New York 134: Planet of Hats (Scum Win!)

[Palisade]

I dislike the speed with which the DK wagon has developed, though I happen to know that many of it's key proponents have good reasons for desiring a PL. I wouldn't mind being rid of him, but would prefer scumhunting to rule D1 and for both DK and Jilynne to have the opportunity to prove themselves less useless than they have in the past.

I will confer with my other head before placing a vote.

-The RedHead

[Palisade]

Reck, both of our heads have amicably played with you before. We'd just like to retain anonymity for now, for the novelty of it. In all likelihood, one or both of us will out ourselves, as you yourself did recently on an alt, before the end of the game.

-The RedHead

[Palisade]

Hey, Redhead, Let's not Mill this over too much: if we wait too long, this game won't be finished in a drop of a

hat

.

VOTE: Parabullocks. Obv-scum.

[Palisade]

~Almond-hair. (Sorry, forgot to sign.)

[Palisade]

I'm Almond-Hair. Almond for short.

~Almond-Hair.

[Palisade]

It is my belief that Swag is scum along with Parabullocks.

~Almond-Hair.

[Palisade]

I don't support a Deity lynch. Policy-lynches give no information at all. Policy VIGS, on the other hand...

~Almond.

[Palisade]

Unvote, Vote: Swag

.

[Palisade]

I fail to see how it isn't obvious.

[Palisade]

@glowball & sanchocolates:

I'll be honest, I've never played with DK, but people don't seem to like him too much. I jumped on a bandwagon. If it really bothers you I'll unvote.

What part of our reaction to this, coupled with the suspicion we'd already expressed, was not clear? My partner, in particular, insists this is tantamount to an outright scum claim. I'm more willing to see newbishness in it, but definitely think it warrants our vote for now.

Reck and Thor also voted for Swag following the above quote...why no questioning of them?

-RedHead

[Palisade]

I'm here.

I'm not especially good at shaking things up (that's a forte of my partner,) but I am pretty good at observing. When I mix it up too much I tend to get tunnel vision and lose perspective. So I've been watching and listening.

Swag lynch is good, DK policy vig or perhaps D2 lynch is worth considering. Parabollocks continues to be subtle scum, Reck is in his Town meta. Thor is as hard to read as ever. Peregrine always seems scummy to me, but no more than usual right now. KoC I scummier than normal, especially the "I don't want to contribute unless there's a threat to me" stance (protip: Town is always under threat. Scum isn't.) Jily is textbook VI, and therefore unreadable.

Those are the ones that stick out to me. Haven't seen my partner at all in a couple days.

-RedHead

[Palisade]

Really you should just sheep me more

Swag136 (9): xRECKONERx,

Thor665,

Palisade

~Almond-Hair.

[Palisade]

I am the Queen of England.

You going to vote me now too, chkballin? Thor is obvTown and obvjoking.

On a serious note, both my partner and I are experiencing some access issues. Expected in his case, not so in mine. If they don't rectify themselves in due course we will seek to replace out. I'll post my updated reads and comments soon, some time when it is not half past midnight. Tomorrow evening perhaps.

-RedHead

[Palisade]

On a serious note, both my partner and I are experiencing some access issues. Expected in his case, not so in mine.

If they don't rectify themselves in due course we will seek to replace out.

-RedHead

Hey! It shouldn't be

that

bad... >.<

[Palisade]

Glowball wagon is quite obviously scumdriven.
Too many bandwagon dissolution on day 1 for it to not be excessively suspect.
Swag is scum, Glowball is def town.

I get the same feeling. Probably not the first 1-2 people on glowball, but there's probably scum in where the wagon picked up steam.

Swag remains caught scum. It's probably why he flaked on us. Caught in the first couple of pages + newbie.

Apologies to his replacement, that's a tough slot to fill.

-Red

[Palisade]

Hey, Thor. Reck. You down for a Krypt lynch?

[Palisade]

How about Celebloki?

[Palisade]

My opinion on Ballin is overall null. One moment, I think "town", next moment, I think "scum". As for Swag...refer to our vote.

~Almond-hair.

[Palisade]

...Yeah...
There's a reason you two are the lead candidates right now.
Can we go PBuG (Swag's replacement)?

[Palisade]

Unvote, Vote: Krypt

.

[Palisade]

Now, how about you answer my question - "whooooah, what's up with this CrAzY speed wagon of craaaaaaaaaaaziness!!!1! ....Vote: Speedwagon"

I wanted to know your reasoning, or if you had any.

Ballin has a vote that he needs to explain. Especially when he left it there even after it was made clear you were joking. The best way to get people to pay attention and start answering questions is to vote them. It was also to see if there were any more scumslips or hilarious antics under pressure.

I think it's the best place for my vote to hang out until Swag's replacement says something else but "lol swag was so scummy".

Hey, Thor. Reck. You down for a Krypt lynch?

[Palisade]

Reck, at this point it would probable behoove all of us to simply ignore anything that DK posts. He's going to get vig'd tonight. There's no other vig option that even remotely compares. So why not just ignore his punk ass?

Also, I'd like to hear your reasoning for the "Godhammer" comment following our vote on kryptinen.

-The RedHead

[Palisade]

We apologize for our continued dearth of activity. Both of us are having limited access troubles, though mine are drawing to a close.

PBuG continues to compound the scumminess of his precessor. Swag's slip is no less valid now than then. I get the sense that Reck and Krew is not Town vs Town. My partner has strong conviction on that pairing, but I am less certain. We will vote for who we both agree is scum.

Vote: PBuG

-RedHead

[Palisade]

@ Reck Krypt flipped town, are you still aiming for Palisade?

Oh shit I totally forgot about that connection, fuck yes I am, dead scum is dead

Vote: Palisade

Would also lynch SleepyKrew or KoC.

You mind actually explaining this vote? Considering you never explained your "Godhammer" fervor D1, then completely forgot about it until reminded, your conviction looks feigned.

