Succession Mafia II: OVER!
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That's similar to what I was thinking. I was going to suggest a No Lynch if we had a good reason to believe we were all town.
At first I was wondering if they would recruit their entire team during pregame, but I looked at the endgame of Succession 1, and they were recruiting during the game there.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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I don't trust Albert and Kinetic saying they've already picked.Yosarian2 wrote:Yosarian2 wrote:Really? Huh. If that's true, then we should all stop speculating until day 1 is started, or we might just make it easier for them.
It might work differently in this game. We might have to lynch/kill X players from a given cult to eliminate them, regardless of their total number.Yosarian2 wrote:Flameaxe wrote: I'd assume with two lynch immune stumps they get some sort of recruit...Otherwise we would be doing absolutely nothing day one.
Well, with the "white flag" rule Flay linked to, if the stump is the only member of his group, the group loses, so I think there has to be at least one extra member of each cult during day 1.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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dry-fit: I've seen him play as scum, and although we lynched him, he played well. Also, I haven't seen him around much, so I'd say he's low profile. He's the person I would have picked, but kinetic and Albert might not have the same opinion.Magister Ludi wrote:To get a general feel of the game, I'm in favor of each player proclaiming who THEY would of picked should they of been a N0 cult recruiter. It will give a general feeling of the make-up of the mind.
porochaz: I get the impression that he's good, but he doesn't have the profile of Yos2.
Maybe Springlullaby. I don't know how kinetic or Albert think of her.
I was going to vote Porochaz, who is actively lurking, but I don't like posts 126-127 by Spring. Some of it is gut; also, I don't see how Ludi's lists could have been made with a scum motive.
VOTE: Spring
I don't think Yos2 would be recruited immediately. Maybe later if he isn't killed. So we should lynch him on D3 or D4 (have some wifom, recruiters)
Magister Ludi wrote:Could eliminate all players within a year of joining. Too much of a wild card.
I disagree. Someone can make a name for themself pretty quickly. Also, if someone is an alt, kinetic (or Albert) may know about it. Especially kinetic because as a list mod, it's occasionally his job to be aware of alts. Maybe set aside "known newbies". (Though I note it's self-serving for you to suggest this.)
I think you or your recruits have night kills that you can use to take care of people you fail to recruit. (guessing based on Succession 1)Unrecruitables HAVE to play for the town WC no matter what, but if they are ever outed, its also in the town's best interest to lynch them for fear they are one of the other's cults. And it makes it in the cult's best interest to out such a player to get them lynched, its a plus no matter if its a town PR or the other cult's choice.
I won't necessarily lynch targets by your request because you may be lying.
@DGb: I'm fine with being on your short list for day 1, but I have town reads on some of the others. And I'd rather not see Ludi, in particular, pushed too hard, because he's a newbie and may look scummy even as a townie if he's pressured.
To those saying I'd make a good pick, I'm flattered, but I wasn't chosen. I don't know kinetic at all, and the one time Albert and I played together, I wasn't doing well as mafia. I can provide a link to the game and the daytalk QT if requested.
Because they have the same role?DrippingGoofball wrote:How would you know he's a VT unless you're the other recruitee or something? How do you know?
But more importantly, how would kinetic and Albert know?
Cobb wrote:Okay, I think Yosarian might be the other recruit.
Cobb wrote:theotherrecruit.
Easy mode on?
UNVOTE: Spring
VOTE: Cobblerfone
Ludi seems town. A little wordy, but that's just posting style. He's looking for recruits, and my gut says it's genuine.
Chrono is playing about 30 times better than I've seen him play before. I'm not sure how he ended up on the lists.
I was thinking that ooba was town, but I can't remember why.
DGb, I want to believe you are town, but asking us to only focus on a few people until day 3 would just help you too much under white flag rules if you're scum.
I have no opinion on xvart yet.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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xvart wrote:I can see this as legitimate since Cobb had not said definitively that the person he was voting (populartajo) was a recruit.
I was going to wait and see what he said about that, but that's what I was thinking. If he meant that he already knew who some first recruit was, and Yos was the second, why wasn't he voting for the first? Or if it was populartajo, he doesn't seem to be playing that way.
Only problem is, it's such an enormous slip that it feels too easy and obvious.
Also, Cobblerfone, what did you mean by "role-doctor"?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Cobblerfone wrote:Herodotus wrote:Easy mode on?
What are you going on about? Two recruiters. IF xvart is one, Yosarian is the speculated other. Though, I guess we shouldn't assume that there's only two. It would be rather odd for there to be only one recruit per team in N0 I think.
Herodotus wrote:Also, Cobblerfone, what did you mean by "role-doctor"?
