NY 118 - BBM's Large Normal Mafia (Game!)

[flinter]

/confirm

[flinter]

vote: UA

Something's really not right there. Either he and Shanba communicated outside this thread or UA is just doing what Shanba wants him to. Either way, it deserves explanation.

page 2. Seen that everybody can read UA's sig, this is odd.


Jdodge has the first serious post. Small tell in his favor, I guess

Well it's funny to see the reactions I got from pretending I knew UA was scum. I have played with him before, I believe. At any rate, no one as experienced as me would really pretend that they knew someone was scum in the RVS. And the fact that it's tradition to start with a bandwagon on UA should make my actions even less remarkable. Anyway, I'm glad I make it worth it to you, UA.

unvote

Good to see some discussion starting.

I don't like this at all. Dana does everything he can to make his actions seem null.

Whatever. Wagon me. Don't care. You'll probably realize it's pointless eventually, because I know the people here in general are smart enough to see through your lies. It's obvious Poro just wants me lynched, because all he's done is say my post is BS without saying why or how that makes me scum. I'm not going to stoop to the level of "no, it's not". The truth of that post is for me to know, and for you to guess. Poro is guessing.

Every town is guessing at this point. Im sorry dana, but this isn't helping you.

...

AtE

...

More AtE
Also, no explanation is really needed, but in case you needed it, go check out that quote from the other site I put up.

Xite, please, when you are making a point, do it complete and correct. Show how the appeal to emotion is in anyway scummy, as we are human beings and emotions are good. I like emotions, as they can tell you who is town or scum.

But I can't shake the feeling that JDodge is distancing from dana, so

FoS Jdodge and dana

Will be voting dana as soon as I see the votecount (don't want to get anywhere near L-1/hammer without a LOT more conversation)

"can't shake the feeling that JDodge is distancing" is a horrible argument. You have no reason to believe this (or you would have given it), but still you act on it. And I don't know what your experience is, but discussions like these are most often between two townies or one towny and one scum. I would gladly hear your reason why this case is between two scum, and if you don't have one, I would like you to pick which side of this argument (JDodge's or Dana's) you like best.

vote: Furcolow

Didn't take long to do that scumhunting. He contradicts himself twice. First he says he's not switching his vote, then threatens to do so. Second, he calls UA an idiot, then says "in case your an idiot" like he's not an idiot. And finally, he says UA has been buddying me, which could not be farther from the truth.

I'm sorry, but I would rather have you work a little longer on your scumhunting. I fear it won't be so succesful this way. Next time you have a player who has made "contradictions" would you be so kind to provide us with quotes and reasonings why these contradictions are scummy?




And then, sadly, Dana and Furcolow began to practice the typical sport here called "debating". Please, say something of value, or don't say anything. It makes my live easier.

Yeah, I come from a very different background than most of you, I bet, so my posts would naturally stick out. That's what I've always thought, anyway. Trust me, though, I've been town in at least 5 games where the overwhelming majority of the other players were completely sure I was scum. Not that I expect that to really help me in this game. I wouldn't know about Furcolow, but I'm pretty sure he isn't usually posting this way (I have played one game with him in it).

I know a few things that might help. One is to stop playing on intuition, as it makes your playstyle reactive. It is one of the things you are voted for. Further, people percieve you as town if your posts are more meaningful. At this moment, you argue too much, and you say too little. The last thing you should do is taking the game serious at any moment.


@ the rest. From this post, my doubts about this bandwagon get confirmed. It just is too easy. Dana OMGUS-votes twice, "lies" in one of his first posts, votes people for "contradictions" and argues with anybody who attacks him. If he is scum, he would be a maniac (sorry if you are actually scum), as in the first newby game everybody is told not to OMGUS-vote, and scum is more concious of such rules.

Now then, we aren't looking at newby-obvscum, but we are looking at a scummy playstyle.

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sorry dana, here is the post as it should have been made:

I know a few things that might help. One is to stop playing on intuition, as it makes your playstyle reactive. It is one of the things you are voted for. Further, people percieve you as town if your posts are more meaningful. At this moment, you argue too much, and you say too little. The last thing you should do: take the game serious at any moment.

Sorry, that could be read in two ways.


About the arguing: it is more impressive if you can make one post everyday that is meaningful then that you are arguing with testosterone fueled (sorry if this is insulting) posts which are mostly about "who is right", or "who is dominant". Your first posts about Furc weren't that convincing, and that makes that the next posts are mostly skipped as "oh, that is dana who is tunneling and arguing without actually scumhunting."

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First, Frank is also scum
Dana could just be really bad town, but depending on other flips could be scum too.
Wraith is scum.
Jdodge is possible scum.

you just named all the notable posters and excluded Shanba because he posts as if he is your best friend?

Now I read this post more:

vote Xite

for parts like these:

That's right, he is bussing so frickin bad that I feel he should just admit it at this point.
seriously, how did no one else catch that?
By the way, I call it bussing because the case sucks and he's attacking so violently so that later he can go look at me guys, I caught scum, that means I'm town.
In case people can't think for themselves

The case sucks. So that must mean both the accused and the accuser are scum, right? Oh, and why would they bus? I see no motivations. Then, might there be a scenario where one of them is town, or where both of them are town? And would such a scenario be more likely then the scenario you proposed?

I think so. I'm sorry xite, but I think you are scum that just loves to apply pressure to both sides, while there isn't a good reason to do so.

Oh, by the way, Wraith is also scum.
There are so many textbook tells in just that post. Just sayin.

The nonchalance is fake. Why did you do it? I guess to make your point (correct me if I'm wrong). You say there are tells in that post, but you don't point them out. I believe you didn't point them out because they weren't there and trying to brew tells out of that post would make your point seem weak.

Because it's not what I know, it's what I can convince everyone else

. What I know is my role. What I don't know is anyone else's roles. I hate to have to be teaching Mafia 101 to you, but I guess that's where we're at.

The town are not going to allow my lynching of UAscum. They, for some reason, do not as a collective suspect him yet. When you flip scum, though, they'll begin to see that I was right. Actually, maybe not, because UA will kill me in the night.

Point yourself out, then dana. You are obvscum, as is reflected by the votecount.

Everyone, quick follow my lead!
*Facepalm*
Now that that's over, bolded is an obvscumslip, Frank, maybe you should go take that class before you try to teach it
That second line is a steaming pile of AtE and should be treated as no more than that.
Votecount rarely has anything to do with it until a couple flips.

First, you should love emotions, not hate them.

Second, the bolded part shows how you were searching the thread. If you were scumhunting, you could have seen that part as made by town and by scum, and it wouldn't have caught your eye. But if you were looking to make a case on Furcolow, in stead of hunting scum, that bolded part can easily be twisted into a scumslip.

FoS Xite

Wicked is town. He made by far the best post in this game till now.

Esspecially these parts were good:

I think that both Danakillsu and Furcolow are both town. Furcolow in particular, because I get the impression that he's trying to impress the town which is a strong town tell imo. The two main things that give me this impression are his bad metaphors + his confidence in his reads. Danakillsu also looks like town, because of his reaction to the attack from Furcolow. I agree that their posts are illogical, but I disagree that they are scum.

Mysterio:

First he votes JDodge for being so confident in his read on Danakillsu, but then later decides the case against Danakillsu was good (the case consisted of things that had happened before Mysterio voted JDodge). He looks like opportunistic scum. If the case against Danakillsu was really that good, then why did he vote JDodge after it happened before he eventually switched to Dana?

Vote: Mysterio

Read it back, completely correct: VOTE: Mysterio

[flinter]

And the reason I still have no real stance between who's Scum or Town is because it's only been a day since the game started, last I checked 1/4 of the players still haven't checked in past the confirmation stage, and it's really hard to not tunnel on the most prolific players of the game, which most seem to be doing. Someone said we need to utilize all the time we have and they are absolutely right. With 24 players, we have a lot of scum to catch, and a lot of time to do it.

Apart from the first part of the post, that I didn't quote, this is good posting. For someone who selfvotes in his first post, this is a surprising well-reasoned post. I agree with everything in this quote.

hiphop is clearly looking better then Wraith, who is too eager to tell everybody that he had "reasons" to join a wagon. Everybody can make up excuses to join a wagon.

[flinter]

@ flinter
It seems to me you're telling me not to make posts of my impressions or testosterone-fueled posts, or whatever, but your impression of what is backing my posts is making you ignore their actual content. I think I've done a good job of showing Furc to be scum, but you are refusing to deal with the actual meat of my case against him. And I find it hard to believe that you are advising me to take this game more seriously. The only post that wasn't serious was my first.

HoS: Hiphop

Do you really not care at all about this game?

I didn't find their actual content to be that great, so I didn't comment on them. And that first post started your bandwagon, right? I'm just trying to help you for your next game.

5) Oh, was I really searching the thread? It couldn't have been that maybe while I was reading through I noticed scummy things? No not at all

I wonder, did you ever hear about sarcasm being a standard scumtell? (esspecially when you are accused of something scummy?)

6) Wait, didn't you just vote me in that same post somewhere?

yes I did at the beginning. I forgot to delete it as a I read wicked's post and decided I liked a mysterio vote better.

WARNING: L-2

I strongly suggest we take a look at the people defending or buddying dana before we lynch. If we do in fact mislynch I'm not confident there's enough material here to find scum Day 2.

Wraith, would you be so kind to start the investigation on a few other players, so that we will have enough "material"?

Because this was just an empty post.

[flinter]

flinter's beginning to raise my suspicions. First the bad points against Xite and now he has completely ignored Mysterio's defense of my point against him. It's like either he wants to sit back and watch me decide the next move or he isn't paying attention to the person he's voting for.

It is the last, I wasn't really paying attention. Mysterio's post didn't seem to answer the opportunism. And I'm a she

Investigation

The reasons I followed:

Mysterio:

First he votes JDodge for being so confident in his read on Danakillsu, but then later decides the case against Danakillsu was good (the case consisted of things that had happened before Mysterio voted JDodge). He looks like opportunistic scum. If the case against Danakillsu was really that good, then why did he vote JDodge after it happened before he eventually switched to Dana?