[Palisade]

Redhead, I leave you in charge for a few days, and you're already getting us lynched. Remind me to never be on Limited Access again.

~Almond-hair.

[Palisade]

I'm rereading the thread. But right now, I'm confident that Celebloki, Ballin, and one to two of {PBuG, KoC, Parabol} (with one more name between {sancho, JDGA, Mist, Zihark, *numbers*, Taro} being scum if only one) is our scumteam. Gimme a sec to figure out which of them it is. (The result is the difference between me sheeping Thor and me demanding people sheep Me. )

[Palisade]

For starters, I've concluded that it's not PBuG.

Unvote, Vote: ChkBallin

.
And I'm looking quite heavily at Sancho as the fourth.

[Palisade]

Nice defense.

What defense could we give? We haven't been actually accused of anything. The only thing that's been leveled against us (at all) is Krypt Town = GODHAMMER.

Almond, you explained the Krypt case in some detail to me after you initially suggested it on D1, but I lost the AIM log. Can you explain it to them?

-Red

[Palisade]

Know what? I'll sheep Thor.

Unvote, Vote: KoC

.

Yar. Looking back I think I'm going to;

Vote: Knight of Cydonia

Also, protip - when you're miller you claim miller Day 1. There is so much gak we wouldn't have even had to do if DK had been sitting behind a miller claim like he should have.

What's your reason to voting him?

The scumteam has revealed itself!

Thanks, Sancho. You've made this a walk in the park for us. Celebloki, Ballin, Sancho, KoC. They die. Today.

[Palisade]

Yes.

[Palisade]

Yeah, DK, GTFO.
VOTE: DeityKabuto

I'll be honest, I've never played with DK, but people don't seem to like him too much. I jumped on a bandwagon. If it really bothers you I'll unvote.

^This is all the reason we need to suspect you. Your predecessor made an enormous scumslip, and the fact that you completely dismiss it without acknowledgment compounds it.

Also, I'm not sure why Almond is resisting explanation of our reads, but here's his reasoning on ChkBallin:

Why was Tomie killed?
Tomie was pretty much a nobody, a weak town force not seen.

In other words, if Tomie was killed, the scum were either PR hunting or legitimately afraid of Tomie's reads.

I'm betting on the latter.

Tomie saw Ballin as scum. Tomie was also onto the trail of KoC, possibly Parabol. And definitely Sancho.

[Palisade]

As of what Redhead posted, That's

part

of it, but not the whole story.

KoC: Day two play makes him self-evident as scum. Plus, interactions with the other three scum fit perfectly.
PBuG as Town, not scum (Redhead doesn't know what he's talking about >.<)--his KoC suspicion post, among others. His post right above was town, too.

[Palisade]

THOR, YOU'RE BETTER THAN THIS. ;P (Eighteen)

Defense of KoC.
Defense of KoC.
Scummy response.
Deflects.

Cases are not my strongsuit. But I could go on all day about this.

[Palisade]

My suspects are not entirely Tomie's. Tomie was used to augment reads I had already began to develop.

[Palisade]

But others have done plenty about him.

Interactions are a wonderful thing, eh?

[Palisade]

Can everyone just list the 2 people they think are the scummiest?

How 'bout four instead? That's two better!

Celebloki, Sancho, chkBallin, and KoC.

[Palisade]

You are correct, Reck.
At least one of the names on there is scum.

All of 'em, in fact.

[Palisade]

BV, pay moar attention.

The PBuG wagon is yesterday's news. It's old stuff. It died a long time ago, and will never be starting up again.

Ever.

PBuG has proved himself to be town. He will NOT be wagoned this game, ever again.

The other wagon besides us isn't PBuG. It's KoC.

[Palisade]

BV, pay moar attention.

The PBuG wagon is yesterday's news. It's old stuff. It died a long time ago, and will never be starting up again.

Ever.

PBuG has proved himself to be town. He will NOT be wagoned this game, ever again.

The other wagon besides us isn't PBuG. It's KoC.

OK, why has he proven himself town?

I want an answer to this too. I don't see it, and you aren't communicating in our QT. Stop posting reads without explaining them or at least discussing them with me, asshat.

@Celebloki: It is indeed that we aren't talking. Almond is apparently reading a different game than I am, though I'm starting to agree with him about you, even sans discussion.

[Palisade]

Or, I just have a strong town-read (reads change. Mine did on day two) and am frustrated (screaming at him--I know what I'm doing!) that my partner is holding onto a dead read. (That's

my

territory, Redhead! >.<) And am determined to make sure that lynch doesn't go through. That's just what I do.

[Palisade]

Mod: We're voting for KoC

.

And what gave you this strong town read?

Semi-explained in-thread, semi-explained in-QT. Reasoning is not my strongsuit. I'd rather not waste my time explaining the read when I am NOT very good at elaborating on my reads. They're there. They just are.

My partner might do a better job of explaining my town-read than I do, ironically enough. I'm about to do something else, so I can't spend my time trying.

That something being (now with my partner's permission) a Wall explaining why KoC, Celebloki, Sancho, and chkBallin are our scumteam. It probably won't take me more than 48 hours of work, though it depends on how much I slack off.

[Palisade]

Spoiler: This Is A Distraction

It's not that I can't make cases. I can. And am in the process of doing so.
I just suck at it. I much prefer

and is essentially telling us to "deal with it".

^Doing that. It works better for me as a playstyle than writing cases, since I'm that bad at cases. (Since people are unaware of who I am and I promised my partner not to out myself, though, the "deal with it; that's just who I am" approach doesn't work that well. >.<)

But, hey. I do have a partner, to help me improve. (Just 'cause I'm more experienced than him doesn't mean I can't learn a thing or two from him.)

