Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!
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Jitsu
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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- Posts: 461
- Joined: October 11, 2007
- Location: Cary, NC
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Jitsu Goon
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- Posts: 461
- Joined: October 11, 2007
- Location: Cary, NC
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Jitsu Goon
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- Posts: 461
- Joined: October 11, 2007
- Location: Cary, NC
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Jitsu Goon
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- Posts: 461
- Joined: October 11, 2007
- Location: Cary, NC
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Jitsu Goon
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- Posts: 461
- Joined: October 11, 2007
- Location: Cary, NC
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Jitsu Goon
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Interesting.... Well, this game is certainly moving, isn't it?
My analysis so far (not that there's a whole lot to analyze at this point):
We have a CKD wagon and Korlash wagon each with 3 votes on page 2, and everyone seems to be playing it very cool and nonchalant. Seems to be hard to get a read on anyone at this point, though it's likely that scum are on at least one of the wagons.
Jayalay gets a townie point for asking Miztef about his third vote.
CKD has been silent since the wagon formed on him (though it's only been about a day since then), and Korlash is still joking around a bit.
GunslingerKB pops out of his cell and immediately drops a third vote on Korlash.
All of the votes still seem to be (semi) random at this point, and nobody is overly defensive. It could be that scum are building a second wagon to take early heat off of CKD, but it's too premature for a fingernail of suspicion at this point.
Anyone else have any thoughts so far?-
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Jitsu Goon
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[quote="Miztef"]jitsu, where is your avvie from? It's interesting.
the game is moving along slightly, but I have very little reads on people. I think I'll keep my vote for now, see where it goes.
I think it's nice that jitsu tried to comment of everyone, although I don't think it makes him more protown atm, as there is little to analyze.
My avatar is Kei Kusanagi from the anime/manga "Onegai Teacher" ("Please Teacher" in the US). Brief plot summary: An alien chick (who of course looks just like a human and is extremely hot) comes to earth to observe humans and gets a job as a teacher. A mixup happens and Kei pretends to be her husband in order to save her job. Things get interesting as the two have to keep up appearances of being married to the school principal, while they try to hide the relationship from Kei's friends.
I am studying Japanese, but I'm only semi-fluent so far.
And yes, I am trying to start some discussion going, though I concede things won't get interesting until someone gets a fourth or fifth vote. I obviously don't have much mafia experience, but I have read through a *lot* of games on this site to learn the strategy before I signed up for this one.-
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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I agree.Miztef wrote:We do need a fourth vote sometime soon, or someone to slip up badly. (preferably scum)
At this point, it seems more likely that the former will occur than the latter. No reason for the scum to overreact yet.
If nobody else votes, I will soon, but I'd like to hear from some of the other players who haven't said much yet.-
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Jitsu Goon
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Because we need to get information, and we need to get a reaction out of somebody to get things going. Like the others have said, the random wagons will fall apart and people will unvote if there really isn't anything there. I don't plan on putting a vote on somebody and leaving it there without a reason to do so.
I agree with you that we need more input, but the others are correct about something; when someone only has 2 or 3 votes on them, there is not sufficient pressure for anything to happen. Yours was the strongest reaction we've gotten out of anyone so far -- and I was just talking about placing a vote, let alone doing anything about it.
Besides, it's not like there are any non-random bandwagons out there to vote on, and it's darn near impossible to legitimately justify a vote on anyone else at this point.
With three votes, you're hardly in danger of a lynch, and none of those were serious votes anyway. I hadn't even decided who I was going to vote for yet.
Why so defensive?-
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Jitsu Goon
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@Korlash:
I thought we needed a fourth vote at some point because nobody flinched with three votes on them and nobody seemed interested in changing a vote so far. So I dangled the possibility of a fourth vote out there to test the waters. And you reacted. It wasn't a huge reaction, for sure, but it was a reaction.
I saw your reaction and decided to press it a bit to see what would shake out. I would have expected you to react like you did if I had actually voted for you, but not when I was just talking about it.
To answer your question: it wasn't anything specific you said, as much as how much you said and the timing.
I agree with you about not focusing too much on one person. Sure, I could vote for someone that doesn't have many votes on them yet, but I'm not going to learn anything at this point by putting a vote on Jayalay or Anata, for example. Though, if people lurk a few more days, I wouldn't mind putting a vote on a lurker to encourage them to talk. I'd rather not do that on the weekend though, when people are less active.-
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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Guys, I'll comment on the rest of what's happenend in the morning, but I want to comment on the massclaim now:
I don't fault Sudo_Nym for what he said. He did open the door for the question when he suggested there was an effective way he could think of doing things, so I called him on it and asked for an explanation. And he gave one -- preferencing it by calling it a stupid idea is something I agree with, so I don't fault him for that. Once I asked for the explanation, he was effectively committed to saying something, and he answered as well as he could. I believe that it was just an idea that was hanging around the back of his mind that subconsciously found its way out -- I don't think he wasn't entertaining the idea seriously.
Needless to say, a massclaim is a horrendous idea right now. Regardless of what the scum do, any power roles we may have as town, those power roles would be forced into an awful situation: They would either need to: (1) stay silent and lie (pretend to be vanilla townies) to protect their idenities, which would make them seem suspicious later. If a scum falseclaims a power role and the genuine player stays silent, the town will believe the scum for a while (early power role claims tend to be trusted because they are a big, big risk for the scum, plus they are testable), while the scum gleefully cause all kind of confusion. At that point, both townies AND scum have liekly lied, while the remaining players have to sort out the mess. -or- (2) the town power roles tell the truth and/or counterclaim any false scum claims so people trust them. Guess who gets NK'd by the mafia then?
The time for a massclaim is later in the game, when several days go by and we get a better feel for who is suspicious and who is not. At that time, any potential power roles have done their jobs (and hopefully given us results) and are more ready for a claim. Usually such a claim will buy you an extra night's investigation if a doctor is present, or if the claimed power roles can be trusted, can swing the game in the town's favor by helping narrow down the possible scum. The massclaim is a powerful town asset, but not when it's used too early. The primary goals for the town on day one are to lynch a scum if possible, and protect the power roles so they can use their powers.-
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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@Korlash:
True. I admit it was a little unfair to you personally, but I do think it ended up helping the town with the information it's generated, as you pointed out. If you had thought to mention this right away, you would have looked a lot less suspicious. If you acted like you had nothing to hide (as I expected you to), I wouldn't have gotten much out of it.Your basically putting me in a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario here. If I don't answer the questions I look scummy, yet if I do you call it defensive and use that against me.
This may suprise people, but I also am guessing you are townie. There's only two possibilities to me: you are a scum furiously backpedaling to get out of a bad situation, or you are a townie that got caught flat footed and are working furiously to try to clear your name. I think if you were scum you would have been a bit more careful to start with, and would not have continued to draw attention to yourself like you have. You seem determined to explain your way out of the mess and the suspicions you have raised on the others make sense to me. I believe you were just frustrated and scrambling to fix things -- I am getting a townie read off of that. I actually turned my attention off of you and onto some of the others last night, which you will see in a moment. I still have a little suspicion on you, but I think there are better targets to pursue now.