Vote: Mysterio

The facts

Unvote

Vote: JDodge

Way too sure of his reads this early in the game when half the players haven't even posted yet.

@dana, what specifically has Frank done to make you think he is scum? So far, I've only gathered an OMGUS vote and you complaining that he might be making a weak case against you (hint: it's not weak). These are not scum tells, that is simply you pissed off at the notion that someone wants you lynched.

Also, I still don't understand how anyone can be so sure of a read this early in the game. It could very well be possible that dana is just playing terribly, you can't know for sure. To act as if it's an open and shut case and we should lynch a few pages after the game started is ridiculous. Both JDodge and now Frank are guilty of this.

Thank you for saying my case isn't weak. You flip-flop on this somewhat by discrediting it for being early on in the game.

Not at all. I said your case wasn't weak, not that dana is sure fire scum, which is what you've continuously implied in your posts. He is indeed the scummiest player

so far

, which is why I wanted to give him a chance to explain his weak scumhunting case against you. Having said that...

@ Mysterio
I could understand if you didn't read the thread, but if you did...what? How can you not know what Furc has done? The very first post I made in our argument lays it out clearly. His posts have been full of self-contradictions, confusing/invalid logic, and assumptions used as proof. He wants UA lynched more but is voting for me, for instance. And he wants the day to end ASAP judging by the nature of his posts.

This is a completely worthless reply. I asked you to explain yourself, not just repeat your claims. I saw no contradictions in his posts, and everything else you've just repeated is exactly what I already categorized as you thinking Frank has a weak case against you. Even if I were to accept your claims 100%, at worst it simply means Frank is wrong about you. It does NOT, however, mean that he is scummy. That is something you've failed to make a valid case for.

As it happens, you've neither shown that Frank is wrong or explained how he is scummy. As such, I'll go ahead and

Unvote

,

Vote: dana

.

Now, the first quote of Mysterio is his second vote. As I read it, it wasn't intended to be random, but the vote on Jdodge is bad. In the second post, he pulls the breaks on the Dana wagon. It's going too fast, people are too confident.

And suddenly, by the next post, when Frank mentions that Mysterio gives off a mixed signal, he follows the largest bandwagon. That is opportunism.

Now, his defensive post in no way answers the problem that Mysterio went from "he isn't surefire scum and he might be a terrible player" to "vote Dana". I don't really care about "the case that he agreed with", I care about his switch in thoughts about how the game should be played day 1 (from opposing to joining the bandwagon)

[flinter]

Are you deliberately ignoring dana's reply to me which caused me to vote for him, or are you just hoping no one notices it?

Does that change anything about your idea that we should end the game too soon, and we should be too confident?

I fail to see how anything dana says should change your opinion about how fast a lynch should go in general.

[flinter]

Are you deliberately ignoring dana's reply to me which caused me to vote for him, or are you just hoping no one notices it?

Does that change anything about your idea that we should end the game too soon, and we should be too confident?

I fail to see how anything dana says should change your opinion about how fast a lynch should go

in general.

Is this a serious question? Of course my opinion on a fast lynch will change depending on how scummy the suspected player acts. I gave him a chance to explain himself and also make a case against Frank. He did neither. Why would I not vote for him at that point?

Bolded what you forgot.

and taking your quote again:

Also, I still don't understand how anyone can be so sure of a read this early in the game. It could very well be possible that dana is just playing terribly, you can't know for sure. To act as if it's an open and shut case and we should lynch a few pages after the game started is ridiculous. Both JDodge and now Frank are guilty of this.

sometimes you don't want a lynch because it is too early, or because the scumhunting has been mostly on one person and you'd like to investigate others. Such a stance we see in the above quote.

Pre-view edit: Wicked, I find opportunism to be a more accurate tell then "contradictions".

[flinter]

Stopped my re-read to say I don't buy the cop claim. I can say I bread-crumbed Compulsive Self-Voter (Survivor), but that doesn't mean that I am one.

Back to reading.

God I hate this game.

I have to agree with you again. It is that I had a townread on Dana before all this happened, but I don't like the claim. A breadcrumb is practically useless as soon as you get in trouble.

If this claim is indeed fake, and there is a cop around, I would ask him not to counterclaim. It wouldn't make sense as dana wouldn't be the most valuable scum, and the cop could do some major damage to the scumteam in a large game (he stays alive for longer, and might save up a few results).

Does anybody know if the mod is known for using cops?

[flinter]

Also, on the votes coming onto me, whatever. I know I'm town, and I've been attempting to post better. All you all by voting me is going to increase my spam/one liners and decrease my ability to scumhunt and be offensive because you'll be putting me on the defensive.

I'm a better candidate because you're scum seeking a mislynch, porochaz
Since dana will surely not be lynched because people are gullible

unvote

I'm going to

vote porochaz

for being suspicious of someone I know is town (myself!)

I guess it's OMGUS, but I really don't give a shit. Porochaz hasn't contributed at all this game in comparison to me, so he is a much better lynch than myself.

It is a strange world, that OMGUS is only percieved as bad because others vote you for it. OMGUS is quite unproductive. In this case, multiple people have expressed doubts about you, and you pick the one voting for you, which happens to be the towniest of the bunch. The "Porochaz hasn't contributed at all this game in comparison to me" is in my opinion a lie. Furcolow, your contributions have been on a very small portion of the game, and 80% of your posts are about Dana. This OMGUS is a bad one, I'd like you to unvote and reread the thread.

@ Wickedest
The purpose is showing that you knew what you would claim beforehand, leaving three possibilities.
1. You are scum who limited himself to one claim.
2. You are who you claimed to be.
3. You are scum with a fakeclaim.
3 doesn't make any sense, so that means I have shown that I am one of the first two things. It doesn't make it a ton more likely, but it does make it somewhat more likely that I am telling the truth. Any suggestions on whom I should target tonight if we lynch Furcolow? I will not tell you who I am actually going to target until D2, but I would like some suggestions.
Furcolow's bizzare speculation that scum probably have more than 1 kill is very scummy.

Dana, you cleverly avoid mentioning point 1. Scum pretending to be a cop would worry if he would be believed. A town cop should be worried about how he is about to be killed at night.

Town really has very little incentive to "prove" that his claim is truthfull. Scum does.

If this claim is indeed fake, and there is a cop around, I would ask him not to counterclaim. It wouldn't make sense as dana wouldn't be the most valuable scum, and the cop could do some major damage to the scumteam in a large game (he stays alive for longer, and might save up a few results).

Does anybody know if the mod is known for using cops?

First bit: I'm debating coming after you based on some meta-type ideas I recently saw.

This is a dumb question. It doesn't matter if he is or not because he could or could not be here.

Sorry xite, could you explain what meta-type ideas you are talking about? As far as I know, we haven't played together.

I didn't think the question was dumb. If the mod hates the cop, and won't use it in his setup (I'm certain I read about someone who wouldn't), we would have one caught scum. If not, nothing would be lost.

idk, I don't get why Wraith is pushing us to vig Frank so much, makes Frank look scummy and makes Wraith looks scum even after flipping Frank.
I'm going to post my opinion (OMG I'M POSTING SOMETHING?!)
I believe Wraith is scum by his current action. He knows that no one will follow his plan to lynch himself, so he going to try and stop Frank lynch, which he knows he can't, so when Frank is flip and shows townie (assuming that he is townie), everyone will lean that Wraith is townie. This would only work if Wraith is mafia because he knows who is townie and who is his scumbuddy.
I'm more then sure I was thinking more, but it seem that I can't remember is, but thats the jest of it.
Like I said in my first post, I will only post if I am more then sure the person is scum, and this is what I believe in.

Vote Wraith

why is your post full of excuses? You don't knoooow, and you wanted to say more but you forgooot, and oh yes, you are quite certian he is scum.

This seems like a "I have to vote but I haven't yet found a scummy player to savely vote on" post. The vote is at the end of this post to help the mod find it.

I think posting a list of who you think is aligned where is seriously one of the worst moves you could possibly do on this site. Seriously, are you just coaching your scum buddies for if/when you get lynched today, so they know who you'd like to focus on after you're gone? Or are you that dumb of a townie that you're giving scum everything to make their strategy with?

Vote Singer

. Sorry singer, but this post makes no sense unless you are trying to keep the pressure on Furcolow. Are you really going to comment on every post of Furcolow and say it is scummy, while you ignore the rest of the game?

FoS Bunnylover

. the bunny's saved you

[flinter]

why does everybody call me stupid?

@ Flinter
That is a really dumb statement. What do you mean only scum would care about supporting his claim? What good would I do to the town as a cop if no one believed I was a cop?

In this game, scum's main goal is to appear towny. Townies goal is to find scum. Making a breadcrumb is a good example of trying to be seen as town (scummy), while not claiming d1 and hoping you would get a result is townie.

[flinter]

Uh...really? Not claiming D1 would be townie? Getting lynch as a cop because I didn't claim D1 would be pro-town? I think not. Everyone, including townies, wants to look townie. You can't do much good for the town if everyone thinks you're scum. And I didn't call you stupid, I called your statement dumb. I'm not stupid and I say stupid things once in a while. Would link you to one, but it's ongoing

please dana, don't twist my words. I said trying to appear towny, for example by "breadcrumb's" is a more natural thing for scum to do, as they are more concerned with appearances.

And even when everybody thinks you are scum, you can make cases, find scumslips, everything. Trying to play as a towny, while you actually are a towny, seems to be a contradiction

[flinter]

Let's put this another way, shall we? You are a human. You do some things to seem more human sometimes. You wouldn't want people calling you inhuman for your behavior. Just because you do things to seem more like a human like combing your hair or putting on deodorant doesn't mean you are not in fact human.

and if I was someone trying to blend in, I would tell them I used deodorant that morning (in stead of just talking about the weather like everybody else)

so, why again did you breadcrumb?

Porochaz above post is a good one.

[flinter]

2nd - we almost lynched a "cop" if he was telling the truth, now we have an admitted nilla townie. Tbqh if I had to choose lynch nilla or scumhunt more and risk exposing another pr, I'd say go with frank.

strange reasoning. I don't know why a townie would ever accept lynching another townie. I don't like the Furcolow wagon at all.