The best way I have to describe it is as this:
I can give reasons; my reasons for my suspects are Interactions, Tone, Motive, a little VCA, and--most vitally--Process Of Elimination.
I have trouble elaborating on (almost) all of those. "This interaction is why they're scum."
"But WHY is that interaction why they're scum?"
"...it...just is?"

Since I am bad at explaining that, my cases are generally not that strong.
That doesn't mean I can't build a case. Just that it's historically not gone very well for me.

If you don't mind, I have made significant progress on my case. But this slows me down. It'll get done faster if I ignore the thread.

[Palisade]

I'll give you a hint.

Palisade (5.5): SleepKrew, Celebloki,

sanchocolates

, Taro,

chkballin

(

KoC

)

Underlined-->Honorary Member(s). (Count as half a vote--too lazy to track down all of them.) Italicized-->added since last votecount.

[Palisade]

Whoops. Forgot to bold Celebloki.

I'll give you a hint.

Palisade (5.5): SleepKrew,

Celebloki, sanchocolates

, Taro,

chkballin

(

KoC

)

Underlined-->Honorary Member(s). (Count as half a vote--too lazy to track down all of them.) Italicized-->added since last votecount.

Fix'd.

[Palisade]

Yes.

[Palisade]

Oh, right.

I missed Beaver's vote on us. It's actually 6 right now. (Reck got off, two got on.)

[Palisade]

Considering I know there's AT LEAST one more vote interested in lynching us (KoC)--probably more--you guys just earned yourself a claim.

We Are The Vigilante.

We shot Krypt last night, duh. (Who else would have?) This is an extremely scum-driven wagon, because Redhead Vig-Slipped when he posted that note from our QT (the one mentioning Tomie being the scum kill).

[Palisade]

Also, I'm not sure why Almond is resisting explanation of our reads, but here's his reasoning on ChkBallin:

Why was Tomie killed?

Tomie was pretty much a nobody, a weak town force not seen.

In other words, if Tomie was killed, the scum were either PR hunting or legitimately afraid of Tomie's reads.

I'm betting on the latter.

Tomie saw Ballin as scum. Tomie was also onto the trail of KoC, possibly Parabol. And definitely Sancho.

^This was Redhead's Vig-Slip. I gave him quite the chewing out in our QT for this, since the town didn't KNOW for sure that Tomie was the scum kill. We (having killed krypt) did.

[Palisade]

In other words, the scum figured out that we were the vig, and wanted us lynched.

I'll continue building that case, thank you very much, in the mean time, to help prove this and show you how I'm right about the scum.

[Palisade]

We were confident in the Krypt kill, and had been discussing it for N2 after DK. DK got modkilled and that kind of locked us into the next one on the list. For what it's worth, I noticed KoC's vig softclaim on D1, and we discussed it, which put him on our scum list. But it was fairly soft, and we were more into a Krypt kill. But the softclaim combined with his behavior today...he's gotta go.

More later, I've been unexpectedly busy of late.

-Red

[Palisade]

We'll be shooting the guy who softclaimed our role on D1, thanks. But Chkballin was already on our short list.

[Palisade]

Fascinating, KoC.

Why did you softclaim a role that you didn't possess?

Also, primo scum motivation for doing so: You have a Mafia Roleblocker or Mafia Doc, and softclaiming draws out the real counterpart, who you promptly kill. Congratulations on successfully implementing this tactic.

[Palisade]

Hai, DGB!
Nice to see you!

But man, that's a weird typo of KoC you got in there!

[Palisade]

Our apologies. We've both been busy with a combination of other games and Marathons. (With a touch of real-life V/LA-ness.)

We're planning on shooting Sancho tonight. (Actually, we were planning on Celebloki, but some people have a town-read on Celebloki for some reason. That leaves chkballin and Sancho as our secondary choices.)


Also, to clarify the timeline of actions:
My partner said there was a softclaim Day One, but I asked "What Softclaim?" and got no answer. We DID discuss it a little, but the post it was in was never mentioned. Then we got hit by mutual V/LA, which kinda killed the momentum.

When I returned, the Krypt suspicion had began, and it distracted me, to the point where I had completely forgotten about the KoC vig softclaim. We both were quite certain of Krypt being scum, confident enough to kill him after DK. When DK got modkilled, he became our # 1 choice.

The claim wasn't mentioned again until Day Two, by my partner. I once more had to ask, "what softclaim?" (actually, "I don't see a softclaim", but close enough), since I couldn't see it.

I later figured it out myself when looking at KoC in ISO, never having gotten my partner to answer. >.<

So, KoC was not in my mind at the time of the kill.

Essentially, KoC was a suspect, in the backburner of our minds, but not actively being discussed until Day Two.

[Palisade]

As for PBuG: it wasn't a single post by PBuG which convinced me. It was a combination of many, overall painting the picture that PBuG is town. PBuG lacked condemning interactions with all four of our other suspects (KoC, Sancho, Celebloki, chkballin), and in fact has multiple interactions which are favorable.

Interactions with others, overall Motive, paints the picture of being town.

[Palisade]

jilynne1991

(0)

:

SleepyKrew

,

Parabollocks

,

JDGA

,

Celebloki

Which of these players are opportunistic, wanting-PGO dead scumbags?

Celebloki.
Sleepy's town, as you said, and Para's town if KoC is scum.

[Palisade]

11.

kryptinen

,

Town Cop

, Killed Night 1

kryptinen

,

Town Cop

, Killed Night 1

Care to try a different fakeclaim?

Or will you just be belatedly modifying it to Deputy?

[Palisade]

Unvote
Vote: Nobody Special

It just occurred to me; the most likely scum to claim cop is a Mafia Rolecop, or something similar. I'd rather prevent his team from getting his results, if possible. We can always vig our counter-claimant (KoC), instead of lynching him.

[Palisade]

Wraith said he quickly googled hats. I believe the NS claim and not just because it clears me. I still think chkballin is the best lynch. Palisade should shoot parabollocks. Votes stating on chkballin.

This reminded me of something I've been meaning to say for a while.

