Battle for Olympus - Game Over!

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Mothrax

Because my avatar kills his avatar ...

@SnowBunny

- Do you consistently vote the Mod in RVS, like UncertainKitten?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok .. now that we seem to be getting into some actual content ..

Point 1

– I’m going to do a partial claim. I am

Hated Townie

. Per standard conventions I require 1 less vote to lynch. I claim this for two reasons.

1. So there is no possible mistake on me being lynched due to a ‘Oops, I thought I was putting him at L-1’.
2. I can’t be around for LYLO / MYLO. As we potentially get closer I’ll need to be vigged or lynched if I haven’t already been killed so that something akin to Kise’s Square Enix 4 does not occur.

--

Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't. I usually do it on large games, though.

Ok … so you are going to make me wade through your completed games to look for trends? Sigh … off to your games list I go …

--

Delay of game. Clear infraction.

God damn it Dekes why are you softclaiming Zeebrus, the God of Blindness, Striped Shirts, and Referees? Now you are just asking for a NK

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@Gandalf

– Aside from potentially clogging up the thread with useless information I have a question on your survey theory –

Do you think you are going to be able to crack the ‘code’, as it were, that the Mods used to assign roles?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So looking through Snow’s completed games

–

East of Eden – RVS voted a player – Vanilla Town in game

Sly Cooper – RVS voted a player – Mafia Godfather in game (though she replaced out)

Ladies Night – First vote a player (although it was clearly not RVS) – Town Cop

Supernatural Mafia (Large Theme) – First vote a player (althoght it was clearly not RVS) – Town Paranoid Cop

Insane Asylum Mafia – RVS voted the Mod – Town Nurse in game (though she replaced out)

Picto Mafia 2 – First voted for a player (can’t tell if it was RVS but seems unlikely) – Town Tracker

Everyone’s a Hero Mafia – RVS voted for self – Town role

Greek Mythology Mafia – RVS voted a player – Town role

At this point I noticed only one Large Theme was present. So I went hunting exclusively for Large Themes …

Of Gods and Men – First vote for player (although it was clearly not RVS) - Mafia

Cross Edge Bastard – RVS voted for Mod – Town Tracker (I think … damn bastard games)

Karma Mafia – RVS voted a player - Slot was Vanilla Town (though she replaced out)

Mind Screw Mafia 4 – RVS voted for Mod - Town Inventor

Conclusion

- with a very small sample size it is not impressive but Meta leans towards a Mod vote in a Large Theme game as being a small Town tell for Snow-Bunny.

Well, at least I don't feel like I wasted half an hour doing that now ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

P-edit: MoI, USELESS POST. Just sayin'.

Actually I disagree since I was able to come to the conclusion that a Mod vote is a small meta Town tell for Snow Bunny. Recent events and past experience have shown that players without a propensity for doing a Mod / Invalid vote who open RVS with may be Scum-telling.

Additionally I usually find SnowBunny to be a lurky difficult read so any amount of info I can glean on her is helpful.

[MagnaofIllusion]

God ... I just realized I'm agreeing with Chesskid on SnowBunny. I think somewhere on of the Seven Seals just broke ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

That as a small meta tell is so easily manipulable it isn't even funny. :/

Feel free to disagree but I don’t perceive Snow Bunny as a player invested in ‘managing’ meta. And frankly if that was the case I would have expected at least 1 example of a Mod / Invalid vote in her games if that was the case. Going back basically at least a year we have none.

But no vote, or followup.

The thread has been open for less than 24 hours. How much follow-up do you expect when none of the players involved have posted since Gemini made ISO 37 an hour ago?

Preview Edit - Quadz you Ninja!!!!

[MagnaofIllusion]

rolefishing like a champ btw

So who again is role-fishing? I'm confused since your post lacks any attribution. And if its Gandalf why unvote him?

Any more takers?
Does Chesskid have any more shots?
FIND OUT

Actually I want to find out if you even had one ‘shot’. I’m guessing no but let’s see …

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Hi, everyone. Time for some Götterdämmerung I guess.

So you invoke mythology from the Norse Mythos when clearly the scum element is Non-Greek Gods? Scumtastic.

UNVOTE: Mothrax
VOTE: ShadowDancer

[MagnaofIllusion]

I take Magna as confirmed town, based on his claim.

This is what I call a Plum-tell … specifically from Andy’s last Mini Game LOTR.

1. Pick out a stronger player not on your scum-team you know is Town.
2. Find some flimsy excuse to call them obv-Town or confirmed.
3. ?????
4. Profit

Except the ???? is you getting lynched for botched buddy-up.

Plum pulled this exact move with a Fate-hydra in LOTR and eventually got lynched for it.

Ranger has it right – my claim far from confirms me as Town.

My vote looks very good where it is.

Doesn't this feel a bit like a prequel to you?

Did you miss the part where both pre-game dead bodies were Greek mythos gods / figures? Or the part in either the sign-up or original advertising that Andy specifically said the Greek Mythos was the Town faction?

I’m pretty sure your role-Pm didn’t tell you …

[MagnaofIllusion]

LC’s reaction to Gemini’s question and SnowBunny’s vote is Town.

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I want a nameclaim

To quote the Princess Bride – “Get used to disappointment”.

There is no Pro-Town reason for me to claim any more than I already have. Town has all the information they need to avoid mistakes while scum has no extra information.

BTW, I put this up top so you wouldn’t have to complain about reading.

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OhwowI'msofamous. I'm going to have to agree with you that, when applied correctly, this sort of buddying can be a concrete scumtell. So it's good he's been offed (???).

Are you seriously telling me that you bought Chess’s ‘Tarp’ as real?


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You know what a figuratiive meaning or a metaphor is, Magna, right? It's not the exact literal meaning. Of course this is not Ragnarök. But there will be a great many of dead deities at the end of this.

Of course I do. Please don’t presume that you are much smarter than everyone else in the room because you aren’t.

The “Wrong Pantheon” angle was simply a way to kick off pressure on you. Anyone who sited that (and I will mention one specific person later in this post) as a good reason for a vote is scummy also.

Why my vote is a good vote has everything to do with the Plum-tell which you completely avoided in this initial response. Also you've begun a series of nitpicky attacks (going after Ranger for being 'mysterious', attacking CMAR on what is cleary a typo) as opposed to honestly scum-hunting.

That's really bad WIFOM. Sacraficing a scum member right away to maybe gain some slight influence on some easily impressed townie is hardly an advantageous tactic for scum. Not convincing.

You need to clarify what you are saying here. Who is the scum member being sacrificed and who are the easily impressed Townies?

Did you really just say cumslip O_o?!!?!? Twice!?

Anyway interesting how you come go all the way from "cumslip" via "reaching for" to "townfight"? Seems all over the place.

1. What scum-hunting purpose is there in pointing out a funny but otherwise innocuous typos in his post?
2. He’s pointed out that his statement makes clear sense and I overall agree. He’s calling “Wrong Pantheon” slip not a slip (it isn’t so he’s correct), says anyone pressing you on that issue is ‘reaching’, and that your interaction with Ranger is a Town on Town (this is the one aspect I don’t like as labelling an argument Town v Town so early is pulling a Zang). It is hardly all over the place.

--

Also, one more thing and then I will probably leave you alone - do you have any prior experience that makes you think this is a scum tell?

You specifically asked this of LC but I am going to give you some insight. I personally have seen scum on multiple occasions specifically avoid voting any player in RVS. Two examples are IdiotKing in Prison Mafia and Tclaw in Magua’s recently ended Donner Party Part 2 Open game. Neither had an established history of making those kinds of votes. This is why I investigated SnowBunny’s history.

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I don't think that the him calling MoI town is necessarily scummy as I happened to do the same thing right up there ^ However I considered the possibility of him being scum, I just say that we need to consider him town so I guess there is a small difference.

You’ve more or less hit the nail on the head but I want to clarify why I find SD’s statement scummy. Everyone else is exercising some level of scepticism even if they find it is a Pro-Town move. Shadow has none of that in his post – he calls me Confirmed, which is stronger language than logically should have been employed.

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If chess really has a daykill, I might smack the mods.

Why? You are voting Shadow so you think he’s scummy. Chesskid fake-killed said scummy player. I don’t see why the daykill (which was obv-fake BTW) would be problematic in Chess’s hands under this set of circumstances.

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Vote SD

Lets start with the person who raises the wrong mythology.

If we decide not to lynch ShadowDancer here is where my vote is immediately moving.

1. Lack of content in post when there is already plenty to discuss? Check.
2. Horrible bandwagon vote for the absolute wrong reason? Check.

FOS – BabySpice

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@Chess I can think of another hated god but I'm not sure how far we're getting if we supply MoI with names before he's had a chance to claim it. Why exactly someone's already offered another name, I fail to understand.

Let’s discuss some, shall we AV?

I’m not name or full or whatever claiming. The explanation to Chess above is exactly why.

But I want to get into your thought process here. You don’t know why people are supplying me with names? That sounds all nice and Pro-Town on the surface. But looking deeper it’s either bad logic or posturing.

1. We are in a game specifically crafted with Greek Gods and mythological figures as Town.
2. A mass claim would break the game unless the standard counter-measure is used – Mod provided fake claims.

Are you suggesting that scum don’t have Mod provided fake-claims? If you do think they have them and think I was gambitting scum I'd already have a name provided as safe and thus your statement above isn't logical at all.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If that trend follows, then there might not be a huge amount of risk in "Name" claiming. And it forces the scum to lie or use up whatever fake claims they have been given, which is something. Potential downside is if (1) there are scum roles that get advantaged by knowing someone's role-name (2) possibility that the bigger names have the best powers and also then become high profile targets (3) if all the scum have prefect safe claims, we've not actually accomplished much.

All of these (and more I’m sure but I’m too lazy to work on them with this list already made) are reasons why a Mass-name claim would likely be bad.

If anyone knows the ways these particular mods have handled this issus in the past that might answer the question right there.

Andrius in Themed games has a history of providing fake-claims – those of you who didn’t play in LOTR Mafia should know he provided a list of available options and would flesh out PMs as needed. The total fake-claim names exceed the amount of scum roles.

Dana has a history of providing fake-claims for each scum player when necessary. See Blackest Night Mafia where each scum member had a Color / Name available to them. In that case the mechanics of the game made those fake-claims rather weak but every scum got a fake-claim.

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You want an answer why your so caled "Plum-tell" is invalid.
i. Because it's based on one single incident.
ii. Because I am not Plum.

I was wondering if you would go this way. Neither of those arguments holds any water.

The tell in itself is very common – buddying. It’s not a “single event” or only something Plum does / is capable of. Just because I dressed it up in fancy clothes because your use matches well with Plum’s doesn’t suddenly make it not buddying.

So no, it isn’t based on a ‘single incident’ and isn’t invalid because you aren’t Plum.

Scum member would be you. Easily impressed townie would be any one who's blindly following you due to your supposed confiremd town status.

Your argument breaks down then as you were the only player to suggest I was confirmed in the least. And you clearly aren’t following me.

Zero. None. Nada. It's just plain funny.

Ok, so it was pure fluff. Understood.

How do you know which supposed "scumslip" he adresses, he doesn't say so specifically.

1. The accusations against you at that stage when CMAR posted were two-fold – firstly that you ‘slipped’ and didn’t realise Greek Gods were Town because you were scum and second that you buddied up. CMAR addresses the buddying angle as Null so he can only be referring to the Pantheon slip.

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Baby is looking plain awful. That sheep vote is as bad as it can get, but I rather like my vote on SD for now.

Oh, and small FoS: Axelrod. I'll elaborate on this later on. It's weak now, more like a small gut feeling. But I want to leave this here noted.

Hey since you don’t want to elaborate on why Axel is suspicious (and Pro-Tip pretty much everything is a small deal this early) why don’t you articulate why you like SD as scum. Because I’d like to see what specifically you like about him as scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

You know what this thread needs?

More Chronopie, AGar, Iecrint, Dekes and Baby Spice!!!!

[MagnaofIllusion]

So how about this one: Your whle argument is based on the preassumption that I was in deed buddying scum - in case I am not the whole things falls apart to "I don't agree with Shadow -> Shadow is scum." And that should make you reconsider the whole thing twice.

I’ve observed you displaying a behavior that I have seen scum do many times over in the past – specifically buddying up to someone with little reasoning. In this case you didn’t just say “Oh, MoI is likely Town based on his claim”. Nope. You said I was CONFIRMED Town. I capsed and bolded the important word for you. The level of 'read' you are showing is not in any logical proporation to the reasons you give for said read. I haven’t seen anything significant from you since that is having me question that read.

How does my argu7ment break down there? It leads to the valid deduction that I am not an easily impressed townie right now.

I breaks down because it applies to not a single player in the game. You were using it to attack Ranger in your short-lived vote on him. It's an invalid argument.

I don't see much sense in discussing with you, what Cry meant.

Then why did you bring it up in the first place?

SD – “How do you know what Cry was saying????”
MoI – “For this reason it was the logical conclusion”
SD – “I don’t see the point of discussing it with you!!!”

That’s exactly the sequence we just had. I’ve played with you before at some point SD and don’t remember you being so Pants on Head ….

Do you normally flail under pressure?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So Shadow has claimed a very prominent role in the game and AGar has role-vouched that he isn’t fake-claiming (barring a Posedien counter-claim from a lurker).

UNVOTE: ShadowDancer

AGar has linked himself to Shadow if Shadow isn’t Town. At this stage I’m don’t think it is worth pressuring either any further.

Axelrod’s 178 smells of fake-Townie posturing. It’s chock full of obvious information (quicklynching isn’t always good …we need to take it slow) that really didn’t need spoken.

Gandalf’s 223 to 224 makes my head hurt. In 223 he continues to push the concept that one of the Big Three are a fake-claim which has been the hallmark of his ‘don’t buy SD’s claim’ commentary. In 224 he says he trusts AGar … who already cleared SD.

Diddin’s reactions post pressure I’m going to have to do some meta-research on. I’m not sold that diddin’s Chesskid vote was anything but stupid-Town reaction but 244 screams “Hey look … I’m scumhunting”.

@Diddin

– You found AV as contributing no original content. What made him a better vote than Chronopie or Iecerint who have contributed arguably just as little if not less content than AV?

My vote will be going on either BabySpice, diddin or CMAR pending responses to some of my questions in this post.

--

Got ninja'd four times for that post, and a scumtell is a scumtell reguardless of how many point it out.

Way to go Diddin. Make the sus wagon on you look good. Well done that lad.

But you didn’t vote him even though you say he’s making the wagon on him look good? And then a few posts later you choose instead to vote LC for no reason other than Chesskid said so?

Scummy as hell. As is your response 271 where you attempted to justify your bad SD vote based on flavor spec when it has been made clear it can’t possibly be a scum-tell.

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And if it would help, my Role PM has a pale pinky colour.

Eager to offer up something that probably has no significance unbidden? Check.

Chess may be on to something here …

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CMAR had a lot of cognitive dissonance in his posting about SD, which was the main backing for my vote,

I love me some Cognitive Dissonance as a solid scum tell. Lay me out where you are seeing it please AGar.

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One reason I can think of is because you have a power that makes you revive and become stronger, so perhaps he WANTS to be killed at some point.

ITT Gemini mistakes Greek Mythology with DragonBallZ or Superman mythology (specifically Doomsday).

Lulz. Yes this is pure fluff.

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What color is your rolename and such in, please?

Why do you think this is important at all, especially given the different colors associated with the ‘Town’ pre-game deaths?

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The most prominent gods are more likely in the game and thus not scum fake claims...

Pointless outguessing the Mod. You need to spend less time worrying about set-up and more time actually looking for scummy play if you are indeed Town.

SD’s 195 is more pointless speculation. Where you grab 40+ roles I have no idea. This clearly isn’t a normal U-Pick. Very likely that Mods made the set-up and slotted people based on the questionaiire. Further the multiple Cop roles in the mini have little to do with this set-up.

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Two of my scummates in KoL Mafia could fakeclaim two of the Ancient Heroes from that game.

Umm, no they couldn’t. Those were their roles, not fake-claims. It would have simply been outguessing the Mod that source flavor = game flavor.

--

@MoI
Nice way to avoid the natural N1 kill, btw.

This makes me itch. I don’t like the very soft implication it is a gambit or done for any reason other than to make Town fully aware of the situation.

@Dekes

– please explain how you think the claim (and only the claim) somehow reduces my chance of being NKed.

Baby Spice's vote was definitely the worst attempt at clinging to a forced RVS vote. More input needed.

Unvote; Vote: CMAR

Good wagon. But I want everyone to consider joining a diddin wagon for me. And that latest post wasn't even needed for claiming scum, diddin.

Conditional relationship noted – if BabySpice ever flips scum Dekes seems like a very smart place to start looking for a partner.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey magna before all your walls can you indicate if there's anything about me at the top so I know if I do/don't have to read it?

TIA

Don't worry Chess. I know your propensity for being worthless vis-a-vi reading actual game content so I'll slot anything directly at you right at the top so you can see it.

That way you don't have to let logic get in the way of whatever it is you do.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@AGar –

I wouldn’t call the Coginitive Dissonance but I see where you are going there. I have similar thoughts on him being scummy for those quotes in light of the working assumption that SD is Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – I’ll be V/LA from Friday at 4pm EST until Monday morning for Easter weekend and my usual family weekend duties.

Consider me less than impressed with Iec’s catch-up post. I’ve seen him do them before as Town before and they usually consist of more content (reasons why, etc) for his reads and didn’t suffer from having approximately 25% of game relevant text being struck-through.

CMAR’s 294 strikes me as an exercise in uselessness. We understand all that you made the point of highlighting CMAR. The issue I see is the MOTIVATION for soft-defending SD.

--

Crap, forgot to unvote.

VOTE: Diddin

And look you did it again. Going to get stuck in some Groundhog Day style cycle?

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^Because I also agree with this, MoI.

However I noticed something about Gemini in ISO. They have 3 FoS's and have expresses suspicion on a few others. They have NEVER voted. Looks like someone doesn't want to be called out for wagoning.

Unvote Vote: Gemini

1. Why didn’t you mention said post when describing why you voted AV originally?
2. So you agree with Gemini’s posts regarding AV and suddenly noticed that the hydra hadn’t voted yet which they specifically addressed in several posts was going to happen since they are a hydra? And that is vote-worthy?

EBWOP: @MOI: At the time I voted AV, all Iece did was post in RVS and Chrono was still catching up.

To put it bluntly … so what? Lack of content is lack of content. How do you know AV wasn’t catching up? Why is only posting in RVS an excuse?

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Magna - it was potentially a piece of information worth using as a basis for comparison and fleshing things out. I did notice the different colors in the pre-game character deaths and, comparing them with my own color information, thought that a color-claim at this time could potentially help confirm or weaken the claim in the eyes of at least specific player-roles.

1. Again, with expected Mod provided Fake-claims how do you expect to catch any scum?
2. Isn’t asking for a mass color claim just potentially giving scum a free pass to more effectively hunt for roles they might think are more dangerous?

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He says he's happy with his vote on Baby Spice, citing her pushing the blame for voting Chronopie instead of LC onto her children.

Go and look at the initial vote from Baby please.

Chess says at 270 thet “Chronos isn’t leaning Town”.
Baby in post 272 says “Agree. Nothing in what he has posted reads as Town” and votes Chronopie.

Ostensibly the second sentence in 272 means Baby has reviewed Chronopie’s ISO. Yet when you yourself question it she simply says “My mistake” and changes her vote to LC.

That doesn’t read to me as Town who made a mistake and when informed went back to recheck. That reads to me as Baby trying to buddy up to Chess’s reads and blowing it big-time. BabySpice does have a history as scum of buddying, BTW.

VOTE: BabySpice. The exercise of this discussion solidifies my read I formed based on her earlier play.

Explain the scum motivation for shifting the game to a non-game entity to me, cause I think that it's a huge reach.

Pretty easy actually. Voting for someone other than a player allows scum to RVS without fear of identifying a partner or clearing Town. Also it prevents tit-for-tat OMGUS RVS votes which have led to real wagons in the past.

Certainly not overwhelmingly strong motivations but certainly not non-existent either.

[MagnaofIllusion]

BS is near lynch can we chill plz kthx?

BabySpice has 7 votes. 11 are needed to lynch. Hardly the time for "CHILLAX EVERYBODY".

Do you object with her being wagonned for reasons other than your personal wagon is being ignored?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I've got no problem with the lynch, though it would be my first choice.

What I have a problem with is it's the loleasy wagon and some of the people who have hopped on make me seriously doubt ole Babah Spice is going to flip scum

Whut? You have no problem with a potential Baby lynch but you doubt she's flip scum??????

And if you see people who you think are scum on the wagon point out who and why.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think that sentence was referring to LordChronos (as in, she went back and read LC's posts) and then proceeded to accidentally vote for Chronopie. But that's besides the point anyway; I'm not saying that BS isn't scummy. Rather, LC's reasoning for confirming his vote was really poor, and felt forced and scummy.

I think you missed my point here. (For one, "game" should be "blame," which probably doesn't help.) I was pointing out that there's no scum motivation for BS to say "My kids distracted me so I typed the wrong player's name."

I disagree with your assessment. I can't see some 'mistyping' LordChoronos into Chronopie when being distracted. Their names are clearly distinct.

I believe that Baby saw Chess's post, pretended to ISO said player, and voted for the wrong one. When called on it she said 'Oops, kids distracted me'. If she had ISOed LordChoronos I have serious doubts she's accidently vote Chronopie.

I do fully admit my views may well be colored by my suspicion. But I still don't think it's the kind of mistake you make when distracted.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Just making sure. This caution is a slight scumtell, but I was just curious to see if you were voteless.

BACK TO BS

unvote, Vote: Baby Spice

Back to the vote you sandwiched between AV and Gemini? It couldn't be possibly because it is the top wagon, am I right?

UNVOTE: BabySpice
VOTE: diddin

[MagnaofIllusion]

Gandalf’s 342

makes me face-palm. Gandalf are you seriously this lost in a game without Fate that this is going to be the result?

Quadz’s 344

is scummy. With several players who are actively being scummy you suddenly are Ok with what you feel is a Town lynch? Really?

Quadz’s 410

is also scummy.

Iecerint’s 382

– so you don’t approve of either Top current wagon (Baby or diddin)?. I’ll go back and look at SA3 to see if you actually pushed BabySpice.

Iecerint’s 387

is pretty scummy. You are using incomplete meta to vote a player? On the heels of Chesskid’s call? Possible distancing noted if LC is scum (which I don't buy)

--

now
movign along to the next order of business
I want LordChronos at L-3 please thanks

Then do a better job of explaining why he’s scum. So far you are failing at it. Asking players to justify not pressuring him as scum when BabySpice and diddin are flying around doesn’t cut it.

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"Hi, I'm diddin, and I've been tunneling Chess all game even though he's actually been useful and playing decently."

Hmmm … what does this post lack? That’s right .. any stance that diddin is actually scummy for doing so. This is at best stupid mudslinging fluff. Pending knowledge of diddin’s alignment it also has possibilities of soft distancing.

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No. It is too weak, not worthy enough now, but it is something.

No .. if you don’t think it is strong enough to mention it isn’t anything. Stop wasting our time with this.

--

The following posts illustrate why I will support an SD wagon if there comes sufficent evidence that we face a non-compatible 3rd Party in the game.

@Gemini: I won't discuss any bullshit issue any more. Lynch me or lynch me not based on my claim. Your decision.

@Charon: And thanks for really seriously invoke the impression that you put this up because my clain would have faultily confirmed. You know, if some wannabe smartasses lynch me now, that's way too close to a mod error.

Pre-Mod correction of the rules he leans so heavily on the fact that his claim confirms him and this reaction are suspect. The reaction to the Mod correction is not in proportion to the "damage" done. He is in no danger of being lynched today. AGar's claim confirms that still despite the Mod correct. Add in his reaction to each little vote lately and I don't have any sort of Town read.

All that said -

He’s certainly not the lynch for today since he CAN’T be Mafia.

@SD

– Your play has been craptacular. Stop whining and start scum-hunting if you aren’t some 3rd party role.

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Umm considering I got off that top wagon to pressure Gemini, it's not just because it's the top wagon. I still consider BS the scummiest player.

I see you completely dodged my questions at 305. Here – I’ll requote them for you so you ABSOLUTELY can’t miss them.

1. Why didn’t you mention said post (Gemini’s post casting suspicion on AV) when describing why you voted AV originally?
2. So you agree with Gemini’s posts regarding AV and suddenly noticed that the hydra hadn’t voted yet which they specifically addressed in several posts was going to happen since they are a hydra? And that is vote-worthy?

To put it bluntly … so what? Lack of content is lack of content. How do you know AV wasn’t catching up? Why is only posting in RVS an excuse?

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Because no scum in their right mind will waste a kill on somebody that has to be killed by the town sooner or later.

Yeah I see this explanation all the time, more often regarding Millers. It doesn’t hold water. Dayplay > Role. If the Mafia feels a player is a big enough threat to them that they can’t get easily lynched they will NK them. Role or not. I only have to go the Night before MYLO / LYLO. I do a good enough job of hanging / pressuring scum and that deadline gets further and further back.

About the Baby Spice wagon. Basically what chess said. The wagon flew right past diddin's wagon which makes me even more confident in diddin-scum. Luckily people seem to be coming to their senses.

Once again – if BabySpice is scum kill Dekes with fire. I don’t recall seeing any mention of how SD’s wagon went ‘too fast’ (which is HORRIBAD reasoning, BTW).

Why is the BS-wagon still that big?

Why ask obv-questions? She’s been scummy as hell –

1. Jump on to SD for the scummy reason – the whole “Other Mythos” crap that was just used as a RVS springboard and was in NO WAY an alignment tell.
2. Calling a player (diddin) scummy but not voting them and then jumping (incorrectly) on another bandwagon because someone asked them to do so.

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But you didn’t vote him even though you say he’s making the wagon on him look good? And then a few posts later you choose instead to vote LC for no reason other than Chesskid said so?

Scummy as hell. As is your response 271 where you attempted to justify your bad SD vote based on flavor spec when it has been made clear it can’t possibly be a scum-tell.

