Mini 578 - Mistery at Montescuro - Game Over!

[Dasquian]

/confirmed

[Dasquian]

Morning, everyone.

I don't know most of you guys so hopefully this is for no one in particular, but: I hate lurking, and find it scummy if done deliberately. I'm going to be doing my best to hunt scum, but I won't be letting any lurkers go unnoticed or unpressured. Do us all a favour and don't make that the topic of conversation

Vote: Near

[Dasquian]

My experience is that anyone dropping third votes this soon isn't doing it to lynch, they're doing it to get discussion going and so is probably a pro-town tell. Conversely, I'll buy into the theory that people near the end of the voting order were doing less-than-random-random-votes to avoid standing out, which is a very mild scum-tell.

Mild or not, it's a good place to start:

unvote Near, vote VampanezeHunter

. Particularly since the above nearly completely contradicts his last post

[Dasquian]

There's not much in it, but VH was the last person to place a vote on one of the few people left with no votes. When JamesthePhox' wagon got to 3 votes, he was then first to remove his vote. So that's twice he's tried to avoid being on a bandwagon compared to JtP's once, and I got slightly scummy vibes from his post 47.

Lots of questions at this stage is good. Any scum suspects from the answers you're getting?

[Dasquian]

Well VH, you said...

Also same question as everyone else. Why feel that because someone has 2 votes you need to have 3? Could it be scum following the more experienced member? Is this idea farfetched? Should I stop asking questions? lol?
I know it takes many votes but this could be a subtle scumtell. Scum getting on a Wagon ASAP to avoid suspicion.

...and I said...

My experience is that anyone dropping third votes this soon isn't doing it to lynch, they're doing it to get discussion going and so is probably a pro-town tell.

...so your position, being at odds with mine, raised you ever-so-slightly in the suspicion stakes.

Is Near the only person yet to post in this game?

[Dasquian]

Wow, this game is going at quite a pace.

Near's FOS on VampanezeHunter for not OMGUSing me is weird and I don't agree with it. Other people have said this, and now I'm saying it too. I also don't like Near saying "it was a joke" - didn't seem like a joke at the time.

I totally agree with Guardian's stance on day length. 2 pages is clearly too short, but over about 10 we're heading into diminishing returns land. If we can hit a lynch by around page 8 or 9, I think we'll have done a good job. I also agree with Yos2 that he's more likely to be sparking discussion than attempting to manipulate us; but I see this as more as a null-tell than anything. He could be scum, but his questioning isn't a case.

I'm not unvoting VH on principle (he hasn't posted since acquiring his votes), but

FOS: Near

for his weird OMGUS-fos and backpeddling. Not buying the Guardian case.

[Dasquian]

Well,

I

thought it was serious, because you actually did FOS him and gave a reason, and gave no signs of it being a hilarious gag. Saying it was a joke seems like a cop-out afterthought.

[Dasquian]

I would agree with that. The case against VH is a weak early game case, I know, but it's still valid and he's yet to respond to it. The case against Phox is similar, but I prefer VH's and I don't really understand why Guardian favours it.

Near's case is a good one too, and one I may lend my support to after deciding what I'm doing with my VH vote.

I think the logical extension of concluding that they're scum together is possible, but assumes too much for this stage of the game.

[Dasquian]

Sorry guys was sleeping reading through now...

That was 19 hours ago... are you awake and reread now?

[Dasquian]

Just checking in - I'm in a holding pattern, refusing to unvote VH until he posts. Silence is not a defence. I still think Near is a likely candidate for scum too, and support his L-2 status - he should know that I am liable to put him at L-1 or hammer him if VH makes himself a less appealing target.

[Dasquian]

Good call. VH, I meant what I said in my first post. Don't make this about you lurking: if you'd posted earlier my vote would probably be on Near by now.

As for Near: Sorry Near, but if your FOSes were jokes, they simply didn't come across as such, and I'm going to continue to count them against you. Chalk it up to experience. However, rest of post did look like genuine scum-hunting and I'm leaning back to neutral on him atm.

I would say VH tops my scum-list (obviously) but actually nearly everyone else I have a neutral or neutral-leaning-town stance on. Not very helpful right now, so I'll do some rereading.

[Dasquian]

Ditto.

Note my restraint in not using

that

smiley

[Dasquian]

Hi Coron - what did you think of the case I had against VH, such as it was?

Joudas - yeah, I have a low post-count atm. That's largely due to me picking my target to be someone who then flaked on us I would've been much happier arguing with VH than waiting for him to get replaced. I stayed out of the Phox/you/Guardian mess because I couldn't make much of it, and I didn't want to take the spotlight off of VH.

Going to reread.

[Dasquian]

Target to pressure, and potentially see lynched.

My case was that he was one of the last voters in a "random" voting stage that left us with 1 vote apiece. He was also then very quick to remove said vote once it became part of a larger bandwagon, showing a peculiar aversion to contributing towards a bandwagon.

[Dasquian]

Fair enough, it was only a page 2 vote, just wanted to get your reaction to it before removing the vote, seeing as the game has progressed beyond that quality of bandwagon now.

Unvote: Coron

.

[Dasquian]

OK, I gone an' dun a reread.

Top suspects, in no particular order: Near, JamesThePhox, Pyrodwarf, EvilGorillaz, Guardian

Near is going to get my vote.

Vote Near

. To be honest the bulk of the weight of this vote is his style, which seems to me to be a strange combination of nonchalance and forced concern. Pretty much everything he's done this game has been scummy though, from his first post, his extended periods of lurking as the spotlight moves off of him, and his vote on Phox (this one more about the lack of accompanying justification, rather than the target itself).

His only "townie" post was his big defence in post 142, when he first came under fire, and that's notable for him providing two suspects but not actually dropping an accompanying vote (he kept his on Yosarian2).

JamesThePhox - This one's a circumstantial note, really. In post 122 Yos2 noted something that rang true, when he FOSed Near but didn't vote him in a very wishy-washy post that both attacked Near but gave him lots of doubt.

Pyrodwarf - The thing that stands out most about Pyrodwarf for me is that, more than once, he responds to accusation by insisting on knowing what the case against him is. This isn't a clear scum-tell by any means, but in my limited experience, I think scum are more prone to wanting to know why a townie has tagged them, due to a fear that they've given themselves away somewhere.

EvilGorillaz - I've had no beef with his suspicions and stances (since they've coincided with mine at times), but people have pointed out that he's been quite quiet, and he has.

Guardian - The least of my suspicions, really, but I still wanted to note it. I generally approve of the strategy of kickstarting discussion with spurious accusations and direct questions, but it got to the point where he carried on asking them and delivering little of his own thoughts. I also couldn't agree with his focus on JamesThePhox at the time (or at the time, on the reread) over VampanezeHunter, even though I would rank Phox over Coron right now.

I certainly wouldn't support a Guardian bandwagon, but I didn't like his play around pages 4-6ish.


Right now I think our plan should be this: get Near to L-2, L-1 if necessary, because he needs the kick up the jacksy to do anything, hear his claim, and make a call.

[Dasquian]

Near? You're on L-2.

[Dasquian]

Do you think he is a better lynch than Near? If so, why?

[Dasquian]

I see no reason to take my vote off of Near.

Near, we're going to lynch someone today. Currently it looks like you. If you're pro-town, letting this happen will do the town a disservice, so why shouldn't we lynch you?

This is why we

should

lynch you: you are non-committal to the point of insult, which is a scum-tell, as trying to get someone you know to be innocent lynched as scum is pretty scary. Also, you're prone to extreme lurking while being active on the site, giving excuses about the game not having enough going on - sorry, but you getting bandwagonned is something you can definitely comment about sooner than L-2.

You say that "not posting a lot" isn't a very good case. You're right, it's not, but when you're avoiding the spotlight like you have been, you're avoiding the opportunity to give the town a better case, which is beneficial to scum and hence is anti-town.

[Dasquian]

"To the point of insult" might have been a little excessive on the reread, so my apologies for that. But, you know, you're pretty non-committal!

As for making stuff up... the only people who have to make cases up are scum. The rest of the town

know

there are bad guys out there, it's just a case of allocating the two/three-person's worth of blame that's sloshing around

[Dasquian]

Uck, this sounds like a weak attempt to get Near out of the noose.

If we think he's scummy, he should be lynched. Finding links is something that can be done in retrospect and unless they're glaringly obvious to the point of creating an unarguable dependency chain ("if A is scum, so is B..."), I find it suspect when people try to make or break lynches on theoretical links.