We do not intend to be manipulated.

We will accept advice, opinions, and recommendations. But we

do not trust

ANY

of you.

We will be making OUR OWN decisions on who to vig, and discussing it amongst ourselves. We will collect, analyze, and distill the evidence against the vig candidates and choose who we think most likely to be scum. We will always, however, provide an explanation of those choices after the fact, and (not speaking for my partner here) I am willing to share who I am currently leaning towards.

Tonight we will be vigging KoC, unless he is lynched. If KoC is lynched, we'll have a tougher choice, but I am personally leaning towards Parabollocks, chkballin and NS on the outside.

Regarding NS, the point has been made that the claim is too ridiculous to be fake...but he KNOWS it won't be cc'd, he was under no pressure to do so, his claimed innocent wasn't actually heading for the gallows in any kind of hurry, and the WIFOM of claiming cop with one already dead is perfect.

Should have claimed Deputy, the kind that receives the original Cop's results when activated. I'd have believed that.

-RedHead

[Palisade]

[Palisade]

Also,

Unvote: Nobody Special
Vote: KoC

Forgot that I hadn't switched back yet. I still think NS's Cop claim is bogus and suspect, but bvoigt's 953, DGB's 958, and especially PBuG's 970 convinced me to let it go for now.

[Palisade]

First off, my apologies. I was V/LA again, and informed Redhead that he could post while I was away.

I realize now that leaving him unrestrained was quite the mistake.

You see, Redhead's a bit...inexperienced. His joindate is 2011. He doesn't really understand how to play the game, and makes a lot of false assumptions about matters that I have to correct him on later. With my absence, I was unable to do so.

For instance, Redhead had an early Reck suspicion. You can actually observe this in-thread, if you look through our ISOs. Suspicion from Redhead on Reck which is noticeably absent from me, Almond-Hair. The main reason?

"Reck seems too aggressive to my gut."

After a moment facepalming, I had to explain to him why Reck wasn't scum and essentially knock some sense into him.

Later-on, he pulled this same move on Thor, thinking Thor looked like scum based on gut.

A double facepalm was not enough to convey my feelings. I simply told him, "No. Just no."

This is his first time as a Vig. He doesn't know how the role works, unaccustomed to the site meta of how a vigilante operates. He makes mistakes, assumptions which are false. He assumed two cops in a game is impossible. (I have personally witnessed it. Albeit before cop sanity was guaranteed. Improbable, sure.) He assumed he had the authority to say "we", when I was absent.

I did not have any input on his assessment of "we do not intend to be manipulated"; that was all him. (Speaking of which, I'm making it quite clear in our QT that Redhead's power of the word "we" has been vetoed.)


I, however, have been here for years. I know how the game works, and have actually been a vigilante before. I am aware of how they work. I know how to play the game very well, and am essentially stuck on cleanup duty for Redhead's mess, because he doesn't understand how things work.


Technically, it's true--we don't intend to be manipulated. That sentence does not carry the weight Redhead implies, though. Advice, opinions, and recommendations are good--and, in fact, help get me reads on players based on their answers. (A fact Redhead seemed to be unaware of when he made that declaration.)

But I DO trust a significant number of players in this playerlist, those who I have been defending as town. I do not necessarily think they're right, but I certainly listen to them and think they're town. Redhead's "We" there was quite false.

I've seen Redhead play, and I know he's quite paranoid as town.

I, however, am quite the opposite. I trust a lot of people. We did decide amongst ourselves who to vig (We shot Khan, due to a scumread we had on Khan's predecessor, Sancho), but it wasn't without taking into consideration the reads of others.


My suspects going into the night were chkballin, sancho/Khan, and one of {PBuG, Parabol} (but not both). Sancho/Khan was determined to be our best shot. NS was out of the question, since I had the experience to know the claim was not in fact the BS Redhead had thought it to be. (This is not the first time Redhead has misinterpreted a claim as being scummy when it essentially confirmed someone as town.)


I really am sorry that Redhead was allowed free reign for a while. Honestly, you'd think this was a teaching hydra with how frequently I have to come in and rescue him.


Khan was supposed to flip scum, so I'll be re-reading and analyzing things right now.

~Almond-Hair.

[Palisade]

-If NS is lying scum:
The scumteam is {JDGA, NS, Celebloki, one of PBuG/Parabol, chkballin?}

-If NS is SOMEHOW truthful:
The scumteam is {JDGA, one of PBuG/Parabol, chkballin, and two mysterious others}.

...Yeah......

Vote: NS

.

[Palisade]

Fail.

All cops in a normal game are required to be Sane.

And if I'm not mistaken, most mods make it quite explicit in the PMS that they ARE Sane, and NS just said he could be insane.

Additionally, if he wasn't Sane, then that'd make Celebloki scum, something he fails to address.

And furthermore, he knows SleepyKrew will flip town, and that he needs an excuse for it.

Confirm

VOTE: Nobody Special.

[Palisade]

Let's run through the list of scumtells, shall we?

I have received a Guilty result on SleepyKrew.

Convenient, that NS has a guilty when Reck says anything other than a Guilty will result in an NS lynch.

Additionally, why investigate SleepyKrew, rather than, oh, say, Khan? chkballin?

Lynch me, and you lose a cop. Set your personal feelings for me aside, please, and work with my role. Deal?

Appeal to Emotion.

Lynch Sleepy, and if he does somehow flip town, you know I'm insane

Attempting to justify a flip NS KNOWS will be town, Non-Sane cops are Banned from Normals by the Normal RuleSet.

feel free to kill me overnight, if you must

Makes me lean towards NK-immune Godfather as his role. We lynch Sleepy, we try to kill NS, the kill fails, we have to waste a second lynch on NS.

but then realize that Celebloki is Not Innocent. (I am unclear whether an insane Innocent would equal scum or 3rd party; I don't have a lot of experience as a Cop, sorry.)