What makes it impossible MoI? Would that be Agar's comment on the topic well after my vote?

I quoted the whole thing to demonstrate I didn’t use the word impposible anywhere.

Dodge dodge dodge BabySpice. You don’t directly address the issues.

1. You called diddin scum (since he was making his wagon look good aka valid) and didn’t bother to vote for him. Yet you were more than willing to hop (incorrectly) onto a wagon based on a single Chess post.

But they can make you confuse Chronus with Chronopie when you go to check spelling LC.

Why in the hell would you bother replacing LC with anything when posting to this game? LC is a clear indicated of one player – Lord Chronos. A Vote: LC post is much more unambiguous than what you did, supposedly by accident.

--

1. It's possible various color-groups will be able to determine whether a given color claim is plausible or not. This depends on how color information varies in the Role PMs. It's possible it will do little to help in any given instance, but when someone is run up and pressed to claim I see no general downside to color-claiming as well, even if the information payoff is less likely.

At best this sort of speculation MIGHT be usefull much later in the game when he have more data to use. Day 1 it is pointless mechanic speculation that doesn’t benefit Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

No, fate actually fucks up my reads. I do MUCH better without him, and this is something I actually have empirical evidence of.

Then let’s discuss your read on SD. First the facts –

1. SD has claimed Poseiden – Town JK effectively.
2. AGar has claimed role-based info that confirms Poseiden is actually in the game.
3. Mod has confirmed that Greek Gods CANNOT be Mafia, but may be some nebulous 3rd party role.

So unless AGar was willing to lie to get his Mafia partner off (which I doubt very highly he would do so early Day 1) SD can’t be Mafia. Either that or AGar would have to be completely stupid Town to lie about that. AGar isn't stupid.

That leaves the only non-Town realistic possibility about SD is 3rd Party.

1. Claiming Jailkeep makes little sense as a Serial Killer from a Power standpoint. Firstly it doesn’t USUALLY match the powers available to the role. I’m not ruling out 100% that a Serial Killer couldn’t have a role-blocking secondary power.
2. Claiming Jailkeep puts SD directly in the line of sight of the Mafia team as Serial Killer. Even with expected NK protection that isn’t a good spot. All it takes is the first caught scum who know SD is Bulletproof to state so in thread.

In summary I’m saying that even if your gut on SD is right and he is the Serial Killer he isn’t getting lynched today for the above reasons. Pick another scummy player to press and come back to SD when evidence suggests we have a Serial Killer floating around.

--

I didn't push her, really, but I thought she was scum back then. I think my replace-in posts will reflect it IIRC. The relevant part is that there is a difference in my impression (i.e. whether I pushed my scum reads as a town player in the past seems pretty irrelevant to me, at least).

The push element goes to credibility of your statements, IMO. As to your impression – is using a single game of Meta the backbone of your reasoning? What do you think about the elements of her play I laid out briefly in 474?

I didn't like any of the existing wagons, so CK's pressure request looked good to me. The meta information was just a bonus.

So CK floats into the thread and says “Iecerint is scum, we need to put him at L-3” and it makes sense to just vote that way because you don’t like the two leading wagons? I don’t think so.

Why is LC scum? Haven’t seen anything significant from anyone on the issue and I have a gut Town read so far based on his SnowBunny thoughts and Gemini interaction.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MoI:

I don't care what logic says

. I'm looking at SD's actions, and they don't make sense from the perspective of a town role. They're EXACTLY what I would expect from third party. Also, in a vanillaless game, fakeclaiming JK has little risk. I AM SAYING: TOMORROW, IF WE DO NOT LYNCH SD, AN EXTRA TOWNIE DIES

I've bolded why I'm not going to listen to you for an extended period of time. You've not bothered to explain why SD being 3rd Party ASSURES he is a Serial Killer. Come back when you can make a reasonable attempt at communication.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Eh? I don't make cases.

True story ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’m having a hard time getting an Iec read. His posts are stuffed full of laziness and not scum-hunting, as evidenced by his 498 as of late. It certainly doesn’t scream the Iec as Town I’ve come to expect. I’m going to have to look over my Iec as scum experiences to see what I can take from that.

Aside from BabySpice and diddin I’m at this juncture willing to vote Dekes. Mothrax, or Quadz if a wagon of any size can be formed. Do not have a Town read on them at all.

Chronopie’s choice to push diddin (lead wagon) over BabySpice at 518 when both are scummy establishes possible linkages.

--

And my point is that I'm tired of losing games because people are figuring out shit logically instead of following their gut.

I’d like a sample of games where following logic has lost you the game.

--

Uuhh... All those walls. I have a headache. Maybe later...

Go die in a fire …

Reading isn’t a hardship. Your play this game is so increadibly Anti-Town (which is only bad if you aren’t scum) it boggles my mind.

AGar’s pass o’ freedom only extends so far. Continue to play this way and I’ll throw logic out the window and get you lynched.

--

1. I only saw it on a second skim, but agreed with it.

So we’ve come full circle to my original question. You’ve just stated that you didn’t see Gemini’s post until after you voted AV. So we are back to the reason you voted AV to begin with – lack of content. What characterized AV’s lack of content as scum driven compared to Chronopie or other lurkers?

2. I saw it. I just don't and didn't like all the extreme caution coming from the hydra. I also dislike how they voted in the post replying to my suspicion for not voting. Thy crumbled under my pressure.

Caution isn’t a scum-tell. Stop pretending it is.

Do you still think AV was scummy based on Gemini’s point (which you agreed with) if you now have a scum read on Gemini?

How did they ‘crumble’ to your ‘pressure’? Please provide examples.

--

Hey chesskid, can you provide real content instead of worrying about prods? I would be more likely to agree with your reads if you provided some backing for them. You aren't Fate.

This reaction which occurs approximately 10 minutes after Chess calls for his prod is suspect.

A1: not mad

he called me out on lurking, good on him, however, it ain't his job to keep up w/ prods

. If he had been providing content, I would give less than a rat's ass.

The soft acknowledgement in the bolded that he was lurking is scummy. Chess isn’t wrong for calling him on it … chess is wrong because ‘it isn’t his job’ and he’s not providing content.

--

I'll buddy regardless in a large. It's a way to survive D1. (See Locke's wrestling mafia if you doubt me)

Let’s examine this statement. BS is saying that in a Large Game she will buddy to survive.

1. Not a Pro-Town thought process to be more worried about survival than scum-hunting.
2. Who would you buddy as Town? Scum to prevent a NK? Can you demonstrate a history of being killed early that would justify that sort of play as Town?
3. You also buddy as scum in Larges. See Stars Aligned 3. Null self-meta defenses are useless, IMO.

MoI #474. argueing semantics and synonoms instead of reasonings. Bad MoI.

Deflect deflect deflect. You’ve failed to answer the central question – why would you spell check away LC when it is a clear indicator of Lord Chronos?

I also find it interesting that you have the phrase “Spelling is an optional extra” in your sig when you are claiming to be spell-checking your posts ….

You also haven’t been able to justify why you didn’t vote diddin after calling him scum.

UNVOTE: Diddin
VOTE: BabySpice

I think my vote was better placed where it was originally.

--

I suddenly feel very uneasy about diddin and BS lynches.

I'm also of the opinion that Gandalf is probably just really, really stupid town in this case.

Fantastic. Who is scum? Having a hard time seeing any significant suspicions from your ISO.

--

I think first and foremost, BS is a bad player. Confusing the two Chrono's is entirely possible. But she said she doesn't want to get diddin lynched. What scum wouldn't want the counterwagon get lynched, especially if so many things are speaking for diddin-scum?

1. Yup. Bad players can’t possibly be scum. Noted.
2. Since you miss the obvious possibility they are partners I’ll just stuff this into my further pile of BabySpice defense from you and ignore the WIFOM here.

We have 20 players all equipped with two kinds of powers. I highly doubt that there isn't some form of vig in there. Like others suggested let the vig deal with BS and we focus on lynching scummier people.

And sure as hell in a 20 player game with all sorts of powers there is no possibility that scum might have a protective role, right? Right? Thought so.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MoI: LOTR Mafia. Advance Wars Mafia that recently ended(although technically we won/drew by accident).

LOTR Mafia was not lost due to 'logic'. Fate's play was anything but logical. LOTR was lost by the combination of incomplete information and ego.

Any other examples?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Uh, yes it is. Logic only produces accurate output if it has accurate input. Gut instinct is based purely on yourself, and you know your motives are pure. So yes, I do think that logic in a non-open setup is useless.

Lulz. All I can say is lulz.

--

MoI, nice mis rep, again.

Correcting your faulty meta read of me is not a null meta defense. It's showing your lies.

again you deflect and actually you yourself don't answer the question.

I don’t have a meta read on you Baby. I don’t know why you keep saying I do. Showing that your self-pronouncements about meta are invalid isn't a meta read. I have a scum-read because you are paying very scummy.

What question am I dodging again? The one about SD’s Norse Mythos comment not possibly being a scum-tell? It’s clearly not possibly as slip for the following reasons, which I’ve made clear before.

1. In this game the Greek Gods are MOD confirmed Town. Mods have repeatedly confirmed that other Mythos Gods are scum. Mod are going to ‘guaranteed’ have safe-claims for scum. Otherwise a Day 1 mass claim breaks the game. Both Mods have documented history of providing full safe-claims. So there is NO WAY that the scum could possibly not understand that any other Gods are Town. Thus SD's comment about Ragn. just a Null-tell.

Now once again I’m going to ask you all the questions you’ve dodged / deflected in one spot.

Not answering is a direct scum claim from you.

1. Why did you spell check LC into Chronopie when LC is a nicely clear indicator of the player in question in the first place.
2. Why did you suspect LC? Specific reasons are required.
3. Why didn’t you vote diddin at ISO 2 when you said he was “making the sus wagon on you look good” and you had no active vote?

--

1. Even by the highest stretch of imagination I didn't say or imply that. I know too well that bad players can be scum. I learned that the hard way. You can't give me a solid reason why scum-BS would object the diddin-wagon, when it's clear that no matter what one flips it doesn't exonerate the other. They're scummy for independent reasons. So you brush it off as WIFOM.

I gave you one quite clearly in the post you are responding to … they are partners together. Now you are out-of-hand dismissing a possibility. Of course they are scummy for independent reasons. That doesn’t mean they can’t be partners. Your reaction is why I suspect you.

1. You say BabySpice is a bad player.
2. You say they are scummy for independent reasons.
3. You are trying to argue that BabySpice can’t be scum because he’s just a bad player and he has no reason to not push diddin’s wagon. Clearly he has a reason if they are partners. Or, for that matter, if he wants someone to be able to say “Look, he isn’t jumping on the alternate wagon, he must be Town”. That you are willing to just dismiss her scummy play I find suspect.

Since no town role will protect BS, if at some point a vig claims a failed killing attempt on BS, she goes down, easy as that. Why wouldn't scum use the opportunity to bus the hell out of scum-BS and her atrocious game now?

Yes, so the you are advocating the Vig out themselves if they shoot BS and fail in a power-role rich game where any number of possibilities exists for why the shot failed. That’s bad reasoning.

What makes you assume that none of the votes on BS aren’t from scum?

And what do you make of the large levels of resistance to a BabySpice wagon as compared to the ease with which ShadowDancer was brought to L-1?

[MagnaofIllusion]

we're lynching town today
calling it now

Thanks for scum-telling for us Chess. And in such an obv-manner.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Meh. It all feels so much like lynch the usual VIs... D0s...

Here's a question - WHO IS SCUM?

All you've done is play badly, get run up, and then coast on AGar's clear of you.

If you think the candidates up for lynch are Town why aren't you doing ANYTHING to find scum and lynch them instead?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Have some faith and patience.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The fact that he can only be scum if he's the SK doesn't mean he's not scum. What you guys are doing is essentially AtP.

No that’s not happening. At all. Do

YOU

know what an Appeal to Probability is? An Appeal to Probability is saying “The odds that the Town Cop scanned a Miller Day 1 and a Godfather Day 2 are so slim it couldn’t have happened!!!” (taken directly from a game situation.?

You are shouting “SD’s reaction means he is a Serial Killer”.

Everyone is effectively saying “No, it means he may be a 3rd party role”

Do you have anything that indicates that a Serial Killer must be in the set-up other than your gut?

If the answer is No then don’t bother banging that drum again. No-one is really going to care until there is more to go on.

[MagnaofIllusion]

593 is fence-sitting on an epic scale.

"I don't think BabySpice is Town or Scum. I suppose you could lynch her if you want. Here's a mostly bogus list of reasons why I'm backing off my earlier position"

[MagnaofIllusion]

Isn't there some ridiculous tell where early signs of SK hunting probably lead to an SK?

Not sure about that. My understanding is present thinking runs along the following lines – early game SK hunting as opposed to Mafia hunting is more likely to come from Mafia than Town. Something about not wanting to be worried about a wild-card killing your team off.

[MagnaofIllusion]

PREVIEW EDIT

- Interesting.

My vote is staying with BabySpice.

1. Dribbles out as little as possible about her role and only provides more when prodded.
2. Hider that doesn’t die hiding behind scum? Where have I seen that before? Oh that’s right – NoPoint scum in Blackest Night Mafia.

--

Chesskid’s reaction chain to Baby is very suspect –

612 – BS is obvtown for including color details after Plum made a huge deal about it with SD’s claim.
622 – PR claims are useless in non-Vanilla games.
655 – Suddenly Hider is a easily verifiable role.

--

- If it's a mod given fakeclaim, then since they gave multicolored role name bit, I don't see why they would shaft a good fakeclaim by giving a role that doesn't fit
- If it is something scum came up with, I'd expect that the team which came up with the multicolor bit could do much better than hider

If it is Mod given (almost certainly it is) and the game is non-Vanilla (it is), then there is a limited amount of role-types to go around. Would you except the Mod to provide fake-claims that directly conflict with Town PRs?

Scum don’t have Daytalk. Any talk of “scum team would come up with better” goes out the window unless you are arguing that they spent every second of Pre-game making additional fake-claims when all Mods assuredly provided them.

--

Yeah, but I don't think she would have thought to bother telling us about the color.

That’s very poor thinking in context of Plum making an issue of it with SD’s claim.

--

But since MoI seems to be keen to retroactively change what his beef was about, and incapable of reading threads ...

Unless you can provide direct quotes to prove the first part that’s a complete lie.

Nice use of insulting rhetoric Baby. Yes, I’m incapable of reading

I notice you didn’t bother to answer the direct questions to you. Dodge dodge dodge.

With something like two or three pages preceeding refering to LC as Chronos, it is an easy mistake to make. Especially as at least one other has admitted to making it.

Post numbers to back this up. Pronto.

I'd also suggest it that Chess's post you sheeped blindly couldn't have been hard to understand given that Quadz immediately corrected you on your 'misvote'

What should be mentioned/investigated is the difference in MoI from that game to this one. In SA3 he was town.

Yes, I am playing differently than SA3 where I was effectively a Serial Killer. Thanks for noticing.

Dont die if hide behind scum.

Yeah, any chance I had of buying this claim went out the door with this post. Dying behind scum is one of the distinct hallmarks of a Hider. Otherwise Mods just provide players with Commuter or Bulletproof roles. My guess now is that BabySpice is a Bulletproof scum of some sort.

--

1. I am a town fencesitter. You could prove this with science if you wanted to.

Then my impression of the level of your Town play was in error. Also, self-meta is useless. We’ve had this discussion before.

2. There is no backing off in that post. I am sticking to my earlier opinion that the BS's are different.

Yes, there is clear backing off.

Original statement – Baby I don’t see as scum because she isn’t as scummy as she was in SAIII.

593 statement – I can’t say I get a Town read from her but I still get a different vibe than in SAIII.

In the original you were saying she was Town based on meta. Now you’ve shifted to say that your ‘vibe’ is different but you can’t read her as Town.

I think BS looks pretty good unless the fakeclaims in this game come in the form of "full" PM fakeclaims. That, or BS is a clever enough scum that

I'd be willing to let her live a few days on principle.

Bolded the scum claim. Town wanting to let 'clever scum' live just because they are clever? I don't think so.

Also the assumption that the Mods didn’t provide fake-claims is hilarious. We’ve already discussed how both Andy and Dana have a history of providing fully formed fake-claims.

--

She doesn't strike me as the type to come up with that multi-colored claim on her own, and it's hard to imagine the Mods providing a complere fake role PM complete with colors (though I suppose it's still remotely possible)

So you find it only remotely possible when the last Large Theme game you played in was Clash of Kings where the Mods did just that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Did they? Differen't mods, and this was close to a year ago, but I seem to recall that the Mods said in that game they would provide the scum with a fake claim upon request - which is not the same thing as providing a fully formatted role PM (complete with colors, and presuambly a picture) for the player to reference as their "fake" claim.

1. Andrius and Dana have a proven history of providing full fake-claims. You don't address this at all.
2. Even if they chose to provide it 'on request' why would you assume that the entire scum team didn't immediately request one? I know we did in Clash the second we got our role Pms. And those provided fake-claims had full formatting, flavor text, and everything else that Town role Pms had.

Your argument was the full-fake claim Pms is a rarity. I'm providing you with just one example. I can provide others of Mods here on site providing full-fake-claims for Mafia in Large Theme games.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Scum don’t have Daytalk.

How are you so certain about this?

This has already been discussed in thread. The quote from the rules -

II) All groups with Quicktopics (QTs) will be able to converse during the NP.

I suppose you can make the argument that it doesn't explicitly say they can't talk during the day phase. But given the phrasing that seems likely to be hair splitting.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It's one thing to give someone a fake "name" claim. Another thing to give someone a fake "ability" claim, and yet another thing to give someone a fully formatted fake role PM.

In LOTR Mafia (Mini Version) Andrius provided me with a full-fake claim including flavor text.

In Blackest Night Mafia Dana provided me with a full-fake claim including flavor text, power description, fake win condition and Role name colors consistent with other Blue Lanterns.

That was a different game with different Mods. Are you saying that I, having been in Clash of Kings, should be assuming that all mods do what those mods did?

You are the one assuming that Mods are not giving out full-fledged role Pms. I’m simply trying to explain why I don’t see that as a logical and valid assumption.

Are you saying, bottom line, that you have no trouble at all believing that the Mods would give out a fake role PM to the scum with "Goddess of Rainbows" and even put it in multi-colors.

Why the colors? To make the claim even more believable? Did they anticipate that people would be talking about the "color" of their role PMs? This does not strike you as far fetched at all?

Yes, I have no trouble at all believing that.

Why the colors? Because if they went to the trouble to do it for Town role Pms (and all evidence including the pre-game flips and my own PM indicate they did) then not doing it for scum fake-claims is open to mass-breaking the game. Why go to the effort of spending all that time designing the game and making detailed Town role-Pms to just make the game easily broken.

And furthermore – even if the scum don’t have full fake-pms – please answer me this:

Do you think someone with a fake role-name of Iris- Goddess of Rainbows would not include a tidbit in their claim about color after Plum SPECIFICALLY asked ShadowDancer the question when he claimed earlier in the Day? Further do you believe that a color claim of Rainbow isn't the obvious way to go?

[MagnaofIllusion]

This may be a bit WIFOMish, but why would BS, as scum, claim a non-traditional version of a role like Hider? If she were scum, she doesn't ever have to explain why she didn't die when she hid behind X (scum). Because she'd just never claim to have hidden behind a scum in the first place. She knows who the others are. It's not like she's going to get caught in a mistake there. What does she benefit?

Because the traditional Hider very much limits who a fake-claiming Hider can 'target'. When a regular Hider targets someone and doesn't die they clear that person as 100% Town.

A fake-claiming scum is in a dilemma - do they 'fake' clear their partners? If they chose to do so and via Vig or other method said partner flips scum they immediately are lynched as a liar. If they don't clear their partners then they have to only target Town players.

Additionally if there are 3rd Party roles about a fake-claiming scum using a traditional Hider has even more complications to mull over.

Removing the "Die if I hide behind scum" clause simplifies that matter. BabySpice as scum would be free to craft their target without worry if they later flip scum.

Yes, there is Tons of inherent WIFOM there.

And outguessing the Mod. I can only say that I have never seen a Hider that didn't die when hiding behind scum on site. The only time I've ever seen that claim came from scum NoPointinActingUp in Blackest Night Mafia.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also, this does seem to go against the idea that the Mods are giving out these great false claims, doesn't it? Or do you think she's using the false name but NOT whatever false ability claim they gave her to go with the name? That doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.

Fully formated does not equal great. That's a bad argument. Again ... in crafting fake-claims the Mods in a Non-Vanilla game have limited sets of roles to choose from. So each fake-claim may be crafted to avoid having too many Town versus Scum duplicate powers also.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh come on, you're stretching now. Really stretching.

Your assertion in this case is that I'm the one who is stretching? Really?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – I’ll be V/LA for regular family duties from 4PM EST today until Monday morning.

--

I've been a town hider who doesn't die if he hides behind scum.

Link to the MS game where this happened. I’d very much like to see what kind of game it was.

If it happened elsewhere don’t bother as that’s not useful in the least.

--

God, no. Well, Dekes have good vibes, but AV is another story. I meant I saw your town list and I'm disappointed. But don't worry, those scumradars stop working once in a while. It's normal. That's why you should use that coupon to fix it. For once, you have diddin in the town list. That can't be good. :-/ And you have me in the scum list. Pfft, that's even worst.

This post combined with your lack of scum-hunting (Pro-Tip – yelling ‘diddin is scum’ isn’t scum-hutning) makes me want to lynch you on principal. Be glad there are tons of scummy players out there today.

--

The two people who you think are scum are both voting each other when there are (probably) better-easier mislynches around .. How can down for a lynch on either one?

This strongly makes me question my Town read on you ooba. Because it makes no sense.

With BabySpice and diddin as strong wagons already established there is little chance AV or Iec are going to be lynched today. That's reality. So now is the perfect time to do a little safe distancing with cross-votes such as those if they are indeed scum. Throwing out the possibility of having them be partners isn't logical.

--

a) A person can claim a result on Baby without claiming his role. "BS is scum, trust me!" doesn't tell scum if it's a track/watch/cop/block/failed vig/whatever result.

Ok, so softly claiming your role that can effectively find scum certainly wouldn’t get you killed also …

b) In an all-PR game, scum's NK preference will be getting rid of dangeorus players over PR-hunting.

Disagree on some level. Scum will be looking out for Powerful Roles (Cop, Vig, etc) while also looking to take out players they perceive as dangerous. With a PR heavy game there are going to be a large number of more or less useless Town powers.

--

@AGar

- Do you believe Baby is confirmed by the messenger ability?

--

Baby, can you confirm yourself via your special power?

How exactly does having a Messenger ability confirm Baby as Town again?

[MagnaofIllusion]

It makes Iris most likelky not a fake claim. And Iris is definitely dreek and can hardly be considered anti-town/SK/3rd party. thus she must be town.

And thus there is no possibility that the Mods gave scum a Messenger role and appropriately gave them Iris as a fake-claim?

I give up ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

ATTENTION ALL PLAYERS – Given the mechanics of Today’s lynch any players form this point forward (until such a time as we have both lynches properly decided) should know it is considered a scum claim.

Lynch1 – AV

I’m currently leaning towards following Chess’s Choronopie push for Lynch 2. I also could be convinced that Quadz might be a good choice.

--

SUPER - "Strategic Assault"
A one-shot kill which cannot be prevented, but fails against Greek Gods.

Ok AV

– here is you one chance to have any possibility of surviving the day.

Publicly state your target and then use your Super on them. Supers can be used at any time. You MUST state who you target beforehand.

Unless your shot ‘works’ and you kill a Non-Greek God you are taking the rope.

No Pressure.

--

I’m going to venture the assumption based on diddin’s flip and SnowBunny’s push on him that he was the reason SnowBunny died.

--

@Charon: How would a tie for 2nd be resolved?

I’m going to not be charitable and assume you are asking this on the off chance the scum needs to push a second wagon on Town over scum.

And did anyone get a pm related to the word "Grace"? Or perhaps that they had been Granted something for today?

Just to be clear – you are claiming to have given out something related to the name ‘Grace’ last night?

--

I also vote that we use our secondary lynch on mothrax.

trim the fat.

Nope. We used our policy lynch yesterday on BabySpice.

Your ability gives you a false result. Andrius decided it would be LULZY to name me Jesus because of the backstory in those two games.

Yeah, the second sentence there is all sorts of crap. Andy isn’t going to mess with something on the fly just to be lulzy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Is there a reason for SD to not say who he "jailed" last Night?

This would at least presumably be someone who didn't do any killing.

This man makes sense. And there are other possibilities I’d like to mull over also.

@SD

– Your N1 Jailkeep target. Go!

I could possibly get behind this. The person she shoots should not be the person who is #2 to Lynch though, as it defeats the point of an ability that "clears" the person it fails on if we then lynch that person along with AV.

Eh I’d rather not draw it out. I want AV firing off the cuff for several reasons. I don’t want a solid #2 consensus formed before he fires for several reasons.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Anywho, we're both getting to the same conclusion, so NO HATIN.

Also...why weren't you a N1 kill? Suspicious.

Because I’m the Black Lantern Bulletproof recruiter, duh, Oops, wrong Dana-Mod game.

I find the irony of the those two sentences coming back to back funny as all get out.

--

Lynch two not so much.

I agree that chrono is a good candidate, but am not sold on it.

I’ve bolded the fence-sitting for everyone to see. The direct conflict between the first and second clauses there is scumtastic.

--

This game gets a whole lot interesting ..
SD you go any flavor on your JK?

1. He explained the flavor previously. Pay attention.
2. Why did it get more interesting? Elaborate please.

Ideally the best plan to resolve the 1 vs 1 on Iece and AV is to have
- AV shoot Iece. Since Iece claims to be a greek god, it should fail. Otherwise, Iece scum should die.
However, the only way to differentiate between AV using super and it failing and AV not having an ability is if there is a in-thread flavor confirmation of the flavor of somebody shooting.

Directing the scum-Vig theoretical shot robs us of AV actively choosing himself. Bad thought proves.

