me on Bowser, Hiplop, or Toon.

[mastin2]

Nah. I only intimidate scum.

[mastin2]

Why wait for tomorrow what you can do today?

You don't want to be a procrastinator, do you, Hiraki?

[mastin2]

Yeah, edmund and Pappums are scum. Pappums first. We've got, like, five or so of the needed. That's about half-way; we can do it!

[mastin2]

No. Pappums.

[mastin2]

Hiraki, are you open to the possibility of Empking scum?

I realize an Emp lynch aint happening today, but you willin' to listen to him being scum for future days?

[mastin2]

Speaking of unanswered questions, Hiraki, you didn't answer me about Empking.
He's out of wagon-range today, but for future days, you think he's scum? (And/or are you open to the possibility of him being scum?)

[mastin2]

3. PranaDevil MintKitten (Awaiting Replacement)
5. Bowser (Awaiting Replacement)
9. Torqez (Awaiting Replacement)
13. Pine (Awaiting Replacement)
16. Tomie Uzumaki (Awaiting Replacement)

...

Mod:

I think you need to suspend the deadline until we have some more replacements. FIVE replacements pending?!? We need at least three of those slots before we go into night, preferably all of them. (And even then, they'd need time to catch up, too.)

[mastin2]

Hey, Bowser.

I know that, well, you're generally considered a VI.

But can you do extensive scumhunting?

You're town, you're being wagoned, and now the town knows that they won't be getting a replacement for your slot.

I realize that your style is shorter posts (mainly one-liners), and I get the distinct impression you're an extremely impulsive player who follows their heart, doing whatever the heck they want to. (Correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.)

But in this town, apparently people like a dumb little thing called "logic", which is commonly expressed in things they call "walls". You might not have done it that often, but do you think you can do it this game?

[mastin2]

In particular, a wall on the offensive would be nice. Defensive walls for some reason make people think you're scum. Dunno why; they just do.

Take your time, if need be. Preferably the wall'd have five suspects, but if you can manage to make an extensive wall about so much as two, you'll probably impress these guys.

[mastin2]

I.
So.
Wish.
There.
Was.
Support.
For.
An.
Edmund.
Lynch.

It's kinda sad. Pappums is the only scum even close to being lynched, against three other rival (town) bandwagons. Empking, Edmund...they're both being allowed to run free.

[mastin2]

Well, obviously it wouldn't be a permanent suspension of the deadline.

I just don't think extension after extension is the correct approach. I think it's simpler to suspend-until-replacements-are-found, instead.

[mastin2]

...

How did he--

Err, you see nothing.

[mastin2]

So, GreyICE, can you refresh me on YOUR scumlist?

We apparently have at least two mutual reads. (Empking/Edmund.)



I'll get to the Toon-is-town belief when I actually have access to my notes (on my desktop right now rather than laptop). (Wait, does that qualify as "one person not his scumbuddy" to you, ICE? You're very strongly opposed to my play, so it's kinda hard to tell if you think I'm scum or just anti-town incarnate.)

But I'll be honest: the main reason I want to stop the Toon/Bowser/Hiplop wagons isn't because of my town-reads on them. (That is *A* reason, but it's not the MAIN reason.) The main reason is that Pappums, Empking, and Edmund all display an identical view on the game, and have extremely condemning interactions. A lynch on one of them, condemns the other two. And with all three of them dead, the final two would be easy to pick out.

Essentially, they're stronger scumreads than Tomie was, right now.

(Sorry, distracted, incoherent.)

[mastin2]

I feel the need to point out a correction in my post.

When I said "share the same view". I didn't mean, "these guys share a lot of the same reads". (Do they have any reads in common? I have no clue; I didn't check, because that's not what I was saying.) I meant "share the same opportunistic view". Their outlook on the game. For all of them, it's a scum mind-set.

I'm still busy elsewhere, but I'll get to it when I'm not.

[mastin2]

Yes and "I-don't know". You have the same scum-opportunistic-outlook on the game. This is quite evident, and painfully obvious.

Your reads, well, quite frankly, I don't know what they are, and couldn't care less. They could be the same, they could be different, they could be somewhere in the middle; it's irrelevant because it's not the point I was trying to communicate.

[mastin2]

People want a lot of mislynches.
The lynch today is among {Pappums, Toon, hiplop, Bowser}. Three of them are town-reads. One of them is my vote.

Edmund is also scum, but less wagonable.

Yeah, not much really of note.

[mastin2]

I have reasons.
They're Interactions, Motive, and Tone.
With lots of sub-sets, of course. Motive also has "Mind-set", "Reasoning", "Outlook", and "Intention". Tone also has "Natural" and "Artificial".

Scum interactions are painfully obvious, scum outlook on the game is quite evident, scum tone is making me hurt because of how blatant it is.

If you must know, I've been devoting an unhealthy amount of time to a place our replacer is aware of. That ate up endless hours of time, to the point where I've been sacrificing my play site-wide for it. Since it's momentarily over, that means that I finally have the time to play here.

And, hey.

Longer you wait, better the reward. (When I unleash my reads, I hold nothing back.)

[mastin2]

hiplop ( 6 ) - Torqez, paupam's rat, malpascp, Hirarky, lewarcher82, Maxous
Bowser ( 4 ) - MintKitten, edmund.angles, vezokpiraka, Toon Fighter
Toon Fighter ( 4 ) - zMuffinMan, GreyICE, chkflip, Empking
paupam's rat ( 3 ) - hiplop, mastin2, Bowser

No more than one, maybe (AND THIS IS AN EFFING HUGE "MAYBE"!) two of these are actually scum.

Which ones you have a town-read on are VERY important, Hez.


Anyway, just checked elsewhere. Really only have two or three other obligations. So, I'll be getting my gear on soon enough.

[mastin2]

But I have a slight townread on Toon Fighter. I nailed him as scum in Matrix Mafia with no problem, and he's not playing the same way here.

*insert GreyICE's CAPS LOCK RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGE here*

But, yeah. Toon's a town-read of mine as well.

Hey. Neruz PMed me and said if we lynch Toon Fighter today, he'll modkill hiplop.

Explain to me how this would not be made public information.

(Though I do agree with the part about unvoting hiplop. His replacement, on the other hand...)

[mastin2]

*cracks wrists*

I finally got my rhythm back. I remembered why all of my reads are what they are. I'm supposed to go to sleep in a couple of hours, since I've got a long hike tomorrow. But 1: I therefore won't have time tomorrow, and will A: be busy that night and B: have to go to sleep early that night as well, due to an event on Saturday, and

2: After all the procrastination I've done, after literally forgetting the reasons why for nearly every single read of mine, I for the first time in forever--by simply looking at my notes--have gotten my groove back. I sure as heck aren't going to stop myself (and risk losing it) for a thing so trivial as sleep.

No, if it has to be an all-nighter, so be it. I'm getting my act together.

[mastin2]

Remember this?

TOWN:
MuffinMan
Torquez/Hez
Bowser
Maxous

hiplop (STRONGEST--almost enough to move up)
Toon (SECOND WEAKEST)
Phoebus/lewarcher (WEAKEST)

LIKELY TOWN:
Vezok
Hiraki

Pine

DA REST:

malpascp
Prana/Mint
SRG
Warrior
Uprising/chk (ENOUGH TO ALMOST MOVE DOWN)

SCUM:

Tomie?
Edmund

GreyICE

(?)
Empking
Pappums

It needs no updating. Merely re-ordering of the scum-reads. Pappums at the top, Edmund/Empking tied for second (lean towards Empking), Tomie below that, and GreyICE at the bottom.

I had to only look at the list to know instantly why. All I need to do is convert this instant rush of mental notes into physical proof.

(Side-note: among the mental proof IS meta--two Toon-town games which Toon's play is a dead-ringer for me, a town Pappums game which doesn't match Pappum's play here, and a town Empking game which doesn't match his play here. It's something I do think about in my head, but I will not be using it [other than its mention here] in my physical proof, out of respect for GreyICE*.)

(*When I release my "Guide to Scumhunting Well", you'll see my current view on meta. Haven't found what seems like the right time to post that Guide, though. :/)

[mastin2]

Step one: confirmation posts.

Yes. I can get generally reliable reads from confirmation posts. Don't ask me *why* I can. I just do, and it works.

(No, this is not BS. Yes, this is how I got my mystical initial reads which people thought were pulled out of thin air. Yes, I realize how insane that sounds, and yes, I realize how people probably will not accept it as valid evidence. But these were the foundation of my reads, no joke, no BS.)

Town.

I'm slightly suspicious of there being one scum in {SRG, Pine, warrior}, hence why warrior was originally on my scumlist and currently is near the bottom of my "DA REST" list.

Prana's gave me a very weak town-read.

Uprising's identical confirmation initially gave me a town-read. But on a re-read, I realized how it was bandwagoning Prana's confirmation. But then I thought that it was the type of interaction which could only come from town. And I changed my mind. Back and forth multiple times. I settled eventually on weak town.

Very

weak town. As in, "probably would be on my scumlist if one of my scumreads was proven to be town", weak. (You can see this strongest in my first post of the day.

8. Uprising <--Flip-flops, but overall leans town. (So, very minorly.)

To this day, that has not improved.)

I've already explained why I see Torquez's as town. He shows enthusiasm, as well as displaying one of my personal town-tells by greeting the names he's familiar with.

Between Muffin, Phoebus, and Empking, there should be another scum, too. Phoebus's used a period and lacked a slash--enough to make me doubt him. Muffin's obvious-town for other reasons. Process of Elimination, Empking's confirmation post makes him scum.

Toon's post is overall null--on the one hand, he's showing enthusiasm. On the other hand, it looks like a copy of Torqez's.

Mal became a town-read of mine for his confirmation post. It could be a copy of Torqez's via the ":D" showing enthusiasm, but it didn't read that way. Also, the word choice of "confirming" rather than just "confirm" makes Mal stand out from the crowd a bit.

And that's the confirmation stage.


I realize that you still think that this is a load of BS, but if you reeeeeeeeeeeally insist, I can try to explain why I feel the way I do about these confirmation posts. And how I'm right about them all. There's a whole hidden depth, a layer in confirmation posts which I feel is actually quite a cool way to scumhunt once you master the finer points of it. (It's not a perfect art, but it does work more often than not.)

[mastin2]

...But not until after I finish, okay? Next up is the short RVS. (Short, because I come in on page two. And once Mastin posts, the RVS is effectively over. Has been that way since early '09. )

[mastin2]

Toon's opener starts the standard Mastin wagon. (There's always a Mastin wagon in games.
Always*. )

*Sometimes even when Mastin himself isn't and never does join said game.

His reasoning is some of the best out of all. Toon has seen me in two games, at that point. One was a marathon game. Where I dayvigged my scumbuddy the second the game began on Day One, and cruised to my first-ever 3P lylo. He (town) won, but it was not an easy victory for him to earn. He had to fight me, hard, to get it.

