Mini 1145 — Plain Mafia (over)

[RangeroftheNorth]

Vote: Peabody

Random Vote

[RangeroftheNorth]

I don't know. I can't vouch for your intelligence.

[RangeroftheNorth]

And you can vouch for other people? Interesting

[RangeroftheNorth]

Just being obtuse, but it is a lot of fun.

[RangeroftheNorth]

1) I'm also on pacific time.
2) I've played quite a bit on site, but its been a very long time, so I'm probably rusty.
3) I'll post as often as possible. It should be at least every day, but its hard to say more. Depending on work, I might be on most of the day, or only during the evenings. Either way, I'll try to keep up a fast post rate.

As for the night 0 issue, I personally prefer it. Sure, it sucks for whoever gets killed, but it actually gives the town some information to work with. Admittedly, very minor information, but information nonetheless. Otherwise, the lynch on day 1 is basically completely random, based on whoever says the first wrong thing. The more information is available to the town, the harder it is for the mafia to manipulate us. But all that's my personal opinion. I like playing on day 1 a lot better when we've had a night 0.

[RangeroftheNorth]

We now know scum killed Kazlam. Great. Analyze that and lead us to victory, Mr. Night Zero.

(Night 0 in a 13 player game is kind of counterproductive, considering the switch to 13 players was to give town an extra mislynch that we now don't get.)

Well, as ICEninja already pointed out, there was only one kill last night. Not inherently meaningful, but certainly informative. Pro-town players also got to make choices last night, and its possible that they have information that could be helpful later. I know the amount of information is small, but any information makes it more likely that the first lynch will be based on something, rather than completely random.

As to your second point, as far as I can tell, Night 0 with 13 players still gives us an extra mislynch over Night 0 with 12 players.

[RangeroftheNorth]

The tell DRK is referring to is that its common for a player who congratulates the doctor for a successful save to be scum. Its an old tell, which makes it less valuable, as most players avoid doing it, simply because its considered a tell.

DRK seems to be extrapolating from there and defining a related tell, that I, at least, haven't heard before. He's claiming that you were congratulating luck on preventing an important kill.

I can see some logic in this tell. A scum's natural reaction would to be disappointed that they hadn't managed to kill someone in the case of the doctor, or that they hadn't killed someone important, in this case. To mask that reaction, they might go so far in the opposite direction as to express happiness that things had gone well for the town.

Now, just because its logical doesn't mean its accurate. I haven't seen it referenced before, but I haven't played in quite a while. I haven't noticed the behavior in scum myself, but I'd be interested in looking for it.

DRK's other argument also makes some sense. You both answer the questions, and mention that the questions aren't helpful or necessary. Here you seem to be going out of your way not to rub either group the wrong way. If you think the questions aren't necessary, why answer them? If you don't mind answering them, why point out that they're unnecessary? It seems like your trying to agree with everyone, which is another possible scum tell.

So, Lucresia, I can see why DRK is voting for you. Its not a particularly strong case, but its decent for this early on day one.

Unvote: Peabody
Vote: Lucresia

[RangeroftheNorth]

The last sentence of your post needs some clarification, Erratus.

Are you saying, "Four more votes on Lucresia, who is scum!"?

or

"Scum, please vote for Lucresia?"

Your sentence seems to me to mean the second thing, but I'm willing to wait for your clarification.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Alright, thanks for the clarification.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I liked Pine's noted observation of Ranger's strange and out of place question to Erratus. I'd like to see Ranger's response to Pine in his next post. The question floating through my mind is whether he was serious.

There's really not much to explain. I initially read the post wrong, and it seemed scummy. Then I read it again, realized a second, more reasonable interpretation. Asking the question was probably unnecessary, but I asked it impulsively.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I've been waiting for that post for awhile Lucresia, but it doesn't actually deal with any of the reasons I'm voting for you. Saying that your just explaining what you're thinking doesn't negate scum tells. If it seems like you're trying to avoid annoying anyone, that seems suspicious to me whether that's just what you were thinking or not.

