Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[DragonEater70]

Pav care to explain the vote on me

[DragonEater70]

MY READS

WELCOME TO AMOGUS CITY

He got that drip frfr

The nice list
Flavor
Pavowski
Joyboy

The neutral list
HighPrincessErinys
geraintm
Purplemango

The naught list (impostors are venting and sabotaging our tasks like taking care of navigation but then the oxygen starts to run out??!?!?!??!!)
Kyouku
DragonEater
Hu Tao

further developments could cause me to downgrade either joyboy or purplemango and swap them with a scumread, unlikely though

T

A

K

E

I

T

O

R

L

E[color=#0040FF]A[color=#00FFFF]V[color=#FFFFFF]E [color=#800000]I[color=#408040]T

[/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

Unfortunately 1 and probably 2 of your scumreads are wrong. So might need to rethink it

I think all three SRs are wrong but I'm probably wrong on that mathematically speaking

[DragonEater70]

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

I'm not going to pretend to understand the logic of why this post means Kyo or DE or *both* could be scum, but the more I sit with it the more scum!Dragon makes sense to me

VOTE: Dragon

This is definitely a scum post

Like Pav isn't even pretending to have a reason to vote me. It's thinly veiled OMGUS on a slot that he sees is coming under fire, when he needs to divert attention off hinself after the towncore starts suspecting him.

Game solved GGEZ

[DragonEater70]

Yeah I don't think Pav has been particulalrly scummy in his play, it's just a gut thought that he's scum more than anything else. Like his towniness is the easiest to fake out of all players, if that makes sense.

[DragonEater70]

But 900, 863 and 867 read as flailing / throwing mud everywhere in search of a viable wagon

[DragonEater70]

Anyhow I'm going to slither back into the meta rabbit hole I've been in for the last 40 minutes trying to figure out if my read of Kyo is valid or not

[DragonEater70]

Alright I skimmed like 2-3 of Kyouko's town games and also 2-3 scum games of hers, and my conclusion is that Kyouko doesn't know how to powerwolf / fake-tunnel as scum. OTOH, there's at least one instance in her town games of being overly-insistent on a wrong scumread.

So I feel content with my read of her as town for now - at least until she does something which makes me question that read.

[DragonEater70]

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

How the fuck does that work??? Like you think FL is lying about being a vig? If so you should vote him not me. And why would scum!me even need to "bait out the real vig" if Flavor isn't the real vig? Wouldn't the "real vig" CC anyway?

[DragonEater70]

Santa brought us coal for Christmas

Probably because we were naughty and killed Laplacian

@Kyo

can I be conftown for not wanting to kill him earlier?

No?

You have a really dry sense of humor.

[DragonEater70]

Wait that's not what that means

I meant you don't get jokes

[DragonEater70]

If all my town reads are correct (which is 100% not the case), then the following are town:
Purple, Flavor, Dragon, HPE, cw, Kyouko, Hu Tao

Meaning the scum team is exactly Gera/Pav/Joyboy

However like I said this is incorrect

What I think is pretty likely is there's 0 scum in Purple/Dragon/Flavor/Kyo, 1 scum in cw/HPE/Hu Tao, and 2 scum in Gera/Pav/Joyboy

Pav is my most confident SR but I would 100% go for Gera/Joyboy. I think fading one and vigging another out of these three will give us a scum flip 95% of the time.

[DragonEater70]

Votecount 1.6

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 07:27:34).

Votecount

Laplacian

(7)

-

ssbm_kyouko

,

Abnegation

, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm,

DragonEater70

,

Flavor Leaf

Joyboy (2)

- cw357, Hu Tao

cw357 (1)

- Joyboy

HighPrincessErinys (1)

-

Laplacian

Not Voting (2)

-

Purplemango

,

Thomith

Flavour

Dark green - conftown
Light green - confident these are town / conftown FMPOV only

Based on this we can rule out HPE/Pav/Gera scum team as well as Hu/cw/Joy scum team. However cw and Hu Tao have individually high partner equity with Joyboy (distancing).

Pav's vote looks less opportunistic than I remembered.

Maybe the solve is like 2 out of cw/Joy/Hu Tao + 1 out of HPE/Gera. I need to look at combined ISOs to confirm likelihood of this.

[DragonEater70]

Okay Hu Tao is never scum with Joyboy (and on reread of ISO is town)

[DragonEater70]

Going to sleep, continue tomorrow

[DragonEater70]

Cobtinuing ISO work from yesterday:

While joint ISOing cw/Joyboy I noticed interestingly that Pav/cw are also never scum together

cw/Joyboy don't look partnered on an ISO read actually, but there's definitely a world where they decided to spend Day 1 on crazy distancing kinda like how I did with RCE in this game.

Joyboy can you explain your read on cw please? Yes I will keep asking you to.

And cw what's your read on Joyboy? Is it just scum for taking the policy elim bait?

[DragonEater70]

If all my town reads are correct (which is 100% not the case), then the following are town:
Purple, Flavor, Dragon, HPE, cw, Kyouko, Hu Tao

Meaning the scum team is exactly Gera/Pav/Joyboy

However like I said this is incorrect

What I think is pretty likely is there's 0 scum in Purple/Dragon/Flavor/Kyo, 1 scum in cw/HPE/Hu Tao, and 2 scum in Gera/Pav/Joyboy

Pav is my most confident SR but I would 100% go for Gera/Joyboy. I think fading one and vigging another out of these three will give us a scum flip 95% of the time.

I don't hate this plan

Votecount 1.6

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 07:27:34).

Votecount

Laplacian

(7)

-

ssbm_kyouko

,

Abnegation

, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm,

DragonEater70

,

Flavor Leaf

Joyboy (2)

- cw357, Hu Tao

cw357 (1)

- Joyboy

HighPrincessErinys (1)

-

Laplacian

Not Voting (2)

-

Purplemango

,

Thomith

Flavour

Dark green - conftown
Light green - confident these are town / conftown FMPOV only

Based on this we can rule out HPE/Pav/Gera scum team as well as Hu/cw/Joy scum team. However cw and Hu Tao have individually high partner equity with Joyboy (distancing).

Pav's vote looks less opportunistic than I remembered.

Maybe the solve is like 2 out of cw/Joy/Hu Tao + 1 out of HPE/Gera. I need to look at combined ISOs to confirm likelihood of this.

Okay let's go joyboy if you think I'm just scum bussing.

VOTE: Joyboy

[DragonEater70]

Are you calling me or joyboy town there?

You

[DragonEater70]

If CW is town, and Hu Tao/Dragon town, if I’m dead, CW voting one of Hu Tao/Dragon is game over.

Correct

[DragonEater70]

Who do you wanna do?

[DragonEater70]

How terrible would a mass claim be right now. Because as of right now, I feel like if we don't get scum today or by vig shot, we lose effectively.

Missing scum today would be bad but wouldn't end the game, I don't think.

Currently 10 players, 3 scum

We vote off town, that's 6 town to 3 scum
Assuming scum kills tonight and it's unstoppable (I dunno how likely this is, just playing out worst cases) that's 5 town to 3 scum
Assuming vig shoots green tonight that's 4 town to 3 scum

Y'know, suboptimal, but not a game over if we miss today. I dunno if we need or want the mass claim, and I personally am not going back looking for softs. Maybe Kyo wants a homework assignment.

You forget (or intentionally ignore) that town!cw misvotes 90% of the time in ELo.

i am vt

not opposed to a hu tao wagon, who's feeling it?

maybe hu tao/dragon/hpe is scumteam?

Literal proof of this in the literal next post.

[DragonEater70]

But 900, 863 and 867 read as flailing / throwing mud everywhere in search of a viable wagon

Dragon you seem to have gone right to to "Pav's reasons are bad therefore scum" without ever passing through "Pav's reasons are bad, therefore dumb town".

Here's the thing -- your play has been chaotic enough that it's been hard to read for me from game start. You've made some odd votes, sheeped FL almost without fail, and now that I'm professing some serious misgivings about you, wham, I'm one of your top scumreads. I don't think you OMGUS me like that as town.

You're the one I want today, baby, but we'll always have d1

Thing is you are the one omgusing

Also why are you trying to convince me I am scum?

[DragonEater70]

Let me explain my thought process on Pav, because I sorta intentionally didn't explain it earlier as I'd wanted to see reactions to my vote on him.

Day 1 he was being voted/shaded for some eary game weirdness which I was willing to ignore as I could see coming from town. Then he made more posts which came across as towny.

However today with Abnegation flipping green and me re-evaluating my scumread on HPE (I think HPE is nulltown right now FWIW), I realized I'd been most likely townreading scum. And while his posts *sound* towny, they are definitely NOT impossible to fake, which makes him the likeliest person to be the scum I'd been townreading. He *sounds* like he's trying to solve the game, but when I actually read his posts I cannot an actual thought process about people's alignments to which I could say "yeah, this person actually had this thought and is actually trying to figure things out".

[DragonEater70]

I cannot see an actual thought process*

[DragonEater70]

i am vt

not opposed to a hu tao wagon, who's feeling it?

maybe hu tao/dragon/hpe is scumteam?