So, he sees that as scum, I'm hard to kill and therefore a threat.

The other game was Tricycle Mafia, where I exceeded my "one-gambit-per-game" limit. The end result was me, lynched, and him having outed himself pointlessly because he missed my hints.

In other words, I helped screw over the town and contributed to the scum victory that game.

So, he sees me as a liability to the town and therefore a threat.


Both are consistent with his vote and reason. This is what instantly propelled Toon to his current spot.


Prana's RVote has some history behind it--SRG and he know each other. Prana vouched for SRG before the game to allow SRG to play. They had a bit of a conversation. Prana's RVote was following through on that, in a manner I felt was quite pro-town.

This gave me my scumread on Tomie. I've never played with Tomie before. If I have, I certainly am not aware of it. So, Tomie voted me, despite having not known me. It started the mastin bandwagon. It was one of the least justified votes.

The Prana-SRG interaction continues, and again, this particular kind of conversation, the overall casual, playful feeling to their interactions feels like it is pure town.

THIS, however, was pure scum. "just my way of saying hello". The way to say "hello" is to say it in-thread, like Torqez did. It also gives off a distinctive feeling of needing to over-explain the vote, like Edmund needs to justify his random vote. More than that, it's bandwagoning without acknowledging the wagon on Muffin.

It simultaneously created a scumread on Edmund and a town-read on Muffin. (Yes, this is where I got my Muffing town-read from.) Edmund displays a clear overcautiousness in his tone, a clear feeling of scum paranoia. It stands in stark contrast to the casual tones of SRG/Prana.

Hiraki was null.

Maxous, on the other hand, has a town-lean. His vote on me seemed town enough. Like Toon, it could be referring to two games. One, marathon, where I was a cop, and nailed both him and his buddy as scum. (Revenge.) Two, the same game as Toon, Tricycle, where I fakeclaimed daycop on day one.

Either one could explain the emoticon at the end. And both display an overall town mind-set.

This gives off an identical "overall null but leaning town" feel. It's a safe vote, on a safe person, for a safe reason--but it is the casual attitude I'd expect.

And then I post. So, that's the end of the RVS, as far as I'm concerned.

[mastin2]

hiplop: 4
toon: 3
pappum's: 2
bowser: 1

No need for numbers overcomplicating things. Pappums, Toon, Hiplop, Bowser,

most to least scum.


Do note, "most to least scum" still means "only one scum", meaning the others are town. Pappums should be the lynch today. But I'm getting to that. I've gotten to where the real game begins.

[mastin2]

There's a flaw in your matrix.

Town will always score higher than scum.

Always.

[mastin2]

Tomie degrades my play to gut. When it actually has quite a logical order to it, when you follow things through, come to the end conclusion of a train of thought. It's a horrible reason to not comment on the rest of my list, showing a terrible reaction. If Tomie was disappointed by me, that implies I did something Tomie would know to be wrong--from Tomie-town's perspective, there is my misread of the slot, but that's not something which I'd expect to be disappointed in. Disappointment implies a stronger disagreement with my reads, beyond misreading Tomie's slot. The fact that Tomie didn't give commentary on any of my reads despite strongly implying that I was not living up to expectations, leaves me to believe Tomie was scum.

Pappums OMGUS's Hiraki. Ignores everything else, to OMGUS in the most scummy way possible.

Mal's actually comes across as semi-serious. Okay, so it's not so much "serious", as "relevant". It strengthened my town-read on mal, to say the least.

And now, the infamous Bowser post. Bowser says that the lists bug him. That does not imply suspicion. It implies annoyance--which is normal to most player's stance on me. (Many are fine, with me as a person. Me, as a player, on the other hand... )

But it also shows scumhunting, in that Bowser has gotten town-reads. He's going by instinct (gut) and doesn't elaborate, but he's one of our first legitimate scumhunters.

In essence, he was saying, "he may be annoying, but he's good."

This is through page two. I'll see how far I feel like going before posting again. (Dang it. 3 hours later than I intended to go to sleep. Dead tired. And I'm only a tenth of the way there. >_<)

[mastin2]

GreyICE also ignores me to RVote.

Phoebus votes me without a word. But it's a Policy Vote. Phoebus's only game with me was when I was a Lyncher. It was a Large Normal. ("Lyncher. In. A. Normal. Whut?" Yeeeeeeeeeeeah, that game's kinda the reason we have setup reviewers, now. It also had a cult which could kill, and a mafia mason, among others.) He saw me as anti-town, he thinks of me in general as anti-town. Simple enough logic. I don't feel he would've bandwagoned me as scum.

At least, not like this--he votes me without a word. Implying his dislike, rather than flat-out stating it. It has a serious town Tone to the vote. (Yes, Votes have Tone. I cover this in my Guide To Scumhunting.)

WIN

Vote: Tomie

This reeks of 1: bandwagoning (and perhaps hypocrisy--depends on how you interpret the "WIN"; the tone is rather ambiguous), and 2: bussing Tomie.

Bowser--who trusted my reads in his last post--follows this trust to a logical conclusion. Serious town points, for Bowser.

No doubt Warrior's a newb. This ignorance reads as newb-town rather than newb-scum. The Late-RV is generally a signature town move.

And phoebus is scum

VOTE: Phoebus

Scumhunts on something which on the surface does look bad. This shows a legitimate interest in trying to find the scum. Muffin is among the first to do this. And is therefore town.

Hey mastin what exactly are you trying to accomplish with these "reads" of yours?

1: Scum tone. Pappums uses safe wording. 2: This is fluff. Asking me what I intend to achieve with that strategy is something to make Pappums look like he's contributing to discussion, when in fact this question is useless. 3: It also plants doubt in the town's mind as to my legitimacy.

I dont see any scum motivation behind it, I just think its kind of odd.

Fencesitting. Leaves open a back door to track through if necessary, if the need arises for mastin-suspicion. Gives nothing productive to the discussion--doesn't mention why it's odd, doesn't say why he doesn't see scum motivation in it...doesn't give anything.

It's a worthless scum post. It has a clear scum motive behind it: trying to appear more town than he really is. And guess what? So far, the town appears to have mostly bought it.

In what way could mastin's lolreads possibly be misconstrued by anyone as "trying to look helpful" ? He claims to have reads on people who have only posted their "/confirm".

Pressures hiplop, yet doesn't vote hiplop. It also subtly plants the idea that "Mastin's reads are worthless". (When I've rather conclusively shown you how my reads were in fact serious, and quite objective in their basis.)

somerandomguy ( 2 ) - PranaDevil, warriormode
zMuffinMan ( 2 ) - somerandomguy, edmund.angles
Hirarky ( 2 ) - paupam's rat, GreyICE

Two scum in here, guaranteed. Edmund is one, and Pappums is the other. (This is one of the main reasons GreyICE is at the bottom of my scum-list: he really is the most likely to be wrong.)

paupam's rat ( 1 ) - Hirarky
Bowser ( 1 ) - Uprising
Phoebus ( 1 ) - zMuffinMan

I'd also expect one scum here as well. It's not Hiraki or Muffin, so if there's scum, it's Uprising/chk.

mastin2 ( 6 ) - Toon Fighter, Tomie Uzumaki, Maxous, malpascp, Phoebus, hiplop

This does need 1-2 scum on it, but I've pretty well explained my reads on pretty much all of them, showing why Tomie's my main suspect, here.

This is 3-5 of the scum. So, in conclusion, 0-2 (most likely one) is in the leftovers. Like, oh...

Tomie Uzumaki ( 3 ) - mastin2, Empking, Bowser

There! Very likely one scum. Empking fits the pattern.

This is only through page three. (...I'm not going to finish this tonight, am I? >_< So much for my promise... :/)

[mastin2]

Looking back at this,

Town shouldn't have to try to look good. Thats what he is doing, hes not actually doing anything helpful. Its simply an illusion

I now realize that this can 100% only come from town. Sentence by sentence, he's using signature Mastin moves against me. Obviously not intentionally, but that's what makes it even stronger, the accidental nature of his suspicions!

For starters--an accusation of trying to make myself look good. (Exactly my accusation against Pappums.) Accusing me of not posting anything helpful. (Exactly what I said Pappums was doing.) And the use of the word "illusion". The invoking of such a strong word, it can only come from town in this case.

This is a valid point about GreyICE's stances. A lack of vote, despite having a narrowed down list.

Like Tomie I did not like Bowser's post:
Bowser was wishy-washy on the subject of Mastin's reads.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Bowser

Blatant bandwagoning. (Additionally, blatant buddying--making me doubt my Tomie scumread, since quite frankly, Edmund's a stronger scumread.) Pushes a false fact about Bowser. Leaves a back door open to pedal through. "did not like", "was wishy-washy", "on the subject of", all leaving possible outs. All leaving a way to improve his stance.

@mastin: Do you mean that your early list was a type of reaction fishing?

This can only be interpreted as one of two ways. 1: fluff identical to Pappums's. Or, worse, 2: trying to fish from me, himself. Not quite a rolefish, but an information fish, so to speak. Not looking for something which can be beneficial to town (why would the town need to know if it was reaction fishing? If the answer was "yes", it'd nullify the point of the reaction fish!), but which has a huge benefit to the scum. (Not falling into the trap if one exists.)

So, yup, strong scum motive in Edmund.

@Tomie: Why does Mastin being town have anything to do with zMuffin and Bowser's alignment?

This is pretty much a scumclaim. Edmund is trying to direct attention to all three players: myself, Muffin, and Bowser. To get Tomie focusing on all three equally, to pursue all three of us as suspects. To focus attention on players he knows are all town.

*sigh*

It's 3:30 am right now. And progress is slow. It's taking me, like, an hour per page. It'll probably get better after 5-7 (early-game reads are more important--another fact my Guide To Scumhunting elaborates on greatly), but it's time-consuming for these early-pages. And I am skipping some posts which might be good to address.

Posting this as it is, now, even though I haven't finished page four. I don't want to stay up to that hour to finish that page.

[mastin2]

EditBWOP: I'm tired. You can tell by typos such as this:

All leaving a way to improve his stance.

Should be "All leaving a way to change his stance". (I might've been thinking of a fancier word, but I'm too tired to think it through. "change" might not be the most elegant word, but it is the must blunt. And easier for an exhausted mind to remember. )

[mastin2]

are you like a lyncher or something

Yes and no.

No, he can't be the role, "lyncher". This is a normal game.

Yes, he might as well be the role lyncher, since his will to want me dead is enough to override his current win condition and make him want me dead.

Spoiler: GreyICE

GreyICE somehow mis-read this:

This is a valid point about GreyICE's stances. A lack of vote, despite having a narrowed down list.

As "lack of vote at all", when it was clearly meant to be (as the linked post shows, had he bothered to check) "lack of vote within the narrowed down list".

Not to mention,

He's also a fucking arrogant retard whose terrible for every town that has the misfortune to have him draw a town role PM.