[flinter]

Im conflicted.
Dana posted that he actually read someone, who just so happened to die, and got innocent.
I just don't believe it x_x.
I can somewhat understand the no role block.
I can not believe that you would search the one person mafia targeted to kill, especially since you just posted that Wraith should be lynch and you would lynch him any day of the week. Why didn't you invisitigate Wraith if you wanted him to die? Why DavidParker when their were more people who were suspicious?
Confused and conflicted is what I am.

while the post is decent, it lacks a vote, and sadly bunny seems to be very hesitating on this subject. While in his arguments, everything points to Dana being scum. Now I wonder, what would cause this hesitation.

This could be because Bunny doesn't really know if he should bus. This could be because bunny doesn't know if it is wise to try to mislynch a cop, but I can't really see this post coming from a townie. I could certainly see a Dana-Bunny scumpair (ironically Dana is likely scum for the reasons Bunny gives.

VOTE: Bunnylover

[flinter]

Flinter... you're an idiot. I think dana is scummy, too, but I'm waiting to see what happens. Also there are ways to explain why dana targetted DP. Like maybe, he was being told to? Remember that? Also, it makes sense that scum would try to kill one of them, and dana was the more likely to get doc'd. Think a little guys

I voted Bunnylover, not dana, for the reasons given above.

[flinter]

It's a clear sign you need a reread when you see Mysterio's name popping up, and think: "Hey, wasn't that the player on top of my scumlist yesterday?"

[flinter]

I was paying attention, I promis. But during the end of day 1, real life became quite busy and I didn't find the time to play well here. I won't make posts if I don't think they add anything to the game. In that ime I forgot most of my reads.

It will get better now.

[flinter]

5) Kise
6) Wickedestjr
10) Shanba
11) Seth Gorrad
13) ConfidAnon
16) Porochaz
23) Reck

One of these, I think. Seen their play, all these would normally stay in the game long. If any of them proves to be scum, you made it easier for town, with the amount of easy lynches around. If you find a town, you might have a bigger chance you;ll find a decent scumhunter that might lead the way to victory (together with a suitable protector )

[flinter]

Seen their play, all these would normally stay in the game long.

What do you define as "play that normally stays in the game longer"? And do you mean on town's terms or scum's terms? Those are two very different game plays, since one could get you lynched during the day, and the other could get you NKed, and very dangerous to bring up since it only invokes a whole lot of WIFOM.

These are either players that aren't noticed a lot, or players that seem to be quite experienced and probably are aware of the things to come, rather then that they are playing a short-term game. Mostly the less aggressive players. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few scum there.

[flinter]

Flinter, are you honestly suggesting we lynch one of the more experienced players solely on the fact that they're an experienced player? Protip: Experienced townies are usually a lot better than newbies. Sure, experienced scum are often a lot better than newbie scum, but the odds are that there's going to be a lot more experienced town than experienced scum, and experienced town can catch experienced scum. Lynching based on experience is a, to be honest, shitty way of narrowing down who to lynch. Especially early game.

Lol, no. Dana asked who she should investigate, those were my answers. If you catch experienced scum that way, you've lost a big problem. If you confirm experienced town that way, the positive effect is much bigger then that you would have confirmed an unexperienced player.

[flinter]

I am going to try to make this readable.

Dana's early play (around UA) is weird. Would anyone, by chance, have a scumgame from dana for me?

I seriously doubt that Dana and Wraith would be scum together, seen the early game.

I think it is highly unlikely that Nhammen and UA are scum together

215 by wicked convinces me again. He is right in calling mysterio opportunistic. VOTE: mysterio

Or rather, newb Town says this person has done such and such actions, which could be scummy, but it isn't good enough for a vote. The only comments Bunny has done were saying that the arguments between dana and furc meant nothing. That could still be newb Town... I'm not sure.

On the other hand, Bunny has only been refusing to comment. hiphop has been both refusing to comment and using opportunistic votes. And, while I would like to see some Wraith pressure, nobody else seems to agree, so
[uvnote]Wraith[/unvote]
VOTE: hiphop

after the danawagon has disappeared, scum isn't going to start a new wagon on their buddy. Seen earlier votes on hiphop, this might be scum trying to give that bandwagon momentum.


This should help you a bit. I'm now halfway, and after I finish tomorrow, I'll pick out a few players that I'd like to give more attention.

[flinter]

I'm not going to follow you now, Shanba apparently we disagree about Porochaz

[flinter]

I think it is highly unlikely that Nhammen and UA are scum together

Why?

just follow the link UA used small text, Nhammen found this. As far as I know, this is almost always prohibited: and setting your buddy up for problems with the mod (if you have the choice) is hardly something scum would do.

215 by wicked convinces me again. He is right in calling mysterio opportunistic. VOTE: mysterio

Do you think Mysterio is the only opportunistic player in the game?

no. Hiphop has been opportunistic, however he doesn't hide it. Wraith has had its opportunism. Several people went on the Dana wagon, which might qualify as opportunistic, however there were good reasons for that. The same with the Frank lynch: I can totally see people voting as they did as town. Mysterio's was early game. His abusing the "lets not lynch too quickly" to look town, but hopping on the wagon afterwards is malevolent. Which is why I vote him, in stead of another.

Flinter has voted for mysterio as anticipated.

You've read my mind.

Vote: Flinter

I get the impression that either she is very careless about her vote or is bussing her buddy Mysterio:

1. She catches up and brings up lots of points against dana and Xite, yet votes Mysterio for one point that I brought up. That seems kind of strange to me.
2. After voting Mysterio it seemed like she didn't care about what he said and wanted to watch me argue with him instead, because she completely ignored his defense.
3. I pointed out point #2 in the thread, and she said that it was because she wasn't paying attention to the person who she was voting for which looks very opportunistic. In addition, she said that Mysterio hadn't defended against the opportunism point yet doesn't directly say anything to Mysterio. It is completely obvious that she doesn't care about her vote on him.

I'm sorry? Dana is actually one of my town reads (it is a gutread, so I know it isn't worth anything here). I suspect bunny who was wishy washy about Dana. This while logically, bunny's arguments made sense.

And I "ignored" Mysterio's defense, because it in no way adressed his change from "lets stay calm!" to "BANDWAGON!!!". Which is why my vote has been on him the rest of day 1. A revote was far from surprising.

[flinter]

I'm not liking Singers 386, knowing Frank was town. It is a hop on the wagon, and nothing more. Xite already commented on it that this was singers first real "new" stuff, and it isn't impressive.

Bunny's 414, carrying an excuse for posting something (on wraith). Further, he already starts to argue from the point where Frank will flip town.

FoS bunny

Recks 464 is an "I stay off the wagon" post. Seen the end of the Frank wagon, not at all towny. (esspecially as his post doesn't contain any other comment on the game)

Any suggestions on whom I should target tonight if we lynch Furcolow? I will not tell you who I am actually going to target until D2, but I would like some suggestions.


Hmmm... Wraith, hiphop, or Bunnylover are my suggestions.

I'm having some problems with Robbnva's acceptence of a mislynch. Though it is mostly antitown, and not scummy, if I had to guess now.

unvote:
vote: bunnylover

you are bandwagonning scum

Most of your opinions are voided when you flip scum .

I'm confused how this is ever a defense against bandwagonning while there hasn't been a flip.

Furcolow might very well have been right here, seen bunny's defense. Bunny didn't have to worry about it at that point, as Furcolow was under heavy suspicion. But he basically admits it happened.

DAVIDPARKER, AAAHAHHHHHAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Why, DP, why? Seriously. You're willing to put yourself under suspicion on D1?? You are the worst player I've ever seen on this site. EVER. If you were smart (and your claim is in fact accurate), you'd've kept your claim to yourself, investigated dana tonight, and then see what you came up with tomorrow. That way you wouldn't have to out yourself. We have time to make a couple mistakes, but only if our PR's don't commit suicide every damn second. Now, for all we know, everything you say is a load of BULL.

Ugh...wth...

For what it is worth, Singer did believe the scenario where DP was saying the truth to be a possibility. On the other hand, Porochaz his read was accurate in not believing the claim.

Wraith would never have shot DP. His read of DP is so accurate in 635, he is so convinced if there is a cop, that it is dana, that I don't see a scumteam with wraith in it killing DP. Bunny follows wraith. I think I'll leave Bunny on my "Neutral" list.

One thing I did notice day 1: there are actually very little people that a lot of players have commented on. The furcolow and dana bandwagons pushed most of the rest away.

[flinter]

seen earlier and more recent posts, there is absolutely no way I'm going to support a wraith lynch. He plays like a newby town that gets wagonned. Further, his bandwagon is too obviously a continuation of yesterday. Scum will have talked about their possible mislynch targets, and without doubt Wraith was top of the list. Now they only have to finish it and make sure they aren't too scummy for joining the wagon (or staying off it)

[flinter]

@wicked

You seem to be under the impression that I use my vote to investigate. I don't. Once I think someone is scum, I vote him/her, and that is that. I'm going to investigate further, but not specifically on that person.

There are reasons for that (mostly to avoid tunneling and to avoid townies being pressured into mistakes), but anyway, as long as I am scumhunting, you should have such problems with who I'm looking at.

@Xite. Your idea about the Dana-scum theory is nice. He would expect david to investigate him, etc. He would know he himself was fake, and that's why scum wouldn't target dana. Good one

About Xite. You just became more protown (although the role is possible as scum. However, in a game where only the kill on DP remotely makes sense as vig, I doubt it). Scum would never fake this.

[flinter]

the "I don't use my vote to investigate" was part of my answer. And yes, that means it is technically for the lynch (though there are a few others I would lynch without problems).

Why misterio and not xite, while there were more points on xite? Seen the way Xite plays, you'll always find a lot of points against him. You'll have to see how serious they were to make a choice between him and some other. I think a lynch on mysterio has a greater chance to be on scum then xite.

[flinter]

@xite. I know it was slightly different from your theory, but this had the same information and the same conclusion. I thanked you for getting that idea. There was no sarcasm.