I've been town reading dragon since day 1

I kinda ship DE/Hu Tao as scumteam with a lurker but this is awfully lazy defense of scum!Dragon by a scumpartner

Okay this genuinely made me chuckle

I ship myself with Hu Tao as a town team!

[DragonEater70]

VOTE: Pav

[DragonEater70]

Rather you shoot Dragon if you flip me/CW today but you do you boo

Maybe somebody can change my mind over the coming days, tho

I'm re-voting Dragon tomorrow

I really don't mind being shot by Flavor

[DragonEater70]

Im beginning to think Kyouko is probably scum here as well, so that might be a vig shot.

idk, that Lap wagon was really bad, and I knew it too. If I wasn't vig, i wouldnt have faded there, even with the vanilla claim.

HPE's vote on Lap is awful too.

Stop stealing my thoughts Flavor.

[DragonEater70]

Kyouko, HPE, Hu Tao?

I stated it before but I am gonna be gobsmacked if scum!Kyo leads a relentless charge like that on Lap. She never wavered, even a little bit -- that's a hell of a gambit for scum.

Of course, me being surprised by a thing is hardly a reason to think it couldn't happen.

More likely Hu Tao, HPE, Geraint but Geraint's still basically a zero info slot

If I'm going to reconsider town!Dragon I need to reconsider scum!Purple, I was close to ruling that out

Can you explain why town!me implies scum!purple? I am like totally failing to see the rationale here. If you are town explaining this rationale might help me see your thought process.

[DragonEater70]

Also I don't understand something - do you want to vote slots only based on how much info they give? Not based on how lilely to flip scum they are?

[DragonEater70]

Like this line of "it could be geraint but geraint is still a zero info slot" pings me as Pav trying to prevent a wagon on his partner with weak reasoning.

[DragonEater70]

Also (and sorry for spamming), what made you reconsider and decide I could be town?

[DragonEater70]

Anyhow I agree Purple has no agenda and that TRing everyone makes sense

I agree with Hu Tao that shooting between Dragon/HT is a bad idea if you want to shoot scum, and I think if Pav flips town today and you sooo sure there's one scum between Pav/cw, you should just shoot cw (also prevents cw from misvoting in ELo in town!cw world).

[DragonEater70]

I've kinda convinced myself Pav has to be scum here - he continues making town-sounding posts but there's no real point behind them except try to look better.

[DragonEater70]

I'm not really defending cw, I just just want to kill Pav today. Do you disagree with the several posts I've made pointing out why he's scum?

[DragonEater70]

Flavor I just finished a game (the one I linked earlier that you replaced out of) where on Day 2 there were 10 players alive with a large PoE and few townreads. And in that game I made the mistake of not pushing and poking people until I was sure of their alignments but sort of working together with scum to get a compromise lim.

cw in my eyes is a compromise lim and will probably flip town and then we will have a nightmarish Day 3. Pav actually has an agenda, you literally said this 3 pages ago. I want to kill Pav, or alternatively continue pressuring him until he responds well enough I actually TR him.

[DragonEater70]

Okay then please do a proper scum case with quotes of the posts explaining the agenda.

I will read it.

[DragonEater70]

cases with quotes are for scum or catchups.

Convince me however you want. I know you know what I mean, and I know you know you are able to do it. I just want to be convinced before I vote there.

[DragonEater70]

Basically, scum usually try to convince town to do something that is bad for town, such as voting town or not voting scum.

Flavor basically said, and I agree with him, that you are not trying to convince anyone to do anything and that means you ared town.

[DragonEater70]

i just generally feel Pav's got a sense of 'if i gotta die, i gotta die, but im gonna fight trying' in a townie way, and not a scummy way.

I also saw that and it definitely gave me pause, but I feel this is more posturing about fighting than actually fighting? Like if he really had this attitude I'd expect him to push me / Hu Tao more and make sure that the "right" lim/kill happens after he dies, but instead he's like "oh okay cool you wanna kill me today? I believe in you town".

It's fake.

[DragonEater70]

I promise I'm not deliberately spamming the thread, but I hate wall posting. Between my last post and some notes I took at the end of d1 when I got home and the thread was locked have me really considering Purple/Dragon as two of the three scum (It would be 3 in a normal, right?). And given they know each other IRL...

scum!Purple / scum!Dragon works
town!Purple / scum!Dragon works
scum!Purple / town!Dragon doesn't work
town!Purple / town!Dragon could work but that means I have to find 3 scum in HPE, Kyouko, Joy, CW, Gera, Hu Tao. Possible? Yes. Likely? Feels like no.

Purple, what's your take on Dragon right now?

I misread this earlier.

Are you basically implying the only worlds that work are worlds where I am scum? Then why even put Purple into the equation here? Why can't I be town and Purple scum FYPOV?

This feels forced.

[DragonEater70]

It's also the way Pav talks to me with like zero implications of where I'm headed, even when they're on the chopping block.

They're like on the short list for both being faded and vigged, probably almost more than anyone in this game considering the push back on CW. And I think that's telling.

Okay

I wanna let some other people respond before I say what I think

[DragonEater70]

One sec

I posted this when I first started seriously considering you as scum and exploring the idea in the open. Looking at your interactions with Purple I came to the above. Unfortunately most of those combinations favored, and made sense in a context of, you being scum.

Explain?

[DragonEater70]

Yes, I understood that much

Why could you see it / couldn't you see it that way?

[DragonEater70]

Ah

Fine

That could be an actual thought process

UNVOTE: pav

[DragonEater70]

Do you wanna vote cw or should we annoy Flavor and go Gera/HPE instead?

[DragonEater70]

Never mind that was Hu Tao, damn these H names

I hated that analysis

Maybe I'm biased because I hate everything cw posts, but like are they scumreading her for "tunneling"? Since when has "tunneling" been a scum-exclusive trait?

And calling 399 w/w with me is laughable.

Honestly I am not sure it can even be called analysis, it looks like cw just opens a person's ISO and finds reasons to scumread them, ignoring any context or reasons to TR them.

I agree with Flavor that this is probably scum acting that way intentionally. Or newbscum who doesn't know hoe to fake natural reads.

VOTE: cw

[DragonEater70]

Hu Tao, can you talk about the PV/CW - Hu Tao/DragonEater dynamics to me? What are your thoughts on the 4 of you, not necessarily your read, but your thoughts on the 2 v 2 as a general thing.

I think that cw is probably town but will vote wrong tomorrow so he needs to go. Still a small chance he flips scum so better now then later. Pav seems to be the one who does soft defenses of cw so I think he could be the scum that wants cw alive for tomorrow.

In terms of Dragon and me. Could dragon ve pocketing me? Idk, I don't think so. Last time I played with dragon scum he was obvious and I called it day 1. I don't see that here. I think it's weird cw tries to push that me and dragon are a pair and his read seems very surface level which is why I think there is a chance cw flips scum.

I'm gonna locktown Hu Tao

So that makes 4 I'm never voting - Purple, Flavor, Hu Tao and myself.

[DragonEater70]

i just generally feel Pav's got a sense of 'if i gotta die, i gotta die, but im gonna fight trying' in a townie way, and not a scummy way.

I also saw that and it definitely gave me pause, but I feel this is more posturing about fighting than actually fighting? Like if he really had this attitude I'd expect him to push me / Hu Tao more and make sure that the "right" lim/kill happens after he dies, but instead he's like "oh okay cool you wanna kill me today? I believe in you town".

It's fake.

Thing is. Pav doesn't need to push us. Cw is doing it for him. So that's why it seems he has no need to fight it

You're saying this from a scum!Pav / town!cw perpective?

[DragonEater70]

Flavor

I know me and Hu Tao are powerwolfing right now with how we hard TR each other and push the same people, but you gotta trust in the power of the green powerwolf team.

So like, don't shoot us, please and thank you

Pedit: yay Kyouko is back

Kyouko how much have you read of toDay?

[DragonEater70]

VOTE: cw357
I'm not changing this vote rest of d2, you all can either wise up and vote hu tao or dragon or I'll get elimed, in which case doesn't make a difference what I vote

Quit throwing

[DragonEater70]

Yes, we are

Town aligned powerwolf

[DragonEater70]

I know Purple, I know Purple's meta, Purple ain't scum here

[DragonEater70]

Since we have a cop and vig. I'm guessing scum have 2 strong pr as well. So it's possible there is a scum that is being bussed by their teammates.

Who do you think is bussing / being bussed?

[DragonEater70]

Hu Tao, can you talk about the PV/CW - Hu Tao/DragonEater dynamics to me? What are your thoughts on the 4 of you, not necessarily your read, but your thoughts on the 2 v 2 as a general thing.

I think that cw is probably town but will vote wrong tomorrow so he needs to go. Still a small chance he flips scum so better now then later. Pav seems to be the one who does soft defenses of cw so I think he could be the scum that wants cw alive for tomorrow.

In terms of Dragon and me. Could dragon ve pocketing me? Idk, I don't think so. Last time I played with dragon scum he was obvious and I called it day 1. I don't see that here. I think it's weird cw tries to push that me and dragon are a pair and his read seems very surface level which is why I think there is a chance cw flips scum.

I'm gonna locktown Hu Tao

So that makes 4 I'm never voting - Purple, Flavor, Hu Tao and myself.