Our proffessions are not our roles. So just because Tajo is a "Proffession-Doctor" doesn't mean he's a "Role-Doctor". That's what I meant. My vote's on Tajo because of something in an ongoing game that he's dead in. I would switch to xvart, but I'm waiting for RaudhrGarm.
To say that there is someone you think might be the other recruit implies that the first recruit is given knowledge, at least to you.
Let me use an example. Suppose we are all standing in a room with 25 chairs. Everyone has an assigned seat, though the assignments aren't public. Two of those chairs are blue, and the other 23 are brown. Someone says "Yosarian2, are you the other person whose seat is blue?" You'd expect the person saying that either is one of the two people whose chairs are blue, or has already identified one person who definitely has a blue seat. Otherwise, they would phrase it as "Yosarian2, are you one of the people whose seat is blue?"
You don't seem like you had already identified someone as a recruit, since you were voting populartajo for mystery reasons. You hadn't said much about xvart, and weren't voting him.
Now that you've indicated you were suspicious of xvart, and just not voting, I'm going to move on. That slip looked too obvious to be a genuine scumslip, though IGMEOY for Day 1.
UNVOTE: Cobbler; VOTE: SpringJust because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Are we not all in agreement that the mafia groups probably each have one recruit?xvart wrote:Nope. Not buying it. The logic/priority list here is flawed because it wouldn't be odd for there to only be one recruit D1; plus, even if there was, you said "the other recruit" meaning one additional, which contradicts your statement about there being more than one recruit per team; and, what does RaudhrGarm saying I'm a VT have to do with populartajo and why are you waiting on him to allegedly move your vote to me?
It's too early to say anyone is "lurking", but if porochaz continues the pattern of saying "we should scumhunt as normal" and "lol, DGb fakeclaims", without scumhunting, he'll win my vote soon.Hero 173: Lets not start the active lurking reasoning less than 24 hours into the game, it just makes you sound silly.
@Cobblerfone: PR's are not an indication of alignment in this game.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Note: Albert and/or kinetic may have decided to choose at random, so let's keep our elimination of candidates guarded. Ludi as an alt? Possibly.Zdenek wrote:I know it's been said before, but simply to minimize risk, I don't think that anyone (who isn't an alt) with a recent join date is a reasonable candidate to have been recruited last night. So unless cobbler is an alt, I would not support his lynch today. Also, at the risk of being shown to be an idiot, I think that Magister Ludi is an alt.
I believe her original vote for him had to do with a timestamp, and this turned into her case, so I believe xvart believes this, whether he's scum or town.Zdenek wrote:Xvart wrote:
The irony, so-to-speak, of my post is that DGBs case on me is based on a timestamp.
I don't believe that xvart actually believes this.
Zdenek wrote:Herodotus, could you explain how this
Herodotus wrote:
I'd rather not see Ludi, in particular, pushed too hard, because he's a newbie and may look scummy even as a townie if he's pressured.
is compatible with your earlier vote on Cobblerfone?
I don't see any incompatibility. I would not have wanted any pressure on Cobblerfone if I thought he was town, either. But Cobbler appeared to basically claim scum, and without any pressure.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Wut what? I already explained how Cobbler's comment resembled a scumslip.
I don't see any credible reason to think Ludi is scum.
He's acted in a protown way by trying to take advantage of the town's setup knowledge in looking for scum. Hunting for recruits -- that's the point of the game for town...? Outguessing Albert and Kinetic may be hard or even lead to inaccurate results, but it's a valid avenue of approach.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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springlullaby wrote:Herodotus, are you voting me because I'm voting Ludi and "you wouldn't want him pressured too hard". If so, why me?
As for Ludi's list, I think it's obvious that telling scum what you think they are thinking while your goal is to outguess them is not very wise.
1) I voted you because you were on my list of people I might choose as a first recruit, and you were the first to attack someone I thought was town.
2) I can accept that as your point of view even though I disagree, but there's a big difference between a townie making an unwise decision and a scum. Ludi saying who he would have made a first recruit or encouraging others to do the same gives scum no advantage, because they can't change their minds. It may influence their decision of whom they will recruit in the future, but any scumhunting we do will have that effect, and we should be resetting our reads at the beginning of each day regardless.
What don't you like, Nobody?
Not sure what I think of the balance of white flag here. We could lynch scum every day and still lose, if they successfully recruit each night and don't get vigged.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Yosarian2 wrote:My vote on him really has nothing to do with DGB's vote.
Your reasons are similar though. You both used a profile of your expectations of who should be recruited pregame.
Battousai wrote:Herodotus wrote:Wut what? I already explained how Cobbler's comment resembled a scumslip.
That's not the problem that I saw. I want to know why you think we should treat a noobie with kid gloves. I want to know why I shouldn't press on someone I find to be scummy, because he may make a scumslip (and be town).
If you want to do it, you don't need my permission. But newbie townies who are under pressure often start to look like scum - at least in the judgement of the majority. Cite: personal observation of games I've played in.