--

A regular redirect doesn't make sense because they'd have to randomly guess that I was investigative, and then redirect me. It's much more likely that they used a busdrive to protect AV.

Goodposting ….

[MagnaofIllusion]

............
who did you make a double voter

Based on his comments about 3 spots down - AV ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

All the ‘Insert Power X means I’m confirmed Town’ talk needs to stop. There are no such thing as Powers that 100% confirm someone as Town by their use.

Chronopie and Gandalf seem very likely to be Town based on how the Powers work but do not get “ignore play even if it is terribly scummy and refuse to look at near MYLO / LYLO” cards.

--

Based on Chronopie’s answers regarding ‘Grace’ and the doublevote I’m putting my Lynch2 vote down on

Lynch2 – quadz

Although based on play so far I would support AGM as my second choice.

--

common sense would indicate dekes is RB immune

Really … that’s the most obvious conclusion? What does being RB immune say about Dekes’ alignment?

Also no I am not a fucking retard but thanks for playing w/ regards to blocking a Jailkeeper

Elaborate … GO!!!

NEVER SEEN iT AS TOWN ROLE

Then you need to expand your game experience. Ythan in Weeds Mafia was a Town JOAT with a 1-shot Executioner ability.

--

Are we ACTUALLY discussing this "JESUS" result as being legitimate?

The game is called the BATTLE. FOR. OLYMPUS.

NOT BATTLE OF RANDOMASS RELIGIOUS FIGURES.

OLYMPUS.

JESUS ISN'T IN THE FUCKING GAME

You clearly aren’t this stupid. I know better. Not liking this at all.

--

LOLOLOLOLOL WHO WAS RIGHT

Ok … I’d like you to point to the kill that comes from Poseidon.

--

@MoI:when I say things like that it generally means I have seen others points but need to reread for myself.

Then the Pro-Town play would be to not clutter the thread with fluffy statements that have no meaning and just reread and actually come to a conclusion.

--

Claims and counter claims are always interesting ..

Only when it involves Roles and not use of powers. Because there are several explanations as to why SD can be telling the truth about his target and Dekes still took his ‘action’

Are you trying to be to Iece what Agar was to you? To reiterate, Iece is one of my strongest town reads. However, if AV is town, he should shoot Iece:

You are approaching this from a AV is Town scenario. Likelyhood of that is slim given what we have witnessed (Iec’s claim and AV’s response). So forcing AV to choose a “suspect” gives us potential relational information.

Iece - I'm town

as always

- not sure what you're seeing ..

Oh really? Bolded – been hitting the Weed too hard ooba?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Unofficial Lynch 1 / Lynch 2 Counts

–

If you didn’t bold yours I might well have missed them …

Lynch 1

–

AV – ooba, ShadowDancer, MoI, LordChornos, AGar

Lynch 2

–

Quadz – ooba, MoI

Chronopie – chesskid

Gandalf – ShadowDancer

AGM – AGar

@PLAYERS – Everyone needs to get a Lynch 2 vote down.

If you are Town and not participating you are doing it wrong. Once we get a concensus on the second lynch we can actually vote off AV-scum and our second candidate.

--

really? really? What's the probability 3 consecutive players on the playerlist are all scum. fuck i'll be generous, 7 scum. PIck any scum. 6/10*5/19 lowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww you lose

Anyone who spends any more time on this crap needs a slap.

This is a pure Appeal to Probability – “the odds that randomly generated roles would slot three scum next to each other is so low it couldn’t have happened”. Pure fallacy.

It’s a stupid argument and Chess looks to be flailing around looking for any tidbit he thinks he can find to implicate ooba.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Does anyone want to come forward and claim that he or she might be responsible for SD's jailkeep not working on me last night? If not, SD is a liar and needs-a-lynchin'.

So you think that SD is an absolute liar if he is Town and scum doesn’t come forward to claim blocking him? I'd like to see you explictly state you don't think that is a possibility.

Whoever said, "Jesus is a God". Wtf? I mean, Iece claimed beforehand that his results may not be accurate. And then he gets a result of a non-God? I see no reason whatsoever to see AGM as scum based on Iece's claim alone.

1. If you want to get into a Divinity discussion with someone as to whether Jesus, part of the Holy Trinity, counts as a God please do so. Outright dismissing the possibility is rather short sighted.
2. AGM’s play is terribly bad because he’s focusing purely on the aspect that “Jesus as foreign God” can’t possible exist because this is the ‘Battle for Olympus’ as opposed to scum-hunting.

[MagnaofIllusion]

How about you explaining first and finally why you are so sure your normal worked? Or sis it because your scum kill went through?

Pressing this issue isn't Good SD. I'd drop that angle. Both Town and Scum players have every reason not to narrow down the reason why they know their power 'worked'.

If you want to get after Dekes I suggest you dig into his ISO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

He only needs to claim that it's been confirmed by mod PM or that the effect is obvious or whatever, I am not asking him to claim his power.

MS standard is for only certain kind of powers to be Mod confirmed as successful. We have no reason to assume Charon isn't following those norms. The rules don't indicate anything to the contrary.

Continuing to press the issue is not Pro-Town. Stop it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

AGar

- I saw that ... haven't had full time to reply. Expect it later today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Gandalf

- if you can replicate 1057 in a readable form that would be great!

--

Yet the main focus on AGM seems to be due to the cop result which was confirmed to not be sanity confirmed. Terribly bad = scummy. See Baby Spice.

You are purposely avoiding the subject. My focus has nothing to do with the actual Cop result, which Iec has already said was not sanity confirmed.

My focus has been on AGM’s reaction. He’s spending far too much focus trying to discredit the possibility of the result even existing in the game. His argument that “It can’t be in this game, this is Battle for Olympus’ is so stupid that I can’t believe he’s honestly making it.

Also … AGM =/ BabySpice. Trying to excuse AGM’s play by giving Baby as an example is bad. Those two are not in the same ballpark involving skill level and any attempt to say otherwise is driven by ulterior motives.

Plus, I actually see bits of scumhunting in AGM's ISO

ISO Numbers stat.

--

MoI - do you have any other reasoning behind that (I'm guessing you do?) other than Chrono's "grace" thing?

My reasons have nothing to do with Chronopie. At all. Sorry if the way it was presented gave that impression.

My thoughts on Quadz

–

I’m operating on a gut basis partially. I just can't reconcile what I am seeing here with Town Quadz at a gut level. I just don’t see serious scum-hunting and opinions flowing form his slot. Look at his ISO for himself.

Lots of short, jovial posting. Lots of open ended questions that don’t amount to anything.

AV Relationship –

At ISO 13 he places a vote on AV (his biggest scum-read) and does nothing with it. No hounding of AV as scum. No directed questioning and explanation of scum motivations. It just sits there until he finds reasons to move it elsewhere. Given Iec’s result it reads as distancing. And then we have this –

AV's catchup post was decent, though not spectacular. I'm reading null on him now. (NEEDS MOAR POSTING)

Nice way to back of his suspicion while keeping the door open to return.

See, this is tough. Iecerint is scummy as hell, but AV's misrep on Iece is scummy as all hell too.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Iece

FoS Partner, Vote other.

Finally, he was increadibly eager to jump back on AV today. Before AV could claim. Doesn’t read as logical given his suspicion Day 1 of Iec as scummy as hell.

Also,

Happily joined in on the BabySpice wagon for policy reasons as opposed to actively thinking he was scummy. Hell, Quadz made a point of defending Baby during the whole Chrono / LC fiasco.

--

Dekes already claimed that much, though. Do you really think a little bit of further elaboration would bring scum any significant WIFOM bonus over alleged Dekes town?

I think continually harping on it only can benefit scum. So yes, I do. There is NO PRO-TOWN REASON FOR IT. STOP.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I didn’t read the Chesskid – Gandalf exchange on page 44 and part of 45. It was obviously stupid after 2 posts.

AV’s “oh, catch me up” post is officially notice he’s going to do nothing. He is lynch number 1 … no doubt at this stage.

--

I have no idea what is going on in this giant shithole.

Classic AGM scum. Keep your head low when a modicum of suspicion is on you and avoid commenting if possible.

Lynch2 - AGM

--

today's lottery nuimbers
9 26 13 34 43

more or less believable than

1 2 3 4 5

No, its not. You clearly know nothing about statistics. Fact – given five numbers randomly selected from 1 to 45 in order with no replacement the pattern of

9 26 13 34 43 happening in that order is EXACTLY EQUALLY AS LIKELY as 1 2 3 4 5 in that order. In fact the odds of any five number set happening in a specific order is exactly the same.

You are falling victim to a flaw in human psychology – the need to assign meaning to patterns when none necessarily exists.

If you want to argue that Andrius didn’t randomly select the roles / alignments and hand-crafted the list then you can argue that. But there is no evidence that happened so your probability arguments are simply fallacies.

--

Why are we still sitting here?

Because we don’t need to rush the Day. This isn’t a game with a time sensitive mechanic. I’ll be doing a Lynch 2 count again later on.

What do you think about my Quadz thoughts? Given you aren’t advocating him as lynch 2 I am curious why. Since you were very interested in them I’d like feedback please.

--

And as for my role looking like it should be for scum, you're right. If not for the fact that I have extensive knowledge of Greek mythology and knew that my character was town, I probably would have assumed I was scum with an OP superpower.

Actually I didn’t make that point. In fact I thought your Super is certainly possible as Town. I simply am not going to give you a game-long free pass simply based on your Powers. That’s how Towns throw away games.

@Gandalf

– I’m suspect of your answer to Shadow Dancer given you offered power use. Why didn’t you redirect ShadowDancer to Iec given you suspected SD of being a Serial Killer and Iec of being scum? Your choice of redirecting Iec to Ranger / AGM makes little sense.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Unofficial Lynch 2 Count –

Because AV is obv Lynch 1 today …

Lynch 2 –

Quadz (2)– ooba, Dekes

LordChronos (1) - Chesskid

AGM (1) – MoI

Dekes (2)– AGar, ShadowDancer

Chesskid (1) - Gandalf

Not voting (8) – Iecerint, Chronopie, Gemini, AGM, Axelrod, Quadz, Mothrax, LordChronos

We really don’t care since it is likely WIFOM bait (1) – AV

--

@AGar

– Now I’m confused. I didn’t realize your had moved your Lynch2 vote to Dekes. Why are you asking why AGM isn’t dead when you aren’t even voting him Lynch2?

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI - check my activity. I've not been online since my claim kthx so this is hardly a "lurker" tactic. Has anyone ever seen me intentionally lurk, ever? No? Thanks.

As for why I'm asking someone to catch me up, ten pages is too much to read properly in the little time I'm able to get, espcially when I have other games and (shock horror) other things I need to use the internet for (paying bills, booking trains, etc.)

Do y'all want me to declare who I will use my power on before I use it?

1. Yes if you are going to 'use' your super specifically say who you are using it on before hand.
2. If you don't have time for the game stop signing up for large games. 10 pages in the time you were gone is hardly unexpected or out of the ordinary.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I was meant to have internet on the 26th April. They inexplicably pushed it back to 6th May. When I signed up, as far as I knew, I was getting consistent access.

You know that this post lacks?

Your target for your 'Super'.

And instead of spending time explaining why you haven't been reading why aren't you using that precious time to read instead? You can more or less ignore pages 44 to 46 whenever Gandalf or Chesskid post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Are you not even putting my votes into your VC?

No, you are confirmed scum. Go sit in the corner till we decide who else to hang with you.

@ALL PLAYERS -

[MagnaofIllusion]

EBWOP -

@ALL PLAYERS - PLEASE IGNORE EVERYTHING AV SAYS FROM THIS POINT ON. HE'S FULLY CLAIMED SCUM AND INTERACTING WITH HIM CAN ONLY RESULT IN HIM SPINNING WIFOM.

[MagnaofIllusion]

ATTENTION ALL PLAYERS NOT AV–

NOW THAT WE HAVE CONFIRMED AV IS SCUM THE FOLLOWING WILL BE THE VOTING PROCEDURE ONCE WE DECIDE ON LYNCH 2. ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THIS WILL BE CONSIDERED CLAIMING SCUM. TOWN HAS NO REASON TO NOT FOLLOW THIS PLAN, EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT THRILLED WITH THE SECOND LYNCH.

Once we have a second lynch that is viable (and getting someone to 7 or 8 Lynch2 votes should meet this criteria) we will be voting in the following manner –

Players will alternate voting between AV and Lynch2 candidate. This is absolutely critical to prevent scum from rushing a second lynch that Town does not agree to by quickhammering AV. Remember - the threashold is low today so it doesn’t take much for scum to pull this off and claim “Oops, I thought we wanted AV killed”

Yes I know the likelihood that scum would out themselves in mass but I am taking ZERO chances with the lowered threshold for voting

Yes, if you do not agree with voting for the Lynch2 candidate simply waiting until someone else has voted for them and then voting AV is your prescribed course of action.

Voting in this manner assures that AV and Lynch2 candidate both rise at equal rates and when one reaches Lynch the other is assured to be the second choice.

--

MOD – I’ll be V/LA after 3pm EST today for my normal weekend family duties.

--

Boy am I on pins and needles to discover if Ooba dies.

This makes little sense to me. Clearly by not outright attacking Iec AV had claimed the Iec Cop action was accurate and thus he was scum.

Scum will not have a Super Vig that only kills Non-Greeks ….

--

I can't answer this question, as once again, it involves someone else's role.

Bzzzt, wrong answer. I’m directly asking you why you didn’t use YOUR role which you have claimed in a manner consistent with YOUR claimed views Day 1.

I’m going to give you one more chance to answer – you would be good to take it.

Why didn’t you redirect SD, who you spent ALL DAY ranting was a Serial Killer, to Iec who you have explained you targeted because you had a scum read on him?

--

I apologize for my laziness, but can someone paraphrase the case on Quadz?

I just made my thoughts on Quadz known at ISO 52, Read there if you want a summary of why I think he is scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Updated Lynch2 Tally

–

Lynch 2 –

Quadz (4)– ooba, Dekes, Gemini, MoI

LordChronos (1) - Chesskid

Dekes (2)– AGar, ShadowDancer

Chesskid (1) - Gandalf

Not voting (7) – Iecerint, Chronopie, AGM, Axelrod, Quadz, Mothrax, LordChronos

We really don’t care since it is likely WIFOM bait (1) – AV

--

I’ve officially moved my Lynch2 back to Quadz at this point. AGM seems to be not viable at this stage.

@Anyone not AV not voting Lynch2 – You need to do so in your next post We don’t benefit as Town from stretching the day out with scum AV willing to spam the thread with stupid posts.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In other news, I am certainly down for an ooba lynch as lynch two. CMAR was scummy before he replaced out. Ooba hasn't really done much since then. I have specific posts in mind but can't quote ATM since I am stuck phone posting until finals are over.

So, this is not forgotten in the pile of shit that was the gandalf-chess "math theory".

He didn't bold it to make it stand out. When I'm doing gratis Lynch2 Counts I'm not doing detailed reading

Thanks for the correction.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Gandalf’s ever developing claim makes me more and more confused about what the hell he is doing this game. Come Day 3 if I’m alive I’ll have to really look at him more closely.

Don’t like Mothrax’s 1206 at all – it looks like he’s found a weak player to try to move the Lynch2 wagon onto from either AGM or Quadz.

--

It'll be clear as soon as the person claims(although now that I think of it, since there's no role reveal, it's possible they're already dead

So you’ve spun a web of unclear flailing that might never be understood thanks to the ‘role’ involved being dead?

Just because town has incomplete info doesn't mean they shouldn't try for more.

But you ranted to even bothering with Logic is a waste since Town will never have the full picture. This seems very inconsistent with your earlier stance.

BTW, before mothrax comes in and is like OH LOL lOOK CONTRADICTION HE CALLED BS SCUMMY FOR WITHHOLDING FLAVOR:

There's actually a reason this time, so it doesn't count, sorry.

Pre-arguing a statement not yet made? Not Pro-Town at all.

--

Just don't let Iec weasel out of a lynch by claiming "mad gambitz" when I flip town.

ATTENTION TOWN PLAYERS

– This lovely bit signals that it is entirely possible AV will not flip cleanly tonight. Just and FYI … go into Night thinking about good possible Moves for your abilities if the case we get a ????? flip.

--

And why is that? It's not a tell. If I'm scum, I could just as easily argue a redirect or non-sanity or any thing else given the ability is NOT confirmed. So I don't really know what kind of "reaction" you are trying to get. I'm maintaining that it is made up nonsense.

AFA the whole "lol well AGM isn't posting" blah blah, the signal:noise ratio ITT is like 1:100, so my apologies for not contributing to the SPAMFEST.

Yeah, you need to die.

1. ‘I don’t have to contribute because there is spam’
2. WIFOM bomb set to explode – if I was scum I could have argued sanity or redirect issues instead.

A. The redirect issue has already been shown given that Iec didn’t target your slot originally. So throw that out.
B. The sanity issue was addressed in Iec’s claim. Yet the second he admitted you went off on a Charlie Sheen style rant about this being Greek God Mafia that was complexly stupid. If you felt the Sanity issue was a workable point you would have pressed that.

Your play isn’t helpful to Town.

Lynch2 : AGM

How about we talk about YOU, for a bit, eh scumbag? I read your iso and it's a lot of talking about nothing. no much scumhunting. No list of town/scumreads anywhere. Who are the scum, other than LOL ME AND AV (who you piled on at the end with a loljustification)?

An exercise in deflection.

Step 1 – I’m not scum for not providing reads and content because of all the spam.
Step 2 – LC is scum for not scum-hunting or providing content.

Cognitivie Dissonance Away!!!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Updated Lynch2 Tally

–

Lynch 2

–

Quadz (3)– ooba, Dekes, Gemini

LordChronos (2) – Chesskid, AGM

AGM (7) – AGar, Quadz, LC, ShadowDancer, Gandalf, Chronopie, MoI

Gandalf (2) – Mothrax, AGM,

Not voting (2) – Iecerint, Axelrod

We really don’t care since it is likely WIFOM bait (1) – AV

--

AGM has reached 7 votes. That’ enough to lynch today and is the combined total of all non-AV votes on other Lynch2 candidates. Especially considering that others off the wagon have expressed they would vote for you.

AGM – If you are going to claim do it in your next post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@AGM

– It would be a good idea for you to unvote AV for the moment. Your claim is worth discussing. Thanks.

On one hand AGM is absolutely correct - his claim is unproveable. On the other hand his reaction to AV’s claim and what I know about my role seems to bolster my thought that his claim is true.

I also agree that Quadz would certainly be a good alternative to AGM.

AGM (7) – AGar, Quadz, LC, ShadowDancer, Gandalf, Chronopie, MoI

Anyone listed here … how many of you are willing to flip to Quadz who had 3 votes?

I am. That’s one.

--

So how are we handling my doublevote? Where am I putting them? Split or both on 1? I can do either.

Logically it would be better for you to split your votes to maintain the balance between AV and lynch2.

That said I’d wait to do so in case Town does move to lynch AGM. In that case a double-vote on AGM might be appropriate given AV currently has 2 votes.

Ooba: :moonbeams: is what I think of AGM's claim.

Really? I also note that AGM was pushing anyone other than Quadz (the other leading Lynch2 wagon) with his Lynch2 vote. Unless they are scum together that doesn’t make much sense from a scum survivalist mentality.

--

Oh yeah, and last night I targeted Magna.

THANKS FOR THE LOVE, BRO.

Hey, if you were not playing Lurky McNoContentPants I would not have pushed in your direction. It’s how you’ve played (in a very limited information set) as scum. You weren't prolific but were a solid contributor in LOTR (that is until LOL follow Fate took over, anyway) as Town.

--

However, if AGM is third-party, I'm betting there's not actually a doctor, because we've already had 2 doc claims, and no CC to either one. This means that leaving AGM-scum alive = dead Iece-cop

You somehow don’t think Iec is a target regardless of whether AGM dies today?

And leaving AGM-Town alive means Iec lives to fight for at least 1 more day. Who knows, perhaps he will be able to do something useful down the line that doesn’t involve his regular Power.

I also agree with the assessment that Quadz calling AGM 3rd Party and not scum is suspect.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Great news: AGM's claim just became quite a lot more believable recently. I strongly advocate against an AGM-lynch today.

Great news - I'd like some sort of reasonable explanation of what "Just became" entails.

[MagnaofIllusion]

lynch2 Dekes

Case in point ....

the likelyhood that we shift the Lynch2 wagon to Dekes at this juncture is next to minimal. This is just like Chesskid's obsession with LordChronos. You may be right. You aren't going to push your preferred Lynch2 through posting as you have. Either build something to stand on or stop screwing around.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Quadz’s 1318 is a big ball of backtrack. (Like the alliteration? I do)

My powers are relatively useless, IMO; I'm willing to claim, as I don't think it will give scum much information outside of my name. AGar's hesitation gives me pause, though; I typically trust his judgement on stuff like this.

AGar’s judgement was based on the incorrect assumption that you were not near the lynch threshold.

--

Quadz, can we have a claim please?

Agreed. Quadz has enough Lynch2 votes to warrant it.

I don't like the fact that Athena is a fake claim though!

Why don’t you like it?

--

All of her reads are either:
- entirely unexplained/unmotivated
- cheap waggon hops
- or seem forcefully constructed.

What are your thoughts on Chesskid, given you find this scummy behavior?

--

While I didn't like Axel's laying low and staying in the background initially, I do get town vibes from him after all, just something I can't put my finger on.

See I get the exact opposite feeling. He’s specifically avoiding solid stances as much as possible.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't understand what pro-town reason there would ever be for me to claim my night targets outside of MC

Shockingly I agree with you on this. SD's insistence on pulling out targets is bad.

Then again you've not exactly got a history of taking that sort of stance ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

My thoughts - I dislike the claim and don't want to switch based on it. I'm not really moved to not vote Quadz at this juncture.

Count me in as a vote for tree-stumping. Otherwise I want to hang him.

Quadz

- if you intend to Treestump you need to do so

BEFORE

real voting starts. Otherwise you could quite possible hurt Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

P-Edit 2.0: MoI, I honestly don't see the benefit to stumping myself other than avoiding my lynch; it merely forces us to waste a vig-shot, or else pushes lylo forward a day. Honestly, my mislynch is not worth the consequences of stumping myself, IMO.

Stumping traditionally does not work as you are describing. Stumps generally become untargetable non-entities that don't count to lynch thresholds. You get to chat but have no direct impact. See Harry Potter Large Theme Mafia for a traditional Tree-stump.

So unless you specifically confirmed with Andy that your ability works differently then I'm inclined to say ...

Stump or Die.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Axelrod’s 1384 strikes me as more “Look how helpful I am” posting. He’s not pressing scum reads and just more or less actively lurking.

I’m getting the feeling this Day is stretching out longer than it should.

Lynch2 - Axelrod

--

I feel like Quad preemtively treestumping himself is a clear symptom of there beng already one clai too much. It's time to become serious. Moth is a great lynch. AV already has one vote. Time to become serious.
vote Moth

You know that you just place a real vote not a Lynch2 vote, right?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes. (But please stay coordinated in following me)
Is there any specific reason why you think Moth is not scum or not a good lynch?

Have I ever said I didn't think he wasn't scum?

My gut feeling here is that we've moved in a popular path down the line today and Mothrax seems all to convienant a stop on said runaway train. And I need to trust my gut more. Also throw in a small pile of [REDACTED] to go with my gut.

He's certainly possibly scum. And with three already Lynch2 / voting him I want to see where it goes without my direct support.

I'm flexing my independant thought muscle to point out that I think Axelrod is scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Just to clarify. There remains a major

FoS

Moth.
I am just not sure how far we should drive this whole claim-and-rewaggon game. But it's probably just most awkward that we had the wrong waggons so far :\

It needs to stop. We are not helping matters by constantly pulling claims.

[MagnaofIllusion]

WHY CANT WE GET A FUCKING LC LYNCH UP IN HERE

Because you spend your time whining like this as opposed to making a nice case WHY he's a good lynch.

Inb4 'WAH cases are scummy'

[MagnaofIllusion]

ITT we get more confirmation Chesskid is not smart ...

Yeah, make it easy for scum to manipulate the second Lynch by making voting a Free-for-all

DERP

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 4pm EST today til Monday for my usual weekend family duties.

Deadline is only 4 days away. After post 1457 by Mothrax I could agree to either a Mothrax or Axelrod lynch2. More importantly I’m worried that AV might get lost in the shuffle so I’m putting my vote on him to keep him the top option.

VOTE: AV

Axelrod’s 1441 is another large post that is chock full of speculation and little in the way of actual reads on players. He softly suggests several players (myself and ooba) feel like scum and immediately backs off that position by saying “I suspect those who jump at me”. I still need to fully review his analysis of Mothrax.

--

Chess’s attack on Iec and subsequent retraction is of interest. "Oops I forgot Iec was the claimed Cop with the Guilty on AV" doesn’t cut it.

@ Ooba: meh. Could just save time and do LC now because he's not likely to get crosskilled
Also the notion that me and LC are opposite scumteams is lulzy as hell, because that would have been my teams kill if I were scum last night sooooooooooo

The post gives off hints of insider knowledge that we do indeed have 2 scum teams as opposed to a scum and Serial Killer.

[MagnaofIllusion]

AV-scum continues to WIFOM it up in regards to ooba.

The noose is approaching scum ... don't worry.

In other news I'll address Axel's bad "I was Town in a single game so MoI MUST know I am Town here" argument either later tonight or early tomorrow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This post gives off hints of wanted to get LC lynched by any means necessary because he is 100% fucking scum you sack of derp

Then stop being a VI and actually make a compelling case that people can believe it. You are basically throwing a fit because no-one is listening to you (surprise, surprise) when you call Lord C scum ‘because’. Play to your win condition as opposed to being a Troll.

--

There's no reason for a town player to ask if anyone got a grace-related PM if the clear result of the PM would be a double vote. There was also no reason to announce that he was the source of the double vote. The best explanation for his lampshading his double-vote giving to a townie is that he wanted to prevent a wagon on himself via the implications of being a double-vote granter who gave it to town. This impulse is scummy because he's disproportionately concerned about preventing wagons relative to avoiding nightkills.