Tries to leave a scenario where Celebloki wouldn't be scum. (At least, not Mafia.) Additionally, this is awfully convenient to say "Celebloki could be SK..." immediately after Reck says it, no?

*insert image of "there are no words for that fail" here*

[Palisade]

{KoC, DGB, Reck, JDGA, Sleepy, bvoigt}
KoC, lynched.
DGB, possible-red-herring, possible-real-investigation.
BV, same thing.
Reck, HIS VOTE YESTERDAY.

WHY NOT RECK?!? Or, heck, Why not JDGA? Why Sleepy? It makes no sense.

[Palisade]

chkballin is scum. Why else wouldn't NS put chk in the list of possible investigations, despite not being thrilled with him?

A VOTE FOR RECK!

VOTE STAYED UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY!

WHY WASN'T RECK INVESTIGATED, NS?!? WHY DID YOU NOT INVESTIGATE

THE GUY YOU WERE VOTING

?!?

NOBODY SPECIAL IS FAKECLAIMING SCUM. SLEEPYKREW IS CONFIRMED TOWN. CELEBLOKI AND CHKBALLIN ARE SCUMPARTNERS OF NOBODY SPECIAL.

MAKE THIS LYNCH HAPPEN.

[Palisade]

What.

No, seriously.

What on earth.

Changed your read.

From Reck-scum.
To Reck-Killed-At-Night.

We obviously weren't going to shoot him.
That'd mean that--to your knowledge--the only people who could shoot Reck would be scum.
Yet that'd require Reck to not be scum.

WHAT CHANGED?

NOTHING!

[Palisade]

DGB. Reck.

SLEEPYKREW!

bv. They're all confirmed-town, now.

NOBODY SPECIAL

!

Celebloki. chkballin. THEY'RE ALL CONFIRMED SCUM AND NEED TO DIE IN A FIRE!!!

One more scumbag to nail, and we've got this game as a guaranteed win.

[Palisade]

Let me explain to you in the bluntest terms why SleepyKrew is confirmed-town due to the move NS just pulled.

NS claimed Cop, with a Guilty on SleepyKrew.

And left open an option of SleepyKrew flipping town. "If SleepyKrew flips town, you'll know I'm insane."

THIS IS A SCUMSLIP, BECAUSE IT REVEALS THAT

NOBODY SPECIAL

KNOWS

ALREADY

THAT SLEEPYKREW WILL FLIP TOWN

.

If SleepyKrew were scum with NS, there'd be no need for NS to leave that clause about possibly being insane, because NOBODY SPECIAL WOULD KNOW THE RESULT TO BE ACCURATE.

So, NOBODY SPECIAL IS NOT BUSSING WITH THE SLEEPYKREW VOTE. SLEEPYKREW IS TOWN.

[Palisade]

Goddamnit. And here I was hoping that Thor would be a voice of reason and convince Reck to lynch Nobody Special.

APPARENTLY YOU GUYS ARE JUST TOO FOND OF FOLLOWING THE "COP" WHO IS ACTING

EXACTLY

LIKE A SCUM FAKECLAIM.

If we lynch SleepyKrew, Sleepy will flip town.
If we vig NS and NS is kill-immune, we lose a better vig-shot as well as a pro-town player.
Then we'd lynch NS.
If we're still alive, we get another vig, sure, but the scum also get a free kill on ANOTHER pro-town player.

And that's not accounting for this third, likely-SK-kill. That adds an additional two (most likely pro-town) deaths every night. Leaving us with five dead town instead of two. You can see the difference.

Additionally, an NS-scumflip today would condemn chkballin and Celebloki for the reasons I outlined earlier.

Now, compare that to lynching NS. IF NS was SOMEHOW town, then we simply vig SleepyKrew. We lose three town, sure, but we are free to lynch scum tomorrow.

But WHEN NS flips scum, we'd have lost nothing beyond normal, and gained a freakin huge plus.

[Palisade]

If you just quicklynched the obv-town SleepyKrew, I will Rage.

So hard.

[Palisade]

We shot chk.

[Palisade]

Oh, boy.

[hilarious backpedaling] So, apparently, we didn't shoot chkballin.

The funny thing about Hydras is, that sometimes, we communicate so well that we forget and miscommunicate key details. Heh, imagine that. Our QT last night essentially went:
ME: "...Alright. I'm clueless as to who to kill. *some talk about suspects* chkballin, maybe?"
Redhead: *some more talk about suspects* "I say we kill chkballin."
ME: "Alright, chkballin it is!"
Then, morning came with no bodies. I immediately posted, "we shot chk[ballin]".
And then I thought, "...but why didn't he die?"
So, I run off to our QT, and ask the dreaded question. "...You DID submit the chkballin kill, right?"
"I thought you did!"
"But I tho--ooooooh, boy..."

You see, the funny thing about conversations like that. You both tend to get the impression that you're reading the mind of your partner better than you apparently actually can, hah. We had mutually assumed that the other had done the deed. As it turns out, we apparently were, well, assuming a little too much. So, uh...yeah. We didn't shoot chkballin last night. We shot nobody last night. (Oops? Heh, heh.) Imagine that. You gotta love the little fine details of playing a hydra with killing power... [/hilariously sad backpedaling]

[Palisade]

Vote: chkballin

.

[Palisade]

Sorry, both halves of us are still quite occupied.

But we're not a SK. I'll tell you that much. SKs can't no-kill, can they? So unless you want to argue that we were roleblocked by the scum, that means that we can't be an SK.

Furthermore, it's becoming very common for moderators to use one-shot roles in combination with a full version. For instance, I've seen AT LEAST two games which had a 1-shot tracker with a full tracker as well. Both within the last three months. I can totally see Wraith including a vig, and a 1-shot vig.

[Palisade]

We have a personal suspicion on Vinegar.
We also aren't fans of Taro's hammer.
And we also think Parabollock's slot has a significant chance of being scum.