If GreyICE is town, this is about as blatantly hypocritical as you can get. There's nothing but arrogant condescendence in his posts this game. That tone is consistently present. His extreme obsession with degrading my reads and play is itself degrading his own reads and play--a focus on a single player, a tunnel vision on a player not of alignment, but of play (obsessed with the idea that they are completely wrong), is more anti-town than standard tunnel vision.

I quite frankly find his attitude to be indicative of scum play. He knew I was going to be in this game. If he hated me so much, then he could have just outed. He could've chosen not to play with me, if this was a general hatred of me. But his hatred of me didn't start until after we had started to play. His obsession in this game, it goes way beyond what I'd expect any town player to do.

Anyway, resuming.

[mastin2]

David Xanatos replaces Pine

Again.

Anyway, we just mislynched. Yay! Pappums is scum, and sorgster has re-ignited my previously-fading Tomie suspicion! Oh, and chk is close to being scum.

Can the town fail harder?

(Oh, right. The "vig mastin" idea. )

[mastin2]

paupam's rat ( 1 ) - mastin2
Bowser ( 1 ) - MintKitten
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) - somerandomguy
sorgster ( 1 ) - chkflip
Empking ( 1 ) - Maxous

I'm quite ticked off, needless to say, that there are three wagons here which shouldn't have died...

...Which, well, died.

Unvote, VOTE: Empking, HoS: sorgster

.

(The Bowser/Muffin ones can and should die, though.)

[mastin2]

And, yes. This is a "screw you" to the town about both primary wagons. Nothing sends a stronger message than refusing to lynch certain players when deadline is eminent. It's helped me stop a mislynch Day One (Mirror Mafia--I had the chance to hammer, but refused to do so), it's helped me secure a scum lynch on Day Two (Mini 1180, where I refused to hammer Captain [town] and said "Ald or Nobody". We lynched Ald. He flipped the exact role I said he was, Mafia Roleblocker. And I did the same thing day one, with TWIE and WormyKrew [scum]. We lynched WormyKrew then. It was a perfect town victory, by the way).

Right, Wrong, whatever. I aint lynching Toon or Hiplop. ESPECIALLY not Hiplop.

[mastin2]

@mastin What did I do that is even scum-like? Why are you saying a no lynch is good? That sounds scummy to me. Just because you got lucky in other games, doesn't mean you will get lucky in this one with lynches. Why especially not hiplop? You two seem to be bussing in my opinion. You were saying a lot of fluff at the start mastin.

I'll give you a hint. It's an attitude strongly displayed in this very quote.

But let's also throw in some bonus material.

His defence was good. It said that there was no attack on him except for his defence of mastin(who seems suspcious to me). After that he thought he was out and said good luck town. That didn't seem like what a scum would say.

Why especially not hiplop? You two seem to be bussing in my opinion.

What changed between the first paragraph and the second?

[mastin2]

Right. So the scum thought "Since hiplop was the counter-wagon to Toon, he's confirmed town!" and shot him.
The vig shot lewarcher, scum.

Either that, or the scum kill failed to go through, the sk shot hiplop while thinking it'd appear town (when, in fact, hiplop was confirmed town by the Toon flip), and the vig shot lewarcher.

VOTE: Edmund.

I'm gonna sheep ICE. Which puts David on the scumlist by proxy.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: list

1. Empking <--Scum.
2. edmund.angles <--Scum.
3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek
5. Bowser <--Town.
6. vezokpiraka
7. GreyICE <--Town, via ICE/Pine.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Former scum-lean.
9. Torqez Hezlucky <--Town.
10. Maxous <--Town.
11. malpascp
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Scum, via ICE/Pine.
14. pappums rat <--Scum?
15. warriormode
16. Tomie Uzumaki sorgster <--Former scumread.
17. Hiraki (May Need Replacing?)
19. SomeRandomGuy
20. zMuffinMan <--Town.

Narrowed down:
1. Empking <--Scum.
2. edmund.angles <--Scum.
3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek
6. vezokpiraka (town-lean)
7. GreyICE <--Town, via ICE/Pine.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Former scum-lean.
11. malpascp (stronger town-lean)
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Scum, via ICE/Pine.
14. pappums rat <--Scum?
15. warriormode (strong town-lean)
16. Tomie Uzumaki sorgster <--Former scumread.
17. Hiraki (May Need Replacing?)
19. SomeRandomGuy


One of my current scumreads is wrong, unless they're the SK. My previous (former) scumreads also look like potential SK candidates, but otherwise, town.

Need to re-evaluate the game right now. See what fits where.

[mastin2]

GreyICE-Pine interactions were not townVtown, hence why I tried to encourage them further. The fact that I was unable to do so only solidified this as true.

I'm slightly suspicious of there being one scum in {SRG, Pine, warrior},

Could've sworn I brought this up more often, but can't find it in my ISO. It's certainly in my notes, though. (Searching for GreyICE in my ISO might give more, since he was the one which I leaned scum on up 'til Toon's flip.)

[mastin2]

Edmund calling for my policy vig-->confirmation he's scum. Living, breathing scum. Empking's defense of Edmund-->why he still is a scumread. Vezok's way of pushing Edmund-->town. Edmund voting Maxous the way he did-->Ed's scum, Max isn't. Sorgster voting for me with that reason-->obv-OMGUS. Will review if it's lolnewbtown-OMGUS, or lolnewbscum-OMGUS.

[mastin2]

In particular,

And if he is town, do you really want him to be around as a loose cannon at LyLo?

Loose cannons are far more dangerous to scum than they are to town. A loose cannon could be tunneling on town the entire game, scum keep them around thinking, "easy-win", BAM, suddenly reverse and vote the scum. (Ironically enough, Yosarian2 is the one who taught me this.) I'm dangerous because I'm unpredictable. Pro-town players respond? "Meh, he's Mastin. He's a VI, but he's town. Let him be. Scum will kill him when he gets to be too annoying." Scum players respond?

"He's a threat. (To us more than the town...) Look at how wild he is! (We don't want to waste our nightkill on someone who isn't incredibly pro-town just because they're a threat!) He could cost us the game! (...By suddenly voting us when we least expect it.) He should be removed by our vig. (Since we don't want to look scummy for pushing the lynch of obv-town. Impulsive, wild-card, loose-cannon, slightly-VI-town, but still town.) Why don't you see this?"

(Because towns are smart enough to know that wild-cards favor them far more often than they favor the scum.
Right now, I'm leashing myself, showing some restrain. I'll lose that control once I see no reason to hold back. And scum hate it when that happens. When one moment, they're facing a docile pushover who looks like an easy target...and then the next, they're wagoned up to L-1, being pushed by that very same person.
I love being impulsive. )

[mastin2]

vote edmund angels

I see something scummy about him. It's gut right now but I think I can explain it if he posts more.

Woo bit lucky for you that he happened to be the largest wagon.

Heck, with the sudden (quick, AKA fail) wagon on Maxous, the statement might not even be true, anymore.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: rambling

But there's a point of unpredictability where you have ceased to be 'who knows what he'll do' and more 'even if he's town, can we trust him?' Fakeclaiming power role results is that level. In a way, you've already helped the scum - they know even if you were an information role, they could probably get out because of people like me or anyone else looking at your 'lie detector' claim and just rolling our eyes - so you're bad to shoot, because you're a null information role.

I'm allowed one gambit per game. No more (that gets me lynched--Maxous knows what I speak of), but also no less. In every single game I've played since Tricycle, I've been pulling exactly one gambit. Never less than that. So, yeah.

(Do note, my definition of Gambit is a little bit broad. I considered dropping heavy breadcrumbs of my Doctor role on all my Even-numbered [even-numbered in isolation, that is] posts to be a Gambit, for instance, since if it were too obvious, I get outed, and too subtle, it's worthless. Turned out I didn't need my doc claim at all, but if the need arose, I had struck the perfect balance.)

I adapt to every game I play. In this one, I need to be unpredictable. Which means that if I DO die, that the scum actually ARE afraid of me. (Or just that dang annoyed. I swear, a good 75% of the times scum night-kill me, it's not for some typical reason, like "Mastin is obv-town", "mastin's too dang good", or something like that. It's "Mastin is getting on my nerves". )

(Or the SK wanted to pull off another hiplop-style kill, IE, something which looks like it could be pro-town on an initial viewing but when you look at it again becomes quite [painfully so, in fact] obvious that it was not a pro-town kill.)

Anyway, rambling aside...

2. Attacking a guy that happened to bandwagon Edmund is not even close to defending Edmund.

It is, in that you're trying to get them off of Edmund. Failing that, you're trying to get people to pay more attention to that player, rather than Edmund. (Deflecting.) Failing *that*, you're trying to get people to think the wagon on Edmund is less valid, by pointing out a weak voter's (lack of) reason on the Edmund wagon. Any one of these is a fair interpretation of your post, since it can do all of them at the same time.

Admittedly, not a strong defense of Edmund, but that's actually making it worse: because it's subtle, it's harder to detect, and subtleness as scum is key to avoiding detection.

[mastin2]

1. You're deflecting far more than I am.

Blatantly.

Onto

Edmund.

2. You're not even bothering to read my posts. I never tried to get Vezok off the wagon.

You did not pursue this in your followup posts, true. But it was there in the original, as something you could have gone after if you had chosen to do so.

4. Surely if I wanted to defend Edmund I'd've been consistant and sheeped Grey to his new (

on town

) wagon.

I love it when the scum slip.

Maxous is confirmed-town.

[mastin2]

You, Edmund. Considering how close you're linked, same thing. An attack on you incriminates Edmund by proxy. So it's still onto Edmund, since this whole debate is on you defending him.

I "could have". Really?

This is not one of those theoretical situations where it's something unlikely to happen. This was one of your viable options. Your disapproval read to me as trying to get Vezok off.

This is a joke right?

And we can add Appeal to Ridicule onto the list of charges against Empking.

[mastin2]

Unless you've got a way to explain a scum power robbing a scum player of their vote...

Unvote

.

I'll take a quick look at the quickwagon on me. Two scum there, naturally, but no more since they wouldn't risk over half their scumteam on me.

[mastin2]

Almighty Vote Thingy

mastin2 ( 6 ) -

Toon Fighter, Tomie Uzumaki, Maxous, malpascp, Phoebus, hiplop

Tomie Uzumaki ( 3 ) -

mastin2, Empking, Bowser

somerandomguy ( 2 ) -

PranaDevil, warriormode

zMuffinMan ( 2 ) -

somerandomguy, edmund.angles

Hirarky ( 2 ) -

paupam's rat, GreyICE

paupam's rat ( 1 ) -

Hirarky

Bowser ( 1 ) -

Uprising

Phoebus ( 1 ) -

zMuffinMan

11 Votes to Lynch

Day 1 will end at approximately 10:00AM GMT+0 on the 26th of July.

vezokpiraka has 23 hours to confirm or be replaced

Toon, scum. Phoebus, scum. By proxy, rest are town. Meaning Maxous, town. Tomie/Sorgster, newb-town. Mal, obv-town.