Porochaz wrote:Didn't we discuss this already? Why are you wasting time?
My reaction exactly.
@Albert: Do you have daytalk? Assuming things are symmetric between you and Kinetic, I may have a lead, but I'd rather not elaborate until you've answered.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Herodotus wrote:@Albert: Do you have daytalk? Assuming things are symmetric between you and Kinetic, I may have a lead, but I'd rather not elaborate until you've answered.
I suppose kinetic can try answering too, but I'm not going to be overly trusting, obviously.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Couldn't you say that about anyone who is lynched -- that they wouldn't have been chosen because they were possibly going to get lynched?Magister Ludi wrote:One, if xvart is being run up to a lynch today, isn't that exactly the sort of player they would avoid? How come no one mentioned this.
Porochaz and I just talked about that.Magister Ludi wrote:Also, Is it even possible to beat the cult? If we wipe out one cult somehow today, the other will always be recruiting even as we lynch their members, always staying one member ahead of an ability we have to stop them.
I guess it's safe to assume that the town has reasonable winning chances, even if it might not be clear how that works mathematically. It might be best not to discuss why if it's because of PR's. It's also possible that the cults have a limited number of recruitment shots.
That's worth repeating, I think, to motivate the town.
It's possible that the cults have a limited number of recruitment shots. If so, very few of us will be recruited, so no one should let their town play suffer in the hope that they'll be recruited later.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Magister Ludi wrote:Who would you have picked, Herodotus?(Sorry. I tried to hold back my inner grammar nazi, but failed.)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p3070234Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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bvoigt wrote:Herodotus wrote:Herodotus wrote:@Albert: Do you have daytalk? Assuming things are symmetric between you and Kinetic, I may have a lead, but I'd rather not elaborate until you've answered.
I suppose kinetic can try answering too, but I'm not going to be overly trusting, obviously.
Are you saying you trust Albert more than Kinetic? If so, why?
Because I said that I had a reason to suspect that I knew whom kinetic had recruited, depending on the answer to my question; so kinetic theoretically has a reason not to want to reveal that information. (But in fact I was lying, it's Albert's recruit I had a lead on. I reversed it because I thought Albert was more likely to answer, as kinetic has been guarded.) I'll elaborate on my suspicion in the near future.
Also, I see no need for you to echo what I said, then Yos repeated, about Ludi's logic re: the xvart wagon.
Regarding cobbler's claim, I remember seeing it as him responding to the issue of being sure that xvart was town because cobbler was guessing xvart might be unrecruitable because they had the same role name. So I don't think much of the attacks on him over a scum-serving claim. The seed for his claiming was planted before the first votes on him. So if that was a scumplot, it was absurdly subtle.
springlullaby wrote:What, ABR, are you saying that Tanarin was your recruit?
He's saying that. But he's just messing with us because he knows DGb is faking the daykill ability.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Magister Ludi wrote:Maybe I underestimate peoples motivations here. DGB, is your preferred play to survive, get hopefully recruited by the CR's, and win with that particular cult? Because Its like getting blood from a stone from you and several other players.
I think you're underestimating how utterly pointless your questions appear to some of us. Even after I answered your question, you complained that I named more than one person.
And why is it that you don't seem to think that populartajo, Raudhr, dry-fit, bunnylover, etc. aren't trying to pass time until they're recruited?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Flameaxe wrote:If he's a good a chance as any, why vote him over any? Any has been pretty scummy.
He has been lurking hard, but I don't think we're allowed to lynch the backup mod.
How do you know that the recruiter who didn't recruit you succeeded?Battousai wrote:Post 344- No one cares what would have happened if one of the recruitments failed N0. It didn't happen, and it will have no impact later on.
Yos2, why not briefly state the difference between the earlier question and your recent one?
@Mod: could we have prods for everyone eligible(as opposed to just populartajo)Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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@Flameaxe:
If finding the recruitee was only a matter of outguessing the CR's, then we'd get stuck in the circular reasoning and couldn't conclude anything. But we could also find the recruitees if they "make a mistake" in the sense of accidentally revealing themself as scum. Players who are new or who are lynched often are more likely to make a mistake. The CR's don't need or want to take that risk. Also, a newer player would not be able to help the CR as much in analyzing PR's and future recruitment choices. So unless we find something seriously scummy from them (including lurking), it's reasonable to count the players kinetic and Albert don't expect to play well as less suspect than those with experience. On day 1, that is. Disregard this analysis for future days.
On the other hand, it's also possible that one or both of them just used some random method to choose a name. I think if I were a CR, I'd use a weighted random selection.
Um, what?Spring wrote:Cobbler, what do you think of that? Wanna vote yourself to prove that you aren't scum?