Saying that you know that you're town and that we should be focusing on finding scum is meaningless. We don't know that you're town, and we are trying to find scum. Right now, you seem like the most likely candidate to me. That's why I'm voting for you. I do think that the people lurking aren't helping the town, but that's mostly because they aren't giving us any information to analyze. I definitely think Lynchking should be prodded, and his absence is certainly anti-town, but I think its a null-tell at this point, not a scum-tell.

And no one has said that you were actually congratulating the doctor: what I, and others, have said, is that you expressing happiness that a power role wasn't killed is similar to congratulating the doctor, which is commonly seen as a scum tell. I explained that as clearly as I could in Post #42.

In short, I feel like you're trying to deflect the problems that we have without actually addressing them, by targeting someone who hasn't posted yet. Claiming that we should be focusing our attention on the people lurking is somewhat ironic considering that you went 3 days without posting while people were waiting for you to address their concerns about you.

[RangeroftheNorth]

The last page or so have been strange.

First, Lucresia's reaction and claim. After her last post, I'm really not sure how to read Lucresia. I still find her behavior suspicious, but the last post was a train wreck, and during the last page, a lot of other people have seemed a lot more suspicious to me.

Next, the strange ICENinja bandwagon. First, Romanus puts a vote on ICENinja with a single sentence for justification. In the next post, Trendall, who had seemed strongly behind the Lucresia wagon, joined him with no explanation for his vote, and no reason for unvoting Lucresia. I found Romanus's vote a little strange, and Trendall's downright baffling. I'd really like to hear his explanation for that vote. Then EA jumps on, simply explaining his vote by quoting passages from ICENinja that don't seem particularly suspicious to me. Then Valern started posting random pictures to justify his vote on ICENinja. I can't decide who on this bandwagon I find most suspicious. Everyone's behavior has been so strange that I don't even know where to start.

Unvote: Lucresia

I'm still not sure about Lucresia, but I really don't want to lynch her yet. I want to get a better read on everyone on the ICENinja bandwagon before we end the day.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Also, point out to me where I voted for Lucresia exactly, because I don't recall ever doing so. I'm sure that my vote wouldn't have seemed so baffling to you if you'd read the thread.

You're right. After re-reading your posts, I realize that my take on that situation was pretty far off. My question for you is, if you were that suspicious of ICENinja already, why did you wait until Romanus voted for him to do so yourself. That seems awfully sheepy.

Anyway, ICENinja's defense has just descended into a flurry of personal attacks pretty quickly

I'm going to assume you haven't read my most recent post, because you'd have to be pretty unintelligent to say this after having read it.

Or, 'if you think I'm mafia you're stupid'.

This is just silly. Romanus clearly hadn't read ICENinja's most recent post, as the accusations he made weren't true anymore as of that post.

There have been plenty of personal attacks on both sides, and I still don't see the case against ICENinja at all.

[RangeroftheNorth]

@Peabody - Yes I missed it, but I think the answer would be obvious

since I pointed out the better interpretation in the post.

After Lucresia's post, my suspicions of her have been slightly reduced. Its a large post with only a little substance and a lot of summary of the game, but its a good start.

I've been Looking over the players on the ICE bandwagon:
Romanus has been keeping his posts short, and there's really not much to analyze. I'm getting a scummy vibe from him, but I'm not sure what's causing it.

Trendall jumped on the wagon very quickly, but he had already expressed suspicion of ICE earlier. Not nearly as much suspicion as he expressed for Lucresia, who he never voted for, however. It seems a little strange that he would wait until after someone else had voted for ICE to put his vote on. Almost like he's trying to make sure ICE is a safe target before voting. This is dampened by the fact that he never actually voted for Lucresia, who was certainly a safe target at that point.

EA's posts have generally made accusations without backing them up, ignored the points that other people have made, and with the excessive capitalization and posting his vote against ICE 11 times, have had an annoying quality. To me, he seems the most suspicious on the wagon so far.

Valern's reasons for voting ICE seem to be that ICE got defensive very quickly after being voted. I don't see ICE's actions that way. The quick piling on of votes on ICE seem very suspicious and ICE's reaction was trying to find which of the people voting him was scum. That is scum hunting, and he was focusing on the most suspicious thing going on in the game. Still Valern's vote actually had a reason.