@Miztef:
You seem surprised that no one voted for you in response to your Korlash vote? I wasn't online then, but when I saw your vote later, I did find it suspicious since Korlash was already squirming at that point. To me, it sounded like a convenient time to put the fourth vote on him without much suspicion, but this by itself was not enough for a vote on you in my opinion -- I think it's possible to justify that you were continuing what I started to see if anything more shook out. However, the thing that really piqued my interested was your post #71. It looked like you were noticeably irritated that people were jumping on Mexal ("he's on god damn vacation"?). It certainly looked to me like you were jumping in to defend him and give him some excuses.
Sure, maybe Mexal didn't read closely, but Sudo_Nym was careful to include numerous disclamers. Given that you had to read a bunch of those disclaimers to even get to what Sudo_Nym was saying, I find it hard to buy the argument that he didn't read it carefully enough because he was on vacation. Either Mexal had a really sloppy/hurried read (in which case his comments had limited usefulness anyway), or he just took an opportunity to jump on a wagon. I can't tell if you were being the voice of reason there, or helping out a scumbuddy.
Even if you did want to keep people from jumping to conclusions about Mexal, why didn't you just let Mexal answer in his own defense? You could still have posted afterwards, and we would have gotten a better read on him in the meantime.
@Sudo_Nym
Regarding the mass claim, I find it less suspicious due to all of the disclaimers, but from what I've seen in other games, even saying the words "Mass claim" on Day 1 is right up there with "Suggesting a No Lynch since we can't get a good read on anyone" -- it's a great way to get lynched. a great way to attract a huge amount of suspicion. I think you realized that after you opened the door, but given the number of disclaimers you threw in there, I think you answered me as best you could, so I'm not finding that as suspicious.
@Mexal
As mentioned above, I am havious doubts that you saw the mass claim and missed Sudo_Nym's disclaimers. I mean if there was just one disclaimer, I could see overlooking it, but holy crap, that entire message was like one giant disclaimer with the full claim explanation buried somewhere in the middle. Sudo even put the word "stupid" in italics. Sure, there's a possibility that Sudo_Nym was trying to get away with innocently floating the mass claim idea, but ultimately, I agree with Korlash calling you on it and his FoS on you seemed to be a good response -- strong enough to send a message, but not overreacting. You did state your dislike of the mass claim, but people pretty much have to do that, as fighting for a mass claim would be suicide at this point. Given that Sudo_Nym was the player you attacked, I can understand his vote on you.
@CuriousKarmaDog:
I like your post #81. I agree with your logic, particularly about Miztef.
@anata:
I understand that the newbie tendency is to sit back and analyze without saying anything, but that doesn't help the town at all. Even if you simply state your opinions on what has been said without coming up with a new analysis, that's still a benefit to the town. I would like to hear what you think.
@The others:
I haven't seen anything suspicious from Jerubbaal yet. Several people have commented on my play, even Korlash himself did in the middle of the action, so I don't see Jerubbaal aligning himself with me any more than anyone else has at this point. Jerubbaal did continue to ride Korlash a bit, but I think he was looking more to try to precisely what Korlash was actually saying than anything.
I also agree with oEJo's comments, but I can't get much of a read from him, Abstract Actuary or Jayalay due to limited info. At least oEJo has stated his opinions.
So I will give aFoS:Miztef, Mexalfor the reasons above. I'm honestly not sure who is more deserving of a vote at this point, but I'd like to hear more from Mexal about the reasoning for his vote on Sudo_Nym before I consider my next move.-
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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- Posts: 461
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Jitsu Goon
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Post 84:
Post 90:Miztef wrote:Usually my gameplay is seen is heavily scummy right from the get go, so it's just a different feeling for me.
So, which one is it? It seems like you are contradicting yourself here.Miztef wrote:I've noticed that in games where I'm mafia, people tend not to suspect me for a good while, cause I tend to play more cautious.
Post 86:Miztef wrote:God I am such a bad pro-town player.
Are you trying to make a (not so) subtle play here that you must be pro-town because you say your play is so awful? I don't think I'm buying that. It sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me -- it's like you are trying to use existing bad town play to excuse/explain even more scummy behavior.
In my opinion, saying you're a bad pro-town player is more than a bit of a cop out. From the games I've read, many of the best scum are really good town players too, so it seems to me that it would be a benefit to you to try to play better as town.-
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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Well, this has been an interesting turn of events, hasn't it? When I first read Mexal's posts, I was offended at him for attacking me, but then I decided to reread with an open mind and a fresh perspective after considering his comments, like I promised. The Mexal voters out there will not like this, but it is in the town's interest to consider all theories and not look at things from only one side. So here is my analysis on Mexal's counterpoints.
Jerubbaal kind of beat me to the punch a bit, but it took a while to create this post.
I've also got a lot of questions for people, in light of my reread.
@Mexal
I do agree that Sudo_Nym should never have even mentioned his idea about a massclaim. He should have guessed that someone would call him on his idea. It was a horrible idea for all the reasons people stated. I even credited you for that.
To answer your questions, I honestly didn't consider the case that you had read the post carefully and disregarded the disclaimers. In retrospect, I should have, given that I even mentioned the possibility that Sudo_Nym's massclaim idea was not completely innocent. I think I see where you are going with your counterpoint, though. Sudo either made a really bad slip (which he realized right away), or he totally played us by testing the waters for a horrible massclaim, and then using the disclaimers to cast suspicion on you.
At this point, I can't be sure if it was an honest mistake on Sudo's part, or if he was really trying to slide one in there. Given how most of us seem to have only a few weeks or months of experience, it could well have been a newbie mistake, but you did not seem to seriously consider that possibility. You seem pretty sure that he was not making a casual mistake -- what made you so sure?
I think I would have felt less suspicious of you if you had objected to the massclaim without voting immediately, and then saved your vote for today when you returned so that you could explain your reasons a little better. Also, you seemed to take Sudo's massclaim idea a lot more seriously than did everyone else. Even with several newbies in the game, I think it the chances were nil that it was ever gonna fly (it only takes one veteran player to explain why it is so bad), so your quick and very brief objection coupled with a vote without much an explanation did look somewhat scummy to me.
If you have been really trying to help the town by potentially exposing Sudo, I think you would have earned a lot more town points if you had focused more on presenting the "Sudo is playing us" theory in a less antagonistic way than counterattacking those who attacked you (myself included).
Also, it seems clear to me that Miztef did try to defend you in post 71. Miztef has hardly been racking up townie points this game, so I still really wonder why he so quickly jumped to your defense. He seemed genuinely annoyed at the rest of us who attacked you. From your posts after that, particularly your response to Anata's post, you seem to have suspicions on Miztef also. Why did you not attempt to distance yourself from Miztef's comments defending you in that post or when I raised the theory of you two as a scumpair? I would never have thought to consider the two of you as a scumpair before his post 71.
It's likely that one of you and Sudo_Nym is scum and the other is not, but I don't know who to believe at this point. I'm not ready to completely take my suspicion off of you at this point, but you've raised enough doubt for me to back off and take a more neutral stance on you and Sudo_nym. I am not throwing my support behind you; I am simply acknowledging that your counterpoint is plausible. It is always best for the town to consider all possibilities.
If you can make a stronger case against Sudo_Nym, I'd like to hear it.