@Populartajo:
Read the game. [Redacted], and [redacted].
Do you disagree with my point that we shouldn't rule anyone out as guaranteed not to have been selected?
@Yos2:
Why did Cobbler claim?
:sigh:Cobb wrote:Let me last at least one night. If I'm scum the other scum will kill me anyway. From what I understand if the recruiters try to recruit an unrecruitable or another scum, the recruitment becomes a kill.
Yes, I'm sure they will want to waste their recruit ability on someone they know they can't recruit.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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springlullaby wrote:ThAdmiral wrote:
springlullaby wrote:I'm thinking yes. I'm thinking there might be other scum than cult too. But maybe I'm wrong.
But surely they couldn't be recruitable which would cause problems.
You've got a point, the two scenarios doesn't match. And I've done the meta on him, it's possible the whole thing was just newbie stuff. Still, I'm mad at him.
Could you elaborate on the "mad at him" issue here?
ooba wrote:What do you think about the fact that it might be their pregame plan if any of the other teamsters get's wagoned?
I suppose that can't be ruled out, but for now I'm on Cobbler's side.
We haven't heard from nobody in far too long. I'm still waiting for an answer to a question I didn't ask anybody.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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springlullaby wrote:Herodotus, what do you want me to elaborate on? I'm thinking now that Cobbler may lean more toward scummy town rather than scum. Because it does make more sense to read him as a 'retard'.
I still don't see the xvart wagon. I would like Ludi to answer my posts adressed to him.
I asked you to elaborate because I wanted to understand whether you had a town or a scum read on him. It looked much more like a town read.
You've kept your vote on him, apparently because you're mad and not because you think he's scum.
@Battousai:
It seems to me that Ludi is one of those playing toward the town win condition, and not playing against it hoping to be recruited. (Whether the recruitees would play similarly to someone hoping to be recruited is questionable, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.)
FoS: SeraphimJust because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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The point of finding people who are acting scummy is to find the scum, and it works because scum are more likely to act scummy.
The point of trying to outguess the CR's is to find the scum, and it might work because the CR's are rational humans.
It wouldn't have a high success rate on its own, because at best we could narrow the likely recruits to maybe 8-10, but it's still a way of looking for scum.
It could be done by the scum in a fake way; the mafia might put out the idea that someone they want to mislynch would have been recruited. But the same can be said for typical scumhunting as well; scum can make a case on a townie.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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populartajo wrote:populartajo wrote:Herodotus wrote:And I'd rather not see Ludi, in particular, pushed too hard, because he's a newbie and may look scummy even as a townie if he's pressured.
Herodotus wrote:Cobb wrote:Okay, I think Yosarian might be the other recruit.
Cobb wrote:theotherrecruit.
Easy mode on?
UNVOTE: Spring
VOTE: Cobblerfone
yeah, easy mode on.
Vote: Herodotus
everyone, thoughts of this
@Cobbler: There's nothing to apologize for in post 494, except maybe that you didn't vote in it.
Some of what Kinetic said about DGb is true, but I think he threw in the part about useful posts being bad in order to demoralize. After two games with her, I'd like to think that was false.
It's not directly anti-town, but it does look like active lurking.Yosarian2 wrote:I don't get at all how you can vote me for that. It's not at all anti-town, and while it's not all that likely to get us information, it's worth a shot, and it's at least entertaining to try.
@xvart: Your opinions of Spring, Cobbler, and Yos2, please?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Nobody Special wrote:Herodotus wrote:I'd rather not see Ludi, in particular, pushed too hard, because he's a newbie and may look scummy even as a townie if he's pressured.
I don't like this. Not at all.
In other news, I'm fairly happy with the xvart case. If he starts acting less scummy and more townish, I'd be willing to flip to Yos.
VOTE: xvart
DGB: Hypothetically, if xvart were already dead, who would you vote for now? (I have my reasons for asking this. Trust me here.)
Herodotus wrote:What don't you like, Nobody?
New question: Are you going to flake out?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Battousai wrote:I'll say this one last time.... YOU CAN NOT OUTGUESS THE CR, IT IS CIRCULAR LOGIC. You say they would be more inclined to pick a powerful person who is hard to lynch and will help lead and define their cult. What if they thought you'd think that and went with a newish person or someone who gets lynched early a lot? Then you'd just eliminated the recruits and are now throwing your net on land instead of the small pond.
I still believe that would be an unnecessary risk. I don't know if I didn't explain it well before or you simply disagree, but I'll try once more.
If a CR chooses someone who plays very well as scum, that player has a chance of being able to talk their way out of being lynched, even if they take some attacks for being seen as a likely target.
If a CR chooses someone who doesn't play well as scum, that player may screw up and make a scumslip or be caught by people focusing on behavioural scumhunting.
