Stars Aligned - GAME OVER

[Sarag]

/confirm

[Sarag]

Craft Fetish, Stalk and Ward are the actions likely responsible for all noise last night. No cultists can stalk yet.

The cultists already know:
- who they crafted fetishes of
- who, if any, of their craft fetish targets were warded

If we mass noise-claim:
- cultists they will learn who was either stalked, warded from stalk or took the ward action.
- investigators will learn who might need to be protected tonight, and those with medkits can eliminate the need to protect some people who heard no noise.

Could be worth it. It depends on if we think more efficient medkit use is worth exposing those with protective wards.

It might be worth claiming insanities also.

I'd like to hear a bit of discussion of each before we start claiming.

[Sarag]

I've been slacking on this game, I promise a big post tomorrow.

[Sarag]

Hey guys I'm requesting replacement because I can't keep up, very sorry! I just want to post and say I heard no noise last night so there's no need to protect me.

[Sarag]

Actually I just got night killed in my other game, so I can probably pay attention to this one now.

@ mod - please cancel my replacement request

unless you've already found someone.

[Sarag]

Would there have been any action a cultist could have wanted to take other than craft fetish last night? Would there be any point in doing something else?

Yeah they might want wards and medkits to protect eachother from townie vigs and murderers.

In Texas Justice, all members of the town have a 1-shot vig. It has been discovered that there is a breaking strategy in Texas Justice: If a list is made with all of the players in a random order, and everyone vigs the person below them on the list on the same night, then town wins unless the scum happen to be next to each other on the list.

Even if the odds were still good in this game, it wouldn't work because of this:

Chaos

- If

every living player

is Bloody at any time, all Investigators gain the Psychopathy insanity, and the Day phase no longer occurs. For this state to be triggered, there must be at least three more Investigators than Cultists remaining.

DeathNote is confusing the entire town. I think that we should vig him, and worry about someone else.

I don't think Investigators should frivolously use our one kill. While it's true what Drench said about the lynch giving us more information and thus being more valuable from that perspective, night killing is a lot more costly. It means you use two night actions, three if you launder, plus it gives 2 insanities and blood.

I think we should nominate one person each day to Rob Grave the person we lynch so that multiple people aren't doing it and all gaining insanity and so that at least someone does it so that we know the alignment of the players we lynch.

I think this is a good plan. But maybe we should nominate someone who didn't hear noise instead of zwet? The cult could decide to kill the nominated person and make the items less likely to come into play in a useful way.

There may be an issue with grave robbing. We should really nominate ONE person that we are positive is village to do it every night. No sense in dolling out insanities when they are unnecessary, they will begin to pile up and cause the game to become more confusing and harder to keep track of.

Uh no, I disagree with this. If the insanities pile up on one person, we potentially laden an Investigator with a huge number of drawbacks. We could just get the person we nominate each time to take Twitchy which has no drawbacks. Also if we happen to nominate a cultist or murderer then that's fine too, because it interferes with their plans and we lynch them if they don't do it.

I think we should get them to take Twitchy. I don't think any of the insanities can realistically be proven (although I should double check). Someone suggested Avolition, but it requires the person to be on a bandwagon that would otherwise result in a lynch, and even then there's no way to be sure it's the person we think it is.

I'm not really inclined to lynch either Mastin or DeathNote. I'm still catching up and still need to read through and decide who I think is the best lynch today.

[Sarag]

I think vigging both Mastin and DN at this stage would be better then lynching them. Not sure how exactly we should go about doing said vigging as of yet, though, but they should be vigged.

You seriously think we have enough to go on to use up 3 nights worth of actions and gain two insanities and blood? Are you planning on killing one of them yourself?

[Sarag]

In fact,

vote: Drench

. This talk of vigging people who are "distracting" seems pretty anti-town to me.

[Sarag]

How is Drench's plan distracting or anti-town? I actually found Drench's post on vigging Mastin to be quite well reasoned. Why do you think taking advantage of our one-shot vigs would be classified as antitown?

I didn't say it was distracting,

he

said Mastin and DN were distracting and hence worth a night kill. I'm saying it's anit-town because I hardly think we can know enough on day 1 to decide who we should use a costly night kill on.

[Sarag]

@Mod: Datadanne is voting for EriktheRed, not Deathnote.

Noted and fixed, thanks.

[Sarag]

GRAVE ROBBING:

I'd be surprised if zwetschenwasser was killed on night one by scum. He often isn't because he isn't extremely difficult to get a mislynch on in the event that he is town.

But why even take the risk?

I nominate Magua to rob the grave tonight, instead of zwet.

I'm also willing to do it myself if people aren't happy with Magua.

I am just saying we don't need to worry about the assigned robber dieing.

That's true. If the grave robber is killed, we still learn the alignment of the dead player. But we would lose any extra items they picked up from the corpse.

---

MASTIN:

In case I didn't make myself clear earlier, I think Mastin committed a (rather dramatic) null-tell, and has since not given much reason to vote for him. I was curious to see his promised scum-hunting and now that I've seen his most recent post, he actually seems slightly town to me. There are a couple of things in that post I'd like to address though:

*twitch* (I have no intention of dropping this.)

It seems harmless enough for now, since we've seen that it IS fake. If you keep this up tomorrow, I will be suspicious. You could be doing this now to cover for an insanity you plan to pick up in the future.

I don't like Zwets coaching Zyke. Reeks of scum coaching a newbie partner. Take a look at posts like This for proof. There are far more than that as well.

He did the same for DeathNote. Do you think the three of them are likely to be scum together?

Drench defends me, and then gets wagoned. Very scummy. Wagoning someone defending someone you think to be scum(my) instead of the person you think to be scum(my)-->Super scummy.

I agree with the second sentence, except that Exalt was the only one to vote for Drench in that fashion. Kise and I both voted Drench because of his call for a policy vig.

Regarding the people on Mastin's wagon - I don't think we can say much about the people who voted early, before he explained himself (or before arelian mentioned he does this in most games), and who weren't aware of his meta. When I read his first post, my first instinct was "WTF? SCUM!" but then when I heard it's part of his meta, I thought "well obviously a null-tell then". Then I read his explanation and it made sense. I hate the RVS too, so well done. People who have been sticking to him or voting him after that might bear some scrutiny.

Sarag: You don't think that we should NK Mastin. I don't think that Mastin needs to be lynched. People want him dead because they don't like his playstyle, it's a policy lynch. My opinion was that the people who want him dead should vig him themselves, and not waste the town lynch. DeathNote, I'm not sure about.

I don't think he needs to be lynched

OR

NK'd. I agree that we shouldn't go for a policy lynch. I don't think we should policy vig either, and I think encouraging others to do so is scummy. Both the lynch and the vig are valuable, for different reasons. Vigging is also

very costly

, as I have already pointed out. Why should we vig frivolously, and only take the lynch seriously? You also seem to be advocating this, so

FoS: chenhsi

.

---

DRENCH:

The bw on Mastin smells scummy. However, I feel that the people who jumped on the bandwagon 2nd or 3rd weren't as scummy as the people who called it out. I mean, it's a 25 player game.

Scum are not going to quicklynch from L-13 or L-12. I doubt they even have the numbers to even do that.

Maybe I missed something, but what exactly are you talking about when you refer to "the people who called it out"? Who, specifically, are you talking about, and why was calling out the bandwagon scummy in those cases? Because this:

Speaking of the bw, it's not sitting well with me. I saw Mastin committ a null-tell, and I saw 7 or so people jump on it like lightning. I mean, one or two is fine with reason (see above), but when 7 people jump on one person for doing something they do every single game...it looks opportunistic.

Seems like you're calling it out...

---

DEATHNOTE:

DN is town...

I agree. He seems pretty noob-town to me. It's possible it's a cover but I have no particular reason to believe that yet.

---

OTHER STUFF:

BTW if we are worried that Zwet will be killed, then I can res him so that we can be sure he gets the grave robbing done.

Gah! Shut up!!

@ everyone:

Please do NOT announce whether or not you have a resuscitation kit, who you will resuscitate, or even whether you will resuscitate at all. Someone who takes the resuscitate action cannot be resuscitated themselves. So if you've heard noise (I realise DN didn't so it's not too dire) and you announce your plans, the cultists can pick you as a guaranteed kill. It's also bad to advertise that you even have a resuscitate kit - we don't want the scum knowing how many people have them or where they are.