Put another way... if candidate A is scummy and has no links, and candidate B is scummyish but less so, but has had some clashes with a number of other players, the right lynch IMO is still candidate A.

Of course, if someone makes themselves scummy by apparently buddying or distancing themselves, that's another matter; that's scummy behaviour

before

you consider the validity of that implied link.

[Dasquian]

Also keep in mind how easy people got me to L-2. In two different occasions because I wasn't participating enough in this game. While I do agree that it is fair to vote against me because I wasn't contributing enough, I still find it interesting how easy and without opposition I was put at L-2. From my perspective, I am inclined to think that most of the scums were/are on my bandwagon both times.

Sure, they were probably bussing you

[Dasquian]

Pfft. I am more than happy with today's play having been pressuring VH and Near. Both were scummy, both deserve attention. And anyway...

His attention to them and no others, and his willingness to carry that to a lynch, is what makes him suspicious.

Er, no? In a recent post (227), I actually called out 5 people (including yourself, coincidentally), and said why I found them questionable and/or scummy. So, what? Should I be flailing in three or four directions trying to get a number of people lynched? That would have given you a different angle to attack me with, I guess.

Also, if you argument is going for the "big" wagons and my "attention to them and no others", then, what about Near? He's been pushed to L-2 twice now and all he can do is cite vague suspicion of JamesThePhox, and corollary suspicion of Coron.

I actually don't understand at what point picking your two scummiest players and trying to get them lynched became scummy play.

Anyway:

So what makes Near scummier then other people? Aside from his lack of posting, of course.

Well, there's nearly everything he said:

1) Crazy FOS which got back-peddled as being a joke.
2) Painfully non-committal attempts at scum-hunting.
3) The *timing* of his lurking (when the pressure is off)
4) More non-committal posting where he downplays his suspicions.

The biggie is his lurking, I'll grant you. It's a biggie because it's the cop-out from doing anything suspicious. Guardian's attack is off the mark, but at least it's there because I put stuff out there to get attacked over. Near hasn't done that unless forced and what he

has

said has seemed, to me at least, to be an attempt not to get anyone's backs up, lose the votes, and go back to lurking.

And I think the "I got to L-2 twice so I must be innocent with scum forcing my wagon through" argument stinks.

[Dasquian]

Oh, and, cheap tricks ahoy. It's much easier to make your case look sexy if you play around with the php tags, isn't it

Guardian

?

[Dasquian]

Near, care to elaborate? I am less than impressed with Guardian's recent posts (particularly the bravo-confidence he's using to try and push people into voting me), but on my last reread I got a town vibe more than anything. Is there a case there I missed?

Phox is a reasonable bandwagon target, I guess, but my vote stays on your for the moment.

[Dasquian]

Dear Diary,

I haven't posted since the last page, and even though I don't have much to say, I don't want to get accused of coasting again. I bet that big poopyhead Guardian would say that, he's such a mean jerk. I heard he told Debbie and Hannah that I called Stacey a bitch which is TOTALLY NOT TRUE (even though she is a bit of a bitch).

Also, Debbie told me that Hank said that Kurt was going to ask me to the dance! He is such a hottie!!!

xxx

Actual post content:

- Near isn't posting much again. I would bet that if the pressure doesn't stay on, he'll go back to lurking. Near, feel free to prove me wrong.
- I do need to reread the JtP case, since he's the other vote leader. I'd also like to hear his thoughts for how we should proceed too.
- I'm relieved that I'm not the only one calling Guardian's tactics out for what they are. In particular I stewed a bit more on him calling out 234, which I didn't rebut in my last volley of posts.

Here's the exchange:

Coron, what info have you gathered?

I think Pyro is a good lynch, that's what I'm getting.

Do you think he is a better lynch than Near? If so, why?

Now, I asked that because Near was, in my mind, the current "hot topic". Since Guardian was a big fan of doling out the questions, I thought I'd reciprocate the favour and put him on the spot about why he was looking past Near and focussing on Pyro, and what made Pyro more worthy of comment than Near. His response seemed pretty reasonable to me (that he saw the case on Near, but preferred it to have more guts than a lurker hunt, but would agree to a policy lynch if necessary).

Now, he's called out 234 as me setting him up for a trap with a supposed scum-buddy, but it occurs to me that that accusation is a total two-way street. If Guardian is scum and knows one of them to be his buddy, by making that very accusation he's setting

me

up to take a fall if the scum-buddy gets lynched - "Hey guys, I told you earlier! He was setting me up when he asked me that question!"

This is getting pretty contrived, since it's assuming one of Pyro/Near to be scum

with

Guardian-scum, so I'm going to leave it there. As a direct rebuttal to the accusation though, since Guardian was so assertive about it "REEK"ing of scum, I wanted to know why he overlooked Near to talk about Pyro. That's all.

[Dasquian]

Dasquian's play this game is not consistent with pro-town motivations. He hasn't tried to scum hunt hard targets, or look into players who don't seem that suspicious to see what their motives might be. He's only focused on the easy, gimme, low-lying fruit suspicions -- suspicions that many (first me, then Coron, then others) have agreed are "easy" lynches.

Easy != wrong.

Sorry, but your case boils down to two assumptions:

1) Near and VH are both innocent.
2) Given that they're both innocent, I am scummy for pressing them for their scummy behaviour.

Now, (1) is a big ol' assumption we won't have for sure until they're both dead, or investigated, or have otherwise cleared themselves. Sure, feel free to suspect they are, and back it up with reasoning, that's all part of the game. But you're using that as a given and moving on to...

(2) is already shaky because of its reliance on (1). If VH or Near are scum, I'd like to think that that counts in my favour quite well. Sure enough, I could be bussing a scum-mate, but nevertheless, I'd like to cash in on the pro-towniness of pressuring a scum, please. If they're scum.

If they ARE both innocent though... now this is where your case can actually begin, and you could then validly criticise my stance on them as bandwagon targets. I'd still defend that I have done nothing scummy in attacking them, as I believe both of them deserved the pressure I gave them. I would also attack your continued assertion that I've focussed on no one else; as I keep saying, I listed out other suspicions on a previous page, I just didn't commit to any to the point of supporting a bandwagon.

Executive summary: your entire case assumes Near's and Coron's innocence, and your scumdar is off anyway.

[Dasquian]

In the meanwhile, can you summarize, or link me to an appropriate summary, of all the reasons you find Near suspicious? Coron?

Is this two questions directed at me, one question directed at me and Coron, or one question directed at Coron? 263 has my most recent summary though.

[Dasquian]

My current stance on Coron is pretty much neutral. I found VH suspicious because of his early-game voting. I carried that (admittedly weak) reason forward up until the point he got replaced, and basically dropped it as soon as Coron replaced in and didn't set off my scumdar.

Essentially it was a weak page 2 case that lasted longer than it should've done due to VH's absence.

[Dasquian]

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

[Dasquian]

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

I don't like this. This almost has a hint of "Vote Near first, because then you'll see he's town and since you think I'm bussing him, you'll (incorrectly) assume you were wrong and won't jump to the conclusion that I'm town, too."

Hm. I read it that Dasquian is desperately trying to cut Near off before he makes things even harder for Dasquian, but Joudas's reasoning is viable as well.

The real reason is that I wanted to point out Guardian's inconsistency in continuing to vote me while saying that he thinks both I

and

Near are scum. If he thinks we're both scum, it follows that he should put his vote on the one more likely to be lynched, and revisit his case on me tomorrow.

I highlighted this because I think there is a non-zero chance that Guardian is dancing a merry dance with scumbuddy Near, and I wanted to see how this particular invitation to bus his own partner would go down. It's something for later, if my hunch turns out to be anywhere close to on target.

[Dasquian]

ps: I think it is cute how Dasquian just tried to draw a line between me and Near.

Nonchalant dismissal noted.

[Dasquian]

Welcome, MBF. I appreciate the support, though the harsh reality is that my immediate reaction was "what, is he trying to buddy up to me?" Also I hate to break it to you and Guardian but I am not, in fact, actually a duck IRL. Bad times.

To business: I don't think I support a Guardian lynch today. I really didn't appreciate his attack on me and his style of "shut up and just listen to me, I'm really really insistent you know" was weak sauce. OTOH he's very active and gutsy and generally makes a poor D1 lynch for a number of reasons, not least that he could well be town.