Bowser's town as well, so the chances of Empking being scum just skyrocketed. Process of elimination, zero to one scum within the (1) voters, one to two scum within the (2) voters, with remaining scum not listed. Edmund's apparently confirmed town, since vote-stealing is a scum ability unless claimed immediately. SRG's chances of being scum go up slightly because of it.

GreyICE is, well, GreyICE. He's obv-town, so he's not scum, either. This significantly increases Pappum's chances of being scum.

VOTE: Empking. Why not?

[mastin2]

mastin2 ( 5 ) - Toon Fighter, Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp, Phoebus, hiplop
Tomie Uzumaki ( 3 ) - mastin2, Empking, Bowser
somerandomguy ( 2 ) - PranaDevil, warriormode
Bowser ( 2 ) - Uprising, edmund.angles
Hirarky ( 2 ) - paupam's rat, GreyICE
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) - somerandomguy
paupam's rat ( 1 ) - Hirarky
Phoebus ( 1 ) - zMuffinMan
hiplop ( 1 ) - Maxous

Now it's significantly more likely for there to be one scum in the four (1) voters. Additionally, chk/Uprising's chances of being scum have increased significantly. Rest is pretty much unchanged.

Tomie Uzumaki ( 4 ) - mastin2, Empking, Bowser, Pine

One of the names on here has to be scum. Guaranteed. It aint Bowser. Leaves Empking and Pine/David.

paupam's rat ( 1 ) - warriormode
Bowser ( 1 ) - edmund.angles
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) - somerandomguy
Phoebus ( 1 ) - zMuffinMan
Torqez ( 1 ) - PranaDevil

1-2 scum in here. Can't be Edmund. Prob not Muffin, a strong town-read of mine. Narrows it down to Prana/SRG/Warrior.

Let's narrow things down a bit.

1. Empking <--Strong suspect.
2. edmund.angles <--Just became confirmed town.
3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek <--Investigation pending.
5. Bowser CSL <--Obv-town.
6. vezokpiraka <-- ? (Town-lean.)
7. GreyICE <--Obv-town.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Suspect.
9. Torqez Hezlucky <--Obv-town.
10. Maxous <--might as well be conf-town.
11. malpascp <--Same, but more.
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Heavy suspect.
14. pappums rat <--Suspect.
15. warriormode <--Investigation pending.
16. Tomie Uzumaki sorgster <--Town.
17. Hiraki (May Need Replacing?) <--Pending. (But probs-town.)
19. SomeRandomGuy (Awaiting Replacement) <--Investigation pending.
20. zMuffinMan <--Obv-town.

1. Empking <--Strong suspect.
3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek <--Investigation pending.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Suspect.
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Heavy suspect.
14. pappums rat <--Suspect.
15. warriormode <--Investigation pending.
17. Hiraki (May Need Replacing?) <--Pending. (But probs-town.)
19. SomeRandomGuy (Awaiting Replacement) <--Investigation pending.

Three of these names are scum. SRG/Warrior/Prana/Uprising seem to have strong connections implying at most one scum between them. Eliminating those four leaves me with four left. Hiraki's pending, but prob-town. Narrows it down to three, for two scum spots:

Empking, Pine/David, and Pappums.

This game just became broken.

[mastin2]

Unless you've got a way to explain a scum power robbing a scum player of their vote...

Well, could be a town power. Always that possibility.

Any town day power (with the possible exception of dayvig--depends on who they target ) is claimed immediately.

If someone fails to claim the power, it's therefore a scum power.

Common knowledge, really.

[mastin2]

No, Sorgster.
If they claim and are a town-power, they're made suspicious because it's an inheritently scummy ability. (Vote manipulation is FAR stronger as a scum ability than as a town ability.) Scum'd never nightkill someone like that.

If they don't claim, it's synonymous with it being labelled scum power automatically.

[mastin2]

Town quickwagoned.

That's all the claim I'll need to hear for me to believe it.

C'mon.

SERIOUSLY?!?

[mastin2]

mastin2 ( 6 ) -

Toon Fighter

, Tomie Uzumaki, Maxous, malpascp,

Phoebus

,

hiplop

Two scum minimum, bookmark it.

Keep in mind, five scum in the game.

Tell me.

Does over half the scumteam just randomly decide to quickwagon me?

That'd be what it'd take for Maxous to be scum. For over half of the scum to decide that they can get away with this.


No, it's far, FAR more likely that there's only two on here. Those two being Toon Fighter (our Day One lynch) and Phoebus/Lewarcher (killed N1). Hiplop was also killed (and is confirmed town). Tomie/Sorgster, Maxous, and Mal are therefore ALL town.


Seriously. The scum wouldn't all be on me. Least of all, Maxous, who I hardcore tunneled on last game. If he were scum, the LAST thing he'd want is to antagonize me.

All three of Tomie, Maxous, and Mal are confirmed town. The Maxous wagon is madeoffail, and it wouldn't surprise me to learn it's scum-driven.

[mastin2]

1. Empking <--Suspect.
2. edmund.angles <--Confirmed town.
3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek <--Investigating.
5. Bowser CSL <--Obv-town.
6. vezokpiraka <--Investigating, but prob-town.
7. GreyICE <--Town, as per ICEvPine/David plus Toon.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Suspect.
9. Torqez Hezlucky <--Town.
10. Maxous <--Confirmed town, via Mastin Wagon.
11. malpascp <--Confirmed town, via Mastin Wagon.
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Scum, as per ICEvPine/David and his general scum play.
14. pappums rat (Awaiting Replacement) <-- ?
15. warriormode <--Investigating.
16. Tomie Uzumaki sorgster <--Town, via Mastin Wagon.
17. Hiraki (Awaiting Replacement) <--Investigating, but prob-town.
19. SomeRandomGuy NanookTheWolf <--Investigating.
20. zMuffinMan <--Town-read.

Eighteen alive, by my count. Eliminating my town-reads...

1. Empking <--Suspect.
3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek <--Investigating.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Suspect.
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Scum, as per ICEvPine/David and his general scum play.
14. pappums rat (Awaiting Replacement) <-- ?
15. warriormode <--Investigating.
19. SomeRandomGuy NanookTheWolf <--Investigating.

I get seven names.

Yeah. This game's won, by the awesome POWER OF P_O_E!!!

Maxous ( 8 ) - GreyICE, Zdenek, warriormode, malpascp, HezLucky, CSL, Empking, sorgster, David Xanatos
edmund.angles ( 4 ) -

David Xanatos

, Maxous, vezokpiraka, pappums rat

Yeah. There's no way Maxous is a town-driven wagon. ICE is town, Mal's town, Hez and CSL are town, and so is Sorgster. POE, Zdenek, Warrior, Empking, and David Xanatos are left. I strongly, STRONGLY suspect Empking's scum. David pretty much confirmed he's scum by L-1'ing the obv-town Maxous. I'm about 75% sure because of that that the remaining fifth scum would be Zdenek or Warrior. Leaning Zdenek.


Aw, heck. Why not?

The Scumteam is Toon Fighter, Phoebus, Empking, David Xanatos, and Zdenek.

[mastin2]

Meh, it'd surprise me if I was right on the whole list. Wouldn't be surprised if I got one wrong. But definitely not wrong on all three. (Heck, probably not even two wrong, either.) But of the three living scum ({David, Empking, Zdenek} being my guesses), you are the one I least doubt my read on. Thinking about it, you surpass even Empking.

Unvote, VOTE: David Xanatos

.

[mastin2]

Empking (Town Watcher) has died! <--Obv-vig. No scum player'd shoot Empking.
Hiraki (Townie) has died! <--Town enough, so has a fair chance of being the scum kill. It is, however, possibly a safe-SK kill.
NanookTheWolf (Townie) has died! <--Looks like a mercy-SK kill.


Since ICE is a now-claimed vote stealer (he could've used that ability in, say, the endgame for an instant scum win. He didn't--he revealed it early-on, and therefore is town), that means that Edmund is back on the scumlist. Will evaluate. But looks like...


3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek <--Investigating.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Suspect.
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Scum, as per ICEvPine/David and his general scum play.
14. pappums rat (Awaiting Replacement) <-- ?
15. warriormode <--Investigating.
(Edmund)

These

five

six contain our remaining three scum.

-David and Zdenek are obvious choices.
VOTE: David Xanatos.
-Which leaves one left.
-I don't think chk would be bussing in the manner he is.
-That narrows down the final scum to {Edmund, warrior, Pappums}. I kinda still have a gut-town-read on Warrior, but I'll be looking into all of them to figure out who it is among them.

[mastin2]

Put bluntly:
TOWN: GreyICE
CSL
Hez
Mal
Sorgster

WEAKER TOWN (BUT STILL TOWN):
Muffin
Vezok

NULL:
chk (in suspect list, but only technically)
Warrior
Pappums

SCUM:
David
Zdenek
Edmund (?)

[mastin2]

Unvote, VOTE: Edmund

. Bandwagonning scum.

No, but seriously. He's voting for Sorgster, now.

Sorgster was Tomie. Tomie was on my wagon.
My wagon had two scum.
Five scum are in the game.
For Tomie to be scum, three scum had to have been on me, a 6P wagon, risking being analyzed by me.

I said this about Maxous (also on my wagon), too. Nobody listened to me. And guess what? Looks like Mastin isn't wrong all the time, since I nailed it; he flipped...exactly what I said he would, town.


I'd love to get David lynched, but Edmund's 1: a larger wagon, and 2: C'mon, he's textbook opportunistic scum, sheeping GreyICE (now confirmed town).

He's pretty much obv-scum. Him, David...who was my third, again? I believe it was Zdenek? Yeah, one of them needs to die today.

[mastin2]

Warrior:

Same reason Maxous was. And same reason Sorgster/Tomie is. On my D1 wagon.

You're claiming that it's something they wouldn't do for fear of being analysed by you, right?

Slowly explain the logic here (without referring to psychology), because you're convinced there can't be any more scum on that early wagon, and in my books, that makes it a really, really good place for scum to be.

Yes, my wagon was a good place for scum to be.

Two scum, in fact.


Not more than that. It's common effing sense to not put too many cards on the table, create a strong link between players. If half the wagon on me was scum, then it'd create a strong link between the players, a link that others (especially me, the wagoned, who is very fond of VCA) would scrutinize. It'd be Mugging The Monster, so to speak. It'd be attacking the one guy you never want to attack, since he diverts attention to you and begins to read you. Two scum? Sure, that's proven. Three scum? When they'd already risked as much as they had? When it was very probable that the wagon would be analyzed and people would form the conclusion that it was scum-driven?

Heck no.

mastin, why do you think Edmund is scum?

We've been through this before. I said it day one: it'd be shorter to list the reasons he ISN'T scum. (No, seriously. I built a case on him for those who aren't in full "meh, ignore Mastin" mode. Which is apparently everyone. Way back on Day One, even.