So my position is still: If a newbie or known low-skilled player ends up being very, very scummy on day 1, then we lynch them, but the bar should be high.
And no one has been scummy enough to hit that bar so far.
Tanarin wrote:Question I have for the people who have played DGB before:
How hard is she to lynch?
DrippingGoofball
Mafia Piñata
Incidentally, I said earlier that she and I have played together twice, but I wasn't counting the game in which she replaced in after I died. I've seen her lynched in 2 of those 3 games, though in the most recent, she was trying to be lynched.
Tanarin wrote:I think ThAdmiral made a damn good point. Whoever is the one recruited would indeed be active, if not MORE active D1, Even if it draws them heat.
Lurking is not a town tell.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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As of the time when you asked, I have found no towntells from you. Not one thing that makes me think you might be town. And you would have been a good recruitment choice.springlullaby wrote:@HerodotusWhy are you still voting me?
But what you said about kinetic/DGb is making me think (though I consider it relevant meta for those unfamiliar with DGb, even while I'm confounded that confirmed scum would be helpful). Do you believe kinetic was trying to avert the xvart wagon in particular?
If Chronopie will be V/LA for multiple weeks, that playerslot needs either a vig or a replacement.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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DrippingGoofball wrote:Pick one.
xvart
Yosarian
Tanain
Seraphim
RaudhGarm
Magister Ludi
Herodotus
bvoigt
Chronopie
xvart is the leading wagon.
NEEDS MORE LULLABIES.
Translation: There's no sensible reason for you to have excluded Springlullaby. Do you have a town read on her? Is it because she has done something in this game that shows she wasn't recruited?
Also, it's pretty clear from my play that I'm town so far. If I get recruited, it will be obvious because I'm terrible as scum. Note to the recruiters: you're best off killing me if you can. If you recruit me, I'll probably be lynched, but if you don't recruit me, I probably won't be .Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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^^ That's no less information than when roles are assigned randomly. Even if you are 100% unwilling to try to outguess the recruiters, that only means you start with no informaiton. But then you have about 25 pages to consider. So it can't be worse than a non-cult game (except for the presumably small number of scum).Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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ooba wrote:@Zenek: Yes, because I think both recruits would have attacked Yos at least once in the day. And no, I don't think he's recruited.
Bunnylover wrote:I don't like how he tried to take a early control of the game. He tried to make us focus on certain players instead of letting everyone put in their info.
I believe DGb prefers to be referred to with feminine pronouns.
What? You weren't talking about DGb? But you just described her playstyle, and no one else's...Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Cobblerfone wrote:ALRIGHT. SERAPHIM WAS ONLINE. I SAW HIM. HE HAS RECENTLY POSTED IN OTHER GAMES.
A lot, in fact. He has many posts since his last one here, spread throughout the week. But this may only be a sign that he forgot about the game.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Nobody Special wrote:And so, because you, as one lone player, have decided unilaterally that he isn't scum, we don't get to see his flip.
Thanks, ever so.
FoS: Batt
P-Edit:
Why the FoS? "an unknown thing" =/= "a scummy thing".
Not liking bvoit's request for flavour, but it looks like one of those things that is slightly more likely to be townie anti-town play than scum anti-town play.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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ʎ's setup speculation doesn't seem to go anywhere. What I think happened is that Kin and Albert each had to send the mod three names, the mod removed any unrecruitables, then randomly chose from the remaining names. Or even more likely, the mod didn't assign roles (like unrecruitable) until after resolving recruitment (and again, they each had to send in three names and one of the three was randomly chosen).
Edit: what ooba said.
Or maybe they each picked up a total of two recruits, and now can only recruit every other night.
But I also think we don't know and won't know soon.
ʎ's contributions don't impress me, but Cecily doesn't seem like a big recruitment target. I've never done this before, but I'll be skimming her posts today (which may antagonize her further, but I'm okay with that) unless she becomes scummy enough to lynch.
@Seraphim: Congratulations.
Any estimate of when you will catch up?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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UNVOTE: Springlullaby VOTE: Chronopie
He'd be a decent choice for Kinetic if Kinetic wasn't inclined to do a thorough meta of many people. Hasn't said much, and is now joining the xvart wagon while avoiding responsibility for it.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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I'm not sure my opinions really fit with the 3 candidates survey, but:
Spring
Chronopie
Yos2
in no particular order, with:
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
Redacted
behind them, in that order. Edit: that's probably too many names to list without helping the CR's.
Some absurd overreactions to an irrelevant comment back there.
If you care about someone making incorrect assumptions about you, you should stay as far away from the internet as you can get. Or do the opposite: link your account to your video blog, biography, etc.
ooba wrote:Kinetic's bringing this up cause his recruit is getting some heat over the last few pages. Combine that with the fact that he tried to disparage my "I've found scum" post even before I posted (and after I'd said I'll be taking a look at Magister and tajo), I'm guessing tajo is Kinetic's recruit ..