JamesthePhox really needs to post something of substance before we do much else.

Near basically has given me no reason to back off. There's a niggling doubt that he is just a townie with an odd turn of phrase, but his sole line of defence appears to be to cite some textbook WIFOM, even when he should just be letting things slide (eg the N0 cop comment). I would like to hear a claim from him.

[Dasquian]

Hi DarlaBlueEyes

WhiteDragon

! I'll second Joudas question - I'm interested to hear why I get your sole FOS. Also, like others have said, your vote on Near for "self-preservation" doesn't inspire confidence.

On the last page, Near asked me to lay out my case against him. I thought I'd already done this, but:

1) Active lurking.
2) Non-committal scum-hunting, going through the motions but not rocking anyone's boat.
3) Over-reliance on classic WIFOM defence - he's done this three distinct times now. Firstly his "joke" FOS, then the fact he got pushed to L-2 twice (on the basis that this wouldn't have happened unless scum were pushing his wagon), and now his reaction to the potential cop investigation.

All of these are individually scummy, and Near's doing them all and giving me scummy vibes while he's doing it. Hence why I currently am looking for a claim.

[Dasquian]

Joke posts don't usually put people at L-2.

[Dasquian]

DBE... are you saying that the people who haven't accrued votes are your top suspects precisely because they've avoided negative attention, and therefore are master scum?

Is it not possible that they're simply just not suspicious enough to warrant votes at this stage? Your logic seems to be that they're suspicious by virtue of not being suspicious.

[Dasquian]

ahha, but in reality, a scum knows not to attract attention to themselves, and thus would inhibit less votes for themselves, and thereby winning the game.

on the off chance you get a reckless scum, who gets himself lynched quickly, you can only assume the townspeople are playing it safe in order to not be lynched.

A good townsperson wants the mafia gone, and would be searching for them, therefore the most logical reasoning would be that those laying low are either Scum or a Non-Townie.

I agree with you on some very broad principles, that it benefits scum to lay low more than it benefits town. However I think the rest of your thinking is severely, severely flawed.

Firstly, you are assuming that the scum in this game are good players. This may be true. It's not a safe assumption, though. The last minigame I played we had some impossibly scummy newbie spend days under debate because his actions were so textbook scum. He was scum. Scum make mistakes too.

And even then, if scum don't make mistakes, it's a huge jump to assume they are excellent puppetmasters who can avoid votes all game. Sure, they're better informed and have some buds who are on-side, but it takes mad skills to avoid focus all game.

Thirdly, not getting voted is not a scum-tell even though it benefits scum more directly to not be lynched (ie, town can afford more casualties by game design, scum need to stay not lynched). A good player avoids suspicion whatever his alignment because (Jester roles notwithstanding) it

always

benefits your win condition not to get lynched. A good scum won't get lynched. Neither will a good townie or SK. If someone isn't getting votes, they could be any of those things. Or...

Finally - it's Day 1. We can only cope with so many people getting talked about in detail at a time - chances are that the less scummy half of the town will get through D1 without too much bother. Yos2 and Singing Librarian aren't getting much focus atm, for example - do I think they should? No. Because there are better people to look at and focus needs precisely that - focus. The fact some people have no votes is indicative of little more than the fact other people have been caught in the spotlight more.

[Dasquian]

This game is slowing down, and it's page 16. I motion that the bandwagon on Near needs to be pushed forwards and it needs to be more than just me saying this.

[Dasquian]

This is ridiculous. 4 days from deadline and we have the votes split 4 ways, 3/3/3/2. We don't want to lynch blind. We don't want to miss a lynch. Ergo we need to jump on someone

fast

and get a claim. This game is turning into another Lost Boys as far as lynch-shyness goes.

Obviously my first choice is Near. He's dragged this day out and really should've been forced to claim far earlier than now. My second choice is Guardian, though I think he's a bad lynch right now. My third choice is DBE, who I agree seems more newbie than scummy. My last choice is Macavenger, who has set off no scum alarms at all and has newbie, maybe-scum and scum on his bandwagon.

FOS mbf

for putting us in this situation with not so much as a word of explanation. Everyone needs to chip in now as to who they're prepared to bandwagon, and whoever that person is needs to get a super-fast turnaround on a claim so we can react.

May I once again posit that Near is the only truly sensible bandwagon right now and that if two people join his bandwagon we can just about avoid a rushlynch.

[Dasquian]

Near - you're at L-2 now.

Please

consider not stalling this game into deadline.

I'm watching the Guardian/Coron SK thing play out with interest. Right now, I'd side with Guardian that you just can't accuse someone of being a SK and it's actually a really cheap tactic, even before we check what those tells are. If Coron can make good on them, good for him, I doubt he can. Counting against Guardian though, I think it's a mild scum-tell that he's getting so annoyed at being accused of being a specific flavour of scum; one of the most annoying things that can happen to scum is when a townie does the right thing for entirely the wrong reasons.

Bottom line: I'll worry about a SK when I have to worry about a SK.

[Dasquian]

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

As much as I dislike Coron's play here, jumping on him for it and attempting to get him lynched when he's actually claimed an information role is not a sound idea and is exactly the kind of rush-lynch that sucks for the town.

[Dasquian]

Don't have much to add right now.

Near needs to post.

[Dasquian]

We wouldn't be at this point if you'd claimed a week ago when you first got the pressure. As it stands, with one day to go and you claiming vanilla townie, to do anything else now would be a bad plan.

Nevertheless,

request deadline extension

.

[Dasquian]

OK. I can get behind that. I was feeling somewhat trapped by my previous conviction on Near and our proximity to the deadline, but in truth I'm going off it a bit.

Unvote, vote DarlaBlueEyes

I did a quick skim of her posts - things that stand out are:

- Continual scumbuddy hunting/logic. She doesn't seem to hunt individual scum so much as look for the pair, and accuse pairs. I'm not sure if this is a scum-tell, but it is pretty weird. It would be a behaviour scum might fall into more readily, given their own constant awareness of scum-mates.
- "A good townsperson wants the mafia gone, and would be searching for them, therefore the most logical reasoning would be that those laying low are either Scum or a Non-Townie. " is something to come back on if DBE shows up scum, given it suggests her scum-mates would have been active at the time.
- Stuff about Coron's claim you've already covered, and I agree with. Seems like it's a cheap shot at Coron to set him up for tomorrow, because you know he's a tracker.

I'll put my vote back on Near to make sure we get

a

lynch if it goes that way, but this feels better. Near, please stay active and comment on as much as you can, you can always be revoted.

[Dasquian]

Ok, I'm happy with a Near lynch then. Any last words?

[Dasquian]

Sorry, at this point, we have to ensure a lynch. Pressuring anyone else risks them claiming a power-role with too little time to get a turnaround. This means we basically have to stay the course and lynch Near.

Guardian is a good player, he

knows

this, and his attack on Yos2 was exactly the same one as the one I got from him earlier. He's on tomorrow's list, I can assure you.

Not sure why mike is going for the tracker, either.

[Dasquian]

Oops, missed a page and a half of posting. This would've cemented my opinion though:

We should lynch Dasquian. We have 4 now. Which is enough to lynch him if we were to all vote against him.

Screw you! ;p This is terrible, terrible play. This is the

very definition of a rushlynch

that I've been working to avoid. You don't have a case, you wouldn't give me time to respond, and you'd be risking losing a power-role (or not! This isn't a claim).

Poor show.

[Dasquian]

as we would have suspected, dasquian comes back RIGHT BEFORE TE Deadline. he also has been reading 3+ pages of post. lurking anyone?

i will prob die. lynch dasquian and macvenger.

wtf? I was out all last evening and I woke up half an hour ago, at 8:25am gmt. Then I had a shower, and checked mafiascum.

I guess I am one of those pasty british scums ;p

[Dasquian]

Oops, missed a page and a half of posting.

Uh, you missed a lot more than that, Das.

Wow, I sure did. It's all irrelevant anyway; we've passed the deadline and so night could fall at any moment. There's no time to do a rushlynch, there wasn't really last night either, and in any case it would've been a terrible idea.

Unvote, vote Near

just to seal the deal, if it wasn't already sealed.

[Dasquian]

Hold on... we lynched

Coron

? The tracker?

*headdesk*

[Dasquian]

This kind of last-minute activity is unlikely to work out well for the town. Let's hope I'm wrong about Coron.