I’m going to have to take this under consideration. It looks to be an astute observation and I’ll review Chronopie when I get the chance.

--

Before you waste your valuable time tearing down some strawman argument that I am not making, you might want to take a moment to try and understand what I'm actually saying first.

Oh I understand what you are saying. Please don’t assume you are being too intellectual for me.

Your premise is that my suspicion of you for providing NOTHING in the way of solid reads and basically IoAing the entire game is scummy as that’s how you play and I pressed on you in Clash of Kings as scum.

1. A single game is hardly a sample size by which a self-meta defense can be raised. Do you have scum games you can point to that don’t show you playing in the manner you are here? For the record I don’t agree with self-meta for Town status at all.
2. Clash of Kings was a Multi-scum game. I’d have to go dig through the scum QT to see if I can find discussion of you but when I pressed on you and eventually got you lynched it was possible in my mind that you were Lannister scum. Yes, in a multi-scum games Scum do actually scum-hunt. That’s why I went after dana so hard in that game.

Feel free to suspect me if you wish. Please don’t assume you saying “ I always play this way” is an sort of credible defense (IMO) for your passive, non-scum hunting style I have seen so far.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeah ... so now we have THREEE claimed roleblockers / variants:

Shadow / Chesskid / ConS

all three of you can't possibly be Town.

Someone from this list needs to be Lynch 2 - and it isn't going to be Shadow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Super: Sanctuari -> All people targeting 3 people will fail in their action (Apparently not a 3 double roleblock, but the other way around)

The way I am reading this you select three players and anyone who targets those three will fail, correct?

If you are Town then please confirm that you will use this Super before you are lynched on the following 3 players – AGM, Shadow and AGar.

--

how about
since there's not a lot of support for a me lynch
and a shitfuckton of support for a mothrax lynch
that probably means he's the scum not me?

KTHXBIE

And guess what! If Conspiracy flips anything other then Mafia / SK you take the rope tomorrow. Good times!

--

AGar could perhaps y/n/m on the ConS claim...

Hey, let’s not do this ok? If for some reason Conspiracy is Town we have a confirmed scum in Chess. So having Agar out himself (even to the extent he would know he was roleblocked) is not wise.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My super is funny
when I die, everyone I rbed gets rbed for the next two nights

so i'll be Rbing MoI tonight

On the one hand I’d almost rather you be lynched instead of Conspircy based on this claim as you’ve only had 1 Night to make you typical horrible decisions if you aren’t scum.

But I know this is just your typical trolling. And its funny because you seem to have the mis-conception that I need any sort of Night actions to be effective.

--

Chronopie’s

1569

is bad. After the observations previously about his play this is further active lurking fodder (says ‘The plot thickens’ with no comment at all on who is scum among the three). He gets slotted on my ‘Kill before LYLO’ also now based on his play.

--

Iecerint instead of AGM please.

@Magna: Why AGM on that list?

Let’s engage our thinking caps, shall we? If Conspiracy is Town then we should have a fairly good idea when AV flips Scum that AGM is likely Town.

1. His behavior around AV’s claim is consistent with a Town Doctor.
2. No counter-claim of any sort.

If AGM is Town making the Doctor Night-kill immune for a Night is Win on Epic levels.

We likely lost our Vig in diddin so AGM scum (if AV flips Doc) isn’t going to die overnight anyway so giving him a Night of immunity is a risk I’m willing to take. We can certainly hang him tomorrow in this scenario.

If you both want Iec (for ‘double protection’ ) on the list I’d say we need to shift Shadow or AGar off. At this juncture AGar would be my choice.

And Conspiracy is likely not Town anyway so having him fake protecting AGM isn’t going to do anything in that case.

@CONSPIRACY

– Revise the super use to Iec, AGM and Shadow / AGar if you are Town.

--

I disagree on the "Let's lynch CK if Cons is town" chain lynching by Magna.

You need to provide a reason why then. Do you realistically think that there are three Town aligned Role-blocking roles in this game? If not you need to explain why Chesskid isn’t a logical lynch if Conspiracy does flip Town.

--

now i'm baffled. is this chess claiming scum?!?

Perhaps. It’s certainly him claiming butt-hurt Troll.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well part of the reason why I think three RB roles would be good is that, a week back I made an experimental setup with three anti town factions [1 SK plus an even\odd night killing scum team] + vig and a doc, 2 RBs and 1 JK. Just because it is anti-meta doesn't mean its not possible. I certainly wouldn't call it a logical leap from "Conspiracy town" -> "Chess scum".

I disagree. You're using a self-described experimental setup you specifically concocted as evidence when the mass majority of games actually run here on MS, be they single or mutli-scum, do not have two Town role-blockers, much less three.

Is it completely out of the question? Of course not. But the simpler conclusion is that at least one of the three is scum. Mafia is about taking calculated risks. I think the risk of hanging Chess and him turning up Town if Conspiracy flips Town is minimal compared to the risk of not lynching him and having Chess turn out to be scum.

Question

- can you give me reasons based on Dayplay why you think Chess absolutely can't be scum if Conspiracy flips Town?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Someone out there needs to vote AV just to keep him above the pack so he doesn't skip out on the lynch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey, isn't ConS's super kind of the same as what AGM claimed, albeit framed differently?

Not that I can see.

AGM claims his Super Target will be protected from the next 3 Nightkills.

Consp claim his Super will protect three players from any action the following Night.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes. Who is chess scum with then? He's been dogging Chrono, LC for the most part of the game. Only AGM as a partner is a possibility.

Whut? You are jumping directly to Partnership pairings?

1. Why can't he be distancing the hell out of either Chrono or LC?
2. There are more players on the list still alive aside from those three and AV. Why is your Partner speculation restricted to them? Where is Axelrod on this list? Gemini? Gandalf? Me?

At this point I don't want to get into a big conflict about this. Conspiracy's flip needs to happen before I really go digging into Chess's ISO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Not alma. He still is a scumread of mine. I did Agar, Iece and ooba. <- My three top town reads.

Can I vote Aurorus? (or myself, if I have to)

If you are Town you need to set aside your read and do it on AGM. He's a claimed Doc. No reason to not take a chance on protecting him from kills tonight when there is little downside if he is scum (as I have outlined).

Yeah, voting AV at this juncture is fine as long as you submit your Super.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Note that not once has AV even mention the fact that AGM must be scum from his perspective if he actually was Town since he's counter-claimed Doc.

AV

- you really need to step up your WIFOM efforts. You've really been weak so far.

[MagnaofIllusion]

There isn't really a colour for me.

Why are you assuming that colors can only come in one hue?

That said I think the Light Blue = fake-claim line of discussion is rather pointless.

@Conspiracy

- Feel free to vote AV once you have submitted your super.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So there are 2 scumteams with 3 apiece?

Only consider that if once AV flips his role shows any signs of there being multiple Mafia factions. Until then just ignore him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD - Can we get an official vote count please?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Waiting for VC before voting AV/ConSpiracy.

Unless you think Conspiracy actually is Town go ahead and vote them both. No need to drag out the day any longer. Neither one is at L-1. Conspiracy has had ample chance to use his Super if he is Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok that's 4 and 3 AV / Conspiracy

Let's keep those votes flowing.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Kill 'em dead. End day. (After ConSpiracy confirms he's "submitted" his "action.")

Deadline is tomorrow. He's had ample opportunity to do so based on his posting here. If he's Town and hasn't already done it then he's not playing to his win condition. More likely he's scum and will not be doing as Town is requesting anyway. No need to hold up waiting for his confirmation at this point.

[MagnaofIllusion]

AV and Conspiracy ... feel free to fess up now that AGar has locked in the lynch for today.

Ninjaed by ooba.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Nope sorry. Keep in mind that you have to look into chesskid tomorrow.

No worries on that end if you do flip Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Shadow you made the absolute right decision if you aren't lying scum. And I doubt at this stage you are.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey the thread opens and we only have 1 death at Night. Will need a full-re-read of AV and mothrax (that shouldn't take long) before I post my thoughts on the set-up. Preview - not sure I like ooba's immediate take-away about multi-scum. Should be able to be up Monday at the latest.

@Iec - please confirm you are in possession of a VERY useful item to use in leiu of your regular Power tonight. If what you have is not VERY useful please indicate what it is. Thanks!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Moar LordChronos votes please.

Gandalf redirect gives me high suspicion to the possibility of LC scum.

Yeah, let's not rush to end the day before I can determine some information, ok?

LC can hang once i get a few things get sorted out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Iecerint’s regular looks to be either Insane or Paranoid. At this juncture we don’t have enough evidence to conclude fully on either. I don’t think it is very likely that Iec’s normal has fluctuating sanity. If it does it is entirely useless.

If we are in a Single Mafia set-up I very much suspect that the additional kill N1 was due to a Super use. That would point to Dekes and Snow Bunny as the possible sources.

@ooba

– Is the use of your super the reason why you are so sure we are in a multiple scum set-up with Norse Mafia as the second faction? Otherwise I believe you are jumping to strongly unsupported conclusions at this stage.

--

@ MoI -- I am in possession of a quite (very? i suppose it may be very?) useful item, but it is not one that is used in the way you describe (i.e. to replace a night action).

@Iec

– my understanding is that you cannot use said item and your Normal power in the same Night. I may wrong about that. I know I can't pass an already created item and forge in the same Night. I will check with Charon to directly confirm my understanding.

Now that I have confirmed I was not blocked I am going to be expanding my claim as its obvious what my active power is.

I’m Hephaestus, Greek God of Technology, Blacksmiths, and Volcanoes.

My active ability is Forge – I can use one of 5 plans each Night to make something. I either can pass it on (without knowing what it does) or keep it to learn what it does. I can pass on completed items I keep or use them myself on a later Night.

I’m Hated because I am incredibly ugly (even thought I have a smoking hot wife).

@Iec

– I’m assuming the item I sent you is a Vig. If not please let me know what it does.

--

Another possinility for the lack of kills tonight is that egyptian scum team was eliminated. What is the normal number of scum in a game this size? 3/3 seems pretty hard for town to me.

Disagree that 3/3 would not be viable.

1. Crosskill possibilities have shown multi-scum to fall into the higher end of the ‘acceptable’ scum percentages.
2. Lots of Town power (everyone has some sorts of Power) would also indicate a 3/3 team in multi-scum.
3. Acceptable range is 25 to 33% normal. Which translates to 5 to 7 (rounding). I’d guess at least 6 anti-Town roles due to non-vanilla setup.

Oh, Ok... I see. Either some one is lying or there's a yet unknown scum RB hiding somewhere...

I highly doubt there are any other Role-blockers floating around in the set-up.

In case I missed it … who did you Jail last Night?

--

I don't like you fence sitting on CONFIRMED SCUM. Think about it? What is there to "think about?"

Well obviously since Chesskid has come out and claimed role-blocking LC it stands to reason that in a PR rich environment jumping on the first “Hey, he’s scum based on this Night action” isn’t wise. We need to decide whether we think any of the conflicting claims are not valid.

You know this AGM. You aren’t a dummy.

But somehow the kill still gets redirected to that rando? Wut?

And how do you know again that the kill didn’t target Axel in the first place for certain?

--

The one thing that makes me wonder about Iec is that he's not dead........

Um, whut? We have a claimed Doctor. Why aren’t you wondering why he isn’t dead as opposed to the Cop who would be the obv Protection target?

--

LC's lack of votes so far is disturbingly telling. He's more concerned about survival (understandable if he's town), but calling out nobody on his wagon, not even the slightest of suspicion against gandalf's claim? Come on.

Don’t like this

ONE BIT

.

1. If he was playing in a survivalistic manner he would be pressing hard on someone on his wagon. Instead he is answering questions in a controlled manner.
2. Gandalf’s claim would properly explain why his claimed normal Whispher failed even without Chesskid’s claim. Saying he should be suspicious of Gandalf because of it is horrible logic.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@EVERYONE

– What do you think of the following theory –

That Conspiracy’s claim and very self-sacrificing play was a gambit designed to buy Chesskid Town cred since a claimed Role-blocker flipping Scum would bolster his claim?

--

I jailed neither Pie nor LC nor Gand... This is where at least one of these and Chess is very likely lying.

If we are indeed in multi-scum it may be worthwhile to make sure you N2 protect doesn’t get lost (as it may give important information down the line).

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't think that's likely, as it's clear that chess and LC are scumbuddies and 4 scum trams sound like a bit much.

The point ... you missed it.

The point was that Conspiracy FAKE-claimed being a Role-blocker (since he was very likely going down anyway due to Mothrax's play) so as to bolster Chesskid's claim when he flipped scum. Remember ... we don't get ability flips so we can't be certain Conspiracy was truthful with his ability claim.

[MagnaofIllusion]

What IM saying is that if chess and CS were scumbuddies, then LC and chess can't be.

Why?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because then there would be 4 person scumteams........ I don't get what is so hard about this logic.

The fact that there is no guarantee at this juncture of multi-scum?

The fact that you are accepting as fact something that from a Town perspective is speculation is hard for me to wrap my head around.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The item you sent me is a dayvig, not a night-vig.

So we basically get two lynches today, too. ^^

Ok, my gut instinct turned out to be even better than expected.

To summarize I get a list of 5 'junk' plans and when I Forge an item it becomes 'finished product'.

What's the name of the finished product you got?

[MagnaofIllusion]

There is too a guarantee of multi-scum. You think that there is only one scum group in the game and they're the freaking Egyptian gods?

Yes, I see it as completely credibly possible. The Egyptian pantheon is almost as big as the Greek pantheon.

Does it mean that multi-scum is ruled out? No. But your steadfast stance that only a moron would consider it a possibility strikes me as possibly indicative of inside info.

--

Please consider that I am also an RB which means a blocked kill can mean either of two things: Either I blocked a kill or protected the target of a kill.

Yeah, I understand how Jailkeeper works

[MagnaofIllusion]

so now I'm scum who is sacrificing myself to save my scumbuddy who goes down immediately after I flip scum?

Thanks for the vote of confidence in my intelligence, you dumbass

Nope, doubt that completely. But I wanted to explore the psyche of Gandalf and his thought process.

I still consider it a possibility that LC is Town and you and Conspiracy gambitted it up for fake cred.

And you are possibly just as you say you are ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

AV ISO Review (Day 1 Only)

–

ISO 1 – Some interaction with Gemini.

ISO 6 – Call’s Ranger Town indirect when analysing the Shadow wagon. Votes for Dekes and attempts to establish distancing between Dekes and diddin. In the same post late votes for BabySpice. Then diddin. Says Gandalf is Town.

Summarizes by saying –

In summary,
Dekes, Diddin and BS are scummy. Diddin and BS are the worst most recently, with Diddin scummiest out of all three.

His catchup post anoints Gandalf and AGM Town. Dekes is the only ‘scum read’ AV has who is still alive.

ISO 9 – Votes Iec and would be “Willing to revote Diddin”

That’s all of his Day 1 play.

Dekes and Gandalf are the two who gut for me stand out as possible distancing (Dekes, who disappeared from his ISO after 6 and the soft vote) or clearing (Gandalf).

--

Mothrax ISO

–

ISO 2 – Votes ooba for his reaction to my Hated Townie claim. Says he doesn’t see diddin scum.

ISO 4 – Votes BabySpice and moves away from ooba vote.

The rest of Day 1 consists of him commenting to various players why both BabySpice and diddin were scum. More or less ignores ooba.

ISO 20 – Despite his call of ooba (or CMAR specifically) as scum Day 1 isn’t willing to commit to a Lynch 2 vote on him (even if ooba “hasn't really done much since then.”).

ISO 21 – Suddenly finds Gandalf scum for his Lynch 2 out of the blue based on an inconsistency in his play.

From this point he lurks out.

Ooba is the one player who sticks out as a possible distance from mothrax.

[MagnaofIllusion]

- Going by N1 kills, its obvious SB was a diddin vig shot. Therefore the other two are scum shots (Hider was dead and I don't see bodyguard or other dying roles).

So you rule out the possibility of a Super kill from either Snow or Dekes?

- The wording (Aligned with the X Pantheon) seems to imply X can take more than two values since otherwise Town\Mafia\SK would have been easier. Also pantheon by definition is a group, meaning 3/3 is more likely than 4/1 - since a single guy cannot be a pantheon ..

Just because someone is “Aligned with the X Pantheon” doesn’t necessarily rule out the possibility of a Serial Killer with a different faction, IMO.

Also 5-1 could be another quite credible possibility. As could 6-0.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This is why you should check utils. utils lists the last time they logged on to the site - hidden\not hidden - meaning he couldn't have got the PM for the hypothetical QT which was created ..

Where in the MS Utils does it show this information? Because I'm not seeing it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I wish at least one of you (SD\MoI) had caught on and supported me on this ..

Sorry. My name's not Fate / GreyICE / Chesskid or any of the others who support "Lulz crazy gambits for gambits sake".

[MagnaofIllusion]

The situation as I see it today –

Gandalf has claimed to have Redirected LC to Axel, who died.
Chesskid has claimed to have blocked LC.
LC claims to have Dead Neighbor targeted someone and failed. He then claimed his super on Axel.
Chrono claims to have tried to have given Shadow a double vote but apparently was blocked not redirected since no-one has a double vote.
Shadow refused to claim his jail target.

Am I missing anything?


So the approach for today, assuming we want to move on the claims we have, would hang on the set-up. IMO there is too much unknown flowing around to get an absolute feel where we can make concrete sense out of the puzzle we have. So I’m going to continue to hunt via behavioral tells.

--

Not at all enamored of Agar’s 1761. Lots of more or less nothing in that post.

Absolutely hate the ‘gotcha’ gambit by ooba. If LC is lying he is lying. You aren’t going to be able to prove anything (unless there is an ability I don’t know about) with tricky play, IMO.

--

@AGM

– Something that is troubling me … why are you still alive if you are Town? Yeah, not so fun when the shoe is on the other foot, hun?

--

In addition to his super, Axel had 3 1 shot abilities. The first of these, unused, was a execute ability that killed a player who was at L-1. He was saving it for later use.

Well there we have it. Axel is confirmed Town. This claim means that either LC or Gandalf are lying. I absolutely don’t buy for a second that Town has two separate Execute abilities.

@Gandalf

– Anything to say about this claim of LC’s?

Furthermore Gandalf’s 1816 is enough incentive for me to drop my vote before I go on my ISO extravaganza.

VOTE: Gandalf

What did MoI do on N1?

I made an invention which I held onto to see what it produced. The result was Meh.

--

And as a side note, I have a tendency to assume that larges have multiple scumteams, as you well know.

I know that. I also don’t care. You don’t go around spouting “Multiscum is confirmed” and yelling at anyone who has a theory that doesn’t revolve around multiple full scum groups when ZERO evidence exists currently to support it.

--

Meh. You should read my ISO to see I can't possibly be an egyptian.
- AV attack on D1 post BS wagon dying down
- Started Mothrax voting after Quadz treestump

Trust me I’ll be looking at your ISO but this is the sort of comment that puts my hair on end. I’ll have to re-read but claiming a push on AV Day 1 as a viable reason why you can’t be Egyptian is absurd. AV was in little danger (again, from memory) so that’s perfect distancing material.

P-edit: You have your theories of which is more probable - I have mine. Unless I find evidence to the contrary, I'll run with 3/3.

I didn’t say that one was any more probable than the other. I just don’t like rocketing into “Completely Unsupported Theory Time”.

Don't see the purpose in claiming anything else right now; if it arises, I'll claim (or) during MC (or) if it looks like I'll be lynched

You’ve already used it. It isn’t coming back. If it delivered any sorts of viable information holding onto it risks losing it to a NK (if you are Town). The only reason not to disclose is that it gives away your Normal ability.

--

So, I take it you believe LC and gandalf. But what do you think of LC in general?

You take it wrong. I’m very distrustful of Gandalf at this stage. See the above where it pretty much is established that either LC or Gandalf MUST be lying. His execution ability doesn’t confirm him in my mind and his redirect N1 was very suspect. I could very well see him fake-claiming to have redirected someone to the kill.

In fact him redirecting Chesskid or Shadow to Chrono lurks as a strong possibility in my mind.

I had a Town read on LC that came early Day 1. Chesskid’s constant refrain of “LUZLZ LC IS SCUMZZORS’ has certainly had an effect on that read. I’m going to have to re-ISO him to take a read-check in light of the two flips.

But we don't have actual proof of Conspiracy being a RB, have we? Did AGar ever confirm the N1 block? Okay, reading along, he did a couple of pages later. Eh, chesskid claimed early on and Conspiracy was the roleblocker if AGar was roleblocked N1, so unlikely.

1. No, we have no proof about Conspiracy being a RB other than his word, which means exactly zilch.
2. How does Chesskid claiming exclude the possibility that he and Conspiracy ran a gambit based on Chesskid’s N1 target?

I’m not saying I strongly believe it. However the way that Conspiracy framed his claim and the surrounding “Look into Chesskid when I flip Town” smells. He knew he wasn’t flipping Town so why say all that? What does Scum gain?

And now I see later on you claim you know Conspiracy was a RB. Hmmmm …

[MagnaofIllusion]

TL - DR Summary

for those who are reading skill impaired or have the attention span of a hyper 3 year old -

LC's claim that Axel had a 1-shot Execution Power effectively places KC in a 1 V 1 with Gandalf today. Unless Iec wants to solve that issue with the application of 10,000 volts of hot Daykill I don't see any reason to lynch outside those two today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And most importantly, I think that you're missing the part where I'm proved to have the ability, so how can I be the liar? If you want to think that there can only be one execute ability, then LC is the one who's lying because IVE BEEN PROVEN TO HAVE BEEN TELLING THE TRUTH.

YOU SEEM TO BE MISSING THE POINT THAT YOUR ABILITY DOESN'T DO SHIT FOR CONFIRMING YOUR ALIGNMENT. ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF A SIMILAR ABILITY BEING CLAIMED (VIA UNRELIABLE THIRD PARTY) BY CONFIRMED TOWN.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In regards to Gemini’s claimed Super –

I vote for

Gandalf

to be the Copped player. If it is determined he is lying about anything he has claimed we can have Iec kill him and then lynch based on Gandalf’s flip.

--

LC's claim is also highly suspect in general.

Explain. Please do.

Because I’ve seen roles with the ability to speak with dead players in multiple games here on MS. Including Espeonage’s role in the CYS game you recently Modded. Which was a PR heavy Large game just like this one.

--

Yes. But I'm proved to have the ability.... You think that scum having a more powerful version of a town ability is more likely than two town having the same ability when one's incredibly weak and the other is VERY powerful?

Yes, I do. Because scum is outnumbered by the nature of the game. Since Town has a wide variety of powers scum need some pretty potent abilities to make up for that. Thus I can certainly see the scum variation of an ability being more powerful than the Town version.

But what I find telling – you accept at face value that LC is telling the truth based on your response to my comments. You don’t even seem to consider the possibility LC is lying – instead you steam straight ahead with “Town could have two Exectutes”.

That’s a pretty telling scum-slip. You know LC is telling the truth because he isn’t on your team.

Confirm Vote – Gandalf

.

--

- Gandalf's absolute insistence on D2 saying he was *confirmed* was a town tell for me
- mothrax's D2 L2 vote on gandalf make me think gandalf is not egyptian for sure

1. I don’t really believe in concrete Town tells from this sort of posting myself. Another case of differing views of the game, IMO.
2. Um, so what? Aren’t you the one who believes we are in a 3-3 scenario? Why again can’t Gandalf be Norse or whatever other pantheon you think is lurking around?

--

Meh? Meh what? Meh like mod incredibly vague, meh like shitty item (i.e. not the vig you gave to Iec)?

Crappy item. I have a list of 5 things that can be made into items. The list contains some pretty odd items. I chose to forge an item that I didn’t think I was likely to predict what it produced as a test of Mod’s thought processes. The item was not impressive due to the nature of the game currently.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So that one was obviously not, what you gave to Iec...

Yes. What I gave Iec was an educated guess as to the most likely item to be a Vig item based on the N1 data I had. When I forge and pass on in the same Night I don’t get information about what I made.

That’s why I asked Iec in vague terms at first before he confirmed that it was a useful item.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Gandalf is town - believe my read on this ..

You are asking for a whole lot of faith regarding multiple topics. I don’t have enough faith left to blindly following yet another Town read from someone this game. I’ve already exhausted it.

Also I am with SD on this - you should target the player you think has the most hope of surviving till endgame and winning it for scum ..

I agree. I’ve let me current focus on Gandalf blind me to my own Cop philosophy.

Gemini – I’m voting for You to Make your own Choice and thus to be held accountable for it

.

--

LC ISO for relational tells / other suspect posts

–

I have zero issues with LC questioning Snow Bunny about her non-vote in RVS. I obviously had enough concern that I did a large Snow Bunny meta read.

I’m having a hard time finding specific posts I find troublesome Day1 yet the general feel on re-read is not Town. I can’t point to specific posts but I’m getting the strong sense of passive posting. Short posts, general softball questions that aren’t followed up on (see his Mothrax interaction), lots of Devil’s advocate style posting.

Day 2 I get a strong sense in reading his posts and Lynch 2 suspicions that he was following the crowd (which I think Axel actually commented on, IIRC).

Overall not much in the way of interactions or behavioral tells I’m seeing. I’ve revised my gut Day 1 Town read to place him solidly in the middle of the pack.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna: All well and fine, but have you played with LC before, Magna? All this sounds to me like typical LC play. I don't say he is town, but I'd feel at huge tretch to call him scum for that.

I have never played with LC before.

--

@All Players

- Anyone who can explain why Chrono's claim of giving Shadow a double-vote doesn't appear to be true needs to do so immediately!

@Chrono

- I see you posting elsewhere - who is scum?

[MagnaofIllusion]

/prod-dodge

I have no explanation why my Normal didn't activate. The only thing I can think of is a roleblock. Which no one is claiming.

Gemini Should go with their own choice, and take full responsibility.

This doesn't answer the question I asked - who is Scum?????

[MagnaofIllusion]

welp sicne im apparently getting mislynched at some point unavoidably due to very stupid people (VSPs)
i'm going to lurk now

bye

Textbook play from the Chesskid scum playbook – go defeatist when there is suspicion as it will make you look Town. SSK’s XXL Random Mafia is a perfect example of this in action.