Can you explain why Hu Tao is town? I agree with the points I'm reading from cw against Hu Tao, but I have been severely tunneled in this game up until today. Specifically you mentioned it looks like cw is opening ISOs and ignoring context, and maybe because I've been tunneled I'm missing the fact that context is missing?

I feel in isolation and without fact-checking them that the cw posts about scum!HT make sense. Flavor being conftown and Laplacian flipping town really turns this game upside down for me. I also noticed about Thomith a few days ago when looking at his ISO that from the way he talked about Hu Tao I'm pretty sure he was banking on investigating them. I haven't looked for their meta together yet but it might be HT had reason to believe that could happen if they've played together in games where Thomith was an investigative before

I can't fully explain why she's town

I just feel she's working with me in a way that feels genuine and not like a pocket. Last time I played with scum Hu Tao, she was pocketing me hard, and although I had a TR on her, I was constantly paranoid she was pocketing me because the reads she had were too convenient. I don't have the same paranoia here.

The post I quoted doesn't feel in line with my experience of Hu Tao's scum game, either - there's too much genuine thought put into it compared to her scum game.

With cw, they are calling Hu Tao scum for tunneling, without considering the actual context of the tunneling and whether it could be a town tunnel. They decided a random post where Hu Tao asks me a(n admittedly pointless) question means Hu Tao is scum with me, but they are ignoring the bulk of Hu Tao's ISO which when read is full of town posts.

[DragonEater70]

Ok Dragon, what would scum!Purple be doing here?

Day 1 - hedging more about reads, either sheeping a townleader onto Lap or being LAMIST about not being on the wagon.

Day 2 - trying to make a play of some sort to distract from teammates being scumread (considering most people alive were scumread at some point today, I think it's a safe assumption to say that scum!Purple's teammates would have been SR'd at one point). Being more proactive in general.


Like this is a general idea, I cannot guarantee this is 1 for 1 what would happen, but the vibe here is vastly different.

[DragonEater70]

cases with quotes are for scum or catchups.

Convince me however you want. I know you know what I mean, and I know you know you are able to do it. I just want to be convinced before I vote there.

This one misses when you unconditionally sheeped FL

It was a Day 1 thing

But I might just go back to it

[DragonEater70]

Do you have any reads whatsoever? I have skimmed your ISO and I don't get the impression you have a stance on anyone.

[DragonEater70]

Flavor halp me

I can't read Gera

[DragonEater70]

(cw?, geraintm, joyboy?, flavor, myself, maybe DragonEater?) - players who reasonably could have found Thomith's cop crumb

Def not me, I once missed a crumb from my own slot

[DragonEater70]

Yeah this one doesn't think 47 was a normal or towny way of getting out of RVS like at all.

Hmm okay

Would you vote

Thomith

here?

i just have a hard time seeing Dragon play this way as scum. it's over the line of too much as scum, that i think it's just genuine.

im pocketed cuz of it if they are scum, though, so ill have to break out of that later in the game if it turns out they are, but thats not a Day 1 thing

This one doesn't think Dragon is scum tbh just not playing so well lmao

Sadly this makes me slightly less confident about the scumread

If

Lap

and

HT

stopped existing, sure.

I lol'd

If I were scum and I had TMI, I might find it amusing that town!HPE and town!Dragon are arguing over who should be wagoned (both wagon targets town), and that HPE says it would vote town if the other 2 town were gone. If Pavowski flips red I'm pretty confident this is why he was laughing and it means HPE, Dragon, and Hu Tao are all town

Why is Hu Tao green here?

[DragonEater70]

Oh sorry I should have read to the end

[DragonEater70]

Why pav is scum?

Why ask only about Pavowski and not Hu Tao here?

FWIW I wasn't calling Hu Tao scum in the post Purple replied to

[DragonEater70]

Feels like Kyouko already knew that was there and is acting like they didn’t

explain?

Can someone voting dragon explain that? I don't see it

pushed laplacian while maintaining distance yesterday in a very un-towny way
pocket attempts
a lot of interactions stuff, if a dragon wagon actually becomes a big thing I could ISO

Basically i think Kyouko already knew that FBI soft was there, and is acting like they just found it to help push a narrative. It’s sussy baka if they knew about it in Day 1.

Same thing occurred to me but I didn't know if that was the paranoia talking

It sure feels like I'm seeing Pavowski *behind* a lot of ideas but not giving a lot of his own ideas

VOTE: Pavowski
I do think I prefer this over cw because there's a possibility cw is being used as a townbeard. I agree with the points made that, if town, cw could be a liability in ELO given his tunneling hasn't stopped yet. Maybe it stops soon though if he is town?

Idk if it's stopped or not

We just need to vig cw

But I can support a Pav wagon

[DragonEater70]

Feels like Kyouko already knew that was there and is acting like they didn’t

explain?

Can someone voting dragon explain that? I don't see it

pushed laplacian while maintaining distance yesterday in a very un-towny way
pocket attempts
a lot of interactions stuff, if a dragon wagon actually becomes a big thing I could ISO

Basically i think Kyouko already knew that FBI soft was there, and is acting like they just found it to help push a narrative. It’s sussy baka if they knew about it in Day 1.

Same thing occurred to me but I didn't know if that was the paranoia talking

It sure feels like I'm seeing Pavowski *behind* a lot of ideas but not giving a lot of his own ideas

VOTE: Pavowski
I do think I prefer this over cw because there's a possibility cw is being used as a townbeard. I agree with the points made that, if town, cw could be a liability in ELO given his tunneling hasn't stopped yet. Maybe it stops soon though if he is town?

Idk if it's stopped or not

We just need to vig cw

But I can support a Pav wagon

lol dragon knows that if I were to flip green by getting elim-ed he, hpe, and hu tao would suddenly be vig targets ahahahahahahah
very smart

Counter: I've been asking FL to vig me since he claimed vig

Also why would I want FL to vig Hu Tao, who I think is town?

[DragonEater70]

How is Kyouko town

How is she not? This feels like what she posts in every town game ever

Granted, I am way less sure about her than I am sure about Hu Tao and Purple

[DragonEater70]

Rather you shoot Dragon if you flip me/CW today but you do you boo

Maybe somebody can change my mind over the coming days, tho

I'm re-voting Dragon tomorrow

Shooting in dragon and and me seems terrible regardless of the vote today.

I think shooting Dragon is bad unless Pav flips scum, and even then only because Dragon seems like the only deepwolf candidate, and it's more because Pav didn't let the Dragon wagon sit at E-2, but he did let Laplacian sit at E-2. If Pav is scum it's hard to look away from scum!DE possibilities

I just also don't believe DE goes through this much effort as scum after that Normal game we just finished where he was scum - I think it was 2315. T3's "Flavorless Hell"

Shooting me as deepwolf after Pav flips scum - spicy!

The game was 2319 btw. FWIW I usually effort more as scum, but I absolutely HATE bussing early and being the only scum. So I just pretended that cursed game didn't exist and let town kill each other.

[DragonEater70]

I think it's {Pavowski} + 2 of {Joyboy, geraintm, Purplemango}. DE has deepwolf potential but I think the level of effort shown here is unlikely to come from scum given what I just saw from scum!DE a few weeks ago.

lol that's probbly vv/v/v/v/v lol no u

Dafuq
I don't think there's a single person except you that thinks that all of these can be town.

Hang on while I process how hard Kyo is trying not to let the CW wagon happen by casing me under the fkin planet

That's an interesting point

Let me think about it

UNVOTE: cw meanwhile

Why pav is scum?

Why ask only about Pavowski and not Hu Tao here?

I pretty much understood why hu tao was there, less about pavowski, and they talked about him more before that
makes sense to me in general to ask about something specific, and not about all the scumreads there were

This is a real thought from Purple.

[DragonEater70]

Btw here's Purple's only other game on this site which is a town game, just for comparison:

viewtopic.php?t=91644

[DragonEater70]

Flavor halp me

I can't read Gera

@Flavor

We need your help in these trying times

[DragonEater70]

VOTE: Joyboy

[DragonEater70]

Wha

That's a horrible choice

[DragonEater70]

So like if we go cw because I don't want to be limmed and then cw flips town are you also gonna vig me/Hu Tao?

[DragonEater70]

Because if you answer yes you are simply hard throwing and it's not even funny

[DragonEater70]

Hu Tao help me out please

[DragonEater70]

Flavor is scumreading me because I am not basing my entire play on pocketing him

[DragonEater70]

Flavor

How does my play make ANY sense scum here

If I'm scum why don't I just continue pocketing you like I did Day 1? Why do I vote you when you fucking claim vig? Why do I vote Joyboy over the perfectly valid wagons of cw and Pav, which you seem to imply are town in a scum!Dragon world (based on the cw/Pav vs Hu Tao/Dragon thing from earlier)?

[DragonEater70]

@Dragon -

Is there a reason Joyboy is scum beyond the suspicion that there are scum amongst the low-content posters? Or is this just POE?

It's basically PoE because I am feeling paranoid about either of cw or Pav (the other valid wagons) possibly flipping town, and I don't see any reason to TR Joyboy right now.

Also I can't read Gera but I'm willing to sheep Flavor if he is so confident Gera is town.