I could re-state it, and then add to it his subsequent play, which didn't get better, but in fact only got worse. Especially him taking full advantage of him being called confirmed town--he milked that, and in hindsight, it's really effing obvious.

But really. It shouldn't be necessary. ISO the guy. Tell me three pro-town things he's done. He's the rare case of someone looking so much like obv-scum...that actually IS obv-scum.)

If you start a wagon on Cpt Opportunistic, I will sheep you so very, very fast.

Tell you what: you help me lynch Edmund, I'll help you lynch Zdenek. Deal?

Classic OMGUS. Can't get more scum than this.

mastin votes Empking

. Empking votes vezok. CSL votes Maxous and HoS on edmund, claiming they're both "scummy as fuck".

Somewhere around here we find out that edmund's vote was stolen N1.

Bolded are related. The latter was the reason for the former.

[mastin2]

Edmund's ISO:

-Muffin vote. (Not pro-town.)
-Bowser suspicion. (Not pro-town; Bowser/CSL's pretty much confirmed town.)
-Mastin suspicion. (Not pro-town.)
-Tomie pressure. (Not pro-town; see also: Tomie-is-town.)

If you're feeling generous, I suppose you could count this as pressuring scum. So, if we're in a giving mood, that's one pro-town thing.

-Pappums Interactions. (Not pro-town--see also: Pappums is town.)

If we're feeling VERY generous, we can give him this, too. But only if you consider the fact that TF is on the scumlist to be a pro-town move. If you look at the placement (4/5, perfect place for a buddy, eh?), it really falls apart. ESPECIALLY when paired with Blatant TF Defense. (Guess what? TF DID happen.)

But, just for the heck of it, let's say this counts as the second pro-town thing he's done.

-Maxous suspicion. (Most certainly NOT pro-town!)
-Empking suspicion. (Apparently not pro-town. )
-GreyICE discrediting. (DEFINITELY not pro-town.)
-Sorgster suspicion. (Not pro-town.)


Really. Nothing good, lots and LOTS of bad. This is just a thirty-second summary, and I've shown this much. ISO him yourself if you don't think this is an accurate description. Pressure me to re-do a case on him if you think this isn't enough. But he's freakin' obv-scum.

[mastin2]

Tomie, yes. Mal, no.

I suppose I'll begin working on a full Edmund/Zdenek/David Xanatos case, but honestly, I kinda lack the motivation--Edmund's getting votes without me pushing, Zdenek's losing supporters every time he posts, and David's slipping into people's scum suspects slowly as well. Expect severe procrastination to follow.

[mastin2]

Theoretically, yes, Warrior. In practice, no.

Spoiler: All You Need To Know About Mastin This Game

EARLY MASTIN READS:
(Note: "YTF" = "yet to flip", "BLR" = "but likely right", "BLW" = "but likely wrong". I got too lazy to type this out so much.)

TOWN:
Toon (WRONG)
Maxous (RIGHT)
Torquez (yet to flip, but likely right)
Phoebus (WRONG)
Pappums* (yet to flip, but likely right)
Hiraki (RIGHT)
malpascp (yet to flip, but likely right)
Empking (RIGHT*)
Prana
GreyICE (RIGHT)
SRG (RIGHT)
Bowser (yet to flip, but likely right)
MuffinMan (yet to flip, but likely right)
Uprising
hiplop (RIGHT)

SCUM:
Tomie (yet to flip, but likely wrong)
edmund
Vezok (yet to flip, but likely wrong)
Warrior
Pine

*Said reads were later reversed to be WRONG.

I'll give you a hint. Tomie, Warrior, and Vezok I was all wrong about. Edmund and Pine, I was right about.




LATE DAY ONE MASTIN READS:

TOWN:
MuffinMan (YTF,BLR)
Torquez/Hez (YTF,BLR)
Bowser (YTF,BLR)
Maxous (RIGHT)

hiplop (STRONGEST--almost enough to move up) (RIGHT)
Toon (SECOND WEAKEST) (WRONG, but not by much)
Phoebus/lewarcher (WEAKEST) (WRONG, also not by much)

LIKELY TOWN:
Vezok (YTF,BLR)
Hiraki (RIGHT)

Pine

(NOTE: Pine and ICE were considered mutually exclusive. So, *technically*, Wrong)

DA REST:

malpascp
Prana/Mint
SRG
Warrior
Uprising/chk (ENOUGH TO ALMOST MOVE DOWN)

SCUM:

Tomie? (Note how Tomie had dropped off--but prob-wrong)
Edmund

GreyICE

(?) (Replace with Pine)
Empking (WRONG)
Pappums (YTF,BLW)


Both lists are neither superior nor inferior to each other. On the one hand, I got a lot of my initial town-reads correct, and the later-list had me doubt reads I shouldn't have. On the other hand, the later list correctly pointed out which of my reads were the weakest, and justifiably so, as it turns out there was a good reason for that. On one hand, I showed confidence. On the other hand, when I removed the confidence, my reads turned out better (Tomie was weaker scum, and is now town, for instance).

You get the idea. But still, not bad.



MASTIN'S READS DAY TWO, PRE-VOTE-STEAL:
1. Empking <--Scum.
2. edmund.angles <--Scum.
3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek
5. Bowser <--Town.
6. vezokpiraka
7. GreyICE <--Town, via ICE/Pine.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Former scum-lean.
9. Torqez Hezlucky <--Town.
10. Maxous <--Town.
11. malpascp
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Scum, via ICE/Pine.
14. pappums rat <--Scum?
15. warriormode
16. Tomie Uzumaki sorgster <--Former scumread.
17. Hiraki (May Need Replacing?)
19. SomeRandomGuy
20. zMuffinMan <--Town.

For consistency, that should be expressed as
TOWN:
Bowser (YTF,BLR)
Hez (YTF,BLR)
Maxous (RIGHT)
Muffin (YTF,BLR)

GreyICE (RIGHT)

DA REST:
Zdenek
Vezok
Mal
Warrior
Hiraki
SRG

SCUM: (three of...)
Empking (WRONG)
Edmund
Uprising?
David Xanatos
Pappums? (YTF,BLW)
Sorgster? (YTF,BLW)


Not bad, and mostly still accurate. The town-reads remain the same.

POST-VOTE-STEAL / END OF DAY TWO:
1. Empking <--Suspect.
2. edmund.angles <--Confirmed town.
3. PranaDevil MintKitten Zdenek <--Investigating.
5. Bowser CSL <--Obv-town.
6. vezokpiraka <--Investigating, but prob-town.
7. GreyICE <--Town, as per ICEvPine/David plus Toon.
8. Uprising chkflip <--Suspect.
9. Torqez Hezlucky <--Town.
10. Maxous <--Confirmed town, via Mastin Wagon.
11. malpascp <--Confirmed town, via Mastin Wagon.
13. Pine David Xanatos <--Scum, as per ICEvPine/David and his general scum play.
14. pappums rat (Awaiting Replacement) <-- ?
15. warriormode <--Investigating.
16. Tomie Uzumaki sorgster <--Town, via Mastin Wagon.
17. Hiraki (Awaiting Replacement) <--Investigating, but prob-town.
19. SomeRandomGuy NanookTheWolf <--Investigating.
20. zMuffinMan <--Town-read.

For consistency's sake:

TOWN:
Edmund (WRONG)
Maxous (RIGHT)
Bowser (YTF,BLR)
Hez (YTF,BLR)
Mal (YTF,BLR)
Tomie/Sorgster (YTF,BLR)

Muffin (YTF,BLR)
GreyICE (RIGHT)

DA REST:
Zdenek
Vezok (town-lean) (YTF,BLR)
Pappums
Warrior
Hiraki (town-lean) (RIGHT)
SRG/Nanook

SCUM:
Empking (WRONG)
Uprising/chk
David Xanatos


Oh, look. My reads then were nearly identical to my reads now.


CURRENT READS (started Day Three; have yet to change):

TOWN:
GreyICE
CSL
Hez
Mal
Sorgster

WEAKER TOWN (BUT STILL TOWN):
Muffin
Vezok

NULL:
chk (in suspect list, but only technically)
Warrior
Pappums

SCUM:
David
Zdenek
Edmund

This is a tl;dr of me. (Sort of a summary of my ISO, you could say.) It helps to see how my thoughts progressed throughout the days to understand my reads, how they changed, and how I interacted. For you, it's to get a better idea of my alignment.
For me, it's because if I can track down my own though progression, I can better understand what I got right and wrong, how I got it right/wrong, and fix it by re-reading and giving the correct, more-informed conclusion.


Yes, this is part of my case, but is mainly IioA. Like VCA*, it's something which has no immediate benefit in posting, but when you do post it, gives extremely valuable insight to analyze. So, "Information, with delayed analysis".

*Speaking of which, I should do some and use it as well.

[mastin2]

mastin2 ( 6 ) -

Toon Fighter

, Tomie Uzumaki,

Maxous

, malpascp,

Phoebus

,

hiplop

Tomie Uzumaki ( 3 ) -

mastin2,

Empking

,

Bowser

somerandomguy ( 2 ) - PranaDevil, warriormode
zMuffinMan ( 2 ) -

somerandomguy

, edmund.angles
Hirarky ( 2 ) - paupam's rat,

GreyICE

paupam's rat ( 1 ) -

Hirarky

Bowser ( 1 ) - Uprising
Phoebus ( 1 ) -

zMuffinMan

Two scum on me. General rule of thumb is that there shouldn't be MORE than two scum on a 6P wagon. This is common effing sense. It could be on ANY player, and I'd say the same; the fact that it's on me is just bonus points.
CONCERNING: No scum on Tomie at this point? It's obviously not me or Edmund, but Bowser has been one of my strongest town-reads.
CONCERNING2: No scum in the (1) voters? Muffin's also been an old town-read. Uprising has gone back and forth, but overall has remained above the line.
PROMISING: There should be two scum in the three (2) wagons, as there are two scum in the (6) wagon. (Same number, after all.) GreyICE and SRG are confirmed town from there. Leaves Pappums, Edmund, Warrior, and Prana/Mint/Zdenek. Guess which two I have a scumread on?

mastin2 ( 5 ) -

Toon Fighter

, Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp,

Phoebus

,

hiplop

Tomie Uzumaki ( 3 ) -

mastin2,

Empking

, Bowser
somerandomguy ( 2 ) - PranaDevil, warriormode
Bowser ( 2 ) - Uprising, edmund.angles
Hirarky ( 2 ) - paupam's rat,

GreyICE

zMuffinMan ( 1 ) -

somerandomguy
paupam's rat ( 1 ) - Hirarky

Phoebus ( 1 ) -

zMuffinMan

hiplop ( 1 ) -

Maxous

Pretty much nothing changed, here, as far as PROMISE/CONCERN goes, aside from:
CONCERNING: Now it's four (1) voters, three of which are confirmed town. The fourth has always been a strong town-read.

mastin2 ( 5 ) -

Toon Fighter

, Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp,

Phoebus

,

hiplop

Tomie Uzumaki ( 4 ) -

mastin2,

Empking

,

Bowser

, Pine
hiplop ( 3 ) -

Maxous

,

Torqez

,

Hirarky

Hirarky ( 2 ) - paupam's rat,

GreyICE

paupam's rat ( 1 ) - warriormode
Bowser ( 1 ) - edmund.angles
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) -

somerandomguy

Phoebus ( 1 ) -

zMuffinMan

Torqez ( 1 ) - PranaDevil

PROMISING: Oh, look. Four on Tomie, now. And guess who is the suspect, there?
PROMISING2: Five (1) voters. That should have 1-2 scum in it, no? (See also: Mastin Wagon with 5, that had two scum on it.) Warrior, Edmund, Muffin, and Prana/Mint/Zdenek. Guess who?
CONCERNING: Was hiplop's 3 voters an all-town wagon? Two fliped town, but Torqez/Hez have been one of my strongest town-reads...