That said, people who heard no noise and have a res kit should definitely use it tonight. Those who DID hear noise, should think carefully about whether they will use it or not (and don't tell us).

---

@ zwet: I'm curious about someting, maybe you can explain. How did you go from this:

NO POLICY LYNCHING

- where you comment on the Mastin bandwagon without giving your own opinion about his scumminess - to this:

Moar mastin votes plz.

and this:

Can we please get back to NOT letting mastin coast for his distracting scumminess?

and yet,

you have never voted for Mastin yourself

?

---

@dramonic:

I think I know what Zyke means. It is highly likely that Mastin or DN are scum, but not both and there really is no way to know which one is right now.

I don't get this at all. Please spell it out for me.

[Sarag]

If the grave robber is killed, we still learn the alignment of the dead player. But we would lose any extra items they picked up from the corpse.

No, the items just go on the new grave that we can then rob.

Sure, but then we just defer the problem. If we continue to do that, we will end up with a worse spread of gear on different Investigators, since having more than one of an item doesn't help.

The difference is that Mastin has not done scummy yet to be lynched, or for me to consider him scum. I am not supporting that we should vig him. I am saying that people who want him dead because they don't like his playstyle should vig him, and not waste a lynch + discussion time about it.

If you don't think there is enough to say he's scum then why would you encourage other people to vig him for playstyle? It is incredibly wasteful to have an investigator use up their kill on someone you don't think it worth it. The investigators are a team - if you are one, you should be encouraging your team mates to make wise choices.

Sarag, what is your opinion on Datadanne?

His posts have been pretty useless so far. Sadly this seems to be consistent with his meta.

Out of curiosity, did you pick my name out of a hat?

I looked at the list of people who had heard no noise and chose someone who seemed active, and looked reasonable enough to be trusted with the task.

I'm not fond of this idea of yours of volunteering someone else to gain insanity.

Hmm yeah I didn't really think of it like that, I guess I wanted to suggest someone else so people wouldn't think I had some reason for wanting to do it myself - but now that I think about it, there's not really any benefit to scum for doing this so it's not an issue. And I DID say I was willing to do it. I stand by that.

What you've managed to do here is get 2 seperate incidents and string them together. Yay for you! The first incident is referring to the ones that went 'OMG2PPLBANDWAGONINGSCUMSCUMSCUM', and the second is, well, me calling out the opportunistic nature of the bandwagon in its later stages.

Um, I still don't understand, so I'll ask again:
- What exactly are you talking about when you refer to "the people who called it out"? Please refer to specific posts.
- Who, specifically (give names), are you talking about?
- And why was calling out the bandwagon scummy in those cases?

[Sarag]

chaos danger

Um...what? Explain.

See this conversation:

In Texas Justice, all members of the town have a 1-shot vig. It has been discovered that there is a breaking strategy in Texas Justice: If a list is made with all of the players in a random order, and everyone vigs the person below them on the list on the same night, then town wins unless the scum happen to be next to each other on the list.

Even if the odds were still good in this game, it wouldn't work because of this:

Chaos

- If

every living player

is Bloody at any time, all Investigators gain the Psychopathy insanity, and the Day phase no longer occurs. For this state to be triggered, there must be at least three more Investigators than Cultists remaining.

[Sarag]

Sarag, I prefer to wait to hammer people.

At the time you were demanding more votes on Mastin, he had 9 votes. It takes 13 to lynch. The most number of votes he has ever had is 10.

Even if you were being cautious, why demand more people vote for him?

And since you haven't yet, could you please explain why you think Mastin is scummy and you want him lynched?

[Sarag]

Before we all jump on the Datadanne bandwagon, take a look at this newbie game he was in.

I haven't done a thorough read of all his games, but I just picked this one to read arbitrarily. In the above game, he was the doctor. On day 1 he kept asking about claiming, then when he collected a few votes for making useless posts, he claimed doctor. Then he claimed vanilla townie. On day two he claimed cop and doctor, and got himself lynched.

So as much as I agree that his playstyle is pretty useless and I would like to not have to put up with it, I don't think there's any particular reason to think he's scum. A Datadanne lynch today doesn't strike me as a super good choice.

[Sarag]

Tonight, I will rob the grave of whoever is lynched today. I will take the Twitchy insanity. Zwet - please do not also rob the grave.

If the alignment isn't revealed, lynch me tomorrow. I will not back down on this unless there is some kind of consensus for someone else

who did not hear noise

to do it instead, or if someone can give me a good argument for why a noise-hearer is a better choice.

Since I suggested we choose someone who didn't hear noise, a few people have commented simply that they don't have a problem with zwet doing it, but no one has actually said why he is a better choice than what I suggest. I can only conclude that people are being lazy and don't want to think about an issue they feel is mostly resolved. It's true that the noise danger is only a small drawback but we don't need to have even that small drawback.

---

So you admit he has a playstyle that confuses the hell out of town as town, and still defend him. Interesting.

Do you actually have something to say here? Please analylse my behaviour if you think it's interesting - does it seem scummy to you?

@ryan - you left me off your no noise list. I wasn't on the bandwagons though, so your analysis is unaffected.

I noticed the EriktheRed voting pattern as well and it is interesting. I'm not sure if it's enough for a lynch though, and I'm not really bothered by his case on zwet (although I disagree with it).

Also,

unvote Drench

. There are only four people who heard noise that we can't account for (arelian, Drench, Mastin, zwetschenwasser). This is few enough that there can't be many (if any) cultists fake-claiming noise, and these four are probably Investigators. I'm not going to give them a free pass, but the odds are enough to discourage me from voting one of them day 1.

Vote: chenhsi

for:
- Suggesting people vig Mastin if they don't like his playstyle, despite not thinking he is scum (post 234).
- Continuing to defend that position (post 400 and post 500), even after I pointed out how costly a vig is in this set up.

[Sarag]

Hey sorry I had a busy weekend, I need to catch up. I will just say that if you think what I said was rude, well I'm just trying to force a bit of discussion. I'm open to persuasive argument.

I'll do a proper post tomorrow probably.

[Sarag]

Hey I'm back, and catching up.

I heard noise last night. I didn't rob the grave, since I wasn't really around to discuss/defend my case, and a quick scan of the end of day 1 indicated zwet was still going to do it.

DeathNote, why didn't you resuscitate zwet, like you suggested you would?

It looks like Drench was probably going Murderer, so we probably don't need to rob his grave.

Someone (Sajin, I think) was asking me yesterday why I defended Datadanne's playstyle. You seem to be claiming that he was worth lynching for unhelpful playstyle, rather than scumminess. My problem was that a lot of people were saying they thought he was scummy and were voting for him on that basis. I didn't think that was a good read - his behaviour seemed consistent with his meta, and it was still unclear what his role might be. I don't want a lynch going through based on faulty analysis.

If people then took a look at his meta and decided a utility lynch was worth it, well then I didn't refute that, it's true, and there is an argument to be made there. But if he was to be lynched then it should be on those grounds rather than because he seemed scummy.

Regardless, a utility lynch of Datadanne didn't seem that great to me at the time. We still had plenty of time to try and catch scum.

[Sarag]

Sarag and Datadine both claimed they were stalking someone before.

Uh, no, I have not stalked anyone, and never claimed to do so. In fact, I was arguing that people should be cautious about using the one-shot vig.

[Sarag]

Ah I see people have already been hassling DeathNote for not resuscitating someone. Cool. Letting Datadanne kill him seems ok I guess. Better than lynching him, certainly.

At the folks saying I'm suspicous for being worried about zwet being killed - I looked at the situation and correctly identified a good target for the cultists to NK. I mentioned it in thread because it was preventable and I was trying to get it prevented! The fact that I didn't succeed in convincing people to have someone else grave rob (partly because I flaked on the game), means that I may have just given them the idea, which is kinda lame.

[Sarag]

I didn't ward anyone last night.

[Sarag]

I think Magua may be scum, more likely cultist than murderer.

Vote: Magua

.

He claims to have warded RestFermata (Exalt) last night, but Exalt had already heard noise the night before. Now, the noise can be explained because DeathNote claimed to have (wastefully) resuscitated Exalt on night 0, but the problem is that it could easily have masked a fetish or stalk. And many believe (Magua included) that DeathNote is not to be trusted. This means that RestFermata was not a good target for Magua's warding, as he may already have been in danger that no further warding could prevent. One of the many people who actually heard no noise would have been far superior.