Chronopie is a good fit for the first supposition. I had just placed a third vote, and there were two non-Chronopie-voters who had just named him among their top three.
Bunnylover wrote:Do you understand why this is scummy :O?
Lets lynch the lurkers, because the cult recuriters will go after someone who actually has a chance to be lynched and leave alive the people who contribute who probably are recruited and therefore has a higher chance of been scum.
If this wasn't a cult game, your thinking would be correct. Because this is a cult game, your thinking is wrong.
Cult plays differently from scum.
I don't understand you at all.
DrippingGoofball wrote:Who would recruit Chronopie? Even for WIFOM reasons?
Someone who hasn't played with him, but saw that he has a scummy for his play as mafia (even if it's a team award). Especially if the recruiters sent three names, as ooba and I thought might be likely.
@Chronopie, Albert, and Kinetic: Has either CR played with Chronopie before? If so, link to game(s) please?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Bunnylover wrote:trying to scum hunt isn't how you cult hunt.
Just because there are differences doesn't mean that doing something scummy is no longer a scumtell. And I don't see how it makes NS scummier.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Someone you expect will survive. They can't easily tell who will in the future be a town read. To some extent they can't even reliably predict who will lurk.
And I'd rather see those who are contributing live, in general. Lynching lurkers means you're more likely to lynch scum, and it means that on later days, the survivors will be easier to read because they participated.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Yosarian2 wrote:Flameaxe wrote:
Re Chrono: Chrono can easily be seen as a probable recruit, as someone who was recruited for a good majority of S1. It wouldn't surprise me at least one recruit is a returning player.
Is that really your whole case against Chrono?
I understand that you disagree? Do you find him likely town?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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populartajo wrote:I understand that you think Chrono was recruited?
No, I don't. He's pretty null for me, in fact. I voted him mostly because I wanted to see another wagon.
UNVOTE: Chronopie pending a case for or against him, though his lynch would be tolerable. He certainly hasn't done anything helpful.
I retract my list of 3.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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xvart wrote:Chronopie, 116 wrote:then ofc we have the additional layer of wifom in whether they're saying that in order to distance/buddy in order to get me lynched, thus not one of their own teams, thus better for them.
It is also interesting to note that Chronopie includes Kinetic in his WIFOM argument as being identified as a recruit whenKinetic had said nothing about Chronopie, so his inclusion of himself into Kinetic's alleged WIFOM is highly suspect.
Bolded is inaccurate...
Kinetic wrote:I'm going to go with:
Fritz
DGB
and either Chronpie or Yos, leaning toward Yos right now
xvart wrote:Furthermore, when Kinetic started talking about how great it was that the town was wasting time with ThAdmiral's list function is precisely the point in time when Chronopie was getting a fair number of nods towards a likely recruit target. As I said before, there is no reason Kinetic would say something like this because if the town was legitimately wasting time why should he care unless his recruit was looking like a prime target for lynch.
You're not giving kinetic much credit for subtlety or ability to deceive.
populartajo wrote:who wants to vote to see ANOTHER WAGON?
I did.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Either arbitrary or self-serving.Porochaz wrote:Woah there, that seems arbitrary. I didn't list mine in order of preference and if I did it wouldn't be a simple 3/2/1 exercise anyway.
I'm not looking for recruiters because they are listed in the first post. The rest of your question is loaded rhetoric.populartajo wrote:Why arent you looking for RECRUITERS
Thad
Spring
Seraphim
again in no particular order.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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@Tajo:
He hasn't done much hunting, but has kept up with avoiding prods.
He sheeped with the xvart wagon and has xvart as his top candidate for lynch, but has made almost no public evaluation of xvart.
He asked Albert a joke question and complained when he ignored it (quoted for reference below. Compare: your accusation toward Yos2.
As you quoted me saying, he's operating the list in a self-serving way.
ThAdmiral wrote:ThAdmiral wrote:Albert B. Rampage wrote:So....anyone looking for a job?
Doing what?
And what's the hourly rate?
You never answered this...Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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VOTE: Yosarian2
I would switch to xvart to avoid a no lynch.
Main reasons:
He'd be in the top half of candidates for recruitment, and I could see the recruiters expecting him to be able to deflect the "good candidate" argument enough to survive the WIFOM battle.
Sheeping attacks on xvart, Cobbler, and Ludi.
The attack on Cobbler is particularly suspicious because Cobbler claims to be a town PR that cult can't recruit to serve their purposes. It's a possible fakeclaim, but I don't think so.
Comes off scummier than Ludi in their interactions with each other.