@wicked. I'm pretty sure that I don't understand what you want from me. I'll try another time to respond at it, but in case this doesn't answer it, please don't requote that piece of text, but ask direct questions. It is not my habit to continue to attack someone I'm already voting for. I think this tactic to be very good at achieving mislynches on players that are less good at arguing and playing the game. I'd rather observe, and scumhunt. I don't like tunneling, and for me (and the person which I would be accusing) it is totally ruining the game. That person would have to defend every pointless point I brought up, and I would be focussing on one player, while we are playing with so many.

wait, wicked, is it your problem that you don't see what I'm thinking? As my vote seems to switch in an unnatural way to you? In that case, a scumlist from me would help, right?

[flinter]

1. When you switched your vote from Mysterio to Singersigner day 1, was that because you found her more suspicious at that time?

I think this tactic to be very good at achieving mislynches on players that are less good at arguing and playing the game. I'd rather observe, and scumhunt.

2. Then why did you originally say that you didn't respond to Mysterio's defense because it didn't address your points?
3. Can you link me to a game where you were town and played like this?

wait, wicked, is it your problem that you don't see what I'm thinking? As my vote seems to switch in an unnatural way to you? In that case, a scumlist from me would help, right?

A scumlist would help.

1. I think it was mostly that it caught my attention.
2. Because that is the truth? It didn't address my points. I didn't unvote. It addressed yours. You did unvote.

3 and the 4th are coming tomorrow, I promise

[flinter]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 52&t=13655

I have only one completed game here, and I was scum here. I'm sorry, but this is all you get.

Scumlist:

Mysterio: gave my reasons already
Reckoner: he keeps coming with excuses. Further, his vote on Frank was quite terrible, and his vote on day 2 is on dana, because he investigated a death player. (dana was told to do that). His vote is still there.
Singer: Again, I already gave my reasons.
Bunnylover: Already told you why I suspect him.

Gorrad is quite special on this moment. I'm not fond of his aggressive rallying for the wraith lynch. It feels like he is overdoing it. Regardless of allignment, he is playing it. I don't yet know if this is with town intentions.
In the same catagory is Shanba. I'm not fond of his play, but I can't yet put the finger on it why he is scum. These two are at the bottom of my scumlist. I want to keep an eye on them.

[flinter]

@flinter, explain why you're voting for me and not bussing your buddy Wraith. You'll get a lot more town points that way.

Since the answer on this question can already be found in thread (I have already told you why I think you are scum). Further, I have stated I don't believe the wraith wagon is accurate.

So, this question only has one purpose: to show that Mysterio is thinking about a Wraith-Flinter scumteam without actually saying it. I like my town players when they don't hide their opinions. Why this "question"?

[flinter]

You have no reasoning whatsoever. What little parroted reasoning you had Day 1 was immediately shot down, hence why you didn't respond to it and ended up switching your vote to singersigner. Now you're claiming that my response didn't convince you and so you've voted me again (parroting Shanba this time). Start bussing and earn yourself some townie points, please.

My reasoning never was shot down

and if you have something against me, vote. Be a man and state what you think and why you think it, don't use these subjective posts.

[flinter]

flinter, you have ignored this question:

What was the purpose of your vote for singersigner?

I have only one completed game here, and I was scum here. I'm sorry, but this is all you get.

Umm... you were town in the game that you linked. Regarding the meta, you play much differently there than you do here and don't use the strategy that you claim to use whenever you are town. You said that you don't respond to the defenses from other players, yet did this a lot in the game you linked.

I answered the first. It was on that moment the person I was most interested in. I probably have reasons there.

And don't twist my words. I dislike tunneling. I don't know if it was that game, but I think there has been only one person I ever tunneled on and in that game I was scum. You'll also see that I didn't ever react to a defense on someone elses points (if that defense was sound). Mysterio's defense against your case was fine. Meaning I won't comment on it. Seems normal, right?

@flinter, explain why you're voting for me and not bussing your buddy Wraith. You'll get a lot more town points that way.

Earlier you said my vote had no chance,

yet now you are saying that you also suspect flinter

, so why do you have a problem with my vote?

@wickedest,

I am NOT voting for flinter

. She is probably scum just from her play, but Wraith is by far the scummiest player I have ever seen in a game. No one claiming he is town has given any reasons for it except "gut". Well guess what? I don't give a crap about your gut reads. What is the pro-town result of keeping Wraith alive if indeed you somehow believe he's town? He is a scummy distraction with nothing useful to add. Do you want him at LyLo? Because I sure as hell don't.

Traditional scumplay. Defending by "subtily" changing the accusation. Classic strawman, I bolded it for you. Then the fact that he wants a wraith lynch even if he is town seals it for me.

confirm vote Mysterio

[flinter]

Gorrad and Robbvna have been using more and more circuitous logic in their case against me, culminating in:

going off what gorrad said, trying to get town points would be the same as trying to look town, which is scummy

According to this, everyone is scum, because scumhunting can be classified as "trying to look town." As well as "trying to get lynched." For all you know I'm a Jester. "As well as defending oneself" because apparently town don't do that.

Wraith, snap out of it. I want 2 cases on your biggest suspects. By saturday. This doesn't help anyone.

[flinter]

EBWOP:

and if you are going to get lynched, make sure that you have created enough information that you'll pull scum with you in death. You aren't doing that right now.

[flinter]

Hey flinter, stop coaching Wraith and just bus him please.

Vote mysterio, the strawmanning scumbag.

[flinter]

Xite, did you even read what Wickeds question was? Why Mysterio had a problem with his vote. Mysterio completely avoids this question and in stead goes on about Wraith.

[flinter]

Vote: Wraith

Vote: Wraith

You vote without giving a reason?

Also I have a question for you, how do you feel my play here compares to my play in the game you are modding where I got lynched?

I am biased obviously

@Robb, it's still ongoing.

And Reck, who acts like he totally can't keep up with the game votes, and then avoids the question to the reasoning of the vote.

[flinter]

And don't twist my words. I dislike tunneling. I don't know if it was that game, but I think there has been only one person I ever tunneled on and in that game I was scum. You'll also see that I didn't ever react to a defense on someone elses points (if that defense was sound). Mysterio's defense against your case was fine. Meaning I won't comment on it. Seems normal, right?

First of all, you were town in the game that you linked for me. Secondly, if Mysterio's defense was fine, then why did you say it didn't address all the points?

I know I was town there. The only time I

did

tunnel was as scum. Mysterio defended against you properly, but didn't explain his opportunism.

Wicked, you can't convince me that I'm scum, and seemingly I can't convince you that I'm not. In case you are confident that I'm scum, could you stop asking me questions, and start convincing others? You are arguing with your suspect here, and it doesn't help you at all. Neither does it help me, as we are going over the same points over and over again.

[flinter]

In other news, I'm prodding Bunnylover and mysterio.

typical. Mysterio gets under pressure, Mysterio disappears.

Just compare it to Wraith. The more he gets under pressure, the more he posts. If he could just manage to produce a little more interesting things...

[flinter]

In other news, I'm prodding Bunnylover and mysterio.

typical. Mysterio gets under pressure, Mysterio disappears.

Just compare it to Wraith. The more he gets under pressure, the more he posts. If he could just manage to produce a little more interesting things...

Of course a person will post more the more pressure people put on top of him/her, they would want to prove that they aren't scum and convince us that they are townie.

Bunny, people don't work that way. Lurking works because you don't get much attention and people then won't vote you. Posting more while under a lot of pressure will only fuel the people tunneling on you.

[flinter]

what is suprising after this night is that nothing has changed. We have another dead mafia. One would expect that one would investigate what new suspects this would give.
Further, we have this info:

Inno on Xite was my result. I didn't investigate Wraith because I figured it would be too obvious and scum might be able to affect it somehow (like a lawyer or framer). So I wish to lynch Wraith like we should have yesterday.

vote: Wraith

Xite was already one of the more protown players, but he was attacked anyway. Now with the confirmation that he is innocent, it would be wise to see what the motivations of Xite's attackers were.


But what do we see?

The following people were on all wagons:

Singersigner, Wraith, hiphop

The following people were on no wagons:

Eek, Kise

I can see the Mysterio wagon as NOTHING but scum trying to bail out one of their own. He's been on all three wagons, he's actively detracted from the town, and it's high time he finally bit it.

Vote: Wraith

Also: I apologize for being inactive the last few days of D2. My power cable overheated and broke.

No mention of benmage-scum. Just a simple continuation of what he has said yesterday. Plus that the argument he uses is a bad one. As long as there were two wagons the previous day, one could always use this argument to make a continuation of the previous idea. Nothing says that one of the wagons had to be on scum.

Vote: Porochaz

Even better. Check out Benmage's 15 and 20. Plus my case from yesterday. Wraith is still a poor lynch.

Shanba found two posts where Benmage defended porochaz. This isn't at all convincing.

So I have a question, if mafia had a role blocker what would the reason be they did not block Dana? Dana the cop and the only outed PR would have to be mafia's play night 1, yet Dana got a result. This just strikes me as odd

unvote

just need to figure things out.

This, although Robbnva is certainly not high on my townlist, is a good post. If dana is scum, Robbnva certainly isn't.


It could be possible that yesterday Dana didn't actually get a pm (his target died), but today he clearly got a result. To scum, not a single role is more problematic for their chances. It would have been easy to pick who to RB this night.

Vote Dana

From a scum point of view, yes it is smart to kill the person who has a history of fake-claiming.
Why? Look how things are playing out.
Do I get why Dana is been allowed to invistigate? A little. In my eyes its more suspicious for a claimed cop to be allowed to investigate then to have him obviously roleblocked.
How would his counter claim be called out in D2 if no one believed DP claimed?

And here we have bunnylover explaining (his) scumkills.

FoS bunny

[flinter]

[quote"flinter"]Read it back, completely correct: VOTE: Mysterio

Wait so... You make two long posts attacking dana almost entirely and then end by quoting somebody else and saying you agree then going with that vote? LOLOLOLOLOLOL I smell coaching.

FoS: flinter[/quote]

you are so obsessed with the size of things.

But I agree with enough of your points there to think you are town.