[DragonEater70]

Flavor - conftown
Dragon - conftown fmpov
Hu Tao - locktown
Purple - I'm never voting today but theoretically not locktown
Kyouko - pretty confident she's town but aware could be wrong
Gera - can't read them (Flavor says town)

That leaves 2-3 scum in HPE/cw/Pav/Joyboy (2 if Flavor is wrong on Gera or I'm wrong on Kyo, but very low chance both are wrong - I don't see it)

Don't think cw/Pav are svs right now, don't know which one is scum if at all

So 1-2 of HPE/Joyboy are scum

[DragonEater70]

Voting Joyboy is suboptimal from a pure numbers viewpoint because technically they would have the same chance to flip scum as cw or Pav, and gove less info, but I just feel more confident that it will actually flip scum on a gut level

[DragonEater70]

Well I'll tell you one thing: I don't actively think about what I'd do as scum when I'm town.

[DragonEater70]

So all the reasons that are obvious to you aren't that obvious to me

[DragonEater70]

I can make a town case on every player in the game, more interested in scum cases.

I agree but

Where's the scumcase for Kyouko

What do you think about Kyouko's scumcase for Pav

What do you think about the (forgotten and perhaps unjustifiably so) scum case for HPE

And I also disagree that there's a GOOD town case for Joyboy.

[DragonEater70]

100% agree a red flip on CW looks rough on Kyo right now FMPOV

And I already think Hu Tao is more likely scum than not, how Dragon has that slot as locktown is ? ? ?

Why is HT scum?

[DragonEater70]

Damn it, every time I think Pav is a good flip he comes along and posts something like this which makes me say "why would scum!Pav just go and do the opposite of creating a wagon on a towny" and then I am lost again

[DragonEater70]

Fuck this I'm just going to sheep Flavor

Clearly he's not going to work with me and he's conftown so whatever

I'll graciously accept getting vigged tonight if Flavor is wrong

VOTE: cw

Pedit: okay that makes me feel slightly better about this vote

[DragonEater70]

UNVOTE:

[DragonEater70]

Fuck this I'm just going to sheep Flavor

Clearly he's not going to work with me and he's conftown so whatever

I'll graciously accept getting vigged tonight if Flavor is wrong

VOTE: cw

Pedit: okay that makes me feel slightly better about this vote

this is manipulative posting considering CW is E-1, and I'm not voting there.

It's not manipulative

You literally want cw/me/kyouko

I don't want me/kyouko

It's simple

[DragonEater70]

I thought Dragon's vote made CW e-2?

oh, DE was on CW earlier, unvoted, and revoted, huh?

That makes DE a little better for me.

Yuh

[DragonEater70]

That's actually a good point

The thought process on Lap is kinda non-existent

Same with the thought process on me

I guess if Pav is town that makes Kyouko obvscum

I still can't get over my Pav scumread though

Gonna ISO dive and maybe meta dive him if I feel like it

Pedit: Flavor can you stop being like that

You are looking under the carpet for reasons to discredit me

[DragonEater70]

I want in Kyouko, CW, or Dragon today.

Locking that in.

oh i said it this morning, lol.

Yeah, idk. something about CW doesn't feel right right now.

It's literally 2 hours ago dude

[DragonEater70]

Okay reading Pav ISO yeah he's obvtown

VOTE: Kyo

Also FoSing HPE for the particular way it sheeped me on Pav

[DragonEater70]

I have no interest in discrediting anyone this game-- I have absolutely zero need to discredit anywhere. I am confirmed town.

I need reasons that I am not seeing to help layer my reads. I feel like you feel it's discrediting because you don't have any reasons, which is also telling. It happens, town think they have reasons sometimes but when they look deeper, it disappears, and if you are town, i believe this is happening to you right now, so I want you to vocalize further why you town read Kyouko.

For multiple reasons:

1: I don't see town reasons for Kyouko right now, and think they're almost a lock for scum.
2: If I am wrong, I would like to be convinced.
3: It also tests you, and forces you to make content that I can then read to layer my read on you further.

Discrediting not in the sense of scum doing it but you are just trying to make everything I say be wrong regardless of what I say

That's at least how it feels, obviously I don't think you are doing it intentionally but if you are tunneled you could be very well doing it unintentionally.

[DragonEater70]

Anyway

My read on Kyouko was just that by a meta skim I don't think she knows how to hard tunnel / power wolf as scum, and that her posts here remind me of her town posts.

I agree with you that aside from meta there's little reason to TR her here, and if you take the viewpoint that Pav is town then her actions here do feel scum-motivated.

[DragonEater70]

Okay reading Pav ISO yeah he's obvtown

VOTE: Kyo

Also FoSing HPE for the particular way it sheeped me on Pav

Dude HOW when you've been saying for days (RL days) I'm scum?

The same way I flipped my read on you the first time? Day 1 I was townreading you

[DragonEater70]

Anyway

My read on Kyouko was just that by a meta skim I don't think she knows how to hard tunnel / power wolf as scum, and that her posts here remind me of her town posts.

I agree with you that aside from meta there's little reason to TR her here, and if you take the viewpoint that Pav is town then her actions here do feel scum-motivated.

I would argue that it's still on brand for that meta read considering I feel something's off with this version of a power wolf. She did it, and it worked early game, but after peeling more layers back, I can feel something different with it. It just feels riddled with intention.

I guess I see what you mean

[DragonEater70]

I kinda thought the claim at E-3 was towny

[DragonEater70]

I am leaning Kyouko + Hu Tao + Geraint, but i dont want to preassociate that deep just yet.

I'm thinking at this point the game is doomed. Mostly cause I'm not even sure who scum is at this point. But I'm thinking an Elim and vig should clear some things up I hope.

why are you thinking this game is doomed? it's Day 2. You have a Day 3 no matter what. So it's only doomed if Day 2 and Day 3 fades are absolutely doomed. If my vig shot doesn't go off, I think that's an extra day? so we have 3 elims to get off + mass claim tomorrow.


I dont understand doom and gloom mentality here.

2 elims left unless you vig correctly

If you don't vig at all we still only have 2 elims

[DragonEater70]

My thoughts are: Cw scumread me. If he's scum he just needs a town lurker to vote me. If he's town then scum just jumps on.

I'm assuming scum aren't 3 lurkers

you're worrying too much about the future and not enough about hitting scum today.

I do think that's probably towny of her - I think she's in the same position as me where we can see a lot of people being scum but can also see the same people being town and it feels whether we vote scum today or not is just completely up to chance

[DragonEater70]

Dragon can you unvote so I can pull my meta tomorrow? Don't have time tonight - I am probably very obviously town here but I need to find games where I tunneled as scum and as town for yall to compare

I can

UNVOTE:

I won't be voting anywhere else though for now

[DragonEater70]

@mod, can we please get a prod on Joyboy?

[DragonEater70]

High thought before I leave you: with the League of Lurkers in effect, securing a lim at all today could be difficult, let alone one that has no scum on-wagon

I dunno if that changes things for our present situation but it just struck me

*Falls into a black hole*

I think once we're sure of who we want to lim, we just quote gera/purple and they'll vote whoever we tell them

[DragonEater70]

My unvote is literally temporary until she either makes a good towncase for herself or doesn't

[DragonEater70]

My thoughts are: Cw scumread me. If he's scum he just needs a town lurker to vote me. If he's town then scum just jumps on.

I'm assuming scum aren't 3 lurkers

you're worrying too much about the future and not enough about hitting scum today.

I do think that's probably towny of her - I think she's in the same position as me where we can see a lot of people being scum but can also see the same people being town and it feels whether we vote scum today or not is

just completely up to chance

poor outlook imo. never up to chance once the role pm's are out.

You are right tbh

I just suck at mafia

[DragonEater70]

Gamma can read me I am safe

Unfortunately, in every world where you are town Gamma is scum

Also

I'd like to be able to say that I read your meta thing, but I didn't because I am freaking exhausted (and my philosophy is there's no point in trying to get anything AI out of wallposts when I'm tired), so I'll read it tomorrow at some point.

[DragonEater70]

I kinda thought the claim at E-3 was towny

I thought more than just Dragon said something like this which is why I thought there was revisioning going on but I must have imagined it - I know Dragon did see Laplacian as towny despite the claim at E-3 so I know he's not revisioning - could have sworn someone else said this too though after I made 1337:

Like the guy literally claimed at E-3 and was in panic mode for the majority of that push

Not sure what's revisioning, but Hu Tao said she agreed with my 1339 I think.

[DragonEater70]

Same

Goodnight!

[DragonEater70]

holy shit could flavor actually be conftown

this will crumble all my reads
I don't believe it yet though

lol cw is town

-2

?

btw I am currently skimming the last few pages and then I will read Kyouko's posts more in depth and also possibly comment on some posts by HPE that I definitely missed because I am skimming very quickly

So don't think me posting this means I'll forever ignore every post prior to 1535

[DragonEater70]

My current solve is Kyouko, CW, and one of Hu Tao/Dragon.

Geraint could slide in there if they’re scum in place of one of them, but I’m pretty happy with the other slots.

Most of Kyouko’s posts today were a lot of IioA, and there were conclusions made directed towards HPE.