Overall, I think he's playing toward the scum win condition. I'm don't know whether he's in a scum faction yet, or is counting on being recruited into one later. But I simply can't tell right now who has been recruited.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Here is how I see your xvart vote:Yosarian2 wrote:Herodotus wrote:Sheeping attacks on xvart, Cobbler, and Ludi.
Wrong on all three counts. None of those were "sheeping", unless "sheeping" means "any time anyone attacks anyone that anyone else has ever attacked".
Yos: The scum will probably recruit someone of the following description: (general qualifications that about 1/3 of the playerlist meets)
DGb: Yes, and specifically, they chose xvart!
Others: I agree, vote: xvart. (discuss, discuss)
Yos: Yeah, I was thinking of xvart before; vote: xvart. (ignore xvart almost entirely, but park vote)
With regard to cobbler and Ludi, they were both looking town (to me), but had wagons on them, when you started finding them scummy.
These were the three earliest viable wagons, and you supported all of them. That can be explained either by you legitimately considering them the three scummiest players, or by you being scum. The first explanation requires a coincidence.
Battousai also supported all of them at some point IIRC, but there is other evidence that he is not cult-recruited so far.
I believe I asked you long ago something like "what led Cobbler to claim?"Yosarian2 wrote:The attack on Cobbler is particularly suspicious because Cobbler claims to be a town PR that cult can't recruit to serve their purposes.
Yes, it's a completely unconfirmable claim that town are very reluctant to lynch. That's why it's a great scum claim.
That being said, you'll notice I never actually voted him at any point today, because I'm uncomfortable with the risk that he might be telling the truth.
Yes, you haven't moved your vote once today. That means either that you're town and very confident about xvart being scum, or you're scum. But if you're town and confident that xvart is scum, why did you say so little about him and ask him no questions? I just ISO'ed you and searched for "xvart". You have said nothing about what makes you think he's scum other than his being a desirable recruitment candidate. I just checked again. Nothing, other than one point when you quoted a paragraph from Battousai and said you agreed, comes close to discussing xvart's play in this game.
You should ISO Yos2 and search for xvart, like I did.Flameaxe wrote:On another, related, note: How moronic is this game coming to if we are using the same logic as the RVS two days before deadline? "I'm guessing XXXXXX would be a good recruit based on nothing in the 50 fucking pages of thread but pure speculation" shouldn't be a serious wagon this late into the day.
Not on day one of this game from someone who is likely to be lynched. I think it's null.Katsuki wrote:Come to think of it, a vig list is extremely anti-town.
This is obviously silly faillogic. I assume it's code for "gut or meta".Andrius wrote:NS is town (because I am town and I don't think we've ever been opposite alignments before).
xvart is right that the wagon on him is questionable; it's also full of parked votes and little argument after the first few RL days, which, on day one, are characteristic of a group that isn't scumhunting. BUT, assuming there are no teams of scum, I'm not sure this is much of a defense per se.
If you had been working all along like you have recently, the wagon on you may have gone away...
Battousai wrote:The cult may be able to use their powers on the building and not just a player.
Was thinking the same. If they can mass-kill or mass-recruit based on buildings, then planned meetups are super dangerous.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Flameaxe wrote:You should ISO Yos2 and search for xvart, like I did.
Which doesn't show anything damning against Yos that couldn't be damning for about 5 other people. Your point?xvart wrote:Herodotus, 1209 wrote:You have said nothing about what makes you think he's scum other than his being a desirable recruitment candidate. I just checked again. Nothing, other than one point when you quoted a paragraph from Battousai and said you agreed, comes close to discussing xvart's play in this game.
This is the predominate trend. You could ISO anyone and pretty much get the same result.
I hadn't noticed that. I did notice that there has been a lot of sheeping, and figured that was originally part of the trend that many people are playing to potential future win conditions and recently part of the trend of compromising for realistic lynches.
I like my vote better than I like either of your votes right now.
@Andrius: The second part of what you quoted was about xvart.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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DrippingGoofball wrote:Herodotus wrote:
Not on day one of this game from someone who is likely to be lynched. I think it's null.Katsuki wrote:Come to think of it, a vig list is extremely anti-town.
It is. It is quite scummy. Think about it.
I can see how it would be useful to him as scum in the scenario that he wasn't under heavy suspicion and wasn't the lead wagon. But if he is lynched and his recruiter is removed from the game due to the white flag rule, a vig list isn't going to give him a new chance to win. Or even if his group stays in (either because he evades being lynched or because he isn't the only member) the list may be useful for connections or ignored by the vigs. I think it will only be taken seriously if xvart is lynched and flips town.
What do you think of the other vig lists that have been made previously?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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populartajo wrote:i just hate that people are playing to future win conditions rather than the current ones
I do too, but I think part of it might be based on what role they enjoy playing more. Those who like to be scum may be more inclined to speculate that they will be recruited and potentially win as cult.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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@Ludi: I was expecting more vig kills because giving town multiple kills per cycle is the most obvious way to avoid the runaway double-recruiting problem. Apparently this setup uses a different method. One possibility is a limited number of recruitment shots, another is even/odd night recruitment.