Furthermore it's clear that Magua understood and had thought about who would be good ward targests, so we cannot chalk it up to a lapse in clear thinking:

3) Anyone with wards who didn't hear noise last night should ward someone else who didn't hear noise last night.

Choosing to ward RestFermata also gives him a convenient cover for crafting a fetish. If RestFermata turns up destroyed by an unspeakable horror, then he can just say the cult must have fetished him on night 1 and blame the newbish/scummy DeathNote for covering the noise. Magua wouldn't have that cover if he claimed to ward someone who heard no noise previously because they would still be invulnerable if he was telling the truth.

On top of that, he was strangely reluctant to rob the grave when I suggested he do so. I didn't think much of it at the time because he'd been making helpful and pro-town seeming posts. But really, an Investigator should have no qualms about robbing the grave. Investigators do not have carefully laid plans that might get disrupted, only Cultists and Murderers do. Any rational, team-playing Investigator (and Magua has gone to pains to seem like both) would easily recognise that the grave must be robbed, and that the insanity gained by doing so cannot practically be avoided (by an individual yes, but not by the team).

[Sarag]

EBWOP (paragraph after quote): ...the cult must have fetished him on night

0

...

[Sarag]

Kise - did you hear noise last night?

[Sarag]

But your logic about me being cult crafting. Were I cult crafting a fetish, I would've just claimed to use a resuscitation kit on RestFermata if I were going for a cover. All the benefits, none of the drawbacks.

Hmm, yes that's true. Well, RF would not have been the best target for that plan, but your point stands. Damn, oh well.

Unvote

.

Correct. I meant for people to claim if and who they researched before mass claiming insanity levels.

It isn't obvious to me why this is a better plan than claiming insanities first. Could you explain it please?

[Sarag]

Question for the mod:

If the number of Cultists submitting a name to the Moderator is equal to or greater than the number of Investigators performing Research, or half the number of surviving Cultists, whichever is smaller, then the target of the Ritual is killed.

If there are an odd number of cultists, do they need half rounded up, or down, to ensure the ritual goes through?

[Sarag]

because you can adjust your research-lie when you know how many insanities your fake-target has.

So is it better to try to catch research lies over insanity lies?

Let's see, if we claim insanity first - only Investigators are actually going to research, and it's good for them to be able to catch someone lying about their insanity count.

But it means that we give the cultists a safe action to claim - they can say they found someone with lower insanity with little controversy, and it gives them a good cover for their own insanity. Although if they accidentally pick an Investigator with some insanity, they could get themselves into trouble.

On the other hand, if we claim research first, it makes it harder for the cult to claim safely, but makes research less useful since people have a chance to make up a story to fit the insanities from a research claim (unless we don't claim the research target or result?).

Hmm, I'm still not sure which is better. I'm leaning towards insanity claims, but I really don't know.

[Sarag]

LONG NOISE ANALYSIS POST

I am going to assume 6 cult members.

Night 0.

I would guess 5-6 would have crafted fetishes, maybe one grabbed a res kit.

We know they made a fetish of Drench, so that's 1.

If we trust Kise, they fetished him night 0 since you can't craft and pass on the same night. That makes 2.

It seems likely that they made one of arelian since he heard noise that no one claimed to have caused, and he didn't die on night 1 (so he probably wasn't stalked on night 0). We're up to 3.

After that, the following people heard noise and weren't warded, although we know of at least one cause of noise for them:

Mastin (stalked)
zwet (stalked)
Tuberkulos (stalked)
Kise (used protective wards, could have had two fetishes crafted n0)
Exalt/RestFermata (res'd by DeathNote)

I estimate 2-3 people from the above list had fetishes crafted of them (and still in the hands of cultists).

So just based on night 0 noise, the following people may be in danger of being killed by the cult, and would be

decent choices to resuscitate

:

arelian
Kise
RestFermata

If we're lucky, the cult fetished some of the people that were murdered, wasting their actions. They almost certainly lost the one EriktheRed had, except on the off chance that he grabbed some other equipment n0 (if zwet were alive, he could tell us, oh well!)

Night 1

Down to 5 cultists, since EtR was lynched. I would guess that the cultists would assign half their group to submit a name for the ritual to avoid disruption from research. That means only 2 of them can craft fetishes (assuming none of them had to resuscitate a cult-buddy).

We also have the following noises accounted for:

Datadanne (stalked by KoC)
DeathNote (stalked by Datadanne)
RestFermata (warded by Magua)
Magua (used protective wards)
Cass (used protective wards)

It seems unlikely that the cult would bother fetishing Datadanne or DeathNote since their stalkers announced their intentions yesterday. If we believe Magua, then RF wasn't successfully fetished. I'll come back to Magua and Cass in a moment.

The following people heard noise on night 1 and we know of no explanation (

add them to the resuscitate candidate list

):

chenhsi
dramonic
Sajin
Sarag

RestFermata claims to have investigated someone last night so if it was one of the above four, that leaves 3 unexplained noises, 1 more than the number of fetishes I expect. Clearly, there was very little overlap of noise-generating activity, but we must also consider the following possibilities to account for the extra noise:

- we have some fake noise claims today
- there are more than 6 cultists
- the cultists risked the ritual being disrupted (can account for a max of 1 more noise, since we know the ritual did go through, meaning that at least 2 cultists must have submitted a name to cover the two research claims we have)
- someone decided to go murderer after day 1 (possible, since the noise claims were low and may have lead them to think they had little or no competition)
- someone decided to stalk in order to one-shot vig without claiming
- someone has warded, resuscitated or investigated someone without claiming

It's also possible that Magua and/or Cass were targeted by stalk or craft fetish, but I will put them at low risk since that requires us to draw more heavily from the above list of possibilities. Arelian may also have heard noise, or generated noise for someone.

I'm not really sure what to draw from all this, but it's at least good to have an account of what could possibly have taken place.

[Sarag]

There are two issues with saying who you will resuscitate:

(1) It leaves you vulnerable to attacks, since res kits do not work on you while you res someone else. This isn't an issue if you are invulnerable (have heard no noise, or were warded the only times you've heard noise).

(2) The cult will target someone who has not been named as a res target, because they know they are more likely to be successful (barring undeclared ressers).

It's harder to get around (2). Perhaps if we had say, 3 people who are invulnerable and have res kits, we could divide the potential res targets into 3 lists. Then each person could randomly pick someone from their sub-list - this would avoid overlapping res's and avoid giving the cult any clear sign of who will be protected and who is left vulnerable.

People who have heard noise but still want to use their res kit can then still do so without declaring it (but should consider not doing so so that they may be protected themselves).

[Sarag]

zwet, Tuberkulos and Mastin were likely targeted by people intending to go murderer (probably one of them was Drench). It isn't possible that any of them were targeted based on anything that transpired on day 1 because they would have to have been stalked on night 0.

Hi sykedoc! We have been claiming noise. Once you have had a chance to read up on why, could you let us know if you heard any noise last night?

[Sarag]

Ok, SOG, you have convinced me that tomorrow we should try research claiming first, then insanity claiming. If anyone else wants to read why, see SOG's post 945.

---

Cultists can each perform an action in addition to performing the ritual action. This is right in the rules and has been brought up in discussion at least once before.

Damn it! I can't believe I messed that up, I have even thought about that rule previously. Ok so they get another full round of fetishes.

---

Dramonic's claim is interesting. It's very tempting to lynch but the confession does count for something.

I agree with Magua in this case:

Case 2 is wrong -- if you're a murderer, killing you is *good* for the town (we can't win as long as you're alive, after all). But since you're claiming openly, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt on this one for the time being. If you're a murderer, we have four more days to lynch you before you fulfill your wincon regardless, and the cult would want you dead as well.

Also, dramonic, you cannot get res kits while bloody, so that option is pretty much closed to you now.

---

@Cass: you complained about the lack of scumhunting, and I tend to agree. The mechanics are complex and worth discussing though. Who do you think we should lynch?

[Sarag]

What does "ITT" stand for?

If dramonic agrees to grave rob, we will know if he doesn't, so long as no one else covers for him. His claim makes him unlikely to be cult so that doesn't seem like a risk.

[Sarag]

Kise, it is still possible that you could be killed by the Cult, but only if they made two fetishes of you on night 0.

[Sarag]

@Knight of Cydonia: a few people have suggested you shouldn't kill Datadanne tonight, and I tend to agree. What do you think, are you still intending to go through with it, or are you going to do something else?

@DeathNote: What do you think about the calls for you to use your res kit tonight?