I just think HPE fits the bill of impressionable town (not in a bad way) and takes the time to consider the cases that get presented.

Feels like they’ve just been on too many of the wagons outwardly, and i don’t think scum do it like that that often.

I'm telling you with 100% certainty that this is a wrong solve

I'm also pretty sure Gamma is scum from her catch up

[DragonEater70]

Okay there's too many pages for me to just skim everything quickly so I am going to say what I think with the caveat that I might change my mind after reading everything since last night properly:

This message is addressed to Flavor.

I am NOT, by any measure, a very good scum hunter. If somebody nominated me for Paragon of Mafia Hunters I'd laugh in their face.

BUT

I am VERY good at correctly finding town. In Love Child, I had a correct townblock of 6 people when there were 11 players alive - enough that if we just limmed everyone outside of it, it would have been auto-win. And it's important to note that Gamma wanted to add Hu Tao (scum) to it and I DID NOT agree because I had doubts on her. In Mini Normal 2317, I called the following people "locktown" / "hard town" at various stages of the game, and they were all town: Titus, Elements, Gamma, Naerys. (Admittedly I called Snivy locktown too but that was for like 2 minutes and I promptly changed my mind and went back to pushing him so it doesn't count). On the other hand the scum team hovered between nullscum and nulltown for the entire game.

Now my point being, Hu Tao is

TOWN

. Don't you fucking dare put her in a solve.

My other point being, I'm actually pretty sure Kyouko is town. Like really pretty sure. I'd like to not vote her today. I'd also like to not vote me today and I'd ALSO prefer to not vote cw today (but I am not really sure he's town). Yeah I know this goes against everything you believe, Flavor, but sometimes you gotta trust other people in the game of mafia. Unless you can provide me proof that you can read Kyouko extremely well or something, I am going to have to say that you need to "trust me bro" on this one. Do you know why I lost 2317? Not because I wasn't townreading town. Because I let people convince me that my (correct) townreads were not correct. And because I did not double down on these strong townreads and vote everyone who I wasn't TRing.

Now if you'll excuse me, let's vote scum (aka people I am not TRing).

VOTE: Gamma

[DragonEater70]

In that case I was indicating I think that post by cw feels hella forced and you townreading it was cringe

Huh

I thought the forcedness was towny

[DragonEater70]

If you’re town then you’re fucking dogshit at reading me

Are you sure? I locktowned you in both Love Child and Mini 2317

[DragonEater70]

and btw I think the reason 2317 was lost was mainly because the wagons that were put on scum were let slip through the towns’ fingers. I’m still honestly fucking livid about that D1.

Same

[DragonEater70]

I don’t necessarily think it.

I’m probably more likely to shoot DE than Tao, don’t worry.

YESSSS

[DragonEater70]

K if Flavor is shooting me I'm sheeping him on whoever he wants today

[DragonEater70]

Hu Tao scum

Is wrong

[DragonEater70]

If you’re town then you’re fucking dogshit at reading me

Are you sure? I locktowned you in both Love Child and Mini 2317

For reasons that clearly are not that good, based on what you’ve chosen to townread cw for

I am not really townreading cw

Also that's a really fucking bad fallacy

Like you just said I can't read you, Gamma, and when I try to prove I can, you try to show I can't read people in general by pointing out a totally unrelated read.

[DragonEater70]

My current solve is Kyouko, CW, and one of Hu Tao/Dragon.

Geraint could slide in there if they’re scum in place of one of them, but I’m pretty happy with the other slots.

Most of Kyouko’s posts today were a lot of IioA, and there were conclusions made directed towards HPE.

I just think HPE fits the bill of impressionable town (not in a bad way) and takes the time to consider the cases that get presented.

Feels like they’ve just been on too many of the wagons outwardly, and i don’t think scum do it like that that often.

I'm telling you with 100% certainty that this is a wrong solve

I'm also pretty sure Gamma is scum from her catch up

>:/

That's not a town!Gamma reaction to being scumread

[DragonEater70]

i have seen zero non meta reasons for Kyouko to be town.

I have exactly one reason for Kyouko to be town, but it's good enough

Kyouko is MILES out of her scumrange

[DragonEater70]

how many games have you played with Gamma?

Not counting the game you recently modded, I think 4 completed games? And I am pretty sure I correctly read her in every single one

[DragonEater70]

Dragon eater is saying Kyouko town, purple town, hu taown, meaning scum have to be in Gamma, HPE, CW, Geraint, Pavowski and im not really seeing a team in that I like too much. I'm town reading Pavowski and HPE.

Even if you do, why can't there be a team in those 5?

[DragonEater70]

This one thinks Dragon is

maybe

town but holy shit is this Gamma scumread contrived.

What's contrived about it? I didn't even explain it

[DragonEater70]

gamma/dragon/hu tao i could see if kyouku were to flip town

Gamma's read on dragon comes across as bussing because she even acknowledged that in the present reality anything other than kyouku is unlikely and the others are what they are. Also dragon scumleaning the gamma slot seems weak (and counter to what a lot of others did) since eliming that slot would have amounted to a pl.

My point is just that:
(a) Gamma and dragon are probably not v/v
(b) It's plausible that they're w/w
UNVOTE:
I'll review kyouku's ISO and the wagon but in the meantime I don't want to be a part of an elim
my motivation for this game is back

Wtf does me having a different opinion to everyone have to do with whether or not I am scum with Gamma

You are not making sense bruh

[DragonEater70]

Dragon eater is saying Kyouko town, purple town, hu taown, meaning scum have to be in Gamma, HPE, CW, Geraint, Pavowski and im not really seeing a team in that I like too much. I'm town reading Pavowski and HPE.

Even if you do, why can't there be a team in those 5?

Reiterating because apparently 1731 didn't get the point across:

THE ENTIRE SCUM TEAM IS INSIDE GAMMA/HPE/CW/GERA/PAV

Also Flavor, I am actually annoyed that you pushed through a lim 4 days before deadline when I wasn't even caught up or properly present in the thread so I could defend Kyouko. Like I get it, I don't expect you to lockscum Gamma just because I say she's scum, but if I tell you Kyouko is town you should at least freaking make an attempt to see my viewpoint and not go "I'm leaning away from Kyouko so that means she's probably scum"

This post was supposed to be a lot angrier but I had time to chill off in the last 48 hours.

[DragonEater70]

DragonEater up, then popcorn probs.

Nah

I'll claim last and I have a confirmable role.

[DragonEater70]

Gamma can claim first

[DragonEater70]

And I was wrong to doom and gloom yesterday. So I'll be sure to not do so in the future.

WDYM?

[DragonEater70]

Pretty much I thought we were gonna lose today. But I was wrong. I think we have a good shot to win still. So in future games I shouldnt just give up like that

Oh, understandable...

Last day phase was pretty

[DragonEater70]

I think Gamma should go first

In fact if it's up to me claim order should be something like Gamma > HPE > Gera > Pav > Purple > Hu Tao > Dragon

[DragonEater70]

VOTE: DragonEater

I’ll take it off when the claim comes and is confirmed.

Stop scumsiding Flavor

I'm already annoyed with yesterday's fade, are you actually seriously scumreading the only player that was NOT opportunistically jumping on any old town wagon yesterday?

[DragonEater70]

Switch Hu Tao and Pav, and I’m fine with Dragon going last

Okay let's go

[DragonEater70]

Cool so anyway

Gamma should claim

[DragonEater70]

Yeah, yall acting like we’re in a bad spot.

We’re in a far BETTER spot than yesterday, and acting the doom and gloom.

Kyouko death was great here.

Hmphhhh

[DragonEater70]

VOTE: Gamma

Goodnight!

[DragonEater70]

If Dragon is JK, and targeted me, they’re scum gambiting, no killing, by the way. I have a feeling it’s coming, i hope not, but yeah.

Oh no you found me out!

JK isn’t confirmable, though, in that regard, so I’m just being paranoid probably.

That is factually correct, but when I wrote that it was confirmable it was with the knowledge that I managed to outsmart scum and they shot my protection target, so to me it was very obvious that there was some protective. I completely forgot scum could ever NK

I don’t necessarily think it.

I’m probably more likely to shoot DE than Tao, don’t worry.

YESSSS

K if Flavor is shooting me I'm sheeping him on whoever he wants today

This was contrived. DE tried to make it out like I was shooting them, but all I said was I was more likely to shoot them than Hu Tao, but I had already said during the day that I wouldn’t be shooting Dragon based on their claim WIFOM, and I also said that I had chosen who I was going to Vig a long time before end of the day.

Kyouko wagon helped a lot.

This is also correct. I intentionally played this way (played dumb) because I wanted to make sure scum has zero doubt in their mind I was a 1-shot BP and doesn't roleblock me so I can pull off my genius maneuver of saving you (which worked btw).

Also, I think you asked somewhere why would I jail you if we hit Kyouko town which is "beneficial" for us? I played the entirety of Day 2 since you claimed around the plan of jailing you if we hit town. You saying I was conftown if Kyouko flipped scum didn't really help my paranoia of who you'd shoot after she flipped town.