Hirarky ( 1 ) - paupam's rat
paupam's rat ( 1 ) - warriormode
Bowser ( 1 ) - edmund.angles
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) -

somerandomguy

Phoebus ( 1 ) -

zMuffinMan

Torqez ( 1 ) - PranaDevil
Pine ( 1 ) -

GreyICE

Removing the part that's unchanged.
PROMISING: SEVEN (1) voters? There HAS to be two scum in here by this point.

mastin2 ( 5 ) - Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp,

Phoebus

,

hiplop

, edmund.angles
Tomie Uzumaki ( 4 ) -

mastin2,

Empking

,

Bowser

, Pine
hiplop ( 3 ) -

Maxous

,

Torqez

,

Hirarky

paupam's rat ( 1 ) - warriormode
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) -

somerandomguy

Phoebus ( 1 ) -

zMuffinMan

Torqez ( 1 ) - PranaDevil
edmund.angles ( 1 ) - paupam's rat
Toon Fighter ( 1 )-

GreyICE

SUPER UBER PROMISING: One scum comes off of me, and only THEN does Edmund join the wagon on me. Coincidence?
Please refer to my "three scum on a 5/6 wagon" opinion. This matches it perfectly, if Edmund is scum--not joining until his buddy left.
SEMI-PROMISING, SEMI-CONCERNING: Now there's only six (1) voters. Promise, in that there is definitely one scum in here, and Edmund's switch makes it look even more likely. Concern, in that it should be two.

mastin2 ( 4 ) - Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp,

Phoebus

, edmund.angles
Tomie Uzumaki ( 4 ) -

mastin2,

Empking

,

Bowser

, Pine
hiplop ( 4 ) -

Maxous

,

Torqez

,

Hirarky

,

Toon Fighter

Toon Fighter ( 3 )- GreyICE

, vezokpiraka,

hiplop

paupam's rat ( 1 ) - warriormode
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) -

somerandomguy

Phoebus ( 1 ) -

zMuffinMan

edmund.angles ( 1 ) - paupam's rat
Bowser ( 1 ) - MintKitten

CONCERNING: Edmund and Phoebus are next to each other on me.
SEMI-CONCERNING2: Toon wagon currently looks all-town.
PROMISING: Hiplop wagon's fourth member was scum. This gives evidence suggesting the other three are town.
PROMISING2: Five (1) voters, with one of my scumreads in there. It looks good.

Tomie Uzumaki ( 5 ) -

mastin2,

Empking

,

Bowser

, Pine, chkflip

Nothing else changed as far as I can tell in this votecount.
PROMISING: Definitely one scum in here, now.

mastin2 ( 3 ) - Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp,

Phoebus

Bowser ( 3 ) - MintKitten, edmund.angles,

zMuffinMan

Toon Fighter ( 2 )-

GreyICE,

hiplop

paupam's rat ( 1 ) - warriormode
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) -

somerandomguy

edmund.angles ( 1 ) - paupam's rat
Hirarky ( 1 ) - vezokpiraka

PROMISING: Only one scum left on my (3) wagon STRONGLY indicates the other members present are town.
PROMISING2: There's definitely scum on the Bowser wagon, now.
CONCERNING: ...But are there really two? Mint/Zdenek and Edmund are right next to each other, on such a small wagon. :/
CONCERNING2: Four (1) voters; are they all town?

Tomie Uzumaki ( 5 ) -

mastin2,

Empking

,

Bowser

, Pine, chkflip
hiplop ( 5 ) -

Maxous

,

Torqez

,

Hirarky

,

Toon Fighter

, paupam's rat
mastin2 ( 5 ) - Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp,

Phoebus

, GreyICE

, vezokpiraka
Bowser ( 3 ) - MintKitten, edmund.angles,

zMuffinMan

Toon Fighter ( 1 )-

hiplop

Maxous ( 1 ) - warriormode
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) -

somerandomguy

Nothing but promise, here. There's proven one scum on two of the five; I say it's 92% likely that the third (5) wagon also has a scum on it. And that no more than one scum is on each. (That's only about 90%, but still.)
As for the rest?
Combine the three (1) wagons into a single (3) wagon. Then, combine both the (3) wagons into a single (6) wagon. You have 1-2 scum, which is exactly what I should have.

hiplop ( 6 ) - Maxous, Torqez, Hirarky, Toon Fighter, paupam's rat, GreyICE
Tomie Uzumaki ( 5 ) - mastin2, Empking, Bowser, Pine, chkflip
mastin2 ( 4 ) - Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp, Phoebus, vezokpiraka
Bowser ( 2 ) - MintKitten, edmund.angles
Toon Fighter ( 2 )- hiplop, zMuffinMan
Maxous ( 1 ) - warriormode
zMuffinMan ( 1 ) - somerandomguy

Too lazy to code, since nothing really important has changed. ICE is the only new name to Hiplop, and was taken away from me. Bowser now only has two, and Toon has two. Both (1) voters are scum, there's one scum minimum in the (2) voters; hiplop's confirmed town and Muffin's a town-read, so one of {Mint, Edmund} is GUARANTEED scum.

hiplop ( 9 ) -

Maxous

,

Torqez

,

Hirarky

,

Toon Fighter

, paupam's rat,

GreyICE

,

Bowser

, vezokpiraka,

malpascp

Tomie Uzumaki ( 4 ) -

mastin2,

Empking

, Pine, chkflip
mastin2 ( 3 ) - Tomie Uzumaki, malpascp,

Phoebus

Bowser ( 3 ) - MintKitten, edmund.angles,

Empking

zMuffinMan ( 2 ) - somerandomguy, hiplop
Toon Fighter ( 1 )- zMuffinMan
Maxous ( 1 ) - warriormode

SUPER UBER CONCERNING: Does Hiplop really only have one scum on him at L-2?!?
PROMISING: The (6) wagon comprised of two (3) wagons should have two scum.
CONCERNING2: ...Yet my reads have it as actually being three.

This is roughly half-way to the end of the day (Day1 was...quite long ), so posting.

[mastin2]

Last I knew, wasn't ICE V/LA?

(As for me...simple: busy Wednesday, Thursday, and most of today, combined quite frankly with extreme lethargic boredom.)

[mastin2]

Small problem with the chk wagon.

chkflip ( 5 ) - edmund.angles, GreyICE, David Xanatos/Pine, Amrun/PR, Hez

The people on it. (I'm assuming mod missed GreyICE's vote.)

Apparently GreyICE's vote is invisible because

i keep bloody forgetting to put it in the right spot.

Hez can be town. See also: replacing Torqez.
ICE can be town. See also: vote stealing power.
David can't be, due to ICE/Pine interactions not being townVtown.
Edmund's been one of my strongest scumreads since page one.
And Pappums has been a null read of mine (slipping both ways multiple times) overall for the entire game.
Plus, it's based off of the case one of my suspects--Zdenek--created, meaning Zdenek could join the wagon as well.


You see my problem with this, no? I really can't see the town push behind this wagon. Two of effectively six. If you're extremely generous, you can call it three of five. (Remove Zdenek who isn't technically voting chk, and move Amrun/PR to town just for the sake of it.) But even that incredible stretch doesn't make the wagon very apetizing.

It's a mislynch.

[mastin2]

chkflip ( 7 ) - edmund.angles, GreyICE, David Xanatos/Pine, Amrun/PR, Hez, CSL, Vezokpiraka

...

[mastin2]

Loss of words.

Complete, total, loss of words.

We're going to mislynch.
AGAIN.

For the second day IN A ROW.

Because people will be ignoring me.
AGAIN.

Despite me having been right.
AGAIN.


Chk's as good as confirmed town to me, right now.
As was Maxous. (And, oh, look! I was right! He flipped

exactly

what I said he would!)

[mastin2]

And in case you can't tell, chk is at L-1.

Tell me I'm wrong. That I can have faith in people waiting and not hammering immediately. I DARE you to.

Since history has shown me that in this game, oh, look. We're trigger-happy! Maxous was lynched without a claim! He flipped town, because all evidence pointed to him being town! His wagon was scum-driven to an extreme, and you let. it. happen.


Now, chk is at L-1. I give him a 25% chance of being able to claim before a hammer. I give him a 95% chance of flipping town, since that's what the evidence is saying to me. His wagon is scum-driven to an extreme, and I'll call two scum MINIMUM on it.

And I dunno 'bout you, but I'm not letting it happen.

[mastin2]

The main point against chk is basically this. A late mention of Toon.

Let's look at his ISO, shall we?

"I've skimmed the game, but looks like Edmund, Tomie, and Hiplop are scum."

This is essentially what I like to call a "sight-read". (I do 'em all the time, with surprising accuracy.) Skimming the game, and making reads essentially off of instinct, with maybe one or two notes as to why. It's essentially what you get on your first impression, and it is incredibly valuable.


More than that, his first true post?

I love it when a good RVS wagon comes together. *lights cigar*

"I", "love", "it", "when", "a", and "good" are links to the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth Mastin-voters, respectively. Among them?

Toon.

So, saying chk didn't mention Toon until then is a blatant lie. Click on links, people. They have importance.

[mastin2]

Additional counter, from that same post.

The second of Mastin's RVS wagon votes to appear even more serious is Phoebus', which at the time had zero explination. Something zMuffin unshockingly picks right up on before Mr. Hall Monitor can come in with his reason. Phoebus doesn't seem like a very active poster, but his meta-historic reason to back his vote seems not only contrived, but a strong attempt to sway the town by way of calling out Mastin's overall merit.

Heavy Phoebus suspicion. That, alone, would counter any theoretical lack of Toon suspicion, which I just showed you he did have a mention of. He rightfully called scum on my wagon.

And We come to ISO 4. Chk was still catching up in this post, and makes an effectively early mention of Toon, in comparison. Since his other posts?

ISO Zero: catching up.
ISO One: Sight-reads; promise to read properly.
ISO Two: catching up and delivering solid content.
ISO Three: responding to content on current page. Still catching up.
ISO Four: still catching up and names Toon as scum (with Tomie).