If you're a real cop, NS, DO NOT INVESTIGATE THESE NAMES.

Our vig target will be among these three names.

We won't be shooting NS. As pointed out, if NS is a legitimate cop, he'll give good results. If NS is lying scum, he'll be forced to clear/condemn too many people before lylo and we'll be able to catch him. Additionally, the thought of lynching NS the day before lylo is a good one, for the confirmation of results.

He needs to die, sure, but not yet. Not by our hands, tonight.

[Palisade]

We were roleblocked.
And apparently, the mod made an error yesterday by neglecting to inform us that we were roleblocked yesterday as well.

But for the record, we shot Parabollocks.

And we're pretty sure Vinegar's scum. VOTE: VinegarEater. We'll type up a case shortly.

[Palisade]

WHY VINEGAR IS SCUM:

1: Meta. Jily has multiple times in her career admitted to liking to play mafia more than town. Across the whole site, she decides to flake out of all her games, except for this one. This fits with her being scum.

2: Timing of the claim. Why wait until day two to claim?

3: Overpowered. A PGO in this game is just too strong.

4: Connections. Search for Any variant of SleepyKrew. Can you find any matches? I found maybe one--responding to a question asked by SleepyKrew. Other than that, nothing.

How about Auckmed or Zebronic? Anything there?

...Nope, it's not there, either.

Okay, how about JDGA?

...No?


...Yeah.

No mention of any three of our scum flips from her.


5: But let's look at it the other way, too.

Jily, on the other hand, is just digging herself a hole. I'm actually pretty happy with voting her right now, so without further ado: VOTE: jilynne1991

This is it. His main reason to vote for Jily. Parking it on there for so long looks to be an attempt at distancing--JDGA had stronger scum-reads to pursue, with more support, yet kept his vote on her dead wagon--why?

jilynne, however, still has these same contradictions surrounding her that she since she tried to explain away her vote on DK, and I really don't like them. IMO, thinking that L-7 is pressure doesn't really seem to make sense to me, and her constant flipflopping of attitudes towards DK in particular just reeks of scum. My vote stays.

Again, this looks like obvious bussing.

But anyways, regarding the game itself, Taro feels to me sorta like he made a legit mistake, and the amount of pressure san and Thor (there are others) are putting on him seems a little extreme. DK seems to be trying to co-operate, so I say that we should at least give him a chance now. The scum ratio numbers, however, do seem awfully suspicious from him. Swag still hasn't said anything else since that "oh sorry I'll unvote if you want" post, which is frustrating and makes me want to vote him. So I'll give an FoS to both DK and Swag.

Keeps his vote on Jily, despite having other stronger suspects. Again, this is a classic sign of bussing.

So although I do still think that jily reeks of scum, I can see that there's no point in leaving my vote on her if nothing's going to happen. So, UNVOTE: jilynne1991.
But looking through Towie's and glowball's posts, especially the quoted one above, I can see awfully clearly why the latter appears scummy. Therefore, VOTE: glowball.

Finds an excuse to get off of jily. It reads as a way to get off of a buddy.

And that's the last mention of Jily.
Jily disappears from JDGA's suspects permanently once he switches. No lingering doubt. This leaves the obvious impression that JDGA didn't want more attention on Jily.

SleepyKrew displays a similar trend. ISO's 0, 1, 2, and 4 all have Jily in them...and then, WormyKrew's next mention of Jily is in ISO 40. As if WormyKrew had 'forgotten' about Jily conveniently.

Sensing the pattern?

And note, no vote. Helps jily along in ISO 41, as well. SleepyKrew weakly supports her wagon, but doesn't get on it. (ISO 44.)

ISO 57 contains a blatant Jily defense as well.

And then, Jily's name disappears. For the rest of the game.
Again.


See the pattern?

And it doesn't stop there.

Reck and thor are obv-town
Jilynne is town
I can't read sleepykrew for shit, so I'm going to trust reck's read (which he seems rather confident about).
Taro is town
Chkballin' is likely town
Peregrine, KoC, Parabollocks, and JGDA need to die
I believe Palisade's vig claim
Cele is probably town

Note that the "likely-town" are all considered, well, pretty much town right now. But the "is town" names are out of place.

I think it is possible Jilly COULD be lieing when she claimed PGO, and is useing it as a coverup so that no one will investigate. I saw a game 1 time when a Goon claimed that role, and because everyone was too scared to investigate, the Mafia won.

And this again looks like weak bussing--no vote from Auckmid. No further addressing of this. Seems like he knows too much about the subject, like he knows it's fake already.

6: And if that wasn't enough, let's do some VCA!

DeityKabuto (4): xRECKONERx, Tomie Uzumaki, Parabollocks, Thor665, Swag136, Knight of Cydonia, jilynne1991

Jily bandwagonning.

DeityKabuto (2): PBuG, jilynne1991

Keeps her vote on a dead, stale wagon.

Knight of Cydonia (5): Thor665, PBuG, Palisade, PBuG, SleepyKrew, jilynne1991

More blatant bandwagoning.

SleepyKrew (8): NobodySpecial, bvoigt, xRECKONERx, Thor665, PeregrineV, Celebloki, Auckmid, Parabollocks

Jily seems to love wagoning the town lynches. See Deity and KoC. Yet is surprisingly absent from the scum lynch of SleepyKrew. Coincidence? I think not.

7: And finally, we can get to Vinegar's play. (This is quite extensive, so we'll be posting this part of our case separately. Vinegar's done more scumminess in ten pages than Jily did for the entire game.)

8: But to finish it up, there's Night Actions--
Yesterday, we said we were going to shoot one of {Vinegar, Taro, Parabollocks}. If Vinegar was really a PGO, had we shot Vinegar, it'd have not only taken out the PGO, but ALSO the vig, a 2-for-0 trade for the scum. They couldn't ask for a better deal.