@Sudo_Nym
I have some questions for you also, to give you a chance to clarify things. What made you think of the massclaim idea originally? Did you had a previous game where a very early massclaim was beneficial to the town? If you really did think it was a stupid idea as you said, why did you even mention it to begin with? Were you aware that even mentioning a mass claim on Day 1 is a really bad idea in a game of this size?
@Miztef
Post 36:
Post 49:no real reason for 3rd vote, just decided to get the game moving forward. Seems to be workingWe do need a fourth vote sometime soon, or someone to slip up badly. (preferably scum)
Post 58:However, we do need to start picking out the first candidates for lynch, and I think I'll unvote vote: Korlash
Post 63:Right now, I think I'm gonna lay off pushing any wagons very hard, we need a bit more activity from other players.
Post 84:I wouldn't mind changing my vote at this time, just have no one to change it to. I am starting to get the impression korlash is town, but only slightly, so I think I'll stick to it until my scumdar picks up something good.
Post 103:This game is going crazy fast in my opinion, even for my impatient self. That's why I feel it should be slowed down slightly. I'm not talking about everyone lurking or anything like that, just a little more thought to things, instead of super fast accusations on many people.
I find this sequence highly suspicious. You had a consistent stance that you wanted to get the game moving since the game began, but after post 58, you did a complete 180 a mere FIVE POSTS LATER in post 63! Why?
Between posts 58 and 103, you have run the entire gamut of patience and impatience here. To be honest, I don't think the game is going crazy fast (in terms of moving toward a lynch). Sure, accusations have been flying, but even with that, the players have been pretty good at not voting irresponsibly. In fact, the highest anyone has been so far in this game is L-3, and YOU were the one that put Korlash there. The truth is that there have not been a lot of votes cast in comparison to other games. Actually we have been able to extract good information from people without a lot of votes, which is quite remarkable and good town play. I've seen too many games that random vote for a while, then get someone up to L-2 without a great reason, which compels a claim. The more cautious style of play in this game is greatly benefiting the town, IMHO.
Also, as others have said, you may not have wanted to push the wagons further, but you STILL have your vote on Korlash, even though you say you are starting to think he is town! If you feel that he is at all more likely to be town than scum, it is a horrible play to keep a vote on him past the random stage. You've got whatever reaction you were going to get from him, and I hardly think you are going to get more information by keeping your vote on him.
Do you still feel that Korlash is more scummy than anyone else in this game? If Korlash really is scum and is screwing up that bad, why not leave the "obvious" scum Korlash until day 2 and try to vote for someone that will give us much more information. What would you expect to learn about the other players if Korlash were lynched? If Korlash is giving you a slightly townie vibe, then who are your candidates for scum??
@Mod
I Unvoted for Abstact in post 34. Can you fix the vote count please?-
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Jitsu Goon
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Yeah, "offended" isn't the right word -- I really need to stop posting at 3 am my time. I really didn't take it personally. I know it's just a game. I suppose I was more shocked than anything.Mexal wrote:Don't ever get offended. It's not personal. I will attack you. I will attack everyone. I'm a very aggressive player and it's amazing what you can find out when you exert the right amount of pressure. Your posts were misleading, I called you out on it.
I understand this, but if you are innocent, it's in the town's best interest if you can calm down so that we can get a truer read on you. A highly frustrated person almost always looks somewhat scummy, regardless of what the truth is.Mexal wrote:My frustration level is through the roof right now.
Let's suppose for a moment that you are indeed telling the truth and Sudo_Nym is scum. If that were true, don't you think Sudo_Nym did a pretty good job of introducing the massclaim idea in a subtle and believable way that (us) newbies could accept? So when you come storming in, claiming to see through his lies and acting so aggressively, the newbies are either stuck trying to figure out who to believe, or are latching onto your frustration instead of seeing the bigger picture. Of course, you would naturally be frustrated because you see the truth and can't get anyone else to see they are being played.
If that is what has happened, the picture is not as bleak as it appears. At the very least, I am understanding your argument and am now taking them seriously, even if I'm not in your corner at the moment. And Jerubbaal seems to be considering your points also.
@Miztef:
Okay, so what was it that made you change your mind between posts 58 and 63? I can't see anything obvious that happened in thread to cause that, and your shift was a pretty dramatic one in a short amount of time.About the quote wall you made for me, I suppose it is inconsistent, but honestly, that's just me switching my mind about what I think should be happening, It's still not very clear in my mind in the first place. I do agree that the game is going well though.
@Korlash:
Yes, I do want to ask you some things, but I need time to sort through what has been said, and to reread the posts involving you. I wanted to get my comments posted on Mexal and Miztef first, because that seems to be the current hot button topic.
I also want to reread to try to get reads on some of the other players. I've been focusing so much on the Mexal/Sudo_Nym/Miztef angle that I haven't been keeping up with reads on the other players, and I want to do that.-
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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This is in responst to Jerubbaal's post 140. I saw just before posting this that more has been posted since but I haven't read it yet.
Your statements are fair. I agree that committing a fallacy in my logic there, just as I did with Mexal. That begs the question, "if it was a mistake, what were you thinking?" I think in spite of my caution with placing votes and perceptiveness with regards to details, perhaps I was a bit too eager in trying to pin down scum. To be fair though, I did not jump back onto Sudo after I changed my thinking on Mexal.
The second fallacy was honestly not an attempt to put words in Mexal's mouth, though I can see why you thought that. I was simply trying to work out the logic of the theory I had come up with.
I admit I made a mistake regarding what you pointed out above, and another one previously for jumping on Mexal without considering the countercase. I messed up, but I'm honestly trying to scumhunt the best I can. Clearly, I need to think through my logic more before presenting my cases.
As I kind of hinted in my last post to him, I get a townie read off of Mexal and from you as well. Your post was really the first to fully consider the plausibility of Mexal's arguments at a time when such an opinion was still unpopular among the active players -- I had already started my reply but not posted it yet. Also, the tone I read from Mexal is that he seems to be trying to help me improve my play, which I appreciate.
As for Sudo_Nym, I'm not sure what to think now. I want to consider what he says before I make up my mind.
I am getting slight townie vibes off of CKD as well, for his pursuit of the suspicions on Miztef.
As with you, Miztef is at the top of my list also. He seems to have made poor excuses for what he admits is bad town play and is only now starting to defend some of his choices. I noticed his recent posts have gotten a lot tighter too, like he is trying to lay low. For a reasonably active player, he doesn't seem to have a lot of good substance in his posts. He seems to be putting votes on people without following up on them.
For Gorlash, I admit I got a little lost in his exchange with Mexal. I have noticed some things I want to follow up on, but I want to reread to get a more complete picture on him.
I haven't paid a lot of attention to oEJo or Abstract lately. I want to try to get reads on them also.-
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Jitsu Goon
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This analysis doesn't sound fair to me. You seem to have pointed out everything negative I've done, and not mentioned any of the positive things I've done. It even sounds like you are subtly attempting to link me to Miztef by mentioning some things we happened to agree on at the time. How do you reconcile this with the criticism I've put on him since then?Anata112 wrote: Jitsu
He first started off with a vote for Abstract, and then unvoted him. He stated that Jayalay seems townie-ish and that the initial voting stage was quite random. When Miztef started pushing for a fourth vote, he agreed. He also agrees with Miztef that random voting is good for checking for people’s reaction. He also seconds the guess that korlash is a townie. It’s interesting to me on how he’s sure that certain people have a townie-vibe. After checking for new posts, he agrees that sudo_nym shouldn’t have proposed the mass claim, but he was the one that asked sudo_nym what his ideas were. Am I wrong here?