[Dasquian]

Heh, don't think I can't see the humour. It *is* pretty funny.

But - if this works out well it'll be good fortune rather than good play. Scum can manipulate lynches much more easily when less-than-majority is needed for the lynch, and this has quite possibly happened here.

[Dasquian]

OK, I read up.

Those last 6-7 pages of fervent discussion? Excellent, excellent stuff. It's a real shame only about four of you were there to have it. Here's what I think:

Near is probably town; the level of genuine self-sacrifice when put on the spot makes it highly unlikely he's not, unless, as others have said, he's scum

with

Coron (which we'll have evidence/counter-evidence of very shortly).

Guardian is either an idiot who'll lead us all to our graves, a master scum-hunter who'll lead us to a glorious victory, or scum playing the fiddle like a pro. Having been the recipient of one of his "ya gotta TRUST me" bandwagons, and seen another on Yosarian just before the end-of-day madness, in which he started

another

on Coron, I'm not feeling good about the second. This guy needs watching or preferably lynching.

Mac I like because he stopped me being on the menu for an absentee rushlynch. Thanks dude. Beyond that, no real read on yesterday's madness.

DBE could be scum as much as she ever was, needs revisiting.

mbf... I dunno. I get a bad vibe, he managed to effectively instigate the Coron lynch without fighting for it, but that probably was genuine coincidence given the speed it all went through.


Basically I think Near is off of the menu and, depending on how the lynch goes, Guardian, DBE and others are back on it.

[Dasquian]

I still don't know what possessed you guys to do such a quick turnaround. It's scummy, you don't get to shrug this off and say "sorry". Fact is at one part of yesterday's last minute rush, I was being touted as the possible lynch, and you would've done that without even knowing what my role-claim would've been. The only reason you didn't was because you couldn't get enough votes with the few people you had.

Vote: Guardian

You're scum and your tactic is to tell people what to do, preying on the indecisiveness of others in the hope that your apparent certainty is mistaken for a genuine case. You were wrong about me, you were wrong about Coron and you know what? I reckon you were wrong about Yos2 too.

[Dasquian]

Dasquian -- since when does me convincing other people with logic I am convinced by become an indication of me being scum?

Because a large part of your convincing isn't logic, it's showboating.

You attempt to convince other people by being so insistent that other people assume the logic is there; you run your cases like a political campaign, putting in cheap shots (like when you red-bolded my name) and calling for people to join you over and over so that people assume you must have a case because you

appear

so fervent, rather than actually concentrating on the case itself.

[Dasquian]

You're missing the point, and you know it.

You are suspicious because you are attempting to drum up bandwagons more through enthusiasm and emotion than reason and logic, using the former to make up for deficits in the latter.

[Dasquian]

All you've said is that

if

you're pro-town, you have the best of motives. Which is just the original assumption.

[Dasquian]

You're doing a remarkable job of trying to excuse your part in deadline-lynching a power-role. Blah blah, best guess, blah blah. You shouldn't have been doing any "best guesses" when...

It was eight hours to lynch.
Most people weren't there.
He claimed tracker.

You got him strung up. I should've hammered Near when I had the chance; it would at least have been a true majority of the town.

[Dasquian]

It's true that Near's sacrificial votes yesterday seemed like something no scum would do for a power-role if there was a real chance of it turning into a genuine sacrifice. However, I'm uncomfortable totally accepting that as fact. Particularly as even in his last post he seems to be cashing in on it

In response to Guardian:

- Yes, it's "trivially obvious" Near is town (but see above), but I still think he was a better lynch.
- DBE was a worse lynch than Coron, but that didn't make Coron a good lynch.
- I agree that Near, Coron and DBE were the only viable deadline lynch candidates, however, see what court you've put this into?

It's not good town play to be doing deadline lynches!

The quick turnaround and last minute games means what happened didn't reflect on everyone in the town. We had a near-majority lynch of Near, and it would've told us a lot more about more people than your deadline lynch of Coron, and at worst, we would've lost a townie.

Did I mention you deadline-lynched a claimed power-role, btw?

In response to mbf: The benefit of lynching Coron over Near/DBE is that we lynched a tracker. Perhaps he felt that DBE was too much of an unknown quantity to push for a lynch and get away with, but Coron had been under enough fire that he could retroactively justify his lynch and get rid of a potentially ruinous power-role.

I don't see the case on MacAvenger. tbh most of his posts have seemed pretty townie and sensible to me, and in line with my own thoughts. His part in the deadline lynch is scummy but he did at least hold out on the complete idiocy of lynching me, when I reckon DBE, Near and Guardian would all have gone for that. The reason I say idiocy isn't egoism about myself; just my status as an unclaimed player.

[Dasquian]

He's going from the Guardian Book of Scum-Hunting

[Dasquian]

Well...

I think DBE is probably town. Watcher/tracker combo makes sense, and I just get townish vibes more than anything.

Yos2's case against mbf is interesting. I don't get a scum-vibe from mbf and haven't really at any point, but his part in the Coron wagon is undeniable; whether he intended to lynch him or not he put the bandwagon into motion and could've voted elsewhere (or nowhere, if he really wanted a no lynch!). In fact, why vote Coron if you wanted a no lynch? Was the purpose to get a no lynch without looking like you supported it?

Ergh. mbf is a good vote, I reckon. What's the vote-count?

I still think Guardian is scummy. If mbf can be accused of manipulating the deadline lynch in a scummy fashion, Guardian can certainly be accused of hammering it into shape.

[Dasquian]

Why doesn't DBE's role-claim of watcher make sense to you?

[Dasquian]

Watcher

does

make sense with a tracker, but that kind of think leads us into getting fooled by the next mod who does something a bit wacky and gives us a tracker and a cop.

I too am more inclined to believe that if Guardian is anything, he's a cop. It's about the only way I could excuse his actions as being pro-town, even if I still think he made very poor choices. Likewise, I would side against DBE if it came to a "they can't both be right" situation on the basis that she first vague-claimed a power-role then fitted it to watcher after the tracker died.

That all said, I'm loathe to assume one is lying and then, presumably, lynch them both.

Unvote Guardian

, anyway.

[Dasquian]

Your plan essentially boils down to outing the doc, no? This sounds like a horrible idea to me, particularly given your line of assumptions about who we would look to to be lying with or without a doc.

Let's look at the possibilities:

Both DBE and Guardian are lying

This seems unlikely to me; it'd mean we only had a tracker and two mafia ballsy enough to claim the investigation roles not represented by the town. I'm happy to rule this one out.

DBE is lying, Guardian is telling the truth

If this is the case, we have an unusual tracker + cop combo, but it does explain Guardian's erratic behaviour and also means DBE has been playing the odds a little with her partial-claim becoming a true claim.

In this circumstance, a mass-claim might lead us to incorrectly believe DBE is telling the truth (if the setup is something like 2 scum + cop + tracker + 8 townies).

DBE is telling the truth, Guardian is lying

If this is the case, we have the more standard tracker + watcher combo. It also explains why EvilGorillaz might have been targetted last night - the mafia might've correctly assumed the presence of a watcher and been careful to pick someone very innoccuous.

In this scenario, Guardian is simply a troublemaking scum who has thrown a cop claim into the mix to buy time, and is now mixing it up with an attempt to get a mass claim. A mass claim carries the same risks as it does above.

Both DBE and Guardian are telling the truth

The town has an abundance of investigation roles, and most probably the game is balanced with this in mind (perhaps a mafia RB, or no doctor). The more plausible bits of the above two scenarios are present here, too, but the credibility of the situation is stretched by there being three such roles.


It seems to me that if we were to get a mass-claim we'd be playing on the probabilities game and could very well get caught out horribly, particularly since we don't know if we have a surplus of investigation roles or not, which would affect the plausibility of a doc claim. In short... I think a mass-claim idea stinks.

I'm tempted to just leave DBE and Guardian alone entirely and lynch mbf today, but I want to review his posts for myself before dropping a vote.

[Dasquian]

Yeah, but the point Yos2 is trying to make (and is apparently falling on death ears) is that

scum fake-claiming power roles

shouldn't claim when Coron did either. Fact is that whichever way you look at it, it just wasn't very good play... which doesn't imply it was scummy play.

And in fact spending some time thinking about it, it makes more sense as a townie who thinks he's helping (somehow!) than as a scum who has an agenda. In retrospect of course we know the former was the case, but we can still ask: how could doing what Coron did be beneficial to scum?