[flinter]

Wraith [5] (Gorrad, Mysterio, Hiphop, Benmage, Xite)
Mysterio [5] (Flinter, Singersigner, danakillsu, Rob, @.@)

Gorrad, I have to admit: the start of the Mysterio wagon is far from great. On the other hand, with Hiphop and Benmage staying on the Dana wagon isn't great either.

but two votecounts further:

Wraith [8] (Gorrad, Mysterio, Hiphop, Benmage, Xite, ConfidAnon, danakillsu, Rob)
Mysterio [3] (Flinter, Singersigner, @.@)

So contrary to Gorrad, I think we had two wagons on town yesterday.

Votecount 2.13

Wraith [7] (Gorrad, Mysterio, Benmage, ConfidAnon, danakillsu, Rob, Bunnylover)

Mysterio [5] (Flinter, Singersigner, @.@, Wraith, hiphop)

On this moment, after Xite made public, dana and Rob switched back fast. Hiphop switched the wrong way (he went from Wraith to mysterio when the Wraith wagon was actually leading), which is supporting Gorrad's theory. If wraith is scum, you want to take a good look at hiphop.

Votecount 2.14

Wraith [7] (Gorrad, Mysterio, Benmage, ConfidAnon, danakillsu, Bunnylover, Reck)

Mysterio [5] (Flinter, Singersigner, @.@, Wraith, hiphop)

and rob hops off, Reck hops on. However, rob moves to the porochaz wagon. So he isn't as likely a buddy of wraith like hiphop is.

Votecount 2.18

Wraith [8] (Gorrad, Mysterio, Benmage, Antihero, danakillsu, Bunnylover, DemonHybrid, Rob)
Mysterio [8] (Flinter, Singersigner, @.@, hiphop, Wickedestjr, Shanba, Lowell, Wraith)

Rob went back, with the Mysterio wagon getting up to speed because of Wicked (town), Shanba and Lowell. If wraith is scum, Rob is town.

Seen that the major chance was with the votes of Wicked, Shanba and lowell, I have trouble with Gorrad's theory that it was a scum counterwagon. Both wagons had their share of scummy players, but mostly at the start of the wagons.

Votecount 2.19

Mysterio [11] (Flinter, Singersigner, @.@, hiphop, Wickedestjr, Shanba, Lowell, Wraith, UltimaAvalon, Rob, Bunnylover)

Wraith [8] (Gorrad, Mysterio, Benmage, Antihero, danakillsu, DemonHybrid)

And rob Bunny and UA finish it. Seen rob's earlier choice for wraith, he can't be scum with Wraith. He isn't supporting a counterwagon then.

[flinter]

Wanna know why it was scum trying to bail out their own? Because never ONCE did someone ask Mysterio for a claim. If I was, hypothetically, on that wagon and it reached that L-1 without anyone so much as mentioning a claim, I would have bailed so he'd have a chance to. If I hadn't had a blown power cable, I would have brought it up too.

The fact that we can see Mysterio flipped doctor makes this an easy argument. I'm sorry that I forgot to ask (and I had no excuse for not being here). I would also not have believed the claim. Seen the game at the end, the deadline was used as an excuse to get a quick bandwagon. If scum tried to save wraith this way, it would have to be one of the 2 or 3 at the end. Who do you suspect to be Wraiths scumbuddy (and why didn't you use this approach before, but simply went on tunneling on Wraith?)

[flinter]

1) No mention of benmage-scum. Just a simple continuation of what he has said yesterday. Plus that the argument he uses is a bad one. As long as there were two wagons the previous day, one could always use this argument to make a continuation of the previous idea. Nothing says that one of the wagons had to be on scum.

So I have a question, if mafia had a role blocker what would the reason be they did not block Dana? Dana the cop and the only outed PR would have to be mafia's play night 1, yet Dana got a result. This just strikes me as odd

unvote

just need to figure things out.

2) This, although Robbnva is certainly not high on my townlist, is a good post. If dana is scum, Robbnva certainly isn't.

From a scum point of view, yes it is smart to kill the person who has a history of fake-claiming.
Why? Look how things are playing out.
Do I get why Dana is been allowed to invistigate? A little. In my eyes its more suspicious for a claimed cop to be allowed to investigate then to have him obviously roleblocked.
How would his counter claim be called out in D2 if no one believed DP claimed?

3) And here we have bunnylover explaining (his) scumkills.

FoS bunny

1) Please tell me this is an attack. I'd really like a good laugh.
2) How is it a good post exactly? How the hell did you come to that conclusion? Although I do see that if Robbie's scum, dana probably isn't, I can't so much figure the other way around. How are you so sure?
3) Uhm what? No, what that was was bunny playing the WIFOM game. Which we ALL have (and kind of need to stop)

1) I assume you are talking about the first part of the post. Not everything is an attack. I just hope some people would play more protown.
2) it is fresh, and he started the "why wasn't dana blocked" discussion. It is a protown post. Did you disagree?
3) You are misunderstanding me. When you start arguing why a DP kill makes sense, you are crossing the line of WIFOM. He justifies the scums kill. He even calls it smart. This has nothing to do with WIFOM. WIFOM is about: "what would scum do". Bunnylover is talking about what scum did.

and do you disagree with everything I say? Because you just ridiculed every single point of my post.

[flinter]

2. it is quite unlikely that scum wouldn't block the single strongest town powerrole available in a normal game. It is quite likely that scum fakeclaims cop. Soooo, why do you completely avoid this by saying "WIFOM is bad"?
3. Right. why would it interest us? why is bunny talking about it? why is he, of all kills, explaining the DP one?

And you are right, this isn't my first point on bunny. But this is a big one, esspecially for the reasons you mentioned: of all kills, you don't want to analyse the DP kill, and if someone says the DP kill was smart, you have something very weird going on. Bunny isn't town, because town wouldn't post it.

[flinter]

[/quote]2) Cops aren't the strongest town powerrole, in fact, letting the cop live and do his thing (aka not roleblocking him) means that we open WIFOM on ourselves AND we start to "follow the cop" which means that when he DOES die,

we don't know that to do next.

I can guarantee scum is trying to get us to do one or the other, probably the first in this scenario. And I'm trying hard to avoid it because it does NOTHING FOR US. At best, it dilutes the thread like crazy and we lynch one scum, but have very little info to go off of tomorrow because everyone's tunneling the claimed cop. At worst, same exact thing, except he IS the town cop. Until I see a counterclaim, I have no reason to NOT believe Dana, and therefore I will. Also, think of it this way, if we keep the "cop" around a bit longer and he tells us his reads, we can get something from it when he does die whether he flips town OR scum. Oftentimes, if scum claims a cop and stays alive, he will inno a townie or two, then one of his scumbuddies, and then call guilty on a scumbuddy. A stronger form of bussing. Yes, this is VERY WIFOMY, but I'm just saying, it is more beneficial for us to keep him around right now.[/quote]

lol. And I dare you to give me one game where a fakeclaimed cop claimed a guilty on his buddy. Otherwise it is better just to take the more likely approach where Dana is just a fakeclaimed cop who stayed a life because he is mafia and the SK/VIG doesn't want to kill him and forgot to claim that he... was... roleblocked.

wait, why would dana forget such a thing if he was scum?

unvote

[flinter]

Your post still doesn't make sense. For once, try to take this game as a game of possibilities. It makes your scumhunting more accurate.

about dana: It makes no sense whatever way you put it.

If dana was a scumbuddy of benmage, he was aware there was a mafia roleblocker, and would have claimed blocked in stead of an innocent result on David. (unless he was scared that someone else would counterclaim being blocked)
If dana is town, scum wouldn't be so stupid not to accurately block a cop. A cop which gives inno's that they'll have to kill if they don't want to make their lynchpool smaller, or who might investigate one of them.

[flinter]

Lol. You have 3 more possibilities: dana gets blocked (didn't happen), dana gets killed (didn't happen), dana is vanilla (you don't actually go in to this). So seriously, stop acting superior. You are making a fool of yourself.


Xite, on a certain moment Dana dies. "Opens a can of wifom" means that the answers come more slowly. If dana dies on any moment now, you become confirmed town. If dana on a certain moment has more innocent results alive then townies still alive, the game is won if he is town. This means that scum can't let a cop live indefinately, as for a town the amount of information is enough on a certain moment.


and Xite, give me one game where a fakeclaimed cop claimed a guilty on his buddy. It's ridiculous.

[flinter]

VOTE: Xite

His argument that a fakeclaimed cop

would

on a certain moment claim a guilty on his partner was terrible but did allow him to slow down the Dana lynch by one day. His recent read that Evilpacman is scum makes no sense. Xite has to go.

[flinter]

Gorrad is starting to become a huge distraction. While earlier it was stated that Wraith his play improved (and that he should have played like that earlier), Gorrad now revives the frankly not that impressive Wraith-case, and I don't like it.

Both the current wagons are not that bad, but I have a lot more confidence in the Xite wagon then in bunnylover's. This being based on votecount analysis.


Shanba, your case on Gorrad isn't that bad, but I don't think we'll see a Gorrad lynch today, if things stay roughly the same. If you had to choose between a Bunnylover lynch or a Xite lynch, which would you choose? You would be more protown if you followed that reasoning with your vote (or improved your case on Gorrad or started a good case somewhere else), as now your vote isn't going to help the town.

[flinter]

improved my gorrad case? Sorry but speaking frankly, the cases on both bunnylover and xite are shit. xite defended dana a bit? So what? Frankly, I was shocked that no one had any doubts at all. I was still wrestling with my thoughts at that point.

As far as bunnylover goes, I don't see anything more than smoke and mirrors. Still, he's one of those fade-into-the-background types, and unlike xite I don't have any particular townread on ihm. Bullet to my head between him and xite it would be him, but I don't intend to be pressured into yet another suboptimal lynch.

But using the argument "the fakeclaimed cop

will

claim a guilty on this buddy" is rather unnatural. And on that moment, Dana claimed to have a innocent report on Xite. I think that is no coïncident and Xite tried to get us to think the fakeclaimed cop would come with true results in a roundabout way.