Also, where do I say that I'mcertainthat someone is townie? I don't remember ever saying such a thing, because I was never that sure.
I did ask Sudo_Nym about his idea, but only because he hinted he had something to say first (post #55). I merely called him on it (post #60). I admit to committing logical fallacies in relation to the massclaim, but I don't see how I contradicted myself just by asking what Sudo_Nym meant.
I don't really know if I'm good at scum hunting or not. As I said, I think I've been perceptive and asked some good questions, but I believe I need some work on applying the correct logic to what I've seen, based on some mistakes I've made.Anata112 wrote: I still can’t decide whether Jitsu is simply really good at scum-hunting, or whether he’s trying act townie, so I can’t agree with Jerubbaal.
It took me a read or two to get it, but I think I see what what you're up to. Your timing for a subtle attack on me is impeccable, as I am reeling from the mistakes I've made on the logical fallacies Mexal and Jerubbaal, which I pointed out. I suppose you are trying to bait me into jumping up and down and OMGUS voting you so you can point to that as further evidence on me? Nice try, but I'm not biting.
Needless to say, you've alerted my suspicions (FOS:Anata), but I don't think I can present a strong enough case on you to convince the others. I'll go back to scum hunting, but IGMEOY.-
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Jitsu Goon
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I have lots of comments to make, but I really need some sleep, as I spent the last two nights staying up late writing long posts. But I want to comment on what Sudo_Nym has said since I can make comments on his post quickly.
Of course it's true that power roles lay low, and aggressive players are less likely to be power roles to protect themselves from scrutiny and help ensure they get to use their powers longer. But why did you see the need to tell everyone this and narrow down the potential hit list for the mafia? We have plenty of newbies in this game, and there is absolutely no guarantee they would have already known this. This is an incredibly awful anti-town move.Sudo_Nym wrote: Mexal- Like I said, I appreciate the aggresive gameplay, though I don't do so myself. His style lends itself to natural scuminess, but he strikes me as being innocent enough. I'd say probably town, but could go either way. If he is town, he probably doesn't have a power role- most people (even the aggressive ones) tend to lay off a bit more when they have a power role; though this rapidly denegrates into WIFOM.
I said it was innocent at first because Mexal was being aggressive and more importantly, I believed you. After what Mexal said, I did reverse my opinion somewhat, and your most recent post has only reinforced my position that trusting you was foolish. I won't say for sure that you are scum, but IMO, your recent post is even more suspicious than the massclaim was.Sudo_Nym wrote: Jitsu- Interesting. When the whole thing started, says its innocent; that I was locked into saying something after he asked. However, he has seemingly reversed his opinion on the insistence of Mexal. Perhaps he's trying to blend in with whatever mob appears to be in the lead?
And Mexal did not insist that I do anything. He presented his case and I made up my own mind after listening to him and to you.-
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First of all, I'm not your friend.Sudo_Nym wrote:And since when does pointing out what should be obvious become anti-town? Knowledge is power, friend- and at this stage, the mafia has all the knowledge. Anything that increases the level of knowledge to the players increases the town's chance to win. Besides, the point I made should be readily available to anyone who cared to research the game before playing it. Though I do understand if others didn't do as much prereading as I did before my first game.
Look at the join dates of the players in this game. Several have joined in October, and a bunch more in September and August. You seem to be one of the more experienced players, having joined this spring. Almost everyone else has less than 5 months experience. There are many relative newbies in this game and is is not unreasonable to expect that we have newbie scum in our midst. Given, as you say, that you understand that others may not have done as much prereading as you did before your first game, you've all but confirmed my point. It is far from certain that everyone would have known that townies with power roles generally lay low.
You have put any town power roles in far greater danger of being NK'ed than they were before, in exchange for what information? Helping the town get a slightly better read on Mexal? If I were scum, I would make that trade in a heartbeat.
With subtly suggesting the massclaim earlier, and now providing valuable information to scum, you've now commited two cardinal sins of Mafia on Day 1. If you do come up town, this is probably some of the worst Day 1 town play I've ever seen.
There's just one thing about this that doesn't make any sense to me that is stopping me from voting for you right now. If you are scum, why did you give out this information to the other scum when you could simply have told them this at night? It's almost as if you're trying to look suspicious. Maybe because you're a Jester? I don't know. Since I don't fully trust my logic at this point, maybe the other townies can help me fill in the blanks.-
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Or maybe Sudo_Nym is some kind of special role that helps mafia but does not get to communicate with them at night? Is that possible?
I keep looking at it again and again, but I can't make the pieces fit. Sudo's play is too awful to be town, but it's actually horrible scum play also. I just can't make him fit as ordinary scum either. I can't believe that he could be THAT stupid. There must be some other explanation.
Jester is a small probability, but given the rules post, NabakovNabakov said that as soon as someone fulfills their win condition, all other players instantly lose -- that stuck out in my mind, as it is different from most games (which play on until all player's win conditions are achieved or become impossible to achieve). A Jester present would seem to make this game horribly unbalanced against the town, so I can't make that scenario fit either.
What the hell is left?-
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Jitsu Goon
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I think you are reading what I said the wrong way. I did not assume that join date = experience level. I know that there are other sites and ways to play mafia outside of this one, so join dates are not always reliable. If someone does have a lot of posts on mafia scum and has played in a number of games here, it is not unreasonable to assume they are experienced (and therefore, should probably know better to disclose information that can benefit scum). If someone's join date is recent and they have not made a lot of posts, it is impossible to draw a conclusion, other than they could be a newbie.Mexal wrote:You're making two assumptions here which you would be good to avoid, both in this game and in the future.
Since the join dates of players this game are mostly recent,we cannot tellif the players here are experienced or not. Therefore, in this game, it is even worse than normal to say anything that could benefit potential newbie scum in our midst.
I'll say something else. I believe anata to be scum from her recent post about me, but because she was so extremely crafty and careful about her wording, I don't feel that I can make a strong case against her. Thus, I feel that she is either highly experienced (with a lot of experience playing mafia elsewhere) or is highly skilled. And her join date is this month.
I didn't really assume it was true in this case either, but I can see how you can get that from my post because my wording wasn't as precise as it should have been. I know power roles are very common in mafiascum games, but I know there are some games that do not even have any. The C9 setup page on the wiki says so (one of the four choices for a C9 newbie game does not have ANY power roles, and that was done to defeat the breaking strategy developed for the newbie games before that). Perhaps I did overestimate a little the probability of a power-role townie to lay low, but to be truthful, in a fair number of games I read, that was the case. I have read more than a few games where it wasn't, so I do not think I would use that logic unconditionally.Mexal wrote:2. Townies with power roles generally lay low. This is simply not true. It could be true and sometimes it is, but it's not always true and while you said generally, you're still making the assumption that it's true in this case. Be careful with that.