And last thing - yes, my clever night play was good and gave us an extra lim, but that doesn't mean I can't be frustrated we didn't use that extra kill on scum!Gamma or scum!HPE, ESPECIALLY because right now you are leaning toward me being scum and I know limming Gamma yesterday and havong Kyo alive today would have meant a totally different gamestate where I don't have to worry about Flavor wanting to lim the JK that protected him last night.

Anyway, I'm a 2-shot JK and I was on Flavor both nights, I guess I was roleblocked on Night 1 which is part of why I had to do all that 1-shot BP posturing (and also why I did suspect for a slight second you were scum trying to lure out a CC from the vig, since you should have been blocked).

[DragonEater70]

NK as is "no kill"

[DragonEater70]

Kyouko’s team they were pushing on Day 1 was Lap, Dragon, and FL.

In a world where Dragon is town, that’s 3 incorrect pushes Kyouko had.

This alone makes Kyouko worth pushing to find out and see what happens and where the pressure was.

And yet, Dragon began defending the Kyouko slot harder, and I would say Dragon by the end of Day 2 was not a scum read potential for Kyouko.

Dragon also played in a way where it ‘looked’ like they were trying to defend Kyouko, but i consistently asked for more reasons other than meta, yet they try to complain about going there.
I had already specifically stated I wouldn’t be convinced by meta cases in that regard.

This is why I think Dragon’s manipulative there, and trying to shade and make it look like Kyouko was a bad push.

We’re in a GOOD spot right now, where we were going to take it as a win getting here and dealing with this in ELO.

Now we get an EXTRA day.

Amazing.

Also I am sorry I am not very good at towncasing people.

To me saying "x is MILES out of their scum range" (what I said about Kyo) is a pretty solid towncase. I could probably have tried to do (a bit) more but I was kinda depressed that day due to real life things, so yeah.

[DragonEater70]

Cool.

Dragon scum claims today.

That’s what I was hoping for.

I tried shooting HPE.

If I was scum I would've just changed my plan and claimed doc

[DragonEater70]

Flavor this is genuinely your worst town play this year by far. You keep pushing town for bullshit reasons. Yes, I COULD be scum gambitting. But why can't I just be town who did this? There's 0 reason I can't be.

[DragonEater70]

You are saying I should have prevented Kyo's lim and that I fake defended her. There's a freaking limit to how much I can achieve when the conftown, who also happens to be Flavor freaking Leaf, is working against me. You KNOW there's no way to stop the lims you want to haloen from happening, when you really want them to happen.

[DragonEater70]

Happen*

[DragonEater70]

So stop bullshitting about how I wanted to pocket you and failed, and fucking realize that I am trying to win this game for town DESPITE your anti-town antics.

We both know that the scum team is gamma/HPE + gera/pav/cw, so just STOP clowning. It's annoying.

[DragonEater70]

Flavor this is genuinely your worst town play this year by far. You keep pushing town for bullshit reasons. Yes, I COULD be scum gambitting. But why can't I just be town who did this? There's 0 reason I can't be.

You also have a tendency to look at things at surface level.

And?

[DragonEater70]

You are saying I should have prevented Kyo's lim and that I fake defended her. There's a freaking limit to how much I can achieve when the conftown, who also happens to be Flavor freaking Leaf, is working against me. You KNOW there's no way to stop the lims you want to haloen from happening, when you really want them to happen.

There’s plenty of ways.

Main one is giving me reasons.

I flip flop very easily imo

You do. Right now you flopped onto me because I trueclaimed after you literally had the same solve as me a minite ago. Doesn't help me.

Regarding giving you reasons, I did not have the ability to go through the game and find reasons Kyo was town. I am sorry that I didn't say "hey guys I'm not going to be here full blast today so please don't lim Kyo until I have more time", but I did not expect a lim to be pushed through 4 days before deadline.

[DragonEater70]

Scum is HPE/Geraint + 1 of Hu Tao/DE like most times here.

Then help me buss HPE.

[DragonEater70]

Flavor this is genuinely your worst town play this year by far. You keep pushing town for bullshit reasons. Yes, I COULD be scum gambitting. But why can't I just be town who did this? There's 0 reason I can't be.

You also have a tendency to look at things at surface level.

And?

You’re tunnel visioned right now

I am not tunneled

If anything I'm defensive

[DragonEater70]

You are saying I should have prevented Kyo's lim and that I fake defended her. There's a freaking limit to how much I can achieve when the conftown, who also happens to be Flavor freaking Leaf, is working against me. You KNOW there's no way to stop the lims you want to haloen from happening, when you really want them to happen.

There’s plenty of ways.

Main one is giving me reasons.

I flip flop very easily imo

You do. Right now you flopped onto me because I trueclaimed after you literally had the same solve as me a minite ago. Doesn't help me.

Regarding giving you reasons, I did not have the ability to go through the game and find reasons Kyo was town. I am sorry that I didn't say "hey guys I'm not going to be here full blast today so please don't lim Kyo until I have more time", but I did not expect a lim to be pushed through 4 days before deadline.

Then don’t be upset about Kyouko. That simple tbh

Then don't scumread me. That simple tbh

[DragonEater70]

If anything it was super beneficial because it brought this day phase.

Hu Tao your claims time

Fine

You do have a penchant for solving the game after VT flips so I am just gonna shut up abput it and let you do your magic.

[DragonEater70]

Scum is HPE/Geraint + 1 of Hu Tao/DE like most times here.

Nope.

[DragonEater70]

VOTE: HPE

[DragonEater70]

Flavor this is genuinely your worst town play this year by far. You keep pushing town for bullshit reasons. Yes, I COULD be scum gambitting. But why can't I just be town who did this? There's 0 reason I can't be.

You also have a tendency to look at things at surface level.

And?

You’re tunnel visioned right now

I am not tunneled

If anything I'm defensive

Not your typical tunnel vision type of thing.

You don’t look around just directly forward type

Not entirely sure what you mean

[DragonEater70]

Actually I think I get it

You are saying I'm not Flavor Leafing about how VT flips are good

[DragonEater70]

You can explain the theory behind it post game and I'll happily listen

Right now I wanna win this game

[DragonEater70]

Scum is HPE/Geraint + 1 of Hu Tao/DE like most times here.

Nope.

You know I say things I don’t mean in day chat to see where people go a lot right?

I’m a heavy reaction test player

Yes, I know that, but if you do a reaction tets you should expect people (e.g. me) to react.

[DragonEater70]

Sup

I'd be down to poke Purple a little but I am pretty sure they are town

I've played and modded for them a bunch.

[DragonEater70]

@Purple, do you agree with my reads or not really? Anything in particular you agree/don't agree with?

[DragonEater70]

As a reminder, I think Gamma and HPE are scum, and that the third scum is one of Geraint/Pavowski/cw

[DragonEater70]

@Purple, do you agree with my reads or not really? Anything in particular you agree/don't agree with?

Kinda? I don't agree with the way you townread yourself
Its makes more sense for you to be scum

Why does it make more sense I'm scum?

[DragonEater70]

So yeah, Hu Tao/Dragon/FL town core.

Let's gooooo

High five, sis!

[DragonEater70]

And ... you're TRing Dragon again. Jesus Christ you give me whiplash sometimes dude

My theory is that FL is incompletely unreliable in terms of reads atp and is only good for shooting (which who knows if that's even going to happen again) and, like he said, the way others played around the fact he was confirmed vig.

Yuck

[DragonEater70]

Do you even have a read on me HPE, or are you just saying this to discredit Flavor?

[DragonEater70]

Also do you have a read on Hu Tao?

[DragonEater70]

Huh? I feel I should know what the fruit thing is about, but I don't see how it's related or scummy?

And like, you said you kinda agree with my reads, so I assume you think at least one of HPE/Gamma is scum. Do you not think the way I confidently pushed them while defending Hu Tao and Kyo is similar to my play in my recent-ish town games in our group?

[DragonEater70]

Hmmm okay I think I understand what you mean. Not sure though why you're saying I could be an Apple Farmer (basically Friendly Neighbor) if you think I might be scum.

I dunno about Pav, I feel he's pretty towny but I think his towniness is not unfakable, meaning there's a possibility it's fake.

I don't want to vote him today, I think we can consider him after we flip 1-2 scum.

[DragonEater70]

Do you even have a read on me HPE, or are you just saying this to discredit Flavor?

Also do you have a read on Hu Tao?

This one's had you as solid town for a while, partly because its a little wary of jumping to conclusions about you and forming a bad scumread like it has in a past few games. HT is still null and considering the circumstances that makes her closer to a scumlean because actually not being able to read her is terrifying?

Lowkey gera/pav/HT scumteam seems viable but it doesn't wanna overlook slots like you and purple either.

Wait, when did you have a bad scumread of me? Weren't the only two games we played the ones Skygazer modded, on both of which we had opposite alignments?

Speaking of which, how do you feel HT's play here compares to Love Child?

[DragonEater70]

its played with atleast 4 of your various accounts atp so

Okay so turns out we've played in Fire and Ice and I guess we were both town. I just did a really good job of erasing that game from my memory (I think a lot of us did).

Has anyone in here played with me as scum btw?
Can people.recall what I am.like.as scum?

Nope. As far as I'm able to tell, you've never even rolled scum.