Vote: Erratus Apathos

I find him the most suspicious person on the ICEWagon at the moment, although I'd really like to see more of substance from Romanus.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Why did you ask the question if you realized a more appropriate interpretation at the time of post? What I'm really asking is what was the purpose in your mind at the time for asking the question: legitimate scum hunting, maybe you thought Erratus slipped up, etc... ? Did you feel that the second interpretation was a legitimate interpretation at the time, and if yes, do you still feel it is?

I still thought it was possible that Erratus had slipped up. I didn't think it was likely. I'm perfectly willing to admit that the question was somewhat pointless, but I don't think asking it hurt anything. I'm tired of answering questions about it, however. I don't think it was significant. If you do, please point out the significance to me.

@Erratus Apothos, Post #136:
You're right, at least in part. Your accusations have been backed up. As for you ignoring the points others have made, mostly what I was referring to was you ignoring what ICE said in his defense. All-together, after rereading everything, I'm fairly confident that the reason I voted for you over the other people on ICE's wagon was mostly do to the overall tone and lack of decorum in your posts, which I think is a null-tell at best. The fact that the two players I think are most likely to be town both give you a town read also works in your favor. My vote could probably be better served elsewhere.

Unvote: Erratus Apothos

You don't want me to use capitalization or repetition? Well TOUGH SHIT, COWBOY! TOUGH SHIT, COWBOY! TOUGH SHIT, COWBOY! TOUGH SHIT, COWBOY! TOUGH SHIT, COWBOY!

Capitalization and repetition are strong ways to get attention. I don't give a shit if anyone likes them or not, I'm using them anyways.

They may get attention, but they distract from what you're trying to say. I can only speak for myself, but I find it harder to listen to what you have to say when you do it in a juvenile way.

RoTN’s #115: Why don’t you want to lynch Lucresia anymore? That post is hardly a ringing endorsement of her.

Primarily because there were several people who suddenly seemed a lot more suspicious to me. I still think Lucresia's behavior has been suspicious so far this game, but its gotten less so in the last couple of pages, while the people on the ICE wagon seemed a lot more suspicious.

Now, back to looking for scum on that wagon. Its possible that Romanus pulling off the wagon is just an attempt to distance himself from the negative attention it was getting. His terseness and lack of consistent posting make it hard for me to read him.

Valern hasnt posted since I expressed my suspicions of them in Post #129, so there's nothing new to add there. Trendall's posts weren't significant, and haven't really changed my opinions in any way. Of the two, I'm currently most suspicious of Trendall.

Vote: Trendall

@RoTN: Can you give me links to a recent town and recent scum game of your’s? I need to meta you, but your wiki page seems outdated.

Well, it is outdated, but I haven't played in a very long time. These are the most recent games I could find, but I'm not sure how much it will help. One is five years old, and the other is three years old. Town. Mafia

[RangeroftheNorth]

Right now, I'm still more suspicious of Trendall than anyone else. His lack of useful content really isn't helping with that, and I'm going to need to see him post something more substantial before I change my vote. The overall lack of content is problematic as we aren't getting very much content out of the people I was already most suspicious of. I'm happy with where my vote is.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Peabody admitted he sheepishly voted Trendall, putting him at L-1, even though he wasn't actually suspicious of him at all. That really reeks to me. Peabody's attacks on Pine all game have seemed a little strange to me. They were incredibly adamant, even in the face of next to no evidence. Now, just a few posts after being called on his sheepish vote on Trendall by DarthYoshi, he's trying to backpeddle off of that wagon as best he can, while still advocating that we lynch Trendall.

I think Trendall would be a good lynch, and the posts in his own defense have been incredibly weak, but, right now, I think Peabody would be a better lynch.

Unvote
Vote: Peabody

Preview edit: It looks like other people have started the Peabody wagon in the time I spent typing/watching tv.