[Dasquian]

Vote: mikeburnfire

Yos' arguments are good. mbf's aren't. In particular, the dropped vote on Coron which was supposed to cause a no lynch seems particularly badly justified, with no pro-town redeeming features.

[Dasquian]

You won't be getting it; if Near turns out to be townie, then

even in retrospect

it would've been better if he'd gotten lynched. Because...

- Plain townie is more dispensable than a tracker.
- More people had reacted to his bandwagon and thus the lynch would've been more useful.

You played your part in lynching a more useful town role, did so to further another anti-town play (no lynch), and did so in an oblique manner (you could

always

have just voted no lynch). In addition, you're sending mixed messages about how you actually

did

want to lynch Coron too.

Finally, you (along with Near, Mac, DBE and Guardian) gave us a much less useful deadline lynch because it reflects only on you lot, whereas the L-1 bandwagon on Near would've been something that everyone could been accountable for in whatever capacity they approached it. You should all be

expecting

this time in the spotlight.

[Dasquian]

And I still say that I would have preferred a no-lynch to a person I thought was a townie. I won't apologize for that, nor do I agree with Yosarian's assertion that speedlynches are good for the town.

I really don't see how you can still hold onto this assertion. It seems like a basic bit of flawed theory that sounds good on paper ("lynching townie > not lynching townie") but is just totally wrong on every level.

Consider; what is the town's greatest source of information? Do you think we should go no lynch tonight?

[Dasquian]

Why shouldn't I believe that this is a set of principles you've adopted for this situation out of necessity?

[Dasquian]

You've chosen the path of the "no lynch champion". It's possible that you genuinely hold this belief, it's possible that you are scum and have been backed into this stance by your previous justifications of your actions.

Why should I believe the former over the latter?

[Dasquian]

I had a massive hiatus :p

[Dasquian]

I don't have a whole lot to add right now. MBF is at L-1 and I don't feel any less inclined to lynch him; I'd like to hear a claim. Yos2's FOS on Mac is fair, and Guardian's vote looks opportunistic, I still don't want to lynch Mac.

[Dasquian]

It looked opportunistic because, although your suspicion of Mac isn't new, you placed your vote on him the moment someone else FOSed him, which to me looked like an attempt to capitalise on some momentum.

[Dasquian]

looked like an attempt to capitalise on some momentum.

[Dasquian]

DBE:

if

you choose to watch Guardian tonight,

do not

reveal your results unless he dies. If he's scum, he could be fishing for the doctor through you.

like i said id have to be scum with mbf for that to make any sense, and mac'd have to be town.

I don't see why you'd have to be scum with mbf. It could just be that you're encouraging a Mac-bandwagon since you've been stoking the embers for a bit.

[Dasquian]

Good god, a lot of posting while I was playing GTA IV. Unfortunately I don't have time to respond now (bedtime), but I'll address my votes tomorrow. Colour me shocked that Guardian has so merrily jumped on the bandwagon

again

, though.

[Dasquian]

Actually, I made time. I didn't need to be awake for work tomorrow

As for my "turnaround" at the end of yesterday, I'm getting heat for every single bit of that. Apparently it's scummy that I wasn't changing my mind about Near. Apparently it was also scummy that I changed my mind about Near. Apparently it's also scummy that I did it three days before the deadline (but shh, let's temporarily forget about the T minus 8 hours absurdity that actually happened!). So yeah, seems like I could complain I'm getting any heat for backing off from Near when other people did much bigger turnarounds much closer to the deadline.

This is what happened though: I decided Near was the scummiest. He dragged his heels, he stalled the game, he generally refused to react to his bandwagon until a couple of days before the lynch (his claim was Tue 22nd, the day before the deadline). Yos then pointed out that DBE was actually a viable alternative lynch (with three votes), so I moved my vote because she was genuinely scummier at that point, and although Near's play was awful, I was getting less scummy vibes from him. Then, while I was away, DBE claimed a non-specific power-role and Near was pushed to L-1.

On my return, the deadline extension had been refused and Near was at L-1. Given that state of affairs, I was happy for him to be lynched and said so (not sure why I didn't unvote DBE, to be honest though). I was unwilling to hammer Near just to end conversation, but I wish I had since then I went to bed and it all went mental and Coron got lynched. Here's who kicked it off, btw:

vote: Dasquian

to no avail.

Near seems hugely like a mislynch now. I find her saying ' I could have claimed doctor to at least get the real doctor to counter claim. I am a vanilla townie'

so sincere.

I get these super strong vibes around lynches, and when they happen before the lynch, I act on them.

Yeah, I want a last minute bandwagon.

Not on DBE, or Near.

Mac, Duck, both reasonable choices.

ABR, what do you think of Guardian's play?

[Dasquian]

Is this a belief that follows from DBE's part in Coron's lynch, or have you gleaned it from his play directly? If so (or even, if not), what do you think of his propensity for switching his vote around so readily?

[Dasquian]

I am a little bit leary of watching him because if he is indeed the cop, the mafia have a perfect opportunity to off the cop and implicate the watcher. But I will watch him none the less.

This doesn't make too much sense; if they do this, you will know who killed the cop. Unless, of course, this is stage 1 in the plan which involves killing the cop then lying about who targetted him.

Right now, I'm not feeling fantastic about any of the more active players as being scum. Even though DBE and Guardian are both scummy in their own ways, even if I was pretty sure one was scum I still think their claims make them the wrong lynch today.

PyroDwarf and Singing Librarian are flying under the radar; the latter in particular.

mbf is still a decent lynch, though, and I don't think his rebuttals to Yos2 were particularly compelling. I also don't see why I should believe he is town as strongly as ABR does. Mac + Joudas I have no read on at all. Yos2 I get a town read on, and although he makes children wet their beds at night, he's done nothing overtly scummy.

In conclusion, I still think mbf is the current best choice of lynch.

[Dasquian]

Hmm. I could happily drop a vote on Pyrodwarf, but I would be blatently following the crowd at this point. I'd like to hear more from him anyway, so consider me on the fence about that one.

I still think mbf's bandwagon is a good one and am disappointed that we're moving away from it.

[Dasquian]

Er, what? He's only on two votes, and you shouldn't be afraid of OMGUS accusations unless it actually is OMGUS.

[Dasquian]

Also, I really don't like the fishing in PD's last post. He's basically trying to extricate a doc-yay or doc-nay out of mbf.

[Dasquian]

So how come I'm the bandwagon now? Is this entirely from ABR's case linking me to DBE? Because it's way off the mark.

I echo Joudas, that mbf has a nice set of double-standards. Yos' case against ABR is tunnel-vision, but ABR's case against DBE and me isn't. The case against mbf for his dodgy-dealings regarding the end of yesterday is a mystifying non-case to him, but ABR's is something he can get behind?

Honestly, I'm not saying ABR's case has no merit whatsoever; just that I'm in the privileged position to know it's entirely wrong. I suspect that most of it is circumstantial and, if I look back, I can demonstrate that I don't have an noteworthy connection to DBE; just that I've said enough for Albert to pick and choose from to make a compelling front.

[Dasquian]

ABR: yeah, great, apart from the bit where I show up town. You're just doing

exactly

what Guardian did against me, Yos and Coron: shouting to all high heaven that you hold some kind of universal truth, and are hosting a bandwagon party to celebrate it. I'm kind of bored of it now.

mbf: sorry, sorry, sorry: I meant Yos' case against

you

, not ABR. Apologies for the confusion, I stumbled over the sentence in typing it.

[Dasquian]

Oh, and to back that up:

You have essentially said over the course of the day "MBF is scum, and I will not consider anybody else until he is lynched. Let us lynch him and be done with it".

That pretty much equates to accusing Yos of tunnel-vision.

[Dasquian]

Uh, ABR just got replaced? Didn't see that one coming. In any case: welcome Albie, I hope you are a little less rabid than your predecessor. Please feel free to unvote me while you get to grips with the thread

/*
* That was my failed attempt at a joke. ABR/Albie is still in the game.
* Claus
*/

I'm also going to

unvote: mbf

. I do think the case against him was fair; I also think he backed himself into a "no lynch is good amirite?" corner and defended it, which I think is scummy. However, I do agree with whoever said it that the recent posts from him come across as frustrated townie more than scum.