[DragonEater70]

Now that Gamma has educated me on the ways of properly using a spoiler tag:

Spoiler: Wagons

EOD 1 Wagon

Votecount 1.6

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 07:27:34).

Votecount

Laplacian (7)

- ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm, DragonEater70, Flavor Leaf

Joyboy (2)

- cw357, Hu Tao

cw357 (1)

- Joyboy

HighPrincessErinys (1)

- Laplacian

Not Voting (2)

- Purplemango, Thomith

MID D2 Wagon

Votecount 2.3

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 19:46:41).

Votecount

cw357 (3)

- cw357, HighPrincessErinys, Hu Tao

geraintm (1)

- Joyboy

Pavowski (1)

- ssbm_Kyouko

ssbm_Kyouko (2)

- Flavor Leaf, DragonEater70

Not Voting (4)

- geraintm, Pavowski, Purplemango

LATE D2 Wagon

Votecount 2.7

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 19:46:41).

Votecount

ssbm_Kyouko (4)

- Flavor Leaf, HighPrincessErinys, Hu Tao, cw357

HighPrincessErinys (1)

- ssbm_Kyouko

cw357 (1)

- Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (4)

- geraintm, Purplemango, DragonEater70, Pavowski

[/area]

EOD 2 Wagon

Votecount 2.10

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 19:46:41).

Votecount

ssbm_Kyouko (6)

- Flavor Leaf, HighPrincessErinys, Pavowski, Hu Tao, cw357, Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald (2)

- DragonEater70, ssbm_Kyouko

Not Voting (3)

- geraintm, Purplemango

On both elimination wagons: Pav, HPE, Flavor
On Lap wagon only: Gera, Dragon, +2 dead townies
On Kyouko wagon only: Hu Tao, CW, Gamma

The other wagon d1 was HPE: Dragon, Hu Tao, Flavor
The other wagon d2 was CW: Dragon, HPE, Hu Tao

Absolute speculation begins here.

Spoiler: Speculation and Vibes

Here are my bad wagonomics thoughts.

I really don't think Dragon/Hu Tao are paired here. They're both off the elimination wagon on the same alternate target before one of them gets on the lim wagon d1 and the other gets on d2. Hu Tao looks worse for my money given the move from CW to Kyouko (especially if CW turns up scum).

Is it weird that HPE is nearly wagoned d1 and ends up on the lim wagon both days? ehhh. D1 wagons are chaotic and fleeting. I still townvibe that one even though we're probably past the point where I should be reading based on feel

Gamma with the hammer d2 has the benefit of coming in and doing a thorough catch-up and then dropping the hammer, despite professing wants to vote elsewhere. Feels towny. I think the slot is towny on balance, too

Gera's vote may as well have been RVS, never votes d2
Purple never votes period
CW is what CW is, notably after facing down elim on d2 they join the yeet wagon even though they're pretty vocal in thinking kyo is town
These three slots have *got* to contain at least one scum. On effort and d2 happenings it could be CW but wouldn't surprise me even a little bit if it's in the others. Though I will reiterate what I've said earlier that if Purple is scum I don't think DE is). If these three by some twist of fate are scum together, then fuck this game. If they're all town, also fuck this game.

I think Dragon/Hu Tao has one scum (rather vote Hu, though from an information standpoint Dragon probably gives us more)

HPE/Gamma don't seem to affect each other the way Dragon/HT or Dragon/Purple do in my weird conjectures but process of elimination would tell me there's one here

tl;dr, and no, I am not betting on this:
1 in Gera,Purple,CW
1 in Dragon/Hu Tao
1 in Gamma/HPE

I wonder if the CW wagon yesterday was on the mark.

VOTE: CW

Nahhh I don't think anybody is going cw today

Let's kill the scumsters

Unless FL was right about Team Rocket in which case I'm fine with you bussing, but I still wanna kill HPE before we go for Meowth.

[DragonEater70]

So yeah, Hu Tao/Dragon/FL town core.

Let's gooooo

High five, sis!

@HT I'm still waiting for my high five.

[DragonEater70]

Now that Gamma has educated me on the ways of properly using a spoiler tag:

Spoiler: Wagons

EOD 1 Wagon

Votecount 1.6

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 07:27:34).

Votecount

Laplacian (7)

- ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm, DragonEater70, Flavor Leaf

Joyboy (2)

- cw357, Hu Tao

cw357 (1)

- Joyboy

HighPrincessErinys (1)

- Laplacian

Not Voting (2)

- Purplemango, Thomith

MID D2 Wagon

Votecount 2.3

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 19:46:41).

Votecount

cw357 (3)

- cw357, HighPrincessErinys, Hu Tao

geraintm (1)

- Joyboy

Pavowski (1)

- ssbm_Kyouko

ssbm_Kyouko (2)

- Flavor Leaf, DragonEater70

Not Voting (4)

- geraintm, Pavowski, Purplemango

LATE D2 Wagon

Votecount 2.7

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 19:46:41).

Votecount

ssbm_Kyouko (4)

- Flavor Leaf, HighPrincessErinys, Hu Tao, cw357

HighPrincessErinys (1)

- ssbm_Kyouko

cw357 (1)

- Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (4)

- geraintm, Purplemango, DragonEater70, Pavowski

[/area]

EOD 2 Wagon

Votecount 2.10

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 19:46:41).

Votecount

ssbm_Kyouko (6)

- Flavor Leaf, HighPrincessErinys, Pavowski, Hu Tao, cw357, Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald (2)

- DragonEater70, ssbm_Kyouko

Not Voting (3)

- geraintm, Purplemango

On both elimination wagons: Pav, HPE, Flavor
On Lap wagon only: Gera, Dragon, +2 dead townies
On Kyouko wagon only: Hu Tao, CW, Gamma

The other wagon d1 was HPE: Dragon, Hu Tao, Flavor
The other wagon d2 was CW: Dragon, HPE, Hu Tao

Absolute speculation begins here.

Spoiler: Speculation and Vibes

Here are my bad wagonomics thoughts.

I really don't think Dragon/Hu Tao are paired here. They're both off the elimination wagon on the same alternate target before one of them gets on the lim wagon d1 and the other gets on d2. Hu Tao looks worse for my money given the move from CW to Kyouko (especially if CW turns up scum).

Is it weird that HPE is nearly wagoned d1 and ends up on the lim wagon both days? ehhh. D1 wagons are chaotic and fleeting. I still townvibe that one even though we're probably past the point where I should be reading based on feel

Gamma with the hammer d2 has the benefit of coming in and doing a thorough catch-up and then dropping the hammer, despite professing wants to vote elsewhere. Feels towny. I think the slot is towny on balance, too

Gera's vote may as well have been RVS, never votes d2
Purple never votes period
CW is what CW is, notably after facing down elim on d2 they join the yeet wagon even though they're pretty vocal in thinking kyo is town
These three slots have *got* to contain at least one scum. On effort and d2 happenings it could be CW but wouldn't surprise me even a little bit if it's in the others. Though I will reiterate what I've said earlier that if Purple is scum I don't think DE is). If these three by some twist of fate are scum together, then fuck this game. If they're all town, also fuck this game.

I think Dragon/Hu Tao has one scum (rather vote Hu, though from an information standpoint Dragon probably gives us more)

HPE/Gamma don't seem to affect each other the way Dragon/HT or Dragon/Purple do in my weird conjectures but process of elimination would tell me there's one here

tl;dr, and no, I am not betting on this:
1 in Gera,Purple,CW
1 in Dragon/Hu Tao
1 in Gamma/HPE

I wonder if the CW wagon yesterday was on the mark.

VOTE: CW

Nahhh I don't think anybody is going cw today

Let's kill the scumsters

Unless FL was right about Team Rocket in which case I'm fine with you bussing, but I still wanna kill HPE before we go for Meowth.

I thought I was Meowth in that exercise

Wait what

I'm really confused by how that would work

[DragonEater70]

So yeah, Hu Tao/Dragon/FL town core.

Let's gooooo

High five, sis!

@HT I'm still waiting for my high five.

🖐

[DragonEater70]

its played with atleast 4 of your various accounts atp so

Okay so turns out we've played in Fire and Ice and I guess we were both town. I just did a really good job of erasing that game from my memory (I think a lot of us did).

Has anyone in here played with me as scum btw?
Can people.recall what I am.like.as scum?

Nope. As far as I'm able to tell, you've never even rolled scum.

It's been a while. I am massively panicky as scum, joining wagons for terrible reasons. I am really obvious as scum

Link to scumgame?

[DragonEater70]

Imagine HPE, Pavowski, and CW as Team Rocket this game….

I don’t think i need to tell you who’s who.

Your head is so far up your own ass your eyes are sticking out your nose atp
HPE and cw are not scum together EVER

So here’s my conclusion

When i claimed my confirmed Vig shot, I became a scary IC. This made every slot have to fear for the vig shot and not able to push me.

It then became a game of town trying to get me to town read them and scum trying to prevent that.

That maybe explains why day 2 felt so interminable, lotta eggshell walking

I still don't see the Hu Tao town read, but to be 100% honest, I kinda sorta tuned out the back end of d2 and was hoping for some NK analysis. I probably need to read back a bit but good gravy that's a lot of reading. Probably rather look back at the wagons, esp d2

And ... you're TRing Dragon again. Jesus Christ you give me whiplash sometimes dude

VOTE: Pavowski
This is a scum post. Especially the last part!