@Iec

– if things don’t pan out from Gemini / Chrono’s promised Supers Chess would look to be a possible good Dayvig candidate.

--

If I'm scum, the motivations I have are to draw the investigation away from me and possible scumbuddies (Gandalf it looks like) - but just go through my ISO .. It's quite obvious I'm town .. And my scum-meter is good this game .. (Quadz was a misread; Plum\SB were misreads but that was before a single flip).

Dear god this reeks of over-justification of Towniness ...

Gemini, I KNOW I'm right on AGar\Chess .. I'm willing to bet I'm right on AGM .. Less confidence in LC though ..

I recall Town ooba putting much more effort into explaining why he’s right than just saying “I know I’m correct”.

It's a very acceptable\good play for scum to declare one person as *confirmed* town if it makes people believe my fakeclaim later .. It's not WIFOM ..

Actually it is the textbook definition of WIFOM. It’s also entirely possible that Town has Role information confirming another Town.

Anyway I really do not want to get drawn into the last egyptian discussion now (The only reason why I was thinking about this is that I cannot reconcile the Chrono block with LC scum) .. Got myself a norse team to find ..

Explain the downside of Town lynching the last Egytpian god today (assuming of course that your 3-3 speculation is actually correct). Because I don’t see much downside in eliminating an anti-Town kill.

--

We will choose since most seem to be fine with that, but still think it's useful to see who other players WOULD choose if we left it up to town.

It is no more useful than normal voting procedures, IMO. Exactly the same as putting a Dayvig up for ‘public’ control. Cyclical Experiment Mafia proved how ineffective that is.

[MagnaofIllusion]

SO WHY BOTHER IM TRYING TO BE PROTOWN ABOUT THIS

Whining that you are going to be lynched by ‘Very Stupid People’ and then saying you are going to lurk is hardly Pro-Town.

--

No I'm trying to
- overcome any fears that Gemini might have about me being scum pushing an agenda
- Trying to appeal to her to follow my lead by showing her that my reads have been above average this game

I’m yet to see where you are disagreeing with my assessment. That said I have a question:

How does your ‘reads’ being good this game preclude you being a member of the second faction you support the existence of? It would be best in ‘Norse’ scum ooba’s best interests to properly scum-hunt the Egyptian faction, yes?

I've narrowed it down to {LC, Chrono} with Gemini being an outside chance. We can take care of the egyptian in the Lynch. Plus 4-2 is also possible which I is why I want Norse culled down with the daykill first.

That’s not an answer. You are further and further distancing yourself into more elaborate set-up corners.

What if it is 3-3? Isn’t it better to assure via Daykill that a Single faction is completely eliminated before the lynch so that the Daykill missing the last Egyptian gives us a second chance to eliminate a full faction via lynch?

What if it is 4-2 with 4 Egyptians? Unless you both Daykill and lynch members of the same faction you don’t accomplish a reduction of Nightkills. Giving preference to hunting one faction over the other is a null gain to Town.

What if it is 4-2 with 2 Egyptians? This is the only set-up where hunting the ‘second’ faction makes logical sense from a Town net benefit standpoint as they are the only one left.

What if it is 5/6 – 0? In this case hunting for non-Egyptians is a net negative to Town (unless there is a Serial Killer).

Feel free to assign probability weights to each circumstance but unless the 4-2 with two Egyptians is vastly more probable than any other set-up (like, 90% likely) then specifically hunting the non-Egyptian faction (if it exists) is likely at best a null if not slight negative to Town. Especially since we only have relational tells based on Egyptians at this juncture.

@Iece, LC + Chess scum team doesn't make sense at all.

True. But any combination of Chess / LC as Town or differing Mafia factions makes some level of sense, correct?

--

I really don't like Ooba's latest argumentation. It seems far too selective and focussed on rather forced scum tells...

This is the last of a series of comments directed at ooba by Shadow that make me start to twitch. Multi-scum would not preclude, IMO, scum AGar clearing scum Shadow Day 1 with a small scum team. Don’t think it is likely but possible.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Clearing Statements / Actions so far in the game

–

I’m compiling this here because the amount of clearances / vouchers is getting large and I want to be able to clearly assess play based on them. If this list is missing something or incorrect please let me know.

AGar is clearing ShadowDancer as Poseiden.
Chesskid is clearing LC of being the N2 castration killer based on a claimed Role-block.
Chesskid and AGM are semi cleared of being Egpytian due to counterclaims from known scum.
Iec is 99% cleared of being Egyptian due to leading the lynch on AV via claimed Superpower.
Shadow is clearing Iec , AGM and ooba as having used their Supers as claimed in thread.

-

@Gemini and Chrono

– At this stage I’m waiting for outcomes of your ‘Super’ useages before really diving into further reads and ISO reviews.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have no objections to being role-copped.

That said I doubt that's the best move but I want to see what Gemini does.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Plus there are parts of your role that haven't quite been revealed, so it would confirm Gemini's ability for real too. Also, didn't AGM claim AFTER AV? So he could still be the last Egyptian, since AV was pretty much confirmed to be going down anyways.

Yes it would reveal my Super (which I have not claimed). Still suboptimal from the standpoint of catching scum which should be the number 1 priority. But your push is to confirm me is noted.

How do you reconcile Shadow's claim that AGM used his Super shortly after being put up for likely L2 lynch with AGM as scum? Because both caught scum lied about using their Supers but AGM did not.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think it's a stretch certainly, but it could be coincidence. Calling him cleared would be a bad idea. In addition, you haven't claimed the names of your inventions, so revealing your super wouldn't be necessary.

True. That said the names of my iraw materials per Role PM are not going to reveal anything. I only have listed the Raw ingredients I use to Forge ... nothing is said about the end result. You should have been able to understand that based on my exchange with Iec (if you were actually reading that is).

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes, but if she knew what they were, then it would confirm her ability.

So what? Confirming her ability doesn't confirm her Town. The only useful upside to her ability is catching scum.

You are too focused on confirmation as opposed to scum-hunting Gandalf.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Iec - can you hold of 24 hours to let me review the ISOs when I have time?

Ok – I’ve read Gemini’s claim on Dekes and Dekes’ response.

I’m very happy because both of them were in a position of below the radar play that was troubling me.

Gemini’s result fits with my review of AV that said he was potentially distancing from Dekes.

Crumbing as Masons is absolutely a must. You can look at both my games as Mason (Reck’s Weeds Mafia and ooba’s Mad World Time Travel Mafia) as examples. And doubly so in a game where roles are not revealed. It’s an easy fake-claim for scum to make. I’ll be reviewing SnowBunny and Dekes Day 1 to see if I see any signs tomorrow.

I find it suspect that we have both Masons and Neighbors in the same set-up.

--

%&/+#!&#$! I trusted you, Gemini.

Vote: Gemini

You really want this to be 1 on 1, scum rolecop?

This is the reaction I expected to see … except for the first line.

@Dekes

– why did you ‘trust’ Gemini?

Watched AGar Night 1, mothrax and Chronopie visited him.
AGM Night 2, no visitors.

I’ll be reviewing these assertions as well.

@Dekes

– Why did you wait till Night 1 to watch Chess permanently?

I don't believe in crumbs.

That’s a pretty foolish statement if you are Town.

Why would somebody ever crumb masons? There's no advantage in it, scum might pick up on it and town gains no advantage from it unlike an investigation role. And you can just confirm yourself by the flip of your mason buddy.

1. To prevent a scum counter-claim. A viable breadcrumb is just the evidence you need to guarantee you don’t get lynched in a gambit.
2. In this case because we only have ‘your word’ that you were Masons at all.
--

Well we have another 1v1. Time to roll the dice.

You do know that Iec is holding 10,000 Volts of hot, flaming Daykill to resolve this situation as he chooses if he wants, right? No need to immediately vote.

--

WHAT, AGAR

WHY

Have you bothered to consider the implications of Dekes’ claim on Agar’s alignment? I’m just curious if you’ve thought about the ramificiations …

--

It was that or fucking confirm him as town........

DERP … she, as scum, could just ‘confirm’ one of her partner’s fake-claims as opposed to giving the information on Dekes.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Iec - can you hold of 24 hours to let me review the ISOs when I have time?

MoI, can we speed this up? Unless you can think of a reason why Gemini scum would trade 1vs1 on Dekes - I think we can go ahead with the daykill ..

I think there needs to be a lot of discussion before today's lynch and don't want deadlines forcing us to lynch without discussion .. I think a mass claim might be in order (or left over people claiming anyway) ..

Yeah yeah I'm working on it ... RL is killing me and I've had catchups in another two games. Give me an hour or so.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Review of Dekes ISO for the following claims

–

1. Masons with SnowBunny
2. Watched Agar N1 and AGM N2
3. Perma-watched Chesskid
4. Other interesting points

ISO 1 / 2

– Votes CMAR ( ooba ) while saying diddin is a good wagon to consider. In his next post votes diddin with no reasoning other than “a superior wagon”. In context this all happens before diddin called SnowBunny scum of any sort but for calling out Chesskid (possible linkage).

ISO 9

– “Remind me to take a look at Snow_Bunny’s ISO”. As has been stated before this makes little sense from a Mason partner. Masons have no reason to distance. The death of one Mason absolutely confirms the other and thus it makes sense for them to have a complete lack of suspicion, if not strong ties

ISO 10

– “Speacking of which, diddin the first one jumping at mothrax after chess attacks him is distinctive for diddin's play.” Note he attempts to smear diddin by saying his move to Mothrax (confirmed scum) is suspect.

“Mothrax is doing nothing else than half the town does, including you: Thinking BS and diddin are scum and/or detrimental to town. He's only choosing the lazy way in suggesting using two lynches on them instead of letting night actions take care of business.” – more defense of Mothrax

ISO 12

– “b) In an all-PR game, scum's NK preference will be getting rid of dangeorus players over PR-hunting.” – I think the kills so far have shown this NOT to be the case given the players who have fallen to NK.

“Because you didn't remind me like I asked!
Nah, I did ISO her because I felt she was flying under the radar. But that's all there's to it. Don't feel she's avoiding any hot topic. Though the input on BS is minimal. But she's voting diddin so it's all good.” – more the kind of reaction I would expect re Masons when ooba questions Dekes’ re-read.

That ends Day 1

–

ISO 13

– “Bye bye, SB :/” – I’m curious why, when asked about bread-crumbs, Dekes didn’t point to this. Its clear that was 100% of the reason this comment was made, faking the claim or not.

“Chono, are you expecting someone specific to claim getting a "Grace" pm or not?” – Not sure how this fits in with his claim of seeing Chrono going to AGar N1. Could read either way.

ISO 17

– “It’s AGar” – Comes 15 minutes after Charon corrected the VC showing AGar as a double vote. Not evidence of successful watch.

ISO 26

– “The way how are you keep avoiding pressuring ooba, yet still calling him scum on a constant basis, is quite telling. You voted CMAR way back based on a pretty weak reason and you refuse to update that case although I and somebody else (Magna?) have asked you to do so.” – This is in regard to Mothrax. Reads as possible soft distancing. I see hints of suspicion but nothing following up on them.

ISO 29

= “Out of mothrax and Axel, I'm definitely leaning mothrax. Originally I had info which led me to believe mothrax was town but in light of recent events that info may be faulty. And no, I'm not elaborating.” – In context this comes after Quadz’s stump. At the time mothrax had just fallen behind Axelrod as the Lynch2 target by two votes. Safe parking location?

ISO 43

– “How? Can you only target people from one of the death stages? Any reason why you picked SB over Plum?” – Very interesting little nugget regarding LC’s claim. If he thought LC was Town I would think he would have agreed whole-heartedly with LC contacting SB.

1. He could counter-claim any lies LC tries to spin since SB and Dekes are ‘Masons’
2. LC if telling the truth could have LC confirm his Mason status with SB.

Town Dekes should have even been pushing for LC to Super Snow Bunny.

ISO 44

– “But we don't have actual proof of Conspiracy being a RB, have we? Did AGar ever confirm the N1 block? Okay, reading along, he did a couple of pages later. Eh, chesskid claimed early on and Conspiracy was the roleblocker if AGar was roleblocked N1, so unlikely.” – Doesn’t jibe with his N1 claimed results, IMO.

ISO 45

– “Also, we're revolving way too much about confirming LC's claim, which says nothing about his alignment. I believe his claim, it matches his nameclaim, matches with the fact that there are two death stages, the neighborhood part should be confirmable and the axelrod talk seems to elaborate for a scum fake claim, considering LC can't even clear himself by proving his power.
But if he's town, he will share all the axelrod info as we go all along, and if he's scum he will lie and withhold information as it suits him. I'm gonna treat the axelrod bits like a non-confirmed version of quadz.” – In context this is after LC ‘activated’ his super.

I’ve looked at the chain of events. LC claims Commune at 1697. Dekes’ next post is ISO 43 where he questions why LC chose Snow Bunny over Plum. Actual Mason Dekes should have been SCREAMING for LC to Commune Snow Bunny and confirm his future Mason claim.

I’ve seen enough.

Light him up Iec!

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – I’ll be V/LA from 4pm EST today til Tuesday for the holiday weekend and my usual weekend family duties.

--

@ooba re: 2025

– I have two issues with this post.

1. You’ve taken the logical path but are still assuming that we are in a 3/3 setup. If you have solid reasons that tell you this you need to post them ASAP.
2. If your assertion is that Chrono-scum just gave AGar scum a permanent bonus vote would not lynching Chrono be the right course of action to stave off LYLO?

--

And I do think that "burned to death" is Gemini's kill flavor. Always good to have info easily available to incriminate others.

So you are claiming that Gemini swiped their own kill flavor to frame you with. And that kill flavor happens to quite coincidentally match your ‘actual’ role Apollo to a tee? Not buying this at all.

1. But this will always lead to a guaranteed 1v1 which scum don't want. A flipped mason is confirmation enough for the other mason(s).

Yes, but this scenario often happens in LYLO where tomorrow is not a concern.


--

I just came up with the most convincing reason not to kill Dekes: He's the last of his faction most likely, since he's Egyptian. So if ANYBODY shows up as burnt to death, we lynch him immediately. If we ever have a night with two kills and no burnt to death flavor, Dekes is confirmed town and we kill Gemini. Meantime: Chess or LC?

MoI’s personal scum tell number 4 detected – claiming that it is a good idea to let someone who is likely scum live for any reason.

If Dekes is the last of his faction then letting him live absolutely means we get another scum NK (baring block / JK on him) with no tangible benefit other than lynching / killing Dekes at a later day. Not Pro-Town in any way, shape or form.

@Dekes: Why would scum defend you this hard, knowing you were town?

Yes, why would scum White-knight so strongly for a Town player who is on the death block. Why indeed?

--

That would definitely leave a black mark on LC...

If Dekes flips Town – yeah, I’d need LC to absolutely claim his Neighbors immediately. Otherwise it’s a null tell.

So - was it Isis or Basted who turned people into sand?

Assuming ooba’s 3/3 split holds it was likely Isis. Turning someone to sand via magic seems like reasonable flavor.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In looking back at 'Axelrod' summary of claims I have the following lingering concerns –

1. Chronopie’s lack of Double-Vote given to Shadow claim for N2. Both Chesskid and Shadow have claimed not to have blocked Chrono.
2. No-one is claiming to be motivated N2 to support Gandalf’s N1 claims.

I have some possible solutions in my head but need the following information –

@MOTIVATOR

– You need to claim that you have that ability in your next post or forfeit the ability to later claim it as a Town role. I don’t want your role / flavor / color / whatever. You need to only claim the following –

1. Why you motivated Gandalf N1
2. Who you motivated N2 (or explain why you didn’t).

[MagnaofIllusion]

I suggest that ooba's Mass claim plan as last constituted continue ...

I'll be gathering together a list of various possible Teammate conflicts and claim conflicts when I have the time to assist in the remainder of today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Welcome Nacho

– get to reading please. I like that you picked up on Gandalf-scum immediately on replace-in.

Good luck AGar!

RL always takes precedence!!

My compiled list of claims and possible conflicts is still coming but it will take me more time than I have right now to pull together.

I haven’t officially stated but I think it was obvious –

I had nothing to do with Gandalf’s claimed motivation.

Regarding Dekes’ parting words – they should be taken with a

grain

whole shaker of salt. It’s WIFOM coming from any scum when there is clear question about the set-up. The fact that Dekes didn’t bother to say “Hey, I think X,Y, and Z” are the opposing faction further clouds these waters. Tread carefully and don’t make any decisions without considering this fact.

--

I’m currently very happy with my vote on Gandalf.

1. Scumtastic overall play, IMO.
2. Execution ability conflicts with claimed Axel ability via LC.
3. Poor reasoning for redirection Night choices based on ‘claimed’ suspicion in thread.
4. WIFOM-tastic recent play regarding Dekes. My guess – if we are in a two full scum-set-up that Gemini might make a very good partner for Gandalf. His push to make sure she was killed first when there was no chance of that happening reads like clumsy and bad distancing.
5. Strong mounting evidence of botched fake-claim.
6. More I’m probably forgetting at this point due to fatigue.

Okay, I apparently didn't phrase this clearly enough. Why would I whiteknight for town with THAT POWERFUL OF A ROLE.

1. For a double-blind distance from potential partner Gemini as outlined above.
2. Dekes wasn’t Town so your white-knighting makes even less sense.

Well, Gemini COULD still be scum, since there are two teams........ But that's not where the spotlight needs to be at all.

1. Confirmation of two teams still not available to uninformed Town.
2. More potential Gemini linkage.

Yeah, I don't know why I'm failing so hard this game. :/

Is it because you hate being scum and can’t play effectively when you have to ‘fake’ scum-hunting?

--

@ooba

– the following Mod post I thinks takes some of the sting out of your MYLO worries –

With 12 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is Saturday, June 4th, 2011, 10:00PM PST.

We have 11 alive. Gemini’s perm vote takes it to 12 and thus Seven to lynch. Mislynch plus one NK creates the following scenario tomorrow (not considering Chrono’s regular ability)

9 alive, 10 votes in play, thus 6 to lynch. The only way Scum can mislynch me (if I am correct) is if Chrono is scum and they can amass 5 votes for their team. I feel we can marshal a Night action contingency plan too deal with that. Or remove via lynch the Perm doublevoter Gemini as that guarantees scum can only possibly amass 4 votes even with a mislynch of Gemini (if it is one) today.

@MOD – Please confirm that any bonus vote effects in the game have the same effect on the lynch threshold as the statement I quoted above indicates. Thank you!

So this was a feint? If so, I love you for it ..

Um why? I have more concerns about Gemini scum than AGar scum personally. Rolecop Super combined with Iec’s Regular Cop Super doesn’t make any of my concerns about Gemini the hydra’s low profile playstyle dissapate.

--

LC

Gandalf= lynch for today. The whole using power ITT is just more icing on the cake.

I’ve fixed this for you AGM. Please adjust your mindset accordingly.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'll be marshalling a post later tonight ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Chrono

– I think you had best think very carefully about who you empower with an extra vote tonight.

@Nacho

– Please confirm whether LC’s claimed Neighbors are correct in your next post.

@AGM

– Get your ass back in here and vote Gandalf. Read below if you want the compelling reason why. Gandalf is obv trying to save his own skin and Chess is a derp but you I expect better of.

@Motivator

- If you somehow are still in the game and Town please motivate me tonight. Two awesome Forges are better than 1!

--

@MoI: Your response to my third quote is hilarious. I fucking LOVE being scum. In blackest night I chose Orange and Red as my colors(if you remember, I was in that game at first). Apathy for me is a towntell. Yes, I know it's WIFOM. Get over it. And once again, I WOULD BET CASH MONEY ON TWO SCUMTEAMS.

The funny part is that the only good half of your case hinges on two scumteams.

Plus its fairly obvious that you're defending LC FAR more than he deserves. chess+LC+MoI scumteam. Calling it now. Especially since MoI hasn't died yet.

1. Large dose of useless self-meta. Check.
2. The bolded is interesting. Those are observations about potential teammates if we are in multi-scum with you as non-Egyptian. You’ve played scummy enough that you need rope regardless of the set-up.
3. Aha … the clarion call of “Why aren’t I dead yet”. Wondered who would be first to bring that up. Congrats on doing it only when under suspicion … extra-scum points for you.

Once again, I just didn't think it through all the way.

Yet on the spur of the moment when you were suddenly contacted to take a second action you immediately thought to redirect Shadow? And why Agar as the redirect target if you thought Shadow was SK? Quotes from you about Agar from Day 1

I trust AGar for the most part.

@MoI-re:AGar: I think he means that the same info that tells him that Poseidon is in the game also strongly implies that he is town/not SK.

That’s all your direct quotes about Agar Day 1. Nothing indicating he would be a good SK redirect target. The more you post the more your story falls apart. Case in point –

Description of ky picture: skinny muscular chick in a black garment that barely covers what it needs to. She's got a purple sash around her shoulder, and her hand is outstretched and has an Apple floating above it. In her other hand she had a staff. Black hair is held up by a gold ring. I have similar bracelets on my wrist and upper arms. And I have a gold thing around my waist too. On top of that, I have black wings sprouting from my back. I'm barefoot too. I don't feel comfortable getting into any more detail.

HOLD THE FUCK UP!!!

This is the picture that is staring at you at the top of your Role Pm. A hot chick. And you for some reason ‘forgot’ she was a Goddess when you made your earlier claim?

NO FUCKING WAY IN HELL YOU FORGET THAT PIC. YOUR FAKE CLAIM IS COMPLETELY BUSTED.

CONFIRM VOTE – GANDALF

KILL IT WITH FUCKING GREEK FIRE.

THE NEXT PERSON WHO DOESN’T VOTE GANDALF NEEDS TO EXPLAIN IN ANY DETAIL WHY THEY HAVE REMOVED THEIR LOGIC CENTERS FROM THEIR BRAIN.

--

Regarding Gemini, I had an early town read on them and given that reads have been slightly accurate this game - I see no reason not to trust it. Regarding the Rolecop Super + Regular Cop super, I think two one-shot cops + possible Tracker (SB) seems fine in the investigative department for town.

How do you know Snow was a tracker? Were there breadcrumbs I missed? Because Dekes’s word on the subject is pretty useless in that regard.

@ooba

– Not sure what to make of your claim. On one hand it is a reasonable power to have in a PR rich game. On the other hand it can’t be tested until you die and even then if there are not multiple neighbors around it is effectively untestable.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD - Vote Count Please!!!!

[MagnaofIllusion]

AGM- WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU SMOKING!!!!

SERIOUSLY YOU'VE MADE ME GO CAPSLAWK WITH THAT INSANITY.

YOU DON'T THINK SCUM WERE PROVIDE PICS FOR THEIR FAKE-CLAIMS? YOU ARE BASING YOUR DEFENSE BASED ON MOD FUCKING OUTGUESSING????

I THOUGH GANDALF WAS NUMBER 2 ON YOUR LYNCH LIST!!!! WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO THAT?

FUCKING EXPLAIN HOW GANDALF

SEES

THAT PIC THE FIRST TIME HE OPENS HIS ROLE PM AND

EVER EVER

MAKES THE MISTAKE IN CLAIMING HE'S A GOD.

EXPLAIN IT !!!!!!!

YOU FUCKING CAN'T. HE'S SCUM AND YOU NEED TO FUCKING VOTE HIM RIGHT NOW!!!!

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Everyone

– if you ascribe to Ooba’s two scum / Norse as second team theory I’d like you to consider Gandalf’s claim. His butchering of the God / Goddess in his claim fits nicely in with the possibility that he is Loki, the Norse Trickster God. It’s a nicely themed match to his claimed role.

--

less Q Q
more PEW PEW

Then move your vote to Gandalf.

--

Make Artemis a tracker and make Ra a scum watcher with an apoolo fakeclaim. Not based on breadcrumbs; just seems a elegant addition to the setup.

Meh. I’m not going to make assumptions based on what I think is an elegent set-up addition. You may be correct. You may be dead wrong (as you have been with some of your other speculations … Dekes for example). It’s not effective Town play to based reads on conjecture.

--

@MoI: But if Gandalf had the picture in his fake PM he'd also stared at it and not forgotten that is is a goddess.... Unless he just carelessly copypasted the discription from his real role PM - which then would obviously not be Eris...

Don’t outthink the room trying to figure out Gandalf’s play.

Ask yourself this –

Would Town Gandalf with the Role PM he is claiming make the mistakes in his claims that he did? If you can't reasonably see it then the remainig option is he isn't Town. In this case his inadventant 'typo' regarding Eris as God isn't something I can see from Town.

--

I don't thinly I was a god. I know too much about Greek myth to do that. I simply forgot the des at the end.

Let me get this straight. You always thought you were a Goddess. You just inadvertently forgot to typo –dess when making your claim. And this accidental typo just happens to cause the meaning of your posted Claim look exactly like a busted fake-claim.

No, not buying it.

And I dint redirect SD to agar. I redirected him to AV.

You are correct, you did claim to redirect him to AV. But you’ve managed to dodge the question at hand.

Why is it believable that SD as Serial Killer ‘slipped your mind’ when you had the full extent of Night to make your initial selection (redirecting Iec to AGM) but when you are faced with a snap decision due to the PM by Charon you suddenly remember “Hey, I need to redirect SD”?

And why was AV your choice for your second target? Here’s the list of your Day 1 posts that question / respond to / mention AV at all –

….

Yeah that’s right … none.

Nice caps lock though. And that isn't useless selfmeta. That's me correcting you blatantly lying when you have personal experience that tells you I prefer being scum.

Um Whut? Your choice selections in Blackest Night (which I didn’t even remember you were in since you flaked / replaced IN THE SIGN-UP THREAD) means you enjoy being scum? That's hardly Meta evidence seing as you DIDN'T EVEN PLAY THE GAME.

And I'm glad that you have a case that doesn't hinge on two scumteams....... did you forget to post that one in the thread?

See, here I know you aren’t paying attention. I’ve been clearly stating since Ooba started the “Two Teams” talk that I don’t know whether there are multiple scum teams or just one. Anyone reading the thread would know this.