I should have said something more like that what he's done has potentially endangered any power roles the town might have. That is the meaning I was going for. I really don't have any clue yet what, if any power roles are in the game, and who they might be. I think it's much more accurate to draw conclusions about that based on night actions.-
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Another matter I want to ask townies about.
If the town does have some kind of cop or investigative role (which I don't know is true or not), is it true that this point that investigating Sudo_Nym tonight might not be the best play? Given that Sudo_Nym's play doesn't seem to fit pro-town or standard mafia, it's feasible that he might have a special role of some sort. If that's the case, whatever result we obtain may not be very reliable.-
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Jitsu Goon
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Mexal wrote: I don't agree with this at all. Her post lacked any real insight. It was more a summary of what has happened with a few comments. There was no real conclusions drawn or cases made. She might be scum, but I don't think that post says anything about her level of skill or experience.
Good point. I will reread it again.
Don't worry, I am. I was just trying to clarify to Mexal what I meant.Mexal wrote: Anyway, please take my responses as constructive criticism. I'm pretty sure you're town so anything I criticize is mostly to help you improve.
@GunslingerKB:
I am really not butting heads with Mexal at all. If you reread the posts he's made and the responses I've given, I've actually been following his advice, because I think he's right about me. I believe him more than a lot of other people right now, and he honestly seems to be helping me improve as a player. I can see how you think I might be acting though, so I don't blame you for the vote on me.-
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I searched for the Traitor role in the Wiki. It says:
I'm not saying that Sudo_Nym is a traitor, but this is a possibility we shouldn't ignore. There is at least a small chance that Sudo_Nym could be trying to breadcrumb his role to the mafia somehow, regardless of what he actually is. The wiki text also seems to reinforce the idea that an investigation on Sudo_Nym could mislead us, even if the supposed cop were sane.Traitor is the most common role on the Mafia side that isn't actually in the Mafia family. There are several variations of this role.
Most commonly the Traitor knows who is in the Mafia, but the Mafia do not know who the Traitor is. The Traitor works, through his or her Vote, to keep the Mafia from getting Lynched.
Another variation is the Mafia Spy (a.k.a. Devil). This version does not know who is in the Mafia, but can investigate once each Night to look for Cops or perhaps other power roles, that he then can try to expose during the day.
In a third variation, sometimes used in conjunction with one of the others, the Mafia can choose at any time in the game to recruit their Traitor. Before this time, the Traitor appears innocent to Cops, and/or has investigative abilities. Once recruited, the Traitor becomes a normal Mafia member.-
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Wow, with all of the simultaneous posting there, I didn't catch part of GunslingerKB's post.
I thought I had a pretty good read on the game, but after Sudo_Nym's gaffe and some insightful comments from Mexal, oEJo and others, my world just got turned upside down.
I think I have a good read on the players I suspect as townie, but my read on the scum just went kablooey.
I still get scummy vibes from Miztef, my opinions on him haven't changed much., and I still don't like Anata's analysis (I haven't forgotten that I need to respond to that).
And I just don't know where to put Sudo_Nym, because I can't make the logic fit. I don't believe he is a regular mafioso. I am leaning toward either a townie (whose play I completely don't understand) or some kind of anti-town special role.-
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Alright, let me turn this around and the question another way.Mexal wrote:Sudo might be a traitor but he's done a poor job thus far. The point of a traitor is to help the mafia avoid being lynched, not get lynched themselves for anti-town comments.
Sudo has apparently done a poor job of being a townie, a poor job of being a regular mafioso, and a poor job of being a traitor.
It's certainly possible (and maybe even probable) that he is still a townie playing poorly.
But let's consider the remaining possibilities for a second: other than a Jester, which would seem to be unlikely in this setup, is there anything that Sudo has beengoodat?-
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No worries, I'm not assuming that it can only lead it to some strange role. I am merely trying to explore all of the possibilities, even unlikely ones. The thought of a blatant scum is still possible, I think.jerubbaal wrote: I'm not sure I bite on all this weird role stuff with Sudo. It's certainly possible, and we shouldn't discount that he might be something strange like a traitor, but it could just as easily be that he is a townie making bad townie plays or a scum making blatant scummy moves. Maybe he's just a bad player and maybe he just didn't think his arguments through all the way. It seems presumptuous to assume that his strange moves can only lead him to some strange role.
Occam and his razor would suggest you are correct anyway. It's the simplest explanation.-
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A better way of stating my comments in post 204 would be, since nothing seemed to fit well for me with Sudo, I was trying to test other theories to see if they were a better fit with the observations everyone has made, but nothing seems to stand out as a better option. At this point, almost anything is possible.
You did make a good point in 203 that blatant scum is still a possibility, so my comments in 204 reflected that.-
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That's fair.
I'm not just new to the site. This is the first game of mafia I've ever played, though I've read a lot of games here on the site before I joined this one. I am quickly finding out that actually playing the game is totally different than "playing along" with one as you read.
I'm just beginning to get a little frustrated. I'm really trying to help the town in the best way I can, but it seems I keep making small mistakes that keep my analyses from being really, really useful. So close, yet so far. I'm grateful to the other townies that are helping me become better.
But getting discouraged definitely won't help the town, so I need to keep trying. At least, it's made it difficult for anyone to call me a lurker.
It's painfully clear that I've analyzed this Sudo thing to death and I need to start looking for fresh leads.-
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I can't believe this. Is that the only reason you have, or is there some other reason for voting him?GunslingerKB wrote:more posts, I think sudo_nym is really the way we should go first day. He seems a little wonky.Vote: Sudo
And more than just voting him, you insist that he is the play for today. That's quite a strong statement to begin with, and doubly so since your reason for voting him is weak in the first place.
One could also get the impression from this post that you're ready for the day to end. Why are you in such a hurry?-
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@Miztef:
I notice your play has gotten considerably tighter. Previously you didn't defend yourself and called your own play horrible. Now you are attempting to say something, and actually defend yourself but I can't really find anything substantive in your posts, and I still get the feeling that you are overall very lazy, and like others have said, attempting to put votes on people and let others push. You've posted no true in-depth analysis other than "general vibes" on people.
Also, you say you think Mexal is the most pro-town and you trust his opinions most of the time, but last I remember, he thought the attacks I and others made on you had merit. I know the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but why do you say you trust someone (a fairly strong statement of innocence) that really doesn't seem to trust you?-
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I understand now. Yes, CKD did already call me on it, as he should have.jerubbaal wrote: jitsu - Trying to guide the cop is committing a number of bad things. One, you're claiming not-cop, which makes it easier for the mafia to find the cop. Two, it does sound like scum attempting to manipulate the actions of the town. I'm not so much demanding an answer for this one as pointing out that such guiding is really not a pro-town move. CKD kinda already called you out for this one.-
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I wasn't trying to speak for him here, I am only giving my impression on what I think his opinion of you is based on the last few comments he's made about you. Of course, it is better if Mexal gives his own opinions.Miztef wrote: About the Mexal comment, I actually didn't realize Mexal was still very keen on me, I only skimmed through his posts (as there are a whole lot of them, and I was focusing mostly on things that pinged my scumdar).-
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These comments are largely in response to post 153, with some in response to comments made after.