[Sarag]

If he is town, he may not feel that dying will help the town.

[Sarag]

I've been re-reading this game, up to page 20. A couple of things I noticed:

- Drench was really jumpy about lynching Mastin, I think it makes it pretty clear that was his murder target (we've pretty much already established this though).
- I haven't gotten up to the bit where people wanted to lynch zwet yet, but I'll look out for people behaving like Drench.

- Chenhsi still seems a bit suspicious, I'm getting a bit of a cult vibe from him. I notice a few people are voting him or FoSing him now, so I want to read him in iso and make sure there is actually a case before voting. The thing that had me voting for him yesterday, and I still think is suspicious is that he thought Mastin's claim was a null-tell but was in favour of vigging him.

Nyx / Cass:
Nyx:
- voted for Mastin early
- tried to introduce WIFOM into noise claims (someone pointed this out as a mild tell and I agree)
- did this without contributing much to the discussion of noise claims
- hassled the easy targets of DeathNote and Datadanne (but didn't vote).

Cass has made more useful rules-related posts, and a small attempt at scumhunting, but:
- hasn't really followed through
- jumped on easy wagon of DeathNote
- said SOG's rather helpful town post could be town manipulation (not a big strike against, a healthy amount of skepticism is good, but this could also be cult trying to sow seeds of doubt)

Cass also voted for chenshsi following SOG's reasoning that he looked like he knew EtR was cult (I don't put much stock in it, and don't really know what this says about Cass, just putting it here for completeness).

So in summary, nothing big, but lots of little things.

Cephrir / Knight of Cydonia: Some pretty bad posts by Cephrir early on about Mastin, could just be he wasn't trying much. KoC was better, and voted for EriktheRed which gives him a bit of town cred. But this:

I'm gonna be honest here - I can't really see the argument for not killing him. On the one side, we have the fact that he's still not posted anything of any note, at all, that wasn't parroted from someone else. I really don't want players like this in the endgame, because they only help confuse things for the town.
On the other hand... well, I can't think of anything that makes him worth keeping around. That's the problem. Datadanne is either a very stupid, useless townie, or a very stupid cultist. Either way, as far as I can see, the town gains by his death.

I totally disagree. If Datadanne kills DeathNote, then he is pretty much confirmed town (although we will have to be wary of him going murderer). We should not kill confirmed town no matter how bad his play. I can see how KoC-as-murderer wouldn't see it that way though. I'm pretty suspicious KoC might be planning to go murderer - he replaced on day 1 so didn't choose the n0 action.

[Sarag]

I'd say it's the hardest win condition in the game, very subject to luck.

[Sarag]

I'm not sure people should be claiming

exactly

what insanities they have - voting restrictions could potentially be exploited by Cultists. e.g. paranoia - just don't vote for that person and they can't vote you (so long as someone has voted them).

I know it's a little late now, but perhaps in future if you pick up one of paranoia, avolition, distraction, sadism or aversion in the future just claim it as a voting restriction.

[Sarag]

People who have heard unaccounted noises should consider making actions that benefit the town without having to claim them tomorrow. For example, a player who researches someone but dies before they can share information is less useful to the town than someone who robs the grave of the lynced person that day but dies as that action still affects the town in a positive way the following morning, and with little potential information being lost.

This is the best argument so far for having noise-hearers rob the grave.

I definitely think it's worth robbing KoC's grave. He could either be town-turned-murderer or cultist (not-murderer) and that's worth knowing. I'm happy for Cass to do it.

So... Who do we have grave robbing?
Cass -> KoC
nhammen -> Mastin
dramonic -> today's lynch (or is he doing tomorrow's? I don't really mind)

What about others? Tuberkulos seemed pretty pro-town, but it's probably still worth knowing for sure.

Zwet's insanity and EtR's flip match his story, so probably town. I think if KoC flips cult, it's worth robbing zwet's grave, but maybe not otherwise.

Drench was almost certainly town-turned-murderer, probably not worth robbing his grave at all.

[Sarag]

Hey DeathNote, glad to see you're still around. Do you realise that you can still win even if you die? So if you're town, you can still try to play to win.

It's not really worth voting for Datadanne just for stalking you, because we will learn if he is scum or not if you die. Is there someone else you think is scummy?

[Sarag]

No, we are lining up to lynch dramonic.

Nope, dramonic definitely isn't cult.

Vote: Sajin

.

[Sarag]

Nope, dramonic definitely isn't cult.

Vote: Sajin

.

I thought about this a little more and considered whether it really could be a risky cult gambit. It may seem tempting - getting dramonic to grave rob means he has cover for insanities, as Sajin pointed out, and any cultist could cover the actual grave rob action. He also has an excuse to be bloody from the ritual as forensic tools don't distinguish between ritual blood and murder blood, and the exact number of insanities is hard to gauge using research. And if everyone believes he's non-cult (what crazy cultist would claim that??), that is handy.

But, ultimately I don't think it is a scum gambit because Tuberkulos' real murderer would probably kill dramonic if that were the case (murderers want to kill cultists more than investigators). I don't see how the cult could know if the real murderer was still around or not.

So yeah. I'm going with not a scum gambit. However, thinking about this has made me realise it isn't obvious and I shouldn't condemn Sajin for thinking it's a gambit.

Unvote. Vote: Cass.

[Sarag]

@Sarag: Why would murderers want to kill cult more than investigators?

Because that keeps the game going longer. Murderers are more likely to hit Investigators by accident, facilitating a fast Cult win. They want to extend the duration of the game so they can get in their three kills and have some breathing room to make up for set-backs.

I also want to point out a flaw in your reasoning: KoC asked for warding, and warding also protects from the stalk action. So he might have realized the danger from Tuberkulos' murderer.

I was talking about dramonic, not KoC.

Also, are you voting me now for thinking it could be a scum gambit?? Because that would make no sense at all...

No, I'm voting you because of the reasons I outlined in this post. The others I found scummy were KoC and chenhsi. KoC was modkilled, and I'm currently being cautious about voting chenhsi until I can get a handle on his current bandwagon - I want to be sure it's not cult driven. So by process of elimination, you get my vote for now.

---

I do have a question, though - if we think Deathnote is scum, which it is just about universally agreed that we do, why are we using a plan that will prevent us from verifying that for an extra day?

You do make a good point, but we are doing it this way because it will also tell us about Datadanne's alignment, a player who is also considered scummy by many. I'm not a huge fan of people using the vig a lot, especially just to gather information (I think it is better used later in the game once we have some good info on who might be cult). I also find it a bit weird that many players are unconcerned with the drawbacks.

Again, I haven't read back through the thread yet; but I'm worried this plan isn't taking the murderer threat seriously enough; and moreover, it drops an extra body - with no guarantee of success - while giving us less evidence to use tomorrow.

The kill count from night 1 is rather dramatic, but it suggests a bigger threat than actually exists. Drench was almost certainly one of the murderers but is now dead. Dramonic has confessed to killing Tuberkulos and is on grave robbing duty. That leaves us with one murderer working towards their win condition (probably zwet's killer). Of course, there is also the possibility of people going murderer more recently.

---

I'll rob Knight of Cydonia's grave tonight if no one objects.

[Sarag]

Sorry, make that I'll rob Tuberkulos' grave since Cass is doing KoC.

[Sarag]

SlySly, we have the following people robbing graves:

Cass -> KoC
nhammen -> Mastin
dramonic -> today's lynch
Sarag -> Tuberkulos

We're fairly certain of what zwet and Drench did and their alignments, so no one has yet decided it's worth spending a night action robbing their graves.

[Sarag]

@ZykeZero and Pablo Molinero: Why are you voting for chenhsi?

[Sarag]

I totally agree with Tom's argument. I think I missed this point because I haven't been so sure DN is scum (I can only flatter myself and believe I would have noticed otherwise). I saw that people were keen to off him anyway and since it was being done with a night kill, it didn't seem like there was a lot I could do about it (even ressing DN would lead to a worse situation for town).

But yeah, if you do think DN is scum and should die, you should be voting for him, Tom has made that very clear.

Until now, I've sort of been thinking that the decision about DN's scumminess had been decided for me, but now we have a good reason to consider him for the lynch again, I have re-read and factored him back into my lists. I still think it's possible he's newbie town, sulking about being targeted, but there is a distinct possibility that he is cult or murderer (especially as the day goes on, he's had a chance to cool off, is sounding more rational in his posts but still isn't being very pro-town). So yeah, I think he's probably the best lynch for today, better than chenhsi, or Cass.