Your post above is just looking for anything you think you can claim is scummy so as to wiggle out of the noose that is waiting for you today.

And yes, I brought up that you haven't died yet. You haven't. And that is definitely weird. I brought it up just now because up until now I hadn't taken a close look at you.

How do you know I wasn’t the target of the ‘missing’ kill last night? Hmmmm? We haven't had to have protection claims as of yet.

And answer me this – if I was scum with Chesskid and LC why would I hand a Daykill to Iec? Hmmmm?

[MagnaofIllusion]

You're getting REALLY desperate, aren't you?

Nope. Not desperate at all. Just pointing out a possibility that came to mind when thinking about your butchered fake-claim.

Another HUGE contradiction........ You reject this, but assume that all fakeclaims align with the real role based on a sample size of 1.......

Are you trying to make me laugh?

Ooba’s speculation is just that .. speculation. Nothing inherently wrong at all about not relying on those speculated assumptions when looking for scum.

On the other hand we have evidence that scum fake-claims in the game match thematically with their real claims (Dekes claiming Apollo the Sun God when he was Ra the Sun God). Your assertion that the sample size is 1 is also incorrect. AV claimed a protection role with his fake-claim and flipped Bastet, Egyptian Goddess of PROTECTION and Cats.

Are you arguing that the Mod didn’t give fake-claims that thematically matched their real roles?

Where's the so called contradiction?

You don't think it's possible that I looked at my role PM, then looked back, and in trying to paraphrase, I accidentally forget four fucking letters?

No, it wasn't a typo. It was just a fuckup.

Nope. I don’t buy it.

Because even though I still forgot that I thought he was an SK, he was a huge suspect of mine(although still ignored by most everyone else, so he still fit the scummy but largely ignored bill).

You during Night 1 suddenly forgot you thought he was a Serial Killer even though that was pretty much what you made most of your Day 1 posts about?

Yeah, still not buying it.

I didn't think AGM was scum either(my first redirection, if you remember). My vigging philosophy, especially N1(I was treating my redirect like a vig) is to kill people who are hard to read and aren't really contributing.

1. That’s the stupidest Vig philosophy ever. Works great for a Cop philosophy. For a Vig philosophy? FAIL.
2. Why was I, who you have multiple time said am very difficult to read, never been the target of your redirection?

No, your case really does look like a piece of garbage once you take out the parts that assume there are two scumteams. And contradictions aren't reaching. You called me scum for assuming there were two scumteams and then made a case THAT ENTIRELY DEPENDED ON TWO SCUMTEAMS. HOW IS THAT NOT FUCKING SCUMMY. ANd yes, I'm aware that you've been saying that you don't know how many scumteams there are. WHICH MAKES IT EVEN WEIRDR THAT YOU MADE A CASE THAT HINGES ON THAT ASSUMPTION.

None of your scummy play depends on Two scum-teams. Sorry to break that to you. Let’s examine –

1. Scummy Night action choices? Doesn’t require Two scum-teams.
2. Execution ability that conflicts with a claimed Execution ability from a Confirmed Town player? Doesn’t require Two scum-teams.
3. White-knighting Dekes? Doesn’t require two scum-teams. You certainly pushed for Gemini to be Bolted over him and then came back with the WIFOM excuse as to ‘Why would I as scum do that?”
4. Botched fake-claim? Doesn’t require two scum-teams.

That’s just off the top of my head. None of which require a scum team. I notice you don’t give reasons why it is a piece of garbage. You just throw rhetoric in some desperate attempt to save yourself from the noose.

You very well could have. I don't see AGM protecting you though. That said, I keep having to remind myself that it's only D3. It feels like later in the game for some reason. This point probably isn't valid.

So you don’t see AGM as possibly protecting me N3 even though he already said he did N1? Yeah, you aren’t thinking things through.

Most likely, you can only give it to players not on your scumteam. Most scum inventors have that restriction(see Ythill's Gypsy Mafia or whatever, where the exact same thing happened, and then everybody treated Troll like confirmed town for it and they lost).

Then why would I bother to give Not-Mafia-with-Me a Daykill? Give me the scum motivation for that that doesn’t involve referencing a game that has no relation (via Mod) to this one?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm going to continue grinding Gandalf's posts into scummy, scummy dust until 1 of the 3 following things happens -

1. The last three votes necessary to lynch him appear.
2. The day ends.
3. Someone provides irrefutable evidence that someone else is scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I do not oppose this lynch;

This is in regards to Gandalf

But all this conflicts with my town read on Gandalf - ya, I know I can be wrong but I was sure of it

These back to back posts don’t make sense. If you have a Town read on Gandalf that you are quite sure of you should definitely be opposed to his lynch.

My paranoia about ooba is rising.

One of the reasons the Chess-AGM-Agar scum team made sense was because if there are two scum teams, most mods prefer to use symmetry i.e trying to balance them out in numbers and power .. Which is why I preferred 3-3 over any other combination

The one downside to your symmetry argument is that AGM as scum would mean very likely Town has NO protective roles (unless they lie languishing in the graveyard with either SnowBunny or Plum). I honestly don’t see a set-up that has two scum protective roles and zero Town protective roles.

--

Looking at the claims and what we know Alma could well be scum.
Maybe he's really a scum doc. That he, contrary to AV and Moth, really used his super when said to have done so does not at all imply he's town. If he was scum about to die and if his super was really a protect he had all reason to use it, anyway.

I understand your thoughts be read my response to a similar ooba post above. AGM-scum pretty much requires Town to have no defending roles. I don’t see that as a very strong likelihood.

--

And actually, that would be a horrible Cop philosophy, and you saying it would be a good one contradicts YET AGAIN with you earlier in the game saying that you should cop people who are going to be a powerful force for town.

No, you have no idea what you are talking about. Copping hard to read players is absolutely win. [REDACTED] proves it.

MoI is NOT playing like town MoI, btw. He's getting far too irritated.

Here’s a fun exercise – how do you know how Town MoI plays via direct experience? Please provide links so we can discuss why your meta isn't valid.

Look at how many people died without claiming and tell me again that that proves he's town. Not to mention it could easily be a scum role causing it.......

Cognitive Dissonance Alert – Whoop whoop whooop

Gandalf has spent the better part of this day yelling “there is no reason Town couldn’t have double Powers” in reaction to his Execution ability being called scummy. Yet look at the reaction when someone else makes an argument that LC’s power is Town based.

1. Too many people are dead and didn’t counterclaim.
2. It could easily be a scum role causing it.

He’s picking and choosing his arguments based on what suits him. Not based on a logical assessment.

--

Gemini’s soft call out of me as scum in 2225 and subsequent back-track in 2229 is scummy. Furthermore note 2229 – when directly asked who is scum by Shadow they dodge and weave about giving any reads other than Gandalf, the leading wagon.

It just raised my hackles in this post when he suddenly got so worried about our double vote. He seemed to be implying that now that we have a double vote, we need to die so he can live longer. I would sacrifice myself for the town to get a real advantage, but I'm not so pleased to do it just so a hated townie can live one day longer.

[/quote]

Oh, so suggesting you (who I have as possible lurking scum and a good fit for a Gandalf partner) would be a better lynch than myself (who I know is 100% Town) when I’m not a MYLO liability (as said post discussed) is scummy? I want to be clear on your thought process.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't see how the two contradict each other. I'm simply saying it's a possibility(that becomes a certainty because LC IS CONFIRMED SCUM). You're acting like it's a certainty(based on........ oh right, nothing at all. When the contradiction is coming from CONFIRMED SCUM FOR CHRISSAKES).

How is LC 'confirmed Scum' again? I mean aside from your word ... which I have every reason NOT to trust.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Blah blah blah ... setup speculation ... blah blah blah.

Gandalf seriously needs the rope. Deadline is not looking like it will be extended for Mr. Replace in and V/LA.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@ooba

– You haven’t addressed at all your inconsistency in your Gandalf approach I pointed out in 2251. You need to do that in your next post.

So I talk about two scum teams and base most of my scum hunting on that and NOBODY tells me that the opening page hints at a single Mafia faction. (Use of the word "The") - I'm getting it confirmed by the mod ..

1. So suddenly you are reversing course 180 degrees after arguing endlessly with me about this topic?

Insert face-palm pic here …

2. Perhaps no-one was searching Mod posts because we were busy actually playing the game?

MoI, I really do not know if gandalf can be a Redirector SK but overall I have a town read on him. And the SK can be analyzed tomorrow (more info) since I

KNOW LC is the last Egyptian

.. (and No, I am claiming role based info - more the confidence in my read)

WTF is the bolded. Seriously – WTF?

Given the size of the set-up the odds of only having a single Mafia set-up (which you suddenly are now agreeing with) where the Mafia faction only has 4 members in next to non-existent. Given the mass of powers Town has at its disposal (via non-Vanilla game) scum HAS to be at the high end of the percentage spectrum (6 or perhaps 7 based on 33% of 20 players). 1 Serial Killer (presumed) means 5 to 6 scum. I'd guess 5 but the point remains.

@ooba

– I’d like you to comment on the single Mafia faction thing you are rolling with now and how it affects Chesskid, AGM, Iec and Gemini in regards to being possible Egyptians.

--

That makes sense.

Unvote; Vote: LC

Sheep.

Iec … buddy … get on Gandalf!

--

WHAT?!?!? makes any sense at all? We need more ooba waggon!

We are not going to get an ooba wagon today. Not enough time. Move your vote to Gandalf please!!!

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 3pm EST until next Wednesday for an actual vacation. I’ll very likely only have limited access from my cell phone for limited hours during that time.

--

Things that are bugging me –

The fact that we STILL have no explanation for Chrono’s missing double vote is really irritating me. By my estimation we have one of the following situations –

1. Either Shadow or Chess is lying about blocking him.
2. Gandalf actually redirected one of those two (probably Shadow, IMO) to Chrono for some unknown reason.
3. Shadow Dancer is actually scum who got hit with Motivation last night (subtracting one vote) while also being granted an additional vote (adding a vote).
4. Chronopie is scum and couldn’t kill and use his ability in the same Night.

No clue which of these is most likely but I don't want the fact that we have a hidden mystery on our hands slipping away.

All the SK alternate Win-con discussion is effectively Fluff at this stage and it needs to stop happening.

I get more and more of the feeling that perhaps scum hit the Serial Killer (who would have to be Bulletproof in this scenario) last Night with their kill and that today’s play might lead us to that down the line. Just a gut hunch.

--

...Guess where my vote is as of post #2215?

Then why were you telling someone else that we need more ooba pressure? I’m confused.

--

Well, it struck me as weird ... why are you worried about who is a better lynch than you when no one was suggesting lynching you?

Because as a Hated Townie I have to keep my eyes open for scenarios where my draw-back can be exploited by Scum. Ooba was the one who originally brought up the MYLO after Dekes possibility.

I was just wondering why the minute we got a double vote you suddenly started pushing us for scum and saying we had to be lynched before you, when you hadn't had anything to say about us before.

Again, the possibility of scum with a permanent double vote had to be considered. Also quite frankly your play has been whelming. I expect more from a hydra than your slot is giving.

I'd been getting a really strong town vibe from you up to that point and suddenly after the Dekes vig your posting has changed not only with you suddenly turning onto us

but pushing a Gandalf lynch to the point of all caps-locking about it, which isn't consistent with your style up until now

.

Not only were you insinuating we are scum

, but she sudden change in your posting made it worth looking into.

Bolded – quite frankly so what? Should I not be allowed to show frustration with the process of lynching Gandalf scum?
Italicized – you seem very focused on the suspicion on you. Do you think your play has been Obv-Town?

--

I think it's more likely someone on the scumteam didn't want chess blocking one of them and did something. Heck, we've seen two renditions of where scum had an ability that also belonged to town, maybe they have a redirector.

1. They do have a scum redirector. It’s you.
2. Wait, what. Suddenly you have also 180ed back onto a single scum-team. Weren’t you completely sold on two earlier?

--

"I do not oppose this lynch;" -> In context of your post above that, it reads "Well your points about gandalf are decent - so it's a viable lynch option" and the rest of my post which you cut out reads "but would like to figure stuff out before we go ahead with it"

1. This doesn’t answer the question. Why would you not oppose a lynch on a solid Town read regardless of how my case is presented? I’m not ever going to capitulate to a lynch on a solid Town read of mine when other viable scum candidates are about.
2. The ‘figure stuff out’ portion of that post has no relevance to the question. Bringing it up looks like you are clouding the waters.

Magna with single faction + SK, I think it is 4+1 tops.
Reasoning: Hated townie in a setup; plus daytalk - granted conditional daytalk - but always helps scum.

Um no. Daytalk isn’t that overwhelmingly powerful that it offsets the raw amount of Town presented Power.

N3: Protected Iece

Don’t like this at all. Had AGM gone all Pants on Head and chosen not to protect him for WIFOM he eats rope the next day. No question.

- Iecerint, Gemini are not egyptian because they both gave us one egyptian each

While I tend to agree with this assessment (with Iec more fully than Gemini) giving them an absolute pass for what could be bussing is foolhardy.

Remember this in endgame folks!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes it is to late. It's why he delayed posting for so long.

In any case he can be dealt with tomorrow.

Claim is BAD. Jailing is a very good solution.

Why hasn't Gandalf been hammered?

Still have almost no access but if we miss actually lynching today ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok back from my usual weekend V/LA …

I’ll have more comments once this ‘mandated’ claim process is complete.

Last Night I forged an item and kept it to learn what it did.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why keep it this time? What does it do?

It does something. Don't see it as important in claiming exactly what currently.

Again, more comments with this 'process' is complete.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Can you claim Item number one? (The one which you kept with yourself on N1) ..

I can claim all the items I already possess. I'm not going to.

1. I've already stated my N1 item was Meh. That's already more than I would like to have given out.
2. Scum doesn't need to have any clue what I forged. The more possibilities for me having dangerous powers the more worry they should have.

No more is being said until all the claims in this process today are in.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Who do you have strong town reads on in this game?

What about the phrase "No more is being said until after this claims process" doesn't make sense to you?

I have three strong Town reads. I'm not going to be elaborating until everything from the process YOU started finishes.

[MagnaofIllusion]

You're the ONLY person who hasn't fully claimed and I'm not going to give anybody a pass based on "scum don't need to have a clue on what I have" especially if I spot a flaw in the use of power:
- If you keep your items to yourself, you can use only one power every two nights ..
- If you give your items to any of your so called strong reads, town will be using items at the rate of one per night (or day depending on the item)..

That's you choice. I don't personally care what you like as I don't have a solid Town read on you. My power is mine to use as is best suited by MY judgement. I sent Iec what I expected to be a Kill because I had a Town read on him and thought he would be protected.

If you want to make a case that I'm scum for not telling you stuff go right ahead. But you are going to have to make it and argue it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, so while this process is playing out I’m going to assemble the parts for a partial VC analysis (excluding Day 2 for obv reasons).

Green players are confirmed Town. Red players are confirmed Scum. I’ve replaced all replacement players for all vote-counts for ease of use.

Spoiler: Day 1 Raw Vote Count -

Shadow Dancer [4] - MagnaofIllusion, AlmasterGM,

diddin

,

Snow_Bunny

Gemini [2] -

Axelrod

, Nachomamma8
Iecerint [2] -

gandalf5166

,

ConSpiracy

Nachomamma8 [2] - Iecerint,

Dekes

AlmasterGM [2] - LordChronos, Shadow Dancer

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Baby Spice

[1] -

Chronopie

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

Chronopie

[1] - chesskid3
MagnaofIllusion [1] -

quadz08

Not voting [3] -

Baby Spice

,

Plum

, Gemini

Shadow Dancer [6] - MagnaofIllusion,

Snow_Bunny

,

Baby Spice

,

Plum

,

gandalf5166

, chesskid3

diddin

[3] - Shadow Dancer,

Dekes

, Nachomamma8

Baby Spice

[1] - LordChronos
Gemini [1] -

Axelrod

Nachomamma8 [1] - Iecerint

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

Ooba[1] -

ConSpiracy

AurorusVox

[1] -

quadz08

chesskid3 [1] -

diddin

Not voting [3] - Gemini, AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

Baby Spice

[4] - LordChronos,

diddin

, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

diddin

[3] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

Shadow Dancer [2] -

Plum

,

gandalf5166

LordChronos [2] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3

Dekes

[1] - Iecerint

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

AurorusVox

[1] -

quadz08

Not voting [5] - MagnaofIllusion, Gemini, AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

,

Axelrod

Baby Spice

[7] - LordChronos, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

, Gemini,

diddin

,

Axelrod

diddin

[4] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

, MagnaofIllusion
LordChronos [2] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3

Dekes

[1] - Iecerint

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

Ooba [1] -

quadz08

Axelrod

[1] -

gandalf5166

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

Baby Spice

[6] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

, Gemini,

diddin

,

Axelrod

diddin

[4] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

, MagnaofIllusion
LordChronos [3] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3, Iecerint
Shadow Dancer [2] -

gandalf5166

,

quadz08

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

quadz08

[1] - Shadow Dancer

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

diddin

[7] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

, MagnaofIllusion, Gemini,

AurorusVox

,

gandalf5166

Baby Spice

[5] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

,

Axelrod

LordChronos [3] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3, Iecerint
Shadow Dancer [1] -

quadz08

Plum

[1] - ooba

quadz08

[1] - Shadow Dancer

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

Baby Spice

[9] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

,

Axelrod

, MagnaofIllusion, Shadow Dancer, ooba, Nachomamma8

diddin

[6] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

, Gemini,

AurorusVox

,

gandalf5166

,

Chronopie

LordChronos [2] - chesskid3, Iecerint
Shadow Dancer [1] -

quadz08

MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

Not voting [1] – AlmasterGM

Baby Spice

[8] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

, MagnaofIllusion, Shadow Dancer, Nachomamma8,

quadz08

diddin

[6] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

, Gemini,

AurorusVox

,

gandalf5166

,

Chronopie

quadz08

[1] - chesskid3
MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

Not voting [4] - AlmasterGM, Iecerint,

Axelrod

, ooba

Baby Spice

[9] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

, MagnaofIllusion, Shadow Dancer, Nachomamma8,

quadz08

, chesskid3

diddin

[5] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

, Gemini,

gandalf5166

,

Chronopie

Dekes

[2] - ooba, Iecerint
MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

Iecerint [1] -

AurorusVox

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Axelrod

diddin

[6] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

, Gemini,

Chronopie

, chesskid3, Nachomamma8

Baby Spice

[4] -

Plum

, MagnaofIllusion,

gandalf5166

, ooba
Iecerint [3] -

AurorusVox

,

diddin

,

quadz08

MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

AurorusVox

[1] - Iecerint

Not voting [5] - AlmasterGM,

Axelrod

, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

, LordChronos

Baby Spice

[6] -

Plum

, MagnaofIllusion,

gandalf5166

, ooba,

Baby Spice

, chesskid3

diddin

[5] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

, Gemini,

Chronopie

, Nachomamma8
Iecerint [3] -

AurorusVox

,

diddin

,

quadz08

AurorusVox

[1] - Iecerint

Not voting [5] - AlmasterGM,

Axelrod

, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

, LordChronos

Spoiler: Day 3 Raw Data –

LordChronos [4] - AlmasterGM, ooba, Nachomamma8,

gandalf5166

Not Voting [8] -

Chronopie

, Shadow Dancer, Iecerint,

Dekes

, Gemini, MagnaofIllusion, LordChronos, chesskid3

LordChronos [3] - AlmasterGM, ooba, Nachomamma8
chesskid3 [1] - gandanf5166

gandalf5166

[1] - MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting [7] -

Chronopie

, Shadow Dancer, Iecerint,

Dekes

, Gemini, LordChronos, chesskid3

LordChronos [2] - ooba, Nachomamma8

gandalf5166

[2] - MagnaofIllusion, LordChronos
chesskid3 [1] -

gandalf5166

Not Voting [7] - Shadow Dancer, Iecerint, chesskid3, Gemini, Gemini, AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

LordChronos [4] - ooba, AlmasterGM, chesskid3,

gandalf5166

gandalf5166

[2] - MagnaofIllusion, LordChronos
ooba [2] - Nachomamma8, Shadow Dancer

Not Voting [4] - Iecerint, Gemini, Gemini,

Chronopie

gandalf5166

[4] - MagnaofIllusion, LordChronos, AlmasterGM, chesskid3
LordChronos [3] - ooba,

gandalf5166

, Iecerint
ooba [3] - Nachomamma8, Gemini, Shadow Dancer


Not Voting [2] - Gemini,

Chronopie

gandalf5166

[5] - MagnaofIllusion, LordChronos, AlmasterGM, chesskid3, ooba
LordChronos [2] -

gandalf5166

, Iecerint
ooba [2] - Nachomamma8, Shadow Dancer

Not Voting [3] - Gemini, Gemini,

Chronopie

gandalf5166

[6] - MagnaofIllusion, LordChronos, AlmasterGM, chesskid3, ooba, Gemini
LordChronos [2] -

gandalf5166

, Iecerint
ooba [2] - Nachomamma8, Shadow Dancer


Not Voting [2] - Gemini,

Chronopie

gandalf5166

[8] - MagnaofIllusion, LordChronos, AlmasterGM, chesskid3, Gemini, Iecerint, Nachomamma8, Shadow Dancer
LordChronos [1] -

gandalf5166

Not Voting [3] - Gemini,

Chronopie

, ooba

[MagnaofIllusion]

Issues I want to discuss

–

Gemini’s claim to being a lyncher doesn’t hold much water. The terribly bad “I targeted the Treestump” doesn’t make sense coming from a Serial Killer who missed their target after being jailed by Shadow, but also doesn’t make sense as coming from Town. Once we get more of today I think eliminating the likely Serial Killer (based on Shadow’s claim) is the right move.

My gut currently says the remaining Egyptian Mafia reside in LC, Chesskid, and ooba, with a very slight remote possibility of Nacho and SD being the remaining two. Chesskid really is sticking out like a very likely scum in my eyes at this point.

Chesskid’s Night 3 claimed Target was terrible. Blocking the claimed Doctor? Really? Add in the fact that Gandalf’s flip as Town would mean we have the following powers all as Town in this set-up if everyone is not lying

Jailkeeper – Redirector – Role-blocker – Full Doc

Sorry, I don’t buy that at all. Nacho, if he is to be believed, has confirmed that Conspiracy was some sort of Roleblocker. In that case my guess is that Chess isn’t a role-blocker but for some reason (gambit, probably knowing Chess) claimed ConSpiracy’s role. The amount of reliance everyone seems to be putting on his claim is unsettling.

Look at his claimed blocks –

His ‘block’ on LC only came after LC and Gandalf had already established a reason why LC’s claimed Normal failed.

His ‘block’ on AGM is untestable (as ooba didn’t die so we have zero way of knowing it was actually Chess’s action).
I don’t remember who he claimed to block N1 but I’d be very curious who it was. Can someone remind me?

I’ll be putting together my Day 1 VC analysis later today.

--

So as opposed to say someone like Gemini, who can't say "Hey I didnt claim this before - my super is a passive named Volcano that makes sure I cannot be roleblocked" , Magna keeps his options open as scum if he doesn't claim so I will press him for more info during this claim process ..

Knock yourself out. Quite frankly the main reason I’m hesitant to claim is that you have been the driving force attempting to get every bit of information out there. Scum, having full inside information, always benefits more than Town.

Futhermore you’ve been so erratic in your ‘read’ if I’m scum or not (see your end of yesterday “Magna as SK” part that I don’t trust you at all. Your play this game hasn’t inspired a Town read.

P-edit: Wrong wording - didn't really care about who ..

That’s a pretty blatant mis-wording “Do you have any Town reads” versus “Who are you Town reads”. Then again Gandalf managed to butcher his claim so badly I can’t take anything for granted.

--

Should she flip town, against all expactations, though, that is a clear sign that Nacho is lying in some aspect about what his super does and he has to be lynched subsequently, likewise if I turn out night killed or any other (normal) power provably affects me (Iec could try to investigate me, p.e.).

This is exactly along the lines of what I was thinking. I’m disappointed that Iec didn’t test the theory yesterday.

@Magna: Now is the time to give us more claims, because in general I agree with ooba on this, you could at least claim your so called "useless items" because I cannot see how that would give away any worthwhile information to scum. I'd also like a prospect on whether and when we can expect information about your super.

Now, since you as one of my Town reads and are asking I’ll make my claim below.

If ConS was really an RB then chess is not scum (based on the assumption that Nacho is just as treacherous as he claimed - still most of his claims are likely true anyway).

Um, not that’s not a certainty at all. See above.

--

Full claim of actions

–

My Super is Frenzy. It allows me to use Forge twice the following Night. I used it Day 1 immediately after Chronopie announced that they could be used anytime in his ISO 8, as I had not realized that was an option.

Night 1 I chose to Forge ‘Scrap Metal’ and ‘Old Jewelry’ and find out what they did. They returned the following –

Achilles’s Armor (Scrap Metal) – 1 Shot Bodyguard on a player. This is the meh Item I have talked about.

Cursed Necklace (Old Jewelry) – 1 Shot Rolebock.

Night 2, based on my Night 1 results I forged the ‘Shiny Stick’, which I thought had the best chance of being a Kill and sent it to Iec who I considered more or less Confirmed Town.

Night 3 I chose to Forge a ‘Corpse’ and keep it. This was not my first choice. I originally wanted to forge the Bolt again but was informed each item was 1 forge only. I chose the Corpse as it had a higher likelihood, in my opinion, of being an investigation of some kind. I kept it because I wasn’t sure Iec would survive the Night, Nacho had claimed that Shadow was untargettable (and thus I didn’t want to lose an invention) and AGM’s claimed main ability is better than an investigation at this stage, IMO. The end result was Medusa’s Head, a one shot Jailkeep.

So going into Night I have three items to use / distribute.

A Bodyguard, a Roleblock and a Jailkeep.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Lulz.

The Mafia can't kill you because you are Bulletproof? What about just endgaming you?

Yeah, leaving a claimed Serial Killer around isn't a wise idea.

You can take the rope today. This means we halve the number of kills.

Thanks for claiming though ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

- You cannot use items during the day if you keep them for yourself?