[RangeroftheNorth]

@Peabody: If you're aware that voting for someone without a good reason is anti-town, then why did you do it in the first place? You say that you were ok with lynching whoever the town thought was scum, which is just a way of attempting to absolve yourself of any responsibility for your actions. Your actions would have been highly advantageous for scum, making them extremely suspicious. You don't even really attempt to deny that.

I'd really like to see more content from Lucresia. Ever since the bandwagon on her ended, she's barely posted at all. She's been V/LA part of that time, but disappearing as soon as the spotlight is off her doesn't seem very pro-town.

Pine has been promising a good, content filled post for three days. I'd like to see that soon. He fixated on Peabody from the beginning, and, besides a few sentences dealing with Lucresia, and saying that he agreed with the arguments against Trendall, he really haven't been doing much scum-hunting or analysis.

Trendall has barely bothered to defend himself, and hasn't done any significant scum-hunting ever. I think I might have been premature in switching to the Peabody wagon. Trendall hasn't bothered to address any of the accusations that were brought against him. Trendall's Post #236, where he doesn't bother to discuss any of the things that are currently going on in the game, seems really scummy. Not so much the post itself, but the complete lack of posting that actually helps the town, while still making it clear that he's reading closely enough to pick out one statement inHim made that wasn't factually correct.

I would be happy with either a Trendall lynch or a Peabody lynch today. I'm also still suspicious of Lucresia and Valern, but I think Trendall or Peabody are more likely to be scum.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Unvote
Vote Trendall

Looks like more people support a Trendall lynch, and I'm fine with lynching either Trendall or Peabody.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I'm mostly waiting for everyone who has promised to catch up to do so. I'd also like to hear anything Trendall has to say either in his defense or about who he is suspicious of, although he may have completely given up at this point. The fact that Peabody is actually contributing to the game helps to tip the scales in favor of a Trendall lynch in my opinion.

If Trendall flips scum, I'm going to be taking a very good look at crazypianist. The connection between Trendall and Romanus on the ICE wagon seemed strange to me, and crazypianist deliberately said he was open to a Trendall or Valern lynch, but jumped on the Peabody wagon as soon as it developed without ever voting for Trendall. That could easily be scum willing to bus his partner, but preferring to start a different wagon.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Peabody

I still think Peabody is scum, and Pine coming up as a tracker only makes me more confident of that fact.

I'd like to hear a lot more from inHim today. Aside from his catch up post, he's been notably quiet, and the same has been true for every other player who has held the slot. That could be a coincidence, but I'm not willing to count on that.

[RangeroftheNorth]

EBWOP:
That should be

Vote: Peabody

[RangeroftheNorth]

@Valern: Your VCA could be accurate, but even if all of your assumptions are correct, that leaves quite a few possibilities for scum teams besides the one you mentioned, and I'm not sure I buy all of your assumptions. I think having two scum in any of those grouping is quite possible, although I would agree that its very unlikely all three are in one place.

Currently, my top two suspects are Peabody and inHim. Hearing from them would be very helpful. Personally, I think the third scum (taking Valern's assumptions about balance) would be one of {Quilford/Crazy}. Most of my suspicions on Quilford are due to Lucresia's actions, but I also found his protestations of Trendall's innocence a little strange, especially when he suddenly retracted them and voted Trendall. I can't pin down any one thing on Crazy. I'll reread a bit later and see what I come up with.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Or that he wasn't certain his result meant Peabody was scum, or that he didn't want to come on too strong and reveal that he was the tracker to the mafia. I'll admit that there's no sure sign that Pine ever targeted Peabody, but his attacks were very strong for the amount of evidence he had, and there's no sure sign he didn't target him either. My suspicions against Peabody aren't based on the assumption that Pine investigated him, but it does make me just a little more confident.

[RangeroftheNorth]

As I've already said, I think inHim is probably scum. I think the case against Peabody is better, but I'm perfectly happy with an inHim lynch. I'm going to wait until he provides his promised post before I switch my vote over.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Unvote

EA makes a good post, and I'm growing less suspicious of Peabody. (Questioning someone for NOT voting for you when you're one of the leading lynch candidates could be a scum gambit, but I find it more likely to be town.) Crazy's defense of inHim makes me more suspicious of both inHim and Crazy, both of whom were already high on my scum list. I will give inHim another day to post, but if he doesn't post tomorrow (today? Wednesday, at any rate) I'm going to vote him anyway.