Unvote. Vote: DeathNote.

[Sarag]

I don´t know about that, I think he´s just useless town.

Policy vig = bad.

[Sarag]

Vote: Furpants_Tom

Just what the hell are you doing?!
Creating mindless wagons, Buddying to chensi, Having shit logic, aso...

Lynching your stalk target? Oh no!!

[Sarag]

I really don't like the current mindless bandwagoning...

*twitch* Agree.

Oh come on, that's a ridiculous, kneejerk response to what's actually happening.

They didn't say exactly what they were referring to. But regardless, I think both bandwagons have cases, neither are mindless. Although there do seem to be a few just hopping on without much of a reason.

Perhaps chenhsi and nhammen could elaborate on exactly what they are objecting to. Who do you think is mindlessly bandwagoning at the moment? If you're talking about the following three, then I agree:

ZykeZero - voting chenhsi, claims to be following nhammen
chenhsi - voting DN, apparently agrees with Tom's argument (also obviously a competitor to his own lynch)
Pablo Molinero - voted chenhsi, claiming to be following the crowd, then DN, saying others are smarter than him

[Sarag]

Datadanne killing DeathNote is not a town approved kill, it is a Datadanne approved kill. Don't delude yourselves, guys. Sanctioning vigs is anti-town because:

1 - Targeted cultists can counter it.
2 - It gives cover to murderers.
3 - The information it gives townies is subject to cult control.
4 - It is most likely to succeed against townies.
5 - It wastes townie night actions, and makes it harder for other townies to detect scum.

@ chenhsi, nhammen, Magua: Please don't use statements like "I disilke players engaging in X behaviour". You need to talk about specific players or your statements are utterly useless. If you need me to point out where you did this, I can.

@Sajin: you can't vig everyone who disagrees with you and still be town. Stop throwing around empty threats, it's just lazy (that said, you have actually been engaging in somewhat useful discussion).

[Sarag]

If a cultist is targeted:

Again, I don't want to keep reiterating points: they spend two of their night actions (equip, res), we lynch the vig claim, grave rob them, and when they flip as non-cult, we lynch the target. What did the cult gain? Two night actions. What did they spend? Two night actions.

And we gain nothing we couldn't have gotten from lynching from the start, and we lose a bunch of time. And time runs in the cult's favour.

By outing them to the town

and to other murderers

. Look at dramonic. I am not worried about kills that are accounted for. I am worried about kills that are not.

That is exactly my concern as well. It is not the declared killers it gives cover to, but the undeclared ones. As Tom explained, someone declaring a stalk/murder target allows hidden murderers to target the same person, guaranteeing a kill without alerting the town to their existence.

In contrast, if we vote DeathNote today, we can potentially disrupt the plans of undeclared murderers. Just an added bonus if you think DN is scum.

The *important* information it gives to the town -- that is, the person claiming the kill is not cult -- is not subject to cult control.

Yes it is, they can res the target and we will have learned nothing concrete.

4 - It is most likely to succeed against townies.

If the person is a townie, it is better to vig them than lynch them.

My point here is that if we want to kill scum, we should NOT adopt a strategy that is good for killing townies.

Your point is that it's better to vig town than lynch town. The only advantage to this is that it semi-clears the person who claimed the kill. Killing one townie to confirm another seems like a poor trade.

As far as I can see, this is the BEST outcome of this plan. It is far from guaranteed, and it involves killing a townie. If I were cult I'd be loving this plan.

If the target is town, it is better to waste a night action than a lynch.

Not one night action.

Three

. Stalk, Murder, Launder. Not to mention the insanities, which can be quite restrictive (see how dramonic has crippled himself).

The only statements I've made that fit that description are "I dislike people posting 'rereading, post later' posts", in which case the specific people I was talking about were on the page where I made the post, and the most specific person is Jebus, who I'm still voting.

I'm referring to this:

I'm also disturbed at everyone who either:
1) agreed it was a waste of a lynch, and is now agreeing it's a great lynch, or
2) doesn't care enough and will just follow along either way.

[Sarag]

Yeah I agree with you on those.

[Sarag]

Grave robbing:

Cass -> KoC
nhammen -> Mastin
dramonic -> today's lynch
Sarag -> Tuberkulos

Good people to resuscitate:

The following have unexplained noise:

sykedoc (noise n0)
chenhsi (noise n1)
dramonic (noise n1, also n0 but was warded by Kise)
Sajin (noise n1)
Sarag (noise n1)

The following have explained noise that could have masked stalk or fetish:

Furpants_Tom (noise n0 - res'd by DN, also noise n1 but warded by Magua)
Kise (noise n0, has his fetish but two could have been crafted)
Magua (warded Furpants_Tom)
Cass (warded Magua)
Datadanne (n1 - stalked by Knight of Cydonia)

There's also DeathNote, if he isn't lynched, Datadanne says he'll kill him. But please don't res DN or we lose valuable information.

Good people to ward:

SlySly
JamesBond
ryan2754
nhammen
semioldguy
Pablo Molinero
Jebus (did hear noise n1 but was warded by Tuberkulos)
ZykeZero

[Sarag]

If dramonic has Avolition, as he claims, and if no one else votes, then chenhsi will be lynched since he got to 5 before DeathNote did. If he's lying, DeathNote will be lynched.

Check out the voting history:

chenhsi - 6 (semioldguy, Cass, nhammen, ZykeZero, Pablo_Molinero, DeathNote)

DeathNote - 1 (Furpants_Tom)

Post 1179 - dramonic votes chenhsi (putting him at 7, or 6 with avolition).

Posts 1180 - 1185 SlySly, chenhsi and myself all vote DeathNote (bringing him up to 4).

Post 1186 - Pablo switches his vote from chenhsi to DeathNote (putting chenhsi at 6, or 5 with dramonic's avolition; putting DeathNote at 5 - regardless, chenhsi reached 5 first).

chenhsi - 6 (semioldguy, Cass, nhammen, ZykeZero, DeathNote, dramonic)

DeathNote - 5 (Furpants_Tom, SlySly, chenhsi, Sarag, Pablo Molinero)

Post 1215 - dramonic switches his vote from chenhsi to DeathNote (taking chenhsi to 5 and DeathNote to 6, OR if he has avolition, they remain equal at 5, with chenhsi having gotten there first).

DeathNote - 6 (Furpants_Tom, SlySly, chenhsi, Sarag, Pablo Molinero, dramonic)

chenhsi - 5 (semioldguy, Cass, nhammen, ZykeZero, DeathNote)

[Sarag]

Aww, you totally ruined the ride

That supposes no one else took avolition.

Yeah it does.

[Sarag]

Up to you. We've only been claiming wards and noise. We probably shouldn't declare every night action since that would let the cultists know what equipment the investigators have, but if you have useful info to share, then I don't see why not.

[Sarag]

Correction: we've also been claiming insanity and in some cases, research. There's been a bit of discussion but people are doing this fairly haphazardly.

[Sarag]

No chenhsi grave rob? Today we lynch dramonic, and tonight Datadanne robs his grave.

Vote: dramonic

.

Nice save, whoever prevented the cult kill.

I robbed Tuberkulos' grave and he had protective wards. It looks like he was telling the truth - he started with the wards and used them n0 on Jebus, as he said.

I also heard noise again.

Insanity Infraction

[Sarag]

And *twitch* god damn it.

[Sarag]

The point of you robbing the grave is to prove you aren't a murderer, to make you accountable to the town.

So you killed nhammen?

*twitches*

[Sarag]

I don't think we need to waste time trying to convince dramonic that he is scum.

Datadanne - will you rob the grave tonight?

SlySly - you could also rob a grave tonight if you like.

The two dead bodies are likely scum.

Actually nhammen may not have been. He volunteered to rob Mastin's grave last night, and Mastin's grave was indeed robbed. He also claimed to have researched me on night 1, which would account for his second insanity. It doesn't count much for you guys, but I at least can verify that he got my insanity count right (it was 0 - it's now 1 from grave robbing last night).

Nhammen's killer must have started after day 1 (stalked night 1). But here's the weird thing, he claimed to hear no noise night 1. Maybe he misread his PM.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Night 2 noise claims

Noise:

Furpants_Tom
Kise
Sarag
semioldguy

No noise:

SlySly
Datadanne
dramonic
Sajin
ryan2754

Unclaimed:

sykedoc
JamesBond
Magua
Cass
Pablo Molinero
Jebus
ZykeZero

*twitches*

[Sarag]

@mod - Does a person's insanity count go down when avolition expires?