If they were Day useable items I could. None of what I have kept have been Day-useable.

- Are you suggesting that forged items overwrite other players' powers/ only one action can be performed at night?

I’ve been told that I cannot use an item and my Normal power in the same Night. I assume this prohibition applies to all players. Thus if I were to give AGM an item he could either use it or use his Normal, not both.

Bodyguard is pretty much your backdoor to dispose of your hated-townie self. Use with caution and only as a last resort! It was definitely right to keep that one.

I agree that I can use it to help Town as number dwindle. I want to remind you that I do not get any ideas (other than what I can speculate myself) about what a Forged item does until either I or whoever I give it to sees the finished product.

--

Ooba’s “Hey look at my scum list” in 2572 is WIFOM at its finest. Good job ooba. “Why would I have done this as scum?”

Well for one you posted that Day 1 and ‘pushed’ for Dekes when Baby and diddin were CLEAR leaders. That’s called potential distancing. And as I recall (I would have to look) I don’t remember you pushing hard for Dekes Day 2 as Lynch 2. Will need to review to see if I am correct.

Secondly calling people Town despite heavy suspicion is White-Knighting for cred at it’s finest. Also a possible scum maneuver.

Do I think you are absolutely scum? No, I think Chess is definitely more likely and perhaps LC as well. But this trumpeting of your “Towniness” when the only vote on you today is from a claimed Serial Killer looks to be out of proportion and suspect, IMO.

My thoughts on Magna after he answers SD's questions.

I greatly await your insight.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Keeping us alive when you can control our night actions (by blocking us; or directing our kill as a vig; or having us neighborize Quadz, a proven goddess; or verifying that Chess is a goddess) wouldn't be the worst thing for town right now. You know who we are, and you know what we do, so we're no longer a threat. Killing us when there is still an unknown number of scum in play will, for one thing, lower that vote threshold, again making MoI's hated townie status a threat.

Anyway, we can't win as of the dawn of this morning anyway (not because we got caught, but last night was sort of a MYLO for us; even if we had killed successfully, the death of Chrono pretty much ended any already veerrrry slim chance we had of getting to an all-female endgame), but we can try to help town win (for Demeter's sake!).

1. Appealing to fear noted (there's an unknown number of evil, evil scum out there!) Based on your claim the likelyhood is there is likely 2 more Mafia scum floating around.
2. Asking to be directed - that's a farce. Either Town wastes a block of some sort making sure you don't betray us (which I have no reason to think you will not do) or we trust you to not try to screw over Town. Neither option is very palatable when we can just hang you, premanently remove your kill, and free up any Town blocks to prevent the lone remaining scum kill.

Its a good attempt Gemini, but in the end futile. Town's don't generally win games by letting outed Serial Killers run free and clear.

[MagnaofIllusion]

AGM claimed doc?

I'd say don't act stupid ... but you know ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also I think I might be able to rule out LC scum.
Or confirm LC scum.

Please elaborate soon!

--

- First off, keeping items to yourself instead of giving them away is sub-optimal. It is like me granting myself abilities with my Hoopla role in MetaMafia. If you use it on yourself, you're limiting the full usefulness of the role ..

I’m making my best judgements about how to use my role. Don’t like it? Sorry. I note you don’t say it is scummy, just suboptimal.

- You've kept the items to yourself on N1 and N3. Why not give yourself the "Shiny Stick" on N2? After all you would KNOW you're town as opposed to Iece who was "more or less confirmed town". If it is about someone surviving the night, the townie who was most definitely surviving any night was you with the hated townie claim.

Sigh. Iec became my Top Town read Day 2. Giving him what I sussed out was as killing ability (which I was right about) was a clear upgrade over his ‘Sanity Unknown’ normal ability.

So you are dinging me for handing off my Invention N2 while simultaneously attacking me for ‘playing suboptimal’ N1 and N3?

And are you questioning my read on Iec? I want to be clear where you are going with this.

Here's something I've spotted - every single time the subject of an LC lynch is approached, you keep bringing chesskid up + you also claim you're suspicious of me ..

I like how you ignore my post where I say the last Egyptians are in Chess,

LC

, and yourself. Nice blinders.

With Gandalf’s flip I’m more than happy to hang LC. Oh wait, that’s not happening today anyway since Gemini is getting the rope. And the Chesskid information needs to be put out there since everyone seems to be ignoring the possibility he is scum.

- Where the hell did that "Mafia hit SK bulletproof" comment come from? N2, the egyptian kill failed. Going by claims, the kill was directed either at SD (who AGM protected) or me (who SD protected).

Combined with the fact that you didn't think Gemini was SK even after SD's counterclaim, I guess your N2 kill was on me and you thought I was the SK ..

The bolded – UM WHAT? Where the fuck are you getting that bullshit I’ll direct you to my post re Gemini again –

Gemini’s claim to being a lyncher doesn’t hold much water. The terribly bad “I targeted the Treestump” doesn’t make sense coming from a Serial Killer who missed their target after being jailed by Shadow, but also doesn’t make sense as coming from Town. Once we get more of today I think eliminating the likely Serial Killer (based on Shadow’s claim) is the right move.

To make this easy for you –

1. I didn’t believe Gemini’s claim of lyncher when I first read it.
2. Their N3 claim didn’t make sense from any perspective.
3. Most importantly KILLING THE SERIAL KILLER BASED ON SHADOW’S CLAIM IS THE BEST MOVE. Inherent in this assumption is that I believe Gemini is the Serial Killer since Shadow blocker her.

As for the rest of your post – are you referring to my phone post BEFORE N3 while on V/LA in regards to the “Mafia kill hit SK”? If so it was something that struck me while doing some phone based reading.

I don’t know what paranoia you are going on about in regards to me thinking you were the Serial Killer.

If a LC egyptian lynch doesn't seal the game, then I'm pretty sure where I am looking for egyptian no.5 .. Also think it is relevant to post my egyptian analysis once again ..(earlier had written you off but the links with LC ping my scumdar)

There is no way in hell that lynching LC as Egyptian would end the game. Town has too much power for the anti-Town factions to consist of 4 Mafia and 1 Serial Killer.

So tell me – do you think we have more than 1 3rd Party floating around?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Nacho

– did I miss where you stated the result of your ‘confirm LC as either Town or Scum” event? Or was that in your “His power sucks as Scum” post?

2) Scum grave robber: My power is broken as hell if I'm the only one with it, so a scum graverobber is pretty likely.

You do understand that ooba has another variant on this power with his super, right?

New plan.
Lynch chesskid, bring Egyptian team down to 1 (or 0). If he flips town, Hera castrates me.
If he flips Egyptian, Gemini shoots Magna, Magna blocks Gemini.
Iec targets me to ease the crazy pain.
I graverob Axel to check out LC.
SD blocks whoever he pleases and confirms them as town.

1. Iec should be targeting Shadow not you.
2. SD blocking someone to confirm them Town only works if Chess flips Egyptian.

--

But Iec's bolt usage (admittedly not during a night though) did not interfere with any of his normal actions. Looks like a sloppy unblance in itme design.

Great. What’s that mean?

You miss the important point - that according to Nacho ConS Isis was really a roleblocker. But you did not bring forth any evidence that chess is not a role blocker and thus used some one elses fake claim!

Um, where exactly is the Evidence that Chesskid is a role-blocker?

When he finally claimed his N1 block it was on a convienantly dead player.
His claimed N2 block came after Gandalf had already given a reason why LC’s ability ‘failed’.
His claimed N3 block was on the more or less assumed Town Doc.

The only things Chess has going for him are

1. He would have had to gambit early to counter Shadow. It’s not unheard of for scum to shameless gambit and if Chess is something like a bomb it would make sense for him to but himself out there.
2. Chronopie wasn’t blocked N1 so the ooba theory that ConSpiracy ‘super-blocked’ him doesn’t work unless ConSpiracy’s super was not as Chess advertised.

--

- If we go by your logic on N1, which is trusting yourself more than others - you should have given yourself the kill.
- If we go by your logic for N2, which is trusting Iece, you should have given the forged Medusa's head to Iece on N3. (Looks like you didn't respond to that part of the post)

You act like the game isn’t a changing thing … that its static and unchanging and developing circumstances.

I had a very good idea that I was giving Iec a killing tool N2. I assumed he would not be using it until N3.

When I couldn't rebolt and moved to a mystery power N3 I weighed the odds that Iec might die. Thus, based on the new information, I kept if for myself.

Honestly I’m getting a little tired of arguing in circles with you about this.

Hell, the fact that you’ve swung from “OBV Multi Scum Groups” to “OBV Single Scum Group” and run the gamut of “MoI can’t be Mafia with his claim” to “MoI must be the Serial Killer” to “Oh, right, MoI isn’t the Serial Killer” makes me wonder why you a so concerned with my read on you as possible scum. I shouldn’t be allowed to have a possible scum read on you based on your inconsistent play and play that I can see as possibly scum driven?

That's not the point - you list LC in the list of Egyptians sure - but your points are made against chess and me. So I ask you - are you fine with lynching LC over Chess (barring other info in between)?

I think Night actions tonight will go a long way to solidifying which of them is the better lynch tomorrow. I’ve not got a solid Chess 1 LC 2 read or vice versa.

Yes. "Mafia kill hit SK" was with regard to N2 - why exactly did you get this idea when he had so many protective roles?

It’s a gut feeling I got. I made that post right before bed while on Vacation so I don’t remember off the top of my head.

My theory (of course, this doesn't fit in with MoI\LC but w\e) is that there was a swapping of fakeclaims .. After all AV claimed after Iece declared his results & scum had daytalk to manage this process ..

Oh, you mean the theory I’ve had re Chesskid for several Days now?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also lynching me disables the doc and whoever I blocked N2 for two nights

LC it was, I think?

Actually given the pretty large scum read people have on LC I don't see this as an inducement to not lynch you for most of the playerbase.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, do you think the town RBer has the exact same flavor as the scum RBer?

Nope. I doubt it very, very much. You don't have to work very hard to sell me on Chesskid as possible scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Gemini

As much as lynching Chesskid / LC is likely to be good outcome for Town the remote chance that it turns out as a mislynch means the 100% chance that lynching Gemini removes the Serial Killer is the best play for Town today.

Gemini’s cute “I’ve got a Double-Vote” argument fails to consider that by leaving her around to Kill we are possibly accelerating the chance of my Hated status being exploited via dead Townies by her Hand.

--

hehe aren't you all going to feel stupid postgame

Don’t think so. What exactly have you done this game to make yourself appear Town? You’ve been active lurking the last two Game Days and threw a fit when it was suggested you be scanned by Gemini (indicating you were not going to turn up Role-blocker as claimed).

--

That is possible, and it would explain CK's bizarre LC fascination, but it is presupposing a lot to discredit an otherwise-confirmed aspect of CK's claim.

What is this otherwise confirmed aspect of Chess’s claim you are talking about?

Chess’s claimed actions can’t be confirmed on any Night.
Chess’s claimed flavor has been counter-claimed by Nacho.

I’m not seeing anything else otherwise confirmed from the slot.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Didn't Nacho's change to Chesskid make that fear moot?

In any case LC has unvoted so Gemini clearly isn out of self-hammering range.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Anyway as for my super being different

dont you think if i were scum
I'd come up with a different name?

Like come the fuck on

1. It isn’t your Super it is your Normal that you’ve ‘oops’ duplicated.
2. I think you are cruising along as disinterested Scum (because your team has been handled) who didn’t even see Nacho claim that Seduction was ConS’s regular.
3. From here you go on to argue that Andrius specifically gave two players the same Normal name. Gah, that’s bad.

Summary

– you look like nailed scum but are lucky that Gemini claimed Serial Killer.

--

You're missing the point in our "cute" argument:

Oh I see the point of your cute argument – I just don’t care.

1. You’ve claimed Serial Killing Non-Town. Fact.
2. Anything you say after that isn’t worth listening to. All your claims are just a means to an end to try to fulfill your Wincon. I don’t buy for a second that you can’t win given you are trying SOOOO hard to not get lynched today with all your bargaining.
3. Eliminating you eliminates a Non-Town Kill.
4. You say “Control me or lynch me if I don’t do what you want”. That sounds great but your goal is to survive long enough to put Town in a position where we can’t freely lynch you like we can today. Town looks to be in very good shape. Eliminating you doesn’t hurt Town in any way.
5. I’ve been playing online Mafia here and elsewhere for 5 plus years. Leaving a CLAIMED scum alive has NEVER, EVER worked out in my direct experience.

So in summary you can craft as many reasonable sounding statements as you want. They don’t matter. You aren’t Town and anyone who thinks you have Town’s best interests at heart is fooling themselves.

Sorry if you feel my attitude is harsh. I just am not in a habit of making move that I know would not be beneficial to Town.

--

oh also, chesskid - FUCK YOU FOR THE ROLEBLOCK

SCUM CLAIMING LEGIT NIGHT ACTIONS?

Are you claiming to know you were blocked last Night AGM?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Are you claiming to know you were blocked last Night AGM?

No, chesskid claimed he blocked me right after I claimed my target.

So you do understand that Nacho has counterclaimed his normal flavor and if he is scum in almost all likelyhood he isn't a Roleblocker, right?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Just dropping this in quickly -

I don't think I'll be agreeing to a plan that has me blocking outside the Chesskid - LC - ooba group no matter how well formed it looks.

I'd really prefer to block Chess or LC.

Back in a bit with more to say.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, why is Iece targetting SD again? IF it's to 'confirm his paranoia' or something, have him target ME, the mod-confirmed Town Demeter.

Iec should be targetting SD to determine if Nacho's claim that his "Super" protected player can't be successfully targetted by anything. If Iec gets a result we know Nacho is lying to some degree.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Anyway, now that I know this information - aren't chesskid or nacho the lynches for today?

Because Gemini claimed Serial Killer who castrates Men openly in thread.

--

Because I love her.

Grrr. Iec this is basically playing against your Wincon (if you are Town) if that’s the reason you don’t want to lynch the claimed Non-Town Serial Killer.

--

@ooba

– Do you suspect AGM of being one of the remaining scum? If the answer is no any plan that ends up with perceived Town players blocking the perceived Town Doctor isn’t a good plan. Town resources should be used to stop potential scum, not block likely Town just to prove a point on one player (Chesskid).

[MagnaofIllusion]

- If chess is scum, chess\AGM is the likely pairing.

I really want to focus in on this pairing you are claiming and focus on AGM’s claim.

Dead / Stumped Town

–

Quadz08 – Demeter, Treestump and Wacky Season Changer
Axelrod – Zeus, (unknown at this point)
Gandalf5166 – Eris, Redirector and Executioner
Chronopie – Hebe, Double Vote Granter
BabySpice – Iris, Hider and Reporter
Snow Bunny – Artemis, (unknown at this point)
Plum – Persephone – Neighbor and unknown (unless I missed Nacho claiming her other powers)
Diddin – Ares – Vig (pretty much confirmed by flavor and N1 kill)

Remaining players and claims

–

Nachomamma8 – Hades, Gravedigger and Modified Super-protector
Shadow Dancer – Poseidon, Jailkeeper and Super Detector
Iecerint – Dionysus – Drunken Role-Cop
ooba – Hermes – QT Enabler and 1 Shot Gravedigger
Gemini – Hera – Serial Killer of Males
AlmasterGM – (Forgot his obscure name), Doc
MagnaofIllusion – Hephaestus – Inventor and Hated Townie
LordChronos – Dead Communer
chesskid3 – Aphrodite – Roleblocker

So we know Town has

Treestump
Redirector
Double Vote Granter
Hider
Vig
3 Unconfirmed. My gut says that of these three only Plum has any chance of having a protective role. Lawgiver doesn’t sound like a Doc.

AGM and Shadow are the only remotely defensive roles claimed left. That means that for AGM to be scum that Town most likely had NO strong defensive roles. In a set-up with no solid Cop roles (Iec’s normal is either Paranoid or Insane) this seems very unlikely.

Furthermore your claimed taking of AV’s normal Protect indicates that scum had a defensive role when he would be facing only a Town Vig and a Serial Killer (if the one scum – Gemini is SK theory is accurate). That makes me highly doubt that Town would not have had a strong protective role.

The only concern I have for AGM is why he isn’t dead so far. If you are Town your claimed protection on him last Night seems to assuage that fear.

At this point I’m not going to be participating Pro-actively in any plan that disables the Doctor based on a “Chess and AGM are the most likely scum Pair” theory which has very little supporting it, IMO.

@Nacho - Can you check you QT with Plum to see if she gave any indication about her powers (or point me to where they were claimed already)? Thanks!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Um, no ... let me gather this some thoughts together ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

HEY THE EXACT SAME POWER
CALLED A ROLEBLOCK

TO A SCUM AND A TOWN

GOSH THAT'S UNTHINKABLE

Here the facts –

1. You are claiming your Normal is flavored Seduce.
2. Nacho is claiming Conspiracy’s normal is Seduce.

I don’t buy FOR ONE FUCKING SECOND that the Mods were so lazy as to recycle flavor for similar powers. Sorry, not happening.

So from a theoretical Chess is Town perspective you should be calling Nacho confirmed scum. Because he would have to be lying for you to be as you have claimed. But you haven’t called him scum once.

Instead you’ve said “I WANT TO LIVE” over and over.

--

First things first – in response to

2736

… why in the hell did you choose LOTR Mafia? There are MANY games you could have chosen yet you chose one that backs your position. In fact, if we are just going to what looks like randomly pick a game to support our theories let’s look at Clash of Kings Mafia

Town –

2 Shot Bulletproof

Vig Enabler (Assassin Role)
Triggered Vengeful Townie and Vengeful Triggerer
Mass Neighborizor

Jailkeeper

Doctor

NameCop
1 Shot Dayvig
Tracker
VT times 7

Versus

BP Serial Killer

Greyjoy NameCop immune Godfather
Greyjoy Watcher
Greyjoy Goon times 2
Lannister NameCop immune Godfather
Lannister Rolebocker
Lannister Goon time 2

In this set-up Town has two full-fledged information roles (Tracker and NameCop) along with a JK, 2 shot Bulletproof and full Doctor. The Mafia forces, while greater in number than here are obviously weaker with half their members being goons.

In then end that parrellel you’ve driven is just like your endless other speculations this game – an exercise to muddy the waters. I’ll also point out the some of your points raised were clearly inaccurate –

VT + One-ring (which makes you lynch immune and night target immune)

Seraph - chooses one person permanently on whom scum-actions will fail in the night

These for example are not correct.

The one Ring bearer was not Night Target immune (he died to the Town Vig) and the Seraph Knight made a single player NK immune as long as the Seraph Night was alive.

Moving on …

So SD, I'll throw back this question to you - If chess is town, what would you say of Nacho's claim then?

If Chess is Town Nacho’s clearly lying scum. But I'm doubting Chess is Town at this stage.

the scum who isnt nacho could still easily kill me

Here’s another one for you ooba – why is the Day 1 Claimed Town roleblocker still alive? No-one’s claimed to protect him AT ALL.

Ok. Been giving more thought about possible scum pairings + going through ISOs + re-reading parts..

Last two Egyptian scum are Nacho and AGM. No doubt about it.

Wow, suddenly in two hours you’ve pieced together this brand new theory Impressive.

Oh, wait

Chess is town
-- However you see it the day one SD counterclaim doesn't make sense especially if he was not the scum roleblocker of his team ..

So how does that plan go? "Chess, you act like a roleblocker when you're actually not. So when Mothrax flips Magic + Womanhood, you'll be confirmed brother! Let's not mention the fact that you can never actually prove your ability if you're called out on it"

-- Chess scum could have *easily* claimed "lure" or "captivate" as his normal

1. Make pure sense if Chess is something like a scum PGO / Bomb / Supersaint. He claims Roleblocker in an attempt to get Town JK Shadow lynched when Shadow was under heavy pressure (before AGar bailed him out with his 'Shadow is confirmed Town' play) because if it comes down to a 1 v 1 he’s taking someone with him whenever he dies.
2. Actually the bolded is exactly what has happened this game. Not a single one of his ‘claimed’ blocks is confirmable. He blocked Plum Day 1 when all he did was rant and rave about LC being obv-scum. That makes no sense. His Day 2 claim came at 1716 after LC claimed his target of SnowBunny at 1697. Day 3 he claimed to block the generally assumed Town Doctor whose target was still alive and thus one of the only abilities that he could target and not be called into a potential 1 v 1 with.
3. Yeah, and lazy Chess scum who wasn’t paying attention could still claim Seduce.

AGar+Nacho play makes zero sense
-- Wincon is to win with town but only if Zeus\Poseidon dead - so why would anyone save Poseidon D1? So how was he *ever* going to fulfill that wincon? Did he know that the vig will magically die on N1 and give him an ability to rob?
-- Why even claim at all? First I thought Nacho didn't care much about the game so he claimed full role. But I guess we're seeing TWO Jack-type claims this game ..

1. Well if he’s Town and wants a better chance at winning letting the Town aligned JK die to a lynch Day 1 isn’t going to help him. As Nacho has claimed … letting scum take care of the thorn in his side makes his claimed Win-con easier. Scum kill his target for him while he works to take out the scum.
2. Um whut? Why claim at all? He replaced into a game where everyone and their brother was calling for his claim at that stage and you ask this question?

Setup:
Doctor role is overpowered (stops next 3 kill attempts on target for the rest of the game? Compare to LOTR please)
Doctor claim was botched (Sorority - thanks Gemini)
Doctor not dead yet (Note to Magna: Scum didn't even try to hit N3 so my protecting him is irrelevant
Grave rob ability used on somebody "Forgotten by The Mortals: (Dead*)" is a fucking sham - I mean DeathNote and Faraday are in that section

1. Two full Town Roleblockers is overpowered, especially with a Town Redirector
2. Chess’s claim has been botched.
3. Chess not dead yet.
4. Actual players in the game in the “Forgotten by the Mortals” category also so your point is rather stupid.

TL – DR Summary

–

Ooba is throwing everything and the kitchen sink to keep Chesskid free to do what he wants. I’m not buying this latest round of speculation.

I WILL NOT be agreeing to any course of Night actions that don’t result in me blocking either Chesskid (which if he is a PGO works out well for Town in taking care of me while blocking Chess) or ooba.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MAYBE HE'S SCUM

Maybe he's scum? ONLY MAYBE? THERE'S NO FUCKING WAY THE MODS FUCKING RECYCLED ROLE FLAVOR. NO FUCKING WAY.

YOU YELLING 'DON'T OUTGUESS THE MOD' IS YOUR ONLY FUCKING WAY NOT TO CALL NACHO CONFIRMED SCUM.

WHICH TOWN CHESS WOULD HAVE TO DO.

I'm so pissed Gemini directly claimed Serial Killer right now.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Quadz, that's what I'm suggesting in the new plan of mine.. Only fucking way town is going to win now ..

Don't bother. Gemini hangs today. There is NO reason to leave the claimed Serial Killer (who actually killed Zeus based on the flavor, lulz) alive. 100% chance of eliminating a NK source is 100%.

And why would hanging someone you feel is Town be the only way Town could win? I don't even ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Shadow I just noticed you have Chronopie giving the Perm double vote to AGar ... it should be Gemini.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I was going to begin by responding to 2773 but thought better of it. Instead I’m going to explain why I think lynching Gemini is better than lynching Chess even if he is Scum.

1. We (ostensibly) have two anti-Town kills out there – one from Gemini the Serial Killer and one from the remaining Mafia.
2. In all likelihood there are at least two Mafia left.
3. Gemini has confirmed her Serial Killer existence 100%.
4. Chesskid has not likewise confirmed that he is Mafia in this manner.

With those 4 factors in mind I move to the next stage. If you disagree with the four above don’t proceed below and simply attack the first four as everything below this line is predicated on their correctness.

A. Lynching Gemini guarantees that we remove one of the two Anti-Town kills.
B. Lynching Chess does not make the same guarantee.
C. We have no proof that Gemini is actually blockable. They have claimed to No Action last Night in an attempt to frame someone else. An Unblockable, Bulletproof Serial Killer would not be completely unheard of in a PR heavy environment.
D. Chess as suspected Mafia can be likely NKed or blocked.

That’s it.

Removing Gemini is 100% good move for Town in eliminating a confirmed Anti-Town force. Even if Chesskid is 99.9% scum the 0.1% chance he isn’t makes his lynch today a suboptimal move.

Remember that Chess has claimed his Super works when he is killed. If he needs to die tonight via Nacho then if he is Town ooba’s desired Block on AGM / LC still happens.

--

@Chess –

1. If you are Town stop self-voting. If you are scum feel free to continue.
2. If you are Town this is your

LAST

chance to come clean about your Super operating as you have claimed. If you’ve lied as protection you had best tell the truth in your next post.

--

He's not playing against his wincon. He's more willing to hear us out than you are but you can't know until the game is over if that is actually a bad thing.

1. If his sole reason for not lynching you is “I love Katy’ then he is playing against his wincon. That’s a stupid reason not to lynch confirmed scum. And that is all he has stated as to why he wants you not to hang.
2. Listening to a third party who has a conficting wincon is NEVER a good thing for Town. You are bargaining and pleading in an attempt to survive in hopes that down the line you can achieve a win. Otherwise you yourself are playing against your wincon.

It is possible that leaving us alive and killing mafia instead would be better ultimately for town –

it's getting fairly close to a LYLO situation if you don't lynch a mafia member today.

1. Unless there is only 1 Mafia left then the first sentence is incorrect. Killing you absolutely removes an Anti-Town kill from the mix.
2. Nice Appeal to Fear in the bolded.

We are a known equation that is controllable and is a sure lynch going forward as correctly lynching becomes more and more critical.

Here’s the part that blows your argument out of the water.

1. We are approaching LYLO if we don’t lynch Mafia today according to you.
2. We have no proof you are controllable. Your word frankly means nothing.
3. If we are approaching LYLO as you claim it makes no sense not to take the 100% guaranteed lynch over one that is not guaranteed. What if Chesskid isn’t scum (unlikely but he’s a bad enough player that it is possible)? Then we’ve forgone lynching 100% in Towns interest and put ourselves in the situation where we could be in Kingmaker if you choose to ‘betray’ us. Not worth the risk.