You seemed to completely misinterpret how the mass claim started here. Given how important of an event that was in the game, not taking the time to go back and see how it started is at least a little suspicious. Nobody else seemed to have a problem seeing what happened, so I don't think it was that subtle of a detail. And when you were called on it in post 154 by Mexal, your reply was basically "I suppose" and then you express that he may have been probing for scum. I'm sorry, but how does making an anti-town post like that root out scum? Giving support for a mass claim on Day 1 is potential suicide for any player. Nothing is definite, and even scum would be likely to denounce it or just keep quiet. Given all the lurking that was going on at the time, I would say that it was a pointless exercise at best. And when Mexal voted Sudo for making the stupid massclaim, Mexal retaliated by OMGUSing Mexal for it. How is that decent scum hunting? Sudo may or may not be scum, but IMO, he hasn't been a scum hunter in this game.Anata112 wrote: Sudo_Nym
He started off with a random vote (second for CKD), and tried to prod people when they reacted. He was part of the discussion about the necessity of the mass claim, but he didn’t propose it until Jitsu asked him for it. Later he unvoted for CKD, and voted for Mexal, but I don’t know why. Later he explains that he was just doing more random voting. I have a feeling that he’s just trying to hunt out the scum, rather than acting scummy.
I and others have already commented on how you were mistaken on how the mass claim started. When Mexal called you on this, your reply to him in post 163 was that "You suppose" and you reiterated the possibility that Sudo was scum hunting. I also challenged you to tell me when I mentioned I was sure certain people were townie, and you couldn't come up with any evidence (because there was none), even though you found the whole thing interesting (which tells me it particularly stood out in your mind for some reason).Anata112 wrote: Jitsu
He first started off with a vote for Abstract, and then unvoted him. He stated that Jayalay seems townie-ish and that the initial voting stage was quite random. When Miztef started pushing for a fourth vote, he agreed. He also agrees with Miztef that random voting is good for checking for people’s reaction. He also seconds the guess that korlash is a townie. It’s interesting to me on how he’s sure that certain people have a townie-vibe. After checking for new posts, he agrees that sudo_nym shouldn’t have proposed the mass claim, but he was the one that asked sudo_nym what his ideas were. Am I wrong here?
Conspicuously missing is my long exchange with Mexal where I pointed the FoS at him and then changed my mind as he presented his arguments to everyone -- and that had been concluded before you made your post. Where was commentary on that? And the logical fallacies I made, where is the commentary on that?
Huh? Did you not see the firestorm of suspicion that Sudo was under at that point? And that Sudo's defense was hardly inspiring then? He wanted to put pressure on Sudo to defend himself. It's right there in the post.Anata112 wrote: I still can’t decide whether Jitsu is simply really good at scum-hunting, or whether he’s trying act townie, so I can’t agree with Jerubbaal. I also don’t understand why he voted or sudo_nym since I couldn’t see a clear explanation. Considering that he feels that the random voting stage is done, then why did he vote for sudo_nym?
You're not sure why he voted for Sudo? Are you serious? The exchange that sprung up from this lasted severalAnata112 wrote: Mexal
Mexal voted for Korlash randomly (he was the first one), and then later unvoted and voted for sudo_nym. Again, I’m not sure why, and I would like to hear an explanation. He also agrees that a mass claim is a bad idea.pages. Even if you missed the reason on the post where he actually placed his vote, the reason is repeated several times over on the next few pages. When Mexal called you on this (#154), your response was "perhaps I missed something" (#162). You never answered his question.
When I read your post, I was sure you were trying to frame me. Now I'm a bit less sure, but I still think that's a possibility.
As for the rest of your analysis, I think it's total crap. Most of the stuff you mention is totally pointless and too much of it was a rehash of the random voting stage where nothing much was going on.
But more telling is all the stuff that was missing. You talk about the massclaim, but only to get it wrong about how it started and question the extremely obvious reasons for Mexal and Jerubbaal's votes on Mexal. There is not an ounce of commentary on the aggressive posts, disagreements, and the noticable swing of several players to Mexal's side of the argument. At that point in the game, that exchange provided enormously valuable information and after it was all over, likely formed some of the basis for some the reads people currently on each other.
While I don't expect anyone to cover every aspect of the game in a summary like this, and not every analysis can be completely comprehensive, you talked about a lot of things that had little impact on the game, and did not comment on just about everything that has had a big impact on the game.
One could simply say that you're a townie that has done a really, really sloppy job on reading and keeping up, and that you're lazy. Perhaps you were just looking for posts where people voted and reported some information about it. I admit that is a possibility.
But given that you seemed to know who was involved in the massclaim and you comment on votes that took place during it without mentioning any of the really telling events that happened, I have to think you read at least some of those posts. And if you did that, why didn't you go back and reread more carefully, as it should have been pretty obvious something was going on since votes were actually being placed then (unlike a lot of this game so far). I think it is possible that you intentionally distorted your analysis.
Also, I get the impression that you may have been trying to help out Sudo by deflecting suspicion from him. You didn't seem to understand the reason for any of the votes on him, yet you seemed to notice the votes themselves. When people were talking about their suspicions on him, you replied that it was possible that he could be scum hunting. When you thought I prodded him for the mass claim, it was suspicious enough to move me up to the top two on your most scummy list with Miztef (post 153), but Sudo_Nym, who actually said it, was probably scum hunting? I'm speechless.
You may be just a lazy townie, but at this point, I think it is more probable that you are scum, lazy or otherwise.
I also find Miztef and Gunslinger scummy at this point, but I think the others are adequately pressuring them already. You've given no real comment on anything important that's happened in this game, and I think you are flying under the radar. In light of all of the other reasons above, I want to put some pressure on you to start talking. So here it is.
Vote: Anata112
I'd also appreciate your comments on Sudo's speculation of Mexal having a power role or not (Post #164) and the recent attacks on Miztef and GunslingerKB.-
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So are you defending Gunslinger now? How is it correct to not take his votes seriously just because he hasn't backed his ideas with reasoning? Throwing out votes with little or no reasoning beyond the random voting stage is hardly pro-town behavior.Anata112 wrote: For example, I wouldn't take Gunslinger's votes or even his list as seriously as other players simply because he hasn't backed his ideas with sufficient reasoning. I noticed that Gunslinger ranked me quite high on his scummy list, but I don't know the reasoning behind it. Similarly, what is his reasoning behind his whole list?-
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Huh? How do you figure that? Putting pressure on someone to gauge their reaction is an important concept of the game! Just because it doesn't work on you doesn't mean it won't work on someone else.Sudo_Nym wrote:I love how people post that their votes are for pressure. For me, at least, saying that a vote is for pressure actually reduces the level of pressure on a person.
If you are townie, it is bad town play to refuse to defend yourself, because it makes you look guilty and makes people want to lynch you. How does that help the town?Sudo_Nym wrote: And my answers were never designed to satisfy anybody but myself, and for good reason. I don't know you from Adam; to attempt to soothe your nerves would be a fruitless endeavor. I post to satisfy myself, mainly, as I'm the only member of the game whose mind I know, and I do this regardless of my alignment. It works out well for me, normally, but occassionally gets me into trouble.