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Night 2 noise claims

Noise:

Furpants_Tom
Kise
Sarag
semioldguy
Cass
Pablo Molinero

No noise:

SlySly
Datadanne
dramonic
Sajin
ryan2754
ZykeZero

Unclaimed:

sykedoc*
JamesBond*
Magua
Jebus*

*being replaced

Grave robbing

Datadanne -> today's lynch
? -> DeathNote
? -> chenhsi
? -> zwet
? -> nhammen

Furpants_Tom said he could rob DeathNote's grave, but would prefer someone else to. SlySly and semioldguy have also said they're willing to rob graves. I don't think we should get people who have already robbed graves to do it again, unless we are suspicious of them (e.g. Datadanne). The only grave I don't think is worth robbing is Drench's.

If someone was successfully resuscitated I think they should claim. Scum already know that their kill didn't go though, so revealing that you were saved does not provide any information to scum that they don't already know. The person who did the resuscitate action should probably not come forward though, as scum don't know who you are.

I agree with this! Please come forward if you were res'd.

I graverobbed KoC, found no items.

I think this may be indicative that Knight of Cydonia actually was cult prior to going murderer.

It's true, he could not have been an Investigator-turned-Murderer with 1 insanity and no equipment (he could not have become bloody and destroyed a res kit with only one insanity and having heard no noise).

We still know something didn't add up with what KoC claimed.To be a cult-turned-murderer with 1 insanity, he couldn't have stalked Datadanne. He may have fetished him. I don't know how he was planning to cover it since claiming the cult killed a known murder target seems stupid. But he did out himself, which was also pretty stupid. Anyway, this doesn't really matter.

The only unaccounted for murder is that of nhammen

What about zwet? We have:
zwet killed by ?
Mastin killed by Drench
Tuberkulos killed by dramonic
DeathNote killed by Datadanne
nhammen killed by ?

We can't assume chenhsi was murderer, he could have been cult. They may have been limited in how well they could spread the insanities around by who was holding which fetishes. They also want to ensure the ritual isn't disrupted by research. Two insanities on a cultist is plausible, especially since they had lost at least 2, maybe 4.

The same goes for DeathNote.

*twitch*

Looking over Sarag's (or nhammen's) list of who heard noise but it wasn't claimed. Decided to protect her, especially since she was grave robbing.

She was in my resuscitate list, not the ward list (which was just below it).

@all- I am attempting to put a insanity count claim list back up. To ease this, if you could claim your insanity count it would be greatly appreciated.

We should wait for research claims. See this post for why.


It seems as though the cult are pretty screwed right now. Murderers should be as high a priority lynch.

We should also do some Mastin analysis now we know his alignment. He gave us plenty of material. without re-reading, I'm less inclined to think Cass is cult.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Ah yep, you're right, SOG. I even applied the same rationale to KoC. Good thing you're here to catch my mistakes.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

dramonic fished for Cass' equipment pretty blatantly, but I didn't see Sajin fish for Kise's.

@Magua- Jebus has requested replacement. He's no longer actively lurking. Kise is though, and I think you might be on to something there.

I will gladly rob a grave if needed, as I think revealed alignments are very beneficial, but after a little thought, I would prefer if I were not to be one of the counted on grave robbers for the upcoming night.

What? Why?

@ everyone - we need grave robbers. Why are people so reluctant? It needs to be done. It makes you somewhat accountable to town, which is good. SOMEONE has to take that insanity, why are you so special that you don't have to? And we need to spread them around, not load up the same Investigators with all of them.

SOG made the argument that it should be people who heard noise, because we get the result regardless. But it's also useful to know if the dead person had any equipment (case in point - KOC), so non-noise hearers don't feel you shouldn't volunteer.

Night 2 noise claims

- just waiting to hear from replacements now

Noise:

Furpants_Tom
Kise
Sarag
semioldguy
Cass
Pablo Molinero
Magua

No noise:

SlySly
Datadanne
dramonic
Sajin
ryan2754
ZykeZero

Unclaimed:

sykedoc*
JamesBond*
Jebus*

*being replaced

*twitches*

[Sarag]

We need to hear from replacements before ending the day.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

I also would like Kise to rob a grave, and to explain why he did nothing on night 1.

Any objections to the following? I'm happy to revise it.

Grave robbing

Datadanne -> today's lynch
Kise -> DeathNote
Magua -> chenhsi
SlySly -> zwet
ZykeZero -> nhammen

I put semioldguy and Furpants_Tom on reserve since they volunteered early and have been seeming pretty town to me.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

There is never any reason to do nothing in the night.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

But you can't Rob the Grave tonight if all you have is wards as of right now.

No, robbing the grave is always possible. There are no equipment-related restrictions or requirements.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Dramonic, just face it, you fucked up and now you're going to lose.

We have to lynch you either today, tomorrow or the next day to stop you winning. We should get it out of the way now so we have more time to find and lynch - before they win - that other murderer who hasn't been so kind as to declare themselves in the thread. Also, the sooner we kill you the sooner we stop you from killing other people - and considering how masterfully you've played the murderer role, I'm not willing to trust you to hit scum.

We have at least two dead cultists, almost certainly 4 (with no equipment, KoC is 99% confirmed cult, and zwet with him), so we can afford to kill a confirmed murderer instead of someone we maybe think could possibly be cult.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Datadanne robs your grave, dramonic, so that we know what he did during the night and that it wasn't stalking or murdering anyone.

Ryan, the evidence suggests I'm not a murderer. Both Sajin and nhammen claimed to research me on night 1 and "cleared" me. I robbed Tuberkulos' grave last night. When would I have had time for murdering?

Why do you think Magua might be cult?

Grave robbing

Datadanne -> today's lynch
Kise -> DeathNote
Magua -> chenhsi
ryan2754 -> zwet
ZykeZero -> nhammen

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Dramonic, you're such a good murderer, almost as good as KoC.

<3

[Sarag]

Dramonic, I agree, you have lost the game, so it doesn't matter what you say.

It was just a really dumb move to reveal yourself to town, that's all.

[Sarag]

Hey Nacho!

[Sarag]

Wait for noise and other claims from the replacements.

[Sarag]

Well we could at least wait for nacho to claim.

[Sarag]

Grave robbing:

Datadanne -> today's lynch
Kise -> DeathNote
Magua -> chenhsi
ryan2754 -> zwet
ZykeZero -> nhammen

Good Resuscitate Targets:

- Kise (used protective wards n0 and n2)
- nachomamma8 (unexplained n0)
- Furpants_Tom (DN claimed to resuscitate him n0, unexplained n2)
- Datadanne (unexplained n1 -was being "stalked" by KoC which we now know was a lie - but who knows what the other cultists thought?)
- Sajin (unexplained n1)
- Sarag (unexplained n1, resuscitated by Pablo Molinero n2)
- Magua (used protective wards n1, unexplained n2)
- Cass (used protective wards n1)
- semioldguy (unexplained n2)
- Pablo Molinero (investigated by Furpants_Tom n2)

Good Ward Targets:

- SlySly
- ryan2754
- ZykeZero

Jebus and JamesBond haven't claimed but were otherwise safe.

[Sarag]

Kise, nachomamma8 and Furpants_Tom are almost certainly not cultists.

Here's why:

Now we know Mastin was a cultist, and probably zwet too. We know neither was protected by a fellow cultist, which means they probably all crafted fetishes on night 0.

From the noise claims, it's likely that all of these people were fetished night 0:
- Drench (killed by the ritual)
- Tuberkulos (used protective wards, was stalked)
- Kise (used protective wards, was later passed his own fetish)
- sykedoc (unexplained noise)
- Furpants_Tom (DeathNote claimed to have resuscitated him)

I would expect 1-2 more cultists (and thus noise) but the other people who claimed noise on night 0 were:

Dramonic

- warded by Kise. If Kise was lying then he probably doesn't have a fetish of himself and we have accounted for no more fetishes.

Jebus

- warded by Tuberkulos, who was probably telling the truth since he flipped town and I found wards on his corpse.

zwet and Mastin

- both cult.

So I'm ruling those four out as fetish crafting targets.

Maybe one of the cultists took no action night 0, or a second one crafted a fetish of Kise.

[Sarag]

you reason for discounting these people as being possible cult is faulty in my opinion as it doesn't take into acount the possibility of those players lying. Trying to clear people as cult is best done through combinations of other actions from multiple people.