The fact that we were blocked suggests they didn't want us to shoot Vinegar. And therefore, that Vinegar's claim is fabricated.

[Palisade]

We

were

going to shoot Parabollocks, but decided that since the slot was about to get modkilled, it'd be a waste, so we shot Taro.

Meaning, yes, the Mafia kill is missing.

Oh. And VOTE: Amrun.

[Palisade]

If we're gonna go down, we're gonna go down nailing the scumteam. We've been collaborating a post for the last 72 hours, but have been preoccupied elsewhere. Give us that long to finish and show our thoughts on the game.

[Palisade]

This is not our full wall, but it's a part of the wall which I think Almond wouldn't mind me posting now rather than later with the rest of the wall:


First off. No talk about only four scum and having one remaining. This game had 22 players. And even if two of the town PR claims were scum fakeclaiming, that's still a lot of town power against such a small scumteam. (Even with a scum RB all-but confirmed.) We have at least five, if not six. Since we're a vig, not a SK, we're assuming six. (It'd be five if there was a SK. But since we know there isn't a SK, it has to be six.)

Since there's ten alive, that means 3/10 are scum. Meaning with you lynching the vig today, tomorrow will be 3/8 scum, which is mislynch-and-lose (mylo). In other words, you'll be past the NS threshhold. In other words, you'll have lost your last chance to test NS.

Today is the day before effective lylo

.

If you lynch us today, the town has run out of ways to test NS. In other words, the town will have to either trust him or lynch him, with the results determining the game.

If NS isn't lynched today, we can't test his alignment.

Whereas if you lynch NS today, then we can vig someone tonight. Assuming we're not blocked, we bring the game to odd numbers rather than even, we have NS's results confirmed, and we can go into lylo.

So, we'll be making two scumlists--one where NS is town, and the other where NS is scum. This will double the workload, but ensure we cover our bases.

Of course, this is all assuming the town is smart enough to realize that we shouldn't be lynched today, which I sincerely doubt given the moronic play thusfar. (Really, a Fourseen lynch?!? THE GUY WAS OBV-TOWN! And leaving us at L-1 when we're building a case rather than unvoting to ensure no premature hammer. In a lynch-happy town which is prone to hammering randomly.)


VOTE: Nobody Special. As mentioned, we're personally thinking that an NS lynch today gives the greatest chance of a town victory.

-Redhead

[Palisade]

5. DrippingGoofball Mist7676 <--Vanilla claim, apparently. (Personal town-read of ours, but we'll be looking at her objectively to make sure she's town, just in case.)
6. VinegarEater jilynne1991** <--"Paranoid Gun Owner". Note the quotations.
7. bvoigt <--Null, weak town-lean.
12. PeregrineV <--Null,

scum-lean

.

Edit: Claimed doctor, confirmed town.

15. NobodySpecial <--Cop claim.
17. xRECKONERx <--Apparent Innocent of NS.
18. Amrun Parabollocks** <--Heavy scum suspect.
19. chkballin <--Backup Roleblocker claim. Despite evidence that the roleblocker is indeed scum--targets of Thor (N1), ? (N2), Us (N3+4), and NS (N5). None of those are town-motivated.
20. Celebloki <--Apparent innocent of NS.


We've had these power-role claims:
Cop (krypt, dead N1 [our vig, sowwy ]), (Other) Cop (NS), two-shot Vig (Thor, dead N4), Paranoid Gun Owner (Jily/Vinegar), Full-Vig (us), doctor (

?--but

PeregrineV's

pretty much confirmed with so many missing scum kills), and Backup Roleblocker (chkballin).

Now, seven roles of that strength in a 22 player game isn't as bad as we originally assumed--with a weak scumteam of 4, it's way too much, sure. It seems like at LEAST two claims would have to be false and even THAT might not be enough. (Hence, why a 4-man scumteam is way too weak, even with their last member being an RB.)

With a mediocre scumteam of 5, it can go many ways--one lie (this is most likely), two lies (doubtful), or maybe all true (extremely doubtful). With a 6-man scumteam, versus 7 power roles, it looks like that for symmetrical purposes, one has to be lying.

From this, we've concluded:

-If NS flips scum, Vinegar and chkballin are both confirmed town.
-If NS flips town, one of Vinegar and chkballin is scum, but the other is town.

This will be the foundation for our reads.

However, the setup speculation is not finished. With 3 Goons, that means that a scumteam of 5 would have to be incredibly powerful (especially in the one-lie or all-true scenarios). We know one of their roles is a Roleblocker. That's pretty much confirmed. The other would have to be Godfather. (Whether it's investigation-immune or kill-immune, I dunno. It'd have to be one or the other, but not both.)

With a team of 6, this is more ambiguous. We know they have a roleblocker. They'd obviously have at least one more Goon, making their team Goon x 4, Roleblocker, and ?.

The question mark role probably wouldn't be a Rolecop--the scum's kills seem to have mostly been on mediocre players. This implies their kills are generally geared towards PR-hunting. Tomie and *numbers* for instance both reek of being PR-hunts, since neither were epiphanies of towniness. Hence, their last role can't be that.

It could be a Godfather.

If NS is town, the chances of an investigation-immune Godfather are higher, since two cops is overall stronger than one full-vig and another limited-shot vig.

If NS is scum, the chances of an nk-immune Godfather are SIGNIFICANTLY higher, since one cop is weaker than a full vig plus limited-shot vig.


NS has claimed to be roleblocked, last night. If NS is town and not lying, this implies to me that the scum are still afraid of him--that they fear his investigation. In other words, if NS is town, they still can be caught. This'd imply that either
1: the godfather was already investigated (leaving only goon/RB to be investigated, neither of which is a good thing for them), or
2: there is no godfather (but then what the heck would their last scum PR be?!?)

Which means that if NS is town, {Celebloki, Reck} contains one scum. Making {Celebloki, Reck} and {chkballin, Vinegar} be 2/3 of our scum.