Guardian, I get a worse and worse vibe from. He's so, so willing to just run with whatever idea gets a lynch. In his last post, he's got gambler's fallacy (assuming ABR's "hot streak" carries over to here), and ties that into Near's supposed-clear (though I'm now wondering if that was prearranged somehow), and then draws the conclusion that he must be right and that everyone should follow ABR. Great, again, apart from the bit where, for all ABR and Guardian's bluster, they're completely wrong. That said, I'm still not going to vote him.

If PyroDwarf is scum, I suspect mbf isn't. I really do think his last post was an attempt to squeeze a semi-claim out of mbf. If mbf is scum, PyroDwarf might be... he could've been prepping a scum buddy for a doc claim.

Anyway, things for me to do in a spare twenty minutes:

- Look at PD's posts in isolation to see if more springs out than just the recent
- Look at my own posts in isolation versus ABR's case to try and make it go away; I hate doing this but it looks like I probably should.

[Dasquian]

What am I on now? L-1 or L-2? In either case, please not to be hammering me while I construct some sort of a proper "stop doing this" post.

The executive version is: "don't do this, I'm not scum, and I'm only getting fingered by being the common link between other people who may or may not be scum"

[Dasquian]

Cops are different to watchers; you don't necessarily deserve a fair reciprocation of abilities and actually it's more scummy to insist on it! That said, although I think there's a lot to be gained by you watching Guardian, if he *is* scum the purpose could be simply to tie you up for an evening and possibly find the doctor (or learn of the existence of one). Vice versa, if you're scum, asking you to watch him is a pointless courtesy. It doesn't really help anyone else

ABR is spouting more circumstantial rhetoric.

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS)

Oh, that's because he sides with the already-dead tracker, and sets up Near's lynch the next day; even apprehensive town wouldn't jump on that opportunity with so much certainty.

When I said that, it was still a few days before the deadline and I was arguing against the push to get Coron lynched. Get your facts straight, eh? btw, lynching Coron was, once again, Guardian's Great Idea. He didn't manage a Coron bandwagon a few days before the deadline, but could push it through once it got to T minus 8 hours and only a handful of people were around.

Frankly the quote you have there is just appalled shock that we'd D1 lynch anyone claiming power-role

solely for claiming a power-role

, when we had a better lynch lined up. Here's the quote in its entirety, which ABR chose not to share:

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

[Dasquian]

Hey, I probably should've posted the whole thing:

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

As much as I dislike Coron's play here, jumping on him for it and attempting to get him lynched when he's actually claimed an information role is not a sound idea and is exactly the kind of rush-lynch that sucks for the town.

Yeah, I "called it", because it seemed like

common bloody sense

, not because I had any special knowledge.

[Dasquian]

What, so DBE does something idiotic and

I

get threatened with the vote? Thanks a bunch guys At least in the last page DBE is getting the well-deserved heat, but I'm still not sure that's a great idea.

Fact is, I'm not DBE's scum-buddy. I'm not scum at all. But a number of you are playing as though this is so likely that direct conclusions can be drawn from lynching one of us, which I think is dangerous. Particularly when we get stellar logic like "hey, DBE sounds scummy, very tempted to vote Dasquian now".

ABR is now trying to back me into a corner with something I said earlier. Not only has Guardian been making himself scummier in my eyes since then, but the statement ABR quoted

only holds if it's very likely ABR and Guardian cannot both be town

, a conclusion which I think is too early to draw.

Here's how things stand for me now:

DBE - a confusing blend of utter naivetie and classic scum-tells. I still think watcher is a likely role given we had a tracker. I still think the timing of her role-reveal was scummy and potentially chosen after the tracker reveal. I still think her night-choice was scummy as is her constant ability to do what she thinks will look most town-like. Her part in the Coron lynch mirrors what's happening here - she's been pushed into thinking that if she votes Coron/me, she'll be doing the "right thing" and be in everyone's good books. OTOH all of this can be put down to excessive inexperience (no offense intended). I do not think she is a good choice of lynch today.

Guardian - this guy is simply rabid. His tactics consist solely of insisting he's right about someone and then shouting at people until they join him. This is not clever scum-hunting. This is also not accurate scum-hunting, after tagging myself and Coron. The cop claim explains his insistance on lynching Coron, but I still maintain that the deadline lynch was the height of idiocy for all parties concerned, the result merely proving how risky the whole thing was. I can't shake the feeling that he's simply totally ballsy scum, realising that no one will call him up on a cop claim.

Near/ABR - Near basically "cleared" himself in deadline yesterday. That still holds, but doesn't totally clear ABR forever and ever. If ABR

is

scum, he's in a very strong position. Needless to say, I have far less than a favourable read on him since he's going hell-for-leather trying to get yours truly lynched. My biggest beef with him, however, is how eerily similar his play is to Guardian's. It's like he joined the game, saw that Guardian's tactics were effective and tolerated by the town, and decided to get a piece of that action. This alone makes me strongly wonder if we weren't giving Near-as-scum nearly enough credit.

mbf - There was a good case against mbf. He's been giving off townish vibes recently but his part in the Coron lynch and the stance on no lynches he seemed forced to hold jars badly. I really do think he's a good lynch today; I would happily rejoin his bandwagon. I freely admit some OMGUS here too as he too is joining the case, such as it is, against me.

PyroDwarf - No real read. I want to go back on his posts. I still think his attempts to call out mbf as doctor reeked of scum fishing for a reaction.

Mac - No real read. I had him down as town yesterday. Less so now, particularly as he's been persuaded into joining the bandwagon against me (freely admit the OMGUS!). His part in lynching Coron shouldn't be forgotten either.

Joudas - I get a pretty townish read on this guy, despite OMGUS. There's been nothing that's made me sit up and consider him to be potential scum, which means he's either doing a good job of staying out of fire or (Occam) is town.

Yos - Yos seems totally town to me.

SL - SL seems town to me, but isn't posting nearly as much as everyone else.


Right now, I think the scum is likely to be mbf, PyroDwarf, and any of the others. ABR and Guardian are my favourites, but both have good reasons not to be lynched today. DBE and Mac are possible third scums, but I'm not really buying into it right now.

[Dasquian]

Oh, and, btw - ABR is clearly doing this. It's his tactic for succeeding in a lynch, but it doesn't make his original choice of victim any more accurate.

[Dasquian]

...so assuming there are about three scum, who do you think is scummy

independently

of DBE's supposed guilt?

[Dasquian]

So you've got nothing in response, then?

[Dasquian]

So I hit the nail on the head with your scum-hunting strategy, then? I guess this is the "accusation" bit, because it sure isn't the "evidence" bit.

[Dasquian]

Not only has Guardian been making himself scummier in my eyes since then, but the statement ABR quoted

only holds

if it's very likely ABR and Guardian cannot both be town

, a conclusion which I think is too early to draw.[/color]

You're so nervous you can't even make sense, read or quote properly. How can we take anything you say seriously ?

Ha, I only spotted what I did wrong here on the reread. I swear I have some kind of acronym-dyslexia or something.

Of course I meant "DBE and Guardian". But it's a good job everyone is giving me the benefit of the doubt and not using every little typo to prop up their otherwise shoddy case, right?

[Dasquian]

Because I thought I already was.

Vote: mikeburnfire

- it seems like the less hopeful bandwagon, but it's the better one IMO. I also wish to reread pyrodwarf's posts before dropping a vote, even though it seems more in vogue atm.

[Dasquian]

Because I thought I already was.

Little more than a day has passed since you unvoted.

You did not recall doing so?

I thought I had actually switched my vote to Pyrodwarf rather than resolving to do a background check first (a promise I still plan to make good on). In the meantime, you're right, there's no reason not to have my vote down on someone I find scummy.

[Dasquian]

Because I put a lot of faith in the belief I made the right choice at the time and can't always remember why I made it You're right to call me up on this confusion, but confusion is all it is. I can tell you one thing with clarity right now though:

With the information I currently have, the votes distributed how they currently are, the fact I'm not sure how close pyrodwarf is to a lynch, and the fact I still want to reread his posts, I would rather have my vote on mbf than pyrodwarf.

You're a one to be calling people up on sporadic voting, though

[Dasquian]

I know pyrodwarf got a couple of votes recently. I didn't count them. This is because I am lazy.

[Dasquian]

OK, so being lazy is a pretty poor show. This is what I make the current vote-count:

Dasquian 5 - ABR, Guardian, MBF, Joudas, DBE
DBE 1 - Yos2 , Mac
Pyrodwarf 1 - Singing Librarian
mbf 1 - Dasquian

Not voting:
Pyrodwarf

So my statement would be: With the information I currently have, and the fact I still want to reread pyrodwarf's posts, I would rather have my vote on mbf than pyrodwarf.