@EA, see, when you make your points without excessive capitilization/repetition, its much more convincing

[RangeroftheNorth]

Vote: inHimshallibe

He makes a crappy post, he gets a vote. Refusing to defend himself does not somehow make you seem less scummy.
This is L-1

[RangeroftheNorth]

Alright, so my apologies. I didn't expect to be gone for the entire weekend, else I would have voted. No way to prove it, so I'll just say that one got away from me.

Basically, my slot has done next to nothing besides my catch-up work. To those calling out my methods... go suck an egg, I guess. I've operated that way from the beginning of time, I think. Now that I'm in the middle of the action, I hope you'll see the way things run with me are Town.

OK, enough about me.

Vote: inHimshallibe

He makes a crappy post, he gets a vote. Refusing to defend himself does not somehow make you seem less scummy.
This is L-1

Lol.

Let's be quick to jump to assumptions, amirite.

I wanted to wait until you had a chance to say something of substance before I voted for you. You had that chance, and you didn't say anything of substance. You didn't indicate you were immediately planning to make a more substantial post. Did I make assumptions about things you didn't actually say? Maybe, but then the post I was referring to didn't actually say anything useful.

The point I'd like you to address:
Who do you find suspicious today and why? My biggest problem is that your entire slot has been almost entirely devoid of scumhunting. You haven't changed that. Sure, you've identified some people you think might be pro-town, but other than identifying half the town as deserving to die, you haven't helped find scum at all. Despite your claims of "enough about me" meaning you were going to focus your attention on other people, that's still true. The extent of your contributions today that haven't been about you was a single question that you asked Peabody, the answer to which should have been apparent.

The other reasons I have for voting things aren't nearly easy for you to respond to: AMP's general lurking/lack of contribution and crazy's defense of you. I'm aware you can't give reasons for AMP's or crazy's actions, but both still make me very suspicious.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I will be V/LA until Sunday night. Depending on phone service, I may be able to read and post in limited amounts.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Vote: Crazypianist

Reasons should be obvious, but I'll post them in the morning anyway.

[RangeroftheNorth]

The main reasons I think crazy is inHim's partner are his defense of inHim here and here, followed by his retraction of that defense after other people pointed it out.

Yesterday, he seemed to be consistently looking for someone besides inHim to lynch, even after he said he was more convinced of inHim's scumminess.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Well I see I'm lynch candidate #1 for today.
All I can say regarding my actions yesterday is that I didn't feel that inhim and the rest of his slot's day 1 actions constituted a lynch. He then proceeded to be useless day 2 and thus I felt he should have been lynched for that.

@RotN: If you thought my pointing fingers at other people was scummy, point out where my reasons were flawed. I'm not going to let other people's scuminness slide under the carpet just because one person is prime for a lynch.

If you felt that he should have been lynched, why didn't you ever vote for him. Why did you attempt to refocus discussion as soon as a possible alternative lynch appeared? I still think that you were doing everything you could to avoid lynching inHim, while trying to look like you weren't trying not to lynch him. As for your reasoning:

Uh what? AMP was the only one discussing theory and not scumhunting. If it's so likely to discuss only theory at that stage, why was he the only one doing it?

He's a newb maybe? I'll give you this point but I don't think it justifies a lynch.

Overlooking scummy behavior because the player is a newb is very flawed reasoning. A newb scum is much less likely to know theory and tells, and is thus more likely to commit tells. Ignoring those tells because the player is new is a bad idea.

That's not scumhunting, that's worthless crap. I'm not talking about the catching-up, which I didn't even bother reading because for whatever reason, replacement catch-up posts

always

have a lower signal-to-noise ratio than Glenn Beck. I'm talking about the result inHim ends up at. He called half the living players scum. That's not an exaggeration, I mean literally half. Conveniently, pretty much everyone who was a plausible lynch candidate, save for Valern, showed up on the death list. Then he never filtered the list down to a usable number. Or attacked anyone on the list. Or did anything with it at all for that matter. He just made a preposterous scumlist and sat on his ass.