That's not a late mention of Toon.
That's an INCREDIBLY EARLY mention of Toon.

The wagon on him's got it backwards. His mention of Toon wasn't late. It was EARLY. Meaning it's not evidence he's scum. It's strong evidence he's TOWN.

[mastin2]

I love it when a good RVS wagon comes together. *lights cigar*

I'm a fan of the "second vote of an RVS wagon" scumtell and believe there to be at least one scum between edmund and Tomie because of it.

The second of Mastin's RVS wagon votes to appear even more serious is Phoebus', which at the time had zero explination. Something zMuffin unshockingly picks right up on before Mr. Hall Monitor can come in with his reason. Phoebus doesn't seem like a very active poster, but his meta-historic reason to back his vote seems not only contrived, but a strong attempt to sway the town by way of calling out Mastin's overall merit.

Relevant pieces.

[mastin2]

Unvote, VOTE: David Xanatos

. Now we're talkin'.

[mastin2]

Right now? Presumably, town, though he hasn't said so for a while. As for at the time of the post?

Mastin, on the other hand, used a lot of IIoA with those early lists by way of throwing a lot of town reads out there without much base. Don't really see scum doing that, however, so I've got a townread on that slot overall.

His post strongly implied back then that this read was strengthened.

[mastin2]

Hey, Amrun.
You know you're acting like classic scum, right?

Bandwagoning, fencesitting, weasel wording that leaves a back door open to get out if need be...

When TF and hiplop wagons were big in day one, mastin told everyone that they are both town and he refuses to vote either.

And hiplop flipped...oh, yeah. Town. You're not helping your point by including someone I was RIGHT about as an argument AGAINST me being RIGHT again.

Now he starts a deflection away from chkflip onto Xanatos.

Right. A deflection onto Xanatos. Who I've been trying to lynch since the dawn of Day Two. I deflected from Maxous (flipped town) onto Edmund/David on Day Two. Totally scum motivated, right? Oh, and GreyICE must be scum too, right? He deflected away from chkflip onto Xanatos as well! Definitely scum!

Yeah.

Toon Fighter ( 11 ) - zMuffinMan, chkflip, Empking, edmund.angles, warriormode, hiplop, David Xanatos, HezLucky, sorgster, Bowser, vezokpiraka

Oh, look! chkflip is the second voter on the Scum Lynch! He's totally bussing scum!

Maxous ( 10 ) - GreyICE, Zdenek, warriormode, malpascp, HezLucky, CSL, Empking, sorgster, David Xanatos, GreyICE (vezok if not for the double vote)

Oh, look! chk is NOT on the MISLYNCH of Maxous! Totally makes him scum!

chkflip ( 7 ) - edmund.angles,

GreyICE

, David Xanatos/Pine, Amrun/PR, Hez,

CSL

, Vezokpiraka, sorgster, zdenek

Oh, look. Currently only one strong town-read of mine (Hez) on the chk wagon. Plus three scumreads. Totally town-driven wagon!

Yeah, Zdenek. In trying to convince me chkflip is a good wagon...you showed the opposite, and demonstrated exactly why he SHOULDN'T be lynched.


Let's not forget these key facts as well.
-Chk's wagon formed literally overnight. It's a quickwagon. Quickwagons are almost NEVER on scum.
-David Xanatos's wagon and Edmund's wagon have both slowly gained momentum over time, yet have had quickwagons (Maxous, and now chkflip) distract off of them. This is a STRONG indicator that they're scum, since short of a cop guilty, it's ALWAYS harder to lynch scum than it is town.


You guys ignored my ranting on Maxous, and look where it landed you. A mislynch, which I predicted perfectly, since I knew I was right on him.

Listen to me on chk.

chkflip. Is. A. Mislynch.

[mastin2]

Amrun:

I realize your devotion to this game is not that high. Yet I seem to recall (correct me if I'm wrong) you pulling pretty much this exact maneuver in Flash Mafia 3. As the Mafia Janitor.

Compare and Contrast with Planet of Hats. Memory's a bit shaky for there as well, but I recall Your devotion to that game was not too high, either. But you still managed to play a solid game.

Mind explaining to me how I'm remembering things wrong?

Mastin, who are the scum on the wagons?

My opinions on this matter should be plenty clear.

Toon Fighter ( 11 ) -

zMuffinMan, chkflip

,

Empking

,

edmund.angles

, warriormode,

hiplop

,

David Xanatos

,

HezLucky, sorgster, Bowser

, vezokpiraka

Right in the middle of the wagon. Edmund. David. Town-reads on Muffin, chk, Hez, Sorgster, and Bowser. Zero scum flipped. Empking and Hiplop confirmed town. Leaves Edmund (in prime wagoning position--middle), warrior, David (in prime bussing position--the back end of the middle, middle-late), and Vezok (hammer). Four names, two of whom I have been consistently pressuring since day one.

Maxous ( 10 ) -

GreyICE

,

Zdenek

, warriormode,

malpascp, HezLucky, CSL

,

Empking

,

sorgster

,

David Xanatos

, GreyICE (vezok if not for the double vote)

ICE = confirmed town. Mal, Hez, CSL, and Sorgster all town-reads of mine. Empking's dead. Leaves you, Warrior, David, and honorary-vezok as a would-be-hammer if not for ICE.

chkflip (

honorary 9

) -

edmund.angles

,

GreyICE

,

David Xanatos/Pine

, Amrun/PR,

Hez, CSL

, Vezokpiraka,

sorgster

,

zdenek

ICE confirmed town. Hez, CSL, and Sorgster all town-reads of mine. Leaves Edmund, David, Amrun, Vezok, and you. Two of them I've been pressuring since day one. One of them I've also been pressuring a little, leaning both ways at different times. (Amrun.) Then there's you, which was a new suspicion of mine.

@sorgster and mastin:
Why is the second vote on a scum wagon unlikely to be bussing?

Simple. When there are two extremely large wagons on pro-town players, which the scum can very easily get onto without much suspicion...they choose to go onto/remain on the much smaller wagon of their scumbuddy?

Yeahno.

Come at me. Let's see Mastin get it all wrong again! :3

BRING IT ON!

Quoting this for reference. By itself, it's not a scumslip.

I'd prefer a Mastin lynch today above all

...Until you combine it with THIS. First quote implies: "Mastin's wrongtown."
Second quote implies: "Mastin's scum."

Contradiction. You can't think I'm wrong and scum at the same time.

It's further backed by this:

Come at me. I do so enjoy Veteran players being unable to read me for shit. :3

Since guess what? I've been playing since October '08 (mastin2 was created on my scumday), and have well over 40 (non-marathon; that'd bump it to over 50. not offsite; that'd bump it into the hundreds ) games under my belt. That certainly qualifies me for veteran status. Implying "vets are wrong about me" implies people like me (a vet) are wrong. Yet he thinks I'm scum. Those two thoughts do not mix.

[mastin2]

Here, I'll make Phoebus/Lew easy on you.

Vote: Mastin

I'm least concerned about whether mastin is worried about appearing town during later ISOs or whether he is a wallcoholic or what have you.
I had a horrendous sense of déjà vu on page 2 once the multiple consecutive posts started appearing from mastin.

I would just rather not have to wade through all of that in later parts of the game when trying to ISO someone, whether that be mastin or anyone else.

Mastin: You claim in your signature that it isn't your job to be convincing, it's your job to be right... or something similar. How can you be wrong about things/people if you're going to churn out 10 posts/per page? It's like an old medium's trick: Go to an English person and claim to be speaking to someone named J. Last Initial and you'd hard pressed not to find a John, Jack or James somewhere in the family. Throw enough things at the wall and see what sticks.

On your wiki, Mastin, you also claim you want to be a better player and that you wouldn't log in back as Mastin for having lost a bet. Isn't it a bit disingenuous of you to be playing practically the same way now, what? three years after? the last game I played with you... albeit under a different login... and then to claim you want to do better? Isn't this exactly what brought you your first infamy?

I'm more than willing to pay attention to what you have to say... and be utterly unconvinced of you being right; and being gobsmacked if/when you are... if stuff would just come from you in smaller doses.

In other words, Mastin hatred is all you get. Lewarcher gives more.

mastin, I need some links to your meta, both as town and scum. It would be a big help. I have read the first pages and I am confused by what you have been doing. A lot of stuff turns around your kick-off posts, and not knowing you is a problem. Thanks.

"Quite frankly, I don't get this guy."

This is the first thing which could qualify as content, though it obviously isn't real content. Nor is this:

mastin: I see no games of yours in which you made a list of townreads and scumreads so ridiculously early as you did here. Is it normal for you to just pronounce yourself about who is town and who is scum 5 seconds after gamestart?

edmund: no. We are having replacements, I am the first, many other have to come. There is no way mod won't grant an extension, so your proposal sucks, and is even a little scummy.

vezok: if you wanna end the day before I am catched up, do it without my vote, and seen the general level of the cases I have seen, at your own risk.

But I'd be quite shocked if both Edmund and Vezok are town from it.

Spoiler: first content

catch up part 1

2. edmund.angles <--Very minor scum-lean.
3. PranaDevil <--Very minor town-lean.
4. hiplop <--Flip-flops, so null.
8. Uprising <--Flip-flops, but overall leans town. (So, very minorly.)
9. Torqez <--Town.
10. Maxous <---Also town.
13. Pine
14. pappums rat <--I'm guessing town.
16. Tomie Uzumaki <--Scumz.
17. Hiraki <--Null. I'll look more into this.
18. Toon Fighter <--Town.
19. SomeRandomGuy <--Very slight town-read.
20. zMuffinMan <--Also a very slight town-read.

The gaps are people who I have trouble judging the content on, so far.

^this is absolute folly. And I see no pro-town reason for doing it. But again: as someone will later say: who would take this seriously? Common! There are two possible explanation. Mastin is a VI (which I kinda think) or he is trying to end the RVS before it starts. No more than this.

More Mastin hatred from the slot.

mastin 45-54: see above.

At this point Bowser moves his vote to Tomie... at this point I would have probably moved my vote to bowser.

Bowser/CSL suspicion.

Uprising post 83: OMFGWITG???????? (oh my f god who is this guy?) mastin's reads were ACCURATE? here I would have moved my vote to Uprising, with much more convintion tha I would have had voting Bowser.

posts 90-91: Muffin and Maxous get town-points for this. But my vote would remain on Uprisung

Uprising/chk suspicion, minor Muffin/Maxous interactions which suggest both are town.

94-96: Tomie has a point here....

mastin 104: I have played with some of the biggest VI'S sitewise, and still I never get used to it. This post makes me wanna se mastin hang regardless from his alignment.

Prana 106: this sounds like town-Prana to me...

Tomie's now sorgster, and (this one's important) Prana's now Zdenek. More Mastin hatred.

mastin2 111: ok, look, I am starting to think joining this game was not a good idea...

now tell me exactly what your torquez town-read was based on

.

post 130: I am liking this malpascp person.

uprising 132: why not? What is wrong with it?