Also, please don't hammer me yet. I'm intending to properly debunk ABR's case when I get a spare moment (hopefully tomorrow morning), and I would also like anyone voting me as a proxy for DBE to

strongly

reconsider, or at least state straight up that this is waht they are doing.

[Dasquian]

Simul-post: pretty much answered all of your questions.

I should explain that work is pretty hectic atm, and that most of my posts are literally direct reactions to the last two or three I saw. Hence why I plan to do a proper rebuttal at the weekend.

[Dasquian]

While this is a fine playstyle, I don't particularly care for it. Dasquian, I am almost sold on. He didn;t claim when he was at L-1, he only said he wasnt scum.

Huh, strange how that didn't factor in when mbf stayed on L-1 without claiming for so long.

[Dasquian]

Oh wait, I remember now!

@MBF: is your refusal to claim supposed to be an insinuation that you are a doctor?

With so many investigators, i think it was pretty obvious what he is, a doctor or a scum. ANd now that I've thought about it more, I would like to vote for MBF, but I don't want to be accused of OMGUS, so I'll just FOS untill he responds.

That's right! You were fishing for the doctor.

[Dasquian]

Oh, and I really don't think DBE is the right lynch today. She's been hella scummy. I still think she could be a townie who doesn't "get" not looking scummy, but the fact is that there's a very good case against here.

But; we shouldn't lynch her

today

. Even if she is scum, there are other scum out there and DBE will become a clearer lynch or not-lynch later on in the game. Also, if we do have a cop/tracker/watcher/no doc combo, Guardian's prediction is the bad news we'll probably get tomorrow.

Let DBE live. Her watching Guardian is a much more solid plan, and scum will have to kill her or Guardian to derail it anyway. Let them do the hard work and save ourselves a lynch.

[Dasquian]

DBE or Dasquian for today.

If that's true, then I'll leave my vote on DBE.

Shocking. Would you jump off a cliff if he told you to?

Reread now. Bigger post soon.

[Dasquian]

OK, so I read over ABR's case in 936. Even though I'm off the "hotseat" for the moment, I promised I'd properly rebut it so here I go. Basically his post comes down to talking himself up about how great his track record is, touting the Das/DBE scum-pair idea, and then making some points. The thing is, most of those points come from DBE's side of the fence. I'm not responsible for those -

if

she shows up scum I'm happy to accept they look bad for me, but i won't be held in suspicion of them until then. I looked at his big, bolded, exciting "core post" in more detail too, and - guess what? It was horribly lacking.

"Taking in account the terrible timing of this post (just before the 8 page marathon), we can observe several points of interest from it: " - how is that my fault? I didn't know it was going to kick off.
"It is DAZ's first departure from his tunnelvision on Near. " - covered this already in 948:

This is what happened though: I decided Near was the scummiest. He dragged his heels, he stalled the game, he generally refused to react to his bandwagon until a couple of days before the lynch (his claim was Tue 22nd, the day before the deadline). Yos then pointed out that DBE was actually a viable alternative lynch (with three votes), so I moved my vote because she was genuinely scummier at that point, and although Near's play was awful, I was getting less scummy vibes from him. Then, while I was away, DBE claimed a non-specific power-role and Near was pushed to L-1.

"DAZ connects DBE to other players, under the assumed prediction that she is scum. " - ABR bolded this as if it was a really big catch. Actually, I don't connect her to any specific players, I'm just making the statement that something she said sounded weird, and if she later shows up as scum, is worth looking at. I stand by this as something we want to remember if DBE does show up scum because if DBE

is

scum, I think she would be the sort of scum that would say something like this to be clever.

"A good townsperson wants the mafia gone, and would be searching for them, therefore the most logical reasoning would be that those laying low are either Scum or a Non-Townie. " is something to come back on if DBE shows up scum, given it suggests her scum-mates would have been active at the time.

"More predictions on Coron's alignment, in all likelihood under the belief that he will come off as more town as a result." - I felt pretty happy predicting that Coron was actually a tracker. Scum generally don't claim a power-role under no pressure as the second claim of the game. Why would they? ABR's insinuation that I said this to look town is circular reasoning, assuming that I knew this because I was scum.
"Now, let's look at DBE and DAZ. Both on opposing bandwagons. Daz Dillinger here is panting and proclaiming that Coron tells the truth, while Darla is pushing the wagon. " - Yes, you're right, I disagreed with DBE on this one.

And that is it! That's actually ABR's case that spawned a L-1 bandwagon. There's very little there to my name; the bulk of the "case" comes from stupid things DBE has said that are being thrown back at me, and ABR's continued insistance that he's right and no one should doubt him. But, as we all know, that's his modus operandi for assuring a lynch. Please enjoy this timely snippet from his (admittedly fascinating) thread:

3. Do not justify your focus. Never justify your single-mindedness. If you present it as part of your personality, players will likely just go with it. Present your case and state your intentions, but never justify the jewel of your focal point. The reason for this is simple: you want to make the game about your victim, not about your obsessiveness with that person. The line between the two is slim but it makes a world of difference.

So how on earth did I get to L-1? ABR actually gets mostly-ignored for a few days. mbf votes pyrodwarf, Joudas votes Singing Librarian, and there's general talk about who the scum-teams might be. Then, post 978, we get a vote-count. mbf is down to 2 votes and is joint vote-leader with Pyrodwarf. Suddenly, Guardian and mbf rush my bandwagon (3 votes). Joudas adds his vote shortly afterwards, and eventually DBE votes me to show good faith to the town (???).

Basically I don't care about winning ABR over. His own strategy involves not listening because it depends so heavily on a continued assault to rally others. Guardian and mbf are no surprise, since the former has been on my back all game and the latter is on my scum-list. Joudas' vote seems sincere and also seems to be readily transferable to any of the others on his "would-lynch" list; I don't begrudge this one. DBE's vote was just bloody stupid, either as town or scum.

Next job: reading up on Pyrodwarf.

[Dasquian]

So, a quick reread of PD's posts in isolation. Honestly, nothing jumps out in the early game. He's brief, but doesn't look too scummy to me. I could (and will) call out his lurking in the middle of day 1 - the following are his only two posts between Apr 6 and Apr 20:

sorry guys, work is crazy, i had thought that i posted, but i was in a hurry, i must have hit preview instead of submit... tonight ill give content, im on lunch right now, so no time.

okay, so Near's "slip" is interesting, but I don't know what to make of it. I can see why guardian would question it. Near's response was a bit dragging, but it seems to have been necessary.

I never wanted more phox lynch, I just wanted to leave the implication that I did.

So, you didn't want him lynched, but you wanted to seem like you wanted him lynched? sorry for the short post, ill be back after work.

That's a lot of nothing for two weeks. I can sympathise with busy work, but...

Day 2 is more interesting. He seems to readily accept Guardian's cop claim, having assumed him to be scum on day 1. You'd think he'd be more suspicious of him still - I am. The most suspicious thing about him though is his fishing on mbf's L-1 wagon. "@MBF: is your refusal to claim supposed to be an insinuation that you are a doctor? " This is classic fishing, and he keeps at it.

Finally, his last post stinks too:

Well, DBE as certainly dug herself a scum hole. Trying to "act town" is not a good thing to admit, i think. It looks like guardian and ABR went to the same scum hunting school. Pick a guy and ride them to a lynch. While this is a fine playstyle, I don't particularly care for it. Dasquian, I am almost sold on. He didn;t claim when he was at L-1, he only said he wasnt scum.
It seems he has been backed into a corner and is in survival mode. However, before i place my vote, i have to figure, Do we have a cop and a watcher, or was it a cop and a tracker. Or, was it watcher and tracker, and ballsy scum? I think it would be safest for me to vote the non PR claimed member in this, so I will

vote:Dasquian

putting him at L-1 again

So he starts his post implying that he thinks ABR and Guardian's playstyle isn't his thing, and doesn't particularly lambast DBE (this is the first and only time he's mentioned DBE for a while). But he's sold on me? But so much of the case on me (see last post) is to do with linking me to DBE. Then he throws in some worthless rhetoric that isn''t even right!

Do we have a cop and a watcher, or was it a cop and a tracker.