...

Also I don't see how that could possibly clear Furpants_Tom, as the night he was resuscitated it wasn't even possible that he could have died. And even if it were possible, how is someone being a target for resuscitation an indication of their alignment. (Though if DeathNote flips scum, then there would be more validity to this line of thinking)

It's based on noise claims night 0 and who could possibly have had a fetish crafted of them. The simple fact is, there aren't many possibilities. You said that it's not reliable because it's based on those people's reports. That's a reasonable concern, but unless lots of other people lied and said they did NOT hear noise when they did (unlikely), or several cultists failed to craft fetishes on night 0 (also unlikely), my analysis is solid.

The specific causes of the noise is not important, I included them to demonstrate that they could have masked a craft fetish (and that the person was not warded).

It is not 100% cleared because some of the people warding could have lied and thus their targets may not be safe, but I have said why I think it's unlikely in the two cases we have. I'm also assuming zwet was cult, which hasn't been confirmed yet.

[Sarag]

Noises, insanities, actions if you want to. So we just need to know if you heard noise.

[Sarag]

@semioldguy: I agree that if you are not cult, ZykeZero is probably not cult. If he is cult, then you are too.

Your argument relies on us trusting you.

My reasoning from noise / fetish crafting actually doesn't have this flaw. It is based on verifiable events - noise claims and action claims (not actual noise and actions, but the claims), known alignments of dead players, and a few small inferences about what people are likely to lie about.

The weakest points to my argument are Kise and zwet. If Kise is lying, the others are still just as likely to be non-cult. We will hopefully know about zwet tomorrow.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Yeah, neither do I.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Gah, someone kill him already. :p

Looker, did you hear noise last night? Anything else you want to report?

*twitches*

[Sarag]

I did not hear noise last night. My insanity count remains at 1.

@mod: If someone makes a successful resuscitate, do they and the victim get blood on them at the time of resuscitate (in the listed order of events) or at the time of the kill that was prevented?

*twitches*

[Sarag]

Looker, in the first post, all the possible night actions are listed. The order they appear in that list is the order they actually happen.

So I'm asking about when the blood happens.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

I'm curious to see what semioldguy will say about Pablo's claim.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

I investigated semioldguy last night and found him bloody. That's what caused your noise last night, not the resuscitates.

I don't think there is any possible scenario in which semioldguy was not saved, but I should double check.

*twitches*

[Sarag]

I'm a little behind, I've been busy the last few days. I should get to properly catch up on the weekend.

@Sly - I think the "possible cult connection between" Zyke and SOG was no stronger than for anyone else really - we were running through all possible scenarios.

[Sarag]

I don't think we should declare our actions ahead of time, it makes it too easy for the cult to work around us. But perhaps if each day we say what we did the night before, that would make people more accountable.

I think res and ward are still useful, but we should be focusing more on research and investigate. We have a good numbers lead and information is what we need now. Investigate is particularly useful at this stage - with several townies using forensic tools, we have a decent chance of finding blood in a few nights' time. Additionally, if the cultists are aware we're prioritising investigate, that means they will be forced to launder and waste night actions or risk getting caught.

So at worst we keep the cultists restricted in their kills by forcing them to launder (so they can't craft fetishes), and at best we find cultists (or murderers if there are any).

I also think the bloody investigators should launder tonight.

[Sarag]

I'm sick at the moment, so my activity is a little low.

Does anyone have a list of claims from today? I haven't updated my notes.

[Sarag]

Ok I've caught up on my notes, but I'm too tired to try to put together some analysis, although I have a few inklings I want to follow up on, so hopefully my next post will be better than my last few.

First,

vote: Looker

. Explain your insanity and I might remove the vote. You are being SUPER scummy by avoiding this.

@mod - Datadanne unvoted Kise and is voting No Lynch.

Noted and fixed.

@semi - your noise list agrees with mine except that on night 2 my noise was explained by Pablo resuscitating me, and I don't know of an explanation for Furpants_Tom's noise.

@Datadanne - explain the following:

I got a res kit from dramonic, But that´s gone now.

How could you have gotten a res kit from dramonic? He claimed to have already destroyed his when he got bloody from killing Tuberkulos.

And will everyone please

STOP CLAIMING YOUR GEAR

. If scum know what we have, especially if we plan what actions we will take, they can easily plan around us. In fact,

FoS: Tom

for suggesting it.

[Sarag]

And I don't think the cult will be able to plan around us - we're not announcing our investigation or resuscitation targets

Even if we don't declare targets, if we declare that we will or might be taking the resuscitate action, the cultists will know a target that is less likely to be able to be protected from the ritual.

@Tom & Sajin - why are you still voting Kise?

[Sarag]

@semi - your noise list agrees with mine except that on night 2 my noise was explained by Pablo resuscitating me, and I don't know of an explanation for Furpants_Tom's noise.

Correction - dramonic claimed to have stalked Tom on night 2.

[Sarag]

I know why you say you have. And it's a compelling reason. However, out of a field of mostly innocent-seeming townfolk, you're the closest to scummy I can find. If someone can sell me on a better target, I'm all ears.

What about Looker?

[Sarag]

@mod - I voted for Looker in 1683.

So you did.

[Sarag]

Goddamn it, I can't believe Magua is flaking.

[Sarag]

my insanity? it's compulsion. i have to wash my clothes tonight.

You've already said WHAT it is. We want to know HOW did you get it? There are a number of things that cause insanity, some of them are things that only scum do, so we want to know what caused yours.

You said you predecessor chose it, so it would have been caused by something he did. Re-check your PM or ask the mod if you're unsure.

[Sarag]

The guy you found blood on. Are you sure you're bloody, Looker? Or was it just the PM stating that Pablo was bloody?

[Sarag]

Looker is at L-2 with semioldguy willing to vote. Let's be careful we don't lynch before we get more explanation.

[Sarag]

Honestly I can't really reconcile his (her?) claiming blood on Pablo with being a cultist. I want answers, and I pressure voted to get them. Given the danger of a lynch, I'll now

unvote

.

[Sarag]

It says blood is everywhere and that my tools are broken.

But I guess it could be taken as Pablo being bloody. It didn't specifically say that I was bloody, but I don't know the standard PM format.

You don't become bloody from a successful investigate. If you're bloody it's from something else.

[Sarag]

The guy you found blood on. Are you sure you're bloody, Looker? Or was it just the PM stating that Pablo was bloody?

You trying to give Looker an out? I see he took it.

I didn't just make up that scenario, I got it from Looker's post after semioldguy questioned him about blood:

@darkwing: It said that blood was everywhere, so I assumed that meant on me, too.

I also got the message that blood was everywhere when I investigated semioldguy, so that's why I think he isn't actually bloody.

(I know we're not supposed to use flavour text to clear people, but Looker wasn't deliberately trying to do that, so I hope my saying this is ok.)

[Sarag]

Looker, you still need to explain yourself. I think a full action / equipment / insanity / blood claim would be appropriate.

[Sarag]

I agree. Pressure is all well and good, but I do not think we should lynch Looker.

@everyone voting Looker - If you think he is a cultist, explain how it makes sense for him to have (correctly) claimed blood on Pablo. If you don't think he is a cultist, why are you voting for him?

[Sarag]

ZykeZero, Pablo, are you guys still around?

[Sarag]

Ok I'm going to put my vote somewhere a bit more useful.

Vote: CSL

Day 2 Cass claimed to have warded Magua, but Magua was off warding someone else so it failed. It could be true, but it was also a safe thing for a cultist to claim, especially since Cass mentioned it after Magua had already claimed.

Also, Cass volunteered to rob KoC's grave. Not anyone's grave, but KoC's specifically. It's not an appealing choice for an investigator because he was unlikely to have any useful gear. That is unless you're his cult-buddy, in which case robbing the grave is a great way to retrieve fetishes (perhaps multiple fetishes for only one action), something we suspect the cult have been a bit short on for a while.

I had some other suspicions of her on day 2 but they were fairly mild.

It's not the strongest case, but it's the best thing I can see at the moment.

[Sarag]

Pablo is possibly the most investigated player in the game so far.

ZykeZero and Magua both claim to have researched him night 2 and found him to have 0 insanities. If this is true, it means that Pablo did not stalk on night 0 or night 1 and did not submit a name for the ritual on night 1.