Your contribution to the game has been two theories, a massclaim that was never going to fly (followed by an OMGUS vote), and a speculation about Mexal having a power role, both of which were very bad town plays. How is this supposed to help find scum? Nobody is saying you have an obligation to act like "Goody-Two-Shoes" townie, but a self-serving defense like this has to rank up there as one of the worst ways to help the town.Sudo_Nym wrote: The main outpouring of this is theory. I prefer to talk in theory than anything else, because I find it to be an easier way for my mind to approach the game. However, this sometimes means that I come up with ideas that sound great to me but are unconnected with reality.
And I'm pretty sure being unconnected with reality is a really bad town play.
Are youtryingto get lynched? It's really starting to look that way to me.-
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Other than being a Jester (who wins if they get lynched), I don't know why. Making a bunch of anti-town plays, declaring that you don't care if you get lynched or not, and mentioning that you post only for your own benefit is not the way to avoid getting lynched.Sudo_Nym wrote:Why would I try to get lynched? You forget, that while I've been around longer than some, I'm still new, and still learning. And my own style of learning is to propose as many ideas as I can, and then listen to the reaction to learn whether the idea is good or bad, and why. The massclaim idea was similar. I knew it was bad, but I didn't know exactly why- a situation that made my think there's possibility for improvement down that path.
You say the strategy works for you in newbie games, but not in larger ones. So why continue to use a strategy that doesn't work? There is a wide latitude of strategies and playing styles permitted in these games, but Mafia is still is a group game, and not an individual competition. If you keep pulling this "I don't care if you lynch me or not" crap, nobody's going to want to play with you.
You say you like to approach the game by throwing out theories -- fine. Why don't you throw out some theories about who you think is scummy and why -- or is that too much to ask? I'd prefer reasoning and analysis, but at this point, if theorizing is your strong point, I'd prefer theories over "I don't care if you lynch me or not."-
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Who specificially do you classify in the group as having done significant lurking? I can make some likely guesses, but I'd rather not assume anything.
Other than general suspicion due to lurking, do you have any other theories/observations/comments on those who are currently in the spotlight(Anata112, GunslingerKB, Miztef)?-
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It's not really that amazing. If a case is convincing, the reasoning is sound, and the facts are presented clearly and without distortion, people will vote. Mexal and Jerubbaal can expand on their reasons for voting for you if they choose to, but if a strongly convincing post is made, it hardly needs a lot of commentary. I see Mexal and Jerubbaal as being the most pro-town at this point for their helpful insight, commentary that is helping encourage good town play, and pressure on those that look scummy. If Mexal and Jerubbaal say that the logic is good, it's probably because it is.Anata112 wrote:The amazing thing that this occurs within three hours. Does anyone else find this interesting? Jitsu makes this long post that I don't think I need to summarize. This is followed by Mexal and Jerubbal who simply say something to the likes of "I agree".
Gunslinger and Sudo_Nym have definitely done some things that are very much anti-town, which I and others have called them on. You were quick to put suspicion on me based on flawed and misrepresented evidence (intentional or not). And yet, you've not even admitted you've done this even though I and others have presented clear evidence of that and questioned your logic. Yet, when Sudo and Gunslinger did things that are at least as scummy (if not more so), you didn't find it suspicious at all. Sudo and Gunslinger may or may not be scum, but they have definitely made some noticeable anti-town plays. Whether you purposefully defended them or not, I don't know. But at the very least, you've condoned or excused scummy behavior, which is scummy in itself.Anata112 wrote:In my posts, I have never defended anyone. Everyone is a suspect in my mind until I get more information. However, there are certain opinions that I agree/disagree with, and when that occurs, I voice my opinion. I never purposefully defended Gunslinger or Sudo_nym.
I have no complaints about your tracking of the voting sequences. I agree this was accurate. But you said you didn't understand the reason for the votes, when there were clearly spelled out in the posts and spawned pages of aggressive posts that were virtually impossible to miss, even if you were just skimming. I believe that all of the other players involved understood the reasons for the votes pretty easily. A recap of who voted for who is nice, but anybody can do that with little effort.Anata112 wrote:In my analysis, I was looking for voting patterns. This was also for future reference in later stages of the game.
I wasn't just one of the suspects, I was in the top two. As I said, on my initial read, I got a strong impression that you were trying to frame me. I focused mostly on the portions that talked about me on those initial comments. On the reread, I considered the entire post altogether, and that's when I began to see patterns in your "analysis" in seeing what you said about the others compared to me. I think you were trying to be careful about who you were saying bad things about, but you did a sloppy job of that. And the glaring omissions of any ot the important game events was either sloppy, or a careful exercise used to distort your anaylsis -- I don't know which it is, but both of them are scummy.Anata112 wrote:Also in my analysis, I put up a few suspects, and Jitsu, you were one of them. You were the only one that mentioned about impeccable timing of my post and how clearly thought out it was. And now you say it's sloppy and a lazy analysis. So which one is it? And why did it take so long for you to bring up this attack on my post? It was pages ago and since you've been quite active in the forum, why didn't you say this earlier?
Why didn't I say all this earlier? The answer is quite simple. I knew I needed to reread your post, particularly after Mexal's comments in post 183. I thought you were clearly trying to frame me, but he just said your analysis didn't say much -- so something didn't fit. I knew I wanted to read it more carefully later, and so I put it in the back of my mind, because Sudo committed his gaffe of commenting on whether Mexal has a power role or not before I could respond to your post. I called Sudo on that, and I was following up that lead when the opportunity was there.Even during that process, I mentioned in post 200 that I wanted to reread your post and hadn't forgotten. When the lead on Sudo was dry, I finally did my read on your post again and presented my analysis. It never left my mind.
Plenty of other people have commented that I looked like a suspect, and I didn't have a problem any of them when they brought it up. Why? Because in all of those cases, the reasoning was sound and based on fact, or they were gut feelings formed around the logical fallacies or other mistakes I made. Sudo has me as his chief suspect at this point, and even I can admit that at least his theory is based on something that actually happened. Your suspicion on me stands out because it used evidence that was misrepresented, irrelevant, and in some cases, not even there.Anata112 wrote:To me, it sounds like you didn't like me bringing you up as a suspect, and now you're trying to deflect the attention back to me. Does that mean my suspicions are correct?
Given how you don't seem to be addressing any of the relevant points I made about your analysis (other than denying that you defended Sudo and Gunslinger), I think that you are trying to make a desparate attempt to deflect the attention back onme, without having anything very substantive to say. In this post and in #242, I have logically debated your points, and your response has been to point fingers at things that really aren't very relevant.
Do you have anything else to say about the points I made? Because I can't see anything resembling a defense here. I'm happy with my vote on you right now.-
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Jitsu Goon
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In real life, I pretty much agree. In mafia, I don't agree that is always a good idea. A major point of my argument is that she either didn't seem to read very carefully or she did and carefully chose what bits and pieces she commented on. I am trying to figure out what mixture of those two occurred. Explaining to her whatKorlash wrote:Nothing is ever "clearly spelled out" in mafia. I mean with all the suspicion, paranoia, stupidity, and newbiness floating around nothing will always seem the same to everyone. Take the massclaim thing. Sudo clearly spelled out that he felt it to be a bad idea but being asked here it was... Yet a few people took that as some kind of scum trap for power roles or whatever. And this is basically what mafia boils down to, who can explain their point in such a way as to make people understand it the best they can.