No, it's definitely not the former. Why would you even say this when the only role we know we had is a tracker? It seems like he's just going through the motions of "giving it some thought" before dropping his vote in the same paragraph. Besides that, it's another "vote Dasquian because he's not a claimed PR" dump vote. For someone who's "sold" on me, he's said very little (ie, nothing save quoting Guardian) about why he finds me suspicious.

Looking back on PyroDwarf does make one thing clear to me: I find it very unlikely that he is scum

with

mbf. I could contrive a situation in which PyroDwarf is clumsily implying to scum-buddy mbf that he should claim doctor, but it just doesn't ring true with the tone and timing of PD's posts. I'm going to...

Unvote, vote: Pyrodwarf

[Dasquian]

Not much to add right now. I still think PyroDwarf is the best lynch which currently looks viable.

[Dasquian]

To me, its very simple. Its extremely likely that there is at least one scum in the group of Dasquian, Yosarian and DBE. The fact that all three are attempting to derail a Dasquian and DBE bandwagon for a Pyro wagon, the easiest lynch out of their scum group, as mentioned by MBE and various others throughout the day who voiced their suspicions of Pyro, is enough evidence for me to think that Pyro is town.

You're assuming you're right about one of the three of us being scum, and you're assuming that whoever that is can't be bussing PyroDwarf. That's a lot of assumptions, and I'm not at all happy with even the first one. For my part, damn right I'm derailing a Dasquian/DBE bandwagon. I have no interest in either outcome of that particular agenda.

2) We cannot, ever, verify DBE being a watcher if we mislynch now. She could choose whoever she damn pleases, say MBF for example, and finger him for killing you tonight. We listen to her and she's scum, WE ALL DIE.

So, that "mislynch and we're at LyLo" logic is good enough for me, assuming three scum (which we should, since less than that is a nice bonus). On the other hand, what if Guardian is the scum here? We lynch DBE, go "oh well" and then we have the situation ABR describes, except it's Guardian plugging us with the fake info, not DBE.

Out of the two of DBE and Guardian, DBE is more scummy on a post-to-post level. Guardian's claim feels like the odd duck, though, and I believe he has the smarts and cajones to throw it into the mix and field the situation we're in now. I also think that it could be the case neither are scum.

I

still

stand by my earlier belief, though, that

if

DBE or Guardian aren't both town, there's still other scumbuddies who aren't whichever (or both) of them are scum, and there is a chance that we have a three investigative roles somehow balanced with the rest of the setup (lack of doctor, mafia roleblocker, whatever). I am not comfortable voting either DBE or Guardian today.

Hence my vote on PyroDwarf. If, tomorrow, we lynch someone who isn't DBE and Guardian, and one shows up dead and the other claims a guilty of some description... we're not necessarily pickled. We can put ourselves in a far worse situation

today

by lynching one of them, and getting it wrong.

[Dasquian]

What the hell?

This is ridiculous: DBE, stop being such a ^&%*ng stooge. If you're the watcher, self-voting to prove a point is not in the town's interests, period. Stop dropping votes to gain support, it's scummy. I'm not ready to lay my life on the line to save DBE's ass, but I really don't get the impression that she's scum and I'd rather I got the bandwagon than her. That's an invitation to swap votes, to be sure, and I won't deny it's going to sting taking a bullet for someone so malleable, but...

DON'T LYNCH THE WATCHER THE DAY AFTER WE LYNCHED THE TRACKER

This isn't rocket science. Do something less risky.

Now, having invited you all to vote me instead of her... please don't vote me. I've already knocked the case apart and nobody has given me anything I should be defending myself against. I've just got people who

actually

have cases against them saying that I'm "part of their supposed scumgroup" and then quietly dropping a vote on me. That shouldn't be good enough for anyone to follow; I strongly suspect the mafia includes mbf and PyroDwarf, both of whom are voting me, and the former of which is trying to keep his buddy off the table and me or DBE on it.

[Dasquian]

I am not Quagmire

[Dasquian]

You guys realise that this argument:

As has been mentioned, lynching a claimed power role is always a bit sketchy. However, it's more disastrous (as has been mentioned) if she's scum. In that case, we basically lose the game, do not pass go, do not collect $200.00. With that in mind, what if she's town? How do we know that's not what's happening? We'll once again be at an impasse tomorrow - do we believe her claim tomorrow, when she has a supposed result, or do we second guess ourselves again?

applies equally to Guardian, right? More so, since if tomorrow he comes up with a guilty result, and we're at LyLo...

I don't deny that we can set ourselves up for a horrid LyLo tomorrow, but we can't get rid of that threat entirely since whichever of DBE and Guardian doesn't get lynched can screw us. Better if we actually lynch neither and let the mafia take one out.

[Dasquian]

So much hate! But in your fevered rantings, there is one point worthy of reply. Guardian is indeed less worthy of suspicion than DBE. However, "we" don't all believe him. I'm actually rather suspicious of him. There is absolutely no guarantee that Guardian has not chosen his claim to justify his stance on Coron on D1, avoid a lynch today, and lead the town around.

So, that said, ABR: do you agree that,

if

Guardian is scum, we have the same problem tomorrow if we mislynch as you attribute to DBE-scum?

[Dasquian]

Answer the question, please.

[Dasquian]

So what happens in the following series of events?

- We lynch DBE. She's town. Or anyone else really, who shows up town.
- N2 finishes, and Guardian is still alive!
- Hay guys, says Guardian, I have a guilty on <insert player of choice>

It's the same dilemma

. We're at LyLo, our surviving investigative role looks scummy through having survived, and is giving us potentially game-losing information if they are scum. Just because DBE is a weaker player and more likely scum doesn't make the problem you cite of her accusing someone tomorrow apply any less to Guardian.

How come you're so sure he'll be night-killed?

[Dasquian]

Because he refuses to see any truth beyond the one he's championing. It's actually really painful to watch him draw conclusions like "mbf is innocent because Dasquian is voting him" when he's got the "replaced Near" free-pass.

[Dasquian]

Another ongoing game just finished yesterday, and I was right again about the scum before getting NK'd.

I'm now 7 for 7 in the scum I've caught. I am trying very hard to not get big-headed, but its becoming harder and harder as I am proven right time and time again.

Fantastic! I couldn't be more pleased for you! Well done you!

You are wrong here and now, and your past successes don't make that any less so.

[Dasquian]

Oh yeah. I have information I am not allowed to talk about regarding Dasquian.

By mod rules, I am not allowed to speak of it. Be assured that I have this tell 99.7% down pat.

I hate knowing someone is scum without being able to convince anybody because I'm not allowed to talk about it. Grr...

I understand your dilemma and appreciate your constraints, but again, you're wrong. Whatever tell you think you have, you don't. In any case, this line of discussion has to stop here and it's surely time for everyone else to weigh in.

[Dasquian]

So go on then, ABR, I'm intrigued... what's the tell you had on me that made you 99.7% sure I was scum?

Well-played, scum. I had PyroDwarf nailed but Joudas and Yos totally fooled me, and I was unable to convince people to join me on PD wagon in the face of ABR's one-man-mission to take down the town

[Dasquian]

I was absolutely shocked no scum had anything to do with the Coron lynch but,

damn

, if that's not a case against last-minute rush-lynches, I don't know what is.

- Albert can be ennerving, but I like his style. If he dominated the town, that's because no one had the balls to tell him "Stop, Albert, you're not being helpful" - or ignore him altogether.

COUGH. SPLUTTER. This was about the only thing I

was

saying, after he started laying into me. In fact I think everyone said this over and over, especially Yos-scum It didn't stop everyone quick-lynching me while my back was turned, though

Really the only bad play ABR can take full credit for is hammering Mac in end-game. The other ABR-influenced lynches happened because people thought he knew what he was doing and followed him in doing that - I really did do my best to debunk ABR's non-argument (hell, I even posted the MD thread where he lays out his strategy) and point everyone in the direction of doc-fisher Pyro and it wasn't enough :/

Oh man, I sound ever bitter there. I'm not really - I enjoyed this game a lot and although I would've liked a chance for a swan-song post, I regret nothing. It was certainly a learning experience! Thanks Claus

[Dasquian]

Yeah, you did a great job for a first game DBE - my biggest advice for the future would not to try to placate other players by voting how you think they want you to - only vote for who you think is most likely scum. You did a great job staying active and managed to persuade me you were most likely town, though, so great job

[Dasquian]

Hmm, two great jobs. Great job, Dasquian.