Yeah, and hey there can be a wagon on half the players in a game on any given day. It's possible to be suspicious of more people than there are scum as not everyone is a perfect townie. Regardless, you seem to have ignored this (inevitably as a result of you not reading his posts):

We ought to be lynching one of {Pine, Peabody, Lucresia, Trendall} today.

Now isn't that a usable number?

Its barely a usable number, and he didn't give any preference to any of the people on the list. Saying that you're perfectly happy to lynch a third of the town today without ever narrowing that down is scummy, if only slightly. Defending inHim's scumlist here would have been an odd choice if he had flipped town. Since he flipped scum, it makes me very suspicious.

Okay, I read all of D3 AND RBT's iso in that game, and I have one question: what the fuck does it have to do with anything at all in this game? RBT scumhunted right out the gate (albeit in that stupid cryptic bullshit way he always does) so his situation in that game has precisely dick in common with AMP's in this one.

RBT got lynched for lurking. Before the wagon, he had ~ 11 posts out of 400+, several of which weren't useful, which led people to believe he was lurking. As such, I get a bit worried over jumping the low post count gun.

I'll start to get antsy if inhim plays poorly today, but I'd rather wait for content today from him before I make that decision.

Using anecdotal evidence to attempt to show that something that clearly benefits scum isn't a scum-tell is at the very least bad reasoning. Clearly, not all lurkers are scum. A slot that lurks across three different players, whose only contribution to the game was a couple of catch-up posts and some theory discussion, and who isn't posting even after he's under pressure is at the very least bad for the town and likely to be scum. If you'd simply said "I'm not sure yet, I want to see what he posts," that would have been one thing. Actively defending him is something entirely different.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I think mass claim could be very helpful.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Popcorn works. I vote that Valern starts

[RangeroftheNorth]

VT.

[RangeroftheNorth]

On my phone, so I'm not doing a full post. The reason I'm not convinced by the case against Quilford is that when crazy was trying to divert the bandwagon on inHim, he tried to start one on quilford. It doesn't make much sense to try and save one scum partner by busing another. That said, there are other explanations (distancing, derailling the bandwagon without intending to lynch quillford.) I think I have a pretty good case against valern that I'll post tomorrow when I'm on my PC.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Alright, sorry for the delay.

I re-read everything today, and my case on Valern really isn't very good.

I've been getting a very strong pro-town read from Ice all game, and that hasn't changed. That said, I can see the points Quilford and Valern have made. If we go to lylo tomorrow, I'll take another very good look at him, but right now, I don't think he's the best lynch for today.

I think Quilford is most likely our last scum. What Ice said about crazy's self-hammer makes sense. If he was trying to use it to prove his own innocence, I wouldn't take it seriously, but I think its worth pursuing. Considering I don't have very good reasons to think Valern is scum, I'm almost certain that DRK is town, and Ice seems really town to me, Quilford seems like the best bet for today.

Vote: Quilford

[RangeroftheNorth]

I see what you're saying, but I don't see how that makes Quilford town. If he were scum, he'd know he would have a much better chance in lylo if he got Ice lynched today.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I'm here. I just don't have anything I feel needs to be said. I'm mostly waiting on DRK.

[RangeroftheNorth]

@Valern: You act incredibly certain that Ice is scum and Quilford is town. You've said it a couple times now. Why? You haven't really responded to Ice's points against Quilford, and both of your town tells on Quilford are pretty weak. Being unwilling to consider lynching you today would just be good play for scum Quilford, since you think he's town and Ice thinks he's scum. His commenting on EA's emote is pretty close to meaningless.

Your arguments against Ice are also pretty weak, although not as weak as your town-tells on Quilford. Never having been on a scum wagon doesn't really mean much, especially when it was obvious that inHim and Crazy were going to get lynched several RL days before they did. It would be surprising if scum DIDN'T bus in that situation. I'm certainly not as convinced that Ice is town as I was when the day began, but I also don't think the arguments that he's scum are very good either, and certainly not good enough for you to be as convinced as you are. I think you're tunneling on Ice. Its possible you're right, but you aren't considering alternatives.