I agree with you, to a point. Stating that something is clearly spelled out is always a relative term and is always modified by the fact that anyone can lie at any time for any reason. Plus newbie play and even simple misunderstandings can keep points from being understood. Still though, I am allowed to say that I thought the reasons were pretty clear if I feel that way. If you or someone else disagrees with that, then rebut my statement and we can discuss it. Just because it is a strong assertion doesn't mean it isn't true. And I do feel that the other players in the game understood at least the basic reasons behind the votes I mentioned, based on the comments that were made. And if you always shy away from strong language in your posts, it's much harder to pressure someone. At the moment, my vote is on her because I want to apply some pressure to her. I am always willing to consider any new information that comes up, but I haven't heard anything yet that makes me want to change my vote.
Korlash wrote:So, how about, instead of telling her how obvious they are, you explain it to her so that she does understand them. You cannot criticize people for not understanding something unless you have tried to explain it to them.Ithink the reasons for the votes are would rob me of any information I could get from her responses to my criticism. Anything she says, doesn't say, or even how she reacts to me questions/commentary is valuable information to this point.
If I felt she was a townie that didn't understand, I might be more inclined to explain, in order to help her. But I see her as potential scum, so I really don't feel I should let her off the hook that easily. If she still doesn't understand the reasons even after a more careful reread, she can say so, and I can decide what I want to say then. But even that tells me something. If I tell her what I think the answers are before she responds, any information I get from her is irrevocably tainted, and therefore, I cannot get a true read on it.
Maybe an analogy would be useful. Do you know the game show "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?" If you don't, it is a show where contestants try to answer multiple choice trivia questions to win money. Once during the game, the contestant can poll the audience to get their opinion on the answer for one question. All the audience members vote on what they think the answer is, and the contestant is shown the percentage of audience members that voted for each answer. If I think the correct answer is C, it makes a big difference whether or not I tell the audience that before I poll them. If I tell them I think it's C, more audience members are likely to vote C than before, especially if they are not sure themselves. Thus, I've possibly tainted the results. If I don't state my thoughts first, then I get a truer read on what the audience really thinks. Do you see my point?[/u]-
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Jitsu Goon
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Jitsu Goon
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Be careful. Giving a vote without a detailed reason can indeed be a scumtell, but an insincere attempt to agree by merely adding useless fluff can be too. It's wise to consider all the prevailing factors about the vote (such as the current context of the game, voting histories, the voting player's style, etc.) to determine whether the vote is good or suspect.Korlash wrote: With those three points I feel your vote had a good chance of gaining info, while Mexal's vote did not add anything to the discussion.
Giving a lot of weight to how good (or how long) the stated reason for the vote was and not considering the other factors can lead to incorrect conclusions. I'm not saying you did this, I'm just trying to point out something that may benefit the other players.-
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Jitsu Goon
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That is true. And yes, I have considered that case. I don't like to hide info from the town unless I think I can learn something by doing so. Based on if/how she responds to our prods for information, I will be trying to gauge whether what you say above is happening or not.Korlash wrote:But the downside of that is hiding info from a towny may get them confused, scared, or panicky and thus lead to false info on them. Which could spiral down into a very strong case against them that gets them lynched.
Frankly, in this case, I really do not think that it is a big secret, because I feel the reasons for the votes were not that difficult to understand. Plus, this point (not understanding the reasons behind the votes) is only a small part of my overall criticism against her, so I don't think hiding that little piece of info is likely to lead to a false conclusion on its own.-
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I think it totally depends on the situation. If I think I have a good read on a player, understand their motives, and do not have any questions about their vote, I may not require anything more than an "I agree" reason. In this situation, I thought I understood what Mexal means, because he does call me on it if he disagrees. If you really do agree with EVERYTHING the previous voter said, there may really not be anything else that needs to be added. But if I don't have a good read on a player and I want information to understand their motives better, I will ask, just as you did. I didn't think you asking him for a clarification was a bad idea at all. You got him to state his opinion more explicitly and got him to commit to specifically agreeing with everything.Korlash wrote:Quick question, Do you agree that the mere statement "I agree with what he said." is all the reason and explanation a vote needs?
None of the three. Mexal certainly doesn't need me to defend him, as he is doing just fine for himself. I think Jer did add a few useful things. And I don't think your reasoning is useless either. I agree with you asking for a clarification.Korlash wrote:I don't see how that fits here. Not giving a reason just because you do not want to be adding useless fluff clearly means you do not think your reasons are good. So I cannot see why your bringing this up. is it to try and defend Mexal? Or is it to say Jer's reasonings were useless fluff? Or was it to say my reasonings were useless?
I was just trying to point out that the presence or absence of a well-explained reason isn't necessarily telling by itself. I've seen many cases where "I agree" votes were cast by honest townies, and many cases where they were cast by lying scum. I'm trying to point out to my fellow newbies that I think it's best to step back and see the whole picture for each vote,includingthe reason. If you can't get a feel for the voter's motives for doing so, you should ask them.
Adding useless fluff can be bad for several reasons: (1) It makes your true points harder to find and dilutes your arguments; (2) It can give others a false impression that you don't really have anything useful to say; and (3) in a game where your enemies are trying to twist and exaggerate every word you say, sometimes saying too much gives them more openings to attack you. In a lot of my posts, I find the need to trim out fluff before I post. A tighter, more focused post is a lot more effective than a rambling fluffy one, but you have to include enough information to make your points. It's a fine line to walk. I personally like to try to explain my votes well, but I know not everyone plays like that.-
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They are also my top three at the moment. I do feel that the discussion is starting to stagnate, but I there are a few loose ends that I'd like to see get wrapped up. I would prefer to wait a day or so of real time to see if Anata responds, since she said she was gone for the weekend. I really want to give her a final chance to defend herself, now that a lot of people besides me have asked for it. Maybe we can get some commentary from her and the others that have been gone over the weekend. Also, given that Jayalay has requested replacement, I'd like to give her replacement a chance to come in, get caught up, and weigh in.Mexal wrote:Honestly, at this time, I'd lynch Miztef, Anata or Gunslinger. I think we should lynch one of them then re-evaluate where we stand tomorrow.
While we are waiting, Mexal, if nothing else changes, who do you think is the play, and why?-
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I need to carefully reread the last few posts before I comment further, but I want to cite my statement I made earlier.
As for where Anata put me in her top two, she never explicitly said ther her top X suspects were person 1, person 2, ...., but at the very end of post 153, she says:
[bolding mine, for emphasis]After this horribly long post, I still cannot say for sure who I think is scummy or not. However, I’m still keeping an eye of Miztef,and now on jitsu as well, based on my analysis.
Gien how little else she's posted, and seeing how Miztef and I are the only people she's mentioned she was suspicious of after the random voting stage, this seems to put Miztef and I in her top two list of suspicious characters by default. At the very, very least, she has singled out Miztef and me above all others. And here she does cite her "analysis" (that is, post 153) as her reason for this.-
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Yes, but I want to reread first.curiouskarmadog wrote: OK , I can see how you might think that...
any comments on the rest of my post? Mexal's? Miz's?
There are a lot of points in my initial read that I think I want to comment on, but the last few several posts especially had a lot of comments and talking points in them. Given that people are starting to talk about who is a good lynch, the stakes have gotten higher, so I want to take extra time to consider what was said.-
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