If both of these posts are true, and Geraint's self meta is true (I currently do not lean either way on the self meta FWIW), then scumteam is Pav + HPE (or cw I guess) + ???

Like idk who would be the third in that scenario

So my question to you Gamma is why do you think HPE and cw are never scum together?

Half-pedit: Also Flavor makes a good point of Gamma/HPE/Pav.

[DragonEater70]

I had one read that ended being wrong, and I did it to get certain on the flip there.

It’s the IC gameplay, is what it is. Gotta take some L’s to figure things out.

Imo, HPE’s over exaggerating to make it look like I have poor reads, but on flips alone, i had Lap correct too.

If anything, Kyouko had the worst reads this game prior to the end, and thus died for it.

And end of the day, took 6 people to vote so 5 other slots.

Yeah, objectively Kyo had the worst reads on Day 1. If Gamma/Pav is scum/scum then she did improve a lot on Day 2.

It’s also pretty clear that HPE more worried about discrediting than looking for scum here.

This one is absolutely calling you out for the shit reads all game here regardless of alignment lol.

This one wouldn't even have to think about discrediting you because it feels like you're doing all that yourself, if the way others seem to think about your reads is anything to go off of. If you weren't confirmed this one would BoP you where you stand.

It’s also pretty clear that HPE more worried about discrediting than looking for scum here.

This one is absolutely calling you out for the shit reads all game here regardless of alignment lol.

Like which ones specifically?

You ADORE completely flipping your read on Dragon, Lap was "obvtown" that you hammered yourself under the pretense of "well i always kill vt claims d1 ", you somehow think this one would ever be scum with cw (LOL), Gamma suddenly shot down to second-worst after a seemingly positive reception of her and you started on the idea she was somehow scum trying to save Kyouko... These two posts right near eachother are hilarious because now HT is town and Gamma is... also town? But you also said that about Gamma not so long after your bender about Gamma scum. And then you also not too long after that you reasserted your readlist with Gamma and HT near the bottom. It's just... hilarious, really. There's alot of examples to draw on.

You've said yourself that you flip-flop easily, and this one agrees, and also thinks that's like a terrible quality to have as a vigilante LMAO. Your reads can radically shift from post-to-post and you can also be incredibly entrenched in one particular read and neither scum

or town

has any reason to believe you're going to be accurate with your gun or your vote. If you were not vigilante, this one would BoP you where you stand.

Honestly none of this is convincing evidence Flavor has bad reads (including my own flame post). It just shows he flip-flops a lot, which he kinda always does. But his flip-flopping ends up correct more often than not, like his current towncore for instance.

But regardless, what were you even trying to achieve with all this except one huge discredit?

[DragonEater70]

ngl, geraint's been making town pings for me. whether they're doing anything or not, they're being genuine with what they're saying, and i believe that they believe what they're saying. So I think it's possible Geraint is town here

HPE chose Geraint slot, and frankly, it looks like a bus, but i think that could be on purpose in an HPE scum/Geraint town world. HPE knows they're going out today, like you can kind of feel it from that one, they have to be setting up.

Gamma and Pav both looking to setup split wagons/options that seem nice.

Hu Tao is getting pushed as mysterious, but Hu Tao's done a lot this game action wise. I've just landed on town. If Hu Tao ends up being scum, I get to just blame Dragon, so easy easy now.

I'll fully accept responsibility if Hu Tao is scum, but she ain't.

[DragonEater70]

At the risk of bringing back painful memories, he did the same thing in Flavorless Hell as town.

What I find unusual is that this game he also lurked Day 2, and I don't think he's really made an effort to sort people based on either D1 or D2 (analysing the aftermath of these being Gera's usual goal in sheeping the longest wagon)

[DragonEater70]

I think yeeting HPE and vigging Gera/Pav probably won't go too wrong.

[DragonEater70]

Is Gera openwolfing or does he normally not care about the game as town?

[DragonEater70]

Gamma can you hammer your buddy please

[DragonEater70]

How did HPE react to the D1 wagon?

Gamma can you hammer your buddy please

I'm also extending the offer to Geraint

[DragonEater70]

I take it you think HPE is town?

Fine then I'll ask Pav to bus instead.

@Pav if you bus HPE you can be both Jessie and Meowth simultaneously. AND James to top it of. In fact you can also be Mewtwo because I'm feeling generous today

[DragonEater70]

Also I guess technically it's not a hammer just yet.

One second.

HPE probably the best choice, and its kinda make sense

Hey Purple, can you E-1 so Gamma/Pav/Geraint can hammer?

[DragonEater70]

You snooze you lose, or so I've heard.

[DragonEater70]

Also Flavor and I voted for Laplacian who we were

pretty sure

was town, and nobody batted an eye.

[DragonEater70]

Purple, are you scum or nah?

[DragonEater70]

If you were scum would you claim anything but VT?

[DragonEater70]

Pav are upset because you didn't get to bus your partner?

[DragonEater70]

Meanwhile side-eye for the avatar change Dragon, I thought Not_Mafia somehow crashed our game here

I Blame Katsuki (though I doubt you know who that is): viewtopic.php?p=14035257#p14035257

I don't get to be Meowth tho, and that's a bummer

That is indeed a bummer.

[DragonEater70]

lol, I got jailed again.

Good 2-shot fake claim

You're making me blush

But yeah, scum got super trolled.

[DragonEater70]

I'll be back later

[DragonEater70]

Hu Tao beautiful voice won me over.

Yes! The Hu Tao/Dragon Team (we really need to find a better team name) wins the day yet again!

Also it would be SO FUNNY if we were the scum team and basically mega powerwolfed, but we aren't.

[DragonEater70]

Dragon eater is saying Kyouko town, purple town, hu taown, meaning scum have to be in Gamma, HPE, CW, Geraint, Pavowski and im not really seeing a team in that I like too much. I'm town reading Pavowski and HPE.

Even if you do, why can't there be a team in those 5?

Reiterating because apparently 1731 didn't get the point across:

THE ENTIRE SCUM TEAM IS INSIDE GAMMA/

HPE

/CW/GERA/PAV

One down, two to go.

VOTE: Pavowski

[DragonEater70]

Not if we just hit scum

I do think Purple is probably scum here.

Normally, lurker townies get townier by posting more late game, Geraint kinda did, but that could have been a ploy.

But purple got way scummier yesterday, and that might be new scum.

Can you be more specific about where?
I tried to re-read things I said, but it's not really clear to me what's more scum than town in this (which makes sense because I'm the one who said them)
Or is it a general feeling/something like that

Who do you think Flavor should be suspecting right now?

[DragonEater70]

if you think they're scum, look for the 3rd one please.

Okay, I'll do that this evening because I'm too tired to go through ISOs and pages right now.

[DragonEater70]

I know, I am not in the "let's end the day on Pav" phase, I am just voting there to see how people react.

[DragonEater70]

Reasons behind which part?

And I wasn't asking who is Flavor suspecting, I was asking who they should suspect (who you think it makes sense for them to suspect).

[DragonEater70]

Probably later, not really feeling up to play mafia today

[DragonEater70]

I think Dragon’s play is like objectively the one that looks most like scum

Wrong. You said yourself, playing D1 like that is extremely bold for scum. I voted HPE yesterday and never unvoted once even when you considered alternatives. That's not how scum play.

I called the gambit out BEFORE he even claimed the role.

Which proves you're wrong. I am not stupid enough to see you call a gambit and double down on it as scum.

If I were scum, I would just nightkill + roleblock you last night and then play like I'm conftown based on how I was in your towncore yesterday. If you think I'm scum JK for some reason (who tf puts a scum JK in a simple though?) so can't block and kill, you're still wrong because it was pretty clear that you TR me going into night so I could just kill you without blocking. I don't need you around to flip flop on me as scum. I do need you around to flip flop on everyone and settle on scum as town, though.



Also holy shit 7 notifications by FL, what did I do to become so popular?

[DragonEater70]

I do agree with you that cop + vig + JK is hella loaded though so I can't blame you for suspecting me to some degree, but as I said I'm not playing like scum. I literally narrowed my PoE to like Gamma/Pav/Gera, and I don't even think I'm ever voting Gera today. Scum likes big PoE. How's that scumplay.

[DragonEater70]

Flavor just went hyperfization mode on the thread

Good for him

I'm going to go to work soon so I'll leave you all now, hopefully he de-fixates by the time I'm back.

[DragonEater70]

I’m locked in. This pop in confirms it for me

You know, I was planning to apologize to you for flaming you earlier and saying this game was your worst town play of 2023.

I don't think I will.

If you wanna flip a PR that prevented two night kills, and can get a confirmed clear if we flip a roleblocker, and who has also found scum D1 but got derailed, resisted a wagon on town Day 2 despite your powertunnel, and was locked on scum Day 3 and made sure it was pushed through, I am not going to pretend that I think I played bad here. It's 100% on you.

[DragonEater70]

I'm not going to self-vote here though because self-voting as a PR is really stupid and I still think flipping Pav or Gamma would be so much better.