If you all are so sure that Chess is scum, you should lynch him first and follow the night action plan that Ooba laid out. I don't say this to save my own butt because I truly would rather see town win this game than mafia. You already know my status, so you should follow the plan that most eliminates doubt in the next day phase.

1. I think Chess is scum. I

KNOW

you are since you’ve claimed it.
2. Yes, you are trying to save your own butt.
3. You really want to see yourself win the game and being lynched Today removes all possibility that happens.

In summary

– Had you been outed as Serial Killer Day 2 I might have been more willing to listen to “Hey, use me as a Chained SK”. There would be more time to correct any mistakes if you went rogue. At Day 4 we don’t have that luxury.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also, we're not unblockable. And if you insist SKs are bad for town, go reread LOTR-large theme.

I played in that game. Please don't try to equal a highly specialized SK (who wanted the Ring) with the role you have claimed.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, @SK: Please read the following

I’ve read them. Your point?

My proposed plan (Lynch chess) hinges on the fact that you won't actually follow through on a Nacho lynch if chess survives .. You're so set on chess scum that we're just going to lose ..

So you are purposing to active lynch someone you don’t think is scum as opposed to the Serial Killer you don’t trust? Sorry .. I don't see that as Town thought process this close to possible MYLO / LYLO.

Honestly as long as I can block either Chess, yourself, or LC tonight and Gemini hangs today I’m not objecting to a plan. You keep insisiting on having me block AGM who although he is an active lurking motherfucker isn’t a Scum read for me. I’m not doing that.

@Dead thread: I tried.

Funny thing is both of you are going to blame chess & gandalf for this loss ..

ooba out

Yeah, this is a pretty dick move. I love how you have gotten to pre-supposing what I will or will not do in the game.

--

Magna, what is your idea about night actions right now?

Well with the assumption that Gemini is toast that leave us with

MoI
Nacho
SD
Chesskid
LC
AGM
Iec
Ooba

We are looking at a possible Mafia kill and Nacho kill if he agrees to do so.

If Nacho agrees to kill Chesskid

–

Nacho kills Chesskid
Chess blocks Nacho
MoI roleblocks ooba
Shadow jails LC or AGM
AGM protects whomever
Iec investigates Shadow
LC does whatever.

Nacho killing his scum read of fake-claiming Chesskid is a must if he wants to kill.

It gives you the option to block either LC or AGM depending on your reads. If you do choose AGM to assure that Nacho versus Chess is 1 v 1 it protects him from being killed.

Iec gives us a secondary confirmation that Nacho isn’t lying about his Super (which I have doubts he's been completely forthcoming at this stage).

If Nacho does not agree to kill Chesskid and wants to “Graverob” Axel –

Nacho graverobs Axel
MoI roleblocks Chess
Shadow jails LC, ooba or AGM
AGM and ooba protect whomever
LC does whatever.
Iec investigates Shadow

Under this plan Nacho graverobs Axel and claims all of Axel’s normal abilities. If he doesn’t contradict LC’s currently released 2 we test Axel whether his third claimed ability is correct. (Note explicitly if LC and Nacho are both scum this fails regardless but the odds of a Neighborhood with 2 of 3 members being scum at games start seems pretty low)

Iec still gives us some Nacho confirmation.

Chess is locked down as potential killer.

AGM and ooba would claim their protects before you and myself claim our RB targets.

That’s an outline. Of course like all these plans its not perfect and is subject to the unknown.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also ...

Mod - I've be V/LA from 4pm EST today until Monday AM for my usual weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

oh uhm i may have lied slightly btw

my super is a 1 night block like a beloved princess kinda deal.
not a 2 n ight block

just in case that's relevant to your plans at all

Yeah its fucking relevant.

Explain what you mean by '1 Night block like a Beloved Princess kinda deal'.

A Beloved Princess skips the next Day phase when killed. How is your 'Super' anything like that at all?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also, isn't asking Nacho to use his stolen kill on someone other than SD basically asking him to go against his claimed wincon since SD seems to be solidly considered town and there is no way he's going to be lynched?

He doesn't lose the shot if he kills scum is his claim. If he believes Chesskid is scum shooting him doesn't cost him a thing and isn't playing against his claimed Wincon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

PEOPLE – GET YOUR VOTES ON GEMINI!!!!! DEADLINE IS ONLY 5 DAYS AWAY!

--

Here's the thing. If Iece is accepted as insane (drunken) town cop, then his result on LC should clear LC, because he gets false results for people

But Iec isn’t confirmed as an Insane Cop. He’s accepted as a Cop with unknown Sanity which must be EITHER Insane or Paranoid.

If he’s Insane he’s cleared LC and AGM via his investigations.

If he’s Paranoid his investigation are pretty much useless.

Now if Iec is some variable sanity Cop then none of his investigations mean squat and Charon is a bastard …

--

Now you may say I'm guilty of the same & ignoring the scummy things which chess seems to be doing. Like the "My super block is one-night instead of two" reclaim ..

What about the fact that all three of his claimed Night actions have been untestable and unconfirmable? And that he didn’t target his Number 1 suspect (LC) for Roleblock N1 when in a non-Vanilla environment even if they are not making the kill blocking scum is still a net Town positive (preventing them from using their other powers). You seem to be glossing over these aspects of his play completely in favor of "Why did he counter SD Day 1?".

The crux of my point is you've put Nacho scum in a tough spot..

Good. You’ve yet to explain why that is a bad thing.

1. If Nacho is Town then he does believe 100% that Chess is scum for claiming Seduce which he already saw come from his graverob of ConSpiracy. Thus he isn’t working against his own win-con in shooting Chess because he will have a single shot afterwards to off Shadow.
2. If Nacho is Mafia / 3rd Party so much the better. Putting pressure on non-Town to perform in a manner that isn’t best aligned with their interests is always a good thing.

Which is why I thought a double confirmation plan {lynch chess & prove that Nacho doesn't have a block} is the only way I can get you out of this bias-mode.

At this stage in the game lynching someone you think Town just to prove a point is stupid. Sorry, when there is a claimed Serial Killer waiting for the rope making a plan to hang someone you think is Town, even with the possibility of Roleblocking from dead Chess Town, doesn’t make sense.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Meh I'm really don't think the reveal formatting is relevant.

Realistically what kind of reveal would you expect for Jesus given he's not a part of a Multi-Divinity pantheon (and don't get me started on the Trinity debate here)?

Lord Jesus Christ, the Walker on Water
Lord Jesus Christ, the Bringer of Wine, Loaves, and Fishes

You may be right but I think that it is much more likely that Iec is Insane / Paranoid than Iec is a Sane Cop with some very complex encrypted reveal scheme.

You know what the above posts lack?

Gemini Votes!!!!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Just posted in the Underworld about him, but I'll repeat it here. He's being a stubborn idiot about this. Despite the fact that I've relayed everything he wanted said nearly word for word he won't claim his flavor and last one shot.

I'm at my wits end as to how to get him to claim.

Actually at this stage with his last one-shot being hidden (if you aren't lying scum, BTW) is a good test for Nacho depending on if we feel it is necessary.

[MagnaofIllusion]

That could actually be a point - but Axel would still need to claim it to Chronos...

Yes but let's think this through ...

1. If LC is Town telling the truth then Axel is actively reading the thread. Were Nacho to claim something that was a lie he has no reason not to claim to LC at that point.
2. That Axel still exists in 'Gone but Not Forgotten' means LC's power is absolutely confirmed, IMO. His alignment isn't confirmed but his ability as stated makes ZERO sense from a scum perspective.
3. If LC is scum and making this all all up whatever Nacho claims will be irrelevant anyway as far as confirming his alignement (other than my premise that an initial Neighborhood of Nacho - Plum - LC doesn't make sense with 2 of 3 as scum).

[MagnaofIllusion]

When chesskid dies, there will only be one scum remaining.
It'd be playing against my wincon to allow myself to be tested at that point.

I see what you are saying.

Worst case scenario we hang you if you refuse.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeah

+1 on great role-playing.

Now proceed to become dead as all Serial Killers should.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD - I'll be V/LA from 4pm EST today until Monday for my usual weekend family duties.

--

I should have enough access that when my turn comes in the rotation I can make my action claim timely.

Also, I agree with the following -

chesskid3
- Did you use your action
- If yes, who did you target

Nachomamma8
- Which action did you use?
- Who did you target?
- If you used a kill on chess, did you get confirmation from the mod on whether the kill was used up or not?

AlmasterGM
ooba
LordChronos
Iecerint
MagnaofIllusion
Shadow Dancer

[MagnaofIllusion]

Revisiting my Day 1 Raw Data with the slightly updated Gemini flip information. After the claims process I’ll be doing a Day 1 VC analysis to help direct which way I want to go today.

Green players are confirmed Town. Red players are confirmed Scum. Purple are confirmed Third Party. I’ve replaced all replacement players for all vote-counts for ease of use.

Spoiler: Day 1 Raw Data

Shadow Dancer [4] - MagnaofIllusion, AlmasterGM,

diddin

,

Snow_Bunny

Gemini

[2] -

Axelrod

, Nachomamma8
Iecerint [2] -

gandalf5166

,

ConSpiracy

Nachomamma8 [2] - Iecerint,

Dekes

AlmasterGM [2] - LordChronos, Shadow Dancer

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Baby Spice

[1] -

Chronopie

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

Chronopie

[1] - chesskid3
MagnaofIllusion [1] -

quadz08

Not voting [3] -

Baby Spice

,

Plum

,

Gemini

Shadow Dancer [6] - MagnaofIllusion,

Snow_Bunny

,

Baby Spice

,

Plum

,

gandalf5166

, chesskid3

diddin

[3] - Shadow Dancer,

Dekes

, Nachomamma8

Baby Spice

[1] - LordChronos

Gemini

[1] -

Axelrod

Nachomamma8 [1] - Iecerint

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

Ooba[1] -

ConSpiracy

AurorusVox

[1] -

quadz08

chesskid3 [1] -

diddin

Not voting [3] -

Gemini

, AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

Baby Spice

[4] - LordChronos,

diddin

, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

diddin

[3] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

Shadow Dancer [2] -

Plum

,

gandalf5166

LordChronos [2] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3

Dekes

[1] - Iecerint

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

AurorusVox

[1] -

quadz08

Not voting [5] - MagnaofIllusion,

Gemini

, AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

,

Axelrod

Baby Spice

[7] - LordChronos, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

Gemini

,

diddin

,

Axelrod

diddin

[4] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

, MagnaofIllusion
LordChronos [2] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3

Dekes

[1] - Iecerint

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

Ooba [1] -

quadz08

Axelrod

[1] -

gandalf5166

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

Baby Spice

[6] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

Gemini

,

diddin

,

Axelrod

diddin

[4] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

, MagnaofIllusion
LordChronos [3] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3, Iecerint
Shadow Dancer [2] -

gandalf5166

,

quadz08

Plum

[1] - Ooba

Snow_Bunny

[1] -

AurorusVox

quadz08

[1] - Shadow Dancer

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

diddin

[7] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

, MagnaofIllusion,

Gemini

,

AurorusVox

,

gandalf5166

Baby Spice

[5] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

,

Axelrod

LordChronos [3] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3, Iecerint
Shadow Dancer [1] -

quadz08

Plum

[1] - ooba

quadz08

[1] - Shadow Dancer

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

Baby Spice

[9] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

,

Axelrod

, MagnaofIllusion, Shadow Dancer, ooba, Nachomamma8

diddin

[6] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

,

Gemini

,

AurorusVox

,

gandalf5166

,

Chronopie

LordChronos [2] - chesskid3, Iecerint
Shadow Dancer [1] -

quadz08

MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

Not voting [1] – AlmasterGM

Baby Spice

[8] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

, MagnaofIllusion, Shadow Dancer, Nachomamma8,

quadz08

diddin

[6] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

,

Gemini

,

AurorusVox

,

gandalf5166

,

Chronopie

quadz08

[1] - chesskid3
MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

Not voting [4] - AlmasterGM, Iecerint,

Axelrod

, ooba

Baby Spice

[9] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

, MagnaofIllusion, Shadow Dancer, Nachomamma8,

quadz08

, chesskid3

diddin

[5] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

,

Gemini

,

gandalf5166

,

Chronopie

Dekes

[2] - ooba, Iecerint
MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

Iecerint [1] -

AurorusVox

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Axelrod

diddin

[6] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

,

Gemini

,

Chronopie

, chesskid3, Nachomamma8

Baby Spice

[4] -

Plum

, MagnaofIllusion,

gandalf5166

, ooba
Iecerint [3] -

AurorusVox

,

diddin

,

quadz08

MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

AurorusVox

[1] - Iecerint

Not voting [5] - AlmasterGM,

Axelrod

, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

, LordChronos

Baby Spice

[6] -

Plum

, MagnaofIllusion,

gandalf5166

, ooba,

Baby Spice

, chesskid3

diddin

[5] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

,

Gemini

,

Chronopie

, Nachomamma8
Iecerint [3] -

AurorusVox

,

diddin

,

quadz08

AurorusVox

[1] - Iecerint

Not voting [5] - AlmasterGM,

Axelrod

, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

, LordChronos

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI, why only D1 votecounts?

Day 2 is uselss as we don't have Mod confirmed FOS counts to work with. So once the votes actually started flying in serious manner it was already decided that two scum were going down. Nothing significant to be found there.

Day 3 and Day 4 haven't seen any more Mafia scum deaths. So I may be able to tease some relational information out of them but nothing strong. I'll be looking at them later. Day 1 is the strongest day by far to look for patterns so that is where my initial focus is going to go.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Anyhow ...

@Nacho - Your claim is next so hop to it you slacker.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Let's continue with the action claims before we get any deeper into commentary please.

AlmasterGM
ooba
LordChronos
Iecerint
MagnaofIllusion
Shadow Dancer

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, I'm next in line.

I used my Cursed Necklace (regular Roleblock) on Chesskid as per the plan.

Shadow please finish out the mass-claim please!

[MagnaofIllusion]

I am getting sick of talk of my lynch, though. It should be obvious that I am town, by virtue of being blocked by the scumteam, having a different third party flip, and being Hades, but still my lynch is being pushed and chess and AGM are ignored? AGM, who has only claimed night actions since I've replaced in? You can't honestly even tell me what kind of scum I am... What do you think my real win condition is if it is not what I've claimed...?

I'll have more solid input later but this is SO AtE that I can't even ...

Nacho since replacing in you have done ZERO scum-hunting and just floated along on your 'claim'.

Your claimed Night action last Night was so bad I was tempted to drop a vote on you the minute I saw it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, so there was no scum kill last Night. We have three scenarios where this is possible, assuming everyone is on the up and up –

1. Scum tried to kill me / ooba / AGM’s mystery Super Protect and ran into protection.
2. Scum who submitted the kill was blocked – this would be chesskid or ooba.
3. Scum No-killed to WIFOM it up regarding the plan and who was expected to be blocked.

I’m not going to worry too much about this right now but will be revisiting later on in the day.

I’ll also be running down that Day 1 VC analysis in the next Day or so.

--

Ooba’s “I must be the kill” at

2977

really looks like over-selling to me. Iec, who is pretty much confirmed Town, wouldn’t be a better lynch than you at this stage?

--

Grave-robbing LC last night would have been foolish.

No, it wouldn’t have. It would have been a way to test your and LC’s abilities. LC’s powers really make no sense as a scum power in this game. Had you robbed Axel you might have been able to confirm his alignment via his truthfulness regarding Axel’s claimed normal Powers.

Yet you ‘chose’ to take a claimed action route that did nothing to confirm you in any way.

There is no need for classic scumhunting at this time.

Yeah, sorry but that’s stupid.

But then magna got to talking of next day actions, and pointed out how town could play the "lynch me if I refuse" card if there was only one scum left, and made it pretty clear they would.

Oh, you mean where I talked about Town having the option of lynching you if you were uncooperative. Just like you were last night with your glaringly stupid Night action choice.

You are playing just like a 3rd Party role right now. You aren’t playing to make sure Town wins but to maximize your own chances of winning. That’s the reason why lynching you makes some sense today.

You must know that there is no chance now that I myself am going to agree to any sort of plan that involves lynching Shadow to help you win. In fact your unproven claim of SuperJailkeep on him seems to be working against your ability to win since 'scum' can't NK him. I highly suspect you are holding something back at this stage - such as the possibility that Shadow dies if you do thanks to your power.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VC Analysis – Day 1 Conclusions

Point 1 – the ShadowDancer early wagon.

Shadow Dancer [4] - MagnaofIllusion, AlmasterGM,

diddin

,

Snow_Bunny

Shadow Dancer [6] - MagnaofIllusion,

Snow_Bunny

,

Baby Spice

,

Plum

,

gandalf5166

, chesskid3

Not a single confirmed scum is listed on either of these wagons. The wagon peaked between these vote-counts so I’ve gone back to reconstruct the wagon to its peak.

Shadow Dancer [10] - MagnaofIllusion, AlmasterGM,

diddin

,

Snow_Bunny

, quadz_08,

Baby Spice

,

AurorusVox

,

Plum

,

gandalf5166

, Nachomamma8

The only confirmed scum on this wagon is AV. Someone else is scum on there with him,

I’ll also note that Chesskid jumps onto the wagon after Nacho’s slot had removed his slot to make it L-1 again in this post –

Lynch ho on SD please.

Unvote
Vote: SD
Chronopie is also scum as of his (only) post? so that's why I want it

Scum-pool A : AGM, Nacho, Chesskid

Point 2 – Various vote count posititions once the duelling Baby and did wagons form

Points of emphasis – We know the Baby and diddin wagons were both solid Town so scum was free to spread their votes out and make distancing votes during this time.

Snapshot 1

Baby Spice

[9] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

,

Axelrod

, MagnaofIllusion, Shadow Dancer, ooba, Nachomamma8

diddin

[6] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

,

Gemini

,

AurorusVox

,

gandalf5166

,

Chronopie

LordChronos [2] - chesskid3, Iecerint
Shadow Dancer [1] - quadz08
MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

Not voting [1] – AlmasterGM

We see that AV and Dekes were happily parked on the diddin wagon. Scum clearly aren’t afraid to double up. The large Baby Spice wagon only has one confirmed scum (Cons) on it. Another scum is there.

Scum Pool B: LC, ooba, Nacho

Snapshot 2

diddin

[7] -

Dekes

, Nachomamma8,

Snow_Bunny

, MagnaofIllusion,

Gemini

,

AurorusVox

,

gandalf5166

Baby Spice

[5] - LordChronos,

ConSpiracy

,

Plum

,

diddin

,

Axelrod

LordChronos [3] -

Baby Spice

, chesskid3, Iecerint
Shadow Dancer [1] - quadz08

Plum

[1] - ooba
quadz08 [1] - Shadow Dancer

Not voting [2] - AlmasterGM,

Chronopie

Here we have Dekes and AV both on the diddin wagon. The only unknown (to me) player on the diddin wagon is Nacho. It is more unlikely that Nacho is scum with them based on how well the votes are spread out.

Less likely to be Scum Pool A: Nachomamma

Snapshot 3 / 4

diddin

[6] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

,

Gemini

,

Chronopie

, chesskid3, Nachomamma8

Baby Spice

[4] -

Plum

, MagnaofIllusion,

gandalf5166

, ooba
Iecerint [3] -

AurorusVox

,

diddin

, quadz08
MagnaofIllusion [1] -

Baby Spice

AurorusVox

[1] - Iecerint

Not voting [5] - AlmasterGM,

Axelrod

, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

, LordChronos

Baby Spice

[6] -

Plum

, MagnaofIllusion,

gandalf5166

, ooba,

Baby Spice

, chesskid3

diddin

[5] -

Dekes

,

Snow_Bunny

,

Gemini

,

Chronopie

, Nachomamma8
Iecerint [3] -

AurorusVox

,

diddin

, quadz08

AurorusVox

[1] - Iecerint

Not voting [5] - AlmasterGM,

Axelrod

, Shadow Dancer,

ConSpiracy

, LordChronos

I find it impossibly unlikely that the ending Baby wagon was completely devoid of scum.

Scum Pool C: ooba, Chesskid

Conclusions –

Based on the following results

Scum-pool A : AGM, Nacho, Chesskid
Scum Pool B: LC, ooba, Nacho
Scum Pool C: ooba, Chesskid
Less likely to be Scum Pool A: Nachomamma

Scum Pool A is my strongest read. Very unlikely that AV was the only scum on the wagon. Scum Pool C comes in a close second.

Based on that I’m back to Chesskid as my top candidate based solely on Vote Count analysis.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Nacho

– Why aren’t you voting for Chess even though you keep saying he is confirmed scum.

--

nacho?
probscum if it's the general consenus that me and the scum rber couldnt have had the same ability name

This personifies why Chess is either a VI or scum. Absolutely nails it.

Nacho has directly claimed you are scum for a duplicated Ability name. Your “it’s all MOD WIFOM” argument is stupid. Either he’s lying about the name of the ability he claimed to get from ConSpiracy and trying to frame you or you are lying scum.

It’s a clear picture. Yet you don’t even bother to recognize that if you are Town Nacho has to be scum.

--

@Magna: Kinda meh :\ I don't know. I don't like this kind of vote analysis - and quadz is confirmed town, too. Who do you think is chess' partner? If it's not Nacho it should be ooba (chess, Nacho and ooba are the players that appear twice in your suspect groups) [or yourself, who you obviously ignore in your considerations ] Do you think ooba scum as chess' partner would have defended his partner as vigorously as he did on D4?

1. Yes, quadz is confirmed Town. The Copy/Paste process where I add color missed him. Note that all my analysis was made considering him such.
2. The fact that all three of them appeaer multiple times in the analysis doesn’t point to them as partners. That analysis was simply looking for my single Top Suspect.
3. Yes, I can see ooba-Partner to Chess defending him like that. It’s a WIFOM argument to say that ‘scum would never do that’. On the flip side I can see Town ooba defending Town or Scum Chess in the same manner. It’s not a strong tell either way.

--

What I Know (are can reasonably Conclude)

–

1. Regarding Iec’s Normal Ability

–

Iec’s ability clearly has some element of altered sanity to it. Here, according to Shadow’s handy, dandy list are the investigations he as made.

AlmasterGM – “Jesus Christ, God of the Christians”
Chronopie – “Shiva, the Destroyer”
Lord Chronos – “Quetzalcoatl, the Creator”
Chesskid – “Thor, God of Thunder”

If Shadow’s list is accurate then we have three situations.

1. Iec’s scans provide a roadmap by the manner in which they read to the alignment of the scanned (ooba’s theory). If this is the case Chrono and LC share alignment and AGM and Chesskid share alignment. And we know Chronopie is Town. Thus AGM and Chess would have to be scum.

From a game set-up standard I don’t think it that a Chesskid / AGM pairing is likely at all. That would require Town’s sole Protective / Blocking role to be Shadow the Jailkeeper and would establish that the Mafia themselves had both a Protective role (AV) and a blocking role (ConSpiracy).

2. If Iec is Insane then these scans indicate that the two accepted remaining scum can be found in Nacho – Ooba – Shadow, those who have not been scanned.

3. If Iec is Paranoid then his scans are completely useless as scum-hunting tools and should be ignored. That would also mean Charon are rat bastards.

If you believe number 1 to be the case lynching Chesskid is the way to go. It would confirm the theory. If you believe number 2 to be the case you lynch Nacho and have Iec scan ooba. If you believe 3 you hunt scum normally and ignore Iec’s results.

2. Who I think are Sure Town

Iec – He actively went out of his way to use his super to incriminate AV Day 2. Shadow confirmed that Iec actually used his super. Day 3 he actively used the Invention I gave him to kill another scum, Dekes. He could have easily lied about the nature of the invention to me or claimed not to have gotten it. I can’t see scum actively going out of the way to bus two of their partners so strongly early on when Town had a HORRIBLE Night 1.

Shadow – Shadow as scum would require lying Nacho scum also. There is no other possible pairing based on his claim and AGar’s backing of it. It makes little sense Nacho and Shadow scum to have not gotten off a successful kill N4. That would require the target be me or Iec. I am one of the strongest proponents of ‘Chesskid is scum’ around and Iec was the Obv target of the 3 shot AGM Superprotect, which is real if AGM isn’t scum. Also, the information dump from Shadow regarding N1 – D2 super useage hasn’t been refuted in any element. Scum doesn’t gain any advantage by disclosing the information unbidden as Shadow did. Likewise Nacho’s use of his super on Shadow makes little sense for partners even if it makes the target unlynchable while Nacho is alive.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The way I see it today’s lynch is going to be either Nacho or Chess. No other lynch makes sense since Nacho has effectively placed them in a 1 v 1.

Here’s what I see as the outcome from each lynch if we lynch Town incorrectly today

–

Nacho:

If Nacho is Town it confirms Chesskid as scum to be lynched Day 6 and blocked Night 5.
If Nacho is Town it 100% confirms Shadow as Town.

Chesskid:

If Chess is Town he roleblocks the following players at Night via his death (as he has claimed) – LC, AlmasterGM and myself.
If Chesskid is Town it confirms Nacho as scum to be lynched Day 6 and blocked Night 5 (if possible).
If Chesskid is Town it greatly enhances the chances that AGM or Shadow is scum with Nacho due to the unlikelyhood that Town has the combination of Doctor / Jailkeeper / Roleblocker / Redirector in the setup.

These are all elements of secondary consideration to Day and Night play analysis.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Is there a reason Chrono's (I think it was Chrono...) hasn't been re-sorted to the appropriate category...?

Charon hasn't posted in thread since opening the Day. Since Andy still is ostensibly V/LA (it is not July yet) Dana may be flying solo and too busy putting together Brightest Day Mafia to check the account.

If the change isn't corrected by next time Charon post LC has some explaining to do.

Otherwise I'm taking it as null for now.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey here's a quick WTF moment -

Why is Gandalf in the 'Forgotten' category as well?

Does anyone remember where he was yesterday?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Triple posting like a Boss -

@MOD - Please confirm in thread when you see this whether the placement of Chronopie and Gandalf in the "Forgotten by Mortals" category was a mistake.