Actually, I'm slightly baffled at this point. How can you people believe these cases you have are strong? Honestly, either there's somethign I just don't get or everyone is playing terribly. No one, with the exception of wickedest, has said practically anything at all that I agree with, and the way my cases have fallen flat baffles me, because I know they're good cases. This stuff would normally have people jumping up and down in anticipation, or at least acknowledgement - I had to post about that prozac case several times before anyone read it, and even then it seems a substantial number of people just ignored it. Am I being dumb? Are people just not paying attention? What the hell is going on?

Your cases don't have me "jumping up and down in anticipation". I hope this isn't because I'm playing badly, but I did have some trouble finding the point of the "prozac"-case (you weren't trying to insult porochaz, right?). Don't get me wrong, I do like your Gorrad case, but I like the one on xite more. And since there are multiple players seemingly feeling that way, I question the use of the rather drawn out discussion you are having with Gorrad.

And was this long answer only to justify keeping your vote there, without any further change to the game?

[flinter]

I'm wary of Porochaz, but thats just because of Kise saying he the GF, and other then that he hasn't done anything that I can remember to make him scum.

Weird. The same thing makes me think he got an innocent result on Porochaz, while he expected a guilty.

Preview Edit: ew I forgot Dana had said Xite was innocent =/. But that just builds a WIFOM doesn't it Flinter?

which is why it isn't the main part of my case.

[flinter]

Then there's this gem. It's the sole "possibility" Xite is willing to entertain in his list of theories, this one being that dana is scum:

-Is scum
--He will probably eventually give us one guilty of at least one of his scumbuddies.

Laughably bad logic. Unless dana utterly and completely failed at coherent thought, he would never give us a realy guilty on one of his scumbuddies. In fact, his only guilty was on a townie. Let's look at those innocents...oh wait, you're one of them. But I've mentioned that.

Awesome case, Wraith. I would advise everybody to take a look at it. The above point is by far the best. No sane town would defend a probable fakeclaimed cop with "he will give us a guilty on scum anyway".

[flinter]

bunny, why are you asking me to vote you?

And I vote xite over you because you didn't make the explicit point that scum

would

give away one of their own. Well, until the last post.

[flinter]

"Fluffy thing's everyone else has said..."

Both the current wagons are not that bad, but I have a lot more confidence in the Xite wagon then in bunnylover's. This being based on votecount analysis.


Shanba, your case on Gorrad isn't that bad, but I don't think we'll see a Gorrad lynch today, if things stay roughly the same. If you had to choose between a Bunnylover lynch or a Xite lynch, which would you choose? You would be more protown if you followed that reasoning with your vote (or improved your case on Gorrad or started a good case somewhere else), as now your vote isn't going to help the town.

Ooh, may I see this analysis. I'm very very interested. Or again, I'm gonna call some more bullshit on this.

Oh the classic choice question. This should by no means be coming up until 2 days before deadline. Just sayin.

I have more on the way too.

If you are going to keep misrepping every post I make, don't hide it at the end of a wall of post. At least give me a fair chance to point out what mess you are making here.

I clearly gave shanba

three

options. Follow either of the bandwagons

or think of something new, either on Gorrad, or on someone else

. On this moment I have a townread on Shanba, but I really want him to do scumhunting that others would agree with. It's just a better use of his scumhunting qualities. Now, I made this very clear, then why do you misrep me by saying that I give him only two options.

NVM, you aren't going to answer accusations anyway. You have avoided points all game as soon as they became serious. The only thing you do is post, post, post to confuse everybody.

Is it surprising that you have basically attacked every post of me, since I was the first person who suspected you, back in day 1? I don't think so.

[flinter]

1) If you are going to keep misrepping every post I make, don't hide it at the end of a wall of post. At least give me a fair chance to point out what mess you are making here.

2) I clearly gave shanba

three

options. Follow either of the bandwagons

or think of something new, either on Gorrad, or on someone else

. On this moment I have a townread on Shanba, but I really want him to do scumhunting that others would agree with. It's just a better use of his scumhunting qualities. Now, I made this very clear, then why do you misrep me by saying that I give him only two options.

3) NVM, you aren't going to answer accusations anyway. You have avoided points all game as soon as they became serious. The only thing you do is post, post, post to confuse everybody.

Is it surprising that you have basically attacked every post of me, since I was the first person who suspected you, back in day 1? I don't think so.

1) First, I was doing catch-up posts.
Second, if you're reading you wouldn't have that problem and the fact that I SAID IT gives you a fair chance to "point out what mess

making here.
Third, if you're not reading then you're the one not giving yourself a fair chance, don't blame it on me.
2) Quote for where this third oprion was please? I could have missed it.
3) Lol. I would like you to point out exactly where I've done this. And I would like you to point out every instance, or at least 10 instances, because I'm pretty sure that's just one huge lie right there.
Also, I don't just post, post, post to confuse everybody. I have very little time and a lot of things to respond to, therefore I post everything I need to respond to at once. I'm trying to get better, but that means more posts. I gave you the option of which you'd like to see, IIRC.

2) you are kidding me. I posted clearly that I didn't see shanba's wagon taking off, and that I would like him to do something else, as the discussion start to draw out.
3) I don't have the time. The last post was on obvious one. The one about the difference between my mysterio case and Wickeds was another from the top of my head. Further, if you have so little time, you are just trying to get me to make another wall of text. I'm not going to do that. However, it is no secret that you like to debate every point I make. If that makes sense or not.

And is this your strategy? "Post 10 quotes for me!", "where did you say that?" (while it was in the post you reacted on initially). You are trying to draw out the debate.

[flinter]

I clearly gave shanba

three

options. Follow either of the bandwagons

or think of something new, either on Gorrad, or on someone else

. On this moment I have a townread on Shanba, but I really want him to do scumhunting that others would agree with. It's just a better use of his scumhunting qualities. Now, I made this very clear, then why do you misrep me by saying that I give him only two options.

Hey flinter, the problem I have with this is fairly simple. I don't have any particular reason to think the two who are top suspects today are scum. I do have good reason to believe gorrad is scum. I'm not going to go from a case I think is strong to a case I think is weak just because you guys want me to. If you don't agree with my scumhunting then I suppose you're entitled to your opinion, but I'm not going to change my mind based on that.

Tell you what, I can compromise a bit here. I have been skimming xite's posts a bit since I've had a townread on him - I'll go back and reread him thoroughly and tell you all exactly what I make of the case. Ok?

That would be nice.

I would have been equally happy if you had done the same on Gorrad but brought new points.

[flinter]

VOTE: demonhybrid

He votes wraith because wraith doesn't man up.

Demonhybrid doesn't even care if wraith is scum.

[flinter]

VOTE: demonhybrid

He votes wraith because wraith doesn't man up.

Demonhybrid doesn't even care if wraith is scum.

That's stupid. I've long thought about whether wraith is scum since I've replaced in and I'm sick of him relying on AtE as a defense to the point where I think he's scum without an argument. Point went way over your head.

Calling me stupid isn't a defense. You vote him because you are sick of him relying on AtE.

You don't actually vote him for being scum. AtE and being scum is unrelated, esspecially with newer players.

but, seen the nearing deadline, I'll have to hope the (I hope) vig takes care of you.

vote xite

with an option to bunnylover. I won't join the Wraith wagon. It is pointless and on town.

[flinter]

Flinter: I could go back and pick out a whole bunch of semantical things gorrad said, I could spew a whole bunch of theory as to why I completely disagree witha lot of the stuff he pushed, but basically my case boils down to a) I don't think he's scumhunted honestly/hard enough and b)he seems to be looking for entirely the wrong things, leading to him being on a lot of terrible wagons. If that's not enough to convince people, adding a bunch of fluff won't help (or at least it ought not to.) Regardless, I'm coming around to the idea that he and I have different philosophies on what is scummy.

<---- I know it is small, but it really is there.

It's not that we disagree on the basics of the game, I think. I often find myself agreeing with your cases. Practically this entire post I agreed with, and it really made me doubt my Xite-vote.

Both you and Xite have mentioned that I have been on a lot of wagons, but I really doubt that since I haven't been posting a lot. I know that isn't how it should be, but I'm not going to get replaced when I can reasonably keep up with the game.

I've voted for Xite, demonhybrid, mysterio, singer, bunnylover and Dana.


I'm going to think about my Xite vote. Xite, why were you convinced that dana would claim a guilty on one of his scumpartners? Dana can hardly have been the scums most valuable member.

I really don't like how Demon went from voting me to voting Xite within a few posts.

[flinter]

Flinter: I could go back and pick out a whole bunch of semantical things gorrad said, I could spew a whole bunch of theory as to why I completely disagree witha lot of the stuff he pushed, but basically my case boils down to a) I don't think he's scumhunted honestly/hard enough and b)he seems to be looking for entirely the wrong things, leading to him being on a lot of terrible wagons. If that's not enough to convince people, adding a bunch of fluff won't help (or at least it ought not to.) Regardless, I'm coming around to the idea that he and I have different philosophies on what is scummy.

<---- I know it is small, but it really is there.

It's not that we disagree on the basics of the game, I think. I often find myself agreeing with your cases. Practically this entire post I agreed with, and it really made me doubt my Xite-vote.

Both you and Xite have mentioned that I have been on a lot of wagons, but I really doubt that since I haven't been posting a lot. I know that isn't how it should be, but I'm not going to get replaced when I can reasonably keep up with the game.

I've voted for Xite, demonhybrid, mysterio, singer, bunnylover and Dana.


I'm going to think about my Xite vote. Xite, why were you convinced that dana would claim a guilty on one of his scumpartners? Dana can hardly have been the scums most valuable member.

I really don't like how Demon went from voting me to voting Xite within a few posts.

Except I've never voted you.

Hey, you are right. I reread the bit where I thought you did, and my point really doesn't make sense. Sorry.

(what did happen is that you switched from the Wraith wagon to the Xite wagon. Why?)

[flinter]

Because people think he's scum.

If you want to advocate his lynch, then do so and advocate him for being scum, not "town but distracting". You're still lynching a townie.

Unvote, Vote: Xite91

I know. You went from agreeing with Xite the wagon xite voted for to voting xite. This did seem a little drastic to me.

Maybe I shouldn't worry too much. Maybe you are just a townie who changed his mind.