I agree with most of Yos2's post (preview edit: the one to Battousai). But the only way in which a no-lynch would bedirectlybetter than a lynch for a given scum is if a lynch would put someone from their own team in danger. Assuming they had only one recruit each, that means a no-lynch was only better if the recruit would be lynched or would become a top candidate for vigging/lynching after the lynchee died. And Battousai was in no danger of being lynched and no clear danger of being vigged.
@DGb: Don't forget to dance.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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This may as well be Proto-Uralic. What does "changed it" refer to, and what are you talking about?Kinetic wrote:BTW: DGB's power was to test people who were recruited at a particular location, but it is only useful on even nights. The fact that she "changed it" means she is lying for some reason.
You like DGb for scum largely because Tanarin disagrees?Porochaz wrote:She and going by my self made rule of yesterday of disagreeing with everything you say has made me feel better with my vote.
Do you think they are partners?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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I like your reasoning, but Seraphim was at risk of being vigged.Magister Ludi wrote:Top Recruit Targets for Scum: (people who are good but played a low/very low profile day one)
Seraphim
ooba
^^ I think that's a decent list of select N1 recruitment targets, though the scum may have based their decision on the target's positions or anticipated abilities.
I know there's a difference between "Unrecruitable" and "Has an Action". But I said almost the exact same thing you said, yesterday.Yosarian2 wrote:Not quite, but pro-town people usually want to avoid lynching power roles. Scum would love to, especially since half the power roles in Sucession I were unrecruitable.
The same thing is still possible, it's just that there is additional data.DrippingGoofball wrote:But that stupid ordered list threw everything off, because the scum could have used that information to recruit, tainting any result we would have gotten with a random speedlynch day 1.
The plan as you described it today is ten times more modest than you suggested during day 1 that it would be.
DrippingGoofball wrote:^^^
so town
Because she's disappointed in the number of vig shots, because she's procrastinating, or both?
@Kinetic: I think I figured out your comment about DGb, but clarity may make your case stronger.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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DrippingGoofball wrote:Yosarian2 wrote:Dripping goofball, you know, I specifically asked you to not do your kamikaze thing this game if you are town.
Yeah but I'm a sucker for kamikaze, I think you know that - I'm hugely sleep-deprived and physically exhausted, and the fact that players are even letting Kinetic's poison entering their arguments is making me so angry I'm completely beside myself.
Completely. Beside. Myself.
It's a small number of people, and you don't even seem to be considering that they may be scum.
Think about it this way: there is probably one or more scum voting for you. There could be as many as four scum voting for you.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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If DGb is lynched today, it won't be because townies are too willing to accept what the confirmed scum say.
It will be because her ego is crowding out the scumhunting.
Unless someone has an actual case against her, we should ignore this.
The following six people should each state which of them are most likely to have been recruited:
Bvoight, Fritzler, Flameaxe, Ooba, Porochaz, PopulartajoJust because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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As scum in Pick Your Poison, she did a reaction-gambit-fakeclaim and later intentionally got herself lynched to protect her roleblocker partner, so it's not impossible that she would do what she's doing as scum. But I think she would only do it if in her mind it benefited her team, and I don't see how this would do that. Unless it's just reverse psychology/AtE, but that explanation feels too simplistic.Yosarian2 wrote:General thoughts on DGB:
I am 99% sure she was town yesterday.
She'd be one of the most desirable scum recruitment targets last night, since everyone thought she was town yesterday.
That being said, I have only seen her kamakazi and demand to be lynched as town before. She probably could do it as scum, but I haven't seen it happen.
The sudden change of behavior from yesterday to today (going from being opposed to my lynch at the end of the day yesterday to voting me at the start of the day today, for example) can be a sign of someone who's been recruited; sudden changes in behavior is one of the tells I'm looking for. All in all, though, I think we've got more likely suspects then her.
Both, I suppose.bvoigt wrote:Do you mean from a cult perspective, or based on their play so far today?
@xvart: I think you got the quote tags wrong in 1502. It's confusing. Also, your unvote; was that supposed to be a vote? Who did you think you were voting?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Oh, I'm taking bvoigt off the list; it's down to:
Flameaxe
Fritzler
Ooba
Porochaz
Populartajo
I wasn't aware of Fritzler dying often. Does that mean you're generally killed by the scum? Lynched? Other?Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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Fritzler wrote:Most likely night 1 kill 2006 what up?
Ok, but here it seems that the mafia aren't killing, unless they killed dry-fit, or were both roleblocked. So I don't think that would be a factor when the mafia are deciding whether to recruit you or not.Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone-
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