[RangeroftheNorth]

At the moment, I'm leaning toward Ice scum. I'm not very confident about this, so I'll go through the game a couple more times. Valern's VCA didn't look very good for Ice, but I've found that VCA's can often be used to demonstrate exactly what their poster wants them to demonstrate.

Ice insisted a couple of times yesterday that he didn't think Crazy would have self-hammered without the last scum on the wagon. This clearly wasn't true, but I think this point still looks pretty good for Valern. Since Ice brought this point up, it doesn't really apply to him. Ice having not been on either of the scum wagons also doesn't look good.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Sorry. Really busy weekend. Content post coming later tonight.

[RangeroftheNorth]

So the more I re-read through everything, the more I get the feeling that Ice has consistently been trying to stay in the background and avoid attention, until day 4 when he was the last scum remaining. This was especially true days 2 and 3. During the time we were lynching scum, Ice was barely involved in the game. He wasn't on the bandwagons, even if he did express his willingness to hammer, but he also wasn't pushing alternate theories. Admittedly, pushing other wagons hard while scum is on the chopping block can be a big scum tell, but if a scum was hoping his partners wouldn't get lynched, but didn't want to draw attention to himself if they did, sitting in the background would be a much more subtle way to do it.

I will be setting aside time tomorrow to made a case.

Ice insisted a couple of times yesterday that he didn't think Crazy would have self-hammered without the last scum on the wagon. This clearly wasn't true, but I think this point still looks pretty good for Valern. Since Ice brought this point up, it doesn't really apply to him.

I used this as a point to lynch Quilford over Valern, but since the situation fits both of us, you can't really use it on one of us without the other. Just because I pointed it out doesn't change much, really.

It does change a lot, at least in my opinion. Bringing stuff up that applies to you and someone else as a reason why the other person probably isn't scum is a nice way for scum to make WIFOMy defensive arguments without getting WIFOM called.

Finally, I apparently got a lot of town cred for accidentally pointing out that I have no night activity when I was prodded. Everyone seems to have forgotten about that.

If you get points for that, Valern gets way more. From his first post:

Why was I prodded? -.-

Less than 24 hours after day 1 had started. Is it possible he hadn't posted in the scum QT for awhile? Sure. I actually noticed this yesterday while I was re-reading all of Valern's posts, and it was one of things that made me think he probably wasn't scum. You could easily have noticed that both Valern and Trendall claimed to have been prodded right after the game started, looked at the rules, figured out what it meant, and posted your claim to have been prodded in order to capitalize on that reason. Otherwise, I'm really not sure why you posted to inform us that you had been prodded during day 2, but not during day 1.

[RangeroftheNorth]

That's actually a pretty good strategy. You see I'm not likely to be convinced Valern is scum, so you decide to convince Valern that I'm scum. I'm convinced enough, and if Valern is scum, he's already won anyway.

Vote: ICEninja

[RangeroftheNorth]

Thank you, thank you very much.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Really

[RangeroftheNorth]

I was actually just a goon. It was pretty awesome. Valern actually pointed it out when you said you were prodded Day 2, and I realized that he was right, and that it also applied to you. It eliminated both of you as PRs by day 2, as well as Quilford. I guessed Peabody for the vig over DRK, particularly because of the kill on Pine, but it made a lot of difference in choosing to kill EA.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Well, you basically disregarded me as scum far too early. Even day 4, you didn't consider that I might be scum. There were a couple of times when Ice pointed out things like Crazy's self hammer and the prod notices that applied to both you and him, but not to me. Crazy DIDN'T self-hammer before his scum-buddy was on the wagon, and Ice made that point exactly, but neither of you ever applied it to me. Both of you had received prods right as the day started and I never had, but only Ice applied that to me, and only after I basically pointed it out.

I'm really not entirely sure why you and Ice and even DRK had such a strong town read on me, but I took advantage of it. Bussing crazy probably helped a lot, but it seemed pretty likely he was going down that day anyway, and I started the bandwagon on him because it seemed inevitable.

Scum QT is here.