Gah, I need another reread.

[flinter]

this must be my lucky day...

Just to confirm, do you understand why I might be alarmed by your vote (considering that I didn't make the last few mistakes in the posts on purpose)?

[flinter]

Ok, I'll try again. I hope I won't make an error again.

in post 2115 you vote Wraith. In post 2118 you were arguing with me about it, and you were convinced it was right.

in post 2128 you ask Xite why he is in favor of a Wraith lynch when he has a scumlist with 3 other players on top.

In post 2132 you vote Xite because Xite is in favor of a Wraith lynch but he doesn't think Wraith is scum.

While I fully agree with the logic, but I can't see how this works. First you are convinced that Wraith today's lynch, then you start to investigate someone who is actually agreeing with you.

[flinter]

I understood the logic. I already said that.

Why were you suspicious of someone who was agreeing with you? Was it because you didn't think your Wraith vote was that good?

[flinter]

I get what you're saying now. Doesn't make it any less wrong.

By your logic, everyone voting for who I'm voting for is agreeing with me. Everyone voting for who I vote for means I agree with them.

You can vote for the same person and disagree with that person on many levels:

1. Reasons for voting
2. Level of scumminess
3. Motivations

The list goes on and on. And you're still misrepping things.

I don't have the intention of doing that.

And yes, Xite, in a way, supported your call that Wraith should be lynched. You voted him. I stated I didn't like your vote, even voted you, and you don't ask me questions or FoS me.

It's like I'm missing something. I can't understand why you would seriously consider the possibility that Xite is scum in such a situation. If you can pick Xite, there are so many players you could see as scum.

unvote

[flinter]

To make it even more specific, Xite's advocation for Wraith's lynch is different than my vote because I don't find Wraith town, and he does, but doesn't mind a Wraith lynch.

If you were absolutely convinced Wraith was scum, you wouldn't have changed your vote, and you would certainly not have changed it to someone who actually supported a Wraith lynch. You didn't agree with what Xite said, but Xite did support a lynch on the person you were voting for. Again, if you were convinced Wraith was scum, why would you care what the reasons of other people to support you were?

What made you look at players that support you. And don't answer that Xite did something scummy, we know that. But you have to search before you find something: what made you search the players that supported the same lynch as you did?

[flinter]

I'm pretty sure it isn't bad logic.

but this isn't going anywhere. I'm afraid some players will again complain about the amount of posts they have to read.

[flinter]

The more I read this, the more I think that scum wouldn't play this way. It's too easy for scum to lurk.

Shanba was right.

vote MME

. He doesn't do a thing.

[flinter]

singer convinced me in the last few pages.

Xite, stop looking at this as a debate. It isn't one. It isn't about "disproving things", and it is very unlikely you can disprove everything.

[flinter]

VOTE: bunnylover

[flinter]

After a reread, I'm coming to this list. I'm not going to lynch anyone out of my townlist. The Wraith wagon is antitown. I'm in favor of lynching of Demon and MME. Singer and Poro are less prefered wagons, but I really didn't like Poro's start today. My singer-read was mostly scummy during the start of the game, but singer is more and more becoming a neutral.

Town

2) evilpacman18
10) Shanba
7) Wraith
13) Antihero
14) Flinter

Meh

9) Singersigner
16) Porochaz

Scum

21) My Milked Eek
23) DemonHybrid

Demon is the largest wagon that I like right now:

vote Demon

[flinter]

VOTE: DemonHybrid
Why would singer have Xite killed right after pushing a lynch on him and why do you think that scumsinger had Xite and not Gorrad killed? Especially since the Xite wagon was the biggest for a while yesterday so he'd be likely to get lynched soon.

You act as if you know who killed who.

If you were a townie, it would surprising you wouldn't use such information for a vote.

But, if you are scum, and you know that evil couldn't actually know it, but he is right... you would make such a post.

[flinter]

I loved Shanba's last post.

From the votecount alone I'm fairly certain Prozac is scum.

Pre-emptive OMGUS.

Was this a bad excuse to use "OMGUS" because you have no real answers?

[flinter]

I see your point, Anti, but I'd like a DH or MME lynch more. I won't forget Singer.

[flinter]

Too many suspects, not enough evidence to go around. The only person I'm certain about alignment is Shanba, and since he's been a voice of reason throughout the game I'll go with him.

Seriously? We're not lynching Wraith today?

I wasn't planning to, no.

And Shanba, I trust you. Even after Gorrad. You make sense, and I find myself agreeing with you more and more.

Singer, I believe you are at L-1. Do you have anything to say for yourself?

[flinter]

As a person? I dont think thats relevant.

On her play.

Not her wagon or the cases against her.

How does this make sense? Porochaz didn't want to answer, I guess. The odd thing is that DH doesn't think it is scummy, because it is.

unvote vote porochaz

I'm not going to hammer now, I first want to read a little more. Singer's play throughout this game was decent, much better then some others, and my gut says her claim is honest.

[flinter]

Vote: evilpacman18

until you explain what the fuck was up with that hammer.

What suspicion did you have against singer that justified it?

You were on that wagon yourself, right? I find this post very hypocritical. VOTE: Demonhybrid.

The last line is just there to make sure that DH can justify his own vote.

[flinter]

DH, I know that last sentence was to make sure we couldn't attack you with the same point.

I don't care about pacman. I think he is town. You, however, are quite eager to blame him for the mislynch. This added with your previous play, makes that I won't change my vote.

oh,

VT

[flinter]

you are a little nervous, Demon. When you were so confident your Pacman case would do so well... what happened?

[flinter]

No, I'm frustrated that every time you mention me, it's been a giant misrep.

What's with the question dodge?

Oh boy, this is going to be fun.

While your role has been scummy all game long, you seem to be scumhunting on a very short timescale. You read the thread and make new cases where you can. The new case against Pacman (one of my townreads after he replaced) shows this. You don't even care about the previous game, but starting this day, you saw the opportunity to make a case against him.

and there the word is: opportunity. Your question doesn't have the intention to find out if I'm scum: it would require for Pacman to be scum to link me via that question. Neither is its intention to convince me: I already made clear that Pacman isn't getting my votes. So you are trying to convince others by showing that nobody has an answer to the question why Pacman hammered.

The question is more a rhetorical structure. Which is why I'm not going to answer it (even if I could give the reasons for evilpacman).

I had no problems with pacman's hammer. The day was over. There was no real counterwagon of importance. Further is a hammer later in the game a more protown action.

Lets lynch this opportunistic scum

[flinter]

Another quick night.

Prozac - Vanilla Townie - Killed Night Six

Shanba - Mason - Killed Night Six

That leaves six alive, which makes it 4 votes to lynch, and 3 votes for a no lynch.

Deadline:

Nov 11th.

I wonder, would Porochaz be able to replace? Shanba obvious can't because there might be a third mason. Porochaz would have to reread less of the game if he agreed. Would any of the players be opposed to this?

[flinter]

wow, It's really awesome you dared to replace into this monster.

Possibly you have already done that, but in your reread you should focus on the interactions Nhammen and Benmage had with others. Both were shot without being suspected. I think they are easier readable then Dana, who only seemed to make a point of avoiding his scumbuddies.

Nhammen's on and off on dana is particulary funny. It is a point in favor of Wraith. Both Nhammen and Benmage aren't willing to vote Reckoner while they do make little point against them. Reckoner was a lurker, who hasn't done anything. Demon replaced him. I'm not going to unvote, as I'm very confident in this read. I could unvote as a favor to you, but I would vote him later anyway.

I think the setup can't have been 1 sk, 4 scum, townies. That seems town-sided. I would expect 2 scum to be left, and a SK. With 6 players, the best we can do is lynch 1 mafia, and get into a kingmaker scenario. If we lynch the SK, we lose (I like to support your theories Pacman, but I'm really not the SK, or mafia.)

[flinter]

Yeah, he doesn't seem like mafia, but his play is very opportunistic. Hence the belief that he is a likely 3rd party killer, but that's only something Wraith and I brought up, IIRC. MME's thoughts have been almost non-existent and flinter's read on him screams town. Anti-hero's been in and out of this game.

I voted MME yesterday. He is, and was, scummy. Don't say I had reads which I hadn't.

[flinter]

sorry DH. I misread.

Antihero. I know you aren't the SK. Do you understand why pacman names you?

[flinter]

Hi, Yosarian here. Probably don't have time to read the whole game right now, and we seem to be at lynch -1, so I'm going to have to pick and choose what parts of the game to focus on, at least for the moment.

A few quick questions to everyone, before I try to do any focused re-reads; this is just based on me looking at the list of who died back on page 1.

1. Just looking at the first page, it looks like the doctor got lynched on day 2. How did that happen? Were any of you on that wagon, and if so, why?

2. Again looking at that list, it looks like we lynched one scum so far this game. Who pushed that wagon, and who do you guys think comes out of that wagon looking more or less pro-town?

3. Looks like there was a dead cop, Kise; do we have any relevant role information from him?

If there's anything else I should look at in targeted re-reads, let me know. I'm probably going to go re-read day 4 first, since town actually lynched a scum that day, and that usually gives the best info.

-Yosarian2

1. I was in favor of the mysterio lynch for a long time, and I'm afraid I kind of lead that wagon.
2. Dana had been allowed to live for 3 day's on a fakeclaim. When the real cop was killed, his lynch was an obvious one: scum could bus where and when they wanted. It is hard to analyse the wagon that got to his lynch. The votecounts when Dana was alive, but under pressure would be more interesting: he would be ideal to distance from.
3. The only breadcrumb we picked up was a town-investigation on Porochaz.

Sorry, Yosarian2, but day 4 won't give you a lot. As I said, Dana was obvious, and his lynch was unavoidable for scum.

I think we can all agree that you're not the SK simply because MME couldn't have made kills while he wasn't here.

Sounds good to me!

-Ether

Hadn't thought about it that way. I think it is pretty convincing. Ok, their goes my second choice for the SK.



Contrary to Antihero, I really like pacman's list. I agree on all points now (I didn't get at the start why MME couldn't have been the SK). This is odd, because mostly Antihero's thoughts and my own were very much the same. I wonder what changed that. Next post is a list for Evil.

unvote

. I shouldn't be so stubborn. Seen evil's support, the lynch of DH seems unavoidable.