How do you scumhunt without hypothesiosing connectins?

My vote would still be here.

MORE mastin hatred, likes Mal (additional evidence Mal's town--see also: Maxous/Muffin above), and more suspicion of uprising/chk.

pine 138-139: I know how you play scum and I will not allow you to use your short posts in which you do not explain the reasons behind your actions. You claim to have re-read.

Then explain why Tomie is scum.

Prana 144: meh... way to use 20 lines to say stuff you could say in 10 words.

These are both important, since Pine is now David Xanatos, and Prana is now Zdenek. Lew switches his Prana read from Prana-town to Prana-meh.

hiplop 147: hiplop is wrong, muffin is right. and saying muffin is distracting town is ridiculous. Who is distracting town is mastin (prolly a town VI) and whoever tries to make cases because of his lists.

Hiplop-interaction, Muffin interaction, Mastin hatred.

pappum's 149: I can agreee with the contents, that look town, but none of them is original/new content at this point. Null.

Fencesitting on Pappums.

Hiraki 155: again: goodposting, but damn, why is everyone ignoring uprising scummy lurking?

Buddying up to Hiraki (now confirmed town), just like Muffin and Maxous above. (Further evidence Muffin is town.)

mastin 159: sneaky move. This is a sneaky move. If a player who has joined in 2011 is stupid enought to think they can play good in a large closed setup, it's their problem. The odds of getting scum are the same.

Too lazy to check context of what my 159 IS, but most likely, Mastin hate.

pappums 162: reasonable meta analysis.

Can someone confirm?

More fencesitting on Pappums. (This is Amrun's slot, btw, so naturally, she won't be looking too much into things like this.)

hiplop 182: you. need. to. post. cases.

Hiplop interactions.

mod 188: the brilliant result of mastin's strategy. leading wagons are mastin and tomie. Prolly both town.

"Mastin and Tomie are both town". (Yet he really hates my guts and wanted to lynch me, anyway...)

Uprising 190: OMFG how come no one votes this guy????

Uprising suspicion.

Tomie 199: u r right about pine.

Presumably (too lazy to check context) a weak attack against Pine.

Uprising 204: oh come on!!!

More uprising suspicion.

Mintkitten 248: I guess this post is th ebeginning of bowser's wagon, right?

Mint interaction.

And I can tell you from this that Pine/David, Prana/Zdenek, Edmund, and Pappums/Amrun are all figures of extreme interest, whereas Muffin and Uprising (among others) are pretty town.

as of where I am now (more or less post 400), my vote would be on chk or on hiplop. Don't understand much of the bowser wagon, but it may depend on the fact that I am not entirely caught up.

Hiplop's confirmed town.

Really, his ISO's a jackpot. I need to go to bed, right now (shoulda done so half an hour ago, but couldn't resist), but I easily could continue and show you lots of fun stuff.

Heck, I could do it for Toon, too, since I'm sure Amrun's definition of interesting content differs from my own.

[mastin2]

CAN YOU GUYS FAIL ANY HARDER?!?

malpascp ( 4 ) - zMuffinMan, Zdenek, chkflip, hezlucky

YOU GUYS ARE LYNCHING CONFIRMED TOWN WHO IS JUST AS CONFIRMED--

IF NOT

MORE

--AS MAXOUS WAS TO ME.

Mal was one of the six Mastin voters. You know, which included Toon and Phoebus/Lew. You know, the wagon which I've defended as having the remaining four members be all town, and have thusfar proved to be half-right. (Hiplop? Town. Maxous, the mislynch yesterday? I CALLED HIM TOWN TOO!)

More than that, it's a quickwagon to counter the David wagon that has been building up, meaning it's on town. Seriously, four votes in, what? Less than 24 hours? Actually, make that less than FOUR. A quickwagon with an average of one vote per hour. YOU DON'T GET WAGONS ON SCUM GOING THAT QUICKLY.


And guess who's on there?

Zdenek.

David is our lynch today

.

[mastin2]

I am one of said four votes and I am town so you're expecting me to find scum amongst the other three.

Yes. Zdenek, more specifically.

You're assuming that scum was keeping track of who else was on the wagon at the time (hint: when they see an "easy lynch", they may miss that their partners are already on the wagon) OR it's entirely possible that Phoebus jumped on the mastin wagon in spite of two buddies already being on it just for the sake of it.

I'm telling you. Across all of my games, I've never seen a scumteam wagon a player like that without justification. It just doesn't happen. Least of all, on a loose cannon. Would you expect 60% of a scumteam to wagon, say, Fate? Not if they wanted to make it past day three, they wouldn't.

And which is simpler?

Phoebus decided to go against his natural scum instincts, simply ignoring all the dangers of putting too many scum on a single wagon, just for the heck of it...
...Or that Phoebus knew there was little to no risk?

Occam's Razor-->no more than two scum on my wagon-->mal is town.

Do you think malpascp is town independent of that one thing?

Yes. I was considering pulling a few things from his ISO to demonstrate it.

Tell me who's scum when DavidX flips town?

In the theoretical situation where he flips town despite EVERYTHING pointing to the contrary? Edmund, Zdenek, and one other I've concluded was town because I was certain these three were scum, likely within my neutral list. (Helpful hint: he won't.)

Tell me, who's scum when mal flips town? (Helpful hint: he will.)

[mastin2]

To elaborate on a few points above:

I was considering pulling a few things from his ISO to demonstrate it.

Decided it wasn't necessary, because there quite frankly wasn't anything in his ISO which looked like scum. Add in the things which look town, and his overall view looks town.

Edmund, Zdenek, and one other I've concluded was town because I was certain these three were scum, likely within my neutral list.

NULL:
chk (in suspect list, but only technically)
Warrior
Pappums

SCUM:
David
Zdenek
Edmund

Surprise, surprise! This list hasn't changed at all.

[mastin2]

Right.
If I am alive tomorrow.

People listen to me.

Because two mislynches?
IN A ROW?

That I specifically told people NOT TO GO THROUGH WITH?

Yeah, try to ignore me again after I've proven myself to have been right yet again.

[mastin2]

Put bluntly:
TOWN: GreyICE
CSL
Hez
Mal
Sorgster

WEAKER TOWN (BUT STILL TOWN):
Muffin
Vezok

NULL:
chk (in suspect list, but only technically)
Warrior
Pappums

SCUM:
David
Zdenek
Edmund (?)

Oh, look. Today is the only day in this game where start to finish, my reads haven't changed at all! Maybe that's because, y'know, I'm actually locking onto things? The exact same thing which gets me nightkilled around here?

Yeah, that.

Mal will flip town. And tomorrow, you'll be gunning after Sorgster no doubt, despite my vocal protests against that. I can see it now. "Oh, look, Mastin was right about three of the four unconfirmed players on his wagon being town. That must mean the last one's scum, right?"

Too lazy to do the math to know when lylo is, but if you survive that mislynch,

"Oh, whoops, my bad. Looks like Mastin was right about all four of those reads, about his wagon containing only two scum. My apologies for not having listened."


YEAH, WELL SCREW THAT. OVER MY DEAD BODY.

(Yeah, go ahead scum. Kill me. I dare you to. Prove me to be a threat. Prove me to be annoying. Prove me to be dangerous to you. Prove me right. It's the ultimate middle finger I can give to you, for you to kill me, to get me out of the way. But I'm not letting you win this game.)

[mastin2]

malpascp ( 6 ) - zMuffinMan, Zdenek, chkflip, edmund.angles, GreyICE, David Xanatos

This seems strangely familiar. Oh, right. What was ICE's wording, here?

mastin2 ( 6 ) - Toon Fighter, Tomie Uzumaki, Maxous, malpascp, Phoebus, hiplop

Two scum minimum, bookmark it.

Yeah. Definitely two scum on this wagon. It's not ICE. It's probably not Muffin, and I doubt it's chk. What's left: Zdenek, edmund, David.

YOU SERIOUSLY THINK THIS IS A TOWN-DRIVEN WAGON?!? HECK. NO.

[mastin2]

Ah, screw that all. We have this game won, no matter what. Why?

If the scum let me live, I'll destroy them. I'll push for their lynch, I'll put together the cases needed, I'll take control of this town, I will stop the Moronic Mislynches, I will shut down their gates, give them no outs, pressure them, and keep them on their toes, until they die.

If the scum kill me, they'll be admitting that I was at least a nuisance. That I was on the right track and was stopping them from being given breathing room.

You might as well surrender now, scum. I have you. Any action you take will only prove me victorious.

You lost the moment Maxous was mislynched and I proved to have been right on one of my strongest reads.
You lost the moment I turned around and began to get things right.
You lost the moment Day Three dawned.

[mastin2]

You forget SRG/Nanook, who I also read as town.
And you're forgetting that Mal's mislynch will tip the scales further towards "Mastin's actually been right this game?!?". And the results of the night will prove once more that I'm right, via the dead bodies flipping exactly what I said they will.

Put bluntly. When tomorrow dawns, regardless of whether I live or die. The town will listen to my reads, because they'll realize exactly what they already suspected: the longer I live, the more dangerous I am...to the scum. They'll realize that my early reads might not have been perfect, but my later reads have been getting better and better. They'll realize that I was on to something. They'll realize that I actually knew what I was saying, that I was right about everything I had said so far, and will therefore follow the rest of what I say.

Hence, why regardless of what the scum do, they've already lost.

[mastin2]

but i wouldnt know im not any good

Unvote, vote: malpascp

You have no idea...

YOU JUST PUT ONE OF THE MOST OBV-TOWN PLAYERS IN THIS GAME TO L EFFING ONE. Lynch minus one vote. L-1.

AND YOU MIGHT BE LAUGHING NOW, THINKING, "Ha, hah, Mastin's so wrong this game, it shouldn't be funny."

WELL JOKES ON YOU, GUYS. WHEN MAL FLIPS VANILLA TOWNIE, YOU WILL LOOK AT THE THREAD SHOCKED, THINKING THAT MASTIN COULDN'T HAVE ACTUALLY DONE HIS

JOB

AND

GET A READ RIGHT

.

So go on! MISLYNCH MAL FOR ALL I CARE. THE PRIDE IS ALWAYS GREATEST BEFORE THE FALL.

[mastin2]

Now why am I not surprised you've cast your third (well, third attempted) hammer in a row, Vezok?
Why am I not surprised that people ignored me once again despite my protests that Mal is town?

Why am I not surprised to know that this was a scumdriven wagon?

Oh, right. Because these are all things that I've been saying THE WHOLE FREAKIN' DAY.

[mastin2]

Right, GreyICE.

STEAL THE VOTE FROM THE GUY WHOSE ACCURACY RATING IS HIGHER THAN YOURS THIS GAME. TOTALLY A GOOD MOVE.

For those keeping track? I've now been right about three additional names, making the score SEVEN TO THREE. A

70%

accuracy rating. AND GREYICE JUST STOLE MY VOTE.