If NS is scum, however, it theoretically could imply the same thing: NS has given four results. An innocent on us (Vig--or to you crazy conspiracy theorists, SK, but either way, not the issue), a guilty on SleepyKrew, and two further innocents on Celebloki and Reck. Seems like a dangerous amount to call town.

This'd have been confirmed if NS added another result to his claim in the NS-is-scum scenario. However, since NS claims to be blocked, this could imply that NS's results were all real and NS fears clearing too many people. This is what we believe if NS is scum, that
{chkballin, Vinegar, Celebloki, Reck} is ALL town. Which'd narrow down the lynch pool to a guaranteed win, pretty much, limiting the names for scum to be

{DGB, bv,

Peregrine

, Amrun}. Between our vig and a lynch, we'd have them all dead soon enough.

We will be pursuing this line of thought, to try and narrow it down to NS and two from the above.



...Unfortunately, we find it more likely that NS's claim IS legitimate. Where'd that roleblock go, if not onto NS? It was on us for two nights in a row, so it had to have gone somewhere else. (Theoretically, we suppose it's possible they doc-hunted or decided not to use it on anyone to make NS look better, but both seem less probable than NS being blocked. Sadly.)


Which means one of {Vinegar, chkballin} is scum, one of {Celebloki, Reck} is prob-scum, and there's one more scum loose within {DGB, bv,

Peregrine

, Amrun}.

This scenario is harder for us and will be a LOT more work than the NS-is-scum scenario. But it'll be worth it if the end result is, indeed, a town victory.



And now that we've finally, FINALLY gotten all that setup speculation out of the way, the real work begins. We will be covering as much as the game as we can, in as much detail as possible, to figure out who the scum are.

With the revelation that PeregrineV is a doctor who has protected our cop consistently, it pretty much confirms what the above shows we already suspected. We'll be posting shortly the follow-up to this.

Our targets were Krypt N1, Khan N2, no player (but was supposed to be chkballin) N3 (Blocked anyway), Parabollocks N4 (blocked), and Taro N5.

[Palisade]

But the tl;dr version is that Amrun/Vinegar/Celebloki makes a lot of sense as the scumteam, from what we've observed.

[Palisade]

We've had these power-role claims:
Cop (krypt, dead N1 [our vig, sowwy ]), (Other) Cop (NS), two-shot Vig (Thor, dead N4), Paranoid Gun Owner (Jily/Vinegar), Full-Vig (us), doctor (

?--but

PeregrineV's

pretty much confirmed with so many missing scum kills), and Backup Roleblocker (chkballin).

It seems like at LEAST two claims would have to be false.

With a mediocre scumteam of 5, it can go many ways--

one lie

(this is most likely),

two lies

(doubtful), or maybe all true (extremely doubtful). With a 6-man scumteam, versus 7 power roles, it looks like that for symmetrical purposes,

one has to be lying

.

From this, we've concluded:
-If NS flips town, one of Vinegar and

chkballin

is scum, but the

other is town

.

However, the setup speculation is not finished. With 3 Goons, that means that

a scumteam of 5 would have to be incredibly powerful

(especially in the one-lie or all-true scenarios). We know one of their roles is a Roleblocker. That's pretty much confirmed. The other

would have to be Godfather

. (Whether it's

investigation-immune

or kill-immune, I dunno. It'd have to be one or the other, but not both

.)

If NS is town, the chances of an investigation-immune Godfather are higher, since two cops is overall stronger than one full-vig and another limited-shot vig.

NS has claimed to be roleblocked, last night. If NS is town and not lying, this implies to me that the scum are still afraid of him--that they fear his investigation. In other words, if NS is town, they still can be caught. This'd imply that either
1:

the godfather was

already

investigated

(leaving only goon/RB to be investigated, neither of which is a good thing for them)

Which means that if NS is town, {Celebloki,

Reck

} contains one scum. Making {Celebloki,

Reck

} and {[/b]chkballin[/b], Vinegar} be 2/3 of our scum.

...Unfortunately, we find it more likely that NS's claim IS legitimate. Where'd that roleblock go, if not onto NS? It was on us for two nights in a row, so it had to have gone somewhere else.

Which means one of {Vinegar,

chkballin

} is scum, one of {Celebloki,

Reck

} is prob-scum.

With the revelation that PeregrineV is a doctor who has protected our cop consistently, it pretty much

confirms what the above shows we already

suspected

. We'll be posting shortly the follow-up to this.

Our targets were Krypt N1, Khan N2, no player (but was supposed to be chkballin) N3 (Blocked anyway), Parabollocks N4 (blocked), and Taro N5.

We literally GAVE the town the scumteam, and we were ignored. We flat-out breadcrumbed that we knew there HAD to be a Godfather. We were given the choice between Kill-Immune and Lynch-Immune (already by default being Investigation-Immune), so we KNEW that a Godfather HAD to be in the game, and I speculated that they ALSO had a choice, between Kill-Immune and Lynch-Immune.

I could not have 'crumbed this harder without flat-out claiming SK-who-got-a-choice. Completely and totally ignored.

As I said in the dead QT,

SKs scumhunt, too, you know.

~Almond.

[Palisade]

I know SKs scumhunt - I just didn't think you were a very good scumhunter.

Admittedly? Yeah, all of our main suspects aside from chkballin turned up town. We shot wrong multiple times, despite our best efforts. (Every single one of our shots was town-motivated, since we knew if we didn't shoot like a vig would, we were screwed.)

But we literally GAVE the town the last two scum when we pointed out NS was town, and exactly why we believed what we did--and we were entirely right on it, too. One scum in {chkballin, Vinegar}, one scum in {Celebloki, Reckoner}.

...We would've chosen wrong in both categories, but once chkballin flipped scum, we knew Vinegar was town. (This was before the mod PM'd us the link to the Graveyard, mind you. We got that link only after the modkill on chkballin.)