[flinter]

Votecount 7.3

DemonHybrid [3] (Wraith, Flinter, Evilpacman)

Flinter [1] (Demonhybrid)

Not Voting [3] (EtherDent, Antihero)

With 6 alive, it will take 4 votes to lynch a player, and 3 votes to no lynch.

I'll have to assume a few things. I'm going to assume these:

1. There are 2 mafia and 1 SK left.
2. DH is mafia
3. Scum wouldn't bus.

This gives that town actually has lost already. We are no longer in the majority. Scum has no reason to bus for that reason. Scum rarely busses close to lylo anyway, unless it is absolutely necesary.

Does everyone still know the first kill? It was Nhammen. ConfidAnon and Nhammen were arguing for the most of day 1, and from that point of view, a Nhammen kill actually makes sense for CA. The fact that Antihero is actually trying to look for town too makes that his thoughts and mine would line up mostly, but the last post by EvilPacman, where he clears not one, but two players from being the SK (EtherDent and himself).

The other player from my point of view that still might be the SK is Wraith. However, this kill pattern is not from a SK that is close to death: Benmage was a relaxed SK kill. If the SK would have been under pressure, Gorrad, Wicked, etc would have made much more sense. Conc: it isn't Wraith.

Evil is right in his points about me. I haven't been leading much, or have been very active. For a pretty large part of the game, I had trouble keeping up with it.


The the Mafia. I'm very confident about DH, as I told you already. Is it surprising that EtherDent doesn't see the DH case? With Antihero as SK, EtherDent is the remaining mafia member, who doesn't want to bus, and claims for that reason that the points against Reckoner can't be found. See Yosarians post: Reck "he couldn't get information on", and flinter "said nothing meaningful" and he only calls me scummy. Reck is excused for his lurking: assuming that Reck (DH) is scum, this incriminates EtherDent.

So, Evil:

Antihero/CA: SK
EtherDent/MME: mafia
Sebguer/Reck/DH: mafia
Wraith: town
Evil: town
flinter: town


I think I'm completely accurate here, but I'm too late. Town has lost already. Assuming that antihero is a bulletproof SK, he has won right here. If he hammers DH, he cannot lose (as scum cannot kill him). The endgame would be 1 scum (etherdent), 1 SK (antihero) and a townie. The townie votes no lynch, as he should, but with Antihero being bulletproof, he wins in the night. The only way for town to win this situation would be to convince anti to kill EtherDent, it is however a shame that he won't, as anti is clever and knows he wins if he doesn't. Town is helping the SK.


Now to the real question:

Scum, do you have a way to stop the SK?

Demon, you can answer that, if you want.

[flinter]

Yosarian2, may I ask you something? Do you have to argue often in real life? Your style of arguing is smoother then that of the ordinary mafia player.

The SK being alone, against a 5 player mafia team and a bunch of townies would be hardly fair if the SK wasn't bulletproof. Not an unreasonable assumption, I thought.
I'm not going to convince you that Demon is scum. He is though, seen Nhammen and Benmage posts. You, however, are already set on excusing everything he did, so why bother? Anti-SK wins if he lynches scum here, so he would love to hammer.


The Mafia has it easier in this case. All they have to do is mislynch and make sure there are no crosskills and they win. Based on what I thought till now, EtherDent is trying to argue with me in such a way that it becomes later more natural for EtherDent to vote me as a counterwagon to DH.


You are right, Yosarian2. There are actually two scenario's in which town wins against 2 mafia and 1 BP SK.

vote nolynch

<- protown choice. Townies can still force this. I won't explain it.

[flinter]

If there are two scum left, flinter is one of them. A No Lynch is the WORST POSSIBLE THING to do right now.

Please explain, wraith. Because you are very wrong.

Wait, I'll try to give you an example. 1 town vs 1 mafia a vs 1 mafia b.

Mafia a and mafia b are not in a mafia together, and both have a kill. What should town do?

No matter who town lynches, the other mafia wins. The town player should vote no lynch. During the night, both mafia would want the other mafia to kill town, while they kill the other mafia: prisoners dilemma. So, to look town and fool the other mafia, mafia would in such a situation vote no-lynch too.


would the mod make a 4 player scumteam in a 24 player game? I doubt it. So we have 2 scum left. There is a SK. Town can no longer win by lynching the antitown players wraith. No lynching is the best possible thing.

[flinter]

vote nolynch

<- protown choice. Townies can still force this. I won't explain it.

uh. yeah you will

Do you agree that we need to be lucky to win this? (as in, there are 2 mafia and 1 sk left?)

[flinter]

If we go by your assumptions, flinter, and there are 2 scum+1 SK, then we have a 50% chance of lynching any scum today. Better to go with our best reads and hope we hit. Also, I failed to take the second kill into account. If we lynch today, there will be two kills tonight, and a three-way kingmaker (if the scum don't crosskill one way or the other)

Think a little further wraith. 50% of hitting scum is brilliant, but then at night they shoot. We lynch scum today, tonight 2 kills and if the SK is bulletproof, town can never win a 3 way.

Which is why I don't support a DH lynch.

[flinter]

Can you do that with math? Just outline the scenario you're imagining where a no lynch now helps town win.

The rest of this post assumes there's 2 mafia.

Luckiest scenario: with 1 scum left after DH dies, they take each other out.
Town can't win without a certain amount of luck. If they don't take each other out then either the remaining mafia player will have to eliminate the SK while the SK eliminates a town member or the SK eliminates the mafia player while the mafia player eliminates a town member. Frankly, one of those three scenarios happening is MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH more likely than both of them taking out town players. So I don't see where your no lynch would help because it would leave us with 2 scum, 1 SK, and 3 town at the end of the day and then either

2 scum, 2 town,

1 scum, 1 SK, 2 town,

or 1 scum, 3 town after the night. If that remaining scum isn't DH, there's a big chance town could mislynch for the lose.

The problem I have with explaining is that "luck" implies that scum make a mistake. I'd rather keep information to a minimum for that reason. If the SK can't be killed, and we lynch DH, we either end up with 1-1-1 lost, as the SK can't be killed, or if the SK makes the mistake of killing the mafia (as explained before), in a simple lylo with the SK. The SK isn't stupid, so he'll kill a vanilla as most of the reads are already in the open.

If you try to do the maths for the No-lynch scenario, you'll see that randomly the town wins more often, but it has also the advantage that the SK has to shoot for antitown players (he loses if the scum are still alive tomorrow)

[flinter]

That's almost every possibility. If your assumptions are correct, town has very very little hope of winning no matter what. If my assumptions are correct, town has high chance of winning no matter what. No Lynch is simply the worst possible option, and town would only win on sheer dumb luck.

Lynching with my assumptions is walking into a knife. We'd lose.
No-lyncing with your assumptions is giving up the game, We'd lose too.

Are your assumptions more likely then mine? Do you seriously believe that on 24 players, only 4 of them were mafia? That is a small group, seen that they didn't have terrific power. I doubt it, Wraith.

EDIT: Wraith, you assume that the SK isn't bulletproof. Then we should lynch, I know that. I no-lynch because I think the SK is bulletproof (which means kingmaker situations can't be won by town, and crosskills are seriously limited). In a 24 player game, with a 5 player mafia, a BP SK is quite a normal role.

[flinter]

flinter: what reason do you have to believe the SK is bulletproof? There's no evidence of that whatsoever since every night has had two kills.

it is an existing role. And for the SK it is 1 against 23. I expect him to have some advantages. Further, from the mod point of view, a BP SK neatly solves possible kingmaker scenario's.

But alright, I can't convince you.

vote Demon

. Take the win anti, you deserve it.

[flinter]

lol, you have to kill EtherDent anyway anti. Otherwise we'll lynch you tomorrow. You have to end it tonight now you have claimed

[flinter]

Wow.

I'm a complete failure.

GG town. VOTE: Antihero

You aren't a complete failure. It was mostly PoE that we could find you... and EvilPacman did play a good game. But thank you for not killing me, I do appreciate it.

sorry, because I didn't think town deserved the win anymore

vote Antihero

[flinter]

Wow, that's awesome. if you had killed a townie, antihero, I would have assumed you were the last scum and lynched you today and lost. man, we lucked out.

Vote:Antihero

Really well played, evilpacman.

Thank you for replacing in. Is there a particular reward for jumping into a 99 page game, or could I maybe help you in another way?

[flinter]

Oh shit. I was totally convinced flinter was the last scum.

Vote: Antihero

Damn good game, dude. I didn't suspect you much until about Day 5.

There weren't many that agreed with you. In the votecounts, I can only count 2 votes for me. I think mysterio voted me too.

A no-kill would have made much more sense for the SK. I don't actually see the benefit for the mafia (although they have lost anyway)

[flinter]

I'm glad you thought him just as annoying

[flinter]

sorry xite, I didn't mean that badly, but I thought you were scum for a long time because you were so wrong about me.

[flinter]

Anti, you singlehandedly wiped out 66% of us. What gave us away? lol

is this prove that gut reads without pressure are more accurate then cases?

[flinter]

I had a lot of fun. I wouldn't have changed anything about the game.

[flinter]

(evil, you couldn't win with Anti in the game. If you had been alive here, we would have to choose to lynch the SK... which we wouldn't. (because Wraith was the only one who seriously thought that a 4 player scumteam was possible).

If anyone, Anti should have won this. (and you played well. You only were unlucky, the rest of your play was fine. Don't be too harsh on yourself )

[flinter]

Oh, and flinter? Next time someone asks you to explain your vote, you might want to do so, lol. I was entirely willing to vote DH, if someone would just give me a reason to think he was scum. All your refusing to answer did was make me think you were scum, and if antihero hadn't claimed SK, I might have lynched you in endgame because of that.

I didn't have a good answer. I

knew

he was scum. But no argument that I could think of was convincing. Both nhammen and benmage had a particular interaction with Reckoner, but it really had no argumentive value. DH his start of this day was obviously unnatural, but how to convince others of that!?

I would have, Yosarian2, if I would have had a good answer.