Tom also claims to have investigated him on night 2 and found him clean. If this is true, it means that IF Pablo murdered or submitted a name for the ritual (making both Zyke and Magua liars), then Pablo must have laundered on night 1 or 2.

Today Looker claimed blood on Pablo, and he said it was because he resuscitated semioldguy. SOG agreed he'd been saved, Sajin also corroborated the story as he claimed to have resuscitated as well. I also found blood on semioldguy.

Here are the possibilities:
- SOG, Pabo and Sajin are all Investigators, and their stories are true.
- SOG and Pablo are Investigators. Sajin is scum and jumped in with an unverifiable claim which gives him a reason to have blood on him.
- SOG is an Investigator. Pablo is scum, caught with blood and knowing the ritual didn't go through claimed to protect SOG, whom he knew was the target. Sajin is town and actually protected SOG.
- SOG is scum and was attacked by a different scum faction. Pablo (and possibly Sajin) is an investigator and innocently protected SOG.
- SOG is a cultist with Pablo and was attacked by a murderer. Pablo protected him. Sajin, an Investigator, also protected him.
- SOG was not attacked, and he is scum with Pablo and Sajin. From my perspective this one doesn't make sense. I found blood on SOG so that means SOG submitted the name, Pablo was also bloody so he must have too. But then why would Sajin jump in and say he protected? If there are 3 scum left then they would only need 2 to submit a name to beat research.

So I think it's almost confirmed that SOG was attacked. If we have no murderers left, then that makes him an Investigator. I think it's likely, but by no means certain that we have no murderers left.

Scenarios in which Pablo is scum are consistent with all the investigate reports so far. He may have just been crafting fetishes and didn't participate in the ritual until last night.


I don't find SOG's vote turnaround to be particularly scummy, I think he basically had the same perspective as me, and no one hassled me for it. It was about applying pressure until details were clarified. They mostly are now (although yes, Looker you need to confirm, FFS), and the building bandwagon with an approaching deadline became a concern.

What I do find scummy, is SOG's refusal to launder. You aren't cleared, dude. You have to launder so we can investigate you down the line. Not to do so just gives you cover for being bloody and that is NOT COOL. Pablo, Sajin, I want you guys to launder tonight as well.

That said, I'm not keen on a SOG lynch today. MORE CSL VOTES PLEASE!

[Sarag]

Ok a couple of peope are keen to off Kise (Tom, Magua) for coasting and being useless. I agree he has been doing that, and is a decent target for that reason. It put him on par with CSL for accountability.

The only thing that makes me more inclined to vote CSL is that Kise robbed DeathNote's grave as requested, whereas Cass (CSL) volunteered to rob the grave of an ex-cultist, and I think it may have been to get fetishes while appearing accountable - and if you look at Cass' and CSL's contribution, it's not like it's all that amazing.

[Sarag]

Unfortunately for you, Nacho, that was a test. I wanted to get a reaction out of one person on that just so I can seize them on it.

Whelp, about to go read them and post my findings.

This ought to be interesting.

[Sarag]

What do other people think about laundering?

It might even be worth encouraging people to investigate Sajin and Pablo to ensure they do.

If semioldguy refuses, I'll be mighty tempted to lynch him.

[Sarag]

I also think the bloody investigators should launder tonight.

What I do find scummy, is SOG's refusal to launder. You aren't cleared, dude. You have to launder so we can investigate you down the line. Not to do so just gives you cover for being bloody and that is NOT COOL. Pablo, Sajin, I want you guys to launder tonight as well.

I'd be calling for Datadanne to do so as well, but he took Taboo: Launder (which in itself is worthy of a *facepalm*). We'll have to rely on grave robbing every second night to keep him in check.

[Sarag]

I assume that test was because its impossible for someone to die in this setup if they have not heard noise at night (or lynched).

This I don't get. CSL has heard noise.

@Sarag- Do you understand why semi is investigator from my viewpoint?

Well I guess it's because you are assuming there are no murderers left.

Do you also understand how I am proven investigator if it can be proved my insanity did not go up last night by someone else researching?

If someone researches you tonight and finds your insanity is 1, as you claim, then it is still possible that you are a Cultist that submitted Drench's name for the ritual and have been bloody since then, and done nothing but craft fetishes since. So I guess that's a no.

I volunteer to rob the grave of either Drench or the lynch of today.

I'd rather have Looker, CSL or Kise rob the grave of the lynch. I don't think we need to rob Drench's grave unless we want to force someone's night action, and I have no desire to force yours at the moment.

[Sarag]

Looker, would you rob the grave tonight?

If no one else volunteers, I guess SlySly will do it.

[Sarag]

Fine with me.

[Sarag]

Yeah, Datadanne, what's up with that?

[Sarag]

Give up now, scum. *pew pew*

I did not hear noise last night.

Tom is pretty much confirmed town, likely only with forensic tools so it's probably not worth robbing his grave.

It is safe to assume his results of no blood on Pablo and ZykeZero are correct, for what they're worth.

[Sarag]

V/LA for today and tomorrow.

I haven't read the whole thread and don't have time to double check the insanity, but I'm pretty sure SlySly got the infraction for discussing Datadanne even though he didn't mention him by name.

[Sarag]

Who robbed CSL's grave last night?

Kise volunteered yesterday, I don't know why. I don't think he should have and am waiting for him to provide his reason why he volunteered.

To get your fetish off of his corpse?

I like this reasoning.

I agree with this, it's one of the reasons I voted for CSL. Is it too much to think we'd be so lucky as to catch two scum this way? Maybe, but Kise has also been pretty useless all game. He continued to do so claiming confusion about mechanics, and failed to lift his game despite calls for him to scumhunt normally without worrying too much about mechanics.

Vote: Kise

.

I'm not happy about Pablo failing to launder. I think he even said he would, but I don't have time to check.

I agree Datadanne should rob the grave of the lynch.

I believe Nacho just missed the noise in his PM. There is no reason to pretend to have heard no noise when you did.

I can research Sajin tonight. Investigators on 3 insanities may want to take a break from researching and equip something new. Also, investigators with 0 or 1 insanities might want to equip books and do a bit of research.

Sajin, are you still bloody?

[Sarag]

What?? Why would we no lynch?

Vote: Chaco

.

[Sarag]

Data, why are you voting Chaco for something you did yesterday? Just bored and bandwagoning?

[Sarag]

So much for the impossibility of Kise being the last scum. For those who are capable, I think it is time to start voting murderers.

I agree with this. I'm voting Chaco for now for the no lynch vote, I could go for Datadanne as well. Not sure who else could be murderer, I guess once we have the full claims I'll spend some time looking at my spreadsheet and see if anything stands out.

Started with Forensic Tools.
N0 - Equip Protective Wards*.
N1 - Equip Resuscitation Kit*. Heard noise.
N2 - Rob grave: Tuberkulos. Got more protective wards. Heard noise. Insanity: 1 (Twitchy).
N3 - Investigate semioldguy, found blood (tools destroyed).
N4 - Equip Occult Books (some people have been holding books for a while and are getting insane - time to spread the research around).

*My thinking with equipping early is I thought it was better to have options in end game, rather than semi-randomly using abilities early on.

[Sarag]

I will research Sajin tonight.

Tonight I'll update my spreadsheet and check semioldguy's working. I like his case on Magua.

Do the two with claimed 0 insanity both have books? Could they research eachother?

[Sarag]

Vote: Magua.

[Sarag]

Is Data the only one left? Maybe we should lynch him instead.

[Sarag]

Everything.

[Sarag]

We've got just over 2 hours left til deadline.

[Sarag]

Sadly we were beset by many murderers, who managed to swing the game strongly in town's favour early on. That plus a lucky day 1 lynch meant we just had to play it out without messing up too much.

Sorry CSL, for pushing a bandwagon on you just after you replaced in. Not all that sorry for lynching scum though.

Good job Magua for sticking out a game that must have been hard going, especially after KoC's betrayal.

Kudos to nhammen and semioldguy for doing a lot of good detective work, Tom for breathing some life into an issue I was struggling with, and Sajin for setting a great murderer trap. I also thought SlySly came in pretty strong, he was a great replacement to have.

I think I managed to make up for my crappy day 1 play. I just had a lot of stuff going on at the start of the game that I wasn't expecting. I'm glad I was able to keep playing though. I enjoyed this game, although I realise now that I prefer smaller games. Thanks Percy, for running it.

[Sarag]

Data would have been the next lynch target I think. :p

[Sarag]

I would also like to point out that almost all of the people in favour of vigging early were scum.